MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by leptons | 2026-01-19 18:24:05+00:00
Yeah, you're still just wrong.

In the 1990s Windows brought in $1.2 billion. In the 2010s, it brought in about $14 billion. In 2022 it was $24.8 billion, and in 2024, it was $29.1 billion.

So your assumption that Windows is somehow "not the cash cow it once was" is false. It's bringing in more money than it ever did before.

Windows definitely is still very much a "cash cow" for Microsoft. And they can have more than one "cash cow", they can have as many as they want and it wouldn't make Windows any less of a "cash cow".
by atoav | 2026-01-19 18:24:31+00:00
This is a wonderful example how people live in the inverse-world.

Marketing is in the end a way of trying to get people to listen, even if you have nothing substantial to say (or if you have something to say, potentially multiply the effect of that message). That means you have to invent a lot of packaging and fluff surrounding the thing you want to sell to change peoples impression independent of the actual substance they will encounter.

This to me is entirely backwards. If you want people to listen focus on your content, then make sure it is presented in a way that serves that content. And if we are talking about text, that is really, really small in terms of data and people will be happy if they can access it quickly and without 10 popups in their face.

Not that I accuse any person in this thread of towing that line, but the web as of today seems to be 99% of unneeded crap, with a tiny sprinkle of irrelevant content.
by funkyfiddler69 | 2026-01-19 18:25:22+00:00
> The last 10 percent involves tediously filling in the details through back-and-forth trial-and-error conversation with the agent

It so often sounds like "traditional coding" flows like an orchestra during an opera while vibe and 'agentic' coding flows like a bunch of big bands practicing.

Are they trying to tell the story that "it's the same" or that "it's just not the same"? Is the toolchain changing that much that there is no reason to learn the baseline anymore? So the next ten years of AI development should be left to those who already weild the basic tools? Just like the economy? Is the narrative meant to establish a singularity-driven relationship with young coders, computer scientists and those who use code to entertain, inform and sell via media? While simultaneously pushing the outliers to the edge of the sphere and lock them out via their lack of AI skills and experience with such tools from ever reaching a proper chunk of the mob?

On the one hand, it's a personal decision. Trends and narratives can be convincing. Defactors are rare nowadays while polarization and the status quo are the defacto standard. So on the other hand, it's a depersonalized decision reinforcing the hierarchies (hardware) that dictate which tools (hardware, the cloud) dominate the main stream either way.

> Or are we restricting ourselves to vibe coding only?
> why not at this point switch to the human being primary author

It's the only choice. You are either the primary author of the code or of the learning material. In the former case, the latter is implied and you can't teach if you don't know.

In essence, all this "AI hype" should really only motivate. But these perceptions of "the end of stuff as we know it" and "NOW it's definitely not in my/our hands anymore" that is everywhere weighs heavy. So that the only "residue outcome" really is: making money is the only thing that's left ..., again, reinforcing the hierarchies (hardware) that dictate which tools (hardware, the cloud) dominate the main stream either way--whether you break under the weight or not, whether you shrugg it off or become versed enough to just carry it along--while establishing a singularity-driven relationship of the system with it's constituents.

This is the way.
by renewiltord | 2026-01-19 18:25:34+00:00
These days I just write specific TUIs for my infra. Claude can do it with Ratatui in no time. You can make it specific to your preferences. Like I press j to go to jobs. And hit l for logs that are then auto refreshed or whatever. Who knows what other people want. I just make for me and it rules. You can then mix infra and application handling in the same TUI. Press c for the per-customer infra selector. Not useful to anyone but people here.

Trivial to build.
by lelanthran | 2026-01-19 18:25:41+00:00
>> single keystroke could move the cursor halfway across the file to exactly the right spot.

> sorry what is this? exaggeration?

It is indeed. I need two keystrokes to move from an arbitrary positions in an arbitrarily long file to the exact spot I need to be.

I use it all the time, in fact. Multiple times an hour. It's muscle memory now for me, while reading/navigating code, to automatically do `ma` or `mb` etc.

