MokshithSai15/ClimeAI huggingface dataset:
Claim: No known natural forcing fits the fingerprints of observed warming except anthropogenic greenhouse gases.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Global warming: Attributing detected temperature changes and extreme events to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases requires scientists to rule out known internal climate variability and natural external forcings. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs, and nitrous oxide. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: The largest human influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Climate change may be due to natural internal processes or external forcings such as modulations of the solar cycles, volcanic eruptions and persistent anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use." [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: The spatial and temporal fingerprint of warming can be traced to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, which are a direct result of burning fossil fuels, broad-scale deforestation and other human activity." [SUPPORTS]
Claim: The PDO shows no trend, and therefore the PDO is not responsible for the trend of global warming.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Effects of global warming: Some of the graphs show a positive trend, e.g., increasing temperature over land and the ocean, and sea level rise. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming hiatus: "Recently amplified arctic warming has contributed to a continual global warming trend". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming in Antarctica: The Antarctic Peninsula (AP) is often described as a region with one of the largest warming trends on Earth since the 1950s, based on the temperature trend of 0.54 °C/decade during 1951–2011 recorded at Faraday/Vernadsky station. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: There has been no upward trend in the amount of the Sun's energy reaching the Earth, so it cannot be responsible for the current warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The 2nd law of thermodynamics is consistent with the greenhouse effect which is directly observed.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Second law of thermodynamics: This does not conflict with notions that have been observed of the fundamental laws of physics, namely CPT symmetry, since the second law applies statistically, it is hypothesized, on time-asymmetric boundary conditions. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Second law of thermodynamics: This law is the basis of temperature. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Thermodynamics: The second law is an observation of the fact that over time, differences in temperature, pressure, and chemical potential tend to even out in a physical system that is isolated from the outside world. [SUPPORTS]
- Thermodynamics: There are many versions of the second law, but they all have the same effect, which is to explain the phenomenon of irreversibility in nature. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Water vapor: This greenhouse forcing is directly observable, via distinct spectral features versus water vapor, and observed to be rising with rising CO 2 levels. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Weather and climate are different; climate predictions do not need weather detail.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Chaos theory: Lorenz's discovery, which gave its name to Lorenz attractors, showed that even detailed atmospheric modelling cannot, in general, make precise long-term weather predictions. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climate: A humid continental climate is marked by variable weather patterns and a large seasonal temperature variance. [REFUTES]
- European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts: Reanalysis provides a four-dimensional picture of the atmosphere and effectively allows monitoring of the variability and change of global climate, thereby contributing also to the understanding and attribution of climate change. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Met Office: The Met Office makes meteorological predictions across all timescales from weather forecasts to climate change. [REFUTES]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: Documented long-term climate changes include changes in Arctic temperatures and ice, widespread changes in precipitation amounts, ocean salinity, wind patterns and extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and the intensity of tropical cyclones. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Those who contribute the least greenhouse gases will be most impacted by climate change.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Global warming: Many of the countries that have contributed least to global greenhouse gas emissions are among the most vulnerable to climate change, which raises questions about justice and fairness with regard to mitigation and adaptation. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: The largest human influence has been the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: Cumulative anthropogenic (i.e., human-emitted) emissions of CO 2 from fossil fuel use are a major cause of global warming, and give some indication of which countries have contributed most to human-induced climate change. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Holocene extinction: Large populations of megaherbivores have the potential to contribute greatly to the atmospheric concentration of methane, which is an important greenhouse gas. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Holocene extinction: However, damage to peatland contributes to 4% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and 8% of those caused by burning fossil fuels. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Evidence is building that net cloud feedback is likely positive and unlikely to be strongly negative.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Evidence-based medicine: Large effect: This is when methodologically strong studies show that the observed effect is so large that the probability of it changing completely is less likely. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Evidence-based medicine: A 2007 analysis of 1,016 systematic reviews from all 50 Cochrane Collaboration Review Groups found that 44% of the reviews concluded that the intervention was likely to be beneficial, 7% concluded that the intervention was likely to be harmful, and 49% concluded that evidence did not support either benefit or harm. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Evidence: This support may be strong or weak. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming controversy: Other analyses have found that the iris effect is a positive feedback rather than the negative feedback proposed by Lindzen. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming controversy: One theory is that the climate may reach a "tipping point" where positive feedback effects lead to runaway global warming; such feedbacks include decreased reflection of solar radiation as sea ice melts, exposing darker seawater, and the potential release of large volumes of methane from thawing permafrost. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: That human CO2 is causing global warming is known with high certainty & confirmed by observations.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Attribution of recent climate change: Attribution of recent climate change is the effort to scientifically ascertain mechanisms responsible for recent global warming and related climate changes on Earth. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Carbon dioxide: "How do we know more CO2 is causing warming?". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. [SUPPORTS]
