Skill: quochungto/bookforge-startup-traction-strategy-by-phase (version 1.0.0)

--- name: startup-traction-strategy-by-phase description: "Guide startup growth strategy by diagnosing which phase the startup is in (Phase I: making something people want, Phase II: marketing something people want, Phase III: scaling) and selecting phase-appropriate traction channels. Use whenever a startup founder, growth marketer, or product leader is deciding how to split time between product and traction, asking whether they have product-market fit, choosing which channels fit their current stage, dealing with rising CAC or saturating channels, wondering if they should pivot, applying the 50% Rule, or escaping the Product Trap ('if we build it they will come'). Activates on phrases like 'product-market fit', 'phase I', 'phase II', 'scaling', 'growth strategy', 'should we pivot', '50% rule', 'product trap', 'traction vs product', 'which channels for our stage', 'moving the needle'." version: 1.0.0 homepage: https://github.com/bookforge-ai/bookforge-skills/tree/main/books/traction/skills/startup-traction-strategy-by-phase metadata: {"openclaw":{"emoji":"📚","homepage":"https://github.com/bookforge-ai/bookforge-skills"}} status: draft source-books: - id: traction title: "Traction: A Startup Guide to Getting Customers" authors: ["Gabriel Weinberg", "Justin Mares"] chapters: [4] domain: startup-growth tags: [startup-growth, growth-strategy, startup-phases, product-market-fit, marketing-strategy] depends-on: [] execution: tier: 1 mode: hybrid inputs: - type: document description: "Startup state — metrics, team size, product maturity, current traction activities" tools-required: [Read, Write] tools-optional: [AskUserQuestion] mcps-required: [] environment: "Plain-text working directory for phase diagnosis and channel strategy documents" discovery: goal: "Diagnose the startup's current phase and produce a phase-appropriate traction strategy" tasks: - "Diagnose current phase (I/II/III) from observable signals" - "Audit current time allocation against the 50% Rule" - "Map phase-appropriate channels and filter out mismatched ones" - "Apply the moving-the-needle filter to proposed activities" - "Detect the Product Trap and phase-channel mismatch anti-patterns" audience: roles: [startup-founder, growth-marketer, head-of-marketing] experience: beginner-to-intermediate when_to_use: triggers: - "User is unsure which phase their startup is in" - "User's current channel is producing diminishing returns" - "User asks whether to pivot" - "User is spending all time on product and wondering about growth" prerequisites: [] not_for: - "User has not yet built a product" - "User just wants to pick a channel (use bullseye-channel-selection)" environment: codebase_required: false codebase_helpful: false works_offline: true quality: scores: with_skill: null baseline: null delta: null tested_at: null eval_count: 0 assertion_count: 12 iterations_needed: 0 --- # Startup Traction Strategy by Phase ## When to Use The startup is somewhere on the growth curve and needs a phase-appropriate traction strategy. Use this skill when: - The founder can't tell if they have product-market fit yet - Growth has plateaued and the channels that worked before aren't working now - The founder is spending 90%+ of their time on product - A pivot is being considered - The user asks "what should we focus on for growth right now?" ## Context & Input Gathering ### Required Context (must have — ask if missing) - **Current metrics:** users, revenue, growth rate (even rough) → Check prompt for: numeric counts, percentages, trends → If missing, ask: "What are your current metrics? Rough numbers are fine — users, paying customers, monthly growth." - **Time allocation:** how the founder/team is currently splitting effort → Check prompt for: "spending X% on", "we focus on", "most of our time" → If missing, ask: "Roughly how is your week split between product work and getting customers?" - **Current traction activities:** what's actively being tried → Check prompt for: "we do X for growth", channel names → If missing, ask: "What are you doing right now to get new customers?" ### Observable Context - **Product maturity:** MVP, v1, v2+ - **Team size and composition** - **How customers currently describe the product** (satisfaction signals) ### Default Assumptions - If user count is under 1,000 and no clear growth rate exists → assume Phase I - If rough product-market fit signals exist (paying customers, word-of-mouth, retention) → Phase II - If established business model with consistent growth → Phase III ### Sufficiency Threshold ``` SUFFICIENT: metrics + time allocation + current activities known PROCEED WITH DEFAULTS: metrics known; assume time is 90/10 product/traction (the common failure mode) MUST ASK: metrics are completely unknown (can't diagnose phase) ``` ## Process Use TodoWrite: - [ ] Step 1: Diagnose phase - [ ] Step 2: Audit time allocation against 50% Rule - [ ] Step 3: Map phase-appropriate channels - [ ] Step 4: Apply the moving-the-needle filter - [ ] Step 5: Produce phase strategy document ### Step 1: Diagnose Phase (I / II / III) **ACTION:** Classify the startup into one of three phases based on observable signals: - **Phase I — Making something people want.** No product-market fit yet. Signals: low user count, high churn, constant product revision, customers don't obviously stick. The core job is building a product worth marketing. - **Phase II — Marketing something people want.** Product-market fit established. Signals: customers stick, grow by word of mouth, revenue or engagement climbs. The core job is building a sustainable customer-acquisition engine. - **Phase III — Scaling the business.** Business model established, market position significant. Signals: consistent growth rate, unit economics work, the question is how to dominate the market. The core job is scaling proven channels. Write the diagnosis with one paragraph of evidence to `phase-diagnosis.md`. **WHY:** Every downstream decision depends on phase. A Phase I startup doing Phase III tactics (mass advertising, PR campaigns, full sales teams) wastes money on channels that can't compound without a sticky product. A Phase III startup doing Phase I tactics (personal outreach, hand-holding each customer) underuses scale. Phase mismatch is the most common strategy error. **IF** signals are mixed between Phase I and II → default to the earlier phase. The cost of over-investing in traction before fit is higher than the cost of under-investing briefly after fit. ### Step 2: Audit Time Allocation Against the 50% Rule **ACTION:** Calculate how the founder/team is actually splitting time between product work and traction work. Compare to the 50% Rule: **50% of time on product, 50% on traction — at all times, in parallel, regardless of phase.** If the split is 90/10 product/traction (the common default), name it explicitly. Quote the Product Trap warning: the #1 reason investors pass on otherwise-good founders is focus on product to the exclusion of everything else. **WHY:** Most founders wildly over-invest in product. Marc Andreessen: "Almost every failed startup has a product. What failed startups don't have are enough customers." The Product Trap is the belief that "if we build it, they will come." Without explicit time-budget accountability, traction work gets crowded out by product work that always feels more urgent. The 50% Rule is a forcing function, not a guideline. **IF** the user resists 50/50 because "the product isn't ready" → that's exactly when you need traction experiments, because channel feedback shapes the product. **IF** the user is 50/50 already → excellent, skip to Step 3. ### Step 3: Map Phase-Appropriate Channels **ACTION:** Based on the diagnosed phase, list which channels typically work and which typically don't. Use the mapping in [references/phase-channel-fit.md](references/phase-channel-fit.md). Flag any current channel that's mismatched with the phase. Common mismatches: - Phase I startup running SEM ads without product-market fit → burning budget on churning users - Phase II startup still relying only on personal outreach → hitting volume ceiling - Phase III startup ignoring PR → missing biggest growth lever **WHY:** Channels have phase fit. "Some traction channels will move the needle early on but fail to