MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
Show HN: AI that caught Kalshi showing 86% when Vegas had it at 12%
by simullab | 2025-12-20 19:44:21+00:00
been watching prediction markets for a while and kept noticing Kalshi/Polymarket showing completely different numbers than Vegas. built something to catch these systematically. pulls Kalshi and Polymarket data, then fires off requests to like 36 other sources at once - sportsbook APIs, polling sites, Reddit for sentiment, news stuff, whatever. when the numbers don't line up it flags it. tested it last night on the Paul vs Joshua boxing match. Kalshi had Paul at 86% to win. checked every Vegas book and they all had Joshua at -1200 which is 92% implied. complete opposite direction. flagged it immediately. Joshua knocked him out in the 6th round. technical stuff:

using Python with async calls cause hitting 30+ APIs at once tried GPT-4 for sentiment analysis initially but it was way too slow so built a custom thing runs on Poe so I don't have to deal with hosting costs takes about 2 minutes per analysis

questions I have:

is one successful call actual validation or did I just get lucky? what other data sources should I be checking? thinking about adding order flow tracking has anyone else built something similar for prediction markets? how fast do these inefficiencies typically get arbitraged away?

honestly wasn't sure if this would work at all. feedback appreciated especially on the methodology side.
by why-o-why | 2025-12-20 19:44:33+00:00
>> Zephyr loves to reuse Linux tooling but it simply doesn't fit.

What? It has its own tooling.

>> What is implemented and tested directly by SoC vendors works,

Yes, that's the point.

>> And HAL for MCUs is simply a pipedream.

Huh? What does this even mean?

>> Want to read this I2C sensor once an hour? Too bad, the build-in driver can only poll it constantly in a dedicated thread

That's literally how it an RTOS works. I'm baffled by your complaint. It sounds like you just don't understand embedded programming.

>> There is no common denominator like there is on desktop.

Ah ok, there we go: found the problem. If you expect linux, then of course you'll miss all of the embedded patterns that Zephyr solves cross-platform.

Their HAL works, their stacks work, the portability is incredibly smooth compared to other vendors. I just disagree with everything you've said in my experience using it, and working with companies that use it.
by api | 2025-12-20 19:44:53+00:00
I've said this since time immemorial, and networking people often dismiss it. "Just use DNS," say people who have never actually worked netops or devops.

The length of the addresses and the clunky nature of their ASCII representation is absolutely the #1 reason the IPv6 has taken this long. User experience is the most powerful force affecting large scale adoption, and IPv6 has poor UX.

I think the UX is partly fixable by creating less horrible ASCII representation, but this would take a lot of coordination that was hard even back then and is virtually impossible now. If someone told me in 500 years we're still running dual-stack IPv4/IPv6 absolutely unchanged, I'd believe it.
by starttoaster | 2025-12-20 19:46:35+00:00
"which cost almost nothing for low traffic" you invented the retort "what about high traffic" within your own message. I don't even necessarily mean user traffic either. But if you constantly have to sync new records over (as could be the case in any kind of timeseries use-case) the internal traffic could rack up costs quickly.

"vastly superior to self hosting regarding observability" I'd suggest looking into the cnpg operator for Postgres on Kubernetes. The builtin metrics and official dashboard is vastly superior to what I get from Cloudwatch for my RDS clusters. And the backup mechanism using Barman for database snapshots and WAL backups is vastly superior to AWS DMS or AWS's disk snapshots which aren't portable to a system outside of AWS if you care about avoiding vendor lock-in.
by zbentley | 2025-12-20 19:46:56+00:00
Does CF matter, when intermediate ISPs are collecting IP address and DNS query activity and can be subpoenaed?

The answer to both this and parent is yes: partial privacy improvements are still improvements. There are two big reasons for this and many smaller reasons as well:

First, legal actors prioritize who to take action against; some cases are “worth seeing if $law-enforcement-agency can get logs from self-hosted or colo’d servers with minimal legal trouble” but not “worth subpoenaing cloudflare/a vpn provider/ISP for logs that turned out not to be stored on the servers that received the traffic“.

