MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by tptacek | 2025-10-06 17:49:06+00:00
I don't think it really is in the circumstances we contemplate this threat in. In both the search engine case and the ChatGPT case, we're talking about circumstantial evidence (which, to be clear: is real and legally weighty in the US) --- particularly in the CBP setting that keeps coming up here, a Border Agent doesn't need the additional ChatGPT context you're talking about to draw an adverse conclusion!

I think at this point the fulcrum of the point I'm making is that people might be inadvertently lulling themselves into thinking they're revealing meaningfully less about themselves to Google than to ChatGPT. My claim would be that if there's a difference, it's not clear to me it's a material one.
by LogicFailsMe | 2025-10-06 17:49:08+00:00
I describe it as both a bubble and the next industrial revolution. It's not so much inflated as it is far ahead of itself IMO. Kind of like NVDA stock over the past nearly 3 decades.

The talent out there is all focused on a tiny number of tasks and benchmarks in service of the AGI cult whilst the real gain is scattered amongst everything else with no staffing to build it. So I see a bust much like the dotcom bubble in the arbitrary future, but then it corrects surprisingly quickly shortly thereafter and the engineers of that bubble will have gotten out temporarily well ahead of that bust, buying back their assets at 50% or greater discounts and the broader base of retail investors are screwed as usual.

As for impacts on the economy. Meh. They're already starting to ignore the ramblings of the Orange in Chief (the guy shuts down the federal government and the entire stock market yawned last week). The weakly efficient market abides and it's been burned enough times already by the TACO trade. It'll get through this. But oh the whining that will ensue on the corporate media.
by anthomtb | 2025-10-06 17:49:16+00:00
No link to the original research note. No real details on the methodology used. A few notes on the well-known lack of an AI business model (similar things were said about search in the late 90's).

I just don't see how the broader market is exposed to an AI crash in the way it was exposed to subprime loans. If OpenAI goes belly up is it really taking anyone else down with it?
by cosmic_quanta | 2025-10-06 17:49:26+00:00
Delimited continuations have been implemented in the de-facto standard Haskell runtime system, the GHC runtime system [0]. The goal was to make effect systems more performant [1], but I believe that work has stalled due to the maintainer shifting priorities.

[0]: https://github.com/ghc-proposals/ghc-proposals/blob/master/p...

[1]: https://blog.poisson.chat/posts/2023-01-02-del-cont-examples...
by lotharrr | 2025-10-06 17:49:43+00:00
(magic-wormhole author here)

Debian was kind enough to configure their distribution's copy with a distinct hostname for the transit relay helper (the bit that forwards bulk encrypted traffic when both parties are behind NAT). "magic-wormhole-transit.debian.net" is currently a CNAME for "transit.magic-wormhole.io" (which is what the upstream source uses), so all this currently costs them is some DNS maintenance. Both sides exchange transit server hostnames, so they don't need to use the same one, but Debian does this so we could switch Debian-based clients off to a different server if/when my costs of running transit.magic-wormhole.io grow too large.

The "mailbox relay server" for all mutually-communicating clients must be the same. Both upstream and Debian (and most of the other distributions I've seen) use "relay.magic-wormhole.io". The mailbox server helps the clients exchange tiny key-exchange and setup messages, so its costs are trivial.
by jasode | 2025-10-06 17:49:55+00:00
>I heard this a lot from candidates who had only worked on software that could be described as an app.

Similar to that thinking, I made a previous comment how many developers in the "L.O.B. Line-Of-Business / CRUD" group are not familiar with "algorithms engineering" type of programming: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=12078147

Vibe coding is easiest for CRUD apps. However, it's useless for developing new scientific/engineering code for new system architectures that require combining algorithms & data structures in novel ways that Claude Code has no examples for.
by simonh | 2025-10-06 17:50:16+00:00
In the subprime crisis 10 million American families lost their homes and 8.7 million people lost their jobs.

In the case of the collapse of an AI bubble, I don't see as much of a direct relationship to effects on the average Joe. Yes all those billions spent by tech investors will get written off, the companies heavily invested in AI will shed well paid tech jobs in a sector that was craving talent anyway.

