MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by salamo | 2026-02-24 01:37:19+00:00
You'll also have some fun pinning down the difference between an "inaccuracy", a "mistake", and a "blunder". These are meaningful delineations for humans but not for a chess algorithm. Objectively, any amount of centipawn loss either changes the best possible outcome for the player or it does not.

So in practice, a drop in win probability greater than 14% is considered a blunder on Lichess.

For reference, lichess uses the following function to map centipawn advantage to the probability bar, derived from observed outcomes: https://github.com/lichess-org/lila/pull/11148

From an ML perspective, this is basically logistic regression with a single feature. However, once we leave the realm of theoretical centipawn value and begin to optimize predictive power, we could imagine adding in other things like the players' ELOs or time remaining per player, etc.

I think there are some interesting theoretical differences between predicted win probability derived from Stockfish CP and actual outcomes. As in, you could even imagine predicting positions where certain players struggle and steering them towards those positions. [0]

[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KgOC1D8wkyE
by sjaiisba | 2026-02-24 01:38:12+00:00
> As people say - something changed around Dec/Jan

Yes, Anthropic decided they wanted to IPO and got the hype machine in full swing.

Don’t get me wrong LLMs are here to stay but how we’re currently using them is likely going to change a lot. Stuff like this:

> in general everybody has to do bottom up cleanup and documentation of all their projects, setup skills and whatnot and that's assuming their corp is ok with it, not blocking it

Is not needed to get a lot out of AI, and is mostly snake oil. Integrating them with actionable feedback is, but that takes a lot of time and rethinking of some existing systems.

I don’t like the Internet analogy cause that’s like producing a new raw material, but AI is gonna be like Excel eventually (one of the most important pieces of software in the world).
by wefzyn | 2026-02-24 01:38:18+00:00
Andrej Karpathy said that major revolutions like the Internet, smartphones, and AI often don’t show up clearly in GDP statistics, even when they radically change how people work. GDP measures total spending, not productivity or usefulness. These revolutions improved efficiency and quality of life, but GDP mostly continued along its long-term trend.

See his interview in Dwarkesh's podcast: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c0-0gGdDJyE&t=4983s
by toomuchtodo | 2026-02-24 01:38:18+00:00
Use Redis as a shared metrics data store to coordinate back off in the aggregate and to track collective throughput (and the delta between functional baseline and when you’re exceeding counterparty limits). Make workers aware of allowance state, and responsive to it and limits.

Via this mechanism, you should be able to pause your worker fleet as it scales out as well as regulate its request rate while monitoring on health of the steady state interface between your workers and other systems.
by arctic-true | 2026-02-24 01:39:19+00:00
There is definitely growing hesitancy in the market, but pulling back at this juncture could set off a full-on race to the bottom, because it would disprove the original point (“all the smart tech companies are all-in, so there must be profit at the end of the tunnel”). Right now, they can point to the skeptics as bears or doomers or whatever. The first big tech company to drop its capex will pierce the aura of invincibility and make the moderate retreat from the exuberant highs of late 2025 look like a blip on the radar.
by seangrogg | 2026-02-24 01:39:25+00:00
SKG is basically "right-to-repair" but for games. I do contend that if your phone breaks and the company says "we won't fix it and you aren't allowed to" then the government isn't doing its job. On the same token, if a game that you purchased turns off their servers and says "we won't run it and you aren't allowed to" then the government isn't doing its job.

Now, how I would be able to run it is a very open question and I do agree there are some ways that are more reasonable asks than others. But the present-day status quo of "company says suck eggs and you just have to deal with it" is not an acceptable final state.
by reliabilityguy | 2026-02-24 01:40:12+00:00
> You address lies with truth. I don't see what requiring videos of your face and photo ID has to do with this.

How do you address lies with truth if the distribution of lies and truth is uncontrollable?

> We're talking about the US. Many other governments (and governed people) do not agree that freedom of speech is important or even desirable.

The example of Russia has nothing to do with freedom of speech. Read again.

Moreover, as I stated earlier, we already have documentation requirements for 2nd amendment, so why not for the 1st? Asking for ID to post on the internet does not preclude you from exercising your rights.

> The way out of that bed is sustained, good faith, cogent discussion, rather than building dossiers and the automated infrastructure for information restriction.

How can you make a good faith argument if the whole space is polluted by bots, trolls, and various influence groups? Perhaps your argument is in good faith, and factually correct, but for one of you there may be 10,000 bots. So, what value is in your voice?

> But, in truth, most of the folks pushing these systems aren't interested in cogent discussion and are arguing for them in some combination of ignorance and bad faith.

This quite a reach. I personally believe that people who have zero chance to get a real life backlash in their community will engage in bad faith arguments, etc.
by georgemcbay | 2026-02-24 01:40:37+00:00
> What I'm much less convinced of is that it will prove valuable in a way that's even remotely within the same order of magnitude as the investments being pumped into it.

