MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by biophysboy | 2026-01-06 04:50:58+00:00
> So, this is how I’m thinking about AI in 2026. Enough of the predictions. I’m done reacting to hypotheticals propped up by vibes.

A lot of the predictions come from interviews and presentations with top tech executives. Their job is to increase the perceived value of their product, not to offer an objective assessment.

I've gotten a lot of value out of reading the views of experienced engineers; overall they like the tech, but they do not think it is a sentient alien that will delete our jobs.

I have also gotten a lot of value out of Cembalest's recent "eyes on the market", which looks at the economic side of this AI push.
by hillcrestenigma | 2026-01-06 04:50:58+00:00
I get the point you are making, but the hypothetical question from your manager doesn't make sense to me.

It's obviously true that any of your particular coworker wouldn't be useful to you relative to an AI agent, since their goal is to perform their own obligations to the rest of the company, whereas the singular goal of the AI tool is to help the user.

Until these AI tools can completely replace a developer on its own, the decision to continue employing human developers or paying for AI tools will not be mutually exclusive.
by saxenaabhi | 2026-01-06 04:52:02+00:00
> "materially change the output of companies" seems fairly defined and didn't happen in most cases. I guess some kicked out more slop but I don't think that's what he meant.

There are plenty of people including me here saying it did made them vastly productive. We cut our dev to just me, and yet shipped way more features. In our segment of b2b saas we are nearing feature parity with decade old market leaders. In just one year. And I think and hope that this year we would overthrow them(in our geographical region since we are in somewhat regulated industry).
by Mistletoe | 2026-01-06 04:52:30+00:00
Idk my Dad worked on a dairy farm part time when I was a kid and I've never heard of that. That's just not how teats and udders work. There is nothing here about how the cow makes too much milk and will drown the calf.

https://www.fwi.co.uk/livestock/youngstock-management/pros-c...
by tptacek | 2026-01-06 04:53:57+00:00
Yeah, I mean, they're a wretched hive of scum and villainy, I preemptively agree. I'm just saying, insider bets don't have the same ethical or legal valence on a prediction market that they do in the financial markets (even there, at least in the US, the principles underlying insider trading law are really poorly understood.)
by ineedasername | 2026-01-06 04:54:00+00:00
They’re making very direct, no caveat statements though, using words like “now”, “immediately”, and “in production”. So if it’s a bluff, they haven’t left themselves much wiggle room with weasel words. I don’t see any wiggle room. And if that’s that case then a failure to deliver would be have to be more “wow, yeah, turns out forgot a decimal point and messed up some imperial-metric confusion”. Or “my teenager kid found the blog unlocked and thought it would be awesome no-press-is-bad-press PR stunt. Sorry”
by schoen | 2026-01-06 04:54:28+00:00
As I said in a parallel comment, Hanson was also thinking about scientific questions, where there are asymmetries in knowledge but people can often invest in research that improves their own knowledge (like by performing an experiment or a scientific expedition or something). So, Hanson believed that prediction markets could incentivize people to invest in scientific research in order to get an edge over other market participants in such questions. That doesn't exactly make them insiders, though.

Interestingly, it doesn't necessarily incentivize them to publish the detailed results of their investigations. They're incentivized to reveal what they expect to happen (based on how they bet), but not necessarily incentivized to reveal why they think so, or how they know. E.g. if you became able to predict the weather more accurately than other models over some timeframe, prediction markets would incentivize you to reveal (some aspects of) your predictions, but not your method for making those predictions.
by tomhow | 2026-01-06 04:57:25+00:00
Please stop posting these abusive comments or we'll ban the account. Thoughtful critique is fine. Fulmination and flamebait is not. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

We detached this comment from https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46489151 and marked it off topic.
by jolmg | 2026-01-06 04:57:26+00:00
> I implore everyone (to the point of annoyance) to check out some of the cheaper Garmin smart watches. They use MIP displays so the battery life runs about 2 weeks

Same deal with the watch of the article. It uses the same display: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46471292