work later. Others are hard to get working in Phase I but are major sources of traction in the later phases." Running a Phase I playbook in Phase II means growth stalls. Running a Phase III playbook in Phase I means spending on customers you can't retain. Matching phase to channel is the core of the book's strategy advice. ### Step 4: Apply the Moving-the-Needle Filter **ACTION:** For each proposed or current traction activity, ask: "Can this plausibly deliver enough new customers to meaningfully advance our traction goal at our current scale?" Do a back-of-envelope calculation: (target new customers) ÷ (realistic conversion rate, 1-5%) = audience you need to reach. Compare that to the channel's realistic reach. If the math doesn't work, the activity is off the needle. Phase I needle ≠ Phase III needle: - In Phase I, a tweet from a respected person or a speech to 300 people *can* move the needle. - In Phase III, if you have 10,000 visitors/day, a blog post that sends 200 visitors is noise. **WHY:** Founders waste time on activities that feel productive but can't meaningfully affect growth. The moving-the-needle filter is a math check: does the channel even have the volume to matter? Running a Facebook ad with $100 budget in Phase III is not a test — it's rounding error. **IF** an activity can't pass the needle filter → cut it. Put the time back into the 50% traction budget. ### Step 5: Produce the Phase Strategy Document **ACTION:** Write `phase-strategy.md` containing: 1. **Phase diagnosis** with evidence 2. **Current time allocation** vs 50% Rule (and the correction needed) 3. **Phase-appropriate channels** — which to pursue, which to cut 4. **Moving-the-needle audit** — activities cut, activities kept 5. **Next 4 weeks of traction experiments**, sized to the phase **WHY:** A written strategy is a forcing function for accountability. "We're Phase I and the 50% Rule says we need more unscalable outreach" is easier to hold the team to than a verbal agreement. The document also makes phase transitions legible — in 3 months, re-read it and ask "what phase are we in now?" ## Inputs - Startup metrics (users, revenue, growth rate) - Current time allocation (product vs traction) - Current traction activities - Traction goal (if user has one) ## Outputs Three markdown files: 1. **`phase-diagnosis.md`** — Phase (I/II/III) with evidence 2. **`phase-strategy.md`** — Complete strategy with time allocation correction and channel map 3. **`weekly-traction-plan.md`** — Next 4 weeks of phase-appropriate experiments ## Key Principles - **Phase determines everything.** A channel that's a hit in Phase II can be a disaster in Phase I. WHY: The same tactic at the wrong time is a waste. Speed and volume needs change dramatically across phases — Phase I rewards unscalable tactics, Phase III punishes them. - **50/50 is non-negotiable.** Not 80/20 in favor of product "because we're early". Not 20/80 "because we need customers fast". Always 50/50. WHY: Product and traction co-evolve. Traction experiments reveal what customers actually want. Product changes shape what traction channels work. Decoupling them is how startups die with "a great product nobody wanted." - **The Product Trap has a specific detection signal.** If the founder says "the product isn't ready for marketing yet", that's the trap. WHY: The product is never "ready." Marc Andreessen: "The number one reason we pass on entrepreneurs is focusing on product to the exclusion of everything else." Ready for marketing means ready for feedback, not ready for perfection. - **Re-diagnose phase quarterly.** Phases aren't permanent. What was Phase I six months ago might be Phase II now. WHY: Phase transitions are easy to miss from the inside. The channels that served you in Phase I will saturate as you enter Phase II. If you don't re-diagnose, you'll keep running Phase I tactics and watch growth flatten. - **Unscalable tactics are a Phase I *strategy*, not a failure mode.** Paul Graham's "do things that don't scale" is phase-specific advice. In Phase I, it's correct. In Phase III, it's a trap. WHY: The same advice applied in the wrong phase produces opposite outcomes. Don't let "unscalable = bad" reflexes push you to premature scaling in Phase I. ## Examples **Scenario: "We're 3 months in, 200 users, growth has stalled"** Trigger: "Built a note-taking app for lawyers. 