# Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team

The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is a group of experts from Imperial College London studying the COVID-19 pandemic and informing the government of the United Kingdom, and governments and public health agencies around the world. The team comprises scientists from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, the Jameel Institute, the Imperial College Business School and the Department of Mathematics. The Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team is led by Professor Neil Ferguson, Director of the Jameel Institute and MRC GIDA.
On 16 March 2020 the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team produced a research forecast of various scenarios for spread of the disease in the United Kingdom and the United States. Without any mitigation their forecast showed local health care capabilities vastly overwhelmed by the epidemic wave. Periodic cycles of quarantine followed by softer social distancing were recommended, with quarantines in effect two-thirds of the time. On 30 March, a study on 11 European countries was published. It provided estimates of the situation as of 28 March (observed and modelised with CovidSim), and projections for 31 March given current expectations, no action, and the difference. It also provided a list of government policies and their respective absolute dates. As of 2 May 2021, the Imperial College COVID-19 Response Team has produced 43 reports.

## Reports

COVID-19 reports :
| Rank | Date | Title |
| 43 | 2021-03-24 | Quantifying the impact of vaccine hesitancy in prolonging the need for Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions to control the COVID-19 pandemic |
| 42 | 2020-12-31 | Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data |
| 41 | 2020-12-22 | The 2020 SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in England: key epidemiological drivers and impact of interventions |
| 40 | 2020-12-10 | Optimal scheduling rules for elective care to minimize years of life lost during the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: an application to England |
| 39 | 2020-12-01 | Characterising COVID-19 epidemic dynamics and mortality under-ascertainment in Khartoum, Sudan |
| 38 | 2020-11-27 | SARS-CoV-2 setting-specific transmission rates: a systematic review and meta-analysis |
| 37 | 2020-11-25 | Children’s role in the COVID-19 pandemic: as systematic review of susceptibility, severity, and transmissibility |
| 36 | 2020-11-16 | Modelling ICU capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three western European countries |
| 35 | 2020-11-16 | How can we keep schools and universities open? Differentiating closures by economic sector to optimize social and economic activity while containing SARS-CoV-2 transmission |
| 34 | 2020-10-29 | Infection Fatality Ratio Estimates from Seroprevalence |
| 33 | 2020-09-25 | Modelling the allocation and impact of a COVID-19 vaccine |
| 32 | 2020-09-17 | Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States |
| 31 | 2020-09-15 | Estimating under-ascertainment of COVID-19 mortality: an analysis of novel data sources to provide insight into COVID-19 dynamics in Damascus, Syria |
| 30 | 2020-07-03 | The COVID-19 epidemic trends and control measures in mainland China |
| 29 | 2020-07-01 | The impact of the COVID-19 epidemic on all-cause attendances to emergency departments in two large London hospitals: an observational study |
| 28 | 2020-06-18 | "Excess non-COVID-19 deaths in England and Wales between 29th February and 5th June 2020" |
| 27 | 2020-06-15 | Adapting hospital capacity to meet changing demands during the COVID-19 pandemic |
| 26 | 2020-06-08 | Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission |
| 25 | 2020-05-29 | Response to COVID-19 in South Korea and implications for lifting stringent interventions |
| 24 | 2020-05-29 | Anonymised & aggregated crowd level mobility data from mobile phones suggests initial compliance with COVID19 social distancing interventions was high & geographically consistent across UK |
| 23 | 2020-05-21 | State-level tracking of COVID-19 in the United States |
| 22 | 2020-05-12 | Equity in response to the COVID-19 pandemic: an assessment of the direct and indirect impacts on disadvantaged and vulnerable populations in low- and lower middle-income countries |
| 21 | 2020-05-08 | Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Brazil |
| 20 | 2020-05-04 | Using mobility to estimate the transmission intensity of COVID-19 in Italy: A subnational analysis with future scenarios |
| 19 | 2020-05-01 | The Potential Impact of the COVID-19 Epidemic on HIV, TB and Malaria in Low- and Middle-Income Countries |
| 18 | 2020-05-01 | The potential public health impact of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa |
| 17 | 2020-04-29 | Clinical characteristics and predictors of outcomes of hospitalised patients with COVID-19 in a London NHS Trust: a retrospective cohort study |
| 16 | 2020-04-23 | Role of testing in COVID-19 control |
| The report estimates COVID-19 testing's impact as reducing transmission by 25~33% from populations tested, but also allowing early release from quarantines and creation of Immunity passport based on antibody tests. Tests face technical, legal, and ethical challenges. Tests while helping are complementary to other more potent actions such as self-isolation when symptoms arises, contact tracing and quarantines. |||
| 15 | 2020-04-17 | Strengthening hospital capacity for the COVID-19 pandemic |
| Reports presents the Jameel Institute pandemic planner "a hospital planning tool to calculate how much capacity in terms of beds, staff and ventilators is obtained by implementing healthcare provision interventions affecting the management of patient care in hospitals". |||
| 14 | 2020-04-03 | Online Community Involvement in COVID-19 Research & Outbreak Response: Early Insights from a UK Perspective |
| 13 | 2020-03-30 | Estimating the number of infections and the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 in 11 European countries |
| 12 | 2020-03-26 | The global impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression |
| 11 | 2020-03-24 | Evidence of initial success for China exiting COVID-19 social distancing policy after achieving containment |
| 10 | 2020-03-20 | Public response to UK Government recommendations on COVID-19: population survey, 17–18 March 2020 |
| 9 | 2020-03-16 | Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) to reduce COVID-19 mortality and healthcare demand |
| This report made an informed estimate of impact for both UK and the US, according to different strategies. The dire impact expressed helped convert the Johnson government from laisser-faire to mitigative strategies. |||
| 8 | 2020-03-11 | Symptom progression of COVID-19 |
| 7 | 2020-03-09 | Estimating infection prevalence in Wuhan City from repatriation flights |
| 6 | 2020-02-21 | Relative sensitivity of international surveillance |
| 5 | 2020-02-15 | Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 |
| 4 | 2020-02-10 | Severity of 2019 novel coronavirus (nCoV) |
| 3 | 2020-01-25 | Transmissibility of 2019-nCoV |
| 2 | 2020-01-22 | Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China |
| 1 | 2020-01-17 | Estimating the potential total number of novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cases in Wuhan City, China |

