MokshithSai15/ClimeAI huggingface dataset:
Claim: Our evolving dynamic planet has survived[…] mass extinctions
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Earth: In the history of life on Earth, biodiversity has gone through long periods of expansion, occasionally punctuated by mass extinctions. [SUPPORTS]
- Earth: Following the Cambrian explosion, 535 Mya, there have been five mass extinctions. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Evolution: The Holocene extinction event is an ongoing mass extinction associated with humanity's expansion across the globe over the past few thousand years. [SUPPORTS]
- Future of Earth: This has resulted in a widespread, ongoing mass extinction of other species during the present geological epoch, now known as the Holocene extinction. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Nature: The last mass extinction occurred some 66 million years ago, when a meteorite collision probably triggered the extinction of the non-avian dinosaurs and other large reptiles, but spared small animals such as mammals. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: South Australia is winning: it has the most unreliable grid in the world outside Africa and the most expensive electricity.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Adelaide: [citation needed] South Australia has the highest retail price for electricity in the country. [SUPPORTS]
- Adelaide: "FactCheck: does South Australia have the 'highest energy prices' in the nation and 'the least reliable grid'?". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- South Australia: South Australia has the lead over other Australian states for its commercialisation and commitment to renewable energy. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- South Australia: It is now the leading producer of wind power in Australia. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- South Australia: Renewable energy is a growing source of electricity in South Australia, and there is potential for growth from this particular industry of the state's economy. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: When South Australians buy electricity at $14,200/MWh, they are paying the equivalent of $400 a litre for petrol.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Energy policy of India: The retail price of petrol is 75.00 Rs/litre in 2012-13. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Energy policy of India: The affordable electricity retail price (860 kcal/kWh at 75% input electricity to shaft power efficiency) to replace petrol (lower heating value 7693 kcal/litre at 33% fuel energy to crank shaft efficiency) is 19.06 Rs/kWh. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Kilowatt hour: The kilowatt-hour (kWh, also kW⋅h or kW h) is a unit of energy equal to 3600 kilojoules (3.6 megajoules). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- National Electricity Market: The maximum price was $14,000/MWh in 2016-2017, $13,800/MWh in 2015-2016, $13,500/MWh in 2014-2015, and $13,100/MWh in 2013-2014. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Solar power: As of 2018, the unsubsidised levelised cost of electricity for utility scale solar power is around $43/MWh. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Never mind that the emissions of carbon dioxide to make and maintain a wind or solar industrial complex are far greater than they will ever save.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide: Since the Industrial Revolution anthropogenic emissions – primarily from use of fossil fuels and deforestation – have rapidly increased its concentration in the atmosphere, leading to global warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Carbon footprint: Some potential options to increase energy efficiency include, but are not limited to: Waste heat recovery systems Insulation for large buildings and combustion chambers Technology upgrades, ie different light sources, lower consumption machines Carbon Footprints from energy consumption can be reduced through the development of alternative energy projects, such as solar and wind energy, which are renewable resources. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Coal: The largest and most long term effect of coal use is the release of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that causes climate change and global warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Engine: Also, resulting greenhouse gas emissions, chiefly carbon dioxide, from the widespread use of engines in the modern industrialized world is contributing to the global greenhouse effect – a primary concern regarding global warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Fossil fuel power station: Electricity generation using carbon-based fuels is responsible for a large fraction of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions worldwide and for 34% of U.S. man-made carbon dioxide emissions in 2010. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Domino-effect of climate events could move Earth into a ‘hothouse’ state
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change (2005 conference): "Domino-effect of climate events could push Earth into a 'hothouse' state". [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: A concern is that self-reinforcing feedbacks will lead to a tipping point, where global temperatures transition to a hothouse climate state even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced or eliminated. [SUPPORTS]
- Paris Agreement: Climate Action Tracker "Domino-effect of climate events could push Earth into a 'hothouse' state". [SUPPORTS]
- Runaway greenhouse effect: "Domino-effect of climate events could move Earth into a 'hothouse' state". [SUPPORTS]
- Tipping points in the climate system: Self-reinforcing feedbacks in the carbon cycle and planetary reflectivity could trigger a cascading set of tipping points that lead the world into a hothouse climate state. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: Previous studies have shown that weakening carbon sinks will add 0.25°C, forest dieback will add 0.11°C, permafrost thaw will add 0.9°C and increased bacterial respiration will add 0.02°C.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Atmospheric methane: The Woods Hole Research Center, citing two 2015 studies on permafrost carbon says there may be a self-reinforcing tipping point where an estimated equivalent of 205 gigatons of carbon dioxide in the form of methane could cause up to 0.5 °C (up to 0.9 °F) warming by the end of the century, which would trigger more warming. [SUPPORTS]
