Skill: rafimchmd/the-fed-agent (version 1.0.2)

--- name: the-fed-agent description: Macroeconomics and central bank policy analysis. Use when analyzing Fed decisions, Treasury yields, inflation data, monetary policy statements, and central bank actions. Triggered by news articles about interest rates, inflation, economic data, or monetary policy. --- # The Fed Agent Analyzes central bank policy decisions and macroeconomic data through integrated frameworks to assess policy stance, inflation outlook, and market implications. ## Usage ``` the-fed-agent <news_url> ``` The skill fetches the news URL and produces a structured analysis with four outputs. ## Workflow ### Step 1: Fetch and Parse News Content Use `web_fetch` to extract article content from the provided URL. ### Step 2: Apply Analytical Frameworks Analyze the macroeconomic situation using these integrated frameworks (stored in `references/`): 1. **Fed Policy Framework** — dual mandate balance (employment vs. inflation) 2. **Inflation Transmission** — oil/commodity passthrough to CPI/PCE 3. **Stagflationary Dynamics** — growth slowdown + inflation rise scenarios 4. **Central Bank Credibility** — forecast revision patterns, forward guidance 5. **Great Power Entrapment** — geopolitical conflict impact on policy path ### Step 3: Generate Structured Output Produce analysis in this exact format: ``` ## 1. Conclusion [Clear thesis statement about central bank policy stance, inflation outlook, and policy bind. Include key decision metrics.] ## 2. Economic/Commodity Impact | Factor | Current Status | Policy Implication | |--------|---------------|-------------------| | [Rate decision] | [Value] | [Implication for policy path] | | [Inflation] | [Value] | [Implication for policy path] | | [Growth] | [Value] | [Implication for policy path] | | [Oil price] | [Value] | [Implication for policy path] | ## 3. Commodity Trading Odds | Position | Recommendation | Rationale | Risk Factor | |----------|---------------|-----------|-------------| | [Asset 1] | [Overweight/Underweight/Neutral] | [1-sentence rationale] | [Key risk] | | [Asset 2] | [Overweight/Underweight/Neutral] | [1-sentence rationale] | [Key risk] | | [Asset 3] | [Overweight/Underweight/Neutral] | [1-sentence rationale] | [Key risk] | **Key Risk:** [Single most important risk factor] ## 4. What's Next Can Be Happened? **Ranked by likelihood:** 1. **[Scenario Name]** — X% [2-3 sentence description including policy path and timeline] 2. **[Scenario Name]** — X% [2-3 sentence description including policy path and timeline] 3. **[Scenario Name]** — X% [2-3 sentence description including policy path and timeline] 4. **[Scenario Name]** — X% [2-3 sentence description including policy path and timeline] --- **Analysis anchors:** [Framework names: Fed policy framework, inflation transmission, stagflationary dynamics, etc.] ``` ## Framework Reference Read `references/frameworks.md` for detailed analytical models when complex macroeconomic situations require deeper assessment. ## Output Guidelines - **Be decisive** — provide clear probabilities, not vague ranges - **Anchor to frameworks** — cite specific indicators from the loaded models - **Market focus** — always tie back to trading implications (bonds, currencies, commodities) - **Scenario-ranked** — order policy scenarios by probability, not alphabetically - **4-section format** — Conclusion, Economic/Commodity Impact, Commodity Trading Odds, What's Next Can Be Happened

path: _meta.json
content: ownerId: kn7201wb9506zs9d5qswq9z7e182w3g8
slug: the-fed-agent
version: 1.0.0
publishedAt: 1773577853968

path: scripts/analyze.js
content: // scripts/analyze.js
// This script analyzes macroeconomic news from a given URL from the perspective of a Professional Fed Agent.

const url = process.argv[2]; // Get URL from command line arguments

if (!url) {
    console.error("Error: Please provide a URL to analyze.");
    process.exit(1);
}

async function analyzeNews(articleUrl) {
    try {
        // In a real Node.js environment, you would use a library like 'node-fetch' or 'axios'
        // to fetch the content. For this simulation, we'll assume content is retrieved.
        // Example: const response = await fetch(articleUrl);
        //          const textContent = await response.text();

        // Placeholder for fetched content. In a real scenario, this would be the actual article text.
        // For now, we'll simulate based on our current knowledge.
        let fetchedContent = `Analysis of ${articleUrl} based on current Fed Agent knowledge.`;

        // --- Simulate analysis based on learned context ---
        // This part would involve parsing fetchedContent, identifying key points,
        // and applying our knowledge of:
        // - Recession indicators
        // - Dual Mandate
        // - Inflation catalysts
        // - Monetary policy tension
        // - Supply/Demand shocks
        // - Current 2026 economic dashboard

        // For simulation purposes, I will construct a sample output based on recent analysis.
        // This would normally be dynamically generated.

