«Partir ou rester?» : évaluer les facteurs de risque individuels et situationnels afin de mieux intervenir auprès des jeunes qui fuguent des centres de réadaptation

The subject of runaways is an important preoccupation for child welfare services responsible for youth protection. In Québec, one in four youths living in a residential treatment center will experiment running away. Although these statistics tend to remain stable, in recent years an increase in absences has been observed.  This can lead us to believe that those who leave the substitute care, do it more frequently.   Managing risks in the youth protection system is a high stakes endeavor. In fact, runaway behaviors can potentially compromise the security and development of the youths for whom child welfare services have a responsibility. An optimal management of these risks implies evaluating them. Such an evaluation must not only determine the factors predisposing the youth to run away, it must also aim to identify the characteristics of the environment, how they influence the phenomena and eventually how they contribute to heighten or lessen these risks.  A systemic understanding of the different individual and environmental risk factors, influencing and interacting with one another, must be considered when managing such risks in a protection setting. Considering these overall characteristics and their predictive value, this thesis has targeted two main objectives, based on a mix-méthod.  A first goal was to develop a clinically valid tool evaluating the risk of running away for youths living in a residential treatment center. Applicating a model initially including 25 risk factors, diversified psychometric analysis measured the fidelity and predictive validity of the Guide d’évaluation du risque de fugue. In particular, ROC curves analysis helped determine that the model offering the best predictive value uses 15 risk factors. Of these 15 factors, 8 are pertaining to the quality of the relationships the youth has with his environment (quality of therapeutic alliance, conflictual relationships, peer and social relationships, etc…). This supposes that to better prevent the phenomena of running away in these contexts, a large part of these evaluations must take into account how the youth interacts with his environment.  In second place, 15 interviews were conducted with key actors to better understand the characteristics and organisation of these residential treatment centers, and eventually their incidence on the risks of runaway behaviors.  The careful study of situational factors has helped understand the influence of the actual presence of runaway behaviors, the physical environment, the teams of professionals; the characteristics of psychosocial treatment and finally the organisational components, and how they can prevent or increase these risks. These interviews have also highlighted the importance of the exterior environment in which the child welfare system is rooted and how this context affects the comprehension on these behaviors.  Ultimately the results of this thesis lead us to believe that managing the risks of runaway behaviors not only implies evaluating the youth’s characteristics and how they predispose them to such behaviors but equally implies that situational factors have a role in preventing or increasing the risks.  Although it should be mentioned that this evaluation is incomplete without the analysis of the exterior environment’s components and how they will facilitate or limit the risk management of professionals and child welfare organisations.

Keyphrases: Fugue, Évaluation du risque, Runaway, Residential treatment centers, Child protection services, Risk evaluation, Risk management