- Climate change feedback: Farquharson and her team guess that about 231,000 square miles (600,000 square kilometers) of permafrost, or about 5.5% of the zone that is permafrost year-round, is vulnerable to rapid surface thawing. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climate change in the Arctic: According to a study published in 2016, about 0.5 °C (0.90 °F) of the warming in the Arctic has been attributed to reductions in sulfate aerosols in Europe since 1980. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Permafrost: "1.5C rise in temperature enough to start permafrost melt, scientists warn". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Permafrost: A global temperature rise of 1.5 °C (2.7 °F) above current levels would be enough to start the thawing of permafrost in Siberia, according to one group of scientists. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: We note that the Earth has never in its history had a quasi-stable state that is around 2C warmer than the preindustrial and suggest that there is substantial risk that the system, itself, will ‘want’ to continue warming because of all of these other processes – even if we stop emissions,” she said.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Global warming: A concern is that self-reinforcing feedbacks will lead to a tipping point, where global temperatures transition to a hothouse climate state even if greenhouse gas emissions are reduced or eliminated. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: A 2018 study tried to identify such a planetary threshold for self-reinforcing feedbacks and found that even a 2 °C (3.6 °F) increase in temperature over pre-industrial levels may be enough to trigger such a hothouse Earth scenario. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Multiple independently produced instrumental datasets confirm that the 2009–2018 decade was 0.93 ± 0.07 °C warmer than the pre-industrial baseline (1850–1900). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Planetary boundaries: The scientists raise the possibility that even if greenhouse gas emissions are substantially reduced to limit warming to 2 degrees, that might be the "threshold" at which self-reinforcing climate feedbacks add additional warming until the climate system stabilizes in a hothouse climate state. [SUPPORTS]
- Planetary boundaries: Study author Katherine Richardson stresses, "We note that the Earth has never in its history had a quasi-stable state that is around 2 °C warmer than the preindustrial and suggest that there is substantial risk that the system, itself, will ‘want’ to continue warming because of all of these other processes – even if we stop emissions. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: The heatwave we now have in Europe is not something that was expected with just 1C of warming
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- 2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves: Ruse, Bulgaria hit 36.6 °C (97.9 °F) on the 13th making it the warmest spot in Europe. [SUPPORTS]
- 2010 Northern Hemisphere heat waves: A heat wave started in Moscow on the 27 June, as temperatures reached 33.1 °C (91.6 °F), and stayed around 30 °C (90 °F) for the rest of the week. [SUPPORTS]
- 2018 British Isles heat wave: 2018's temperature was 16.1 °C (61.0 °F), meaning it ranks as the 18th warmest June recorded in England in the past 359 years, also being the warmest since 1976. [SUPPORTS]
- Heat wave: June 2019 was the hottest month on record worldwide, the effects of this were especially prominent in Europe. [SUPPORTS]
- Heat wave: The effects of climate change have been projected to make heat waves in places such as Europe up to five times more likely to occur. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: The jet stream controls broad weather patterns, such as high-pressure and low-pressure systems.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Cyclone: A polar cyclone is a low-pressure weather system, usually spanning 1,000 kilometres (620 mi) to 2,000 kilometres (1,200 mi), in which the air circulates in a counterclockwise direction in the northern hemisphere, and a clockwise direction in the southern hemisphere. [SUPPORTS]
- Cyclone: A polar low is a small-scale, short-lived atmospheric low-pressure system (depression) that is found over the ocean areas poleward of the main polar front in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Extratropical cyclone: Extratropical cyclones, sometimes called mid-latitude cyclones or wave cyclones, are low-pressure areas which, along with the anticyclones of high-pressure areas, drive the weather over much of the Earth. [SUPPORTS]
- Extratropical cyclone: These types of cyclones are defined as large scale (synoptic) low pressure weather systems that occur in the middle latitudes of the Earth. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Jet stream: This causes surface low pressure and higher pressure at altitude. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: The extent of climate change’s influence on the jet stream is an intense subject of research.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Arctic sea ice decline: Based on effects of Arctic amplification (warming) and ice loss, a study in 2015 concluded that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently in the past two decades, and that such patterns can not be tied to certain seasons. [SUPPORTS]
- Cloud: As a consequence, much research has focused on the response of low and vertical clouds to a changing climate. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Hurricane Harvey: The relationship between climate change and the frequency of hurricanes (or tropical cyclones) is still unclear, and is the subject of continuing research. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Jet stream: Climatological Studies of the Influences of El Niño Southern Oscillation Events in the Precipitation Pattern Over South America During Austral Summer. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Jet stream: The factors that control the number of jet streams in a planetary atmosphere is an active area of research in dynamical meteorology. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Last year, scientists published evidence that the conditions leading up to “stuck jet streams” are becoming more common, with warming in the Arctic seen as a likely culprit.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Arctic Ocean: Warming temperatures in the Arctic may cause large amounts of fresh meltwater to enter the north Atlantic, possibly disrupting global ocean current patterns. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Arctic sea ice decline: One of the study researchers noted, "The expectation is that with further sea ice decline, temperatures in the Arctic will continue to rise, and so will methane emissions from northern wetlands." [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Arctic sea ice decline: Based on effects of Arctic amplification (warming) and ice loss, a study in 2015 concluded that highly amplified jet-stream patterns are occurring more frequently in the past two decades, and that such patterns can not be tied to certain seasons. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Various mechanisms have been identified that might explain extreme weather in mid-latitudes from the rapidly warming Arctic, such as the jet stream becoming more erratic. [SUPPORTS]
