by Nursie | 2025-09-29 06:23:49+00:00
> It has to be tackled even though it won't fix things

Yep, because it has become a public embarassment, it's very present in all the news coverage, and the government have promised to get a handle on the situation but haven't. If they don't get it in hand the press and opposition will continue to use it as a club to beat them with. Like as not this is now a large political issue in the UK. Yougov polls suggest that around 70% of the UK public now have negative views of people crossing in small boats -

https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/WTZfT/3/

But look beyond that (and the generic "people coming to work illegally" category). The support for 'populist bastardry' against the wider category of immigrants drops off substantially. So yes, a government wanting to stay in power in the UK is probably going to have to do something to reduce at least the perception that people are entering the UK this way, but they won't need to follow through and go 'full Farage' to placate a lot of the public.

> because they're doing a surface level reaction

Yes? Have I claimed anywhere that the reactions of the general public in this matter are rational, sensible, moral, or really anything other than misplaced and misdirected anger about the decline of their own circumstances? I think you'll find I even called them "suckers".

Don't mistake me for someone that thinks anything about Reform is reasonable or a good plan. It's fucking shocking.

> it's not a surface take to say what people are actually doing.

That's pretty much the definition of 'surface take' I'd go for. To be other than surface you need to look at motivations and beyond that the actual causes of the behaviour.

The poster I replied to and accused of having a surface take was saying Labour won't win many Farage supporters by tackling the small boats because the supporters are only interested in populist bastardry. Firstly, the figures above show us it's far from only Farage supporters who have views on this specific issue. Secondly, that's not all that Farage supporters are interested in.

For example look at this info on what reform supporters believe - https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/49887-what-do-reform-...

Yes, there is a lot of populist bastardy of the "bring back hanging!" variety in there, including literally that. But there are also signs of wider disaffection and some quite left-wing views -

"Rich people in the UK are able to get around the law or get off more easily than poorer people" "Big businesses in the UK take advantage of ordinary people" "Ordinary working people do not get their fair share of the nation's wealth" "Utilities like energy, water and railways should be run in the public sector" "Rich people in the UK should be taxed more than average earners"

There are likely quite a lot of these people who could be won over to Labour by the government taking a fairly hard line on irregular migration but otherwise pursuing a pretty socialist agenda. Writing them off as only interested in populist bastardry overlooks that there are positive ways they could be brought around.

> If you'd tried to argue that people are liking Reform's plans...

I would be very surprised if most Reform supporters had the first clue what the party's actual plans are, beyond the headline of deporting immigrants.

> So far in this government, that's feeling very a very remote and unlikely future.

I very much agree, which is why I'm coming to the sad conclusion that Farage is quite likely to be the next PM.

tl;dr - Reform support is a symptom of mass disaffection and perceived decline in living standards. But Labour are backed into a corner and have to stop the boats regardless.