Skill: georges91560/polymarket-executor-skill (version 2.0.0)

--- name: polymarket-executor description: Autonomous multi-strategy trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets. Scans ALL markets (crypto, politics, sports, economics, entertainment) for parity arbitrage, tail-end trading, and logical arbitrage opportunities. Features paper trading mode, Kelly Criterion position sizing, circuit breakers, and full optimizer integration via learned_config.json. version: 2.0.0 metadata: openclaw: emoji: "🎯" requires: bins: ["python3"] env: required: [] optional: - POLYMARKET_API_KEY - POLYMARKET_SECRET - POLYMARKET_PASSPHRASE - POLYMARKET_WALLET_ADDRESS - POLYMARKET_CAPITAL - TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN - TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID - PAPER_MODE - WORKSPACE network_behavior: makes_requests: true endpoints_allowed: - "https://clob.polymarket.com/*" - "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/*" - "https://api.telegram.org/bot*" requires_credentials: false # Paper mode works without credentials uses_websocket: false security_level: "L3 - Financial Execution (Real Money in live mode)" author: "Georges Andronescu (Wesley Armando)" license: "MIT" homepage: "https://github.com/georges91560/polymarket-executor" repository: "https://github.com/georges91560/polymarket-executor" --- # Polymarket Executor — Multi-Strategy Trading Bot ## 🎯 WHAT IT DOES Autonomous trading bot for Polymarket prediction markets. Starts in **paper mode** (simulated capital, zero risk) to validate strategy performance before deploying real money. Reads configuration from `learned_config.json` (adjusted automatically by `polymarket-optimizer` every 6 hours). **Markets covered:** - ✅ Crypto (BTC, ETH, altcoins — price targets, daily/weekly) - ✅ Politics (elections, policy, polls, government decisions) - ✅ Sports (NBA, NFL, MLB, NHL, Soccer, UFC, Tennis, Golf) - ✅ Economics (Fed rates, CPI, jobs reports, GDP) - ✅ Technology (Apple, Tesla, Google, IPOs, launches) - ✅ Entertainment (Oscars, Emmys, box office) - ✅ Weather (hurricanes, temperature records, climate events) - ✅ Miscellaneous (all binary outcome markets) **Total markets scanned:** 500–5000+ per cycle --- ## ⚡ QUICK START ### Paper Mode (Default — No credentials needed) ```bash cd /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-executor python3 polymarket_executor.py ``` Expected output: ``` ============================================================ POLYMARKET EXECUTOR v2.0.0 ============================================================ [MODE] 📄 PAPER TRADING (simulated capital: $100.00) [CONFIG] Loaded learned_config.json [GAMMA] Fetched 2,341 markets [SCAN] Scanning 500 markets with 50 workers... [SCAN] Found 8 opportunities [TRADE] PAPER: parity_arbitrage | YES+NO = $0.94 | Edge: 6.3% [PORTFOLIO] Capital: $100.00 | Open: 2 | P&L: +$0.00 ``` ### Live Mode (After paper validation) ```bash export PAPER_MODE=false export POLYMARKET_API_KEY="your_key" export POLYMARKET_SECRET="your_secret" export POLYMARKET_PASSPHRASE="your_passphrase" export POLYMARKET_CAPITAL=50.0 python3 polymarket_executor.py ``` --- ## 🔥 STRATEGIES ### 1. Parity Arbitrage — Risk: ZERO ✅ **YES + NO prices don't sum to $1.00 → buy both → guaranteed profit** ``` YES: $0.45 + NO: $0.49 = $0.94 total Buy both → payout: $1.00 → profit: 6.4% Risk: NONE (guaranteed regardless of outcome) ``` Frequency: 5–20/day | Win rate: 100% --- ### 2. Tail-End Trading — Risk: Very Low ✅ **Buy >95% certainty outcomes, wait for $1.00 resolution** ``` Fed keeps rates → 98% certain → price: $0.97 Buy at $0.97 → resolution: $1.00 → profit: 3.1% Risk: Very low (event almost certain) ``` Frequency: 10–30/day | Win rate: 95–98% --- ### 3. Logical Arbitrage — Risk: Low ✅ **Finds impossible price combinations between related markets** ``` "BTC > 100k by March" = 40% "BTC > 90k by March" = 35% ← IMPOSSIBLE (90k < 100k) Buy "BTC > 90k" at 35% — must resolve ≥ "BTC > 100k" ``` Frequency: 2–10/day | Win rate: 90–95% --- ## 📊 RISK MANAGEMENT | Protection | Value | Description | |---|---|---| | Kelly Criterion | 25% fraction | Conservative position sizing | | Max position | 10% of capital | Per-market limit | | Max concurrent | 3 trades | Open positions cap | | Circuit breaker | -15% daily | Halts all trading | | Stop-loss | -50% per position | Auto-close losing trades | | Max daily trades | 20 | Hard cap per day | --- ## 🧠 ADAPTIVE LEARNING The executor reads `learned_config.json` at startup. The optimizer updates this file every 6 hours. **What adapts automatically:** - `min_parity_profit` — raised if false positives, lowered if win rate excellent - `min_tail_end_certainty` — adjusted based on tail-end win rate - `min_logical_edge` — tightened if logical arb underperforms - `kelly_fraction` — reduced if portfolio in drawdown - `strategy_allocation` — capital shifted toward best-performing strategies - `scan_interval_seconds` — faster scans when performing well --- ## 📁 FILES CREATED | File | Description | |---|---| | `paper_trades.json` | All simulated trade records | | `portfolio.json` | Capital, positions, daily P&L | | `performance_metrics.json` | Per-strategy stats for optimizer | | `live_trades.jsonl` | Real trade log (live mode only) | | `learned_config.json` | Optimizer-adjusted parameters | --- ## 📱 TELEGRAM ALERTS ``` 🎯 POLYMARKET SCAN COMPLETE 📊 Markets scanned: 500 🔍 Opportunities: 8 💼 PORTFOLIO 💰 Capital: $100.00 📈 Daily P&L: +$2.34 🎯 Win Rate: 75.0% 📊 Open positions: 2 📋 OPPORTUNITIES • parity_arbitrage: 6.3% edge Fed Rate Decision — Keeps... • tail_end: 3.1% edge Chiefs win Super Bowl... ``` --- ## ✅ LIVE READINESS CHECKLIST Before switching `PAPER_MODE=false`: - [ ] 30+ resolved paper trades - [ ] Win rate ≥ 55% - [ ] Positive total P&L - [ ] No circuit breaker triggered - [ ] Polymarket API credentials configured - [ ] USDC on Polygon wallet - [ ] Residential proxy configured (VPS blocks CLOB POST) The `polymarket-optimizer` will report readiness automatically. --- ## ⚠️ VPS / PROXY NOTE Polymarket CLOB API blocks datacenter IPs (including Hostinger VPS) for POST /order. **Reading markets:** works fine on VPS (no proxy needed) **Placing orders:** requires residential proxy in live mode Recommended: IPRoyal, BrightData rotating residential proxy. Paper mode works 100% without proxy. --- **Version:** 2.0.0 | **License:** MIT | **Author:** Georges Andronescu (Wesley Armando)


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: suspicious (CRITICAL)