Voices, votes and violence : essays on select dynamics of electoral authoritarian regimes

“Voices, Votes and Violence: Essays on Select Dynamics of Electoral Authoritarian Regimes” concerns the expression of commonly excluded voices under electoral authoritarian (EA) regimes, from the challenges of institutionalized processes (specifically, elections and voting) to rationalizations for extra-institutional behaviors (notably political violence). The essays are presented in two parts. The first two essays in Part I concern frameworks for studying incumbent and opposition behaviors in semi-authoritarian states. The three essays in Part II examine a specific sub-field of EA regime dynamics: political participation of women. Each chapter provides findings as summarized below. Chapter 1 explores methodological challenges in studying semi-authoritarian regimes (such as EA) by critically engaging with a leading framework of analysis in the field. An independent replication of Levistky and Way’s 2010 classification model of competitive authoritarianism (CA) reveals coding discrepancies in the authors’ case selection which impact the broader theory of CA regimes and have methodological implications for the comparative study of hybrid regimes in general. Chapter 2 examines opposition party behavior under EA regimes. I hypothesize that EA oppositions’ electoral and regime objectives (“dual games”) align under conditions where there is relative certainty of outcomes but diverge where either regime or electoral uncertainty is greater, resulting in four identifiable behavior types. Testing the theory on 55 elections in 29 sub-Saharan African states, I demonstrate that the four behavior types are functions of the degree of state repression and the level of organizational capacity of the opposition.  Chapter 3 reveals and defines the gendered nature of electoral violence (a common feature of EA regimes). An original database of over 2000 incidents of election violence in six countries as well as fieldwork from over fifty countries reveal the existence of significant gender-differentiation in the manifestation of election violence as well as the presence of a previously unrecognized phenomenon, gender-based election violence (GBEV). The chapter introduces definitions, a taxonomy and typology of both forms of violence. Chapter 4 delves deeper into the topic by examining the complex relationship between information and communication technologies and gendered election violence. The notions of gender-differentiated and gender-motivated violence are extended to political violence in this chapter. Information and communication technologies are found to both facilitate gendered forms of political violence as well as empower resistance and violence mitigation. The final chapter provides the solution to a longstanding puzzle of political exclusion in EA (and other) regimes by demonstrating the complementarity of specific forms of temporary special measures (TSMs) in electoral systems based on single-member districts (SMDs). The chapter presents a five-part classification of TSM options in SMDs, including an original interpretation of “Alternate Thresholds”. Analyzing the five TSM types through country case studies, Chapter 5 illustrated that discrepancies in the adoption of quotas between electoral systems are the result a knowledge gap rather than intrinsic traits of electoral systems, as previously assumed.

Keyphrases: electoral authoritarianism, opposition behavior, dual game theory, election violence, gender, information and communication technology, temporary special measures (TSMs), quotas