by alephnerd | 2025-05-21 05:53:38+00:00
> You're looking at China the wrong way. A better way to view it is as two countries - a developed urban one, tied to a developing, rural one

This is how I am looking at China, and this is ALL THE MORE reason that development needs to be spread out much more equally.

Urban China isn't that much richer either - median urban household income is CNY 43,000/$6,000 [0] - so on par with Thailand and half that of Malaysia's.

And rural China is in a worse position - CNY 19,600/$2,700 [0]

Ignoring the bottom half of China (urban and rural) is going to set China up for failure long term.

Having well developed cities (in reality a couple megacities that are also 直辖市) but a significantly underdeveloped hinterland and urban underclass will only lead to extended instability.

Furthermore, it isn't that expensive to expand the social safety net in China. The Chinese income tax system is severely regressive and is comparable to the US system, and the provinces and municipalities that generate the majority of growth for China can easily divert portions of their total production to either expanding their own social safety nets or subsidizing those of adjacent provinces.

Just by my back of the napkin math, expanding social services such that it becomes the equivalent of $2,000 per household would automatically add 1% to China's GDP growth rate, and also alleviate the overproduction trade war issue, as that would give significant breathing room to the bottom half of Chinese consumers.

It's just pigheadedness to not divert some amount of spending into education and healthcare.

> On that kind of trajectory, that median divide of wealth is currently where the 60th percentile was a decade ago, and in a decade, will be where the 40th percentile is today

Past trajectory cannot be used to predict future trajectory. Even the IMF forecasts Chinese GDP growth to drop to 3% by the end of this decade. It is much more difficult to lift the bottom 50% of Chinese households in that kind of a macro environment.

It is just plain complacency to ignore this trend.

> Where does the median urbanite in China stand, compared to her Thai or Malaysian counterpart

On par with their Malaysian or Thai urban counterparts based on HDI [1][2], but based on household income, they are roughly at the same median household income of Thailand, and half that of the median Malaysian household, so worse off than their Malaysian or Thai urban counterparts - and let's be honest, there's a reason you bump into plenty of "Cina" migrant workers doing blue collar work in KL, Johor, Klang, or Penang like bus driving or working as the help at Malaysian Chinese owned businesses, just like how there are plenty of white collar Chinese immigrants in Malaysia.

And if we decide to use a subnational lens as you insisted on your post, we can see that the majority of Chinese provinces are much more deprived than their Malaysian or Thai counterparts, which itself highlights the need for the Central and Provincial governments to really concentrate on expanding social welfare.

[0] - https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/202501/t202501...

[1] - http://www.dosm.gov.my/portal-main/release-content/malaysia-...

[2] - https://globaldatalab.org/shdi/table/shdi/CHN+THA/?levels=1+...