Why science alone won't solve the climate crisis : managing climate risks in the Pacific

IntroductionAs an instrument for reducing emissions and slowing global warming, science has failed. As a source of definitive prescriptions about how communities should deal with a changing climate, science alone is inadequate. Some have called for public spending on research and development of energy technologies on the scale of the Manhattan Project. But a purely technocratic approach is likely only to exacerbate the climate crisis because it ignores the dynamic psychological, cultural, social, economic, and political systems that affect climate impacts.To solve the problem, policymakers need to set a risk-management agenda that integrates sound science with an understanding of how that science is interpreted and translated into action in society. The need for this agenda is especially clear in the Pacific region, where island communities, infrastructures, and environments are already experiencing the effects of climate change. Lessons learned in the Pacific and knowledge of factors affecting human risk responses and decision processes can shed light on the role of diverse belief systems and the social dynamics of risk in shaping local vulnerability and resilience to climate impacts. An examination of alternative risk-management tools, with a focus on adaptation (rather than mitigation), reveals the potential for these tools to help bridge the gap between climate science and society.The Pacific Islands: Escalating VulnerabilityThe roughly 30,000 islands in the Pacific are spread across five time zones (and the International Date Line) and lie on both sides of the equator. Approximately 9.7 million people live in the 22 island countries and territories in Melanesia, Polynesia, and Micronesia served by the Secretariat of the Pacific Community; another 4.2 million people live in New Zealand and 1.3 million live in Hawai'i. The islands lie in the heart of the oceanic and atmospheric interactions that create the Earth's climate system.In recent decades, the number of Pacific Islanders affected by weather-related disasters such as cyclones, floods, and droughts has increased dramatically. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects worsening conditions.1 Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate flooding, storm surge, erosion, and other coastal hazards, threatening vital infrastructure such as airports and road networks. Reduced rainfall compounds the threat to fresh water, food security, and human health. Unfortunately, data released since the latest IPCC report suggest even stronger grounds for concern about damage to or irreversible loss of species as well as unique systems such as coral reefs, tropical glaciers, biodiversity hot spots, indigenous communities, and small-island states.Small-island developing states are considered among the most vulnerable to climate change because of their limited size, proneness to natural hazards, physical isolation, low adaptive capacity, and high adaptation costs relative to gross domestic product. When disaster strikes, a domino effect can occur, causing one vulnerable sector to influence another. The effects of less dramatic climatic events may accumulate over time, also setting in motion a chain of problems. Fresh water is key-when supply is affected by climatic events, food security and public health are threatened.Although unique in many ways, the Pacific region provides a snapshot of escalating vulnerabilities faced around the world as a result of climate variability and change. Smaller increases in global mean temperature are now projected to lead to significant negative consequences for most regions. Examining Pacific Islanders' responses to existing climate challenges can provide clues about how a host of psychological, social, and cultural factors may influence adaptation in other regions.Diverse Belief SystemsResearch has shown that people hold diverse beliefs about climate change and its causes, consequences, and potential solutions. …