by shagie | 2025-12-23 20:12:12+00:00
> Alcohol is not declining in popularity

https://www.ohbev.com/blog/gen-z-alcohol-trends-consumption-...

> Generation Z (roughly those born 1997–2012) is reshaping the beverage-alcohol landscape. Numerous studies show that Gen Z (now of legal drinking age in many markets) consistently drinks far less than older cohorts . For example, one analysis finds Gen Z consumes about 20% less alcohol per capita than Millennials or Boomers . In the U.S., surveys report that around half of Gen Zers (age 21+) have never had an alcoholic drink . Among those who do drink, most consume only occasionally or moderately . In short, Gen Z overall is drinking less frequently and less heavily – a dramatic generational shift from previous norms.

(aside: of course, GenX remains the forgotten generation in demographics)

(August 2025) https://news.gallup.com/poll/693362/drinking-rate-new-low-al...

> The percentage of U.S. adults who say they consume alcohol has fallen to 54%, the lowest by one percentage point in Gallup’s nearly 90-year trend. This coincides with a growing belief among Americans that moderate alcohol consumption is bad for one’s health, now the majority view for the first time.

https://www.thedrinksbusiness.com/2025/11/global-alcohol-gia...

> Shares in the world’s biggest beer, wine and spirits producers have collectively lost $830 billion in market value over just four years, according to Bloomberg. A Bloomberg index tracking around 50 listed drinks companies now stands 46% below its June 2021 peak.

> Bloomberg found that changing drinking habits and rising health concerns have hit earnings across the sector. The downturn has been compounded by US tariffs, high interest rates weighing on consumer spending, and elevated commodity prices. In China, weak household confidence and a ban on alcohol at official functions have further dragged on demand.

> “There is a structural change going on — people are drinking less,” said Sarah Simon, an analyst at Morgan Stanley.

> The key challenge, Bloomberg noted, lies in changing consumer behaviour. In August, a Gallup survey found that US alcohol consumption had dropped to its lowest point since records began in 1939. Health warnings from organisations such as the World Health Organization and the US Surgeon General have further dampened demand among Generation X.

> For millennials and Gen Z, alcohol has also lost its appeal. A growing list of teetotal celebrities — including Tom Holland and Katy Perry — have helped popularise the non-alcoholic trend, while the use of weight-loss drugs such as Ozempic and the rise of cannabis alternatives have added pressure.

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> and the tariffs are specifically affecting foreign-owned and export-heavy businesses.

However, countries (like Canada) are returning with retaliatory tariffs. For Canada, you've got https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14354113/canada-fan... from February 2025.

> Canadian shops are stripping US liquor from their shelves just hours after Donald Trump imposed 25% tariffs on imports from their country.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/kentucky-bourbon-industry-ca...

> Last month, the EU announced it plans to impose a 50% tariff on all American whiskey in response to Trump's decision to bring back tariffs on overseas steel and aluminum imports. Trump said on social media that he would retaliate by levying 200% tariffs on all wines, champagne and other alcoholic products imported from the region should the EU move forward with its spirits tariff. The EU will make its final decision on April 13.

> Meanwhile, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said Ottawa is imposing 25% tariffs on U.S. imports in response to Trump's measures. In addition, the government-run Liquor Control Board of Ontario ordered all retailers, bars and restaurants to stop selling American products. The board reported that U.S. alcohol sold within the province accounts for "annual sales of up to $965 million," representing "more than 3,600 products from 35 US states."

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadian-boycott-us-s...

> Several Canadian provinces pulled U.S. spirits from liquor stores in response to U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of a 25% tariff on certain imports.

> Most recently, Trump's threat to impose a 35% tariff on Canadian goods starting August 1 has raised concerns about an escalating trade war and spurred a "Buy Canadian" movement among consumers and businesses.

> In early March, Jack Daniel's maker Brown-Forman Corp (BFb.N), opens new tab called the removal of American bourbon and whiskey from Canadian liquor stores worse than Canada's retaliatory tariffs and described it as a disproportionate response to Trump's levies.

> According to Spirits Canada, sales of U.S. spirits in Ontario, Canada's largest market for spirits, plunged 80% after the products were removed from shelves. Two provinces, Alberta and Saskatchewan, have since resumed selling U.S. spirits, the group said.

And while the reciprocal tariffs have been dropped (August), the boycott of various provinces for American spirits combined with a "buy local" attitude (this is understating it for some) is impacting sales.

It is back on the shelves... (Dec 12th) https://www.nytimes.com/2025/12/12/world/canada/canada-ameri...

> At least four Canadian provinces — Manitoba, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland and Labrador — have decided to sell the stockpiles of American liquor that they pulled from shelves months ago in protest over President Trump’s tariffs. But once those bottles are gone, officials said they have no plans to buy more.

> Manitoba plans to stop selling American liquor on Dec. 24, and will not buy more as it as it continues to protest U.S. tariffs, Mr. Kinew said. “Everybody recognizes the Trump administration’s actions to threaten our economy are something we have to have solidarity around,” he said.

So... yea... Bourbon sales to Canada are export heavy businesses. There have been reciprocal tariffs and there is an ongoing boycott of American spirits that distilleries are saying hurts them more than the reciprocal tariffs.

Combine this with the uncertainty (what companies are looking at) over what the political (tariffs on and off what a whim) and economic situation (inflation resulting in less luxury items getting sold, changing demographic preferences (coupled with state by state legalization of cannabis)) and forecast how this will impact sales. Saying "we've got too much stock maturing in 4 years already" and so not producing more is completely reasonable.