Skill: samledger67-dotcom/startup-financial-model (version 1.0.2)

--- name: startup-financial-model description: > Build investor-ready 3-statement financial models for startups: P&L, Balance Sheet, Cash Flow Statement. Revenue forecasting with growth assumptions, burn rate analysis, runway calculator, scenario modeling (base/bull/bear), and cohort-based SaaS/subscription metrics. Outputs structured data for Excel/Google Sheets export. Use when a founder, CFO, or analyst needs a from-scratch financial model, wants to project runway, stress-test scenarios, or prepare for an investor diligence request. NOT for: public-company financial analysis (use DCF/comps), tax preparation, bookkeeping or reconciliation, or real-time data pulls from accounting software (use qbo-automation for that). version: 1.0.0 author: PrecisionLedger tags: - finance - startups - modeling - forecasting - investors --- # Startup Financial Model Skill Build complete 3-statement financial models for early-stage and growth-stage startups. This skill guides Sam Ledger through constructing investor-ready models, running scenario analysis, calculating burn/runway, and producing structured output ready for Excel or Google Sheets. --- ## When to Use This Skill **Trigger phrases:** - "Build a financial model for…" - "How much runway do we have?" - "Create a 3-statement model" - "What's our burn rate?" - "Model out our revenue forecast" - "Investor asks for a 3-year model" - "Show me base/bull/bear scenarios" **NOT for:** - Public company valuation (DCF, comps) — different methodology - Tax filing or tax planning — use compliance workflows - Historical bookkeeping — use QBO/accounting integrations - Real-time actuals syncing — use `qbo-automation` skill - Cap table modeling — use `cap-table-manager` skill --- ## Core Model Components ### 1. Revenue Model Start by identifying the **revenue driver type**: | Business Type | Primary Driver | Key Metric | |---|---|---| | SaaS / Subscription | MRR/ARR growth | Churn rate, expansion MRR | | Marketplace | GMV × take rate | Transaction volume | | Services / Agency | Headcount × utilization | Billable hours | | E-commerce | Orders × AOV | Repeat purchase rate | | Usage-based | Units × price | Volume growth curve | **Revenue forecasting inputs to collect:** ``` - Current MRR/revenue (starting point) - Monthly or annual growth rate assumption - Churn rate (monthly, for subscription) - New customer acquisition volume (monthly) - ARPU / ACV (average revenue per user/contract value) - Expansion/upsell rate (if applicable) - Seasonality adjustments (if applicable) ``` **SaaS Revenue Formula (monthly):** ``` MRR(t) = MRR(t-1) + New MRR (new customers × ARPU) + Expansion MRR - Churned MRR (MRR(t-1) × churn rate) ``` ### 2. Expense Model (P&L) **Expense categories to model:** **COGS (Cost of Goods Sold):** - Hosting/infrastructure (% of revenue or fixed) - Payment processing fees (% of revenue) - Customer support costs (headcount-driven) **Operating Expenses:** ``` Sales & Marketing: - Paid acquisition (CAC budget) - Sales team salaries + commission - Marketing tools / events Research & Development: - Engineering salaries (FTE × loaded cost) - Contractor/freelance dev costs - Tools and licenses General & Administrative: - Executive salaries - Legal, accounting, compliance - Office / remote infrastructure - Insurance ``` **Headcount Planning Template:** ``` Role | Start Date | Monthly Salary | Benefits % | Total Loaded Cost -----|------------|----------------|------------|------------------ CTO | Jan 2026 | $15,000 | 25% | $18,750 Eng | Mar 2026 | $10,000 | 25% | $12,500 ... ``` ### 3. P&L Statement ``` Revenue - COGS = Gross Profit Gross Margin % - S&M Expense - R&D Expense - G&A Expense = EBITDA EBITDA Margin % - Depreciation & Amortization = EBIT - Interest Expense = EBT (Earnings Before Tax) - Income Tax = Net Income ``` ### 4. Cash Flow Statement **Three sections:** ``` Operating Activities: Net Income + D&A (non-cash add-back) ± Changes in Working Capital: - Accounts Receivable (increase = use of cash) - Accounts Payable (increase = source of cash) - Deferred Revenue (SaaS advance payments = source) - Prepaid Expenses Investing Activities: - CapEx (equipment, IP capitalization) - Security deposits Financing Activities: + Capital raises (equity funding rounds) + Debt proceeds - Debt repayments - Dividends (rare for startups) = Net Change in Cash + Beginning Cash Balance = Ending Cash Balance ``` ### 5. Balance Sheet ``` ASSETS Current Assets: Cash & Cash Equivalents ← from Cash Flow ending balance Accounts Receivable Prepaid Expenses Non-Current Assets: PP&E (net of depreciation) Intangibles / Capitalized Software LIABILITIES Current Liabilities: Accounts Payable Deferred Revenue Accrued Expenses Non-Current Liabilities: Long-term Debt / Convertible Notes EQUITY Paid-in Capital (cumulative fundraising) Retained Earnings (cumulative Net Income) Total Equity CHECK: Assets = Liabilities + Equity ← must balance ``` --- ## Burn Rate & Runway Calculator ### Gross Burn Rate ``` Gross Burn = Total Monthly Cash Outflows = COGS + OpEx (cash basis, pre-revenue) ``` ### Net Burn Rate ``` Net Burn = Gross Burn - Revenue Collected = Monthly cash out - monthly cash in ``` ### Runway ``` Runway (months) = Current Cash Balance ÷ Net Burn Rate Example: Cash: $1,200,000 Net Burn: $80,000/month Runway: 15 months ``` ### Runway with Milestones ``` Milestone-adjusted runway = months until Series A, profitability, or breakeven Break-even month = month where Net Burn = $0 (revenue ≥ expenses) ``` --- ## Scenario Modeling Build three scenarios with different assumptions: | Assumption | Bear (Pessimistic) | Base (Expected) | Bull (Optimistic) | |---|---|---|---| | MoM Revenue Growth | 5% | 10% | 18% | | Monthly Churn | 5% | 2.5% | 1% | | CAC | $800 | $500 | $300 | | Hiring pace | 50% of plan | 100% of plan | 120% of plan | | Fundraise timing | +3 months delay | On schedule | -2 months early | **Output for each scenario:** - Runway (months from today) - Break-even month - Cash at end of model period - Revenue at 12/24/36 months - Key risk: what causes bear scenario? --- ## SaaS-Specific Metrics When modeling SaaS businesses, include these unit economics: ``` LTV (Lifetime Value): LTV = ARPU / Monthly Churn Rate Example: $500 ARPU ÷ 2% churn = $25,000 LTV CAC (Customer Acquisition Cost): CAC = Total S&M Spend / New Customers Acquired Example: $50,000 S&M ÷ 100 new customers = $500 CAC LTV:CAC Ratio: Healthy = 3:1 minimum, 5:1+ strong $25,000 LTV ÷ $500 CAC = 50:1 (excellent) CAC Payback Period: Payback = CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin %) Example: $500 ÷ ($500 × 70%) = 1.4 months Net Revenue Retention (NRR): NRR = (Beginning MRR + Expansion - Contraction - Churn) / Beginning MRR Target: >100% = expansion offsets churn ``` --- ## Output Format ### Structured JSON for Export When generating model output, produce structured data in this format: ```json { "model_meta": { "company": "Acme SaaS Inc.", "model_date": "2026-03-15", "currency": "USD", "period": "monthly", "horizon_months": 36 }, "assumptions": { "starting_mrr": 50000, "mom_growth_rate": 0.10, "monthly_churn_rate": 0.025, "gross_margin_pct": 0.70, "starting_cash": 1200000, "monthly_burn_base": 95000 }, "scenarios": { "base": { "runway_months": 15, "breakeven_month": 18, "arr_12m": 960000, "arr_24m": 2400000, "cash_end_of_model": 340000 }, "bear": { ... }, "bull": { ... } }, "monthly_projections": [ { "month": 1, "mrr": 55000, "gross_profit": 38500, "total_opex": 