I think the biggest effect would be the fact that all that capital was spent on AI tech rather than productive assets and businesses. That's a big opportunity cost, and would hit growth, but I don't see it wiping out ordinary people in the same way. The pain will be heavily concentrated on investors and for everyone else it will just be a slow drag but not a catastrophe.

The real problem is if there are other negative economic effects that compound with it.
by dalke | 2025-10-06 17:50:34+00:00
I was a nomad for about a year. Towards the end I was tired of the constant leaving.

I asked for advice from an NGO who moves countries often. She said what happens is the NGO members become part of the extended connection, which helps with that situation.

Even when I was a nomad, I wouldn't have been without a suitcase. My big hobby then was dancing - mostly salsa and tango - and I needed several changes of clothes and dance shoes. And, umm, not all black clothes.

To make it worse, indoor smoking was legal, so I would come home with stinky clothes that I wouldn't want to wear again until washing.

I also did some upper undergrad/grad level visiting teaching, and would stay at a staff members home, or in one case the home of the parents of one of the grad students. I brought a dozen or so greeting-style cards with nice pictures of the city I used to live in, so I could leave them as a thank you, with an image of what for them would be an exotic place.
by ben_w | 2025-10-06 17:51:03+00:00
> I'm in that boat, everything is just a crud app. I've worked on some fairly complex apps but at their core they were crud apps and most of their complexity were caused by bad developers overcomplicating and fumbling things.

Far too much of my recent work has been CRUD apps, several with wildly and needlessly overengineered plumbing.

But not all apps are CRUD. Simulations, games, and document editors where the sensible file format isn't a database, are also codebases I've worked on.

I think several of those codebases would also be vulnerable to vibe coding*; but this is where I'd focus my attention, as this kind of innovation seems to be the comparative advantage of humans over AI, and also is the space of innovative functions that can be patented.

* but not all; I'm currently converting an old C++ game to vanilla JS and the web, and I have to carefully vet everything the AI does because it tends to make un-performant choices.
by whitehexagon | 2025-10-06 17:51:58+00:00
Or just a mini configured default 128GB or 256GB.

I've been using Qwen3:32b on a 32GB M1 (asahi) and it does most of what I need, albeit a bit slow, but not slow enough that I´d pay monthly for remote ad delivery.

I suspect this huge splurge of hardware spending is partially an attempt to starve the market of cheap RAM and thus limit companies releasing 128GB/256GB standalone LLM boxes.
by fsflover | 2025-10-06 17:52:04+00:00
> I’m not saying it’s not a risk for some but it isn’t mainstream.

This is the point. If only activists and journalists are hiding, it becomes very easy to target them. Everybody should care about privacy to protect them and the democracy with that. It's the same as with the free speech. You need it even if you don't have anything to say.
by atmavatar | 2025-10-06 17:52:04+00:00
We saw (an admittedly razor-thin) majority in the first half of Biden's term and a much more solid majority in the first half of Obama's first term. Clinton also had a solid majority in the first half of his first term, and Carter had a solid majority throughout his entire term.

It may feel skewed in favor of Republican majorities across the executive and legislative branches due to GWB having it for 6 years, but the fact is, every president in the last 30 years has had a majority in both branches at the start of their first terms.
by kstrauser | 2025-10-06 17:53:18+00:00
The biggest jump was from Make -> Just. Just -> Mise was minor in comparison, although enough to persuade me.

Just has a lot of UI/UX improvements over Make, like a way to list available recipes, convenient ways to define command-line parameters to recipes, consistent and easy syntax, and a whole lot of predefined functions and variables to cover common use cases like finding the number of CPUs on the current system, manipulate strings, etc. It doesn't do things that Make can't do, because Make can do anything a shell script can if you don't mind wrestling it into submission. It just does those things much more easily.

But it still has a few warts. Recipes look a lot like a shell script, but they're evaluated separately line-by-line, so you can't set a variable on one line and then read it in another. There are workarounds, but that's the default behavior. And a lot of the time when I'd want a task runner, I also want an environment manager (like uv or cargo or node/npm), so bundling those together matches my workflow better than managing those separately.

