Skill: leooooooow/customer-ltv (version 1.1.0)

--- name: Customer LTV description: Segment customers by lifetime value and design tailored retention, upsell, and reactivation strategies for each cohort to maximize long-term revenue. version: 1.1.0 --- # Customer LTV Segmentation & Strategy Design Customer lifetime value is the single most important metric for directing marketing investment. By segmenting your customer base into LTV cohorts, you unlock the ability to allocate different retention budgets, offer depths, communication cadences, and reactivation tactics to each group—ultimately shifting your unit economics toward profitability. This skill guides you through calculating LTV, defining segments, building segment-specific playbooks, and implementing them across your marketing platform with precision. ## Solves **Undifferentiated marketing budgets — Treating all customers equally means you're overspending on low-value retention and underspending on champion protection and VIP acceleration.** Without segmentation, you burn marketing dollars on customers unlikely to repay the acquisition cost, while neglecting your highest-value cohorts with exclusive experiences that drive disproportionate lifetime value. **Churn in high-value segments going undetected — Most brands only notice churn when they're analyzing quarterly metrics.** By segmenting on LTV and layering in recency data, you identify at-risk champions and VIP customers within days of behavior change, enabling aggressive win-back campaigns with premium incentives before they're truly lost. **Reactivation campaigns that destroy margin — Offering $100 discounts to lapsed low-value customers is a value-destruction exercise.** Segment-specific reactivation means high-value lapses get white-glove win-back sequences and concierge outreach, while low-value dormant accounts get minimal intervention—or none—unless they show strong intent signals. **Offer strategies misaligned with customer economics — A 20% off offer makes sense for a $2,000 LTV customer but devastates margins for a $500 customer.** Without LTV guardrails, your copywriters and merchandisers are creating one-size-fits-all promotions that systematically under-monetize high-value cohorts and overspend on unprofitable segments. **Upsell and cross-sell hitting saturation without sequence logic — Most teams send similar product recommendations to all customers, ignoring cohort economics and purchase history.** LTV-based segmentation enables you to build predictable upsell funnels: frequency acceleration for mid-tier, category expansion for high-value, and bundle bundling for champions seeking convenience. **Compliance and suppression gaps with inactive customers — Inactive low-value customers accumulate in your mailing lists, inflating bounce rates and damaging sender reputation.** Segment-specific suppression rules—combined with recency overlays—ensure you're only contacting customers with demonstrable engagement appetite, reducing complaints and list decay while freeing budget for higher-intent cohorts. ## Quick Reference | Decision | Strong | Acceptable | Weak | |---|---|---|---| | **LTV Calculation Method** | Cohort-based RFM with 365-day lookback and predictive decay modeling | Historical AOV × frequency × lifespan with 90–180 day lookback | Point-in-time snapshot without cohort controls or seasonal normalization | | **Cohort Definition** | First-purchase month cohorts with 12+ months of post-purchase history | Rolling 90-day acquisition cohorts with trailing performance data | Random customer grouping; mixing new and mature customers | | **Segment Count** | 5–6 tiers (Champions, VIP, High-Value, Mid-Tier, Low-Value, +/- Lapsed overlay) | 3–4 tiers with clear monotonic LTV thresholds | 8+ tiers; granularity creates operational complexity without insight gain | | **Reactivation Threshold** | LTV-specific: $1,000+ gets 60-day lapse trigger; $100–500 gets 120-day; <$100 suppressed at 180-day | Uniform 90-day lapse rule across all segments | No formal reactivation rules; ad-hoc campaigns | | **Upsell Timing** | Trigger-based on product affinity + LTV tier + RFM score; escalate frequency for high-value | Calendar-based sequence (monthly offer email) with segment-aware offer depth | Random upsell send; no sequencing or segment logic | | **VIP Definition** | Top 10% by LTV + AOV >2x category median + 3+ purchases in 12 months | Top 15% LTV OR AOV >category 75th percentile | Arbitrary selection; no clear threshold | | **Churn Prediction** | Cohort-based RFM scoring with 30-day behavioral decay; flag at 70+ risk score | Basic frequency drop (0 purchases in 60 days) | Manual review or no formal churn monitoring | ## Workflow ### 1. Audit Historical Data & Define LTV Lookback Period Gather 18–24 months of transaction data from your payment processor and ecommerce platform. Identify your cohort construction method (first-purchase month is standard) and confirm you have customer-level data with: order date, order value, product SKUs, customer identifiers, and email. Define your LTV lookback window—most ecommerce brands use 365 days post-first-purchase for mature segments, but SaaS and subscription models should use 90–180 days. Document any seasonal normalization needed (holiday spikes, back-to-school, etc.) and whether you'll exclude promotional or high-discount orders from your LTV base. Export a clean dataset with one row per customer and columns for: customer ID, acquisition date, total orders, total revenue, most recent order, days since acquisition, and product category affinity. ### 2. Calculate LTV & Define Percentile Thresholds Use the historical LTV formula: AOV × purchase frequency × customer lifespan. For a more sophisticated approach, layer in predictive LTV using cohort analysis—group customers by acquisition month, calculate 90-day, 180-day, and 365-day revenue per cohort, and extrapolate expected lifetime value. Document your category-specific benchmarks (fashion has lower LTV than luxury beauty). Once you have LTV calculated for all customers, sort them and identify percentile breakpoints: top 1% (Champions), top 10% (VIP), top 20% (High-Value), mid 60% (Mid-Tier), bottom 20% (Low-Value). Validate these breakpoints against your business model: does top 20% LTV account for 60–80% of revenue? Does bottom 20% LTV generate enough margin to support acquisition spend? Adjust percentiles if needed to ensure each segment has strategic significance. ### 3. Layer Recency & Churn Signals; Create RFM Overlay Segment alone is insufficient—a $5,000 LTV customer who hasn't purchased in 8 months is at high risk. Create an RFM (Recency, Frequency, Monetary) overlay: flag customers by days since last purchase (active: 0–30, warm: 31–90, cool: 91–180, cold: 180+) and frequency trends (increasing, stable, declining). For each customer, calculate a composite churn risk score: 100 - (1 - days_since_purchase / 365) × 50 - (frequency_trend / 5) × 30 - (repeat_rate_improvement / 10) × 20. Flag any customer in Champions or VIP with a churn score >70, or any active high-value customer with declining frequency. Document lapsed cohorts separately: "Lapsed High-Value" (was top 20%, now 180+ days inactive) and "Lapsed Low-Value" (was bottom 20%, now 180+ days inactive). These cohorts require distinct reactivation playbooks. ### 4. Build Segment-Specific Strategy Playbooks For each segment, design a tailored playbook that specifies: email cadence (Champions: 1–2x/week with exclusive content; VIP: 2–3x/week; High-Value: 2–3x/week; Mid-Tier: 1–2x/week; Low-Value: 1x/week or suppressed), offer strategy (Champions: high-value upsell offers 30–40% off; VIP: tiered exclusive access + subscription conversion; High-Value: frequency acceleration + bundle bundling; Mid-Tier: second-purchase incentives + cross-sell; Low-Value: minimal incentive or suppression), communication tone (Champions: concierge + personalization; VIP: exclusive + escalation; others: standard commercial), and reactivation triggers and rules. Document which product categories, price points, and offer types convert best for each segment based on historical performance. Define upsell sequences: what does a champion who just bought product X purchase next? What's the natural path from category A to category B for your mid-tier customers? Build email templates with segment-aware copy: champions see "reserved for our top customers" messaging while mid-tier sees "join 1,000+ satisfied customers." ### 5. Build Campaign Output & Platform Mapping Create a master output document that lists, for each segment: target audience size, average LTV, email send frequency, upsell offer sequence, reactivation rules, suppression rules, and required platform setup (segments in Klaviyo, audiences in ad platforms, flows in your email ESP). Map each segment to specific automation flows in your marketing platform. Example: "Champions – Reactivation Flow: If no purchase in 60 days, send Day 1 concierge offer email, Day 5 win-back SMS with high incentive, Day 10 phone call (if AOV >$5K)." Specify which segments to exclude from broadcast campaigns, discount-driven promotions, and generic content. Document data refresh cadence: LTV segments should be recalculated monthly, RFM scores weekly or daily depending on your transaction volume. Create a master suppression list: customers inactive 180+ days AND below top 20% LTV should be suppressed from most campaigns. Specify any platform-specific limitations (Shopify segments vs. Klaviyo lists vs. Facebook audiences) and manual reconciliation needed. ### 6. Implement & Test with Pilot Cohorts Launch segment definitions in your marketing platform (e.g., Klaviyo segments, Shopify customer tags, ad platform audiences). Validate segment size, average LTV, and other metadata against your calculation file. Pilot your highest-impact playbook first: usually "Lapsed High-Value" reactivation or "Champions" VIP program. Test different email cadences, offer depths, and message tones for one segment in isolation, holding a control group constant. Measure: revenue per email (RPE), conversion rate, unsubscribe rate, and revenue attribution. After 2–4 weeks, if results beat your control by >20%, roll out to the next segment. Document any data quality issues (missing email addresses, bot accounts, test orders) and whether your LTV calculation needs adjustment. If segments are too small (<100 customers) or too large (>60% of database), recalibrate percentile thresholds. ### 7. Monitor Segment Migration & Refresh Cadence Monitor how customers move between segments month-to-month. Healthy businesses see: 5–10% of mid-tier moving up to high-value (frequency acceleration working), 2–5% of low-value moving up (conversion sequences working), and <3% of high-value moving down (churn acceptable). Set calendar reminders to recalculate LTV and segment assignments monthly. Track "segment stickiness": what % of champions remain in the top 1% after 90 days? >80% is healthy; <60% suggests cohort definitions need tightening. Monitor your reactivation playbook effectiveness: what % of lapsed high-value do you reactivate per campaign? Industry benchmark is 15–30%, depending on lapse length and offer strength. Update your segment definitions annually or after major business changes (new product line, pricing shift, acquisition). Document all changes to your LTV calculation methodology in a version log. ## Examples ### Example 1: Luxury Fashion E-Commerce (3-Tier Segmentation) **Input Data:** - Annual revenue: $8M - Customer base: 45,000 active customers - Average AOV: $185 - Repeat purchase rate: 32% - Average customer lifespan: 24 months - Category benchmarks: Luxury fashion LTV typically 365-day = AOV × repeat frequency × 1.8x adjustment **LTV Calculation:** - Average LTV = $185 × 0.32 (repeat rate) × 24 (months in lifespan) = $1,421 - Cohort deep-dive: Q4 2024 cohort (holiday shoppers) has AOV $220, repeat rate 38%, resulting in LTV = $1,996 - Percentile mapping: Top 1% (Champions): LTV >$3,500 | Top 10% (VIP): LTV $2,000–$3,500 | Top 20% (High-Value): LTV $1,200–$2,000 **Strategy Overview:** | Segment | Size | Avg LTV | Email Cadence | Offer Strategy | Reactivation Trigger | Key Tactic | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Champions (n=450) | 1% | $5,200 | 2x/week + SMS | Exclusive early access to collections, 30–35% loyalty discount, VIP styling sessions | 45 days inactive | Concierge outreach + dedicated account manager | | VIP (n=4,050) | 10% | $2,650 | 2x/week | Exclusive collections, 25–30% off select categories, subscription conversion | 60 days inactive | Email + SMS sequence with exclusive incentive | | High-Value (n=8,100) | 20% | $1,550 | 2x/week | Frequency acceleration (next purchase 15% off), bundle offers, loyalty tier enrollment | 90 days inactive | Standard email sequence, 20% incentive | **Email Sequence Example—Champions Win-Back:** Day 1 (Email): Subject: "We miss you—exclusive access inside" - Personalized greeting referencing last purchased collection - Offer: First item from new collection at 30% off - CTA: "Claim your exclusive preview" - Tone: Concierge, VIP, exclusive Day 5 (SMS): "Hi [NAME]—your styling session is reserved. Respond to confirm: [LINK]" - High-touch, time-sensitive - Offer: Personal styling call with expert + $150 credit Day 15 (Email): Subject: "The collection you'd love is back in stock" - Product recommendation based on past purchases - Offer: 25% off + free priority shipping - Tone: Caring, informative, not salesy **Email Sequence Example—VIP Upsell:** Day 1 (Email): Subject: "[NAME], your next-level collection is here" - New collection launch, positioned as VIP-exclusive - Offer: 25% off + entry into VIP gift drawing - CTA: "Shop VIP collection" Day 7 (Email): Subject: "Subscription