Second, illegal actors are a lot more likely to break into your servers and be able to see traffic information than they are to be able to break into cloudflare/vpn/ISP infrastructure. Sure, most attackers aren’t interested in logs. But many of the kind of websites whose logs law enforcement is interested in are also interesting to blackmailers.
by Animats | 2025-12-20 19:46:57+00:00
Here's China's current IPv6 plan.[1] It was an explicit objective of the 14th Five Year Plan, now concluding, to get most of China's Internet on IPv6. About 70% of China's mobile users are on IPv6 now. But fixed IPv6 traffic in China is only 27%.

[1] https://www.cac.gov.cn/2025-05/20/c_1749446498560205.htm
by mkagenius | 2025-12-20 19:47:07+00:00
You can achieve what Skills achieve via function calling somewhat.

I've this mental map:

Frontmatter <---> Name and arguments of the function

Text part of Skill md <---> description field of the function

Code part of the Skill <---> body of the function

But the function wouldn't look as organised as the .md, also, Skill can have multiple function definitions.
by chneu | 2025-12-20 19:47:51+00:00
I think blaming AI isn't quite right.

I think the current mentality of "Make every process in life as easy and time-efficient as possible" is the problem.

AI is just a tool. What someone does with it is up to them. The current desire to not do anything, however, means people will abuse AI to make their lives more segregated from the work that enables them.

As technology progresses, people are less connected to the how and why of life. This leads to people not understanding how to do basic things. Nobody can do anything on their own and they have to pay money to someone for really basic stuff. People can hardly go grocery shopping anymore as it takes too much time. Peak capitalism?

Really just watch Idiocracy. AI isnt the problem; people's desire to do as little as possible is the problem.
by threethirtytwo | 2025-12-20 19:49:00+00:00
Monoliths can scale to handle tons of users. Microservices are only needed for a specific type of scaling. For example Netflix you need http servers but you also need servers to handle video streaming. Or for google the search engine must be different from Gmail. Most companies provide 1 or few services that can be handled and scaled as a monolith to handle anything.
by Arodex | 2025-12-20 19:49:04+00:00
>Every time I've used as a CAD GUI program I would get to this point where I would need to alter a single dimension by 0.25mm and realize that _all_ of my fastener holes, cutouts, etc have to be nudged with the keyboard or mouse to accommodate it.

What.

This makes no sense. This isn't PowerPoint; your holes and cutouts are supposed to be parameterized. How are they even supposed to be at the proper position in the first place?

As a CAD user, this is like e.g. a coder seeing someone write code with global variables everywhere.
by esrauch | 2025-12-20 19:49:14+00:00
I think an example where libraries could sensibly log error is if you have a condition which is recoverable but may cause a significant slowdown, including a potential DoS issue, and the application owner can remediate.

You don't want to throw because destroying someone's production isn't worth it. You don't want to silent continue in that state because realistically there's no way for application owner to understand what is happening and why.
by crazygringo | 2025-12-20 19:50:17+00:00
This is insane.

I definitely was not aware Spotify DRM had been cracked to enable downloading at scale like this.

The thing is, this doesn't even seem particularly useful for average consumers/listeners, since Spotify itself is so convenient, and trying to locate individual tracks in massive torrent files of presumably 10,000's of tracks each sounds horrible.

But this does seem like it will be a godsend for researchers working on things like music classification and generation. The only thing is, you can't really publicly admit exactly what dataset you trained/tested on...?

Definitely wondering if this was in response to desire from AI researchers/companies who wanted this stuff. Or if the major record labels already license their entire catalogs for training purposes cheaply enough, so this really is just solely intended as a preservation effort?
by mattmanser | 2025-12-20 19:50:24+00:00
So can the cloud, and cloud has had more major outages in the last 3 months than I've seen on self-hosted in 20 years.

