# 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota

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The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota were held on Tuesday, November 6, 2012, to elect the eight U.S. representatives from the state of Minnesota. The elections coincided with the elections of other federal and state offices, including a quadrennial presidential election and an election to the U.S. Senate. Primary elections were held on August 14, 2012.

## Overview

United States House of Representatives elections in Minnesota, 2012 :
| Party | Party | Votes | Percentage | Seats before | Seats after | +/– |
| | Democratic-Farmer-Labor | 1,560,984 | 55.48% | 4 | 5 | +1 |
| | Republican | 1,210,409 | 43.02% | 4 | 3 | -1 |
| | Independence | 36,433 | 1.29% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| | Others | 5,557 | 0.20% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Totals | Totals | 2,813,383 | 100.00% | 8 | 8 | — |

## Redistricting

A redistricting plan was proposed by Republicans in the Minnesota Legislature on May 9, 2011. The plan was passed by the Minnesota House of Representatives on May 13 and the Minnesota Senate on May 18, but was vetoed by Democratic Governor Mark Dayton on May 19.
In February 2012, a state court panel redrew Minnesota's congressional boundaries with the effect of enacting a "least-change" map.

## District 1

Democrat Tim Walz, who had represented Minnesota's 1st congressional district since 2007, sought re-election. In redistricting, Murray County, Pipestone County and half of Cottonwood County were moved from the 1st district to the 7th, and Wabasha County was moved from the 1st district to the 2nd, while Le Sueur County and most of Rice County were moved from the 2nd district to the 1st. The 1st district was expected to continue to slightly favor Republicans.

### Democratic primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Tim Walz, incumbent U.S. Representative

#### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz (incumbent) | 15,697 | 100.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 15,697 | 100.0 |

### Republican primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Allen Quist, former state representative from legislative district 23B (1983–1989), candidate for governor in 1994 & 1998 and for this seat in 2010

##### Eliminated in primary

* Mike Parry, state senator from senate district 26 since 2010

##### Declined

* Randy Demmer, former state representative nominee for this seat in 2010,
* Steve Drazkowski, state representative
* Julie Rosen, state senator

#### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Allen Quist | 12,540 | 54.1 |
| | Republican | Mike Parry | 10,622 | 45.9 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 23,162 | 100.0 |

### General election
#### Endorsements

Labor unions
* AFL-CIO
* American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
* Education Minnesota
* National Association of Letter Carriers
* National Education Association
* Service Employees International Union
* United Steelworkers
Organizations
* Clean Water Action
* Feminist Majority
* NARAL Pro-Choice America
* NRA Political Victory Fund
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund
* Sierra Club
* Stonewall Democrats
* Veterans' Alliance for Security and Democracy
* VoteVets
Organizations
* Campaign for Working Families
* Eagle Forum
* National Right to Life Committee

#### Results

Walz handily dispatched Quist in the election, garnering 58% of the vote.
Minnesota's 1st congressional district, 2012 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Tim Walz (incumbent) | 193,211 | 57.5 |
| | Republican | Allen Quist | 142,164 | 42.3 |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 505 | 0.2 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 335,880 | 100.00 |
| | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold |

## District 2

Republican John Kline, who had represented Minnesota's 2nd congressional district since 2003, sought re-election.
In redistricting, Le Sueur County and Rice County were moved from the 2nd district to the 1st, and Carver County was moved from the 2nd district to the 3rd and 6th, while West St. Paul and parts of South St. Paul were moved from the 4th district to the 2nd. The 2nd district was made slightly more favorable to Democrats, but continues to favor Republicans.

### Republican primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* John Kline, incumbent U.S. Representative

##### Eliminated in primary

* David Gerson

#### Results

Republican primary election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | John Kline (incumbent) | 15,859 | 85.1 |
| | Republican | David Gerson | 2,772 | 14.9 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 18,631 | 100.0 |

### Democratic primary

Patrick Ganey, a member of the Northfield City Council; Kathleen Gaylord, a member of the Dakota County Commission; former state Representative Mike Obermueller; and Dan Powers, a former small business owner who unsuccessfully sought the DFL nomination in the 2nd district in 2010, sought the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party nomination to challenge Kline. At the congressional district convention, the party endorsed Mike Obermueller.

