# Opinion polling for the 2017 New Zealand general election

"none" is preferred when the title is sufficiently descriptive; see [[WP:SDNONE]]
Various organisations commissioned opinion polls for the 2017 New Zealand general election during the term of the 51st New Zealand Parliament (2014–2017). Roy Morgan Research polled monthly, with MediaWorks New Zealand (3 News/Newshub Reid Research) and Television New Zealand (One News Colmar Brunton) polling less frequently. The last The New Zealand Herald (Herald Digipoll) was in December 2015, and Fairfax Media (Fairfax Media Ipsos) discontinued their poll after the 2014 election. The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varied by organisation and date, but were typically 800–1000 participants with a margin of error of just over 3%.
The previous Parliament was elected on Saturday 20 September 2014. The 2017 general election was held on Saturday 23 September 2017.

## Party vote and key events

Refusals are generally excluded from the party vote percentages, while question wording and the treatment of "don't know" responses and those not intending to vote may vary between survey organisations.

### Graphical summary

The first graph below shows trend lines averaged across all polls for parties that received 5.0% or more of the party vote at the 2014 election. The second graph shows parties that received between 1.0% and 4.9% of the party vote or won an electorate seat at the 2014 election.

### Internal polls

These polls are typically unpublished and are used internally for Labour (UMR) and National (Curia). Although these polls are sometimes leaked or partially leaked, their details are not publicly available for viewing and scrutinising. Because not all of their polls are made public, it is likely that those which are released are cherry-picked and therefore may not truly indicate ongoing trends.

## Preferred prime minister
### Individual polls

| Poll | Date | Bill English | Jacinda Ardern | Winston Peters | James Shaw | Hone Harawira | Gareth Morgan | Peter Dunne | Metiria Turei | Andrew Little | John Key |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 8–21 Dec 2014 | – | 1.7 | – | – | – | – | – | – | 13.6 | 65 |
| 3 News-Reid Research | 20–28 Jan 2015 | 0.3 | – | 7.6 | – | – | – | – | – | 9.8 | 44.0 |
| One News-Colmar Brunton | 14–18 Feb 2015 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 7.0 | – | 0.4 | – | – | 1.1 | 12.0 | 41.0 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 17–26 Apr 2015 | – | – | 12 | – | – | – | – | – | 13.9 | 64.6 |
| 3 News Reid Research | 21–27 May 2015 | 0.6 | – | 11.2 | – | – | – | – | – | 11.6 | 39.4 |
| 3 News Reid Research | 15–22 Jul 2015 | 0.2 | – | 11.3 | 0.2 | – | – | – | – | 10.2 | 38.3 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 14–24 Aug 2015 | – | 3.9 | 11.6 | 0.6 | – | – | – | 0.9 | 13.3 | 63.7 |
| 3 News Reid Research | 8–16 Sep 2015 | 0.3 | 3.5 | 8.6 | 0.2 | – | – | 0.1 | – | 10.8 | 39.5 |
| 3 News Reid Research | 9–17 Nov 2015 | 0.7 | 4.2 | 9.3 | – | – | – | 0.1 | – | 10.4 | 38.3 |
| Herald-DigiPoll | 4–14 Dec 2015 | – | 2.8 | 7.9 | – | – | – | – | – | 16.2 | 65.2 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 2–6 Apr 2016 | 0.9 | 2 | 10 | 0.4 | – | – | – | – | 7 | 39 |
| Newshub Reid Research | 12–22 May 2016 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 12.1 | 0.5 | – | – | – | – | 8.9 | 36.7 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 28 May – 2 Jun 2016 | 0.4 | 1 | 12 | 0.4 | – | – | – | – | 7 | 39 |
| Newshub Reid Research | 22 Jul – 3 Aug 2016 | 0.3 | 2.9 | 10.9 | 0.9 | – | 0.3 | – | 1 | 10.5 | 36.7 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 3–7 Sep 2016 | – | 1 | 11 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | 10 | 38 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 12–23 Nov 2016 | – | 1 | 8 | 0.3 | – | 0.1 | 0.3 | 1 | 8 | 36 |
| 12 Dec 2016 – Bill English replaces John Key as Prime Minister of New Zealand and Leader of the National Party. ||||||||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 11–15 Feb 2017 | 31 | 4 | 8 | 0.3 | – | 0.1 | – | 2 | 7 | 2 |
| Newshub Reid Research | 10–19 Mar 2017 | 25 | 10.5 | 8.9 | – | – | 0.1 | – | 1 | 8.3 | 5.9 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 18–22 Mar 2017 | 26 | 9 | 9 | 0.5 | 0.3 | – | 0.2 | 0.4 | 7 | 2 |
| Listener: Bauer Media Insights | 19–24 May 2017 | 39 | 16 | 9 | 2 | – | 2 | – | 3 | 13 | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 21–31 May 2017 | 29 | 6 | 7 | 0.4 | – | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 8 | 2 |
| Newshub Reid Research | 2–12 Jun 2017 | 26.2 | 6.6 | 9.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 7 | 5.9 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 1–5 Jul 2017 | 26 | 6 | 11 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | – | 0.2 | 5 | 1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 22–27 Jul 2017 | 28 | 6 | 10 | 0.2 | – | 0.3 | 0.2 | 1 | 6 | 1 |
| Newshub Reid Research | 20–28 Jul 2017 | 25.8 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 1.6 | 7.1 | 6 |
| 1 Aug 2017 – Jacinda Ardern replaces Andrew Little as Leader of the Opposition and Leader of the Labour Party. ||||||||||||
| Newshub Reid Research | 2–8 Aug 2017 | 27.7 | 26.3 | 10 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.6 | – | 0.8 | 0.9 | 4.9 |
| 9 Aug 2017 – Metiria Turei resigns as co-leader of the Green Party. ||||||||||||
| One News Colmar Brunton | 12–16 Aug 2017 | 30 | 30 | 7 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.7 | – | – | – | 0.5 |
| 21–23 Aug 2017 – Peter Dunne retires as leader of United Future and is replaced by Damian Light. ||||||||||||
| Newshub Reid Research | 22–30 Aug 2017 | 30.1 | 29.9 | 6.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 4.6 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 26–30 Aug 2017 | 33 | 34 | 4 | 0.4 | – | 0.4 | – | 0.8 | – | – |
| Listener: Bauer Media Insights | 1–5 Sep 2017 | 36 | 46 | 6 | 1 | – | 1 | – | – | – | – |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 2–6 Sep 2017 | 31 | 35 | 5 | 1 | 0.1 | 0.5 | – | – | 0.1 | 0.7 |
| Newsroom: SSI | 4–6 Sep 2017 | 31 | 45 | 11 | – | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| Newshub Reid Research | 6–11 Sep 2017 | 33.1 | 31.7 | 6.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 4.1 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 9–13 Sep 2017 | 32 | 34 | 5 | 0.3 | – | 0.3 | – | 0.2 | – | 0.6 |
| Newshub Reid Research | 13–20 Sep 2017 | 34.7 | 29.6 | 7.1 | 0.6 | – | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 3.6 |
| One News Colmar Brunton | 15–19 Sep 2017 | 37 | 31 | 6 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | – | 0.1 | – | 0.7 |
| Poll | Date | Bill English | Jacinda Ardern | Winston Peters | James Shaw | Hone Harawira | Gareth Morgan | Peter Dunne | Metiria Turei | Andrew Little | John Key |

