Skill: leooooooow/demand-signals (version 1.1.0)

--- name: demand-signals description: Identify and interpret early demand signals from social trends, search patterns, competitor behavior, and market data to inform product sourcing and inventory timing decisions. --- # Demand Signals Spot emerging product opportunities before the market catches up. This skill provides a structured approach for collecting, validating, and acting on early demand signals so ecommerce sellers can source with confidence and time their market entry for maximum advantage. ## Quick Reference | Decision | Strong Signal | Acceptable Signal | Weak Signal | |---|---|---|---| | Search volume trend | 40%+ month-over-month growth sustained 3+ weeks | 15-39% MoM growth for 2+ weeks | Under 15% growth or single-week spike | | Social engagement velocity | Viral content (1M+ views) across multiple creators organically | Moderate engagement (100K-1M views) with growing creator adoption | Single viral post with no follow-on content | | Competitor inventory movement | 3+ major sellers stocking the product within 30 days | 1-2 sellers testing with limited SKUs | No competitor movement or only off-brand listings | | Price tolerance indicator | Consumers paying premium (30%+ above category average) | Pricing at category average with strong conversion signals | Heavy discounting needed to move units | | Geographic spread | Demand signals appearing across 3+ distinct markets simultaneously | Concentrated in 1-2 markets with evidence of spread | Isolated to a single niche community or region | | Repeat/refill signal | Evidence of repeat purchases or complementary product searches | Moderate add-to-cart rates with wish-list activity | One-time novelty purchase pattern with no accessories market | ## Solves 1. **Missed trend windows** -- You discover viral products only after the market is saturated and margins have collapsed, leaving you competing on price against dozens of established sellers. 2. **False positive sourcing** -- You commit capital to products based on a single trending TikTok video or news article, only to find the demand was a momentary spike with no sustained purchasing intent. 3. **Inventory timing failures** -- You source the right product but arrive too early (capital tied up, storage costs accumulating) or too late (trend peak has passed, competitors have locked up supply). 4. **Blind spot in competitive landscape** -- You enter a product category without understanding how many sellers are already positioning, what their pricing strategy looks like, or whether major brands are about to launch competing products. 5. **Seasonal miscalculation** -- You misread seasonal demand patterns, ordering summer inventory that arrives in September or holiday stock that clears customs in January. 6. **Unvalidated demand sizing** -- You see signals that a product is trending but have no framework for estimating the realistic addressable market, leading to either dramatic over-ordering or timid test orders that miss the wave. 7. **Single-source signal dependency** -- You rely on one data source (typically Amazon BSR or Google Trends alone) and miss confirming or contradicting evidence from social platforms, supplier order patterns, or geographic trend data. ## Workflow ### Step 1: Signal Collection Cast a wide net across multiple data sources to build an initial list of potential demand signals. The goal is breadth, not depth -- you are looking for raw signals that will be filtered in subsequent steps. **Social platform scanning:** - Monitor TikTok trending sounds and hashtags in product-relevant categories. Focus on the "TikTok Made Me Buy It" ecosystem and adjacent discovery hashtags. Track not just view counts but the rate of new creator adoption -- a product that goes from 3 creators to 30 creators in a week is a stronger signal than a single video with 5 million views. - Check Instagram Reels and YouTube Shorts for cross-platform spread. A trend that remains isolated to one platform has lower commercial potential than one propagating across multiple channels. - Scan Reddit communities (r/BuyItForLife, r/shutupandtakemymoney, category-specific subreddits) for organic product discussions. Reddit threads with high upvote-to-comment ratios on product recommendations indicate genuine purchasing intent. **Search pattern analysis:** - Pull Google Trends data for product category keywords. Look for breakout terms (marked as "Breakout" or showing 200%+ growth). Compare against the same period in prior years to distinguish genuine new demand from seasonal recurrence. - Review Google Ads Keyword Planner for search volume estimates and cost-per-click trends. Rising CPCs in a category signal that sellers see commercial opportunity. - Check Amazon search term reports if you have Seller Central access. Amazon Brand Analytics "Search Query Performance" data reveals what shoppers are searching for before they buy. **Marketplace movement tracking:** - Monitor Amazon Movers and Shakers (top gainers