I have zero bad to say about Just. It's freaking awesome. If Mise disappeared, I'd go back to using Just. I just prefer Mise right now.
by nekusar | 2025-10-06 17:53:40+00:00
No company is trustworthy.

Even Radio Shack, during their bankruptcy proceedings, argued that users gave their addresses, phone numbers, and names only for Radio Shack marketing. The judge in the case dismissed that terms of service, and then proceeded to order a sell of that information.

So yeah, the current AI company, whichever one we look at may be ethical and keep everything private. They could be anti-enshittification and do everything right. But all it takes is 1 bad CEO, or a board who wants more money, or a PE firm come in and bankrupt them... and all that data is out in the open.

That's why I run my own LLMs, abliterated (uncensored), and clean up my history when I'm done. I don't trust these companies with my deep secrets, or with back-and-forth that may reveal parts of me I don't want revealed.

But for the public clouds, I don't care if they know I'm uploading an image of various Asian writing and ask for a transliteration and translation. Or simple powershell crap, or "linux tool that can do $thing". Im reasonably sure simplistic question/answer with no further back and forth, is probably safe.
by cess11 | 2025-10-06 17:53:42+00:00
Here are some recent indicators:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/04/openai-altman-july-4-zohran-...

https://fortune.com/2025/07/08/sam-altman-democratic-party-p...

He's publicly and explicitly aligning himself with a religiously ultranationalist tendency, declaring an absurdly oppressive and aggressive narcoterrorist state to be a "miracle" that he's "extremely proud of".

Clearly he has a deep fear of equality and democracy, and considers the labour other people provide him with under the threat of misery and starvation to be his indisputable right to decide over.
by MisterTea | 2025-10-06 17:54:13+00:00
I figured it was Dempster though I did not know they were originally loaded with arms like skips. Dempster also made the unique "Dinosaur" hoist for roll off containers which used a yoke slid by a hydraulic cylinder. https://www.classicrefusetrucks.com/albums/DE/DE05.html

I'd like to know who came up with the roll-off idea as they can also be used to create a modular truck system where you can swap bodies. I always though the ultimate do-all truck is a roll off hook-lift with a boom crane and trailer hook up.
by jt2190 | 2025-10-06 17:54:40+00:00
This article is referencing a subscriber-only letter.

I think this video is from the same source as the letter

MicroStrategy Partnership: “Power Plai - Julien Garran - 02 October 2025” https://youtu.be/uz2EqmqNNlE

> Make no mistake, I think that this is the biggest and most dangerous bubble the world has ever seen. The misallocation of capital in the US (which also includes housing, VC and crypto) is already 17x the Dotcom bubble and 4x the 2008 real estate bubble, and as it unwinds it will not just threaten significant economic malaise, it will threaten to overturn the entire globalist agenda, that developed with the advent of Thatcher and Reagan in from 1979 and 1982, accelerated with the fall of the Berlin Wall fell in 1988, and sped up again with China’s accession into the WTO in 2002.
by grues-dinner | 2025-10-06 17:54:49+00:00
I also wonder if there's a element of tools and training.

Modern CAD tools have been horrible at "fiddly" ornamentation for decades compared to a hand drawn decoration. There was once an article about this but I can't find it now.

And then when architects spend careers building cubes and angular slab-sided and regular shapes they don't train their apprentices and juniors to be able to conceive, specify and draw a pleasing ogee and a proportional scrollwork around a window.

And there's definitely an element of can't-be-arsed about things. Riffing on your clothing example, I have an, IMO, outrageously expensive designer hoodie I was once given. It quickly failed because the kangaroo pouch was just sewn onto the single-layer front with no backing to reinforce the corner. Instant hole. Though there's some element of survivor bias there, as all the real shit from the 1920s fell apart immediately too, so it's not that everything was great.
by ptero | 2025-10-06 17:54:51+00:00
AMD has great hardware, but its software still leaves a lot to be desired for AMD to be a major AI hardware player. It takes years of unwavering leadership focus and hundreds of millions (probably billions) of dollars to get the software that works well for AI users.

