by submeta | 2026-01-12 19:34:31+00:00
Western policy toward Iran basically boils down to: we're fine with democracy, just not if it threatens US/Israeli regional dominance. The 1953 coup, freezing out Hamas after they won elections, bankrolling the Saudis and Mubarak, it's all pretty consistent. "Democracy promotion" is the talking point; the actual goal is a pliant regional order where Israel stays militarily dominant and Iran either gets weaker or flips to being Western-aligned.

So when you see Reza Pahlavi suddenly getting airtime in Western policy circles, or street protests getting instrumentalized, or the recent conflict framed as a chance to degrade Iranian capabilities—it's not hard to read that as regime-change-by-attrition rather than genuine concern for what Iranians actually want.

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And since you are too lazy to google yourself, here's some food for thought for you:

1953 COUP & PATTERN OF UNDERCUTTING INCONVENIENT DEMOCRACIES

The coup itself:
- Detailed reconstructions document CIA/MI6 overthrow of elected Mossadegh to restore a pro-Western Shah and protect Western oil interests.[1][2][3][4]
- CIA officially acknowledged its role; mainstream sources frame it as toppling Iran's elected government, followed by decades of US-backed dictatorship.[5][6]

The pattern:
- Once you map 1953 → Hamas 2006 → ongoing Saudi/Egyptian support, scholars synthesize it into the exact logic described: democracy is fine until it threatens US/Israeli primacy.[2][10][11][13]

HAMAS' 2006 ELECTORAL VICTORY & WESTERN RESPONSE

- Hamas won a free, competitive election in 2006; the US and allies then moved to diplomatically and financially isolate the government unless it met stringent conditions.[7][8][9][10]
- Policy analysis shows US-led isolation pushed the Palestinian Authority toward collapse—fitting the claim that "democracy promotion" gets subordinated to Israeli interests once voters pick the "wrong" side.[9][10][7]

BANKROLLING AUTHORITARIAN PARTNERS (SAUDI ARABIA, MUBARAK'S EGYPT)

- US military and economic aid to Egypt under Mubarak continued for decades despite systematic repression; "democracy assistance" remained marginal compared to security aid.[11]
- Bipartisan US tolerance for Saudi Arabia and Gulf monarchies persists despite their undemocratic character—even after Khashoggi, even during Saudi counter-revolutionary moves against Arab Spring uprisings.[12][13]

THE STRUCTURAL LOGIC: "PLIANT REGIONAL ORDER" + ISRAELI MILITARY DOMINANCE

- Critical analyses argue Washington's overriding priority is stability of a pro-US security architecture and Israel's qualitative military edge; democracy and human rights are secondary, adjustable variables.[13][12]

REZA PAHLAVI, STREET PROTESTS & REGIME-CHANGE-BY-ATTRITION

- Reza Pahlavi is positioned as a pro-Western, pro-Israel opposition figure amplified in Western forums, despite uncertain domestic support.[14][15][16]
- US and allied Iran policy mixes sanctions, information ops, support for exiled media, and military pressure as a long-term weakening strategy—not engagement with any outcome that might produce an independent, nationalist democracy.[17][18][19]

SOURCES:

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d'%C3%A9tat
[2] https://www.zinnedproject.org/news/tdih/iran-coup/
[3] https://www.britannica.com/event/1953-coup-in-Iran
[4] https://monthlyreview.org/articles/a-defining-moment-the-his...
[5] https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/in-first-cia-acknowledges...
[6] https://www.npr.org/2019/01/31/690363402/how-the-cia-overthr...
[7] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Palestinian_legislative_e...
[8] https://chrissmith.house.gov/uploadedfiles/2006.03.02_united...
[9] https://carnegie.ru/2006/05/18/coping-with-hamas-event-885
[10] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/palestinians-fighting-a...
[11] https://www.mei.edu/publications/united-states-and-arab-pro-...
[12] https://carnegieendowment.org/posts/2011/06/the-united-state...
[13] https://www.rienner.com/uploads/5d24e20d30b4f.pdf
[14] https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2025/7/3/son-of-former-sh...
[15] https://tomorrowsaffairs.com/how-much-real-support-does-reza...
[16] https://www.cfr.org/event/conversation-reza-pahlavi
[17] https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2026/1/5/why-trumps-regim...
[18] https://www.hoover.org/research/regime-change-iran-treachero...
[19] https://responsiblestatecraft.org/2020/06/03/why-a-us-policy...