by godelski | 2025-07-23 22:56:46+00:00
I think there are also some good general lessons to learn for the tons of cases like yours.

First, I want to say that I don't think it was all luck. You put in hard work and you made it. I like the saying "the harder I work, the luckier I get." Luck gets you opportunities, work lets you take advantage of them. I say this first because I don't want anyone to read things as saying "you don't deserve it, you just got lucky". Luck doesn't detract.

> getting in at an AI-related SF startup before AI really took off

We spend so much time and effort for finding the best candidates. I think if we look at the history of things, this surprisingly doesn't matter as much as we might think. Huge companies have been built by people who on paper don't look the best. Some of these companies also take off by luck, or what we might call "timing." A lot of what matters is how a team or group works together. A lot of what matters is a candidate's potential, rather than where they are right now.[0]

I want to point this out not to say we should just roll the dice on every person that applies for a job. Rather I say this because like most things in life, there's noise. If we forget about the noise, we're going to be less accurate. Randomness is literally a measurement of uncertainty. While we should try to optimize certainty, we are unable to be absolutely certain. So it requires recognizing the noise if you want to be accurate.

I think we often make a mistake by ignoring noise. Or worse, thinking we've removed it. We don't talk about this as computer engineers, but if you talk to any physical engineer (like a mechanical engineer), or even a machinist, all measurements will include tolerances. That's uncertainty, noise. Without tolerances, designs are not good enough to physically make something. And, the machinists will just make some assumption for you, which you gotta roll the dice if they're going to have too small of tolerances, making your part worthless or overdo your tolerances, making you pay far more than the part should cost. I think it applies to us when programming too.

> My luck surface area is certainly larger now

And I think this is another important part (that can connect to what's been said above). Success gives us more opportunities. Importantly, these compound. Unfortunately, this means luck matters far more earlier on. I think we should recognize this as it plays a huge role when talking about juniors, high schoolers, college graduates, and so on. The difference between two random people starts small, but grows as they progress. If you took the same student and sent them to Standford they'd probably do better than if you sent them to some Cal State. The former is much more likely to give connections and internships while the latter might lead to none, even if the education was exactly the same.

Lastly, I just want to note that Veritasium has a video on luck and success. I think it is worth watching[1]. It's worth pausing the video at points, trying to make predictions about what he will say, and then continuing. Good way to challenge your own biases (or discover them!)

[0] It can be funny when people will spend so much looking for candidates but also say that degrees are worthless. There's probably a lot of these contradicting mindsets we all have (me included).

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LopI4YeC4I