Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Should Central Banks Be Forward-Looking?

We show that in a world where agents have limited cognitive abilities and, as a result, are prevented from having rational expectations the answer to this question is negative. We find that in "tranquil periods" when market sentiments (animal spirits) are neutral a forward-looking Taylor rule produces similar results as current-looking Taylor rule in terms of output and inflation volatility. However, when the economy is in a regime of booms and bust produced by extreme values of animal spirits the forward-looking central bank will make many policy errors that have to be corrected afterwards. Thus in a regime of extreme uncertainty the use of a forward Taylor rule reduces the quality of policy-making, leading to greater variability of the output and inflation. It is then better for the central bank to use currently observed output and inflation to set the interest rate. The empirical evidence suggests that central banks are often not forward looking. Our model provides the theoretical justification for this.
Profit Shifting, Import and Export Markups, and the Gains from Trade

This paper develops a multi-sector, multi-country model of international trade and profit shifting which embeds imperfect product markets and markups into Eaton and Kortum (2002)'s Ricardian trade model. Within a country, producers in different sectors face different demand elasticities, and therefore, charge different markups. Moreover, markup distributions for both imports and exports are allowed to vary across countries. We first show theoretically that the gains from trade can depend crucially on the markup distribution for imported goods versus that for exported goods. To then bring the model to the data and to quantify the markup distributions for imports and exports, we estimate both trade elasticities and a rich set of country- and industry-specific import demand elasticities for over 120,000 distinct sector-country pairs and incorporate them into our structural model. We find that cross-country heterogeneities in the markup distribution for exports and imports are an important determinant of the gains from trade and especially the welfare losses from tariffs; By taking markups into account, these losses are up to three times larger (smaller) for net exporters (importers) of high-markup products. Finally, we apply our model to the recent U.S.-China trade war and show that the U.S. experienced significantly higher welfare losses from the tariff war once markups and profit shifting are taken into account, while China slightly benefited overall.
To Cap or Not to Cap? Policy Options for Dealing With the Costs of Managing Tax Affairs Deduction in Australia

In the lead-up to the 2019 Federal Election the Australian Labor Party proposed, inter alia, to cap the cost of managing tax affairs deduction at $3,000. While there was much commentary in relation to this particular deduction from politicians and even more backlash from practitioners on the proposed capping of this deduction, there remains a dearth of academic research in this area – both in the Australian context and abroad. <br><br>This article explores and extends the literature on the use and value of the cost of managing tax affairs deduction, and the usage and benefits of tax advisory services more broadly, with a focus on the under-explored High Wealth Individuals (HWIs) segment, by providing the perspective gleaned from a survey of senior tax professionals in Australia. It finds that a cap on the cost of managing tax affairs deduction would be unlikely to yield its intended policy outcome, in part due to the interchangeability in practice between advisors’ use of personal income tax deductions and corporate income tax deductions for some client segments, including HWIs. It further finds that capping the cost of managing tax affairs deduction would likely have an undesirable effect compared<br>to what was originally intended. Overall, this research presents evidence-based and practitioner-led policy recommendations for reform of the cost of managing tax affairs deduction.
Investigation of Antibacterial Activity Against Staphylococcus Aureus Of Ruthenium(II) Complexes Containing Furan-Substituted Ligands

