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persons who were exposed to infection in places where plague was at its height,
and many persons who were already incubating plague were unavoidably operated
upon. No information was secured as to the maximum duration of the protection
afforded, but statistics were compiled with reference to a considerable number of
persons showing the number of days which intervened between their inoculation
and attack and the results of their attacks, and these statistics indicate that some
protection was afforded immediately after inoculation, that the protective value
of the operation increased up to three months from the date of inoculation,
and that it lasted even after three months. That the duration of protection
is considerable is evidenced by the facts already mentioned above regarding the
influence on plague in 1901 exercised in Jullundur and Hoahiárpur by inocula-
tions performed during the hot weather of 1900. It should be noticed here that
in the course of all the operations mentioned above no accidents due to the use of
bad fluid came to light. Had there been any such accident it is certain that it
would have been reported, since rumours of the dangers of inoculation were
prevakant and all minor accidents due to it were brought to the notice of
the Medical Officers concerned and in many cases exaggerated. Such minor
accidenis consisted mainly of the formation in a few cases of abscesses at
the seat of inoculation. In one or two cases it was alleged that death had
followed the operation, but in all these cases it was clearly proved that the deaths
were due to plague contracted before inoculation. Any harm caused by the
operation or any reason to belief that it was prejudicial would certainly have been
brought to light. Everywhere, however, the impression of all officers who had
experience of the results of inoculation was very strongly in its favour, and
the people when not already convinced of its value were open to conviction if
a strong effort to press inoculation upon them should be made. In Ambala,
Ferozepore and Gurdáspur inoculation appeared to be in demand, as it was in
Jullundur, where it was dore only on a written application for it ; in Hoshiárpur
and Ludhiána the people were willing to resort to it when plague was severe ; in
Siálkot the people were beginning to understand its advantages ; and in Lahore
also it was remarked that the people would accept it if they were pressed to
do so.
22. Sir Charles Rivaz had before him in the hot weather of 1902 reports
and statistics which put him in possession of the main facts set forth in the
preceding paragraph. Therefore when he considered how Government could
with the greatest hope of success assist the people to combat the outbreak of
1902-03, which he feared would be very severe and widespread, he turned to
inoculation. Other plague measures had failed ; Government was not in a
position to enforce them, and the people were not ready to combine for their
effective adoption ; inoculation was a measure which offered individuals a chance
of protecting themselves even in the absence of combined action ; there was no
other measure by which individuals could so protect themselves ; and there was
good reason to believe that very large numbers would accept without compulsion
inoculation if Government advised them to resort to it and provided them with
adequate facilities for doing so. It was anticipated that inoculation would
restrain plague in the Punjab and decrease the risk of its spread to other parts of
India, and it was believed that it would avert plague attacks from numbers who
would otherwise fall victims to the disease and would save the lives of numbers
even if they were attacked.
It was not expected that inoculation would at once
stamp out plague, but it was hoped that the success of the operations in
1902-03 would render it increasingly easy to deal with outbreaks in succeeding
years, and would confine those outbreaks to constantly narrowing limits. The
Lieutenant-Governor, however, felt that no scheme would be adequate which did
not make it possible to inoculate in advance of plague at least two-thirds oí the
population of the 13 districts in which the disease had taken its firmest hold. It
was calculated that for a scheme of this magnitude 70,000 doses of prophylactic
fluid would be required daily during the period of the operations. The only existing
source of supply was the Plague Research Laboratory at Bombay» and before any
other action was taken the Laboratory authorities were asked if they could supply
the required amount. On the 17th of June the Laboratory authorities gave an
assurance that the amount could be supplied and that special arrangements