# 2012 United States Senate election in Montana

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The 2012 United States Senate election in Montana was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.
Incumbent Democratic senator Jon Tester successfully ran for reelection to a second term, gaining 48.6% of the vote against Republican U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg who received 44.9% of the vote and Libertarian candidate Dan Cox received 6.56% of the vote.

## Democratic primary
### Candidate

* Jon Tester, incumbent U.S. Senator

## Republican primary
### Candidates

* Denny Rehberg, U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor, former state representative and nominee in 1996
* Dennis Teske, farmer

### Withdrew

* Steve Daines, businessman and 2008 Republican nominee for Lieutenant Governor of Montana (ran for the U.S. House of Representatives)

### Endorsements

* Conrad Burns, former U.S. Senator from Montana
* National Rifle Association of America
* Gun Owners of America

### Results

The Republican primary was held on June 5, 2012.
U.S. Senate election in Montana Republican primary :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Denny Rehberg | 105,632 | 76.2 |
| | Republican | Dennis Teske | 33,079 | 23.8 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 138,711 | 100.0 |

## General election
### Candidates

* Dan Cox (Libertarian), retired businessman
* Denny Rehberg (Republican), U.S. Representative, former lieutenant governor and former state representative
* Jon Tester (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator and former state senator

### Debates

Three debates were scheduled, including one with the Libertarian candidate whose ultimate influence on the race remains uncertain. The first, between Rehberg and Tester, was held on October 8, 2012, at 7 p.m. at Petro Theatre at the MSU Billings University campus. The debate was televised live by Montana PBS andbroadcast on KEMC/Yellowstone Public Radio and streamed on the Gazette's website. It was moderated by Steve Prosinski, editor of The Gazette, with questions from a panel of political reporters. Representatives from the Associated Students of Montana State University Billings, the student government, served as timekeepers.
* Complete video of debate, October 8, 2012.
* Complete video of debate, October 20, 2012

### Campaign

Former president of the Montana Senate and farmer Jon Tester was elected with 49.2% of the vote in 2006, defeating incumbent Conrad Burns.
As of June 30, 2011, Jon Tester had saved $2.34 million in campaign funds. Tester has been accused by Republican Denny Rehberg's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and movie stars.
On February 5, 2011, U.S. Representative Denny Rehberg announced his intention to run for the U.S. Senate. Steve Daines had announced he would seek the Republican nomination on November 13, 2010, but just before Rehberg's announcement he dropped out of the primary and announced he would instead seek the Republican nomination for Montana's at-large congressional district in 2012. Daines would later be elected in the other U.S. Senate seat two years later.
As of early July 2010, Denny Rehberg had saved $1.5 million of an original $2 million in campaign funds. Rehberg accused Democrat Jon Tester's senate campaign of depending on financial contributions from Wall Street banking executives and Hollywood while Rehberg's campaign relies primarily on in state donations. Tester's campaign countered that Rehberg has been funded by petroleum special interests and Wall Street.
The National Republican Senatorial Committee aired an attack ad against Jon Tester that mistakenly included a digitally manipulated photo of Tester (who has only two fingers on his left hand) with full sets of fingers. Another ad against Tester, from the Karl Rove group Crossroads GPS, falsely asserted that Tester had voted in favor of Environmental Protection Agency regulation of farm dust. In fact, Tester had praised the EPA for not attempting such a regulation. The vote cited in the anti-Tester ad concerned currency exchange rates.
In early October 2012, Crossroads GPS announced it would launch a $16 million advertising buy in national races, of which four were this and three other Senate elections.
| Candidate (party) | Receipts | Disbursements | Cash on hand | Debt |
| Jon Tester (D) | $11,699,935 | $10,377,126 | $1,334,858 | $0 |
| Denny Rehberg (R) | $8,420,655 | $7,249,285 | $1,171,369 | $0 |
| Source: Federal Election Commission |||||

