by johnnyanmac | 2026-01-20 05:53:35+00:00
I think the issue here is that Venezuela was also all bluster... until it wasn't. Going through all the escalations that happened

1. Trump accuses Venezuela of trafficking in drugs to the US

2. Trump blows up a ship under suspicion of harboring drugs, breaking multiple laws in the process

3. January 3rd just happens. Congress is unaware, the press is unaware, the only dang signal of something major going on was increased orders from a local pizza joint.

4. The admin tries to spin it as drugs. Trump very openly says it's about Oil

5. the admin fumbles to talk about next steps. The supposed regime Trump wants to topple remains and already defects against the US.

6. in meetings with Oil companies (again, not congress. not his Cabinet. Oil companies), he now tries to sell the idea of investing in Venezuela

7. Pretty much no one except Chevron is really committing because it's an unstable situation. Trump comes out and says "we reached an agreement" anyway.

And here we are today (and that's the cliff notes. Not even mentioning how many the US killed in that Raid despite saying "no casualties". Or the idea of charging a venezuelan leader under old US laws. Or the mentality of Stephen Miller as a white nationalist war mongerer). The actions were not only compltetely reckless and circumvented all legal channels, but it also had zero mid/long term planning. It wasn't some carefully orchestrated upheaval. Even his greed can't think more than a few days ahead.

So yes. We have a stupid and reckless president. We can't really apply the same logical channels to this that we would for any other operation. We can only look at what's happened so far

1. President "jokes" about wanting greenland last year. And Canada. Remember that even going this far would be near impeachable offense in normal times

2. Trump runs a bunch of tarriffs on the whole world.

3. Trump tries to go on the "peace president" narrative to try and get the Nobel Peace Prize. Because Obama won one. this massively backfires in multiple ways

4. Trump does not win the peach prize. Well, he won the coveted FIFA peace prize. But that clearly wasn't enough for his ego

5. Venezuela happens. Talks on claiming Greenland continue to ramp back up.

6. Stephen Miller goes on an unhinged rant on CNN about the "Donroe doctrine" and spouts about how history had had countries conquer by force. We'd call it an over the top Onion article in normal times

7. White House reports of strategic advisers needing to refuse illegal orders to plan an attack on Greenland. Not corroboated by many because the most trustworthy press is still (illegally) banned from briefings and sources probably can't risk talking to them.

8. As recently as today, Trump made an unhinged letter to Sweden over the Nobel Peace prize kerfluffle. Remember at this time that the real winner already gave her trophy to Trump. But he's mad that Norway had to remind him that this isn't a transferrable reward.

in terms of Venezuela, we're still between #1 and #2 (an actual aggresion). But the amount of utterly deranged drivel coming out shows that once again, this admin is crazy and dumb. A dangerous combination. It's really coming down to whether or not soldiers on the ground can refuse illegal orders to prevent an all out war. This is awfully close to one of those nuclear crises avoided simply because the operator didn't approave the launch.

I really pray you are right and I look back and breathe a sigh of relief. But we truly are on a tipping point right now. And not one we can lay out a logical breadcrumb for (I spent 4 of my points talking about a president mad at not getting the Novel Peace Prize. Of course I'm very worried about the breadcrumbs).