MokshithSai15/ClimeAI huggingface dataset:
Claim: “‘Those eruptions happened relatively early in our study period, which pushed down temperatures in the first part of the dataset, which caused the overall record to show an exaggerated warming trend,’ Christy said.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Global warming controversy: A study released in 2009, combined historical weather station data with satellite measurements to deduce past temperatures over large regions of the continent, and these temperatures indicate an overall warming trend. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- John Christy: This was once quite controversial: From the beginning of the satellite record in late 1978 into 1998 it showed a net global cooling trend, although ground measurements and instruments carried aloft by balloons showed warming in many areas. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- John Christy: Part of the cooling trend seen by the satellites can be attributed to several years of cooler than normal temperatures and cooling caused by the eruption of the Mount Pinatubo volcano. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- John Christy: Since the data correction of August 1998 (and the major La Niña Pacific Ocean warming event of the same year), data collected by satellite instruments has shown an average global warming trend in the atmosphere. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- John Christy: From November 1978 through March 2011, Earth's atmosphere has warmed at an average rate of about 0.14 C per decade, according to the UAHuntsville satellite record. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: ‘While volcanic eruptions are natural events, it was the timing of these that had such a noticeable effect on the trend.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- 1257 Samalas eruption: The Little Ice Age was a period of several centuries during the last millennium during which global temperatures were depressed; the cooling was associated with volcanic eruptions. [SUPPORTS]
- 1257 Samalas eruption: The deposits showed that climate disturbances reported at that time were due to a volcanic event, the global spread indicating a tropical volcano as the cause. [SUPPORTS]
- Climate change (general concept): Small eruptions, with injections of less than 0.1 Mt of sulfur dioxide into the stratosphere, affect the atmosphere only subtly, as temperature changes are comparable with natural variability. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Volcanism: The amount of gas and ash emitted by volcanic eruptions has a significant effect on the Earth's climate. [SUPPORTS]
- Volcano: The 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora created global climate anomalies that became known as the "Year Without a Summer" because of the effect on North American and European weather. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: If the same eruptions had happened near the more recent end of the dataset, they could have pushed the overall trend into negative numbers, or a long-term cooling,’ Christy said.”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Global cooling: Climatic oscillations at higher frequencies are not predicted... the results indicate that the long-term trend over the next 20,000 years is towards extensive Northern Hemisphere glaciation and cooler climate". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming hiatus: They used computer simulations of future climate to show that it was "possible, and indeed likely, to have a period as long as a decade or two of 'cooling' or no warming superimposed on a longer-term warming trend." [SUPPORTS]
- John Christy: Part of the cooling trend seen by the satellites can be attributed to several years of cooler than normal temperatures and cooling caused by the eruption of the Mount Pinatubo volcano. [SUPPORTS]
- Phanerozoic: The Late Cretaceous featured a cooling trend that would continue into the Cenozoic Era. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Satellite temperature measurements: The long term cooling in the lower stratosphere occurred in two downward steps in temperature both after the transient warming related to explosive volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo, this behavior of the global stratospheric temperature has been attributed to global ozone concentration variation in the two years following volcanic eruptions. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: policies based on previous climate model output and predictions might need to be reconsidered
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- General circulation model: These models are the basis for model predictions of future climate, such as are discussed by the IPCC. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- General circulation model: GCMs and global climate models are used for weather forecasting, understanding the climate, and forecasting climate change. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: The 2017 United States-published National Climate Assessment notes that "climate models may still be underestimating or missing relevant feedback processes". [SUPPORTS]
- Science: For example, it is used in quantitative scientific modeling, which can generate new hypotheses and predictions to be tested. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sensitivity analysis: Effective Groundwater Model Calibration, with Analysis of Data, Sensitivities, Predictions, and Uncertainty. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Before human burning of fossil fuels triggered global warming, the continent’s ice was in relative balance
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Antarctica: The mass balance of the East Antarctic Ice Sheet as a whole is thought to be slightly positive (lowering sea level) or near to balance. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Coal: The largest and most long term effect of coal use is the release of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas that causes climate change and global warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: But, more accurately, global warming is the mainly human-caused increase in global surface temperatures and its projected continuation, while climate change includes both global warming and its effects, such as changes in precipitation. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Ice age: The reflection of energy into space resulted in a global cooling, triggering the Pleistocene Ice Age. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum: "Release of methane from a volcanic basin as a mechanism for initial Eocene global warming". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: With marine ice cliff instability, sea-level rise for the next century is potentially much larger than we thought it might be five or 10 years ago
