MokshithSai15/ClimeAI huggingface dataset:
Claim: The divergence of tree-ring proxies from temperatures after 1960 is openly discussed in the peer-reviewed literature and the last two IPCC assessment reports.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climatic Research Unit documents: The implications of the decline are discussed in Chapter 2 of the IPCC Third Assessment Report, and in Chapter 6 of the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) which describes discussion of various possible reasons for the divergence which does not affect all the trees, and says that there is no consensus about the cause. [SUPPORTS]
- Climatic Research Unit documents: The issues with tree rings had not been hidden, but were extensively discussed in scientific literature and in IPCC reports. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Scientific discussion takes place in journal articles that are peer-reviewed, which scientists subject to assessment every couple of years in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Hockey stick controversy: Dendroclimatologist Keith Briffa's February 1998 study reporting a divergence problem affecting some tree ring proxies after 1960 warned that this problem had to be taken into account to avoid overestimating past temperatures. [SUPPORTS]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: The Geological Society of America (GSA) concurs with assessments by the National Academies of Science (2005), the National Research Council (2006), and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that global climate has warmed and that human activities (mainly greenhouse‐gas emissions) account for most of the warming since the middle 1900s. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Currently, humans are emitting around 29 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere per year.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide: Human activities emit about 29 billion tons of carbon dioxide per year, while volcanoes emit between 0.2 and 0.3 billion tons. [SUPPORTS]
- Fossil fuel: The burning of fossil fuels produces around 21.3 billion tonnes (21.3 gigatonnes) of carbon dioxide (CO2) per year. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions in 2010 were equivalent to 49 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide (using the most recent global warming potentials over 100 years from the AR5 report). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: In the modern era, emissions to the atmosphere from volcanoes are approximately 0.645 billion tonnes of CO 2 per year, whereas humans contribute 29 billion tonnes of CO 2 each year. [SUPPORTS]
- Greenhouse gas: In current trend, annual emissions will grow to 1.34 billion tonnes by 2030. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Current CO2 levels are the highest in 15 million years.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere: The current concentration may be the highest in the last 20 million years. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere: The present concentration is the highest for 14 million years. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: However, various proxies and modeling suggests larger variations in past epochs; 500 million years ago CO 2 levels were likely 10 times higher than now. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: Carbon dioxide mole fractions in the atmosphere have gone up by approximately 35 percent since the 1900s, rising from 280 parts per million by volume to 387 parts per million in 2009. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: Measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently 100 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: "...there is the contention by Wolfgang Knorr of the Department of Earth Sciences at the University of Bristol in England that carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere are about where they were 160 years ago." (as quoted by Ken Ward Jr.)
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Botany: The concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere today is much lower than it was when plants emerged onto land during the Ordovician and Silurian periods. [REFUTES]
- Eocene: For example, diverse geochemical and paleontological proxies indicate that at the maximum of global warmth the atmospheric carbon dioxide values were at 700–900 ppm while other proxies such as pedogenic (soil building) carbonate and marine boron isotopes indicate large changes of carbon dioxide of over 2,000 ppm over periods of time of less than 1 million years. [REFUTES]
- Eocene: "Paleobotanical Evidence for Near Present-Day Levels of Atmospheric CO2 During Part of the Tertiary". [REFUTES]
- Eocene: For contrast, today the carbon dioxide levels are at 400 ppm or 0.04%. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ice age: At a meeting of the American Geophysical Union (December 17, 2008), scientists detailed evidence in support of the controversial idea that the introduction of large-scale rice agriculture in Asia, coupled with extensive deforestation in Europe began to alter world climate by pumping significant amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere over the last 1,000 years. [REFUTES]
Claim: Warming causes more moisture in the air which leads to more extreme precipitation events.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Effects of global warming: Over most of the mid-latitude land masses and wet tropical regions, extreme precipitation events will very likely become more intense and frequent. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: As air gets warmer, it can hold more moisture. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Overall, higher temperatures bring more rain and snowfall, but for some regions droughts and wildfires increase instead. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Further examples include sea level rise, widespread melting of snow and land ice, increased heat content of the oceans, increased humidity, and the earlier timing of spring events, such as the flowering of plants. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: The effects of global warming include rising sea levels, regional changes in precipitation, more frequent extreme weather events such as heat waves, and expansion of deserts. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Far from contradicting global warming, record snowfall is predicted by climate models and consistent with our expectation of more extreme precipitation events.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climate: These models predict an upward trend in the global mean surface temperature, with the most rapid increase in temperature being projected for the higher latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: The warming evident in the instrumental temperature record is consistent with a wide range of observations, documented by many independent scientific groups; for example, in most continental regions the frequency and intensity of heavy precipitation has increased. [SUPPORTS]
