Skill: dufu2000/company-investment-research (version 0.3.0)

--- name: company-investment-research description: "Structured, multi-dimensional company investment research framework for AI agents and human analysts. Provides a 10-part checklist (moat, tech, market, customers, growth, financials, geography, governance, valuation, recommendation) to turn scattered info into a consistent, high-quality investment memo. | 面向 AI Agent 与人工分析师的公司投研框架，用 10 大维度系统梳理商业模式、护城河、成长与估值，快速产出结构化投研报告。" --- # Company Investment Research / 公司投资研究框架 This skill provides a systematic framework for conducting comprehensive investment research and due diligence on companies. It structures analysis across 10 critical dimensions to support informed investment decisions. 本技能为公司基本面研究提供一套**结构化投研框架**，覆盖 10 个关键维度，帮助你从零开始梳理一家公司的商业模式、竞争力、增长与估值，并最终形成一份有逻辑的投资结论。 --- ## When to Use / 适用场景 Use this skill when you need to: - Evaluate a company as a potential **investment** (public or late-stage private) - Understand a company's **competitive advantages and moat** vs peers - Produce a **structured investment memo** instead of scattered notes - Compare **two or more companies** in the same sector on a consistent framework 适合在以下场景使用： - 对某家公司做**系统性投研/估值评估**（上市公司或准上市公司） - 想明白它相对于同行的**护城河与竞争地位** - 需要输出一份结构清晰的**投研报告/投资备忘录** - 在同一行业内对比多家公司，希望有**统一的分析模板** --- ## Quick Usage Examples / 快速使用示例 ### 1. Single-company deep dive / 单公司深度研究 > "Analyze NVIDIA (NVDA) as an investment using the company-investment-research framework. Follow all 10 dimensions and end with a clear BUY/HOLD/SELL view, including key risks." > 「请基于 `company-investment-research` 投研框架，系统分析英伟达（NVIDIA, NVDA）的投资价值，按 10 个维度展开，最后给出 BUY/HOLD/SELL 判断，并列出关键风险。」 ### 2. Compare two companies in the same sector / 同行业公司对比 > "Using the company-investment-research skill, compare NVIDIA vs AMD as AI infrastructure investments. Highlight differences in moat, growth drivers, and valuation, then state which one looks more attractive on a 3–5 year horizon and why." > 「使用该投研框架对比分析 NVIDIA 与 AMD 作为 AI 基础设施投资标的的优劣，从护城河、成长驱动、估值三方面重点展开，并给出未来 3–5 年哪个更具吸引力及原因。」 ### 3. Rapid pre-screening / 快速预筛选 > "Run a lightweight version of the company-investment-research framework on Snowflake. Focus on competitive positioning, growth drivers, and valuation to decide whether it deserves full deep-dive research." > 「对 Snowflake 做一版简化版投研：重点看竞争地位、成长驱动和估值，判断是否值得投入时间做完整深度研究。」 ### 4. Memo generation for internal discussion / 生成内部讨论用 Memo > "Create a 2–3 page investment memo for Tesla using the company-investment-research structure. The target audience is an investment committee; keep language concise but include key numbers and scenarios (base/bull/bear)." > 「按照本框架，为特斯拉生成一份 2–3 页的投资备忘录，供投委会讨论使用：语言简洁，但需包含核心数据与基础/乐观/悲观三种情景。」 --- ## Industry Templates / 行业模板示例 Below are **add-on checklists** for specific industries. Use them on top of the 10 core dimensions. 下面是针对特定行业的**额外检查项**，在 10 大通用维度基础上叠加使用即可。 ### A. Internet Platforms (Consumer Internet) / 互联网平台 **Typical businesses / 典型业务：** 内容平台、电商、社交、短视频、本地生活等。 **Extra focus areas / 额外关注点：** - **User metrics / 用户指标** - MAU/DAU 走势、渗透率、区域分布 - 用户结构（核心用户 vs 长尾用户） - **Engagement & retention / 使用粘性与留存** - 人均使用时长、留存（7 日 / 30 日 / 12 个月） - 用户生命周期路径（拉新→激活→留存→复购/付费） - **Monetization model / 变现模式** - 广告 / 订阅 / 交易抽佣 / 增值服务 - ARPU、付费率、广告负载（广告占用用户时间的比例） - **Unit economics / 单位经济模型** - CAC（获客成本）、LTV、回本周期 - 不同渠道/城市/品类的获客效率差异 **Additional questions / 可直接提问的附加问题：** - What are the key user cohorts and how do their retention/ARPU differ? - How does the company balance growth vs profitability (e.g., marketing spend intensity)? - What regulatory risks exist around data privacy, content moderation, or platform power? > Prompt 示例： > 「针对某互联网平台公司，在 10 大维度基础上，额外重点分析用户增长 & 留存、变现模式与单位经济模型，并结合监管风险给出中长期盈利能力判断。」 --- ### B. Semiconductors / 半导体 **Typical businesses / 典型业务：** GPU/CPU/ASIC 设计、晶圆制造（Foundry）、封装测试、设备与材料等。 **Extra focus areas / 额外关注点：** - **Position in the value chain / 产业链位置** - Fabless（无晶圆设计）、IDM、一体化厂商、Foundry（代工）、OSAT（封测）、设备/材料 - 上游/下游依赖关系 - **Technology node & roadmap / 工艺节点与技术路线** - 制程节点（3nm/5nm/7nm/成熟制程） - 关键产品的性能/功耗/成本相对优势 - 与主要代工厂（如 TSMC/Samsung）的绑定深度与议价力 - **End markets & demand drivers / 下游应用与需求驱动** - 智能手机、PC、数据中心、汽车电子、工业、IoT 等占比 - 周期性 vs 结构性需求（如 AI、汽车电子的渗透提升） - **Capacity & supply constraints / 产能与供给约束** - 产能利用率、扩产/资本开支计划 - 上游瓶颈（设备交付、材料供应） **Additional questions / 可直接提问的附加问题：** - Which part of the semiconductor value chain does the company dominate, and how cyclical is that segment? - How exposed is the company to AI, automotive, or other structural growth drivers? - What are the key supply chain/geopolitical risks (export controls, tariffs, onshoring)? > Prompt 示例： > 「针对某半导体公司，在 10 大维度基础上，重点补充其在产业链中的位置、主要下游应用结构、工艺/产品路线图以及 AI/汽车电子等结构性需求的暴露度，并评估地缘政治对其业务的潜在影响。」 --- ### C. Chain Coffee & Food Service / 连锁咖啡与餐饮服务 **Typical businesses / 典型业务：** 连锁咖啡品牌、连锁茶饮、快餐/休闲餐厅品牌等。 **Extra focus areas / 额外关注点：** - **Store economics / 单店模型** - 单店投资额、回本周期 - 单店收入结构（堂食/外卖/零售）、毛利率 - 不同城市/商圈/模型（街边店、商场店、写字楼店）的差异 - **Same-store sales & expansion / 同店增长与扩店节奏** - 同店销售增长（SSS）走势 - 开店与关店节奏，新店 vs 老店贡献 - 是否存在“激进开店 → 同店下滑 → 关店潮”的风险 - **Brand & customer perception / 品牌力与消费者心智** - 品牌定位（高端 / 大众 / 性价比） - 核心产品力（咖啡/饮品/食品）与价格带 - 用户复购率、会员体系、社交媒体口碑 - **Supply chain & cost structure / 供应链与成本结构** - 原材料成本（咖啡豆、乳制品、辅料）、人工、租金占比 - 集中采购与议价能力 - 食品安全与供应链稳定性 **Additional questions / 可直接提问的附加问题：** - What does a typical store P&L look like (revenue, gross margin, fixed costs)? - How sustainable is the pace of new store openings without diluting unit economics? - How sensitive is the business to macro factors (consumer confidence, rent, raw material prices)? > Prompt 示例： > 「针对某连锁咖啡品牌，在 10 大通用维度基础上，重点拆解单店经济模型（投资额、回本周期、毛利结构）、同店增长与扩店策略、品牌定位与复购率，并评估在不同经济周期下的抗压能力。」 --- ## Research Framework / 研究框架 When analyzing a company for investment, follow this structured approach to ensure comprehensive coverage: 在分析一家公司时，建议按以下 10 个维度逐一梳理，避免遗漏关键点： ### 1. Competitive Positioning Analysis / 竞争优势与护城河 **Core Questions:** - What are the company's core competitive advantages compared to rivals? - What is the company's economic moat? (network effects, switching costs, cost advantages, intangible assets, scale) - How sustainable and defensible is this moat? **Search Strategy:** - Search for "[Company] competitive advantages moat" - Search for "[Company] vs [Top Competitor] comparison" - Look for industry analyst reports on competitive landscape **Analysis Approach:** - Identify unique value propositions - Evaluate barriers to entry - Assess competitive intensity using Porter's Five Forces framework - Determine moat width (narrow/wide) and durability (temporary/enduring) ### 2. Technology & Innovation Assessment / 技术与研发能力 **Core Questions:** - How large is the technology/R&D team? - How many patents does the company hold? Any key patents? - What is the R&D expense ratio (R&D/Revenue)? - What are the core technological advantages? **Search Strategy:** - Search for "[Company] R&D spending annual report" - Search for "[Company] patents technology" - Search for "[Company] innovation pipeline" - Check company's latest 10-K/annual report for R&D headcount **Key Metrics:** - R&D headcount and growth trend - Patent portfolio size and quality - R&D intensity (industry benchmark comparison) - Technology leadership indicators ### 3. Market Position & Competition / 市场份额与竞争格局 **Core Questions:** - What is the market share in primary markets? - What is the industry ranking (top 3, top 5, etc.)