# Amir Mohebbian

Amir Mohebbian (Persian: امیر محبیان), (born 23 June 1962 in Tehran, Iran) is an Iranian politician, journalist, professor of university and political analyst.
Mohebbian is a prominent Iranian political analyst, journalist, and commentator known for his insights on Iranian politics and international relations. He often provides commentary on domestic issues, foreign policy, and the socio-political landscape of Iran.
His work typically reflects a deep understanding of the complexities within Iranian society and its governance. Mohebbian has been involved in various media platforms and is recognized for his analytical approach to current events in Iran.
Amir Mohebbian's contributions often focus on the interplay between Iran's internal politics and its external relations, particularly with Western countries and regional neighbors. He analyzes the implications of domestic policies on Iran's geopolitical stance and explores how international sanctions and diplomatic efforts shape the country's political landscape.
In addition to his journalistic work, Mohebbian has participated in various discussions, panels, and conferences, where he shares his views on critical issues such as the nuclear negotiations, human rights in Iran, and the role of social movements in shaping public policy.
His perspectives are valued for their depth and nuance, often drawing from historical context and current events to provide a comprehensive understanding of the challenges facing Iran today. As a public intellectual, he plays a role in fostering dialogue about the future direction of Iranian society and governance.
Mohebbian has Ph.D. in western philosophy and he is an Assistant Professor of University and a faculty member of Azad University as well. Mohebbian is well known as a strategist for the conservative camp in Iran.

## Education

Mohebbian began his studies in Islamic studies in 1982. In 1983, he enrolled at Tehran University, where he initially pursued a one-year program in theology. He later shifted his focus to Western philosophy, ultimately continuing his education to attain a doctorate degree.

## political behavior

Mohebbian's political behavior is grounded in rationalism, through which he seeks to rationalize the actions of conservative political figures. His analytical capabilities have been recognized by numerous political observers both within Iran and internationally. Mohebbian has made notable predictions regarding Iranian politics and diplomacy, leading strategic studies centers in Europe and Asia to invite him to share his insights.
For example, in Berlin, 14 May 2009, Amir Mohebbian met with members of the German Bundestag, representatives of the Federal Foreign Office, the Federal Chancellery as well as with associates of selected think tanks to discuss the role of the media in Iran. Moreover, the discussion focused on the upcoming presidential elections in Iran as well as on current questions of Iranian foreign policy. The Political Background Discussion with Amir Mohebbian was based on Körber Foundation's tradition of dialogue with Iran.

## Mohebbian As A Strategist

In a significant analysis, Dr. Amir Mohebbian authored an article titled "Possible Scenarios of War Against Iran," which was published on the official website of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and in the daily newspaper Resalat. As a prominent political commentator associated with the conservative camp in Iran, Mohebbian examines the prevailing media discourse surrounding the potential for military action against Iran. In his article, he provides a detailed analysis of three possible scenarios involving an attack by the United States and its allies, assessing the likelihood of each scenario occurring.
The article outlines three potential scenarios for military conflict involving Iran:
1. **Total War of Attrition**: This scenario envisions a comprehensive military campaign that includes ground intervention, aimed at exhausting Iran's resources and capabilities over time.
2. **Limited War**: In this scenario, targeted actions are taken against key command centers of the Iranian regime, with the objective of achieving specific political goals rather than seeking total military defeat.
3. **Selective Warfare**: This approach focuses on precise strikes against particular targets to diminish Iran's offensive capabilities without engaging in broader conflict.
The political commentator goes into great detail about the severe problems involved in a military campaign against Iran in each of the three scenarios. It is his assessment that the third scenario (selective war against specific targets) is the most plausible of the three, but even the likelihood of this scenario is not particularly high due to several reasons, including the difficulty of attacking a large number of targets, the possibility of a selective war developing into an all-out war, the regional environmental consequences of an attack on nuclear facilities, and the inability of such an attack to impact Iran's scientific nuclear abilities.
Mohebbian argues that the military option is brought up by the West as part of a psychological warfare campaign aimed to achieve a number of objectives: testing Iran's reaction and the cohesion of the top echelon of its regime, mobilizing the support of Russia and China for sanctions against Iran, encouraging Arab countries to purchase American weapons to defend themselves against Iran, and forcing Iran into political concessions.
The author concludes the article with a discussion of Iran's response to the threats it has received, arguing that the well-coordinated reactions by top regime officials and all the country's political factions reveal the inadequacy of the American strategy. The commentator also argues that the Supreme Leader's public remarks concerning the military threats are aimed to send several important messages to the West: Iran will not yield to pressure, there is internal unity among the decision makers, Iran has no offensive intentions and poses no threat to any country in the region, and its policy is dependent on the policy of the other side. A reasonable policy by the United States will be met with a reasonable course of action, and any aggression will be met with a strong reaction.