I think there are two layers of uncertainty here. One is, as you say, if the value is worth the investment. The other and possibly bigger issue is who is going to capture the value and how.

Assuming AI turns out to be wildly valuable, I'm not at all convinced that at the end of this money spending race that the companies pouring many billions of dollars into commercial LLMs are going to end up notably ahead of open models that are running the race on the cheap by drafting behind the "frontier" models.

For now the frontier models can stay ahead by burning heaps of money but if/when progress slows toward a limit whatever lead they have is going to quickly evaporate.

At some point I suspect some ugly legal battles as some attempt to construct some sort of moat that doesn't automatically drain after a few months of slowed progress. Google's recent complaining about people distilling gemini could be an early signal of this.

I have no idea how any of that would shake out legally, but I have a hard time sympathizing with commercial LLM providers (who slurped up most existing human knowledge without permission) if/when they start to get upset about people ripping them off.
by antisol | 2026-02-24 01:41:50+00:00
Listen carefully: OpenClaw is basically a real person you have hired, whose capabilities are vast and fast — in ways both good and potentially bad. But you’ve hired it in the absence of a resume or behavioral background check results.

...Except that a human is culpable and subject to consequences when they directly disobey instructions in a way that causes damage, particularly if you give them repeated direct instructions to "stop what you are doing".

And also, when it says "You're absolutely right! I disobeyed your direct instructions causing irreparable damage, so sorry, that totes won't happen again, pinky promise!", those are just some words, not actually a meaningful apology or promise to not disobey future instructions.

Personally, I question the usefulness of an AI assistant that can't even be trusted to add an entry to my calendar.

you withhold and limit access to your devices, your account credentials, and even its own full account permissions, from the start, to the same extent that you would withhold such access from a new hire.

No, like I pointed out, a new hire has signed an employment agreement filled with legalese and is subject to legal ramifications if they delete all my emails while I'm screaming "stop what you are doing!". And if they say "oh, sorry, I totally misunderstood your instructions, that won't happen again" and then do it again, they're committing a crime.

What's the point of hiring a personal assistant who is incapable of sending email? Isn't that precisely what you hire a PA to do?

Would you let a human being with the aforementioned characteristics — brilliant and capable, but lacking a resume or behavioral background check results — directly use your personal computer or your work computer?

No. And I also wouldn't hire that person as a PA.
by ajross | 2026-02-24 01:41:56+00:00
> Has the lack of crypto ever stopped this from happening?

Undeniably yes, given the number of fraud and money laundering convictions achieved over the years.

> cases of gold bars [...] are actually MUCH less tracable.

Laughably false, given the difficulty of liquidating such things without detection. If you have to store your ill-gotten gains in your own home you've lost the opsec battle already.

I think you're just saying gold bars aren't digital information so don't a priori show up in a query somewhere. But the question that actually needs to be asked is "Did Menendez get caught with gold bars in his home?"

Yeah, he did. Ergo, they aren't very "untraceable" in practice.
by epic_ai | 2026-02-24 01:43:12+00:00
Over the past 18 months, we’ve seen an explosion of “AI startups.”
But after auditing 47 early-stage AI SaaS products, here’s what stood out:
72% were thin wrappers around GPT or Claude APIs
64% had no proprietary data
81% had no defensible moat
Most had <6 months runway at current burn
The uncomfortable reality:
We’re in an “AI veneer” cycle, not an infrastructure cycle.
The majority of products:
Call an API
Add UI
Add billing
Market as “AI-powered platform”
The margin compression problem is obvious:
OpenAI lowers price → your margins die
A better model launches → your differentiation dies
Big player clones you → distribution wins
This isn’t anti-AI.
It’s anti-illusion.
The real value layer is:
Workflow integration
Network effects
Proprietary data loops
Embedded distribution
For example, while building EPIC(https://no-edit.lovable.app)(we’re experimenting with workflow-level integrations rather than raw prompt wrappers), we realized the model layer is becoming commoditized faster than most founders expect.
The question isn’t: “Can I build with GPT?”
It’s: “Do I own anything if GPT improves tomorrow?”
That’s the real risk founders aren’t pricing in.
We’re watching a gold rush where the shovel sellers (model providers) are compounding, and most miners are building on rented land.
Curious how others are thinking about defensibility in AI SaaS right now.
by szmarczak | 2026-02-24 01:44:07+00:00
No, I do know how they work. Normal startups close the second they become unprofitable because investors don't like losing money. Or find someone that's willing to pull your sinking ship up (a buyout). Also, if you intentionally lose investors' money, they have the right to sue you for damages. Losing hundreds of thousands of dollars is pretty normal in failing startups, but it's not like they don't have any value. There's a difference between a half-baked legitimate product and a snake oil. However, losing tens of millions of dollars is not normal.

