MurphyA/hacker-news huggingface dataset:
by ec109685 | 2025-06-22 01:11:57+00:00
Keep in mind that Frequent A/B tests burn statistical “credit.” Any time you ship a winner at p = 0.05 you’ve spent 5 % of your false-positive budget. Do that five times in a quarter and the chance at least one is noise is 1 – 0.95⁵ ≈ 23 %.

There are several approaches you can take to reduce that source of error:

Quarterly alpha ledger

Decide how much total risk you want this quarter (say 10 %). Divide the remaining α by the number of experiments left and make that the threshold for the next launch. Forces the “is this button-color test worth 3 % of our credibility?” conversation. More info: “Sequential Testing in Practice: Why Peeking Is a Problem and How to Fix It” (https://medium.com/@aisagescribe/sequential-testing-in-pract...).

Benjamini–Hochberg (BH) for metric sprawl

Once you watch a dozen KPIs, Bonferroni buries real lifts. BH ranks all the p-values at the end, then sets the cut so that, say, only 5 % of declared winners are false positives. You keep power, and you can run the same BH step on the primary metric from every experiment each quarter to catch lucky launches. More info: “Controlling False Discoveries: A Guide to BH Correction in Experimentation” (https://www.statsig.com/perspectives/controlling-false-disco...).

Bayesian shrinkage + 5 %

“ghost” control for big fleets FAANG-scale labs run hundreds of tests and care about 0.1 % lifts. They pool everything in a simple hierarchical model; noisy effects get pulled toward the global mean, so only sturdy gains stay above water. Before launch, they sanity-check against a small slice of traffic that never saw any test. Cuts winner’s-curse inflation by ~30 %. Clear explainer: “How We Avoid A/B Testing Errors with Shrinkage” (https://eng.wealthfront.com/2015/10/29/how-we-avoid-ab-testi...) and (https://www.statsig.com/perspectives/informed-bayesian-ab-te...)

<10 tests a quarter: alpha ledger or yolo; dozens of tests and KPIs: BH; hundreds of live tests: shrinkage + ghost control.
by bionhoward | 2025-06-22 01:12:23+00:00
Wrapper companies are winning these days because using the AI services directly is literally dumb, due to poor privacy and explicitly anticompetitive legal terms. Using wrappers lets you isolate yourself from the noncompetes, ensure no model training on your content, and enjoy a significantly better user experience.

Maybe one day OpenAI, Google, and Anthropic will wake up to the fact their lame privacy takes (e.g.

- OpenAI hiding the opt out of model training for even when other people use your custom GPTs

- Gemini’s implicit human review of every conversation, Gemini breaking chat history when you opt out of brain rape,

- Anthropic’s impossible-to-logically-satisfy customer noncompete giving them an excuse to read everyone’s chats to verify they aren’t competing

) and customer noncompetes are retarded,

but until that happens, wrappers are crushing them and riding a tremendous wave of innovation without needing to waste money on the most expensive part which is training
by YZF | 2025-06-22 01:12:29+00:00
The US and Israel have a long standing partnership. During the cold war the USSR backed Syria and Egypt (E.g.) and the US backed Israel. That was not different than other places in the world where the US pushed back against soviet expansion. Unlike Europe though there was never a formal defense pact. Also unlike Europe there were actual wars with people getting killed.

I'm not sure the US "created" the religious extremist government in Iran. It's a complicated story. But the Shah was hated and like other similar dictators to date the US was happy to support that regime and turn a blind eye to the atrocities against the Iranian citizenry. Just like it is happy to work with other dictatorial regimes today as long as their interests align. When the revolution happened the Ayatollah was already well positioned to take advantage of the situation. Many of the people who rose up were eventually lined up against the wall and executed, like tends to happen in these revolutions.
by fidotron | 2025-06-22 01:12:35+00:00
The UK used to have DERA, preceded by the DRA which itself was a merger of other agencies. DERA was part privatized into Qinetiq. Not quite a DARPA or CSIRO equivalent because very much more defence focused, but doing the work more with employees, though with strong relationships with certain universities.

