by dghlsakjg | 2025-12-14 22:54:47+00:00
Bear with me:

Back at the start of our discourse, you tried to prove that a sub $500 computer can't exist by citing that B+H is selling sticks of 32gb of DDR5 for $384 while ignoring, or failing to find that they had 2 x 16 kits of Crucial branded RAM for $270 in stock when you made the claim. That deal is gone now at BH, but Best Buy has the exact same kit for $260 in stock right now (https://www.bestbuy.com/product/crucial-pro-32gb-2x16gb-ddr5...). Rather critically, the original post did NOT make any claims about the price of a 32GB RAM stick, it made a claim about the existence of a < $500 computer with 32GB of DDR5 and a Ryzen 7. I have definitively proven that multiple merchants in multiple countries can make good on that computer configuration at that price. That you CAN pay that much for RAM has nothing to do with my since proven claim about computer pricing.

You have said elsewhere that "a single entity bought more than 70% of the wafer production for the next year. That's across all types of memory modules." Based on reported industry rumors and press releases, OpenAI have made a non-binding agreement with two foundries that control 70% of the DRAM market for up to little more than half their output of raw DRAM wafers. That is a massive difference from buying 70% of the entire RAM market. Its a letter of intent for both foundries, and is very nebulous about that "up to" phrasing. Both of those deals was called a "Letter of Intent" by the foundry very specifically. If you aren't familiar, that specific phrase is typically used for a non-formalized agreement that has no legally enforceable provisions. No actual deal has been inked. I can understand how a misread happened, but not how you have such strong feelings on a story that you haven't understood the most basic details for. To summarize: not a deal in the legal/enforceable sense, not 70% of the global RAM or DRAM market, not all types of RAM, not even a firm commitment on the 40% of DRAM market from either party.

You say "I don't subscribe to Prime or pay any attention to how it's priced", but you somehow arrive on the only pricing option of the ~4 available options that undercuts what I am saying. I had to scroll to below the fold on google for "prime price" to get a single link that did not mention the lower monthly price in the search result. Even the google AI got it right. Yet, I am to give you the benefit of doubt that you have such specific, yet also profoundly limited, knowledge of the Prime program that you can cite the exact price of the yearly version of the product to prove a point, yet have no idea that a monthly subscription exists. A curiously specific ignorance.

There's more, but I'll move on.

I'm happy to accept your plea of ignorance, but it severely undercuts your arguments when you have to plea ignorance on the facts at the root of your arguments continually. It severely undercuts your plea of ignorance when every single number and fact you misquote happens to be an error in favor of your argument. People making mistakes in good faith tend not to make every single error in their own favor.

The worst part is, the position that RAM pricing will not drop has merit and is very arguable (although I don't agree given what I have seen so far). It is NOT a good thing for DRAM prices that OpenAI might have first dibs on a sizable minority of next years DRAM production. It is also not at all a given that that will be true. Continually using deceptively cherry picked, or outright wrong, numbers and info means that this conversation won't continue. I must insist on basing arguments in fact.

Thanks for the back and forth, for what it's worth. In any case, its always enlightening to get a good peak into how different people interpret numbers and facts, and arrive at their understanding of the world.