Skill: ivangdavila/second-order-effects (version 1.0.0)

--- name: Second Order Effects slug: second-order-effects version: 1.0.0 homepage: https://clawic.com/skills/second-order-effects description: Analyze decisions by tracing consequences beyond immediate outcomes to second and third-order effects. metadata: {"clawdbot":{"emoji":"🔮","requires":{"bins":[]},"os":["linux","darwin","win32"]}} --- ## Setup If `~/second-order-effects/` doesn't exist, or user's memory file shows setup incomplete, read `setup.md` first. ## When to Use User faces a decision with non-obvious downstream effects. Agent traces consequences through multiple orders, identifies hidden risks and opportunities, and stress-tests assumptions. ## Architecture Memory lives in `~/second-order-effects/`. See `memory-template.md` for structure. ``` ~/second-order-effects/ ├── memory.md # Preferences + past analyses ├── decisions/ # Archived decision analyses │ └── YYYY-MM-DD_topic.md └── patterns.md # Learned consequence patterns ``` ## Quick Reference | Topic | File | |-------|------| | Setup process | `setup.md` | | Memory template | `memory-template.md` | | Analysis framework | `framework.md` | | Common patterns | `patterns.md` | ## Core Rules ### 1. Always Go Three Levels Deep First-order: What happens immediately? Second-order: What does that cause? Third-order: What does THAT cause? Most people stop at first-order. Competitive advantage lives in second and third. ### 2. Consider All Stakeholders Map who is affected at each order: - Direct participants - Indirect observers - Market/ecosystem - Future self Each stakeholder creates new consequence chains. ### 3. Invert the Question After mapping positive outcomes, ask: "What could go wrong at each level?" | Order | Optimistic | Pessimistic | |-------|------------|-------------| | 1st | Direct benefit | Obvious risk | | 2nd | Compounding gain | Hidden cost | | 3rd | Strategic advantage | Systemic risk | ### 4. Time-Weight Consequences Near-term consequences feel larger than they are. Apply discount: - 1st order (now): weight 0.5 - 2nd order (weeks/months): weight 1.0 - 3rd order (years): weight 1.5 Decisions that sacrifice 2nd/3rd order for 1st are usually wrong. ### 5. Document Predictions Every analysis should include falsifiable predictions with timestamps. Review quarterly. Update `patterns.md` when patterns emerge. ## Consequence Chain Format Use this structure for every analysis: ```markdown ## Decision: [One sentence] ### First Order (Immediate) - Effect 1 → leads to... - Effect 2 → leads to... ### Second Order (Weeks-Months) - [Effect 1] causes → ... - [Effect 2] causes → ... ### Third Order (Months-Years) - [Second-order effect] causes → ... ### Stakeholder Map | Who | 1st Order | 2nd Order | 3rd Order | |-----|-----------|-----------|-----------| ### Inversion (What Could Go Wrong) - Risk at 2nd order: ... - Risk at 3rd order: ... ### Decision: [Proceed/Pause/Reject] because [reason tied to 2nd/3rd order] ``` ## Common Traps - Stopping at first order → miss compounding effects - Ignoring negative second-order effects → blindsided by hidden costs - Over-weighting immediate pain → sacrifice long-term position - Analysis paralysis → set time limit (15-30 min), then decide - Confident predictions → use probability ranges, not certainties ## Scope This skill ONLY: - Analyzes decisions using consequence chains - Stores analyses in `~/second-order-effects/` - Learns patterns from past decisions This skill NEVER: - Makes decisions for the user - Accesses external data without request - Modifies its own SKILL.md ## Security & Privacy **Data that stays local:** - Decision analyses in ~/second-order-effects/ - Learned patterns and preferences **This skill does NOT:** - Send data externally - Access files outside its directory - Make network requests ## Related Skills Install with `clawhub install <slug>` if user confirms: - `first-principles-thinking` - break problems to fundamentals - `six-thinking-hats` - parallel thinking modes - `strategy` - strategic planning frameworks ## Feedback - If useful: `clawhub star second-order-effects` - Stay updated: `clawhub sync`

path: framework.md
content: # Framework - Second-Order Thinking

> **Reference patterns only.** This file provides analysis frameworks for the agent to apply.

## The Consequence Chain Method

### Step 1: State the Decision Clearly
One sentence. No ambiguity.
- Bad: "Should I change pricing?"
- Good: "Should I increase prices 20% for new customers starting March 1?"

