27
3. Estimates of the population at various stages of the epidemic are
necessarily a matter of guess work, a very large proportion of the egresa having
been by road, statistics of which are not available. I believe, however, that the
maximum population was attained in the middle of January when there were
probably not less than 160,000 people in the city. In the middle of April, when
the population had reached its lowest point, the number of inhabitants probably
did not exceed 80,000.
4. The first registered case of plague in Poona City, an imported one,
occurred on 19th December 1896. Having regard to the numbers of plague
patients found at Poona Railway Station during the previous 2½ months, it is
probable that cases occurred earlier, but if they did, they were not reported to
the Municipality.
5. A statement of the daily plague attacks, plague deaths, and total
mortality from December 1st, 1896, will be found in Appendix 38. The monthly
mortality of the city during the period of the epidemic is contrasted with the
mortality in previous years in Appendix 39. Appendix 40 shows how the various
castes and races have been affected by the epidemic. The following statement,
which is an abstract of Appendix 38, gives statistics of plague attacks, plague
deaths and total mortality for the 1st to 10th, 11th to 20th and 21st to the last
day of each mouth :—
Period.
December 1st — 10th ...
December 11th— 20th ...
December 21st — 31st ...
January 1st — 10th ...
January 11th — 20th ...
January 21st — 31st ...
February 1st— 10th ...
February 11th— 20th ...
February 21st— 28th ...
March 1st— 10th ...
March 11th — 20th ...
March 21st— 31st ...
April 1st— 10th ...
April 11th— 20th ...
April 21st— 30th ...
May 1st— 10th .. ...
May 11th— 20th ...
Total ...
PLAGUE ATTACKS.
Imported.
1
1
7
3
8
5
...
2
1
...
...
...
1
2
...
1
32
Local.
...
2
5
18
60
64
51
81
245
399
453
337
165
88
29
20
2,017
Total.
1
3
12
21
68
69
51
83
246
399
453
337
166
90
29
21
2,049
Plague
deaths.
...
4
10
20
65
66
42
64
202
241
313
218
132
66
22
16
1,481
Total
mortality.
59
72
139
90
166
241
256
329
424
615
517
524
328
206
109
59
53
4,187
Annual death-rate
per mille represented
on Census Population
by total mortality.
18
22
38
27
51
67
78
101
163
189
159
146
100
63
33
18
16
6. From Appendix 39 it will be seen that the registered mortality was
abnormally low in October and November 1896. It was slightly above the
average in December, and largely so in January, February, March and April.
In May it was again below the average.
7. There is little reason to doubt that owing to the exceptional dryness
of the weather consequent on the early stoppage of the monsoon of 1896, the
general health of Poona from October 1896 to May 1897 was, apart from the
plauge, exceptionally good. This fact being accepted, it will be evident from
a perusal of Appendices 38 and 39 that the number of reported plague deaths
does not wholly account for the largeness of the total mortality in the months
of January, February, March, and a portion of April. The fact is that a large
proportion of the plague deaths that have occurred in private houses have been
falsely reported as due to other causes and registered accordingly by the
Municipal authorities.
8. The total number of plague deaths registered up to May 20th has
been 1,481. A more correct idea can, however, be obtained of the number