MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by derangedHorse | 2026-01-21 02:20:05+00:00
> Isn't this the real chart to look at for that?

No, the perplexity chart is actually a really bad one to look at. It tracks a derivative of gold from 1975 onwards from which the S&P already accrued over 350% in returns. They also started the gold derivative off at a price of $178 while using the initial price of $17.57 to calculate S&P returns.

> Personally I am about $10M USD poorer for listening to people on the internet. I wish people would not spread falsities about finance that can actually ruin lives.

Ideally no one would blindly follow advice they don't understand or can't accept into their own mental model.
by vacuity | 2026-01-21 02:20:06+00:00
I'm not qualified to give a complete answer, but I think two main issues are the proliferation of flags in standard tools (e.g. ls has a lot of flags for sorting behavior) and the extreme preference for plain text. Text is very useful, but a lot of semantic information gets discarded. Representing structured data is painful, stdin/stdout/stderr are all in one place, window resizing makes a mess sometimes (even "write at end of line" isn't given), and so on. I'm definitely not qualified to describe just how to fix these issues, though.
by tonymet | 2026-01-21 02:20:08+00:00
Your list and the one above (e.g. with General Marshall, etc) are more illustrative & aligned with developing US Hegemony than the 20th Century Presidents. It seems to me the US presidents have been drawing down hegemony assets since JFK.

It's just that the USA was so dominant after WW2 that it took about a century for the structure to collapse.

A better model than seeing Trump as a wrecking ball, is seeing him as a high stakes gambler, with middling skills -- in the same way that George W Bush made a big bet on the middle east and lost the chips.
by danielmarkbruce | 2026-01-21 02:20:51+00:00
>> emotional response (which motivated the behavior) is valid and natural.

This is obviously nonsense. If an old woman falls over and breaks her knee, and one's emotional response is happiness - they have real problems - it's not natural or valid to feel that. If the idea of choking women to death makes one feel excited - no it's not natural or valid to feel that emotion, they have serious problems. One could go on.

Maybe you haven't met any really bad people in life - when you do you will often find they have very strange emotional responses to things.
by tptacek | 2026-01-21 02:22:04+00:00
The distinction you're trying to draw here, between exclusively using NAT to provide security, versus it being one component of a stack of network controls that could just as easily be replaced with others, isn't meaningful.

The point is that NAT was introduced as a kind of firewall. The PIX firewall was named by Network Translation, Inc., which was acquired as a security device --- and, indeed, the PIX was for many years the flagship security brand at Cisco.

I don't dispute that NAT is dispensable (though: dispensing with it in millions of residential prem deployments is another story altogether!), only that it's "not a security tool" --- it clearly is one, and a meaningful one (whether network snoots like it or not) in a huge number of networks.
by Nevermark | 2026-01-21 02:22:08+00:00
Generally speaking, the clan you worked to survive with generally didn't cancel you because a seashell currency accountant saw some tangential benefit for a moment. Which might just be their own survival need to look busy or be a perforative hard ass, to avoid the same thing.

The loyalty you are dismissing as unnatural, was painstakingly discovered by our genes, precisely because it maximized survival in our natural environment.
by jayelem | 2026-01-21 02:22:45+00:00
OpenAI demanded I prove my age in November 2025. I’m an educated 50 year old and had been paying for the service for over a year.
When they insisted I prove my age I went through two layers of support but got nowhere. They insisted I go through their verification process.
I refused and cancelled my subscription.
This may be a losing battle but I’m not going to upload a photo to these services.
by user3939382 | 2026-01-21 02:23:41+00:00
This is a market can stay irrational problem. Modern compute infrastructure from phones, 5G, data centers, LLMs have their energy economics exactly backwards which combined with plastic waste is causing a massive global economic distortion that will correct itself bc physics doesn’t care about the white house, Vanguard, TSMC or anyone else. How long we can borrow from the future and put stress on the poor to prop up this insanely wasteful system who can say.
by tsunamifury | 2026-01-21 02:25:10+00:00
I was referring to Europe and america together -- and I think your conjecture is real -- what if we move to a projection of holographic economy over the real one. The answer is, whichever gets the most people to cooperate and support that holographic system will survive. In general collective weak systems tend to not work well there. But hyper centralized systems tend to over index on projection. Which is why we have the separation.
by julianeon | 2026-01-21 02:25:22+00:00
As far as I can tell, there are exactly 3 use cases that have demonstrably worked with AI, in the sense that their stakeholders (not the AI companies, the users) swear it works.

