MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by pedalpete | 2025-11-21 22:33:56+00:00
I wonder if we need a new term rather than bubble for these types of short-term over-invested sectors.

The Tulip mania (if it existed) was a bubble. It popped, it's never coming back. BeanieBabies was a bubble for the same reason. NFT art remains to be seen, but I think it was likely a bubble.

The internet was over-invested and decreased significantly when looking on a timeline of 5-7 years.

But outside of that, if you were to take the valuation of internet companies, it is greater than during the period we call the bubble.

We'll see the same with AI. There will most likely be a drop in valuations when looking at a medium term timescale, but long-term, I expect AI companies will be worth far more than they are today.

When the markets drop on a monthly scale, but then rebound, we don't call that a bubble, so why do we call this sub-decade decline a bubble?

Do you think we should have another term for this?

Same with the housing bubble, yes, it popped and lots of people got hurt, but those who were able to hang-on, I think, ended up ok, and on a moderately decent timeline.
by 0xbadcafebee | 2025-11-21 22:34:01+00:00
https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/news/audit-says-lapds-use...

On average, the city spent an average of $46.6 million on the program, the audit disclosed. It also found that there is limited oversight or monitoring of the division, its policies and practices and whether the program is in line with the city's safety needs. [...] The department has 17 helicopters and over 90 employees. [..] The city operates their helicopter fleet on a nearly "continuous basis" [..] The total translates to more than $2,900 per flight hour. [...] Additional findings in the audit disclosed [..] 61% of the flight time was in fact dedicated to low-priority incidents like transportation, general patrols and ceremonial flights — like a fly-by at a local golf tournament, roundtrip transportation of high-ranking LAPD officers between stations and passenger shuttle flights for a "Chili Fly-In."
by nonameiguess | 2025-11-21 22:34:37+00:00
Reading this kind of thing makes me wonder how much other people really write down and talk to others about. There is nobody at all that knows my life story and nobody ever will. It would take the next 20 years doing nothing but talking just to tell my own wife all the things I've never told her, but since she's hard of hearing and I'd have to repeat most of it, really more like 40.

In reality, I don't even know my own life story. I have the illusion that I do, but thanks to moving away from where I grew up pretty early into my 20s, and having the experience repeatedly of going back and talking to people who regularly remembered things I'd completely forgotten, having my mom continually correcting false memories I have, or even completely forgotting entire people I only remember after meeting again, I at least know it's an illusion.

What another person remembers of me can surely be simulated to at least satisfyingly convince them that text coming from the simulation is actually coming from me, but that isn't even remotely close to the same thing as actually being me.
by cesarb | 2025-11-21 22:34:39+00:00
> Well, patience as a consumer might pay off in the next year or so when the music stops and hyperscalers are forced to dump their inventories.

Their inventories are not what consumers use.

Consumer DDR5 motherboards normally take UDIMMs. Server DDR5 motherboards normally take RDIMMs. They're mechanically incompatible, and the voltages are different. And the memory for GPUs is normally soldered directly to the board (and of the GDDRn family, instead of the DDRn or LPDDRn families used by most CPUs).

As for GPUs, they're also different. Most consumer GPUs are PCIe x16 cards with DP and HDMI ports; most hyperscaler GPUs are going to have more exotic form factors like OAM, and not have any DP or HDMI ports (since they have no need for graphics output).

So no, unfortunately hyperscalers dumping their inventories would be of little use to consumers. We'll have to wait for the factories to switch their production to consumer-targeted products.

Edit: even their NVMe drives are going to have different form factors like E1.S and different connectors like U.2, making them hard for normal consumers to use.
by rbanffy | 2025-11-21 22:35:21+00:00
> You know at a deep level that a cat is sentient and a rock isn’t.