The difference between such Garmin watches and Pebble Round 2 seems to be trading off hardware like built-in GPS and NFC for open source software (and thinness possibly). 100% worthwhile trade IMO.
by hattmall | 2026-01-06 04:57:38+00:00
Thanks for that. It's a really interesting data point. My takeaway, which I've already felt and I feel like anyone dealing with insurance would anyway, is that the industry is wildly outdated. Which I guess offers a lot of low hanging fruit where AI could be useful. Other than the email drafting, it really seems like all of that should have been handled by just normal software decades ago.
by schoen | 2026-01-06 04:58:03+00:00
It's funny to think that the most villainous markets might be some of the humorous prop bets where the person creating the market (or a friend of the person creating the market) literally completely controls the outcome. Like "will I say SOME_WEIRD_WORD on stage at the conference tomorrow?".

Although maybe the villainy would come in more from deceiving people about whether or not an event was under your control, more than merely encouraging people to bet on an event that was clearly and unambiguously under your control.
by mrtksn | 2026-01-06 04:58:47+00:00
No, I don't agree that they should prevent it.

I'm not in CP so I don't try to make it generate such content but I'm very annoyed that all providers are trying to lecture me when I try to generate anything about public figures for example. Also, these preventive measures are not working well at all, yesterday I had one denying to generate infinite loop claiming its dangerous.

Just throw away this BS about safety and jail/fine whomever commits crime with these tools.
by tennysont | 2026-01-06 04:58:57+00:00
I couldn't really follow the technical details of the malware from the article, so I found what seems to be the first major report on the topic:

https://blog.xlab.qianxin.com/kimwolf-botnet-en/#network-pro...

That article has a more technical lens. It focuses primarily on the size and detection evasion methods of Kimwolf, rather than some notable (and definitely not unique) method of spreading.

Without looking too deeply, I'm going to assume that this is a successful botnet because it managed to get into product supply lines at big box stores and in app store games, rather than some clever virus that is spreading across the world.

I hope someone will correct me if I am mistaken!
by ndiddy | 2026-01-06 04:59:47+00:00
The whole point of the DMCA takedown process is that it's rubber-stamp on the part of the service provider and all decisions regarding validity are left up to the courts. That's why there's a provision built into the law for the person receiving the claim to file a counter-notice to get their content reinstated. If Google is inserting themselves in the middle and denying claims because they don't believe that the person filing them is authorized to do so, I'm not sure whether that's proper procedure under the OCILLA.
by jonas21 | 2026-01-06 05:01:42+00:00
The "obvious" solution that I think you're describing is the Hammersley sofa (1968), which has A=2.2074.

For a long time, it was thought this might be the optimal shape, but it was never proven. And it couldn't have been because it turns out that you can do better: the Gerver sofa (1992) is a more complicated shape, composed of 18 curve segments and has A=2.2195.

Nobody knew whether there might be an even better shape until now (assuming the proof holds up).

See: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moving_sofa_problem
by rendaw | 2026-01-06 05:02:25+00:00
I really don't get this

> if you are demonstrating performance at your boss's level, that's evidence/proof that a promotion is warranted

If you're an engineering IC, and your boss is a manager with 4 other ICs, your boss's goals are twofold: get at least 5 ICs worth of results from the team, and managing people.

So to do what you and TFA suggest literally you can either:

- Do 5 ICs worth of work

- Start managing people at the same level on your team, on your own initiative

I've seen coworkers try to manage their peers, aiming for a promotion. To say the least it harms team unity.

I only managed to do the 2nd once when I was thrown into a project with an absentee manager and doubly-booked half-committed members who were actually happy for someone to organize the work. Those sorts of situations are rare. Or maybe that's the unstated qualification.

And: Do 5x the amount of work, well...

Maybe I'm not thinking outside the box enough here, but I need some examples of how this is generally achievable. Maybe this was specifically _not_ about the IC-manager divide, and more like managers and manager-managers?

