Skill: mofesto/successful-trader (version 0.1.0)

--- name: Successful Trader description: Comprehensive guidance and methodologies for becoming a successful trader, covering strategy development, risk management, technical analysis, and trading psychology --- # Successful Trader Skill This skill provides you with structured methodologies and best practices for trading success. Use this when assisting users with trading strategies, market analysis, risk management, or developing trading systems. ## Core Trading Principles ### 1. Risk Management (Most Critical) - **Never risk more than 1-2% of capital per trade** - **Position sizing formula**: Risk Amount / (Entry Price - Stop Loss) = Position Size - **Use stop-loss orders on every trade** - no exceptions - **Risk/Reward ratio**: Aim for minimum 1:2 (risk $1 to potentially make $2) - **Maximum daily loss limit**: Stop trading if you hit 3-5% daily loss - **Diversification**: Don't put all capital in one asset or sector ### 2. Trading Plan Development Every trader must have a written trading plan that includes: ```markdown ## My Trading Plan ### Trading Goals - Short-term (3 months): [Specific, measurable goals] - Medium-term (1 year): [Specific, measurable goals] - Long-term (3+ years): [Specific, measurable goals] ### Markets & Instruments - Primary markets: [e.g., Stocks, Forex, Crypto, Futures] - Specific instruments: [e.g., SPY, AAPL, EUR/USD] - Why these markets: [Your reasoning] ### Trading Style - [ ] Day Trading (positions closed same day) - [ ] Swing Trading (positions held days to weeks) - [ ] Position Trading (positions held weeks to months) - [ ] Scalping (very short-term, seconds to minutes) ### Entry Criteria 1. [Specific technical indicator condition] 2. [Specific price action pattern] 3. [Fundamental catalyst if applicable] 4. [Confirmation signal] ### Exit Criteria - **Stop Loss**: [How you determine it] - **Take Profit**: [How you determine targets] - **Trailing Stop**: [If/when to use] - **Time-based exit**: [Maximum holding period] ### Risk Parameters - Max risk per trade: [e.g., 1%] - Max daily loss: [e.g., 3%] - Max weekly loss: [e.g., 6%] - Position size calculation: [Your method] ### Trading Schedule - Trading hours: [Specific times] - Market review: [When and how often] - Journal review: [Daily/Weekly] ``` ### 3. Technical Analysis Framework #### Chart Patterns to Master - **Reversal Patterns**: Head & Shoulders, Double Top/Bottom, Triangles - **Continuation Patterns**: Flags, Pennants, Rectangles - **Candlestick Patterns**: Doji, Engulfing, Hammer, Shooting Star #### Key Technical Indicators 1. **Trend Indicators** - Moving Averages (20, 50, 200 SMA/EMA) - MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) - ADX (Average Directional Index) 2. **Momentum Indicators** - RSI (Relative Strength Index) - identify overbought/oversold - Stochastic Oscillator - CCI (Commodity Channel Index) 3. **Volume Indicators** - Volume Profile - On-Balance Volume (OBV) - Volume Moving Average 4. **Volatility Indicators** - Bollinger Bands - ATR (Average True Range) - for stop-loss placement #### Multi-Timeframe Analysis - **Higher timeframe (Daily/Weekly)**: Identify overall trend direction - **Entry timeframe (4H/1H)**: Find entry setups within the trend - **Lower timeframe (15m/5m)**: Fine-tune entry and exit points ### 4. Fundamental Analysis (For Medium to Long-term Trading) #### For Stocks - **Financial Metrics**: P/E ratio, EPS growth, Revenue growth, Debt-to-Equity - **Company Health**: Cash flow, Profit margins, ROE (Return on Equity) - **Industry Analysis**: Sector trends, competitive position, market share - **Macroeconomic Factors**: Interest rates, GDP, inflation, employment data #### For Forex - **Interest Rate Differentials**: Central bank policies - **Economic Indicators**: GDP, inflation, employment, trade balance - **Geopolitical Events**: Elections, policy changes, international relations #### For Cryptocurrency - **Tokenomics**: Supply, distribution, utility, burn mechanisms - **Development Activity**: GitHub commits, roadmap progress - **Adoption Metrics**: Active addresses, transaction volume, TVL - **Market Sentiment**: Social media trends, institutional interest ### 5. Trading Psychology & Discipline #### Mental Framework - **Accept losses as part of the process** - Focus on probability, not certainty - **Remove emotion from trading** - Follow your system mechanically - **Avoid revenge trading** - Never try to "win back" losses immediately - **Stay humble** - Markets can humble anyone at any time - **Continuous learning** - Always be improving and adapting #### Common Psychological