members get 40% off beauty add-ons" - Cross-category upsell (beauty accessories) - Offer: Join subscription, get 40% off this month - CTA: "Start subscription" --- ### Example 2: Vitamin & Supplement Subscription (5-Tier Segmentation) **Input Data:** - Annual revenue: $12M - Customer base: 120,000 active + 40,000 lapsed - Subscription revenue: 45% of total - Average monthly subscription value: $35 - Cohort age: 50% acquired >18 months ago (mature cohort) - Churn rate: 8% monthly (subscription typical) - Repeat customer LTV baseline: $420 (12 months × $35) **LTV Calculation:** - Subscription LTV = $35 × 12 + one-time purchases ($85 avg) = $505 base - One-time purchase customers LTV = $95 × 1.5 repeat rate = $142.50 - Cohort variance: Q1 2024 cohort has 45% retention after 12 months (LTV = $189); Q2 2025 cohort has 62% retention after 8 months (projected LTV = $475 by month 12) - Percentile mapping: Top 1% (Champions): LTV >$1,200 (12+ month subscribers + repeat add-ons) | Top 10% (VIP): LTV $700–$1,200 | Top 20% (High-Value): LTV $450–$700 | Mid 60% (Mid-Tier): LTV $100–$450 | Bottom 20% (Low-Value): LTV <$100 **Strategy Overview:** | Segment | Size | Avg LTV | Email Cadence | Subscription Strategy | Product Recommendation | Suppression Rules | |---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | Champions (n=1,200) | 1% | $1,350 | 3x/week + weekly SMS | Exclusive annual plan (15% discount), co-create custom blends, VIP customer council | Curated new products 2x/month | Never suppress; escalate at 60-day no purchase | | VIP (n=12,000) | 10% | $825 | 2x/week + bi-weekly SMS | Annual plan conversion (10% discount), exclusive flavors, loyalty tier | Trending products monthly | Suppress only if 180+ days inactive | | High-Value (n=24,000) | 20% | $560 | 2x/week | Frequency acceleration (skip month incentive: "upgrade to monthly"), bundle cross-sells | Related categories monthly | Suppress if 150+ days inactive | | Mid-Tier (n=72,000) | 60% | $250 | 1x/week | Second-purchase nudge, starter bundle discounts | Best sellers, category intro emails | Suppress if 120+ days inactive | | Low-Value (n=12,000) | 20% | $65 | 1x/month or suppressed | Minimal incentive; focus on win-back if churned; otherwise suppress | None or minimal | Suppress if 90+ days inactive | **Email Sequence Example—Champions Exclusive Product Launch:** Day 1 (Email + SMS): Subject: "You're first to know—[PRODUCT] drops tomorrow" - Exclusive pre-launch access (24 hours early) - Offer: First 100 buyers get 25% off + free add-on - CTA: "Reserve yours now" - SMS mirror: Short version, time urgency Day 2 (Email): Subject: "[NAME], your order is reserved—last 6 hours" - Reminder, high scarcity - Tone: VIP, insider, exclusive Day 5 (Email): Subject: "Co-create your next custom blend?" - Invitation to join quarterly customer council call - Offer: Free custom blend sample pack for participation - CTA: "Join our customer council" **Email Sequence Example—Mid-Tier Reactivation (45+ days no purchase):** Day 1 (Email): Subject: "We miss you—15% off your favorite category" - Segment-specific offer based on past purchases - Offer: 15% off one category purchase - CTA: "Shop now" Day 8 (Email): Subject: "Starter bundle is back—$29.99 (was $39)" - Bundle discount, lowered price point to reduce friction - Tone: Helpful, not pushy Day 15 (Email): Subject: "[PRODUCT] is trending—customers like you love it" - Social proof + product recommendation - Offer: No additional discount (testing if content alone converts) --- ## Common Mistakes 1. **Using point-in-time LTV without cohort normalization.** Calculating LTV as "total customer revenue ÷ total customers" ignores acquisition seasonality and mix effects. A holiday-acquired cohort will appear to have 3x the LTV of a January cohort simply due to age. Always normalize LTV by cohort (first-purchase month) and only compare cohorts with at least 12 months of post-purchase history. 2. **Mixing new and mature customers in segmentation.** A customer acquired 2 weeks ago and one acquired 18 months ago should never be in the same LTV tier. Segment exclusively on cohort age—evaluate new customers (0–3 months) separately, benchmark them against their cohort peers, and only merge them into long-term segments after 6+ months of data. Otherwise, your segment definitions shift monthly and your playbooks become ineffective. 3. **Setting segment thresholds arbitrarily instead of percentile-based.** Saying "LTV >$1,000 is VIP" sounds precise but breaks when your business grows or contracts. Use percentiles instead: "Top 10% by LTV = VIP." This ensures your segments remain proportionally stable, your marketing resources don't get stretched thin, and you can scale playbooks consistently. 