1. training a RAG on support questions for chat or documentation, w/good material

2. people doing GTM work in marketing, for things like email automation

3. people using a combination of expensive tools - Claude + Cursor + something else (maybe n8n, maybe a custom coding service) - to make greenfield apps
How long do you think? I give it 3 years
by hmokiguess | 2026-01-21 02:25:31+00:00
Who’s ready here? I feel like in 3 years time we are being forced out into retirement.

I already replaced the junior devs I work with entirely, soon I’ll be replaced.

A few years back actually, before AI as we know it, there were lots of quants in finance making millions who now are algo bots that cost in the hundreds of thousands but still lot less than millions in commission (plus no sick day, etc, etc).

You get the point, I’m not asking “if” I’m asking “when”. What’s your take on the question? I give it 3 years.
by stevage | 2026-01-21 02:25:48+00:00
I played a game all the way through, against the three different AIs on offer.

It was weird. I didn't engage in any discussion with the bots (other than trying to get them to explain the rules at the start). I won without having any chips eliminated. One was briefly taken prisoner then given back for some reason.

So...they don't seem to be very good.
by 8bitsrule | 2026-01-21 02:26:29+00:00
Using Mint, I've found the tools 'Timeshift' (for the OS) and 'Backup Tool' (for the Home folder) to be handy & assuring from the dangers of tinkering and/or an upgrade. Both allow saving their outputs to outside 'safes'.

Another benefit of Mint is a well-attended user forum (with swell tech support). That can important if your technical problem is rarer... with audio, say. (NOT a Linux strong-point.)

Unless your uses are bog-standard, I'd look for similar features to rely on in any distro.

Booting from Grub can be 'interesting' at times, if there's a weak point.
by adrianwaj | 2026-01-21 02:27:08+00:00
I think they really should charge with micropayments, and they could even roll out their own currency for that if need be. Ads suck.

Actually, all the AI companies together should choose a micropayment system to focus on. I know in fashion, I've seen what would seem like competing brands center around a common "pillar of influence."

Also, if (long-tail?) AI companies work together, they could install appliances and terminals around cities. The most immediate use case - transport timetables. It seems like a no-brainer the more I think about it. Especially good for tourists who don't speak the local language. Governments may end up wanting to do that anyway and could subsidize the cost. It really depends on how fixated people are to owning their own screen, versus using someone else's. Those city screens could end up billboards anyway - especially for local businesses. They could print for a fee too and third parties could pay to get their app listed. Also, it's worth considering the increase in wealth inequality and rising hardware costs for people to own and stream into their own device. So this could be like the Internet Cafe 2.0.

Incidentally, there's a recent thread about someone streaming HN to a cheap display: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46699782 - why not have such displays around town? I guess one major problem is vandalism.
by xwolfi | 2026-01-21 02:28:05+00:00
Way worse. I live in China but I'm French and I was saying to my gf yday night, to my own surprise: "China has never humiliated, insulted or threatened in such a gross, childish, pointless way. We might be better off supporting a Taiwan reintegration and abandon Ukraine to Russia for an Eurasian alliance, than let the US talk to us like that - even frigging Putin never crossed the line to mockery as often as Trump and his goons".

Maybe I overreact, but what a change of opinion from my grandad who saw the US land in Normandy... This credit we gave them is running out and I'd rather have a cold calculating dictator that tells me the population is too stupid to vote (common feeling in China) than an unstable mercurial dictator whining he didn't get a pretty prize.

And if Trump wants to talk about boats 500 years ago, how long does he think we've been in friendly contact with Russia and China ?
by gnabgib | 2026-01-21 02:29:04+00:00
First hits on DDG, anonymous Google, Bing

ERD/ Entity Relationship Diagram https://www.lucidchart.com/pages/er-diagrams

ERM / Entity-Relationship Model https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Entity%E2%80%93relationship_mo...