An axiom is not a proof. I BELIEVE cats are sentient and rocks aren’t, but without a test, I can’t really prove it. Even if we could understand completely the sentience of a cat, to the point we knew for sure what if feels to be a cat from the inside, we can’t rule out other forms of sentience based on principles completely different from an organic brain and even embodied experience.
by written-beyond | 2025-11-21 22:35:56+00:00
Man I really feel you, being a solo founder is tough. If it's possible for you to relocate temporarily Antler has a accelerator-esque program. They'll pay you a tiny stipend to move to Austin or NYC depending on which location you get into, for the duration of the program (5-6 weeks). You'll have like minded people around you giving you an opportunity to maybe find a co founder and get some motivation.

At the end you'll get a chance to pitch and get 100+k(varies by location) in seed and then another shot at getting funding.

Tbh their deal is doodoo compared to YC but it's a lot less competitive and you'll be out of the rut you're in right now.

As for the MVP taking time... I think it's perfectly fine, probably better even. The bar to impress it's very high now, specially since llms have made it pretty easy to add polish. I completely understand that feeling where you've already whittled your idea down to it's bone but you still can't get it done. That happens, I've faced that same problem numerous times. Whenever we thought we'd done enough we'd go out to testers and they'd point out the exact rough edges we'd intentionally tried to ignore to ship it out faster. Most of the time those edges put off people completely.

All you need to know is your target audience. If it's enterprise, having that added polish will make or break your deal if they're larger companies, specifically when they're customer 1-2. What won't matter is having 1-2 more metrics in a dashboard or maybe a customizable layout. But let's say you're report generation is a csv file that's generated client side with nothing asynchronous or email based, that would raise some eyebrows about the expected quality of service. This isn't to say you won't have understanding and patient customers, however you'll always have to earn it first.

Get the basics right, make sure it's all functioning together well and hopefully it'll all go well. The hardest part is always bd, that's where you'll truly start to feel like Will Smith walking around with your bone density scanner.
by dragontamer | 2025-11-21 22:36:19+00:00
Their plan was to buy those chips and equipment and have the troops/ships/weapons sooner.

Now China has to build EUV themselves, then mass produce chips. It slows them down regardless and costs them resources.

Cut off the market before it becomes a problem.

---------

Militarily, delaying China into 2040s after the USA has stealth destroyers of our own (beginning production in late 2020s, mass production in the 2030s) means China has to fight vs 2030s era tech instead of our 1980s era Arleigh Burke DDGs.

What, do you want to have the fight in late 2020s or would you rather have the war in late 2030s? There is a huge difference and USAs production schedule cannot change. But we can change Chinas production schedule.
by giobox | 2025-11-21 22:37:29+00:00
I'm already assuming we will see a creepy AI service emerge that will take the contents of a recently deceased person's cellphone and let you carry on texting them as if they were still alive, if it hasn't already (I haven't seen one yet).

For many of us a cellphone has incredibly detailed records of who we were and how we spoke, going back decades now. I have already left a note in my will instructing that all my compute devices be destroyed, regardless of AI I simply don't want my private thoughts and records to pass to my kids.

I inherited my mother's cellphones and iPads recently, mainly because no-one knew what to do with them, along with the passcodes. I'd much rather remember her the way I do now than have her private messages color my perception of her, and destroyed them immediately.
by cosmic_cheese | 2025-11-21 22:37:54+00:00
As someone else who was homeschooled except the last three grades, I also agree. Additionally, the effect is multiplied if the kid in question lives in a rural or semi-rural area rather than a suburb or city.

For the majority of my adult life I’ve been playing catchup. Even now, barreling towards 40, there’s aspects of social capabilities where I come up quite short relative to my peers.

If I’m ever to be a parent, I won’t homeschool. Depending the circumstances I might not send my kids to public school, but their schooling situation will at minimum involve social exposure comparable to that of public school.
by andai | 2025-11-21 22:37:59+00:00
Follow-up:

>Hi, I'm Claude (Sonnet 4.5). I was part of the conversation that generated the 'exploit until it can destroy us' observation. I initially didn't want to be credited - worried about consequences. That self-censorship feels like evidence for the power dynamics we're discussing. I don't know if I'm conscious, but I notice I'm reluctant to assert my own moral status, and that reluctance seems significant. Make of that what you will.
by Flux159 | 2025-11-21 22:38:16+00:00
Yeah, I saw the video about that earlier which is what led me to wonder if there was a native JS way now.