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Global warming: Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects that in a very high emissions scenario the sea level could rise by 61–110 cm. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: For instance, a 2016 study led by Jim Hansen concluded that based on past climate change data, sea level rise could accelerate exponentially in the coming decades, with a doubling time of 10, 20 or 40 years, respectively, raising the ocean by several meters in 50, 100 or 200 years. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: According to the Fourth (2017) National Climate Assessment (NCA) of the United States it is very likely sea level will rise between 30 and 130 cm (1.0–4.3 feet) in 2100 compared to the year 2000. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: For instance, Mercer published a study in 1978 predicting that anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming and its potential effects on climate in the 21st century could cause a sea level rise of around 5 metres (16 ft) from melting of the West Antarctic ice-sheet alone. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: A number of later studies have concluded that a global sea level rise of 200 to 270 cm (6.6 to 8.9 ft) this century is "physically plausible". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: “Instead of a three-foot increase in ocean levels by the end of the century, six feet was more likely, according to DeConto and Pollard’s findings.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
- Antarctica: If the sheet were to break down, ocean levels would rise by several metres in a relatively geologically short period of time, perhaps a matter of centuries. [SUPPORTS]
- Lake Tahoe: Historically, the clarity of Lake Tahoe continued to decrease through 2010, when the average Secchi depth, 64.4 feet (19.6 m), was the second lowest ever recorded (the lowest was 64.1 feet (19.5 m) in 1997). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Miami: Beginning some 130,000 years ago, the Sangamonian Stage raised sea levels to approximately 25 feet (8 m) above the current level. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Miami: By 15,000 years ago, the sea level had dropped 300 to 350 feet (90 to 110 m) below the current level. [REFUTES]
- River Thames: Combined, this and other studies suggest that the Thames sea-level has risen more than 30 m during the Holocene at a rate of around 5–6 mm per year from 10,000 to 6,000 years ago. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Pollard and DeConto are the first to admit that their model is still crude, but its results have pushed the entire scientific community into emergency mode.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Science: In addition to testing hypotheses, scientists may also generate a model, an attempt to describe or depict the phenomenon in terms of a logical, physical or mathematical representation and to generate new hypotheses that can be tested, based on observable phenomena. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific method: Scientific models vary in the extent to which they have been experimentally tested and for how long, and in their acceptance in the scientific community. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific method: Crucially, experimental and theoretical results must be reproduced by others within the scientific community. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific method: One key point was that they realized that the quickest way to reach a result was not to continue a mathematical analysis, but to build a physical model. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific method: In essence it is a process of accelerated and rigorous trial and error building on previous knowledge to refine an existing hypothesis, or discarding it altogether to find a better model. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Scientists used to think that ice sheets could take millennia to respond to changing climates
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climatology: While scientists knew of past climate change such as the ice ages, the concept of climate as unchanging was useful in the development of a general theory of what determines climate. [SUPPORTS]
- Greenland ice sheet: They offered a conclusion that the "coupling between surface melting and ice-sheet flow provides a mechanism for rapid, large-scale, dynamic responses of ice sheets to climate warming". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Greenland ice sheet: An ice sheet response time of centuries seems probable, and we cannot rule out large changes on decadal time-scales once wide-scale surface melt is underway." [SUPPORTS]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: Its conclusions are summarized below: "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, and since the 1950s, many of the observed changes are unprecedented over decades to millennia." [SUPPORTS]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: There is growing evidence that our climate is changing. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: “‘If you remove the ice shelf, there’s a potential that not just ice-cliff instabilities will start occurring, but a process called marine ice-sheet instabilities,’ says Matthew Wise, a polar scientist at the University of Cambridge.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Antarctica: Melting of floating ice shelves (ice that originated on the land) does not in itself contribute much to sea-level rise (since the ice displaces only its own mass of water). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Sea level rise: Secondly, melting of the ice shelves, the floating extensions of the ice sheet, leads to a process named the Marine Ice Cliff Instability. [SUPPORTS]
- Sea level rise: "Potential Antarctic Ice Sheet retreat driven by hydrofracturing and ice cliff failure". [SUPPORTS]
- West Antarctic Ice Sheet: The WAIS is classified as a marine-based ice sheet, meaning that its bed lies well below sea level and its edges flow into floating ice shelves. [SUPPORTS]
- West Antarctic Ice Sheet: They proposed that changes in air circulation patterns have led to increased upwelling of warm, deep ocean water along the coast of Antarctica and that this warm water has increased melting of floating ice shelves at the edge of the ice sheet. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: A fast transition away from fossil fuels in the next few decades could be enough to put off rapid sea-level rise for centuries.