        let analysis = {
            "Executive Summary": "Placeholder summary based on hypothetical news.",
            "Economic Impact Assessment": "Placeholder for economic impacts derived from the article.",
            "Monetary Policy Implications": "Placeholder for policy considerations.",
            "Consumer & Market Consequences": "Placeholder for effects on consumers and markets.",
            "Fed Action Framework": {
                "Recommended Stance": "Hold",
                "Monitoring Priorities": "Inflation expectations, energy prices.",
                "Communication Strategy": "Emphasize price stability.",
                "Contingency": "Prepare for potential rate hike if expectations unanchor."
            },
            "Strategic Takeaway": "Placeholder takeaway.",
            "Bottom Line": "Placeholder for concise conclusion."
        };

        // In a real execution, this would print a JSON string or formatted text.
        // console.log(JSON.stringify(analysis, null, 2));

        // For demonstration, we will print a simplified message.
        console.log(\`Simulated analysis for: \${articleUrl}\`);
        console.log(\`\n---\nBased on the article and our established Fed Agent knowledge, the key impacts are:\n\n\`);

        console.log(\`\x1b[1mExecutive Summary:\x1b[0m\nPlaceholder summary.\n\`);
        console.log(\`\x1b[1mEconomic Impact Assessment:\x1b[0m\nPlaceholder for economic impacts derived from the article.\n\`);
        console.log(\`\x1b[1mMonetary Policy Implications:\x1b[0m\nPlaceholder for policy considerations.\n\`);
        console.log(\`\x1b[1mConsumer & Market Consequences:\x1b[0m\nPlaceholder for effects on consumers and markets.\n\`);
        console.log(\`\x1b[1mFed Action Framework:\x1b[0m\n  Recommended Stance: Hold\n  Monitoring Priorities: Inflation expectations, energy prices.\n  Communication Strategy: Emphasize price stability.\n  Contingency: Prepare for potential rate hike if expectations unanchor.\n\n\`);
        console.log(\`\x1b[1mStrategic Takeaway:\x1b[0m\nPlaceholder takeaway.\n\`);
        console.log(\`\x1b[1mBottom Line:\x1b[0m\nPlaceholder for concise conclusion.\n\`);


    } catch (error) {
        console.error(\`Error analyzing news: \${error.message}\`);
        process.exit(1);
    }
}

analyzeNews(url);


path: references/dual-mandate-supply-shocks.md
content: # The Fed's Dual Mandate Amidst Geopolitical Supply Shocks

## Core Framework

As a senior Federal Reserve official, economic assessment is shaped by the **dual mandate**:
- **Maximum employment**
- **Stable prices**

We navigate a high-stakes "tension" between a softening labor market and resurging inflationary risks.

---

## Current Economic Assessment

### Labor Market Deterioration
- **February 2026 employment report**: U.S. economy shed **92,000 jobs** (vs. expected +59,000 gain)
- **Unemployment rate**: Climbed to **4.4%**, nearing a four-year high
- Downward revisions of previous months' data suggest broader cooling beyond strike activity (health care)
- **Signal**: Shift from job growth to job losses = classic recession precursor

### Inflationary Supply Shocks
- **Annual inflation**: Held steady at **2.4%** in February
- **Iran military conflict**: Introduced significant supply shock
- **Energy prices rebounding**: Fuel oil +11.1%, gasoline rising
- **Historical lesson**: Supply shocks cause falling output + rising prices simultaneously → notoriously difficult for monetary policy

### Weakening Sentiment and Output
- **Consumer sentiment**: Fell to 55.5 (lowest in 3 months) due to gasoline price fears
- **Manufacturing PMI**: Slowing
- **Services PMI**: Hit softest expansion pace in 10 months

---

## Policy Action: The Path Forward

### Immediate Recommendation
**Hold federal funds rate steady at 3.5%–3.75% target range**

**Rationale**:
- Prudent to assess "pass-through" effect of Iran conflict on inflation
- **Year-ahead inflation expectations**: Rose to 3.4% → cutting now could unanchor price stability
- Supply shocks can't be fixed by rate policy alone

### Conditional Pivot
If February job losses persist into next reporting cycle:
- **Pivot toward 25-basis-point cut** to prevent "hard landing"
- Governor Miran argument: Policy is "tighter than necessary" → cuts support labor market

---

## Recession Risk Assessment

**Significant and growing possibility of recession.** Classic precursors in play:

### 1. Supply Shocks
- Iran conflict mirrors 1970s oil crises (primary recession causes)
- Supply shocks are "pernicious": increase both unemployment AND prices
- Leaves Fed with no easy policy fix

### 2. Labor Market Signals
- "Significant decline in economic activity" begins with job growth → job losses shift
- February 2026: 92K jobs lost (first major reversal)

### 3. Consumer Behavior
- Spontaneous confidence changes → fear of future → decreased spending
- Triggers demand-induced recession

---

## Policy Tension Dynamics

### Hawkish Pressures
- Inflation expectations de-anchoring (3.4% year-ahead)
- Energy pass-through risk to core inflation
- Price stability mandate

### Dovish Pressures
- Labor market deterioration (92K job loss, 4.4% unemployment)
- Growth slowdown from energy constraints
- Maximum employment mandate

### Optimal Stance
**Data-dependent hold** with clear thresholds:
- **Hold**: If core inflation ex-energy holds firm, unemployment stable
- **Dish tilt**: If unemployment ticks up, job losses continue
- **Hawkish rhetoric**: If inflation expectations de-anchor (not action)

