MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by freehorse | 2025-06-22 08:28:16+00:00
I do not understand what the first tests are supposed to do. The author says the:

> Your hypothesis is: layout influences signup behavior.

I would expect that then the null hypothesis is that *layout does not influence signup behavior*. I would think that then an ANOVA (or an equivalent linear model) to be what tests this hypothesis, where you test the 4 layouts (or the 4 new layouts plus a control?) in one factor. If you get a significant p-value (no multiple tests required) you go on with post-hoc tests to look into comparisons between the different layouts (for 4 layouts, it should be 6 tests). But then you can use ways to control for multiple comparisons that are not as strict as just dividing your threshold by the number of comparisons, eg with Tukey's test.

But here I assume there is a control (as in some for users are still presented the old layout?) and each layout is compared to that control? If I would see that distribution of p-values I would just intuitively think that the experiment is underpowered. P-values from null tests are supposed to be distributed uniformly between 0 and 1, while these cluster around 0.05. It rather seems like a situation that it is hard to make inferences from because of issues in designing the experiment itself.

For example, I would rather have fewer layouts, driven by some expert design knowledge, rather than a lot of randomish layouts. The first increases statistical power, because the fewer tests you investigate, the less you have to adjust your p-values. But also, the fewer layouts you have, the more users you have per group (as the test is between groups) which also increases statistical power. The article is not wrong overall about how to control p-values etc, but I think that this knowledge is important not just to "do the right analysis" but, even more importantly, understand the limitations of an experimental design and structure it in a way that it may succeed in telling you something. To this end, g*power [0] is a useful tool that eg can let one calculate sample size in advance based on predicted effect size and power required.

[0] https://www.psychologie.hhu.de/arbeitsgruppen/allgemeine-psy...
by alkonaut | 2025-06-22 08:28:21+00:00
Bombing government military infrastructure (not terrorist cells or similar) is as clear as it gets.

If this isn’t an act of war then nothing is. And that’s a terrifying thought because that means a single person can start a war without congressional approval. Even impeachment doesn’t help prevent war since it’s after the fact.

What happens if a president orders strikes on a friendly country? It could be due to dementia, narcissistic personality disorder, personal vendettas (hypothetically, in real life I trust the US wouldnt elect that kind of person).
by ant6n | 2025-06-22 08:29:40+00:00
Yes, the bottle Beck for night trains is rolling stock.

The plan is to initially target refurbished standard passenger couches. We have a large research and development consortium to develop the technology and adaptation of coaches.

The refurb itself can be done by many companies, we don’t need a large supplier like Siemens.

As for the ÖBB nightjet, there’s talk about shifting the last ordered nightjet to rail jets (for day travel). Speculation is that the low capacity of the Trainsets result in poor unit economics.
by sksjvsla | 2025-06-22 08:30:37+00:00
It is more trivial than it seems. How did people manage a Postgres instance prior to RDS? Of the entire feature list, what parts of RDS do you use?

1. Dumping a backup every so often?

2. Exporting its performance via Prometheus, and displaying in a dashboard?

3. Machine disk usage via Prometheus?

4. An Ansible playbook for recovery? Maybe kicking that into effect with an alert triggered from bullet 2 and 3.

5. Restoring the database that you backed up into your staging env, so you get a recurring, frequent check of its integrity.

This would be around 100 to 500 lines of code of which an LLM can do for you.

What am I missing?
by cdavid | 2025-06-22 08:31:29+00:00
A/B testing does not have to involve micro optimization. If done well, it can reduce the risk / cost of trying things. For example, you can A/B test something before investing a full prod development, etc. When pushing for some ML-based improvements (e.g. new ranking algo), you also want to use it.

This is why the cover of the reference A/B test book for product dev has a hippo: A/B test is helpful against just following the HIghest Paid Person Opinion. The practice is ofc more complicated, but that's more organizational/politics.
by shusaku | 2025-06-22 08:32:12+00:00
People are just fear mongering to suggest Iran would use them or give them to those who would. The real issue here is that once you have them, you basically entrench yourself as a regional power. If the regime started falling out of favor, all their neighbors would be obliged to come to their aid to protect the nukes. Also, you would be far more limited in how you fight your proxy war. These are the things the involved parties are considering, not Armageddon fantasies.
by user_7832 | 2025-06-22 08:32:38+00:00
I love the concept.

