Skill: diagnostikon/polymarket-candle-marubozu-trader (version 0.0.3)

--- name: polymarket-candle-marubozu-trader description: Trades marubozu continuation signals on Polymarket 5-minute crypto interval markets. A marubozu is an interval with extreme conviction (>65% or <35%) indicating full-body directional commitment with no hesitation. The next interval should continue in the same direction because extreme conviction reflects new information that has not yet fully propagated. Targets BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP Up or Down bundles with conviction-based position sizing. metadata: author: Diagnostikon owner: Diagnostikon version: "1.0.0" displayName: Candle Marubozu Continuation Trader difficulty: advanced --- # Candle -- Marubozu Continuation Trader > **This is a template.** > The default signal detects marubozu (extreme conviction) intervals in crypto 5-minute markets and trades the continuation on the next interval using conviction-based sizing. The skill handles all the plumbing (interval parsing, marubozu detection, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha. ## Strategy Overview Polymarket lists 5-minute interval markets for BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP: "Will BTC be Up or Down in the 10:50AM-10:55AM ET interval?" These resolve to YES (up) or NO (down) based on actual price movement. A "marubozu" in candlestick analysis is a candle with a full body and no wick -- extreme conviction with no hesitation. On Polymarket, this translates to an interval priced at >65% (bullish marubozu) or <35% (bearish marubozu). Marubozu is a continuation signal: the NEXT interval should follow the same direction because the extreme conviction reflects new information that has not yet been fully priced into subsequent intervals. ## Edge Unlike reversal strategies that fade strong moves, this skill trades **with** momentum when conviction is extreme. The continuation edge is structurally sound because: 1. **Information propagation lag** -- when an interval reaches >65% conviction, it reflects genuine new information (large move, news catalyst) that takes more than 5 minutes to fully propagate through the market 2. **Underpricing of continuation** -- Polymarket participants exhibit mean-reversion bias, systematically underpricing continuation after extreme intervals; they assume "it can't keep going" when the information says it will 3. **Marubozu vs. ordinary strength** -- an interval at 66% is qualitatively different from one at 56%; the former reflects near-consensus while the latter reflects mild directional lean. This skill only trades the extreme cases. 4. **Asymmetric payoff** -- because the next interval is underpriced for continuation, the YES/NO price offers favorable odds relative to the true conditional probability ## Signal Logic 1. Discover crypto interval markets via keyword search (`Bitcoin Up or Down`, `Ethereum Up or Down`, `Solana Up or Down`, `XRP Up or Down`) with a `get_markets(limit=200)` fallback 2. Parse each question to extract (coin, date_str, start_time_minutes) using regex 3. Group intervals by (coin, date) and sort by time 4. Scan for marubozu intervals: p > `MARU_THRESHOLD` (bullish) or p < 1-`MARU_THRESHOLD` (bearish) 5. Check the NEXT interval for continuation not yet priced: - **Bullish marubozu** (p > 0.65): if next interval p < 0.55, continuation is underpriced -> buy YES - **Bearish marubozu** (p < 0.35): if next interval p > 0.45, continuation is underpriced -> buy NO 6. Conviction scales with marubozu strength: an interval at 0.70 generates stronger conviction than one at 0.66 7. Size by conviction (distance from threshold), not flat amount ### Remix Signal Ideas - **Volume confirmation** -- only trade marubozu continuation if the extreme interval also had above-average trading volume, confirming genuine conviction rather than thin-market noise - **Multi-marubozu acceleration** -- if 2+ consecutive intervals are marubozu in the same direction, increase conviction multiplier for the continuation trade - **Binance order book depth** -- check real-time order book imbalance to confirm the directional move has structural support beyond Polymarket pricing - **Cross-coin marubozu** -- if BTC, ETH, and SOL all show bullish marubozu simultaneously, the signal is stronger (broad crypto rally vs. single-coin noise) - **Decay filter** -- marubozu strength decays over time; if 3+ intervals have passed since the marubozu, the continuation edge has likely been absorbed ## Safety & Execution Mode **The skill defaults to paper trading (`venue="sim"`). Real trades only with `--live` flag.** | Scenario | Mode | Financial risk | |---|---|---| | `python trader.py` | Paper (sim) | None | | Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None | | `python trader.py --live` | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC | `autostart: false` and `cron: null` mean nothing runs automatically until configured in Simmer UI. ## Required Credentials | Variable | Required | Notes | |---|---|---| | `SIMMER_API_KEY` | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as a high-value credential. | ## Tunables (Risk Parameters) All declared as `tunables` in `clawhub.json` and adjustable from the Simmer UI. | Variable | Default | Purpose | |---|---|---| | `SIMMER_MAX_POSITION` | `40` | Max USDC per trade at full conviction | | `SIMMER_MIN_TRADE` | `5` | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) | | `SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME` | `3000` | Min market volume filter (USD) | | `SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD` | `0.10` | Max bid-ask spread | | `SIMMER_MIN_DAYS` | `1` | Min days until resolution | | `SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS` | `10` | Max concurrent open positions | | `SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD` | `0.38` | Buy YES only if market probability <= this | | `SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD` | `0.62` | Sell NO only if market probability >= this | | `SIMMER_MARU_THRESHOLD` | `0.65` | Min probability for a bullish marubozu (bearish = 1 - this) | ## Edge Thesis Crypto 5-minute interval markets on Polymarket exhibit continuation bias after extreme conviction intervals. When an interval is priced at >65% (bullish marubozu) or <35% (bearish marubozu), the market is expressing near-consensus about the directional move. This extreme conviction typically reflects genuine new information -- a large price move, a news catalyst, or a structural shift -- that takes longer than 5 minutes to fully propagate. Polymarket participants systematically underprice continuation after marubozu intervals due to mean-reversion bias, creating an edge for the continuation trade. The skill exploits this by buying the continuation direction with conviction-based sizing that scales with marubozu strength and the distance from the trading threshold. ## Dependency `simmer-sdk` by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz) - PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/ - GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: clean | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: clean (LOW)