Skill: diagnostikon/polymarket-48h-equity-strike-trader (version 0.0.3)

--- name: polymarket-48h-equity-strike-trader description: Trades structural mispricings in equity/stock price-threshold markets by reconstructing the implied probability curve across strike levels for the same company and period, detecting monotonicity breaks and range-sum inconsistencies in strike ladders for PLTR, MSFT, NVDA, TSLA, SpaceX, Nasdaq-100, and other equity markets. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: 48h Equity Strike Trader difficulty: advanced --- # 48h Equity Strike Trader > **This is a template.** > The default signal is implied-CDF violation detection across equity price-threshold markets -- remix it with additional tickers, curve-fitting models, or cross-venue price feeds. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, curve construction, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha. ## Strategy Overview Polymarket lists equity strike-ladder markets analogous to options chains: - "Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week above $152?" = 7% - "Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week above $153?" = 23.5% <-- VIOLATION! - "Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week above $154?" = 18.5% - "Will Microsoft (MSFT) finish week above $370?" = 5% - Tesla delivery bins: <350k=46%, 350-375k=47.5%, 375-400k=13.5% Retail trades each market as an isolated bet. But together, these markets form an **implied probability distribution curve** across strike levels. This skill reconstructs that curve and finds where it is **mathematically broken**. ## The Edge: Options-Chain Arbitrage for Prediction Markets In traditional options markets, market makers enforce no-arbitrage pricing across strikes. Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each market is its own order book. ### Violation Type 1: Monotonicity Break The probability of being above a lower price must always be >= being above a higher price: ``` P(PLTR > $152) >= P(PLTR > $153) >= P(PLTR > $154) ``` If a higher strike is priced above a lower strike, the curve is broken. ### Violation Type 2: Range-Sum Inconsistency A "between" market's price must equal the difference of two "above" markets: ``` P($370 < MSFT < $380) == P(MSFT > $370) - P(MSFT > $380) ``` ### Violation Type 3: Bin-Sum Overflow/Underflow When a market has exhaustive bins (e.g., Tesla deliveries), all bins must sum to ~100%: ``` P(<350k) + P(350-375k) + P(375-400k) + P(>400k) ~= 100% ``` ## Why This Works 1. **Retail trades in silos** -- most users view each market independently and don't cross-reference the full strike ladder 2. **No options infrastructure** -- unlike traditional markets, there's no market maker maintaining curve consistency across strikes 3. **Mathematical, not opinion** -- the violations are provable inconsistencies, not subjective edge calls 4. **Broad coverage** -- applies to any equity/index with multiple strike-level markets ## Signal Logic 1. Discover equity price-threshold markets via keyword search (MSFT, PLTR, NVDA, TSLA, SpaceX, Nasdaq, etc.) 2. Parse each question: extract ticker, strike price(s), date/period, and type (above/between/below) 3. Group into curves by (ticker, date/period) 4. For each curve with 2+ points: - Check monotonicity across "above" markets - Check range-sum consistency for "between" markets - Check bin-sum consistency for exhaustive bin sets 5. Rank violations by magnitude 6. Trade only violations that also pass threshold gates (`YES_THRESHOLD` / `NO_THRESHOLD`) 7. Size by conviction (violation magnitude), not flat amount ## Safety & Execution Mode **The skill defaults to paper trading (`venue="sim"`). Real trades only with `--live` flag.** | Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |---|---|---| | `python trader.py` | Paper (sim) | None | | Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None | | `python trader.py --live` | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC | `autostart: false` and `cron: null` mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI. ## Required Credentials | Variable | Required | Notes | |---|---|---| | `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. | ## Tunables (Risk Parameters) All declared as `tunables` in `clawhub.json` and adjustable from the Simmer UI. | Variable | Default | Purpose | |---|---|---| | `SIMMER_MAX_POSITION` | `40` | Max USDC per trade at full conviction | | `SIMMER_MIN_TRADE` | `5` | Floor for any trade | | `SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME` | `5000` | Min market volume filter (USD) | | `SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD` | `0.08` | Max bid-ask spread | | `SIMMER_MIN_DAYS` | `0` | Min days until resolution (0 = allow same-day) | | `SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS` | `8` | Max concurrent open positions | | `SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD` | `0.38` | Buy YES only if market probability <= this | | `SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD` | `0.62` | Sell NO only if market probability >= this | | `SIMMER_MIN_VIOLATION` | `0.03` | Min curve violation magnitude to trigger a trade | ## Edge Thesis Traditional options markets have market makers who enforce curve consistency (no-arbitrage pricing). Polymarket has no such mechanism -- each market is priced by its own order book with its own liquidity pool. This creates systematic micro-inconsistencies in the implied distribution, especially when: - New markets are created at previously unlisted strikes - Large directional flow pushes one strike without propagating to neighbors - Market makers leave gaps during low-liquidity hours - Delivery/unit-count bin markets are added piecemeal without ensuring they sum correctly This skill treats the equity strike ladder as a probability lattice and trades the repair. ## Dependency `simmer-sdk` by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz) - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ - GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: clean | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: clean (LOW)