# 2024 Ligurian regional election

The 2024 Ligurian regional election is taking place in Liguria, Italy on 27–28 October 2024. The snap election was called after the resignation of incumbent president, Giovanni Toti, following an investigation into corruption, particularly regarding favors to local businessmen in Genoa in exchange for financial support in local elections in 2021 and 2022.
Bucci won the electoral competition by outperforming his opponent in Ventimiglia, Sanremo, Rapallo among other centers where his coalition reached 50 and 60% of the votes, while Orlando performed strongly in Genova, despite Bucci being the city mayor there, and his home town of La Spezia, while also winning in Savona as well.
The race brought significant attention as it was considered a test for the national government but also for the center-right coalition in the region.

## Electoral system

The Regional Council of Liguria is composed of 30 members, plus the president elect. The president elect is the candidate winning a plurality of votes at the election. Within the council, 24 seats are elected in provincial constituencies by proportional representation. The remaining 6 councillors are assigned as a majority bonus if the winning candidate has less than 18 seats, otherwise they are distributed among the losing coalitions.
A single list must get at least 3% of the votes in a province in order to access the proportional distribution of seats, unless the list is connected to a coalition with more than 5% of the vote.

## Parties and candidates

| Political party or alliance | Political party or alliance | Constituent lists | Constituent lists | Previous result | Previous result | Candidate | Candidate |
| Political party or alliance | Political party or alliance | Constituent lists | Constituent lists | % | Seats | Candidate | Candidate |
| | Centre-right coalition | | Bucci for President Liguria Wins (incl. NM) | 22.6 | 7 | Marco Bucci |
| | Centre-right coalition | | League | 17.1 | 6 | Marco Bucci |
| | Centre-right coalition | | Brothers of Italy | 10.9 | 3 | Marco Bucci |
| | Centre-right coalition | | Forza Italia | 5.3 | 1 | Marco Bucci |
| | Centre-right coalition | | Union of the Centre | 0.7 | 0 | Marco Bucci |
| | Centre-right coalition | | Popular Alternative | — | — | Marco Bucci |
| | Centre-right coalition | | Ligurian Pride | — | — | Marco Bucci |
| | Centre-left coalition | | Democratic Party | 19.9 | 6 | Andrea Orlando |
| | Centre-left coalition | | Five Star Movement | 7.8 | 2 | Andrea Orlando |
| | Centre-left coalition | | Greens and Left Alliance (incl. SI, EV, Pos) | 3.9 | 1 | Andrea Orlando |
| | Centre-left coalition | | Civic Reformist Pact (incl. A, PRI, PER, MRE) | — | — | Andrea Orlando |
| | Centre-left coalition | | Head-on Ligurians (incl. PSI) | — | — | Andrea Orlando |
| | Centre-left coalition | | Andrea Orlando List | — | — | Andrea Orlando |
| | For the Alternative (incl. PRC, PCI, PaP) | For the Alternative (incl. PRC, PCI, PaP) | For the Alternative (incl. PRC, PCI, PaP) | — | — | Nicola Rollando |
| | Northern People’s Party | Northern People’s Party | Northern People’s Party | — | — | Maria Antonietta Cella |
| | United for the Constitution | United for the Constitution | United for the Constitution | — | — | Nicola Morra |
| | Workers' Communist Party | Workers' Communist Party | Workers' Communist Party | — | — | Marco Ferrando |
| | Sovereign Popular Democracy | Sovereign Popular Democracy | Sovereign Popular Democracy | — | — | Francesco Toscano |
| | Independence! | Independence! | Independence! | — | — | Alessandro Rosson |
| | Force of the People | Force of the People | Force of the People | — | — | Davide Felice |

## Opinion polls
### Candidates

| Date | Polling firm/ Client | Sample size | Bucci | Orlando | Morra | Others | Undecided | Lead |
| 28 Oct 2024 | Opinio (exit poll) | – | 47.0–51.0 | 45.5–49.5 | 0.0–2.0 | – | – | 1.5 |
| 28 Oct 2024 | SWG (exit poll) | – | 46.0–50.0 | 45.0–49.0 | – | 4.0–6.0 | – | 1.0 |
| 24 Sep–3 Oct 2024 | BiDiMedia | 1,000 | 47.5 | 47.0 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 23.0 | 0.5 |
| 1 Oct 2024 | Noto | – | 46.0 | 46.0 | – | 6.0 – 10.0 | 31.0 | Tie |
| 18 Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 47.0 | 50.0 | 3.0 | 0.0 | 46.0 | 3.0 |
| 18 Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 47.0 | 53.0 | – | 0.0 | 48.0 | 6.0 |

