366
It will be seen that even the most favourable results are unsatisfactory in the
extreme. A mortality of 80 per cent, can in no sense be regarded as a success. I
am not going to discuss how it is that these results point to the native method as more
successful than all others at the Maratha Hospital.
The numerical results, however, stated in Chart A-10, require slight amendment
in two respects. An objection has been raised to the effect that whereas many mori-
bund cases must have been admitted to the hospital, practically none could have had
Bath treatment, whereas they would have received some treatment or other to the
undue advantage of the Bath.
Further it has been stated that the discrepancy in the numerical results can be
thereby explained.
To decide this question a definition of the term " Moribund " is necessary. But
a practical definition must be such that it enables us to decide, in any particular case
whether we have or have not before us a moribund condition. The more one sees of
plague the more convinced one is that such a practical definition cannot be given, and
one is eventually driven to an arbitrary working hypothesis.
Now, before proceeding to lay down such a working hypothesis, let us assume
that the contention is wholly true and that the difference in numbers is, to speak
briefly, due to moribund cases. A simple calculation then shows that of the 1,159
'' other method " cases, 45 per cent, or nearly one-half must have been moribund ; a
statement, the absurdity of which is obvious to those who worked in the Mahratta
Hospital Wards.
I have, however, adopted an arbitrary definition of what is a moribund case,
Practically a case dying within fifteen hours is, in my opinion, a moribund case of
those apparently near death on admission, most live eight or nine hours, but the
majority are dead within fifteen, of course much latitude must be allowed in such a
method of making a definition, as after all the whole definition is a matter of conjec-
iure ; but for practical purposes a definition must be made and the best is that which
most closely agrees with personal experience.
With such a definition, I find that of the 2,135 admissions 366 were moribund,
allotting seven-eighths of these to the " Other Methods" group 1 and one-eighth to
the Native group and (unfairly) concluding that no Bath case was moribund, we get
the following amended figures for recoveries:—
Native 22 per cent.
Bath 20 per cent.
Other methods 16 per cent.
Another calculation must be made. For various reasons an undue proportion of
males to females was selected. The disparity was not large, but as other calculations
shew that female cases are rather more often fatal than male cases, iiie undue allot-
ment of the sexes must unfairly favour the Bath results. [ Vide, however, latter
remarks.]
The figures which establish these statements are briefly these :—
Of 1,164 Plague cases,
77 per cent, were males, 23 percent, were females.
Of the 960 Non-bath cases, 75
„
„
25
,,
„
Of the 204 Bath cases,
82
„
„
18
„
„
Hence, ihe undue proportion of males in the Bath cases is established. Now
turning to mortality we have : total mortality of first 204 Bath cases=75 per cent,
of males 72'7 per cent, of females 86'2 per cent. Therefore, had a fair proportion of
females been taken, the Bath mortality percentage would have been lower.