Identification of patients at risk of poor outcomes following hip or knee arthroplasty

Total joint arthroplasties (TJA) are commonly performed procedures for patients afflicted with hip and knee osteoarthritis (OA), and although successful, these surgeries can yield suboptimal results in a non-negligible proportion of patients. In order to improve surgical outcomes, patients at risk of poor results could be targeted with focused interventions. However, the evidence regarding the ability to identify which patients are at risk of poor outcomes is scarce. The objectives of this memoir were 1) to systematically review the literature of preoperative determinants of medium-term patient-reported pain and physical function after total hip arthroplasty (THA) and total knee arthroplasty (TKA) and 2) to develop clinical prediction models allowing the individual identification of patients at risk of poor outcomes following THA and TKA.   Systematic literature searches targeting studies evaluating all studied determinants of pain and function following THA and TKA were performed in four important databases until April 2015 and October 2014 respectively. Moreover, retrospective data from 265 patients having undergone THA at the Hôpital Maisonneuve-Rosemont from 2004 to 2010 was used to develop a preliminary prediction algorithm (PA) to identify patients at risk of poor surgical results. Finally, prospective data from 141 patients recruited at their inclusion on a preoperative waitlist for TKA in three hospitals in Québec City, Canada and followed 6 months postoperatively was used to develop a clinical prediction rule (CPR) to identify patients at risk of poor outcomes  Twenty-two (22) studies evaluating determinants of poor pain and function after THA with moderate-to-excellent methodological quality found that preoperative levels of pain and function, higher body mass index (BMI), greater medical comorbidities, worse general health, lower education level, lower OA radiographic severity and contralateral hip OA were consistently associated with poor THA outcomes. Thirty-four (34) studies evaluating determinants of poor pain and function after TKA with moderate-to-excellent methodological quality identified preoperative levels of pain and function, greater medical comorbidity, lower general health, greater levels of depression and/or anxiety, presence of back pain, greater pain catastrophizing and greater socioeconomic deprivation as consistently associated with worse outcomes.   A preliminary PA consisting of age, gender, BMI and three items of the preoperative Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) was able to identify patients at risk of suboptimal outcomes (worst quartile of the postoperative WOMAC score and perceiving their operated hip as artificial with minor or major limitations) on an average±standard deviation (SD) of 446±171 days after THA with a sensitivity of 75.0% (95% CI: 59.8 – 85.8), a specificity of 77.8% (95% CI: 71.9 – 82.7) and a positive likelihood ratio of 3.38 (98% CI: 2.49 – 4.57). A CPR consisting of five items of the preoperative WOMAC was able to predict the identity of patients awaiting TKA at the highest risk of poor outcomes (worst quintile of the postoperative WOMAC score) six months postoperatively with a sensitivity of 82.1 % (95% CI: 66.7 – 95.8), a specificity of 71.7% (95% CI: 62.8 – 79.8) and a positive likelihood ratio of 2.9 (95% CI: 1.8 – 4.7).   This memoir led to the identification of a list of determinants of pain and disability following TKA and THA with the highest level of evidence to date. Moreover, two clinical prediction models with good predictive capabilities were developed in order to allow the identification of patients at risk of poor outcomes following TKA and THA. These findings could help target the patients most likely to benefit from interventions aimed at diminishing their risk profile and improving surgical outcomes of hip or knee arthroplasties. External validation of these rules is warranted before clinical implementation.

Keyphrases: Total joint arthroplasty, Systematic review, Determinants, Prediction, Postoperative pain, Postoperative function