#### Top contributors

* Although organizations are listed here, it is illegal for corporations to contribute to federal campaigns. Only political action committees (PACs) and individuals may contribute to federal candidates and in limited amounts. These lists actually indicate aggregate contributions from the organizations' PACs, their individual members or employees or owners, and those individuals' immediate families.
| Jon Tester | Contribution | Denny Rehberg | Contribution |
| League of Conservation Voters | $82,332 | Alliance Resource Partners | $36,500 |
| Visa Inc. | $47,400 | Exxon Mobil | $29,500 |
| JPMorgan Chase & Co | $47,000 | Las Vegas Sands | $25,000 |
| Thornton & Naumes | $46,600 | Mewbourne Oil Co | $25,000 |
| WPP Group | $38,350 | Murray Energy | $24,068 |
| Blackstone Group | $34,000 | Devon Energy | $20,400 |
| Girardi & Keese | $30,000 | Arch Coal | $19,000 |
| Pederson Group | $29,500 | Yellowstone Bank | $17,500 |
| Comcast Corp | $28,500 | Marathon Oil | $13,750 |
| First Interstate BancSystem | $28,400 | Koch Industries | $13,500 |

#### Top industries

| Jon Tester | Contribution | Denny Rehberg | Contribution |
| Lawyers/Law firms | $1,084,445 | Oil & Gas | $327,969 |
| Retired | $534,716 | Financial Institutions | $277,474 |
| Lobbyists | $506,931 | Retired | $268,693 |
| Financial Institutions | $438,763 | Leadership PACs | $267,000 |
| Leadership PACs | $345,750 | Mining | $169,318 |
| Commercial Banks | $299,818 | Lobbyists | $150,050 |
| Real Estate | $280,945 | Real Estate | $121,080 |
| Insurance | $211,009 | Misc Finance | $94,655 |
| Misc Finance | $188,750 | Lawyers/Law Firms | $89,338 |
| Health Professionals | $181,483 | Republican/Conservative | $76,855 |

### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | November 1, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean R (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg Political Report | Tossup | November 2, 2012 |
| Real Clear Politics | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |

### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Denny Rehberg (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 46% | 48% | — | 6% |
| Mason-Dixon | March 14–16, 2011 | 625 | ±4.0% | 46% | 45% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | June 16–19, 2011 | 819 | ±3.4% | 45% | 47% | — | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 28–30, 2011 | 1,625 | ±2.4% | 45% | 47% | 4% | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | February 22, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 44% | 47% | 6% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports | April 2, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 44% | 47% | — | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling | April 26–29, 2012 | 934 | ±3.2% | 48% | 43% | 9% | — |
| Rasmussen Reports | May 2, 2012 | 450 | ±5.0% | 43% | 53% | 2% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports | June 18, 2012 | 450 | ±5.0% | 47% | 49% | 2% | 2% |
| Rasmussen Reports | August 20, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 43% | 47% | 5% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | September 10–11, 2012 | 656 | ±3.8% | 45% | 43% | 8% | 3% |
| Mason-Dixon | September 17–19, 2012 | 625 | ±4.0% | 45% | 48% | 1% | 6% |
| MSU | October 9, 2012 | 477 | ±4.6% | 40% | 43% | 5% | 12% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 8–10, 2012 | 737 | ±3.6% | 45% | 43% | 8% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 14, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 48% | 48% | 3% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling/LCV | October 15–16, 2012 | 806 | ±3.5% | 46% | 44% | 7% | 3% |
| Pharos Research | October 19–21, 2012 | 828 | ±3.4% | 48% | 46% | — | 5% |
| Pharos Research | October 26–28, 2012 | 799 | ±3.5% | 48% | 47% | — | 5% |
| Rasmussen Reports | October 29, 2012 | 500 | ±4.5% | 49% | 48% | 2% | 2% |
| Mason-Dixon/Gazette State Bureau | October 29–31, 2012 | 625 | 4.0% | 45% | 49% | 1% | 5% |
| Public Policy Polling | November 2–3, 2012 | 836 | 3.4% | 48% | 46% | 4% | 2% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Steve Daines (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 48% | 37% | — | 14% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Neil Livingstone (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 46% | 35% | — | 19% |
| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Jon Tester (D) | Marc Racicot (R) | Other | Undecided |
| Public Policy Polling | November 10–13, 2010 | 1,176 | ±2.9% | 42% | 49% | — | 9% |