in sales rank over the past 24 hours) across relevant categories. Cross-reference with the New Releases list to spot products gaining traction immediately after launch. - Track AliExpress and 1688.com trending products and supplier order volumes. Sudden spikes in supplier orders often precede consumer-facing trends by 4-8 weeks. - Review Etsy trending searches for handmade and niche product categories where trends often originate before hitting mass market. **Output:** A raw signal list of 10-30 potential product opportunities with the source, date observed, and a brief description of each signal. ### Step 2: Trend Validation Filter the raw signal list by applying validation criteria that separate genuine emerging demand from noise, manipulation, or ephemeral spikes. **Multi-source confirmation:** For each signal on your raw list, look for corroborating evidence from at least two additional independent sources. A product trending on TikTok should also show movement in Google search volume and ideally in marketplace sales rank data. Signals that appear in only one channel are higher risk. **Velocity and duration checks:** - Calculate the rate of change, not just the absolute level. A product going from 500 to 2,000 monthly searches is a stronger signal than one steady at 50,000 searches. - Require a minimum of 14 days of sustained growth before classifying a signal as validated. Single-day or single-week spikes fail this check. - Plot the trend curve. Healthy demand signals show a hockey-stick or steady-climb pattern. Signals that show a sharp spike followed by immediate decline are typically event-driven (a celebrity post, a news cycle) and unlikely to sustain. **Audience intent verification:** - Distinguish between entertainment engagement and purchasing intent. A product video with millions of views but comments saying "that's cool" is weaker than a video with fewer views but comments asking "where can I buy this?" or "what's the link?" - Check if "buy" and "price" related search terms are growing alongside the general product term. For example, if "mushroom lamp" is trending, also check "mushroom lamp Amazon," "mushroom lamp price," and "mushroom lamp buy." - Look for user-generated content showing actual product usage and reviews, not just reaction content. **Manipulation screening:** - Check whether social engagement appears organic or driven by paid promotion, bot activity, or a single influencer's audience. Authentic demand signals show distributed engagement across many independent accounts. - Verify that Amazon BSR improvements correspond to actual reviews and not just listing manipulation or giveaway campaigns. **Output:** A validated signal shortlist of 3-8 products that pass multi-source confirmation, duration checks, and intent verification. ### Step 3: Demand Sizing Estimate the realistic market opportunity for each validated signal to inform order quantities and revenue projections. **Search volume extrapolation:** - Use Google Trends relative volume plus Keyword Planner absolute estimates to model monthly search demand. Apply category-specific conversion rates (typically 1-5% of search volume converts to purchase for product keywords). - Project forward using the current growth rate but apply a decay assumption. Most trending products follow an adoption curve where growth slows as the trend matures. A conservative model uses 50% of current growth rate for projections beyond 30 days. **Marketplace benchmarking:** - Identify 3-5 comparable products that have completed a similar trend cycle in the past. Analyze their peak monthly sales, duration from trend emergence to peak, and the decline pattern. Use these as ceiling and floor estimates for the current opportunity. - Pull estimated sales data from tools like Jungle Scout, Helium 10, or Keepa for current top sellers in the product subcategory. This establishes the current market size baseline. **Addressable market framing:** - Define the total addressable market (searches, social impressions, category sales), the serviceable addressable market (consumers likely to buy from your channel and price point), and your realistic capture rate (typically 2-10% for a new entrant in a trending category). - Factor in geographic constraints. If you only sell in the US market, international trend data informs timing but not your addressable volume. **Output:** For each validated signal, a demand sizing estimate including projected monthly units (conservative, moderate, optimistic), estimated revenue range, and confidence level (high, medium, low). ### Step 4: Competition Assessment Map the competitive landscape to understand how contested the opportunity is and what advantages or barriers exist. **Seller density analysis:** - Count the number of sellers currently offering the product on your target marketplace. Fewer than 10 active listings with no dominant brand suggests an open opportunity. More than 50 listings with established brands signals a contested market. - Assess seller quality. Are