A Simulation Study Based on the Regional Space-time Load Balancing of Jiuzhaigou

Although the tourism industry can promote economic development in China,the growth of the tourism industry may have negative impact on ecological environment and culture.Controversial issues about how to achieve the coordinated development of tourism's economic,social and ecological benefits have caused public attention.Based on a comprehensive research of Jiuzhaigou and previous works,this study analyzes spatial and temporal variation characteristics of scenic spot's passenger flow during the tourist season,and discovers that tourists' imbalanced distribution in time and space can cause the imbalance of various scenic spots' load factors and block the coordinated development of tourism and ecology.Therefore,to achieve the balance of scenic spots' load factor,it is necessary to design a reasonable scheme for tourists' diversion.Based on the optimal scheduling hypothesis and with the simulation technology,this study simulates scenic spot load factor's fluctuation situation of different tourists' diversion schemes under "five districts diversion. " By comparing every scheme's situation of load factor's variance,this paper proposes initial scheduling and steady-state scheduling concepts.This paper adopts strategy that combines the static shunt with the dynamic shunt based on the balance of regional space-time load factor.Through the simulation model,the diversion result of this strategy is validated,the advantages and disadvantages of the strategy are analyzed,and next research ideas are also put forward. This paper is based on the "Five Districts Diversion" of Jiuzhaigou,explores its impact on the attractions' load from different diversion programs through simulation techniques,and proposes future research idea.The analysis is based on the optimal scheduling assumption for optimal shunting results.Besides,we propose a network layer theory to avoid modeling the diversity of the paths of the tourists.In addition,the capacity of attractions is not only determined by ecological environment and infrastructure of attractions,but also by tourists' duration in the attractions.Therefore,the concept of space-time load is presented.In the second part,the issues are described in a mathematical form,and relevant parameters are also defined.In addition,the goal of diversion is to minimize the total of variance of attractions,and the objective function is proposed. The third part is theemphasis of the paper and contains five modules: The first module introduces optimal scheduling theory and network layer theory.The second module splits tourists' path based on the network theory and form a network layer diagram.The third module describes four diversion programs: diversion based on average rate,diversion based on real-time load,diversion based on space-time load and diversion based on region load;The fourth module explains the simulation design process mainly by expounding the law of tourist arrivals and the statistical mechanism nodes' real-time load.A comparative analysis of the four schemes' simulation results are made during the fifth module. The fourth part isbased on a comparative analysis of four schemes' simulation results in the third part,and explores improvement directions.There are two stages of improvements.The first stage divides Jiuzhaigou tourist diversion into intoinitial-state diversion and steady-state diversion.The initial-state uses average diversion while the above four programs are used respectively during the steady-state diversion.We further explore the improvement by analyzing the effect of those three kinds of diversion programs.The second phase of improvements is based on the first stage,and mainly foucses on the steady-state.We further propose the strategy that the initial-state uses average diversion while steady-state diversion is based on the regional space-time load.Finally,we compare the average diversion program with the improvement program.The last part is concluded with research limitations and directions.