To address security risks posed by global climate change, and for other purposes.

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

    This Act may be cited as the ``Global Climate Change Security 
Oversight Act''.

SEC. 2. FINDINGS.

    Congress makes the following findings:
            (1) According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 
        Administration, in 2007 the average annual temperature in the 
        United States and around the global is approximately 1.0 degree 
        Fahrenheit warmer than at the start of the 20th century, and 
        the rate of warming has accelerated during the past 30 years, 
        increasing globally since the mid-1970s. The fourth assessment 
        report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has 
        predicted that the Earth will warm 0.72 degrees Fahrenheit 
        during the next 2 decades with current emission trends.
            (2) The annual national security strategy report submitted 
        pursuant to section 108 of the National Security Act of 1947 
        (50 U.S.C. 404a) for 2006 states that the United States faces 
        new security challenges, including ``environmental destruction, 
        whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic mega-disasters 
        such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tsunamis. Problems 
        of this scope may overwhelm the capacity of local authorities 
        to respond, and may even overtax national militaries, requiring 
        a larger international response. These challenges are not 
        traditional national security concerns, such as the conflict of 
        arms or ideologies. But if left unaddressed they can threaten 
        national security.''.
            (3) According to the fourth assessment report of the 
        Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, average temperature 
        increases of between 2 and 4 degrees Celsius over preindustrial 
        levels are projected to cause the sea level to rise by between 
        2 and 4 meters by 2100 due to melting of the Greenland and 
        Antarctic ice sheets.
            (4) In 2007, more than 200,000,000 people live in coastal 
        floodplains around the world and 2,000,000 square kilometers of 
        land and an estimated $1,000,000,000,000 worth of assets are 
        less than a 1-meter elevation above sea level.
            (5) An estimated 1,700,000,000 people in the world live in 
        areas where water is scarce and in 25 years that population is 
        projected to increase to 5,400,000,000. Climate change will 
        impact the hydrological cycle and change the location, time of 
        year, and intensity of water availability.
            (6) The report of the World Health Organization entitled 
        ``The World Health Report 2002: Reducing Risks and Promoting 
        Healthy Life'' states that ``Effects of climate change on human 
        health can be expected to be mediated through complex 
        interactions of physical, ecological, and social factors. These 
        effects will undoubtedly have a greater impact on societies or 
        individuals with scarce resources, where technologies are 
        lacking, and where infrastructure and institutions (such as the 
        health sector) are least able to adapt.''.
            (7) Environmental changes relating to global climate change 
        represent a potentially significant threat multiplier for 
        instability around the world as changing precipitation patterns 
        may exacerbate competition and conflict over agricultural, 
        vegetative, and water resources and displace people, thus 
        increasing hunger and poverty and causing increased pressure on 
        fragile countries.
            (8) The strategic, social, political, and economic 
        consequences of global climate change are likely to have a 
        greater adverse effect on less developed countries with fewer 
        resources and infrastructures that are less able to adjust to 
        new economic and social pressures, and where the margin for 
        governance and survival is thin.
            (9) The consequences of global climate change represent a 
        clear and present danger to the security and economy of the 
        United States.
            (10) A failure to recognize, plan for, and mitigate the 
        strategic, social, political, and economic effects of a 
        changing climate will have an adverse impact on the national 
        security interests of the United States.

SEC. 3. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE.

    (a) Requirement for National Intelligence Estimate.--
            (1) In general.--Except as provided in paragraph (2), not 
        later than 270 days after the date of enactment of this Act, 
        the Director of National Intelligence shall submit to Congress 
        a National Intelligence Estimate on the anticipated 
        geopolitical effects of global climate change and the 
        implications of such effects on the national security of the 
        United States.
            (2) Notice regarding submittal.--If the Director of 
        National Intelligence determines that the National Intelligence 
        Estimate required by paragraph (1) cannot be submitted by the 
        date set out in that paragraph, the Director shall notify 
        Congress and provide--
                    (A) the reasons that the National Intelligence 
                Estimate cannot be submitted by such date; and
                    (B) an estimated date for the submittal of the 
                National Intelligence Estimate.
    (b) Content.--The Director of National Intelligence shall prepare 
the National Intelligence Estimate required by this section using the 
mid-range projections of the fourth assessment report of the 
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change--
            (1) to assess the political, social, agricultural, and 
        economic risks during the 30-year period beginning on the date 
        of enactment of this Act posed by global climate change for 
        countries or regions that are--
                    (A) of strategic economic or military importance to 
                the United States and at risk of significant impact due 
                to global climate change; or
                    (B) at significant risk of large-scale humanitarian 
                suffering with cross-border implications as predicted 
                on the basis of the assessments;
            (2) to assess other risks posed by global climate change, 
        including increased conflict over resources or between ethnic 
        groups, within countries or transnationally, increased 
        displacement or forced migrations of vulnerable populations due 
        to inundation or other causes, increased food insecurity, and 
        increased risks to human health from infectious disease;
            (3) to assess the capabilities of the countries or regions 
        described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of paragraph (1) to 
        respond to adverse impacts caused by global climate change;
            (4) to assess the strategic challenges and opportunities 
        posed to the United States by the risks described in paragraph 
        (1);
            (5) to assess the security implications and opportunities 
        for the United States economy of engaging, or failing to engage 
        successfully, with other leading and emerging major 
        contributors of greenhouse gas emissions in efforts to reduce 
        emissions and adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, 
        including transitioning from reliance upon finite fossil fuels 
        such as imported petroleum and natural gas to clean domestic 
        renewable energy sources; and
            (6) to make recommendations for further assessments of 
        security consequences of global climate change that would 
        improve national security planning.
    (c) Coordination.--In preparing the National Intelligence Estimate 
under this section, the Director of National Intelligence shall consult 
with representatives of the scientific community, including atmospheric 
and climate studies, security studies, conflict studies, economic 
assessments, and environmental security studies, the Secretaries of 
Defense, State, Treasury, Commerce, Energy, Agriculture, and 
Transportation, the Federal Reserve Board, and the United States Trade 
Representative, the Administrator of the National Oceanographic and 
Atmospheric Administration, the Administrator of the National 
Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Administrator of the 
Environmental Protection Agency, and, if appropriate, multilateral 
institutions and allies of the United States that have conducted 
significant research on global climate change.
    (d) Form.--The National Intelligence Estimate required by this 
section shall be submitted in unclassified form, to the extent 
consistent with the protection of intelligence sources and methods, and 
include unclassified key judgments of the National Intelligence 
Estimate. Such National Intelligence Estimate may include a classified 
annex.