Deploys these days take minutes so what's the problem if a disk does go bad? You lose at most a day of data if you go with the 'standard' overnight backups, and if it's mission critical, you will have already set up replicas, which again is pretty trivial and only slightly more complicated than doing it on cloud hosts.
by PaulKeeble | 2025-12-20 19:50:37+00:00
When I moved to an ISP that supported IPv6 earlier this year I ran into niggly problems. Ubuntu failed to update because one of its regional servers was misconfigured. OpenDNS one of its servers seemed not to be there on a regular basis over IPv6. I also had odd behaviour and latency issues where sometimes IPv6 would fail to route for short periods and it would fail and fall back to IPv4.

It was a painful experience of trying to work out if I had misconfigured it, if it was something to do with my opensource router software or if it was my ISP or the end services. I didn't get to the end of working this out and reporting issues and I just gave up. Due to the intermittent nature of the issues I was facing I never managed to get a report of issues my ISP would accept.

So I'll give it some time and give it a try after a year and see if things have improved, but it was definitely not ready for prime time.
by lofaszvanitt | 2025-12-20 19:50:50+00:00
I was on a severely restricted budget and self hosted everything for 15+ years, while the heavily used part of the database was on a RAM card. The RAM drive was soft raided to a hard drive pair which were 3Ware raid1 hdds, just in case, and also did a daily backup on the database and during that time never had any data loss and never had to restore anything from backup. And my options were severely restricted due to a capped income.

The real downside wasn't technical. The constant background anxiety you had to learn to live with, since the hosted news sites were hammered by the users. The dreaded SMS alerts saying the server was inaccessible (often due to ISP issues) or going abroad meant persuading one of your mates to keep an eye on things just in case, created a lot of unnecessary stress.

AWS is quite good. It has everything you need and removes most of that operational burden, so the angst is much lower, but the pricing is problematic.
by notatoad | 2025-12-20 19:51:18+00:00
the whole point of the essay here is that you should make a distinction between errors that you care about and plan to fix, and errors that you don't care about and don't intend to do anything about. and if you don't intend to do anything about it, it shouldn't be logged as error.

i'm following the author's example that an SMTP connection error is something you want to investigate and fix. if you have a different system with different assumptions where your response to a mailserver being unreachable is to ignore it, obviously that example doesn't apply for you. i'm not saying, and i don't think the author is saying that SMTP errors should always or never be logged as errors.

when the mailserver endpoint has changed, you should do the thing that makes sense in the context of your application. if it's not something that the person responsible for reviewing the logs needs to know about, don't log it. if it is, then log it.
by yetanotherjosh | 2025-12-20 19:51:27+00:00
I practiced the Buteyko method for many years when I was in states of high anxiety and frequent panic attacks, and it was incredibly helpful. I had a syndrome called new daily persistent headache, which means a sudden-onset headache that becomes constant from that instant forward, as in 24/7, for years. It's hard for people who haven't experienced that to understand I mean that literally. Buteyko breathing was the only thing that ever cut down on that headache, and a couple times I was able to suspend it for an hour or two, which when you have a literally constant headache for years, is a big deal.

My big takeaway from it was that breathing and neurological state are deeply connected and actually relaxed, natural, healthy breathing (and the corresponding state of the brain and nervous system) is something that most people have probably never even experienced unfortunately. We all think our state is normal, but I assure you, it is very far from the state where your control pause is 40s-60s or more, it's a radically different experience.

Also the nuance of what the control pause and how to measure it correctly is lost on I would say, even most people who attempt to learn Buteyko. The control pause is how long you can, under normal breathing, suspend breath with zero discomfort, and then prefectly resume normal breathing without any change from before. If you took a bigger breath to start, or when you start breathing again it's even slightly heavier, it's not a control pause measurement, it becomes an ego metric juiced to make you feel better about a number while avoiding the disappointing facts.

Buteyko claimed that healthy breathing had a 40+ second control pause. Which if you think about the real meaning and how to measure it, is a super long time. And I got there sometimes, it's a major learning experience about what deep alignment and relaxation of the brain/nerves can really feel like.
by dmoy | 2025-12-20 19:51:47+00:00
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46334725

TL;DR

Camera makes it look more than it is, it's mostly just sag

If you want to see electrical with significant zig zag, open up the wall of a house that was built without very detailed plans, but still hired an electrician with a lot of prior experience being told to move stuff after the fact. They just zig zag it like crazy under the drywall, so there's an incredible amount of slack to pull wire to new and exciting unplanned locations.
by reilly3000 | 2025-12-20 19:51:48+00:00
I think we can get to the point where we have self-hosted agents that can manage db maintenance and recovery. There could be regular otel -> * -> Grafana -> ~PagerDuty -> you and TriageBot which would call specialists to gather state and orchestrate a response.