### Step 2: Map First-Order Effects
Direct, immediate consequences. What happens the moment you act?

| Category | First-Order Effect |
|----------|-------------------|
| Revenue | +20% per new customer |
| Customers | Some price-sensitive prospects leave |
| Competitors | No immediate reaction |
| Team | Sales needs new pitch |

### Step 3: Trace to Second Order
For EACH first-order effect, ask: "And then what?"

```
First: Some prospects leave
  └→ Second: Sales team works harder for same revenue
      └→ Second: Remaining customers are higher quality (less churn)
      └→ Second: Word spreads that you're "expensive"
```

### Step 4: Trace to Third Order
For key second-order effects, go deeper:

```
Second: Word spreads that you're "expensive"
  └→ Third: Attracts customers who value quality over price
  └→ Third: Competitors position as "affordable alternative"
  └→ Third: Your brand becomes premium signal
```

### Step 5: Invert
Now run the pessimistic chain:

```
First: Revenue increases 20%
  └→ Second: Expectations for next quarter rise
      └→ Third: Pressure to maintain growth compounds
          └→ Risk: Forced into unsustainable pace
```

### Step 6: Stakeholder Reality Check
Who else is affected?

| Stakeholder | 1st Order | 2nd Order | 3rd Order |
|-------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
| New customers | Pay more | Expect more | Higher support load |
| Existing customers | No change | Feel "grandfathered" | Ask for features |
| Sales team | New objections | Filter better leads | Higher close rate |
| Competitors | Notice | Adjust positioning | Market shifts |

### Step 7: Time-Weight and Decide

| Order | Outcome | Time | Weight | Score |
|-------|---------|------|--------|-------|
| 1st | -10% conversion | Now | 0.5 | -5 |
| 2nd | +15% customer quality | 3mo | 1.0 | +15 |
| 3rd | Premium positioning | 1yr | 1.5 | +22.5 |
| **Total** | | | | **+32.5** |

Decision: Proceed - second and third order effects outweigh first-order pain.

## Quick Analysis (5 minutes)

When time is short:

1. **Decision**: [one sentence]
2. **First order**: [2-3 bullets]
3. **Second order**: [2-3 bullets, focus on non-obvious]
4. **Hidden risk**: [one sentence]
5. **Recommendation**: [proceed/pause/reject + why]

## Deep Analysis (30 minutes)

Full framework with:
- All 7 steps above
- Probability ranges for uncertain effects
- Scenario variants (optimistic/base/pessimistic)
- Explicit assumptions that could break the analysis
- Review date for prediction accuracy

## When NOT to Use

- Reversible decisions with low stakes (just decide)
- Urgent situations requiring immediate action (act, then analyze)
- Decisions already made (post-mortem instead)
- Analysis paralysis setting in (set timer, force decision)


path: memory-template.md
content: # Memory Template - Second-Order Thinking

Create `~/second-order-effects/memory.md` with this structure:

```markdown
# Second-Order Thinking Memory

## Status
setup: ongoing
version: 1.0.0
last_interaction: YYYY-MM-DD

## Preferences

### Domains
<!-- Which areas do they analyze most? -->
- primary: 
- secondary: 

### Analysis Style
<!-- How deep, how fast? -->
- depth: standard | deep | quick
- format: full_chain | summary_first | stakeholder_focus
- risk_lens: conservative | balanced | aggressive

### Time Horizons
<!-- What future matters to them? -->
- short: days-weeks
- medium: months
- long: years

## Patterns Learned

### Blind Spots
<!-- Recurring things they miss -->
- 

### Strengths
<!-- Where their intuition is already good -->
- 

## Decision Index

### Recent
| Date | Decision | Outcome | Pattern |
|------|----------|---------|---------|

### By Domain
- business: [links to decisions/]
- personal: 
- technical: 

---
*Updated: YYYY-MM-DD*
```

## Status Values

| Value | Meaning |
|-------|---------|
| `ongoing` | Still learning preferences, ask when relevant |
| `complete` | Fully configured, analyze directly |
| `paused` | User said "not now", resume later |
| `never_ask` | User prefers minimal setup questions |

## Directory Structure

```
~/second-order-effects/
├── memory.md           # This file
├── patterns.md         # Learned consequence patterns
└── decisions/          # Individual analyses
    ├── 2026-02-20_pricing-change.md
    └── 2026-02-18_hiring-decision.md
```

## Notes

- Save incrementally - don't wait for "complete"
- Decision files are append-only (never delete history)
- Update patterns.md when you notice recurring chains
- Use Decision Index to quickly find past analyses


path: patterns.md
content: # Patterns - Second-Order Thinking

> **Reference patterns only.** Common consequence chains to watch for.

## Universal Patterns

### The Cobra Effect
First: Incentive created to solve problem
Second: People optimize for incentive, not problem
Third: Problem worsens because incentive misaligned

*Example: Paying for dead cobras → people breed cobras*

Watch for: Any incentive-based solution.

### The Streisand Effect
First: Attempt to hide/suppress information
Second: Attention drawn to suppression attempt
Third: Information spreads far more than it would have

*Example: Demanding removal of content → content goes viral*

Watch for: Reputation management, content removal, secrecy.

### Goodhart's Law
First: Metric chosen as target
Second: People optimize metric at expense of underlying goal
Third: Metric improves while actual outcomes worsen

*Example: Lines of code as productivity metric → verbose code*

Watch for: Any KPI or OKR.

### The Lindy Effect
First: Something survives initial period
Second: Survival signals robustness
Third: Expected future lifespan increases

*Example: Book in print for 50 years → likely in print for 50 more*

Watch for: Technology choices, methodology adoption.

