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in the price of the food stuffs. Unfortunately, whilst prices give us a good idea of
the degree of general scarcity, they fail to point out to us areas especially affected.
by failure of corps and other adverse conditions, the reason being that there is a
very remarkable averaging process in regard to ruling prices, so that, however
severely one area is affected by shortage of crops, the prices after a brief discre-
pancy tend to level up if the other areas are unaffected,. High prices may even
increase the prosperity of a tract in which crops have been successful.
With this reservation we may compare the average annual rates of the price
of wheat for a number of years with the incidence of fever epidemics.
It will be seen that these annual average prices have risen and fallen in the
course of years almost in a rhythmical manner between a rate of about 10
seers to the rupee and a rate as high as 25 seers for the rupee.
Also we cannot help being struck by the fact that if we take the summit of the
curve in each case it will be found to coincide with an epidemic. Thus the first
curve reached its greatest height in 1869, the second in 1879, the third in 1887, the
fourth in 1892, the fifth in 1897, the sixth in 1900 and the seventh in 1908. This
sequence carried out with such regularity can scarcely be accidental. Also there is
evidently more than mere relation to prices, for that the epidemics should always
occur at the culminating point strongly suggests that it occurred when in a period
of drought and, scarcity a heavy monsoon fell. This would then both cause fever
and, by giving good crops, lower the prices.
We have by association with famines and with the actual summit of the curves
of prices so far accounted for no less than 7 out of the total of twelve or so major
epidemics. Passing along the years and comparing the rises in the seath rates
from fever with prices, we find that the epidemics of 1870, 1872, 1878, 1879, 1881,
1887, 1890, 1892, 1897, 1900 and 1908 were all during periods of markedly high
prices. We see also that some epidemics have occurred. in years of very low prices,.
the years in question being respectively 1875, 1876, 1884, and 1894. 1875 and 1876
will be seen from the rainfall data to have been years of very exceptional rainfall.
Whether local hardship also entered into these years or not I have not been able to
ascertain.¹
1884 was also a year of very heavy precipitation in the affected areas, Umballa
receiving 44 inches and Jagadri 71 inches of monsoon rain. But though the prices
given suggest prosperity, I find the year recorded as one in which the very districts
concerned (Umballa) underwent great hardship owing to the failure of crops.
¹ It is very strange that though the rainfall in 1875 was extraordinarily heavy the epidemic
conditions were slight, whereas in the same area less heavy rain next year caused a severe epidemic. It
would be interesting to trace out the actual facts were one able to do so, as, for example, whether floods in
1875 did not damage crops to such an extent as to bring about local scarcity. Whichever way one looks at
the matter, the year 1876 is quite unique (vide correlations in next section ).