### Results

Tester won re-election to a second term, albeit by a narrow margin. He received about 4% more of the vote than Republican Rehberg, but the difference in Tester and Rehberg's vote totals was less than the vote total of Libertarian Dan Cox, who received 6.6% of the vote.
United States Senate election in Montana, 2012 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% |
| | Democratic | Jon Tester (incumbent) | 236,123 | 48.58% | −0.58% |
| | Republican | Denny Rehberg | 218,051 | 44.86% | −3.43% |
| | Libertarian | Dan Cox | 31,892 | 6.56% | +4.01% |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 486,066 | 100.00% | N/A |
| | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold | Democratic hold |

#### By county

| County | Tester | Votes | Rehberg | Votes | Cox | Votes | Total |
| Beaverhead | 31.84% | 1,532 | 59.77% | 2,876 | 8.4% | 404 | 4,812 |
| Big Horn | 67.39% | 3,141 | 28.08% | 1,309 | 4.53% | 211 | 4,661 |
| Blaine | 63.88% | 1,834 | 31.24% | 897 | 4.88% | 140 | 2,871 |
| Broadwater | 33.01% | 995 | 57.47% | 1,732 | 9.52% | 287 | 3,014 |
| Carbon | 45.9% | 2,691 | 47.55% | 2,788 | 6.55% | 384 | 5,863 |
| Carter | 15.74% | 125 | 77.58% | 616 | 6.68% | 53 | 794 |
| Cascade | 52.47% | 18,246 | 41.96% | 14,589 | 5.57% | 1,936 | 34,771 |
| Chouteau | 48.19% | 1,374 | 46.33% | 1,321 | 5.47% | 156 | 2,851 |
| Custer | 43.21% | 2,283 | 49.31% | 2,661 | 8.38% | 452 | 5,396 |
| Daniels | 32.6% | 327 | 60.52% | 607 | 6.88% | 69 | 1,003 |
| Dawson | 35.46% | 1,571 | 56.52% | 2,504 | 8.01% | 355 | 4,430 |
| Deer Lodge | 69.55% | 3,122 | 23.37% | 1,049 | 7.08% | 318 | 4,489 |
| Fallon | 29.78% | 422 | 59.28% | 840 | 10.94% | 155 | 1,407 |
| Fergus | 33.94% | 2,063 | 58.12% | 3,533 | 7.95% | 483 | 6,709 |
| Flathead | 37.17% | 16,223 | 55.38% | 24,171 | 7.45% | 3,252 | 43,646 |
| Gallatin | 51.63% | 24,781 | 42.47% | 20,386 | 5.9% | 2,834 | 48,001 |
| Garfield | 14.31% | 101 | 79.04% | 558 | 6.66% | 47 | 708 |
| Glacier | 69.6% | 3,118 | 24.84% | 1,113 | 5.56% | 249 | 4,480 |
| Golden Valley | 36.25% | 174 | 57.5% | 275 | 6.25% | 30 | 480 |
| Granite | 38.53% | 657 | 52.49% | 895 | 8.97% | 153 | 1,705 |
| Hill | 58.93% | 4,060 | 34.27% | 2,361 | 6.81% | 469 | 6,890 |
| Jefferson | 40.92% | 2,685 | 51.65% | 3,389 | 7.42% | 487 | 6,561 |
| Judith Basin | 35.94% | 441 | 57.13% | 701 | 6.93% | 85 | 1,227 |
| Lake | 49.25% | 6,561 | 42.92% | 5,717 | 7.83% | 1,043 | 13,321 |
