Skill: simmer/polymarket-wallet-xray (version 1.1.3)

--- name: polymarket-wallet-xray description: X-ray any Polymarket wallet — skill level, entry quality, bot detection, and edge analysis. Queries Polymarket's public APIs, no authentication needed. Inspired by @thejayden's "Autopsy of a Polymarket Whale" analysis. metadata: author: Simmer (@simmer_markets) version: "1.1.1" displayName: Polymarket Wallet X-Ray difficulty: beginner --- # Polymarket Wallet X-Ray Analyze **any** Polymarket wallet's trading patterns, skill level, and edge detection. **No authentication needed.** Queries Polymarket's public CLOB API directly. **Inspired by:** [The Autopsy: How to Read the Mind of a Polymarket Whale](https://x.com/thejayden/status/2020891572389224878) by [@thejayden](https://x.com/thejayden) > This skill implements the forensic trading analysis framework developed by @thejayden. Read the original post to understand the philosophy behind Time Profitable, hedge checks, bot detection, and accumulation signals. > **This is an analysis tool, not a trading signal.** The skill returns forensic metrics for ANY Polymarket wallet — your agent uses them to UNDERSTAND traders, learn patterns, and make informed decisions. This is for education and research, not for blindly copying positions. ## ⚠️ Important Disclaimer **Past performance does not guarantee future results.** A wallet's historical metrics tell you about: - ✅ How they traded *in the past* - ✅ Their *historical* win rate and entry quality - ❌ NOT whether their strategy will work going forward **Why copying is risky:** - Market conditions change constantly - A trader's edge might have been luck, timing, or specific to historical events - Slippage and fees erode thin edges to zero - Other traders copying the same strategy destroy the edge **Use this skill to:** - ✅ Learn what skilled traders look like (metrics, behavior) - ✅ Identify potential anomalies (bots, arbitrageurs) - ✅ Understand trader psychology (FOMO vs. discipline) - ✅ Inform your own strategy decisions **DO NOT use this skill to:** - ❌ Automatically copytrade wallets - ❌ Expect to replicate their returns - ❌ Trade on these metrics without understanding why - ❌ Risk significant capital on patterns you don't understand ## When to Use This Skill Use this skill when you want to: - **Learn how skilled traders operate** — What metrics separate winners from losers? - **Understand trading psychology** — Who chases prices? Who has discipline? - **Detect bots and anomalies** — Identify suspicious patterns for research - **Research arbitrage activity** — Find wallets with hedged positions (educational) - **Compare trader profiles** — What does a consistent trader look like vs. a lucky one? - **Inform your own strategy** — Use patterns as input to YOUR decision-making, not as direct signals **NOT for:** - Copying trades blindly or automatically - Assuming past returns = future returns - Making large bets on these metrics alone ## Setup Flow When user asks to install or configure this skill: 1. **Install the Simmer SDK** ```bash pip install simmer-sdk ``` 2. **Ask for Simmer API key** - They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab - Store in environment as `SIMMER_API_KEY` ## Quick Commands ```bash # Analyze a single wallet python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd # Analyze wallet + only look at specific market python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd "Bitcoin" # Compare two wallets head-to-head python wallet_xray.py 0x1111... 