Skill: simmer/polymarket-mert-sniper (version 1.3.2)

--- name: polymarket-mert-sniper description: Near-expiry conviction trading on Polymarket. The skill scans markets in their final minutes, filters for strongly-skewed splits (60/40+), and places bounded trades against the under-priced side. Defaults — $10 max per trade, 5 trades/run, dry-run unless `--live`. metadata: author: Simmer (@simmer_markets) version: "1.3.2" displayName: Mert Sniper difficulty: advanced attribution: Strategy inspired by @mert — https://x.com/mert/status/2020216613279060433 --- # Mert Sniper Near-expiry conviction trading on Polymarket. The skill scans markets in their final minutes of pricing, filters for strongly-skewed splits, and places bounded trades against the under-priced side. > 🚨 **Framework, not a production trading system.** Read [DISCLAIMER.md](./DISCLAIMER.md) before connecting to a wallet with real funds. Dry-run is the default; `--live` is required for any real-USDC trade. Defaults: $10 max per trade, 60/40 split minimum, 2-minute expiry window, 5 trades per scan cycle — adjust deliberately before scaling. > **This is a template.** The default logic (expiry + split filter) is a starting point — remix it with your own filters, timing rules, or market selection criteria. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha. > Strategy attribution: [@mert](https://x.com/mert/status/2020216613279060433) — see source thread for the original methodology (topic filter, near-expiry timing, strong-split entry). ## When to Use This Skill Use this skill when the user wants to: - Trade markets that are about to resolve (last-minute conviction bets) - Filter by topic (e.g. only SOL/crypto markets) - Cap bet size (e.g. never more than $10) - Only trade when odds are strongly skewed (e.g. 60/40 or better) - Run an automated expiry-sniping strategy ## Setup Flow 1. **Install the Simmer SDK** ```bash pip install simmer-sdk ``` 2. **Ask for Simmer API key** - Get it from simmer.markets/dashboard -> SDK tab - Store in environment as `SIMMER_API_KEY` 3. **Ask for wallet private key** (required for live trading) - This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC) - Store in environment as `WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY` - The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed 4. **Ask about settings** (or confirm defaults) - Market filter: Which markets to scan (default: all) - Max bet: Maximum per trade (default $10) - Expiry window: How close to resolution (default 2 minutes) - Min split: Minimum odds skew (default 60/40) 5. **Save settings to config.json or environment variables** ## Configuration | Setting | Environment Variable | Default | Description | |---------|---------------------|---------|-------------| | Market filter | `SIMMER_MERT_FILTER` | (all) | Tag or keyword filter (e.g. `solana`, `crypto`) | | Max bet | `SIMMER_MERT_MAX_BET_USD` | 10.00 | Maximum USD per trade | | Expiry window | `SIMMER_MERT_EXPIRY_MINUTES` | 2 | Only trade markets resolving within N minutes | | Min split | `SIMMER_MERT_MIN_SPLIT` | 0.60 | Only trade when YES or NO >= this (e.g. 0.60 = 60/40) | | Max trades/run | `SIMMER_MERT_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN` | 5 | Maximum trades per scan cycle | | Smart sizing % | `SIMMER_MERT_SIZING_PCT` | 0.05 | % of balance per trade | | Fee buffer | `SIMMER_MERT_FEE_BUFFER` | 0.02 | Extra alpha required above entry fee; only applies when `SIMMER_MERT_MIN_EDGE` is set | | Declared edge | `SIMMER_MERT_MIN_EDGE` | 0.00 | Your signal's claimed edge above market price (probability units). At 0 (default): fee is logged but gate is advisory only. Set to X to block trades where entry fee > X — e.g. `0.05` requires your signal to clear at least 5¢ above market after fees | ## Quick Commands ```bash # Check account balance and positions python scripts/status.py # Detailed position list python scripts/status.py --positions ``` **API Reference:** - Base URL: `https://api.simmer.markets` - Auth: `Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY` - Portfolio: `GET /api/sdk/portfolio` - Positions: `GET /api/sdk/positions` ## Running the Skill ```bash # Dry run (default -- shows opportunities, no trades) python mert_sniper.py # Execute real trades python mert_sniper.py --live # Filter to specific markets python mert_sniper.py --filter solana # Custom expiry window (5 minutes) python mert_sniper.py --expiry 5 # With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance) python mert_sniper.py --live --smart-sizing # Check positions only python mert_sniper.py --positions # View config python mert_sniper.py --config # Disable safeguards (not recommended) python mert_sniper.py --no-safeguards ``` ## How It Works Each cycle the script: 1. Fetches active markets from Simmer API (optionally filtered by tag/keyword) 2. Filters to markets resolving within the expiry window (default 2 minutes) 3. Checks the price split -- only trades when one side >= min_split (default 60%) 4. Determines direction: backs the favored side (higher probability) 5. **Fee logging**: prints entry-fee cost per market (`POLY_FEE_RATE_CRYPTO × p × (1-p)`, entry only — redemption is free). If `SIMMER_MERT_MIN_EDGE > 0`, gates out markets where declared edge < entry fee + buffer 6. **Safeguards**: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage, market status 7. **Execution**: Places trade on the favored side, capped at max bet 8. Reports summary of scanned, filtered, and traded markets ## Example Output ``` 🎯 Mert Sniper - Near-Expiry Conviction Trading ================================================== [DRY RUN] No trades will be executed. Use --live to enable trading. Configuration: Filter: solana Max bet: $10.00 Expiry window: 2 minutes Min split: 60/40 Max trades: 5 Smart sizing: Disabled Safeguards: Enabled Fetching markets (filter: solana)... Found 12 active markets Markets expiring within 2 minutes: 2 SOL highest price on Feb 10? Resolves in: 1m 34s Split: YES 72% / NO 28% Side: YES (72% >= 60%) [DRY RUN] Would buy $10.00 on YES Summary: Markets scanned: 12 Near expiry: 2 Strong split: 1 Trades executed: 0 [DRY RUN MODE - no real trades executed] ``` ## Troubleshooting **"No markets found"** - Check your filter -- try without a filter first - Markets may not be available (check simmer.markets) **"No markets expiring within window"** - Increase expiry window: `--expiry 10` (10 minutes) - Or run more frequently (cron every minute) **"Split too narrow"** - Lower the min split: `--set min_split=0.55` - This trades more often but with less conviction **"Resolves in: 17h" on 15-min markets** - Polymarket's `endDate` is the event-level end-of-day, not the individual market close time - For 15-min crypto markets (e.g. "BTC Up or Down - Feb 8, 11PM ET"), the actual close time is in the question text but not in the API - This is a Polymarket data limitation — widen the expiry window (`--expiry 1080`) as a workaround, or use the split filter to find conviction opportunities regardless of timing **"External wallet requires a pre-signed order"** - `WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY` is not set in the environment - The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed - Fix: `export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<your-polymarket-wallet-private-key>` - Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it **"Balance shows $0 but I have funds on Polygon"** - Polymarket V2 (live 2026-04-28) uses **pUSD** (PolyUSD, 1:1 backed by USDC.e). If your wallet holds USDC.e, migrate at [simmer.markets/dashboard](https://simmer.markets/dashboard) with one click (~30s) - If you bridged native USDC (Circle), swap to USDC.e first, then migrate to pUSD - Full migration guide: [docs.simmer.markets/v2-migration](https://docs.simmer.markets/v2-migration) **"API key invalid"** - Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard -> SDK tab


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal:  | SkillSpector: suspicious (CRITICAL)