- Sea level rise: Simultaneously, the capacity of the atmosphere to carry precipitation increases with temperature so that precipitation, in the form of snowfall, increases in global and regional models. [SUPPORTS]
- Snow: Snow science often leads to predictive models that include snow deposition, snow melt, and snow hydrology—elements of the Earth's water cycle—which help describe global climate change. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Weather: Climate change caused by human activities that emit greenhouse gases into the air is expected to affect the frequency of extreme weather events such as drought, extreme temperatures, flooding, high winds, and severe storms. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: Meanwhile, it will likely to continue to snow in Chicago in the coming days.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Chicago: Winters are cold and snowy, although the city typically sees less snow and rain in winter than that experienced on the East Coast; blizzards do occur, as in 2011. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Chicago: Northeast winds from wintertime cyclones departing south of the region sometimes bring the city lake-effect snow. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Hurricane Sandy: Up to 2 to 3 feet (0.6–0.9 m) of snow was forecast for mountainous areas of the state. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Hurricane Sandy: On October 29, snow was falling in parts of the state. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Hurricane Sandy: Snow was reported in some parts of eastern Ohio and south of Cleveland. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: There have long been claims that some unspecificed "they" has "changed the name from 'global warming' to 'climate change'".
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
- Climate change (general concept): The term "climate change" is often used to refer specifically to anthropogenic climate change (also known as global warming). [SUPPORTS]
- Climate change (general concept): In this sense, especially in the context of environmental policy, the term climate change has become synonymous with anthropogenic global warming. [SUPPORTS]
- Climate change (general concept): Shaftel 2016: "'Climate change' and 'global warming' are often used interchangeably but have distinct meanings. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: In November 2017, a second warning to humanity signed by 15,364 scientists from 184 countries stated that "the current trajectory of potentially catastrophic climate change due to rising greenhouse gases from burning fossil fuels, deforestation, and agricultural production – particularly from farming ruminants for meat consumption" is "especially troubling". [REFUTES]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: In addition to referring to the IPCC as "[the] world's best climate scientists", they stated that climate change is happening as "the result of emissions since industrialization and we have already set in motion the next 50 years of global warming – what we do from now on will determine how worse it will get." [REFUTES]
Claim: They changed the name from “global warming” to “climate change” after the term global warming just wasn’t working (it was too cold)!
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Climate change (general concept): The term "climate change" is often used to refer specifically to anthropogenic climate change (also known as global warming). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Research in the 1950s suggested that temperatures were increasing, and a 1952 newspaper used the term "climate change". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Both the terms global warming and climate change were used only occasionally until 1975, when Wallace Smith Broecker published a scientific paper on the topic, "Climatic Change: Are We on the Brink of a Pronounced Global Warming?". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Oxford Dictionary chose climate emergency as the word of the year 2019 and defines the term as "a situation in which urgent action is required to reduce or halt climate change and avoid potentially irreversible environmental damage resulting from it". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Measurements of carbon isotopes and falling oxygen in the atmosphere show that rising carbon dioxide is due to the burning of fossil fuels and cannot be coming from the ocean.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide: Currently, about half of the carbon dioxide released from the burning of fossil fuels remains in the atmosphere and is not absorbed by vegetation and the oceans. [SUPPORTS]
- Carbon dioxide: As the concentration of carbon dioxide increases in the atmosphere, the increased uptake of carbon dioxide into the oceans is causing a measurable decrease in the pH of the oceans, which is referred to as ocean acidification. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Carbon dioxide: Gas solubility decreases as the temperature of water increases (except when both pressure exceeds 300 bar and temperature exceeds 393 K, only found near deep geothermal vents) and therefore the rate of uptake from the atmosphere decreases as ocean temperatures rise. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: CO2 emissions are continuing to rise due to the burning of fossil fuels and land-use change. [SUPPORTS]
- Ocean acidification: Ocean acidification is the ongoing decrease in the pH of the Earth's oceans, caused by the uptake of carbon dioxide (CO 2) from the atmosphere. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: "The solubility of carbon dioxide in water is listed in the Handbook of Chemistry and Physics as a declining function of temperature. ...