The problem the UK has is it spent so long pretending to be far less sophisticated than it was that now it has become so, to the point their security at air bases is ridiculous https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cx24nppdx0lo . That is the level of competence that remains in that part of their industry, and consider that in tech you basically go into videogames, finance, or defence. (Or ARM, but there are only so many people there).
by aisenik | 2025-06-22 01:13:28+00:00
Incidentally, the mature and honest way to approach this is to not let your emotionality cloud your comprehension and assign the conflicts in your head to the statements I have made. Instead, you explain the phenomenon to a sufficient detail such that the misperceptions you are afraid of other users making can be addressed.

Assigning your fears to me, in conflict with the words I have used, is at best disingenuous.

You guys are supposed to be impressive leaders of society into the Brave New World.
by latchup | 2025-06-22 01:13:47+00:00
Right. In this case I am talking about a "hard" fork, where core contributors disagree on where a project is headed and split up with no intention of collaborating further. Of course, forking with the intent of merging back contributions does not apply here, as is a cooperative and coordinated process. In that case, the "fork" really only serves as a staging ground for contributions.
by hwillis | 2025-06-22 01:15:20+00:00
Radiopharmaceuticals are enriched to 60%. Iran is one of the top producers in the world. Iran has a natural abundance of radioactive isotopes- the background radiation of spots in Iran is extremely high: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramsar,_Iran

https://www.energy.gov/science/ip/articles/harnessing-power-...

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/04/08/723301/Iran-among-t...
by zxexz | 2025-06-22 01:16:10+00:00
In my personal social circle, it's but faux pas to even take out your phone during a discussion, without a statement why. Not explicitly a rule, it just kinda evolved that way. “Ok, I need to know, I’m gonna check wiki” is enough, and honestly makes everything more engaging — “oh! What does it say? How many times DID Cellini escape execution?. Bring up the talk page that should be fun!”
by tmoertel | 2025-06-22 01:16:38+00:00
When reading this article, be aware that there are some percent signs missing, and their absence might cause confusion. For example:

> After 9 peeks, the probability that at least one p-value dips below 0.05 is: 1 − (1 − 0.05)^9 = 37.

There should be a percent sign after that 37. (Probabilities cannot be greater than one.)
by fyrn_ | 2025-06-22 01:17:01+00:00
Really cool concept. I wish we could have something like this in the US one day.

Wanted to report a small typo, In the 3D model index menu, "Uppder" can be found. I assume this was supposed to read "Upper", as in "above".

I hope to one day ride such a system when I visit europe, best of luck with your project.
by hwillis | 2025-06-22 01:18:08+00:00
Iran is one of the top producers or radiopharmaceuticals from highly enriched materials including uranium. This should be unsurprising because Iran has a natural abundance of radioactive isotopes- the background radiation of spots in Iran is extremely high: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ramsar,_Iran

https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2024/04/08/723301/Iran-among-t...

https://www.energy.gov/science/ip/articles/harnessing-power-...
by YZF | 2025-06-22 01:18:55+00:00
The problem in Iran is the government or shall we say the dictatorship. I'm not sure how the US could have/should have handled Iran since the revolution. You're naive if you think the current Iranian regime has any interest in aligning itself to western views via deals. It wants to cement its control, broaden its sphere of influence:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_policy_of_exporting_the_Is...

Deals are tactical. They're not about shifting world views.

I'm not sure the US and Iran are really "at war right now". This is very different than Iraq. But I do agree intervention has risks. The problem is that no intervention also has risks. Take for example Obama's lack of appetite to intervene in Syria. Contrast to Turkey and Israel that effectively intervened recently in Syria and force a regime change that at least so far is more or less holding out.
by Quarrelsome | 2025-06-22 01:19:29+00:00
my bad, he never made that trip to Poland in the end, but the Polish government passed a resolution to enable it, which made me figure it was a done deal.

I only listed the four crimes the ICC deals with in terms of stating its directive, I wasn't asserting that Israel was necessarily guilty of all of them. In terms of things relevant to the current conflict in Gaza, war crimes and crimes against humanity are relatively easy to clear and genocide is a maybe because of the aid blockade. I entirely supported Israel's right to respond to the October the 7th attacks but we're so far past the point of the response being anywhere near proportionate and that we're so far in and Israel's objectives still have failed to have been met, demonstrates the issues with their approach. Its almost as if the cruelty is the point as opposed to the objectives of the supposed mission (especially now they're flinging rockets at Iran seemingly distracting themselves further from recovering the hostages).

