Skill: spyfree/ai-displacement-monitor (version 1.0.2)

--- name: ai-displacement-monitor description: Monitor early-warning signals of AI-driven white-collar labor displacement and macro-financial spillovers. Use when you need a practical indicator framework, thresholds, alert logic, and concise risk updates for employment, consumption, and credit stress. --- # AI Displacement Monitor Use this skill to produce a structured risk monitor for AI-led labor substitution and downstream financial stress. ## Output Format Always return: 1. **Signal Board** (10 indicators with latest value, direction, threshold status) 2. **Composite Risk Light** (`GREEN` / `YELLOW` / `ORANGE` / `RED`) 3. **Actionable Notes** (portfolio/risk posture suggestions) 4. **Data Gaps** (missing or stale inputs) ## Indicator Framework Read `references/thresholds.example.json` and follow its indicator IDs, thresholds, and tiering. Also apply the "Industrial-Revolution Lens" when interpreting risk: - Do not evaluate layoffs alone. - Compare **substitution speed** vs **re-absorption speed** (new demand + new capex). - If substitution weakens labor but capex/reinvestment accelerates, avoid over-escalating crisis labels. - **Tier A (Leading labor demand)**: A1-A4 - **Tier B (Labor market confirmation)**: B1-B3 - **Tier C (Spillover: consumption/credit)**: C1-C3 ## Composite Rule - **YELLOW**: Tier A triggered >= 2 - **ORANGE**: Tier A >= 2 and Tier B >= 1 - **RED**: Tier A >= 2 and Tier B >= 1 and Tier C >= 1 - **GREEN**: otherwise ## Weak-Links Interpretation (Jones Lens) When assessing macro impact, apply a weak-links check: - Broad automation can still deliver gradual macro gains if key bottleneck tasks remain scarce. - Do not infer immediate macro collapse from partial task automation alone. - If bottleneck proxies remain tight (D3 worsening, D4 weak reinvestment), keep risk elevated. - If bottlenecks ease via reinvestment/capex and purchasing power improves (D1/D2), avoid over-escalation. ## Minimum Quality Rules - Time-stamp each metric and note frequency mismatch (weekly vs monthly vs quarterly). - If source coverage is partial, mark confidence as `low` or `medium`. - Never hide missing data; list it under **Data Gaps**. - If more than 3 indicators are missing, downgrade confidence by one level. ## Recommended Alert Style Keep alerts short and decision-oriented: - "What changed" - "Why it matters now" - "What to do next" ## Optional JSON Mode If user asks for machine-readable output, return: - `asOf` - `signals[]` (id, value, unit, threshold, triggered, trend) - `composite` - `confidence` - `gaps[]` - `notes[]`

path: references/thresholds.example.json
content: {
  "name": "AI Displacement Early-Warning Thresholds",
  "version": "1.0.0",
  "compositeRules": {
    "yellow": "TierA >= 2",
    "orange": "TierA >= 2 AND TierB >= 1",
    "red": "TierA >= 2 AND TierB >= 1 AND TierC >= 1"
  },
  "interpretationNotes": {
    "weakLinks": "Use weak-links logic: macro output can remain bottlenecked by non-automated tasks even when many tasks are automated.",
    "policy": "Escalate only when substitution speed clearly exceeds re-absorption speed and bottleneck indicators deteriorate together."
  },
  "indicators": [
    {
      "id": "A1",
      "tier": "A",
      "name": "White-collar job postings YoY",
      "proxy": "Indeed/major job board postings",
      "frequency": "weekly",
      "trigger": "4-week avg YoY < -10% (warning), < -20% (severe)"
    },
    {
      "id": "A2",
      "tier": "A",
      "name": "JOLTS openings in professional/business services",
      "proxy": "US JOLTS",
      "frequency": "monthly",
      "trigger": "3-month avg down >15% from 6-month peak"
    },
    {
      "id": "A3",
      "tier": "A",
      "name": "AI-job share vs non-AI white-collar share",
      "proxy": "LinkedIn / platform mix",
      "frequency": "monthly",
      "trigger": "Scissor widens for 2 consecutive months"
    },
    {
      "id": "A4",
      "tier": "A",
      "name": "Corporate 'AI efficiency + headcount discipline' guidance",
      "proxy": "Earnings call transcript counts",
      "frequency": "quarterly",
      "trigger": "Co-mention ratio rises for 2 consecutive quarters"
    },
    {
      "id": "B1",
      "tier": "B",
      "name": "Initial jobless claims (4-week avg)",
      "proxy": "US labor weekly claims",
      "frequency": "weekly",
      "trigger": ">15% above 12-month trough"
    },
    {
      "id": "B2",
      "tier": "B",
      "name": "Continuing claims",
      "proxy": "US labor continuing claims",
      "frequency": "weekly",
      "trigger": "YoY turns positive and rises for 6 weeks"
    },
    {
      "id": "B3",
      "tier": "B",
      "name": "Median unemployment duration",
      "proxy": "BLS unemployment duration",
      "frequency": "monthly",
      "trigger": "Rises for 3 consecutive months"
    },
    {
      "id": "C1",
      "tier": "C",
      "name": "Upper-income consumption proxy",
      "proxy": "Premium discretionary spend / travel / luxury",
      "frequency": "monthly",
      "trigger": "YoY flips negative and worsens for 2 months"
    },
    {
      "id": "C2",
      "tier": "C",
      "name": "Consumer credit delinquency",
      "proxy": "Credit card / personal loan delinquencies",
      "frequency": "quarterly",
      "trigger": "Rises for 2 quarters and > post-2021 mean +1 sigma"
    },
    {
      "id": "C3",
      "tier": "C",
      "name": "US high-yield OAS",
      "proxy": "HY OAS spread",
      "frequency": "daily",
      "trigger": ">450 bps (stress), >550 bps (severe)"
    },
    {
      "id": "D1",
      "tier": "D",
      "name": "AI-linked capex momentum",
      "proxy": "Power grid / data center / semis / network capex trend",
      "frequency": "monthly/quarterly",
      "trigger": "If broad AI capex growth >20% YoY for 2+ quarters, treat as re-absorption support"
    },
    {
      "id": "D2",
      "tier": "D",
      "name": "Real wage purchasing power",
      "proxy": "Real wage growth vs core service price trend",
      "frequency": "monthly",
      "trigger": "If real purchasing power improves for 3+ months, downgrade crisis pressure by one notch"
    },
    {
      "id": "D3",
      "tier": "D",
      "name": "Unemployment structure",
      "proxy": "Share of long-duration unemployment",
      "frequency": "monthly",
      "trigger": "If long-duration share rises persistently, confirms structural stress"
    },
    {
      "id": "D4",
      "tier": "D",
      "name": "Profit-investment coupling",
      "proxy": "Corporate margins vs business fixed investment",
      "frequency": "quarterly",
      "trigger": "If margins rise without reinvestment, fragility risk rises; if both rise, industrial-transition path is healthier"
    }
  ]
}


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: clean | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: suspicious (MEDIUM)