by defrost | 2025-12-09 00:09:25+00:00
For contrast (and with no AI involved) the dot points from a Sept 2024 BHP copper report are roughly:

* Total global copper demand has grown at a 3.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the last 75 years – but this growth rate has been slowing. It was only 1.9% over the 15 years to 2021. Looking to 2035, however, we expect this growth rate to jump back to 2.6% annually.

Considering global demand expectations, electrification trends, etc. this moves to:

* Putting all these levers together, we project global copper demand to grow by around 70% to over 50 Mt per annum by 2050 – an average growth rate of 2% per year.

On the supply side, considering recycling, the aluminium usage transition point, etc:

* We estimate that the world will need about 10 Mtpa new mined copper supply in the next 10 years.

To get this ...

* Copper reserves and production are concentrated in Latin America, Australia and Africa.

* We expect supply growth over the next 10 years to be dominated by the same regions – Latin America Africa and Asia Pacific – with Africa having the highest growth rate (albeit off a much lower base than Latin America), and Latin America continuing to make the most significant contribution in absolute terms.

Existing mines are falling off (they always are!):

* Currently operating copper mines are expected to provide more than half of the copper required to meet future global demand over the next decade. Even so, we estimate existing mines to be producing around 15% less copper in 2035 than they do today.

* We expect between one-third and one-half of global copper supply to face grade decline and ageing challenges over the next decade, which will drive increased unit costs and the requirement for capital reinvestment. While an incredible orebody can make a big difference, many older operations move up the cost curve as they progress through their life cycle. Given the strong demand signals, however, we expect the industry to vigorously pursue options to extend the life of these copper mines.

Brownfield developments will expand old mines; the practice of processing satellite deposits ignored early on.

Truly new mines:

* Greenfield projects continue to attract significant excitement and interest from developers and investors. They can avoid the challenges of aging facilities and grade decline and can unlock large and higher-grade copper deposits, develop new frontiers, and allow for the application of technology advances without the challenge of retrofitting.

* But they also have potentially even greater challenges to brownfield developments, such as long lead times with environmental and social concerns needing to be navigated for the first time, and uncertainties associated with new jurisdictions or regions. And not all problems can be solved with money. For some projects, it is not a question of investability, but of executability.

* The current pipeline of ‘all possible’ greenfield deposits are generally at the higher-difficulty end of the spectrum – and many are experiencing delays. When we investigated a selection of today’s 30 largest (by expected production volume) undeveloped greenfield projects, we found that analysts (ourselves included) had continually moved the forecast supply stack out in time. We expect these projects to contribute around 5 Mtpa of copper by 2035, or 14% of total possible supply.

The report, in full, is: https://www.bhp.com/news/bhp-insights/2024/09/how-copper-wil...

There are other similar reports from the IEA and other majors.

This is the literal ever ongoing dance of extraction, exploration, and development.

Every cent that goes to exploration is whinged over and penny pinched - it's all buckets of money out the door with no return other than bluesky hope.

As prospects appear and are firmed out, speculative money starts to flow, once Technical Feasibility Reports are in the works a frenzy begins, the bets may or may not pan out when such reports land in a Prospectus seeking forward capital investment.