Scripts could kick off health reports and trigger operations. Upgrades and recovery runbooks would be clearly defined and integration tested.

It would empower personal sovereignty.

Someone should make this in the open. Maybe it already exists, there are a lot of interesting agentops projects.

If that worked 60% of the time and I had to figure out the rest, I’d self host that. I’d pay for 80%+.
by abdullahkhalids | 2025-12-20 19:51:56+00:00
> Every time I've used as a CAD GUI program I would get to this point where I would need to alter a single dimension by 0.25mm and realize that _all_ of my fastener holes, cutouts, etc have to be nudged with the keyboard or mouse to accommodate it.

I am just starting to learn CAD and FreeCAD - also dabbled a bit in OpenSCAD. But I do know that FreeCAD has Spreadsheets [1] and Configuration Tables [2] which allows you to define your model parameterically and changes values as needed.

How good this is, I don't know yet.

[1] https://wiki.freecad.org/Spreadsheet_Workbench [2] https://wiki.freecad.org/Configuration_Tables
by niceguy1827 | 2025-12-20 19:53:22+00:00
Aren't people already stupid enough? The fact that the author wrote this article without verifying if the existing trend of children's IQ shows some level of stupidity.

And please excuse my language. I probably watch George Carlin videos a bit too much.

> For example, a 2018 analysis by researchers at Northwestern University and the University of Oregon found that average IQ scores in the U.S. began declining slightly after 1995, particularly in younger generations. This reversal mirrors findings in several European countries, including Norway, Denmark, and the UK.

https://nchstats.com/average-iq-by-state-in-us/
by Nextgrid | 2025-12-20 19:53:49+00:00
Music piracy is already a thing, not to mention you don't even need to torrent nowadays when music is available for free on YouTube. Those who don't want to pay already don't pay so nothing changes there.

The value of Spotify is the convenience, and this collection does not change that in any way. Your argument would apply if someone were to make a Spotify clone with the same UX using this data.
by lloeki | 2025-12-20 19:53:58+00:00
Each device gets directly addressable from WAN with v6 but it also gets a randomised privacy IP that rotates very frequently so each individual device is just as "hidden" as it was with v4+NAT.

Your v6 subnet prefix is no different than whatever WAN-side v4 your NAT had. "Accidental semi-randomization" of the WAN side IP is not something one could reliably count on. Many ISPs just hand over a static-like IP, that is, even when it's supposed to be random the pool of IPs is so constrained that it's usually the same simply through the IP lease surviving power cycling. And that was before CGNAT.

If your concern is being identifiable through your IP then counting on whatever v4 artifact is the wrong move. Use a VPN with randomised exit nodes.
by Jon_Lowtek | 2025-12-20 19:54:13+00:00
this is not a new issue: airbus has been the victim of corporate espionage supposedly by boeing with aid by the nsa in a well documented case in november 2011, and they are not the only victim of US government agency supported corporate espionage: investigations into the selector lists that ran in the cabinet noir at DE-CIX have shown that a large part of them were targeting european corporations. and that predates the cloud act of 2018, which made american infrastructure significantly less trustworthy.
by daveguy | 2025-12-20 19:54:24+00:00
> drive to the store or to work

If you don't do that, and are a homesteader, then yes. You are a very small minority outlier. (Assuming you aren't ordering supplies delivered instead of driving to the store.

> Eat meat.

Yes, not eating meat is in the minority.

> Fly on vacation.

So, don't vacation, walk to vacation, or drive to vacation? 1/3 are also consumptive.

