MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
Ask HN: Would you pay to gain the ability to create forecasting models?
by juanviera23 | 2025-09-09 18:57:58+00:00
Examples:

1. You’re building a airplane ticket booking platform, and want to offer users forecasts of when ticket prices will go up or down in the next 30 days.

2. You have a retail shop, and want to build an internal dashboard that forecasts how many items of each type you need to buy next week, given how many you sold in the last month

3. You’re building an real estate investment platform, and want it to notify users how real estate prices will change over the next 5 years (given sq. m., distance, location, etc.)

Problem:

You want to add forecasting to the app or platform you’re building

However, you don’t know enough to build and deploy a production-grade ML model

What if you could have a platform that could autonomously train and deploy ML models for you?

Solution:

We propose a vibe coding platform (like https://lovable.dev/ )

To empower everyday users to train and deploy machine learning models to production without needing to know anything about the field

Should we build it?
by RC_ITR | 2025-09-09 18:58:03+00:00
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Mc3z

Manufacturing and mining are becoming much less correlated to the overall jobs market (likely, as you point out, b/c the government smooths the other sectors).

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Mc3I

This is despite being a relatively flat % of employment since 2010 (after a long period of decline).

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Mc4f

As mentioned, there is also the weirdness of SWE's going from 'better than the overall market' to 'worse than the overall market'.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1Mcer

Retail employment is also dislocating.

Those are just the examples I can think of with no research, I'm sure there are others.
by jawns | 2025-09-09 18:58:16+00:00
In class action lawsuits (Rule 23, Federal Rules of Civil Procedure in the U.S.) any settlement must be reviewed and approved by the judge, who has a duty to ensure it is "fair, reasonable, and adequate" for all members of the class. Judges often reject settlements if they appear unfair, too favorable to one side (often the defendant), or if attorney fees seem excessive.
by bombcar | 2025-09-09 18:58:58+00:00
"Housing is an investment" is just a sales tactic that took over and went insane.

It's only really used to justify the humungous loan payments you're willing to take on.

I'd happily take a $1 house if it was guaranteed to never change in value; but it also served my needs.

It's moderately fun to try to figure out what a "healthy" home market would look like - probably something similar to cars; "used" houses should sell for significantly and noticeably less than "new" ones (all things considered). But location and constraints often invert this - the new houses are so far away that they sell for less than the old ones in more favorable locations.

The scary thing is that ONCE you are metrically fuckton in debt, you become exceptionally concerned with the valuations, because once it trends to level or goes under, you're stuck!
by chlodwig | 2025-09-09 18:59:09+00:00
The post I was replying to said that free parental leave would allow parents to "give their best to the economy" and reach their "full potential" at the career. To me that implied American work culture and "greedy jobs." (Google the term, there has been a lot of commentary on it).

From what I understand, most European countries optimize for something like "cozy economic conditions" rather than "maximizing economic potential" so neither my comment or the comment I was replying to would apply Europe. What I have seen in the U.S. is misery resulting from two parents working greedy jobs, like one is a high-powered lawyer, the other is engineer at a startup and then having a baby or 1 year old or two year old in daycare. One is a sales rep, the other is working a political campaign. What do you do when baby is sick and dad has to make sales quota and mom has a deadline for engineering documents that the entire construction project is bottlenecked on? What do you do when both parents need to stay late at the office, one to finish the legal docs big deal, the other to make a product launch deadline? Stress and fights over whose job is the most important results. What if baby is sick and waking up at night every 30 minutes? Who gets to be sleep deprived?

Then you get your kid to preschool which is either paid or free. In this way the mother (who usually has more burden related to breastfeeding etc.) can finally breathe freely. Can she go to work? Yes, and in some Europaen countries she has the right to ask for part work with the current employer, and they can't refuse. A few years later the kid goes to school (again, paid or free) and parents can decide how they organize their lives based on their needs an expectations. If your kid is sick, you can stay with them, and I always assumed this is normal and civilized way, I can't imagine otherwise.