(same-same, ERD is the more common acronym)
by zamadatix | 2026-01-21 02:29:35+00:00
> The distinction you're trying to draw here, between exclusively using NAT to provide security, versus it being one component of a stack of network controls that could just as easily be replaced with others, isn't meaningful.

That's not the distinction I, or TFA, set out to make.

It's not that NAT is a component of controls that could be replaced by others, it's that whether NAT was put in place for security or if it was always assumed you need an actual stateful firewall precisely because NAT was never intended or believed to provide meaningful security, even in the days of classful networking.

Not one of the references above makes claim that NAT was intended to provide security on its own. That the PIX launched with actual firewalling capabilities does not bolster that NAT=security, it actually bolsters that NAT was never believed or intended to provide security even further.

To turn this back around at you: The distinction you're drawing that NAT could have provided "something better than nothing" in terms of security if appliances like the PIX hadn't always shipped firewalling from day 1 isn't meaningful.
by stackghost | 2026-01-21 02:30:14+00:00
That seems overly reductive.

He won because:

- the NDP and the CPC were both led by deeply unpopular leaders: Jagmeet Singh the silk clad, Rolex-wearing self styled "man of the people" and Pierre Poilievre who is so dislikeable he routinely polls double digits below his party

- Trump threatening to collapse the Canadian economy and/or annex us by force

- Flat economic growth

- Carney's credentials on the economy being unparalleled in Canadian politics (see previous point)

- Voters tired of the far-left big government nanny state philosophy that was the hallmark of the Trudeau governments and Carney successfully presented himself as a centrist

Interestingly, Carney was appointed to the Bank of Canada by a Conservative PM and I'd argue he's got a similar appeal that Trump initially had, but for different reasons: Trump positioned himself as an outsider, and Carney is similarly not a career politician. By contrast his only real challenger (Poilievre) hasn't had a real job in his life and has been living on the taxpayer's dime his entire career.

I think voters in both the US and Canada are sick of slimy politicians.
by dangero | 2026-01-21 02:30:20+00:00
It’s important to note that rainfall in CA is not 100% natural. The state actively funds cloud seeding.

https://www.grants.ca.gov/grants/gfo-23-311-advancing-precip...

Example of a recent $2.5M grant.

This information is often buried in budgets under applied research grants. I suspect they obscure this information because it could create liabilities, for example, if gov funded rain seeding creates flooding and human death are they partially responsible for this?
by CodingJeebus | 2026-01-21 02:30:20+00:00
> First, it means naming reality. Stop invoking rules-based international order as though it still functions as advertised. Call it what it is: a system of intensifying great power rivalry where the most powerful pursue their interests using economic integration as coercion.

Nobody leading a western country would’ve dared be this direct about America a decade ago.

The great irony with the current political climate is that America has truly been first for many decades, leading the world order to tremendous financial, military and material success. But nothing lasts forever.

We won’t know for many years if this moment represents America’s true descent into a has-been empire, but the message from our closest allies is very clear: world leaders don’t speak that kind of truth to a power like America unless they mean it.
by alephnerd | 2026-01-21 02:30:23+00:00
EU-China trade only represents around 13% of total trade between China and partners, and is easily substitutable by China by a mix of ASEAN (most of whom have an FTA or GATT FTA with the EU), Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Australia, Russia (RU-China trade has a higher dollar value than DE-CN trade), or India.

As long as (eg.) France continues to support Dassault, Safran, and Thales - all of whom continue to support Indian [0][1] and Vietnamese [2][3] military modernization against Chinese aggression, CN-EU ties will never recover [4].

And that's just the tip of the iceberg depending on EU member state. Germany [5][6], Netherlands [6][7], and other individual EU states have similarly crossed Chinese redlines over the past year.

[0] - https://www.capital.fr/entreprises-marches/rafale-dassault-a...

[1] - https://www.lesechos.fr/industrie-services/air-defense/bombe...

[2] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/europe-russie/2023/06/27/a...

