Dissuasion, sécurité routière et inférence causale : le cas des actions policières contre la délinquance routière

Objectives. The goal of this thesis is to further our understanding about the effect of police activities on traffic collisions in the Province of Quebec. The study also aims to pinpoint conditions that must be met to insure the effectiveness of such police interventions. To do so, we use two case studies. In the first place, we assess the impact of a 60% reduction in traffic citations issued by police officers on collisions with injuries. In this article, we are also able to estimate the respective effects of traffic citations, police interceptions not leading to the issuance of a citation and media coverage. In the second place, we evaluate a road safety program implemented by the Quebec Association of Chiefs of Police (ADPQ) and the Societé de l’assurance automobile du Québec (SAAQ). In both cases, there was a substantial change in the level of traffic citations handed down by police officers. Method. In order to assess the impact of both strategies, data on collisions and citations were aggregated on a monthly basis. These data come from police reports on traffic citations and collisions that are transmitted and managed by the SAAQ. In all cases, we used a quasi experimental design: interrupted time series. Results. Results from both articles show that police officers are key players in a road safety policy. Collisions with injuries vary according to the intensity of police enforcement activities. The first set of analyses establishes that a 60% reduction in the issuance of traffic citations is associated with a 10% increase in collisions with injuries (about 15 additional collisions per month on the Quebec City Police jurisdiction). Furthermore, simple interceptions (not leading to the issuance of a citation) as well as media coverage were not statistically linked to this increase. The second series of analyses demonstrate that the joint strategy of the ADPQ and SAAQ, characterized by an increase in police arrests and media campaigns, was associated with decreases varying between 14 and 36% in collisions with serious injuries in the Province of Quebec.  Conclusion. Results from our analyses show that police activities have an important impact on the road toll. However, some conditions must be met in order to stimulate changes in driver behaviors. First, the intensity of police controls must be substantially leveled up relatively to the previous level. Second, this new level must be maintained for a long lasting period (between 12 and 24 months). By doing so, automobilists will have the opportunity to be exposed the legal threat and consider this threat as credible. Third, the issuance of traffic citations is a key component; the simple presence of police officers is not sufficient to produce a preventive effect on collisions. At last, media campaigns appear to be a central component of police enforcement programs but further studies are need to precisely estimate their role and contribution to collision prevention.

Keyphrases: Collisions, Dissuasion, Road safety, Collisions, Deterrence, Interrupted time-series, Police enforcement activities