Title: The gap between fertility ideals and reality in East Asia: a mixed-method comparative study of Beijing Municipality and Taiwan
Funder: Economic and Social Research Council

Abstract: Ultra-low fertility rates in parts of East Asia are a threat to long-term growth and economic competitiveness. These very low birth rates lead to a shrinking labour force which has to support a rapidly ageing population. Most governments in the region are prioritising family policy in order to encourage fertility as a core strategy for securing their economic future. However, some scholars believe that after a prolonged period of very low fertility, small families become the social norm, which would make it much harder for Governments to increase birth rates. Yet, while the average Total Fertility Rate (TFR) in Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea and Japan is only between 1 and 1.4 children, the generally reported ideal family size in these countries is, in fact, two children. This suggests that there is an appetite for larger families which either direct or indirect policy interventions could potentially address (e.g. through reforms in policy concerning family benefits, childcare, women's work, housing, education etc.) In urban China, however, similar fertility rates are coupled with reported ideal family sizes of around one - even where couples are allowed to have a second child. Taken at face value, this suggests that small families have become more normalised and culturally engrained in urban China than other areas because of its recent history of population control. Policy interventions to increase fertility would be far less likely to succeed in such a situation where, unlike in Taiwan or Japan, there is no desire for two or more children. On the other hand, this reported desire for only one child in urban China may be simply a result of many years of governmental insistence on the benefits of one-child families emerging in survey responses. In other words, are the respondents in urban China simply saying what they think the survey taker wants to hear? Meanwhile, there is the counter-argument that the responses of those surveyed in urban China reflect the real situation in the rest of East Asia with which it shares so many economic and cultural characteristics. These include long hours of work, cramped housing, a high cost of living and high levels of investment in children. Could the reported desire for two children in other East Asian settings simply be a reflection of broader (Western/historical) cultural norms of the two child family? Most of the surveys which address these issues have only been analysed and discussed at a basic, descriptive level. These give no more than tantalising glimpses of the predictors of different family ideals. More rigorous statistical analysis will clarify the interactions between personal characteristics and socio-economic circumstances and the choices and decisions which they make relating to family-formation. Secondary data analysis of populations in two important areas should show whether or not couples in Beijing (and by extension urban China) really prefer very small families. In that case, the absence of any 'unmet need' for children would remove any leverage from family policy measures designed to encourage the birth rate. These issues can then be further explored in interviews with 'real people' to find out their aspirations, hopes and worries about family formation. This will be the first project to compare two East Asian populations - Beijing Municipality and Taiwan - which share ultra-low fertility and similar social and economic characteristics, but which have markedly different reported ideal family sizes. If it appears that fertility will, indeed, be extremely hard to increase, this raises profound questions about population size and structure not just in parts of Asia, but also potentially across parts of the developing world.


Research activity codes: 1.2 PSYCHOLOGICAL AND SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES
Health categories: REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH AND CHILDBIRTH