Développement et validation d’un index de prédiction des risques d’institutionnalisation et de décès pour le contrôle des variables confondantes non-mesurées dans la population âgée

Confounding is an important challenge in observational studies given that they are induced by characteristics difficult, if not impossible, to measure in administrative claims databases. Prescription channelling is a frequent source of confounding in pharmacoepidemiologic studies, and occurs when the selection of one treatment over another is influenced by overall health status and patient's experience with other treatment options. Among the methods available to control for this bias, comorbidity scores are frequently used. Most of the comorbidity scores published in the literature assess the patients’ health status through drug dispensing or diagnostic codes included in physicians’ billings. These comorbidity scores, however, are controversial since their performance appears to vary according to the population of interest ( example: elderly vs. adult). The objectives of this thesis were to develop, validate and compare the performance of two comorbidity scores (the Geriatric Comorbidity Score based on death, and a comorbidity score based on institutionalization) derived from dispensing data for use in the community-dwelling elderly population. Furthermore, this thesis aimed to evaluate whether the inclusion of characteristics not usually included in administrative claims databases or with a low validity (such as sociodemographic characteristics, sleep or mental disorders) improves the performance of the Geriatric Comorbidity Score.  A nested case-control analysis was conducted within a cohort that consisted of a random sample of 87,389 elderly distributed into a construction cohort (n=61,172; 70%) and a validation cohort (n=26,217; 30%). Sources of data consisted of the databases of the Régie de l’assurance maladie du Québec (RAMQ). To be included in the study, subjects had to be 66 years and older and covered by the public drug insurance program of Quebec between 1st January 2000 and 31st December 2009. Scores were developed using the Framingham Heart Study method, and their performances were assessed using the c-statistics and receiver operating curves (ROC). For the last objective, a prospective cohort study was performed using the participants in the Étude sur la Santé des Aînés (ESA) (n=1,494) which covered the period ranging from 2005 to 2008. Study variables included marital status, social support, mental health as well as sleep disorders.  The comprehensive literature review conducted in the thesis and our results revealed that factors associated with death greatly differed from those associated with institutionalization, which supported the need to develop two distinct scores. Performances of the institutionalization score were, however, not statistically different from the death score (institutionalization c-statistic = 0.79; 95% CI: 0.77-0.81; death c-statistic= 0.75; 95% CI: 0.73-0.78). The Geriatric Comorbidity Score (death score) revealed a better performance than the Chronic Disease Score, which has been widely used in the literature (c-statistic= 0.47; 95%CI: 0.45-0.49). The inclusion of variables not recorded in claims databases yielded an improvement of the death score of only 11%, with marital status and social support being mainly responsible for the improvement. In terms of achievement, this thesis made three contributions. First, it was shown that the performance of comorbidity scores based on death vary according to the study population, reinforcing the need for specific scores, such as the Geriatric Comorbidity Score which was developed here. Second, factors associated with the risk of institutionalization were different than those associated with the risk of death in the elderly population, which supported the development of an institutionalization score. Even if the performance of death and institutionalization scores were similar, the latter would be preferred in studies that aim at assessing the effect of drugs on institutionalisation in the elderly. Lastly, the results indicate that the absence of some characteristics in the administrative databases do not appear to have a major impact on the performance of scores based on claims data. Consequently, comorbidity scores based on drug dispensing data remain important research tools for pharmacoepidemiologic studies conducted through health claims databases.

Keyphrases: Index, Comorbidity, Pharmacoepidemiology, Elderly, Death, Confusion bias, Performance, Score