Business Cycles in the Run of History [electronic resource] /
Aimar, Thierry.author.
Bismans, Francis.author.
Diebolt, Claude.author.
This book analyzes the development of economic cycles in the run of history. The focus is on the development of cycle theory, with maximum emphasis upon ideas. Chapter 1 delivers an overview of the debate about cycles before the 1970s. Chapter 2 completes this survey by presenting the main empirical investigations since that time. Finally, Chapters 3 and 4 illustrate the discourse, by presenting, in the tradition of Burns and Mitchell, original case studies on France, South Africa, and Germany.
Description based upon print version of record.
Contents; 1 Introduction; Abstract ; Reference; 2 Theory; Abstract ; 2.1 The "Old Decennial Cycle" and Its Theorizations; 2.1.1 Industrial Crises; 2.1.2 Classical Business Cycles; 2.2 The Years of High Theory; 2.2.1 Austrian Theory; 2.2.2 The Keynesian Revolution; 2.3 Keynesianism and Around; 2.3.1 The Keynesian School; 2.3.2 The Samuelson-Hicks Model; 2.3.3 "Non-linear" Contributions of Goodwin and Allais; 2.4 The Statistical and Econometric Approaches; 2.4.1 The First Steps; 2.4.2 The "Tinbergen Moment"; 2.4.3 Towards Large Scale Models; References; 3 Empirics; Abstract
3.1 Towards New Approaches of the Cycle3.1.1 The Decomposition of the Neo-Classical Synthesis; 3.1.2 Equilibrium Cycles; 3.1.3 Unorthodox Theories: Minsky; 3.1.4 Unorthodox Theories: Hayek; 3.2 Long Cycles; 3.2.1 From the Precursors; 3.2.2 To the Schumpeterian Tradition; 3.3 The Empirics of Business Cycle Analysis; 3.3.1 What Is the Business Cycle?; 3.3.2 Measuring and Dating the Business Cycle; References; 4 Dating; Abstract ; 4.1 Methodology; 4.1.1 Markov-Switching Models; 4.1.2 Estimation; 4.1.3 Testing for Nonlinearity; 4.2 Dating the French Business Cycle; 4.2.1 Data and Models
4.2.2 Estimation and Results (I)4.2.3 Estimations and Results (II); 4.3 The Case of South Africa; 4.3.1 Model and Data; 4.3.2 Estimation and Tests; 4.3.3 A Chronology of the Business Cycle; 4.3.4 A Brief Comparison; References; 5 Forecasting; Abstract ; 5.1 Chronology and Features of the German Cycle; 5.1.1 BBQ Algorithm; 5.1.2 Some Characteristics of the German Cycle; 5.2 The Econometric Model; 5.2.1 The Dynamic Probit; 5.2.2 Empirical Model; 5.2.3 In-Sample Prediction; 5.3 Forecasting in Real Time; 5.3.1 The Predicting Method; 5.3.2 Forecasting the Recessions After 2005; References
6 AfterwordAbstract ; 6.1 A Plea for a New Econometrics-Based Macroeconomics; 6.2 The Standard Macroeconomic Model; 6.3 A Critical Evaluation; 6.4 The Turmoil of the 2007-2008 Crisis; 6.5 Macroeconomics Otherwise; References
Includes bibliographical references at the end of each chapters.
This book analyzes the development of economic cycles in the run of history. The focus is on the development of cycle theory, with maximum emphasis upon ideas. Chapter 1 delivers an overview of the debate about cycles before the 1970s. Chapter 2 completes this survey by presenting the main empirical investigations since that time. Finally, Chapters 3 and 4 illustrate the discourse, by presenting, in the tradition of Burns and Mitchell, original case studies on France, South Africa, and Germany.
Economic history.
Economic growth.
History.
Social sciences
History of Economic Thought/Methodology.
Economic Growth.
History, general.
Methodology of the Social Sciences.