? - Who are the main competitors? - How is market share trending? **Search Strategy:** - Search for "[Industry] market share [Year]" - Search for "[Company] market position ranking" - Search for "[Company] competitors landscape" **Analysis Framework:** - Market share % and rank - Competitive landscape mapping - Market concentration (HHI index if available) - Competitive dynamics and threats ### 4. Customer Analysis / 客户结构与集中度 **Core Questions:** - Who are the largest customers? - What is customer concentration (top 5/10 customers as % of revenue)? - What is customer diversification across industries/geographies? - What is customer retention rate? **Search Strategy:** - Search for "[Company] major customers annual report" - Search for "[Company] customer concentration risk" - Review 10-K risk factors section **Risk Assessment:** - High concentration (>20% from single customer) = significant risk - Diversified customer base = lower risk - Long-term contracts and relationships = positive indicator ### 5. Growth Trajectory & New Opportunities / 成长路径与新机会 **Core Questions:** - What is the current growth profile? - What are new growth drivers/initiatives? - Are there new markets, products, or business lines emerging? - What is total addressable market (TAM) expansion potential? **Search Strategy:** - Search for "[Company] growth strategy new products" - Search for "[Company] expansion plans" - Search for "[Company] TAM total addressable market" **Evaluation Criteria:** - Organic vs. inorganic growth - New product/service pipeline - Market expansion opportunities (geographic, vertical) - Scalability of growth drivers ### 6. Historical & Projected Financials / 历史与预测财务 **Core Questions:** - Revenue and profit growth over past 5 years (CAGR) - What drives the historical growth? - Consensus forecast for next 2-5 years? - Key assumptions underlying projections? **Search Strategy:** - Search for "[Company] revenue profit historical data" - Search for "[Company] analyst estimates forecast" - Access latest earnings transcripts and guidance **Analysis Components:** - Calculate 5-year revenue CAGR - Calculate 5-year profit (net income/EBITDA) CAGR - Analyze margin trends - Review consensus estimates and evaluate reasonableness - Create base/bull/bear case scenarios ### 7. International Exposure / 海外业务与地缘风险 **Core Questions:** - What percentage of revenue comes from overseas? - Which countries/regions are primary international markets? - What are international growth trends? - What are geopolitical or currency risks? **Search Strategy:** - Search for "[Company] geographic revenue breakdown" - Search for "[Company] international expansion" - Review segment reporting in annual reports **Key Considerations:** - Revenue by geography (domestic vs. international split) - Exposure to high-growth emerging markets - Currency hedging strategies - Regulatory and geopolitical risks ### 8. Ownership & Governance / 股权结构与公司治理 **Core Questions:** - Who is the founder/CEO? What is their background? - What is the ownership structure (founder/management/institutional/public)? - Are there any significant insider transactions? - What is the board composition and quality? **Search Strategy:** - Search for "[Company] founder CEO background" - Search for "[Company] ownership structure institutional holders" - Search for "[Company] insider transactions recent" **Governance Assessment:** - Founder/management ownership alignment - Track record of leadership team - Board independence and expertise - Corporate governance ratings ### 9. Valuation Analysis / 估值分析 **Core Questions:** - Current market capitalization? - Current P/E ratio and comparison to historical averages? - How does valuation compare to peers? - Is the stock trading within a margin of safety? - What is the projected market cap in 2 years based on growth assumptions? **Search Strategy:** - Search for "[Company] stock price market cap" - Search for "[Company] PE ratio valuation multiples" - Search for "[Industry] average PE ratio" **Valuation Framework:** - Current market cap - P/E, P/S, P/B, EV/EBITDA multiples - Compare to 5-year historical average - Compare to peer group median - Calculate intrinsic value range (DCF if appropriate) - Determine