At some later point I realise "let me read the function definition again" and then I do `'a` or `'b`, etc.
Small Shopify store owners, how do you handle Shopify data to Google Sheets?
by pandas_seeker | 2026-01-19 18:25:42+00:00
Curious to know - Small to Medium Shopify store owners, how do you handle data export Shopify to Google Sheets. For example real time sync for orders etc. Or such a feature is not even needed in day to day work?
thanks in advance.
by Juvination | 2026-01-19 18:25:49+00:00
I've been working with the Ralphosophy? for iterative behavior in my workflow and it seems pretty promising for cutting out a few manual steps.

I still have a manual part which is breaking the design document down into multiple small gh issues after a review but I think that is fine for now.

Using codex exec, we start working on a github issue with a supplied design document, creating a PR on completion. Then we perform a review using a review skill madeup which is effectively just a "cite your sources" skill on the review along with Open Questions.

Then we iterate through open questions doing a minimum of 3 reviews (somewhat arbitrary but sometimes multiple reviews catch things). Then finally I have I have a step in for checking Sonarcloud, fixing them and pushing the changes. Realistically this step should be broken out into multiple iterations to avoid large context rot.

What I miss the most is output, seeing whats going on in either Codex or Claude in real time. I can output the last response but it just gets messy until I make something a bit more formal.
by pdpi | 2026-01-19 18:26:40+00:00
> It's shocking that Apple hasn't done this trick yet when everyone else started doing it years ago.

It's not that shocking — them not doing that is part of why I keep buying their products. I believed their leadership understood that.

Looking at the article, the kind interpretation is that this is the same wrong-headed shift towards uniformity at all costs we've seen elsewhere in their products. The less kind interpretation is that they're deliberately blurring the lines with ads. Either way, it erodes away some of the trust that has been their lifeblood for the better part of maybe two decades.
by Chris2048 | 2026-01-19 18:26:49+00:00
To expand on this; I don't think other forms of active moderation get this pass, you don't get to harbour copyrighted IP, CPP or other illegal material posted on a forum by just not moderating.

further, if intent would be a possible defence, I already mentioned that archiving everything looks better than only having links when there are paywalls, active or otherwise.

from a moral position, I don't think HN moves the needle wrt enabling bypassing - most if not all HN users are likely fully capable of using archiving sites themselves, if not automating the process themselves.
by jonbecker | 2026-01-19 18:26:53+00:00
i understand how probability works. the "93 cents" vs "43 cents" comparison is looking at realized historical data, not theoretical odds. if the markets were efficiently priced, you would get 100% back. the entire point of the paper is showing that, historically, they aren't efficiently priced (longshots return ~43%), and explaining who captures that inefficiency.
by christophilus | 2026-01-19 18:26:59+00:00
First of all, that conference is right down the road from me, and I never knew about it. So, thanks for sharing!

My first job was working at a credit union software company. I designed and built the front-end (windows applications, a telephone banking system, and a home-banking web thing) and middle-tier systems (VB.NET-based services). The real back-end, though, was an old COBOL system.

I remember helping the COBOL programmers debug some stuff, and it was just so wildly foreign. My degree is in theoretical comp sci, and I'd seen a lot of different languages, including Prolog, various lisps and schemes, SQL, ADA, C++, C, Pascal, various assembly variants, but COBOL was simply unique. I've often wondered what ideas COBOL got right that we could learn from and leverage today in a new language.

I do remember our COBOL mainframes were really fast compared to the SQL Server layers my middle-tier services used, but I also remember looking at it and thinking it would be a giant pain to write (the numbers at the front of every line seemed like tedium that I would probably often get wrong).
by RiverCrochet | 2026-01-19 18:27:16+00:00
It doesn't matter anymore. Regarding "connections with real people" or "connections with real friends" - the actual social part of social media has moved to group texts.

Aside from iMessage and whatever the equivalent is on Android, there is Discord, Telegram, WhatsApp, Signal and Facebook Messenger - and those are basically group text apps. And there are many more such apps. The "town square" idea is dead, you can't fit the whole world into a town and it was silly to ever consider that.

