MokshithSai15/ClimeAI huggingface dataset:
Claim: ‘Arctic ice conditions have been tracking at record low conditions since October, persisting for six consecutive months’
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Arctic sea ice decline: "Arctic Sea Ice Hits Record Low—Extreme Weather to Come?". [SUPPORTS]
- Arctic sea ice decline: Scientists recently measured sixteen-foot (five-meter) wave heights during a storm in the Beaufort Sea in mid-August until late October 2012. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Arctic sea ice decline: Given the estimated trend and the volume estimate for October–November of 2007 at less than 9,000 km3, one can project that at this rate it would take only 9 more years or until 2016 ± 3 years to reach a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean in summer. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Arctic sea ice decline: The previous record of the lowest area of the Arctic Ocean covered by ice in 2012 saw a low of 1.58 million square miles (4.09 million square kilometers). [SUPPORTS]
- Methane: "Arctic sea ice reaches lowest extent for the year and the satellite record" (Press release). [SUPPORTS]
Claim: “‘The Arctic may be remote, but changes that occur there directly affect us.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Arctic: The Arctic is especially vulnerable to the effects of any climate change, as has become apparent with the reduction of sea ice in recent years. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Arctic: Climate change is also predicted to have a large impact on Tundra vegetation, causing an increase of shrubs, and having a negative impact on bryophytes and lichens. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climate change in the Arctic: Climate change is having a direct impact on the people that live in the Arctic, as well as other societies around the world. [SUPPORTS]
- Climate change in the United States: As an island Territory, we are directly and immediately impacted by global climate change. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- El Niño: As a result of this change, Micronesia is more likely to be affected by tropical cyclones, while China has a decreased risk of being affected by tropical cyclones. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The melting of the Greenland ice sheet is already contributing significantly to sea level rise, and new research is highlighting that the melting of Arctic sea ice can alter weather conditions across Europe, Asia and North America.’”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Greenland ice sheet: The Greenland Ice Sheet has experienced record melting in recent years since detailed records have been kept and is likely to contribute substantially to sea level rise as well as to possible changes in ocean circulation in the future if this is sustained. [SUPPORTS]
- Greenland ice sheet: Ice sheet models project that such a warming would initiate the long-term melting of the ice sheet, leading to a complete melting of the ice sheet (over centuries), resulting in a global sea level rise of about 7 metres (23 ft). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenland ice sheet: Besides contributing to global sea level rise, the process adds freshwater to the ocean, which may disturb ocean circulation and thus regional climate. [SUPPORTS]
- Greenland: The glaciers of Greenland are also contributing to a rise in the global sea level faster than was previously believed. [SUPPORTS]
- Sea level rise: There is a threshold in surface warming beyond which a partial or near-complete melting of the Greenland ice sheet occurs. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Global sea level rise surged between November 2014 and February 2016, with the El Niño event helping the oceans rise by 15mm.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- 2014–16 El Niño event: The 2014–16 El Niño was a warming of the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean that resulted in unusually warm waters developing between the coast of South America and the International Date Line. [SUPPORTS]
- 2014–16 El Niño event: As El Niño conditions started to develop during early 2014, sea levels in western Micronesia including in waters surrounding the island nations of Palau and Guam dropped by 6–9 feet (1.8–2.7 m). [SUPPORTS]
- Sea level rise: Between 1900 and 2016, the sea level rose by 16–21 cm (6.3–8.3 in). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: This in turn caused sea-levels to rise 20 metres. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: 18 January 2019. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Final data for 2016 sea level rise have yet to be published.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Effects of global warming: The IPCC's Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere concluded that global mean sea level rose by 0.16 metres between 1901 and 2016. [REFUTES]
- Effects of global warming: Global sea level rise is accelerating, rising 2.5 times faster between 2006 and 2016 than it did during the 20th century. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: Between 1900 and 2016, the sea level rose by 16–21 cm (6.3–8.3 in). [REFUTES]
