# 2015 United Kingdom general election in Wales

The 2015 United Kingdom general election in Wales was held on 7 May 2015 and all 40 seats in Wales were contested. The election for each seat was conducted on the basis of first-past-the-post.
Despite the Labour party winning the most votes in Wales, the Conservatives won across the UK.

## Results overview

A full list of the results in Wales can be found in the House of Commons Library General Elections Online. The following is an overall table of results for Wales by the BBC.
| Party | Party | Seats | Seats | Seats | Seats | Seats | Votes | Votes | Votes |
| Party | Party | Total | Gains | Losses | Net +/- | % seats | Total | % | Change |
| | Labour | 25 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 62.5 | 552,473 | 36.9 | 0.6 |
| | Conservative | 11 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 27.5 | 407,813 | 27.2 | 1.1 |
| | UKIP | 0 | 0 | 0 | | — | 204,330 | 13.6 | 11.2 |
| | Plaid Cymru | 3 | 0 | 0 | | 7.5 | 181,704 | 12.1 | 0.8 |
| | Liberal Democrats | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2.5 | 97,783 | 6.5 | 13.6 |
| | Green | 0 | 0 | 0 | | — | 38,344 | 2.6 | 2.1 |
| | Socialist Labour | 0 | 0 | 0 | | — | 3,481 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| | TUSC | 0 | 0 | 0 | | — | 1,780 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| | Others | 0 | 0 | 0 | | — | 10,355 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Total | Total | 40 | | | | | 1,498,063 | | |
Popular vote
Labour
36.87%
Conservative
27.22%
UKIP
13.64%
Plaid Cymru
12.13%
Liberal Democrats
6.53%
Greens
2.56%
Other
1.05% :
Parliament seats
Labour
62.50%
Conservative
27.50%
Plaid Cymru
7.50%
Liberal Democrats
2.50% :

## Turnout statistics

| Election turnout statistics | | source and comment |
| Estimated total population of Wales | 3.1M | data for 30 June 2015 |
| Total eligible electorate | 2.281M | $^1$ |
| electorate as proportion of total population | 74% | |
| Total valid votes | 1.498M | $^1$ |
| Mean turnout based on total valid votes | 65.67% | |
| Mean as average of constituency results | 65.64% | |
| Mean as above but based on ballot box turnout | 65.77% | $^1$ ballot box turnout includes rejected ballots |
| Median valid vote turnout | 65.0% | turnout midway between 20th and 21st constituency |
| UK median valid vote turnout | 66.7% | for comparison with above |
$^1$ valid vote, count of rejected ballots and total electorate come from the source(s) given in 'Table of results by constituency' below.

## Results by constituency

Table of results by constituency :
| Constituency $^1$ | Total electorate $^2$ | Winning party | Majority |
| Aberavon | 49,821 | Welsh Labour hold | 10,445 |
| Aberconwy | 45,525 | Welsh Conservatives hold | 3,999 |
| Alyn and Deeside | 62,016 | Welsh Labour hold | 3,343 |
| Arfon | 40,492 | Plaid Cymru hold | 3,668 |
| Blaenau Gwent | 51,335 | Welsh Labour hold | 12,703 |
| Brecon and Radnorshire | 54,441 | Welsh Conservatives gain | 5,102 |
| Bridgend | 59,998 | Welsh Labour hold | 1,927 |
| Caerphilly | 63,603 | Welsh Labour hold | 10,073 |
| Cardiff Central | 57,456 | Welsh Labour gain | 4,981 |
| Cardiff North | 67,196 | Welsh Conservatives hold | 2,137 |
| Cardiff South and Penarth | 76,006 | Labour Co-operative Party hold | 7,453 |
| Cardiff West | 66,762 | Welsh Labour hold | 6,789 |
| Carmarthen East and Dinefwr | 55,605 | Plaid Cymru hold | 5,599 |
| Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire | 57,777 | Welsh Conservatives hold | 6,054 |
| Ceredigion | 54,243 | Welsh Liberal Democrats hold | 3,067 |
| Clwyd South | 54,996 | Welsh Labour hold | 2,402 |
| Clwyd West | 58,644 | Welsh Conservatives hold | 6,730 |
| Cynon Valley | 51,422 | Welsh Labour hold | 9,406 |
| Delyn | 53,639 | Welsh Labour hold | 2,930 |
| Dwyfor Meirionnydd | 44,394 | Plaid Cymru hold | 5,261 |
| Gower | 61,820 | Welsh Conservatives gain | 27 |
| Islwyn | 55,697 | Labour Co-operative Party hold | 10,404 |
| Llanelli | 59,796 | Welsh Labour hold | 7,095 |
| Merthyr Tydfil and Rhymney | 61,716 | Welsh Labour hold | 11,513 |
| Monmouth | 62,248 | Welsh Conservatives hold | 10,982 |
| Montgomeryshire | 48,690 | Welsh Conservatives hold | 5,325 |
| Neath | 56,097 | Welsh Labour hold | 9,546 |
| Newport East | 56,015 | Welsh Labour hold | 4,705 |
| Newport West | 62,137 | Welsh Labour hold | 3,510 |
| Ogmore | 55,320 | Welsh Labour hold | 13,043 |
| Pontypridd | 58,940 | Welsh Labour hold | 8,985 |
| Preseli Pembrokeshire | 57,371 | Welsh Conservatives hold | 4,969 |
| Rhondda | 51,811 | Welsh Labour hold | 7,455 |
| Swansea East | 58,011 | Welsh Labour hold | 12,028 |
| Swansea West | 58,776 | Welsh Labour $^3$ hold | 7,036 |
| Torfaen | 61,896 | Welsh Labour hold | 8,169 |
| Vale of Clwyd | 56,505 | Welsh Conservatives gain | 237 |
| Vale of Glamorgan | 72,187 | Welsh Conservatives hold | 6,880 |
| Wrexham | 50,992 | Welsh Labour hold | 1,831 |
| Ynys Môn | 49,939 | Welsh Labour hold | 229 |
$^1$ The information on the winning party and the majority come from the source(s) indicated.
$^2$ The total electorate comes from unless another reference is given. $^3$ The MP is a Labour Co-op Party member but he was nominated as 'Welsh Labour'.

