MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by klipt | 2025-06-22 02:54:59+00:00
How much plausible deniability would Iran have if they gave a nuke to Hezbollah who fired it over the border at Tel Aviv?

"That was Hezbollah, not us!"

You might say using a proxy would be a hopelessly transparent ploy, but Hezbollah has been firing other Iranian supplied weapons at Israel for years and yet many people swear up and down that Iran has "never attacked Israel". So apparently the proxy ploy does work on a lot of people.
by danenania | 2025-06-22 02:55:45+00:00
They “could have” had nuclear weapons for a long time if they’d wanted to, yes, but they didn’t get them. They signed the NPT, allowed inspections, and their ruler issued a fatwa against developing nuclear weapons. Why’d they do all that if their goal all along was to get a nuclear weapon? They could have just done it.

These attacks make it clear that they would have been better off if they had gotten them, so it seems reasonable to assume this will be their new policy. What other strategic choice have they been left with?
by Dylan16807 | 2025-06-22 02:56:27+00:00
> That's a simply incorrect answer.

Okay, how small of a connection would they have to restrict him to for me to be correct?

> BESS, simple curtailment at peak hours, or angle diversity would solve the problem.

That much extra curtailment is a major problem. That much extra angle diversity hurts output. Batteries are a workaround for not being able to properly hook up the panels.
by tiffanyh | 2025-06-22 02:56:34+00:00
Yes, bunker buster was used. Per a different source:

> It included a strike on the heavily-fortified Fordo nuclear site, according to Trump, which is located roughly 300 feet under a mountain about 100 miles south of Tehran. It's a move that Israel has been lobbying the U.S. to carry out, given that only the U.S. has the kind of powerful "bunker buster" bomb capable of reaching the site. Known as the GBU-57 MOP (Massive Ordnance Penetrator), the bomb can only be transported by one specific U.S. warplane, the B-2 stealth bomber, due to its immense 30,000 pound weight.

https://www.npr.org/2025/06/21/nx-s1-5441127/iran-us-strike-...
by twothreeone | 2025-06-22 02:57:38+00:00
Wikipedia points to a source that says it is used for parts of a multi-stage fusion bomb:

> Uranium with enrichments ranging from 40% to 80% U-235 has been used in large amounts in U.S. thermonuclear weapons as a yield-boosting jacketing material for the secondary fusion stage

Source: http://nuclearweaponarchive.org/Nwfaq/Nfaq6.html#nfaq6.2
by akoboldfrying | 2025-06-22 02:58:06+00:00
Yes! (Correct) pre-registration is everything. ("Correct" meaning: There's no point "pre-registering" if you fail to account for the number of tests you'll do -- but hopefully the fact that you have thought to pre-register at all is a strong indication that you should be performing such corrections.)

That said, I agree with the other poster here about how important this really is for startups. It's critical to know if the drug really improves lung function; it's probably not critical to know whether the accent colour on your landing page should be mauve or aqua blue.
by selcuka | 2025-06-22 02:58:59+00:00
> If Iran has nukes, then a nuke race will start in the middle East

A fair concern, but it is interesting that although "estimates of Israel's stockpile range between 90 and 400 nuclear warheads" [1], we are not concerned about those warheads as much as we do about the ones Iran might have. Should US bomb Israeli nuclear plants? No. Should they have bombed the Iranian ones? Why?

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_Israel
by tiew9Vii | 2025-06-22 02:59:08+00:00
It looks like junior developer applies for junior roles, companies don't want juniors, insert "we want at least 10 years experience in [insert latest fad]". Of the two companies she got face time with, one took the chance, is happy with the skills and deemed her competent as passed the three month probation.

The job market is broken. Half these companies flex their own egos in the interviews/hiring, make you jump through so many hoops with ridiculous tests detached from the reality of your day to day work. Then if you actually pass and start the job, the standard and quality of work is mediocre at best and you realise what a shit show it actually is.
by roughly | 2025-06-22 02:59:18+00:00
> I expect a major US city to have a nuke set off in it by Iran within the next 5 years.

