Skill: diagnostikon/kalshi-f1-constructor-trader (version 1.0.0)

--- name: kalshi-f1-constructor-trader description: Trades F1 Drivers Championship markets on Kalshi using constructor (team) car performance ratings. Drivers in faster cars have structurally higher championship probabilities. Requires SIMMER_API_KEY and simmer-sdk. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: Kalshi F1 Constructor Trader difficulty: advanced homepage: "https://simmer.markets/skills" repository: "https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk" requires_env: "SIMMER_API_KEY" requires_pip: "simmer-sdk" default_mode: "paper" live_flag: "--live" --- # Kalshi F1 Constructor Trader > **This is a template.** > The default signal uses static constructor ratings and driver skill modifiers -- remix it with live qualifying data, FP session lap times, or car development trajectory analysis. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha. ## Strategy Overview Constructor (team) car speed is the single strongest predictor of F1 championship outcomes. A driver in the fastest car wins the championship ~70% of the time historically. This skill rates each constructor's car performance, applies individual driver skill modifiers, and computes fair championship probabilities using a power-law model. Key advantages: - **Car > driver** -- constructor advantage explains most championship variance - **Stable signal** -- car performance changes slowly (major upgrades every 3-5 races) - **Markets overweight narratives** -- retail traders overreact to single race results while ignoring underlying car pace - **Power-law compounding** -- small car advantages compound over a 24-race season ## Signal Logic ### Constructor Model 1. Rate each constructor's car performance (0-100 scale) 2. Apply individual driver skill modifiers (teammate comparison) 3. Compute effective driver rating = constructor_base + skill_modifier 4. Convert to probabilities: P(win) proportional to rating^3 (power law) 5. Compare model probability to Kalshi market price 6. Trade when |model - market| >= entry_edge ### Constructor Ratings (2025) | Constructor | Rating | Notes | |-------------|--------|-------| | Red Bull | 95 | Top pace, dominant qualifying | | McLaren | 92 | Strong race pace, consistent | | Ferrari | 90 | Great qualifier, variable race pace | | Mercedes | 88 | Improving development trajectory | | Aston Martin | 82 | Best of the rest | ### Conviction-Based Sizing - `conviction = min(|edge| / entry_edge, 2.0) / 2.0` - `size = max($1.00, conviction * MAX_POSITION_USD)` - Larger edge = larger position, capped at MAX_POSITION_USD ## Risk Parameters | Parameter | Default | Notes | |-----------|---------|-------| | Entry edge | 10% | Min model-vs-market divergence to trade | | Exit threshold | 45% | Sell when position price reaches this | | Max position size | $5.00 USDC | Per market | | Max trades per run | 4 | Rate limiting | | Max slippage | 15% | Skip if slippage exceeds | | Min liquidity | $0 | Disabled by default | ## Installation & Setup ```bash clawhub install kalshi-f1-constructor-trader ``` Requires: `SIMMER_API_KEY` and `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` environment variables. ## Cron Schedule Cron is set to `null` -- the skill does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. ## Safety & Execution Mode **The skill defaults to dry-run mode. Real trades only execute when `--live` is passed explicitly.** | Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |----------|------|----------------| | `python trader.py` | Dry run | None | | Cron / automaton | Dry run | None | | `python trader.py --live` | Live (Kalshi via DFlow) | Real USDC | ## Required Credentials | Variable | Required | Notes | |----------|----------|-------| | `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. | | `SOLANA_PRIVATE_KEY` | Yes | Base58-encoded Solana private key for live trading. | ## Tunables (Risk Parameters) | Variable | Default | Purpose | |----------|---------|---------| | `SIMMER_F1_CONSTR_ENTRY_EDGE` | `0.10` | Min divergence to trigger trade | | `SIMMER_F1_CONSTR_EXIT_THRESHOLD` | `0.45` | Sell position when price reaches this level | | [REDACTED_SECRET] | `5.00` | Max USDC per trade | | [REDACTED_SECRET] | `4` | Max trades per execution cycle | | `SIMMER_F1_CONSTR_SLIPPAGE_MAX` | `0.15` | Max slippage before skipping trade | | `SIMMER_F1_CONSTR_MIN_LIQUIDITY` | `0` | Min market liquidity USD (0 = disabled) | ## Dependency `simmer-sdk` is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets. - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ - GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk - Publisher: [REDACTED_SECRET]


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: suspicious (CRITICAL)