by fuzzfactor | 2025-07-11 15:08:57+00:00
>Anyone can make math say anything.

OK, I'll give it a try :)

I do think Garry has done good in YC with a worthwhile focus on the financial upside of the startups.

Now that I do the math a little differently, I still think it's quite easy to recognize an innovation multiplier in the 45:1 range. As a preteen. It's good to be motivated and have more ambition than average at a young age.

Maybe that got me started on the road to innovation myself :)

As a greedy youngster playing with margins, you really want multiples instead. That's one of the most mathematically prominent ways to get rich quick. But with maturity comes the appreciation that those who have skyrocketed have usually done so by beating the odds at overwhelming long-shots more so than as a result of their groundbreaking innovation.

If you're not already close to being a billionaire, you're not going to get there any time soon without skyrocketing. There's nothing inherently wrong with these things being motivational. And when you see the way it has been elegantly done quite a few times without greed being the primary motivation, you wouldn't want it any other way.

I would think it's quite likely that every billionaire has more or less about 45 very rich people whom they are associated with, who are all much better off for that very reason.

This type of circle would reinforce consistency with a landscape where a 45:1 figure has been realistically achieved in practice, with real-world examples everywhere you look.

If you do the math though, 45:1 is still the maximum dollar upside, but that can never be completely achieved, much less sustained in a widespread way without somebody eventually running out of money as a result. A lesser functional ratio than 45:1 would be expected to delay the eventuality.

No telling who would run out of money first, there are so many different kinds of wealth for one thing, and simple credit is important otherwise you would just plain run out of currency before the bulk of potential new billionaires would be able to make it very far. I guess they would still be rich even if they never quite made it a full billion. But what would happen to the vast minority?/majority? that are so far from billionaires they can mainly only prosper in terms of the the actual currency of the realm? Credit or not. Whose only hope for survival dollars among large lower rungs, already hinges on having widespread overall across-the-realm prosperity not receding any measurable amount further.

Remember in musical chairs the shortage is not realized until the music stops, regardless of whether it's a DJ or an "invisible hand" of some kind or another that's calling a halt to the fun. And if there's billionaires being minted, why are basic shortages not already better addressed?

For another thing, once a person reaches billion-dollar status, they could only maintain 45:1 if all further money was accumulated from people approximately 45 times richer than themselves.

And it all has to come from innovation alone, it takes a pretty dedicated innovator to consistently carry the weight of 45 others, so that seems like a factor too.

Wouldn't they eventually run out of people like that, and then who else is left?

Just idle conjecture, I know, but it could happen ;)

What's the worst that could occur? You run out of money and run out of the people you need?

Hasn't that always been a possibility, taken place from time to time anyway?