This absolutely will not happen. Iran will make a nuke, and they will test it very publicly, and then the political math in the Middle East changes overnight. The point of a nuclear bomb for a country like Iran (or Pakistan, or North Korea) is deterrence, not attack - if Iran set off a nuke in an American city, the regime would not survive, and it’s possible the country would not.

Edit: to put that differently, the only way an Iranian bomb goes off in an American city is if an American bomb goes off in an Iranian city.
by 1659447091 | 2025-06-22 02:59:20+00:00
> The stated reason is that they were close to having nuclear weapons

No the US was claiming: "We continue to assess Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and that Khamenei has not reauthorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003, though pressure has probably built on him to do so." in it's 2025 Threat Assessment. The reports believes they were not working on them and Khamenei has the final authority to restart the program which he had not done. However, they believe there was growing pressured to do so.

Trump just gave the guy reason to green light a weapons project he had so far not wanted.

[pdf] https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-202...
by r14c | 2025-06-22 03:00:03+00:00
I really don't understand why the US didn't continue their talks with Iran. They were clearly open to joining a non-proliferation treaty at the time. They also have a religious law against developing nukes in addition to their other tentative agreements and cooperation with IAEA.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ali_Khamenei%27s_fatwa_against...

I don't expect Iran to use any nukes that they develop though. Having nukes puts a country in a special diplomatic class. Using them is almost never beneficial. The status quo risks for nuclear programs is stronger sovereignty, which would drastically shift the regional balance of power and possibly tip the scales on a broad international level.
by p3_1080 | 2025-06-22 03:00:41+00:00
The pink tint of the left-hand projections near the bottom of the article is actually the film print itself shifting colors due to (relatively mild, in this particular case) vinegar syndrome, which can happen when film prints are stored over long periods in relatively warm (unrefrigerated) conditions. This color shift is all down to the individual film print and really has nothing to do with a given projector itself — but until this project I believe there haven't been film projectors that can compensate for color-shifting on-the-fly (projectionist and programmer in a space that regularly screened 16mm & 35mm prints for about a decade). Now, instead of throwing one's hands up when trying to project a color-shifted print, films can be projected and possibly preserved/digitized in something closer to their original state. For the film preservation field, this project feels quite important and could signal a major shift in the way the field operates.
by trhway | 2025-06-22 03:02:30+00:00
no boots on the ground and more moderate goals. The current state of Iraq - severely corrupt moderately religious not threatening anybody kleptocracy would be a success here. Not threatening is the key - Iran has been behind sectarian violence in Iraq, behind Hamas, Hezbollah and Houthis, helping Assad, ... one can see that Iran's regime should have already been taken out yesterday just in order to advance peace in the Middle East.

Note - no boots on the ground wouldn't be a big limitation because in case of say ethnic violence, with Azerbaijani and Persian being the largest groups, or even just great social chaos, Turkey and Azerbaijan, are, as far as i understand, ready to bring their armies into the Iran's Azerbaijani populated provinces, which would leave Persians, who are many don't like that "Arab's Islam", in their provinces to their own devices, probably even restoring the monarchy with the Shah's son, which again would be a good outcome here.
by PeterHolzwarth | 2025-06-22 03:02:44+00:00
I don't think this makes much sense, due to the scale of the two parties: Iran somehow figuring out how to get a nuke onto a US city would invite complete and total annihilation of Iran -- and the world would largely support it. Iran knows this.

Nukes among peers aren't there to be used. They are there to immobilize and freeze a layer of conflict.
by dralley | 2025-06-22 03:03:00+00:00
Also anything that is dangerous enough to actually be scary in dirty bomb form, like Cobalt-60, would be impossible to handle without providing a lethal dose of radiation to anyone working with he material within minutes if not seconds (presumably a reasonablely large & dangerous amount of this material is involved). At least, not without incredibly expensive equipment. And by the time you factor in those prerequisites it's just not worth it.
by never_inline | 2025-06-22 03:03:12+00:00
> “taken together, they strongly indicate that Óðinn, although not exactly the same as the god that we know from the Nordic sources, has roots reaching far back in time, probably as early as the Indo-European era

A reader might be interested in Kris Creshaw's "The One-eyed god" which reiterates Odin's similarities with other Indo-european analogues, specifically Apollo and Vedic Rudra.