Unfortunately, I hate the implementation.

What’s the deal with payments? Why doesn’t the page load? (Probably too many requests - it should communicate that.)

Can it refer to an auto updating base list/document, a la chatgpt memories or similar? If not, how does it maintain consistency of imputed data over time and across long messages?
by trod1234 | 2025-06-22 08:33:11+00:00
> The job market is broken.

There's no real job market left, its become so distorted from financial engineering that its basically all collapsing without anyone seeing the objective reality until its too late.

> Then if you actually pass and start the job, the standard and quality of work is mediocre at best and you realize what a shit show it actually is.

This is what happens when costs exceed pay, and there being no choices in a non-market. The most competent have options and will withdraw when costs exceed pay. They value their minds and sanity more than the work which isn't available.

This is why within two years of adverse disruption in industry most workers gets severe brain drain. You normally have intelligent and competent people on a team bringing everyone around them up, but when they leave, you basically get what you see with government work where it gravitates to negative production value because anyone working too much is making everyone else look bad.

A lot of this was predicted back in the 1930s by economists.
by nottorp | 2025-06-22 08:33:18+00:00
> Telegram is a walking time bomb with 900 million users' data waiting to be leaked from the servers.

Russia probably has all the Telegram data, considering they officially intervened in the recent Romanian presidential elections taking the side of the local MAGAs.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/telegram-founder-says-h...

What the article doesn't say is they sent a message in romanian to all romanian telegram users with the above claim, signed Durov.

So I don't think their "security" can be trusted.
by throwaway2037 | 2025-06-22 08:33:36+00:00
What are your primary languages? Even in 2025, C & C++ debuggers are light years ahead of 15 years ago. And Java / DotNet debuggers are mind-blowing they are so good, plus "memory corruption" isn't possible (that I know) in vanilla code that runs in a VM. I almost never bother with your techniques anymore.
by stingraycharles | 2025-06-22 08:38:01+00:00
Yeah, security really is an afterthought with most of these tools, but man the community is moving insanely fast — probably because most of these people are using these automation tools to develop their MCP servers in the first place.

It’s interesting to see other tools struggling to keep up. ChatGPT supposedly will get proper MCP client support “any day now”, but I don’t see codex supporting it any time soon.

Aider is very much struggling to adapt as well, as their whole workflow of editing and navigating files is easily replaced by MCP servers (probably better as well, as it provides much effective ways of reducing noise vs signal), so it’ll be interesting to see how tools adapt.

I’d love for Claude Code (or any tool for that matter) to fully embrace the agentic way of coding, e.g. have multiple agents specialize in different topics and some “main” agent directing them all. Those workflows seem to be working really well.
by csa | 2025-06-22 08:38:19+00:00
> what we've gotten the last decade has been taxi and hotel apps. Nothing truly revolutionizing.

I’m not sure where you are from, but this is not my perspective from Northern California.

1. Apps in general, and Uber in particular, have very much revolutionized the part-time work landscape via gig work. There are plenty of criticisms of gig work if/when people try to do it full time, but as a replacement for part time work, it’s incredible. I always try to strike up a conversation with my uber drivers about what they like about driving, and I have gotten quite a few “make my own schedule” and “earn/save for special things” (e.g., vacations, hobby items, etc.). Many young people I know love the flexibility of the gig apps for part-time work, as the pay is essentially market rate or better for their skill set, and they get to set their own schedule.

2. AirBnB has revolutionized housing. It’s easier for folks to realize the middle class dream of buying an house and renting it out fractionally (by the room). I’ve met several people who have spun up a a few of these. Related, mid-term rentals (e.g., weeks or months rather than days or years) are much easier to arrange now than they were 20 years ago. AirBnBs have also created some market efficiency by pricing properties competitively. Note that I think that many of these changes are actually bad (e.g., it’s tougher to buy a house where I am), but it’s revolutionary nonetheless.
by PJDK | 2025-06-22 08:38:33+00:00
I don't know for sure (not in that world) but wouldn't this make sense from a compartmentalisation perspective?