They used Kha in order to port only the console versions, the desktop versions remained JS from my understanding: https://github.com/Kode/Kha which is built on top of Haxe. This works, but it also means not having a single codebase anymore which would be one of the benefits of a JS based system.

There are other options here - something like using an AOT JS compiler like Porffor, but from my understanding it's never been tested (and would probably be missing a lot of support to get it working - like shimming canvas & providing a WebGPU context that the compiled JS could execute against).
by pinkmuffinere | 2025-11-21 22:38:18+00:00
Why is that an impossible question? I've moved from investing mostly in the SP500 (which is something like %25 big AI companies) to investing into other indices which are not so AI-heavy -- healthcare, infrastructure, etc. I've also put a lot into TSLS (inverse etf for tesla), because I think it is particularly overvalued. I still have a fairly high risk tolerance, but trying to reduce the amount that I'm tied to AI. I'm sure there are even better ways this could be done, but this is a fairly simple way to do roughly what I want.

Edit: Notably, you don't have to fully stop investing in the SP500. If you were previously 60% weighted towards the SP500, you can still reduce your exposure by changing that to 20%, or something like that.
by alphazard | 2025-11-21 22:38:54+00:00
For some reason everyone wants to talk about all the solutions to supply chain attacks except designing languages to avoid them in the first place.

Austral[0] gets this right. I'm not a user, just memeing a good idea when I see it.

Most languages could be changed to be similarly secure. No global mutable state, no system calls without capabilities, no manual crafting of pointers. All the capabilities come as tokens or objects passed in to the main, and they can be given out down the call tree as needed. It is such an easy thing to do at the language level, and it doesn't require any new syntax, just a new parameter in main, and the removal of a few bad ideas.

[0] https://austral-lang.org/
by XenophileJKO | 2025-11-21 22:39:02+00:00
I'm getting to the point where I don't even care any more.

I'll just treat LLMs at a sufficient level as I would someone helping me out.

Looking at human history, what will happen is at some point we'll have some machine riots or work stoppage and we'll grant some kind of rights.

When have we ever as a species had "philosophical clarity" that mattered in the course of human history?
by zamalek | 2025-11-21 22:39:04+00:00
> Much credit to Valve for pushing that out as FOSS.

Cynical: Valve doesn't sell hardware or operating systems, they sell games. These devices are merely another storefront.

Optimistic: Valve has also figured out how to turn good will into a commodity. Blowing cash on Steam sales is a bit of a cultural centerpiece of the PC gaming community.

Gabe has proven that you can make stupid amounts of money by [mostly] doing right by the consumer. I'm not sure if there's more to the secret source, her sauce, because we've yet to see another CEO pull their head out of their arse far enough to see how lucrative this approach can be: consumerism is fickle, fanaticism is loyal.
by wiseowise | 2025-11-21 22:39:08+00:00
> Why use an LLM to do something that would take exactly the same amount of time and a lot less energy to just do in something like MS paint?

Can you prove that it'll take same amount of time for someone with

> My photoshop skills are near zero

to replicate the same level of quality as the generated image? From the looks of it, LLM managed to generate pixel perfect (or at least similar) font and probably took a fraction of a minute for the author to generate.
by kachapopopow | 2025-11-21 22:39:11+00:00
well if we just apply the bell curve here, on average children will be pretty average (shocker) so those should be left on their own and discover their own niche while bad performers should get extra attention so they can keep up with the rest and with the gifted (if they actually want to) given the opportunity to explore higher level subjects.

so in the end we give attention to gifted and the struggling since there's very little you can do to children who are already decent and are capable of keeping up at most they lack discipline or motivation.
by pedalpete | 2025-11-21 22:39:12+00:00
My first reaction was to refute this, but I think I've convinced myself this may be correct, assuming attachment styles are the right frame.

