28
of plague deaths by deducting the average mortality from the actual mortality
for each month and treating the balance as due to plague. The number of
plague deaths reported after 20th April may be accepted as approximately
correct. The following statement shows the plague mortality of Poona City as
arrived at by this method :—
Mouth.
December
January
February
March
April 1st to 20t
1
...
...
...
...
...
...
..·
...
...
...
...
Average mortality
of preceding five ·
years.
2
261
261
225
244
178
Actual mortality
in plague year.
3
270
497
1,009
1,656
534
Add — Reported plague deaths from April 21st to May 20-th ...
Total estimated plague mortality ...
Difference between
Columns 2 and 3.
4
9
236
784
1,412
356
104
2,901
9. The estimate of the total plague mortality thus arrived at is probably
too low rather than too high. In the first place it has to be remembered that
the general health, apart from plague, was good throughout the epidemic.
Another cause that operated to keep down mortality during the period the
military search parties were employed was the removal of sick persons from the
city into the surrounding villages. I believe that this practice did much to
lower the general mortality of the city, and it certainly accounts to a great
extent for the exceptional lowness of the mortality from causes other than plague
during the period from 21st April to 20th May. Accepting 2,901 as the total
plague mortality of the city, and I think the figure is well within the mark,
we find that the plague claimed 24 per mille of the registered population as
victims.
10. In tracing the progress of the epidemic it has to be firmly borne in
mind that till the latter part of April our record of plague attacks and plague
deaths was very incomplete. Evidence of its rise and fall must, therefore, be
looked for in the variations in the total mortality, and in this connection we ask
attention to the abstract of Appendix 38, which has already been given. From
the last column of that abstract it will be seen that the recorded mortality rose
steadily from the first period of December to the first period of March with only
one interruption, and that there was a continuous decline in all subsequent
periods. In connection with this it must be explained that before the plague opera-
tions came under European control the death registration was carried on very
irregularly by the municipal staff. On the last day of each month a number
of deaths were brought on to the register, which bad been reported by the munir
cipal subordinates and policemen, some of which had occurred weeks before.
Further, deaths were not registered at all on days when the Municipal Office was
closed, deaths which should have been registered on such days being brought to
account subsequently. It is owing to these two causes combined that the regis-
tered mortality was lower in the first period of January than in the last period of
December. I see no reason to believe that there was any real interruption in
the increase in the mortality between the first period of December and the first
period of March. Up to the middle of January that increase was assisted by a
continuous increase in the population of the city. Prom the beginning of
February it went on concurrently with a decrease in the population. The
mortality from all causes reached its highest point on 10th March, when a fall
set in.
11. It will be seen from the abstract that the total mortality in the
second period of March was smaller then in the first period of that month by
98. This decrease is chiefly due to the fact that it got known in the eity that