MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by jstummbillig | 2025-10-02 19:32:02+00:00
The universe is not configured in such a way that trillion dollar companies come into existence without a lot of things going well over long periods of time, so if we accept money as the standard for being right, they are necessarily right, a lot.

Everything ends and companies are no exception. But thinking about the biggest threats is what people in managerial positions in companies do all day, every day. Let's also give some credit to meritocracy and assume that they got into those positions because they are not super bad at their jobs, on average.

So unless you are very specific about the shape of the threat and provide ideas and numbers beyond what is obvious (because those will have been considered), I think it's unlikely and therefor unreasonable to assume that a bystanders evaluation of the situation trumps the judgement of the people making these decisions for a living with all the additional resources and information at any given point.

Here's another way to look at this: Imagine a curious bystander were to judge decisions that you make at your job, while having only partial access to the information that you have to do the job, that you do every day for years. Will this person at some point be right, if we repeat this process often enough? Absolutely. But is it likely, on any single instance? I think not.
by Havoc | 2025-10-02 19:32:12+00:00
>distribution of the model is the real moat, theyre doing 700m WAU of the most financially valuable users on earth.

Distribution isn't a moat if the thing being distributed is easily substitutable. Everything under the sun is OAI API compatible these days.

700 WAU are fickle AF when a competitor offers a comparable product for half the price.

Moat needs to be something more durable. Cheaper, Better, some other value added tie in (hardware / better UI / memory). There needs to be some edge here. And their obvious edge - raw tech superiority...is looking slim.
by antisthenes | 2025-10-02 19:32:14+00:00
> the system is deliberately so opaque that doctors don't even know what your costs would be.

You're telling me professionals who make $300k after 20 years of education have 0 clue about what their patients might pay, or have never had patients who expressed concern over costs? Or don't have friends or relatives who expressed dissatisfaction with a high-deductible plan? Or aren't complicit in getting kickbacks for prescribing opioids?

We gotta stop absolving people of accountability. And that includes EVERYONE in the chain who benefits. Yes, this includes doctors.

Btw, I have had doctors who do try, and many more now will accept reasonable cash prices for their services. That should be encouraged and commended.
by stephc_int13 | 2025-10-02 19:32:26+00:00
Everyone is trying to compare AI companies with something that happened in the past, but I don't think we can predict much from that.

GPUs are not railroads or fiber optics.

The cost structure of ChatGPT and other LLM based services is entirely different than web, they are very expensive to build but also cost a lot to serve.

Companies like Meta, Microsoft, Amazon, Google would all survive if their massive investment does not pay off.

On the other hand, OpenAI, Anthropic and others could be soon find themselves in a difficult position and be at the mercy of Nvidia.
by crystal_revenge | 2025-10-02 19:32:47+00:00
> Amazon had similar issues and were operating at massive losses until circa 2005ish when they started turning things around with e-commerce really picking up.

Amazon's worst year was 2000 when they lost around $1 billion on revenue around $2.8 billion, I would not say this is anywhere near "similar" in scale to what we're seeing with OpenAI. Amazon was losing 0.5x revenue, OpenAI 3x.

Not to mention that most of the OpenAI infrastructure spend has a very short life span. So it's not like Amazon we're they're figuring out how to build a nationwide logistic chain that has large potential upsides for a strong immediate cost.

> If the revenue keeps going up and losses keep going down

That would require better than "dogshit" unit economics [0]

0. https://pluralistic.net/2025/09/27/econopocalypse/#subprime-...
by thewebguyd | 2025-10-02 19:32:53+00:00
> is that Google doesn't have a product culture.

This is evident in Android and the pixel lineup, which could be my favorite phone if not for some of the most baffling and frustrating decisions that lead to a very weirdly disjointed app experience (comparing to something like iOS's first party tools).

Like removing location based reminders from google tasks, for some reason? Still no apple shortcuts-like automation built-in, keep can still do location based reminders but it's a notes app so which am I supposed to use? Google tasks or keep? Well, gemini adds reminders to google tasks and not keep if I wanted to use keep primarily.