## Estimates
### 11 European countries estimates on 28 March 2020

Population infected by country :
| | | ICCRT's model projection for 28 March | ICCRT's model projection for 28 March | ICCRT's model projection for 28 March | WHO lab-confirmed 29 March | WHO lab-confirmed 29 March |
| Country | Population | Infected (95% range) | Infected (mean %) | Cases (est.) | Cases | Detected (% of pop.) |
| Austria | 8,999,973 | 0.36%–3.1% | 1.1% | 99000 | 8291 | 0.09% |
| Belgium | 11,579,502 | 1.3%–9.7% | 3.7% | 428400 | 9134 | 0.08% |
| Denmark | 5,785,741 | 0.40%–3.1% | 1.1% | 63600 | 2201 | 0.04% |
| France | 65,227,357 | 1.1%–7.4% | 3.0% | 1956800 | 37145 | 0.06% |
| Germany | 83,792,987 | 0.28%–1.8% | 0.72% | 603300 | 52547 | 0.06% |
| Italy | 60,496,082 | 3.2%–26% | 9.8% | 5928600 | 92472 | 0.15% |
| Norway | 5,407,670 | 0.09%–1.2% | 0.41% | 22200 | 3845 | 0.07% |
| Spain | 46,767,543 | 3.7%–41% | 15% | 7015100 | 72248 | 0.15% |
| Sweden | 10,081,948 | 0.85%–8.4% | 3.1% | 312500 | 3447 | 0.03% |
| Switzerland | 8,637,694 | 1.3%–7.6% | 3.2% | 276400 | 13152 | 0.15% |
| United Kingdom | 67,803,450 | 1.2%–5.4% | 2.7% | 1830700 | 17093 | 0.03% |
| Note: WHO reporting laboratory-confirmed cases on 29 March, 10am Central European Time. |||||||

### World estimates for 3 strategies

Estimated impact of suppression strategies over 250 days for 3 different strategies. :
| | Unmitigated Scenario | Unmitigated Scenario | Suppression at 0.2 deaths/100,000/week | Suppression at 0.2 deaths/100,000/week | Suppression at 1.6 deaths/100,000/week | Suppression at 1.6 deaths/100,000/week |
| | Infections | Deaths | Infections | Deaths | Infections | Deaths |
| East Asia & Pacific | 2,117,131,000 | 15,303,000 | 92,544,000 | 442,000 | 632,619,000 | 3,315,000 |
| Europe & Central Asia | 801,770,000 | 7,276,000 | 61,578,000 | 279,000 | 257,706,000 | 1,397,000 |
| Latin America & Caribbean | 566,993,000 | 3,194,000 | 45,346,000 | 158,000 | 186,595,000 | 729,000 |
| Middle East & North Africa | 419,138,000 | 1,700,000 | 30,459,000 | 113,000 | 152,262,000 | 594,000 |
| North America | 326,079,000 | 2,981,000 | 17,730,000 | 92,000 | 90,529,000 | 520,000 |
| South Asia | 1,737,766,000 | 7,687,000 | 111,703,000 | 475,000 | 629,164,000 | 2,693,000 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa | 1,044,858,000 | 2,483,000 | 110,164,000 | 298,000 | 454,968,000 | 1,204,000 |
| Total | 7,013,734,000 | 40,624,000 | 469,523,000 | 1,858,000 | 2,403,843,000 | 10,452,000 |