by ViewTrick1002 | 2025-11-25 06:55:04+00:00
The GenCost predictions are excluded already comitted projects.

> EEG is not a backwards system or something of the past. It's still in place and it's projected to grow despite most expensive 20y contracts being gone https://www.ewi.uni-koeln.de/en/news/medium-term-forecast-ar...

Trying to predict the future based on it is a backwards looking metric. Your link says that it may increase to €23B by 2029. While the EEG in 2020 was €38B in 2025 euros.

It is already rapidly falling as expensive old contracts fall out.

> Offshore in Germany is already facing challenges like in UK and DK.

Love trying to change the topic to off-shore wind. Pretend that onshore and solar faces the same challenges.

Off-shore wind is right on the cusp of viability. With low infrastructure costs and a comitted customer it is. The Danish and German auctions were "negative bid" styles. The developers had to pay for the privilege to build off-shore wind.

The UK capped the CFD too low as per recent increases in interest rates and material costs. An issue which nuclear power is affected by to an even larger degree.

> It'll be gradually the same with onshore and even some solar.

Of course ignoring that 500 GW storge interconnection queue. But that would be daring to lift your eyes.

> Nuclear has advantages beyond CF, like firm generation, less system costs. Even Fraunhofer/bnetza understand this, that's why both are pushing to expand gas to firm renewables(because well, nuclear is out of discussion for em)

I love this magical nuclear plant that soaks up an entire grid load. In reality all grids with nuclear power has tons of peaking since trying to go above the baseload with nuclear power just becomes stupidity.

That was before zero marginal cost renewables entered the picture. Now nuclear itself are becoming peakers. As evidenced by nuclear power all over Europe being forced out of the markets or having to bid negative.

> French national debt is 3.5 TRILLION, most because of social system. EDF debt is 50bn while debt/ebitda ratio is about 2 (while EON/RWE have a worse ratio) To suggest EDF debt has any meaningful impact here is borderline insane.

I love how adding ~€100-200B from nuclear handouts to build the EDF2 fleet is "trivial. A 2.5 - 5% increase in the already extremely bloated French debt is insignificant! Move along!

> Arenh was mandated by EU so that EDF doesn't erase competition.

Because the entire French fleet was built with state aid. But that you conveniently ignore.

> Mind you, Germany already spent on EEG alone almost 2x the cost of entire french nuclear fleet (looking at public numbers from court/DE) but it still has worse emissions. In a similar timeframe (messmer) france almost finished the job.

Again looking backwards. You know we live in 2025? What you're telling me is that 2012 solar was expensive and thus required large EEG. Do you understand that we're not building 2012 solar, we're buiding 2025 solar.

Also love the victim complex.

> On the other hand, both the praised California and South Australia, leaders in ren deployment, do have both worse emissions than France and higher household prices

They're not done yet? Are they claiming to be done?

> It's indeed funny to me how people are so concerned about the costs of nuclear but are just fine with full system costs of renewables that strangely, are not that cheap as predicted by orgs like aemo/csiro in Australia and even more so in other markets.

Because these "full system costs" have never been shown to materialize? They are fossil shill and nuclear bro talking points because they can't deal with reality.

We need to 1.5x - 3x our grids to decarbonize society and industry. The extra costs coming from a renewable grid when already having double or triple the grid size are trivial.

Just like you nuclear bros never talk about nuclear unreliability. It is apparently 100% reliable except when it isn't. And then it also needs fossil gas peakers to manage the peak load because load following nuclear power simply becomes stupid.

You also have the issue of trying to force it on the population. Why should a home owner with rooftop solar and a home battery draw electricity from the grid?

Explain to me how you would deploy a nuclear plant in this grid:

https://explore.openelectricity.org.au/energy/sa1/?range=7d&...