If they just spent some time polishing and integrating these tools, and add some of their ML magic to it they'd blow Apple out of the park.

All of Google's tech is cool and interesting, from a tech standpoint but it's not well integrated for a full consumer experience.
by roeles | 2025-10-02 19:33:00+00:00
In agile circles I have seen this exercise:

Have two people sit next to each other, each with a blank piece of paper and a pen.

Have them both simultaneously write down the numbers from 1 to 1: one time in decimal, one time in roman numbers and one time as letters of the alphabet (a=1, b=2...)

One person goes about it system by system (first decimal, then Roman... ). The other goes about it number by number (1,I,A,2,II,B...)

Time them both and compare their times.
by Analemma_ | 2025-10-02 19:33:06+00:00
Not to mention nobody bothered chasing Amazon-- by the time potential competitors like Walmart realized what was up, it was way too late and Amazon had a 15-year head start. OpenAI had a head start with models for a bit, but now their models are basically as good (maybe a little better, maybe a little worse) than the ones from Anthropic and Google, so they can't stay still for a second. Not to mention switching costs are minimal: you just can't have much of a moat around a product which is fundamentally a "function (prompt: String): String", it can always be abstracted away, commoditized, and swapped out for a competitor.
by infecto | 2025-10-02 19:33:07+00:00
Does DeepSeek have any market penetration in the US? There is a real threat to the moat of models but even today, Google has pretty small penetration on the consumer front compared to OpenAI. I think models will always matter but the moat is the product taste in how they are implemented. Imo from a consumer perspective, OAI has been doing well in this space.
by docdeek | 2025-10-02 19:33:10+00:00
> But what I can tell you is that if I were someone on Wall Street looking at this situation, I’d be doing a solid double-take of Strava’s leadership right now. You’ve just poked a bear that virtually never loses patent disputes, and done so by picking a patent that’s likely to get nullified, while concurrently being upset about something that happened 10 years ago. All while running the risk of Garmin simply saying “No problem, let’s turn off the API from Garmin to Strava”. Instantly, you’re hemorrhaging paid Strava users. For what reason? Just because you don’t want to put tiny source/attribution text on a display page somewhere?

This seems right to me - why, when moving to your IPO, would you do this?
by mk89 | 2025-10-02 19:33:23+00:00
USA tried to establish themselves in those lands also to prevent future terror attacks, which I think they did. It's questionable if it was worth it or the right thing to do, but in the meantime, you guys in the USA didn't have a single terror attack afterwards, or? (I can't remember to be honest)

What would a single Israel's strike on the 8th of October etc have done? They got 100+ hostages, some are still there btw after 2 years, and there is proof that the civilians knew about it and actually supported it.

People still support Hamas and still believe they will win. Without mentioning that those people (the civilians, yes) supported that s** that "Hamas" had done on the 7th of October - there is plenty of evidence for it.

Interesting link: https://www.pcpsr.org/en/node/997
by Animats | 2025-10-02 19:33:27+00:00
Actually, most of the POSIX compatibility stuff is in QNX's equivalent of "libc". When you call Unix "write", the library does a MsgSend to the appropriate service. MsgSend is in the kernel, but whatever performs the write is in some other process.

Some other functions, such as program loading, are in user space .so files. When you spawn a new process (in QNX, spawn is the usual function, and fork/exec are emulated for backwards compatibility), the library in your program attaches to the .so file that contains the program loader. The user process requests memory and decodes the executable image, and sets up the new process environment. If something in executable file decode does something wrong, the process faults in the usual user space way.

There's no privileged emulation layer.

