Skill: clawdiri-ai/einstein-research-bubble-dv (version 0.1.0)

--- id: 'einstein-research-bubble' name: 'Einstein Research — Market Bubble Risk Detector' description: 'Evaluates market bubble risk through quantitative, data-driven analysis using a revised Minsky/Kindleberger framework. Prioritizes objective metrics over subjective impressions to prevent confirmation bias and support practical investment decisions.' version: '1.0.0' author: 'DaVinci' last_amended_at: null trigger_patterns: [] pre_conditions: git_repo_required: false tools_available: [] expected_output_format: 'natural_language' --- # Market Bubble Risk Detector ## Overview This skill evaluates market bubble risk through a quantitative, data-driven analysis based on a revised Minsky/Kindleberger framework. It prioritizes objective metrics over subjective impressions to prevent confirmation bias and support practical investment decisions. **Core Principles:** - **Data over Narrative**: Relies on measurable data, not just "it feels frothy." - **Composite Score**: Generates a score from 0-100 to quantify bubble risk. - **Multi-Factor Model**: Incorporates sentiment, valuation, leverage, market structure, and new issuance data. - **Action-Oriented**: Provides clear thresholds for tactical adjustments (e.g., raising cash, hedging). --- ## When to Use This Skill **Explicit Triggers:** - "Are we in a stock market bubble?" - "Analyze the risk of a market crash." - "Is the market overvalued?" - "Should I be taking profits?" - User asks about "bubble risk," "market froth," "irrational exuberance," or "Minsky moment." **Implicit Triggers:** - User expresses anxiety about high valuations or a rapid market run-up. - User is considering de-risking their portfolio. --- ## Workflow ### Step 1: Execute the Data Collection and Analysis Script The `bubble-detector` CLI tool automates the entire process. ```bash bubble-detector run ``` The script performs the following actions: 1. **Fetches Data**: Collects data for each of the 7 quantitative indicators. - Put/Call Ratio (CBOE) - VIX Index (CBOE) - Margin Debt (FINRA) - Market Breadth (% Stocks > 200d MA) - IPO Issuance (e.g., from a public data source) - Retail Volume as % of Total - Forward P/E Ratio vs. Historical Average 2. **Normalizes Indicators**: For each indicator, it calculates a percentile rank over the last 5 years. A rank of 100 means the indicator is at its most "bubbly" level in 5 years. 3. **Calculates Composite Score**: A weighted average of the normalized indicator scores. - Sentiment (Put/Call, VIX, Retail Volume): 40% - Leverage (Margin Debt): 20% - Market Structure (Breadth): 20% - Valuation & Issuance (P/E, IPOs): 20% 4. **Generates Report**: Outputs a JSON file and a Markdown summary. ### Step 2: Analyze the Report **JSON Output (`bubble_report_YYYY-MM-DD.json`):** - Contains the raw data, normalized scores for each indicator, and the final composite score. **Markdown Report (`bubble_report_YYYY-MM-DD.md`):** - **Overall Bubble Score**: e.g., "78 / 100 (High Risk)" - **Indicator Dashboard**: A table showing the current value and normalized score for each of the 7 indicators. - **Key Drivers**: Highlights which indicators are contributing most to the high score. - **Historical Context**: Compares the current score to levels seen before previous market corrections. - **Recommended Posture**: Translates the score into a tactical recommendation. ## Interpretation & Recommended Actions The composite score maps to specific risk postures: - **0-40 (Low Risk - "Accumulate")**: - *Characteristics*: Fear is high, valuations are reasonable, leverage is low. - *Action*: A good time to be deploying capital and taking on risk. - **41-60 (Moderate Risk - "Cautious Accumulation")**: - *Characteristics*: Market is healthy but not cheap. Some signs of optimism are emerging. - *Action*: Continue to invest, but perhaps with a greater focus on quality. - **61-80 (High Risk - "Hold & Hedge")**: - *Characteristics*: Greed is prevalent, valuations are stretched, breadth may be narrowing. - *Action*: Hold existing positions, but stop new aggressive buying. Consider adding hedges (e.g., puts) or raising a small amount of cash. - **81-100 (Very High Risk - "Distribute & Protect")**: - *Characteristics*: Euphoria, extreme valuations, high leverage, widespread speculation. - *Action*: Systematically take profits from high-beta positions. Raise significant cash (e.g., 20-40%). Actively hedge the remaining portfolio. This is the time to be selling to the optimists. ## Important Considerations - **Not a Timing Tool**: This skill indicates *when risk is high*, not the exact top of the market. Bubbly conditions can persist for months. - **Context is Key**: Always present the score in the context of the underlying indicators. A high score driven by stretched valuations is different from one driven by extreme sentiment. - **No Panicking**: The goal is to make small, rational adjustments to risk exposure, not to sell everything in a panic.


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: clean | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: suspicious (HIGH)