The growing burden of antibiotic resistance worldwide&nbsp;calls for&nbsp;developing new classes of antimicrobial&nbsp;strategy. Recently years, the use of adjuvants&nbsp;that rescue antibiotics identified as&nbsp;a promising combination strategy for overcoming bacterial resistance. In this study, we designed and synthesized&nbsp;of three&nbsp;ruthenium complexes&nbsp;functionalized with furan-substituted ligands: [Ru(phen)<sub>2</sub>(CAPIP)](ClO<sub>4</sub>)<sub>2</sub> &nbsp;(<b>Ru(II)-1</b>), [Ru(dmp)<sub>2</sub>(CAPIP)](ClO<sub>4</sub>)<sub>2</sub> &nbsp;(<b>Ru(II)-2</b>) and [Ru(dmb)<sub>2</sub>(CAPIP)](ClO<sub>4</sub>)<sub>2</sub> &nbsp;(<b>Ru(II)-3</b>) (dmb=4,4′-dimethyl-2,2′-bipyridine,&nbsp;phen=1,10-phenanthroline,&nbsp;dmp=2,9-dimethyl-1,10-phenanthroline, CAPIP=(E)-2- (2-(furan-2-yl)vinyl)-1H-imidazo[4,5-f][1,10]phenanthroline). &nbsp;Their antimicrobial activities against <i>S. aureus</i>&nbsp;were assessed. All complexes show meaningful activity against <i>Staphylococcus aureus</i> with ranging MIC from 0.018-0.050 mg/mL. &nbsp;Importantly, the <b>Ru(II)-2</b> complexes which posses minimum MIC values was further tested against biofilms and toxin secretion. The results clearly indicated <b>Ru(II)-2</b> could effectively inhibit biofilms formation of <i>S. aureus</i> and inhibit the hemolysin toxin secretion as well. In addition, aimed to test whether ruthenium complexes have potent value as antimicrobial adjuvants, the synergism between <b>Ru(II)-2</b> and common antibiotics against <i>S. aureus</i> were&nbsp;investigated using the checkerboard method. Interesting, <b>Ru(II)-2</b> could selectivity increase the susceptibility of <i>S. aureus</i> to some aminoglycoside antibiotics. &nbsp;Finally, &nbsp;murine skin infection model&nbsp;verified <b>Ru(II)-2</b> were highly effective against <i>S. aureus in vivo</i> . Taken together,&nbsp;ruthenium complexes functionalized with furan-substituted ligands&nbsp;prepared here have good antimicrobial activity <i>in vitro</i> and <i>in vivo</i>.
Hydrodynamics of Sieve Tray Distillation Column Using CFD Simulation

Sieve trays are widely used in the gas- liquid contactors such as distillation and absorption towers. In this article, a three-dimensional, two phase CFD model using Euler-Euler framework was developed to simulate a distillation tower with two sieve trays. Hydrodynamic simulation of air and water system in different rates of gas phase was carried out and velocity distribution parameters, clear liquid height and froth height were calculated and compared to the experimental data and the literature simulation result. Liquid velocity distributions on the two trays were found to be in relatively good agreement with experimental data. It was found that heights of accumulated liquid in the down-comers are not equal.
Dispersion-constrained martingale Schrödinger problems and the exact joint S&P 500/VIX smile calibration puzzle

We solve for the first time a longstanding puzzle of quantitative finance that has often been described as the holy grail of volatility modelling: build a model that jointly and exactly calibrates to the prices of S&P 500 (SPX) options, VIX futures and VIX options. We use a nonparametric discrete-time approach: given a VIX future maturity T 1 $T_{1}$ , we consider the set P ${\mathcal {P}}$ of all probability measures on the SPX at T 1 $T_{1}$ , the VIX at T 1 $T_{1}$ and the SPX at T 2 = T 1 + 30 $T_{2} = T_{1} + 30$ days which are perfectly calibrated to the full SPX smiles at T 1 $T_{1}$ and T 2 $T_{2}$ and the full VIX smile at T 1 $T_{1}$ , and which also satisfy the martingality constraint on the SPX as well as the requirement that the VIX is the implied volatility of the 30-day log-contract on the SPX. By casting the superreplication problem as a dispersion-constrained martingale optimal transport problem , we first establish a strong duality theorem and prove that the absence of joint SPX/VIX arbitrage is equivalent to P ≠ ∅ ${\mathcal {P}}\neq \emptyset $ . Should they arise, joint arbitrages are identified using classical linear programming. In their absence, we then provide a solution to the joint calibration puzzle by solving a dispersion-constrained martingale Schrödinger problem : we choose a reference measure and build the unique jointly calibrating model that minimises the relative entropy. We establish several duality results. The minimum-entropy jointly calibrating model is explicit in terms of the dual Schrödinger portfolio , i.e., the maximiser of the dual problem, should the latter exist, and is numerically computed using an extension of the Sinkhorn algorithm. Numerical experiments show that the algorithm performs very well in both low and high volatility regimes.
Two "Once-in-100-Year" Crises in Twelve Years - Are Channels for Financial Contagion Still the Same?