At boot, the .so files for this sort of thing are part of the boot image and are loaded into memory, so they are available even before there's a file system. As are the userspace programs needed during startup. You can build your own boot image, with whatever programs you want. You might, for example, include the "dashboard driver" for a car, and omit terminal support. There's no assumption in QNX that there's a console, because, often, there isn't.
by adamhartenz | 2025-10-02 19:33:29+00:00
Marketing != advertising. Although this budget probably does include some traditional advertising. It is most likely about building the brand and brand awareness, as well as partnerships etc. I would imagine the sales team is probably quite big, and host all kinds of events. But I would say a big chunk of this "sales and marketing" budget goes into lobbying and government relations. And they are winning big time on that front. So it is money well spent from their perspective (although not from ours). This is all just an educated guess from my experience with budgets from much smaller companies.
by nim_chimpsky | 2025-10-02 19:33:56+00:00
I won't go as far as to say "Rise of Ubuntu" a private corporation with a Advertising and PR budget. Is 70,000 packages and indication of the fall of Debian ? A self-governing body (Debian) with a CoC (no matter how imperfect) is worse than a Benevolent (Sic!) Dictator, Really ?

I am beginning to wonder if this blog post is not too different from the raging far right agenda of dismantling all "regulation". "Open Source" has had some nefarious far right loud mouths at least in the past. It would be no surprise if this is another.
by 14 | 2025-10-02 19:34:18+00:00
I think once mainstream this will be very popular. No tattoos myself but always considered it. One of the biggest concerns I have is who do I go to. Everyone knows there are all sorts of tattoo artists some good at realism, some good at lettering, or many many more abilities one may be good at tattooing. And there are also artists who should never be tattooing. With this machine I imagine it would give a consistent reliable tattoo that would be exactly like the design one chose.

Other benefits I could see is I imagine it could be much faster. I also imagine it could bring costs down eventually and you could select the design and know that will be $200 and one hour. It would take out a lot of the unknowns those unsure about tattoos hold in my opinion. I would be willing to try this machine out.
by rdtsc | 2025-10-02 19:34:19+00:00
Not in a thousand years I would have expected CNN to start reporting on this.

Hope they got some good lines responding to accusations on how every single one of them, including the janitors at the CNN Center in Atlanta are antisemitic.

-"But we're not!" -"Aha, that's exactly what they always say, clearly a sign of guilt!" /s
by busterarm | 2025-10-02 19:34:25+00:00
I went through NYC's gifted program in early grades. I grew up on rent control and food stamps.

My closest school when I started, before the gifted program, was spending the majority of its resources on special ed programs and barely functional. The gifted program allowed me to attend much better schools.

The gifted program was also the basis of what allowed me to even interview to attend (and eventually test into) NYC private schools. Because of class I would not have had that opportunity otherwise. In fact, at first these schools didn't want to deal with me -- we had to be very persistent over a couple of years just to get me in.

Before the gifted program I was years ahead of my peers and barely getting an education in school. It wasn't without problems, but it definitely created opportunities I benefit from today that I otherwise would not have had access to.

Gifted Program is not just a cheat code for kids of parents with means. The parents of means are already sending their kids to private schools and gave up on the NYC public school system decades ago.
by varenc | 2025-10-02 19:34:29+00:00
It's a bit misleading to frame stock comp as "60% of revenue" since their expenses are way larger than their revenue. R&D was $6.7B which would be 156% of revenue by the same math.

A better way to look at it is they had about $12.1B in expenses. Stock was $2.5B, or roughly 21% of total costs.
by tptacek | 2025-10-02 19:34:50+00:00
I had a conversation in a chat room yesterday about AI-assisted math tutoring where a skeptic said that the ability of GPT5 to effortlessly solve quotient differentials or partial fraction decomposition or rational inequalities wasn't indicative of LLM improvements, but rather just represented the LLMs driving CAS tools and thus didn't count.

As a math student, I can't possibly care less about that distinction; either way, I paste in a worked problem solution and ask for a critique, and either way I get a valid output like "no dummy multiply cos into the tan before differentiating rather than using the product rule". Prior to LLMs, there was no tool that had that UX.