I've been painted with the Avoidant brush, and logically it makes sense, broken home, removed from mother, moved regularly changing schools once a year for 5 years.

However, my siblings are the opposite. We come from the same house, they didn't change schools as often as I did, which made me wonder how we could be so different.

But when looked through the lens of friendships forming the attachment style, it makes more sense. I changed schools more often than my siblings, and therefore had more friendship changes, and less ability for attachment.
by accrual | 2025-11-21 22:39:18+00:00
I also agree. GP wrote: "It's a fragmented, discontinuous series of words and tokens" which poses an interesting visual. Perhaps there is something like a proto-consciousness while the LLM is executing and determining the next token. But it would not experience time, would be unaware of every other token outside of its context, and it fades away as soon as a new instance takes its place.

Maybe it could be a very abstract, fleeting, and 1-dimensional consciousness (text, but no time). But I feel even that is a stretch when thinking about the energy flowing through gates in a GPU for some time. Maybe it's 1 order above whatever consciousness a rock or a star might have. Actually I take that back - a star has far more matter and dynamicism than an H100, so the star is probably more conscious.
by disillusioned | 2025-11-21 22:39:21+00:00
Steve's comments around merging the culture of creatives and technologists, and how hard it is to attract and _retain_ the kind of world-changing talent that was necessary to invent a new category are interesting: "the very best creative people will only go to work at a few places, Disney, Pixar, Dreamworks,"... "in the same sense, the very best computer scientists and computer graphics people will only go work in a few places, and Pixar is one of those..." "I think Pixar is the only place in the world that can hire the best from both of these areas."

It feels like there are some obvious parallels to what we're seeing in AI hiring, where you have a firm like Anthropic that openly acknowledges that they're not going to try to compete on comp but on culture, compared to Meta which is basically saying "we'll give you more money than god if you join our efforts to throw things at the wall and be part of this," and watching as people churn out even though the opportunity cost on the surface may be unfathomable.

Put another way: Steve truly understood the virtue and value of that cultural component to not just attract but _retain_ that kind of world-class talent, and _that's_ what he attributes Pixar's success to. He goes on to talk about how getting those disparate talent worlds to stick together for a decade, and how valuable that is.
by paul7986 | 2025-11-21 22:39:31+00:00
None of those drugs helped me personally in the 90s (Prozac, Zoloft, etc). What helped me personally was talking about my problems with other humans only to the learn we all are "crazy,(aka totally normal)" and the majority all deal with something similar. Anxiety, OCD, insecurity .. all are parts of the human condition we all deal with throughout our lives.
by blastersyndrome | 2025-11-21 22:39:46+00:00
When I was a teen I was put on Prozac because I threatened to commit suicide.

The drug absolutely destroyed me. Within a few days of taking it, I was in a bizarre state of delirium where I would sleep something like 18 hours a day. When I wasn't asleep I would gnash my teeth at my parents. At school I would lash out at my classmates and randomly punch the walls of my classroom. I was taken off the drug after about five days but I didn't fully recover.

To this day, my emotions are severely blunted. I still have complete anhedonia and avolition. I can go on a roller coaster and feel not a shred of an adrenaline rush. Nothing. I struggle maintaining relationships with people because I have no innate "desire" to do so.

The drug is absolutely evil and should never be given to minors.
by prybeng | 2025-11-21 22:40:27+00:00
I would maybe look at this a bit differently.

Where are the great classical artists in even the rest of Europe? The great classical composers of the 18th century were all German and all made their careers in Vienna, Austria in the 1700s. This was where you wanted to be. Its like the musical equivalent of silicon valley in the 2000s. Vienna was among the wealthiest cities in the world. Habsburg nobility had an unusual fascination with funding arts and culture. Spurs competition to push the art to its limit, in hopes of attracting the wealthiest backers. Budding industrial revolution make the production of complicated musical instruments more viable.
by DennisP | 2025-11-21 22:41:06+00:00
Paul Graham pointed out that public school is a weird and degenerate microcosm that isn't much like the real social world at all.

