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March 15th. In the third epidemic the population was estimated to be 7,37,000 in
the middle of April, having fallen from 9,50,000, showing that the fear of Plague has
considerably decreased, since the first epidemic. Another interesting point is the total
number of deaths registered from all causes shown on this Chart from August 1st,
1896, to June 30th, 1899—35 months—which amount to 1,56,980. The number of
deaths based on an average of 5 years before that period is 83,764, leaving an excess
of 73,216 as the probable number of victims of Plague. Taking 8,50,000 as the
average population, this figure means that the percentage of loss from plague is 8·61
only, a remarkable result when compared with recorded epidemics in earlier years.
The fixing of a date for the commencement of Plague in Bombay must always
be problematical, but from facts gained from enquiries made during the first epidemic
from local medical practitioners, the first week in August 1896 was agreed upon
by the Bombay Plague Committee, certainly from about that date the total mortality
rose above normal, and never again touched it except on one or two days until the
middle of April1897.
In referring to the Chart it will be noticed that after the first epidemic the
mortality reached its normal level about the middle of April, and remained so
until nearly the middle of July. This occurred again in the Spring of 1898, except
that the normal level was reached at the end of the first week in May, and the
mortality remained so to the middle of August.
It might be said that the lowering of the sub-soil water due to evaporation
had something to do with this result, but it must be remembered that however low
a level the sub-soil water reached at the end of May, it was fully replenished before
the end of June by the first monsoon rains.
From the middle of July 1897, the health of the City suddenly took a turn
for the worse, and throughout to the remainder of the monsoon, the mortality was
abnormally high, showing the probable presence of plague, until it became epidemic
in December 1897. But in referring to the same period in 1898-99, there is a very
distinct improvement, and, with the exception of the period from the end of August
to the middle of October, the death-rate of the City is normal, and in spite of the
fact that the population was much in excess of 8,50,000. This cannot be accounted
for by any particular meteorological conditions, but I think it may probably be placed
to the credit of the good work done in putting the City in a better sanitary condition.
CHArT No. 2,
Chart No. 2 shews the course of the epidemics for the three seasons 1896-97,
1897-98, 1898-99, plotted per mille per annum according to the official returns of
the weekly death-rate from all causes against actual population. In this as in Chart
No. 1, the population has been estimated from the Tramway Company's statistics,
checked with the returns supplied by the Collector of Bombay.
The red line shows the epidemic in 1896-97, the blue line the epidemic in
1897-98, and the black line the epidemic in 1898-99, and the yellow line the normal
death-rate based on the average of five years previous to 1896. It is only by a chart
of this description that a true comparison of the three epidemics can be made.
An epidemic is considered to be present when the mortality of the City is equal to
60·00 per mille, that is about double the normal. The following are a few interesting
points which the Chart brings out :—
The first epidemic was undoubtedly the worst ; it commenced in the first week
in December and ended in the last week in April, and its maximum was attained in
February with a death-rate of 225 per thousand on a population of 442,000 ; from