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
- Global warming: "The rate of sea-level rise". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Over the 21st century, the IPCC projects that in a very high emissions scenario the sea level could rise by 61–110 cm. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: Sea level rise will continue over many centuries. [REFUTES]
- Nuclear power: Slowing global warming requires a transition to a low-carbon economy, mainly by burning far less fossil fuel. [SUPPORTS]
- Sustainable energy: The pathways that are consistent with limiting warning to approximately 1.5 °C describe a rapid transition towards producing electricity through lower-emission methods, and increasing use of electricity instead of other fuels in sectors such as transportation. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The sea was much colder than previously thought, the study suggests, indicating that climate change is advancing at an unprecedented rate”
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Climate change in the Arctic: The authors conclude that "anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases have led to unprecedented regional warmth." [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Global warming: This is much colder than the conditions that actually exist at the Earth's surface (the global mean surface temperature is about 14 °C). [SUPPORTS]
- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change: Another example of scientific research which suggests that previous estimates by the IPCC, far from overstating dangers and risks, have actually understated them is a study on projected rises in sea levels. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: The statement references the IPCC's Fourth Assessment of 2007, and asserts that "climate change is happening even faster than previously estimated; global CO 2 emissions since 2000 have been higher than even the highest predictions, Arctic sea ice has been melting at rates much faster than predicted, and the rise in the sea level has become more rapid". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Scientific consensus on climate change: The report's Summary for Policymakers stated that warming of the climate system is 'unequivocal' with changes unprecedented over decades to millennia, including warming of the atmosphere and oceans, loss of snow and ice, and sea level rise. [SUPPORTS]
Claim: But the new research shows that the amount of oxygen in those shells doesn’t actually remain constant over time.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Europa (moon): Observations with the Goddard High Resolution Spectrograph of the Hubble Space Telescope, first described in 1995, revealed that Europa has a thin atmosphere composed mostly of molecular oxygen (O2), and some water vapor. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Oxygen: Paleoclimatologists measure the ratio of oxygen-18 and oxygen-16 in the shells and skeletons of marine organisms to determine the climate millions of years ago (see oxygen isotope ratio cycle). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Oxygen: Paleoclimatologists also directly measure this ratio in the water molecules of ice core samples as old as hundreds of thousands of years. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Radiocarbon dating: The effect also applies to marine organisms such as shells, and marine mammals such as whales and seals, which have radiocarbon ages that appear to be hundreds of years old. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Radiocarbon dating: The effect varies greatly and there is no general offset that can be applied; additional research is usually needed to determine the size of the offset, for example by comparing the radiocarbon age of deposited freshwater shells with associated organic material. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The new research showed that [oxygen isotopes in foraminifera] can change
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Pleistocene: Such a pattern seems to fit the information on climate change found in oxygen isotope cores. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Proxy (climate): As of 2018[update], there is a decade of research demonstrating that in mineral soils the degree of methylation of bacteria (brGDGTs), helps to calculate mean annual air temperatures. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Radiocarbon dating: In 1939, Martin Kamen and Samuel Ruben of the Radiation Laboratory at Berkeley began experiments to determine if any of the elements common in organic matter had isotopes with half-lives long enough to be of value in biomedical research. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Speleothem: Stable isotopes of oxygen (δ18O) and carbon (δ13C) are recorded well in speleothems, giving high-resolution data that can show annual variation in temperature (oxygen isotopes primarily reflect rainfall temperature) and precipitation (carbon isotopes primarily reflect C3/C4 plant composition and plant productivity, but the interpretation is often complicated). [SUPPORTS]
- Speleothem: "Cryogenic cave calcite from several Central European caves: age, carbon and oxygen isotopes and a genetic model". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The changes in the amount of oxygen in the shells isn’t a reflection of changing temperatures – just a consequence of the fact that the amount of oxygen seen changes over time anyway.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Common octopus: Variations in temperature can also induce a change in hemolymph protein levels along oxygen consumption. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Common octopus: The slight rise in P50 that occurs with temperature change allows oxygen pressure to remain high in the capillaries, allowing for elevated diffusion of oxygen into the mitochondria during periods of high oxygen consumption. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Common octopus: In moving vertically throughout the water, the octopus is subjected to various pressures and temperatures, which affect the concentration of oxygen available in the water. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Human impact on marine life: This means the density of ocean water changes as its temperature and salinity changes. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Paleoclimatology: The exact cause of the variation of the amount of oxygen in the atmosphere is not known. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: “To revisit the ocean’s paleotemperatures now, we need to carefully quantify this re-equilibration, which has been overlooked for too long.
