Title: Looked after children in the youth justice system: A mixed methods feasibility study.
Funder: Health and Care Research Wales (Welsh Government)

Abstract: BACKGROUND This research will build upon doctoral research conducted by Hodges (2018) in which data from the risk assessment process used within the youth justice system in England and Wales were used to demonstrate the utility of Bayesian approaches to provide insights into complex social issues. Notably, the original study highlighted the ‘penalty’ associated with being care experienced in the youth justice system. Such was relative to young people whose peers had never been ‘looked after’. AIMS AND OBJECTIVES The study will investigate the extent to which a combination of analysis of routine data and the life experiences of those who have experienced ‘double-system contact’ can inform the development of a strategic multi-agency approach to support children in care through the youth justice system, and hence reduce the likelihood of further criminalisation. As such there are four specific objectives, two of which are methodological in nature: 1) identify ways in which to minimise the negative impact that double-system contact has on the life chances of this vulnerable group. It is anticipated that the learning will also have wider benefits with respect to how services provide timely support to children and young people 2) to evidence where there are further opportunities for joined up working between the youth justice system, social services, education and health services 3) to explore the methodological challenges associated with linking data from the youth offending service with other routinely collected data prior to seeking to extend the research by using national datasets 4) to demonstrate the benefits of applying Bayesian approaches to enhance our understandings of complex social issues and inform evidence-based policy INVESTIGATION PLAN The feasibility study will comprise of 4 work packages (WP1-4), the first two of these relate to data collection. Together WP1 and WP2 will consider which circumstances and events contribute to further offending amongst young people with experience of being looked after, with WP1 specifically focusing upon the contribution can linked routine data make to understandings of the issue. By incorporating the voice of service users into the study as participants in WP2, it provides an opportunity to challenge assumptions made, and to gain insights into their lived experiences of being care experienced young people in the youth justice system. Insights will be elicited through participatory methods designed to explore what this particularly vulnerable cohort think would be most useful in (a) supporting them during their time within the justice system, and (b) preventing further offending. WP3 focuses on the interpretation and development of recommendations, engaging service users to determine key messages and shape their dissemination to practitioners, policy makers and other key stakeholders (WP4). POTENTIAL BENEFITS It is anticipated that there will be methodological advances which will benefit those wishing to tackle complex social issues. However, the principal aspiration of this study is that it will inform the evidence base and thus galvanise momentum to identity ways in which greater joined up working across education, health, social services and justice can occur to mediate the negative impact which the justice system has on the life chances of those who come into contact with it. This in turn will benefit the wider community through improved policy and justice practice.

Lay abstract: This research builds on a proof of concept study conducted by Dr Helen Hodges which took information from the risk assessment process in youth justice to create mathematical models which enabled the probability of further offending behaviour to be considered over time. Typically, what would be expected is that as a youth offending team works with a young person who has offended, the various interventions put in place will reduce the likelihood of further offending to a negligible level. However, it is recognised that having offended, around four out of ten young people go on to offend again, with different rates for boys compared to girls, for different age and ethnic groups, and for those who have a prior history of offending. The proposed research seeks to explore why there are differences in this trend, and in particular, why care experienced young people appear to fair worse than their peers who have never been looked after. This responds to concerns raised by Lord Laming and David Lammy MP about the overrepresentation of care experienced young people and those from BAME backgrounds in the justice system respectively and acknowledges that neither should be treated as a homogenous group. Having identified that care experienced young people are a particularly vulnerable within the youth justice system, a mixed methods approach is being adopted which will draw upon the wealth of routine data collected both within the youth justice system and other sources, and the lived experiences of those who have had this ‘double system’ contact. In particular, the research will seek to establish whether there are key points on the young person’s journey through the youth justice system where they would have benefited from additional support. This might be if they are required to attend court or spend time in custody. There may also be particular combinations of circumstances which, given the chaotic nature of some young people’s lives which can trigger a rapid escalation of risky behaviour. By seeking to understand these ‘crunch times’, there is the potential to develop timely and appropriate support for specific sub-groups. It is anticipated that this will entail greater multiagency collaboration, so that these young people do not fall through cracks in the various systems involved. Given the historical tendency within youth justice for adults to make assumptions about what is ‘best’ for the child, this research has been specifically designed so that children’s voices are heard both in terms of identifying, through arts-based activities, where there are issues, and then in proposing where they would like to see change. We will be working with researchers from CASCADE Voices to develop and prioritise recommendations arising from the research which will be shared with fellow service users, practitioners, policy makers and other key stakeholders via two targeted events and a research report. It is anticipated that the insights gained by using linked administrative data thorough the application of novel statistical approaches such as those conducted under a Bayesian framework will additionally demonstrate their utility for addressing complex social issues. In particular, the fact that the accuracy of any statistical modelling improves as more is established about the characteristics and circumstances of the data subjects is inherently more intuitive lends itself to being applied to a policy area where thinking continues to evolve.

Research activity codes: 2.3 PSYCHOLOGICAL, SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC FACTORS;8.1 ORGANISATION AND DELIVERY OF SERVICES
Health categories: DISPUTED AETIOLOGY AND OTHER