MokshithSai15/ClimeAI huggingface dataset:
Claim: The fact that so many studies on climate change don't bother to endorse the consensus position is significant because scientists have largely moved from what's causing global warming onto discussing details of the problem (eg - how fast, how soon, impacts, etc).
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climate change (general concept): The scientific consensus on climate change is "that climate is changing and that these changes are in large part caused by human activities", and it "is largely irreversible". [SUPPORTS]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: This consensus is supported by various studies of scientists' opinions and by position statements of scientific organizations, many of which explicitly agree with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesis reports. [SUPPORTS]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS) in 2007, issued a Statement on Environment and Sustainable Growth: As reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), most of the observed global warming since the mid-20th century is very likely due to human-produced emission of greenhouse gases and this warming will continue unabated if present anthropogenic emissions continue or, worse, expand without control. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: AAWV Position Statement on Climate Change, Wildlife Diseases, and Wildlife Health "There is widespread scientific agreement that the world's climate is changing and that the weight of evidence demonstrates that anthropogenic factors have and will continue to contribute significantly to global warming and climate change. [SUPPORTS]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: There is an extensive discussion in the scientific literature on what policies might be effective in responding to climate change. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Klaus-Martin Schulte examined all papers published from 2004 to February 2007.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- February 8: Hippocrates and Medical Education: Selected Papers Presented at the XIIth International Hippocrates Colloquium, Universiteit Leiden, 24-26 August 2005. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Hitler Diaries: The Hitler Diaries (German: Hitler-Tagebücher) were a series of sixty volumes of journals purportedly written by Adolf Hitler, but forged by Konrad Kujau between 1981 and 1983. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Hitler Diaries: More importantly, according to Harris, it was decided that they should not have the material examined by a forensic scientist or historian until every diary had been obtained. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Hitler Diaries: While the discussions between Murdoch and Sorge were taking place, the diaries were examined by Broyle and his Newsweek team. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Hitler Diaries: 29 July 2002. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: A drop of volcanic activity in the early 20th century may have had a warming effect.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- 1257 Samalas eruption: Sea surface temperatures too decreased by 0.3–2.2 °C (0.54–3.96 °F), triggering changes in the ocean circulations. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- African humid period: In addition, the end of the 20th century drying trend may be due to global warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climate change (general concept): Notable eruptions in the historical records are the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo which lowered global temperatures by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) for up to three years, and the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora causing the Year Without a Summer. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Cloud: Most of the sunlight that reaches the ground is absorbed, warming the surface, which emits radiation upward at longer, infrared, wavelengths. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Lake Tahoe: Analysis of the temperature records in Lake Tahoe has shown that the lake warmed (between 1969 and 2002) at an average rate of 0.027 °F (0.015 °C) per year. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: However, volcanoes have had very little impact on the last 40 years of global warming.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Climate change (general concept): Notable eruptions in the historical records are the 1991 eruption of Mount Pinatubo which lowered global temperatures by about 0.5 °C (0.9 °F) for up to three years, and the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora causing the Year Without a Summer. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Huaynaputina: The eruption had a noticeable impact on growth conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, which were the worst of the last 600 years, with summers being on average 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) colder than the mean. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ice age: The consensus is that several factors are important: atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane (the specific levels of the previously mentioned gases are now able to be seen with the new ice core samples from EPICA Dome C in Antarctica over the past 800,000 years); changes in the earth's orbit around the Sun known as Milankovitch cycles; the motion of tectonic plates resulting in changes in the relative location and amount of continental and oceanic crust on the earth's surface, which affect wind and ocean currents; variations in solar output; the orbital dynamics of the Earth–Moon system; the impact of relatively large meteorites and volcanism including eruptions of supervolcanoes. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Younger Dryas: The Younger Dryas (around 12,800 to 11,550 years BP) was a return to glacial conditions after the Late Glacial Interstadial, which temporarily reversed the gradual climatic warming after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) started receding around 20,000 BP. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Younger Dryas: "Volcanic influence on centennial to millennial Holocene Greenland temperature change". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: When stomata-derived CO2 (red) is compared to ice core-derived CO2 (blue), the stomata generally show much more variability in the atmospheric CO2 level and often show levels much higher than the ice cores.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere: Relevant to this dispute is the observation that Greenland ice cores often report higher and more variable CO 2 values than similar measurements in Antarctica. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: One study using evidence from stomata of fossilized leaves suggests greater variability, with carbon dioxide mole fractions above 300 ppm during the period seven to ten thousand years ago, though others have argued that these findings more likely reflect calibration or contamination problems rather than actual CO 2 variability. [SUPPORTS]
- Greenhouse gas: Because of the way air is trapped in ice (pores in the ice close off slowly to form bubbles deep within the firn) and the time period represented in each ice sample analyzed, these figures represent averages of atmospheric concentrations of up to a few centuries rather than annual or decadal levels. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenhouse gas: Measured atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide are currently 100 ppm higher than pre-industrial levels. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ice core: The proportions of different oxygen and hydrogen isotopes provide information about ancient temperatures, and the air trapped in tiny bubbles can be analysed to determine the level of atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Arctic summer sea ice has shrunk by an area equal to Western Australia, and might be all gone in a decade.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Arctic Ocean: Research shows that the Arctic may become ice-free in the summer for the first time in human history by 2040. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Arctic Ocean: The summer shrinking of the ice has been quoted at 50%. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Arctic: There is a large variance in predictions of Arctic sea ice loss, with models showing near-complete to complete loss in September from 2040 to some time well beyond 2100. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Arctic: About half of the analyzed models show near-complete to complete sea ice loss in September by the year 2100. [REFUTES]
- Global warming: Global warming has led to decades of shrinking and thinning of the Arctic sea ice, making it vulnerable to atmospheric anomalies. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Thanks to a rapid rebound in recent months, global sea ice levels now equal those seen 29 years ago, when the year 1979 also drew to a close.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
- Glacier: This post-glacial rebound, which proceeds very slowly after the melting of the ice sheet or glacier, is currently occurring in measurable amounts in Scandinavia and the Great Lakes region of North America. [REFUTES]
- Ice age: Due to the high viscosity of the Earth's mantle, the flow of mantle rocks which controls the rebound process is very slow—at a rate of about 1 cm/year near the center of rebound area today. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Post-glacial rebound: Unusually rapid (up to 4.1 cm/year) present glacial isostatic rebound due to recent ice mass losses in the Amundsen Sea embayment region of Antarctica coupled with low regional mantle viscosity is predicted to provide a modest stabilizing influence on marine ice sheet instability in West Antarctica, but likely not to a sufficient degree to arrest it. [SUPPORTS]
- Post-glacial rebound: Thus global sea level fell during glaciation. [SUPPORTS]
- Post-glacial rebound: Recent global warming has caused mountain glaciers and the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to melt and global sea level to rise. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: In fact, the rate of increase from September onward is the fastest rate of change on record, either upwards or downwards.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Financial crisis of 2007–08: It then entered a pronounced decline, which accelerated markedly in October 2008. [REFUTES]
- Financial crisis of 2007–08: The TED spread, an indicator of perceived credit risk in the general economy, spiked up in July 2007, remained volatile for a year, then spiked even higher in September 2008, reaching a record 4.65% on October 10, 2008. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Financial crisis of 2007–08: The US unemployment rate increased to 10.1% by October 2009, the highest rate since 1983 and roughly twice the pre-crisis rate. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Financial crisis of 2007–08: Already-rising default rates on "subprime" and adjustable-rate mortgages (ARM) began to increase quickly thereafter. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Tendency of the rate of profit to fall: From September 2018 onward, as the economic and political news worsened, the bloated US stockmarkets began to deflate, while the VIX index trebled. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The data is being reported by the University of Illinois's Arctic Climate Research Center, and is derived from satellite observations of the Northern and Southern hemisphere polar regions (Daily Tech).