#### Hypothetical polls

| Date | Polling firm/ Client | Sample size | Centre-right | Orlando | Others | Lead |
| Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 46.0 | 54.0 | – | 8.0 |
| Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 47.0 | 53.0 | – | 6.0 |
| Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 48.0 | 52.0 | – | 4.0 |
| Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 45.0 | 55.0 | – | 10.0 |
| Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 45.0 | 55.0 | – | 10.0 |
| Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 47.0 | 53.0 | – | 6.0 |
| Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 45.0 | 55.0 | – | 10.0 |
| 5–7 Aug 2024 | Euromedia | – | 51.3 | 48.7 | – | 2.6 |
| 5–7 Aug 2024 | Euromedia | – | 52.3 | 47.7 | – | 4.6 |
| 5–7 Aug 2024 | Euromedia | – | 50.4 | 49.6 | – | 0.8 |
| 5–7 Aug 2024 | Euromedia | – | 52.1 | 47.9 | – | 4.2 |
| 5–7 Aug 2024 | Euromedia | – | 50.9 | 49.1 | – | 1.8 |

### Parties

| Date | Polling firm | Sample size | Centre-right | Centre-right | Centre-right | Centre-right | Centre-right | Centre-right | Centre-right | Centre-left | Centre-left | Centre-left | Centre-left | Centre-left | Centre-left | Centre-left | Centre-left | UpC | Others | Lead |
| Date | Polling firm | Sample size | FdI | FI | Lega | VL | NM | LP | Oth. | PD | M5S | AOP | AVS | IV | PCR | +E | LaTA | UpC | Others | Lead |
| 24 Sep–3 Oct 2024 | BiDiMedia | 1,000 | 20.2 | 5.7 | 8.0 | 10.4 | 10.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 25.9 | 7.0 | 4.0 | 7.1 | — | 2.2 | — | 1.0 | 1.8 | 3.5 | 5.7 |
| Sep 2024 | Tecnè | – | 25.0 | 9.0 | 6.0 | — | 4.0 | — | 1.0 | 27.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | — | 1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
* ↑ Generic centre-left candidate
* ↑ Carlo Bagnasco
* ↑ Ilaria Cavo
* ↑ Lorenzo Cuocolo
* ↑ Pietro Piciocchi
* ↑ Edoardo Rixi
* ↑ Marco Scajola
* ↑ This poll was commissioned by a political party, Giovanni Toti Liguria Committee
* ↑ Edoardo Rixi
* ↑ Ilaria Cavo
* ↑ Pietro Piciocchi
* ↑ Marco Scajola
* ↑ Giacomo Raul Giampedrone