margin of safety (typically seek 20-30% discount) - Project forward market cap using growth and multiple assumptions ### 10. Investment Recommendation / 投资结论 **Synthesize all analysis into clear recommendation:** **If Investment is Recommended:** - Primary thesis (2-3 key reasons) - Supporting evidence from analysis above - Expected return and timeframe - Key risks and mitigation factors - Position sizing recommendation **If Investment is NOT Recommended:** - Primary concerns (2-3 key reasons) - Supporting evidence from analysis - What would need to change for positive view - Alternative opportunities in the sector --- ## Output Structure / 推荐输出结构 Present findings in a clear, structured format: ```markdown # Investment Analysis: [Company Name] **Date:** [Current Date] **Analyst:** [Your Name or Agent] ## Executive Summary [2-3 paragraph overview with key takeaway and recommendation] ## 1. Competitive Positioning [Findings] ## 2. Technology & Innovation [Findings] ## 3. Market Position [Findings] ## 4. Customer Base [Findings] ## 5. Growth Analysis [Findings] ## 6. Financial Performance [Findings] ## 7. International Exposure [Findings] ## 8. Ownership & Governance [Findings] ## 9. Valuation [Findings] ## 10. Investment Recommendation **Recommendation:** BUY / HOLD / SELL **Target Price:** [If applicable] **Investment Thesis:** [Key reasons] **Key Risks:** [Main concerns] ``` 建议在实际使用中，将上述结构作为 Markdown 模板，一边研究一边填空，最终沉淀为可复用的投研文档库。 --- ## Research Best Practices / 研究最佳实践 1. **Use Multiple Sources / 多源交叉验证** Cross-reference information from company filings, analyst reports, news, and financial databases. 2. **Verify Timeliness / 确保数据新鲜度** Always check dates on data – use the most recent available information. 3. **Quantify When Possible / 尽量量化** Provide specific numbers, percentages, and metrics rather than only qualitative descriptions. 4. **Acknowledge Limitations / 明确假设与局限** Note when information is unavailable or when making assumptions. 5. **Maintain Objectivity / 保持客观** Present both bullish and bearish perspectives; avoid confirmation bias. 6. **Source Attribution / 标注关键来源** Cite sources for key data points, especially financial figures. --- ## Integrations: Fetching Filings & Financial Data / 集成：自动拉取财报与数据 This skill focuses on **how to think and structure research**. For data and filings, pair it with external tools/APIs. 本技能侧重于**思考框架与结构化输出**，财报与数据建议通过其他工具或脚本获取，然后作为本框架的输入。 ### Example: US-listed companies (e.g., SEC + financial APIs) 示例以美股为主（可按同样思路换成 A 股/港股对应数据源）： - **Download latest 10-K / 10-Q filings** Use any SEC helper tool or script, for example: ```bash # Example: download the latest 10-K for NVIDIA (NVDA) into ./filings sec-edgar-downloader company "NVIDIA" \ --form-type 10-K --num 1 --download-folder ./filings ``` - **Fetch key financials via an API or Python script** For example, a simple Python entry point: ```bash python scripts/fetch_financials.py --ticker NVDA --out data/nvda.json ``` The script can query any financial data provider (Yahoo Finance, financial APIs, etc.) and standardize outputs (revenue, margins, key ratios) for later use in this framework. - **Use web_fetch for qualitative sections** For business descriptions, risk factors, and management discussion, you can: ```text 1. Download the filing (PDF/HTML) 2. Use web_fetch to extract key sections into markdown 3. Feed those into the 10-dimension analysis ``` > 推荐实践：将「数据抓取脚本 + 本投研框架」放在同一项目中，通过 Makefile 或 shell 脚本串联，形成一键跑通的投研流水线（先拉数据，再生成报告草稿）。 --- ## Tool Usage Hints / 工具使用提示 - **web_search:** Primary tool for gathering company information, financial data, and market intelligence. - **web_fetch:** Retrieve full annual reports, investor presentations, and detailed articles for deeper reading. - Use this skill mainly as a **thinking & structuring framework** – pair it with data sources (e.g., financial APIs, filings) for best results.