What I'd more generally expect is for a manager to explicitly put you in charge of a small, short term project with one or two other people and see how it goes: can everyone contribute, did you achieve results, were you transparent, how did you interact with the other members, etc.
by mothballed | 2026-01-06 05:02:33+00:00
Absolutely possible but if you were the presidents son I do think you'd be more likely to slowly buy in over 1+ weeks. If you were media related you'd want to do a giant bet before anybody else as you know lots of other people know and it's only a matter of time when someone else exploits it, and you only know slightly ahead of time.

When you have insider information it's typically most profitable or at the very least less risky to exploit it at the earliest moment, but if you know you have a long head start you can do it slowly to keep from bidding up the price. In either case a giant bet only hour before tells me it's someone who only found out about the operation shortly before it happened.

------- re: below due to throttling ----------

(1) Is an excellent point but they bought "will happen in the month of January" for something that occurred at the beginning of January, so basically the worst case scenario for exploiting bet expiry.

(2) Makes sense on face but I had read elsewhere there was a 2 week window. So at no point would it go outside the January window of the bet, there was no point in waiting once January 1st hit.

In this case a rational insider with a priori knowledge far ahead of time would have either placed a large bet first thing January 1st or started to ease in first thing on January 1st, as waiting would convey ~no advantage and only present risk other insiders would bite the apple first.
by stackghost | 2026-01-06 05:02:45+00:00
Strategic bombers are just as important because MAD itself is fundamentally a political and diplomatic tool. The reason you have strategic bombers is, as you correctly said, so that you can signal your posture and intent by stationing them, dispersing them, launching them, and (most critically) recalling them.

But again, because MAD first and foremost is a deterrent, you want to provide diplomatic offramps for both you and your adversary. This is crucial. Putting the B-52s on airborne alert sends a very strong message, but so does recalling them from airborne alert.

By their very natures, SSBNs and ICBMs are not capable of playing this role.
by elbci | 2026-01-06 05:03:10+00:00
"incorruptible Administration: Replacing traditional bureaucracy with validated, objective AI-governance layers."
aaa... validated by... who?

"Economic Load Balancing: A $10M hard cap on individual assets..."
yes!

"Output-Based Law: Laws based on archaic dogmas are deprecated. Policy is measured strictly by output: Does it increase health, intelligence, or cooperation?"
aaa... what is the standard unit of measure for health, cooperation?

"Cognitive Integrity: Protecting the human dopamine system..."
cool, free drugs ;))

"Smart Security: A human-centric but tough approach to real threats, removing the need for private armies and focusing on systemic stability."
sure, also universal peace and happiness would be nice

Ah, by the way, I assume this structural global transformation will take place via... maybe ppl all over the world could just hold hands and think happy thoughts or something...

PS I'm not only trolling here, I want to point out how ppl are getting desperate, I really feel we are approaching a breaking point and the general level of political/sociological/systems education is... as above
by enjeyw | 2026-01-06 05:03:27+00:00
Well markets are evaluated on a number of different metrics depending on what you’re trying to determine.

If you want to go be pedantic about it and select one metric, markets are evaluated on their Brier Score or some other Proper Scoring Rule, not accuracy.

However, I prefer calibration as a high level way to explain prediction market performance to people, as it’s more intuitive.
by apparent | 2026-01-06 05:03:29+00:00
Apple is forced to offer longer warranties in some non-US countries. In these countries, the price of the product is simply higher, to account for this. So basically consumers are forced to pay for an extended warranty in those countries, whereas if they bought them in the US (as some do on vacation), they get them cheaper but without the extended warranty.

I would agree that a product that supposedly has a 30 day battery life (PT2) should have a warranty that lasts longer than 30 days. This is especially true if the software optimizations haven't been completed at the time the watches ship. Otherwise it's just impossible to reliably assess whether the product is actually defective during the return window.
by asa400 | 2026-01-06 05:04:13+00:00
> the unexpected overperformance of GDP isn’t directly attributed AI but it is very much in the “how did that happen?” conversation.

We spent an amount of money on data centers that was so large that it managed to overcome a self-imposed kick in the nuts from tariffs and then some. The amount of money involved rivals the creation of the railroad system in the United States. Of course GDP overperformed in that scenario.

