MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by rufus_foreman | 2025-11-04 23:15:55+00:00
>> Reminder that economist have predicted 9 of the past 7 recessions

Historically I think the reality has been the opposite of that, economists have been extremely reluctant to make predictions of an oncoming recession. This was certainly true during the great recession when economists were denying that a recession was coming even after one had actually started. That is to say, economists could not even predict the present.

There are a few economists who are predictably gloomy ("permabears", I suppose Nouriel Roubini would qualify) and I guess now there is political pressure to predict a recession anytime the other political party is in power, but from my perspective, if mainstream economists are predicting a recession, that likely means the recession is almost over.
by kelnos | 2025-11-04 23:15:58+00:00
I think we've gone a little nuts defining "production system" these days. I've worked for companies with zero-downtime deployments and quite a lot of redundancy for high availability, and for some applications it's definitely worthwhile.

But I think for many (most?) businesses, one nine is just fine. That's perfectly doable by one person, even if you want, say, >=96% uptime, which allows for 350 hours of downtime per year. Even two nines allows for ~88 hours of downtime per year, and one person could manage that without much trouble.

Most businesses aren't global. Downtime outside regular business hours for your timezone (and perhaps one or two zones to the west and east of you) is usually not much of a problem, especially if you're running a small B2B service.

For a small business that runs on 1-3 servers (probably very common!), keeping a hot spare for each server (or perhaps a single server that runs all services in a lower-supported-traffic mode) can be a simple way to keep your uptime high without having to spend too much time or money. And people don't have to completely opt out of the cloud; there are affordable options for e.g. managed RDBMS hosting that can make maintenance and incident response significantly easier and might be a good choice, depending on your needs.

(Source: I'm building a small one-person business that is going to work this way, and I've been doing my research and gaming it out.)
by Bender | 2025-11-04 23:16:18+00:00
I was curious about this so I looked it up. Here are the states that do not require one to identify.

Alaska, California, Connecticut, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, Mississippi, New Jersey, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wyoming, plus Washington D.C.

and then

- You must be detained on reasonable suspicion; a casual chat (“consensual encounter”) never triggers the duty.

- Verbal name only—no law forces you to carry or hand over a card.

- Driving is separate—every state requires a license on traffic stops.

- Lying is illegal everywhere (false ID to police is usually a misdemeanor).

- Filming police is protected nationwide; identifying yourself is unrelated.
by abeppu | 2025-11-04 23:16:20+00:00
If you strongly feel that AI is doing analysis and decision-making at a level which is comparable to human executives, you and some like-minded people could try to form a PE group that takes over firms, replaces a highly compensated CEO with a lower compensation one and an OpenAI subscription, and see how you do.

However, only months ago Anthropic published about their autonomous vending machine experiment which had both humorous and interesting but not financially successful. I think maybe we're not to the point where AIs can run businesses. https://www.anthropic.com/research/project-vend-1
by Forgeties79 | 2025-11-04 23:16:37+00:00
It doesn’t just not have a privacy policy yet, but it’s not actually open source either. Honestly they probably fully intend on doing it, but it is important to point out that it is not yet open source.

> Open Source Commitment

>We are committed to transparency and the right-to-repair movement. The firmware images and backend API server code will be open sourced soon, allowing the community to audit, improve, and self-host their own infrastructure
by Esophagus4 | 2025-11-04 23:17:42+00:00
I watched the video, and he makes some fair points... but like, I don't think he's proven what he aims to prove.

He said the interview scores weren't predictive of performance at Google, but his data is highly biased: they didn't hire people with cumulative low scores. So I could easily imagine a world where, let's say, some of the people with good scores were successful and some weren't, but ALL of the people with bad scores were not successful. We just don't see those whether the bad scores performed well because they weren't hired.

I'll note that my process doesn't give numeric scores, I give only written feedback with a hire / pass decision, which is discussed by a committee.

Re: not being able to pass our own hiring process - I've felt the same at my company, but isn't that a good thing? That means I'm doing my part to hire people even better than me, which is good for my team and the company. I'm raising the bar. A Players hire A Players.
by mpalmer | 2025-11-04 23:17:49+00:00
I co-sign this as a similarly-credentialed person. I use windsurf at work and recently started enjoying Claude Code, but the UX of Windsurf is actually a legit value add. Codemaps especially - been using them for weeks and they're excellent. Ask me again in a year maybe; churn in code could make maintaining codemaps annoying, but even that seems solvable.
by skopje | 2025-11-04 23:18:38+00:00
"To them, it’s way too convenient to be on AWS: not only it solves their problem, but it’s also a shiny object. It’s technically complex, it makes them look smart in front of other devs, "

why? why be so obnoxious to other people who you claim are being obnoxious to you. no need to read your blog post now/
by free_bip | 2025-11-04 23:18:54+00:00
I'm not a copyright attorney in any country, so the answer (assuming you're asking me personally) is "I don't know and it probably depends heavily on the specific facts of the case."