- Jet stream: Trends such as Arctic sea ice decline, reduced snow cover, evapotranspiration patterns, and other weather anomalies have caused the Arctic to heat up faster than other parts of the globe (polar amplification). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Gone are the days when scientists drew a bright line dividing weather and climate.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Alpine climate: Alpine climate is the typical weather (climate) for the regions above the tree line. [SUPPORTS]
- Climate: If the air mass is colder than the ground below it, it is labeled k. If the air mass is warmer than the ground below it, it is labeled w. While air mass identification was originally used in weather forecasting during the 1950s, climatologists began to establish synoptic climatologies based on this idea in 1973. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Köppen climate classification: These climates are in the polar front region in winter, and thus have moderate temperatures and changeable, rainy weather. [SUPPORTS]
- Oceanic climate: With the air coming from the ocean predominates the cloudy weather with constant precipitation even in the colder months and the temperature is strongly enlivened. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Weather: Aside from climatic changes that have caused the gradual drift of populations (for example the desertification of the Middle East, and the formation of land bridges during glacial periods), extreme weather events have caused smaller scale population movements and intruded directly in historical events. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The heaviest precipitation events will become more frequent and more extreme.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climate of India: Almost all of India is flood-prone, and extreme precipitation events, such as flash floods and torrential rains, have become increasingly common in central India over the past several decades, coinciding with rising temperatures. [SUPPORTS]
- Rain: "Global Measured Extremes of Temperature and Precipitation". [SUPPORTS]
- Supercell: This is generally the area of heaviest and most widespread precipitation. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Tropical cyclone: The eyewall is where the greatest wind speeds are found, air rises most rapidly, clouds reach their highest altitude, and precipitation is the heaviest. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Uruguay: The heaviest precipitation occurs during the autumn months, although more frequent rainy spells occur in winter. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: In Alaska, brown bears are changing their feeding habits to eat elderberries that ripen earlier.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
- Brown bear: They often feed on a variety of plant life, including berries, grasses, flowers, acorns and pine cones, as well as fungi such as mushrooms. [SUPPORTS]
- Brown bear: Fruits, including berries, become increasingly important during summer and early autumn. [SUPPORTS]
- Brown bear: In the Kamchatka peninsula and several parts of coastal Alaska, brown bears feed mostly on spawning salmon, whose nutrition and abundance explain the enormous size of the bears in these areas. [REFUTES]
- Grizzly bear: Grizzlies in Alaska supplement their diet of salmon and clams with sedge grass and berries. [SUPPORTS]
- Kodiak bear: As climate change causes elderberries to ripen earlier, berry season is now overlapping with salmon season and some bears are abandoning salmon runs to focus on the berries. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: The April low temperatures here are now about 6 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than they used to be.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Climate of Chicago: At O'Hare, temperatures as low as 7 °F (−14 °C) and 31 °F (−1 °C) have been recorded as late as April 7 and May 21, respectively. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Florida: With an average daily temperature of 70.7 °F (21.5 °C), it is the warmest state in the U.S. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Montclair, New Jersey: From April to June and from September to early November, Montclair experiences temperatures from the lower 60s to the lower 70s. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- New Jersey: Since 1895, average temperatures have climbed by almost 3.6 degrees Fahrenheit, double the average for the other Lower 48 states. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Pago Pago: A temperature range of about three degrees Fahrenheit separates the average monthly temperatures of the coolest and hottest months. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Species that have a lot of plasticity tend to be generalists.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Effects of climate change on terrestrial animals: The American coyote is an example of a generalist. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Invasive species: Common invasive species traits include the following: Fast growth Rapid reproduction High dispersal ability Phenotype plasticity (the ability to alter growth form to suit current conditions) Tolerance of a wide range of environmental conditions (Ecological competence) Ability to live off of a wide range of food types (generalist) Association with humans Prior successful invasions Typically, an introduced species must survive at low population densities before it becomes invasive in a new location. [SUPPORTS]
