Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Decision, Probability, and Utility : Selected Readings

1. Introduction: Bayesian decision theory - foundations and problems Peter Gardenfors, and Nils-Eric Sahlin Part I. Foundations of Bayesian Decision Theory: 2. Truth and probability Frank P. Ramsey 3. Individual decision making under uncertainty R. Duncan Luce, and Howard Raiffa 4. The sure-thing principle Leonard J. Savage 5. Probable knowledge Richard C. Jeffrey Part II. Conceptualization of Probability and Utility: Introduction: 6. Bets and beliefs Henry E. Kyburg 7. Slightly more realistic personal probability Ian Hacking 8. Risk aversion as a problem of conjoint measurement Bengt Hansson Part III. Questionable Rule of Rationality: Introduction: 9. Allais' paradox Leonard J. Savage 10. Sure-thing doubts Edward F. McClennen 11. Prospect theory: an analysis of decision under risk Daniel Kahneman, and Amos Tversky 12. Generalized expected utility analysis and the nature of observed violations of the independence axiom Mark Machina Part IV. Unreliable Probabilities: Introduction: 13. Risk, ambiguity, and the Savage axioms Daniel Ellsberg 14. Self-knowledge, uncertainty, and choice Frederic Schick 15. On indeterminate probabilities Isaac Levi 16. Unreliable probabilities, risk taking, and decision making Peter Gardenfors, and Nils-Eric Sahlin Part V. Causal Decision Theory: Introduction: 17. Counterfactuals and two kinds of expected utility Allan Gibbard, and William L. Harper 18. Causal decision theory David Lewis 19. Ratifiability and stability Wlodzimierz Rabinowicz.
David George Kendall and Applied Probability

David George Kendall, described as ‘the father of British probability’ in obituaries in The Independent, 1 November 2007, and in The Times, 21 November 2007, died on 23 October 2007 after a decade of declining health. A more rounded appreciation of his contributions to learning will in due course appear in the Biographical Memoirs of Fellows of the Royal Society, for he was elected a Fellow of the Royal Society in 1964 and served on its Council in 1967–69 and 1983–84. These notes record his particular contributions to the activities of the Applied Probability Trust and attempt to survey some aspects of his work in the field of applied probability more generally. Indeed, it was in the applied probability field, broadly interpreted, that David Kendall played a pre-eminent role as an exemplar, mentor, and organiser for over 50 years of his active public life that built on his being called into wartime service in March 1940. Much of this can be gleaned from the quasi autobiographicalA conversation with David Kendall [2], especially of his formative years in Ripon where he was born (15 January 1918) and schooled, his undergraduate days in Oxford, and most importantly his experiences in operations research during and after World War II when inter alia he was given a week to learn statistics from Frank Anscombe, who used his notes from Maurice Bartlett’s Cambridge lectures. Much of his effort during the war was concerned with aspects of rocketry, and innumerable reports were written, presumably (from his conversation with Bingham) on sundry numerical applications, while his spare time was given over to pondering more mathematical matters. Yet for all this and his avid reading in diverse mathematical topics, David will eventually be remembered as an applied mathematician in the fullest sense. From his initial drive to become an astronomer and therefore first to become a mathematician, it was ultimately the will to exploit whatever could be learnt from mathematical modelling of a particular phenomenon that was the characteristic feature of his work, whether of a population (birth–death or branching processes or epidemics), or organization (queueing theory), or of data (archaeology or seriation), or animal behaviour (bird navigation), to mention just some subjects to which he contributed. As The Times obituarist observed,
Information-sharing tendency on Twitter and time evolution of tweeting

While topics on Twitter may be categorized according to their predictability and sustainability, some topics have characteristics depending on the time scale. Here we propose a good measure for the transition of sustainability, which we call the information-sharing tendency, and find that the unpredictability on Twitter is provoked by the exposure of Twitter users to external environments, e.g., mass media and other social network services. In addition, it is demonstrated that the numbers of articles and comments on on-line newspapers serve as plausible measures of exposure. From such measures of exposure, the time evolution of tweeting can be described, when the information-sharing tendency is known.
Reaction time and musical expectancy: Priming of chords with no partials in common

Subjects were presented with two musical chords in succession, called the prime and target, respectively. The prime and target were either related (e.g., C and D major, respectively, sharing a parent key) or unrelated (e.g., C and F♯ major, respectively, sharing no parent key). Subjects judged, as quickly as possible, whether the target was in tune or out of tune. Response times for in‐tune targets were faster when prime and target were related than when they were unrelated, suggesting that the prime generated expectancies for related targets. Priming occurred even when prime and target shared no partials. These results suggest that chordal expectancies generated by a musical context are not due solely to priming at the level of individual frequencies, but also involve priming at a more abstract level of chord function, implicating a cognitive representation of chord relationships. A network model of chord relationships is proposed whereby chord nodes activate related chord nodes via links to their parent key nodes.
Frequency-domain complementary operators for finite-elements simulation