- Sea level rise: More precise data gathered from satellite radar measurements reveal an accelerating rise of 7.5 cm (3.0 in) from 1993 to 2017, which is a trend of roughly 30 cm (12 in) per century. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: A 2018 systematic review study estimated that ice loss across the entire continent was 43 gigatons (Gt) per year on average during the period from 1992 to 2002, but has accelerated to an average of 220 Gt per year during the five years from 2012 to 2017. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Our children and grandchildren will look back on the climate deniers and ask how they could have sacrificed the planet for the sake of cheap fossil fuel energy, when the cost of inaction exceeds the cost of a transition to a low-carbon economy,’ Watson said.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climate change mitigation: At the core of most proposals is the reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions through reducing energy waste and switching to low-carbon power sources of energy. [SUPPORTS]
- Climate change mitigation: Examples of mitigation include reducing energy demand by increasing energy efficiency, phasing out fossil fuels by switching to low-carbon energy sources, and removing carbon dioxide from Earth's atmosphere. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming controversy: Robert Watson found this "very disappointing" and said "We need the public to understand that climate change is serious so they will change their habits and help us move towards a low carbon economy." [SUPPORTS]
- Low-carbon economy: This would make the technologies more affordable and competitive in the global market, particularly when combined with a phasing out of fossil fuel subsidies. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Low-carbon economy: Recent advances in technology and policy will allow renewable energy and energy efficiency to play major roles in displacing fossil fuels, meeting global energy demand while reducing carbon dioxide emissions. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: An additional kick was supplied by an El Niño weather pattern that peaked in 2016 and temporarily warmed much of the surface of the planet, causing the hottest year in a historical record dating to 1880.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- El Niño: An El Niño is associated with warm and very wet weather months in April–October along the coasts of northern Peru and Ecuador, causing major flooding whenever the event is strong or extreme. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- El Niño: However, over time the term has evolved and now refers to the warm and negative phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation and is the warming of the ocean surface or above-average sea surface temperatures in either the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- El Niño: Scientists have also found the chemical signatures of warmer sea surface temperatures and increased rainfall caused by El Niño in coral specimens that are around 13,000 years old. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- El Niño: The event temporarily warmed air temperature by 1.5 °C, compared to the usual increase of 0.25 °C associated with El Niño events. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- La Niña: La Niña is the positive and cold phase of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and is associated with cooler-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: “The global reef crisis does not necessarily mean extinction for coral species.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Conservation biology: The loss of coral reefs, which are predicted to go extinct in the next century, threatens the balance of global biodiversity, will have huge economic impacts, and endangers food security for hundreds of millions of people. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Conservation biology: "One-Third of Reef-Building Corals Face Elevated Extinction Risk from Climate Change and Local Impacts". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Cretaceous–Paleogene extinction event: The Cretaceous–Paleogene (K–Pg) extinction event, also known as the Cretaceous–Tertiary (K–T) extinction, was a sudden mass extinction of three-quarters of the plant and animal species on Earth, approximately 66 million years ago. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Extinction risk from global warming: The extinction risk of global warming is the risk of species becoming extinct due to the effects of global warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Water scarcity: Several fish species have been driven to the edge of extinction and some, such as the disturbed Tokios coral reef formations in the Indian Ocean, are effectively lost. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The corals may save themselves, as many other creatures are attempting to do, by moving toward the poles as the Earth warms, establishing new reefs in cooler water.”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Coral in non-tropical regions: The poleward migration of coral species refers to the phenomenon brought on by rising sea temperatures, wherein corals are colonising cooler climates in an attempt to circumvent coral bleaching, rising sea levels and ocean acidification. [SUPPORTS]