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide: Also, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) writes in their Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report: "The uptake of anthropogenic carbon since 1750 has led to the ocean becoming more acidic with an average decrease in pH of 0.1 units. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Henry's law: The following table lists some temperature dependencies: Solubility of permanent gases usually decreases with increasing temperature at around room temperature. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Henry's law: Often, the smaller the gas molecule (and the lower the gas solubility in water), the lower the temperature of the maximum of the Henry's law constant. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Solubility: In liquid water at high temperatures, (e.g. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Solubility: that approaching the critical temperature), the solubility of ionic solutes tends to decrease due to the change of properties and structure of liquid water; the lower dielectric constant results in a less polar solvent. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The IPCC’s predicted equilibrium warming path bears no relation to the far lesser rate of “global warming” that has been observed in the 21st century to date.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: They predict that under a "business as usual" (BAU) scenario, global mean temperature will increase by about 0.3 °C per decade during the [21st] century. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: They judge that global mean surface air temperature has increased by 0.3 to 0.6 °C over the last 100 years, broadly consistent with prediction of climate models, but also of the same magnitude as natural climate variability. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Projections based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios suggest warming over the 21st century at a more rapid rate than that experienced for at least the last 10,000 years. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: The current trajectory of global greenhouse gas emissions is not consistent with limiting global warming to below 1.5 or 2 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: Since the start of the 20th century, the global mean surface temperature of the Earth has increased by more than 0.7°C and the rate of warming has been largest in the last 30 years. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: It seems scientists have noticed recently that quite a few planets in our solar system seem to be heating up a bit, including Pluto."
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Comet: A comet is an icy, small Solar System body that, when passing close to the Sun, warms and begins to release gases, a process called outgassing. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Exoplanet: This could be caused by the interaction between the stellar wind and the planet's magnetosphere creating an electric current through the planet that heats it up causing it to expand. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Pluto: The presence of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, in Pluto's atmosphere creates a temperature inversion, with the average temperature of its atmosphere tens of degrees warmer than its surface, though observations by New Horizons have revealed Pluto's upper atmosphere to be far colder than expected (70 K, as opposed to about 100 K). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Solar System: It is the hottest planet, with surface temperatures over 400 °C (752 °F), most likely due to the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Solar System: The four largest, Ganymede, Callisto, Io, and Europa, show similarities to the terrestrial planets, such as volcanism and internal heating. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Pluto's climate change over the last 14 years is likely a seasonal event.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Neptune: The long orbital period of Neptune results in seasons lasting forty years. [SUPPORTS]
- Neptune: As a result, Neptune experiences similar seasonal changes to Earth. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Neptune: "Evidence for methane escape and strong seasonal and dynamical perturbations of Neptune's atmospheric temperatures". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Planet: Each planet therefore has seasons, changes to the climate over the course of its year. [SUPPORTS]
- Uranus: Observations from Earth have shown seasonal change and increased weather activity as Uranus approached its equinox in 2007. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Pluto experiences drastic season changes due to an elliptical orbit (that takes 250 Earth years).
