Title: Public health air pollution impacts of different pathways to meet the UK Climate Change Act commitment to 80% reduction on CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.
Funder: Department of Health (England)

Abstract: The present project is not a typical intervention in the sense that many in this call will be so that the substance of the project does not necessarily fit easily into the headings set out in the Guidance.1. DesignThe design of the project follows the flowchart. The first steps are the identification of a series of scenarios as set out in section C3 to identify the range of options for achieving the greenhouse gas emission target with potentially large differences in public health impacts. The choice of these scenarios will be informed by published policy documents from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) such as The Carbon Plan published in November 2011 and previous reports. These analyses contain only approximate assessments of air quality impacts. The national scale energy scenarios will then be translated into air pollution emissions inventories on a finely resolved grid (approx. 9km finer in cities)over the whole UK based on Kings expertise in building emission inventories in London and the UK. These emission inventories will then be used in a state-of-the-art air quality model (CMAQ) to produce concentrations of harmful air pollutants notably PM2.5 ozone and NO2. There are then established methods to estimate the impacts on mortality and morbidity knowing the concentrations of these pollutants. There is some uncertainty over the health impacts for NO2 but judgements will be made based on the extensive epidemiological and toxicological expertise available at Kings and in the Advisory Board so that best estimates will be made. Having established the public health impacts of a range of scenarios further iterations may be necessary to achieve an optimal strategy but the final stage of the project will be an identification of a strategy to achieve the Climate Change Act target in 2050 while maximising the benefits for public health.2. Setting.DECC has recently published The Carbon Plan setting out some options for scenarios to meet the 2050 target. This analysis is based on a macro-economic study using the MARKAL model to derive national-level energy demand and potential fuel use. While such studies are useful in giving an indication of the strategic needs for energy supply and demand from different sectors the fact that they are carried out at a national scale and that there are no specific details of implementation in terms of technologies and locations means that the air quality impacts they quote are not accurate assessments of the impacts on air quality and public health. They are based on a do-it-yourself calculator on the DECC website to allow anyone to develop their own scenarios to achieve the 2050 target. This system incorporates an option to estimate the health impacts. The estimates are based purely on national level emissions (i.e. the total amount of pollutant released in the atmosphere in the UK) rather than concentrations at ground level and inevitably make many assumptions and approximations in deriving impacts nor would they be able to address potential health inequalities. There is therefore the need to evaluate the public health impacts of the policies in a more accurate and realistic way. This will involve modelling of air quality exposures and impacts at a detailed spatial scale using methods described above and in the detailed project description. The potential policies and scenario/pathway choices are being considered by Government now and over the next few years. There is at present no systematic or detailed analysis of possible public health impacts of these choices. There are important public health issues at stake and a careful analysis of these impacts is necessary for informed choices to be made.3. Target PopulationThe project covers the impacts on public health of the UK population as a whole.4. Intervention being evaluated.The interventions are the policy and scenario options for achieving the Climate Change Act target for CO2 emissions which simultaneously minimize the impacts of air pollution on public health.5. Measurement of outcomes and duration of follow-up.The outcome of the project will be a policy scenario or scenarios which minimize impacts on public health while attaining the Climate Change Act target in 2050 and hence are not measurable in the same sense as shorter-term interventions. However the optimal scenarios identified by the project can be used to assess the policy options being considered by government and the relevant public health improvements achieved or even foregone can be evaluated.6. Sample size.As with 3 above the sample size is not strictly relevant to a project such as this.7. Planned analyses.These have been described in the Design section above. 8. Project timetable. The project is planned to take 3 years; no recruitment is anticipated. The outline timetable is as followsSelection of scenarios (Year1:Q2) and production of pollution emission inventories model set up (Year 1 Q4)Modelling of current and future pollutant concentrations (Year 2 Q4); Fine (20m grid) in London (Year 2 Q4)Exposure modelling; population exposures using hybrid model (Year3 Q1); assessment of exposure inequalities (Year2 Q2)Health outcomes: continuous assessment of literature on exposure response functions from start of project final decision Year 3 Q1; life-table calculations of mortality and morbidity in all scenarios (Year3 Q2); assessment of effects of scenarios on health inequalities (Year3 Q2);cost-benefit analysis (Year3 Q3); identify optimal scenarios for climate and public health (Year3 Q4).


Research activity codes: 3.2 INTERVENTIONS TO ALTER PHYSICAL AND BIOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS
Health categories: GENERIC HEALTH RELEVANCE