A new mesh-truncation technique is introduced for the frequency-domain (time-harmonic) solution of open-region radiation problems. The technique is based on the complementary operators method (COM), where two independent solutions are averaged to eliminate first-order boundary reflections. The dual complementariness in the frequency domain is achieved by introducing a discrete-domain operator that achieves the objective of /spl part//sub t/ in the original time-domain development of COM.
X-Ray and Optical Spectra of the Unusual Cataclysmic Variables LS Pegasi and T Leonis

We obtained ASCA observations of the cataclysmic variables LS Peg and T Leo in order to refine the X-ray characteristics of these two systems with unusual stream behaviors and to search for orbital features that might signify the presence of material above the orbital plane. Simultaneous (LS Peg) and contemporaneous (T Leo) optical observations showed the systems undergoing their typical stream behaviors (absorption, high-velocity component, and quasi-periodic oscillations in LS Peg; stream flow to the far side of the disk in T Leo). The X-ray light curve of LS Peg shows a low but constant count rate throughout its orbit. To fit the spectrum with a reasonable temperature requires a 7 keV partial-absorber model with high column (6 × 1022 cm-2). This may be evidence for material thrown high above the disk by the disk-stream interaction or a magnetic accretion funnel sometimes suggested to explain other SW Sex stars. The spectrum of T Leo is consistent with a simple 4–6 keV thermal model with lower column (3–5 × 1020 cm-2) and a small contribution from a cooler 1 keV component. Its light curve shows enhanced flux between phases 0.8 and 1.0, which is not due to a change in temperature or column. The difference in behavior of this light curve from that of U Gem may be due to the lower accretion in this shorter period system.
Crossed Linear Gaussian Bayesian Networks, parsimonious models

Linear Gaussian Bayesian networks can dramatically reduce the parametric dimension of the covariance matrices in the framework of multivariate multiple regression models. This idea is developed using structured, crossed directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) when node sets can be interpreted as the cartesian product of two sets. Some interesting properties of these DAGs are shown as well as the probability distributions of the associated Bayesian networks. A numerical experiment on simulated data was performed to check that the idea could be applied in practice. This modelling is applied to the prediction of body composition from easily measurable covariates and compared with the results of a saturated regression prediction.
Analysis of experimental NRL radar altimeter data

An X-band radar designed and built by the Naval Research Laboratory and capable of continuously variable transmitted pulse durations down to 1 nsec is being flown on a NASA Wallops Flight Center C-54 aircraft to investigate the interaction of radar altimeter signals with the sea surface. There is good agreement between the observed radar altimeter leading edge rise time for a 1-nsec transmitted pulse and the rise time predicted from the radar parameters and the sea state determined by a laser profilometer. Using a threshold tracker on 29-pulse averages for a transmitted pulse of 24 nsec, we found that the range noise varied linearly with the power level of the threshold over a considerable range. The altimeter range quantization was 9.35 cm and a minimum range noise of 3.9 cm was obtained. A comparison of pulse-to-pulse correlation observed in the radar data with that predicted by a Monte Carlo simulation is used to obtain a measure of sea surface scatterer motion.
On-line control procedures under the random-walk model with measurement error and attribute observations†

Assuming the quality characteristic process follows the random-walk model, the economic online control procedures are investigated by using the boundary correction technique when (1) the noise or measurement error follows either the random-walk model or the pure random model, and (2) the observations are taken by attributes only. Simple approximations for the long-run cost rate and optimal-control parameters are obtained. Nous supposons qu'un processus representant la variation d'une caracteristique de qualite est de la forme d'une marche aleatoire. Nous etudions les procedures economiques de contrǒle en cours de production, en utilisant la technique de correction a la frontiere, dans les contextes suivants: (i) lorsque le bruit ou l'erreur de mesure est de la forme d'une marche aleatoire ou d'un modele purement aleatoire, et (ii) lorsque les observations sont prelevees par attributs uniquement. Nous obtenons des approximations simples pour la variation du coǔt a long terme et les parametres de contrǒle optimaux.
Multi-vehicle decentralized fusion and tracking

