Title: Complex systems simulations for intervention development: Human trafficking and conflict-related violence
Funder: Economic and Social Research Council

Abstract: Our project will investigate the use of complex systems methods to address violence and health among hard-to-reach populations. Specifically, this project aims to explore how bayesian networks, agent-based models and social simulations can contribute to the development of interventions to prevent human trafficking and conflict-related violence among mobile, hard-to-reach populations. We have invited an interdisciplinary community of complex systems scientists, violence and public health intervention researchers, and systems visualisation artists to form the Complexity and Violence Network. Many of the Network members are currently conducting intervention research that will serve as potential data sources for simulation models, for example, multi-sector services for trafficking survivors; peace-building in conflict settings; interventions for child domestic workers; mental health interventions for survivors of trafficking and conflict-related violence. By developing and testing simulations of interventions, we intend to evaluate new approaches for testing interventions in the contexts where these abuses are most prevalent, including in the programmes managed by a group of invited stakeholders: the International Organisation for Migration, the SmartLab of the International Labour Organisation, the International Rescue Committee, the Freedom Fund and All Survivors Project. The objectives of the project include: 1. Evaluate the usefulness, reliability, and validity of using dynamic complex systems modelling, such as bayesian networks methods and agent-based social simulations, to develop interventions to prevent human-trafficking and conflict-related violence. 2. Explore the role of systems visualizations as a tool for analysis, validation, and dissemination activities while testing the best approaches to visualising complexity and uncertainty for a wide user audience. 3. Review the feasibility of adopting these methods more widely, depending on the quality and availability of data, the availability of teams with the interdisciplinary research proficiencies needed to execute these methods, and the acceptability of these methods to the academic community, stakeholder groups, and decision-makers. 4. Critically assess the potential benefits, pitfalls, limitations, and future opportunities of using dynamic complex systems modeling and agent-based simulations for research on violence. 5. Identify available secondary data, empirical research, theoretical frameworks, and participatory approaches with stakeholders that are most suitable and sufficient for model calibration and validation, while addressing the research challenges in data collection in hard-to-reach populations.

Lay abstract: Overview & Aim. This project will develop interdisciplinary research methods at the intersection of complex systems, violence, public health interventions, and data visualisation. We aim to evaluate the use of dynamic complex systems modeling to develop interventions for hard-to-reach populations affected by human trafficking and conflict-related violence. The project will address the following questions: What contributions can these novel methods make to the global response to human trafficking and conficlt-related violence? How can evidence-based, accessible and visually powerful complex systems models inform decision-makers working on interventions? Project Justification. Crises, population mobility, violence and exploitation cause deleterious health consequences for millions of individuals, particularly for refugees, low-wage migrant workers and victims of human trafficking [4, 8-10]. Currently, there is limited evidence on effective interventions for these marginalised groups. Scholars emphasise the causal complexity of violence and exploitation, however, most analytical approaches have erroneously assumed linear, average effects of exposures on single outcomes. Experimental approaches to test interventions are often unethical or unfeasible to implement among these hard-to-reach populations. Reductionist research methods, such as traditional epidemiological studies, dangerously oversimplify complex problems, which frequently results in wasted resources and potential harm to already vulnerable groups. Methods. We will invite experts in complexity science, violence research, public health and data visualisation to join the Complexity & Violence Research Network. This Network will jointly design a complex intervention case study that will serve as an evaluated 'proof of concept' for these methods. In brief, our methods will include the following steps: 1. Literature reviews on: 1) complex systems modelling for intervention development, 2) visualising complex systems, and 3) theoretical and epistemological underpinnings of complex systems methods. 2. Joint selection and design of an intervention case study using the Network's existent research on violence and other historical data, empirical data, and theory. 3. Calibrate, visualise and iterate a complex intervention model with dynamic multi-level interactions of exposures, associated harms, and simulated counterfactuals (e.g. intervention). 4. Collaboratively validate the model and evaluate the usefulness, feasibility and ethics of using complex systems methods for intervention development. Evaluation will include Network and Stakeholder reflections and critiques during small in-person meetings and a virtual two-wave Delphi Panel of funders and intervention developers to assess overall methods and usefulness. At every phase, we will critically examine and document the methodological and epistemological contributions, short-comings and risks, and best practice for adopting these methods in interdisciplinary research groups. Outputs. To contribute to our future work and advancements in the field, we will produce: -Academic papers on: 1) the case study findings; and 2) methodological recommendations -Lay guidance on the opportunities and limitations of these methods, with the aim of supporting intervention development, evaluation and policy decisions targeting populations affected by violence, conflict and human trafficking. -A web browser accessible version of the final case study model and visualisations to allow a wide user-audience to engage and play with the model inputs to understand how incorporating dynamic and complex characteristics of a system can explain causal mechanisms and potential effects of interventions. -Articulate future research priorities and identify funding opportunities to pursue longer-term sustainability of the Network and the development of future proposals.

Research activity codes: 3.1 PRIMARY PREVENTION INTERVENTIONS TO MODIFY BEHAVIOURS OR PROMOTE WELL-BEING;8.4 RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODOLOGIES (HEALTH SERVICES)
Health categories: GENERIC HEALTH RELEVANCE