Title: Covid Social Mobility and Opportunities study (COSMO): Wave 2
Funder: Economic and Social Research Council

Abstract: We are now in a position to capitalise on the successful establishment of the COVID Social Mobility & Opportunities study (COSMO) longitudinal panel and Wave 1 implementation. We propose to proceed to a second wave - in order to continue gathering data about this group's experiences as they proceed through a crucial transition including, for some of them, preparations to progress to higher education, thus starting the process of observing more medium-term outcomes for this cohort, as well as laying further foundations for later waves collecting longer-term outcomes. COSMO Wave 2 is anticipated to include follow-up surveys with both the main young person sample members, and their main parents. The Wave 2 surveys are planned to cover the following core areas, for young people: Current education/training status; Experiences of education/training status (including participation in 'catch up activities'); Health behaviours and wellbeing/mental health; Educational and career plans and aspirations (including financial concerns about university); Reflective questions on experience of COVID (e.g. maintaining mental health in lockdown). And for parents: Socio-demographic update (including wider questions than were possible in W1, such as data on grandparents' education and employment); Family COVID history update; Working status update; Home learning environment, including private tuition and catch up activities. We also plan to include additional modules as far as possible in the space available, prioritising based on stakeholder feedback, cognitive testing for timing, etc. All interviews will be designed to be 30 minutes in length (as in Wave 1). The core reason for this is acceptability and burden on participants. Given the online-first nature of the data collection, the advice from Kantar is that 30 minutes would be an upper limit to the length of the interview without substantially increasing the risk of partial completion drop-out during the survey, or compromising the data quality (e.g. participants "speeding through" latter sections to get to the end). Achieving this interview length will involve some iteration and feedback from the cognitive testing work. Cases will be issued to households from which we have a Wave 1 response (this is estimated to be approximately 12,000 households), again starting with letters inviting a web response (we anticipate that most Wave 2 interviews will be conducted online) with targeted follow-up using both telephone and face-to-face modes. We anticipate that around 75% of Wave 1 respondents will also participate in Wave 2 (implying a sample size of approximately 9,000). This estimate is based on other similar sequential mixed-mode longitudinal surveys of young people and their parents (that have at least one year between waves of data collection). The telephone and face-to-face phases will then help to maximise the final response rate. As part of Wave 1 we are already taking, and as part of Wave 2 we will continue to take, steps to minimise attrition between the two waves. As with Wave 1, we will deliver high-quality representative data, rigorous analysis of that data, and high-impact dissemination of that analysis. The resulting data will be documented and deposited for the use of the academic community (shared via UK Data Service), and we will produce and publicise initial findings focussed on the study's underlying research question, showcasing COSMO's data and providing policy-relevant evidence based on these analyses. Initial findings will be presented to project partners early in 2023, with a publicly-available report, following supplementary analysis, published soon after. Reports will be supported by academic papers, briefing notes and blog posts in CEPEO's established series, to disseminate findings broadly and accessibly.

Lay abstract: How has the COVID-19 pandemic affected socioeconomic inequalities in life chances, in terms of short-term effects on educational attainment and well-being, and long-term educational and career outcomes? This study will provide immediate findings to this and related research questions about the impact of the pandemic on educational inequality by SES, gender and ethnicity by designing, analysing, reporting on, and archiving a second annual wave of a high-quality new cohort study of pupils in year 11 in academic year 2020-21 across England. This brand new resource will collect data from pupils, parents and schools, augmented with administrative data from DfE's NPD and other sources. Moreover, it will provide the start of a long-term resource for the research community to explore medium/long-term effects as participants move into further and higher education, and the labour market. Led by Dr Jake Anders, with Professor Lindsey Macmillan and Dr Gill Wyness (UCL CEPEO), Professors Lisa Calderwood and Alissa Goodman (UCL CLS) and Carl Cullinane (Sutton Trust), with Kantar as lead fieldwork agency, the team combines world-leading expertise in educational inequalities, social mobility, analysis of longitudinal data, and the design and management of cohort studies. Our project is supported by key stakeholders, including DfE, ADR UK, EEF, TASO, OfS, and HEAT to ensure co-production of policy-relevant evidence. This study will fill an important gap in understanding the medium and long term effects of COVID-19 on young people completing their education and moving into the labour market at this unprecedented time.

Research activity codes: 2.4 SURVEILLANCE AND DISTRIBUTION
Health categories: INFECTION