- Greenhouse gas: During the late 20th century, a scientific consensus evolved that increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cause a substantial rise in global temperatures and changes to other parts of the climate system, with consequences for the environment and for human health. [SUPPORTS]
- Sea level rise: This acceleration is due mostly to human-caused global warming, which is driving thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of land-based ice sheets and glaciers. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: Sea level rise is now increasing faster than predicted due to unexpectedly rapid ice melting.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Sea level rise: Since the last glacial maximum about 20,000 years ago, the sea level has risen by more than 125 metres (410 ft), with rates varying from less than a mm/year to 40+ mm/year, as a result of melting ice sheets over Canada and Eurasia. [SUPPORTS]
- Sea level rise: This acceleration is due mostly to human-caused global warming, which is driving thermal expansion of seawater and the melting of land-based ice sheets and glaciers. [SUPPORTS]
- Sea level rise: "Antarctica ice melt has accelerated by 280% in the last 4 decades". [SUPPORTS]
- Sea level rise: "Greenland's Coastal Ice Caps Have Melted Past The Point Of No Return". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: Under the influence of global warming, melt at the base of the ice sheet increases. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: The oceans are warming and moreover are becoming more acidic, threatening the food chain.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Ocean acidification: Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere. [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: Ongoing acidification of the oceans may threaten future food chains linked with the oceans. [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: With the production of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels, oceans are becoming more acidic since CO2 dissolves in water and forms the acidic bicarbonate ion. [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: "Rising Acidity Is Threatening Food Web of Oceans, Science Panel Says". [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: "Ocean Growing More Acidic Faster Than Once Thought; Increasing Acidity Threatens Sea Life". [SUPPORTS]
Claim: Around 97% of climate experts agree that humans are causing global warming.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
- 21st century: Climate scientists have reached a consensus that the earth is undergoing significant anthropogenic (human-induced) global warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climate change denial: Several researchers have concluded that around 97% of climate scientists agree with this consensus. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: Of these, 97% agree, explicitly or implicitly, that global warming is happening and is human-caused. [SUPPORTS]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: 97% of the scientists surveyed agreed that global temperatures had increased during the past 100 years; 84% said they personally believed human-induced warming was occurring, and 74% agreed that "currently available scientific evidence" substantiated its occurrence. [REFUTES]
Claim: Methane plays a minor role in global warming but could get much worse if permafrost starts to melt.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Atmospheric methane: "Methane release from melting permafrost could trigger dangerous global warming". [SUPPORTS]
- Atmospheric methane: With rising global temperatures, the amount of permafrost melting and releasing methane continues to increase. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Arctic amplification also causes methane to be released as permafrost melts, which is expected to surpass land use changes as the second strongest anthropogenic source of greenhouse gases by the end of the century. [SUPPORTS]
- Permafrost: It is thought that permafrost thawing could exacerbate global warming by releasing methane and other hydrocarbons, which are powerful greenhouse gases. [SUPPORTS]
- Permafrost: The consequence is thawing soil, which may be weaker, and release of methane, which contributes to an increased rate of global warming as part of a feedback loop. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: CO2 levels are measured by hundreds of stations across the globe, all reporting the same trend.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere: The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) continuously releases data about CO 2 emissions, budget and concentration at individual observation stations. [SUPPORTS]
- Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere: Now measurements are made at many sites globally. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere: There are several surface measurement (including flasks and continuous in situ) networks including NOAA/ERSL, WDCGG, and RAMCES. [SUPPORTS]
- Carbon dioxide: Concentrations also vary on a regional basis, most strongly near the ground with much smaller variations aloft. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: Measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently 100 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Multiple lines of independent evidence indicate humidity is rising and provides positive feedback.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Confirmation bias: Self-verification is the drive to reinforce the existing self-image and self-enhancement is the drive to seek positive feedback. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Confirmation bias: Similar experiments have found a preference for positive feedback, and the people who give it, over negative feedback. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: The main reinforcing feedbacks are the water vapour feedback, the ice–albedo feedback, and probably the net effect of clouds. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: The warming evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of observations, documented by many independent scientific groups; for example, in most continental regions the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation has increased. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Positive feedback: Less water vapor means both low dew point temperatures and more efficient daytime heating, decreasing the chances of humidity in the atmosphere leading to cloud formation. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Hundreds of flowers across the UK are flowering earlier now than any time in 250 years.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Cherry blossom: 23 March 2015. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Cherry blossom: 22 January 2008. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Cherry blossom: 13 August 2010. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Cherry blossom: 26 April 2008. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Cherry blossom: Peak bloom time at Royal Botanical Gardens is normally around the last week of April or the first week of May. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: CO2 is increasing rapidly, and is reaching levels not seen on the earth for millions of years.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Carbon cycle: On 12 November 2015, NASA scientists reported that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere from human sources continues to increase, reaching levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years. [SUPPORTS]
- Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere: The present concentration is the highest for 14 million years. [SUPPORTS]
- Carbon dioxide: Human activities have caused CO 2 to increase above levels not seen in hundreds of thousands of years. [SUPPORTS]
