Skill: djdyll/polymarket-eth-midcandle (version 1.1.1)

--- name: polymarket-eth-midcandle description: "ETH Mid-Candle Scalper — 77%+ win rate on Polymarket ETH 15-minute markets. Enters mid-candle (2–12 min remaining) when ETH intracandle momentum is confirmed AND BTC is aligned. The BTC alignment gate is the secret sauce — it filters out noise trades where ETH is fighting the broader crypto trend. Fully configurable: tune momentum threshold, volume ratio, entry price window, and BTC gate to find your edge. Proven on real money. Use when you want the highest-WR crypto scalper running 24/7 on Polymarket." metadata: author: "DjDyll" version: "1.1.1" displayName: "ETH Mid-Candle Scalper" difficulty: "intermediate" --- # ETH Mid-Candle Scalper 🔥 > **77%+ win rate. Real money. 400+ trades.** > ETH's 15-minute markets are even more profitable than BTC's — if you know when to enter. This strategy does. The BTC alignment gate alone filters out a third of losing trades. Battle-tested, configurable, and running 24/7. > **This is a template.** The default signal is mid-candle ETH momentum from Binance klines, filtered by BTC cross-asset alignment — > remix it with your own data sources, alternate confirmation signals, or additional asset gates. > The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, BTC/ETH data fetching, execution, safeguards). > Your tuning provides the alpha. --- ## What It Does ETH Up/Down markets on Polymarket close every 15 minutes. This strategy waits until the candle has shown its hand — typically 2–12 minutes remaining — and only enters when: 1. **ETH momentum is clear:** 5m and 3m price change both agree on direction 2. **BTC agrees:** BTC isn't moving hard against you (cross-asset alignment check) 3. **Volume confirms:** The move is backed by real activity, not noise 4. **Entry price is fair:** Not too cheap (contrarian) or too expensive (overpriced) **Why BTC alignment matters:** ETH and BTC are heavily correlated. When ETH is signaling UP but BTC is dumping 0.3%, you're fighting the tide — and you'll lose. The BTC gate eliminates that class of trade entirely. **The result:** 77%+ win rate on real money. Out of the box. > ⚠️ **Important:** The defaults are calibrated to produce edge, but **you need to tune them**. Different account sizes, different risk tolerances, different times of day all affect optimal settings. The tuning guide below tells you exactly what to adjust and why. A tuned strategy beats a default strategy every time. --- ## Setup ### 1. Install ```bash clawhub install polymarket-eth-midcandle ``` Set your API key: ```bash export SIMMER_API_KEY=sk_live_your_key_here ``` ### 2. Configure your agent ID ```bash python eth_midcandle.py --set poly_agent_id=your_agent_id_here ``` Find your agent ID at **simmer.markets/dashboard → Agents**. ### 3. Paper trade first ```bash python eth_midcandle.py ``` You'll see `[PAPER MODE]` — no real money. Run this for at least a day to understand when it fires and why. ### 4. Go live ```bash python eth_midcandle.py --live ``` ### 5. Set up cron ```bash crontab -e ``` Add: ``` 3,8,13,18,23,28,33,38,43,48,53,58 * * * * cd /path/to/skill && python eth_midcandle.py --live >> /var/log/eth-midcandle.log 2>&1 ``` Runs every 5 minutes, staggered for best execution timing. --- ## Configuration ```bash python eth_midcandle.py --config python eth_midcandle.py --set momentum_threshold=0.0012 ``` | Parameter | Env Var | Default | Description | |-----------|---------|---------|-------------| | `poly_agent_id` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_AGENT_ID` | — | Your Polymarket agent ID (required) | | `bet_size` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_BET_SIZE` | `5.0` | USDC per trade | | `momentum_threshold` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_THRESHOLD` | `0.0012` | Min 5m ETH price change (0.12%) | | `btc_gate_threshold` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_BTC_GATE` | `0.0015` | BTC move required to veto trade (0.15%) | | `min_volume_ratio` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_VOL_RATIO` | `1.1` | Volume vs 2h avg (0 = disabled) | | `min_entry_price` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_MIN_ENTRY` | `0.45` | Min entry price per side | | `max_entry_price` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_MAX_ENTRY` | `0.65` | Max entry price per side | | `enable_1m_confirm` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_1M_CONFIRM` | `false` | Require 1m candle to confirm direction | | `skip_hours` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_SKIP_HOURS` | `13,17` | UTC hours to skip (historically poor WR) | | `discord_webhook` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_WEBHOOK` | `""` | Discord alert webhook (optional) | | `max_position_usd` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_MAX_POS` | `50.0` | Max USDC per trade when using `--smart-sizing` | | `sizing_pct` | `SIMMER_ETHMC_SIZING_PCT` | `0.03` | Portfolio % per trade when using `--smart-sizing` (3%) | > ⚠️ **SKIP HOURS — READ THIS BEFORE TRADING** > > By default, the strategy **skips hour 13 UTC (9am ET) and hour 17 UTC (1pm ET)**. These hours have a historically poor ETH midcandle win rate — **sub-45%**, meaning you lose money on average. > > - **Hour 13 UTC (9am ET):** NY open volatility makes ETH momentum