In this paper, we introduce a decentralized fusion and tracking based on a distributed multi-source multitarget filtering and robust communication with the following features: (i) data reduction; (ii) a disruption tolerant dissemination procedure that takes advantage of storage and mobility; and (iii) efficient data set reconciliation algorithms. We developed and implemented complex high-fidelity marine application demonstration of this approach that encompasses all relevant environmental parameters. In the simulated example, multi-source information is fused by exploiting sensors from disparate Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUV) and Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) multi-sensor platforms. Communications among the platforms are continuously establishing and breaking depending on the time-changing geometry. We compare and evaluate the developed algorithms by assessing their performance against different scenarios.
Writing about Math for the perplexed and traumatized

Introduction In the summer of 2009 I received an unexpected email from David Shipley, the editor of the op-ed page for the New York Times. He invited me to look him up next time I was in the city and said there was something he’d like to discuss. Over lunch at the Oyster Bar restaurant in Grand Central Station, he asked whether I’d ever have time to write a series about the elements of math aimed at people like him. He said he’d majored in English in college and hadn’t studied math since high school. At some point he’d lost his way and given up. Although he could usually do what his math teachers had asked of him, he’d never really seen the point of it. Later in life he’d been puzzled to hear math described as beautiful. Could I convey some of that beauty to his readers, many of whom, he suspected, were as lost he was? I was thrilled by his proposition. I love math, but even more than that, I love trying to explain it. Here I’d like to touch on a few of the writing challenges that this opportunity entailed, along with the goals I set for myself, and then describe how, by borrowing from three great science writers, I tried to meet those challenges. I’m not sure if any of my suggestions will help other mathematicians who’d like to share their own love of math with the public, but that’s my hope.
A comparison between simulations and various approximations for Hookean dumbbells with hydrodynamic interaction

The Brownian dynamics simulation technique is used to calculate exact rheological properties of the Hookean‐dumbbell model with hydrodynamic interaction. The simulation results for steady shear flow are compared to the corresponding predictions of the preaveraging approximation, the consistent‐averaging approximation, and the Gaussian approximation developed in the preceding article. Our calculations of the viscometric functions of the Hookean‐dumbbell model are performed for various hydrodynamic‐interaction tensors.
AKARI warm mission

AKARI, the Japanese satellite mission dedicated for infrared astronomy launched in 2006 February, exhausted its 180 litter liquid helium (LHe) in 2007 August. After the LHe exhaustion, the telescope and focal plane of AKARI have still been kept less than 50K by the onboard cryocooler and near-infrared (NIR) observations with the Infrared Camera (IRC) are continuing. The data reduction software optimized for the warm mission enables us to carry out efficient and sensitive observations in the NIR despite the increase of hot pixels. In particular, the NIR spectroscopic capability of the IRC provides a unique opportunity to obtain spectra in 2.5-5μm with a high sensitivity, which will not be able to be carried out with any other facilities until JWST. An overview of the AKARI warm mission is given together with the performance and some observational results taken during the warm mission.
Simulation of three‐dimensional unsteady viscous free surface flow around a ship model

We present here a numerical method for solving the free surface flow around a ship at forward speed in calm water. The fluid is assumed to be Newtonian and the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations are solved by a finite difference method. Modelization of turbulence is achieved by the algebraic model proposed by Baldwin and Lomax. Fully non-linear free surface conditions are satisfied in the model and a method to avoid the incompatibility between free surface conditions and no-slip conditions at the waterline is proposed. Numerical results obtained for a Wigley hull are compared with experimental results
Scale Invariance and Current Commutators Near the Light Cone

Consequences of the assumption that current commutators have power-type singularities near the light cone are derived. An extension of Wilson's short-distance expansion of commutators is suggested for almost lightlike distances. Consequences for power-type singularities are derived for processes involving currents. Especially, generalized scaling laws are obtained for inelastic electron-nucleon scattering. The connection with Regge behavior is discussed. An application to electron-positron annihilation into hadrons is also made.
Pupil-segmentation-based adaptive optics for microscopy

Inhomogeneous optical properties of biological samples make it difficult to obtain diffraction-limited resolution in depth. Correcting the sample-induced optical aberrations needs adaptive optics (AO). However, the direct wavefront-sensing approach commonly used in astronomy is not suitable for most biological samples due to their strong scattering of light. We developed an image-based AO approach that is insensitive to sample scattering. By comparing images of the sample taken with different segments of the pupil illuminated, local tilt in the wavefront is measured from image shift. The aberrated wavefront is then obtained either by measuring the local phase directly using interference or with phase reconstruction algorithms similar to those used in astronomical AO. We implemented this pupil-segmentation-based approach in a two-photon fluorescence microscope and demonstrated that diffraction-limited resolution can be recovered from nonbiological and biological samples.
Grid adaptation using a distribution of sources applied to inviscid compressible flow simulations

