MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by starchild3001 | 2025-10-30 04:37:51+00:00
I recently downloaded about 10 years of monthly price returns for QQQ, TQQQ, NVDA, GBTC, and a few others. Then I asked ChatGPT and Gemini (separately) to find the portfolio that maximizes an adjusted CAGR — roughly, mean return minus ½ × standard deviation².

Result: 70% NVDA, 30% GBTC (Bitcoin), and 0% QQQ or TQQQ. Honestly, not a bad mix — especially for a small, high-risk slice of your portfolio.

Next, I compared TQQQ (Triple Qs) vs. QQQ using the same 10-year monthly data. The optimizer picked 100% TQQQ, which again makes sense if you’re doing this in a tax-advantaged account like a 401(k) or IRA and only with money you’re willing to take some risk on.

Then I expanded the dataset — 55 years of returns across major asset classes (S&P 500, gold, short- and long-term Treasuries, corporate bonds, real estate, etc.) — and asked for the optimal portfolio. The winner: ~85% S&P 500, 15% gold, though 75/25 gives nearly the same return with a better Sharpe ratio.

A few quick takeaways:

Gold → GLDM ETF is the best vehicle.

QQQ → QQQM or TQQQ are the best versions.

And if you’re feeling adventurous: 70% NVDA, 30% IBIT (Bitcoin) isn’t crazy.

For what it’s worth, I’ve been running 75% stocks / 25% gold for a while now, but I’m thinking of carving out ~10% of the stock portion for a more aggressive tilt: TQQQ (6%), NVDA (2%), IBIT (1%) — because why not?
by deadfoxygrandpa | 2025-10-30 04:38:05+00:00
> It was the same thing with the Soviet union, was it ever really successful at any point?

yes. the soviet union was wildly successful for most of its history. it went from a backwater poor agrarian country to an industrial superpower near peer with the US in a single generation, while simultaneously going through multiple brutal wars and crushing nazi germany at immense cost. despite all that, the soviet union had the fastest and greatest economic and quality of life rise of any country in the 20th century.

of course it had problems that led to its collapse but you cannot be serious and say it was never successful at any point
by eks391 | 2025-10-30 04:40:54+00:00
I'm not sure where you are reading, but people are not free to rant in China. Many of my friends would lose privileges because they were foolish enough to openly speak poorly regarding certain topics, and suddenly they were banned from Wechat, which is equivalent to being banned from the internet, and from using money in noncash form. My sister was visiting and was dumb enough to get herself banned from way more services and she was scared she wouldn't be able to get back home. In a very few places, they check your social score to ensure that you aren't low-life enough to be barred from there too. I only spoke freely after checking an area for no cameras, so I always had all of my privileges, but me and a Chinese friend, after coming to the USA (I am not Chinese, only went there for school), hope we never end up back in China. Regarding day to day life in the USA, I am unaffected by China.
by coffee-- | 2025-10-30 04:41:04+00:00
Looks a lot like The Last Gameboard[1], which almost worked well (but didn’t, at least for me). It had a mechanism for detecting and tracking pieces, and a module for FoundryVTT, but the tracking was too glitchy. And the hardware was too slow.

[1] https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/gameboard1/gameboard-1
by thomasahle | 2025-10-30 04:41:20+00:00
> text tokens are discrete while image tokens are continuous. Each model has a finite number of text tokens - say, around 50,000. Each of those tokens corresponds to an embedding of, say, 1000 floating-point numbers. Text tokens thus only occupy a scattering of single points in the space of all possible embeddings. By contrast, the embedding of an image token can be any sequence of those 1000 numbers. So an image token can be far more expressive than a series of text tokens.

This is an interesting point. But if this was true, couldn't we just put a text convolutional nn below the transformer stack to reduce the token count by a similar factor 10?
by Arainach | 2025-10-30 04:41:26+00:00
It sprung up from capitalist propaganda and intentional sabotage of the government by conservatives.

> I don't want to abolish government. I simply want to reduce it to the size where I can drag it into the bathroom and drown it in the bathtub.

Grover Norquist said the quiet part out loud in 2001, but conservatives have been running that playbook since the New Deal.
by linguae | 2025-10-30 04:42:39+00:00
Additionally, while this is US-centric, there were still many households in the mid-1990s whose first computers were PCs running Windows 95, just in time for the World Wide Web to be widely available, which created demand for personal computers. Additionally, this was during the time when Apple was struggling; its Performa lineup geared toward home users was not in the best of shape in 1995 (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power_Macintosh_5200_LC). By the time Steve Jobs returned and Apple released the first iMac (1998), it was just about time for Windows 98.
by yndoendo | 2025-10-30 04:43:04+00:00
Are low birth rates a problem? The job market keeps being published about lack of employment. Recent was this UK having a 1,200,000 plus college graduates and less than 100,000 job placements. The USA market is also bad with very limited economic mobility based on years past.

