Geographic-information-system-based topographic reconstruction and geomechanical modelling of the Köfels rockslide

Abstract. The Köfels rockslide in the Ötztal Valley (Tyrol, Austria) represents the largest known extremely rapid landslide in metamorphic rock masses in the Alps. Although many hypotheses for the trigger were discussed in the past, until now no scientifically proven trigger factor has been identified. This study provides new data about the (i) pre-failure and failure topography, (ii) failure volume and porosity of the sliding mass, and (iii) numerical models on initial deformation and failure mechanism, as well as shear strength properties of the basal shear zone obtained by back-calculations. Geographic information system (GIS) methods were used to reconstruct the slope topographies before, during and after the event. Comparing the resulting digital terrain models leads to volume estimates of the failure and deposition masses of 3100 and 4000 million m3, respectively, and a sliding mass porosity of 26 %. For the 2D numerical investigation the distinct element method was applied to study the geomechanical characteristics of the initial failure process (i.e. model runs without a basal shear zone) and to determine the shear strength properties of the reconstructed basal shear zone. Based on numerous model runs by varying the block and joint input parameters, the failure process of the rock slope could be plausibly reconstructed; however, the exact geometry of the rockslide, especially in view of thickness, could not be fully reproduced. Our results suggest that both failure of rock blocks and shearing along dipping joints moderately to the east were responsible for the formation or the rockslide. The progressive failure process may have taken place by fracturing and loosening of the rock mass, advancing from shallow to deep-seated zones, especially by the development of internal shear zones, as well as localized domains of increased block failure. The simulations further highlighted the importance of considering the dominant structural features of the rock mass. Considering back-calculations of the strength properties, i.e. the friction angle of the basal shear zone, the results indicated that under no groundwater flow conditions, an exceptionally low friction angle of 21 to 24∘ or below is required to promote failure, depending on how much internal shearing of the sliding mass is allowed. Model runs considering groundwater flow resulted in approximately 6∘ higher back-calculated critical friction angles ranging from 27 to 30∘. Such low friction angles of the basal failure zone are unexpected from a rock mechanical perspective for this strong rock, and groundwater flow, even if high water pressures are assumed, may not be able to trigger this rockslide. In addition, the rock mass properties needed to induce failure in the model runs if no basal shear zone was implemented are significantly lower than those which would be obtained by classical rock mechanical considerations. Additional conditioning and triggering factors such as the impact of earthquakes acting as precursors for progressive rock mass weakening may have been involved in causing this gigantic rockslide.