MokshithSai15/ClimeAI huggingface dataset:
Claim: Water vapor helps trap heat, and is a far the strongest of the major greenhouse gases, contributing 36–72 percent of the greenhouse effect.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Greenhouse effect: From 1859 onwards, he showed that the effect was due to a very small proportion of the atmosphere, with the main gases having no effect, and was largely due to water vapour, though small percentages of hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide had a significant effect. [SUPPORTS]
- Greenhouse effect: However radiative energy losses become increasingly important higher in the atmosphere, largely because of the decreasing concentration of water vapor, an important greenhouse gas. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse effect: By their percentage contribution to the greenhouse effect on Earth the four major gases are: water vapor, 36–70% carbon dioxide, 9–26% methane, 4–9% ozone, 3–7% It is not possible to assign a specific percentage to each gas because the absorption and emission bands of the gases overlap (hence the ranges given above). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: Water vapor accounts for the largest percentage of the greenhouse effect, between 36% and 66% for clear sky conditions and between 66% and 85% when including clouds. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Water vapor: Water vapor is the most potent greenhouse gas owing to the presence of the hydroxyl bond which strongly absorbs in the infra-red region of the light spectrum. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: Thus rather than a "doomsday" cycle of runaway warming, Mother Earth appears surprisingly tolerant of carbon, decreasing atmospheric levels of water vapor -- a more effective greenhouse gas -- to compensate.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Greenhouse gas: Because water vapor is a greenhouse gas, this results in further warming and so is a "positive feedback" that amplifies the original warming. [REFUTES]
- Greenhouse gas: Eventually other earth processes offset these positive feedbacks, stabilizing the global temperature at a new equilibrium and preventing the loss of Earth's water through a Venus-like runaway greenhouse effect. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Runaway greenhouse effect: An increase in temperature from greenhouse gases leading to increased water vapor (which is itself a greenhouse gas) causing further warming is a positive feedback, but not a runaway effect, on Earth. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Runaway greenhouse effect: A planet's outgoing longwave radiation is limited by this evaporated water, which is an effective greenhouse gas and blocks additional infrared radiation as it accumulates in the atmosphere. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Water: Water vapor and carbon dioxide in the atmosphere provide a temperature buffer (greenhouse effect) which helps maintain a relatively steady surface temperature. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Statistical analysis of the rate of warming over different periods find that warming from 1970 to 2001 is greater than the warming from both 1860 to 1880 and 1910 to 1940.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Attribution of recent climate change: Over the past five decades there has been a global warming of approximately 0.65 °C (1.17 °F) at the Earth's surface (see historical temperature record). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Effects of global warming: It is a major aspect of climate change, and has been demonstrated by the instrumental temperature record which shows global warming of around 1 °C since the pre-industrial period, although the bulk of this (0.9°C) has occurred since 1970. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets confirm that the 2009–2018 decade was 0.93 ± 0.07 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Retreat of glaciers since 1850: The Little Ice Age was a period from about 1550 to 1850 when the world experienced relatively cooler temperatures compared to the time before and after. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Urban heat island: For example, Ross McKitrick and Patrick J. Michaels conducted a statistical study of surface-temperature data regressed against socioeconomic indicators, and concluded that about half of the observed warming trend (for 1979–2002) could be accounted for by the residual UHI effects in the corrected temperature data set they studied—which had already been processed to remove the (modeled) UHI contribution. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Despite the logarithmic relationship between CO2 and surface temperatures, atmospheric CO2 levels are rising so fast that unless we dramatically decrease our emissions, global warming will accelerate over the 21st Century.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide: Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone have correspondingly strengthened their absorption and emission of infrared radiation, causing the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century. [SUPPORTS]
- Carbon dioxide: Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Between 1993 and 2017, the global mean sea level rose on average by 3.1 ± 0.3 mm per year, with an acceleration detected as well. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Currently, surface temperatures are rising by about 0.2 °C per decade. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: To keep warming below 2 °C, more stringent emission reductions in the near-term would allow for less rapid reductions after 2030. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: As a result, the planet as a whole is becoming less reflective and absorbing more sunlight, which is accelerating global warming.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Global warming: If cloud cover increases, more sunlight will be reflected back into space, cooling the planet. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: This effect results in the increased absorption of radiation that accelerates melting." [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: For instance, the change from a dark forest to grassland makes the surface lighter, causing it to reflect more sunlight. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: In the tropics the net effect is to produce a significant warming, while at latitudes closer to the poles a loss of albedo leads to an overall cooling effect. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea level rise. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: While preventing global warming is relatively cheap, economists can't even accurately estimate the accelerating costs of climate damages if we continue with business-as-usual.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Carbon tax: Economists generally argue that carbon taxes are the most efficient and effective way to curb climate change, with the least adverse effects on the economy. [REFUTES]