> guaranteed 2x returns, which would have been a scam

They haven't written 2x, but they have promised profits (which is more than 1x): "Sit Back and Watch Your Wealth Grow". That's literally a Ponzi scheme. They're no Medallion Fund because if the algorithm was actually working they wouldn't need to attract people to get more money.

Maybe you should get off HN from time to time and face a reality check.
by webprofusion | 2026-02-24 01:44:25+00:00
I'm guessing the music will be much like this one (more about fun than having the best actual songs) but didn't know there was a track with both Chris Poland and Marty Friedman:
https://open.spotify.com/track/7yDb6NVzvuUVuvLyTSfDhz?si=0c5...
by majorchord | 2026-02-24 01:45:04+00:00
How is flock cameras existing, a breakdown in the rule of law? As far as I know they are not technically breaking any laws, even though I disagree with their use in principle.

Some might think it is somehow a Fourth Amendment violation, but I'm pretty sure it has already been ruled on enough times now that there is no expectation of privacy on government-owned roads, except for what's inside your car.
by ericbuildsio | 2026-02-24 01:45:33+00:00
Giving OpenClaw permissions on a non-sandboxed account seems like it would massively fragilize my digital life

Small upside: it saves a few minutes here and there on some tasks (eg. checking into flights)

Massive tail-risk downside: it does something like what's linked in the tweet (eg. deletes my entire inbox)
by eriscorp | 2026-02-24 01:45:37+00:00
I fell in love with the web as kid in the 90s, it was such a amazing world to explore and also help to grow (even if... some was just a page with no other information than that the page in question was under construction together with appropriate gifs to make sure there was no misunderstandings).

It was so cool to go from my mom being worried about the phone bill when calling relatives within the country to chatting with people from all over the world and how that world just kept opening up, in so many ways. I really thought it would lead to some Star Trek future where the collective knowledge of mankind ends all conflicts and make fantastic things happen.

Maybe it was me growing up and understand that people for some reason generally don't want that in favor of cats and porn but it feels like something clearly changed after 9/11, the web became less cozy, but then I experienced something similar after Snowden, the feel of the web changed again. Guess new tools,techniques and tactics had to be developed?

But like...

How did we go from saving chat-logs from #channel online to a reality where a dedicated group generating could-be-true videos aimed at the circle of a leader or demographic, armed with some web agents and tokens, might be able to troll a country into war?

This is such a strange timeline to experience.
by ropetin | 2026-02-24 01:45:38+00:00
Similar thing at my company. Someone /very/ high up in the org chart recently said to the entire company that OpenClaw is the future of computing, and specifically called out Moltbook as something amazing and ground breaking. There is literally no way security would ever let OpenClaw in the same room as company systems, never mind actually be installed anywhere with access to our data.

It should be noted that this exec also mentioned we should try "all the AIs", without offering up their credit card to cover the costs. I guess when your base salary is more than most people make in a life time, a few hundred bucks a month to test something doesn't even register.
by mattclarkdotnet | 2026-02-24 01:47:00+00:00
What? Nobody says cubic zirconia is an artificial diamond, it’s just a different shiny crystal. We have loads of actual artificial diamonds, so cheap you can get a cutting disc made fr9m them for $10 at home depot.

And nobody working in the space either as ML/AI practitioners, or as philosophers, or as cognitive scientists, even thinks we know what consciousness is, or what is required to create it. So there would be no way to tell if an AI is conscious because we haven’t yet managed to reliably tell if humans, or dogs, or chimpanzees or whales are conscious.

The claim that is often made is that more work on the current generation of AI tech will lead to AGI at a human or better level. I agree with Yann Lecun that this is unlikely.
by ndriscoll | 2026-02-24 01:47:16+00:00
I don't see why that would be the case. It's reasonable to allow services that have a policy forbidding such content and make good faith efforts to moderate and remove it promptly. Seems analogous to e.g. a building being vandalized with lewd drawings. Or laws about user submitted child pornography.

I expect most forums or discussion groups in practice actually don't have child-inappropriate content, and already moderate such things because the members don't want it.
by akst | 2026-02-24 01:47:29+00:00
The whole obnoxious dogmatic evangelicalism thing is definitely a wider human phenomenon outside software and junior devs picking up new languages.

Definitely isn’t one of those things that can be solved, but it’s helpful to be aware of and process on that basis. I think some personalities are likely disproportionately vulnerable to this behaviour, but I think it largely has a positive core of enthusiasm. It’s probably more a matter of those individuals growing in self awareness.

Perhaps we saw a big wave of that with rust because it meant a lot of things to a lot of different people, some more equip to express their enthusiasm with some self control than others.
by tombert | 2026-02-24 01:47:56+00:00
I'm not sure how practical it actually is, but I did play with it in an emulator and it's pretty impressive for what it is. I mean, the C64 really should not be capable of preemptive multitasking, but they somehow pulled it off.