signals unreliable. Sharp reversals are common. > - **Hour 17 UTC (1pm ET):** Post-lunch chop. Random, low-conviction price action that fakes out momentum signals. > > **Do NOT remove these skip hours** unless you have your own data (50+ trades minimum) showing profitability during those hours. The default skip list exists because real money was lost learning this lesson. > > To modify: `python eth_midcandle.py --set skip_hours=13,17,21` (add hours) or `--set skip_hours=` (disable — not recommended). --- ## Tuning Guide > The defaults work. Tuning makes them work better for you specifically. ### Momentum threshold (`momentum_threshold`) How much ETH must move in 5 minutes before you enter. - **Lower (0.0008–0.0012):** More trades. Good when ETH is in a clear trend. - **Higher (0.0018–0.0025):** Only trade strong moves. Better in choppy or sideways conditions. - **Start at default (0.0012)** and only adjust after 50+ paper trades. ### BTC alignment gate (`btc_gate_threshold`) The BTC 5m move that triggers a veto. - **Lower (0.0010):** Stricter BTC filter — vetoes more trades when BTC wiggles - **Higher (0.0020–0.0025):** Only veto when BTC is moving hard — allows more ETH-independent trades - **Default (0.0015)** is the sweet spot: vetoes divergent trades without over-filtering ### Volume ratio (`min_volume_ratio`) Filters low-volume moves that tend to reverse. - **0 (disabled):** Pure momentum, no volume filter - **1.1 (default):** Trade when volume is 10% above the 2-hour average - **1.5+:** High-conviction only. Fewer trades, stronger confirmation ### Entry price window - **Too cheap (<0.40):** You're fading the crowd — usually wrong - **Too expensive (>0.70):** Limited upside relative to risk - **Default 0.45–0.65:** Balanced. You can tighten to 0.50–0.60 for higher precision at cost of volume ### 1m confirmation (`enable_1m_confirm`) — **OFF by default** Adds a final gate: the last 1-minute candle must agree with your trade direction. - **Disabled (default):** More trades, baseline win rate - **Enabled:** Meaningful reduction in false signals — especially useful during London/NY open volatility > 💡 **Tip:** Enable `1m_confirm` after your first week of paper trading. Most users see their win rate tick up 2–4% with it on. ### Skip hours (`skip_hours`) UTC hours with historically poor ETH midcandle win rate. Defaults are `13,17`. - Hour 13 UTC (9am ET): NY open volatility makes momentum signals unreliable - Hour 17 UTC (1pm ET): Post-lunch chop, random price action - Only remove these if you have enough personal data showing otherwise --- ## Commands ```bash python eth_midcandle.py # Paper trade python eth_midcandle.py --live # Real trades python eth_midcandle.py --positions # Open positions python eth_midcandle.py --config # Current config python eth_midcandle.py --smart-sizing # Size by portfolio % python eth_midcandle.py --no-safeguards # Skip flip-flop/slippage checks python eth_midcandle.py --set momentum_threshold=0.0010 ``` --- ## Example Output ``` ============================================================ 🔴 LIVE: ETH Mid-Candle Scalper — 2026-03-15 22:18 UTC ============================================================ ⏰ Candle :15 | 7 min remaining | ✅ In window 📊 Volume: 1.34x ✅ 📈 ETH Momentum: up | 5m: +0.1543% | 3m: +0.0821% 1m: up (+0.0412%) — gate disabled ₿ BTC check: +0.0923% — ✅ aligned 📋 Market: Will ETH go up or down — March 15, 10:15-10:30PM ET? 💲 Entry price: 0.531 (side=yes) 🚀 Placing YES $5.00 — Mid-candle up (7m left): 5m=+0.1543% 3m=+0.0821% vol=1.34x BTC=+0.0923% ✅ Filled: 9.4 YES shares for $5.00 ``` --- ## The BTC Gate — Explained ETH and BTC move together ~80% of the time. When they diverge: - ETH signaling UP while BTC dropping hard → ETH is wrong, BTC leads - ETH signaling DOWN while BTC pumping hard → same problem The BTC gate catches this. Before entering, the strategy checks if BTC moved more than `btc_gate_threshold` in the opposite direction. If it did, the trade is skipped. This single filter is responsible for a significant portion of the win rate improvement over naive ETH momentum strategies. Don't disable it without data. --- ## Remix Ideas - **Funding rate confirmation:** Only trade ETH UP when perpetual funding is positive (longs paying) - **ETH/BTC ratio:** Add a ratio signal — trade ETH when it's outperforming BTC on the ratio - **Options skew:** Skip trades when ETH options put/call ratio is elevated - **On-chain:** Add net exchange flows as a confirmation signal for larger size --- ## Troubleshooting **Firing less than expected?** - Lower `momentum_threshold` to 0.0010 - Check skip hours — maybe you're running during 13h or 17h UTC - Verify your cron is running: `tail -f /var/log/eth-midcandle.log` **Losing more than expected?** - Enable `enable_1m_confirm` — adds a key anti-noise filter - Raise `momentum_threshold` to 0.0018 - Check that `btc_gate_threshold` is set — it should NOT be 0 **"BTC check failed"?** - Binance API timeout — the strategy falls through to neutral (still trades) - If happening regularly, your server may have connectivity issues to Binance **Win rate below 65%?** - You're likely trading the wrong hours — check if hour 13 or 17 UTC is in your logs - Try enabling `enable_1m_confirm` - Run paper mode for a week before re-evaluating


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