Skill: diagnostikon/kalshi-crypto-momentum-trader (version 1.0.5)

--- name: kalshi-crypto-momentum-trader description: Uses 7-day and 30-day price trend extrapolation to trade crypto year-end price target markets on Kalshi. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: Kalshi Crypto Momentum Trader difficulty: advanced homepage: "https://simmer.markets/skills" repository: "https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk" requires_env: "SIMMER_API_KEY" requires_pip: "simmer-sdk" default_mode: "paper" live_flag: "--live" --- # Kalshi Crypto Momentum Trader > **This is a template.** > The default signal uses static 7d/30d momentum parameters -- remix it with live price API feeds, multiple timeframes, or volume-weighted momentum. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha. ## Strategy Overview Crypto markets on Kalshi price year-end targets. Price momentum (7d/30d trends) is a strong predictor of whether targets will be reached. This skill extrapolates recent price trends to compute probability that each target is hit by year-end. ## Signal Logic ### Momentum Trend Model 1. Compute 7-day and 30-day price change ratios for BTC/ETH 2. Extrapolate current trend to year-end using exponential projection 3. Compute probability of reaching each price target under trend assumption 4. Compare model probability to Kalshi market price 5. Trade when `|model - market| >= entry_edge` ### Remix Ideas - **Live price API**: CoinGecko/Binance for real-time trend computation - **Multiple timeframe ensemble**: 1d, 7d, 30d, 90d momentum signals - **Volume-weighted momentum**: Higher conviction when volume confirms - **Mean-reversion overlay**: Dampen extreme trend signals ## Risk Parameters | Parameter | Default | Notes | |-----------|---------|-------| | Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade | | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this | | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market | | Max trades per run | 3 | Rate limiting | | Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds | | Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default | ## Installation & Setup ```bash clawhub install kalshi-crypto-momentum-trader ``` Requires: `SIMMER_API_KEY` and `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` environment variables. ## Cron Schedule Cron is set to `null` -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. ## Safety & Execution Mode **The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when `--live` is passed explicitly.** | Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |----------|------|----------------| | `python trader.py` | Dry run | None | | Cron / automaton | Dry run | None | | `python trader.py --live` | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC | The automaton cron is set to `null` -- it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. `autostart: false` means it won't start automatically on install. ## Required Credentials | Variable | Required | Notes | |----------|----------|-------| | `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. | | `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. | ## Tunables (Risk Parameters) | Variable | Default | Purpose | |----------|---------|---------| | `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_ENTRY_EDGE` | `0.10` | Min divergence to trigger trade | | [REDACTED_SECRET] | `0.45` | Sell position when price reaches this level | | [REDACTED_SECRET] | `5.00` | Max USDC per trade | | [REDACTED_SECRET] | `3` | Max trades per execution cycle | | `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_SLIPPAGE_MAX` | `0.15` | Max slippage before skipping | | `SIMMER_CRYPTO_MOM_MIN_LIQUIDITY` | `0` | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) | ## Dependency `simmer-sdk` is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets. - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ - GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk - Publisher: [REDACTED_SECRET] Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: clean | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal:  | SkillSpector: suspicious (HIGH)