Skill: tangweigang-jpg/arch-garch-volatility (version 0.3.3)

--- name: arch-garch-volatility description: |- 用 GARCH 族模型进行波动率建模与预测，支持夏普比率统计推断和 SPA 模型比较测试，应用于全球市场风险管理。 license: Proprietary. See LICENSE.txt in project root. compatibility: Designed for Doramagic-host ecosystem (Claude Code / openclaw / Cursor). Requires Python 3.12+ with uv package manager. metadata: version: "v6.1" blueprint_id: "finance-bp-124" compiled_at: "2026-04-22T13:01:01.570350+00:00" capability_markets: "global" capability_activities: "derivatives-pricing" sop_version: "crystal-compilation-v6.1" --- # GARCH 波动率模型 (arch-garch-volatility) > 用 GARCH 族模型进行波动率建模与预测，支持夏普比率统计推断和 SPA 模型比较测试，应用于全球市场风险管理。 ## Pipeline `data_collection -> data_storage -> factor_computation -> target_selection -> trading_execution -> visualization` ## Top Use Cases (9 total) ### Sharpe Ratio Bootstrap Statistical Inference (`UC-101`) Computes statistical inference (confidence intervals, standard errors) for the Sharpe Ratio using bootstrap methods to quantify uncertainty in risk-ad **Triggers**: bootstrap, sharpe ratio, statistical inference ### Multiple Model Comparison with SPA Test (`UC-102`) Compares 500 predictive models against a benchmark using the Superior Predictive Ability (SPA) test to determine if any models significantly outperfor **Triggers**: model comparison, SPA test, multiple models ### Oil Price Cointegration Analysis (`UC-103`) Tests for cointegration relationships between WTI and Brent crude oil prices to identify mean-reverting spread opportunities using Engle-Granger and P **Triggers**: cointegration, unit root, ADF test For all **9** use cases, see [references/USE_CASES.md](references/USE_CASES.md). **Execute trigger**: `When user intent matches intent_router.uc_entries[].positive_terms AND user uses action verb (run/execute/跑/执行/backtest/fetch/collect)` ## What I'll Ask You - Target market: A-share (default), HK, or crypto? (US stocks in ZVT are half-baked — stockus_nasdaq_AAPL exists but coverage is thin) - Data source / provider: eastmoney (free, no account), joinquant (account+paid), baostock (free, good history), akshare, or qmt (broker)? - Strategy type: MACD golden-cross, MA crossover, volume breakout, fundamental screen, or custom factor? - Time range: start_timestamp and end_timestamp for backtest period - Target entity IDs: specific stocks (stock_sh_600000) or index components (SZ1000)? ## Semantic Locks (Fatal) | ID | Rule | On Violation | |---|---|---| | `SL-01` | Execute sell orders before buy orders in every trading cycle | halt | | `SL-02` | Trading signals MUST use next-bar execution (no look-ahead) | halt | | `SL-03` | Entity IDs MUST follow format entity_type_exchange_code | halt | | `SL-04` | DataFrame index MUST be MultiIndex (entity_id, timestamp) | halt | | `SL-05` | TradingSignal MUST have EXACTLY ONE of: position_pct, order_money, order_amount | halt | | `SL-06` | filter_result column semantics: True=BUY, False=SELL, None/NaN=NO ACTION | halt | | `SL-07` | Transformer MUST run BEFORE Accumulator in factor pipeline | halt | | `SL-08` | MACD parameters locked: fast=12, slow=26, signal=9 | halt | Full lock definitions: [references/LOCKS.md](references/LOCKS.md) ## Top Anti-Patterns (15 total) - **`AP-DERIVATIVES-PRICING-001`**: Instrument NPV called without attached pricing engine - **`AP-DERIVATIVES-PRICING-002`**: BSM forward price ignores dividend yield - **`AP-DERIVATIVES-PRICING-003`**: Negative discount factors passed to log-domain interpolation All 15 anti-patterns: [references/ANTI_PATTERNS.md](references/ANTI_PATTERNS.md) ## Evidence Quality Notice > [QUALITY NOTICE] This crystal was compiled from blueprint finance-bp-124. Evidence verify ratio = 47.2% and audit fail total = 32. Generated results may have uncaptured requirement gaps. Verify critical decisions against source files (LATEST.yaml / LATEST.jsonl). ## Reference Files | File | Contents | When to Load | |---|---|---| | [references/seed.yaml](references/seed.yaml) | V6+ 全量权威 (source-of-truth) | 有行为/决策争议时必读 | | [references/ANTI_PATTERNS.md](references/ANTI_PATTERNS.md) | 15 条跨项目反模式 | 开始实现前 | | [references/WISDOM.md](references/WISDOM.md) | 跨项目精华借鉴 | 架构决策时 | | [references/CONSTRAINTS.md](references/CONSTRAINTS.md) | domain + fatal 约束 | 规则冲突时 | | [references/USE_CASES.md](references/USE_CASES.md) | 全量 KUC-* 业务场景 | 需要完整示例时 | | [references/LOCKS.md](references/LOCKS.md) | SL-* + preconditions + hints | 生成回测/交易代码前 | | [references/COMPONENTS.md](references/COMPONENTS.md) | AST 组件地图（按 module 拆分）| 查 API 时 | --- *Compiled by Doramagic crystal-compilation-v6.1 from `finance-bp-124` blueprint at 2026-04-22T13:01:01.570350+00:00.* *See [human_summary.md](human_summary.md) for non-technical overview.*


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: suspicious (CRITICAL)