SEC. 4. RESPONSE TO THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE.

    (a) Report by the Secretary of Defense.--Not later than 270 days 
after the date that the National Intelligence Estimate required by 
section 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary of Defense shall 
submit to the the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Armed 
Services, and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence of the 
United States House of Representatives and Committee on Appropriations, 
the Committee on Armed Services, and the Select Committee on 
Intelligence of the United States Senate a report on--
            (1) the projected impact on the military installations and 
        capabilities of the United States of the effects of global 
        climate change as assessed in the National Intelligence 
        Estimate;
            (2) the projected impact on United States military 
        operations of the effects of global climate change described in 
        the National Intelligence Estimate; and
            (3) recommended research and analysis needed to further 
        assess the impacts on the military of global climate change.
    (b) Sense of Congress on the Next Quadrennial Defense Review.--It 
is the sense of Congress that the Secretary of Defense should address 
the findings of the National Intelligence Estimate required by section 
3 regarding the impact of global climate change and potential 
implications of such impact on the Armed Forces and for the size, 
composition, and capabilities of Armed Forces in the next Quadrennial 
Defense Review.
    (c) Report by the Secretary of State.--Not later than 270 days 
after the date that the National Intelligence Estimate required by 
section 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary of State shall submit 
to the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Foreign Affairs, 
and the Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence of the United States 
House of Representatives and the Committee on Appropriations, the 
Committee on Foreign Relations, and the Select Committee on 
Intelligence of the United States Senate a report that addresses--
            (1) the potential for large migration flows in countries of 
        strategic interest or humanitarian concern as a response to 
        changes in climate and the implications for United States 
        security interests; and
            (2) the potential for diplomatic opportunities and 
        challenges facing United States policy makers as a result of 
        social, economic, or political responses of groups or nations 
        to global changing climate.

SEC. 5. AUTHORIZATION OF RESEARCH.

    (a) In General.--The Secretary of Defense is authorized to carry 
out research on the impacts of global climate change on military 
operations, doctrine, organization, training, material, logistics, 
personnel, and facilities and the actions needed to address those 
impacts. Such research may include--
            (1) the use of war gaming and other analytical exercises;
            (2) analysis of the implications for United States defense 
        capabilities of large-scale Arctic sea-ice melt and broader 
        changes in Arctic climate;
            (3) analysis of the implications for United States defense 
        capabilities of abrupt climate change;
            (4) analysis of the implications of the findings derived 
        from the National Intelligence Estimate required in section 3 
        Act for United States defense capabilities;
            (5) analysis of the strategic implications for United 
        States defense capabilities of direct physical threats to the 
        United States posed by extreme weather events such as 
        hurricanes; and
            (6) analysis of the existing policies of the Department of 
        Defense to assess the adequacy of the Department's protections 
        against climate risks to United States capabilities and 
        military interests in foreign countries.
    (b) Report.--Not later than 2 years after the date that the 
National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 is submitted to 
Congress, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to Congress a report on 
the results of the research, war games, and other activities carried 
out pursuant to subsection (a).

SEC. 6. AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS.

    There is authorized to be appropriated such sums as may be 
necessary to carry out this Act.

Summary: Global Climate Change Security Oversight Act - Requires the Director of National Intelligence to submit to Congress a National Intelligence Estimate on the anticipated geopolitical effects of global climate change and the implications of such effects on US national security. Requires the Director to prepare the estimate using the mid-range projections of the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change to make assessments and recommendation concerning the risks posed by global warming and the security implications, opportunities, and consequences of global warming. Requires the Secretary of Defense to report to Congress on the projected impact on the military installations, capabilities, and operations of the effects of global climate change as assessed in the estimate and to recommend research and analysis needed to further assess the impacts on the military of global climate change as assessed in the estimate. Expresses the sense of Congress that the Secretary should address the findings of the estimate regarding the impact of global climate change and potential implications of such impact on the Armed Forces and for the size, composition, and capabilities of Armed Forces in the next Quadrennial Defense Review. Requires the Secretary of State to report to Congress on the potential for: (1) large migration flows in countries of strategic interest or humanitarian concern as a response to changes in climate and the implications for US security interests. And (2) diplomatic opportunities and challenges facing US policy makers as a result of social, economic, or political responses of groups or nations to global changing climate. Authorizes the Secretary of Defense to research the impacts of global climate change on military operations, doctrine, organization, training, material, logistics, personnel, and facilities, and the actions needed to address those impacts.