Skill: diagnostikon/kalshi-f1-elimination-trader (version 1.0.4)

--- name: kalshi-f1-elimination-trader description: Trades F1 Drivers Championship markets on Kalshi by identifying mathematically eliminated drivers still priced above zero. Sells NO on eliminated drivers for guaranteed edge. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: Kalshi F1 Elimination Trader difficulty: intermediate homepage: "https://simmer.markets/skills" repository: "https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk" requires_env: "SIMMER_API_KEY" requires_pip: "simmer-sdk" default_mode: "paper" live_flag: "--live" --- # Kalshi F1 Elimination Trader > **This is a template.** > The default signal uses static championship standings -- remix it with live F1 API data for real-time elimination detection as races complete. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha. ## Strategy Overview As the F1 season progresses, drivers become mathematically eliminated from the championship. A driver is eliminated when their maximum possible points (current + MAX_POINTS_PER_RACE * remaining races) is less than the leader's current total. Yet Kalshi markets often still price eliminated drivers above 0% -- this is free money. Key advantages: - **Mathematical certainty** -- elimination is a provable fact, not a prediction - **Low entry edge** -- even 3% market price on an eliminated driver is pure edge - **Markets lag reality** -- retail traders forget to update stale positions - **Zero-risk thesis** -- the only risk is execution/timing, not model error ## Signal Logic ### Elimination Detection 1. Track championship standings (points per driver) 2. Calculate remaining races in the season 3. For each driver: `max_possible = current_points + 26 * remaining_races` 4. Driver is eliminated if `max_possible < leader_points` 5. If eliminated AND market price > entry_edge -> BUY NO ### Points per Race | Component | Points | |-----------|--------| | Win | 25 | | Fastest lap | 1 | | **Max per race** | **26** | ### Conviction-Based Sizing - `conviction = min(market_price / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0` - `size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)` - Higher market price on eliminated driver = more conviction = larger position ## Risk Parameters | Parameter | Default | Notes | |-----------|---------|-------| | Entry edge | 3% | Min market price on eliminated driver to trade | | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this | | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market | | Max trades per run | 5 | Rate limiting | | Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds | | Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default | ## Installation & Setup ```bash clawhub install kalshi-f1-elimination-trader ``` Requires: `SIMMER_API_KEY` and `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` environment variables. ## Cron Schedule Cron is set to `null` -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. ## Safety & Execution Mode **The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when `--live` is passed explicitly.** | Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |----------|------|----------------| | `python trader.py` | Dry run | None | | Cron / automaton | Dry run | None | | `python trader.py --live` | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC | ## Required Credentials | Variable | Required | Notes | |----------|----------|-------| | `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. | | `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. | ## Tunables (Risk Parameters) | Variable | Default | Purpose | |----------|---------|---------| | `SIMMER_F1_ELIM_ENTRY_EDGE` | `0.03` | Min market price on eliminated driver to trade | | `SIMMER_F1_ELIM_EXIT_THRESHOLD` | `0.45` | Sell position when price reaches this level | | `SIMMER_F1_ELIM_MAX_POSITION_USD` | `5.00` | Max USDC per trade | | [REDACTED_SECRET] | `5` | Max trades per execution cycle | | `SIMMER_F1_ELIM_SLIPPAGE_MAX` | `0.15` | Max slippage before skipping trade | | `SIMMER_F1_ELIM_MIN_LIQUIDITY` | `0` | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) | ## Dependency `simmer-sdk` is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets. - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ - GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk - Publisher: [REDACTED_SECRET]


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: suspicious (CRITICAL)