Skill: finskills/commodity-macro-signal (version 1.0.1)

--- name: Commodity Macro Signal version: 1.0.2 description: "Analyze energy, metals, and agricultural commodity markets alongside macro indicators to generate cross-asset macro signals." author: finskills metadata: openclaw: requires: env: - FINSKILLS_API_KEY primaryEnv: FINSKILLS_API_KEY homepage: https://github.com/finskills/commodity-macro-signal --- # Commodity Macro Signal Analyze global commodity markets to extract macro signals for inflation, growth, and supply chain dynamics using free-tier Finskills API data. Covers energy (crude oil, natural gas), precious metals (gold, silver), industrial metals (copper), agricultural products, and FRED/IMF commodity indices — then synthesizes investment implications across asset classes. --- ## Setup **API Key required** — [Register at https://finskills.net](https://finskills.net) to get your free key. Header: `X-[REDACTED_SECRET]` > **Get your API key**: Register at **https://finskills.net** — free tier available, Pro plan unlocks real-time quotes, history, and financials. --- ## When to Activate This Skill Activate when the user: - Asks about oil, gold, copper, natural gas, silver, or agricultural commodity prices - Wants to understand what rising/falling commodity prices mean for markets - Asks "is this inflationary or deflationary?" - Wants a commodity-driven macro analysis - Asks about Dr. Copper, gold/silver ratio, oil equity ratio - Wants to know how commodities affect specific sectors (energy, materials, airlines, etc.) --- ## Data Retrieval — Finskills API Calls ### 1. All Commodity Spot Prices (Snapshot) ``` GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/prices ``` Extract the full commodity price dashboard: - Energy: `crude_oil_wti`, `crude_oil_brent`, `natural_gas`, `heating_oil`, `gasoline` - Metals: `gold`, `silver`, `platinum`, `copper`, `aluminum`, `iron_ore` - Agricultural: `corn`, `wheat`, `soybeans`, `coffee`, `cotton`, `sugar` ### 2. Individual Commodity History (for trend analysis) For key commodities, fetch 1-year daily history: ``` GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/history/{symbol} ``` Target symbols: `WTI` (crude oil), `gold`, `copper`, `natgas`, `wheat` Extract: date, price, change ### 3. FRED Commodity Data Series ``` GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/fred ``` Lists all available FRED commodity series. ``` GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/fred/{seriesId} ``` Key series to pull: - `DCOILWTICO`: WTI Crude Oil Daily Price - `GOLDAMGBD228NLBM`: Gold Price Daily - `PCOPPUSDM`: Copper Price Monthly - `TERMCBPER24NS`: Not applicable — use commodity endpoint instead ### 4. IMF Commodity Index ``` GET https://finskills.net/v1/free/commodity/imf ``` Extract: IMF primary commodity price index (energy, metals, food sub-indices) Use for: broad commodity cycle positioning (secular bull/bear) --- ## Analysis Workflow ### Step 1 — Commodity Price Dashboard Create a snapshot of all key commodities with direction signals: For each commodity, classify: - **Near-term trend** (1-month): using price change % from history - **Medium-term trend** (3-month): using price change % from history - **Annual trend** (1-year): YTD change ``` Direction = {RALLYING ↑ / FALLING ↓ / FLAT ~} based on 1M change ``` ### Step 2 — Key Macro Signal Derivation **Oil Price Signal (Economic Activity + Inflation):** - WTI > $90/bbl: Demand or supply-driven? Check supply context - Demand-driven high prices (global growth): Bullish for equities (especially energy, materials) - Supply-constriction high prices (OPEC cut): Stagflationary (bad for most assets) - WTI $60–$90: Normal regime, not a major headwind - WTI < $60: Disinflation signal; positive for airlines, transport, consumer discretionary **Gold Signal (Safe Haven + Real Rate Indicator):** Gold is inversely correlated with real interest rates (nominal rate - inflation expectations): - Gold rising while rates rising: Unusual strength → fear of financial crisis or dollar weakness - Gold rising while rates stable/falling: Real rates falling → inflationary signal - Gold falling while rates rising: Normal correlation → risk-on, growth regime **Gold/Silver Ratio:** ``` Gold_Silver_Ratio = gold_price / silver_price ``` - Ratio > 80: Economic uncertainty, risk-off (gold outperforms industrial silver) - Ratio < 60: Industrial demand strong, economic expansion (silver outperforms) **Copper Signal ("Dr. Copper" — Economic Barometer):** - Copper rising: Global manufacturing expansion, China construction activity strong - Copper falling: Global slowdown signal, watch emerging markets - Copper/Gold Ratio: Rising ratio → economic growth; Falling → risk-off ``` Copper_Gold_Ratio = copper_price (in cents/lb) / gold_price (in $/oz) ``` When ratio rises: Yields typically follow — confirms growth regime When ratio falls: Deflationary forces at work **Natural Gas Signal (Seasonal + Domestic):** - Winter: High nat gas = positive for utilities, LNG exporters, coal substitution - Summer: High nat gas = heat wave demand; positive for utilities **Agricultural Commodities Signal (Food Inflation):** - Wheat > $7/bushel: Food inflation