[3] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/asie-pacifique/2025/12/15/...

[4] - http://www.iis.whu.edu.cn/index.php?id=2986

[5] - https://taz.de/U-Boot-Deal-geplant/!6144706/

[6] - https://www.welt.de/wirtschaft/article247750774/Ruestung-Tai...

[7] - https://www.nu.nl/economie/6372336/china-is-boos-op-nederlan...
by mierz00 | 2026-01-21 02:30:30+00:00
How do you introduce any tool/change to a team of people?

You get buy in, start having conversations see what AI people have explored. Have they tried claude? Do they prefer other tools? If so why? What are the objections. Actually listen.
I’d also showcase what you can do. I love to present what codex has found when debugging something, or a prototype I’ve put together.

If you have the budget pay for subscriptions so they can play around.

Also, you say that development velocity is a big problem, but I would dive into why that is. You may be disappointed when velocity remains the same with AI tools.
by celsoazevedo | 2026-01-21 02:30:52+00:00
It does the job, but it's important to remember that there isn't a "stock Android launcher". Google, Samsung, OnePlus, Motorola, Xiaomi, etc, develop their own launcher and have different features.

I used Nova mainly because I use 2 phones and it is easier to keep things similar. For example, the app list on my Samsung scrolls horizontally. On my other phone running LineageOS, it's vertically. With Nova, it's the same on both devices.

It was also useful when moving phones, as I could just restore a backup to restore my layout.
by rvz | 2026-01-21 02:32:27+00:00
Thats the problem. Some developers want to avoid learning another programming language and use one for everything (including their technologies.)

Using TS, React here doesn’t make sense for stability in the long term. As you can see, even when they replaced Ink and built their own, the problem still exists.

There are other alternatives that are better than whatever Anthropic did such as Bubbletea (Go) or Ratatui (Rust) which both are better suited for this.

Maybe they were thinking more about job security with TypeScript over technical correctness and a robust implementation architecture and this shows the lack of it.
by ddxv | 2026-01-21 02:32:31+00:00
Where do you see the pro china side getting more and more support? As far as I can tell it's sharply swung towards maintaining independence in the past decade or two with single digit support of unification with the mainland.

https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963

https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/upload/44/doc/6963/Tondu202512.png
by bigbadfeline | 2026-01-21 02:35:49+00:00
>> “There will be more than enough jobs for the citizens of your nation, especially those with vocational training,”

I was with him until "vocational training", he's obviously implying that the bots will be bosses and the humans - Indians. That message is being thrown around way too often to exclude the possibility of a planned development.

> Previous waves of automation sure didn’t stop the demand for immigrant labor - if anything, it’s only increased.

Past performance does not guarantee future results, I'd much rather analyze a situation for what it is than rely on rough and unproven analogies.

I'm not sure what "waves of automation" you have in mind but for example, automation in the auto industry did lead to a drastic reduction of workforce per car produced, just look at the former auto factories in Detroit. So the Palantir guy is kind of right here.

The real issue is who will control the AI, because in addition to being a workforce reducer it can serve as a rather petty oppressor. The reduction of immigration is the least of your worries here.
by Nevermark | 2026-01-21 02:36:02+00:00
The far right and left are always going to be homes for extremists, by definition.

And also practicality. Extreme people are highly motivated to push their agenda, and that requires a party. They adapt and find a way to participate, one way or another. Often simply by ramping up awareness of the opponent party's inevitable extremes.

The real question is: how do the moderates in a party operate, and are they currently tolerated and reasonably well represented within the party.

(I am using extreme here to mean a lack of operating in objective reality, or a strong will to divide who "matters" from who doesn't. Usually they go together.)
by rsyring | 2026-01-21 02:36:46+00:00
Track Mitsuhiko's work and blog posts:

https://news.ycombinator.com/user?id=the_mitsuhiko

https://lucumr.pocoo.org/about/

He has an extensive and impressive body of work in Python and Rust pre LLMs. He's now working on his own startup and doing much of it with AI and documenting his journey. I trust his opinions even though I don't use LLMs as much as he does.
by ammmir | 2026-01-21 02:38:04+00:00
When you have a hammer, everything looks like a nail. Ad nauseam.