## Target seats
### Labour

* Gower, Conservative, 0.1%
* Vale of Clwyd, Conservative, 0.7%
* Cardiff North, Conservative, 4.2%

### Conservative

* Bridgend, Labour, 4.9%
* Wrexham, Labour, 5.6%
* Clwyd South, Labour, 6.9%
* Delyn, Labour, 7.8%
* Alyn and Deeside, Labour, 8.1%
* Newport West, Labour, 8.7%

### Plaid Cymru

* Ynys Môn, Labour, 0.7%
* Ceredigion, Liberal Democrats, 8.2%

## Opinion polling

| Date(s) conducted | Polling organisation/client | Sample size | Plaid | Lab | Con | LD | UKIP | Green | Others | Lead |
| 16 April 2015 | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One | Five-way Opposition Leaders' Debate held on BBC One |
| 13–15 April 2015 | YouGov/ITV/Cardiff University | 1,143 | 12% | 40% | 26% | 6% | 13% | 4% | <0.5% | 14% |
| 2 April 2015 | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV | Seven-way Leaders' Debate on ITV |
| 26–31 Mar 2015 | YouGov/The Sun | 1,035 | 9% | 40% | 27% | 6% | 13% | 5% | 1% | 13% |
| 30 March 2015 | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign | Dissolution of Parliament and the official start of the election campaign |
| 24–27 Mar 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,189 | 11% | 40% | 25% | 5% | 14% | 5% | 1% | 15% |
| 26 March 2015 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 | First TV election interview by Jeremy Paxman with David Cameron and Ed Miliband on Sky and Channel 4 |
| 5–9 Mar 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,279 | 10% | 39% | 25% | 5% | 14% | 6% | 1% | 14% |
| 19–21 Jan 2015 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,036 | 10% | 37% | 23% | 6% | 16% | 8% | 1% | 14% |
| 8–13 Jan 2015 | ICM/BBC Wales | 1,004 | 12% | 38% | 21% | 7% | 13% | 6% | 2% | 17% |
| 2–3 Dec 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,131 | 11% | 36% | 23% | 5% | 18% | 5% | 2% | 13% |
| 19–22 Sep 2014 | ICM/BBC Wales | 1,006 | 13% | 39% | 23% | 5% | 16% | 2% | 1% | 16% |
| 8–11 Sep 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,025 | 11% | 38% | 23% | 6% | 17% | 5% | 1% | 15% |
| 26 Jun–1 Jul 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,035 | 11% | 41% | 25% | 5% | 14% | 3% | 2% | 16% |
| 22 May 2014 | 2014 European Parliament elections | 2014 European Parliament elections | 2014 European Parliament elections | 2014 European Parliament elections | 2014 European Parliament elections | 2014 European Parliament elections | 2014 European Parliament elections | 2014 European Parliament elections | 2014 European Parliament elections | 2014 European Parliament elections |
| 12–14 May 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,092 | 11% | 43% | 22% | 7% | 13% | 3% | 2% | 21% |
| 11–22 Apr 2014 | YouGov/University of Cardiff | 1,027 | 11% | 45% | 24% | 7% | 10% | 1% | 2% | 21% |
| 21–24 Feb 2014 | ICM/BBC Wales | 1,000 | 15% | 45% | 24% | 6% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 21% |
| 10–12 Feb 2014 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,250 | 11% | 47% | 22% | 7% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 25% |
| 2–4 Dec 2013 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,001 | 12% | 46% | 21% | 8% | 10% | 2% | 2% | 25% |
| 18–22 Jul 2013 | YouGov | 1,012 | 9% | 48% | 23% | 8% | 8% | 2% | 2% | 25% |
| 18–20 Feb 2013 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,007 | 10% | 51% | 22% | 9% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 29% |
| 2–4 Jul 2012 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,000 | 10% | 54% | 23% | 4% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 21% |
| 3 May 2012 | 2012 Welsh local elections | 2012 Welsh local elections | 2012 Welsh local elections | 2012 Welsh local elections | 2012 Welsh local elections | 2012 Welsh local elections | 2012 Welsh local elections | 2012 Welsh local elections | 2012 Welsh local elections | 2012 Welsh local elections |
| 12–16 Apr 2012 | YouGov | 1,039 | 12% | 50% | 23% | 7% | 9% | 9% | 9% | 27% |
| 30 Jan–1 Feb 2012 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,008 | 11% | 50% | 25% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 25% |
| 5 May 2011 | 2011 Welsh Assembly election | 2011 Welsh Assembly election | 2011 Welsh Assembly election | 2011 Welsh Assembly election | 2011 Welsh Assembly election | 2011 Welsh Assembly election | 2011 Welsh Assembly election | 2011 Welsh Assembly election | 2011 Welsh Assembly election | 2011 Welsh Assembly election |
| 2–4 May 2011 | YouGov/ITV Wales | 1,010 | 10% | 50% | 24% | 8% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 25% |
| 6 May 2010 | General election results | 1,466,690 | 11.3% | 36.2% | 26.1% | 20.1% | 2.4% | 0.4% | 3.4% | 10% |