200 users in 3 months, mostly from Twitter. Growth has stalled the last 4 weeks. Only I'm doing marketing; 2 engineers on product." Process: (1) Diagnose Phase I — low user count, no repeat customer signals, team still iterating product. (2) Time audit: founder estimates 70% product, 30% traction → flag the gap. Apply 50% Rule → founder needs to reclaim 20% of product time for traction. (3) Phase-appropriate channels: unscalable tactics work best here — targeting blogs (legal industry blogs), speaking at small legal conferences, direct outreach to named lawyers. Cut: any paid ads (wrong phase), no SEO (too slow for Phase I). (4) Moving-the-needle filter: founder was about to run $500 Facebook ads — kill that. $500 goes to sponsoring a legal-industry newsletter instead. (5) Produce 4-week plan: 10 cold emails/week to named lawyers, 1 guest post on a legal blog, outreach to 2 legal podcast hosts. Output: Clear Phase I diagnosis, Product Trap flagged (70/30 instead of 50/50), and a concrete unscalable-first plan. **Scenario: "Great growth for 18 months, now slowing"** Trigger: "B2B SaaS, $200k MRR, 30% YoY growth. Content marketing drove most of our growth. Last 3 months growth has flattened to 5%. What's happening?" Process: (1) Diagnose: likely Phase II → Phase III transition. Product-market fit clearly there. Content marketing is saturating (the Law of Shitty Click-Throughs). (2) Time audit: 50/50 seems maintained — that's good. (3) Phase-appropriate channels: Phase III should leverage channels with bigger volume ceilings. Consider PR (first big feature), paid ads at scale, BD with integration partners. (4) Moving-the-needle filter: a new blog post that sends 500 visitors no longer moves the needle at this scale. (5) Produce plan: kick off PR push (3 pitches to industry media), add SEM for bottom-funnel keywords, negotiate 2 integration partnerships. Output: Phase II→III transition identified; next-phase channels selected; content remains but isn't the growth engine anymore. **Scenario: The classic Product Trap** Trigger: "We've been building for 8 months, launching soon, want to plan a big marketing push for launch day." Process: (1) Diagnose Phase I — not launched, no customers. (2) Time audit: user says "we haven't done marketing yet because the product isn't ready" → Product Trap diagnosis, quote Andreessen. (3) 50% Rule applied retroactively — what traction experiments should have been running for the last 8 months? At minimum: building an email list, talking to 20 prospective customers weekly, finding 10 blogs where the audience lives. (4) Moving-the-needle: a "big launch day push" without a list or audience is a guaranteed flop. (5) Strategy: delay launch by 4 weeks, spend those weeks building traction groundwork (email list, blog relationships, 20 customer conversations), so launch lands on an audience that already cares. Output: Product Trap named and corrected; launch plan now has traction preamble; founder understands the rule going forward. ## References - For the full phase-channel fit mapping, see [references/phase-channel-fit.md](references/phase-channel-fit.md) - For signs of each phase and transition signals, see [references/phase-signals.md](references/phase-signals.md) ## License This skill is licensed under [CC-BY-SA-4.0](https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0/). Source: [BookForge](https://github.com/bookforge-ai/bookforge-skills) — Traction: A Startup Guide to Getting Customers by Gabriel Weinberg and Justin Mares. ## Related BookForge Skills Install related skills from ClawhHub: - `clawhub install bookforge-bullseye-channel-selection` — Select specific channels within your phase strategy - `clawhub install bookforge-traction-channel-testing` — Run cheap tests on the channels you pick - `clawhub install bookforge-startup-critical-path-planning` — Set quantified traction goals by phase Or install the full book set from GitHub: [bookforge-skills](https://github.com/bookforge-ai/bookforge-skills)

