Skill: simmer/polymarket-elon-tweets (version 1.3.5)

--- name: polymarket-elon-tweets description: 'Trade Polymarket "Elon Musk # tweets" markets using XTracker post count data. Buys adjacent range buckets when combined cost < $1 for structural edge. Use when user wants to trade tweet count markets, automate Elon tweet bets, check XTracker stats, or run noovd-style trading.' metadata: author: Simmer (@simmer_markets) version: "1.3.5" displayName: Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader difficulty: advanced attribution: Strategy inspired by @noovd --- # Polymarket Elon Tweet Trader Trade "Elon Musk # tweets" markets on Polymarket using XTracker post count data. > 🚨 **Framework, not a production trading system.** Read [DISCLAIMER.md](./DISCLAIMER.md) before connecting to a wallet with real funds. ## When to Use This Skill Use this skill when the user wants to: - Trade Elon Musk tweet count markets automatically - Set up @noovd-style bucket trading - Check XTracker pace and stats for current tweet events - Monitor and exit existing tweet market positions - Configure bucket spread or entry thresholds ## How the Strategy Works Polymarket runs weekly "How many tweets will Elon post?" events with range buckets (e.g., 200-219, 220-239, 240-259). Exactly one bucket resolves YES = $1. The strategy: 1. **Get XTracker pace** — XTracker tracks Elon's real-time post count and projects the final total 2. **Find center bucket** — The bucket containing XTracker's projected pace 3. **Buy adjacent buckets** — Buy the center + neighbors (configurable spread) 4. **Check combined cost** — Only buy if the sum of bucket prices < $1 (the +EV threshold) 5. **One bucket pays $1** — When the event resolves, one of your buckets pays $1, covering costs ## Setup Flow When user asks to install or configure this skill: 1. **Install the Simmer SDK** ```bash pip install simmer-sdk ``` 2. **Ask for Simmer API key** - They can get it from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab - Store in environment as `SIMMER_API_KEY` 3. **Ask for wallet private key** (required for live trading) - This is the private key for their Polymarket wallet (the wallet that holds USDC) - Store in environment as `WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY` - The SDK uses this to sign orders client-side automatically — no manual signing needed 4. **Ask about settings** (or confirm defaults) - Max bucket sum: Combined price threshold (default 90¢) - Max position: Amount per bucket (default $5.00) - Bucket spread: How many neighbors to buy (default 1 = center ± 1) - Exit threshold: When to sell (default 65¢) 5. **Save settings to config.json or environment variables** 6. **Set up cron** (disabled by default — user must enable scheduling) ## Configuration | Setting | Env Variable | Config Key | Default | Description | |---------|-------------|------------|---------|-------------| | Max bucket sum | `SIMMER_ELON_MAX_BUCKET_SUM` | `max_bucket_sum` | 0.90 | Only buy if cluster prices sum < this | | Max position | `SIMMER_ELON_MAX_POSITION_USD` | `max_position_usd` | 5.00 | Maximum USD per bucket | | Bucket spread | `SIMMER_ELON_BUCKET_SPREAD` | `bucket_spread` | 1 | Neighbors on each side (1 = 3 buckets) | | Smart sizing % | `SIMMER_ELON_SIZING_PCT` | `sizing_pct` | 0.05 | % of balance per trade | | Max trades/run | `SIMMER_ELON_MAX_TRADES_PER_RUN` | `max_trades_per_run` | 6 | Maximum trades per scan cycle | | Exit threshold | `SIMMER_ELON_EXIT_THRESHOLD` | `exit_threshold` | 0.65 | Sell when bucket price above this | | Slippage max | `SIMMER_ELON_SLIPPAGE_BPS` | `slippage_max_bps` | 100 | Skip trade if slippage exceeds this (basis points, e.g. 100 = 1%) | | Min position | `SIMMER_ELON_MIN_POSITION` | `min_position_usd` | 2.00 | Floor for smart sizing (USD) | | Data source | `SIMMER_ELON_DATA_SOURCE` | `data_source` | xtracker | Data source (xtracker) | | Order type | `SIMMER_ELON_ORDER_TYPE` | `order_type` | GTC | Order type: GTC (good-til-cancelled) or FAK (fill-and-kill) | Config priority: config.json > environment variables > defaults. ## Quick Commands ```bash # Check account balance and positions python scripts/status.py # Detailed position list python scripts/status.py --positions ``` **API Reference:** - Base URL: `https://api.simmer.markets` - Auth: `Authorization: Bearer $SIMMER_API_KEY` - Portfolio: `GET /api/sdk/portfolio` - Positions: `GET /api/sdk/positions` ## Running the Skill ```bash # Dry run (default — shows opportunities, no trades) python elon_tweets.py # Execute real trades python elon_tweets.py --live # With smart position sizing (uses portfolio