Minding the weather : how expert forecasters think /
Hoffman, Robert R.,author.
LaDue, Daphne S.(Daphne Sue),1967-author.
Mogil, H. Michael,author.
Roebber, Paul J.(Paul Joseph),author.
Trafton, John Gregory,1966-author.
"This book presents an integration of recent research that reveals the knowledge and reasoning of expert weather forecasters, explaining how they understand and predict the weather. The book also discusses different styles and approaches to forecasting. It summarizes what weather forecasters themselves have said about their reasoning, the literature of what makes for sound training of forecasters, studies of forecast accuracy, attempts to generate computer systems to forecast weather, and the technologies used in forecasting (including displays and visualizations) in such systems as radar and satellite. It presents a case study in which forecasters at a facility were probed for their reasoning and a proficiency scale was developed. In addition, the book summarizes and integrates the newest cutting-edge research in applied cognitive science, human factors engineering, cognitive systems engineering, and human-computer interaction that has investigated aspects of the psychology of weather forecasting, including knowledge and mental models, perceptual and display interpretation skills, and reasoning heuristics and strategies"--Provided by publisher.
"This book presents an integration of recent research that reveals the knowledge and reasoning of expert weather forecasters, explaining how they understand and predict the weather. The book also discusses different styles and approaches to forecasting. It summarizes what weather forecasters themselves have said about their reasoning, the literature of what makes for sound training of forecasters, studies of forecast accuracy, attempts to generate computer systems to forecast weather, and the technologies used in forecasting (including displays and visualizations) in such systems as radar and satellite. It presents a case study in which forecasters at a facility were probed for their reasoning and a proficiency scale was developed. In addition, the book summarizes and integrates the newest cutting-edge research in applied cognitive science, human factors engineering, cognitive systems engineering, and human-computer interaction that has investigated aspects of the psychology of weather forecasting, including knowledge and mental models, perceptual and display interpretation skills, and reasoning heuristics and strategies"--Provided by publisher.
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Introduction -- What is the forecasting workplace like? -- How do people get to be forecasters? -- How do forecasters describe their reasoning? -- How well do forecasters perform? -- What characterizes expertise? -- How do forecasters get to be expert forecasters? -- What does research on forecaster knowledge tell us? -- What does research n forecaster perception tell us? -- What does research on forecaster reasoning tell us? -- Can a machine imitate the human? -- Can a machine replace the human? -- Forecaster-computer interdependence -- Prospects.
Weather forecasting.
Weather forecasting.