I am curious though, would this job that mom goes back to actually be more "productive" than taking care of a four year-old and two-year old human child?
by creer | 2025-09-09 18:59:09+00:00
"Impossibly thin" is right in line with Patrick McGee's "Apple in China" who argues that the main reason for Apple's designs is to keep imitators at bay by introducing manufacturing challenges that only they can meet. Indeed impossible at the time of release. One generation after the other. He estimates this gains them about 6 months of headway. Tough world.

(Yes, to be fair, there is more to this new phone than just "impossibly thin".)
by nonameiguess | 2025-09-09 18:59:19+00:00
This is going to lead to these abstract discussions of subjective perceptual "productivity" as it always does, but by the actual economic definition of labor productivity, revenue per employee, Microsoft has gone from $143 billion with 163,000 in 2020 ($877,000 per head) to $282 billion with 228,000 ($1.24 million per head) so far this year. They've become the 2nd largest company in the world by market cap, in large part specifically because Microsoft employees are so economically productive.

It says a lot about a team when they win, and instead of rewarding the players that got them the win, they do shit like this.
by Uehreka | 2025-09-09 18:59:29+00:00
I get that it’s fun and stylish to tell people they aren’t aware of their own cognitive biases, but it’s also a difficult take to falsify, which is why I generally have a high bar for people to clear when they want to assert that something is all in people’s heads.

People seem to turn to this with a lot when the suspicion many people have is difficult to verify. And while I don’t trust a suspicion just because it’s held by a lot of people, I also won’t allow myself to embrace the comforting certainty of “it’s surely false and it’s psychological bias”.

Sometimes we just need to not be sure what’s going on.
by thebruce87m | 2025-09-09 18:59:31+00:00
Just looking at the AirPods now and they seem to have new features such as heart rate sensing and live translation at the same price.

> The company has refined the design, added heart rate sensing, improved active noise cancellation (ANC), delivered live translation and more. And most importantly, it did so without increasing the price.

https://www.engadget.com/audio/headphones/apple-airpods-pro-...
by catigula | 2025-09-09 18:59:33+00:00
There's a similar phenomenon in the US when someone talks about "needing to have had built housing", as if this tidal wave of people was just some necessary fact of reality.

This is something that was intentionally done and the argument was had and, agree or not, people didn't want it to happen. It happened anyways. Of course, the policy can be reversed.
by Sporktacular | 2025-09-09 18:59:45+00:00
If other countries give market access to Korean companies, then as a member of the WTO, South Korea's non-reciprocity comes with significant penalties.

This isn't about nimble startups being protected against Google and Apple. It's Naver, Samsung and Kakao Corporations. They sometimes exercise vast power over government and so such decisions are less democratic than oligarchic.

Let's remember that all this protectionism ends up costing consumers. UX design in Korean apps alone sucks so hard, and there's monopolistic pricing for lots of services. Consumers could benefit from alternatives.
by tempfile | 2025-09-09 18:59:50+00:00
> We are lucky that we can afford to do this.

> It doesn't affect our situation at all. Why would we oppose it?

This is rather noble of you, but the reason is obvious. If the playing field were "levelled" then you wouldn't have to be lucky. It is all well and good that you are lucky, but there is a certain population who want to emulate your choice but are unable to, because they are missing precisely the marginal amount that the childcare provision costs. It is a political choice to say that those people should not be able to pursue home-care of the children in order that we can avoid giving out a rebate.
by lazide | 2025-09-09 19:00:18+00:00
When the line goes up, everyone hopes it keeps going up, and tries to figure out a way to profit from that.

One way to stop that, is ensuring the line doesn’t go up. That has some pretty nasty side effects in other ways though.

When the line stops or starts to go down, then bad things happen. People can’t sell and move without losing a ton of money. People go bankrupt, etc, etc.
by ctoth | 2025-09-09 19:00:38+00:00
A lot of us are missing what actually happened here.