pressure, CPI food component rising - Corn, Soy: Input cost for livestock, ethanol, food processing ### Step 3 — Commodity Cycle Classification Classify the current phase of the commodity super-cycle: | Phase | Characteristics | Signal | |-------|----------------|--------| | **Early Bull** | Energy/metals rising from cyclical lows; USD weakening | Buy commodities, energy stocks, miners | | **Middle Bull** | Broad commodity rally; tight supply; high margins | Overweight materials, energy; watch inflation | | **Late Bull** | Speculative excess; soft commodities surging | Central bank tightening; equities under pressure | | **Early Bear** | Commodities peak; demand destruction; rate hike impact | Short energy, reduce materials | | **Middle Bear** | Broad selloff; energy struggling; metals weak | Defensive positioning | | **Late Bear** | Commodity lows; capex cuts building future supply deficit | Accumulate energy/materials for next cycle | Assign to current phase based on: direction of multiple commodity prices + interest rate environment. ### Step 4 — Asset Class Implications Matrix Based on commodity signals, generate implications for asset classes: | Commodity Signal | Asset Class Implication | |----------------|------------------------| | Oil ↑ (demand) | Energy stocks ↑; Airlines ↓; Discretionary ↓; Oil-exporting EM ↑ | | Oil ↑ (supply cut) | All equities ↓; Gold ↑; TIPS ↑; Consumer sentiment ↓ | | Oil ↓ | Airlines ↑; Consumer discretionary ↑; Energy stocks ↓; EM exporters ↓ | | Gold ↑, Rates ↓ | Risk-off; Bonds ↑; USD ↓; Miners ↑ | | Gold ↓, Rates ↑ | Risk-on; Equities ↑; Value > Growth | | Copper ↑ | Industrials ↑; Emerging markets ↑; Materials ↑ | | Copper ↓ | Global slowdown; Defensive sectors ↑ | | Broad Agri ↑ | CPI food component ↑; Consumer staples mixed; EM stress | | Broad Commodity Rally | TIPS ↑; Energy ↑; Materials ↑; Value ↑ over Growth | | Broad Commodity Decline | Equities mixed; Discretionary ↑; Disinflation tailwind | ### Step 5 — Sector-Level Impact Map to specific equity sectors: - **Energy (XLE)**: Directly correlated with WTI crude - **Materials (XLB)**: Copper, aluminum, iron ore, potash - **Industrials (XLI)**: Broad commodity demand signal - **Consumer Staples (XLP)**: Wheat, corn, sugar as input costs - **Consumer Discretionary (XLY)**: Gasoline price as consumer purchasing power headwind - **Utilities (XLU)**: Natural gas as fuel input cost - **Airlines**: Jet fuel (kerosene, highly correlated to crude) as major cost - **Miners/Gold stocks (GDX)**: Gold and silver price leverage --- ## Output Format ``` ╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗ ║ COMMODITY MACRO SIGNAL REPORT — {DATE} ║ ╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝ 🛢️ ENERGY WTI Crude Oil: ${price}/bbl {+/-}% 1M {+/-}% 3M {+/-}% YTD Brent Crude: ${price}/bbl {+/-}% 1M Natural Gas: ${price}/MMBtu {+/-}% 1M Gasoline: ${price}/gal {+/-}% 1M Oil Signal: → {DEMAND-DRIVEN SURGE / SUPPLY CUT SURGE / NORMAL RANGE / DEFLATIONARY DROP} 🥇 PRECIOUS METALS Gold: ${price}/oz {+/-}% 1M {+/-}% 3M {+/-}% YTD Silver: ${price}/oz {+/-}% 1M Platinum: ${price}/oz {+/-}% 1M Gold/Silver Ratio: {ratio:.1f} → {RISK-OFF / NORMAL / RISK-ON} Gold Signal: → {SAFE HAVEN DEMAND / REAL RATES FALLING / NORMAL} ⚙️ INDUSTRIAL METALS ("Dr. Copper") Copper: ${price}¢/lb {+/-}% 1M {+/-}% 3M Aluminum: ${price}/ton {+/-}% 1M Iron Ore: ${price}/ton {+/-}% 1M Copper/Gold Ratio: {ratio:.4f} → {Growth signal rising / Declining = risk-off} Industrial Signal: → {EXPANSION / SLOWING / CONTRACTION} 🌾 AGRICULTURAL Corn: ${price}/bu {+/-}% 1M Wheat: ${price}/bu {+/-}% 1M Soybeans:${price}/bu {+/-}% 1M Coffee: ${price}¢/lb {+/-}% 1M Agri Signal: → {FOOD INFLATION PRESSURE / STABLE / DEFLATIONARY} 📊 IMF COMMODITY INDICES IMF All Commodities: {index} {+/-}% 3M IMF Energy Sub-Index: {index} {+/-}% 3M IMF Metals Index: {index} {+/-}% 3M IMF Food Index: {index} {+/-}% 3M Cycle Phase: → {EARLY BULL / MIDDLE BULL / LATE BULL / EARLY BEAR / LATE BEAR} 💡 MACRO SYNTHESIS Inflationary pressure: {HIGH / MODERATE / LOW} Growth signal: {EXPANSION / MIXED / CONTRACTION} USD implication: {BEARISH on USD / NEUTRAL / BULLISH on USD} 📈 ASSET CLASS IMPLICATIONS OVERWEIGHT: {asset classes and sectors benefiting from current commodity signals} UNDERWEIGHT: {asset classes hurt by current commodity signals} Sector Playbook: Energy (XLE): {↑ Strong tailwind / → Neutral / ↓ Headwind} Materials (XLB): {↑ / → / ↓} Industrials (XLI): {↑ / → / ↓} Airlines: {↑ / → / ↓} Consumer: {↑ / → / ↓} Gold Miners (GDX): {↑ / → / ↓} 🔍 KEY SIGNAL TO WATCH {The one commodity ratio or indicator that best captures current macro regime transition, and what a move above/below X level would imply for portfolio positioning.} ``` --- ## Limitations - Commodity spot prices may lag physical markets by 1 business day. - Supply-driven vs. demand-driven price changes require judgment — always consider news context. - Agricultural commodity prices are highly seasonal and weather-dependent. - The copper/gold ratio as a growth signal works best over multi-month periods, not day-to-day.


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: clean | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: clean (LOW)