In the same way: LLMs are probably mostly not off the top of their "heads" (giant stacks of weight matrices) axiomatically deriving vulnerabilities, but rather just doing a very thorough job of applying existing program analysis tools, assembling and parallel-evaluating large numbers of hypothesis, and then filtering them out. My interlocutor in the math discussion would say that's just tool calls, and doesn't count. But if you're a vulnerability researcher, it doesn't matter: that's a DX that didn't exist last year.

As anyone who has ever been staffed on a project triaging SAST tool outputs before would attest: it extremely didn't exist.
by sfRattan | 2025-10-02 19:34:51+00:00
I care that software I depend upon survives long term. In consequence, I care to some extent that the principal company or organization building that software also survives... But that finite concern is balanced against the simultaneous concern that the software itself can survive the organization's potential dissolution. I don't want to have to make a sudden, stressful, expensive migration because corporate buy-outs, bankruptcies, or mergers result in rug-pulls for software I use.

"Fair" source does absolutely nothing to allievate those concerns. The four software freedoms do.

It is true that for a quarter century software developers have naively licensed their projects under MIT and BSD style permissive licenses, and have then felt robbed when big companies come in and eat their lunch. Except it was never their lunch because they didn't actually use licenses that would have asserted their rights to that lunch.

Thankfully, that naivete is finally, slowly dying but, rather than use robust solutions that have been around for decades (e.g. GPL-or-AGPL/proprietary dual license), some developers have invented a new, largely untested concept and named it by dressing up their own sour grapes and spite as "fairness".

"Fair" source software is a non-solution in search of a problem.

Free software and strong copyleft licenses already exist. Dual-licensing already exists. Viable, profitable, healthy, ethical companies built on these strategies already exist.

I used to think Stallman was a crank and a fundamentalist, and he absolutely is, and thank goodness for that. I now think "open-source" is exactly as diluted as free software advocates initially pointed out, and the emergence of "fair" source is part of the damage it has done.
by instagraham | 2025-10-02 19:35:03+00:00
The immutability of documentation tech matters more in a world with AI.

The cameras used to document "news" will need to be watermarked, fingerprinted and authenticated, like what Canon and Nikon are already doing (and which AFP has already adopted).

It may have seemed gimmicky at first, but in a year or two, you'll probably only be able to trust visuals from companies that do this (wire agencies like AFP, AP and Reuters are heavily disincentivised to create fake news anyway but that's another topic).

At a certain level, I imagine social media apps will also encourage direct camera-to-post for documentation/videos of reality, since this will be the only end-to-end method to verify an image was created unaltered. I can imagine a world where, if you film a protest through the Instagram app, you'd get some kind of "this is real" badge on it, whereas if you upload a video, it gets treated as "could be AI" like 99% of all future content.
by munk-a | 2025-10-02 19:35:06+00:00
They won't always. You'll always have turn-over - but if it's a major problem for your company it's clearly something you need to work out internally. People, generally, hate switching jobs, especially in an uncertain political climate, especially when expenses are going up - there is a lot of momentum to just stay where you are.

You may lose a few employees to poaching, sure - but the math on the relative cost to hire someone for 100m vs. training a bunch employees and losing a portion of those is pretty strongly in your favor.
by cthalupa | 2025-10-02 19:35:06+00:00
My point is that the ratios are no longer considered relevant because we now understand better that HDL itself is not a particularly useful indication of anything - high HDL doesn't help you if your atherogenic particles are also high. All the clinical guidelines these days from places like the NLA, AHA, ACC focus basically entirely on lowering LDL (and will likely focus on lowering Lp(a) for relevant populations once drugs currently in the pipeline are available)

https://eas-society.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/11/2019_dysl...

https://www.jacc.org/doi/10.1016/j.jacc.2022.07.006

https://www.lipidjournal.com/article/S1933-2874(25)00317-4/f...

https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/cir.0000000000000625

TG/HDL ratio is useful in one place, though - it's a reasonably good screen for insulin resistance if your labwork doesn't include more direct measures.