The past twelve years were punctuated by increasingly complex dynamics of the cross-market interdependence and two ``once-in-100-year'' global financial crises, including the 2020 financial contagion through increased physical contagion during the COVID-19 pandemic. This paper develops a non-linear financial contagion network via a dynamic mixture copula-EVT (extreme value theory) model to quantitatively detect and measure the complex nature of financial contagion. Considering the crisis transmission from both macroeconomic fundamentals and investor constraint perspectives, we identify and investigate the dynamics of transmission channels for both 2008 and 2020 financial crises. More specifically, we explore the wealth effect and portfolio rebalancing through the asymmetric tail contagion channels across 22 major emerging and developed stock markets and compare the differences between the two major crises. Moreover, motivated by the V-shape rebound in these two crises, we examine and find evidence that the transmission channels between the market melt-down and melt-up periods are different. Our findings shed new light on the dynamics of crisis transmission mechanisms across countries and provide important implications for international investors and policymakers.
Does the WTO Have Deflationary Impact?

The aim of this article is to study the relationship between WTO membership and inflation in member countries. Based on expected benefits of WTO membership, the author hypothesize that WTO has had deflationary impact in member economies, especially for the economies joined the organization after 2000. In this context, the research covers 17 countries of which 8 are low income and lower middle income, 5 are upper middle income and 4 are high income countries. After carrying out time-series analysis for each country and panel data analysis for each income level group, the research concludes that the relationship differs across countries. Although in many countries, the impact of WTO membership over inflation is negative, countries such as Vietnam and Ukraine observe statistically positive impact. Despite of some exceptions, findings of this research defend the hypothesis that WTO membership has deflationary impact.
A Comparative Study on Portfolio Evaluation Measures with Respect to Equity Growth Mutual Funds

Risk and return go together. For a higher return, one has to take a higher risk. Risk cannot be avoided but definitely can be minimized through diversification. Mutual funds do risk diversification by investing in various companies. But still, they have to face risk when the markets are highly volatile. Investor’s perception towards risk and return is continuously changing. To diversify the risk, the investors choose the best fund to get more return. Investors use various evaluation measures like Sharpe, Treynor, and Jensen measures, for selecting the best fund to minimize the risk and maximize the return. Is all evaluation measure giving the same proposal to the investor? To know this, Research is focusing the Comparative study on various portfolio evaluation measures with respect to equity growth mutual funds.
The U.S. Workforce of Foreign H-1B Specialty Workers: En Bloc Matching Estimate of Petitioners Microdata

We address the fundamental yet long overdue question that U.S. immigration policies hinge on: “How big is the H-1B specialty workforce? ” During the past decade, the H-1B specialty visa annually admitted between 125,000 and 155,000 skilled foreign workers for a stay of up to six years, suggesting a workforce of say 840,000 if all stayed. Survey-based and government estimates of the stock do not uniquely identify H-1Bs; and indirect estimates must assume (unobserved) rates of attrition such as emigration. We provide estimates using government “petitions” microdata from 2000 to 2010, which contains over more than two million records, matching individual characteristics en bloc between years and from new-to-renewed visas; summing up blocks of matched H-1Bs from 2005 to 2010. This generates a median estimate of 540,000 H-1Bs mid-decade and 476,000 by the end of the decade in the wake of the 2008 recession. The size of this estimate is smaller, and the attrition rates between new and visa continuations, of between one- and two-thirds, are greater than casual expectations. The H-1B earns roughly 8 percent more after renewing their visa. <br><br>We found that there are fewer H-1B workers than previously presumed, and that these workers have a high attrition. We are the first to examine the matching rates from new to continuing H-1B cohorts, and the somewhat low matching rates give invaluable insight to the mobility among this workforce. We concluded that the H-1B workforce is fairly mobile, quickly responding to economic cycles and the nature of the visa marketplace.
The Effectiveness of Social Advertising