There are other factors at play. Palestine is a signatory to the ICC and the crimes were committed in Gaza, also Israel themselves are failing to investigate these war crimes through their own legal system. These are apparently the arguments that give the ICC the confidence to issue these warrants. I mean what does it matter anyway? Netanyahu can just avoid travelling to signatory countries and he's fine.

The whole NATO thing remains short sighted, in the years to come, the USA will learn that some things are priceless. I imagine that GOP donor pressure to reduce the budget to maintain/enact tax cuts is the root source of these desires, which if true, is digustingly short-sighted. I LOVE the USA but the pre-2025 USA, that US hegemony policy from the 20th century promised peace and prosperity at an irksome but acceptable price. However I don't like it right now and if that nation continues to prop up erratic rulers like Donald Trump who enable warmongering rulers like Netanyahu instead of restraining them, then I will start to hate it and I am _far_ from alone on that. Combining that with encouraging Europe to re-arm is just lacking in imagination given that the USA will transition in such a future from the guaranteed winner to a potential loser. You didn't vote for this mess, did you?
by bobmcnamara | 2025-06-22 01:19:36+00:00
The people here primarily got sick because their machining waste wasn't recognized as dangerous, it wasn't appropriately collected, spread through the site, and hury people that didn't even work in those areas.

https://www.ncronline.org/earthbeat/government-workers-were-...

https://www.kansas.com/news/local/article49479255.html

The local uranium mills were primarily weapons related -fuel for breeder reactors.

For the power industry we have to drive to the other side of the state, over to Hematite, where each time a former employee comes down with any rare cancer from a long list, it's assumed to from working at the plant.

What about mining waste causing increased cancer and largely poisoning a river? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Church_Rock_uranium_mill_spi...

"Pre-burnup doesn't count" is exactly what an abusive ex would say.
by _nasuf | 2025-06-22 01:19:48+00:00
Dictation is one of the fastest ways to improve and master listening skills in a new language.

That’s why I created a website: Dictation Studio -> https://www.dictationstudio.com/

It’s a dictation training tool based on YouTube videos. You listen to real spoken content and type out what you hear — a proven and effective way to sharpen your listening and comprehension.

So far, I’ve added 14 YouTube channels and over 500 videos, all in English.

Support for other languages (such as Chinese, Korean, and Japanese) is coming soon — I’m currently organizing and uploading additional content.

Right now, new users can register and get lifetime free access.

Developing this site has been a passion project. My goal is to genuinely help language learners while gathering feedback and suggestions to improve the experience. I’m actively listening to users and making regular updates.

Feel free to give it a try — and I’d love to hear your thoughts or suggestions!

You’re also very welcome to join the community on Reddit: https://www.reddit.com/r/DictationStudio/
by awongh | 2025-06-22 01:20:31+00:00
It can be both things that:

- it's disgusting that the USA is always like, oops, my bad, we messed up when we helped you kill all those people, we were doing our best (sometimes in the case of Iraq going back and forth three times!)

- now that we're here, not sure what else we can do (we shouldn't let Iran fund proxy wars and have nukes)
by sorcerer-mar | 2025-06-22 01:21:06+00:00
The single biggest setback was the JCPOA or the "Iran nuclear deal," which Netanyahu pressured Trump to unilaterally renege on.

Between this and Ukraine, the entire world knows now that even agreements with the previously highly-trusted counterparty of the USA won't keep you safe. Only nuclear weapons can keep you safe.

Off to the races!
by lwansbrough | 2025-06-22 01:21:29+00:00
No it isn't. Most countries work with other countries under a shared set of principles. Even China and Russia do this to an extent. Where deviation happens, it happens when a country can afford to do it (see: south China sea disputes.) Sometimes, they'll do it anyway and suffer (see: North Korea.)

Doing whatever you want is just opening yourself fully to the full spectrum of game theory outcomes. The leadership in Iran is discovering what that means.
by MikeTheGreat | 2025-06-22 01:22:05+00:00
On the one hand, we don't (hello Photoshop!)