Some random person downloaded Huntress to try it out. Not a company. Not through IT. Just clicked "start trial" like you might with any software. Were they trying to figure out how to get around it? We have no idea!

Huntress employees then decided - based on a hostname that matched something in their private database - to watch everything this person did for three months. Their browser history, their work patterns, what tools they used, when they took breaks.

Then they published it.

The "but EDR needs these permissions!" comments are completely missing the point. Yeah, we know EDR is basically spyware. The issue is that Huntress engineers personally have access to trial user data and apparently just... browse it when they feel like it? Based on hostname matches???

Think about what they're saying: they run every trial signup against their threat intel database. If you match their criteria - which could be as weak as a hostname collision - their engineers start watching you. No warrant. No customer requesting it. No notification. Just "this looks interesting, let's see what they're up to."

Their ToS probably says something vague about "security monitoring" but I doubt it says "we reserve the right to extensively surveil individual trial users for months and publish the results if we think you're suspicious." And even if it did, that doesn't make it right or legal.

They got lucky this time - caught an actual attacker. But what about next time? What about the security researcher whose hostname happens to match? The pentester evaluating their product? Hell, what about corporate users whose hostname accidentally matches something in their database?

The fact that they thought publishing this was a good idea tells you a lot. This isn't some one-off investigation. This is apparently? how they operate.
by OkayPhysicist | 2025-09-09 19:00:45+00:00
It's not an allergy to vouchers. It's an allergy to diverting tax payer dollars away from public schools and into subsidizing religious indoctrination centers. There are good religious schools: I've been largely impressed by the Jesuit-run schools I've seen. But most religious private primary and high schools in the US are run by weird little cults that fundamentally fail to meet muster in the whole "not being thinly-veiled excuses for indoctrination" side of things.

Americans are stupid enough without stripping them of what little education we do offer them.
by ryandrake | 2025-09-09 19:01:23+00:00
I think it totally depends on the job. It's like a process running on a CPU. I've seen software development roles that are "batch processes," where the developer goes into a cave to crank through his tasks uninterrupted, and then emerges in a week to deliver the results. And others that are "interactive, event-driven processes," where there is a lot of back and forth between product owners, UX, and other stakeholders, and lots of iteration and refinement. And then there is a whole spectrum in between! One size doesn't necessarily fit all development styles.
by xp84 | 2025-09-09 19:02:12+00:00
> forced disclosure of membership lists

Sure, that sounds bad. But also very different than a mob of masked protestors who feel entitled to anonymous protest.

Protestors should be proud to be there and shouldn't feel the need to hide their identities. Not in this country at least. For all the hysterical comparisons, this isn't Putin's Russia. They aren't just kidnapping random citizens and disappearing them for participating in a protest. On the other hand, during "peaceful protests" when people start destroying the city under cover of the protest, yeah, I do want those people to be arrested and tried.
by mikestew | 2025-09-09 19:02:24+00:00
I’m content to charge every day, but I need the thing to be guaranteed to last the length of a slow mountain 50 miler. Remember the intro of the original Ultra, with Scott Jurek? You know Jurek, won Western States 100 (et al.) a few times? Yeah, well, us mortals sometimes need 12 hours to finish a 50 mile race with lots of elevation or desert heat (or both), and my experience says that I’m not guaranteed to get 12 hours of GPS activity tracking out of the thing without turning down GPS/HR frequency.

I love my Ultra, but for big running I had to go back to Garmin. I can leave the house with it half charged and still get a good 12 hours of running out of it before it dies.