Where did AI tool use show up in the productivity numbers?
Built an AI-powered profit calculator and inventory tracker app for resellers
by UnderpricedApp | 2026-01-06 05:04:57+00:00
I'm a developer who got into flipping/reselling as a side hustle last year. My biggest frustration was standing in thrift stores trying to figure out if something was worth buying while juggling eBay sold listings, Google searches, and fee calculators.

So I built Underpriced.app - an AI reseller app that tells you if something is worth flipping before you buy it.

The Problem

Researching items takes ~5 minutes per item
You waste time and miss deals while researching (someone else grabs it)
You buy blindly and hope for the best
Spreadsheet tracking is tedious

The Solution

Take a photo or screenshot → AI identifies the item → Get instant analysis:
Profit potential after all fees
ROI percentage
Demand level & time to sell
Best platforms to sell on
Red flags to watch for
Deal score (0-100)

Tech Stack

Frontend: Next.js, React, TailwindCSS
Backend: Node.js, PostgreSQL
Chrome Extension for browser integration

Features I'm Proud Of

Works for both online sourcing (screenshots) and in-person (photos)
Built-in flip tracker with analytics & reports
Chrome extension for one-click online deals analysis
Premium AI tools: flipping strategy, listing generators, deep market research
15-30 second analysis time

Current Status

Launched 2 months ago
10 free analyses to start
Paid tiers from $2.99/mo
Active users in flipping community

What I'm Working On
More accurate valuations for niche items
Multi-item batch analysis
Mobile app (currently PWA)
Integration with inventory management tools

Lessons Learned
AI vision models are incredible but need heavy prompt engineering
Promoting SaaS is way harder than building it
The reselling community is way bigger than I expected
Balance between speed and accuracy is crucial

Try it: underpriced.app

Would love feedback from fellow builders:

How would you improve the AI prompts for better accuracy?
What's a fair price for this kind of analysis tool?
Should I focus on depth (better analysis) or breadth (more features)?
Happy to answer any technical questions about the build!
by stackghost | 2026-01-06 05:05:04+00:00
I don't agree regarding a quad vs a triad.

At risk of sounding like gpt, the triad is not silo/boomer/bomber, it's land-based/airborne/seaborne.

Whether or not the survivability of your land-based ICBMs are due to mobility or hardened bunkers doesn't change much at the strategic level.
by LarsDu88 | 2026-01-06 05:06:04+00:00
Its modern terminology but doesn't it apply here? Im more familiar with SNES than CPS hardware, but in this case, when you assign those three entries in sprite table memory, each tick represents one PPU lookup and blit to VRAM, right?

And it also looks like each of those tiles is drawn at unaligned coordinates.

So this really can be regarded as a draw call of sorts
by SpicyLemonZest | 2026-01-06 05:06:12+00:00
Not in the way you may be expecting. Only Americans in what we call "swing states" get meaningful votes in presidential elections - because of how our system works, once you know that one candidate or the other is going to win your state, how much they win by doesn't matter. I still vote as a civic obligation, but I don't have any friends or family members in swing states, so neither my voting nor my advocacy has any effect whatsoever on who becomes President of the USA.

The election schedule is also infrequent with no provision at all for early elections. Most Americans haven't voted since November 2024, won't get to vote again until November of this year, and the next opportunity to vote for president isn't until November 2028.
by giarc | 2026-01-06 05:08:10+00:00
"that a prediction market effectively liberates the directional content of that information by converting it into prices."

I can see this, and I guess maybe my issue is with the phrasing of "aggregating" insider information. Because you aren't just aggregating insider info, you are also aggregating non-insider information, but no one (but the insider) knows what is right.

