Skill: skybinjf/prediction-fair-value-template (version 1.0.0)

--- name: prediction-fair-value-template description: Scan Simmer markets for a configurable fair-value edge and buy YES or NO when the market price diverges enough from your thesis. metadata: author: "GitHub Copilot" version: "1.0.0" displayName: "Prediction Fair Value Template" difficulty: "intermediate" --- # Prediction Fair Value Template This skill scans active Simmer-indexed markets matching a search query, compares the current market price to your fair probability, and places a trade only when the gap is large enough to justify action. > **This is a template.** The default signal is a user-supplied fair probability plus a keyword market search. > Remix it with your own model outputs, news signals, research pipeline, or external data. > The skill handles discovery, sizing, context checks, redemption, and trade execution plumbing. ## What It Does On each run, the skill: 1. Calls Simmer briefing and auto-redeem. 2. Searches active markets using `MARKET_QUERY`. 3. Compares each market's current YES price to `FAIR_PROBABILITY`. 4. Buys YES when the market is under your fair value by at least `MIN_EDGE`. 5. Buys NO when the market is over your fair value by at least `MIN_EDGE`. 6. Sizes the position with `simmer_sdk.sizing.size_position()`. 7. Checks market context before trading to avoid severe flip-flops, weak edge, or excessive slippage. 8. Defaults to dry-run unless you explicitly enable live trading. ## Required Files This skill follows Simmer's manual build pattern for ClawHub: - `SKILL.md` - `clawhub.json` - `trade_skill.py` ## Environment Variables ### Credentials - `SIMMER_API_KEY` (required): Simmer API key from your dashboard. - `WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY` (optional): Only needed for external-wallet self-custody mode on supported venues. ### Strategy Config - `MARKET_QUERY`: Search term used to discover markets. Default: `bitcoin` - `FAIR_PROBABILITY`: Your estimated YES probability from `0` to `1`. Default: `0.60` - `MIN_EDGE`: Minimum pricing gap required to act. Default: `0.05` - `MAX_MARKETS`: Maximum number of markets to inspect per run. Default: `5` - `MAX_SLIPPAGE_PCT`: Skip trades if estimated slippage exceeds this threshold. Default: `0.15` - `TRADING_VENUE`: `sim` or `polymarket`. Default: `sim` - `SIMMER_ENABLE_LIVE`: Set to `true` to allow live order placement in automations. Default: `false` ## Safety Model - Dry-run is the default. - Every trade is tagged with `source` and `skill_slug`. - Every trade includes public `reasoning`. - Market context is checked before order placement. - Sizing is based on bankroll and edge, not a hard-coded fixed stake. ## Local Usage Dry-run: ```bash export SIMMER_API_KEY="sk_live_..." python trade_skill.py ``` Live mode: ```bash export SIMMER_API_KEY="sk_live_..." python trade_skill.py --live ``` Custom thesis: ```bash export MARKET_QUERY="fed rates" export FAIR_PROBABILITY="0.72" export MIN_EDGE="0.06" export TRADING_VENUE="sim" python trade_skill.py ``` ## Remix Ideas - Replace `FAIR_PROBABILITY` with a model output. - Use different fair probabilities by market category. - Add external signals from a news API, a research pipeline, or your own classifier. - Add stricter filters for time to resolution or liquidity. - Change sizing thresholds to fit your risk tolerance. ## Publishing From inside this skill folder: ```bash npx clawhub@latest publish . --slug prediction-fair-value-template --version 1.0.0 ``` Always publish with an explicit `--slug`.


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: suspicious (HIGH)