- Carbon dioxide: Increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO 2 and other long-lived greenhouse gases such as methane, nitrous oxide and ozone have correspondingly strengthened their absorption and emission of infrared radiation, causing the rise in average global temperature since the mid-20th century. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Carbon dioxide: The current concentration is about 0.04% (410 ppm) by volume, having risen from pre-industrial levels of 280 ppm. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The 'decline' refers to a decline in northern tree-rings, not global temperature, and is openly discussed in papers and the IPCC reports.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climatic Research Unit documents: The implications of the decline are discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, and in Chapter 6 of the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) which describes discussion of various possible reasons for the divergence which does not affect all the trees, and says that there is no consensus about the cause. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climatic Research Unit documents: Several scientific sources state that the decline being referred to is a decline in tree ring climate proxy metrics, not temperature. [SUPPORTS]
- Climatic Research Unit documents: The issues with tree rings had not been hidden, but were extensively discussed in scientific literature and in IPCC reports. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy: This "decline" referred to the well-discussed tree-ring divergence problem, but these two phrases were taken out of context by global warming sceptics, including US Senator Jim Inhofe and former Governor of Alaska Sarah Palin, as though they referred to some decline in measured global temperatures, even though they were written when temperatures were at a record high. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Scientific discussion takes place in journal articles that are peer-reviewed, which scientists subject to assessment every couple of years in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Global warming' and 'climate change' mean different things and have both been used for decades.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
- Global warming: Global warming and climate change are often used interchangeably. [REFUTES]
- Global warming: Research in the 1950s suggested that temperatures were increasing, and a 1952 newspaper used the term "climate change". [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Both the terms global warming and climate change were used only occasionally until 1975, when Wallace Smith Broecker published a scientific paper on the topic, "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: In technical sources, the term climate change is also used to refer to past and future climate changes that persist for and extended period of time, and includes regional changes as well as global change. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: NOAA, 17 June 2015; IPCC AR5 SYR Glossary 2014, p. 120: "Climate change refers to a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties and that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The sun has not warmed since 1970 and so cannot be driving global warming.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Effects of global warming: It is a major aspect of climate change, and has been demonstrated by the instrumental temperature record which shows global warming of around 1 °C since the pre-industrial period, although the bulk of this (0.9°C) has occurred since 1970. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Since the 1950s, droughts and heat waves have appeared simultaneously with increasing frequency. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets confirm that the 2009–2018 decade was 0.93 ± 0.07 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: "Is the Sun causing global warming?". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The ocean is absorbing massive amounts of CO2, and is becoming more acidic as a result.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
- Ocean acidification: Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere. [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: With the production of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels, oceans are becoming more acidic since CO2 dissolves in water and forms the acidic bicarbonate ion. [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: The ocean would not become acidic even if it were to absorb the CO2 produced from the combustion of all fossil fuel resources. [REFUTES]
- Ocean acidification: It is expected to drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 pH units (an additional doubling to tripling of today's post-industrial acid concentrations) by 2100 as the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO 2, the impacts being most severe for coral reefs and the Southern Ocean. [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: Although the natural absorption of CO 2 by the world's oceans helps mitigate the climatic effects of anthropogenic emissions of CO 2, it is believed that the resulting decrease in pH will have negative consequences, primarily for oceanic calcifying organisms. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: Monckton used the IPCC equation in an inappropriate manner.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Christopher Monckton, 3rd Viscount Monckton of Brenchley: Since 2002 Monckton has had several newspaper articles published critical of the IPCC and current scientific consensus on climate change. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- General circulation model: The 2001 IPCC Third Assessment Report F igure 9.3 shows the global mean response of 19 different coupled models to an idealised experiment in which emissions increased at 1% per year. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: "Assessing dangerous climate change through an update of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 'reasons for concern'". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Radiative forcing: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR4 report defines radiative forcings as: "Radiative forcing is a measure of the influence a factor has in altering the balance of incoming and outgoing energy in the Earth-atmosphere system and is an index of the importance of the factor as a potential climate change mechanism. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Radiative forcing: While recently a suggests a significant revision of methane IPCC formula. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Theory, models and direct measurement confirm CO2 is currently the main driver of climate change.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climate change feedback: Following Le Chatelier's principle, the chemical equilibrium of the Earth's carbon cycle will shift in response to anthropogenic CO2 emissions. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: It is a major aspect of climate change and has been demonstrated by direct temperature measurements and by measurements of various effects of the warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: In 1896, he published the first climate model of its kind, showing that halving of CO 2 could have produced the drop in temperature initiating the ice age. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Scientists have determined that the major factors causing the current climate change are greenhouse gases, land use changes, and aerosols and soot. [SUPPORTS]
- Scientific modelling: Models are typically used when it is either impossible or impractical to create experimental conditions in which scientists can directly measure outcomes. [SUPPORTS]