current sellers sophisticated (optimized listings, A+ content, strong review profiles) or opportunistic (basic listings, few reviews, generic images)? - Track the rate of new seller entry. If 5 new sellers are listing per week, the window is closing fast. **Brand and IP landscape:** - Search the USPTO trademark database and Amazon Brand Registry for trademarks related to the product category. A branded competitor with registry protection has significant listing advantages. - Check for design patents or utility patents that could limit product variation or sourcing options. - Identify whether any major retail brand (Target, Walmart private label, major DTC brands) has signaled entry into this product category. **Pricing and margin analysis:** - Map current price points from lowest to highest across all active listings. Calculate the average selling price and identify pricing clusters. - Estimate landed cost from supplier quotes (request quotes from 3+ suppliers on Alibaba or 1688) and calculate gross margin at various price points. - Determine if there is room for a value positioning, a premium positioning, or if margins are already compressed. **Output:** A competition assessment including seller count and entry velocity, brand/IP risk level, pricing map with margin estimates, and an overall competitive difficulty rating (low, moderate, high, prohibitive). ### Step 5: Timing Analysis Determine the optimal window for market entry based on trend trajectory, supply chain lead times, and seasonal factors. **Trend lifecycle positioning:** - Assess where the trend currently sits on the adoption curve: early emergence (less than 20% of projected peak interest), rapid growth (20-60% of peak), approaching peak (60-90%), or post-peak decline. - The ideal entry window is during the rapid growth phase. Entering during early emergence carries validation risk. Entering at or after peak means competing against established sellers with reviews and optimized listings. **Supply chain timeline mapping:** - Map the critical path from order placement to first unit available for sale. Include supplier production time (typically 15-30 days), shipping (sea freight 25-40 days, air freight 5-10 days), customs clearance (3-7 days), and inbound receiving at warehouse or FBA (5-14 days). - For a standard sea freight order, the total pipeline is typically 50-90 days. For air freight, 25-45 days. Your entry timing decision must account for this lag. - Calculate the "order by" date: the latest date you can place an order and still arrive while the trend is in a commercially viable phase. **Seasonal overlay:** - Cross-reference trend timing with seasonal purchasing patterns. A home organization trend emerging in December aligns with New Year's resolution purchasing in January. A fitness product trending in October may benefit from New Year demand. - Account for marketplace-specific events: Prime Day (typically July), Back to School (August-September), Black Friday/Cyber Monday (November), and Q4 holiday season. - Factor in seasonal shipping disruptions: Chinese New Year (January-February) shuts down most suppliers for 2-4 weeks, and Q4 ocean freight rates and times increase significantly. **Output:** A timing recommendation including current trend phase, optimal order date, expected arrival date, projected trend phase at arrival, and key seasonal considerations. ### Step 6: Action Plan Synthesize all previous analysis into a concrete go/no-go recommendation with specific next steps. **Go/No-Go framework:** Apply a scoring system across the five dimensions: - Signal strength (validated across 3+ sources = Go, 2 sources = Conditional, 1 source = No-Go) - Demand size (projected monthly revenue above your minimum threshold = Go, marginal = Conditional, below threshold = No-Go) - Competitive difficulty (low to moderate = Go, high = Conditional, prohibitive = No-Go) - Timing feasibility (arrival during growth phase = Go, arrival near peak = Conditional, arrival post-peak = No-Go) - Margin viability (gross margin above 40% = Go, 25-40% = Conditional, below 25% = No-Go) A product needs "Go" on at least 3 of 5 dimensions and no "No-Go" on any dimension to proceed. **Order specification:** For products that receive a Go decision: - Define the initial test order quantity (typically 100-500 units depending on unit cost and confidence level). - Specify the product variant (size, color, features) based on demand signal analysis. - Set the target landed cost per unit and maximum acceptable cost. - Choose the shipping method based on timing analysis. **Risk mitigation:** - Define the maximum capital at risk for the initial order and ensure it aligns with your overall inventory budget allocation. - Identify a pivot plan if demand does not materialize as projected (alternative sales channels, liquidation pricing, bundling options). - Set review triggers: specific dates or sales velocity thresholds at which you will re-evaluate and decide whether to reorder, hold, or liquidate. **Output:** A