Skill: rafimchmd/poly-tradebot (version 1.0.4)

--- name: poly-tradebot description: Automated news analysis pipeline that fetches CNBC world news, classifies articles by topic (geopolitics vs macroeconomics), and invokes specialized skills (geopolitics-expert or the-fed-agent) to produce structured trading analysis. Use when you need systematic news-to-trading-signal workflow for Iran war, US economy, Fed policy, and market impact assessment. --- # Poly Tradebot ## Overview Poly-tradebot automates the news-to-trading-analysis workflow: fetches CNBC world news, filters by relevant tags (us, iran, war, market, the fed), classifies each article as geopolitics or macroeconomics, invokes the appropriate specialized skill (geopolitics-expert or the-fed-agent), discovers related Polymarket markets, and produces a unified trading analysis table with market data and expert recommendations. ## Workflow ### 1. Fetch CNBC World News ``` poly-tradebot fetch ``` Fetches articles from `https://www.cnbc.com/world/?region=world` using `web_fetch` tool. Extracts at least 3 articles matching tags: `us`, `iran`, `war`, `market`, `the fed`. **Article Selection Criteria:** - Headline or content contains at least one tag keyword - Published within last 24-48 hours (freshness) - Substantive content (not brief mentions) ### 2. Classify Article Topic For each fetched article, classify as: | Topic | Classification Triggers | Skill to Invoke | |-------|------------------------|-----------------| | **Geopolitics** | Iran, war, military, conflict, sanctions, regime, IRGC, drone, missile, Strait of Hormuz, UAE, Middle East tensions | `geopolitics-expert` | | **Macroeconomics** | Fed, Treasury yields, interest rates, inflation, central bank, CPI, employment, GDP, monetary policy, oil price (economic impact) | `the-fed-agent` | ### 3. Invoke Specialized Skill **For Geopolitics Articles:** ``` geopolitics-expert <article_url> ``` Produces 5-section output: 1. Conclusion 2. Economic/Commodity Impact 3. Commodity Trading Odds 4. War Duration Categorization 5. Termination Scenarios **For Macroeconomics Articles:** ``` the-fed-agent <article_url> ``` Produces 4-section output: 1. Conclusion 2. Economic/Commodity Impact 3. Commodity Trading Odds 4. What's Next Can Be Happened? (policy path scenarios) ### 4. Discover Polymarket Markets For each analyzed article, search Polymarket for related prediction markets: ``` web_search query="<topic> Polymarket market" site:polymarket.com web_fetch url=<polymarket_market_url> extractMode=markdown ``` Extract market metadata: - Market Title - Market URL - Resolve Date - Current Odds (Yes/No probabilities) - **Trading Volume** (24h + total volume) **Search Strategy:** - Use article keywords (e.g., "Iran war", "Fed rate hike", "Oil prices") - Filter to active/open markets - **Volume Filter**: Only include markets with total volume > $1,000,000 - **Odds Filter**: Only include markets with Yes% probability < 70% (contrarian edge) - **Minimum Markets**: Discover at least 10 qualifying markets across all articles - Prioritize high-liquidity markets for reliable odds ### 5. Output Per News Article Each article produces a standalone analysis file saved to `memory/`: - Geopolitics: `memory/geopolitics-YYYY-MM-DD-cnbc-<topic>.md` - Macroeconomics: `memory/macro-YYYY-MM-DD-cnbc-<topic>.md` **Output Format:** Follows exact skill output format (geopolitics: 5 sections, macro: 4 sections) PLUS a unified trading table. ### 6. Unified Trading Table Output After all articles are analyzed and Polymarket markets discovered, produce a summary table: | Market Title | Market URL | Resolve Date | Market Odds | Volume | Recommendation | Reason | |--------------|------------|--------------|-------------|--------|----------------|--------| | <market name> | <polymarket URL> | <date> | <Yes%> | $<volume> | **YES** or **NO** | <expert reasoning> | **Column Definitions:** 1. **Market Title**: Polymarket market name 2. **Market URL**: Direct link to the Polymarket market 3. **Resolve Date**: When the market resolves 4. **Market Odds**: Current Polymarket probability (Yes%) 5. **Volume**: Total trading volume (must be > $1,000,000) 6. **Recommendation**: Bold **YES** or **NO** based on expert analysis 7. **Reason**: Concise reasoning from geopolitics-expert or the-fed-agent (e.g., "75% forever war probability", "65% single 25bp cut only") **Output Requirements:** - **Minimum Markets**: At least 10 markets in the table - **Volume Filter**: All markets must have total trading volume > $1,000,000 - **Odds Filter**: All markets must have Yes% probability < 70% (contrarian opportunities) **Recommendation Logic:** - **YES**: Expert analysis supports the market outcome (expert probability > 60%) - **NO**: Expert analysis contradicts the market outcome (expert probability < 40%) - Include the key probability and rationale from the expert skill output ## Usage Examples ### Example 1: Full Pipeline Run ``` poly-tradebot ``` Fetches 3+ CNBC articles, classifies each, invokes appropriate skills, discovers Polymarket markets, outputs unified trading table (Yes/No recommendations with expert reasoning). ### Example 2: Re-run Workflow ``` poly-tradebot fetch ``` Re-fetches fresh articles from CNBC world page, re-runs classification, analysis, and market discovery pipeline. ### Example 3: Analyze Specific URL ``` poly-tradebot analyze <url> ``` Classifies and analyzes a single article URL, discovers related Polymarket markets, outputs Yes/No recommendation with expert reasoning. ### Example 4: Output Table Only ``` poly-tradebot table ``` Regenerates the unified trading table from existing memory analyses without re-fetching articles. ## Output Summary After pipeline completion, produces **ONLY** the Unified Trading Table: | Market Title | Market URL | Resolve Date | Market Odds | Volume | Recommendation | Reason | |--------------|------------|--------------|-------------|--------|----------------|--------| | <market name> | <polymarket URL> | <date> | <Yes%> | $<volume> | **YES** or **NO** | <concise expert rationale> | **Format Rules:** - **Table only** — no headers, no commentary, no additional sections - **Minimum Markets**: At least 10 markets in the table - **Volume Filter**: All markets must have total trading volume > $1,000,000 - **Odds Filter**: All markets must have Yes% probability < 70% (contrarian opportunities) - **Recommendation**: Bold **YES** or **NO** based on expert analysis probability - **Reason**: Concise expert rationale (e.g., "75% forever war probability", "65% single 25bp cut only") - **Market Odds**: Current Polymarket Yes% probability - **Volume**: Display total trading volume (e.g., "$2.4M") - Saved to `memory/poly-tradebot-table-YYYY-MM-DD.md` ## Skill Dependencies - `geopolitics-expert` — Required for geopolitics articles - `the-fed-agent` — Required for macroeconomics articles - `web_fetch` — Built-in tool for article retrieval - `web_search` — Built-in tool for Polymarket market discovery (optional) ## Resources ### references/ - `classification_rules.md` — Topic classification heuristics - `output_templates.md` — Format templates per skill type (geopolitics: 5 sections, macro: 4 sections) ### scripts/ - `fetch_cnbc.py` — Article fetching and parsing utility - `classify_topic.py` — Geopolitics vs macroeconomics classifier --- **Skill Version:** 3.1 **Created:** 2026-03-17 **Updated:** 2026-03-18 (v3.1: odds filter <70% for contrarian edge; v3.0: minimum 10 markets, volume filter >$1M, added Volume column) **Author:** poly-tradebot skill creator


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: clean | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: clean (LOW)