Skill: tiejiang8/fp-dcf (version 0.5.1)

--- name: "fp-dcf" description: "Estimate intrinsic value with a first-principles DCF from structured JSON or provider-backed ticker input, and return auditable FCFF, WACC, and per-share value output." metadata: {"openclaw":{"emoji":"📉","homepage":"https://github.com/tiejiang8/FP-DCF","requires":{"anyBins":["python3","python"]}}} user-invocable: true --- # FP-DCF Version: `v0.6.0` ## Repository Workflow Notice - For this repository, GitHub submissions do not use a separate branch workflow. - Do not create a feature branch for routine updates; commit and publish on the designated branch directly unless the user explicitly asks for a different flow. - If a default workflow suggests opening a branch or PR, treat that as incorrect for this repository. Use this skill when the task is to estimate intrinsic value from structured fundamentals and assumption inputs using a disciplined, auditable DCF workflow. ## Invocation Scope Use this skill when the user asks for: - intrinsic value - DCF valuation - `FCFF` / `WACC` based valuation - market-implied growth - what growth rate is implied by the current market price - `WACC / terminal-growth` sensitivity - auditable valuation JSON for a company Do not use this skill as the only answer when the user asks: - should I buy or sell this stock - which stock is better - build me a portfolio - rank an industry - backtest a strategy - analyze a bank, insurer, broker, or financial-sector company For investment-report tasks, FP-DCF may be used only as the valuation layer. The agent must still handle: - industry structure - competitive advantage - business quality - revenue / margin drivers - balance-sheet risk - management and capital allocation - valuation conclusion ## Model Selection Rule - Use `steady_state_single_stage` when the company is mature, normalized, or the user wants a conservative base case. - Use `two_stage` when there is a defensible explicit high-growth period followed by stable growth. - Use `three_stage` when high growth is expected to fade gradually before terminal growth. - Use `market_implied_growth.enabled=true` when the user asks what the current price implies. - Use sensitivity output by default unless the environment lacks `matplotlib` or the user asks for JSON-only output. ## Runtime Contract This repository is executable when installed as a skill because it includes a concrete CLI entrypoint: - Primary runner: `{baseDir}/scripts/run_dcf.py` - Python module entrypoint: `python3 -m fp_dcf.cli` - Sample input: `{baseDir}/examples/sample_input.json` - Base Python dependencies for the default one-click path: `akshare`, `baostock`, `numpy`, `pandas`, `yfinance`, `matplotlib` Preferred execution pattern: 1. Build a JSON payload that matches `{baseDir}/examples/sample_input.json`. 2. Write that payload to a temporary JSON file in the workspace. 3. Run one of: - `python3 {baseDir}/scripts/run_dcf.py --input /path/to/input.json --pretty` - `python {baseDir}/scripts/run_dcf.py --input /path/to/input.json --pretty` 4. Read the JSON output and present the result to the user. If the runtime supports stdin piping, this also works: ```bash python3 {baseDir}/scripts/run_dcf.py --pretty < /path/to/input.json ``` Provider-backed normalization uses a local provider cache by default. To force a fresh pull for the current request, run: ```bash python3 {baseDir}/scripts/run_dcf.py --input /path/to/input.json --pretty --refresh-provider ``` If the runtime needs an isolated cache location, pass: ```bash python3 {baseDir}/scripts/run_dcf.py --input /path/to/input.json --pretty --cache-dir /path/to/cache ``` The main runner already returns a compact sensitivity summary and auto-renders both SVG and PNG chart artifacts by default. If the user explicitly asks for a `WACC x Terminal Growth` chart or sensitivity table, keep using the same main runner so the valuation JSON and artifact paths come back in a single output: ```bash python3 {baseDir}/scripts/run_dcf.py \ --input /path/to/input.json \ --output /path/to/output.json \ --pretty ``` That one command will default the chart artifact paths to `/path/to/output.sensitivity.svg` and `/path/to/output.sensitivity.png`. ## Input Shape The expected JSON object contains: - `ticker` - `market` - `valuation_model` - `assumptions` - `fundamentals` Minimum required values for a useful result: - `assumptions.effective_tax_rate` - `assumptions.marginal_tax_rate` - `assumptions.risk_free_rate` - `assumptions.equity_risk_premium` - `assumptions.beta` - `assumptions.pre_tax_cost_of_debt` - `fundamentals.fcff_anchor` or `fundamentals.ebit` Supported `valuation_model` values in `v0.6.0`: - `steady_state_single_stage` - `two_stage` - `three_stage` For `two_stage`, the engine continues to support the legacy `assumptions.high_growth_rate` / `high_growth_years` fields and also accepts `assumptions.stage1_growth_rate` / `stage1_years` as compatible aliases. For `three_stage`, the valuation path requires these assumption fields: - `assumptions.terminal_growth_rate` - `assumptions.stage1_growth_rate` - `assumptions.stage1_years` - `assumptions.stage2_end_growth_rate` - `assumptions.stage2_years` For `three_stage`, this optional field is also supported: - `assumptions.stage2_decay_mode` with default `linear` `market_implied_growth` is the only formal market-implied block. Its meaning depends on `valuation_model`: `steady_state_single_stage` solves market-implied long-term growth, while `two_stage` and `three_stage` solve market-implied stage-1 growth. If `fundamentals.fcff_anchor` is not supplied, the runner computes it from: - `ebit` - `da` - `capex` - `delta_nwc` or a fallback working-capital field If those structured fields are mostly missing, the runner can auto-normalize them from a live provider when: - `provider` is set to `yahoo`, or - `provider` is set to `akshare_baostock` for `market=CN`, or - the payload has a `ticker` but is missing core DCF inputs The minimal provider-backed input shape is: ```json { "ticker": "AAPL", "market": "US", "provider": "yahoo", "statement_frequency": "A", "valuation_model": "steady_state_single_stage", "assumptions": { "terminal_growth_rate": 0.03 } } ``` For China A-shares, this explicit provider shape is also supported: ```json { "ticker": "600519.SH", "market": "CN", "provider": "akshare_baostock", "statement_frequency": "A", "valuation_model": "steady_state_single_stage", "assumptions": { "terminal_growth_rate": 0.025 } } ``` When `market="CN"` and Yahoo normalization fails, FP-DCF automatically falls back to `akshare_baostock`. In that path, AkShare provides statement data and BaoStock provides price history and the latest close. The payload can also drive normalization behavior through an optional `normalization` object: - `normalization.provider` - `normalization.use_cache` - `normalization.refresh` - `normalization.cache_dir` - `normalization.max_cache_age_hours` The payload can also request sensitivity analysis through an optional `sensitivity` object: - `sensitivity.enabled` - `sensitivity.metric` - `sensitivity.detail` - `sensitivity.chart_path` - `sensitivity.wacc_range_bps` - `sensitivity.wacc_step_bps` - `sensitivity.growth_range_bps` - `sensitivity.growth_step_bps` The payload can also request market-implied growth through an optional `market_implied_growth` object: - `market_implied_growth.enabled` - `market_implied_growth.lower_bound` - `market_implied_growth.upper_bound` - `market_implied_growth.solver` - `market_implied_growth.tolerance` - `market_implied_growth.max_iterations` `market_implied_growth` always solves one field based on `valuation_model`: - `steady_state_single_stage` -> `growth_rate` - `two_stage` -> `stage1_growth_rate` - `three_stage` -> `stage1_growth_rate` Sensitivity output is enabled by default. To disable it for a specific run: - pass `--no-sensitivity`, or - set `sensitivity.enabled=false` Live provider-backed runs are inherently date-sensitive. Do not hard-code expected valuation numbers when validating this path; validate the presence and plausibility of the returned fields instead. Provider-backed runs return `data_freshness`: - `fresh`: provider cache age is within the allowed window - `stale`: provider cache age exceeds the allowed window; treat the valuation as degraded - `unknown`: cache creation time is missing or unreadable; treat the valuation as degraded - `missing`: provider data is structurally missing; treat the valuation as degraded or fail if a required field is unavailable - `user_supplied`: manual structured input; do not force a freshness judgment Default freshness windows are `24` hours for price-sensitive provider snapshots and `168` hours for statement-only snapshots. Use `--refresh-provider`, `normalization.refresh=true`, or a stricter `normalization.max_cache_age_hours` when the user asks for current market data. ## Core Rules ### Tax Policy - Keep the operating tax estimate for `FCFF` separate from