final action brief including the go/no-go decision, order specifications (if Go), timeline with key milestones, risk mitigation plan, and review trigger dates. ## Worked Examples ### Example 1: Spotting a Viral Home Gadget Trend -- Sunset Projection Lamp **Context:** In mid-February, an ecommerce seller scanning TikTok notices multiple videos of a "sunset projection lamp" going viral -- a device that projects a warm, sunset-colored circle of light onto walls for aesthetic room lighting and photography backdrops. **Step 1 -- Signal Collection:** The seller identifies the following raw signals: - TikTok: 14 independent creators posted sunset lamp content in the past 10 days, with combined views exceeding 8 million. The hashtag #sunsetlamp grew from 2 million to 18 million views in two weeks. - Google Trends: "sunset lamp" shows "Breakout" status in the US, with relative search interest jumping from 12 to 78 over three weeks. - Amazon: A search for "sunset lamp" returns only 23 results, with the top listing having 47 reviews and a BSR of 3,200 in Lighting. Two weeks ago that same listing had a BSR of 28,000. - Reddit: Three threads in r/cozyplaces and r/roomporn featuring sunset lamp photos received 2,000+ upvotes each. **Step 2 -- Trend Validation:** - Multi-source confirmation: The signal appears across TikTok, Google Search, Amazon sales data, and Reddit -- four independent sources. This passes the multi-source check decisively. - Velocity and duration: Growth has been sustained for three weeks with acceleration, not a single spike. The Google Trends curve shows a steady hockey-stick pattern. - Audience intent: TikTok comments are heavily weighted toward "where did you get this?" and "link please" rather than passive entertainment responses. Amazon search volume for "sunset lamp buy" is also growing. Strong purchase intent confirmed. - Manipulation screening: The 14 TikTok creators appear to be independent (different follower counts, niches, and geographies). No evidence of a coordinated campaign. The signal appears organic. **Step 3 -- Demand Sizing:** - Google Keyword Planner estimates 33,000 monthly US searches for "sunset lamp" and related terms, up from 4,000 the previous month. - The top Amazon listing is estimated (via Jungle Scout) to be selling 40-60 units per day at $19.99, generating roughly $25,000-$36,000 in monthly revenue from a single listing. - Comparable trend analysis: The "star projector" trend from 14 months prior peaked at approximately 110,000 monthly searches and $2.8 million in monthly Amazon category sales before settling to a sustained baseline of 30,000 monthly searches. - Conservative demand estimate: 200-400 units per month at a $17.99-$22.99 price point for a new entrant. Moderate estimate: 600-1,000 units per month if listing optimization and advertising are strong. **Step 4 -- Competition Assessment:** - Only 23 listings on Amazon, most with fewer than 20 reviews. No major brand presence. No Amazon's Choice badge assigned yet. - No relevant trademarks found in USPTO search. The product is a generic LED projector design with no patent barriers. - Supplier quotes on Alibaba: $3.50-$5.00 per unit for MOQ 200. Air freight to US estimated at $2.50 per unit. Landed cost approximately $7.50-$9.00 per unit. - At a selling price of $19.99 with Amazon FBA fees of approximately $5.50, gross margin is $5.50-$7.00 per unit (27-35%). At $22.99, margin improves to $8.50-$10.00 per unit (37-43%). - Competitive difficulty: Low. The window is open but new sellers are entering weekly. **Step 5 -- Timing Analysis:** - The trend is currently in the rapid growth phase (estimated 30-40% of projected peak based on the star projector comparable). - Air freight order timeline: 20 days production plus 8 days shipping plus 5 days customs and inbound = 33 days. - If the order is placed this week, units arrive in approximately 5 weeks, which should align with continued growth through spring (room decor purchasing is strong March through May). - No major seasonal conflicts. Chinese New Year has already passed. **Step 6 -- Action Plan:** - Decision: **Go**. Signal strength is strong (4 sources), demand size is attractive, competition is low, timing is favorable, and margins are acceptable at the $22.99 price point. - Initial order: 300 units, warm white color variant (most popular in TikTok content), air freight. - Target landed cost: $8.50 per unit maximum. - Review trigger: If fewer than 5 units per day sell in the first 14 days after listing goes live, pause advertising and evaluate whether to liquidate or wait. If more than 15 units per day, place a reorder of 1,000 units via sea freight immediately. --- ### Example 2: Identifying a Seasonal Apparel Demand Shift -- Oversized Linen Shirts **Context:** In early March, a private-label apparel seller notices signals that oversized linen shirts are trending earlier than usual for the spring/summer season, suggesting a potential shift in seasonal demand timing. **Step 1 -- Signal