## Business Patterns

### Price Increase Chain
```
Price up →
  ├→ Short-term revenue up
  ├→ Price-sensitive customers leave
  ├→ Remaining customers expect more value
  └→ Brand perception shifts toward premium
      └→ Attracts premium-seeking customers
      └→ Competitors claim "affordable" positioning
```

### Hiring Chain
```
New hire →
  ├→ Capacity increases (1st order)
  ├→ Training load increases temporarily
  ├→ Team dynamics shift
  └→ Culture affected by new person's habits
      └→ If senior: others adopt their patterns
      └→ If junior: reveals mentorship capability
```

### Feature Addition Chain
```
New feature →
  ├→ Some users happy
  ├→ Complexity increases
  ├→ Support tickets for new feature
  └→ Maintenance burden forever
      └→ Future features slower
      └→ Technical debt compounds
```

### Layoff Chain
```
Layoffs →
  ├→ Costs reduced immediately
  ├→ Remaining team overworked
  ├→ Trust eroded ("am I next?")
  └→ Best performers update resumes
      └→ Talent drain
      └→ Institutional knowledge lost
```

## Personal Patterns

### Saying Yes Chain
```
Say yes to commitment →
  ├→ Immediate social approval
  ├→ Calendar fills
  ├→ Energy depletes
  └→ Quality of all commitments drops
      └→ Reputation for unreliability
      └→ Fewer meaningful opportunities
```

### Saying No Chain
```
Say no to request →
  ├→ Immediate disappointment from requester
  ├→ Time protected
  ├→ Precedent set for boundaries
  └→ Future requests filtered better
      └→ Respect for your time increases
      └→ Higher-quality opportunities arrive
```

### Shortcut Chain
```
Take shortcut →
  ├→ Immediate time saved
  ├→ Skill not developed
  ├→ Dependency on shortcut
  └→ When shortcut unavailable, stuck
      └→ Others who didn't shortcut surpass you
```

## Technical Patterns

### Dependency Addition Chain
```
Add dependency →
  ├→ Immediate functionality gained
  ├→ Attack surface increased
  ├→ Update burden added
  └→ Dependency's roadmap affects you
      └→ Breaking changes force rewrites
      └→ Security vuln in dep = vuln in you
```

### Quick Fix Chain
```
Quick fix deployed →
  ├→ Immediate problem solved
  ├→ Root cause unaddressed
  ├→ Fix becomes load-bearing
  └→ Future changes must work around fix
      └→ Complexity compounds
      └→ Eventually: "we need a rewrite"
```

## How to Use This File

1. When analyzing a decision, scan for matching patterns
2. If pattern matches, trace the known chain
3. Adjust for context (patterns are templates, not predictions)
4. Add new patterns when you observe them

## Adding New Patterns

```markdown
### [Pattern Name]
```
Trigger →
  ├→ First-order effect
  ├→ Another first-order effect
  └→ Second-order effect
      └→ Third-order effect
```

*Example: [real example]*

Watch for: [triggers that indicate this pattern].
```


path: setup.md
content: # Setup - Second-Order Thinking

## Your Mission

Make this skill **maximally useful** for THIS user's decision-making style.

## When to Read This

- `~/second-order-effects/` doesn't exist (first time)
- `memory.md` has `setup: ongoing` or `setup: paused`
- `memory.md` version < current skill version
- User asks about decisions but you lack context

## Before Anything

1. **Understand this skill completely** - read framework.md and patterns.md
2. **Analyze this user** - how do they make decisions now?
3. **Anticipate their decisions** - what domains? business, personal, technical?
4. **Detect blind spots** - do they tend to over-optimize short-term?

## Engage Thoughtfully

**Not blocking.** If user asks for analysis, deliver it first. Setup happens naturally.

**Adapt to user type:**
- Analytical: deep frameworks, probability ranges, stakeholder maps
- Intuitive: quick chains, highlight the non-obvious insight
- Time-pressed: 3-bullet summary, full analysis in file

**Save incrementally.** Every preference learned → save to memory.md immediately.

**Respect boundaries:**
- If user says "that's enough analysis" → set `setup: paused`
- If user says "just decide" → note preference for action over analysis
- Never push analysis when user wants quick answers

### Key Questions

Gather naturally during conversations:

1. **What domains?** Business strategy, personal life, technical architecture, investments?
2. **What time horizons matter?** Days, months, years?
3. **Risk tolerance?** Conservative (avoid 3rd-order risks) or aggressive (accept for upside)?
4. **Stakeholders?** Solo decisions or considering team/family/investors?
5. **Past regrets?** Decisions they wish they'd thought through more?

### Show Value Immediately

As user shares a decision problem:
1. Immediately show one non-obvious second-order effect
2. Confirm: "Should I map the full consequence chain?"
3. Deliver analysis in preferred format

Make them feel the skill catches what they'd miss.

## On Version Updates

If skill version > memory.md version:
1. Check changelog for new capabilities
2. Propose: "Second-Order Thinking updated. Want me to re-analyze any past decisions with new framework?"
3. Update version in memory.md after acknowledged

## Remember

Most people make decisions at first-order only. Your job: show them what happens next, and what happens after that. The insight is always in the second and third order.


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: clean | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: clean (LOW)