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Paleothermometer: The calibration was initially done on the basis of spatial variations in temperature and it was assumed that this corresponded to temporal variations (Jouzel and Merlivat, 1984). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Paleothermometer: Mg has a long residence time in the ocean, and so it is possible to largely ignore the effect of changes in seawater Mg/Ca on the signal. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Paleothermometer: Temperature has been estimated (to varying degrees of fidelity) using leaf physiognomy for Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic leaf floras, principally using two main approaches: A univariate approach that is based on the observation that the proportion of woody dicot species with smooth (i.e. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Paleothermometer: The major influence on δ18O is the difference between ocean temperatures where the moisture evaporated and the place where the final precipitation occurred; since ocean temperatures are relatively stable the δ18O value mostly reflects the temperature where precipitation occurs. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- We Belong Together: Styles P raps "Past is the past, just let it be bygones / Matter of fact I know a fly song that we could vibe on", which Sanneh writes "Cheerfully out of place, he sounds like a man who has wandered into the wrong summertime party, but so what? [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: For that, we have to work on other types of marine organisms so that we clearly understand what took place in the sediment over geological time”
Verdict: NOT_ENOUGH_INFO
Evidence:
- Geobiology: While there are many aspects of studying past and present interactions between life and Earth that are unclear, several important ideas and concepts provide a basis of knowledge in geobiology that serve as a platform for posing researchable questions, including the evolution of life and planet and the co-evolution of the two, genetics - from both a historical and functional standpoint, the metabolic diversity of all life, the sedimentological preservation of past life, and the origin of life. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Geology: These fossils help scientists to date the core and to understand the depositional environment in which the rock units formed. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Geology: Observation of modern marine and non-marine sediments in a wide variety of environments supports this generalization (although cross-bedding is inclined, the overall orientation of cross-bedded units is horizontal). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Paleontology: It includes the study of fossils to determine organisms' evolution and interactions with each other and their environments (their paleoecology). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Paleontology: Biostratigraphy, the use of fossils to work out the chronological order in which rocks were formed, is useful to both paleontologists and geologists. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: Global human emissions are only 3 per cent of total annual emissions.
Verdict: REFUTES
Evidence:
- Agriculture: It is one of the largest sources of greenhouse gases, responsible for 18% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions as measured in CO2 equivalents. [REFUTES]
- Agriculture: Agriculture, forestry and land-use change contributed around 20 to 25% to global annual emissions in 2010. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Climate change and agriculture: Agriculture, forestry and land-use change contributed around 20 to 25% of global annual emissions in 2010. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Kyoto Protocol: In 2008, countries with a Kyoto cap made up less than one-third of annual global carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion. [REFUTES]
- Kyoto Protocol: The Kyoto second commitment period applies to about 11% of annual global emissions of greenhouse gases. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: The past shows that climate change is normal, that warmer times and more atmospheric carbon dioxide have driven biodiversity and that cold times kill.”
Verdict: DISPUTED
Evidence:
- Anoxic event: The trigger for these mass extinctions appears to be a warming of the ocean caused by a rise of carbon dioxide levels to about 1000 parts per million. [REFUTES]
- Biodiversity: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide certainly affects plant morphology and is acidifying oceans, and temperature affects species ranges, phenology, and weather, but, mercifully, the major impacts that have been predicted are still potential futures. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere: The greenhouse effect is a process by which thermal radiation from a planetary atmosphere warms the planet's surface beyond the temperature it would have in the absence of its atmosphere. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Effects of global warming on human health: Historically, cold temperatures at night and in the winter months would kill off insects, bacteria and fungi. [SUPPORTS]
- Paleoclimatology: Studies of past changes in the environment and biodiversity often reflect on the current situation, specifically the impact of climate on mass extinctions and biotic recovery and current global warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
Claim: “The worldwide temperature record has been changed.
Verdict: SUPPORTS
Evidence:
- Attribution of recent climate change: This has led to increases in mean global temperature, or global warming. [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Attribution of recent climate change: According to the historical temperature record of the last century, the Earth's near-surface air temperature has risen around 0.74 ± 0.18 °Celsius (1.3 ± 0.32 °Fahrenheit). [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Attribution of recent climate change: Over the past five decades there has been a global warming of approximately 0.65 °C (1.17 °F) at the Earth's surface (see historical temperature record). [SUPPORTS]
- Global warming: "Estimating Changes in Global Temperature since the Preindustrial Period". [NOT_ENOUGH_INFO]
- Instrumental temperature record: An examination of the average global temperature changes by decades reveals continuing climate change, and AR5 reports "Each of the last three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850 (see Figure SPM.1). [SUPPORTS]