63
After the 120th day there were—
"New"
"Old"
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Cases.
5
3
Deaths.
5
...
Mortality in different types.
13. The number of cases and deaths and the
case mortality per cent. in bubonic, pneumonic and
septic plague are given below :—
Bubonic
Pneumonic
Septic
...
...
...
...
...
...
Cases
595
17
73
Deaths
145
14
41
Case mortality.
24.4 per cent.
82.4
„
56.2
„
The bubonic figures are probably fairly accurate ; the others cannot be relied on. The village reporting
agent and the people themselves probably recognize bubonic plague easily enough, but any one but an expert
would be very prone to confuse simple pneumonia occurring in an infected village with pneumonic plague,
and it is also probable that some of the cases of septic plague reported, especially the mild ones, may have
been malarial or other fevers.
The three cases of recoveries in inoculated from pneumonic plague that were reported are likely to be
viewed with scepticism by those who are familiar with the fatality of this disease. They occurred, however, in
villages suffering from that variety of the disease, and, as I shall presently show, an epidemic of pneumonic
plague in a family, some of which have been inoculated, has attacked the uninoculated in preference to the
inoculated, so that we may consider that inoculation confers a certain protection against this variety, and if
protection, why not in some cases a modification resulting in a mild attack.
Incidence of plague in uninoculated and inoculated.
14. As no correct conclusions could possibly be drawn from the total numbers, taking the
district as a whole, the following procedure has been
followed : —
All villages in which a considerable percentage of inoculated have been exposed to plague side by side
with uninoculated have been treated separately to the number of 102.
The figures relating to these villages are epitomised below. Statement No. 4.
In each village the average number of uninoculated and inoculated exposed daily to infection
during the length of the epidemic has been worked out practically on the lines adopted by Captain
E. Wilkinson, I. M. S., in his report on plague and inoculation in the Jullundur and Hoshiárpur Districts ;
but the number of plague cases have not been deducted, as they occurred, from the population, because it
would make the calculation too complicated to deal with in the time available, and the error is small, and is
in favour of the uninoculated.
Another point of error that could not be avoided, which operates very strongly in favour of the
uninoculated, giving too low a percentage, was the flight of large numbers of uninoculated at the beginning of
the epidemic, so that the total population uninoculated is too high, and the percentages too low.
Cases occurring within 3 days of inoculation have been excluded in calculating percentages among
inoculated, on the grounds that they were incubating plague at the time of inoculation or had not come under
the influence of the operation ; on the other hand, these cases have not been used to swell the totals of cases
in uninoculated.
In submitting these figures therefore I think I may assert that the calculations greatly favour the
uninoculated, and that the value of inoculation is computed at the lowest possible figures ; it is certainly not
less than is shown, and probably is much greater.
TOTALS OF STATEMENT NO. 4.
Number of villages examined
Total population of above ...
Total inoculations in above ...
Average duration of epidemic
Average number exposed to
infection daily
Plague in uninoculated
Plague within 3 days
in
inoculated
after 3rd day
Cases
Percentage
Deaths
Ratio of cases in equal number
of uninoculated
Ratio of deaths and inoculated.
...
...
...
...
Uninoculated
Inoculated
Cases ...
Deaths ...
Cases ...
Deaths ...
Cases ...
Deaths ...
Uninoculated
Inoculated
Uninoculated
Inoculated
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
102
161,763
42,380
63 days
130,929
30,834
11,333
6,968
86
60
507
150
8.66
1.94
5.32
49
4 to 1
11 to 1
These figures speak for themselves and should convince the most sceptical of the value of
inoculation.