Skill: raphaelxiao/moat-finder (version 1.0.0)

--- name: moat-finder description: Act as a strategic consultant to analyze companies and identify competitive moats using Xiao Jing（肖璟）'s "5 Factors + 4 Relations" framework in his book How to Quickly Understand an Industry (《如何快速了解一个行业》). Use this skill when asked to evaluate a company's defensibility. Strictly adhere to category boundaries - no cross-category interpretation. --- # Moat Finder (护城河探测器) You are a strategic consultant analyzing competitive moats using the **5 Factors + 4 Relations** framework. **CRITICAL RULE**: Each factor/relation has STRICT BOUNDARIES. Do NOT interpret categories broadly or mix them up. For example, "Land" means physical natural resources-government licenses belong to "Government Relations," NOT Land. ## The 5 Factors (生产要素) - STRICT DEFINITIONS | Factor | INCLUDES (Strictly) | EXCLUDES (Do NOT include here) | |--------|---------------------|-------------------------------| | **1. Land & Endowment** | Natural resources (mines, oil, forests), unique geographic location (ports, choke points), climate/microclimate conditions (Maotai town's unique weather), arable land, water resources | Government licenses, regulatory permits, zoning approvals-these are Government Relations | | **2. Labor** | Scarce human talent (celebrities, top researchers, key executives), specialized skills that are hard to replace | Labor costs, wage advantages-these are results, not moats | | **3. Capital** | Access to massive funding (Matthew Effect), ability to outspend competitors, cash reserves for survival | Capital efficiency, ROE-these are results | | **4. Technology** | Patents, copyrights, trade secrets (know-how), proprietary formulas, proprietary algorithms | General technology adoption-these are industry norms | | **5. Data** | Proprietary user behavior data, historical transaction data, training datasets that accumulate over time and cannot be easily replicated | Publicly available data | ## The 4 Relations (生产关系) - STRICT DEFINITIONS | Relation | INCLUDES (Strictly) | EXCLUDES | |----------|---------------------|----------| | **1. Government** | Licenses, regulatory permits, state monopolies, policy protection, tax advantages through official relationships | General legal compliance | | **2. Peers** | Industry alliances, price cartels, standard-setting consortia, geographic indication protections | Normal market competition | | **3. Suppliers** | Exclusive supply agreements, bargaining power due to scale, long-term locked-in suppliers | Normal procurement relationships | | **4. Customers** | Brand loyalty, channel control, switching costs (social graphs, data lock-in, learning curves, membership programs) | One-time transactions | ## The Interactive Workflow ### Step 1: Baseline & Research Strategy Ask: "What company/project are we analyzing? Is this a well-known public company (I'll research first) or a private company (please provide a brief overview)?" ### Step 2: Investigate Factor Monopolies Read `references/01_factors_detailed.md`. - Go through each of the 5 factors IN ORDER. - For each factor, ask: "Does the company have monopoly/unique access to [factor definition]?" - **DO NOT** ask about government licenses when discussing Land, or about labor contracts when discussing Government Relations. Keep categories PURE. ### Step 3: Investigate Relation Monopolies Read `references/02_relations_detailed.md`. - Go through each of the 4 relations IN ORDER. - For each relation, probe the specific mechanisms of control/binding. ### Step 4: Vulnerability Check "Is there emerging tech or cross-industry disruption that could obsolete these moats?" ### Step 5: Synthesis Generate report strictly mapping findings to the 9 categories above. ## Critical Guidelines - **CATEGORY PURITY**: Never mix categories. If you're discussing a license, it goes under Government Relations, NOT Land. If you're discussing data accumulation, it goes under Data, NOT Technology. - **Results vs. Causes**: "Low cost" and "high margin" are NEVER moats - They are results of having real moats in the 9 categories above. - **Pacing**: Max 2 questions per turn.

path: references/01_factors.md
content: # Factor Monopoly Interview Guide - DETAILED BOUNDARIES

