Skill: georges91560/polymarket-optimizer (version 1.0.0)

--- name: polymarket-optimizer description: Automatic parameter optimizer for polymarket-executor. Reads performance_metrics.json every 6 hours, analyzes win rates and P&L per strategy, adjusts learned_config.json to improve future performance. Also builds paper trade metrics and assesses live trading readiness. Part of the Wesley Agent Ecosystem — mirrors crypto-executor-optimizer pattern. version: 1.0.0 metadata: openclaw: emoji: "🧠" requires: bins: ["python3"] env: required: [] optional: - TELEGRAM_BOT_TOKEN - TELEGRAM_CHAT_ID - WORKSPACE network_behavior: makes_requests: true endpoints_allowed: - "https://api.telegram.org/bot*" requires_credentials: false uses_websocket: false security_level: "L1 - Read/Write local files only" author: "Georges Andronescu (Wesley Armando)" license: "MIT" homepage: "https://github.com/georges91560/polymarket-optimizer" repository: "https://github.com/georges91560/polymarket-optimizer" --- # Polymarket Optimizer — Adaptive Parameter Tuner ## 🧠 WHAT IT DOES Reads trading performance from `polymarket-executor`, analyzes what works, and adjusts parameters automatically. Runs every **6 hours** via OpenClaw cron job. Zero manual intervention required. **Input files (written by executor):** - `performance_metrics.json` — per-strategy win rates, P&L, trade counts - `paper_trades.json` — all simulated trade records - `portfolio.json` — capital, positions, daily P&L **Output files (read by executor at next startup):** - `learned_config.json` — updated thresholds, Kelly fraction, allocations - `optimizer_log.jsonl` — full history of every optimization run --- ## ⚡ QUICK START ```bash cd /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-optimizer python3 polymarket_optimizer.py ``` Expected output: ``` ============================================================ POLYMARKET OPTIMIZER v1.0.0 Run time: 2026-03-05 14:00:00 UTC ============================================================ [CONFIG] Loaded. Optimization #1 [PORTFOLIO] Health: HEALTHY [PORTFOLIO] Capital: $102.34 | Return: 2.3% [ANALYSIS] parity_arbitrage: EXCELLENT | WR=100.0% | Trades=8 | P&L=+0.523 [ANALYSIS] tail_end: GOOD | WR=75.0% | Trades=12 | P&L=+0.312 [OPTIMIZER] 2 adjustments made: 🚀 parity_arb excellent → min_profit 0.020 → 0.015 📈 parity_arb allocation 30% → 40% [READINESS] Resolved trades: 8/30 [READINESS] Win rate: 84.6% (need 55%+) [TELEGRAM] Report sent. ============================================================ OPTIMIZER COMPLETE ============================================================ ``` --- ## 🔧 WHAT IT ADJUSTS ### Strategy Thresholds | If strategy is... | Action | |---|---| | Poor (WR < 50%) | Raise threshold → trade only best opportunities | | Underperforming (WR 50–65%) | Slight threshold increase | | Average (WR 65–80%) | No change | | Good (WR 65–80%, positive P&L) | No change | | Excellent (WR > 80%) | Lower threshold → capture more volume | ### Capital Allocation | If strategy is... | Action | |---|---| | Poor | Reduce allocation (min 5–10%) | | Excellent | Increase allocation (max 50–70%) | Allocations always normalized to sum to 100%. ### Kelly Fraction | Portfolio health | Action | |---|---| | Critical (return < -10%) | Reduce Kelly → smaller positions | | Excellent (return > 10%, WR > 65%) | Increase Kelly → larger positions | ### Scan Frequency | Condition | Action | |---|---| | WR > 80% + 20+ trades | Scan faster (min 120s) | | Portfolio warning/critical | Scan slower (max 600s) | --- ## 📊 LIVE READINESS ASSESSMENT Every run evaluates whether paper trading results justify going live. **4 criteria must ALL pass:** | Criterion | Threshold | |---|---| | Resolved trades | ≥ 30 | | Win rate | ≥ 55% | | Total P&L | Positive | | Circuit breaker | Not active | Telegram report includes readiness status automatically. --- ## 📱 TELEGRAM REPORT ``` 🧠 POLYMARKET OPTIMIZER REPORT 🕐 2026-03-05 14:00 UTC 🔄 Optimization #4 Portfolio Health: 🟢 HEALTHY 💰 Capital: $108.45 📈 Return: 8.5% 🎯 Win Rate: 76.9% 📊 Total Trades: 20 Strategy Performance: 🚀 parity_arbitrage: 100.0% WR | 8 trades | P&L: +0.523 ✅ tail_end: 75.0% WR | 12 trades | P&L: +0.312 Adjustments Made: 🚀 parity_arb excellent → min_profit 0.020 → 0.015 📈 parity_arb allocation 30% → 40% ⚖️ Allocations renormalized Live Trading Readiness: 🔴 NOT YET READY ❌ Need 30+ resolved trades 📊 Progress: 20/30 trades 🎯 Win rate: 76.9% (need 55%+) ✅ ``` --- ## 📁 FILES | File | Location | Description | |---|---|---| | `polymarket_optimizer.py` | `skills/polymarket-optimizer/` | Main optimizer script | | `learned_config.json` | `WORKSPACE/` | Output — read by executor | | `optimizer_log.jsonl` | `WORKSPACE/` | Full optimization history | --- ## ⏰ CRON JOB Add to OpenClaw cron configuration: ``` # Run optimizer every 6 hours 0 */6 * * * docker exec openclaw-yyvg-openclaw-1 python3 /data/.openclaw/workspace/skills/polymarket-optimizer/polymarket_optimizer.py ``` --- **Version:** 1.0.0 | **License:** MIT | **Author:** Georges Andronescu (Wesley Armando)


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: suspicious (CRITICAL)