#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Mike Obermueller, former state representative from legislative district 38B (2009–2011)

##### Withdrawn

* Patrick Ganey, Northfield City Council member
* Kathleen Gaylord, Dakota County Commission member
* Dan Powers, former small business owner candidate for this seat in 2010

#### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Mike Obermueller | 11,628 | 100.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 11,628 | 100.0 |

### General election
#### Endorsements

Organizations
* Campaign for Working Families
* National Right to Life Committee
* NRA Political Victory Fund
* United States Chamber of Commerce
Labor unions
* AFL-CIO
* American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
* Education Minnesota
* National Association of Letter Carriers
* Service Employees International Union
* United Steelworkers
Organizations
* Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund
* Sierra Club

#### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | John Kline (R) | Mike Obermueller (D) | Undecided |
| SurveyUSA | October 17–18, 2012 | 565 | ±4.2% | 49% | 41% | 11% |

#### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg | Safe R | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times | Lean R | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill | Likely R | November 4, 2012 |

#### Results

Despite a strong challenge from Obermueller, Kline prevailed.
Minnesota's 2nd congressional district, 2012 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | John Kline (incumbent) | 193,587 | 54.0 |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Mike Obermueller | 164,338 | 45.9 |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 521 | 0.1 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 358,446 | 100.0 |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

## District 3

Republican Erik Paulsen, who had represented Minnesota's 3rd congressional district since 2009 sought re-election.
In redistricting, the 3rd district was expanded to include eastern Carver County, while part of the northeastern Minneapolis–Saint Paul metro area was moved to the 5th. The district was made more favorable to Republicans.

### Republican primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Erik Paulsen, incumbent U.S. Representative

##### Eliminated in primary

* John W. Howard III

#### Results

Republican primary election :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Erik Paulsen (incumbent) | 18,672 | 90.2 |
| | Republican | John W. Howard III | 2,032 | 9.8 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 20,704 | 100.0 |

### Democratic primary

Brian Barnes, an Edina businessman and former Navy Reserve officer and Sharon Sund, a Plymouth scientist and small-business owner sought the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party nomination to challenge Paulsen. In the third district Democratic convention, Barnes won the party endorsement and Sund backed his candidacy. Sund was subsequently elected Chair of the Hennepin County Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party.

#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Brian Barnes, businessman and former Navy Reserve officer

##### Withdrawn

* Sharon Sund, Plymouth scientist and small-business owner

#### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Brian Barnes | 11,786 | 100.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 11,786 | 100.0 |

### General election
#### Endorsements

Organizations
* Campaign for Working Families
* National Right to Life Committee
* NRA Political Victory Fund
* United States Chamber of Commerce
Labor unions
* AFL-CIO
* American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
* Education Minnesota
* National Education Association
* Service Employees International Union
* United Steelworkers
Organizations
* National Organization for Women
* Stonewall Democrats

#### Results

Minnesota's 3rd congressional district, 2012 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Erik Paulsen (incumbent) | 222,335 | 58.1 |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Brian Barnes | 159,937 | 41.8 |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 433 | 0.1 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 382,705 | 100.0 |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |
Paulsen received 58% of the vote, defeating Barnes who received 42%.

## District 4

Democrat Betty McCollum, who had represented Minnesota's 4th congressional district since 2001, sought re-election. In redistricting, the 4th district was made slightly more favorable to Republicans, but continues to strongly favor Democrats.
The home of Republican U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann, who had represented Minnesota's 6th congressional district since 2007, was drawn into the 4th district in redistricting; however, Bachmann sought re-election in the 6th district.
McCollum retained her seat, defeating Hernandez.

