23
" the day of the outbreak up to the date of this memorandum [24th October
" 1899] the writer does not admit there is any appreciable error in these statistics.
" In some of the villages the number of the residual population at the end of
" the outbreak has been further tested and tallied and found not to throw the
" least suspicion on the records."
The method of calculation adopted by Mr. Anderson is as follows :—" A
" number of protected and a number of unprotected persons live for a day in
" the infected area, and the question is, which class shows the higher rate of
"attack and death from plague. If the number is not the same, as will
" usually be the case, then we must multiply the number of protected by the
" number of days they have lived in the village, and similarly with the unpro-
" tected : thus the product will give the number of daily units of each class :
" these units divided by the number of attacks and deaths from plague among
" that class give the daily rate of attack and death as 1, in so many units."
The unit in fact is 1 (person) × 1 (day).
As the result of the labour of the census parties Mr. Anderson was able to
compile tables showing day by day the progress of plague in each village, and the
events happening in the groups of inoculated and uninoculated respectively.
From these he compiled the following summary :—
"Village.
Arangaon ...
Vakodi ...
Nepti ...
Valunj ...
Nimblak ...
Bhirgár ...
Period and its characteristics.
9th May to 14th June disease slowly
spreads till it gets epidemic and
inoculation begins ; 37 days
15th June to 31st August plague
gets worse till at last inoculation is
resorted to freely ; 78 days
1st to 30th September inoculation
general and plague disappears;
30 days
...
...
...
...
Total, 145 days ...
3rd July to 15th August outbreak
controlled by evacuation till it gets
severe ; 44 days ... ... ...
After 15 cases in 2 days the people
take to inoculation, 16th August to
5th September ; 21 days ... ...
6th September to 12th October in-
oculation stamps out plague which
becomes sporadic ; 38 days ...
Total, 102 days ...
6th July to 13th August inoculation
declined ; 39 days ... ... ...
-14th August to 13th Soptember epi-
demic dies out through evacuation ;
31 days ... ... ... ...
Total, 70 days ...
Little inoculation, disease very viru-
lent 1st to 28th August ; 28 days.
9th August to end of epidemic 14th
October inoculation stamps it out ;
47 days
...
...
...
...
Total, 85 days ...
From 25th August to 13th October
the disease still rages and people
take very little to inoculation ; no
fair trial , 50 days ... ... ...
From the timo when plague began
to be epidemic (7th September) to
19th October period of 43 days ...
INOCULATED.
Units.
24
18,940
22,119
41,083
...
2,218
26,116
28,334
66
7,377
7,443
497
20,920
21,417
2,269
31,338
Attack.
...
4
7
11
...
...
8
8
...
6
6
3
5
8
9
7
Death.
...
2
4
6
...
...
2
2
...
2
2
2
5
7
2
5
Death-rate
1 in—
...
9,470
5,530
6,847
...
...
13,090
14,162
...
3,687
3,721
249
4,184
3,060
1,135
6,267
UNINOCULATED.
Units.
37,945
59,937
7,364
105,246
38,663
15,860
5,992
60,515
43,848
26,500
70,348
17,923
7,362
25,295
37,329
148,300
Attack.
11
40
23
74
14
36
4
54
50
19
69
53
24
77
56
59
Death.
8
28
12
48
10
28
1
39
38
16
54
40
24
73
47
Death-rate
1 in—
4,743
2,140
613
2,192
3,865
566
5,968
1,551
1,154
1,656
1,302
365
306
345
1,098
3,155