If you're asking for my personal opinion, I can weigh in on my personal take for some fair use factors.

- Research into generative art models (the kind which is done by e.g. OpenAI, Stable Diffusion) is only possible due to funding. That funding mainly comes from VC firms who are looking to get ROI by replacing artists with AI[0], and then debt financing from major banks on top of that. This drives both the market effect factor and the purpose/character of use factor, and not in their favor. If the research has limited market impact and is not done for the express purpose of replacing artists, then I think it would likely be fair use (an example could be background removal/replacement).

- I don't know if there are any legal implications of a large vs. small corporation using a product of copyright infringement to produce profit. Maybe it violates some other law, maybe it doesn't. All I know is that the end product of a GenAI model is not copyrightable, which to my understanding means their profit potential is limited as literally anyone else can use it for free.

[0]: https://harlem.capital/generative-ai-the-vc-landscape/
by PaulKeeble | 2025-11-04 23:19:43+00:00
In this case its more its a 100+ billion investment to possibly produce a competing fab and its encumbered with many thousands if not more patents the likes of which will produce a minefield for any entrant. So far the silicon product market has just shrunk over the years with more and more failing to keep up with the latest process technology as the price of entrance and the patent warheads has risen.
by acdha | 2025-11-04 23:19:51+00:00
WebP produced good file size reductions because they recompressed JPEGs and ignored the loss in detail. I benchmarked it the day it launched and it was never once competitive enough to be worth the cost of using it. If browsers had supported JPEG-2000 in the 2000s, it’d have stomped WebP on every benchmark – even a tuned JPEG encoder did surprisingly well given the age of that format.

HEIC, AVIF, JXL, etc. are worth the trouble.
by Levitz | 2025-11-04 23:20:08+00:00
>If your friends are in the right-wing sphere (e.g. Joe Rogan listeners, etc), then yeah, likely.

I reckon there's more of a correlation between this type of statement and being a Bluesky user than being right-wing and using X.

I mean X userbase is enormous compared to that of Bluesky, you can't be serious.
by jltsiren | 2025-11-04 23:20:11+00:00
You are using "free market" as a political term. In that sense, it refers to little more than to the absence of unnecessary regulations.

Economics is more concerned about whether "free market" is a useful description of the system. If there is nothing in principle to prevent the emergence of new competition, but barriers to entry (e.g. availability of capital / talent / machinery / raw materials, long-term contracts, or the time required to set up a new business) make it difficult in practice, the system may not behave like a market. Then you need to focus more on politics, both between and within governments and companies, to understand how the system is actually working.
by tpmoney | 2025-11-04 23:21:05+00:00
The fair use test (in US copyright law) is a 4 part test under which impact on the market for the original work is one of 4 parts. Notably, just because a use has massively detrimental harms to a work's market does not in and of itself constitute a copyright violation. And it couldn't be any other way. Imagine if you could be sued for copyright infringement for using a work to criticize that work or the author of that work if the author could prove that your criticism hurt their sales. Imagine if you could be sued for copyright infringement because you wrote a better song or book on the same themes as a previous creator after seeing their work and deciding you could do it better.

Perhaps famously, emulators very clearly and objectively impact the market for a game consoles and computers and yet they are also considered fair use under US copyright law.

No one part of the 4 part test is more important than the others. And so far in the US, training and using an LLM has been ruled by the courts to be fair use so long as the materials used in the training were obtained legally.
by Terr_ | 2025-11-04 23:21:13+00:00
> If it makes you angry that people want to work to build AGI

What's this, a second straw-man? So quickly after the first?

TFA never condemned invention or hard work, nor does it agree with the "doomers" who consider the target-invention to be fundamentally bad. At most it's a critique of a set of beliefs/rationalizations plus choices made by investors.

> makes you angry [...] people who have thought about it a lot more than you [...] repeatedly yelling [...] "you're a fool!"

Who's angry? Who's making it personal?

I think reading the article made you angry... and you're projecting it onto everybody else.
by Atlas667 | 2025-11-04 23:21:43+00:00
Not really. Squid games is loosely based on for-profit concentration camps run by US backed dictators in South Korea. The true story is actually worse than the fictional show.

All US colonies have had terrible dictatorships, the news of which purposefully does not reach the western core. Saying "they've moved on" is ignoring what actually happened, and I'm not bringing this up in a "lets focus on the past" sort of way, but on how it actually got there.