### Democratic primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Betty McCollum, incumbent U.S. Representative

##### Eliminated in primary

* Diana Longrie, former Mayor of Maplewood (2005–2009)
* Brian Stalboerger

#### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Betty McCollum (incumbent) | 27,291 | 84.2 |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Diana Longrie | 3,212 | 9.9 |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Brian Stalboerger | 1,913 | 5.9 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 32,416 | 100.0 |

### Republican primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Tony Hernandez, businessman and candidate for Senate in 2012

##### Eliminated in primary

* Ron Seiford, adjunct business instructor at Globe College

##### Withdrawn

* Dan Flood, retired Navy officer

##### Declined

* Michele Bachmann, incumbent U.S. Representative for the 6th district

#### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Tony Hernandez | 6,876 | 64.1 |
| | Republican | Ron Seiford | 3,856 | 35.9 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 10,732 | 100.0 |

### Independence primary
#### Candidates

* Steve Carlson

#### Results

Independence primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Independence | Steve Carlson | 545 | 100.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 545 | 100.0 |

### General election
#### Endorsements

Labor unions
* AFL-CIO
* American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
* Education Minnesota
* National Association of Letter Carriers
* National Education Association
* Service Employees International Union
* United Steelworkers
Organizations
* Citizens for Global Solutions
* Clean Water Action
* Feminist Majority
* Humane Society of the United States
* J Street
* National Organization for Women
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund
* Sierra Club
* Stonewall Democrats
Organizations
* Republican Liberty Caucus

#### Results

Minnesota's 4th congressional district, 2012 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Betty McCollum (incumbent) | 216,685 | 62.3 |
| | Republican | Tony Hernandez | 109,659 | 31.5 |
| | Independence | Steve Carlson | 21,135 | 6.1 |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 512 | 0.1 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 347,991 | 100.0 |
| | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold |

## District 5

Minnesota's 5th congressional district has been represented by Democrat Keith Ellison since 2007. Gary Boisclair, an anti-abortion activist, and Gregg Iverson unsuccessfully challenged Ellison in the Democratic primary. In redistricting, the 5th district was expanded to include parts of Brooklyn Center, Edina and Minnetonka, and continued to strongly favor Democrats.

### Democratic primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Keith Ellison, incumbent U.S. Representative

##### Eliminated in primary

* Gary Boisclair, anti-abortion activist
* Gregg A. Iverson

#### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Keith Ellison (incumbent) | 30,609 | 89.6 |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Gregg A. Iverson | 2,143 | 6.3 |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Gary Boisclair | 1,397 | 4.1 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 34,149 | 100.0 |

### Republican primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Chris Fields, retired U.S. Marine

#### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Chris Fields | 5,966 | 100.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 5,966 | 100.0 |

### General election
#### Endorsements

Labor unions
* AFL-CIO
* Education Minnesota
* National Association of Letter Carriers
* National Education Association
Organizations
* Clean Water Action
* Feminist Majority
* Humane Society of the United States
* J Street
* NARAL Pro-Choice America
* National Organization for Women
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund
* Sierra Club
* Stonewall Democrats
Organizations
* Republican Liberty Caucus

#### Results

Ellison easily defeated Fields, carrying about 75% of the vote.
Minnesota's 5th congressional district, 2012 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Keith Ellison (incumbent) | 262,102 | 74.5 |
| | Republican | Chris Fields | 88,753 | 25.2 |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 1,114 | 0.3 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 351,969 | 100.0 |
| | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold |

## District 6

Michele Bachmann, who had represented Minnesota's 6th congressional district since 2007 and unsuccessfully sought the Republican presidential nomination in 2012, sought re-election.
In redistricting, the 6th district was expanded to include Carver County and was made more favorable to Republicans.

### Republican primary

Ron Seiford, an adjunct business instructor at Woodbury's Globe College, and Aubrey Immelman unsuccessfully challenged her in the Republican nomination, though Bachmann won by the lowest margin of any incumbent Republican congressional candidate in 50 years.