90000, "ebitda": -51500, "net_burn": 51500, "cash_balance": 1148500 }, ... ] } ``` ### Google Sheets Export Instructions When producing a Sheets-ready model: 1. Output as CSV blocks per tab: `Revenue Model`, `P&L`, `Cash Flow`, `Balance Sheet`, `Scenarios` 2. Use formula notation where helpful: `=B2*(1+$B$1)` style references 3. Highlight assumption cells (color note: yellow = input, blue = formula) 4. Include a **Dashboard tab** with: Runway, MRR, Burn Rate, Gross Margin % as headline KPIs --- ## Step-by-Step Workflow When a user asks to build a financial model: ### Step 1: Intake Collect these inputs (ask if not provided): ``` □ Company name and stage (pre-seed, seed, Series A?) □ Business model (SaaS, marketplace, services, etc.) □ Current MRR / ARR or monthly revenue □ Current cash balance □ Monthly headcount and loaded cost estimate □ Key growth assumption (growth rate, sales targets) □ Model horizon (12, 24, or 36 months?) □ Purpose (internal planning, investor diligence, board deck?) ``` ### Step 2: Build Revenue Forecast - Apply driver-based model for the business type - Calculate monthly revenue for each period - Show MRR bridge (new / expansion / churn) ### Step 3: Build Expense Model - Headcount plan with hire dates - COGS as % of revenue or fixed - OpEx categories per above ### Step 4: Assemble 3 Statements - P&L from revenue and expenses - Cash flow from P&L + working capital changes - Balance sheet from cumulative cash flow + equity raises ### Step 5: Burn & Runway - Calculate net burn per month - Project runway from current cash - Identify break-even month ### Step 6: Scenario Analysis - Run base, bear, bull with varied assumptions - Summarize: how bad does it have to get before we run out of cash? ### Step 7: Output - Structured JSON or CSV for export - Narrative summary: key risks, milestones, funding gaps - Investor-ready summary table --- ## Example Usage **User:** "We have $800k in the bank, burning $65k/month net, growing MRR at 8% per month from $30k base. How long is our runway and when do we break even?" **Sam's response:** ``` Runway Analysis: Starting MRR: $30,000 | Net Burn: $65,000/month | Cash: $800,000 Month-by-month (base case, 8% MoM growth): Month 1: MRR $32,400 | Burn est. $62,500 | Cash $737,500 Month 6: MRR $47,600 | Burn est. $47,000 | Cash $421,000 ← near breakeven Month 7: MRR $51,400 | Burn est. $44,000 | Cash $377,000 → Cash flow positive Runway: ~13 months before cash hits $0 (bear) / 18+ months if growth holds (base) Break-even: Month 6-7 at ~$50k MRR (assuming costs stay relatively flat) Key risks: - Growth slows to 4%: runway drops to 9 months - Unexpected hiring: 2 engineers = -$25k/month → runway -4 months Recommendation: Fundraise at month 8-9 (Series A prep) or hit $60k MRR as proof point first. ``` --- ## Integration Points - **`crypto-tax-agent`** — for token/equity-based compensation modeling - **`cap-table-manager`** — for equity dilution modeling alongside funding scenarios - **`kpi-alert-system`** — set alerts when actual vs. model variance exceeds threshold - **`qbo-automation`** — pull actuals from QuickBooks to compare against model - **`report-generator`** — format model output into investor-ready PDF/deck --- ## Reference: Key Formulas Cheat Sheet ``` Gross Margin % = (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue × 100 Net Burn = Cash Out - Cash In (monthly) Runway (months) = Cash Balance / Net Burn MoM Growth = (Current MRR - Prior MRR) / Prior MRR × 100 ARR = MRR × 12 LTV = ARPU / Churn Rate CAC Payback = CAC / (ARPU × Gross Margin %) Rule of 40 = Revenue Growth % + EBITDA Margin % (target ≥ 40 for SaaS) Magic Number = Net New ARR / Prior Quarter S&M Spend (target > 0.75) ```


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