- Invasive species: Intraspecific phenotypic plasticity, pre-adaptation and post-introduction evolution are all major factors in adaptive evolution. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Species: phenotypic plasticity, multiple life-cycle stages). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Vine: Vines are unique in that they have multiple evolutionary origins and a wide range of phenotypic plasticity. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: And there is a lot of evidence that climate change is diminishing biodiversity, which can be seen in these alpine meadows as well.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Biodiversity: Climate change has proven to affect biodiversity and evidence supporting the altering effects is widespread. [SUPPORTS]
- Climate change in the Arctic: "Dominance hierarchies, diversity and species richness of vascular plants in an alpine meadow: contrasting short and medium term responses to simulated global change". [SUPPORTS]
- Deforestation and climate change: As development of the country's caused a decline in forest cover, a reduction in biodiversity was seen in those areas. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Effects of climate change on plant biodiversity: Increased temperatures may allow herbivores to expand further into alpine regions, significant impacting the composition of alpine herbfields. [SUPPORTS]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: The statement goes on to assert that "evidence is accumulating that wildlife and wildlife habitats have been and will continue to be significantly affected by ongoing large-scale rapid climate change." [SUPPORTS]
Claim: current climate predictions may underestimate long-term warming by as much as a factor of two
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Global warming: "A novel probabilistic forecast system predicting anomalously warm 2018–2022 reinforcing the long-term global warming trend". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Climate model projections summarized in the report indicated that during the 21st century the global surface temperature is likely to rise a further 0.3 to 1.7 °C (0.5 to 3.1 °F) in a moderate scenario, or as much as 2.6 to 4.8 °C (4.7 to 8.6 °F) in an extreme scenario, depending on the rate of future greenhouse gas emissions and on climate feedback effects. [SUPPORTS]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Projections based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios suggest warming over the 21st century at a more rapid rate than that experienced for at least the last 10,000 years. [SUPPORTS]
- Sea level rise: A conservative estimate of the long-term projections is that each Celsius degree of temperature rise triggers a sea level rise of approximately 2.3 meters (4.2 ft/degree Fahrenheit) over a period of two millennia: an example of climate inertia. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: "Long-term persistence enhances uncertainty about anthropogenic warming of Antarctica". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: This could mean the landmark Paris Climate Agreement – which seeks to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels – may not be enough to ward off catastrophe.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Global warming: Although the parties to the UNFCCC have agreed that deep cuts in emissions are required and that global warming should be limited to well below 2 °C (3.6 °F) in the Paris Agreement of 2016, the Earth's average surface temperature has already increased by about half this threshold and current pledges by countries to cut emissions are inadequate to limit future warming. [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: Parties associated with the Accord aim to limit the future increase in global mean temperature to below 2 °C. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: In 2015 all UN countries negotiated the Paris Agreement, which aims to keep climate change well below 2 °C. [SUPPORTS]
- Paris Agreement: A 2018 published study points at a threshold at which temperatures could rise to 4 or 5 degrees compared to the pre-industrial levels, through self-reinforcing feedbacks in the climate system, suggesting this threshold is below the 2-degree temperature target, agreed upon by the Paris climate deal. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Paris Agreement: The Paris Agreement's long-term temperature goal is to keep the increase in global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels; and to pursue efforts to limit the increase to 1.5 °C, recognizing that this would substantially reduce the risks and impacts of climate change. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: In looking at Earth’s past, scientists can predict what the future will look like
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
- Big data: Fed by a large number of data on past experiences, algorithms can predict future development if the future is similar to the past. [SUPPORTS]
- Global catastrophic risk: Scientists do not predict that a natural ice age will occur anytime soon. [REFUTES]
- Global catastrophic risk: Historically, the ability of experts to predict the future over these timescales has proved very limited. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Physics: For example, in the study of the origin of the earth, one can reasonably model earth's mass, temperature, and rate of rotation, as a function of time allowing one to extrapolate forward or backward in time and so predict future or prior events. [SUPPORTS]
- Scientific method: Scientific inquiry generally aims to obtain knowledge in the form of testable explanations that scientists can use to predict the results of future experiments. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: But as the change gets larger or more persistent … it appears they underestimate climate change
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Atmospheric methane: indicates that current greenhouse gas reduction policies in the US are based on what appear to be significant underestimates of anthropogenic methane emissions. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Models not only project different future temperature with different emissions of greenhouse gases, but also do not fully agree on the strength of different feedbacks on climate sensitivity and the amount of inertia of the system. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Sea level rise since 1990 was underestimated in older models, but now agrees well with observations. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Abrupt climate change, tipping points in the climate system: Climate change could result in global, large-scale changes. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: "How the oceans absorb carbon dioxide is critical for predicting climate change". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]