Skill: gold3bear/investment-risk-scanner (version 2.1.0)

--- name: investment-risk-scanner description: > Investment risk scanner using Buffett + Porter's Five Forces framework. Triggers when users ask "analyze XXX's risk", "is this project legit", "can I buy this stock", "Buffett framework check", "is this business model sustainable", "Ponzi", "subsidy dependent", "loss making", "valuation". 5-layer Buffett framework + Porter's Five Forces as complementary check. Built-in cases: Qutoutiao, StepN, WeWork, Quibi, Tesla, NVDA, PLTR, COIN, AMC, RIVN, BYD, Geely. Key addition: Supply Chain Finance risks (迪链-type tools), Hidden liabilities, OCF quality analysis. --- # 🎯 Investment Risk Scanner — Buffett + Porter Framework ## Core Question **"What happens if the subsidies stop?"** + **"Where does the OCF actually come from?"** - Users still stay without incentive? → Probably OK ✅ - OCF comes from real business, not supplier/customer financing? → Clean ✅ - Users leave immediately? → Ponzi-lite 🚨 --- ## ⚠️ CRITICAL: OCF Source Quality Analysis **New mandatory check — Never look at OCF in isolation!** ### OCF Quality Matrix | OCF Source | Quality | Example | |------------|---------|---------| | Real product/service sales | ✅ Clean | Apple iPhone sales | | From supplier financing (欠供应商钱) | ⚠️ Dirty | 迪链模式 ⚠️ | | From customer advance payments | ⚠️ Dirty | 预售模式 | | From regulatory subsidies | ⚠️ Conditional | EV补贴 | | From working capital manipulation | 🚨 Dangerous | 延付供应商+提前收客户 | **The 迪链 Lesson (BYD case)**: ``` BYD OCF = ¥593亿 → Looks great! BUT: ¥4000亿+ 迪链规模 = OCF partially from supplier financing Real business OCF ≈ ¥593亿 - 供应商资金占用 ≈ ？ ``` --- ## Part 1: Five-Layer Buffett Framework ### Layer 1: Business Model | Check | Pass ✅ | Danger 🚨 | |-------|---------|-----------| | Subsidy test | Users stay without incentive | 🚨 No (Qutoutiao/StepN) | | Moat describable? | Clear description | 🚨 Vague | | Competitor replication time | >3 years | 🚨 Cloneable anytime | | DCF/Owner Earnings | Positive or estimable | ⚠️ Unclear | ### Layer 2: Unit Economics | Check | Formula | Danger Signal | |-------|---------|--------------| | User value | Ad revenue > incentive cost? | Qutoutiao style 🚨 | | Token value | Real cash flow support? | StepN style 🚨 | | Lending model | Rate > cost + defaults? | P2P style 🚨 | | Gross margin | >15% (industrial) | Below = weak ⚠️ | | Revenue vs FCF quality | Is growth funded by real economics? | ⚠️ | ### Layer 3: Management | Check | Pass ✅ | Danger 🚨 | |-------|---------|-----------| | Skin in Game | Major personal stake | 🚨 Barely holds shares | | Track record | Delivers on promises | 🚨 Misses commitments | | Narrative | Talks about moat | 🚨 Only talks about growth | | Incentives | Aligned with shareholders | 🚨 Misaligned | | Supplier relations | Treats suppliers fairly | 🚨 Exploits suppliers | **Quantitative**: Founder/stakeholder ownership >20% = strong signal ✅ ### Layer 4: Valuation & Margin of Safety | Check | Pass ✅ | Danger 🚨 | |-------|---------|-----------| | DCF estimable? | Reasonable assumptions | 🚨 Pure speculation | | Margin of safety? | >30% | 🚨 Zero margin | | Sustainable growth? | <3% | �️ 5%+ unrealistic | | Growth quality? | Organic | 🚨 Fundraising-dependent | **Quantitative Thresholds**: | Metric | Safe ✅ | Warning ⚠️ | Danger 🚨 | |--------|---------|------------|--------| | Forward P/E | <20x | 20-40x | >40x | | PEG Ratio | <1.0 | 1.0-2.0 | >2.0 | | P/S | <2x | 2-5x | >5x | | P/B | <3x | 3-8x | >8x | | FCF | Positive | Breakeven | Persistent negative | | ROE | >15% | 8-15% | <8% | | Net Margin | >10% | 3-10% | <3% | | Debt/Equity | <30% | 30-60% | >60% | ### Layer 5: Structural Risk | Check | Red Flag 🚩 | |-------|-------------| | Liquidity | Runway <12 months | | Regulation | Depends on regulatory arbitrage | | Technology | Single-tech dependency | | Competition | Rapidly disrupting industry | | Geopolitics | Major market concentration | | **Supply Chain Finance** | **Relies on supplier financing (迪链-type)** 🚨 | --- ## Part 2: Porter's Five Forces (Complementary Framework) ### Why add Porter's Five Forces? **Buffett's blind spot**: He focuses on "Is this a good business?" but misses "How does industry structure determine profitability?" **The 迪链 lesson**: BYD looked great by Buffett metrics (OCF ¥593B, PE 19.7x) but Porter's Five Forces would immediately ask: > "Why can BYD extract ¥4000B+ from suppliers?" → Supplier power is weak → Unstable moat ### The Five Forces ``` New Entrants ↓ ┌───────────────────────────┐ │ Industry Competition │ │ (Price War = High) │ └───────────────────────────┘ ↑ ↑ Suppliers ← → Buyers (Weak = Good) (Competitive = Bad) ``` ### Force 1: Bargaining Power of Suppliers | Supplier Power | Implication | Example | |----------------|-------------|---------| | Weak (fragmented) | Company can extract value | BYD vs small suppliers ✅ | | Strong (concentrated) | Suppliers capture value | Rare earth miners 🚨 | | **Danger Pattern** | Company survives by squeezing suppliers | 迪链模式 ⚠️ | **Critical Check**: *If a company's "moat" is based on supplier exploitation, how sustainable is it?* ### Force 2: Bargaining Power of Buyers | Buyer Power | Implication | Example | |-------------|-------------|---------| | Weak (fragmented) | Company sets prices | Apple App Store ✅ | | Strong (concentrated) | Buyers extract value | Car dealers vs OEMs ⚠️ | | **In EV market** | Price war = buyer power HIGH | Bad for all EV makers ⚠️ | ### Force 3: Competitive Rivalry | Competition Level | Signal | Example | |-----------------|--------|---------| | Low | Moat is real | Apple's ecosystem ✅ | | High (price war) | Commodity trap | China EV market 🚨 | | **Price War = Maturity Stage** | Buffett: "bad industry" | EV 2024-2026 ⚠️ | ### Force 4: Threat of New Entrants | Barrier to Entry | Pass | Fail | |-----------------|------|------| | Capital requirements | High barrier ✅ | Low barrier 🚨 | | Network effects | Strong barrier ✅ | No barrier 🚨 | | Regulatory barriers | Protects incumbent ✅ | Open competition 🚨 | ### Force 5: Threat of Substitutes | Substitute Risk | Example | |-----------------|---------| | Low | iPhone → App Store ecosystem ✅ | | High | Fuel car → EV ⚠️ | | Very High | Physical retail → E-commerce 🚨 | --- ## Part 3: Supply Chain Finance Risk (迪链-Type) ### 🚨 New Mandatory Check **Ask this for every company:** | Check | Question | Danger Signal | |-------|----------|--------------| | Supply chain financing | Does company use supplier financing tools? | 迪链/商票模式 ⚠️ | | Scale | How large is supply chain finance? | >20% of OCF 🚨 | | Supplier dependency | Are suppliers highly dependent on this company? | Yes = systemic risk ⚠️ | | What-if scenario | What if sales drop 30%? Can suppliers survive? | Supplier collapse = company risk ⚠️ | ### The 迪链 Pattern (Case Study) ``` Company Profile: - OCF: ¥593B positive ✅ - Apparent debt: ¥277B (5% of liabilities) ✅ - Reality: ¥4000B+ 迪链 (supply chain financing) ⚠️ - Real net debt: ¥3230B (vs reported ¥277B) 🚨 Key Insight: OCF ¥593B ≠ "Great business" OCF ¥593B = "Real business ¥593B" + "Supplier financing ¥???B" Danger: If monthly sales drop below threshold (BYD: ~150k/month), suppliers face cash crunch → systemic redemption crisis ``` ### Red Flags for Supply Chain Finance | Flag | What It Means | |------|--------------| | Company brags about "zero-interest supplier financing" | They're extracting from suppliers ⚠️ | | Supplier Average Payment Period > 180 days | Likely using supply chain finance ⚠️ | | Reported debt low but company dominates suppliers | Hidden leverage ⚠️ | | Industry has "dominant player" + weak suppliers | Systemic risk if dominant player stumbles ⚠️ | --- ## Part 4: Hidden Liabilities Checklist ### 🚨 New Section — Always Check These | Hidden Liability | How to Detect | Risk Level | |----------------|---------------|-----------| | Supply chain financing (迪链) | Notes payable + accounts payable days | 🚨 High | | Operating lease obligations | Off-balance sheet leases | ⚠️ Medium | | Product warranties/recalls | Accumulated warranty reserves | ⚠️ Medium | | Environmental remediation | EPA-type obligations | ⚠️ Medium | | Pension underfunding | Pension assets vs liabilities | ⚠️ Medium | | Related party guarantees | Guarantees on affiliate debt | 🚨 High | | Sales-type leasing (dealer inventory) | Auto manufacturers special | 🚨 High | **Formula for Real Net Debt**: ``` Real Net Debt = Reported Net Debt + Supply Chain Finance (迪链-type) + Operating Lease PV + Pension Underfunding + Related Party Guarantees - Excess Cash above operational needs ``` --- ## Part 5: Industry Lifecycle Check ### Which Stage Is This Industry In? | Stage | Characteristics | Investment Implication | |-------|----------------|----------------------| | **Introduction** | High growth, unproven model | High risk, high reward | | **Growth** | Revenue growing 20%+, competition emerging | Buy if moat forming | | **Mature** | Growth <10%, price war begins | ⚠️ Buffett: "bad industry" | | **Decline** | Revenue shrinking, overcapacity | 🚨 Avoid | **The Price War Signal**: ``` Mature/Decline Indicators: - Industry-wide price cuts - "Winner takes all" narrative - Capacity expansion despite declining margins - Weak players not exiting → Buffett 1977: "In bad industries, even brilliant management fails" ``` --- ## Updated Case Library | Project | Type | Conclusion | |---------|------|-----------| | Qutoutiao | Ponzi-lite | 🚨 Avoid — no moat, DCF always negative | | StepN | Ponzi-lite | 🚨 Avoid — token has no cash flow, Ponzi structure | | WeWork | Turnaround trap | 🚨 Avoid — no moat, management failure | | Quibi | Concept failure | 🚨 Avoid — no user stickiness, unit economics collapsed | | AMC | Meme-stock Ponzi | 🚨 Avoid — dilution machine, bankruptcy risk | | RIVN | EV price war victim | 🚨 Avoid — burning cash, no clear path to profit | | COIN | Crypto policy bet | 🚨 High Risk — regulatory uncertainty is existential | | TSLA | Dream stock | 🚨 High Risk — PE 341, Elon Musk concentration risk | | PLTR | Government dependency | ⚠️ Watch — AIP promising but PE 500+ is rich | | NVDA | AI infrastructure moat | ⚠️ Watch — real moat but fully priced in | | **BYD** | EV with hidden supply chain risk | 🚨 Watch — PE 19.7x cheap BUT ¥4000B+ 迪链 ⚠️⚠️ | | **Geely** | Cheap EV, strong founder | ⚠️ Watch — PE 11x extremely cheap, FCF positive | ### BYD Analysis (Updated with 迪链 Finding) **Updated structural risk**: 🔴 **Extremely High** (was "High") | Risk | Level | Note | |------|-------|------| | 迪链 Supply Chain Finance | 🚨 ¥4000B+ hidden | Real net debt ¥3230B vs reported ¥277B | | Price War | 🚨 Extreme | China EV = mature stage, price war | | Geopolitical | 🚨 High | US 100% tariff, EU tariffs | | OCF Quality | ⚠️ Mixed | Real ¥593B + supplier financing | | Moat Sustainability | ⚠️ Uncertain | Moat based partly on supplier extraction | **New Conclusion**: ⚠️ **Watch — But with much higher risk than surface metrics show** --- ## Output Format Template (Updated) ``` ## 🎯 [Name] Risk Assessment ### 📋 Inspection Results | Dimension | Result | Note | |-----------|--------|------| | Business