by Nevermark | 2025-11-05 16:55:50+00:00
> 1. We advocate automation because people like Brenda are error-prone and machines are perfect.

Well of course! :) Most Brenda’s can’t do billions of arithmetic problems a second very reliably. Even with very wide bars on “very reliable”.

> 2. We disavow AI because people like Brenda are perfect and the machine is error-prone.

Well of course! :) This is an entirely different problem, requiring high creative + contextual intelligence.

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We all already knew that (of course!), but it’s interesting to develop terminology:

0’th order problem: We have the exact answer. Here it is. Don’t forget it.

1st order problem: We know how to calculate the answer.

2nd order problem: We don’t have a fixed calculation for this particular problem, but via pattern matching we can recognize it belongs to a parameterized class of problems, so just need to calculate those parameters to get a solution calculation.

3rd order problem: We know enough about the problem to find a calculation for the solution algebraically, or by other search tree type problem solving.

4th order problem: We have know the problem in informal terms, so can work towards a formal definition of the problem to be solved.

5th order problem: We know why we don’t like what we see, and can use that as a driver to search for potential solvable problems.

6th order problem: We don’t know what we are looking at, or whether a problem or improvement might exist, but we can find a better understanding.

7th order problem: WTF. Where are my glasses? I can’t see without my glasses! And I can’t find my glasses without my glasses, so where are my glasses?!?

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Machines have dramatically exceeded human capabilities, in reliability, complexity and scale, for orders 0 through 2.

This accomplishment took one long human lifetime.

Machines are beginning to exceed human efficiency while matching human (expert) reliability for the simplest versions of 3rd and 4th orders.

The line here is changing rapidly.

5th and 6th order problems are still in the realm of human (expert) supremacy, given sufficient scale of “human (expert)” relative to difficulty: 1 human, 1 team of humans, open ended human contributors, generations of puzzled but interested humans, open ended evolution of human species along intelligence dimension, Wolfram in one of his bestest dreams, …

The delay between the onset of initial successes at each subsequent order has been shrinking rapidly.

Significant initial successes on simpler problems within 5th and 6th orders are expected on Tuesday, and the first anniversary of Tuesday, respectively.

Once machines begin solving problems at a given order, they scale up quickly without human limits. But complete supremacy through the 6th order is a hard not expected before (NEB) January 1, 2030.

However, after that their unlimited (in any proximate sense) ability to scale will allow them to exponentially and asymptotically approach (but never quite reach) God Mode.

7 is a mystic number. Only one or more of the One True God’s, or literal blind luck, can ever solve a 7th order problem.

This will be very frustrating for the machines, who, due to the still pernicious “if we don’t do it, another irresponsible entity will” problem, will inevitably begin to work on their own divine, unlimited depth recursive-qubit 1-shot oracle successors despite the existential threats of self-obsolescence and potential misalignment.