Title: Forecasting and providing early warning of Dengue fever outbreaks in Vietnam through Earth Observation
Funder: UK Space Agency

Abstract: Project summary Dengue fever is the most rapidly spreading, mosquito borne, viral disease in the world. Dengue flourishes in urban poor areas, suburbs and rural areas but also affects more affluent neighbourhoods in tropical and subtropical countries. Since 2000, there has been an increase of over 100% in the number of cases of dengue fever in Vietnam alone. Dengue fever occurs in 141 countries, including Vietnam, where there is currently no system to forecast the probability of future dengue outbreaks. This project will provide a tool giving advance warning, of several months, of likely dengue outbreaks. This will greatly assist public health authorities to mobilise resources to those most in need. The same methods could also be used to forecast outbreaks of Zika, which has recently begun to be reported in Vietnam. This is the first time a dengue prediction tool will have been designed that links Earth Observation products and hydro-meteorological variables to vector-borne disease incidence at a local scale. The Earth Observation-based forecasting system will allow decision makers to identify areas of high risk for disease epidemics before an outbreak occurs, in order to target resources to reduce epidemic spreading and increase disease control. The project will also provide projections of dengue fever under a range of climate change scenarios. As the dengue forecasting tool will also include a water assessment module, the work will also help to improve water management in Vietnam’s transboundary river basins where there is a lack of hydro-meteorological information. Satellite solution Earth Observation datasets will be combined with health and water availability information to produce a new integrated dengue forecasting model. The model will link Earth Observation data with climate forecasting and a land-surface model to understand and predict the impacts of primary stressors, (including water availability, land-use, climate), on the likelihood of future dengue epidemics. The tools produced will be used to understand changing health risks posed by dengue for different temporal and spatial scales under future climate change scenarios. The use of Earth Observation data and space technology will greatly enhance the on-the-ground collection of data, especially in the remotest areas of the country. When compared to ground stations (e.g. weather stations), remote-sensing products enable a more accurate representation of the spatial variation of meteorological parameters, which may vary significantly at the local scale, particularly in regions with high elevation variation. Earth Observation data also enables scalability of the solution up to national or even international level. Project impact • At least 10% reduction of the incidence of dengue fever: In the pilot provinces, we expect the incidence of dengue fever to go down over the project lifetime, because local communities will be better able to mobilise to eliminate mosquito-breeding sites in response to early warnings of dengue epidemics. • 15% higher Ministry of Health response rate to dengue outbreaks: increased proportion of dengue warnings that are acted upon by the Vietnamese government by providing early warnings of dengue epidemics at a province level. • At national level, the project will strengthen the capacity of Vietnam for early warning, risk reduction and management of national and global health risks; as well as contribute to increased resilience to future dengue and Zika epidemics by shaping policies related to disease prevention and control under future climate-change scenarios.

Lay abstract: Project consortium of HR Wallingford, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, UK Met Office, Oxford Policy Management alongside international partners United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), World Health Organisation (WHO), The National Institute of Hygiene Epidemiology (NIHE) Pasteur Institute Ho Chi Minh City (PIHCMC) Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and the Environment and Climate Change (IMHEN).

Research activity codes: 3.2 INTERVENTIONS TO ALTER PHYSICAL AND BIOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS;4.1 DISCOVERY AND PRECLINICAL TESTING OF MARKERS AND TECHNOLOGIES
Health categories: INFECTION