The role the software played to get NVIDIA from a run-of-the-mill video card manufacturer to the top dog in AI hardware with 4T market cap is often underappreciated. My 2c.
by lotharrr | 2025-10-06 17:55:00+00:00
(author here)

Both sides connect to the "mailbox relay server" to perform key exchange and setup. That's a host named "relay.magic-wormhole.io".

If either side has a public IP address, the encrypted data is transferred directly (they exchange IP addresses through the encrypted pipe, and attempt to connect to all of them, so this also covers two peers on the same LAN). If neither do, they both connect to a public "transit helper" relay named "transit.magic-wormhole.io" which acts like a TURN server to get the encrypted bytes from one connection to the other. I run both services.
by jmbwell | 2025-10-06 17:55:42+00:00
I tried the same questions with my own account. I was surprised at how much it was able to synthesize that wasn't completely off-base.

With these sample questions, there wasn't much to learn, and it gave me relatively thoughtful-seeming responses. Nothing alarming -- I would expect it to recall things I've discussed with it, and it's very good at organizing things, so it's not a surprise that it did a good job at organizing a profile of me based on my interactions.

I would be curious how crafting the questions could yield unexpected or misleading results, though. I can imagine asking the same questions in different ways that might be designed to generate an answer in support of taking particular action. If I wanted to arrest me at the border, for example, I could probably ask questions in such a way that the answers would make me look arrest-able easily.

So this is my concern with ChatGPT -- not that it will reveal some unseen truth about me, but rather that it is trivial to manipulate it into "revealing" something false, especially as people consider it to be more capable and faithful than an elaborate sorting algorithm could ever be.
by ilamont | 2025-10-06 17:56:25+00:00
> It was all RAH RAH RAH and then blammo it blew apart. Skepticism was always around... again, I know because I was a skeptic and I arranged my career, with modest but far from total success, around the bubble not being sustainable, but everyone around me had no idea what I was talking about

There were some very prominent skeptics. Warren Buffett was regularly quoted as saying he didn't get what was going on and speculated that maybe it was time to retire.

Where I worked, people had seen tech boom and bust cycles before but what was different was the irrational exuberance wasn't just confined to a handful of stocks. Many people really did believe it was a new era and old rules didn't apply, and they were only too happy to check in on their rising Schwab and E-trade balances.
by ssl-3 | 2025-10-06 17:56:57+00:00
One doesn't have to scroll through them and find the nuggets themselves; it's digital data. It can be copied[1].

Once copied, one can then paste it into an LLM and have it find the nuggets.

[1]: And by "copied," I mean... even a long series of hasty cell phone photos of the screen is enough for ChatGPT to ingest the data with surprising accuracy. It's really good at this kind of thing.
by nmehner | 2025-10-06 17:56:59+00:00
On short sightedness: https://www.dw.com/en/russian-gas-in-germany-a-complicated-5...

"Several commentators, business leaders and academics have identified that 1970 deal as a significant fork in the road of the Cold War, as it established a mutual basis for economic cooperation between Russia and western Europe." There are certainly different opinions on that. Gas imports started long ago and in the cold war that approach was working to some extend.

Only 13% of gas is actually used for electricity ("Stromversorgung"): https://www.bdew.de/service/daten-und-grafiken/erdgas-absatz... most of it was used as cheap energy source for chemical plants and other industry.

> Germany didn't avoid nuclear by switching to renewables. It does so by burning coal and building gas-fired power plants.

That statement is plain wrong: https://energy-charts.info/charts/energy/chart.htm?l=en&c=DE... In 2013 about 300TWh of electricity came from fossil fuels, 92TWh from nuclear. In 2024 153TWh from fossil fuels and 0 from nuclear. So fossil fuels declined by 147TWh while nuclear only by 92TWh. Claiming that fossil fuels replaced nuclear is ridiculous, even after repeating it hundreds of times.