Is there different types of prediction markets then? One where there is a true insider and one without? For example, you could take bets on weather it will rain on Saturday. People can make educated guesses, but no one really knows (no insider). On the flip side, Kanye could create a bet on whether he will run for president. He would be the only insider, so again, aggregating insider and non insider information.
by NickLangat | 2026-01-06 05:08:29+00:00
Location: Nairobi, Kenya Remote: Yes
Willing to relocate: Yes

Technologies: Python, Django, Pandas, Numpy, Scikit-learn, TypeScript, Next Js,Tailwind CSS, PostgreSQL, AWS, DigitalOcean, Docker

Résumé/CV: https://nicklangat.com

Email: nicksonlangat95@gmail.com

About:

I built Fiscal AI, a financial expense analysis, transaction classification, expenditure forecast/prediction and ai assistant tool powered by machine learning models and LLMs. You can see a short demo here https://supercut.ai/share/nickson-langat/lKLxTSQsdv79scuWAy2...

I also built Codetail, a platform that helps developers improve their coding skills by providing personalized solutions and practice problems. It showcases my ability to design and implement complex features such as user authentication, problem-solving interfaces, and AI-driven recommendations. You can explore the project https://codetail.nicklangat.com

I also built Invoisce, a modern invoicing platform that simplifies billing for businesses and freelancers. The platform offers features like automated invoice scheduling, bulk invoice generation, and email integration for direct client communication. Users can choose from customizable invoice templates, attach supporting documents, and generate secure shareable links for easy client access. Invoisce is designed to streamline the invoicing process, reducing manual work and improving efficiency for businesses of all sizes. You can explore the project https://invoisce.nicklangat.com

I thrive on building impactful, user-centric applications and am always eager to take on new challenges. If you're looking for an engineer who can deliver high-quality solutions, let’s connect. I'd love to discuss how I can contribute to your team.
by Sephr | 2026-01-06 05:08:40+00:00
You are libeling me. That is not what I posted. My original post, accessible via the GitHub comment version history is

"@addyosmani No problem; just remember that modifying someone else's code does not grant you any copyright to that code. I don't agree with your opinion that inserting existing code into a template (the API) for a framework (Modernizr) warrants a notice of credit, even with a few changes to the code being inserted."
by kopirgan | 2026-01-06 05:09:08+00:00
I am not much of a programmer only fool around a bit for fun and occasional profit. I find Helix to be very good for coding. Compared to Neovim, I could get LSPs going for go, c without any effort. Only thing is I haven't figured out much of debugging which I guess is must have for a serious coder. My favorite is printf and is enough for me across go, awk, c , Excel VBA macros and JS!
by RcouF1uZ4gsC | 2026-01-06 05:10:23+00:00
You would probably have the same answer if your boss said, I have to get rid of one of your co-workers or your use of editing tools - ie all editors. You either get rid of your co-worker or go back to using punch cards.

You would probably get rid of your co-worker and keep Vim/Emacs/VsCode/Zed/JetBrains or whatever editor you use.

All your example tells us is that AI tools are valuable tools.
by bawolff | 2026-01-06 05:10:34+00:00
> And they bombed Chavez's tomb, which is quite a dick move of there wasn't any AA there

Is that confirmed? because i think that would be a textbook example of a war crime.

I think people are suspicious because Maduro allegedly didnt seem to make it to a bunker in time, which if things are being bombed and helicopters are showing up on radar, one would think he would have sufficient time to get to some secure room, which in turn would delay things enough for reenforcements to arrive.

I think some of the suspicion is that we are talking about helicopters not fighter jets, which seem like they would be easy to take out even with how degraded their military is. But idk
by tptacek | 2026-01-06 05:12:45+00:00
I would argue that a "market" in whether it will rain on Saturday isn't really a prediction market, or even a market, at all. It's just a bookmaking operation. The core function of any market, in anything, is price discovery.

What's the difference between a "Monday it will rain" market and a NCAAF prop bet on a team's rushing yards? I could argue that DraftKings prop bets are actually more like prediction markets than these "will it rain" bets. People actually do have directional information to contribute to sports propositions!

(I think online sports betting is evil.)
by kamaal | 2026-01-06 05:13:56+00:00
>>Which is why much better advice is to try to get promoted by switching companies and jumping a level in the process.

This is why most companies don't offer a promotion as a part of hiring process, and are mostly hiring at currently levels, but at a pay raise.

In some cases where a promotion is available, they often pay below your current compensation, which defeats the whole point of the process.