path: references/analysis-framework.md
content: # Investment Analysis Framework Reference

This document provides detailed frameworks and methodologies for conducting investment research.

## Moat Analysis Framework

### Types of Economic Moats

1. **Network Effects**
   - Value increases as more users join
   - Examples: Payment platforms, social networks, marketplaces
   - Measurement: User growth rate, engagement metrics, retention

2. **Switching Costs**
   - High cost/friction to change to competitor
   - Examples: Enterprise software, banking, healthcare IT
   - Measurement: Customer retention rate, contract lengths, migration complexity

3. **Cost Advantages**
   - Structural cost advantages over competitors
   - Sources: Scale, proprietary process, preferential access
   - Measurement: Gross margin vs peers, unit economics

4. **Intangible Assets**
   - Patents, brands, regulatory licenses, data
   - Examples: Pharmaceuticals, luxury brands, utilities
   - Measurement: Patent portfolio, brand value, regulatory barriers

5. **Efficient Scale**
   - Market only supports one or few profitable firms
   - Examples: Utilities, infrastructure, niche markets
   - Measurement: Market size vs minimum efficient scale

### Moat Assessment Criteria

**Width (Competitive Advantage Period):**
- Narrow: 0-5 years
- Medium: 5-10 years
- Wide: 10+ years

**Trend:**
- Widening: Competitive advantages strengthening
- Stable: Maintaining current position
- Narrowing: Competitive threats increasing

## Financial Analysis Metrics

### Profitability Metrics

- **Gross Margin:** (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue
  - Industry comparison critical
  - Trend indicates pricing power

- **Operating Margin:** Operating Income / Revenue
  - Reflects operational efficiency
  - Target: Above industry median

- **Net Margin:** Net Income / Revenue
  - Bottom-line profitability
  - Watch for one-time items

- **Return on Equity (ROE):** Net Income / Shareholders' Equity
  - Quality of earnings metric
  - Target: >15% for quality companies

- **Return on Invested Capital (ROIC):** NOPAT / Invested Capital
  - Capital efficiency measure
  - Target: ROIC > WACC

### Growth Metrics

- **Revenue CAGR:** Compound annual growth rate
  - 5-year historical vs forward projections
  - Compare to industry and GDP growth

- **EPS Growth:** Earnings per share growth rate
  - Should track or exceed revenue growth
  - Watch for buyback-driven growth

- **Free Cash Flow Growth:** Operating cash flow - CapEx
  - More reliable than earnings
  - Enables dividends, buybacks, debt reduction

### Efficiency Metrics

- **Asset Turnover:** Revenue / Total Assets
  - How efficiently assets generate revenue
  - Higher is better, industry-dependent

- **Inventory Turnover:** COGS / Average Inventory
  - Inventory management efficiency
  - Industry-specific benchmarks

- **Days Sales Outstanding (DSO):** (Accounts Receivable / Revenue) × 365
  - Collection efficiency
  - Lower is better

## Valuation Methodologies

### Relative Valuation

**P/E Ratio (Price-to-Earnings):**
- Current P/E vs historical 5-year average
- Current P/E vs peer group median
- Consider: PEG ratio for growth adjustment

**EV/EBITDA (Enterprise Value to EBITDA):**
- Useful for capital-intensive businesses
- Less affected by capital structure
- Compare to industry median

**P/S Ratio (Price-to-Sales):**
- Useful for high-growth, pre-profit companies
- Less manipulable than earnings
- Industry-specific benchmarks

**P/B Ratio (Price-to-Book):**
- Relevant for asset-heavy businesses
- Banking, real estate sectors
- Target: P/B < 1.5 for value

### Absolute Valuation

**Discounted Cash Flow (DCF):**
1. Project free cash flows (5-10 years)
2. Determine terminal value
3. Select appropriate discount rate (WACC)
4. Calculate present value
5. Apply margin of safety (20-30%)

**Key Inputs:**
- Revenue growth assumptions
- Operating margin assumptions
- Capital expenditure requirements
- Working capital changes
- Terminal growth rate (typically 2-3%)
- Discount rate (WACC typically 8-12%)

### Margin of Safety

**Calculation:**
- Intrinsic Value - Current Price) / Intrinsic Value

**Guidelines:**
- Conservative investors: 30-40% margin
- Moderate investors: 20-30% margin
- Aggressive investors: 10-20% margin

## Growth Analysis Framework

### Growth Drivers Checklist

**Product Innovation:**
- New product pipeline
- R&D productivity (revenue/R&D spend)
- Time to market vs competitors
- Product lifecycle stage

**Market Expansion:**
- Geographic expansion opportunities
- New customer segments
- Market penetration rate
- TAM vs current revenue

**Pricing Power:**
- Historical pricing trends
- Pass-through of cost increases
- Premium vs discount positioning
- Brand strength

**M&A Activity:**
- Acquisition track record
- Integration success rate
- ROI on acquisitions
- Pipeline opportunities

### Sustainability Assessment

**Ask:**
- Is growth organic or acquisition-driven?
- Are margins expanding or contracting with growth?
- Is growth capital-efficient (low CapEx/Revenue)?
- Can competitors easily replicate?