balance) python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing # Show XTracker stats only python elon_tweets.py --stats # Check positions only python elon_tweets.py --positions # View config python elon_tweets.py --config # Update config python elon_tweets.py --set max_position_usd=10.00 # Disable safeguards (not recommended) python elon_tweets.py --no-safeguards # Quiet mode — only output on trades/errors (ideal for cron) python elon_tweets.py --live --quiet # Combine: frequent scanning, minimal noise python elon_tweets.py --live --smart-sizing --quiet ``` ## How It Works Each cycle the script: 1. Fetches active XTracker trackings for Elon Musk tweet events 2. Gets real-time stats: current count, projected pace, days remaining 3. Searches Simmer for matching tweet count markets (auto-imports if missing) 4. Finds the bucket matching XTracker's pace projection 5. Evaluates adjacent buckets (center ± spread) 6. **Entry**: If sum of cluster prices < max_bucket_sum → BUY each bucket 7. **Exit**: Checks open positions, sells if any bucket price > exit_threshold 8. **Safeguards**: Checks context for flip-flop warnings, slippage 9. **Tagging**: All trades tagged with `sdk:elon-tweets` for tracking ## Auto-Import If tweet count markets aren't on Simmer yet, the skill automatically imports them: - Derives the Polymarket event URL from the XTracker tracking title - Uses the SDK import endpoint (supports multi-outcome events) - Imports all outcome buckets as a group - Counts as 1 daily import regardless of bucket count ## Smart Sizing With `--smart-sizing`, position size is calculated as: - 5% of available USDC balance (configurable via `sizing_pct`) - Capped at max position setting ($5.00 default) - Falls back to fixed size if portfolio unavailable ## Safeguards Before trading, the skill checks: - **Flip-flop warning**: Skips if you've been reversing too much - **Slippage**: Skips if estimated slippage > 15% - **Market status**: Skips closed or resolved markets - **Extreme prices**: Skips buckets priced > 98% or < 2% Disable with `--no-safeguards` (not recommended). ## Source Tagging All trades are tagged with `source: "sdk:elon-tweets"`. This means: - Portfolio shows breakdown by strategy - Other skills won't sell your tweet positions - You can track tweet trading P&L separately ## Example Output ``` 🐦 Simmer Elon Tweet Trader ================================================== ⚙️ Configuration: Max bucket sum: $0.90 Max position: $5.00 Bucket spread: 1 (center ± 1 = 3 buckets) Exit threshold: 65% Data source: xtracker 📊 XTracker Stats: Tracking: Elon Musk # tweets Feb 13 - Feb 20 Current count: 187 posts Pace: 243 projected Days remaining: 2.3 🎯 Target cluster: 240-259 (center) + 220-239, 260-279 240-259: $0.35 220-239: $0.22 260-279: $0.18 Cluster sum: $0.75 (< $0.90 threshold) ✅ Executing trades... ✅ Bought 14.3 shares of 240-259 @ $0.35 ✅ Bought 22.7 shares of 220-239 @ $0.22 ✅ Bought 27.8 shares of 260-279 @ $0.18 📊 Summary: Events scanned: 2 Clusters evaluated: 2 Trades executed: 3 Exits: 0 ``` ## Troubleshooting **"No XTracker trackings found"** - XTracker may not have active Elon tweet events - New events usually start on Wednesdays/Thursdays **"Cluster sum $X.XX exceeds threshold"** - Buckets are too expensive — edge is too thin - Wait for prices to drop or widen bucket_spread **"No matching Simmer markets found"** - Markets may not be imported yet — skill will auto-import on next run - Check that your API key has import capacity (10/day free, 50/day Pro) **"Safeguard blocked: flip-flop warning"** - You've been changing direction too much on this market - Wait before trading again **"External wallet requires a pre-signed order"** - `WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY` is not set in the environment - The SDK signs orders automatically when this env var is present — no manual signing code needed - Fix: `export WALLET_PRIVATE_KEY=0x<your-polymarket-wallet-private-key>` - Do NOT attempt to sign orders manually or modify the skill code — the SDK handles it **"Balance shows $0 but I have funds on Polygon"** - Polymarket V2 (live 2026-04-28) uses **pUSD** (PolyUSD, 1:1 backed by USDC.e). If your wallet holds USDC.e, migrate at [simmer.markets/dashboard](https://simmer.markets/dashboard) with one click (~30s) - If you bridged native USDC (Circle), swap to USDC.e first, then migrate to pUSD - Full migration guide: [docs.simmer.markets/v2-migration](https://docs.simmer.markets/v2-migration) **"API key invalid"** - Get new key from simmer.markets/dashboard → SDK tab


Security scan verdicts — ClawScan: suspicious | static analysis: clean | VirusTotal:  | SkillSpector: suspicious (CRITICAL)