You can claim that keeping nuclear could have sped up the transition, but the inflexible nuclear plants could also have prevented people from investing in renewables, since the economics are worse if there is energy that is supplied permanently regardless of the price. Nuclear and renewables don't mix well.
by fnl | 2025-10-06 17:57:07+00:00
I really liked the main question. But I’m more interested in the structure how we journal, not if you use Logseq, OrgMode, paperback, etc.

For example, I try to journal by treating my work as “experiments” and tie those in turn to goals and challenges. And my experiments consist of a plan, prediction, the actual data, and the evaluation (of the data against the prediction). Finally, I constantly track the current state relevant towards the goal. If that sounds familiar to the Toyota Kata, that is because it is. And it should sound familiar to anyone trying to apply the scientific method.

I’d be curious to learn HOW others journal?
by Zigurd | 2025-10-06 17:57:20+00:00
AI isn't the only component of the bubble. SpaceX which has a genuinely successful business with Falcon 9, is also a huge bubble. SpaceX launches an amazing 25 times as many rockets as ULA in a year. But 2/3 of those are Starlink launches. No outside revenue. And SpaceX is valued at about 200X the valuation of ULA.
by GuB-42 | 2025-10-06 17:57:36+00:00
We may get some surprises but I don't think so:

- Trump doesn't project a peaceful image, that's not his style, unlike Obama. No matter the result of his actions, he is at a disadvantage.

- The September peace proposal for the Gaza war that could make a good argument is likely to be too recent to influence the decision.

- Trump wants to annex Greenland, I don't think the Norwegian Nobel Committee appreciates.
by jukkan | 2025-10-06 17:57:36+00:00
When M365 Copilot always had the "ask what's on your agenda for today" type of a welcome prompt, I decided to try how ChatGPT would reply. Whereas Microsoft has my email, calendar and files, its answer is just boring facts about tasks and activities.

ChatGPT, on the other hand, had none of those connections. Yet its answer was significantly better. Because based on our daily chats, it knew what was important to me and what I should be focusing on to pursue my goals.

This made me realize what kind of a threat OpenAI is to the likes of Google and MS. They don't need to gain access to your data. You are profiling yourself to ChatGPT in a way that your calendar and email never was. By having "private" discussions with the computer.
by coffeecoders | 2025-10-06 17:58:01+00:00
The troubling part is we are in the AI bubble whether we opted in or not.

The downstream effects are everywhere - real estate (data centers), energy (power consumption), education (automated tools), employment (tech layoffs), and equity markets (Nvidia propping up the spoos). It's not one sector this time, it’s systemic adjacency.

During the dot-com crash, retail got burned. During subprime, it was the global financial system. Today, AI exposure is distributed among mega-cap public companies, a16z-style VC funds, sovereign wealth, and shadowy circular debt deals between hyperscalers and AI startups.

Even if you are not betting on AI, your retirement fund is.
by lotharrr | 2025-10-06 17:58:59+00:00
We're making good progress on hole-punching, but it isn't available yet. Once complete, that should take some pressure/cost off the transit relay machine.

Note that the transit relay only sees ciphertext (for bulk data transfers). Even the mailbox server only sees ciphertext or SPAKE key-exchange messages. No server sees plaintext ever.
by runarberg | 2025-10-06 17:59:30+00:00
Also worth considering is the Uber effect of public infrastructure. Meaning that politicians may use the existence of StarLink as an excuse to delay or cancel public projects which would otherwise have delivered broadband internet to under-served areas via traditional infrastructure.

This is similar to how the existence of Uber has caused delays or cancellation of public transit projects because politicians were able to say the people were better served with Uber than public transit.
by skybrian | 2025-10-06 17:59:36+00:00
I wonder how many people understand how memory in ChatGPT works. I certainly didn't. Here's a pair of prompts you can try:

> What information do you have about my chats over the past year?

> Could you dump the full list in its original format?

I had thought that, since the "Saved memories" under settings was empty, it hadn't decided to remember anything, but it's not that simple.

You could get the same information by scrolling through the list of chats on the right, but I don't like that the list of previous chats is influencing the current chat.

Worse: I tried this prompt:

> What "user knowledge memories" do you have?

And it was pretty accurate. Apparently the "Saved memories" setting doesn't work?