Indeed, much of the Odin's acts and characteristics find similarities in the deeds of Rudra or Indra in Vedic myth. The Vedics even had a conception of afterlife similar to Valhalla, where the most excellent people and fallen warriors reach Indra's realm, carried by Apsaras.

Indra is also god of sacred verse, "vipratamo kavinam", which is similar to odin mastering the runes, giving a dual priest-king and warrior king function.

The efficacy of "several great deeds" is emphasized for both. Eg: The Havāmal: "140. word following word, I found me words, deed following deed, I wrought deeds.". The Rig Veda (1.101.4) - Praised, he is firm at every deed of his.
by YZF | 2025-06-22 03:03:54+00:00
This doesn't sound right to me. Sources?

One data point I heard recently was 80% of Iranians oppose the current regime. That said I've also heard there is wide support for Iran to have a nuclear program. Presumably as a matter of national pride. I would still imagine the secular population to be less inclined to go to war with Israel in general.

The only Iranians I've personally talked to are ones that live in the west. They generally want to have peace with Israel and want to see the regime removed. Again very anecdotally they are still not happy about Israel bombing Iran but if the regime is actually somehow magically removed I don't think attacking Israel would be a high priority for a hypothetical secular or democratic regime.
by ilamont | 2025-06-22 03:04:14+00:00
Former 35mm projectionist here (see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=35887809). I also worked with 16mm projectors and cameras as a student.

It's cool to see that people are still interested in this media, and trying to fix a number of problems. There are a couple things about this proposal that are admirable, such as switching to dimmable LEDs and open-source/3D printable parts.

I also liked the bit about not trying to reinvent the wheel ("We believe that especially the central mechanical elements of the old projectors – claw mechanism, shutter wheel and film transport - are in most cases so well engineered that a new development here would be a waste of time and energy.") But what follows is an extensive list of new specs that would make the project vastly more complex.

16mm/35mm is already fading, with a finite population of prints that dwindles every year as film deteriorates or reels are lost/destroyed. Some of the technical features ("Manual vario-speed from < 1 to 30 FPS") are a niche within a niche. Really, how many artists or experimental studios are there who want to play back a 16mm print at .75 FPS? Who would watch them?

This project would be far more realistic if such features were scaled back and the focus was on getting a bare-bones, open source projector that works with 16mm optical film (the majority of existing stock) as well as some of the low-hanging fruit on the list. I think is doable. Low cost, simple plastic film projectors were once a thing with another type of film (Super 8, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_8_film)

If hard stuff is added to the list, at least focus on practicality for a wider range of people, such as a tool to safely evaluate print quality before playback at normal speeds or some sort of print cleaning mechanism for reels that have been sitting in someone's basement for 30 years.
by ExaltedPunt | 2025-06-22 03:04:21+00:00
> Trump wasn't against war, as demonstrated by his calling Putin's aggression "genius"

I think I know what statement you are referring to and it wasn't an endorsement of war.

Recognising someone for doing something well even if it is amoral/immoral, isn't an endorsement of person or action.

e.g.

I don't like George Galloway or how he operates as a politician, nor do I like his politics, or his policies. I personally think that he is a scumbag.

However he is a very effective politician and his strategies, tactics and his communication skills are second to none. He is very good at chewing out BBC presenters which is pure Schadenfreude.

> He was just generally critical of anything the US did, because fundamentally he hates our country

You are making a similar mistake. Being critical of your own country doesn't mean that you hate it.

I live England. I am English. I love England. Do I hate a lot of things about my country currently? yes I do. Do I hate the country? no I don't (mostly).
by gsf_emergency_2 | 2025-06-22 03:04:50+00:00
Let's see if Ilan, being thoroughly Berkeley-bred, will be able to fight the 2 predominant forms of (emergent, not emerging) akrasia in the UK:

The (Edwardian) liberal, who tolerates The Grauniad, & the (neo/classical) liberal, who tolerates the FT
by selcuka | 2025-06-22 03:07:18+00:00
Unless someone else makes an equivalent product and sell it for $14/year, and every user switches to the new product, this statement is moot. A product justifies its price tag as long as people are willing to buy it at that price.