- Economics of global warming: No models suggest that the optimal policy is to do nothing, i.e., allow "business-as-usual" emissions. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Effects of global warming: Researchers have warned that current economic modeling may seriously underestimate the impact of potentially catastrophic climate change and point to the need for new models that give a more accurate picture of potential damages. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Stern Review: Economists have different views over the cost estimates of climate change mitigation given in the Review. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Stern Review: Some economists have argued that the Review overestimates the present value of the costs of climate change, and underestimates the costs of emission reduction. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Yet the cost of doing something will likely be higher than 6 per cent of GDP" (Bjorn Lomborg)
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Bjørn Lomborg: He argues that "... the cost and benefits of the proposed measures against global warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Stern Review: 'Central estimates of the annual costs of achieving stabilisation between 500 and 550ppm CO2e are around 1% of global GDP, if we start to take strong action now. [REFUTES]
- United Kingdom: This would take us to 9.4 per cent of GDP spent on health ie around EU average. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- United Kingdom: The UK service sector makes up around 79 per cent of GDP. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- United Kingdom: The UK spends around 8.4 per cent of its gross domestic product on healthcare, which is 0.5 percentage points below the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development average and about one percentage point below the average of the European Union. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The measurements of the amount of CO2 made at the Mauna Loa Observatory are accurate and uncontaminated by any emissions from the volcano.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Mauna Loa Observatory: Since 1958, initially under the direction of Charles Keeling, followed by his son Ralph and later Elmer Robinson, Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) has been monitoring and collecting data relating to atmospheric change, and is known especially for the continuous monitoring of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), which is sometimes referred to as the Keeling Curve. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Mauna Loa Observatory: The contamination from local volcanic sources is sometimes detected at the observatory, and is then removed from the background data. [SUPPORTS]
- Mauna Loa Observatory: According to the NOAA, Mauna Loa is the world's oldest continuous CO2 monitoring station, and the world's primary benchmark site for measurement of the gas. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Mauna Loa Observatory: The latest observation of CO2 concentrations from MLO can be found at web sites along with data from other sites and trends at Mauna Loa. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Mauna Loa: Measurements are adjusted to account for local outgassing of CO2 from the volcano. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: 'Mauna Loa has been producing a readout which supports Manning's predetermined goal by showing steady growth in atmospheric CO2 concentrations since 1959.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Global warming: In 2013, CO2 readings taken at the world's primary benchmark site in Mauna Loa surpassing 400 ppm for the first time. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse effect: Measurements of CO 2 from the Mauna Loa observatory show that concentrations have increased from about 313 parts per million (ppm) in 1960, passing the 400 ppm milestone on May 9, 2013. [SUPPORTS]
- Keeling Curve: The measurements collected at Mauna Loa Observatory show a steady increase in mean atmospheric CO 2 concentration from 313 parts per million by volume (ppmv) in March 1958 to 406 ppmv in November 2018, with an increase of ~2 ppmv CO 2 per year. [SUPPORTS]
- Mauna Loa Observatory: Since 1958, initially under the direction of Charles Keeling, followed by his son Ralph and later Elmer Robinson, Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) has been monitoring and collecting data relating to atmospheric change, and is known especially for the continuous monitoring of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), which is sometimes referred to as the Keeling Curve. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Mauna Loa Observatory: According to the NOAA, Mauna Loa is the world's oldest continuous CO2 monitoring station, and the world's primary benchmark site for measurement of the gas. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The trend in CO2 at Mauna Loa is practically identical to the global trend because CO2 mixes well throughout the atmosphere.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere: "Up-to-date weekly average CO 2 at Mauna Loa". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Carbon dioxide: Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone have correspondingly strengthened their absorption and emission of infrared radiation, causing the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ecosystem ecology: Figure 4 shows seasonal and annual changes in CO2 concentration measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii from 1987 to 1990. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: An example is the mixing of atmospheric gases into the oceans. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: This figure accounts for CO 2 molecules being removed from the atmosphere by mixing into the ocean, photosynthesis, and other processes. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The influence of the volcano is easily spotted and removed, together with other even more important spurious influences.