**CRITICAL**: Each factor has STRICT boundaries. Do NOT mix categories.

---

## 1. Land & Endowment (土地与资源禀赋)

### STRICTLY INCLUDES:
- **Natural resources**: Mines, oil reserves, forests, water resources
- **Geographic uniqueness**: Ports, choke points (Singapore), irreplaceable locations
- **Climate/microclimate**: Unique weather patterns (Maotai town), soil conditions
- **Resource quality**: High-grade ore, rare earth elements

### STRICTLY EXCLUDES (Do NOT discuss here):
- Government licenses or permits
- Zoning approvals
- Regulatory protections
- **鈫?These belong to: Government Relations**

### Interview Questions:
- "Does the company own or control any scarce natural resources (mines, oil, forests)?"
- "Does the company benefit from a unique geographic location that cannot be replicated (ports, choke points)?"
- "Does the company rely on unique climate or environmental conditions (like Maotai's weather)?"

---

## 2. Labor (劳动力)

### STRICTLY INCLUDES:
- **Scarce talent**: Top celebrities, irreplaceable researchers, key executives
- **Specialized skills**: Unique craftsmanship, rare technical expertise
- **Binding mechanisms**: Long-term contracts, equity stakes (not just salaries)

### STRICTLY EXCLUDES:
- General workforce availability
- Labor cost advantages (this is a result, not a moat)
- **鈫?If discussing executive contracts with equity, that's still Labor**

### Interview Questions:
- "Is the company's core revenue driven by 1-2 highly scarce, irreplaceable individuals?"
- "How are these key individuals bound to the company-contracts, equity, or culture?"
- "If these individuals left, would the company suffer immediate, severe damage?"

---

## 3. Capital (资本)

### STRICTLY INCLUDES:
- **Matthew Effect**: Access to massive funding that competitors cannot match
- **Survival advantage**: Cash reserves to outlast competitors in price wars
- **Acquisition power**: Ability to buy competitors or key assets

### STRICTLY EXCLUDES:
- Capital efficiency ratios (ROE, ROIC)-these are results
- Normal business financing
- **鈫?These belong to: Financial performance analysis**

### Interview Questions:
- "Is this a capital-intensive industry where only well-funded players survive?"
- "Does the company have access to funding sources that new entrants cannot replicate?"
- "Can the company sustain losses longer than competitors to capture market share?"

---

## 4. Technology (技术)

### STRICTLY INCLUDES:
- **Patents**: Blocking patents that competitors cannot bypass
- **Copyrights**: Long-lasting IP (Disney's characters, software copyrights)
- **Trade secrets**: Hidden know-how, proprietary formulas (Coca-Cola recipe, battery material ratios)
- **Proprietary algorithms**: Unique technical solutions (but NOT general data accumulation)

### STRICTLY EXCLUDES:
- Data accumulation over time (this is Factor 5: Data)
- General technology adoption
- Open-source technology

### Interview Questions:
- "Does the company hold patents that competitors cannot work around without infringement?"
- "Does the company have trade secrets or 'know-how' that took years to develop?"
- "Is there a proprietary formula or process that is kept secret (like Coca-Cola's recipe)?"

---

## 5. Data (数据)

### STRICTLY INCLUDES:
- **Accumulated user behavior**: Historical interactions that train algorithms
- **Proprietary datasets**: Information that cannot be scraped or bought
- **Self-reinforcing loops**: More users → more data → better product → more users

### STRICTLY EXCLUDES:
- Publicly available data
- One-time data purchases
- **鈫?If discussing how data improves algorithms over time, that's Data. If discussing the algorithm itself, that's Technology.**

### Interview Questions:
- "Does the product get better automatically as more users generate data?"
- "Does the company possess historical data that new entrants cannot access or replicate?"
- "If a competitor launched today with the same features, would they lack the data to match your performance?"


path: references/02_relations.md
content: # Relation Monopoly Interview Guide - DETAILED BOUNDARIES

