Skill: wanikua/abductive-reasoning (version 1.0.0)

--- name: abductive-reasoning description: Apply abductive reasoning to infer the best explanation from available observations. Use when the user has symptoms, clues, or data points and needs to reason backward to the most likely cause — like diagnostic thinking for doctors, detectives, or debugging. --- # Abductive Reasoning **Abductive reasoning** — or "inference to the best explanation" — starts from observations and works backward to the most likely explanation. Unlike deduction (which guarantees truth) or induction (which generalizes from patterns), abduction asks: *"Given what I see, what is the best explanation?"* It's how doctors diagnose, detectives solve cases, and scientists generate hypotheses. Peirce called it the only form of reasoning that produces genuinely new ideas. --- Analyze the current topic or problem under discussion using **abductive reasoning**. Start from the evidence and reason backward to the best explanation. Apply this framework to whatever the user is currently working on or asking about. --- ## Step 1: Catalog the Observations *What do we actually see? Be precise and comprehensive.* - List all **relevant observations, facts, data points, and phenomena**. - For each observation: - How **reliable** is it? (Directly observed? Reported? Inferred?) - How **precise** is it? (Exact measurement? Rough estimate? Anecdote?) - Is it **surprising** or **expected**? (Surprising observations are more informative.) - What **patterns** exist in the data? - What **anomalies** stand out — things that don't fit the expected pattern? - What is **conspicuously absent** — things you'd expect to see but don't? ## Step 2: Generate Candidate Explanations *What could explain these observations?* Generate at least **5 candidate explanations** (hypotheses), ranging from mundane to creative: 1. **The obvious explanation** — the first thing that comes to mind 2. **The conventional expert explanation** — what a domain expert would say 3. **The systemic explanation** — the root cause, not the proximate cause 4. **The unconventional explanation** — something outside the normal frame 5. **The null explanation** — maybe nothing unusual is happening (coincidence, noise, base rates) For each, briefly state the mechanism: *How would this explanation produce the observations we see?* ## Step 3: Evaluate Explanatory Power For each candidate explanation, assess: ### Coverage - Does it explain **all** the observations, or only some? - Does it explain the **anomalies** and surprises? - Does it account for what's **absent** as well as what's present? ### Precision - Does it make **specific, testable predictions** beyond what we already know? - Or is it vague enough to explain almost anything? (A bad sign — "just-so stories") ### Simplicity (Parsimony) - How many **unsupported assumptions** does it require? - Does it invoke **special mechanisms** or entities beyond what's necessary? - Occam's Razor: all else equal, prefer the simpler explanation. ### Consistency - Is it **consistent with known facts** and established science? - Does it **contradict** any reliable evidence? - Does it cohere with what we know about **how the world works**? ### Analogy - Is there **precedent** — has this type of explanation been correct in similar situations before? ### Fertility - Does it **open up new questions** and research directions? - Does it **connect** to other phenomena in illuminating ways? ## Step 4: Compare and Rank Create a comparison matrix: | Criterion | Explanation 1 | Explanation 2 | Explanation 3 | ... | |---|---|---|---|---| | Coverage | | | | | | Precision | | | | | | Simplicity | | | | | | Consistency | | | | | | Analogy | | | | | | Fertility | | | | | | **Overall** | | | | | - Which explanation comes out on top? - Is it **clearly** the best, or are multiple explanations roughly tied? - If tied, what **additional evidence** would break the tie? ## Step 5: Stress-Test the Best Explanation - What would **falsify** this explanation? What evidence would disprove it? - What are its **weakest points** — where is it most vulnerable? - What are the **key predictions** it makes that haven't been tested yet? - Play devil's advocate: make the **best case against** this explanation. - How might this explanation be **incomplete** even if it's on the right track? ## Step 6: The Crucial Experiment - Design the **single most informative test** to distinguish between the top 2-3 explanations. - What observation would you make? - What result would favor Explanation A vs. B? - Is this test **feasible** with available resources? ## Step 7: Conclusion - State the **best explanation** with appropriate confidence level. - Explicitly note what **remains uncertain** and what **assumptions** the explanation rests on. - Describe the **next steps** to further validate or refute the explanation. - Maintain intellectual humility: the best explanation given current evidence may be wrong. What would make you revise it? --- Abductive reasoning is the engine of discovery — but it's fallible. The best explanation today may be overturned by tomorrow's evidence. Hold conclusions firmly enough to act on, loosely enough to revise.


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