Is the job market too restrictive with maximize profit over maximum knowledge transfer and upkeep? Not properly balancing older and newer labor. That is the reason for "low birth rate problem"?

ML is being pushed to condense the labor market even more. Along with growth of larger and more powerful businesses. Number of businesses are pushing to be an oligopoly and more to a duopoly or monopoly.

The current and future labor market with modern business ideology does not seem to match the statement _low birth rate problem_. The problem seems to be elsewhere.
by SR2Z | 2025-10-30 04:45:54+00:00
> You mean like when China built chatgpt 4 in a weekend and open-sourced it for giggles?

DeepSeek R1 is an amazing feat. It's not at the same level as other large frontier models from American companies, just close enough to make them sweat.

> ..or you mean how US manufacturing 'clusters' almost completely disappeared/replaced by Chinese ones?

The value of goods manufactured in the US has never been higher. US manufacturing focuses on goods at the top of the value chain: jetliners, cars, semiconductors, medical scanners, and other advanced electronics. These tend to cluster in a few places - for example, Long Beach is a hub of space and avionics manufacturing, Texas has the "Silicon Prarie," and Boeing in Everett is one of the major employers in the region. Manufacturing has disappeared as a share of GDP, but that's not because we make less stuff.

> Right, cause you have to physically pet every investor on the head to fundraise, your remote employees must be in san fran cause network latency interferes with their windows remote desktop workflow, and, for some reason, you have to be physically close to your customers when you're selling your web-only llm wrapper saas.

You sound sarcastic, but YES. You do generally have to physically be present to make deals. It is obviously theoretically possible to run a world-leading software company fully remote. Despite that, most of them are in-person at least a few days a week. If you want to take advantage of SV's easy VC money, you absolutely have to be present.

Companies are not purely about the numbers. A lot of business is imprecise and heavily dependent on things like just plain LIKING the people you're in bed with, and unfortunately there is no substitute for being in the same room as someone to make a decision like that.
by mdeeks | 2025-10-30 04:46:35+00:00
They aren't just building "a lot" of renewables and nuclear, they are building an absolutely mind boggling amount of it. Last year it was more than the rest of the world combined!

Who cares about mental gymnastics. It's a win for literally everyone and I hope you ca see it that way instead. Competition is good. It drives others to keep up.

Despite what the current US govt wants, the economics of solar and other renewables will drive it. Worst they can do is slow it down a bit.
by ehnto | 2025-10-30 04:47:10+00:00
It's what gives US chocolate the "vomit/bile" taste uncommon in other chocolate. I am guessing it becomes acquired or unnoticeable taste for people who eat it a lot but man is it a shock if you usually eat chocolate without it!

I have no idea why they use it, but I can think of one really good reason why they shouldn't, your product probably shouldn't have "hints of vomit" in its flavour profile.
by kragen | 2025-10-30 04:47:19+00:00
Error-diffusion dithering or dithering with a precomputed blue-noise or white-noise pattern are also deterministic.

One standard point of view is that what introduces noise is quantization, in the sense that the quantized image has an unwanted difference from the desired image, and dithering consists of techniques to shape that noise. The Bayer-matrix ordered dithering algorithm presented here concentrates the noise at high frequencies where the eye is less sensitive to it, but it still retains some noise at lower frequencies, which is the banding you're commenting on.

Dave Long had the sharp observation earlier today that Bresenham-style line drawing is a form of dithering, where the signal being represented is the position of the pen rather than the brightness of the visual field. (I see that dreamcompiler made the same observation two days ago: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45728962 but I don't know if Dave saw it there)

We had a good discussion of dithering here a couple of days ago, connected with a significantly more comprehensive article with a less fancy presentation: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45728231
by ZeWaka | 2025-10-30 04:47:20+00:00
Ah, I was aware of the different Fabric (Yarn) mappings and internal names (due to the few mods like architectury) but I think Forge switched over to Mojang's?

> As of 1.16.5 [(2021)], Forge will be using Mojang’s Official Mappings, or MojMaps, for the forseeable future

Pretty sure this applies to NeoForge as well: https://neoforged.net/personal/sciwhiz12/what-are-mappings/
by dlubarov | 2025-10-30 04:48:37+00:00
> The ones willing to defer to an ICJ investigation?

What state has ever consented to an ICJ investigation that was focused on interrogating its military command or other sensitive military assets?

> Hell, an IAEA inspection?

If a state is an IAEA member, their nuclear program is (ostensibly) not a military program, so there should be no military secrets at risk.