the marginal tax assumption used in `WACC`. - If the statement-level tax rate is available, prefer it for `EBIAT/NOPAT`. - If the marginal tax rate is manual or market-defaulted, expose that source in the output. - Do not silently reuse one tax rate for both paths when the intended sources differ. If a fallback reuse happens, surface it in `warnings`. ### Working-Capital Policy Use this fallback order and report which path was used: 1. `delta_nwc` 2. `op_nwc_delta` 3. `nwc_delta` 4. cash-flow working-capital change fields such as `change_in_working_capital` If all paths fail, flag the result as degraded rather than pretending the estimate is fully reliable. ### FCFF Policy - Prefer a normalized steady-state `FCFF` anchor for single-stage valuation. - Prefer `NOPAT + ROIC + reinvestment` when the driver data is usable. - Fall back to normalized historical `FCFF` only when the operating-driver path is incomplete. - Do not discount historical realized `FCFF` as if it were a forward forecast. ### WACC Policy - Use explicit sources for risk-free rate, ERP, beta, pre-tax debt cost, and capital weights. - Prefer explicit capital weights from the input payload when available. - Apply the marginal tax assumption only to the debt tax shield. - Attach a warning when key inputs are manual, defaulted, stale, or missing. ### Sector Policy - Financial institutions often produce unreliable `FCFF` under industrial-company DCF logic. - When the company is bank-like, insurer-like, broker-like, or otherwise balance-sheet-driven, downgrade or exclude the result unless the workflow explicitly supports that sector. ## Output Requirements Always return: - valuation model used - `contract_version` - `requested_valuation_model` - `effective_valuation_model` - `degraded` - major assumptions with source labels - `FCFF` anchor and anchor method - working-capital source used - `WACC` inputs and capital weights - enterprise value, equity value, and per-share value when available - `valuation.present_value_stage1` - `valuation.present_value_stage2` - `valuation.present_value_terminal` - `valuation.terminal_value` - `valuation.terminal_value_share` - `valuation.explicit_forecast_years` - `market_implied_growth` when that block is enabled and valid - `data_freshness` with `provider`, `snapshot_as_of`, `cache_created_at`, `cache_age_hours`, `freshness_class`, and `requires_refresh` - provider cache status diagnostics when provider-backed normalization is used - diagnostics, warnings, and degradation flags - by default, return a compact sensitivity summary plus both chart file paths Canonical JSON Schema contracts live in: - `contracts/valuation_input.schema.json` - `contracts/valuation_output.schema.json` - `contracts/data_freshness.schema.json` - `contracts/market_implied_growth.schema.json` - `contracts/sensitivity_summary.schema.json` Treat `contracts/` as machine contracts, not as loose documentation. `contract_version` exists so downstream agents and pipelines can make explicit compatibility decisions. Schema-valid does not guarantee business-semantic equivalence. Differences in assumptions, defaults, freshness, and degraded execution paths can still materially change how the output should be interpreted. ## Execution Notes - Use `{baseDir}` instead of guessing the install path. - Prefer writing a JSON file and passing `--input` over hand-building one-line shell JSON. - If the payload only contains `ticker/market` plus light assumptions, rely on provider-backed normalization instead of fabricating fundamentals. - Use the default provider cache for repeated runs on the same ticker unless the user explicitly asks for fresh data. - If the user asks for the latest market or statement snapshot, add `--refresh-provider` or set `normalization.refresh=true`. - If `data_freshness.freshness_class` is `stale`, `unknown`, or `missing`, surface the warning and avoid presenting the valuation as current. - If `data_freshness.requires_refresh=true` and the user asked for current market conditions, rerun with `--refresh-provider`. - If the user asks for a valuation sensitivity table or heatmap, prefer the main runner with its default sensitivity output and auto-generated chart path over a separate second command. - If the caller needs the full numeric heatmap grid in JSON, set `sensitivity.detail=true` instead of bloating the default output for every run. - Only use `--sensitivity-chart-output` or `sensitivity.chart_path` when the caller explicitly