by Imustaskforhelp | 2025-09-25 18:03:52+00:00
I had written a original draft of an reply but this conversation is getting really interesting and wanted to write it again lol.

I agree with all the aspects of protein folding / general purpose automation due to "AI" and not LLMs but that was happening before the "AI" hype thanks to OpenAI / chatgpt where so much money was flowing into it...

And I have no issues with them if their prices were baked into realism that they were baked into pre 2022's / whenever chatgpt got launched

My biggest issue which is the crust of this discussion might be that I believe that tech stock prices are roaring so high mostly because of the AI hype that they bring which raises their prices.

Oracle made larry Ellison the richest person for some time due to the stargate project / due to their deal with OpenAI / then larry invested into openai for some hundred billion $ which openai paid back to oracle and oracle's stock price increased more... rinse and repeat?

The thing is, why is oracle which I think is S&P company raising because of their deals in LLM's at an unastronomical rate/ unprecedented rates.

Google/meta/microsoft/amazon are also all integrating AI into their every project / mentiniong AI as much as possible which lets be honest again, is mostly LLM's for the most part.

Yes I know, google has some really interesting non LLM AI projects which I know and love but they were pre 2022 and google's price wasn't as much dictated by those projects as they are doing now y'know?

My conclusion is that A lot of people can't / couldn't invest into OpenAI / thus flowed their money into anything LLM / AI related in the markets... & the companies are loving this and mentioning AI as much as possible

Can we agree on this or not?

I can agree if you think that these companies are investing into infrastructure but that infrastucture is now mostly GPU's which are only really useful for LLM related tasks and becomes redundant for general purpose stuff like running servers for the most part.

Do we agree on this or not?

Also regarding infrastructure, The thing is, That most of them are just packing Nvidia Gpu's which is something that Nvidia also offers and others could do too but yeah, I can get that part but is it an "investment" is questionable...

Its an investment only if LLM's turn out to be profitable.

Firstly the cut throat competition means that literally everyone is competing in it so it cuts each other profits.

Secondly, there are some recent models which are kinda small and could run to a somewhat degree on modern hardware if need be which could satisfy some users needs without having to need that infrastucture

Then again, even if there are some people that might not have that and they search on things like chatgpt. They do it out of freebies that its not gonna cost them that much. And they can switch out if those AI providers do charge them first... with open source models while they themselves ride this end of AI hype.

If you believe that AGI is near, whatever that means, then literally everything I said gets out of the equation but I am assuming you aren't believing that.

Now sure there are gonna be returns but they aren't gonna be nearly as expected. In fact I think that most S&P companies are gonna be in a loss with all of these training of models / building infrastructure. Also, training of models is a recurring cost for the most part if they have to stay SOTA iirc with higher developer's cost working in AI/ML (100 million$ income is provided by the people investing into S&P dude)

So with all of these things, I believe that there is a legitimate concern that the investment isn't worth the return.

Then why are companies investing?

Because of fomo. When the AI hype started thanks to chatgpt. every private equity rushed for similars and that kinda leaked into S&P companies which are doing the same thing with AI hype mentioning it so much.

Do you agree?

If you can agree with all 3 of these statements to a reasonable degree, then I believe that we can agree that we are in an agreement and that it isn't much of an investment as its a way to somehow increase their stock prices by essentially mentioning the word AI and that's all that matters to them in the end, but its all on a proposition that someone is gonna buy the stocks thinking that its gonna go up and so on and so on.. when fundamentally the business model is kinda messed up when you think about it y'know? This is a bubble to me in my definition of it when people are investing into things without caring about things for the most part / logically I suppose...

If we have any disagreements, do let me know so that I can maybe lighten up on some other points as I love talking lol. I am loving it although I feel like I write realllly long sentences but hey, I am writing this to really explore why I believe the things the way I do and if you can convince me then sure, I can be wrong, I usually am.

Have a nice day and looking forward to your next comment!