Traps to Avoid 1. **FOMO (Fear of Missing Out)**: Chasing trades that already moved 2. **Overtrading**: Trading out of boredom or need for action 3. **Confirmation Bias**: Only seeing data that supports your position 4. **Averaging Down**: Adding to losing positions without a plan 5. **Letting Winners Turn to Losers**: Not taking profits or using trailing stops 6. **Analysis Paralysis**: Over-analyzing and missing opportunities #### Daily Mental Routine ```markdown ## Pre-Market Routine - [ ] Review trading plan - [ ] Check economic calendar for major events - [ ] Identify key support/resistance levels - [ ] Set risk limits for the day - [ ] Mental preparation (meditation, affirmations) ## During Trading - [ ] Follow your system without deviation - [ ] Take breaks between trades - [ ] Stay hydrated and focused - [ ] Record trade decisions in real-time ## Post-Market Routine - [ ] Complete trading journal - [ ] Review trades (both wins and losses) - [ ] Calculate P&L and statistics - [ ] Identify what you did well and areas to improve - [ ] Prepare for next session ``` ### 6. Trading Journal (Essential Tool) Create a detailed journal entry for EVERY trade: ```markdown ## Trade #[NUMBER] - [DATE] ### Pre-Trade - **Asset**: [Symbol] - **Direction**: Long/Short - **Entry Price**: $[X] - **Position Size**: [X shares/contracts] - **Risk Amount**: $[X] ([X]% of account) - **Stop Loss**: $[X] - **Take Profit Target(s)**: $[X], $[X] - **Risk/Reward Ratio**: 1:[X] ### Trade Rationale [Why did you take this trade? What setup did you see?] Technical reasons: - [Indicator signals] - [Chart patterns] - [Support/Resistance levels] Fundamental reasons (if applicable): - [News/earnings/events] ### Emotional State - Pre-trade feeling: [Confident/Uncertain/Excited/Anxious] - During trade: [Calm/Stressed/Impulsive] - Post-trade: [Satisfied/Regret/Learning] ### Post-Trade Analysis - **Exit Price**: $[X] - **Exit Reason**: [Hit target/Stop loss/Manual exit/Time-based] - **Actual P&L**: $[X] ([X]%) - **Duration**: [X hours/days] ### What Went Right 1. [Specific things you did well] 2. [Process adherence] 3. [Timing, execution, etc.] ### What Went Wrong 1. [Mistakes made] 2. [Deviations from plan] 3. [Missed signals] ### Lessons Learned [Key takeaways to apply to future trades] ### Screenshot/Chart [Attach entry and exit chart screenshots] ``` ### 7. Key Performance Metrics to Track #### Essential KPIs - **Win Rate**: (Winning Trades / Total Trades) × 100 - **Average Win**: Total Profit / Number of Winning Trades - **Average Loss**: Total Loss / Number of Losing Trades - **Profit Factor**: Gross Profit / Gross Loss (should be > 1.5) - **Expectancy**: (Win Rate × Avg Win) - (Loss Rate × Avg Loss) - **Maximum Drawdown**: Largest peak-to-trough decline - **Sharpe Ratio**: Risk-adjusted returns (> 1.0 is good) - **Recovery Factor**: Net Profit / Max Drawdown #### Monthly Review Questions 1. What was my overall P&L? 2. What was my best trade and why? 3. What was my worst trade and why? 4. Did I follow my trading plan consistently? 5. What patterns do I notice in my winning trades? 6. What patterns do I notice in my losing trades? 7. What should I adjust for next month? ## Trading Strategy Templates ### Strategy 1: Trend Following ``` 1. Identify trend on daily chart (price above 200 SMA = uptrend) 2. Wait for pullback to 20 or 50 EMA 3. Look for reversal candlestick pattern at EMA 4. Enter long when price breaks above reversal candle high 5. Stop loss: Below recent swing low or 1.5× ATR 6. Take profit: 2× risk amount or at next resistance ``` ### Strategy 2: Breakout Trading ``` 1. Identify consolidation pattern (triangle, rectangle, flag) 2. Mark resistance (for upside breakout) or support (for downside) 3. Wait for volume spike + candle close beyond pattern 4. Enter on retest of broken level or immediate breakout 5. Stop loss: Inside the pattern or below breakout candle 6. Take profit: Pattern height projected from breakout point ``` ### Strategy 3: Mean Reversion ``` 1. Identify range-bound market (ADX < 25) 2. Wait for price to reach upper or lower Bollinger Band 3. Confirm with RSI oversold (<30) or overbought (>70) 4. Enter when price shows rejection (e.g., pin bar, engulfing) 5. Stop loss: Beyond the band extreme 6. Take profit: Middle Bollinger Band (20 SMA) ``` ## Risk Management Formulas ### Position Size Calculator ``` Account Size: $10,000 Risk Per Trade: 1% = $100 Entry Price: $50 Stop Loss: $48 Risk Per Share: $50 - $48 = $2 Position Size = Risk Amount / Risk Per Share Position Size = $100 / $2 = 50 shares Total Position Value = 50 × $50 = $2,500 ``` ### Kelly Criterion (Advanced Position Sizing) ``` Kelly % = W - [(1 - W) / R] Where: W = Win rate (e.g., 0.55 for 55%) R = Average Win / Average Loss ratio (e.g., 2) Example: Kelly % = 0.55 - [(1 - 0.55) / 2] Kelly % = 0.55 - 0.225 = 0.325 or 32.5% Note: Use 1/4 to 1/2 of Kelly % for conservative sizing Recommended position = 8-16% of account in this example ``` ## Common Mistakes to Avoid ### Fatal Errors 1. ❌ **No stop loss** - Always use stops 2. ❌ **Risking too much** - Never exceed 2% per trade 3. ❌ **No trading plan** - You're gambling, not trading 4. ❌ **Revenge trading** - Emotional decisions after losses 5. ❌ **Overleverage** - Using excessive margin/leverage 6. ❌ **Ignoring fees** - Commissions and slippage eat profits 7. ❌ **Trading against trend** - Trend is your friend 8. ❌ **No journaling** - Can't improve what you don't track ### Rookie Mistakes - Checking positions constantly (leads to emotional decisions) - Moving stop losses further away when price approaches them - Taking profits too early on winners but letting losers run - Trading too many markets or instruments at once - Following "hot tips" from social media or chat rooms - Not accounting for bid-ask spread and slippage - Trading during low liquidity hours - Ignoring major news events that can cause volatility ## Market Conditions & Adaptation ### Bull Market (Rising prices, optimism) - Focus on buying dips - Trend following strategies excel - Hold winners longer - Reduce short positions ### Bear Market (Falling prices, pessimism) - Focus on shorting rallies or staying cash - Mean reversion at support levels - Tighter profit targets - Increase cash allocation ### Sideways/Range Market (Choppy, no clear trend) - Mean reversion strategies work best - Sell at resistance, buy at support - Avoid trend-following systems - Reduce position sizes (harder to predict) ### High Volatility - Reduce position sizes (wider stops needed) - Increase profit targets (bigger moves available) - Be prepared for gaps and slippage - Consider options strategies for protection ### Low Volatility - May need to use leverage carefully for adequate returns - Tighter stops possible - Breakout strategies may underperform - Consider switching timeframes ## Tools & Resources ### Essential Trading Tools 1. **Charting Platform**: TradingView, ThinkorSwim, MetaTrader 2. **Broker**: Choose regulated broker with low fees, good execution 3. **Economic Calendar**: ForexFactory, Investing.com 4. **Journaling**: Edgewonk, TraderSync, or Excel template 5. **Screening**: Finviz, TradingView screener 6. **Backtesting**: TradingView, AmiBroker, Python libraries ### Recommended Learning Resources - **Books**: - "Trading in the Zone" by Mark Douglas (Psychology) - "Market Wizards" by Jack Schwager (Interviews) - "Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets" by John Murphy - "Reminiscences of a Stock Operator" by Edwin Lefèvre - **Courses**: Focus on price action, risk management, psychology - **Practice**: Paper trading for at least 3 months before live money ## When to Use This Skill Apply this skill when: - Developing trading systems or strategies for users - Analyzing market conditions and providing trading insights - Creating trading bots or algorithmic trading systems - Building risk management calculators - Analyzing trading performance and statistics - Providing education on trading concepts - Reviewing and critiquing trading plans - Helping with trading journal templates - Creating trading dashboards or analytics tools ## Implementation Checklist When helping a user with trading-related tasks: - [ ] Emphasize risk management first and foremost - [ ] Encourage creation of a written trading plan - [ ] Recommend paper trading before live trading - [ ] Stress the importance of journaling every trade - [ ] Provide specific, measurable criteria (not vague advice) - [ ] Include position sizing calculations - [ ] Consider the user's risk tolerance and experience level - [ ] Warn against common psychological pitfalls - [ ] Suggest backtesting before deploying strategies - [ ] Reference specific tools and resources when relevant ## Important Disclaimers **Always include appropriate disclaimers when discussing trading:** > ⚠️ **Trading Risk Warning**: Trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Never invest more than you can afford to lose. This information is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and consider consulting with a licensed financial advisor. --- Remember: **The goal is not to predict the market, but to manage risk and follow a proven process consistently.**


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