## Results

27–28 October 2024 Ligurian regional election results :
| Results by party Results by coalition ||||||||||
| Candidates | Candidates | Votes | % | Seats | Parties | Parties | Votes | % | Seats |
| | Marco Bucci | 291,093 | 48.77 | 1 | | Brothers of Italy | 84,816 | 15.08 | 5 |
| | Marco Bucci | 291,093 | 48.77 | 1 | | Bucci for President Liguria Wins | 53,208 | 9.46 | 3 |
| | Marco Bucci | 291,093 | 48.77 | 1 | | League | 47,652 | 8.47 | 3 |
| | Marco Bucci | 291,093 | 48.77 | 1 | | Forza Italia | 44,849 | 7.98 | 3 |
| | Marco Bucci | 291,093 | 48.77 | 1 | | Ligurian Pride | 32,061 | 5.70 | 3 |
| | Marco Bucci | 291,093 | 48.77 | 1 | | Union of the Centre | 7,294 | 1.30 | – |
| | Marco Bucci | 291,093 | 48.77 | 1 | | Popular Alternative | 1,929 | 0.34 | – |
| | Marco Bucci | 291,093 | 48.77 | 1 | Total | Total | 271,809 | 48.34 | 17 |
| | Andrea Orlando | 282,669 | 47.36 | 1 | | Democratic Party | 160,063 | 28.47 | 8 |
| | Andrea Orlando | 282,669 | 47.36 | 1 | | Greens and Left Alliance | 34,716 | 6.17 | 2 |
| | Andrea Orlando | 282,669 | 47.36 | 1 | | Andrea Orlando List | 29,808 | 5.30 | 1 |
| | Andrea Orlando | 282,669 | 47.36 | 1 | | Five Star Movement | 25,659 | 4.56 | 1 |
| | Andrea Orlando | 282,669 | 47.36 | 1 | | Civic Reformist Pact | 9,813 | 1.75 | – |
| | Andrea Orlando | 282,669 | 47.36 | 1 | | Head-on Ligurians | 9,127 | 1.62 | – |
| | Andrea Orlando | 282,669 | 47.36 | 1 | Total | Total | 269,186 | 47.87 | 12 |
| | Nicola Morra | 5,223 | 0.88 | – | | United for the Constitution | 4,922 | 0.88 | – |
| | Nicola Rollando | 5,079 | 0.85 | – | | For the Alternative | 4,920 | 0.87 | – |
| | Francesco Toscano | 5,071 | 0.85 | – | | Sovereign Popular Democracy | 4,709 | 0.84 | – |
| | Marco Ferrando | 2,099 | 0.35 | – | | Workers' Communist Party | 1,813 | 0.32 | – |
| | Maria Antonietta Cella | 2,076 | 0.35 | – | | Northern People’s Party | 1,674 | 0.30 | – |
| | Davide Felice | 1,855 | 0.31 | – | | Force of the People | 1,696 | 0.30 | – |
| | Alessandro Rosson | 1,668 | 0.28 | – | | Independence! | 1,570 | 0.28 | – |
| Total candidates | Total candidates | 596,833 | 100.00 | 2 | Total parties | Total parties | 562,299 | 100.00 | 29 |
| Blank and invalid votes | Blank and invalid votes | 15,915 | 2.58 | | | | | | |
| Registered voters/turnout | Registered voters/turnout | 1,341,693 | 45.97 | | | | | | |
| Source: Ministry of the Interior – Election in Liguria ||||||||||
Popular vote
PD
28.47%
FdI
15.08%
Bucci
9.46%
Lega
8.47%
FI
7.98%
AVS
6.17%
OL
5.70%
Orlando
5.30%
M5S
4.56%
PCR
1.75%
LaTA
1.62%
UDC
1.30%
Others
4.14% :
President
Bucci
48.77%
Orlando
47.36%
Others
3.87% :

### Results by province and capital city

Whilst the province of Imperia voted for Bucci by 24 points, in all the other provinces the end result came within five points: Bucci won the province of Savona by 3 points, whilst Orlando won by 2 points in the metropolitan City of Genoa and by 4 points in the province of La Spezia.
In the major cities, despite being the incumbent mayor of Genoa, Bucci lost in his hometown to Orlando by 8 points but won Sanremo by 25.5 points and Imperia by 9 points; whilst Savona voted for Orlando by 20 points and La Spezia by 5 points. Overall, Orlando's strongest areas were the three largest cities of the region (Genoa, La Spezia, Savona) and their surrounding municipalities, whilst Bucci was the strongest west of Savona and in the Tigullio area east of Genova. Orlando's strength in Savona can be attributed to opposition to a regasification plant in nearby Vado Ligure that former president Toti had proposed to build in a protected sea area.
| Province | Andrea Orlando | Marco Bucci | Others |
| Genoa | 168,556 49.13% | 161,463 47.06% | 13,086 3.61% |
| La Spezia | 42,918 50.31% | 39,360 46.14% | 3,023 3.55% |
| Savona | 47,564 46.38% | 50,678 49.41% | 4,315 4.21% |
| Imperia | 23,633 35.88% | 39,588 60.10% | 2,648 4.02% |
| City | Andrea Orlando | Marco Bucci | Others |
| Genoa | 121,821 52.27% | 103,219 44.29% | 8,007 3.44% |
| La Spezia | 17,610 51.11% | 15,770 45.77% | 1,073 3.12% |
| Savona | 12,932 57.96% | 8,373 37.53% | 1,006 4.51% |
| Imperia | 6,279 43.29% | 7,623 52.55% | 604 4.16% |