Chapter V.]
ASPECTS OF EPIDEMIC CHOLERA IN INDIA IN 1876.
299
48,000 deaths were registered among the general population within the same area. It is the
rule, and not the exception, that when cholera is in movement, its presence is manifested in our
types; and we expect to find the manifestation. But in 1876, with the report of the presence
of cholera in every district, our types in a great measure failed to show it; and this, because
the cholera was localised or limited in its movement. The deaths in the European army of
Bengal of 1876 are naturally grouped in two classes. Out of 115 deaths, 80 were caused by
the onward movement of cholera towards the frontier; 5 occurred within the endemic area;
and the remaining 30 deaths were spread over 10 stations, showing how trifling was the
tendency to severe outbreaks with this cholera of the second year.
The province of Oudh lost 22,000, and suffered generally, although the chief loss fell o
n t h r e e d i s t r i c t s — R a i B a r e i l l y , G o n d a , a n d B a h r a i c h — w h i c h r e g i s t e r e d 1 4 , 0 0 0 d e a t h s . T h e
districts of Oudh furthest to the west, approaching the line of 80° east longitude, Sitapur
and Hardoi, registered only 60 deaths between them; and this was the eastern limit, and the
natural limit of a great province of exemption in 1876, which ended at Lahore in the west.
The only exception to this was that certain districts under the hills, and in the hills, still
retained cholera; Moradabad and Bareilly registered 3,700 deaths, the Terai Pergunnahs 669,
and Kumaon 808 deaths, showing that a large body of cholera still remained incubating in.
this tract. We have no record in 1876 of cholera surviving in the hills between Kumaon in the
east, and Cashmere in the west. There is no history of cholera in the Himalayas except as a
cholera of advance; no retrogression over the tract occupied in 1875 occurred, and no cholera
within the same area came forward by local growth.
The onward progress in 1876 of the
cholera of 1875 in Northern India
. The advance into Cashmere and be
-yond the Frontier.
There remains therefore to be considered only the behaviour
of the invading cholera which fell in August 1875 behind the
aerial wall, and was cut short in its progress towards the
north-western frontier.
Would the advancing cholera of August 1875 be restrained by the natural barrier raised
against it, as in 1856 and 1861 ? This was the leading question which I placed before myself
in answering the enquiries of Government, as to what was likely to be the role of cholera from
12th August 1875 onwards till the end of the cholera season.
I give these anticipations as presented to Government on 17th August 1875.
In writing this paper I was compelled to carry my anticipations sixteen months in
advance. The case stood thus,—Given the conditions of 1856
and 1861, cholera may be expected in 1876, between the limit
of advance in 1875 and the Frontier, and it will persist, should
it enter the Peshawar valley up to the first week of November 1876; cholera will appear in
Cashmere in the spring, and the Murree Hills will get cholera in August as in 1858 and 1862;
and at any time after July cholera may sweep down upon Peshawar, and from past experience
we can foretell approximately what the result will be should this occur.
Thus, then, I wrote while the epidemic was in full vitality, and while six weeks of epidemic
life were still before it:
The course of Cholera in 1875 and 1876 in Northern India as anticipated in August 1675.
" We have no information of further extension in the Punjab up to the present time.
The cholera now going on at Amritsar will not spread from Amritsar as a focus. What we
have to fear is further movement, such as I had to describe in 1872 as leading to the simul--
taneous appearance of the epidemic from Bundelkhund to Kohat on 18th August, and in many
other epidemics as occurring in the first week of September. The week which we dread most,
1st to 8th August, is past, and the chances of escape for the stations of Northern India are
increased by exemption to so late a date. I have but to point, however, to the experience of
1872, as indicating that movement, and the further advance of cholera may take place any day
for three weeks to come. Many of our greatest epidemics failed to reach the higher stations of
the Punjab, and it is quite possible that the same exemption may occur in 1875. So long as
cholera prevails south of the Jumna, Meerut cannot be considered safe, * and it is well to recol
- l e c t t h a t i t w a s , o n e o f t h e s t a t i o n s t h a t f i r s t s h o w e d c h o l e r a . , o n 1 8 t h A u g u s t i n 1 8 7 2 . W h e t h e r
Morar will suffer or not is doubtful. Two cases have already occurred at Gwalior Fort, and
today three cases are reported among the natives in the Lushikur. In my mind the occurrences
of 1875 are associated with those of 1865, and I feel inclined to refer passing events to the
parallels of this year. Moran gave 12 cases in August 1865, and, as in 1875, Gwalior Fortress
2; and I should not be surprised to find as many cases in the current month.†
" If another week passes without renewed movement, we may, I think, hope for the escape of
Jullundur, Ferozepore and Meean Meer, and all stations north of the Jhelum; in other words,
that cholera will be limited by the blue line which I have drawn on the map‡ ; and still in the
absence of movement, we trust that it will not attack any new station lying within the line.
"The great body of cholera pushed towards and into the hills is so much materies diverted
from the plains; and while the diversion has not been total, we may, I think, reckon on com
- p a r a t i v e i m m u n i t y i n r e l a t i o n t o t h e w i t h d r a w a l o f s o m u c h c h o l e r a .
"The natural advance of this cholera may lead it into Cashmere. And the re-appearance of
cholera in May of the year following has, in Northern India, very often followed limitation,
such as may occur in this year, a contingency not to be overlooked."
* M e e r u t w a s a t t a c k e d o n 2 6 t h A u g u s t .
† M o r a r w a s a t t a c k e d o n 2 3 r d A u g u s t , a n d 1 9 d e a t h s o c c u r r e d .
‡ W h i c h a c c o m p a n i e d t h i s M e m o r a n d u m .
The possibility of limitation anti
-cipated in August 1875.