Skill: skybinjf/threshold-trader (version 1.0.0)

# Threshold Trader A simple probability-threshold trading skill for prediction markets. Trades when market prices diverge from your configured probability threshold by a minimum edge amount. > **This is a template.** The default signal is a fixed probability threshold — remix it with your own model predictions, external data feeds, or custom signals. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha. ## How It Works 1. **Monitor Markets**: Scans active markets on your configured venue (Polymarket or sim) 2. **Check Threshold**: Compares current market price against your configured probability 3. **Calculate Edge**: Only trades when edge exceeds minimum threshold (default 3%) 4. **Position Sizing**: Uses Kelly Criterion-based sizing for optimal stake amounts 5. **Safety Checks**: Reviews flip-flop warnings, slippage estimates, and edge analysis before executing 6. **Auto-Redeem**: Automatically collects payouts from resolved markets ## Configuration Configure via environment variables: - `THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY`: Your probability estimate (0.0-1.0). Default: 0.70 - `TRADE_SIDE`: Which side to trade ("YES" or "NO"). Default: "YES" - `SIMMER_VENUE`: Trading venue ("sim" for paper, "polymarket" for real). Default: "sim" - `SIMMER_MIN_EV`: Minimum edge to trade (0.0-1.0). Default: 0.03 (3%) - `SIMMER_KELLY_MULTIPLIER`: Kelly fraction (0.0-1.0). Default: 0.25 - `MAX_POSITION_SIZE`: Maximum position size in USD. Default: 100.0 ## Usage Install the skill: ```bash npx clawhub@latest install threshold-trader ``` Set your credentials and configuration: ```bash export SIMMER_API_KEY="your-api-key-here" export THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY="0.65" export TRADE_SIDE="YES" export SIMMER_VENUE="sim" # or "polymarket" for real money ``` Run manually: ```bash python threshold_trader.py ``` Or let the automaton run it every 15 minutes (configured in clawhub.json). ## Remixing The core logic is in `should_trade()` — swap the fixed threshold for: - **Your ML model**: Replace `THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY` with model predictions - **External APIs**: Fetch signals from news feeds, social sentiment, or market data - **Multi-market strategies**: Scan correlations across related markets - **Event-driven**: React to external triggers (sports scores, election results) The skill handles position sizing, safety checks, execution, and redemption. You focus on the signal. ## Safety Features - **Flip-flop detection**: Skips trades if you've been reversing positions too frequently - **Slippage protection**: Avoids illiquid markets with high slippage - **Edge validation**: Only trades when expected value exceeds threshold - **Dry-run default**: Paper trades unless you explicitly pass `--live` ## Examples Paper trade YES when probability is above 70%: ```bash export THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY="0.70" export TRADE_SIDE="YES" python threshold_trader.py ``` Real money trade NO when probability is below 30%: ```bash export THRESHOLD_PROBABILITY="0.30" export TRADE_SIDE="NO" export SIMMER_VENUE="polymarket" python threshold_trader.py --live ``` ## Requirements - `simmer-sdk` >= 1.0.0 - Python >= 3.8 - `SIMMER_API_KEY` from [simmer.markets/dashboard](https://simmer.markets/dashboard) --- name: threshold-trader description: Simple probability-threshold trading skill. Trades when market prices diverge from your configured threshold. Remixable template for custom signals. metadata: author: "Simmer Community" version: "1.0.0" displayName: "Threshold Trader" difficulty: "beginner" ---


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: suspicious (HIGH)