- Coral in non-tropical regions: One way, however, that corals "might escape ocean warming, is to migrate into cooler waters." [SUPPORTS]
- Great Barrier Reef: The corals could then overgrow the submerged hills, to form the present cays and reefs. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Paleocene: In the modern thermohaline circulation, warm tropical water becomes colder and saltier at the poles and sinks (downwelling or deep water formation) that occurs at the North Atlantic near the North Pole and the Southern Ocean near the Antarctic Peninsula. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Paleocene: In the PETM, it is possible deep water formation occurred in saltier tropical waters and moved polewards, which would increase global surface temperatures by warming the poles. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: If water temperatures stay moderate, the damaged sections of the Great Barrier Reef may be covered with corals again in as few as 10 or 15 years
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Coral bleaching: In 2016, bleaching of coral on the Great Barrier Reef killed between 29 and 50 percent of the reef's coral. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Coral reef: Sea level on the Great Barrier Reef has not changed significantly in the last 6,000 years. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Environmental threats to the Great Barrier Reef: When the 2019 Townsville flood waters reached the Great Barrier Reef, the flood plumes covered a large area of corals, even reaching 60 km out to sea. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Great Barrier Reef: On 3 April 2010, the bulk coal carrier Shen Neng 1 ran aground on Douglas Shoals, spilling up to four tonnes of oil into the water and causing extensive damage to the reef. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Great Barrier Reef: In March 2017, the journal Nature published a paper showing that huge sections of an 800-kilometre (500 mi) stretch in the northern part of the reef had died in the course of 2016 due to high water temperatures, an event that the authors put down to the effects of global climate change. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Within a decade, certain kinds of branching and plate coral could be extinct, reef scientists say, along with a variety of small fish that rely on them for protection from predators.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Coastal fish: In turn, they are preyed on by larger predatory fish, seabirds and marine mammals. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Coral reef: This level of variety in the environment benefits many coral reef animals, which, for example, may feed in the sea grass and use the reefs for protection or breeding. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Diversity of fish: Swordfish are teleosts Rose fish are also teleosts Eels are teleosts too So are seahorses Some of the shortest-lived species are gobies, which are small coral reef–dwelling fish. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Glossary of fishery terms: Endangered species - An endangered species is a population of an organism which is at risk of becoming extinct. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Glossary of fishery terms: They are important apex predators feeding on a wide variety of smaller fish and cephalopods. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: “CO2 is certainly a heat-trapping greenhouse gas, but hardly the primary one: Water vapor accounts for about 95 percent of greenhouse gases.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide: Carbon dioxide is the most significant long-lived greenhouse gas in Earth's atmosphere. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: At present, the primary source of CO 2 emissions is the burning of coal, natural gas, and petroleum for electricity and heat. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: The primary greenhouse gases in Earth's atmosphere are water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: The world's most important greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, a by-product of the burning of fossil fuels. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Water vapor: Being a component of Earth's hydrosphere and hydrologic cycle, it is particularly abundant in Earth's atmosphere where it is also a potent greenhouse gas along with other gases such as carbon dioxide and methane. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: A second coat of paint has much less of an effect, while adding a third or fourth coat has almost no impact at all.”