As long as the above exists it doesn't matter to what extent the others become engagement cesspools. What is commonly called "social media" now is the new daytime television. Television had its engagement driven algorithms as well - slower due to the tech of the time, but still there. The content was optimized nationally per timeslot rather than individually.
by catlifeonmars | 2026-01-19 18:27:18+00:00
Not disagreeing with you, but you’re papering over a lot of complexity.

Note that cellular radios are highly specialized and the filtering circuits are tuned to specific bands. It’s not exactly like having a software defined radio in your pocket.

Next, at the modem level, you’ll need to implement and then sideload custom firmware. Finally, you’ll need to expose the right APDUs to the kernel to manage the whole thing.

TBH it sounds like a fun side project, but my point is you need to repurpose a lot of different parts of the stack to accomplish what you want.
by rudedogg | 2026-01-19 18:27:19+00:00
Yes, this is part of what is supposed to justify the premium prices, is that they can have a different business model.

But it seems Tim Cook can’t leave anything on the table. I’m really going to be irritated if we end up with a premium Siri. It’s going to undermine the privacy aspect, the hardware innovation, and everything else they have going for themselves despite missing the boat on AI
by aeonik | 2026-01-19 18:27:27+00:00
Reminder that in most US states it's perfectly legal to manufacture firearms at home for personal use as long as you're not a prohibited person, or making a controlled item like a machine gun.

You don't even need to register it.

Though you can't manufacture it with intent to sell.

Also, check your state laws first, some states have different laws.

I'm not a lawyer, and this is not legal advice.
by rsynnott | 2026-01-19 18:27:27+00:00
> What were you thinking? What was going through your heads? I'm genuinely curious.

See Brexit. As Michael Gove said, the people have had enough of experts; for a certain sort of person, not understanding things is a badge of pride, and they're more liable to trust people like Trump, who transparently do _not_ understand things, than _experts_.
by iguessthislldo | 2026-01-19 18:27:33+00:00
Most of it is commented very well. Also I like it because it has a little bit of personal character.

> " Incrementally match the search. I orignally hated this
> " but someone forced me to live with it for a while and told
> " me that I would grow to love it after getting used to it...
> " turns out he was right :)
> set incsearch
by hugeBirb | 2026-01-19 18:27:35+00:00
Having spent my entire life around cows I can say there's a great deal of evidence that cows are quite intelligent. Most of the time when people say they're dumb it's because they're hindering a human from forcing them to do something. Why should a cow "know" to go one way or the other or to not stop in a chute, or to not back up...these are just human constraints. We know what we WANT the cow to do and if they don't do that they're dumb. Sure I've seen cows do dumb things. If I was an outside observer looking at the severity and frequency that humans do dumb things I would come to the same conclusion, they're dumb.
by tptacek | 2026-01-19 18:27:56+00:00
This gets into a philosophical point about what a prediction market actually is. If it's a device for anonymously aggregating fragmented group information into a coherent accurate prediction, the lopsided bets are a feature; the only point of the market is the price signal, and the lopsided bets true up the price.

But most of us understand that prediction markets aren't that, no matter what Robin Hansen said when he was helping invent the modern incarnation of things like Polymarket and Kalshi. They're gambling venues, and we have "Nevada Gaming Commission"-style concerns about fairness. To me, the next logical step is to say that they should be heavily regulated, but in the era of DraftKings, that seems off the table.
by LeifCarrotson | 2026-01-19 18:28:12+00:00
I have occasionally tried checking Polymarket and Kalshi to get an idea of the general political/cultural/technological consensus on various issues that are difficult to research otherwise, eg. "what are the chances that the Senate changes hands in the 2026 midterms?" People have thought about it enough to wager a million dollars and the consensus is at about 1/3. I have this abstract prediction market in my head, each bet placed by some statistically average person with diverse experiences and exposures from my own bubble, who carefully considers their information and puts their two cents into the pot, and I assume that by adding all our ideas together we form some sort of combined intelligence which is more insightful and reliable together than any individual pundit could be.