0x2222... --compare # Find wallets matching criteria (top Time Profitable in market) python wallet_xray.py "Will BTC hit $100k?" --top-wallets 5 --dry-run # Check your account status python scripts/status.py ``` **APIs Used (Public, No Auth Required):** - Gamma API: `https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets/keyset` — Market search (cursor-paginated) - CLOB API: `https://clob.polymarket.com` — Trade history and orderbook ## What You Get Back The skill returns comprehensive forensic metrics: ```json { "wallet": "0x1234...abcd", "total_trades": 156, "total_period_hours": 42.5, "profitability": { "time_profitable_pct": 75.3, "win_rate_pct": 68.2, "avg_profit_per_win": 0.035, "avg_loss_per_loss": -0.018, "realized_pnl_usd": 2450.00 }, "entry_quality": { "avg_slippage_bps": 28, "quality_rating": "B+", "assessment": "Good entries, occasional FOMO" }, "behavior": { "is_bot_detected": false, "trading_intensity": "high", "avg_seconds_between_trades": 45, "price_chasing": "moderate", "accumulation_signal": "growing" }, "edge_detection": { "hedge_check_combined_avg": 0.98, "has_arbitrage_edge": false, "assessment": "No locked-in edge; relies on direction" }, "risk_profile": { "max_drawdown_pct": 12.5, "volatility": "medium", "max_position_concentration": 0.22 }, "recommendation": "Good trader. Skilled entries, disciplined sizing. Good metrics for learning from. Not advice to copytrade." } ``` ## How It Works 1. **Fetch trade history** — Download all trades this wallet made from Polymarket via Simmer API 2. **Compute profitability timeline** — When were they underwater vs. profitable? 3. **Analyze entry quality** — Did they buy at optimal prices or chase? 4. **Detect trading patterns** — Bot (inhuman speed) vs. human (deliberate timing)? 5. **Check for arbitrage** — Combined YES+NO avg < $1.00? (Potential structural edge — depends on execution and fees) 6. **Assess behavior** — FOMO accumulation? Disciplined sizing? Rotating positions? 7. **Generate recommendation** — Is this wallet worth following? What's the risk? ## Understanding the Metrics ### ⏱️ **Time Profitable** (e.g., 75.3%) Wallet was profitable (not underwater) for 75% of their trading period. This wallet endured only 25% painful drawdowns — that's discipline. - **>80%** = Sniper-like (skilled entries, holds through drawdowns) - **50-80%** = Solid (good discipline) - **<50%** = Risky (likely panic-held losses) ### 🎯 **Entry Quality** (e.g., 28 bps average slippage) They buy near the best available price. 28 basis points is normal for active traders. No evidence of FOMO market orders. - **<20 bps** = Expert. Limit orders, patience. - **20-40 bps** = Good. Balanced speed/price. - **>50 bps** = Weak. Chasing prices. ### 🤖 **Bot Detection** (e.g., false) Average 45 seconds between trades. This is human. A bot would be <1 second. - **<5 sec** = Likely bot. Avoid unless you know it's a legitimate market maker. - **5-30 sec** = Possible bot. - **>30 sec** = Human. ### 💰 **Hedge Check** (e.g., combined avg 0.98) If they bought YES at $0.70 and NO at $0.30, combined = $1.00. This wallet spent exactly what they should to be neutral. If combined < $1.00, they may have entered with a structural edge (lower combined cost than $1 payout). Actual profit depends on execution, fees, and spread. - **< $0.95** = Strong potential edge. Likely institutional/pro. - **$0.95-1.00** = Slight edge detected. - **> $1.00** = No edge; betting on direction. ## Usage Examples ### **Example 1: Learning from a skilled trader (Analysis)** ```python import subprocess import json # Analyze a wallet known for skilled trading result = subprocess.run( ["python", "wallet_xray.py", "0x123...abc", "--json"], capture_output=True, text=True ) data = json.loads(result.stdout) # LEARN from their profile, don't copy blindly time_prof = data["profitability"]["time_profitable_pct"] entry_qual = data["entry_quality"]["quality_rating"] print(f"📊 What this trader does well:") print(f" • Time Profitable: {time_prof}% (disciplined)") print(f" • Entry Quality: {entry_qual} (patient buyer)") print(f" • Behavior: {data['behavior']['accumulation_signal']} (not FOMO)") # THEN: Ask yourself # - Why are they profitable? (skill or luck?) # - Can I replicate their decision-making process? # - Do I have their capital size, timing, or information? ``` ### **Example 2: Research anomalies (Education)** ```python # Analyze multiple wallets to understand patterns wallets = ["0x111...", "0x222...", "0x333..."] print("Comparing trader profiles:") for wallet in wallets: result = subprocess.run( ["python", "wallet_xray.py", wallet, "--json"], capture_output=True, text=True ) data = json.loads(result.stdout) is_bot = "🤖 BOT" if data["behavior"]["is_bot_detected"] else "👤 HUMAN" print(f"\n{wallet}: {is_bot}") print(f" Win Rate: {data['profitability']['win_rate_pct']}%") print(f" Time Profitable: {data['profitability']['time_profitable_pct']}%") # Use this data to understand what successful trading LOOKS LIKE # Then build your own strategy based on these insights ``` ### **Example 3: Informed decision-making (NOT blind copying)** ```python # Analyze before you decide what to do result = subprocess.run( ["python", "wallet_xray.py", "0x123...abc", "--json"], capture_output=True, text=True ) data = json.loads(result.stdout) # Make an INFORMED decision based on analysis + YOUR OWN JUDGMENT if data["profitability"]["time_profitable_pct"] > 75 and \ data["entry_quality"]["quality_rating"] in ["A", "A+"]: print(f"✅ This wallet shows skill (high Time Profitable, good entries)") print(f"⚠️ But I will NOT copytrade blindly.") print(f"📋 Instead, I'll:") print(f" 1. Backtest their patterns on fresh data") print(f" 2. Add my own market signals") print(f" 3. Start with small position (1-2% of capital)") print(f" 4. Monitor for next 30 days") print(f" 5. Adjust if it stops working") else: print(f"❌ This wallet doesn't show strong enough metrics.") print(f" Safer to avoid or research further before deciding.") ``` ## Running the Skill **Analyze a single wallet (default):** ```bash python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd ``` **Analyze wallet for a specific market:** ```bash python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd "Bitcoin" ``` **Output as JSON (for scripts):** ```bash python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd --json ``` **Compare two wallets:** ```bash python wallet_xray.py 0x1111... 0x2222... --compare ``` **Limit analysis to recent trades (faster):** ```bash python wallet_xray.py 0x1234...abcd --limit 100 ``` ## Troubleshooting **"Wallet has no trades"** - This wallet hasn't traded yet, or all trades are too old - Try a wallet you know is active **"Market not found"** - The market query didn't match anything on Polymarket - Try a more specific market name or leave it blank to analyze all markets **"Analysis took too long"** - For wallets with >500 trades, analysis can take 30+ seconds - Use `--limit 100` to analyze only recent trades for faster results **"API rate limited"** - You're analyzing many wallets in quick succession - Wait a minute before trying again, or use `--limit` to speed up individual analyses **"Connection error"** - Check that Polymarket's CLOB API is reachable: `curl https://clob.polymarket.com/trades` - If down, try again later or use `--limit 50` to reduce load ## Credits This skill is based on the forensic trading analysis framework from [@thejayden's "Autopsy of a Polymarket Whale"](https://x.com/thejayden/status/2020891572389224878). The original post shows how to: - Spot fake gurus (high PnL, terrible entries) - Detect bots (inhuman trading speed) - Find arbitrage opportunities (hedged positions) - Understand trader psychology (FOMO vs. discipline) All metrics and analysis patterns used here are derived from that work. If you find this useful, give the original post a read and follow [@thejayden](https://x.com/thejayden). ## Links - **Full Simmer API Reference:** [simmer.markets/docs.md](https://simmer.markets/docs.md) - **Original Analysis:** [The Autopsy: How to Read the Mind of a Polymarket Whale](https://x.com/thejayden/status/2020891572389224878) - **Dashboard:** [simmer.markets/dashboard](https://simmer.markets/dashboard) - **Support:** [Telegram](https://t.me/+m7sN0OLM_780M2Fl)

path: clawhub.json
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Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: suspicious (CRITICAL)