Taiwan's Rising Rationalism: Generations, Politics, and "Taiwanese Nationalism"

List of AcronymsDPP Democratic Progressive PartyFAPA Formosan Association for Public AffairsKMT Kuomintang [Chinese Nationalist Party]NP New PartyPFP People First PartyPRC People's Republic of ChinaROC Republic of ChinaTNSS Taiwan National Security SurveyTSU Taiwan Solidarity UnionU.S. United StatesExecutive SummaryA peaceful, amicable relationship between Taiwan and the People's Republic of China (PRC) is essential to prosperity and security in and beyond the Taiwan Strait. Anticipating the future direction of cross-strait relations is thus very important. But it is also very difficult, not least because key trends in the Strait seem to be headed in opposite directions. On the one hand, the scope and intensity of cross-strait interactions are expanding rapidly, creating shared interests on the two sides and eroding resistance to closer cross-strait ties. On the other hand, popular support for political unification within Taiwan is declining, and the percentage of Taiwan residents who think of themselves as Taiwanese, not Chinese, is rising.Islanders' growing tendency to identify Taiwan as their homeland has attracted considerable attention from the U.S. media and policy communities. There is a widespread perception that a rising proportion of islanders identifying as Taiwanese will result in increased enthusiasm for an independent Taiwan and flagging interest in political rapprochement or accommodation with the PRC; this complex of attitudes is often referred to in the media as "Taiwanese nationalism. " The steady increase of "Taiwanese nationalism"-which is assumed to be particularly common among young Taiwanese-is cited as a serious obstacle to stabilizing crossstrait relations in the future.This study challenges these assumptions. Using data from surveys, interviews, focus groups, and published studies, it deconstructs the concept of "Taiwanese nationalism" to show that holding a Taiwanese identity does not equate to supporting independence or opposing better cross-strait relations. In addition, it demonstrates that attitudes toward Taiwanese identity and cross-strait relations vary in important ways from one generation to the next. "Taiwanese nationalism" is a strong force mainly among Taiwanese born between the early 1930s and the early 1950s, while younger Taiwanese generally hold positive or pragmatic views about cross-strait economic and political interactions.Social scientists identify political generations as age cohorts whose collective experiences have produced distinctive attitudinal patterns. Using this analytical framework, this study identifies four political generations in Taiwan today. The first generation (born by 1931) spent its formative years under Japanese colonial rule. The second generation (born between 1931 and 1953) came of age during the height of the KMT's authoritarianism, when political activism and Taiwanese identity were harshly suppressed. The formative period for the third generation (born 1954 to 1968) occurred during Taiwan's transition to democracy. The fourth generation (born after 1968) reached adulthood after Taiwan's democratization was essentially complete.In addition to disaggregating the components of "Taiwanese nationalism," the study explores their respective contributions to the attitudinal patterns that distinguish the four generations. The complex of values popularly known as "Taiwanese nationalism" (Taiwanese identity, support for independence, antipathy toward the PRC) is most common among the second generation of Taiwanese-the generation that includes most of Taiwan's current political leadership. Among Taiwanese in the third and the fourth generations, Taiwanese identity often coexists with neutral or positive views of China. For the fourth generation in particular, there is no contradiction between loving Taiwan and seeking one's fortune in the mainland.Overall, this generational analysis of attitudes toward identity and cross-strait relations supports an optimistic assessment of the future of these relations. …