# 2007 Lisbon local by-election

The 2007 Lisbon local by-election was held on 15 July 2007 to elect a new mayor and members of the Lisbon City Council, in order to complete the term started in 2005 following the collapse of Mayor Carmona Rodrigues' local government.
In the first, and still only, mayoral by-election in Lisbon's history, António Costa, by then Minister of Internal Administration under Prime Minister José Sócrates, was elected with almost 30 percent of the votes, electing six councillors, and would complete the term started in 2005 and to be finished by 2009.
The election resulted in a very fragmented local council, with former mayor Carmona Rodrigues Independent movement, Lisbon with Carmona, polling second with around 17 percent of the votes and electing 3 councillors. The Social Democratic Party (PSD) suffered a massive defeat, polling third with less than 16 percent of the votes, a loss of 27 percentage points compared with 2005, and electing only 3 councilors, a loss of five.
Another independent led by Helena Roseta, called Citizens for Lisbon, that congregated center-left to leftwing movements, gathered more than 10 percent of the votes and elected two councillors. The Unitary Democratic Coalition presented Ruben de Carvalho as their mayoral candidate and won 9 percent of the votes and retained the two seats from 2005. The Left Bloc presented José Sá Fernandes as candidate for Mayor, which was reelected as councillor. The CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) was wiped out from Lisbon City Council.
Turnout was the lowest ever, with just 36.7 percent of voters casting a ballot, a drop of 16 percentage points compared with 2005.

## Background

In the 2005 election, the Social Democratic Party led by Carmona Rodrigues, won a landslide victory with 42 percent of the votes and 8 councillors, defeating the Socialist Party candidate, Manuel Maria Carrilho, by a wide margin, which only gain 26.6 percent of the votes and 5 councillors. CDU won 2 councillors, while BE and CDS–PP gained just one.
By 2007, a crisis in the management of the city erupted because of urban development plans regarding a company called Bragaparques. These plans were highly controversial and led to an investigation by the Public Prosecution Office. Then PSD leader, Luís Marques Mendes withdrew his support from Carmona and asked PSD councillors to resign, which led to the fall of Carmona's local government and the calling of a by-election.

## Electoral system

Each party or coalition must present a list of candidates. The lists are closed and the seats in each municipality are apportioned according to the D'Hondt method. Unlike in national legislative elections, independent lists are allowed to run.

## Parties and candidates

| Party/Coalition | Party/Coalition | Party/Coalition | Political position | Candidate | 2005 result | 2005 result |
| Party/Coalition | Party/Coalition | Party/Coalition | Political position | Candidate | Votes (%) | Seats |
| | PPD/PSD | Social Democratic Party Partido Social Democrata | Centre-right | Fernando Negrão | 42.4% | 8 / 17 |
| | PS | Socialist Party Partido Socialista | Centre-left | António Costa | 26.6% | 5 / 17 |
| | CDU | Unitary Democratic Coalition Coligação Democrática Unitária PCP, PEV | Left-wing to far-left | Ruben de Carvalho | 11.4% | 2 / 17 |
| | BE | Left Bloc Bloco de Esquerda | Left-wing to far-left | José Sá Fernandes | 7.9% | 1 / 17 |
| | CDS–PP | CDS – People's Party CDS – Partido Popular | Right-wing | Telmo Correia | 5.9% | 1 / 17 |
| | PCTP | Portuguese Workers' Communist Party Partido Comunista dos Trabalhadores Portugueses | Far-left | António Garcia Pereira | 1.0% | 0 / 17 |
| | PNR | National Renovator Party Partido Nacional Renovador | Far-right | José Pinto Coelho | 0.3% | 0 / 17 |
| | PND | New Democracy Party Partido Nova Democracia | Right-wing | Manuel Monteiro | — | — |
| | PPM | People's Monarchist Party Partido Popular Democrático | Right-wing | Gonçalo da Câmara Pereira | — | — |
| | MPT | Earth Party Partido da Terra | Centre-right | Pedro Quartin Graça | — | — |
| | LCC | Lisbon with Carmona Lisboa com Carmona | Centre-right | Carmona Rodrigues | — | — |
| | CPL | Citizens for Lisbon Cidadãos por Lisboa | Centre-left | Helena Roseta | — | — |