Collection:** - Google Trends: "oversized linen shirt" and "linen button down" show search interest beginning its annual rise 3-4 weeks earlier than the same period last year. Current relative interest is at 45, compared to 22 at the same date last year. - Pinterest: "Linen outfit" pins saw a 67% increase in saves during February compared to the prior year's February, according to Pinterest Trends data. - Instagram: Fashion micro-influencers (10K-100K followers) in southern US and Australian markets are posting spring linen content, and engagement rates on these posts are 40% above their account averages. - Competitor tracking: Two mid-tier DTC brands (monitored via email list subscriptions) sent "Spring Linen Collection" promotional emails in the first week of March -- historically they launch these campaigns in late March or early April. - Supplier data: The seller's primary fabric supplier in Guangzhou reports that linen blend fabric orders from other clients are up 25% year-over-year for the January-February period. **Step 2 -- Trend Validation:** - Multi-source confirmation: Five independent sources (Google Trends, Pinterest, Instagram, competitor behavior, supplier data) all point in the same direction. This is an exceptionally well-confirmed signal. - Velocity and duration: The earlier-than-normal seasonal rise has been consistent for 4 weeks, not a one-week anomaly. The year-over-year comparison provides strong baseline context. - Audience intent: Pinterest saves are a strong purchase-intent indicator for apparel. The competitor email campaigns confirm that brands with professional demand forecasting teams are also reading this signal. - Manipulation screening: Seasonal demand shifts are not susceptible to manipulation. The supplier order data provides independent physical-world confirmation. **Step 3 -- Demand Sizing:** - Last year, "oversized linen shirt" peaked at approximately 74,000 monthly US searches in June. Based on the earlier and stronger start, this year's peak is projected at 85,000-95,000 monthly searches, arriving in mid-to-late May rather than June. - The seller's existing linen shirt listings generated $38,000 in revenue during last year's peak month. With the earlier demand onset, total seasonal revenue (April-August) could increase 20-35% if inventory is available to capture the earlier demand. - Conservative sizing: Plan for the same total seasonal units as last year but shift 25% of inventory availability forward by 3-4 weeks. Moderate sizing: Increase total seasonal inventory by 15% and shift timing forward. **Step 4 -- Competition Assessment:** - The oversized linen shirt category on Amazon has 200+ listings, but the seller already has an established presence with 3 listings averaging 4.3-star ratings and 150+ reviews each. - The two DTC competitors launching early are not Amazon sellers, so they compete primarily through their own websites and Instagram shopping. - The key competitive risk is not new entrants but other existing Amazon linen sellers who may also read the early demand signals and adjust their inventory timing. - Margins on the seller's existing products are established at 42% gross after FBA fees, so margin viability is not a concern. **Step 5 -- Timing Analysis:** - The seasonal demand curve is estimated to be 3-4 weeks ahead of last year. If the seller's production and shipping timeline remains on last year's schedule, they will miss the first 3-4 weeks of viable demand -- the period where competition for ad placements and organic ranking is lowest. - Current inventory will cover approximately 3 weeks of sales at projected early-season velocity. Without a reorder, the seller will stock out before peak demand. - Production timeline for a reorder: The seller's existing supplier can produce 2,000 units in 18 days (established relationship, patterns already on file). Sea freight is 28 days. Total pipeline: 46 days. Air freight alternative: 25 days total at an incremental cost of $3.20 per unit. - Recommendation: Place a reorder now via sea freight for the bulk order (2,000 units arriving in approximately 7 weeks), plus a smaller air freight order (400 units arriving in approximately 4 weeks) to bridge the gap. **Step 6 -- Action Plan:** - Decision: **Go** on accelerated reorder. This is a low-risk decision because the seller already has proven products, established supplier relationships, and validated margins. The risk is limited to the incremental air freight cost and the possibility that early demand signals do not sustain, leaving the seller with excess inventory that will sell during the normal season regardless. - Order 1: 400 units via air freight, production start immediately. Target arrival: early April. Purpose: capture early-season demand and maintain ranking momentum. - Order 2: 2,000 units via sea freight, production start immediately. Target arrival: mid-to-late April. Purpose: primary seasonal inventory. - Variant allocation: 40% neutral tones (white, beige, sage), 35% earth tones (terracotta, olive), 25% fashion colors (based on Pantone spring palette trends). - Review triggers: Monitor daily sales velocity and inventory coverage weekly. If daily sales exceed 30 units before the sea freight order arrives, explore an emergency air freight bridge order. If daily sales remain below 10 units by mid-April, reduce PPC spend and let inventory sell through organically. ## Common Mistakes 1. **Chasing single-platform spikes.