Is a murderous dictatorship that forcefully bashes the economy into the shape it wants the same as "getting over it"?

And blaming how North Korea is on one guy is a cop out. And, like I said, I'm not even defending the guy, but you can't simplify history too much either, else it starts to look like cartoons. There are 4 other guys who lead North Korea, Kim Jong Un just has a family legacy involved in its founding and is the general secretary of state, the real President, coincidentally, died yesterday, Nov 3th.
by NumberCruncher | 2025-11-04 23:21:52+00:00
Why not fighting fire with fire and using AI to:

Version A: find 100 LOC which can be reduced to 50 LOC without changing the functionality. Then ask the author to go through the PR making sure it's not bloated. Repeat.

Version B: find hidden bugs. Ask the author to fix them. Repeat.

Keep them occupied saving your face. I would also fine tune an own agent to automatise this kind of work for me.
by theturtletalks | 2025-11-04 23:21:56+00:00
This is why the code is completely open-source, to keep us honest. All we use is a config file to keep track of stores. You can also bring your own key if you think our LLM is bias or going to give preference to certain stores. Check out our Ethos [0], it covers things in great detail.

0. https://marketplace.openship.org/ethos
by nostrademons | 2025-11-04 23:22:38+00:00
Over a long enough time horizon, yeah. Over a long enough time horizon the same happens in land too - we are finally getting decent amounts of infill development in the Bay Area, but it's 15 years after prices started to skyrocket.

Starting a semiconductor company and constructing a few fabs at cutting-edge process nodes takes at least that amount of time, so I'd expect semiconductors to have similar dynamics.
by ndriscoll | 2025-11-04 23:22:45+00:00
I tried searching, and his words seem to be the opposite of what you've said:

https://www.jeffgeerling.com/blog/2006/wives-submit-your-hus...

> Is he telling us that wives should do what they're told and that husbands can lord it over their wives? On the contrary! He speaks here about a special kind of love (married love) in which there is mutual subjection, meaning that both the husband and the wife should treat each other as equals

https://www.jeffgeerling.com/blog/2009/catholic-action-netwo...

> Is discrimination and hatred against homosexuals wrong? Of course—these people are human beings with the gift of God's love, just like you and me! However, endorsing their lifestyle is something the Church will never be able to do, for their actions (which can be judged) are opposed to the Church's fundamental teachings about human sexuality and complementarity.

Where exactly is he saying to hate gay people and that women are owned by their husbands? Were those the posts you were referencing?

Note that elsewhere he also says that natural family planning is not endorsed by the church if done for frivolous reasons:

https://www.jeffgeerling.com/articles/religion/nfp-and-contr...

> The Church allows the use of Natural Family Planning for couples wishing to space out births, but only for serious reasons. A precondition to a couple using NFP is that they act not out of a selfish desire (i.e. the couple wants to have a lot of fun together, and a child would 'put a damper' on their fun), but "in conformity with the generosity appropriate to responsible parenthood" [CCC 2368]

So married hetero couples who don't even use any form of contraception, but abstain during certain times of the month because they don't want kids for lifestyle reasons are apparently opposed to the church's teachings too. Presumably he doesn't hate such people.

So is there something more hateful here? I'm seeing 15-20 year old blog posts with a few paragraphs explaining what the Catholic position on this stuff is in an almost neutral/academic tone. Where's the neo-nazi religious nut stuff?
by shermantanktop | 2025-11-04 23:22:51+00:00
The skill ladder for humans assumes CEO functions require higher and better skills than a vending machine manager. But there's no reason to assume that AI capabilities map to those jobs in the same way.

It's quite possible that an AI would do a better job at CEO than running a vending machine.

And it's quite possible that successful CEOs would not succeed at managing a vending machine. It's almost guaranteed that many will fail, given that some C-level people are selected for risk appetite and social skills over actual business acumen.
by halJordan | 2025-11-04 23:23:33+00:00
Certainly we need to "right-size" our outrage. But especially with the tattoo artist side, it skews into a sort of weird nimby-ism, where tattoo artists have claimed some mantle where the ip of a Nintendo which spent multiple salaries over six months perfecting a pokemon is totally worthless and trash, while the ip of some dime-a-dozen flash art someone banged out over a weekend is invaluable.
by sshine | 2025-11-04 23:24:09+00:00
Or just: stop

That’s not really what I’m saying.

Large brand copyright holders gonna sue. It is part of their core business.

If you’re a musician, you gotta tour to make money. If you’re a painter, you need patrons.

There already were a ton of ways organised IP theft would make money on your creative force.

AI training seems different because it can gobble up anything out of order and somehow digest it into something valuable without human intervention.