## Opinion polling
### Polling

Exit poll
| Polling firm/Link | Fieldwork date | Sample size | PSD | PS | CDU | BE | CDS | LCC | CPL | O | Lead |
| 2007 local by-election | 15 Jul 2007 | — | 15.8 3 | 29.5 6 | 9.4 2 | 6.8 1 | 3.7 0 | 16.6 3 | 10.2 2 | 8.0 0 | 12.9 |
| UCP–CESOP | 15 Jul 2007 | ? | 12.0– 15.0 2/3 | 29.0– 34.0 6 | 9.0– 11.0 2 | 7.0– 9.0 1 | 2.0– 4.0 0 | 15.0– 19.0 3/4 | 10.0– 12.0 2 | – | 14.0– 15.0 |
| Aximage | 11–12 Jul 2007 | 780 | 16.3 | 34.2 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 2.5 | 16.9 | 9.5 | 5.6 | 17.3 |
| Intercampus | 6–11 Jul 2007 | 959 | 15.1 | 37.1 | 13.6 | 7.4 | 2.4 | 16.0 | 4.5 | 3.9 | 21.1 |
| Marktest | 10 Jul 2007 | 610 | 12.3 | 32.0 | 7.0 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 15.8 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 16.2 |
| Eurosondagem | 8–10 Jul 2007 | 1,559 | 18.4 | 32.5 | 7.7 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 15.9 | 12.1 | 3.9 | 14.1 |
| CESOP–UCP | 7–10 Jul 2007 | 2,023 | 15 | 33 | 9 | 8 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 18 |
| Marktest | 3–4 Jul 2007 | 605 | 13.3 | 34.1 | 7.7 | 6.5 | 1.5 | 15.5 | 14.3 | 7.1 | 18.6 |
| Intercampus | 29 Jun–4 Jul 2007 | 800 | 17.5 | 34.7 | 12.2 | 6.0 | 3.2 | 14.9 | 6.5 | 5.0 | 17.2 |
| Aximage | 18–20 Jun 2007 | 550 | 14.1 | 39.8 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 15.0 | 11.0 | 3.3 | 24.8 |
| Intercampus | 8–13 Jun 2007 | 804 | 19.5 | 31.1 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 2.5 | 13.7 | 9.1 | 5.4 | 11.6 |
| Data Crítica | 28–29 May 2007 | 600 | 18.6 | 37.4 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 16.0 | 17.0 | 0.5 | 18.8 |
| Eurosondagem | 21–23 May 2007 | 1,525 | 14.8 | 32.1 | 6.3 | 5.0 | 3.8 | 16.9 | 15.9 | 5.2 | 15.2 |
| Marktest | 16–17 May 2007 | 600 | 12.1 | 32.0 | 7.8 | 6.4 | 1.1 | 19.9 | 17.2 | 3.6 | 12.1 |
| 2005 local election | 10 Oct 2005 | — | 42.4 8 | 26.6 5 | 11.4 2 | 7.9 1 | 5.9 1 | — | — | 5.8 0 | 15.8 |

## Results
### Municipal Council

Summary of the 15 July 2007 Lisbon City Council by-election results :
| 126233 |||||||||||
| Parties | Parties | Votes | % | ±pp swing | Councillors | Councillors |
| Parties | Parties | Votes | % | ±pp swing | Total | ± |
| | Socialist | 56,732 | 29.49 | 2.9 | 6 | 1 |
| | Lisbon with Carmona | 31,990 | 16.63 | — | 3 | — |
| | Social Democratic | 30,401 | 15.80 | 26.6 | 3 | 5 |
| | Citizens for Lisbon | 19,754 | 10.27 | — | 2 | — |
| | Unitary Democratic Coalition | 18,163 | 9.44 | 2.0 | 2 | 0 |
| | Left Bloc | 13,132 | 6.83 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| | People's | 7,148 | 3.72 | 2.2 | 0 | 1 |
| | Portuguese Workers' Communist | 3,021 | 1.57 | 0.6 | 0 | 0 |
| | National Renovator | 1,599 | 0.83 | 0.5 | 0 | 0 |
| | New Democracy | 1,182 | 0.61 | — | 0 | — |
| | Earth | 1,019 | 0.53 | — | 0 | — |
| | People's Monarchist | 730 | 0.30 | — | 0 | — |
| Total valid | Total valid | 184,871 | 96.11 | 0.5 | 17 | 0 |
| Blank ballots | Blank ballots | 4,622 | 2.40 | 0.5 | | |
| Invalid ballots | Invalid ballots | 2,861 | 1.49 | 0.2 | | |
| Total | Total | 192,354 | 100.00 | | | |
| Registered voters/turnout | Registered voters/turnout | 524,140 | 36.70 | 16.0 | | |
| Source: Lisbon 2007 election results |||||||||||