path: references/phase-channel-fit.md
content: # Phase-Channel Fit Map

Which channels typically work in which phase. Use as a starting point — every startup is different, but this captures the patterns from the book.

## Phase I: Making Something People Want

**Goal:** Find product-market fit. Small, highly-engaged customer base.

**Channels that typically work:**
- **Targeting Blogs** — Mid-level niche blogs give Phase I startups an audience without needing scale.
- **Sales (direct/enterprise)** — Personal outreach is expected and necessary. First customers come from relationships.
- **Speaking Engagements** — Small talks in front of the right audience (200 engaged people > 20k unengaged).
- **Community Building** — Seed a community of early believers who become co-creators.
- **Engineering as Marketing** — Free tools that solve one specific problem for one specific audience.
- **Business Development (focused)** — One strategic partnership can define the early story.

**Channels that typically don't work:**
- **SEM at scale** — Paid ads to churning users burn budget.
- **Offline Ads** — No scale to justify cost.
- **Trade Shows (big ones)** — Cost doesn't match the small audience they can actually reach.

## Phase II: Marketing Something People Want

**Goal:** Build a scalable customer-acquisition engine. Growth from repeatable channels.

**Channels that typically work:**
- **Content Marketing** — Compounds over time. Phase II is where the returns kick in.
- **SEO** — If you invested in Phase I, ranks now.
- **SEM** — Unit economics work because product-market fit gives you retention.
- **Email Marketing** — Lifecycle emails convert the audience built in Phase I.
- **Viral Marketing** — Only valuable if baked into the product early.
- **Affiliate Programs** — Need product-market fit so affiliates are willing to promote.

**Channels that may stop working:**
- **Personal outreach** — Hit volume ceiling. Can't scale with 2 founders.
- **Small targeted blogs** — Audience exhausted.

## Phase III: Scaling the Business

**Goal:** Dominate the market. Compound across multiple channels.

**Channels that typically work:**
- **Public Relations (PR)** — Feature stories drive the biggest single-day spikes.
- **Content Marketing (at scale)** — Publication-level content operations.
- **SEM (big budgets)** — Unit economics clear, just buy more.
- **Offline Ads** — TV/radio make sense at this scale.
- **Existing Platforms** — Day-1 presence on new platforms.
- **Trade Shows (major)** — Mass meetups with qualified buyers.
- **Speaking Engagements (marquee)** — Keynotes, not small meetups.

**Channels that typically can't keep up:**
- **Any Phase I unscalable tactic** — The math stops working.

## Source

Chapter 3 ("Traction Thinking") of *Traction* by Gabriel Weinberg and Justin Mares.


path: references/phase-signals.md
content: # Phase Signals and Transition Markers

How to tell which phase a startup is actually in, and when it's transitioning.

## Phase I Signals

- User count < 1,000 (soft threshold, varies by product)
- Product still actively being rewritten based on each user conversation
- Customers churn quickly (retention weak)
- Founder can name every customer
- Growth is bumpy and unpredictable
- "Traction goal" would be something like "first 100 paying customers"

## Phase I → II Transition

- Customers start sticking without prompting
- Word-of-mouth begins ("my friend told me about this")
- Founder stops needing to hand-hold every new customer
- Product stops being rewritten at the fundamental level
- Growth rate becomes more predictable month-over-month

## Phase II Signals

- Product-market fit is clear in retention data
- A channel is producing consistent leads
- Team is hiring to scale marketing/sales functions
- Traction goal is something like "reach break-even revenue" or "100k users"
- The question is "how do we grow the channel" not "do we have a channel"

## Phase II → III Transition

- The channel that worked starts to saturate (rising CAC, diminishing volume)
- Growth rate from the primary channel flattens
- Team has resources to pursue multiple channels in parallel
- Market is now aware of the company

## Phase III Signals

- Established business model with known unit economics
- Multiple channels contributing meaningfully
- Growth rate is more about scaling than discovery
- Traction goal is about market share or dominance
- Strategic concerns (competition, category definition) matter more than tactical channel selection

## Common Misdiagnoses

- **Phase I looking like Phase II:** Founder thinks they have product-market fit because a few customers love the product. Check retention: do customers come back, or were those a one-time spike?
- **Phase II looking like Phase III:** Founder thinks they're scaling because revenue grew, but the channel is actually saturating — they just haven't noticed CAC climbing.
- **Phase III looking like Phase I:** Founder acts like a scrappy startup at $10M ARR, refusing to hire scaled marketing. The unscalable tactics that got them here aren't enough anymore.

## Source

Chapter 3 ("Traction Thinking") of *Traction* by Gabriel Weinberg and Justin Mares.


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