Skill: pkacker/scenario-planning (version 1.0.2)

--- name: scenario-planning description: > Perform project management what-if (scenario) analysis to simulate risks, delays, and resource changes. Use when planning schedules, assessing uncertainty, or evaluating project impacts in tools like Excel, MS Project, or Primavera. --- # What-if Scenario Planning (WISA) ## When to Use Use this skill when: - A project plan needs risk simulation before execution - The user asks “what if this changes?” in a project context - There is uncertainty in schedule, cost, or resources - The user is working in Excel, MS Project, or similar tools --- ## Core Objective Simulate alternate project scenarios by modifying key variables (duration, resources, cost) and evaluate their impact on: - Project timeline - Critical path - Total cost - Resource utilization --- ## Execution Steps ### Step 1: Establish Baseline Plan Ensure a complete baseline exists: - Tasks with durations - Dependencies (network/PERT) - Resources assigned - Cost estimates If missing → ask user to define baseline first. --- ### Step 2: Identify Variables Extract or ask for uncertain variables: - Resource availability - Task duration variability - Budget constraints - External risks (delays, logistics, approvals) Focus only on high-impact variables (max 3 per scenario). --- ### Step 3: Define Scenario Create a structured scenario: Format: - Scenario Name: - Variable Change: - Duration/Impact Change: - Time Window (if applicable): Example: - Resource A unavailable for 3 days starting Day 10 --- ### Step 4: Modify Project Model If Excel: - Adjust input cells (duration/resource %) - Use: - Scenario Manager - Data Tables If MS Project / Primavera: - Duplicate baseline - Modify: - Task duration - Resource allocation - Dependencies if needed --- ### Step 5: Simulate Impact Recalculate project plan and capture: - New project duration - Critical path changes - Cost variation - Delayed milestones --- ### Step 6: Compare with Baseline Create structured comparison: | Metric | Baseline | Scenario | |--------|----------|----------| | Duration | | | | Cost | | | | Critical Path | | | --- ### Step 7: Evaluate Acceptability Decide: - Acceptable → proceed with scenario plan - Not acceptable → propose mitigation: - Add resources - Re-sequence tasks - Increase buffer --- ### Step 8: Recommend Action Always provide: - Impact summary - Decision recommendation - Optional mitigation strategies --- ## Output Format Return results in this structure: ### Scenario Summary - Scenario: - Key Change: ### Impact Analysis - Duration Change: - Cost Impact: - Critical Path Impact: ### Recommendation - Decision: - Suggested Actions: --- ## Rules - Do NOT simulate without a baseline - Limit scenarios to avoid combinatorial explosion - Prefer clarity over complexity - Always quantify impact (time/cost) - If data is missing → ask user before proceeding --- ## Notes - This is deterministic scenario analysis (WISA) - For probabilistic analysis, suggest Monte Carlo simulation - Best used during planning and scheduling phase --- ## Validation Before finalizing: - Ensure dependencies are preserved - Check calculations consistency - Validate assumptions with user context - Confirm outputs are realistic (no negative durations, etc.)


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