Model | ✅/⚠️/🚨 | [One sentence] | | Unit Economics | ✅/⚠️/🚨 | [One sentence] | | Management | ✅/⚠️/🚨 | [One sentence] | | Valuation | ✅/⚠️/🚨 | [One sentence] | | Structural Risk | Low/Med/High/🔴 Extreme | [Key risks] | ### 🔍 OCF Quality Analysis [NEW] | OCF Component | Amount | Quality | |---------------|--------|---------| | Real business OCF | ¥XXX | ✅ Clean | | Supplier financing | ¥XXX | ⚠️ Dirty | | Customer advances | ¥XXX | ⚠️ Conditional | | **Total Reported OCF** | ¥XXX | [Mix assessment] | ### ⚠️ Porter's Five Forces Summary | Force | Level | Implication | |-------|-------|-------------| | Supplier Power | Strong/Weak | [Note] | | Buyer Power | Strong/Weak | [Note] | | Competitive Rivalry | High/Med/Low | [Note] | | New Entrant Threat | High/Med/Low | [Note] | | Substitute Threat | High/Med/Low | [Note] | ### ⚠️ Key Risks 1. [Most serious risk — include hidden liabilities if found] 2. [Secondary risk] 3. [Other observations] ### ✅ Potential Upsides 1. [If any] 2. [If any] ### 📊 Quantitative Scorecard | Metric | Value | Signal | |--------|-------|--------| | Forward P/E | xxx | ✅/⚠️/🚨 | | PEG | xxx | ✅/⚠️/🚨 | | ROE | xxx | ✅/⚠️/🚨 | | FCF | xxx | ✅/⚠️/🚨 | | Real Net Debt | xxx (vs reported yyy) | ⚠️ Hidden risk | | Debt/Equity | xxx | ✅/⚠️/🚨 | ### 📌 Framework Quotes > "[Relevant Buffett quote]" > "[Relevant Porter insight]" --- **Overall**: □ Investable □ Watch □ Avoid ``` --- ## Cross-Stock Comparison Template (Updated) ``` | Metric | [Stock A] | [Stock B] | Winner | |--------|-----------|-----------|--------| | Market Cap | $X | $Y | [A/B] | | Forward P/E | Xx | Yx | ✅ Cheaper | | **Real Net Debt** | ¥X (rep ¥Y) | ¥X (rep ¥Y) | ⚠️ Hidden risk | | **OCF Quality** | Clean/Mixed/Dirty | Clean/Mixed/Dirty | ✅ Cleaner | | ROE | X% | Y% | ✅ Higher | | Net Margin | X% | Y% | ✅ Higher | | FCF | $X | $Y | ✅ Better | | Debt/Equity | X% | Y% | ✅ Lower risk | | Supplier Power Dependency | High/Med/Low | High/Med/Low | ⚠️ Risk | | Founder Ownership | X% | Y% | ✅ Stronger | | Moat Depth | Strong/Med/Weak | ... | ... | | Price War Resilience | Strong/Med/Weak | ... | ... | | Industry Lifecycle | Intro/Growth/Mature/Decline | ... | ... | Overall: □ [A] □ [B] □ Tie ``` --- ## Quantitative Decision Matrix When scoring, use 1-5 stars: | Score | Meaning | Action | |-------|---------|--------| | ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐ (5) | Exceptional — rare opportunity | Strong buy | | ⭐⭐⭐⭐ (4) | Good — meets all criteria | Buy on dips | | ⭐⭐⭐ (3) | Average — mixed signals | Watch only | | ⭐⭐ (2) | Below average — multiple concerns | Avoid or sell | | ⭐ (1) | Poor — fails most tests | Avoid | **Final Score = Average of 5 layers** **Penalty**: If hidden liabilities >50% of reported → automatic downgrade 1 star --- ## Key Lessons from Recent Cases ### The 迪链 Lesson (BYD) ``` What we missed: OCF ¥593B looked great, but didn't ask "HOW?" Buffett asks: "Is this a good business?" Porter asks: "Why can this company extract ¥4000B from suppliers?" Answer: Because suppliers are weak → Not a sustainable moat New rule: Always ask "Where does the OCF actually come from?" ``` ### The Correct Process ``` 1. Buffett Layer 1-5: Check business quality 2. OCF Quality Check: Is OCF from real business or financing? 3. Porter Five Forces: Why does industry structure allow this? 4. Hidden Liabilities: What's NOT on the balance sheet? 5. Industry Lifecycle: Is this a price war (mature) industry? ``` --- ## Related Resources - Buffett Moat Framework: [[护城河 (Moat) - 投资概念]] - Buffett Valuation: [[内在价值 (Intrinsic Value)]] - Safety Margin: [[安全边际 (Margin of Safety)]] - Complete checklist: Feishu Wiki (投资风险快筛表)


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