And then I go back to the home page, and see all the rabid sports fans, and realize that these bets are not being placed by deep thinkers.
by pohuing | 2026-01-19 18:28:30+00:00
The newer amd and Intel systems are also copilot certified. After getting a new laptop last month I can say that it doesn't hurt and has some nice advantages. If you just ignore the stupid names. The NPU means your images can now get indexed by content without ruining your battery life for example, same thing with recall. Without certain hardware requirements there's no way these things could run on device.

Now MS just needs to keep working and refining these features that don't sell copilot subscriptions...
by jpmattia | 2026-01-19 18:28:31+00:00
Something that appears to be missing: Certain events attract "advertising" types of bets. E.g. There is value in making a candidate appear to be a leader, so dedicating dollars to swinging the market is more of a form of advertising than an intelligent bet.

So it would be interesting to measure the inefficiencies of various bets vs the total market value in that bet.

e: Although full disclosure, I did not pick apart the entire paper. Maybe it's buried in there.
by dagss | 2026-01-19 18:28:44+00:00
Why? Russia didn't have a protracted civil war between 2000-ish and now?

Isn't Trump busy replacing US Army leadership with those loyal to him? Why would Army and ICE be on opposite sides?

Seems MAGA just have to continue the present course and apply just enough pressure to the election system to keep "winning" half-credibly and autocracy is there in not too many years.

I mean they are already past pardoning those attacking congress for not accepting the election result.

It is just a gradual process which is well underway, at what point would California and Washington suddenly prop up a militia?
by nindalf | 2026-01-19 18:28:46+00:00
My guess based on what I've seen from Amsterdam, is that there would have been clashes in Birmingham, just as there were clashes in Amsterdam. Without getting into who was at fault and who would have been at fault, we're all better off for having avoided the violence. This would be unfair if the Maccabi fans were entirely blameless, but based on the reports from Amsterdam, the Maccabi fans weren't.

Btw, you clearly don't know much about Maccabi. Here there are a decade ago, with their fans being investigated for racism by the Israeli FA (https://newisraelfund.org.uk/issue/kick-it-out-complaint-lea...). Is the Israeli FA anti-semitic too? They've also been banned from Israeli stadiums in the past for hooliganism.
by dpc050505 | 2026-01-19 18:28:54+00:00
Free markets aren't even an exception. They're an abstract construction that exists to make economic analysis scientific by removing all confounding variables from the equation. I'd be extremely surprised to find one example where the conditions required of a free market truly existed.

If people knew more about economics than just whatever is being parroted as 'economics' in mainstream media they would know that there's a variety of types of markets that happen in the real world and none of them are the abstraction of a free market that allows econ 201 students to compare what happens when you introduce trade between a country that produces 4 apples for 3$ each and a country that produces 5 oranges for 4$ each.
by celsius1414 | 2026-01-19 18:29:10+00:00
Doing your job and doing your job well are two different things, of course. The innovation is going to have to be in how to return to the latter when they’ve lost their way. Or, perhaps more accurately, been led astray by conflicting priorities.

They’ve done it recently with their hardware. Past time for the other side of the house to refocus.
by CGMthrowaway | 2026-01-19 18:29:25+00:00
OK can you share more?

You called out per capita GDP as not a great metric but you didn't seem to deny that living in Monaco on a Monegasque income (for example, or any of these other monarchies) would be a bad thing, despite their type of government.

And you called out vast oil & gas resources as essential, or scale-tipping, for the goodness of a monarchy but I'm assuming you are against the US intervention in Venezuela for the purposes of securing such resources for American interest.

Did you have other factors in mind that you did not mention?
by massysett | 2026-01-19 18:29:27+00:00
The problem is both (1) knowing what you want, and (2) specifying what you want.

(1) is hard enough and a necessary prerequisite to (2) which, even so, is even harder than (1).

