Models of Scenario Building and Planning [electronic resource] : Facing Uncertainty and Complexity /
Martelli, A.author.
Models of Scenario Building and Planning offers a unique and innovative exploration of the scenario approach. The book focuses on the analysis of the competitors' behavior; the analysis of risk and uncertainty; and the link between scenarios and strategies.
Description based upon print version of record.
Cover; Half-Title; Title; Copyright; Dedication; Contents; List of Figures; List of Tables; Foreword; Preface and Acknowledgements; List of Abbreviations; 1 Why Scenario Planning?; 1.1 Events, change and trends; 1.2 Uncertainty ...; 1.3 ... And complexity; 2 The Missions of Scenarios; 2.1 Single-point and multiple perspectives; 2.1.1 A tale of two cities; 2.1.2 Looking beyond the words; 2.2 A brief history of the scenario approach; 2.3 The multiple perspective; 2.4 Scenarios and their missions; 2.4.1 The first mission of scenarios: replacing linear, single-point predictions
2.4.2 The second mission of scenarios: to reduce uncertainty and to anticipate complexity2.5 Scenarios: the state of the art; 2.6 How and when are scenarios useful?; 2.7 The Shell scenarios; 2.8 Recapitulation: in search of a theoretical foundation for SBP; 2.9 Terminology; 3 The Fundamentals of Environmental Analysis; 3.1 Research as the foundation of scenario building; 3.2 The environment as a conceptual framework; 3.3 Analysing the environment: the internal environment; 3.4 Analysing the environment: the external environment; 3.4.1 The microdimension; 3.4.2 The macrodimension
4 Information, Intelligence and Competitive Intelligence4.1 What is intelligence?; 4.2 Economic, business and competitive intelligence; 4.2.1 "Competitors" learning in a war context: Harry Hinsley and British Intelligence in the Second World War; 4.3 Intelligence and signals; 4.3.1 Strong signals; 4.3.2 Weak signals; 4.3.3 Weak signals and intelligence; 4.4 The case for competitive intelligence; 4.4.1 Competitive intelligence and the levels of uncertainty; 4.4.2 Competitive intelligence and the spheres of influence; 4.4.3 A framework for the analysis of competitive intelligence
4.4.4 Early warning4.5 The competitive intelligence cycle; 4.6 The competitive fog; 4.7 A final note: information orientation; 5 The Principles of Scenario Building; 5.1 After the research is done; 5.2 Formalised or nonformalised approaches?; 5.3 The procedure; 5.3.1 The first step: singling out the fundamental system drivers, or the search for causes; 5.3.2 The second step: the search for effects; 5.3.3 The third step: defining the time horizon; 5.3.4 The fourth step: assembling the expected trends and events; 5.3.5 The fifth step: configuring the scenarios
5.3.6 The sixth step: drawing the conclusions5.4 Building a scenario: the energy 2005-30 case; 5.4.1 The assumptions; 5.4.2 The methodology; 5.5 Conclusion: a comparison between the two scenarios; 6 From Scenario Building to Scenario Planning: Intuitive Logic and Trend Impact Analysis; 6.1 Models in scenario building; 6.2 The approach based on intuitive logic; 6.3 The case of the European steel industry (2007); 6.3.1 The environmental analysis; 6.3.2 Aims and method used in the scenario analysis; 6.3.3 The baseline projection; 6.3.4 The FSD; 6.3.5 The scenarios for 2012
6.3.6 Some final considerations
Includes bibliographical references and index.
Models of Scenario Building and Planning offers a unique and innovative exploration of the scenario approach. The book focuses on the analysis of the competitors' behavior; the analysis of risk and uncertainty; and the link between scenarios and strategies.
Leadership.
Management.
Industrial management.
Organization.
Planning.
Development economics.
Operations research.
Decision making.
Business Strategy/Leadership.
Management.
Innovation/Technology Management.
Organization.
Development Economics.
Operations Research/Decision Theory.