On the other hand, it looks like the output of a typewriter (including individual variation amongst typed letters as the typewriter has small variations in the amount of ink that's used for each strike), and if the date on the letter is to be believed (1981) then using a typewriter would have been typical for the time.
by shihab | 2025-06-22 01:22:19+00:00
I understand Iran is a headache to Israel, but did it have to be an enemy of USA? Isn't Iran's ambition, and its proxies, are all regional in nature? Have they ever attempted to harm an american living in America?

Israel has led an amazingly succesful campaign in presenting their problems (often arising out of their territorial ambitions) as a problem for the entire west.
by 34679 | 2025-06-22 01:22:55+00:00
>Oil

If we want their oil, we can buy it like reasonable people do. What you're referring to is armed robbery.

>Iran is the principle destabilising element in the middle east

Is this a joke? The country that has not started any wars in its 300 year existence is not the "destabilizing element". That would be the country that has attacked Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iran this year alone.
by throwaway2037 | 2025-06-22 01:24:09+00:00
I have heard similar estimates. I think what is important: It is less than one year. That is pretty quick from the view of regional geopolitics.

Here is a quote that I found from abc.net.au via Google:

> According to the US Institute for Science and International Security, "Iran can convert its current stock of 60 per cent enriched uranium into 233kg of weapon-grade uranium in three weeks at the Fordow plant", which it said would be enough for nine nuclear weapons.

Putting on my black hat for moment: I think Iran's strategy to tip toe up to the line of weapons grade uranium is strategic genius. (Of course, I don't want them to have nuclear weapons!) It provides maximum deniability so they can get as many parts as close as possible before the final 12 months dash to get nuclear weapons.
by ggm | 2025-06-22 01:25:06+00:00
As I understand it enrichment is by gas centrifuge or thermal diffusion. An earthquake bomb would disrupt both. You wouldn't be starting the feed cycle up rapidly, but since we're told Iran has stockpiles, this goes to sustainable delivery of materials more than specific short term risk.

As a strategy, I see this as flawed. A dirty bomb remains viable with partially enriched materials.

(This does not mean to imply I support either bombing or production of weapons grade materiel. It's a comment to outcome, not wisdom)
by kelnos | 2025-06-22 01:25:06+00:00
"Not close" doesn't mean they're not working on it. I think it's reasonable to expect that unspoken bit is "... but their current avenue of work is going to eventually succeed".

I'm tired of the US playing puppetmaster (poorly) around the world, getting involved in conflicts that have nothing to do with us (or rather, creating conflicts when it has to do with access to oil or something). And it's not like we haven't messed up Iran enough already.

But I do not want a nuclear-armed Iran to be a thing. If they were working on it and had a solid program that was likely to bear fruit, I hate to say it, but this was probably the right move. But this is a big "if"; I don't trust this administration to tell the truth about any of this, no more than I trusted Bush Jr when he said Iraq had nukes.
by Waterluvian | 2025-06-22 01:25:38+00:00
When I look at Russia invading Ukraine, and I see how Israel is behaving, and I listen to the American president talking about annexing my country, I can see why a country might believe it needs nuclear weapons.

Whether this is good or bad is something people can discuss. But I think it’s fleetingly difficult for me to see any sort of righteous high ground these days.
by nozzlegear | 2025-06-22 01:26:20+00:00
> If you're uncomfortable, you should ask your congressAIPACSlave to nuke the entire planet. This way you can make sure there's nobody on this planet left to hate America's rape-culture-based Foreign Policy.

Referring to Congress as AIPAC slaves is textbook anti-Semitic rhetoric; it relies on the old conspiracy theory that Jews secretly control governments. Smuggling in bigotry like this undermines any chance at actual discussion we might have.
by BotJunkie | 2025-06-22 01:26:52+00:00
I visited there a few months ago, and satellites are not a big concern for Rubin in particular. It will visit every part of the sky over 800 times and add all those images together, and since the satellite trails won't cover the same things every time the overall impact on data is minimal. They estimate less than 1%, so the plan is to just run the survey for 1% longer.
by YZF | 2025-06-22 01:27:01+00:00
It's not really the reason Iran wants to have nuclear weapons though. Iran wants to have nuclear weapons to destroy Israel but more generally to be able to act with impunity.

Israel has nothing against Iran. Before the Islamic revolution there were warm relations between the countries and the people. They are pretty distant geographically and until now have never fought a direct war. Iran has been actively attacking Israel via proxies for decades now and openly claims it wants to destroy it. Israel, at least to date, has shown that it can be trusted to use nuclear weapons as a pure deterrent.

I'd rather live in a world without nuclear weapons but I'm a lot more worried about Russia and Pakistan (e.g.).

By the way, we've seen what value security guarantees have to countries willing to give up nuclear deterrence in Ukraine. Not worth anything.
by trhway | 2025-06-22 01:27:18+00:00
> I guess it's dope, but it seems like cartoon armament to me.

The first bunker-buster :

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Disney_bomb

"According to an anecdote, the idea arose after a group of Royal Navy officers saw a similar, but fictional, bomb depicted in the 1943 Walt Disney animated propaganda film Victory Through Air Power,[Note 10] and the name Disney was consequently given to the weapon."
by BrenBarn | 2025-06-22 01:28:10+00:00
There's something to be done there, certainly, but I wonder how much of the problem is due to the fact that these bags easily blow away in the wind, etc. It's one thing to say "don't deliberately litter" but to insist that everyone watch every bag like a hawk to make sure it doesn't blow away, fall out of a pocket, etc. is a bigger ask.
by dcreater | 2025-06-22 01:28:33+00:00
> Databricks and Snowflake, just to mention two players in a similar space, are not OS: did you feel that would prevent you from adopting them as well?

Yes absolutely. Snowflake is a modern Oracle. It may survive but will be more of a barnacle/legacy system for big corporations. Neither are the right solution for the next generation of companies that are starting up today
by FridayoLeary | 2025-06-22 01:28:36+00:00
Thanks for trying to make this into a technical discussion.

I just realised that this bomb is not the same as the so called Mother of all bombs, which by the way has so far only been used once also by trump. That's the gbu 43. Why did they find it necessary to build an even bigger bomb? I wonder if they anticipated strikes on the me.

As to your other point iran seems to have a decent level of education. Building an entire home grown nuclear program under sanctions is impressive.
by TulliusCicero | 2025-06-22 01:30:11+00:00
This comment reminds me of discussion when weed gets legalized in the states.

There's always people going, "psh, this won't make weed any more accessible, it's already so easy to get, anybody can do it!"

And yet, nevertheless, inevitably there are people who try it only because it's now legal and openly sold in stores. A lot of people simply don't want to do things they consider shady, no matter how easy it is. Maybe it being legalized doesn't make it any more accessible to you, but you aren't everyone.
by ggm | 2025-06-22 01:30:17+00:00
One way to reduce the problem would be to stop assigning security status to pedestrian matters of fact.

Dial back the sensitivity of the image, and just release the sat images if you are concerned about leaking the angular resolution.

Has anyone made any logistical improvements to SCIF in decades? I don't mean whizz bang tech, I mean actual changes of substance to information management on secure basis.

Current political incumbents aren't much bothered with nuance it seems.
by awongh | 2025-06-22 01:30:29+00:00
If you're in Iran it makes sense that you would want that if you feel that Israel is a threat. (But it doesn't make it a good idea).

I meant that demographically, if your populace isn't as poor, battle hardened and religious (like Afghanistan) maybe going into a long ground war is less politically feasible?

In Afghanistan they had basically just been fighting a war, where the last war in Iran was 30 years ago?
by kelnos | 2025-06-22 01:32:30+00:00
> The War Powers Resolution requires the president to notify Congress within 48 hours of committing armed forces to military action and forbids armed forces from remaining for more than 60 days, with a further 30-day withdrawal period, without congressional authorization for use of military force (AUMF) or a declaration of war by the United States.

So it seems he's allowed to do this? It's still within 48 hours, so he has time to officially "notify" Congress, if he hasn't done so already. And since this was an aerial bombing, no armed forces remain there, so the 60-day bit is irrelevant.