## Risk Assessment Framework

### Risk Categories

**Business Risks:**
- Customer concentration
- Supplier dependence
- Technology obsolescence
- Regulatory changes
- Competitive intensity

**Financial Risks:**
- Leverage (Debt/EBITDA > 3x concerning)
- Interest coverage (EBIT/Interest < 3x concerning)
- Liquidity (Current ratio < 1.5 concerning)
- Covenant compliance

**Management Risks:**
- Track record
- Compensation alignment
- Related party transactions
- Communication transparency

**Market Risks:**
- Cyclicality
- Currency exposure
- Commodity exposure
- Geographic concentration

### Red Flags

- Declining gross margins
- Revenue growth without cash flow growth
- Frequent accounting changes
- High executive turnover
- Aggressive accounting policies
- Large goodwill/intangibles (>40% assets)
- Persistent working capital increases
- Serial acquisitions without integration success

## Investment Decision Framework

### BUY Criteria
1. Strong competitive moat (wide and widening)
2. Capable management with aligned interests
3. Growth runway of 5+ years
4. ROIC > 15% and > WACC
5. Trading at 20%+ discount to intrinsic value
6. Limited downside risks
7. Positive industry tailwinds

### HOLD Criteria
1. Fairly valued (±10% of intrinsic value)
2. Maintaining competitive position
3. Moderate growth prospects
4. No material deterioration in fundamentals
5. Portfolio diversification benefits

### SELL Criteria
1. Overvalued (>20% above intrinsic value)
2. Moat deteriorating
3. Fundamental business deterioration
4. Better opportunities available
5. Original investment thesis invalidated
6. Risk profile materially increased

## Industry-Specific Considerations

### Technology
- Focus: R&D intensity, patent quality, developer ecosystem
- Key metrics: ARR, net retention, gross margin
- Risks: Rapid obsolescence, competition

### Consumer
- Focus: Brand strength, customer loyalty, pricing power
- Key metrics: Same-store sales, market share, brand value
- Risks: Consumer sentiment, competition, regulation

### Healthcare
- Focus: Pipeline, patent cliff, regulatory approval
- Key metrics: R&D productivity, drug portfolio, patent life
- Risks: Regulatory, pricing pressure, patent expiry

### Financials
- Focus: Asset quality, capital adequacy, loan portfolio
- Key metrics: ROE, NPL ratio, capital ratios, NIM
- Risks: Credit quality, interest rate, regulation

### Industrials
- Focus: Order backlog, cycle position, operational leverage
- Key metrics: ROIC, margin trajectory, capacity utilization
- Risks: Cyclicality, commodity prices, competition


path: references/report-template.md
content: # Investment Research Report Template

Use this template structure when creating formal investment research reports.

---

# Investment Analysis: [COMPANY NAME]
**Ticker:** [SYMBOL] | **Sector:** [SECTOR] | **Industry:** [INDUSTRY]

**Date:** [DATE]  
**Analyst:** Claude Investment Research

---

## Executive Summary

**Investment Recommendation:** [BUY / HOLD / SELL]  
**Target Price (24 months):** [PRICE] ([X]% upside/downside)  
**Current Price:** [PRICE] | **Market Cap:** [VALUE]

### Investment Thesis
[2-3 concise paragraphs summarizing:
- Core investment rationale
- Key value drivers
- Primary risks
- Expected catalyst timeline]

### Key Metrics Summary

| Metric | Current | 5Y Avg | Industry | Assessment |
|--------|---------|--------|----------|------------|
| P/E Ratio | X | X | X | [Over/Under/Fair] |
| Revenue Growth (CAGR) | X% | X% | X% | [Strong/Moderate/Weak] |
| Operating Margin | X% | X% | X% | [Above/Below] |
| ROIC | X% | X% | - | [Excellent/Good/Poor] |
| Debt/EBITDA | Xx | Xx | - | [Low/Moderate/High] |

---

## 1. Competitive Positioning

### Core Competitive Advantages
- **[Advantage 1]:** [Description and evidence]
- **[Advantage 2]:** [Description and evidence]
- **[Advantage 3]:** [Description and evidence]