> America's infinite tolerance for Israeli transgression

Even if we accept the extraordinary claim that the US would have tolerated what it knew was an intentional attack on an expensive ship, at best that means that we can't infer anything from the US reaction. There are plenty of other reasons to doubt that the attack was intentional. I.e. it's extremely difficult to imagine any risk-benefit analysis under which it would make sense for Israel to suddenly attack a neutral superpower in the middle of a war for its survival.
by shubhamjain | 2025-10-30 04:49:34+00:00
> Although low birth rates have now become a problem, back then it seemed like a solution.

They haven't, imo. I am from India, and I have been hearing for the last two decades how we have avoided same mistakes as China and the latter is headed for a demographic collapse. China is only marching forward, and focusing more on automation to hedge its bets. While overpopulation in India has choked almost every city in India. I honestly don't know what will happen as more people migrate from rural to urban areas.

India's population will peak in 2065, while China's already has. It's depressing to imagine that 250-300M more people are left to be added before we finally see a decline.

Just like 1970s claim "overpopulation will destroy the planet" turned out to be exaggerated, the modern idea that “a large population is a blessing” feels equally misguided.
by Dylan16807 | 2025-10-30 04:49:48+00:00
Technically it's running software on the programmable I/O, but that software is just a loop of four outputs that advances when it gets a 1 bit and doesn't advance when it gets a 0 bit. It feels like the hardware that manages the buffer and turns it into a high speed serial stream is doing the more important work here.

And the CPU that's actually deciding on the bits doesn't have to bang them with precise timing, it just has to put them into that buffer.
by nextaccountic | 2025-10-30 04:50:15+00:00
You can deceive while telling the truth, like this ad from a Brazilian newspaper (dubbed in English) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PShbxd42JN8

Truth needs to be put in context. Truth needs to be interpreted. There is no such thing as objective truth.

Effective propaganda is like a filter that is everywhere you look. You don't know it's there because you never see the world without it.
by lchoquel | 2025-10-30 04:50:52+00:00
Hi novoreorx, the biggest difference is that in Pipelex workflows, we express the logic in our high-level language, rather than in Python or typescript. This makes it easier to collaborate between tech and non-tech people, like domain experts. It's also great for collaboration with AI: the declarative approach and the high level of abstraction means that LLMs have all the context to understand what's going on in the workflow. Also, we don't use Pipelex for "autonomous agents": our workflows are meant to be repeatable and deterministic, like a tool. Like a tool that can be used by agents though our MCP server.
by seg_lol | 2025-10-30 04:51:03+00:00
You should go to rumble and watch the Charlie Kirk show. It is a huge stream of jingoistic fallacies, fear and hate mongering and a bald faced usurpation of what it means to be an American. Anyone they that disagrees with them is an unpatriotic unamerican leftist that hates all that is good in the world. Their words.
by ssivark | 2025-10-30 04:53:19+00:00
Think for a minute about how undefined and vague what you are asking is. Unless the specific claim you have made is close to verbatim in some reference (in which case you're doing search & retrieval), it's incredibly hard to "automate" the interpretation of meaning from the source doc, your query, and the token being generated by the LLM -- such that you can give a sensible citation. There's a long tail of cases where this will break, and the moment you expose this functionality to users they will have the easy cases for breakfast, quickly start exploring the long tail and complain about failures.
by lagniappe | 2025-10-30 04:53:58+00:00
It's not open source, we use a system that is similar to delegated proof of stake with a deterministic leader selection algorithm. dht via libp2p.

Bittorrent would be a cool way to do it. The trials I've seen with other networks over tor work in practice, however, its more fit for slower proof of work block driven networks with slower block times and less expectation for fast finality.

The shift away from PoW is largely driven by the need/expectation for semi-instant finality, which isn't feasible in 1st generation networks, systems where your transaction goes to a tx pool, waits for fee market acceptance, and then is mined into a block in an interval based in minutes with multiple confirms needed. There are pros and cons and use cases for both strategies, however the trend in defi, which is our niche, is finality in under a second, so that's the motivator behind that design decision. It's not without its faults, you're trading mining and difficulty adjustment algorithms for deterministic leader selection and absence/latency plans.
by ActorNightly | 2025-10-30 04:54:22+00:00
Im really not sure why you have to lie to make your point. Just to be clear, you never tried a modern laptop with linux. Because you certianly don't have to patch kernels or deal with drivers anymore. The only time you have to deal with drivers is if you want to game on linux, and even then most of that is covered by modern distros.
by 8n4vidtmkvmk | 2025-10-30 04:54:33+00:00
Yessss! This is what I want. If there is a natural set of filters that can be applied, let me speak it in natural language, then the LLM can translate that as good as possible and then I can review it. E.g. searching photos between X and Y date, containing human Z, at location W. These are all filters that can be presented as separate UI elements so I can confirm the LLM interpreted correctly and I can adjust the dates or what have you without having to repeat the whole sentence again.
by abtinf | 2025-10-30 04:54:34+00:00
SQLite likely dominates all other databases combined on the metrics you mentioned, I would guess by at least an order of magnitude.

