Title: The air quality health and economic costs and benefits of a zero carbon UK
Funder: Department of Health and Social Care

Abstract: Air pollution, the largest single environmental risk factor in the UK, is associated with the premature deaths of 28,000 – 36,000 people each year and affects the poorest in society the most. Estimates of the costs of air pollution impacts to human health in the UK are in the region of £20 billion per year. Air pollution continues to exceed Government standards designed to protect our health and reducing air pollution requires wide-ranging interventions across the UK._x000D_ Recently, the UK has signed the Paris Climate Agreement and is actively seeking to reduce carbon emissions to zero by 2050. Achieving this goal requires rapid and urgent actions in the coming decades. Reducing carbon emissions has the potential to reduce air pollution levels with associated health and economic benefits to the UK population. These benefits, balanced against the costs, might provide the justification needed to increase the acceptance amongst policy makers and the public to achieve both climate change and air pollution targets. _x000D_ This project will study the air quality, health and economic benefits of a range of future climate policy scenarios in 2030, 2040 and 2050, derived and costed for UK Government by our project collaborator, the Climate Change Committee (CCC). These scenarios have been shaped by PPI in the form of the UK Government consultation on the Clean Air Strategy. Reflecting these responses, we aim to test policies, and research questions, that have strong support from the public and are likely impact on air pollution, including: the rapid uptake of electric vehicles, the widespread use of new domestic heating systems, more walking and cycling, low-carbon shipping, and a switch away from gas cooking to improve indoor air quality._x000D_ The research team is experienced and highly skilled in all aspects of the research having previously developed many of the modelling systems needed, including during a NIHR funded project. We will use UK Government energy models, sophisticated air pollution models, future emissions based on UK and European emissions inventories and health and economic costs and benefits, predicted using UK and Internationally approved methods._x000D_ We will estimate the health and economic benefits of reducing air pollution for 12 policy scenarios aiming to achieve zero carbon emissions by 2050. To do so, we will look at an extended list of health outcomes ranging from reduced birth weight, asthma and lung development in children, heart disease in adults, work days lost and life expectancy. Some policies may in addition have significant social impacts and we will explore how policies will affect different parts of the population, for instance inner cities compared to rural locations, affluent versus deprived neighbourhoods and across different ethnic groups._x000D_ Together with citizen’s and BRC panels we will explore the social implications of the scenarios and their acceptance by the public. We will have ongoing dialog with patients and young people who will inform and shape our study design and dissemination strategy. Dedicated workshops with 15-25 years olds will co-develop an art installation with Science Gallery London (SGL) to foster dialog on the future health impacts on air pollution and climate change amongst young people. We will engage with government departments, public health professionals, other groups and the public, throughout the project, to ensure that our project results are relevant and understandable to all stakeholders.

Lay abstract: Research question: How can the UK’s public health and economic burden from air pollution in 2030/40 and 2050 be reduced by the early introduction of the 2050 net-zero climate policies?_x000D_ Background: Tackling climate change could offer the greatest global health opportunity of the 21st century. To achieve the UK’s net-zero target, policies will need to be more ambitious and implemented earlier than previously planned. Health and economic benefits of the policies will be realised through reduced air pollution with costs and benefits helping justify the early actions. Our partner, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) has developed a number of scenarios for government that show the reduction in GHG emissions and associated costs of a range of climate mitigation measures._x000D_ Aims and objectives: With the CCC, we will use a well-established modelling system to predict air pollution concentrations, health and economic impacts at baseline (2017) and for 12 policy scenarios in 2030, 2040 and 2050. We will explore i) the social acceptance of these policies across demographic and socioeconomically different groups; ii) the distribution of the burden/benefit of policies across different population groups; iii) the acceptability of early adoption amongst policy makers, based on the costs and effectiveness of the scenarios; and iv) the impact of individual actions on air pollution. Together, these aims will inform ways of maximising both GHG and air pollution health benefits of climate mitigation policies._x000D_ Methods: We will combine the CCC systems energy model future forecasts with King’s UK emissions inventory tools and a state of the science air pollution model. We will compare forecasts for ‘committed policy’ with a suite of new, more ambitious policies focusing on the rapid uptake of electric vehicles; the widespread use of new domestic heating systems, more walking and cycling, low-carbon shipping, and a switch away from gas cooking. All policies gained strong public support during government consultation. The health and economic impacts of policies will be evaluated using established methods, including a larger range of health impacts, such as child health. Barriers to implementation will be discussed with the CCC, to indicate the certainty of achieving benefits. Study design, analyses and dissemination strategies will be informed by public and patient engagement, citizen panels and the study steering committee. _x000D_ Timelines for delivery: The 3-year project starting in July 2020, is split into Work Packages (WP) 1 Energy/Emissions and Air Quality modelling – month 1 - 24; WP2 Health, Economic and Socio-economic impacts – month 12 – 30; and WP3 Engagement and Impact – month 1 - 36. Early impact for the project will be via the CCC 2020 annual report to Government. _x000D_ Anticipated impact and dissemination: To link air quality policy makers the Dept. of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) with those acting on climate policy, the Dept. of Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS); to engage with the Dept. of Health and Social Care (DHSC), local authorities, Public Health England (PHE) and directors of public health, and to incorporate our research outputs in the widest possible policy context; to improve the communication of our research messages by engaging with NGO’s, other interested stakeholders and the public. To present findings at conferences and in high impact journals.

Research activity codes: 3.2 INTERVENTIONS TO ALTER PHYSICAL AND BIOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS
Health categories: GENERIC HEALTH RELEVANCE