It seems you are either a very significant outlier, or you're being daft. I'm curious which. Would you mind clarifying?
by anonymous908213 | 2025-12-20 19:54:44+00:00
Having everybody connected leads to homogenization of culture in some ways

The internet may hypothetically homogenize culture relative to a society that does not have any kind of mass communication at all, but relative to the world it was actually introduced into, the internet has completely balkanised the culture. Prior to the internet, we had television, cinema, literature, radio, and newspapers, which were all centralised and controlled enough that they created a shared monoculture in nations. A signifant portion of a country's population would watch, read, and listen to the same media. The internet bucked that trend, allowing all kinds of new subcultures to pop up and to more easily cross national boundaries.
by azov | 2025-12-20 19:55:07+00:00
If my system doesn’t work - I want to be alerted. If notification was supposed to be sent but wasn’t - it’s an error regardless of whether it wasn’t sent because of a bug in my code or external service being down. It may be a warning if I’m still retrying, but if I gave up - it’s an error.

“External service down, not my problem, nothing I can do” is hardly ever the case - e.g. you may need to switch to a backup provider, initiate a support call, or at least try to figure out why it’s down and for how long.
by estimator7292 | 2025-12-20 19:55:19+00:00
The same way an LED is not a solar panel. It will give you some voltage, but basically a rounding error above zero.

Antenna are about capturing energy over macro scale areas. This atom is measuring electromagnetic oscillation at a particular point in space. Technically you can recover a signal, but only a rounding error above the noise floor. It doesn't capture energy.
by Aurornis | 2025-12-20 19:55:21+00:00
> The thing is, this doesn't even seem particularly useful for average consumers/listeners, since Spotify itself is so convenient, and trying to locate individual tracks in massive torrent files of presumably 10,000's of tracks each sounds horrible.

I wouldn’t be so sure. There are already tools to automatically locate and stream pirated TV and movie content automatic and on demand. They’re so common that I had non-technical family members bragging at Thanksgiving about how they bought at box at their local Best Buy that has an app which plays any movie or TV show they want on demand without paying anything. They didn’t understand what was happening, but they said it worked great.

> Definitely wondering if this was in response to desire from AI researchers/companies who wanted this stuff.

The Anna’s archive group is ideologically motivated. They’re definitely not doing this for AI companies.
by MobiusHorizons | 2025-12-20 19:55:27+00:00
What you are proposing sounds like a nightmare to debug. The high level perspective of the operation is of course valuable for determining if an investigation is necessary, but the low level perspective in the library code is almost always where the relevant details are hiding. Not logging these details means you are in the dark about anything your abstractions are hiding from higher level code (which is usually a lot)
by mike_d | 2025-12-20 19:55:57+00:00
IPv4 isn't perfect, but it was designed to solve a specific set of problems.

IPv6 was designed by political process. Go around the room to each engineer and solve for their pet peeve to in turn rally enough support to move the proposal forward. As a bunch of computer people realized how hard politics were they swore never to do it again and made the address size so laughably large that it was "solved" once and for all.

I firmly believe that if they had adopted any other strategy where addresses could be meaningfully understood and worked with by the least skilled network operators, we would have had "IPv6" adoption 10 years ago.

My personal preference would have been to open up class E space (240-255.*) and claw back the 6 /8s Amazon is hoarding, be smarter about allocations going forward, and make fees logarithmic based on the number of addresses you hold.
by basisword | 2025-12-20 19:56:11+00:00
>> But this does seem like it will be a godsend for researchers working on things like music classification and generation. The only thing is, you can't really publicly admit exactly what dataset you trained/tested on...?

Didn't Meta already publicly admit they trained their current models on pirated content? They're too big to fail. I look forward to my music Slop.
by hedayet | 2025-12-20 19:56:13+00:00
I agree with the principle: log level error should mean someone needs to fix something.

This post frames the problem almost entirely from a sysadmin-as-log-consumer perspective, and concludes that a correctly functioning system shouldn’t emit error logs at all. That only holds if sysadmins are the only "someone" who can act.

In practice, if there is a human who needs to take action - whether that’s a developer fixing a bug, an infra issue, or coordinating with an external dependency - then it’s an error. The solution isn’t to downgrade severity, but to route and notify the right owner.

Severity should encode actionability, not just system correctness.