Modeling Conflict Dynamics with Spatio-temporal Data [electronic resource] /
Zammit-Mangion, Andrew.author.
Dewar, Michael.author.
Kadirkamanathan, Visakan.author.
Flesken, Anaïd.author.
Sanguinetti, Guido.author.
This authored monograph presents the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modeling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. The authors use ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, and provide a predictive framework which is able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions. The book also demonstrates the methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary, the results showing that this approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from preceding years. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and practitioners in the involved fields but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.
Description based upon print version of record.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Conflict Data Sets and Point Patterns -- Theory -- Modelling and Prediction in Conflict: Afghanistan.
This authored monograph presents the use of dynamic spatiotemporal modeling tools for the identification of complex underlying processes in conflict, such as diffusion, relocation, heterogeneous escalation, and volatility. The authors use ideas from statistics, signal processing, and ecology, and provide a predictive framework which is able to assimilate data and give confidence estimates on the predictions. The book also demonstrates the methods on the WikiLeaks Afghan War Diary, the results showing that this approach allows deeper insights into conflict dynamics and allows a strikingly statistically accurate forward prediction of armed opposition group activity in 2010, based solely on data from preceding years. The target audience primarily comprises researchers and practitioners in the involved fields but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.
Sociophysics.
Econophysics.
Mathematics.
Social sciences.
Computational complexity.
Probabilities.
Signal processing.
Image processing.
Speech processing systems.
Data-driven Science, Modeling and Theory Building.
Mathematics in the Humanities and Social Sciences.
Complexity.
Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes.
Signal, Image and Speech Processing.