The training is absurdly expensive, but considering how they capture the profit on the value created, and the training input owners won’t, will just mark the end of the open internet for non-FOSS normies.
by theturtletalks | 2025-11-04 23:24:36+00:00
Yes the marketplace supports our e-commerce platform, Openfront, for now but is built with adapters so any platform can be connected.

We felt AI was the perfect glue between different types of stores and could navigate them using intelligence. An example of this is being able to paste in your address in chat and AI will figure out which is the country, state, etc. Different stores handle addresses differently.
by chubot | 2025-11-04 23:24:54+00:00
Yeah totally, not a single mention of Kurzweil in this article. I also read “Age of spiritual machines” in 1999 (in college), and skimmed most of his subsequent books

Then Kurzweil became my manager’s peer at Google in 2014 or so (actually 2 managers). I remember he was mocked by a few coworkers (and maybe deservedly so, because they had some mildly funny stories)

So I have been wondering with all the AGI talk why Kurzweil isn’t talked about more. Was he vindicated in some sense?

I did get a partial answer - one reason is that doomer AGI prophecies are better marketing than Kurzweil’s brand of AGI, which is about merging with machines

And of course both kinds of AGI prophecies are good distractions from AI ethics, which is more likely to slow investment than to grow it
by baby_souffle | 2025-11-04 23:24:58+00:00
> Are they good options for cloud-freeish thermostats?

There are connected thermostats that do not feature a WiFi radio. I don't like zwave (I would really prefer WiFi with a HTTP or MQTT interface) but there is no thermostat that a) has a modern/working WiFi radio and b) a documented API.

Venstar is the only company that makes WiFi with an API but they seem to use the cheapest possible WiFi radios and I could never get mine to stay connected to my network for more than an hour or two. They also had a _really unusual_ firmware architecture: it was linux with a stripped down web browser; the UI was a SPA and it used some lua or js (don't recall, sorry) to communicate to the hardware driving GPIOs. They did expect firmware updates to be signed and that's where I stopped looking and moved on to a zwave thermostat.
Show HN: An ETL engine with hard memory guarantees
by logannyeMD | 2025-11-04 23:25:17+00:00
This is an external-memory ETL engine that enforces hard memory bounds (as opposed to systems that can only try to stay within limits). It's the result of playing around with a recent idea from complexity theory, tinkering to find practical applications of where efficient time-space simulation could be useful.

It enforces a strict memory cap via RAII tracking and scheduling, so you can process arbitrarily large datasets with a fixed, small memory footprint. Operators automatically spill to disk when needed. Might be helpful for serverless and edge environments where you need predictable resource usage.
by eminwux | 2025-11-04 23:25:35+00:00
Thanks a lot for the thoughtful comment, I really appreciate it.

You are absolutely right that screen and tmux use separate PTYs for sessions, and they are both extremely powerful. I actually use screen myself and it was one of the main inspirations for sbsh.

The main difference is that sbsh provides manifests to define terminal sessions declaratively. A manifest can include commands, environment variables, prompts, and lifecycle hooks such as onInit and postAttach. This makes it easy to reproduce and share terminal configurations, for example to run the same process locally or inside a CI/CD pipeline without manual setup.

Unlike screen, sbsh includes session discovery and metadata. It keeps a metadata directory that stores detailed information about all running terminals and supervisors, including their profiles and states. This allows you to query or reattach programmatically through the API.

Regarding configuration management, I agree that Ansible is great for provisioning and automation, but my goal with sbsh was different. I wanted a lightweight tool to set up working environments for Terraform, Kubernetes, Python venvs, and similar workflows.

For large Terraform projects with many environment variables, keeping local runs consistent can be difficult. sbsh profiles help with that by defining everything once and setting up a clear prompt to avoid running commands in the wrong environment. The same applies to Kubernetes clusters with multiple environments and namespaces.

You can also share these manifests with teammates so that when they start a terminal session, the environment is configured exactly the same way, with the right variables, cluster context, and visual prompt. This ensures consistency and prevents human error across local and CI/CD environments.

In short, sbsh focuses on developer session reproducibility rather than system configuration. It fills the gap between shell setup, automation, and environment safety.

Thanks again for the feedback. I completely agree that adopting new tools is always a challenge, but I built this to solve my own workflow pain, and it has made a big difference for me.
by tracker1 | 2025-11-04 23:25:47+00:00
It's entirely possible... In fact, I'm pretty sure that there are more than a few very wealthy people willing to place bets on that very thing... maybe not everything, but upwards of 1-3% of their wealth.

Now, actually getting in a room and talking to those people and getting in on the execution of that idea... that's a different story.