### Economic Moat Assessment
**Moat Type:** [Network Effects / Switching Costs / Cost Advantage / Intangible Assets / Efficient Scale]  
**Moat Width:** [Narrow / Medium / Wide]  
**Moat Trend:** [Widening / Stable / Narrowing]

**Analysis:** [Detailed assessment of sustainability and defensibility]

### Competitive Landscape
**Key Competitors:**
1. [Competitor 1] - [Market position and comparison]
2. [Competitor 2] - [Market position and comparison]
3. [Competitor 3] - [Market position and comparison]

**Competitive Intensity:** [Low / Moderate / High]  
**Assessment:** [How company compares to competitors]

---

## 2. Technology & Innovation

### R&D Capabilities
- **R&D Team Size:** [Number] employees ([X]% of total workforce)
- **R&D Expenditure:** $[Amount] ([X]% of revenue)
- **Industry R&D Intensity:** [X]% (comparison)

### Intellectual Property
- **Patent Portfolio:** [Number] patents
- **Key Patents:** [List critical patents and expiration dates]
- **Patent Quality:** [Assessment of patent strength and breadth]

### Technology Advantages
[Detailed analysis of technological differentiation and innovation pipeline]

**Technology Risk Assessment:** [Low / Moderate / High]

---

## 3. Market Position & Competition

### Market Share Analysis
- **Primary Market:** [X]% market share (Rank #[X])
- **Secondary Markets:** [Details if applicable]
- **Market Share Trend:** [Growing / Stable / Declining]

### Industry Structure
- **Market Size:** $[Amount] ([Growth Rate]% CAGR)
- **Market Concentration:** [Fragmented / Moderately Concentrated / Highly Concentrated]
- **Competitive Dynamics:** [Analysis]

### Strategic Positioning
[Analysis of market position sustainability and competitive threats]

---

## 4. Customer Analysis

### Customer Composition
**Top Customers:**
- Customer 1: [X]% of revenue
- Customer 2: [X]% of revenue
- Customer 3: [X]% of revenue

**Customer Concentration:**
- Top 5 Customers: [X]% of revenue
- Top 10 Customers: [X]% of revenue

### Customer Risk Assessment
**Concentration Risk:** [Low / Moderate / High]  
**Customer Retention:** [X]% annual retention rate  
**Customer Relationships:** [Analysis of strength and durability]

---

## 5. Growth Analysis

### Historical Growth Performance

| Metric | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 5Y CAGR |
|--------|------|------|------|------|------|---------|
| Revenue | $X | $X | $X | $X | $X | X% |
| Operating Income | $X | $X | $X | $X | $X | X% |
| Net Income | $X | $X | $X | $X | $X | X% |
| Free Cash Flow | $X | $X | $X | $X | $X | X% |

### Growth Drivers
1. **[Driver 1]:** [Description and impact]
2. **[Driver 2]:** [Description and impact]
3. **[Driver 3]:** [Description and impact]

### New Growth Opportunities
- **New Products/Services:** [Pipeline and timeline]
- **Market Expansion:** [Geographic or segment opportunities]
- **TAM Expansion:** [Addressable market growth potential]

### Growth Sustainability Assessment
[Analysis of whether growth can be maintained or accelerated]

---

## 6. Financial Performance

### Profitability Analysis

**Margins Trend:**
- Gross Margin: [X]% (5Y avg: [X]%)
- Operating Margin: [X]% (5Y avg: [X]%)
- Net Margin: [X]% (5Y avg: [X]%)

**Returns:**
- Return on Equity: [X]% (5Y avg: [X]%)
- Return on Invested Capital: [X]% (Industry: [X]%)

### Capital Efficiency
- Asset Turnover: [X]x
- Working Capital/Revenue: [X]%
- CapEx/Revenue: [X]%

### Financial Projections (Base Case)

| Metric | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|--------|-------|-------|-------|-------|-------|
| Revenue | $X | $X | $X | $X | $X |
| Revenue Growth | X% | X% | X% | X% | X% |
| Operating Margin | X% | X% | X% | X% | X% |
| EPS | $X | $X | $X | $X | $X |

**Key Assumptions:**
- [Assumption 1]
- [Assumption 2]
- [Assumption 3]

---

## 7. International Exposure

### Geographic Revenue Breakdown
- **Domestic:** [X]% of revenue
- **International:** [X]% of revenue
  - Region 1: [X]%
  - Region 2: [X]%
  - Region 3: [X]%