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Pluto: It has a moderately eccentric and inclined orbit during which it ranges from 30 to 49 astronomical units or AU (4.4–7.4 billion km) from the Sun. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Pluto: Pluto's orbital period is currently about 248 years. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Pluto: The semi-major axis of Pluto's orbit varies between about 39.3 and 39.6 au with a period of about 19,951 years, corresponding to an orbital period varying between 246 and 249 years. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Pluto: Like Uranus, Pluto rotates on its "side" in its orbital plane, with an axial tilt of 120°, and so its seasonal variation is extreme; at its solstices, one-fourth of its surface is in continuous daylight, whereas another fourth is in continuous darkness. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Pluto: Pluto has yet to complete a full orbit of the Sun since its discovery, as one Plutonian year is 247.68 years long. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: There are a myriad of other radiative forcings that affect the planet's energy imbalance.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Attribution of recent climate change: Radiative forcing is a measure of how various factors alter the energy balance of the Earth's atmosphere. [SUPPORTS]
- Earth's energy budget: Climate forcings are changes that cause temperatures to rise or fall, disrupting the energy balance. [SUPPORTS]
- Radiative forcing: Radiative forcing or climate forcing is the difference between insolation (sunlight) absorbed by the Earth and energy radiated back to space. [SUPPORTS]
- Radiative forcing: Changes to Earth's radiative equilibrium, that cause temperatures to rise or fall over decadal periods, are called climate forcings. [SUPPORTS]
- Radiative forcing: The radiation balance is altered by such factors as the intensity of solar energy, reflectivity of clouds or gases, absorption by various greenhouse gases or surfaces and heat emission by various materials. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: Volcanoes, solar variations, clouds, methane, aerosols - these all change the way energy enters and/or leaves our climate.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climate change (general concept): These include processes such as variations in solar radiation, variations in the Earth's orbit, variations in the albedo or reflectivity of the continents, atmosphere, and oceans, mountain-building and continental drift and changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. [SUPPORTS]
- Climate system: These external forcings can be natural, such as variations in solar intensity and volcanic eruptions, or caused by humans. [SUPPORTS]
- Global cooling: Human activity — mostly as a by-product of fossil fuel combustion, partly by land use changes — increases the number of tiny particles (aerosols) in the atmosphere. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Solid and liquid particles known as aerosols – from volcanoes, plankton, and human-made pollutants – reflect incoming sunlight, cooling the climate. [SUPPORTS]
- Greenhouse gas: If this energy balance is shifted, Earth's surface becomes warmer or cooler, leading to a variety of changes in global climate. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: While there are many drivers of climate, CO2 is the most dominant radiative forcing and is increasing faster than any other forcing.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere: The increased radiative forcing due to increased CO2 in the Earth's atmosphere is based on the physical properties of CO2 and the non-saturated absorption windows where CO2 absorbs outgoing long-wave energy. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Human activity since the Industrial Revolution has increased the amount of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, leading to increased radiative forcing from CO2, methane, tropospheric ozone, CFCs, and nitrous oxide. [SUPPORTS]
- Greenhouse gas: Recent data also shows that the concentration is increasing at a higher rate. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: The sharp acceleration in CO 2 emissions since 2000 to more than a 3% increase per year (more than 2 ppm per year) from 1.1% per year during the 1990s is attributable to the lapse of formerly declining trends in carbon intensity of both developing and developed nations. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: Positive radiative forcing leads to warming by increasing the net incoming energy, whereas negative radiative forcing leads to cooling. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The Independent Climate Change Email Review investigated the CRU scientists' actions relating to peer review.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy: Scientific integrity demands robust, independent peer review, however, and AAAS therefore emphasised that investigations are appropriate whenever significant questions are raised regarding the transparency and rigour of the scientific method, the peer-review process, or the responsibility of individual scientists. [SUPPORTS]
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy: The report, issued on 18 February 2011, cleared the researchers and "did not find any evidence that NOAA inappropriately manipulated data or failed to adhere to appropriate peer review procedures". [SUPPORTS]
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy: The review would also scrutinise the CRU's policies and practices for "acquiring, assembling, subjecting to peer review, and disseminating data and research findings" and "their compliance or otherwise with best scientific practice". [SUPPORTS]
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy: On 22 March 2010 the university announced the composition of an independent Science Assessment Panel to reassess key CRU papers that have already been peer-reviewed and published in journals. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Soon and Baliunas controversy: The Independent Climate Change Email Review, an independent review funded by the University of East Anglia and chaired by Sir Muir Russell, examined allegations that the emails showed attempts to undermine normal procedures of publication. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The Review concluded that CRU's actions were normal and did not threaten the integrity of peer review.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy: Scientific integrity demands robust, independent peer review, however, and AAAS therefore emphasised that investigations are appropriate whenever significant questions are raised regarding the transparency and rigour of the scientific method, the peer-review process, or the responsibility of individual scientists. [SUPPORTS]
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy: It found that the CRU's work had been "carried out with integrity" and had used "fair and satisfactory" methods. [SUPPORTS]
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy: Describing its report as "hugely positive", he stated that "it is especially important that, despite a deluge of allegations and smears against the CRU, this independent group of utterly reputable scientists have concluded that there was no evidence of any scientific malpractice." [SUPPORTS]
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy: The report, issued on 18 February 2011, cleared the researchers and "did not find any evidence that NOAA inappropriately manipulated data or failed to adhere to appropriate peer review procedures". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climatic Research Unit email controversy: The review would also scrutinise the CRU's policies and practices for "acquiring, assembling, subjecting to peer review, and disseminating data and research findings" and "their compliance or otherwise with best scientific practice". [SUPPORTS]