by shagie | 2025-12-23 16:35:12+00:00
> What are your figures as a percentage of total production of Jim Beam goes to Canada?

I don't have Jim Beam specifically... but:

US spirits exports to Canada plummet 85% in Q2 - https://www.thespiritsbusiness.com/2025/10/us-spirits-export...

> Q2 exports of US spirits to Canada plummeted by 85% to US$9.6m, falling below the US$10m mark for the first time, according to the report.

> US spirits sales in Canada plunged by 68% in April 2025, while sales of Canadian and other imported spirits rose by around 3.6% each.

> Canada is a hugely important market for US spirits. In 2024, Canada imported US$221m worth of US spirits, making it the category’s second‐largest export market behind the EU.

Trade War Fallout: The Collapse of U.S. Spirit Exports to Canada in 2025 - https://southernagtoday.org/2025/12/18/trade-war-fallout-the...

> In 2025, U.S. spirit exports to Canada collapsed as a direct consequence of escalating trade tensions, marking one of the sharpest declines in cross-border alcohol trade in recent history. Prior to 2025, Canada accounted for about 11% of U.S. distilled spirit exports. Between 2022 and 2024, Canadian imports exceeded $250 million annually, making Canada the second-largest market for American whiskey, bourbon, rum, and other distilled spirits (USDA, 2025). In March 2025, Canada effectively halted imports and sales of U.S. wine and spirits in retaliation for tariffs imposed by President Trump on Canadian goods. Provincial liquor boards removed American products from shelves, triggering a dramatic plunge in U.S. spirit exports (DISCUS, 2025). Canada also imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. distilled spirits and other products in March 2025, which was lifted in September (Government of Canada, 2025). However, the impact far exceeded what would be expected from a 25% tariff alone, underscoring the severity of the trade dispute.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/557788/whisky-dollar-sal...

has historical "how much is imported" - though not brand specific.

https://wits.worldbank.org/trade/comtrade/en/country/CAN/yea...

Has one year and United States is the 2nd after United Kingdom for amount of whiskey imported into Canada.

Combine that with the earlier "Q2 exports of US spirits to Canada plummeted by 85% to US$9.6m, falling below the US$10m mark for the first time, according to the report."

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> The US's multiyear slump is enough to 'justify' the temporary stoppage, along with if 'no one is being fired' why is production expected to greatly be reduced?

There's also that Kentucky taxes aging bourbon.

https://kybourbon.com/industry-news/the-bourbon-state-challe...

> Kentucky distillers are footing a crushing $75 million tab in aging barrel taxes this year, a 27% increase from 2024 and an astronomical 163% increase over the last five years alone. Kentucky remains the only place in the world that taxes aging barrels of spirits.

> Barrel taxes are based on the assessed value of aging barrels which surged to $10 billion this year, a 25% increase over last year’s record of $8 billion. In addition to the 16.1 million barrels of Bourbon, a million barrels of other spirits are aging for a total of 17.1 million barrels.

And part of that is that they overproduced in the earlier part of this decade compared to what they need... take into account that bit about aging barrels are taxed.

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Combine all of that with "Gen Z is not drinking as much" ( https://www.ohbev.com/blog/gen-z-alcohol-trends-consumption-... https://time.com/7203140/gen-z-drinking-less-alcohol/ ) and Jim Beam is predicting reduced demand over the next 5 years for their products. Lets call that "the amount you can make in 1 year is 20% a year over 5 years..."

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/22/dining/jim-beam-productio...

> The situation will likely get worse as 2025 draws to a close: At the end of October MGP Ingredients, which distills whiskey on contract for other brands, reported a 19 percent drop in sales for the third quarter.

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> ... along with if 'no one is being fired' ...

From the NYT article:

> It also said it would continue production at its two other distilleries in Kentucky and would keep its bottling facility and visitor center open at the Clermont site. It did not say whether the workers at the distillery would be furloughed or moved to other facilities.

The wording is furlough. That's not firing. The positions aren't being eliminated nor is the person's employment being terminated ... but there is no work for them to do at that location.

It's also important to note that this is following overproduction from the earlier part of this decade. Again from the NYT article:

> The sudden, steep decline in bourbon sales comes after more than 20 years of expansion in American whiskey, which regularly reached 5 percent in annual growth. It went from about $1.4 billion in sales in 2004 to about $5.2 billion in 2024, according to data from the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, a trade group.

> American whiskey proved especially popular during the pandemic. Consumers stuck at home with spare cash and time fueled an explosion in collecting and buying bottles through auctions and online via informal (and often illegal) markets.

> In response, distilleries boosted production, putting aside millions of barrels to age, announcing multimillion-dollar expansions and flooding the market with new products. Today there are an estimated 16.1 million barrels of whiskey aging across Kentucky. A standard barrel holds 53 gallons, though a significant amount is lost to evaporation during aging.

Specifically for Jim Beam that can be seen in Jim Beam invests $400M to ramp up bourbon production (from 2022) - https://www.foxbusiness.com/lifestyle/jim-beam-invests-400m-...

> With a 50% increase in production of bourbon comes a 50% in used oak barrels which, in time, will help satiate the growing demand for all whiskey including Scotch.