# Towards Socialism or Capitalism?

* This article is part of a series aboutLeon Trotsky
Personal
Childhood and family
Train
House Museum
Russian political activities
First exile
Russian Revolution of 1905
Treaty of Brest-Litovsk
Russian Civil War
Trade-union debate
Kronstadt rebellion
Scissors Crisis
Deposition
Case of the Anti-Soviet "Bloc of Rightists and Trotskyites"
American Committee for the Defense of Leon Trotsky
Dewey Commission
Assassination
perpetrator
Political ideology
Leninism
Democratic centralism
Trotskyism
orthodox
Anti-Stalinist left
Soviet democracy
Worker's control
Affiliations
Left Opposition
United Opposition
Fourth International
Bibliography
Our Political Tasks
Our Revolution
1905
The Permanent Revolution and Results and Prospects
Terrorism and Communism
Trotsky's Military Writings
Literature and Revolution
New Course
Lessons of October
Towards Socialism or Capitalism?
Leon Trotsky on China
My Life
The Permanent Revolution
History of the Russian Revolution
The Revolution Betrayed
The Stalin School of Falsification
Their Morals and Ours: The class foundations of moral practice
The Transitional Program
Stalin: An Appraisal of the Man and His Influence
Writings of Leon Trotsky
The Spanish Revolution, 1931-1939
The Struggle Against Fascism in Germany
In Defence of Marxism :
vte :
Towards Socialism or Capitalism ? is a 1925 economic pamphlet produced by Leon Trotsky which reviewed the industrial development of Soviet Union following the adoption of the New Economic Policy. Trotsky centred his analysis on the statistical figures assembled by GOSPLAN on industrial output. The book examined the prospects for fulfilling industrial targets, socialisation of agriculture and potential dangers facing economic reconstruction such as the political tensions emanating from social stratification.

## Historical background

Trotsky had written the book amidst Lenin's death and the succession struggle in 1924. Several factions had begun to coalesce themselves around differing economic positions which precipitated the “Great debate” from 1924 until 1928.
In opposition to Nikolai Bukharin and the Rightist faction, Trotsky had allied himself with members of the Left Opposition such as Yevgeni Preobrazhensky who was the main economic theoretician and formulated the concept of “primitive socialist accumulation”. The Left Opposition advocated for state-led industrialization driven by a supply flow of capital which derived from agricultural taxation. Consequently, this would culminate in Trotsky developing his economic thinking with his pamphlet on Toward Socialism or Capitalism ?

## Modern interpretations

The book has prompted a spectrum of interpretations on Trotsky's political and economic alignment during the 1920s party debates. Historian E. H. Carr viewed the work to be consistent with his political inclinations towards progressive industrialization and electrification as seen with his active support for the Dnieprostroi dam which was a source of contention with the more reticent Stalin. Contrarily, historian Geoffrey Swain claimed that Trotsky had consciously associated himself with the Stalinist project of building socialism in one country.
On the other hand, Marxist theoretician David North believed this view misrepresented the actual position of Trotsky. Rather, he was of the view that Trotsky had instead argued that the long-term survival of world capitalism presented the prospect of building socialism in one country with a number of "great dangers". Political scientist Erik Van Ree asserted that Trotsky was ambiguous on the prospect of building socialism in one country.
Biographer Ian Thatcher stated the book outlined the possible paths of development available to the USSR. Thatcher further insisted that Trotsky sought to present several advantages of socialist economic management which would facilitate a faster rate of growth than was permissible under Western free-market conditions. Political scientist, Baruch Knei-Paz alluded to the pamphlet as textual evidence which delineated an area of difference between Trotsky and Stalin in terms of their economic outlook, with the former advocating for extensive commercial relations with European countries rather than autarkic isolationism.