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Kīlauea: Kīlauea's bulk affects local climate conditions through the influence of trade winds coming predominantly from the northeast, which, when squeezed upwards by the volcano's height, result in a moister windward side and a comparatively arid leeward flank. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Level Mountain: This tremendous variation in the erupted magmas and influence of adjacent vents gave rise to a high and volumnous complex bimodal stratovolcano centrally located atop the shield. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ovid: In his treatment of elegy, scholars have traced the influence of rhetorical education in his enumeration, in his effects of surprise, and in his transitional devices. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Socompa: Groundwater is warmer and richer in CO 2 the closer to Socompa it is pumped, also suggesting that volcanic gas fluxes still occur at the volcano and that the volcano influences groundwater systems. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Under the Volcano: The influence of Christopher Marlowe's Doctor Faustus runs throughout the novel, and references to Charles Baudelaire's Les Fleurs du mal, William Shakespeare's tragedies, and Dante's Divine Comedy enrich the novel's meaning. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Venus is not hot because of a runaway greenhouse.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Carl Sagan: He also perceived global warming as a growing, man-made danger and likened it to the natural development of Venus into a hot, life-hostile planet through a kind of runaway greenhouse effect. [REFUTES]
- Greenhouse effect: The planet Venus experienced runaway greenhouse effect, resulting in an atmosphere which is 96% carbon dioxide, with surface atmospheric pressure roughly the same as found 900 m (3,000 ft) underwater on Earth. [REFUTES]
- Runaway greenhouse effect: Venus is sufficiently strongly heated by the Sun that water vapor can rise much higher in the atmosphere and be split into hydrogen and oxygen by ultraviolet light. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Venus: It may have had water oceans in the past, but these would have vaporized as the temperature rose due to a runaway greenhouse effect. [REFUTES]
- Venus: The CO 2-rich atmosphere generates the strongest greenhouse effect in the Solar System, creating surface temperatures of at least 735 K (462 °C; 864 °F). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: "The solar system oscillates with a 60-year cycle due to the Jupiter/Saturn three-synodic cycle and to a Jupiter/Saturn beat tidal cycle...
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Jupiter trojan: This occurred when the period of the trojans' libration about their Lagrangian point had a 3:1 ratio to the period at which the position where Jupiter passes Saturn circulated relative to its perihelion. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Orbital resonance: As mentioned above, Gliese 876 e, b and c are in a Laplace resonance, with a 4:2:1 ratio of periods (124.3, 61.1 and 30.0 days). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Saturn: "Modeling the 5 : 2 Mean-Motion Resonance in the Jupiter-Saturn Planetary System". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Tibetan calendar: From the 12th century onwards, we observe the usage of two sixty-year cycles. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Year: The Galactic year is the time it takes Earth's Solar System to revolve once around the galactic center. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: About 60% of the warming observed from 1970 to 2000 was very likely caused by the above natural 60-year climatic cycle during its warming phase" (Loehle and Scafetta)
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Global warming: Before the Industrial Revolution, naturally occurring amounts of greenhouse gases caused the air near the surface to be warmer by about 33 °C (59 °F) than it would be in their absence. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Holocene: "Centennial-scale climate cooling with a sudden event around 8,200 years ago". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Holocene: This period of warmth ended about 5,500 years ago with the descent into the Neoglacial and concomitant Neopluvial. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: It is extremely likely (95-100% probability) that human influence was the dominant cause of global warming between 1951-2010. [REFUTES]
- Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum: These can be defined as geologically brief (<200,000 year) events characterized by rapid global warming, major changes in the environment, and massive carbon addition. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: There seems to be evidence for a link between solar activity and water levels.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Aeolis quadrangle: "High Concentrations of Silica Indicate Considerable Water Activity on Mars – SpaceRef". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Gale (crater): On November 4, 2018, geologists presented evidence, based on studies in Gale by the Curiosity rover, that there was plenty of water on early Mars. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ice age: In 2009, further evidence was provided that changes in solar insolation provide the initial trigger for the earth to warm after an Ice Age, with secondary factors like increases in greenhouse gases accounting for the magnitude of the change. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ice age: There is considerable evidence that over the very recent period of the last 100–1000 years, the sharp increases in human activity, especially the burning of fossil fuels, has caused the parallel sharp and accelerating increase in atmospheric greenhouse gases which trap the sun's heat. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Lakes on Mars: Eight times as much deuterium was inferred at the polar deposits of Mars than exists on Earth (VSMOW), suggesting that ancient Mars had significantly higher levels of water. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: However, more direct comparisons between solar activity and global temperature finds that  as the sun grew hotter or cooler, Earth's climate followed it with a 10 year lag - presumably due to the dampening effect of the ocean.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Atlantic Ocean: This heat uptake provides a time-lag for climate change but it also results in a thermal expansion of the oceans which contribute to sea-level rise. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Attribution of recent climate change: (2009) found that the evidence showed that connections between solar variation and climate were more likely to be mediated by direct variation of insolation rather than cosmic rays, and concluded: "Hence within our assumptions, the effect of varying solar activity, either by direct solar irradiance or by varying cosmic ray rates, must be less than 0.07 °C since 1956, i.e. [REFUTES]