4. **Ignoring recency in retention strategy.** LTV is a snapshot; recency is a leading indicator of churn. A $5,000 LTV customer inactive for 180 days is at higher churn risk than a $3,000 customer active this week. Always overlay RFM scoring on top of LTV segmentation. Flag any high-value or champion customer with a churn score >70 for immediate intervention, regardless of historical LTV. 5. **Over-discounting high-value segments.** Because champions have higher LTV, teams often offer them the deepest discounts, which erodes margins on your most profitable customers. Instead, reserve deep discounts for mid-tier and low-value segments (to drive frequency) and offer champions high-value benefits that don't require margin sacrifice: exclusive access, early product launches, personalization, concierge service, loyalty tier acceleration. 6. **Applying identical offer depths across segments.** Sending a "20% off everything" broadcast to all customers means you're significantly under-monetizing high-value and champion cohorts, while potentially training low-value customers to wait for promotions. Design offers strategically: Champions get exclusive, non-discounted offers; VIP gets 15–20% incentives on premium products; High-Value gets 20–30% on broad selection; Mid-Tier gets 25–35% to drive frequency; Low-Value gets minimal or suppressed. 7. **Setting reactivation thresholds identically for all segments.** Activating a lapsed champion at 60 days of inactivity with a premium offer makes sense. Activating a lapsed low-value customer at 90 days with the same offer destroys margin. Define segment-specific lapse triggers: Champions 45–60 days, VIP 60–75 days, High-Value 90 days, Mid-Tier 120 days, Low-Value 180 days or suppressed entirely. Pair each with segment-appropriate offer depths and channels (concierge calls for champions, email for others). 8. **Forgetting to suppress low-value customers from costly channels.** Email has a cost per thousand (CPM) of roughly $5–8, but SMS costs $0.015–0.03 per message, and push notifications cost $0.50–5 per 1,000. Sending weekly broadcasts to 60,000 low-value customers across email, SMS, and push will exhaust your margins. Define clear suppression rules: Low-Value suppressed from SMS and push unless they demonstrate engagement signals; suppress from broadcast promotions after 90+ day inactivity; suppress from paid social retargeting if they haven't purchased in 180+ days. 9. **Implementing segments without control groups or measurement baseline.** You segment beautifully, launch playbooks, and then have no idea if they actually work because you didn't benchmark starting performance. Before rolling out new segment strategies, measure current state: what's your current email open rate, click rate, revenue per email? After 4 weeks of segmented campaigns, measure again and calculate delta. Expect 15–30% lift in RPE (revenue per email) from effective segmentation; if you're seeing <10%, your playbooks may not be differentiated enough. 10. **Recalculating LTV once per year.** LTV calculation should be a monthly operational habit, not an annual event. Refresh LTV calculations monthly, monitor segment migration (how many customers moved from High-Value to VIP?), and update your playbooks quarterly as you learn what works. If you find that your top 1% is churning at 15% per quarter while your top 10% churns at 5%, your champion definition is probably too aggressive and you should shift to top 2% instead. ## Resources - **references/output-template.md** — Master output template for campaign planning, segment definitions, strategy blocks, email sequences, suppression rules, and platform-specific setup instructions. - **references/ltv-calculation-guide.md** — Comprehensive guide to LTV methodologies, formulas, benchmarks by ecommerce category, cohort construction, percentile thresholds, data requirements, and tool recommendations. - **references/segmentation-playbook-guide.md** — Detailed playbook for each segment (Champions, VIP, High-Value, Mid-Tier, Low-Value, Lapsed), including email cadence, offer strategy, tone, upsell logic, and RFM overlay methodology. - **assets/ltv-quality-checklist.md** — 40+ item quality checklist covering LTV calculation accuracy, segment definitions, strategy differentiation, email copy, offer calibration, platform setup, suppression logic, data flags, compliance, and delivery standards.


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