It's extremely slow, which isn't surprising, but I still think it's pretty neat.
by tptacek | 2026-02-24 01:49:13+00:00
Right, you're the 2nd most liberal muni in Illinois after us. But Wilmette still has theirs, just like River Forest still has their ALPRs. I think a lot of munis will drop Flock, because of the bad PR, but they're just going to stand up no-name ALPRs.

(For people unfamiliar with Chicagoland, Oak Park borders Chicago to its west and is like our version of Park Slope, and Evanston, which houses Northwestern University, borders Chicago to the North and is like our Westchester County.)

I was pretty irritable about us cancelling our Flock contract. We did a metric fuckton of regulation on our cameras; I think we may have had the most sophisticated ALPR regulation of any ALPR in the country (granted, that's a statement about how little regulation there is of them, but still). We could have disabled our cameras but kept the contract, kept our standing as a municipality that uses Flock, and then shopped our ordinances and police general orders to the neighboring municipalities.

Instead, we performatively cancelled our contract, while remaining 4.5 square miles surrounded on all sides by totally unregulated ALPRs.
by brokencode | 2026-02-24 01:49:40+00:00
You must have a really bleak view on life to think an adult should never get excited like a child.

Adult life doesn’t have to be boring drudgery, you know. I mean, it mostly is, but the rare moments of childlike joy and excitement are some of the best parts.

As far as the putting a damper on anything, nope it doesn’t. And it never will.

The people excited about AI are excited because of the impacts they see on their own jobs and daily lives. We don’t care what Goldman Sachs has to say about productivity.
by mrtksn | 2026-02-24 01:50:40+00:00
> Normal startups close the second they become unprofitable because investors don't like losing money

Completely and demonstrably wrong. Startups lose money all the time, thats the idea behind taking other people’s money. Go check out how much money Amazon, Uber, OpenAI and pretty much all startups lost before becoming profitable or are still losing.

I’m sorry I see you are clueless. I wouldn’t be arguing with you any further.
by ainch | 2026-02-24 01:51:27+00:00
Amodei says yes - each model pays for its training. But they're scaling up investment for each new run, so they're still happily in the red.

And also that may be the case for Anthropic who have fewer free users, a large enterprise business, and less generous rate limits on their subscriptions. I don't know if OpenAI or Google have commented. I suspect OpenAI is in a worse position given their massive non-paying consumer base.
by pdpi | 2026-02-24 01:52:30+00:00
I would never have expected that "Shatner and Henry Rollins ranting while Adrian Belew and Matt Chamberlain go absolutely wild on guitar and drums respectively" would be anywhere close to as good as it is.

Incidentally, Rollins talking about the recording[0] of it is freaking hilarious.

[0]: https://youtu.be/8zL3wtNrq00?t=4616
by sendkamal | 2026-02-24 01:52:40+00:00
This is great insights @vicchenai. I just made it in a whim. I asked Gemini for suggestions and it presented few and I picked this one because there didn't seem to be good players out there. There is layoffdata and warntracker and all but they were built using hand coding :) it probably took them quite long to have it done. This is a challenging thing - 50 states having different data formats and having to poll them daily. Data cleaning is another thing. Historical data is also a thing. Plus all the blogs, reports, data presentation and api endpoints.

If it all can be done in a weekend without having to write a single line manually, sky is the limit no? Anybody having an idea can make these thing happen. I am not expecting it to make any money and it was a learning project but I do see some value for certain people.

Insurance brokers would benefit if they are first to know so they coudl target these layed off people. Recruiters the same and definitely hedge funds, short shellers and quant. Gemini tells me data is the new oil ! I am convinced.
by wwweston | 2026-02-24 01:53:23+00:00
I'd guess this is a bet on which market is more lucrative:

* domain experts paying for tooling that will enhance their productivity

* capital/management class hoping to significantly replace domain experts

Software devs have been a famously tough market to sell tools to for a long time, so the better bet is B. Plus, the story on B is fantastic for fundraising; if there's a 10% chance that it checks out, you want some part of that as your capital portfolio.
by heffer | 2026-02-24 01:53:37+00:00
It's clickbait. The "driver" is actually a rather comprehensive kernel patch that modifies existing GPLv2 kernel code, so by its very nature it is at least GPLv2 (original parts may be dual licensed by the vendor if they want to, but they can't not make it GPLv2).

What this person paid $40,000 for is access to development kits for certain hardware, which with chip vendors like that usually also comes with support. The vendor cannot prevent you from exercising your GPLv2 rights after they hand you the code.
In fact, if you manufacture and distribute a device that uses these kernel patches it becomes your obligation to enable your customers to exercise their GPLv2 rights. Chip manufacturers know this and (if they are somewhat reputable) usually license their code appropriately.