- Global warming: Another line of evidence for the warming not being due to the Sun is how temperature changes differ at different levels in the Earth's atmosphere. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Although the most common measure of global warming is the increase in the near-surface atmospheric temperature, over 90% of the additional energy stored in the climate system over the last 50 years has warmed ocean water. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sun: However, the geological record demonstrates that Earth has remained at a fairly constant temperature throughout its history, and that the young Earth was somewhat warmer than it is today. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Also found was that the correlation between solar activity and global temperatures ended around 1975, hence recent warming must have some other cause than solar variations.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Global warming: In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Solar activity and climate: Neither direct measurements nor proxies of solar variation correlate well with Earth global temperature, particularly in recent decades when both quantities are best known. [SUPPORTS]
- Solar activity and climate: Scafetta and West correlated solar proxy data and lower tropospheric temperature for the preindustrial era, before significant anthropogenic greenhouse forcing, suggesting that TSI variations may have contributed 50% of the warming observed between 1900 and 2000 (although they conclude "our estimates about the solar effect on climate might be overestimated and should be considered as an upper limit.") [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Solar activity and climate: In 1991, Friis-Christensen and Lassen claimed a strong correlation of the length of the solar cycle with northern hemispheric temperature changes. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sun: Earlier extended minima have been discovered through analysis of tree rings and appear to have coincided with lower-than-average global temperatures. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: A South African paper has found a 21 year cycle synchronous with the solar cycle (Alexander 2007).
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Ice age: The Milankovitch cycles are a set of cyclic variations in characteristics of the Earth's orbit around the Sun. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Leap year: A leap year (also known as an intercalary year or bissextile year) is a calendar year containing an additional day (or, in the case of lunisolar calendars, a month) added to keep the calendar year synchronized with the astronomical or seasonal year. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Leap year: The Bahá'í calendar is a solar calendar composed of 19 months of 19 days each (361 days). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Little Ice Age: Orbital forcing from cycles in the earth's orbit around the sun has, for the past 2,000 years, caused a long-term northern hemisphere cooling trend that continued through the Middle Ages and the Little Ice Age. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Moon: One comprises what we have called "Saros Cycle Texts", which give the months of eclipse possibilities arranged in consistent cycles of 223 months (or 18 years). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Some of the regions in which  GRACE claims ice loss in East Antarctica average colder than -30°C  during the summer, and never, ever get above freezing.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Antarctica: East Antarctica is colder than its western counterpart because of its higher elevation. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Antarctica: The temperature in Antarctica has reached −89.2 °C (−128.6 °F) (or even −94.7 °C (−135.8 °F) as measured from space), though the average for the third quarter (the coldest part of the year) is −63 °C (−81 °F). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- East Antarctic Ice Sheet: The EAIS is the driest, windiest, and coldest place on Earth, with temperatures reported down to nearly -100°C. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- East Antarctica: East Antarctica is generally higher than West Antarctica, and is considered the coldest place on Earth. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming in Antarctica: East Antarctica appears to have experienced a net gain of a relatively small amount of ice during the 25-years although uncertainty is greater due to subsidence of the underlying bedrock. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Unlike the simple example of positive feedback we learned in high school, the increase from every round of feedback gets smaller and smaller, in the case of the enhanced greenhouse effect.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Climate change feedback: Since water vapor is a greenhouse gas, the increase in water vapor content makes the atmosphere warm further; this warming causes the atmosphere to hold still more water vapor (a positive feedback), and so on until other processes stop the feedback loop. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climate change feedback: Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity while negative feedback reduces it. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climate change feedback: This releases more stored carbon into the atmosphere than the carbon cycle can naturally re-absorb, as well as reducing the overall forest area on the planet, creating a positive feedback loop. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Negative feedback: In contrast, positive feedback is feedback in which the system responds so as to increase the magnitude of any particular perturbation, resulting in amplification of the original signal instead of stabilization. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Positive feedback: That is, the effects of a perturbation on a system include an increase in the magnitude of the perturbation. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]