14
Calculating from the normal average death-rate during these months among
the community for some years previous to the plague epidemic, it appears that
one should expect 302 deaths from natural causes, hut as 184 deaths were actu-
ally recorded, it may fairly he assumed that the 82 extra deaths were due to
plague. Of these 82 plague deaths, 3 occurred in those inoculated between 27th
December 1897 and 20th April 185 8, 2 in those inoculated during the previous
epidemic, and 77 among the uninoculated. These details were carefully as-
certained by a house-to-house visitation conducted by Mr. Haffkine personally,
by examination of the burial hook at the Jamat Khana, and by the inoculation
documents in the Laboratory. The distribution of deaths in the two groups is
shown below.
Inoculated...
Not inoculated
Population.
3,814
9,516
deaths from
plague.
3
77
Deaths from
other causes.
4
94
Admitting that not more man 77 deaths among
unmnocuiatea were aue
to plague, and supposing that the inoculated had remained after operation as
susceptible as before, they ought to have had proportionately 31 deaths from
plague instead of 3 only ; or a difference of 90.3 per cent. in favour of thé
inoculated.
10. Hubli.—Plaguo appeared in this mercantile town of 50,000 inhabitants
in the end of 1897. It then disappeared for a time, only to break out once
more on the approach of the monsoon. " The average rainfall between April and
October amounts to more than 28 inches. Under these circumstances, although
a large and weather-proof health camp had been prepared for emergencies, com-
plete evacuation of the infected town-site was impossible, and the attempt to
effect it would have led to the severest hardships and to the immediate spread
of the disease into surrounding villages and districts." It was for this reason,
as Mr. Cappel, the Collector—whose words have just been quoted—remarks, that
inoculation was tried so extensively, being the only feasible measure under the
circumstances. As Mr. Cappel further remarks :—" Inoculation seems therefore
to be pre-eminently adapted for large towns and industrial places at all times
and in the rains it is, so far as present experience shows, the only method of
staying the disease which can be relied on."
The enormous numbers inoculated, and the size of the town itself, precluder
any such great accuracy of figures as was attained in the small village of
Undhera, for instance, but still the following figures from Captain Leumann
Report to Government may be taken as substantially correct. The inoculations
were begun on the 11th of May 1898, and between that time and 27th Septem
ber, 38,712 persons were operated on :—
Bates.
11th May to 14th June 1898
Week ending 21st June „
28th „
„
5th July „
12th „
„
19th „
„
„
26th „
„
„
2nd Aug „
9th „ ,,
16th „ „
23rd „ „
30th „ „
6th Sept. ,,
13th „ „
20th „ „
27th „ „
Actual popula.
tion of Hubli
as per weekly
census.
( Fell from
( 50,000 to
47,427
47,082
47,185
46,537
46,518
45,240
43,809
43,707
42,768
40,441
39,400
38,210
38,382
38,408
39,142
39,315·
Numbers net
inoculated.
)
44,573
)
41,494
39,042
36,020
33,255
29,716
24,112
21,031
15,584
10,685
6,367
4,094
2,731
1,116
937
603
Numbers
inoculated.
2,854
5,588
8,443
10,517
13,263
15,524
19.697
22,676
27,184
29,756
33,033
34,116
35,469
37.292
38,205
38,712
Plague
deaths
among not
inoculated.
47
22
29
55
34
82
100
140
272
386
371
328
227
138
106
58
Plagne
deaths
among
inoculated.
1
3
1
6
6
7
15
16
19
61
41
28
34
46
35
20