OTOH, I’ve also had a Garmin 945TLE, with a cell radio in it. Fire up that cell radio, and goodbye battery life. I’ll be curious to see how that new Fenix does in the real world with its LTE radio blazing away.
by canucker2016 | 2025-09-09 19:02:31+00:00
They did increase the RAM for the iPhone17 by 50% (8GB -> 12GB [sorry, there was no RAM bump, I was looking at the iPhone17 and iPhone17 Pro page and confused the 17Pro RAM for the 17 RAM amount]) and the 128GB storage option is gone, so the 256GB option is the minimum now, for the same price as the initial iPhone16.
by ksenzee | 2025-09-09 19:02:47+00:00
> I’ve never understood why women are so eager to go work. Work has never been particularly fulfilling

Understandable, but the thing is, staying home with kids is work. It’s a vocation. Everyone should get to choose what work is fulfilling for them personally. In the absence of reliable child care, parents don’t get to make that choice freely. It sounds like in a perfect world, you might have enjoyed staying home with kids, if that seems more appealing than the work you ended up doing. I can tell you I tried it for 18 months and I just about went crazy. I am a much better software developer than I am a stay-at-home parent. I feel for women who don’t get to make choices the way I did.

> are the children actually taken care of?

There is a lot of data by now comparing outcomes for children in childcare versus with stay-at-home parents. Both groups do fine.

> I’m really thankful my mother stayed home with us

It sounds like she did a good job of it; it was probably a vocation for her. You do need to understand that not every woman is cut out for that.
by bombcar | 2025-09-09 19:02:49+00:00
Here's a "kit" for a 1,400 sq ft house: https://www.menards.com/main/building-materials/books-buildi...

$90k for materials.

Around here a 1,400 square goes for $385k (half a house, but there you go).

So materials are somewhere around a quarter of the cost. Land + foundation + utilities is another quarter; the rest is labor and profit.
by jawns | 2025-09-09 19:02:56+00:00
I'm an author, and I've confirmed that 3 of my books are in the 500K dataset.

Thus, I stand to receive about $9,000 as a result of this settlement.

I think that's fair, considering that two of those books received advances under $20K and never earned out. Also, while I'm sure that Anthropic has benefited from training its models on this dataset, that doesn't necessarily mean that those models are a lasting asset.
by thawkth | 2025-09-09 19:03:23+00:00
This 1000x - Aureal and their A3D tech was amazing.

I remember ages ago when it was new, my brother and I were shoveling snow for people to get pocket money to upgrade our PC. We settled on a Turtle Beach Montego II and I adored the thing.

Of course, it was short lived since the update in Windows driver model, and the bankruptcy of Aureal, ended things.

I actually got into retro computing a few years ago and got another Montego II off Ebay cheap and I have to say, the magic is still there.

Frankly, playing something like the original Unreal is my favorite example of a vintage experience that I can't replicate any other way - 3DFX Glide has an aesthetic and responsiveness that's hard to match, analog ps/2 keyboard and mouse with no latency, VGA CRT monitor, Aureal A3D audio with some headphones.

It's a singular experience that is impossible to replicate today. And I love it.
by perihelions | 2025-09-09 19:03:52+00:00
IMSI catchers aren't observing things in plain sight; they're invasive searches that the Fourth Amendment prohibits outside of narrowly-defined circumstances.

The First Amendment precludes protected political speech from being used as a basis for such a search.

The Fourth Amendment further prohibits dragnet searches of indefinite groups of people, such as a protest, because it requires a warrant to "particularly describe" the "persons or things to be seized". (The "Particularity Clause").

I fully agree with your comment in the different case, which is not this case, where government merely passively observes things happening in a public space. IMSI catchers are different; one way being, in that a Stingray *actively interacts with* a device, without authorization, by sending it corrupted packets. (So I understand). A second way being that it violates general social expectations of what's in "public" and what's in "private"; by analogy, if police used laser microphones to listen in on faraway conversations; or in public crowds, used terahertz radiation to look under people's clothes; those are non-public searches, any pedantic interpretations of physics notwithstanding.
by magicalist | 2025-09-09 19:04:05+00:00
> You can receive cash-for-care benefit for children between 13 and 19 months, starting the month the child turns 13 months, up until and including the month the child turns 19 months. You can receive cash-for-care benefits for a maximum of 7 months.

so, no, extremely limited compared to what's being discussed.
by tpxl | 2025-09-09 19:04:08+00:00
> So where is the burner phone kept? It can't be kept at your home - you have to assume its location is being logged. So you have to purchase and store it somewhere besides your house

