24
Village.
Nagardevala.
Daravadi ...
Period and its characteristics.
24th September to 7th October
plague increasing and rather viru-
lent .nd no inoculation ; 14 days ...
8th October to 18th inoculation
started bat epidemic still goes on ..
Total ...
INOCULATED.
Units.
1,384
1,384
Attacke.
...
...
Deaths
...
...
Death-rate
1 in-
...
...
Units.
15,460
5,105
20,565
UNINOCULATED
Attacks.
30
25
55
Deaths
24
21
45
Death-rate
1 in—
644
243
457
(Please note that after 13th October large numbers of the Nagardevala people have been inoculated ; and
up to dato (19th) there has been one non-fatal case among the inoculated and 5 cases and 9 deaths
among the lemaining uninoculated. Therefore the above figures do not yet show the enormous amount
of protection afforded.)
11th September to 13th October.
Here inoculation was started the
very day that cases were first dis-
covered ; 33 days
10,396
18
5
2,079
6,852
47
33
2C6
" The remaining village, Hingangaon, is peculiar ; it was surrounded by plague, and on 31st
of August 12 persons came to get inoculated, it having up to that time not been discovered
that there was any plague there : this strange behaviour makes it probable there was, as of the
21 persons 2 developed plague almost at once and died within 48 hours ; and a third was
atacked, but not fatally, afterwards. To complete the first summary however these figures
will be included and discussed below.
Village.
Hingangaon.
Period and its characteristics.
Scarcely any inoculation from 2nd
September to ]3th October; 44
INOCULATED
Units.
453
Attacks.
3
Deaths.
2
Death-rate
1 in—
226
UNINOCULATED
Units.
34,635
Attacks.
62
Deaths.
42
Death-rate
1 in-
824
" The following table sums up the occurrences in the above villages : —
Villages.
Vakodi
Nepti
,.
Valunj
Nimblak
Nagardevala
...
Hingangaon
Grand Total ..
INOCULATED UNITS.
Total.
41,083
28,334
7,443
21.417
2,269
31,338
1,381
10,396
453
144,117
Coses.
11
8
6
8
9
7
...
18
3
70
Deaths.
6
2
2
7
2
5
...
5
2
31
Death-rate
1 in—
6,847
14,162
8,721
3,060
1,135
6,267
...
2,079
226
4,648-9
UNINOCULATED UNITS
Total.
105,246
60,515
70,348
25,295
37,329
148,300
20,565
6,852
34,635
509,085
Cases.
74
54
69
77
56
59
55
47
63
563
Deaths.
48
39
54
73
34
47
45
33
42
415
Death-rate
1 in—
2,192
1,551
1,302
345
1,098
3,155
457
206
824
1,226.7
"Now the meaning of the above is that, assuming that the exposure of the inoculated
units was just the same as that of the uninoculated units, then the inoculated had a daily
plague death-rate of 1 in 4,648.9 while the uninoculated had a daily death-rate of 1 in 1 226.7 ;
or, if the inoculated had not been protected, they would have presumably died at the same rate
as the others and lost 117.6 lives instead of 31 ; so that by inoculation 86.6 lives were saved,
or a percentage of 73.6.
"When we recall that as a fact the inoculated were more exposed and that it was those
who had had deaths in their families and close neighbourhoods who were most ready to try the
protection, the real truth is that they were protected much more than 73.6 per cent. But even
if their greater exposure is disallowed, still we have the incontrovertible fact that they lost
73 per cent, less lives from plague than the uninoculated."
The only case in the series given above in which a doubtful result is shown
is the village of Hingangaon where out of the 12 persons inoculated 2 developed
plague within 48 hours and subsequently died. The fact that these 12 persons