Title: WatPop: understanding seasonal population change
Funder: Economic and Social Research Council

Abstract: This research project assesses the feasibility of using high temporal resolution water metering data to identify small area seasonal population changes driven by non-residential populations. Our focus is on short term population fluctuations driven by spatial and temporal influxes of tourists to our study area. This research seeks to make novel use of commercial data which are routinely collected by statutory water authorities as part of the supply of clean drinking water to residential and commercial premises. We will use these data to generate valuable area-based indicators of seasonal population fluctuations driven by tourism, drawing on data related to the supply of water to groups of households within District Metering Areas (DMAs). We seek to generate DMA-level hot-spots of tourist activity not captured by traditional data. We will subsequently assess whether smart-meter recorded water supply data can be used to infer tourist-driven population fluctuations at the level of individual dwellings (full consideration for safeguarding these data is provided in the Ethical Information section). We will evaluate whether these data can infer periods of dwelling occupancy associated with second homes and self-catering holiday lets, which are typically drawn from the residential housing stock. These data will also be considered as a tool to identify non-traditional dwellings (e.g. static caravans) being used as a permanent residence. Data are supplied by South West Water (SWW), the statutory water authority for the South West region. The proposed research thus seeks to exploit novel water supply data to generate new spatiotemporal insights into the magnitude and spatial distributions of tourist driven seasonal population fluctuations. Specifically we address two substantive research questions: Research Question 1: To what extent can district metering area (DMA) level high temporal resolution water supply reveal small area seasonal population fluctuations? Research Question 2: Can dwelling level water supply profiles indicate seasonal variations in dwelling occupancy/usage driven by tourist activity? As outlined in the Case for Support (CfS), these research questions will be addressed via two interlinked work packages which exploit these data and draw upon data from existing ESRC investments and insights from ongoing and published research. We benefit from considerable support in kind from SWW as data supplier and project partner, plus additional advisory input and support for dissemination provided by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) (see letters of support). The interest and input from these organisations, who have been actively involved in shaping the CfS and Pathways to Impact (PTI) demonstrate the relevance of these research questions and provides practical support in project delivery and dissemination. The PI and Co-I have > 10 years combined experience in modelling spatiotemporal population dynamics.The impact plan (summarised in the PTI) demonstrates our commitment to ensuring that these objectives are used as a mechanism for wider impact to influence policy and practice in understanding small area seasonal population fluctuations driven by tourism. We anticipate that it will demonstrate the tremendous potential these commercial sector data could offer in inferring area-based and dwelling level population fluctuations and occupancy profiles, with benefits for population enumeration, resource management and service provision.

Lay abstract: Population fluctuations driven by tourism are not captured by traditional population statistics, yet in some localities tourism is responsible for huge population fluctuations during the peak summer tourist season. Tourists staying within camping and caravanning sites, hotels/B&Bs/guesthouses or self-catering accommodation (e.g. rental cottages) are poorly captured within official statistics at the small area (sub-district) level. This is especially true within the counties of Cornwall and Devon where approx. 1 in 20 dwellings represent self-catering tourist accommodation. Tourist accommodation such as self-catering cottages (including those rented through growing peer-to-peer networks such as AirBnB) and second homes are predominantly drawn from the housing stock and very little is known about their location or occupancy patterns. Similarly, dwellings predominantly associated with tourism, such as static caravans, may be used as a permanent residential dwelling with year round occupancy. These properties and their seasonal occupancy patterns present considerable challenges for local population enumeration, and place substantial demands on infrastructure and local service provision (e.g. retail, health, emergency response). These impacts are highly localised and there is a clear requirement to understand the highly seasonal dwelling level occupancy patterns associated with the growing tourist accommodation sector. The research benefits from access to water supply data provided by project partner South West Water (SWW). SWW are the statutory water authority for south west England. Equivalent data are routinely collected by all statutory water authorities and, as non-sensitive and non-personally identifiable operational data, these data could have considerable potential as indicators of small-area or dwelling level population fluctuations driven by tourism. The proposed research aims to assess the feasibility of using water supply data to reveal small area seasonal population fluctuations driven by tourism. Specifically the research aims to: 1. Infer the seasonal and spatial distribution of small-area tourist-driven population fluctuations using area-based measures of water supply. 2. Assess the feasibility of identifying second homes/holiday homes and self-catering rental properties and their periods of occupancy/vacancy from dwelling level smart meter derived water supply records. In addressing these aims a comprehensive methodology is proposed, drawing on the investigators experience in working with similar commercial data from the electricity sector, and in estimating spatiotemporal components of small-area population fluctuations. The proposed research has considerable potential to unlock the value of novel transactional data derived from a commercial sector partner. The ability to link non-sensitive and routinely collected indicators of water supply to underlying population fluctuations could offer considerable benefits to a range of end users. These include the academic community and the Office for National Statistics (ONS). ONS have an ongoing requirement to identify non-residential dwellings to assist with population enumeration and the production of population statistics. As data provider, SWW could also realise considerable benefits from this study, including enhanced understanding of the impact of tourist-driven population fluctuations on the water supply side (provision of potable drinking water) and on the pressures placed on capacity-constrained waste water treatment systems. Our analysis will also add substantial value to a supply-side dataset which offers uniform coverage and oversight from a single authority, linking these data to existing datasets in a way that unlocks their potential in statistical and academic research. The 'Pathways to Impact' outlines a comprehensive strategy to ensure that these benefits are realised.

Research activity codes: 8.4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGIES (HEALTH SERVICES)
Health categories: GENERIC HEALTH RELEVANCE