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Cryosphere: Satellite data since the early 1970s reveal considerable seasonal, regional, and interannual variability in the sea-ice covers of both hemispheres. [SUPPORTS]
- Extratropical cyclone: It was developed completely from surface-based weather observations, including descriptions of clouds found near frontal boundaries. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Precipitation: As a result, the modern global record of precipitation largely depends on satellite observations. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Precipitation: The IR estimates have rather low skill at short time and space scales, but are available very frequently (15 minutes or more often) from satellites in geosynchronous Earth orbit. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Snow: These models typically derive snow water equivalent (SWE) in some manner from satellite observations of snow cover. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Ice mass loss is occuring at an accelerated rate in Greenland, Antarctica and globally from inland glaciers.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Ice sheet: The Greenland, and possibly the Antarctic, ice sheets have been losing mass recently, because losses by ablation including outlet glaciers exceed accumulation of snowfall. [SUPPORTS]
- Pine Island Glacier: Pine Island Glacier (PIG) is a large ice stream, and the fastest melting glacier in Antarctica, responsible for about 25% of Antarctica's ice loss. [SUPPORTS]
- Retreat of glaciers since 1850: The significant accelerations noted on the three largest glaciers began at the calving front and propagated inland and are not seasonal in nature. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Retreat of glaciers since 1850: "Sharply increased mass loss from glaciers and ice caps in theCanadian Arctic Archipelago". [SUPPORTS]
- Sea level rise: "A tipping point in refreezing accelerates mass loss of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps". [SUPPORTS]
Claim: Arctic sea ice is also falling at an accelerated rate.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Arctic sea ice decline: The fast rate of the sea ice melting is resulting in the oceans absorbing and heating up the Arctic. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Arctic sea ice decline: Accelerated decline in the Arctic sea ice. [SUPPORTS]
- Arctic: "Ice melting across globe at accelerating rate, NASA says." [SUPPORTS]
- Climate change in the Arctic: The rate of the decline in entire Arctic ice coverage is accelerating. [SUPPORTS]
- Sea level rise: "Antarctica ice melt has accelerated by 280% in the last 4 decades". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The exception to this ice loss is Antarctic sea ice which has been growing despite the warming Southern Ocean.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Antarctic sea ice: Since the ocean off the Antarctic coast usually is much warmer than the air over it, the extent of the sea ice is largely controlled by the winds and currents that push it northwards. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Antarctic sea ice: The net change is a slight increase in the area of sea ice in the Antarctic seas (unlike the Arctic Ocean, which is showing a much stronger decrease in the area of sea ice). [SUPPORTS]
- Antarctic sea ice: Increased sea ice extent does not indicate that the Southern Ocean is cooling, since the Southern Ocean is warming. [SUPPORTS]
- Antarctic sea ice: Sea ice coverage in the Arctic has shrunk at a much faster rate than it has expanded in the Southern Ocean. [SUPPORTS]
- Antarctica: Sea ice extent expands annually in the Antarctic winter and most of this ice melts in the summer. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: Together, these two unaltered [sea level] datasets indicate that global mean sea level trend has remained stable over the entire period 1992-2007, altogether eliminating the apparent 3.2 mm/year rate of sea-level rise arising from the “adjusted” data.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Jason-1: Measurements by Jason-1 indicate that mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of 2.28 millimeters (.09 inches) per year since 2001. [REFUTES]
- Physical impacts of climate change: Since 1900, the sea level has risen at an average of 1.7 mm (0.067 in) per year; since 1993, satellite altimetry from TOPEX/Poseidon indicates a rate of about 3 mm (0.12 in) per year. [REFUTES]
- Sea level rise: Current rates of sea level rise from satellite altimetry have been estimated to be 3.0 ± 0.4 millimetres (0.118 ± 0.016 in) per year for the period 1993–2017. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: This network was used, in combination with satellite altimeter data, to establish that global mean sea-level rose 19.5 cm (7.7 in) between 1870 and 2004 at an average rate of about 1.44 mm/yr (1.7 mm/yr during the 20th century). [REFUTES]
- Sea level rise: Data collected by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) in Australia show the current global mean sea level trend to be 3.2 mm (0.13 in) per year, a doubling of the rate during the 20th century. [REFUTES]
Claim: The claim sea level isn’t rising is based on blatantly doctored graphs and conspiracy theories that are contradicted by empirical observational data.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Econometrics: More precisely, it is "the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Falsifiability: In the philosophy of science, verificationism holds that a statement must, in principle, be empirically verifiable in order that it be scientific. [SUPPORTS]
- Logical positivism: A scientific theory would be stated with its method of verification, whereby a logical calculus or empirical operation could verify its falsity or truth. [SUPPORTS]
- Science: Both natural and social sciences are empirical sciences as their knowledge are based on empirical observations and are capable of being tested for its validity by other researchers working under the same conditions. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Science: Natural science is concerned with the description, prediction, and understanding of natural phenomena based on empirical evidence from observation and experimentation. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: The original global temperature schematic which appeared in the IPCC First Assessment Report and seemed to show the Medieval Warm Period (MWP) hotter than Present was based on the central England temperature record, and ended in the 1950s.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: This graph extended the similar graph in Figure 3.20 from the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995, and differed from a schematic in the first assessment report that lacked temperature units, but appeared to depict larger global temperature variations over the past 1000 years, and higher temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period than the mid 20th century. [SUPPORTS]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: The schematic was not an actual plot of data, and was based on a diagram of temperatures in central England, with temperatures increased on the basis of documentary evidence of Medieval vineyards in England. [SUPPORTS]