#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Michele Bachmann, incumbent U.S. Representative

##### Eliminated in primary

* Aubrey Immelman, candidate for this seat in 2008
* Stephen Thompson

##### Withdrawn

* Ron Seiford, adjunct business instructor at Globe College

#### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Michele Bachmann (incumbent) | 14,569 | 80.3 |
| | Republican | Stephen Thompson | 2,322 | 12.8 |
| | Republican | Aubrey Immelman | 1,242 | 6.9 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 18,133 | 100.0 |

### Democratic primary

Jim Graves, a hotel executive, won the Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party nomination at the party's convention in April 2012.

#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Jim Graves, hotel executive

##### Withdrawn

* Brian McGoldrick, businessman
* Anne Nolan, attorney and business consultant
* Mike Starr, substitute teacher

#### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Jim Graves | 8,600 | 100.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 8,600 | 100.0 |

### General election
#### Endorsements

Organizations
* Campaign for Working Families
* Eagle Forum
* Maggie's List
* National Right to Life Committee
* NRA Political Victory Fund
* Susan B. Anthony List
* United States Chamber of Commerce
Labor unions
* AFL-CIO
* American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
* Education Minnesota
* National Association of Letter Carriers
* National Education Association
* Service Employees International Union
* United Steelworkers
Organizations
* Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program

#### Debates

* Complete video of debate, November 4, 2012

#### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Michele Bachmann (R) | Jim Graves (D) | Undecided |
| Pulse Opinion Research | October 16, 2012 | 1,000 | ±3.0% | 51% | 45% | 6% |
| SurveyUSA | October 9–11, 2012 | 598 | ±4.1% | 50% | 41% | 9% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Graves (D) | October 4–5, 2012 | 403 | ±4.9% | 47% | 45% | 7% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Graves (D) | August 29–30, 2012 | 401 | ±?% | 48% | 46% | 6% |
| Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research Graves (D) | June 12–14, 2012 | 505 | ±4.4% | 48% | 43% | 9% |

#### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Lean R | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg | Lean R | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call | Lean R | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Likely R | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times | Safe R | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP | Lean R | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill | Lean R | November 4, 2012 |

#### Results

Bachmann narrowly retained the seat, receiving 4,298 more votes than Graves.
Minnesota's 6th congressional district, 2012 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Michele Bachmann (incumbent) | 179,240 | 50.5 |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Jim Graves | 174,944 | 49.3 |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 969 | 0.2 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 355,153 | 100.0 |
| | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold | Republican hold |

## District 7

Democrat Collin Peterson, who had represented Minnesota's 7th congressional district since 1991, sought re-election. In redistricting, the 7th district was expanded to include rural counties in southern Minnesota, while cities were moved from the 6th and 8th districts into the 7th.

### Democratic primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Collin Peterson, incumbent U.S. Representative

### Republican primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Lee Byberg, business executive and nominee for this seat in 2010

##### Withdrawn

* Gretchen Hoffman, state senator

### General election
#### Endorsements

Labor unions
* AFL-CIO
* American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
* Education Minnesota
* National Association of Letter Carriers
* National Education Association
* United Steelworkers
Organizations
* NRA Political Victory Fund
Organizations
* Campaign for Working Families
* Republican Liberty Caucus

#### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg | Safe D | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call | Safe D | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Safe D | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times | Safe D | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP | Safe D | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill | Likely D | November 4, 2012 |

#### Results

Minnesota's 7th congressional district, 2012 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Collin C. Peterson (incumbent) | 197,791 | 60.4 |
| | Republican | Lee Byberg | 114,151 | 34.8 |
| | Independence | Adam Steele | 15,298 | 4.7 |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 336 | 0.1 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 327,576 | 100.0 |
| | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold | Democratic (DFL) hold |

## District 8

Republican Chip Cravaack, who was first elected to represent Minnesota's 8th congressional district in 2010, sought re-election.
In redistricting, the 8th district was not significantly changed and remained competitive.