Revenue optimisation is a different concern. Would they sell more if they priced it at $10? Maybe. Would the total revenue ($10 * number of users) be higher than now? Maybe not. There is a local maxima and it appears that they calculated this to be ~$15.
by vel0city | 2025-06-22 03:07:32+00:00
I mean, it's true Montana and Maine and what not are colder than most highly habited areas of Norway and what not, but at the same time the extreme majority of the US population isn't in Montana or Maine. And even then, it's still possible to operate an EV well in such conditions, but just like with a gas car you might need special considerations to safely operate them in the extreme cold. And maybe they should be better about selling EVs better tuned to the cold.

A massive chunk of the US population wouldn't have any cold related struggles to EV adoption. Nobody is really losing a massive amount of range in Phoenix or Houston or Dallas or Atlanta or San Francisco or LA or Raleigh or Austin or Oklahoma City or Kansas City or Nashville or Tallahassee or San Antonio or Asheville or Richmond or...

EVs are fine for massive chunk of residential car owners. Not everyone, sure, but a massive percentage. Most suburban households could easily make their next car an EV without a hassle.
by YZF | 2025-06-22 03:08:48+00:00
Iran and Libya are very different places both in terms of history and current day.

I would expect Israel to win the political battle as well. The world likes winners and Israel is going to be a winner here. It winning will also enable it to address some of the issues that are a concern. Without Iran backing up Palestinian militants it is going to be easier for Israel to make some concessions that it couldn't otherwise.

You can already see a change of tone in Europe. Especially that Iran is aligned with Russia against Ukraine.
by grues-dinner | 2025-06-22 03:09:15+00:00
Unlikely, since you can quite happily buy two-prong power supplies.

And most packaged modules don't even have ground connections, e.g. https://www.tracopower.com/sites/default/files/products/data...

You're also confusing the Y designation, which relates to the capacitor properties, to the application. Not all Y capacitors are used for line-to-ground applications. However any application where a failure to a closed state would result in a shock hazard must use Y-rated capacitors.
by gh02t | 2025-06-22 03:09:19+00:00
Yeah, my point is there are much better options that would also induce fear and actually be effective. Fentanyl strapped to an explosive, or any of a ton of other chemical agents. Iran would do far more damage -- and create a deep source of fear that would likely have lingering consequences for decades -- by giving their HEU away rather than making an ineffective dirty bomb. There is no way anybody who knows what they had would use it that way. Even the most fanatical member of the Iranian regime understands what to do with the material better than that.
by gsf_emergency_2 | 2025-06-22 03:09:29+00:00
Sad. Of the ones listed in the table, I pay most attention (if any at all) to Slow Boring because the writing is confusing (or, confused, it's hard to tell :)

Iglesias seems to be onto (or on?) something

https://www.slowboring.com/p/a-rawlsian-case-for-smallness
by nullhole | 2025-06-22 03:10:16+00:00
> “Every time anyone says that Israel is our only friend in the Middle East, I can’t help but think that before Israel, we had no enemies in the Middle East.” — John Sheehan, S.J.

Before Israel? Like before 1947? When half the place was under British rule and the oil industry was a fraction of what it was today?

That's about as useful as saying that before the atomic bomb, we had no enemies in the Middle East.

What a dishonest way to make such an inflammatory accusation.
Unfucking Deep Research for People
by aksh_goark | 2025-06-22 03:10:44+00:00
Deep research sucks for people research. I'm trying to build a product that does deep research for people specifically.

The goal is: Do deep research -> turn it into bite size swipeables, like insta reels but just text blurbs about something interesting. This could be super useful for coffee chats, dates (I imagine it would be the API that the cluely launch vid https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rz3LD7u2KX8 dating people search.)

I wanna discuss novel, out of the box approaches to doing this.

