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Climate change ‘winners’ and ‘losers’
Megan Cimino and other scientists predict that in decades to come, Adélies could disappear from the western Antarctic Peninsula and nearby islands.

“We’ve already seen one … Adélie colony that went extinct. A few of our other colonies on different islands are very close to extinction,” Cimino said. “We’ll see how long they sort of hold out.”

But in other parts of Antarctica, like Ross Island, thousands of miles away from Palmer Station, researchers have seen Adélies thrive.

Ross Island is closer to the pole and colder than the Antarctic Peninsula — too cold for the gentoo penguins. Here, Adélie populations have largely grown or remained stable over the last two decades, said Grant Ballard, chief science officer at Point Blue Conservation Science, a nonprofit research organization that advocates for conservation.

Ballard describes himself as a “die-hard optimist” — and he thinks warming temperatures in Antarctica could create not just problems, but also new opportunities for penguins.

“There’s going to be places where the ecosystem will thrive and … new life will be emerging,” Ballard said.

Steven Emslie, a biology professor at the University of North Carolina, Wilmington, has found ancient penguin mummies on a coastline near where Ballard does his research. Emslie thinks cooling temperatures hundreds of years ago may have made the place uninhabitable for Adélies — but that might not be the case anymore.
gpt
Adélies could disappear from some areas due to climate change, but survive elsewhere in places that used to be too cold for them.