Good, documented software is the accumulated knowledge of people who (1) knew what they wanted, (2) implemented it, and (3) communicated how it works. AI can ease the building of such software but does not make the process trivial.
by luckylion | 2026-01-19 18:29:30+00:00
Yes, absolutely. I'm not talking about people who are not sociable _and_ can't produce, but people who don't care about your feelings, but are very strong in their work.

In other comments, it felt like they focused very much on the "low in soft skills" part without looking at the other skills being extended. Of course, someone who is unpleasant to work with and only writes buggy software will not help a project progress. But someone you don't want to spend time with but who carries your team through the project with his skill and productivity is a very different story.
by amiga386 | 2026-01-19 18:30:22+00:00
What part of "The Macabbi ultras were violent and racist hooligans" did you miss?

Also, why not mention what happened after?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2024/12/18/ams...

> Over the course of the night, police monitoring Telegram and WhatsApp began to detect “messages of aggression and threats toward Maccabi supporters,” according to a report produced afterward by city authorities. The vandalism of the taxi was “oil on the fire” in a community angered by the city’s decision to let the team play, said driver Mohamed Asri, 31, who was not working but watched the chat messages that night.

> At one point, a worker at Holland Casino tipped off a WhatsApp group that Maccabi fans were outside, according to screenshots of the messages obtained by The Post with usernames redacted. Police said there was a call for taxi drivers to mobilize, and cabs began to amass at the site.

> Maccabi fans ran inside the casino and security closed the doors behind them, according to casino spokesman Ilan Sluis. A bartender across the street said a group of about 50 people tried to break into the casino by rushing the doors for about 25 minutes.

> Kobi Itzajki, 34, a Maccabi fan, had just returned to a hotel when he received a message from a friend at the casino.

> “There’s an antisemitic event here,” read a 3:17 a.m. message, reviewed by The Post. “Turkish Muslims attacked Israelis who fled here. We’re locked inside the casino, bring the police.”

> Altercations took place in other parts of the city, too. A video posted online shortly after 3 a.m. shows a man struggling to swim in an icy canal and being forced to say “Free Palestine.”

> “TOMORROW AFTER THE GAME AT NIGHT PART 2 JEW HUNT,” someone wrote in a WhatsApp group just before 4 a.m.

... and so it goes on. Please read all of it.
by plmpsu | 2026-01-19 18:30:58+00:00
As opposed to the subpar software quality produced these days by the big tech companies (who even knows if Microsoft Outlook for macOS even has a functional product team), JetBrains have been continuously delivering new features and innovations in their products in ways which make my work and life better and easier.

I have been using JetBrains products since 2003, and it's rare to encounter such a long-term commitment to quality and users in software in the corporate space.

A new IntelliJ quarterly release is still something to be excited about since it solves real problems for developers.
by dundarious | 2026-01-19 18:31:31+00:00
> But why would there be particular reason to assume that there would be unrest at a match between fans from Tel Aviv and Birmingham who have no particular relation to each other?

Emphasis mine, but you said both in a connected statement, so I don't see the point in disputing anything about my quotation.

Edit: I see now have you've removed the dispute of my quotation as being inaccurate where you argued you said "particular relation" and not "particular reason" -- no worries, I've made similar mistakes before, so while I'll leave my above words, they don't matter anymore.

As for why Birmingham in particular, I don't see it as some kind of gotcha to say because there is a resident population in Birmingham that would be a likely target of racial/religious abuse by Maccabi fans, i.e., Muslim people, or even just "Arab" appearing people, or people showing Palestine solidarity. Amsterdam and Birmingham are similar in this regard (I lived in Amsterdam for years), in ways other cities may not be. I'm not clued into Stuttgart or the cities hosting other games, so I can't say if populations there are similar or not. Expecting a uniform approach from all cities would be ludicrous -- why mandate ignoring particularities?

I don't think this is a form of intolerance towards Maccabi fans, because the logic is identical to that of the Tel Aviv derby prohibition -- it's about preventing reasonably predictable confrontations that exceed some tolerance level.