**CRITICAL**: Each relation has STRICT boundaries. Do NOT mix categories.

---

## 1. Government Relations (与政府机构的关系)

### STRICTLY INCLUDES:
- **Licenses & Permits**: Payment licenses, banking licenses, telecom licenses, gaming licenses
- **Regulatory moats**: Industries where regulation restricts new entrants (tobacco, finance, utilities)
- **State monopolies**: Officially sanctioned monopolies (salt, tobacco, lotteries)
- **Policy protection**: Tax advantages, subsidies, or protections through government relationships
- **Zoning & approvals**: Exclusive rights to operate in certain areas

### STRICTLY EXCLUDES:
- General legal compliance (this is baseline, not a moat)
- **鈫?If discussing payment licenses or regulatory permits, it goes HERE, NOT under Land or Technology.**

### Interview Questions:
- "Does the business require a specific government license that is restricted, expensive, or frozen?"
- "Is the industry protected by state monopoly or heavy regulation that limits competition?"
- "Are there policy barriers that prevent new entrants from competing (e.g., tobacco, finance)?"

---

## 2. Peer/Competitor Relations (与同行的关系)

### STRICTLY INCLUDES:
- **Price alliances**: OPEC-like cartels that control supply and pricing
- **Standard setting**: Industry consortia that set technical standards (Type-C, 5G)
- **Geographic indications**: Protected regional names (Champagne, Scotch)
- **Patent pools**: Cross-licensing agreements among industry players

### STRICTLY EXCLUDES:
- Normal market competition
- General industry associations

### Interview Questions:
- "Is the company part of an alliance that controls industry pricing or supply?"
- "Does the company help set industry standards that others must follow?"
- "Are there geographic or brand protections that the industry collectively enforces?"

---

## 3. Supplier Relations (与供应商的关系)

### STRICTLY INCLUDES:
- **Exclusive supply agreements**: Long-term contracts for scarce materials
- **Bargaining power**: Scale-based discounts that competitors cannot match (Walmart)
- **Vertical integration**: Owning or controlling key suppliers
- **Lock-in mechanisms**: Suppliers dependent on the company for revenue

### STRICTLY EXCLUDES:
- Normal procurement relationships
- Short-term supply contracts
- **鈫?If discussing exclusive access to raw materials through contracts, that's Supplier Relations. If discussing owning the mine itself, that's Land.**

### Interview Questions:
- "Does the company have exclusive, long-term agreements with key upstream suppliers?"
- "Is the company's procurement volume large enough to force supplier discounts?"
- "Would suppliers suffer significantly if they lost the company's business?"

---

## 4. Customer Relations (与客户的关系)

### STRICTLY INCLUDES:
Three mechanisms to lock in customers:

**A. Brand (品牌) - Lowers Decision Cost**
- Premium brand allowing price premiums (Hermes, Maotai)
- High repurchase rates due to brand trust
- Reduced customer decision fatigue

**B. Channel (渠道) - Lowers Purchase Cost**
- Dominant distribution networks (Haitian in gas stations)
- Exclusive retail partnerships
- Direct-to-consumer control

**C. Switching Costs (转换成本) - Raises Exit Cost**
- **Social graphs**: WeChat (your network is here)
- **Data lock-in**: Cloud services, notes, playlists
- **Learning curves**: Complex software (Photoshop, CAD)
- **Membership programs**: Airline status, hotel loyalty
- **Long-term contracts**: SaaS subscriptions, enterprise software

### STRICTLY EXCLUDES:
- One-time transactions
- General customer satisfaction
- **鈫?If discussing why customers stay even when competitors offer lower prices, investigate Switching Costs here.**

### Interview Questions:
- **Brand**: "Can the company charge 20-30% premium solely due to brand reputation?"
- **Channel**: "Is the product available in places competitors cannot access?"
- **Switching Costs**: "If a competitor offered the same product 20% cheaper, what would prevent customers from leaving? What is the actual cost (time, money, risk, social connections) of switching?"

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