## Electorate polling
### Ōhāriu
#### Party vote

| Poll | Date | National | Labour | Green | NZ First | TOP | United Future | Māori | ACT |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 50.23 | 23.42 | 15.01 | 4.76 | —* | 0.73 | 0.57 | 0.67 |
| Q+A Colmar Brunton | 5 – 9 Aug 2017 | 46 | 35 | 12 | 4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 |
* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

#### Candidate vote

| Poll | Date | Labour Greg O'Connor | United Future Peter Dunne | National Brett Hudson | Green Tane Woodley | TOP Jessica Hammond Doube | ACT Andie Moore | Labour Ginny Andersen | ACT Sean Fitzpatrick |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | — | 36.23 | 16.34 | 7.38 | —* | — | 34.34 | 0.55 |
| 14 Feb 2017 – Green Party choose not to stand a candidate to help Labour candidate Greg O'Connor defeat Peter Dunne. ||||||||||
| Q+A Colmar Brunton | 5 – 9 August 2017 | 48 | 34 | 14 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| 21 Aug 2017 – Ōhāriu Incumbent Peter Dunne (leader of United Future) announces that he will now be retiring from politics. 23 Aug 2017 – United Future stand Bale Nadakuitavuki as a candidate and Green Party reinstate Tane Woodley as a candidate. ||||||||||
* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

### Waiariki
#### Party vote

| Poll | Date | Labour | Māori | NZ First | National | Green |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 38.37 | 21.79 | 12.54 | 5.00 | 7.98 |
| Community Engagement Ltd | 19 – 22 July 2017 | 19.4 | 18.9 | 25.7 | 13.4 | 12.1 |
| Maori TV-Reid Research | July – 3 September 2017 | 49.6 | 26.5 | 10.2 | 5.6 | 4.8 |