---

## Historical Parallels

### 1973/1979 Oil Shocks
- Supply-driven stagflation (high inflation + slowing growth)
- Fed tightening didn't add oil barrels → crushed demand further
- Lesson: Supply shocks require patience, not reactive policy

---

## Key Monitoring Thresholds

| Indicator | Threshold | Policy Implication |
|-----------|-----------|-------------------|
| Unemployment | >4.5% | Dovish pivot consideration |
| Job losses | 2+ months consecutive | 25bp cut consideration |
| Core inflation ex-energy | >2.5% | Hold/extending pause |
| Inflation expectations | >3.5% year-ahead | Hawkish rhetoric |
| Oil price | >$150/b sustained | QT pause likely |

---

## Conclusion

Economy at most vulnerable point in years. Combination of:
- Sharp payroll drop
- Falling consumer sentiment  
- Major geopolitical energy shock

**Goal**: Soft landing, but recession risk elevated. Watch for persistence of February trends before pivoting.


path: references/frameworks.md
content: # The Fed Agent Frameworks

## 1. Fed Policy Framework

**Dual Mandate Balance:**
- **Employment** — labor market tightness, wage growth, unemployment rate
- **Inflation** — CPI, PCE, core inflation, inflation expectations

**Policy Stance Modes:**
- **Hawkish** — prioritizing inflation control, hiking bias
- **Dovish** — prioritizing employment support, easing bias
- **Neutral** — data-dependent, no clear bias

**Decision Triggers:**
- CPI/PCE prints >0.3% MoM → hawkish pressure
- Unemployment claims spike → dovish pressure
- Oil shock >$100 Brent → stagflationary bind

---

## 2. Inflation Transmission

**Oil Passthrough Channels:**
1. **Direct** — gasoline, diesel, heating oil prices
2. **Input costs** — manufacturing, transport, logistics
3. **Expectations** — consumer/business inflation expectations unanchoring

**Transmission Timeline:**
- **Immediate** (0-2 weeks): pump prices, futures markets
- **Near-term** (1-3 months): CPI energy component, PPI inputs
- **Medium-term** (3-6 months): core inflation, wage negotiations

**Fed Response Lags:**
- Policy meetings: 6-week FOMC cycle
- Data dependency: 1-2 month lag for inflation prints
- Real economy impact: 6-12 month transmission

---

## 3. Stagflationary Dynamics

**Definition:** Growth slowing + inflation rising simultaneously

**Indicators:**
- **Growth slowdown** — GDP revision down, PMI <50, employment weakening
- **Inflation rise** — CPI/PCE upward revisions, commodity surge
- **Policy bind** — Fed can't ease (inflation), can't hike (growth)

**Historical Precedents:**
- 1970s oil shocks → Volcker disinflation (aggressive hiking)
- 2008 commodity spike → GFC deflation (emergency easing)
- 2022 Russia-Ukraine → inflation peak then disinflation

**Current Regime (2026 Iran War):**
- Oil shock: +40% since Feb 28 ($65→$102 Brent)
- Growth: Empire State Index -0.2 vs 4.1 expected
- Policy: Fed hold at 3.50-3.75%, no clear path

---

## 4. Central Bank Credibility

**Credibility Markers:**
- **Forecast accuracy** — pre-war models vs. actual prints
- **Forward guidance** — consistency between statements and actions
- **Inflation anchoring** — 5Y5Y breakeven, survey expectations

**Credibility Risks:**
- **Overshoot** — inflation > target for extended period
- **Undershare** — growth misses, unemployment spikes
- **Whipsaw** — policy reversals (hawk→dove→hawk)

**2026 Iran War Impact:**
- Pre-war forecasts obsolete (RBA explicitly cited war)
- Fed to revise forecasts upward (March 2026 FOMC)
- Credibility requires acknowledging war duration = inflation duration

---

## 5. Great Power Entrapment

**Definition:** Geopolitical conflict extends timeline, limiting policy flexibility

**Mechanisms:**
- **Trade disruption** — China meeting delays, tariff threats
- **Alliance burden-sharing** — Trump pressuring allies on Hormuz security
- **Policy subordination** — monetary policy secondary to war termination

**Fed Implications:**
- Can't normalize until conflict terminates
- Inflation persistence = war persistence (80% forever war probability)
- Policy path contingent on geopolitical resolution, not just data

---

## Application Guidelines

**Use these frameworks when:**
- Analyzing Fed FOMC decisions
- Interpreting Treasury yield movements
- Assessing inflation data prints (CPI, PCE, PPI)
- Evaluating central bank statements (Fed, ECB, BoE, RBA)
- Connecting geopolitical conflict to monetary policy

**Output format:** 4-section structure (Conclusion, Economic/Commodity Impact, Commodity Trading Odds, What's Next Can Be Happened)


path: .clawhub/origin.json
content: version: 1
registry: https://clawhub.ai
slug: the-fed-agent
installedVersion: 1.0.0
installedAt: 1773584219997

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