14
Jullundur and Amritsar, came forward on the resumption of operations in January
affords good reason for believing that if the stoppage had not weakened the con-
fidence and strengthened the suspicions of the people and of the officials concerned,
and at the same time destroyed the effect produced by the preaching of inoculation
and rendered the resumption of preaching difficult, an exceedingly large number
of persons would have had themselves inoculated. In several districts it is true
the people did not take to inoculation and were afraid of it, but these were
newly infected districts that had no previous experience of plague or of inoculation.
InGujrát, a newly infected, district, the prospects were promising. In Gujránwála
also inoculation was newly introduced and was making way. In most districts
which had before had plague and inoculation it was in demand, particularly in
Ambala, Hoshiárpur, Jullundur, Ferozepore and Amritsar. In other districts the
people accepted it, though they did not show themselves to be particularly
anxious for it, as for instance in Gurdáspur, Lahore, Siálkot and Ludhiána. In
all districts however, the people would have come forward in increasing numbers
as the operations continued and the total numbers inoculated would undoubt-
edly have been very large. The Lieutenant-Governor was not in a position to
direct that inoculation should generally be pressed upon the people on the
resumption of operations, and the districts in which most work was done in
January and after were those in which the local officers themselves took an
interest in it and brought their personal influence to bear for the purpose
of advancing it. There is no reason to believe that compulsion was used in any
case to secure inoculation, and there can be little doubt that even after inocula-
tions had been temporarily stopped very large numbers would have accepted
it in all districts if it had been more vigorously advocated. It cannot, however,
be said whether in the absence of any accident the total number of inocu-
lations would have amounted to the number for the inoculation of which
arrangements were made. But that number was one computed mainly for
the purpose of estimating the cost of making inoculation available to all
who might possibly come forward, and even if the operations actually performed
had been considerably less, a very valuable saving in life would have been
secured,
27. In support of the assertion made at the end of the preceding para-
graph a reference may be made to the statements printed on pages 53 and 54 of
the Chief Plague Medical Officer's Report for 1902-03. These statements com-
pare inoculated and uninoculated persons in respect of their liability to attack
by and death from plague. They relate to the epidemic of the year
under report in selected villages and in households of which the plague
history was ascertained by special enquiry. The selected villages are those
in which at least 10 per cent of the population was inoculated and in
which there was plague within four months of the inoculation. The figures
are compiled from registers and returns especially prescribed for the inocula-
tion operations and maintained and verified by the exceptionally strong staff
which was on plague duty They cannot, it is true, be regarded as absolute-
ly correct, but they were checked as carefully as possible on the spot, and the
results deduced from them may be accepted as approximately true. The totals
from which these results are deduced are large enough to give trustworthy
averages, and it should be noted that in so far as the figures are incorrect they
err in favour of the uninoculated. Thus, it is possible that the numbers of the
uninoculated who were exposed to plague are exaggerated, for they were
calculated by deducting the actual numbers inoculated from the popu-
lation according to the Census of 1901, which in many cases was not
improbably greater than the population actually in the villages during the
outbreak of plague. Moreover, it is probable that more plague occurrences
escaped record among the uninoculated than among the inoculated, and
there is reason to believe that cases and deaths among inoculated persons
were fully brought on to the record. The village totals show that the
inoculated had a great advantage over the uninoculated, and the figures compiled
from enquiries in particular households which suffered from plague show
the same. These latter are particularly valuable for the comparison they afford
between the liability of inoculated and uninoculated persons when both are