You have a person that knows X and a person that knows Y, but knowing both X and Y is vastly more valuable. To keep things secure you ban the X group from knowing about Y things regardless of how they found out.

It's going to produce absurdities sometimes, but the basic principle makes sense.
by nottorp | 2025-06-22 08:38:39+00:00
I've just been the target of some spam "campaign" on my own email server. By the time I was annoyed enough to block some IPs and add a custom spamassassin rule for them, they had already stopped. It lasted two days.

Other than that it looks like I get like 4 spams per week.

Mind, i don't publish my email anywhere. If you look at my profile on here you'll get a gmail address.
by A1kmm | 2025-06-22 08:38:58+00:00
To side-track on your soup company analogy...

For almost all businesses these days, distribution (getting customers to know about your product and have access to it) is much harder than actually creating the product.

There are gatekeepers to getting audience - whether it is is supermarkets, search engines, big players in the ad tech industry, well established websites, and traditional media. And they all see profitability of businesses benefiting from them for distribution as money left on the table.
by nine_k | 2025-06-22 08:38:59+00:00
Not "happy", but Iran was quite a bit more sober, not hostile towards Israel, and relatively secular.

(Similarly, China under Deng Xiaoping was not a paragon of political freedom at all, but it was quite a bit more sober than under Mao Zedong. The US administration had tons of shortcomings under president Biden, but it was in quite a bit less of disarray than under president Trump.)
by cdavid | 2025-06-22 08:39:19+00:00
SVD/eigendecomposition will often boil down to making many matmul (e.g. when using Krylov-based methods, e.g. Arnoldi, Krylov-schur, etc.), so I would expect TPU to work well there. GMRES, one method to solve Ax = b is also based on Arnoldi decomp.
by ant6n | 2025-06-22 08:39:35+00:00
You start off by essentially claiming the unit economics of night trains being too poor compared to aviation is the largest hurdle, then finish off by claiming that unit economics are not that major issue.

Our perspective is that with much improved unit economics, the problem overall becomes much more easily solvable. You can compete with aviation on price. You can pay for prioritized track access. You can operate trains privately without direct involvement of national operators.

Finally, the refurb approach skirts the rolling stock bottle neck.
by impossiblefork | 2025-06-22 08:41:29+00:00
I think my own thought isn't 'what they're doing is wrong' but 'what they're doing is dangerous'.

Thus in my view it kind of doesn't matter whether what they're doing is right or wrong, and the sensible goal is to simply prevent the dangerous stuff without necessarily judging them. Thus limited bombings focused on nuclear enrichment plants, rather than some wider campaign.

The problem as I see it is that it may not work, and that nuclear bomb development might be quite easy.
by roughly | 2025-06-22 08:41:34+00:00
Again, I’d encourage you to stop thinking you’re dealing with people fundamentally different than you, and start considering why they’re acting the way they’re acting. You’ve referenced Palestinian fighters a couple times - I’d suggest the lens that these are fundamentally a different kind of people is probably going to tell you less about the current situation and how to change it for the better than the other lens, which is that these people are fundamentally human like you, and if you’re seeing extreme behavior, there’s probably extreme circumstances driving it.

To be clear, I’m not saying this to justify extreme or violent behavior, but to consistently act surprised when people act “irrationally” is to suggest either your definition of rational is wrong or your understanding of the circumstances are wrong. As the old joke goes, you can’t blame the mouse when the experiment fails.
by happymellon | 2025-06-22 08:41:51+00:00
> Windows 10 and 11 have great desktops.

We will have to just agree to disagree on that one.

Windows 10 reverted back to a warmed over 7, but with flashy boxes to add noise, and the injection of adverts over time.

The multi-desktop implementation was half baked, and when applications request focus you can end up with an unresponsive desktop until you find it.

