by mrandish | 2025-07-15 19:26:19+00:00
> Maybe a team of 4 that does the work previously done by 10

Interestingly, I heard similar ratios were being discussed (or feared/lamented) in the mid-90s as computer-based non-linear video editing swept the post-production industry and in live TV production as computer-based all-in-one production switcher, effects, titler systems like the Amiga-based Video Toaster disrupted everything. I still remember hearing about how the Toaster was giving unionized TV stations problems because union rules said the switcher guy wasn't allowed to touch the graphics/titling system or the editing system. So three guys would be standing around one chair depending which tab was up on the Video Toaster screen :-).

Having been around the content creation tooling business for so long has given me perspective. Since at least the late 80s it's been one never-ending disruption. And, despite the constant predictions of jobs lost, today there are far more jobs in content creation than there were then. Of course, the job descriptions, types, skills required, divisions of labor and which roles were more or less valuable have never stopped changing and probably won't. Yes, this ends up displacing some people in some roles. Back in the 90s highly-paid senior video engineers with deep expertise in how to wire up and synchronize analog video systems initially laughed at us "young kids" with our "toy" digital video systems. Then they resented needing to call us in to get computer-based gear installed, interfaced and working. Then they resented that us "new kids" were paid less due to being less senior but becoming increasingly essential. Some of them learned the 'newfangled' digital systems while others didn't and opted to retire or do something else.

Over thirty years later, I'm now the highly-compensated "old guy" with once-invaluable expertise that's depreciating by the minute and proven skills at doing increasingly irrelevant things. The particulars change but the theme remains the same, which is why I don't think the shift to integrating AI in content creation will be significantly different. There will be skills that become less valuable and job types that go away and entire industry sectors which get disintermediated but at the same time new kinds of work, industry sectors and business opportunities will emerge in different places and ways. As always, the new job types won't be 1:1 replacements for the old, and this will cause as much angst as it always has. They'll not only look different and have different kinds of trade-offs, they may even have different business and compensation models.

It's Schumpeter's process of "Creative Destruction" and renewal (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Creative_destruction). The destruction part is fast, loud and shocking as what exists today combusts in flame. The creative renewal part tends to be more gradual, unfamiliar and at first may not even seem related. From time to time, even the definition of "the industry" ends up changing along with the jobs and roles. I'm pretty sure the old-school TV station engineers I learned from wouldn't consider a digital nomad working full-time editing 30 second clips on a mobile device for YouTube, Instagram and TikTok influencers as even being "in the TV business."