by miningape | 2025-10-13 16:24:46+00:00
I think you've made a few common misconceptions about China and hopefully you'll let me clarify my argument by addressing them. But you are also right they are seeing a collapse in the birth-rates due to modernisation, the difference is that the Chinese economy is geared towards production, and not services - which is far less able to withstand population collapse (meaning these problems compound much more). So comparing them directly to the way western economies are trending is not always helpful. And it can be equally valid to compare their issues (cultural, political, economic) to other countries such as Japan, Korea, and the Phillipines (particularly for the male:female ratio issue).

> Becoming even richer won't help things at all.

There's 2 reasons this isn't the case:

1. The trend you're describing is more of a function of education levels, not wealth. Educations levels have an impact in 2 ways, making people aware there are other options (career, travel, wealth) and by making them aware of when they cannot afford children. Meaning an increase in wealth will increase the ability to afford children.

2. And you're assuming the average Chinese citizen earns as much (in PPP terms) as a western citizen. They don't (except in terms of manufactured goods) - it regularly requires multiple family members (parents, uncles/auths & grandparents) to contribute towards a property, and food is comparatively expensive. At least in the west this is still somewhat doable as a nuclear family. Meaning an increase in wealth (better distribution of the economy) will result in the ability to feed and house more children.

> China's birthrate has fallen like it has in other richer countries

You've missed the part where they implemented a multi-decade one-child policy. The dominoes are already set up for the largest population collapse we have ever seen in the next few decades.

> Freedom has little to do with the birthrate

I wasn't clear, sorry, this is the most complicated link in the chain - I mean economic, cultural, and political freedoms. Currently the Chinese are suffocating under all 3.

Economic freedom would increase birthrates by giving people money and time to meet others. 996+ work culture, living in factories, lack of holidays, and living with parents all hinder the baby making process. It would also make it easier for them to transition to a services economy so it's trends can be stabilised / less tied to raw population numbers.

Cultural freedom, culturally Chinese children must support their parents in old age - this has a lot of the younger generation tied up caring for (and funding) multiple people at once. This would include the parents (at a 2:1 ratio due to the 1 child policy) and potentially other members of the family (e.g. grandparents, or those who didn't have children). (Also not to forget the extremely skewed gender ratio which in of itself is a "cultural" problem which should be addressed)

The other cultural freedom issue would be immigration, but it has other issues (as the west is finding out) so lets not touch on that.

Political freedom would mean the freedom to change all the others, which is currently not possible because the government is interested in maintaining the status quo - both culturally (not to cause revolt) and economically (to maintain current production levels, i.e. 996+).

Look up the lying-flat movement, many people's reasoning for doing so lines up with one of these 3 pillars.

> make china poorer and therefore the birthrate would go up

Don't forget, many of the people who will become poor are currently college educated (and already under employed). The only stronger indicator for birthrates other than poverty is the education of women. Educated people know when they're too poor to support a family, and when there are other options to having children. If they get poorer, they're more likely to have less kids, not more.