Skill: tangweigang-jpg/lifelines-survival-analysis (version 0.3.3)

--- name: lifelines-survival-analysis description: |- 基于 lifelines 库提供生存分析与 Cox 比例风险建模能力，支持残差诊断、参数化回归模型自定义、时滞转化率分析及比例风险假设检验。 license: Proprietary. See LICENSE.txt in project root. compatibility: Designed for Doramagic-host ecosystem (Claude Code / openclaw / Cursor). Requires Python 3.12+ with uv package manager. metadata: version: "v6.1" blueprint_id: "finance-bp-126" compiled_at: "2026-04-22T13:01:02.914448+00:00" capability_markets: "global" capability_activities: "insurance-actuarial" sop_version: "crystal-compilation-v6.1" --- # 生存分析建模 (lifelines-survival-analysis) > 基于 lifelines 库提供生存分析与 Cox 比例风险建模能力，支持残差诊断、参数化回归模型自定义、时滞转化率分析及比例风险假设检验。 ## Pipeline `data_collection -> data_storage -> factor_computation -> target_selection -> trading_execution -> visualization` ## Top Use Cases (19 total) ### Cox Model Residual Analysis (`UC-101`) Diagnosing Cox proportional hazards model fit by computing and visualizing martingale, deviance, and delta_beta residuals to identify outliers and inf **Triggers**: cox residuals, martingale residual, deviance residual ### Time-Lagged Conversion Rate Analysis (`UC-103`) Modeling marketing conversion rates where there is a time lag between initial contact and conversion event, requiring specialized survival analysis te **Triggers**: conversion rate, time-lagged, marketing ### Piecewise Exponential Survival Models (`UC-104`) Fitting piecewise exponential survival models that allow different hazard rates in different time intervals, useful when hazard is non-constant over t **Triggers**: piecewise exponential, varying hazard, breakpoints For all **19** use cases, see [references/USE_CASES.md](references/USE_CASES.md). **Execute trigger**: `When user intent matches intent_router.uc_entries[].positive_terms AND user uses action verb (run/execute/跑/执行/backtest/fetch/collect)` ## What I'll Ask You - Target market: A-share (default), HK, or crypto? (US stocks in ZVT are half-baked — stockus_nasdaq_AAPL exists but coverage is thin) - Data source / provider: eastmoney (free, no account), joinquant (account+paid), baostock (free, good history), akshare, or qmt (broker)? - Strategy type: MACD golden-cross, MA crossover, volume breakout, fundamental screen, or custom factor? - Time range: start_timestamp and end_timestamp for backtest period - Target entity IDs: specific stocks (stock_sh_600000) or index components (SZ1000)? ## Semantic Locks (Fatal) | ID | Rule | On Violation | |---|---|---| | `SL-01` | Execute sell orders before buy orders in every trading cycle | halt | | `SL-02` | Trading signals MUST use next-bar execution (no look-ahead) | halt | | `SL-03` | Entity IDs MUST follow format entity_type_exchange_code | halt | | `SL-04` | DataFrame index MUST be MultiIndex (entity_id, timestamp) | halt | | `SL-05` | TradingSignal MUST have EXACTLY ONE of: position_pct, order_money, order_amount | halt | | `SL-06` | filter_result column semantics: True=BUY, False=SELL, None/NaN=NO ACTION | halt | | `SL-07` | Transformer MUST run BEFORE Accumulator in factor pipeline | halt | | `SL-08` | MACD parameters locked: fast=12, slow=26, signal=9 | halt | Full lock definitions: [references/LOCKS.md](references/LOCKS.md) ## Top Anti-Patterns (15 total) - **`AP-INSURANCE-001`**: Implicit numeric format assumptions without validation - **`AP-INSURANCE-002`**: Triangle axis construction with invalid temporal ordering - **`AP-INSURANCE-003`**: Cumulative/incremental triangle representation misuse All 15 anti-patterns: [references/ANTI_PATTERNS.md](references/ANTI_PATTERNS.md) ## Evidence Quality Notice > [QUALITY NOTICE] This crystal was compiled from blueprint finance-bp-126. Evidence verify ratio = 53.0% and audit fail total = 27. Generated results may have uncaptured requirement gaps. Verify critical decisions against source files (LATEST.yaml / LATEST.jsonl). ## Reference Files | File | Contents | When to Load | |---|---|---| | [references/seed.yaml](references/seed.yaml) | V6+ 全量权威 (source-of-truth) | 有行为/决策争议时必读 | | [references/ANTI_PATTERNS.md](references/ANTI_PATTERNS.md) | 15 条跨项目反模式 | 开始实现前 | | [references/WISDOM.md](references/WISDOM.md) | 跨项目精华借鉴 | 架构决策时 | | [references/CONSTRAINTS.md](references/CONSTRAINTS.md) | domain + fatal 约束 | 规则冲突时 | | [references/USE_CASES.md](references/USE_CASES.md) | 全量 KUC-* 业务场景 | 需要完整示例时 | | [references/LOCKS.md](references/LOCKS.md) | SL-* + preconditions + hints | 生成回测/交易代码前 | | [references/COMPONENTS.md](references/COMPONENTS.md) | AST 组件地图（按 module 拆分）| 查 API 时 | --- *Compiled by Doramagic crystal-compilation-v6.1 from `finance-bp-126` blueprint at 2026-04-22T13:01:02.914448+00:00.* *See [human_summary.md](human_summary.md) for non-technical overview.*


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: suspicious (CRITICAL)