- Medieval Warm Period: The Medieval Warm Period (MWP) also known as the Medieval Climate Optimum, or Medieval Climatic Anomaly was a time of warm climate in the North Atlantic region lasting from c. 950 to c. 1250. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Medieval Warm Period: However, that view was questioned by other researchers; the IPCC First Assessment Report of 1990 discussed the "Medieval Warm Period around 1000 AD (which may not have been global) and the Little Ice Age which ended only in the middle to late nineteenth century." [SUPPORTS]
- Soon and Baliunas controversy: The IPCC First Assessment Report included a "schematic diagram" of global temperature variations over the last thousand years which has been traced to a graph based loosely on Hubert Lamb's 1965 paper. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: "by the 2001 [IPCC] climate assessment...the Medieval Warm Period had been ingeniously wiped out.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Hockey stick controversy: The IPCC First Assessment Report in 1990 noted evidence that Holocene climatic optimum around 5,000-6,000 years ago had been warmer than the present (at least in summer) and that in some areas there had been exceptional warmth during "a shorter Medieval Warm Period (which may not have been global)" about AD 950-1250, followed by a cooler period of the Little Ice Age which ended only in the middle to late nineteenth century. [SUPPORTS]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: This graph extended the similar graph in Figure 3.20 from the IPCC Second Assessment Report of 1995, and differed from a schematic in the first assessment report that lacked temperature units, but appeared to depict larger global temperature variations over the past 1000 years, and higher temperatures during the Medieval Warm Period than the mid 20th century. [SUPPORTS]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: These values are much greater than the 9–88 cm as projected by the IPCC itself in its Third Assessment Report, published in 2001". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: "We concur with the climate science assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 2001 ... We endorse the conclusions of the IPCC assessment..." Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Medieval Warm Period: The IPCC Third Assessment Report from 2001 then summarized research: "evidence does not support globally synchronous periods of anomalous cold or warmth over this time frame, and the conventional terms of 'Little Ice Age' and 'Medieval Warm Period' appear to have limited utility in describing trends in hemispheric or global mean temperature changes in past centuries." [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The Ozone Layer stops UV radiation from entering our atmosphere.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Earth: The ozone layer blocks ultraviolet solar radiation, permitting life on land. [SUPPORTS]
- Ozone layer: Although the concentration of the ozone in the ozone layer is very small, it is vitally important to life because it absorbs biologically harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation coming from the sun. [SUPPORTS]
- Ozone layer: The breakdown of ozone in the stratosphere results in reduced absorption of ultraviolet radiation. [SUPPORTS]
- Ozone layer: Consequently, unabsorbed and dangerous ultraviolet radiation is able to reach the Earth's surface at a higher intensity. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ozone: It is present in very low concentrations throughout the latter, with its highest concentration high in the ozone layer of the stratosphere, which absorbs most of the Sun's ultraviolet (UV) radiation. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: At present, climate forecasts even as little as six weeks ahead can be diametrically the opposite of what actually occurs, even if the forecasts are limited to a small region of the planet.'
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Ensemble forecasting: These uncertainties limit forecast model accuracy to about six days into the future. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ensemble forecasting: As proposed by Edward Lorenz in 1963, it is impossible for long-range forecasts—those made more than two weeks in advance—to predict the state of the atmosphere with any degree of skill owing to the chaotic nature of the fluid dynamics equations involved. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Meteorology: Mathematical models used to predict the long term weather of the Earth (climate models), have been developed that have a resolution today that are as coarse as the older weather prediction models. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Meteorology: Weather forecasting is the application of science and technology to predict the state of the atmosphere at a future time and given location. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Weather forecasting: As proposed by Edward Lorenz in 1963, long range forecasts, those made at a range of two weeks or more, are impossible to definitively predict the state of the atmosphere, owing to the chaotic nature of the fluid dynamics equations involved. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Weather is chaotic because air is light, it has low friction and viscosity, it expands strongly when in contact with hot surfaces and it conducts heat poorly.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Friction: The work done by friction can translate into deformation, wear, and heat that can affect the contact surface properties (even the coefficient of friction between the surfaces). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Liquid: Liquids tend to have better thermal conductivity than gases, and the ability to flow makes a liquid suitable for removing excess heat from mechanical components. [SUPPORTS]
- Viscosity: The bulk viscosity (also called volume viscosity) expresses a type of internal friction that resists the shearless compression or expansion of a fluid. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Weather: Weather is driven by air pressure, temperature and moisture differences between one place and another. [SUPPORTS]
- Weather: A hot surface warms the air above it causing it to expand and lower the density and the resulting surface air pressure. [SUPPORTS]