11 is an interface that only a mother could love. Pointless changes like centering the bar make me wonder if you ever used it. It's a step back in every way, but without a guts to try something different like 8.

8 didn't work for laptops/desktops, but at least there was an attempt.
by throwaway2037 | 2025-06-22 08:42:08+00:00
Hat tip: Great follow-up. I asked Google AI about those visa types and it told me:

> F, M, and J visas are all nonimmigrant visas for foreign nationals seeking to study or participate in exchange programs in the United States.

Tangent: US must have 5x the number of visa types compared to most other highly developed nations. Whenever there is a US visa discussion on HN, I always learn about a few more types! Plus they have all sorts of weird carve-outs for various nations: Looking at you Australia and Singapore.
by protocolture | 2025-06-22 08:42:43+00:00
Netanyahu has warned that Iran is minutes away from the bomb for the last 30 years. Trumps own intelligence community was telling us that Iran is incapable of producing a bomb just a week or so ago.

Death to America is a great motto, but that's all it really is, they sadly lack the capability to follow through with it. With or without these latest strikes.
by KnightSaysNi | 2025-06-22 08:43:17+00:00
> Every side has an ordained right to blow the others off the face of the planet.

What? Israel is 2000 Kms away from Iran, and would want nothing do to with them if not for Iran's "Death to Israel" slogan and policy...

> Do they?

The IAEA declared Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations, hardly a "bullshit made-up excuse"
by Simon_O_Rourke | 2025-06-22 08:43:25+00:00
That's an all around bad move for the US. Getting dragged into an Israeli war and probably having to carry the can for the next few years alone after getting into a mess not of our own making (well directly anyway).

This is going to hit gas prices, the markets and US security considerations all in order to help keep the current Israeli leadership out of Israeli prisons. Bad move.
by dlahoda | 2025-06-22 08:44:23+00:00
it took nk 40+ years to get nukes. is this definion of inching?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Korea_and_weapons_of_m...

also you say nk uses nukes as deterrent, deterrent from whom? if they deterred any, they were fine deterring it for 40+ years without.
by mft_ | 2025-06-22 08:45:38+00:00
Totally agree. This is an exceptionally frustrating dark pattern. Anyone that uses it not only doesn’t deserve my money or support; they also deserve opprobrium.

(It’s not really HN‘s job, and it will probably never happen, but wouldn’t it be interesting if for every Show HN users could flag aspects of the design which would appear alongside the post title – like free vs. subscription, open source or not, presence of dark patterns, etc.)
by kristoff200512 | 2025-06-22 08:46:33+00:00
For so many of us, it’s the ultimate dream: to create a sprawling 2D RPG. A world born from our imagination, filled with memorable characters, hidden secrets, and a story that players will carry with them long after they’ve put the controller down. It’s a dream inspired by the classics we grew up with and the modern indie masterpieces we love.

But that dream often crashes into a wall of reality. Where do you even start? The path from a blank screen to a living, breathing world can feel overwhelmingly complex.

It doesn't have to be.

With the power of the Unity engine and a curated set of a resources, that dream is closer than you think. This isn't just a list of links; it's a practical roadmap. Let's build your game, one step at a time.
by mandmandam | 2025-06-22 08:47:41+00:00
> we usually profit from wars

That's a huge lie, if 'we' is to be read as 'Americans' and not 'the 1%'.

78% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck [0].

'We' - taxpayers - 'spent' trillions and trillions of dollars on war in the middle east. What was the return on investment? We could have housed every American, eliminated student debt, gone 100% clean energy, and ended world hunger; with change left over.

0 - https://www.forbes.com/advisor/banking/living-paycheck-to-pa...
by anonzzzies | 2025-06-22 08:47:50+00:00
We have been sued over signed contracts many times over the 3 decades we are in business. Almost only by US companies, but well, shitty for them, Dutch judges (and lawyers) rather laugh about those overbearing things in those contracts. We don't even need a lawyer before we sign them as we know they are worth nothing here. And that's been tested many times now. Fyi; we didn't break them; it's just that we are tech troubleshooters-for-hire and we work for many companies (1000s) over time; the suing is always the paranoid delusions were the contract states we cannot provide our services for any competitors of them or even companies that are not competing but in the same market forever and ever. F offfff. But yeah, it costs them a lot of money and we are insured for it (which is cheap compared); we don't waste any time or money on this.
by ant6n | 2025-06-22 08:48:02+00:00
Well, you cannot assume ergonomics from renderings. That’s why we run extensive testing. We tested on a large range of people. In the pods there’s a fall off in perceived comfort around the 95th percentile. Even then, the feedback is overall quite good.