wants to override the default artifact location. - The default one-click path assumes `matplotlib` is installed, because PNG/SVG chart artifacts are rendered automatically. - If the environment intentionally excludes `matplotlib`, disable sensitivity first with `--no-sensitivity` or `sensitivity.enabled=false` before running the main CLI. - If `per_share_value` sensitivity is unavailable because `shares_out` is missing, try `--refresh-provider` first or switch the sensitivity metric to `equity_value`. - If the user only gives high-level valuation preferences, ask for or derive the missing structured inputs before running the script. - If `valuation_model=three_stage` is missing `stage1_growth_rate`, `stage1_years`, `stage2_end_growth_rate`, `stage2_years`, or `terminal_growth_rate`, fail with a clear error instead of falling back. - If `valuation_model` is unknown, fail with an error containing `unsupported valuation_model`; do not silently remap it to another model. - Do not silently degrade a requested `three_stage` valuation into `two_stage` or `steady_state_single_stage`. - Keep the market-implied growth contract stable in `v0.6.0`: `market_implied_growth` remains the only formal market-implied block. - Keep `market_implied_growth` as the only formal market-implied block and derive the solved field from `valuation_model`. - Reject legacy market-implied inputs with explicit errors. - If the user wants single-stage market-implied growth, route that request through `payload.market_implied_growth.enabled=true` and let [REDACTED_SECRET] determine the solved field. - Read [references/methodology.md](./references/methodology.md) only when you need policy detail beyond this file. ## Reference Map Read only what you need: - [references/methodology.md](./references/methodology.md) for the valuation methodology - [examples/sample_input.json](./examples/sample_input.json) for the intended input contract - [examples/sample_output.json](./examples/sample_output.json) for the intended output contract - [examples/sample_input_market_implied_growth_single_stage.json](./examples/sample_input_market_implied_growth_single_stage.json) for a minimal single-stage market-implied growth example - [examples/sample_input_market_implied_growth_two_stage.json](./examples/sample_input_market_implied_growth_two_stage.json) for a minimal two-stage market-implied growth example - [examples/sample_input_market_implied_growth_three_stage.json](./examples/sample_input_market_implied_growth_three_stage.json) for a minimal three-stage market-implied growth example - [examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_single_stage.json](./examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_single_stage.json) and [examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_single_stage.output.json](./examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_single_stage.output.json) for a real 300347.SZ single-stage market-implied demo - [examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_two_stage.json](./examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_two_stage.json) and [examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_two_stage.output.json](./examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_two_stage.output.json) for a real 300347.SZ two-stage market-implied demo - [examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_three_stage.json](./examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_three_stage.json) and [examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_three_stage.output.json](./examples/300347.sz_market_implied_growth_three_stage.output.json) for a real 300347.SZ three-stage market-implied demo - [examples/cn_moutai_single_stage.json](./examples/cn_moutai_single_stage.json) for a CN provider-backed single-stage example - `contracts/valuation_input.schema.json` and `contracts/valuation_output.schema.json` for the canonical JSON contracts ## Quality Bar - Prefer explicit assumptions over hidden heuristics. - Prefer auditable fallbacks over brittle elegance. - Label degraded results clearly. - Be conservative when provider data is incomplete or inconsistent. - If a result depends heavily on terminal value, include that in the diagnostics.

path: fp_dcf/providers/__init__.py
content: """Provider-backed normalization helpers for FP-DCF."""


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: clean | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: clean (LOW)