| Lewis and Clark | 54.34% | 18,189 | 40.17% | 13,446 | 5.49% | 1,839 | 33,474 |
| Liberty | 40.48% | 1,341 | 53.12% | 1,760 | 6.09% | 61 | 1,002 |
| Lincoln | 34.62% | 3,091 | 56.90% | 5,080 | 8.48% | 757 | 8,928 |
| Madison | 33.2% | 1,516 | 58.91% | 2,690 | 7.88% | 360 | 4,566 |
| McCone | 32.9% | 332 | 61.05% | 616 | 6.05% | 61 | 1,009 |
| Meagher | 34.93% | 342 | 55.57% | 544 | 9.5% | 93 | 979 |
| Mineral | 42.66% | 866 | 47.44% | 963 | 9.9% | 201 | 2,030 |
| Missoula | 63.49% | 36,488 | 31.64% | 18,184 | 4.87% | 2,799 | 57,471 |
| Musselshell | 28.58% | 684 | 61.14% | 1,463 | 10.28% | 246 | 2,393 |
| Park | 48.22% | 4,260 | 43.94% | 3,882 | 7.84% | 693 | 8,835 |
| Petroleum | 24.41% | 73 | 67.56% | 202 | 8.03% | 24 | 299 |
| Phillips | 27.2% | 607 | 65.64% | 1,465 | 7.17% | 160 | 2,232 |
| Pondera | 43.53% | 1,187 | 49.69% | 1,355 | 6.78% | 185 | 2,727 |
| Powder River | 23.32% | 239 | 70.15% | 719 | 6.54% | 67 | 1,025 |
| Powell | 41.75% | 1,167 | 51.2% | 1,431 | 7.05% | 197 | 2,795 |
| Prairie | 33.33% | 236 | 59.32% | 420 | 7.34% | 52 | 708 |
| Ravalli | 38.65% | 8,602 | 53.87% | 11,990 | 7.48% | 1,666 | 22,258 |
| Richland | 30.18% | 1,406 | 62.95% | 2,933 | 6.87% | 320 | 4,659 |
| Roosevelt | 61.41% | 2,269 | 33.42% | 1,235 | 5.17% | 191 | 3,695 |
| Rosebud | 48.0% | 1,704 | 44.45% | 1,578 | 7.55% | 268 | 3,550 |
| Sanders | 34.31% | 2,044 | 54.04% | 3,219 | 11.65% | 694 | 5,957 |
| Sheridan | 42.23% | 812 | 51.74% | 995 | 6.03% | 116 | 1,923 |
| Silver Bow | 69.29% | 11,673 | 24.62% | 4,148 | 6.09% | 1,026 | 16,847 |
| Stillwater | 36.66% | 1,732 | 56.84% | 2,684 | 6.52% | 308 | 4,724 |
| Sweet Grass | 31.19% | 661 | 62.67% | 1,328 | 6.13% | 130 | 2,119 |
| Teton | 40.48% | 1,341 | 53.12% | 1,760 | 6.4% | 212 | 3,313 |
| Toole | 34.01% | 721 | 57.03% | 1,209 | 8.96% | 190 | 2,120 |
| Treasure | 33.98% | 157 | 54.55% | 252 | 11.47% | 53 | 462 |
| Valley | 44.98% | 1,749 | 46.91% | 1,824 | 8.1% | 315 | 3,888 |
| Wheatland | 36.79% | 365 | 56.35% | 559 | 6.85% | 68 | 992 |
| Wibaux | 27.39% | 149 | 62.32% | 339 | 10.29% | 56 | 544 |
| Yellowstone | 47.15% | 32,565 | 46.44% | 32,077 | 6.42% | 4,432 | 69,074 |

##### Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic

* Chouteau (largest municipality: Fort Benton)
* Gallatin (largest city: Bozeman)
* Yellowstone (largest municipality: Billings)

##### Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

* Mineral (largest city: Superior)
* Sheridan (largest city: Plentywood)
Source: