MokshithSai15/ClimeAI huggingface dataset:
Claim: ‘We don’t expect record years every year, but the ongoing long-term warming trend is clear.’”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climate change (general concept): Climate change is a long-term, sustained trend of change in climate. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming controversy: Using the long-term temperature trends for the earth scientists and statisticians conclude that it continues to warm through time. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: While record-breaking years attract considerable public interest, individual years are less significant than the overall trend. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Instrumental temperature record: This long-term trend is the main cause for the record warmth of 2015 and 2016, surpassing all previous years—even ones with strong El Niño events." [SUPPORTS]
- Phenology: Between 1850 and 1950 a long-term trend of gradual climate warming is observable, and during this same period the Marsham record of oak-leafing dates tended to become earlier. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: Last year’s warmth was manifested across the planet, from the warm tropical ocean waters off the coast of northeastern Australia, where the Great Barrier Reef experienced its worst coral bleaching event on record and large scale coral death, to the Arctic, where sea ice hit regular monthly record lows and overall temperatures were also the warmest on record, at least from January through September 2016.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Arctic Ocean: Marine extinction intensity during the Phanerozoic % Millions of years ago (H) K–Pg Tr–J P–Tr Cap Late D O–S Sea ice, and the cold conditions it sustains, serves to stabilize methane deposits on and near the shoreline, preventing the clathrate breaking down and outgassing methane into the atmosphere, causing further warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Coral bleaching: A global mass coral bleaching has been occurring since 2014 because of the highest recorded temperatures plaguing oceans. [SUPPORTS]
- Coral bleaching: Coral reef provinces have been permanently damaged by warm sea temperatures, most severely in the Indian Ocean. [SUPPORTS]
- Great Barrier Reef: A March 2016 report stated that coral bleaching was more widespread than previously thought, seriously affecting the northern parts of the reef as a result of warming ocean temperatures. [SUPPORTS]
- Great Barrier Reef: In March 2017, the journal Nature published a paper showing that huge sections of an 800-kilometre (500 mi) stretch in the northern part of the reef had died in the course of 2016 due to high water temperatures, an event that the authors put down to the effects of global climate change. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: Extreme high temperatures were seen from India — where the city of Phalodi recorded temperatures of 51 degrees Celsius (123.8 Fahrenheit) in May, a new national record — to Iran, where a temperature of 53 degrees Celsius (127.4 F) was recorded in Delhoran on July 22.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- 2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves: Temperatures of 53.7C (128.66 F) have been recorded in Pakistan. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- 2019 heat wave in India and Pakistan: On 2 June 2019, the city of Churu recorded a temperature of 50.8 °C (123.4 °F), only one-fifth of a degree Celsius short of the country's highest-ever temperature, 51 °C (124 °F) during the 2016 heat wave. [SUPPORTS]
- Abadan, Iran: which was recorded on January 20, 1964 and February 3, 1967 while the highest is 53 °C (127 °F), recorded on July 11, 1951 and August 9, 1981. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Phalodi: It holds the record for the highest verified temperature recorded in India at 51 °C (124 °F) on 19 May 2016. [SUPPORTS]
- Phalodi: The highest temperatures recorded in Phalodi during 2016 summers from 18 May to 21 May when it rose up to 51 degrees Celsius. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: But then, just over a year ago, Mike Wallace, a hydrologist with 30 years’ experience, noticed while researching his PhD that they had omitted some key information[…] his results were surprising: there has been no reduction in oceanic pH
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Doctor of Philosophy: The aim of the Doctor of Arts degree was to shorten the time needed to complete the degree by focusing on pedagogy over research, although the Doctor of Arts still contains a significant research component. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Doctor of Philosophy: Upon completion of at least two years' research and coursework as a graduate student, a candidate must demonstrate truthful and original contributions to their specific field of knowledge within a frame of academic excellence. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Doctor of Philosophy: A Master's degree is required, and the doctorate combines approximately 4–5 years of research (amounting to 3–5 scientific articles, some of which must be first-author) and 60 ECTS points of studies. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Doctor of Philosophy: This is typically done after one or two years and the research work done may count towards the Ph.D. degree. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Doctor of Philosophy: The arts faculty, which in Germany was labelled the faculty of philosophy, started demanding contributions to research, attested by a dissertation, for the award of their final degree, which was labelled Doctor of Philosophy (abbreviated as Ph.D.)—originally this was just the German equivalent of the Master of Arts degree. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Ocean acidification is the terrifying threat whereby all that man-made CO2 we’ve been pumping into the atmosphere may react with the sea to form a sort of giant acid bath.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
- Greenhouse gas: This is the case for CO 2, which is reduced by photosynthesis of plants, and which, after dissolving in the oceans, reacts to form carbonic acid and bicarbonate and carbonate ions (see ocean acidification). [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: With the production of CO2 from the burning of fossil fuels, oceans are becoming more acidic since CO2 dissolves in water and forms the acidic bicarbonate ion. [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: For example, the elevated oceanic levels of CO 2 may produce CO 2-induced acidification of body fluids, known as hypercapnia. [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: The ocean would not become acidic even if it were to absorb the CO2 produced from the combustion of all fossil fuel resources. [REFUTES]
- Ocean acidification: Some of it reacts with the water to form carbonic acid. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: “[…]The impact on calcification, metabolism, growth, fertility and survival of calcifying marine species when pH is lowered up to 0.3 units […] is beneficial, not damaging.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide: This reduction in pH affects biological systems in the oceans, primarily oceanic calcifying organisms. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ocean acidification: The effects on the calcifying organisms at the base of the food webs could potentially destroy fisheries. [REFUTES]
- Ocean acidification: The German Advisory Council on Global Change stated: In order to prevent disruption of the calcification of marine organisms and the resultant risk of fundamentally altering marine food webs, the following guard rail should be obeyed: the pH of near surface waters should not drop more than 0.2 units below the pre-industrial average value in any larger ocean region (nor in the global mean). [REFUTES]
- Ocean acidification: It is expected to drop by a further 0.3 to 0.5 pH units (an additional doubling to tripling of today's post-industrial acid concentrations) by 2100 as the oceans absorb more anthropogenic CO 2, the impacts being most severe for coral reefs and the Southern Ocean. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ocean acidification: Although the natural absorption of CO 2 by the world's oceans helps mitigate the climatic effects of anthropogenic emissions of CO 2, it is believed that the resulting decrease in pH will have negative consequences, primarily for oceanic calcifying organisms. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Marine life has nothing whatsoever to fear from ocean acidification.”
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Marine life: Human activities affect marine life and marine habitats through overfishing, pollution, acidification and the introduction of invasive species. [REFUTES]
- Ocean acidification: "Rising levels of acids in seas may endanger marine life, says study". [REFUTES]
- Ocean acidification: Increasing acidity is thought to have a range of potentially harmful consequences for marine organisms such as depressing metabolic rates and immune responses in some organisms and causing coral bleaching. [REFUTES]
- Sea: Calcium carbonate also becomes more soluble at lower pH, so ocean acidification is likely to have profound effects on marine organisms with calcareous shells, such as oysters, clams, sea urchins, and corals, because their ability to form shells will be reduced, and the carbonate compensation depth will rise closer to the sea surface. [REFUTES]
- Seawater: One of the most striking features of this is ocean acidification, resulting from increased CO2 uptake of the oceans related to higher atmospheric concentration of CO2 and higher temperatures, because it severely affects coral reefs, mollusks, echinoderms and crustaceans (see coral bleaching). [REFUTES]
Claim: [ocean acidification was ] First referenced in a peer-reviewed study in Nature in 2003
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Ocean acidification: A National Research Council study released in April 2010 likewise concluded that "the level of acid in the oceans is increasing at an unprecedented rate". [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: A 2012 paper in the journal Science examined the geological record in an attempt to find a historical analog for current global conditions as well as those of the future. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ocean acidification: A 2013 study claimed acidity was increasing at a rate 10 times faster than in any of the evolutionary crises in Earth's history. [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: In a synthesis report published in Science in 2015, 22 leading marine scientists stated that CO 2 from burning fossil fuels is changing the oceans' chemistry more rapidly than at any time since the Great Dying, Earth's most severe known extinction event, emphasizing that the 2 °C maximum temperature increase agreed upon by governments reflects too small a cut in emissions to prevent "dramatic impacts" on the world's oceans, with lead author Jean-Pierre Gattuso remarking that "The ocean has been minimally considered at previous climate negotiations. [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: A study in 2008 examining a sediment core from the North Atlantic found that while the species composition of coccolithophorids has remained unchanged for the industrial period 1780 to 2004, the calcification of coccoliths has increased by up to 40% during the same time. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: There was, he said, an ‘inherent bias’ in scientific journals which predisposed them to publish ‘doom and gloom stories’.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Academic journal: "Scientific Articles Accepted (Personal Checks, Too)". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- MIT Technology Review: The historical Technology Review often published articles that were controversial, or critical of certain technologies. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- MIT Technology Review: Editor-in-chief Pontin said, "Of the ten stories which were published, only three were entirely accurate. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific journal: Some journals, such as Nature, Science, PNAS, and Physical Review Letters, have a reputation of publishing articles that mark a fundamental breakthrough in their respective fields. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Survivalism: In his 2008 book Wealth, War and Wisdom, Biggs has a gloomy outlook for the economic future, and suggests that investors take survivalist measures. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: “The chain of events that links the melting Arctic with weather to the south begins with rising global temperatures causing more sea ice to melt.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Arctic sea ice decline: The fast rate of the sea ice melting is resulting in the oceans absorbing and heating up the Arctic. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Arctic: The effects of global warming in the Arctic include rising temperatures, loss of sea ice, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climate change in the Arctic: The effects of global warming in the Arctic, or climate change in the Arctic include rising air and water temperatures, loss of sea ice, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a related cold temperature anomaly, observed since the 1970s. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Surface temperature increases are greatest in the Arctic, which has contributed to the retreat of glaciers, permafrost, and sea ice. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Not only does this increase the absorption of sunlight, it also increases melting and sea level rise. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: “The jet stream forms a boundary between the cold north and the warmer south, but the lower temperature difference means the winds are now weaker.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Global warming: As the temperature difference between the Arctic and the equator decreases, ocean currents that are driven by that temperature difference, like the Gulf Stream, are weakening. [SUPPORTS]
- Jet stream: This in turn reduces the temperature gradient that drives jet stream winds, which may eventually cause the jet stream to become weaker and more variable in its course. [SUPPORTS]
- Jet stream: Surface winds below the jet may sway vegetation, but are significantly weaker. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Jet stream: If two air masses, one cold and dense to the North and the other hot and less dense to the South, are separated by a vertical boundary and that boundary should be removed, the difference in densities will result in the cold air mass slipping under the hotter and less dense air mass. [SUPPORTS]
- Jet stream: Therefore, the strong eastward moving jet streams are in part a simple consequence of the fact that the Equator is warmer than the North and South poles. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: This means the jet stream meanders more, with big loops bringing warm air to the frozen north and cold air into warmer southern climes.”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Early 2014 North American cold wave: According to the UK Met Office, the jet stream deviated[clarification needed] to the south (bringing cold air with it) as a result of unusual contrast between cold air in Canada and mild winter temperatures in the United States. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Early 2014 North American cold wave: This jet stream instability brings warm air north as well as cold air south. [SUPPORTS]
- Jet stream: Within the vortex, the cold polar air becomes increasingly cold with neither warmer air from lower latitudes nor energy from the Sun during the polar night. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Jet stream: The path of the jet typically has a meandering shape, and these meanders themselves propagate eastward, at lower speeds than that of the actual wind within the flow. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Jet stream: The wind does not flow directly from the hot to the cold area, but is deflected by the Coriolis effect and flows along the boundary of the two air masses. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: This “blocking” effect means extreme events can unfold.”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Arab Spring: The world watched the events of the Arab Spring unfold, "gripped by the narrative of a young generation peacefully rising up against oppressive authoritarianism to secure a more democratic political system and a brighter economic future." [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- List of cognitive biases: "Interoceptive cues predicting exteroceptive events". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- List of memory biases: Based on the evidence, memories are not extreme enough. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Solar particle event: The effect can be so pronounced that during extreme events, it is not possible to obtain quality images of the Sun or stars. [SUPPORTS]
- Variable star: The expansion phase of a pulsation is caused by the blocking of the internal energy flow by material with a high opacity, but this must occur at a particular depth of the star to create visible pulsations. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Severe ‘snowmageddon’ winters are now strongly linked to soaring polar temperatures, say researchers, with deadly summer heatwaves and torrential floods also probably linked.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Global storm activity of 2010: The El Niño phenomenon was blamed for the unusually high sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean that moved east, thus pulling rainfall along with it. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Heat wave: Eric Klinenberg has noted that in the United States, the loss of human life in hot spells in summer exceeds that caused by all other weather events combined, including lightning, rain, floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- List of extreme weather records in Pakistan: The most deadly heat wave in the history of Pakistan is the record-breaking heat wave of summer 2010 which occurred in the last ten days of May. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Rain: The climate is characterized by hot, dry summers and cool, wet winters. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Year Without a Summer: Rapid, dramatic temperature swings were common, with temperatures sometimes reverting from normal or above-normal summer temperatures as high as 95 °F (35 °C) to near-freezing within hours. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Prof Adam Scaife, a climate modelling expert at the UK’s Met Office, said the evidence for a link to shrinking Arctic ice was now good: ‘The consensus points towards that being a real effect.’”
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Adam Scaife: Scaife and his team have made recent advances in long range weather forecasting and have uncovered a signal to noise paradox in climate models that makes them better at predicting the real climate than they are at predicting themselves. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy: In response to the incident, 1,700 British scientists signed a joint statement circulated by the UK Met Office declaring their "utmost confidence in the observational evidence for global warming and the scientific basis for concluding that it is due primarily to human activities". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenland: Ben Keene, the atlas's editor, commented: "In the last two or three decades, global warming has reduced the size of glaciers throughout the Arctic and earlier this year, news sources confirmed what climate scientists already knew: water, not rock, lay beneath this ice bridge on the east coast of Greenland. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: The American Meteorological Society (AMS) statement adopted by their council in 2012 concluded: There is unequivocal evidence that Earth's lower atmosphere, ocean, and land surface are warming; sea level is rising; and snow cover, mountain glaciers, and Arctic sea ice are shrinking. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: Network of African Science Academies: "A consensus, based on current evidence, now exists within the global scientific community that human activities are the main source of climate change and that the burning of fossil fuels is largely responsible for driving this change." [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The connection between the vanishing Arctic ice and extreme summer weather in the northern hemisphere is probable, according to scientists, but not yet as certain as the winter link.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Arctic sea ice decline: Evidence suggest that the continued loss of Arctic sea-ice and snow cover may influence weather at lower latitudes. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Early 2014 North American cold wave: Europe also saw the 2013-2014 Atlantic winter storms in Europe which has been linked to the cold winter in North America. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Earth: Earth is closest to the Sun (at perihelion) in January, which is summer in the Southern Hemisphere. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Earth: Consequently, summers are 2.3 °C (4 °F) warmer in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere under similar conditions. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Extreme weather: Some studies assert a connection between rapidly warming arctic temperatures and thus a vanishing cryosphere to extreme weather in mid-latitudes. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Another consequence of the fast melting Arctic raises the possibility that there may be even worse extreme weather to come, according to a few scientists: titanic Atlantic superstorms and hurricanes barreling across Europe.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Arctic: In particular, there are concerns that Arctic shrinkage, a consequence of melting glaciers and other ice in Greenland, could soon contribute to a substantial rise in sea levels worldwide. [SUPPORTS]
- Climate change in the Arctic: The effects of global warming in the Arctic, or climate change in the Arctic include rising air and water temperatures, loss of sea ice, and melting of the Greenland ice sheet with a related cold temperature anomaly, observed since the 1970s. [SUPPORTS]
- Physical impacts of climate change: "Global warming will bring fiercer hurricanes". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Physical impacts of climate change: Scientists have found evidence that increased evaporation could result in more extreme weather as global warming progresses. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: The statement references the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and asserts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO 2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid". [SUPPORTS]
Claim: This means it is possible that by some yardsticks, 2016 will be declared as hot as 2015 or even slightly hotter – because El Nino did not vanish until the middle of the year.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- 2014–16 El Niño event: During November and December 2015, values within NOAA's Oceanic Niño Index peaked at 2.4 °C (4.3 °F), which surpassed December 1997 value of 2.2 °C (4.0 °F). [SUPPORTS]
- 2014–16 El Niño event: As a result of this the BoM, NOAA's CPC, IRI, and the JMA, all declared that the record-tying El Niño event had ended in late May/early June. [SUPPORTS]
- 2014–16 El Niño event: The El Niño event also contributed to the Earth's warming trend, with 2014 and 2015 being two of the warmest years on record. [SUPPORTS]
- El Niño: Tehuantepecers primarily occur during the cold season months for the region in the wake of cold fronts, between October and February, with a summer maximum in July caused by the westward extension of the Azores High. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- El Niño: However, the Japan Meteorological Agency declares that an El Niño event has started when the average five month sea surface temperature deviation for the NINO.3 region, is over 0.5 °C (0.90 °F) warmer for six consecutive months or longer. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Nino.’”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- El Niño: An El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- El Niño: It is thought that there have been at least 30 El Niño events since 1900, with the 1982–83, 1997–98 and 2014–16 events among the strongest on record. [SUPPORTS]
- Holocene: The Holocene has been identified with the current warm period, known as MIS 1. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ice age: The Huronian ice age was caused by the elimination of atmospheric methane, a greenhouse gas, during the Great Oxygenation Event. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Little Ice Age: The Little Ice Age (LIA) was a period of cooling that occurred after the Medieval Warm Period. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]