Unstructured tetrahedral grids are generated using a new, very efficient procedure based upon the Delaunay triangulation. The generation procedure is extremely fast, having the capability to generate large grids in minutes on workstations. To maximize this computational performance, a new form of adaptivity has been developed involving the use of sources placed within regions of the domain which require further grid point resolution. A source has a position and a specified grid point density. An error indicator is used to find the elements within the grid which require refinement. Within such elements sources are placed with specified grid point densities which are proportional to the amount of refinement required. The grid generation procedure is then invoked and a grid generated whose grid point density is controlled by the sources. The resulting grid is thus refined in the regions identified by the error indicator as requiring greater resolution. The paper discusses the generation process and emphasizes the new solution adaptation capability. Several examples of the approach are given, including aerospace compressible flow simulations over realistic configurations.
The origin of the open-circuit voltage in polyfluorene-based photovoltaic devices

The influence of device structure on the open-circuit voltage of polyfluorene-based photovoltaic devices has been investigated. Bilayers of hole- and electron-accepting polyfluorenes have been fabricated using an aqueous “float-off” lamination technique and subsequently incorporated into organic photovoltaic devices with a range of cathodes and anodes. A scaling of the open-circuit voltage with electrode work function difference has been observed with an additional intensity- dependent contribution from the active layer within the device. This additional contribution is attributed to photoinduced generation of carriers, whereby accumulation of charge at the polymer–polymer heterojunction results in a dipole across the interface and gives rise to a diffusion current that must be counterbalanced by a drift current at open circuit.
A µ‐dependent approach to H∞ control of uncertain switched linear systems with average dwell time

This paper concerns H∞ control problem for a class of discrete‐time uncertain switched linear systems with average dwell time. The stability result for general discrete‐time switched systems is first explored, and a µ‐dependent approach is then introduced for the considered systems to the H∞ controller solution. A mode‐dependent state‐feedback controller is designed such that the resulting closed‐loop system is robust exponentially stable and has a prescribed exponential H∞ performance index. The µ‐dependent existence conditions of desired controller and admissible switching signals are derived and formulated in terms of linear matrix inequalities (LMIs). A numerical example is given to demonstrate the effectiveness of the developed theoretical results. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
THE EVOLUTION OF GALAXIES

spiral structure is rather more open. In Sc nebulae the nucleus is very small, becoming quite inconspicuous in type Sc+. The spiral arms are very loosely wound and have a patchy structure due to the presence of supergiant stars and emission nebulae. It will be noted that the classification scheme presented above does not distinguish between normal spirals and barred spirals. According to Holmberg,1 the irregular galaxies may be subdivided into two types. Irregular galaxies of type I are blue and contain supergiant stars, while those of type II are red, and might more appropriately be called pathological galaxies. An example of the latter type is NGC 3034 = M 82.
Transient Solution for Sound Radiated into a Viscous Fluid

Sinusoidal vibration of a plane at the edge x = 0 of a viscous fluid causes sound to be radiated into the fluid. The motion begins at time t = 0. Of primary interest is the transient signal. The wave equation, which in this case is of third order because of the presence of viscosity, is solved by changing the form of the viscosity term slightly. The approximation made is justified as long as αλ≪1, where αλ is the dimensionless attenuation coefficient. The altered equation is reducible to the diffusion equation, whose solutions are well known. One of these solutions is adapted for the present problem. It turns out that the transient part of this solution can be represented in terms of the error function of complex argument, a tabulated function. The transient proves to be significant in the vicinity of the main wave front x=c0l. When the wave is first generated, the transient is very weak, but it grows in importance as the wave travels away. Near the point x = 1/α the transient has its maximum amplitude. T.
Comment on raindrop size distribution model

The parameter set for the exponential raindrop size distribution model presented by Yeo, Kooi and Leong (see ibid. vol.41, P.709, 1993) was derived using a data set measured in Singapore. A limitation to the model is that it is accurate only for small rain rate or when the rain medium consists predominantly of small droplets with diameter D is >
Semiparametric Estimation of Information Technology Diffusion Models: A Study Based on Portuguese Firm-Level Data

SYNOPTIC ABSTRACT This paper applies both parametric and semiparametric methods to the estimation of an Information Technologies (IT) Diffusion Model for Portuguese firms. The semiparametric estimator used is the one proposed by Klein, and Spady (1993). Specification tests based on the findings of Horowitz and Härdle (1994), Fan, and Liu (1997) and Aït-Sahalia, Bickel, and Stoker (2001) are employed to verify the goodness of fit of the parametric model. We find that both approaches yield similar results and specification tests reveal that the estimated parametric model fits the data reasonably well and can therefore be used for policy purposes.