AI has made it possible for me to build several one-off personal tools in the matter of a couple of hours and has improved my non-tech life as a result. Before, I wouldn't even have considered such small projects because of the effort needed. It's been relieving not to have to even look at code, assuming you can describe your needs in a good prompt. On the other hand, I've seen vibe coded codebases with excessive layers of abstraction and performance issues that came from a possibly lax engineering culture of not doing enough design work upfront before jumping into implementation. It's a classic mistake, that is amplified by AI.

Yes, average code itself has become cheap, but good code still costs, and amazing code, well, you might still have an edge there for now, but eventually, accept that you will have to move up the abstraction stack to remain valuable when pitted against an AI.

What does this mean? Focus on core software engineering principles, design patterns, and understanding what computer is doing at a low level. Just because you're writing TypeScript doesn't mean you shouldn't know what's happening at the CPU level.

I predict the rise in AI slop cleanup consultancies, but they'll be competing with smarter AIs who will clean up after themselves.
by davesque | 2026-01-21 02:38:42+00:00
Can people quit with this stupid argument? A thin majority of Americans voted for this during the election. If you follow the polls, the vast majority of American currently don't want this. Just stop with this "dumb Americans" dur dur nonsense. Those of us who have our heads screwed on straight are so sick of being blamed for this. The same thing could happen at any time in any country.
by alexpham14 | 2026-01-21 02:39:15+00:00
Haha, I hit something similar after 12 years, just didn’t care anymore, and the idea of another sprint planning meeting made me nauseous. Jumped into product for a while thinking proximity to decision-making would help. It didn’t. Just more meetings, more politics.

What helped wasn’t the role shift, but dialing the intensity way down. Took a year doing part-time contract work, no Jira tickets. I know a few folks who leaned into teaching, some into small business stuff—bike repair, roasting coffee, etc. None of them are making FAANG money, but they seem… less fried.

If you’ve got savings and no urgent obligations, might be worth treating this as a decompression window instead of a pivot. Let your brain deflate a bit before deciding what’s next.
by cududa | 2026-01-21 02:40:10+00:00
Fantasy price for your personal usage or the personal usage of most average consumers/ software engineers, sure. It bears repeating: you're not the target audience.

They've been in the display game a long time. For people that need the product capabilities for their specific job, like color grading, they seem to price them quite well, given everywhere I used to see $30,000-$50,000 reference monitors, I see Studio Displays now.
by gsf_emergency_6 | 2026-01-21 02:40:12+00:00
My nonenby reinterpretation of Fukuyama's (as a representative of right-swingers)

https://youtube.com/watch?v=JloHHqV5tWQ&lc=Ugxbt5tyiSVxFGK_x...

is in the frame of "optionality". What does the 10% enby in you say about that. Does transgender surgery increase or reduce optionality? Or wrong question? (Hormone therapy is perfectly fine to me, but nebivolol is even better ;)

There is also an enby take in there ("EnergyKnife") for reference.

As for trust.. yeah a lot/most of the time it is fruitless to try and build trust? A pessimistic take, but maybe optimism reduces agency?

The only relevance here to BuddyCasino is that he looks like a trader. that has appeal of "optionality" to young males ime. Cuts through the optimism vs pessimism predicament in some situations, kicks the metric can down the road in others.

His links don't get me angry but into a state of cognitive dissonance that I kind of enjoy, like some metal fans do. Haven't figured out his way of thinking yet but he does seem to be on schizotypal spectrum :)
by alwillis | 2026-01-21 02:40:40+00:00
> The people of the USA really remind me of the people of Russia: totally depoliticized. I think in the USA many people are really focused on a pointless culture war yet aren't politically active at all.

If anything, the opposite is true. Citizens who've never protested in their lives are now in the streets. Off-year elections have had record turnouts.

154–155 million people voted in the 2024 presidential election; that's 63-65% of eligible voters, the second highest percentage in the past 100 years.

Most Americans took democracy for granted; the possibility of losing it has caused Americans to wake up.