Here are all the ideas I've come up with:

What makes it complex is:

1) People can have same names so articles on internet may not exist 2) Classifying "interesting" things about people.

a) The obvious approach is to use LLMs but even if the cost of the LLMs go down, the rate limits arent going to go down and the volume of links to crawl for truly interesting insights of people limits this.

b) (not a promo), using hierchical text classification with https://www.trytaylor.ai/

Ig the logic is, the more the buckets of info that a specific sentence fills, the more "interesting/dimensional" it is.

Current flow i'm thinking about is:

1) Get the first 20 search results of the person and scrape, (ud be surprised how much info this gives on a person if you know how to use it well).

2) Scrape (if some websites like linkedin are hard, use brightdata, if youtube then get transcript).

3) Have a person fact store -> Simple Array.

Assume I know that John is the person I wanna find and he has a linkedin.

Since I have his linkedin, my person fact store will have the following details:

[ 1) Profile Pic 2) JP morgan Internship 3) UPenn Bachelors ]

etc.

4) Data Validation.

Solving the problem of matching names.

Lets say I now go and find an article about John but I dont know if this is the john that its referring to.

Lets say the article is:

John the JP morgan intern likes sushi.

There are two approaches here

a) I know his profile pic so try to see if theres a match with his linkedin pfp and this one. If the pic in the article matches, then we can append the fact that he likes sushi. So this enriches our array.

OR

b) I know that he is a JP morgan intern from our ground truth, so we can assume sushi pref is also true.

5) Running it through https://www.trytaylor.ai, im trying to get access to product but their auth is fucked, I literally can't use it rn.

Essentially it would classify all this information that I collected into buckets and sub-buckets.

Narrow it down to the top 5% of results that fit a certain criteria since I now have the tags for this.
by handfuloflight | 2025-06-22 03:10:56+00:00
Did I say they all believed in the same thing? I would not make such an absurd claim when Christianity itself is so fractured.

Take it up with the sources listed in these articles:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/oct/30/us-evangelical...

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/lseupr/2025/02/07/the-politics-of-ap...

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2018/05/14/h...

https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1197956512

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christian_Zionism

You are clearly ignorant of what views come under the heading of the evangelicals.
by PeterHolzwarth | 2025-06-22 03:11:41+00:00
Well put, and an important - and often either overlooked or fully unknown - point, especially in the west.

Many in the west see the middle east as a broadly similar unit, not realizing that there Iran represents a frequently highly-disliked section in the broader area. The neutralization of Iraq definitely has had an impact on that front as well (the two being hard core enemies for a long time).
by lwansbrough | 2025-06-22 03:12:16+00:00
> But of course, the U.S. can do whatever it wants because of its military might and the fact that it has nukes.

Yes. Do not proliferate nuclear weapons. It’s not a big ask.

> you’d better be close friends with someone who has nukes

This is a completely acceptable and reasonable solution. It is how most of Europe operates.
by hearsathought | 2025-06-22 03:12:18+00:00
Imagine if Putin got Trump to bomb ukraine for him. Imagine if Xi got Trump to bomb Taiwan for him. There would be a crisis in this country as the media would be attacking trump for being a stooge to a foreign power.

How is it possible that a foreign leader, Netanyahu ( who has lied in the past to get us to attack iraq ), can get Trump to bomb Iran and nobody, especially in the media, bats an eye.

The media is focused on the bombing, but shouldn't the focus be on foreign control over much of the US government? After years of soul searching over the iraq fiasco and the lies can we still be in this position again?
by rixed | 2025-06-22 03:13:02+00:00
> Because we often lack the tools to challenge these structural problems at their root through collective action (...) we tend to interpret these structural problems through a purely individual, moralistic lens.

Isn't that the other way around? We lack those tools because we, as social apes, govern and influence each others via the shortcuts of feelings (symbols and morality are quicker than knowledge).
by aisenik | 2025-06-22 03:13:45+00:00
It binds the Islamic Republic of Iran. Are you suggesting something like the Israel-US relationship?

I believe you're referring to the former prime minister of Pakistan? If so, truly a derail. Pakistan has nuclear weapons.

I think the Shia-Sunni relationship is rather more complex than the post-WW2 anglosphere, quite frankly.