You can remove the battery, put it in a Faraday cage and charge it turned off (or in another device/out of one). It can be on only when you need it.
by SilverElfin | 2025-09-09 19:04:13+00:00
Deaths are one problem, but they may also not be distributed evenly. Some cities or states have more issues on public transit than others. But also you can still be a victim of assault, harassment, theft, and other issues on public transit. Many of these issues also go unreported or don’t get counted in official stats if not accompanied by a formal police report or whatever. So it doesn’t tell the full story of what people’s real experiences are.
by favoboa | 2025-09-09 19:04:34+00:00
Interesting read that resonates with what I have been doing lately.

I am really glad to see good engineering practices such as linting, proper code architecture, and no network calls in tests, etc. are now paying off by letting agents move faster and more precisely through more automated self-healing loops and more guardrails.

It is also interesting to see that some things that were initially done to simplify human readability of code, such as default imports, may now have a negative impact. I wonder if this could also extend other things such as adding explicit type annotations everywhere instead of relying on implicit ones, or using full variable names instead of `x`, `i` or abbreviations, which are all currently written to optimize human consumption.

I am also curious to learn what the sweet spot is between enforcing rules for humans versus code written for agents. My gut feeling is that it is now time to start optimizing for agents.
by teekert | 2025-09-09 19:05:15+00:00
Same! Though it was some liquid glass distortion of the phone or something.

And then I stared at the line about "remarkable all‑day battery life" and wondered what is so remarkable about that. Anyway... "The new iPhone Air MagSafe Battery has a thin and light design that magnetically attaches to the back of iPhone Air to extend battery life during busier days." So you can always turn it into a normal thickness phone with normal battery life it seems.
by Tadpole9181 | 2025-09-09 19:05:18+00:00
> the Federal Reserve would be forced to raise interest rates

That's just not happening, no matter what happens.

The President is obsessed with lowering rates, because it personally enriches him, regardless of how it affects the economy. The cronies he has in line to replace Powell and the SCOTUS seeming like they'll back his unlawful removal of the Fed governors he doesn't like, means the independence of the Fed is guaranteed dead in, at most, 2026.

The businesses that should be pushing back just... Aren't? 5 billionaires just had a foot-kissing session with Trump. Law firms are capitulating. Most education institutions are capitulating. Companies would rather bribe Trump with gold statues (Apple) for their own short-term kickback than speak up even a tiny bit to prevent a mid-term economic collapse.

I genuinely don't see the US avoiding a self-inflicted (global) depression anymore.
by ianstormtaylor | 2025-09-09 19:05:24+00:00
The way Dropbox has mismanaged Paper over the past decade, and squandered so many opportunities in the productivity tools space, has been one of the most frustrating things to watch.

Dropbox bought Hackpad and launched Dropbox Paper a decade ago!

Paper was awesome at launch — so much less friction than Google Docs for teams back then — and had a good internal product team behind it, but leadership failed to see the potential. I think it's because the Dropbox founders were so consumer-focused that they couldn't envision how huge Paper could be in the productivity tools space. They kept framing it as an Evernote competitor, instead of seeing it turning into something like Notion.

Even when they finally seemed to understand that Dropbox was never going to be a B2C sensation, they kept acquiring "side product" businesses instead of ones that built on Dropbox's existing value. (To their credit, this was the zeitgeist back when they started — B2B was not cool at all, and the sort of B2C/B hybrid that exists now wasn't a thing.)

Meanwhile startups like Notion actually saw the opportunity and blossomed. And nowadays, even super-slow Google is releasing features like pageless mode, markdown support, etc. Such that Paper is almost irrelevant at this point, despite having had such a massive head start.

It's sad because I can easily imagine an alternate future where Dropbox understood what Paper could be, and invested in it alongside things like an Airtable competitor, to create a truly viable, and forward-looking alternative to Google Docs/Sheets/Drive, without all the baggage of being a Microsoft Office clone.