** A product goes viral on TikTok and the seller places an order the same day without checking whether search volume, marketplace data, or any other source confirms purchasing intent. Many viral videos generate entertainment engagement but not buyer behavior. Always require multi-source confirmation before committing capital. 2. **Ignoring the velocity of competitor entry.** The seller validates a demand signal and begins sourcing, but does not monitor how quickly other sellers are entering the market. By the time inventory arrives 60 days later, the listing count has gone from 15 to 150 and the average selling price has dropped 40%. Track competitor entry rate weekly during your production and shipping pipeline. 3. **Confusing seasonal recurrence with new demand.** A product shows a 100% increase in search volume in March compared to January, and the seller interprets this as a breakout trend. In reality, the product has the same seasonal pattern every year. Always compare current data to the same period in prior years using Google Trends' date range comparison feature. 4. **Anchoring demand estimates to best-case scenarios.** The seller sees a comparable product that sold 5,000 units per month at peak and assumes they can capture similar volume. Realistic market share for a new entrant with zero reviews is typically 2-8% of the top seller's volume. Use conservative estimates for initial orders and scale based on actual performance. 5. **Neglecting landed cost in margin calculations.** The seller calculates margin based on product cost and selling price without fully accounting for shipping, duties, customs brokerage, FBA fees, advertising costs, returns, and storage fees. A product that looks like a 50% margin opportunity on paper can easily be a 15% margin product after all costs are included. Build a complete cost model before ordering. 6. **Ordering maximum quantity on first batch.** The seller is convinced the opportunity is large and places a 5,000-unit order to get the best per-unit price from the supplier. If the demand does not materialize, this capital is locked in slow-moving inventory. Start with a test order (100-500 units), validate actual sales velocity, and then scale with larger reorders. 7. **Failing to account for trend lifecycle timing.** The seller spends two weeks on analysis, two weeks negotiating with suppliers, and then places an order with a 60-day production and shipping timeline. By the time inventory arrives, the trend has peaked and is declining. Map the complete timeline from decision to first-sale and compare it against the projected trend lifecycle before committing. 8. **Relying exclusively on free tools for demand sizing.** Google Trends provides relative interest data but not absolute volume. Amazon BSR gives directional movement but not precise unit sales. Free tools are valuable for signal detection but insufficient for demand sizing. Invest in at least one paid data tool (Jungle Scout, Helium 10, Keepa, or similar) for credible volume estimates. 9. **Dismissing signals from adjacent categories.** The seller monitors their specific product category but ignores trends in complementary or adjacent categories. A surge in home office furniture demand signals potential opportunity in desk accessories, cable management, and ergonomic products. Maintain awareness of category adjacencies and follow the chain of related demand. 10. **Skipping the exit plan.** The seller develops a thorough entry plan but does not define what happens if the product does not sell. Every order should include a clear liquidation trigger (a specific date and sales velocity threshold) and a liquidation strategy (price reduction schedule, bundling, alternative channel, or wholesale disposal). Hope is not an inventory management strategy. ## Resources - **references/output-template.md** -- Structured template for documenting a complete demand signal analysis, from initial signal identification through final action recommendation. - **references/signal-sources-guide.md** -- Comprehensive guide to demand signal sources, including setup instructions, data interpretation, and source-specific best practices. - **references/validation-framework.md** -- Decision framework for determining whether a demand signal is real, sustainable, and actionable, with scoring criteria and threshold definitions. - **assets/quality-checklist.md** -- 35+ item checklist across 7 categories for validating the completeness and rigor of a demand signal analysis before committing capital.


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