3
(4) It is believed that the opening of the canal will result in a great
increase of trade in the pacific coast ports of South America, and
it might be conjectured that direct trade between those ports and
India will follow. For many reasons this is very unlikely to
happen, but even if there were direct trade between, say, Peru or
Chile and India, the best route would be from Callao and Valpa-
raiso via the Straits of Magellan and the Cape of Good Hope—for
the distance from Valparaiso to Bombay by that route is nearly
4,000 miles shorter than by the trans-pacific route.
Distances, of course, are not the only factors to be considered in attempting
to foretell future trade routes, but in the present case the conclusions to which
their study leads are supported by other considerations, and on the whole it
seems clear that the spread of yellow fever to India, if such happens, will not be
the result of direct trans-pacific shipping to that country from or through the
endemic area in Central and Southern America.
If the same line of enquiry is now applied with regard to ports further east
than India, it will be found that when we get beyond Singapore the conclusions
are, with one important exception, the reverse of those arrived at regarding
India; in general the distances to Japan, China, Australia and the East Indies
will be much shorter by the new route than by the present ones, and for this
reason direct traffic to those countries through and from the endemic area may
be expected. An examination of the columns of the tabular statement which
refer to ports beyond Singapore will make this clear, and in addition it will be
noted that by the new route Yokohama and Australia will be nearer to New York
than to London. The exception is with regard to the distances between Europe
and the countries named above ; it will be seen that for trade between Europe
and those countries the Panama Canal will not provide a shorter route than the
present one by way of the Suez Canal, and this, of course, is important as indi-
cating that the through traffic viá the endemic area to the East will not be so
great as has sometimes been anticipated. If we judge by the factor of distance
alone it is clear from the table that the through traffic to the East by the new
route will be confined to traffic from the United States ; and even as regards
that traffic it must be noted, (a) that the Panama Canal route has to compete
with the routes by way of the trans-continental railways of Canada and the
United States, and the inter-oceanic railways of Mexico, Guatemala and Costa
Rica, (b) that for the trade from New York to Hong Kong the Panama Canal
route will have to compete with the present one viá the Suez Canal, for the gain
in distance is not much more than 200 miles.
Major Tucker, in his paper, suggests that the direct trade between England
and Hong Kong will be greatly facilitated by the opening of the canal, but this
view is not supported by the facts that the new route from London to Hong
Kong will be about 4,400 miles longer than the present one via the Suez Canal,
and will even be about 1,000 miles longer than the route via the Cape of Good
Hope.
It is now justifiable to sum up the conclusions resulting from the above line
of enquiry, by saying that " the new danger to the East" is a direct danger as
far only as Hong Kong, and that the spread of yellow fever to the Straits Settle-
ments and to India, by the route which we have been considering, cannot result
except as a secondary event subsequent to, and consequent upon, the infection
of ports in Japan, China, the East Indies or Australia. This opinion is doubt-
less held by all who have studied the subject, but I do not find that stress is laid
upon it in the articles that I have read; and it seems to me to be of material
importance in connexion with the new danger to which India will be exposed.
The problem of immediate concern, therefore, is the possible spread of
yellow fever, not to India, but to the other countries just named. This problem
has to do both with the conveyance of the disease from, or by way of, the
Panama Canal, and with its conveyance from various Pacific coast ports which
are already in communication with those countries by regular lines of steamships
The latter is the existing problem and it will be convenient to review it before
considering the new problems that will arise from the construction of the Panama
Canal.