#### Candidate vote

| Poll | Date | Māori Te Ururoa Flavell | Labour Tāmati Coffey | Labour Rawiri Waititi | Mana Annette Sykes |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 43.42 | — | 26.06 | 24.48 |
| 26 Aug 2016 – Rawiri Waititi cuts allegiances with Labour after being inspired by the Māori King to encourage Mana and Māori parties to win all Māori electorates by working together. 07 Oct 2016 – Tāmati Coffey is announced as Labour candidate for Waiariki electorate. Coffey ran for Rotorua electorate in 2014 gaining 33.18% of the vote against Todd McClay who won with 54.97% of the vote. 20 Feb 2017 – Mana begin a memorandum of understanding with the Māori Party to not contest in any electorates where Māori Party have candidates, in an attempt to win back the Māori electorates from Labour. ||||||
| Community Engagement Ltd | 19 – 22 July 2017 | 31.6 | 30.1 | — | — |
| Maori TV-Reid Research | July – 3 September 2017 | 60.1 | 39.9 | — | — |

### The Māori roll (all 7 electorates)

| Poll | Date | Labour | Māori | NZ First | National | Green | Mana | TOP |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 41.22 | 14.05 | 12.98 | 7.93 | 11.17 | 10.22 | N/A* |
| Māori TV, Reid Research Poll | 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 | 46.5 | 17.5 | 13.8 | 9.5 | 9.0 | 1.8 | 1.5 |
* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

### Whangarei
#### Party vote

| Poll | Date | National | Labour | NZ First | Green | Māori | ACT | TOP |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 50.08 | 17.80 | 13.36 | 9.77 | 0.53 | 0.55 | N/A* |
| 30 Jun 2017 – Shane Jones is confirmed as the New Zealand First candidate in Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975). |||||||||
| Q+A Colmar Brunton | 19 – 22 Aug 2017 | 41 | 37 | 16 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
* The Opportunities Party did not exist until 2016.

#### Candidate vote

| Poll | Date | National Shane Reti | NZ First Shane Jones | Labour Tony Savage | Green Ash Holwell | DFSC Chris Leitch | ACT Robin Grieve | Labour Kelly Ellis | NZ First Pita Paraone | Green Paul Doherty |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 55.07 | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2.68 | 0.78 | 19.01 | 8.06 | 8.66 |
| 30 Jun 2017 – Shane Jones is confirmed as the New Zealand First candidate in Whangarei (National have held the Whangarei seat since 1975). |||||||||||
| Q+A Colmar Brunton | 19 – 22 Aug 2017 | 42 | 24 | 22 | 10 | 1.7 | 0.1 | N/A | N/A | N/A |

### Ikaroa-Rāwhiti
#### Party vote

| Poll | Date | Labour | Māori | Mana | National | NZ First | Green | ACT | TOP |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 47.38 | 12.19 | — | 5.37 | 11.25 | 10.28 | 0.11 | — |
| Māori TV Reid Research | 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 | 50.4 | 21.1 | 1.3 | 5.9 | 12 | 7.5 | 0.3 | 1.6 |

#### Candidate vote

| Poll | Date | Labour Meka Whaitiri | Māori Marama Fox | Green Elizabeth Kerekere |
| Māori TV Reid Research | 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 | 55 | 39 | 6 |

### Te Tai Hauāuru
#### Party vote

| Poll | Date | Labour | Māori | National | Green | NZ First | Mana | TOP |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 42.23 | 17.64 | 7.11 | 11.93 | 11.79 | 6.82 | — |
| Māori TV Reid Research | 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 | 41.8 | 24 | 11.2 | 9.1 | 11 | 1.3 | 1.3 |

#### Candidate vote

| Poll | Date | Labour Adrian Rurawhe | Māori Howie Tamati | Green Jack McDonald |
| Māori TV Reid Research | 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 | 39 | 52 | 9.1 |

### Te Tai Tonga
#### Party vote

| Poll | Date | Labour | National | Māori | Green | NZ First | ACT | TOP |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 36.7 | 14.92 | 11.19 | 16.41 | 12.82 | 0.17 | — |
| Māori TV Reid Research | 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 | 47.6 | 14.1 | 11.7 | 9.3 | 14.4 | 0.3 | 2.4 |

#### Candidate vote

| Poll | Date | Labour Rino Tirikatene | Māori Mei Reedy-Taare | Green Metiria Turei |
| Māori TV Reid Research | 11 Jul – 17 Aug 2017 | 57.1 | 22.1 | 20.7 |