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Alf Ramsey: "Shots which appeared certain to score missed by the width of a coat of paint. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Anti-submarine warfare: However, they ended up having little impact, especially in the latter half of the war. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- The Wizard of Oz (1939 film): The first take ran well, but in the second take, the burst of fire came too soon as a result of which the flames set fire to her green and copper-based face paint, causing third-degree burns on her hands and face. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- The Wizard of Oz (1939 film): During the reshoots in May, the inside of the farm house was painted sepia, and when Dorothy opens the door, it is not Garland, but her stand-in, Bobbie Koshay, wearing a sepia gingham dress, who then backs out of frame; once the camera moves through the door, Garland steps back into frame in her bright blue gingham dress (as noted in DVD extras), and the sepia-painted door briefly tints her with the same color before she emerges from the house's shadow, into the bright glare of the Technicolor lighting. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Tincture (heraldry): At one point, aluminum paint was used for argent, as it was more resistant to oxidation; but its effect also faded with age. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Your odds of correctly guessing the outcome of a flipped coin are 1 in 2, but your odds of guessing correctly twice in a row are only 1 in 4 —
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Gambler's fallacy: Since the first four tosses turn up heads, the probability that the next toss is a head is: Pr ( A 5 | A 1 ∩ A 2 ∩ A 3 ∩ A 4 ) = Pr ( A 5 ) = 1 2 {\displaystyle \Pr \left(A_{5}|A_{1}\cap A_{2}\cap A_{3}\cap A_{4}\right)=\Pr \left(A_{5}\right)={\frac {1}{2}}} . [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Gambler's fallacy: Assuming a fair coin: The probability of 20 heads, then 1 tail is 0.520 × 0.5 = 0.521 The probability of 20 heads, then 1 head is 0.520 × 0.5 = 0.521 The probability of getting 20 heads then 1 tail, and the probability of getting 20 heads then another head are both 1 in 2,097,152. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Probability: If two events, A and B are independent then the joint probability is P ( A  and  B ) = P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A ) P ( B ) , {\displaystyle P(A{\mbox{ and }}B)=P(A\cap B)=P(A)P(B),\,} for example, if two coins are flipped the chance of both being heads is 1 2 × 1 2 = 1 4 {\displaystyle {\tfrac {1}{2}}\times {\tfrac {1}{2}}={\tfrac {1}{4}}} . [SUPPORTS]
- Probability: P ( A  or  B ) = P ( A ∪ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − P ( A ∩ B ) = P ( A ) + P ( B ) − 0 = P ( A ) + P ( B ) {\displaystyle P(A{\mbox{ or }}B)=P(A\cup B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A\cap B)=P(A)+P(B)-0=P(A)+P(B)} For example, the chance of rolling a 1 or 2 on a six-sided die is P ( 1  or  2 ) = P ( 1 ) + P ( 2 ) = 1 6 + 1 6 = 1 3 . [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Random variable: {\displaystyle Y(\omega )={\begin{cases}1,&{\text{if }}\omega ={\text{heads}},\\[6pt]0,&{\text{if }}\omega ={\text{tails}}.\end{cases}}} If the coin is a fair coin, Y has a probability mass function f Y {\displaystyle f_{Y}} given by: f Y ( y ) = { 1 2 , if  y = 1 , 1 2 , if  y = 0 , {\displaystyle f_{Y}(y)={\begin{cases}{\tfrac {1}{2}},&{\text{if }}y=1,\\[6pt]{\tfrac {1}{2}},&{\text{if }}y=0,\end{cases}}} A random variable can also be used to describe the process of rolling dice and the possible outcomes. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: (Multiplying .95 by itself 15 times yields 46.3 percent.)”
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Dimensional analysis: 1000   g   NO x 1 kg   NO x × 46   kg   NO x 1   kmol   NO x × 1   kmol   NO x 22.414   m 3   NO x × 10   m 3   NO x 10 6   m 3   gas × 20   m 3   gas 1   minute × 60   minute 1   hour = 24.63   g   NO x hour {\displaystyle {\frac {1000\ {\ce {g\ NO}}_{x}}{1{\cancel {{\ce {kg\ NO}}_{x}}}}}\times {\frac {46\ {\cancel {{\ce {kg\ NO}}_{x}}}}{1\ {\cancel {{\ce {kmol\ NO}}_{x}}}}}\times {\frac {1\ {\cancel {{\ce {kmol\ NO}}_{x}}}}{22.414\ {\cancel {{\ce {m}}^{3}\ {\ce {NO}}_{x}}}}}\times {\frac {10\ {\cancel {{\ce {m}}^{3}\ {\ce {NO}}_{x}}}}{10^{6}\ {\cancel {{\ce {m}}^{3}\ {\ce {gas}}}}}}\times {\frac {20\ {\cancel {{\ce {m}}^{3}\ {\ce {gas}}}}}{1\ {\cancel {\ce {minute}}}}}\times {\frac {60\ {\cancel {\ce {minute}}}}{1\ {\ce {hour}}}}=24.63\ {\frac {{\ce {g\ NO}}_{x}}{\ce {hour}}}} After canceling out any dimensional units that appear both in the numerators and denominators of the fractions in the above equation, the NOx concentration of 10 ppmv converts to mass flow rate of 24.63 grams per hour. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Rate of return: This is a return of 20,000 USD divided by 100,000 USD, which equals 20 percent. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Rate of return: Assuming returns are reinvested, if the returns over n {\displaystyle n} successive time sub-periods are R 1 , R 2 , R 3 , ⋯ , R n {\displaystyle R_{1},R_{2},R_{3},\cdots ,R_{n}} , then the cumulative return or overall return over the overall time period is the result of compounding the returns together: ( 1 + R 1 ) ( 1 + R 2 ) ⋯ ( 1 + R n ) − 1 {\displaystyle (1+R_{1})(1+R_{2})\cdots (1+R_{n})-1} If the returns are logarithmic returns however, the logarithmic return over the overall time period is: ∑ i = 1 n R l o g , i = R l o g , 1 + R l o g , 2 + R l o g , 3 + ⋯ + R l o g , n {\displaystyle \sum _{i=1}^{n}R_{\mathrm {log} ,i}=R_{\mathrm {log} ,1}+R_{\mathrm {log} ,2}+R_{\mathrm {log} ,3}+\cdots +R_{\mathrm {log} ,n}} This formula applies with an assumption of reinvestment of returns and it means that successive logarithmic returns can be summed, i.e. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Rate of return: For example, assuming reinvestment, the cumulative return for annual returns: 50%, -20%, 30% and -40% is: ( 1 + 0.50 ) ( 1 − 0.20 ) ( 1 + 0.30 ) ( 1 − 0.40 ) − 1 = − 0.0640 = − 6.40 % {\displaystyle (1+0.50)(1-0.20)(1+0.30)(1-0.40)-1=-0.0640=-6.40\%} and the geometric average is: ( 1 + 0.50 ) ( 1 − 0.20 ) ( 1 + 0.30 ) ( 1 − 0.40 ) 4 − 1 = − 0.0164 = − 1.64 % {\displaystyle {\sqrt[{4}]{(1+0.50)(1-0.20)(1+0.30)(1-0.40)}}-1=-0.0164=-1.64\%} which is equal to the annualized cumulative return: 1 − 0.0640 4 − 1 = − 0.0164 {\displaystyle {\sqrt[{4}]{1-0.0640}}-1=-0.0164} In the presence of external flows, such as cash or securities moving into or out of the portfolio, the return should be calculated by compensating for these movements. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Rate of return: The value of an investment is doubled if the return r {\displaystyle r} = +100%, that is, if r l o g {\displaystyle r_{\mathrm {log} }} = ln($200 / $100) = ln(2) = 69.3%. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: While evidence that the earth’s orbital variations impact radiation levels and thus global temperatures does not of course mean that man is not in some way impacting the climate, studies like these highlight that the role man plays on the planet is dwarfed by natural phenomena utterly out of our control.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Global warming controversy: There are many interesting palaeoclimate studies that suggest that solar variability had an influence on pre-industrial climate. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ice age: The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane (the specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from EPICA Dome C in Antarctica over the past 800,000 years); changes in the earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles; the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth–Moon system; the impact of relatively large meteorites and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Milankovitch cycles: Physical evidence shows that the variation in Earth's climate is much more extreme than the variation in the intensity of solar radiation calculated as the Earth's orbit evolves. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Milankovitch cycles: Since orbital variations are predictable, any model that relates orbital variations to climate can be run forward to predict future climate, with two caveats: the mechanism by which orbital forcing influences climate is not definitive; and non-orbital effects can be important (for example, Human impact on the environment principally increases in greenhouse gases result in a warmer climate). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Milankovitch cycles: Milankovitch studied changes in these movements of the Earth, which alter the amount and location of solar radiation reaching the Earth. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: While transient weather variability is playing a key role here, the widespread record warmth across the U.S. so far this year is part of a long-term trend toward more warm temperature records versus cold ones.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Global warming: In the scientific literature, there is an overwhelming consensus that global surface temperatures have increased in recent decades and that the trend is caused mainly by human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: While record-breaking years attract considerable public interest, individual years are less significant than the overall trend. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Global surface temperature is subject to short-term fluctuations that overlie long-term trends, and can temporarily mask or magnify them. [SUPPORTS]
- Instrumental temperature record: This long-term trend is the main cause for the record warmth of 2015 and 2016, surpassing all previous years—even ones with strong El Niño events." [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Little Ice Age: Orbital forcing from cycles in the earth's orbit around the sun has, for the past 2,000 years, caused a long-term northern hemisphere cooling trend that continued through the Middle Ages and the Little Ice Age. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]