Title: OPerational research for Emergency Response and strategic planning Analysis (OPERA)
Funder: Department of Health and Social Care

Abstract: Infectious diseases require carefully considered plans to mitigate their impact on a population. This project will provide capacity within Public Health England to address the strategic and operational planning questions required by the Department of Health through the use of mathematics and operational research. The modelling work conducted is expected to focus on strategic issues of disease mitigation looking to build realistic models of the proposed mitigation policies and provide a framework for risk assessment of emergency response planning. The intervention delivery step and related logistics are often overlooked and simplified in mathematical modelling of population effects of disease transmission. Developing evidence-based operational research models for drug delivery (antibiotic, vaccine or antiviral) linked with behavioural responses to understand the pinch points in any suggested intervention(s) will be critical, as would similar analyses of other potential non-medical mitigation strategies. This can also include logistic and supply chain aspects arising from pandemic and emergency response scenarios and so advise contingency planning policy. Understanding the critical balance between the impact of an infectious disease, the demand for services and the associated spatial scale and catchment demands for services will be important, particularly with human behavioural responses adding further complexity. The research team is based in PHE, sitting in the Emergency Response Science and Technology Group. This is a multidisciplinary group and so allows access to software developers, geographers, eco-epidemiologists and behavioural scientists. More specifically, the group has a modelling team with a breadth of analytical experience from traditional epidemiology, high performance computing, geo-spatial analysis, mathematics, statistics and operational research. Under this funding these staff would be available to work on questions arising from the Programme officer in the Department of Health to the equivalent of 1 FTE member of staff each year, with senior staff oversight. As a responsive call we would plan for monthly meetings to project manage the work programme with appropriate staff in Department of Health. These monthly meetings will also allow for the construction of a dissemination plan for the outputs, in peer-reviewed articles as well as other mechanisms that may be deemed feasible such as scientific conferences. We also allow for the potential of a series of workshops to gain public involvement to explain the work and seek feedback if the work is not deemed sensitive to the Government and appropriate for public consultation. Results will be disseminated at the annual meeting of the HPRUs on Modelling Methodology and Emergency Preparedness and Response, facilitating informal peer review as well as exploiting the links with academia. Indeed the grant would be affiliated with these HPRUs. A workshop would be planned with senior Department of Health Stakeholders to consider the communication of uncertainty and presentation of it in model based outputs to ensure maximum impact on policy and users.

Lay abstract: Infectious diseases require carefully considered plans to mitigate their impact on a population. This policy research programme will provide capacity within Public Health England to address priority strategic and operational planning questions for the Department of Health, through the use of mathematics, statistics and wider operational research. Specifically this programme aims to address strategic research questions arising from disease mitigation policy issues (such as antibiotic delivery, drug targeting and human behaviour) with evidence-based, data-driven models. These models may be complex simulation-based, stochastic or relatively simple analytical tools. The Science and Technology Group in Public Health England's Health Protection Directorate has been informing and advising policy and planning for public health responses for more than 15 years with a strong track record in delivery of practical results to the Department of Health. This funding would allow us to enhance this capability by providing a means to conduct applied research to consider real world policy questions motivated directly by partners in Department of Health focussing on the proposed policy detail of the interventions proposed. As a funding call that is reactive to the demands of the Department of Health we would plan for monthly meetings with staff in Department of Health to project manage the work programme. These monthly meetings will also allow for the construction of a dissemination plan for the outputs, in peer-reviewed articles as well as other mechanisms that may be deemed appropriate to funder. We also deliver workshops to gain public involvement by explaining the work and seeking feedback (if the work is not deemed sensitive to the Government and thus appropriate for public consultation).

Research activity codes: 7.3 MANAGEMENT AND DECISION MAKING;2.5 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGIES (AETIOLOGY)
Health categories: INFECTION;GENERIC HEALTH RELEVANCE