Title: ANIHWA: Development of Spatial risk assessment framework for assessing exotic disease incuRsion and spread through Europe (SPARE)
Funder: Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs

Abstract: Description Disease incursion and transmission modelling can play an important role in elucidatingimportant pathways and dynamics of transboundary diseases. It is an importantpre-requisite for preparedness and rapid response. These risk assessments are typicallycomplex and data-hungry, limiting the real-world applicability in the event of a noveldisease outbreak. However, the European Union (EU) maintains a number of extensiveand real time datasets. Further data on global presence of disease is available throughdatasets held by the OIE, WAHID.The objective of the project is to develop an overarching model to make rapid use ofavailable metadata to identify pathways of potential risk for classes of diseasetransmission (e.g. vector borne). This framework will provide invaluable information forrisk assessors in the first instances of a disease outbreak where typically information onimports and routes of entry and potential for spread is undertaken on a case-by-case basis.It will also allow for an objective and systematic evaluation to inform risk-based animalhealth and zoonotic surveillance activities, either generically or for specific diseases. Theframework will be readily adaptable not only to specific disease hazards, but also to broadclasses of disease, defined by their mode of transmission.To assure feasibility and focus, the project will group biological hazards into distinctmode-of-transmission classes and develop a case study for each. For the releaseassessment, relevant incidence data from exporting countries will be combined with tradedata, air passenger information, road transport data, and vector movement to identifyimportant trade/movement routes from relevant geographical regions. The exposureassessment will identify the potential spread of disease via competent vectors by memberstate and for exposure of domestic livestock and/or humans by population densitymapping and be used to inform efficient surveillance designs.Encompassing all areas in the project will be a communication network, ensuring that themodelling work builds from previous work in this area and is fit to provide scientificsupport to decision makers. In the event of an incursion, risk management decisions are tobe taken under significant time constraints. The project will specifically address thisdialogue and propose processes taking into account existing organisations and structures,to assure a rapid translation from science into policy. Objective 1.To develop a systematic methodology to rank the risk related to selected pathogensbased on the probability of incursion and taking into account the relevance oftransmission pathways within Europe.2. To apply the approach to selected hazards relevant to participating countries and forthe EU in general (case studies). Case studies will be selected such that differentmechanisms of spread within Europe will be represented.3. To develop the functionalities of the model including data exchange and mergingprotocols for data from different sources, using software available in freeware such thatit can be disseminated to interested member states assuring interfacing with existingearly warning mechanisms


Research activity codes: 2.5 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGIES (AETIOLOGY);8.4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGIES (HEALTH SERVICES)
Health categories: INFECTION