### International Growth Analysis
[Analysis of international market opportunities and trends]

### Geographic Risks
- Currency exposure: [Assessment]
- Regulatory risks: [Assessment]
- Geopolitical risks: [Assessment]

---

## 8. Ownership & Governance

### Leadership
**CEO/Founder:** [Name]
- Background: [Brief bio]
- Tenure: [Years]
- Track Record: [Assessment]

### Ownership Structure
- Founder/Management: [X]%
- Institutional Investors: [X]%
- Public Float: [X]%

**Major Shareholders:**
1. [Shareholder 1]: [X]%
2. [Shareholder 2]: [X]%
3. [Shareholder 3]: [X]%

### Governance Assessment
- Board Independence: [X independent / X total]
- Board Expertise: [Assessment]
- Compensation Alignment: [Assessment]
- Corporate Governance Rating: [If available]

**Governance Quality:** [Strong / Adequate / Weak]

---

## 9. Valuation Analysis

### Current Valuation Metrics

| Multiple | Current | 5Y Avg | Industry Median | Premium/Discount |
|----------|---------|--------|-----------------|------------------|
| P/E | Xx | Xx | Xx | [X]% |
| Forward P/E | Xx | Xx | Xx | [X]% |
| EV/EBITDA | Xx | Xx | Xx | [X]% |
| P/S | Xx | Xx | Xx | [X]% |
| P/B | Xx | Xx | Xx | [X]% |

### Intrinsic Value Estimation

**DCF Valuation:**
- Base Case Fair Value: $[Price]
- Bull Case Fair Value: $[Price]
- Bear Case Fair Value: $[Price]

**Key DCF Assumptions:**
- Revenue Growth: [X]% (Years 1-5), [X]% (Terminal)
- Operating Margin: [X]% (Steady State)
- WACC: [X]%
- Terminal Growth Rate: [X]%

### Valuation Summary
**Weighted Fair Value:** $[Price]  
**Current Price:** $[Price]  
**Margin of Safety:** [X]%

**Valuation Assessment:** [Undervalued / Fairly Valued / Overvalued]

### 24-Month Price Target
**Target Price:** $[Price]  
**Implied Return:** [X]%  
**Expected Catalysts:**
- [Catalyst 1 with timeline]
- [Catalyst 2 with timeline]

---

## 10. Investment Recommendation

### Recommendation: [BUY / HOLD / SELL]

### Investment Thesis

**Reasons to Invest:**
1. **[Reason 1]:** [Detailed explanation with supporting evidence]
2. **[Reason 2]:** [Detailed explanation with supporting evidence]
3. **[Reason 3]:** [Detailed explanation with supporting evidence]

**Expected Return Profile:**
- Base Case Return: [X]% over [timeframe]
- Bull Case Return: [X]% over [timeframe]
- Bear Case Return: [X]% over [timeframe]

### Key Risks

**Primary Concerns:**
1. **[Risk 1]:** [Description and potential impact]
2. **[Risk 2]:** [Description and potential impact]
3. **[Risk 3]:** [Description and potential impact]

**Risk Mitigation:**
- [How risks are being addressed or monitored]

### Alternative Scenario

**If NOT Investing (HOLD/SELL Recommendation):**

**Primary Concerns:**
1. **[Concern 1]:** [Detailed explanation]
2. **[Concern 2]:** [Detailed explanation]
3. **[Concern 3]:** [Detailed explanation]

**What Would Change Our View:**
- [Conditions that would make the investment attractive]

**Alternative Opportunities:**
- [Other companies in sector worth considering]

---

## Catalysts & Timeline

| Catalyst | Timeline | Potential Impact |
|----------|----------|------------------|
| [Event 1] | [Date] | [Positive/Negative/Neutral] |
| [Event 2] | [Date] | [Positive/Negative/Neutral] |
| [Event 3] | [Date] | [Positive/Negative/Neutral] |

---

## Risk/Reward Profile

**Risk Level:** [Low / Moderate / High]  
**Reward Potential:** [Low / Moderate / High]

**Suitable For:** [Conservative / Moderate / Aggressive] investors

---

## Appendix: Data Sources

- Company 10-K/Annual Reports
- Earnings Call Transcripts
- Industry Research Reports
- Financial databases (Bloomberg, FactSet, etc.)
- [Other relevant sources]

---

**Disclaimer:** This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult with financial advisors before making investment decisions.


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: clean | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal: clean | SkillSpector: clean (LOW)