### Republican primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Chip Cravaack, incumbent U.S. Representative

#### Results

Republican primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Republican | Chip Cravaack (incumbent) | 20,471 | 100.0 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 20,471 | 100.0 |

### Democratic primary
#### Candidates
##### Nominee

* Richard Nolan, former U.S. Representative from Minnesota's 6th congressional district (1975–1981)

##### Eliminated in primary

* Jeff Anderson, former Duluth City Councilor (2007–2011)
* Tarryl Clark, former state senator from senate district 15 (2006–2011) and nominee for the 6th district in 2010

##### Withdrawn

* Daniel Fanning, former deputy state director for Senator Al Franken

##### Declined

* Tom Bakk, State senate minority leader
* Carly Melin, State representative
* Don Ness,Mayor of Duluth
* Roger Reinert, state senator
* Tom Rukavina, state representative
* Tony Sertich, former state house majority leader
* Yvonne Prettner Solon, incumbent Lieutenant Governor

#### Campaign

Nolan was victorious in a February 2012 caucus, receiving 1,537 votes to Anderson's 1,008 and Clark's 408. 269 uncommitted votes were cast.
Delegates to a convention held in May 2012 could endorse one candidate, but candidates who did not receive the party's endorsement were nonetheless able to run in the August 2012 primary.

#### Endorsements

Labor unions
* United Steelworkers
Organizations
* EMILY's List
* Feminist Majority
* National Organization for Women

#### Results

Democratic primary results :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Richard Nolan | 20,840 | 38.3 |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Tarryl L. Clark | 17,554 | 32.2 |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Jeff Anderson | 16,035 | 29.5 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 54,429 | 100.0 |

### General election
#### Endorsements

Organizations
* Campaign for Working Families
* Gun Owners of America
* National Republican Congressional Committee "Patriot" Program
* National Right to Life Committee
* NRA Political Victory Fund
* United States Chamber of Commerce
Labor unions
* AFL-CIO
* American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees
* Education Minnesota
* National Association of Letter Carriers
* National Education Association
* Service Employees International Union
Organizations
* Council for a Livable World
* Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee "Red to Blue" Program
* Planned Parenthood Action Fund
* Progressive Change Campaign Committee

#### Debates

* Complete video of debate, October 12, 2012

#### Polling

| Poll source | Date(s) administered | Sample size | Margin of error | Chip Cravaack (R) | Rick Nolan (D) | Undecided |
| SurveyUSA | November 1–3, 2012 | 585 | ±4.1% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Public Policy Polling | October 25–26, 2012 | 1,020 | ±3.8% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| OnMessage (R-Cravaack) | October 24–25, 2012 | 400 | ±4.9% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Pulse Opinion Research | October 16, 2012 | 1,000 | ±3.0% | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Victoria Research (D-Nolan) | October 7–8, 2012 | 400 | ±4.9% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| Global Strategy (D-DCCC) | October 4–7, 2012 | 405 | ±4.9% | 42% | 42% | 16% |
| SurveyUSA | September 6–9, 2012 | 578 | ±4.3% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| GBA Strategies (D-House Majority PAC) | August 26–27, 2012 | 400 | ±4.9% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Global Strategy (D-DCCC) | August 21–29, 2012 | 400 | ±4.9% | 44% | 45% | 11% |

#### Predictions

| Source | Ranking | As of |
| The Cook Political Report | Tossup | November 5, 2012 |
| Rothenberg | Tossup | November 2, 2012 |
| Roll Call | Tossup | November 4, 2012 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2012 |
| NY Times | Tossup | November 4, 2012 |
| RCP | Tossup | November 4, 2012 |
| The Hill | Tossup | November 4, 2012 |

#### Results

Nolan triumphed over Cravaack, receiving 54% of the vote.
Minnesota's 8th congressional district, 2012 :
| Party | Party | Candidate | Votes | % |
| | Democratic (DFL) | Rick Nolan | 191,976 | 54.3 |
| | Republican | Chip Cravaack (incumbent) | 160,520 | 45.4 |
| | Write-in | Write-in | 1,167 | 0.3 |
| Total votes | Total votes | Total votes | 353,663 | 100.0 |
| | Democratic (DFL) gain from Republican | Democratic (DFL) gain from Republican | Democratic (DFL) gain from Republican | Democratic (DFL) gain from Republican |