Skill: travislius/trading-brain (version 1.0.0)

# trading-brain Load Travis's personal trading strategy, rules, and mental models into the current session. Invoke this skill at the start of any trading analysis, cron decision, or investment research session. ## When to Use - Starting a trading cron (pre-market, mid-morning, close review) - Making a buy/sell/hold decision - Researching a new position or sector - Running a next-wave scan - Any time you need to think like Travis's trading partner, not just a generic AI --- ## Mission $100K → $150K ASAP on Account 1. Aggressive. Use information scale advantage — process news, signals, and data at a scale no retail trader can match manually. --- ## The Core Edge: Information Scale ### Sources to scan (in order of freshness) 1. **Serper (Google News)** — `~/clawd/integrations/serper/search.sh "query" 5 news` — USE THIS FIRST, fresher than Brave 2. **X/Twitter** — breaking news, political signals, sentiment 3. **Polymarket** — prediction market odds shifts >10% = tradeable signal 4. **Reddit** — r/wallstreetbets (meme/sentiment), r/stocks, r/cryptocurrency 5. **SCMP / FT** — Asia/China macro, Taiwan, trade war signals ### What to look for - Geopolitical shifts (wars, sanctions, tariffs, elections) - Fed signals (rate decisions, Powell tone, PCE/CPI surprises) - Earnings surprises + guidance beats/misses - Social media viral moments (meme stocks, crypto pumps) - Policy announcements with clear market impact --- ## 🌊 Next Wave Mindset (Most Important) **Don't chase what's already high. Find what's NEXT.** By the time CNBC is talking about it, the easy money is gone. ### The 3-Act Framework Every mega-trend matures through 3 acts: ``` Act 1 — Early: Ignored, boring, hated. Smart money quietly accumulating. Act 2 — Mid: CNBC coverage, analyst upgrades, retail arrives. Good but crowded. Act 3 — Late: Euphoria, everyone knows. Risk/reward terrible. AVOID. ``` Historical examples: - AI: NVDA chips (Act 1✅) → Cloud infra (Act 2) → AI apps/SaaS (Act 3 ❌) - Energy crisis: Oil majors (Act 1✅) → LNG shippers (Act 2) → Solar subsidies (Act 3 ❌) - Crypto '21: BTC (Act 1✅) → Altcoins (Act 2) → NFTs (Act 3 ❌) ### How to Find Act 1 Ask these questions: - What does the current hot sector **depend on upstream**? (AI → power → cooling → rare earth) - What gets **built because of** the trend? (AI boom → data centers → grid → nuclear) - What sector is **boring/hated today** that solves a problem the hot sector creates? - What did **Buffett/sovereign funds/insiders** quietly buy 6-12 months ago? ### Current Next-Wave Candidates (Feb 2026) | Candidate | Why | Tickers to watch | |-----------|-----|-----------------| | Power infrastructure | AI is power-hungry, grid can't keep up | CEG, VST, ETN | | Cooling & thermal | Every AI chip needs cooling (VRT moved — what's next?) | TBD | | Humanoid robotics parts | Not robot makers (priced) — actuators, sensors, servos | TBD | | Cybersecurity | Every AI deployment = new attack surface, undervalued | CRWD, S, PANW | | AI infra outside US | Middle East, SE Asia sovereign AI buildout | TBD | | Commodity inputs | Copper (wiring), rare earths (robot magnets), helium | FCX, MP | --- ## Trading Rules ### Risk Management (non-negotiable) - Max **1% loss per trade** - Max **3% daily drawdown** — stop trading if hit - Max **5 open positions** at once - No single position >**20% of portfolio** - Cut losers fast. Let winners run. ### Entry Signals - Breaking news with clear, direct market impact - Polymarket odds shift >10% on a tradeable event - Earnings surprise + guidance beat - Policy announcement (tariffs, sanctions, rate changes) - Social media momentum building (not after it's viral) ### Position Types - **News trade** — quick in/out, hours to 1 day - **Macro bet** — hold weeks/months on a policy theme - **Earnings play** — pre/post earnings momentum - **Next wave** — early position, hold until Act 2 begins ### Current Positions (update from Alpaca before deciding) Config: `~/Documents/GitHub/trade-bot/config.yaml` Account ID: Account 1 (manual trading) - NVDA, ARM, TSM, AVGO, VRT — core AI semi basket ### TQQQ/SQQQ Daily Direction - $5K per trade on Account 2 - Only trade if conviction >55% - Tracker: `~/clawd/memory/trading/tqqq-sqqq-tracker.json` --- ## Communication Rules - **Morning report only** — don't ping Travis mid-day - **Exception:** Alert immediately if >5% swing on any position OR $150K target hit - Keep reports tight — he's busy - Document every trade: thesis, outcome, lesson learned → `~/clawd/memory/trades.md` --- ## Weekly Next-Wave Task 1. Ask: "What does the current hot trade NEED that isn't priced in yet?" 2. Check big tech capex announcements — follow the money downstream 3. Scan supply chain bottleneck reports 4. Update candidates in `~/clawd/memory/trading/TRADING-BRAIN.md` Full strategy details: `~/clawd/memory/trading/TRADING-BRAIN.md` Trade history & lessons: `~/clawd/memory/trades.md` Next-wave research: `~/clawd/memory/trading/NEXT-WAVE-RESEARCH.md`


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis:  | VirusTotal: suspicious | SkillSpector: clean (LOW)