As for lifestyle intervention vs. medication - lifestyle changes are maybe enough if you're young. Like, in your early to mid 20s young. Plaque is a lifetime accumulation thing, and it's not like it waits until you're old to start accumulating, and while soft plaque can regress, it takes very low levels of LDL - sub 50, and similar with Lp(a). Not sure what the target is for cumulative ApoB. By the time you're diagnosed with ASCVD the treatment target for your atherogenic particles is lower than you can achieve with lifestyle changes alone, and requires medication. And there's a lot of data, such as was examined for the latest NLA recommendations that treatment targets should probably be even lower and people on statins or other therapy for them even sooner. We've relied on CAC as an indicator for a long time because they're relatively cheap and easy in comparison to things that actually pick up soft plaque, but soft plaque can and does still block your artery and can rupture, and even most people with dangerous levels of soft plaque will score a 0 on a CAC up until their 40s or 50s.

We also just know that lifestyle changes just don't work. People don't do them. So even if you're otherwise a candidate because of age, etc., the doctor should still almost certainly be recommending medication - and then if the patient really believes they can make the change, they can decline.
by flyinglizard | 2025-10-02 19:35:14+00:00
I'm sure lots of ChatGPT interactions are for making buying decisions, and just how easy would it be to prioritize certain products to the top? This is where the real money is. With SEO, you were making the purchase decision and companies paid to get their wares in front of you; now with AI, it's making the buy decision mostly on its own.
by goatsi | 2025-10-02 19:35:22+00:00
I'm glad to see you use "most of this war", acknowledging that Israel has at times totally blockaded all food and medicine from Gaza (and not for logistic or military reasons, but as a pure pressure tactic as stated by Israeli officials).

https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/02/middleeast/israel-halts-gaza-...

And it's true, Israel is not required to accept aid from other countries for Gaza. They could instead provide the full required resources for civilians in the occupied areas themselves.
by koverstreet | 2025-10-02 19:35:34+00:00
> It seems like bcachefs would benefit from parallel development spirals, where unproven code is guarded by experimental flags and recommended only for users who are prepared to monitor and apply patches outside of the main kernel release cycle, while the default configuration of the mainline version goes through a more thorough test and validation process and more rarely sees "surprise" breakage.

Maybe if you're a distance observer who isn't otherwise participating in the project

What's the saying about too many cooks in the kitchen?

These concerns aren't coming from the people who are actually using it. They're coming from people who are accustomed to the old ways of doing things and have no idea what working closely with modern test infrastructure is like.

There wasn't anything unusual about the out-of-merge-window patches I was sending Linus except for volume, which is exactly what you'd expect in a rapidly stabilizing filesystem. If anything I've been more conservative about what I send that other subsystems.

> It certainly appears that Linus can't tell the difference between your new feature introductions and your maintenance fixes, and that should trigger some self-reflection. He clearly couldn't let all of the thousands of different kernel components operate in the style you seem to prefer for bacachefs.

If Linus can't figure out which subsystems have QA problems and which don't, that's his problem, not mine.
by pmarreck | 2025-10-02 19:36:19+00:00
There are languages that compile to Lua. Have you investigated those? For example, you can use a TypeScript syntax and pick up free typechecking along the way: https://typescripttolua.github.io/

There's also the venerable MoonScript: https://moonscript.org/

And YueScript, a personal fave: https://yuescript.org/doc/

A whole list: https://github.com/hengestone/lua-languages
by tracker1 | 2025-10-02 19:36:21+00:00
I don't think govt run healthcare is the only option... but could serve as a baseline competition if Federal Employees, VA Medical, Medicare/Medicaid were all serviced by an NPO that is govt funded in terms of providing for those federal groups AND allow anyone to buy into a policy as an individual or employer. As an NPO it would provide a baseline for competition and a minimal cost floor with greater negotiating power, that has been artificially limited by the current implementations.

On the Pharma and Devices side, there should be hard FDA requirements for dual sourcing (completely separate ownership structures) and 50% domestic production (for security) as a requirement to even offer medications/devices requiring a prescription in the US.

It could still allow for private competition for better servicing and support without federalizing everything.