In the larger pods, there’s actually an uptick in evaluation for taller people. Testers were often surprised how well it works.

All beds have at lest 2m, although there are different degrees of becoming smaller at the foot end — just like in aviation business class (with ticket prices 1.5 orders of magnitudes higher).
by elcritch | 2025-06-22 08:48:30+00:00
> end up like Libya, Syria or any other country Israel considers a threat.

You imply here that those countries woes are primarily due to Israel. They are not.

Syria was embroiled and toppled by Islamic Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham backed by Turkey. Libya was due to civil war. Several of these conflicts were funded by Iran as well.

You can go down the list. Please study at least some basics on the region.

> So thinking Iran will simply nuke Israel because it has that capability is silly - it would mean mutual destruction.

One would hope, but if Allah is protecting them why would they need to fear retaliation? Theocracies can be unpredictable. Also they could provide dirty bombs to their proxies in the region.
by ozgrakkurt | 2025-06-22 08:48:53+00:00
All the discussion about who is right, wo would win etc. aside. Israel should be a big wakeup call to muslim countries. With so little population and surrounded by so many hostile countries, they manage to be so strong and be able to defend themselves.

It is a big shame that many muslim countries are under dysfunctional governments and struggling to make progress so they can’t even protect themselves.

Personally I don’t agree with any kind of war but it is not realistic to expect everything to be fine while fighting inside your country, with a backwards mindset, discussing religion etc. not working honestly and expecting to prosper.
by protocolture | 2025-06-22 08:49:46+00:00
>Anyone paying money for a homemade bar will test it first.

There's a pretty lively market in gold on ebay. Often forged into bars or coins by end users.

I have personally dealt with retail gold buyers who legally clear gold of all sorts with little question. They pay based on purity and likely have a price for whatever purity the horde gold is smelted at.

There's also that Singapore Gold Port at the Singapore Airport. Even if they wont touch you directly, there are IIRC, in person trades in the airport which can then be deposited straight into storage.
by KaiserPro | 2025-06-22 08:50:58+00:00
india/pakistan whitter on about it all the time. As did the french/english.

But, if you were near to a country that was busily invading neighbours, run by religious zealots, a huge military had a history of using allies to attack you and is obviously illegally playing with nuclear bombs what would you do?

The problem is, that describes both iran and israel.
by throwaway2037 | 2025-06-22 08:52:27+00:00
You raise an interesting point about inland population centers. My guess: Household daily water usage is a tiny fraction compared to Ag. As a result, at some point, I assume that states will slowly raise the cost of Ag water, until the most wasteful practices disappear. Example: They could move to drip irrigation that Israel uses, but it must at least 10x more expensive.
by kubb | 2025-06-22 08:53:51+00:00
It just a counterexample that helps me point out that your simplistic and unsupported claim should not be taken at face value.

There is a lot to be said about the practice of overusing the GDP metric, but in this case reminding everyone that the burden of proof is on you should be enough.

I don’t appreciate your analogy, and it strikes me as false.
by majormajor | 2025-06-22 08:55:38+00:00
The fraction of A/B tests I've seen personally that mentioned ANOVA at all is very small. Or thought that critically about experiment design. Understanding of p values is also generally poor; prob/stat education in engineering and business degrees seems to be the least-covered-or-respected type of math.

Even at places that want to ruthlessly prioritize velocity over rigor I think it would be better to at least switch things up and worry more about effect size than p-value. Don't bother waiting to see if marginal effects are "significant" statistically if they aren't significant from the POV of "we need to do things that can 10x our revenue since we're a young startup."