### Hauraki-Waikato
#### Party vote

| Poll | Date | Labour | NZ First | Māori |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 46.50 | 13.37 | 11.97 |
| Māori TV-Reid Research | 11 Jul – 3 Sept 2017 | 52.6 | 15.1 | 14.5 |

#### Candidate vote

| Poll | Date | Labour Nanaia Mahuta | Māori Rahui Papa | Mana Susan Cullen |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 59.54 | 21.96 | 15.22 |
| Māori TV-Reid Research | 11 Jul – 3 Sept 2017 | 78 | 22 | — |

### Tāmaki Makaurau
#### Party vote

| Poll | Date | Labour | NZ First | Māori | Green | National |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 40.45 | 13.98 | 12.72 | 11.69 | 7.55 |
| Māori TV-Reid Research | 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 | 47.0 | 12.6 | 14.5 | 11.3 | 12.6 |

#### Candidate vote

| Poll | Date | Labour Peeni Henare | Māori Shane Taurima | Green Marama Davidson | Māori Rangi McLean |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 37.48 | — | 15.60 | 30.21 |
| Māori TV-Reid Research | 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 | 46.0 | 32.6 | 21.4 | — |

### Te Tai Tokerau
#### Party vote

| Poll | Date | Labour | NZ First | Māori | Green | National | Mana |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 38.8 | 8.1 | 9.1 | 8.7 | 10.2 | 16.3 |
| Māori TV-Reid Research | 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 | 49.7 | 14.7 | 9.7 | 10.3 | 7.9 | 6.1 |

#### Candidate vote

| Poll | Date | Labour Kelvin Davis | Mana Hone Harawira | Green Godfrey Rudoplh |
| 2014 election result | 20 September 2014 | 43.90 | 40.53 | — |
| Māori TV-Reid Research | 12 Jul – 5 Sept 2017 | 67.4 | 30.3 | 2.3 |

## Forecasts

The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no changes to electorate seats each party holds (ACT retains Epsom, Māori retains Waiariki, Labour retains Te Tai Tokerau, etc.) unless there is a specific reason to assume change. For example, after Peter Dunne announced his retirement, projections stopped assuming United Future would retain Ōhāriu. Other parties that do not pass the 5% threshold are assumed to not to win an electorate and therefore gain no seats.
Radio New Zealand takes a "poll of polls" average to produce their forecast. The New Zealand Herald bases theirs on a predictive model incorporating poll data as well as past election results and past poll accuracy. Newshub and 1 News and produce projections based on their own polls only.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority. This happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but they formed a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.
| Party | Party | Newshub 13–20 Sep 2017 poll [final] | 1 News 15–19 Sep 2017 poll [final] | Roy Morgan 28 Aug–10 Sep 2017 poll [final] | Radio NZ as of 21 Sep 2017 [final] | NZ Herald as of 22 Sep 2017 [final] | Stuff as of 22 Sep 2017 [final] | Official result |
| | National | 56 | 58 | 50 | 55 | 56 (±2) | 54 | 56 |
| | Labour | 45 | 46 | 49 | 46 | 47 (±3) | 46 | 46 |
| | NZ First | 9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 (±2) | 7 | 9 |
| | Green | 9 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 7 (±2) | 10 | 8 |
| | ACT | 1 | 1* | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| | Māori Party | 2** | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Seats in Parliament | Seats in Parliament | 122 | 121 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| Overall result (majority) | Overall result (majority) | National−NZ First (65) | National−NZ First (64) | Labour−Green−Māori (62) | National–NZ First (63) | National–NZ First (65) | National–NZ First (61) | National–NZ First (65) |
| Overall result (majority) | Overall result (majority) | Labour−Green−NZ First (63) | Labour−Green−NZ First (61) | Labour−Green−Māori (62) | Labour−Green−NZ First (63) | Labour−Green–NZ First (62) | Labour−Green–NZ First (63) | Labour−Green–NZ First (63) |
    * indicates an overhang seat
* 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 These are the survey dates of the poll, or if the survey dates are not stated, the date the poll was released.
* 1 2 3 For the Internet MANA party vote alliance.
* ↑ The Herald's forecasted numbers are the medians of all likely outcomes for that party. The sum of the parties' forecasted seats does not necessarily equal the total likely seats in Parliament. In this table, "Seats in Parliament" is calculated by adding the number of forecast overhang seats to 120, even if the individual parties' seat projections do not add up to this number.
* ↑ Stuff's projected numbers add up to 119, but this outcome is impossible. Calculation (based on exact percentage) shows that 120th and last seat would be allocated to Labour. Taking into account that the polling average have three significant figures it is not possible to decide which party get the last seat.
New Zealand does not have a strong tradition of third-party forecast models. Some private individuals have created their own projection models.