by rdm_blackhole | 2025-04-01 13:23:50+00:00
I can see that you and I obviously disagree of this topic and I am not an oracle either so we'll see what happens.

> Can’t be compared to the presidential. EU elections turnout is always extremely low and this is seen as a protest election in France with low impact. Next year municipal will be the true test and the RN does poorly in polls.

It still shows momentum. They would have won the parliamentary elections also if the left had not put their differences aside and campaigned under the same banner however the NFP is breaking apart as we speak and so the left parties will all campaign separately.

Municipals don't mean much. The right wing party LR is extremely well implanted locally but had a colossal defeat in 2022 just like the socialists. Even Macron's party has/had trouble getting elected in local elections but that hasn't stopped him from being elected twice. So I don't think this is a good signal as to who will win in 2027.

> Young people don’t vote. Turnout is always extremely low. It’s a fairly useless demographic when it comes to winning the election.

That is true but they definitely increase the spread of the message of the RN. One thing to consider is that most people who use Facebook for example nowadays are the older generation and they vote in big numbers. The RN is also very good at creating viral content.

> But they still lose in virtually all head-to-head and it’s a two rounds election.

It depends on who they are facing but from the latest polls, it seems that they either have a tie or win/lose by less than a percent so within the margin of error really.

> The party is still controlled by the Le Pen through and through however. Heck Bardella is only there because he dated (is dating?) one of Le Pen’s grand daughter.

I don't think it matters to the people who do not like her. They see Le Pen and they don't vote for her but a fresh new face, well that could just do it.

> There are plenty of alternatives. You have well liked figures of the center like Villepin and Phillipe biding their time waiting to see which one will be candidate.

Villepin has already been in power, people like him but he has a legacy and ticks the box "been there, done that".

Same as Phillipe who was prime minister under Macron and is therefore the face of the so called Macronie in all but name. Unless he figuratively "kills" Macron before the election, how is he going to convince people that he would do things differently?

> The PS will probably soon have new leadership which should shake up the landscape on the left.

The PS is stuck between a rock and a hard place, they can't go further left because the more right wing members will go to Macron's party and they cant go further right because they will lose support of the left wing members of their party.

They are frozen in place. No wiggle room here.

> The right by taking a hard line approach is eroding the RN base.

The right is taking a pretended hard line. So far nothing has come out of it. It's Sarkozy 2.0 which means nothing will happen. Since the right wing parties started moving right in 2007 in order to kill the RN, the RN has not only grown stronger, it now dwarfs the old right wing party.

> Plus there will likely be three or four other far right candidates like last time.

Yes, for sure, most likely Zemmour, NDA, Asselinau and Bardella. But it doesn't matter because the people who vote for parties other than the RN will most likely vote for them in the run off.

> It’s a huge mistake to think things will remain stable so far ahead of the election. See Macron was basically unknown three years before winning.

I don't think that things will remain stable but I also don't see a new Macron emerging anytime soon. Macron came at a time where people wanted change and were tired of the right/left switch happening every 5 years. He was a fresh new face and without political baggage. That ship has unfortunately sailed but what he has done is weakened the old parties and basically created a boulevard for the far-right.

It was hard for Macron to form his center coalition when the country was not as divided as it is now. Today, it is basically an impossible task to recreate this sort of environment.

But in any case, we will see. personally my hunch is that Bardella will squeak by in the run off by less than a percent but who knows really? We have crossed the rubicon and there is no turning back.