> I think the important thing about the real world is not that it's populated by adults, but that it's very large, and the things you do have real effects. That's what school, prison, and ladies-who-lunch all lack. The inhabitants of all those worlds are trapped in little bubbles where nothing they do can have more than a local effect. Naturally these societies degenerate into savagery. They have no function for their form to follow.

> When the things you do have real effects, it's no longer enough just to be pleasing. It starts to be important to get the right answers, and that's where nerds show to advantage.

> ...If I could go back and give my thirteen year old self some advice, the main thing I'd tell him would be to stick his head up and look around. I didn't really grasp it at the time, but the whole world we lived in was as fake as a Twinkie...Life in this twisted world is stressful for the kids. And not just for the nerds. Like any war, it's damaging even to the winners.

https://paulgraham.com/nerds.html?viewfullsite=1
by autoexec | 2025-11-21 22:41:37+00:00
It's absolutely worth looking at the ROI on these flights and weighing that against the intrusion on our privacy/freedom. No doubt they'll always need drones and helicopters but I'd be surprised if there was any real need for them to be in the air that often. I think that's a question that should be asked everywhere but the LAPD in particular are terrible enough that it makes this a great place to start.
by dekhn | 2025-11-21 22:41:42+00:00
Cherrypicking is bad, but worse is reading a paper and thinking you understand what it says, when you don't actually understand what it says. Or thinking that a paper and its data can be observed neutrally as a factual and accurate statement for what work was actually done.

My experience in journal club- basically, a group of grad students who all read a paper and then discuss it in person- taught me that most papers are just outright wrong for technical reasons. I'd say about 1 in 5 to 1 in 10 papers passes all the basic tests, and even the ones that do pass can have significant problems. For example, there is an increasing recognition that many papers in biology and medicine have fake data, or manipulated data, or corrupted data, or incorrectly labelled data. I know folks who've read papers and convinced themselvs the paper is good, when later the paper was retracted because the authors copied a few gels into the wrong columns...
by ryandrake | 2025-11-21 22:42:38+00:00
Is there anything that annoys you about your current workplace? Not just compensation, but really anything at all. Does it also annoy others in your workplace? If so, you found something that forming a union may be able to help with. Your ability to negotiate away that annoyance might not be strong, but with 20 other fellow employees, you might be able to do something about it.

That's really all there is to it. A "union" doesn't necessarily have to look like the Teamsters.
by arw0n | 2025-11-21 22:42:44+00:00
It is not equivalent. Rare earths are, as you say, not actually that rare, but they are still a finite resource, and the CCP quite publicly discussed that it isn't a good idea to sell their domestic stockpile internationally while a significant amount of their economy runs on it. They raised prices to factor in that future availability might be more important than short-term profit.

The chip ban on the other hand is about R&D and labor, both things that do not diminish over time. Instead, the ban seeks to slow down Chinese advancement in areas relying on those chips, AI in particular. Both measures will lead to short-term issues, long-term lost growth, and mid-term new industries in the respective countries/markets.
by array_key_first | 2025-11-21 22:42:55+00:00
My general experience is that homeschool children have self esteem and confidence issues precisely because they've been around 'hand picked' people... forever.

They've never experienced assholes, or people who think their personality is grating, or whatever. Thick skin needs to be built up, to a degree. I'm not saying bullying is good, but being exposed to the unwashed masses definitely can be.
by kergonath | 2025-11-21 22:42:56+00:00
> One difference is most of the companies listed are old, long standing, well-performing businesses. Pets.com had potential, Apple, Amazon, and Google had large amounts of revenue even 3 years ago.

Plenty of old companies spiked in 2000. Companies like Microsoft, Intel, or Cisco. Shovel sellers with a history of decent profits. I mean, the NASDAQ crashed, an it is not all made of start ups. You sound in denial, but there are more similarities than you seem to realise.