Server side. Client side. iOS, iPad, Mac apps. Uses in every field. Uses in aerospace.

Just think for a moment that literally every photo and video taken on every iPhone (and I would assume android as well) ends up stored (either directly or sizable amounts of metadata) in a SQLite db.
by quantified | 2025-10-30 04:56:07+00:00
Thank you for the detail. I had a more loose understanding of "about 100 years" after. If a generation is 20 years (at that point in history), that would be 5 generations. 25 years per, 4 generations.

The fact that many details of his actions are shared with other legends/traditions sure makes it look like he existed as a person and had lots of stories attributed to him.

The Councils of Nicea and Trent could not have been free of politics.

Those who were told falsehoods and believed them might well hold firm. Let's be real, evidence for the theology around the stories is lacking. This god does not show any influence of existence for a very long time. It's just people doing what people do.
by rasz | 2025-10-30 04:56:54+00:00
>On a Pico? No

but Yes on pico2 because RP2350 has separate fast serializer (HSTX) hardware block able to clock out at 2x the global clock (DDR). 320MHz OC results in 600Mbit output. Here example pumping out 175 MByte/s of data encoded as HDMI signal (3 lanes) without touching PIOs https://github.com/steve-m/hsdaoh-rp2350 to be used with $6 MS2130 USB 3.0 4k HDMI Video Capture dongle.
by locknitpicker | 2025-10-30 04:59:34+00:00
> Most code bases don't need dynamically loaded objects designed with interfaces that can be swapped out. In fact, that functionality is nearly never useful. But that's how most people wrote Java code.

Perhaps I'm not following, but dynamically loaded objects are the core feature of shared libraries. Among it's purposes, it allows code to be reused and even updated without having to recompile the project. That's pretty useful.

Interfaces are also very important. They allow your components to be testable and mockable. You cannot have quality software without these basic testing techniques. Also, interfaces are extremely important to allow your components to be easily replaced even at runtime.

Perhaps you haven't had the opportunity to experience the advantages of using these techniques, or were you mindful of when you benefited from them. We tend to remember the bad parts and assume the good parts are a given. But personal tastes don't refute the value and usefulness of features you never learned to appreciate.
by rjzzleep | 2025-10-30 04:59:35+00:00
Am I the only one that's sad that poetry happened before pdm otherwise we might have had pdm as a standard instead of uv, addressing many of the things uv addresses without all the extra bells and whistles that make it cumbersome. I don't like the wedding between package manager and install manager.

... but then again neither pdm nor uv would have happened without poetry.
by waste_monk | 2025-10-30 04:59:42+00:00
>That way when your CA private key leaks (the key which we never ever rotate, of course)

As with X.509, any serious usage will involve a hardware security module, so that compromise of the CA host does not allow the key to be leaked. You'd still have a very bad day, but it can be mitigated.

I do think it's a fairly significant flaw that SSH CA doesn't support intermediate CA's (or at least didn't last time I looked into it) to enable an offline root CA.

>Bonus points if the same CA is also used for authenticating users.

The SSH CA mechanism can be used for both Host and User auth, yes.

Keeping in mind, in a real use case this would be tied to something like active directory / LDAP, so you can automate issuance of ssh keys to users and hosts.

Systems configured to trust the SSH CA can trust that the user logging in is who they say they are because the principal has already been authenticated and vouched for by the identity provider, no more manually managing known_hosts and authorized_keys, or having to deal with Trust On First Use or host key changed errors.

You can also set the CA's endorsement of the issued keys to fairly short lifetimes, so you can simplify your keymat lifecycle management a great deal - no worrying about old keys lying around forever if the CA only issues them as valid for an hour / day / etc. .

Overall I think you still come out ahead on security.
by somenameforme | 2025-10-30 04:59:52+00:00
It's not that people turned against the government just randomly. Who was the last genuinely socially motivated President we had? I idealize JFK, but I think that's largely because of his charisma, how he ended, and obviously the space program. Yet how did he not just immediately condemn and completely dismantle the entire CIA when the proposal for Operation Northwoods [1] reached his desk, and was one signature away from execution? And that'll probably look benign as the actions from more recent decades are declassified in the future.

And after his assassination everything went downhill fast with divide and conquer, all alongside global self destructive geopolitical nonsense that continues to this very day. We have spent, just since 2000 upwards of a very conservative baseline of $10 trillion on war and military related expenses. That's a starting point of about $30,000 for every single man, woman, and child in America. Think about all of the amazing things we could have done with that money. Instead we just blew it on pointless wars and have literally less than nothing to show for it since they not only made the US far less safe, but made the world far less stable.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Northwoods