Although social advertising has grown to be one of the major online advertising channels in recent years, its effectiveness is not been fully understood. In this study, we use data from a large-scale field experiment on a major social media platform (WeChat Moments) to investigate how the display of social cues (friends' likes) in an advertisement affects users' responses. In the experiment, we randomly manipulate the presence of social cues in ads shown to 37 million users. We distinguish two types of consumer response: publicly observable responses that reveal whether a user has liked an ad, and private responses whereby a user clicks on an ad. We find that on average, displaying the first social cue significantly enhances the liking and clickthrough rates. However, while showing additional social cues can further increase users' tendency to like, it does not increase the clickthrough rate any further. This empirical pattern is consistent with the coexistence of informational social influence and normative social influence in social advertising. We find evidence that informational influence has a greater impact on the clickthrough rate, whereas normative social influence has a more prominent effect on the liking rate. Our results provide rich implications for advertisers and social media platforms in designing social advertising policies.
Broadband complex dielectric constants of water and sodium chloride aqueous solutions with different DC conductivities

Broadband dielectric constant measurements in the frequency range between 40 Hz and 50 GHz of pure water, tap water, and sodium chloride aqueous solutions with different DC conductivities up to 5 S/m were conducted. The measurements were done using an impedance analyzer for the frequency range 40 Hz to 110 MHz and a vector network analyzer for 10 MHz to 50 GHz. The results show that the dielectric constant decreases with the increase in DC conductivity and is dependent on the frequency. The dielectric relaxation of water with a constant dielectric loss peak was also observed. The frequency dependence of the conductivity is also large. © 2014 Institute of Electrical Engineers of Japan. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Does Internalization Diminish the Impact of Quote Aggressiveness on Dealer Market Share?

We analyze data provided by NASDAQ to examine how quote aggressiveness affects dealer market share and whether the practice of internalization mitigates the impact of quote aggressiveness. Our empirical results show that although internalization does not reduce the impact of price aggressiveness on dealer market share, it mitigates the impact of size aggressiveness. This result suggests that although internalization may not affect the dealer's incentive to post aggressive prices, it may reduce the incentive to post large depths. We find that aggressive quotes are more effective in raising dealer market share in stocks with a less competitive (more concentrated) market structure. Our results also show that the effective spread is wider (narrower) for stocks with a smaller price (size) elasticity of dealer market share.
Comparison Between a Closed and an Open Economy with NDC Pension Scheme and Imperfect Labor Market

Wang (2018) elucidates the relationship between NDC pension and fertility in a two-period OLG model of a small open economy with an imperfect labor market. What if the analysis is conducted in a closed economy? This study demonstrates an economic comparison between a closed and open economy with NDC pension scheme and unemployment due to efficiency wage by building up a similar model in a closed economy and compares the welfare between two scenarios. The results show that the small open economy displays much higher welfare compared to the closed one, no matter whether the NDC account rate is endogenous or exogenous.
The Governance Effect of Institutional Investors and Outsider Directors on the Properties of Management Earnings Forecasts

This paper investigates the effect of institutional ownership and board of directors' composition on the properties of management earnings forecasts. A firm's optimal disclosure policy is determined by a trade-off between costs and benefits of disclosure. Managers acting in their self-interest may have incentives to distort disclosure policy. Governance mechanisms, to the extent they are effective in protecting the interests of the providers of capital, should mitigate these distortions. We find evidence that institutional ownership and outsider directors have a favorable governance effect on the properties of earnings forecasts. Firms with greater institutional ownership and outside directorship are more likely to issue a forecast and do so consistently. Further, these forecasts tend to be more specific and accurate. The governance measures also mitigate managers' tendency to issue optimistic forecasts. Lastly, our evidence suggests that institutional ownership creates an environment that enhances the credibility of the forecasts.
Hydrothermal Synthesis and Crystal Structure of a New Organic-Inorganic Magnesium Complex, Designed to Produce Efficient Sorbent for the Removal of the Antibiotic Tetracycline

The present study reports the synthesis of a new organic-inorganic hybrid complex formulated as [Mg(phen)(H 2 O) 4 ]bdc. phen. H 2 O ( 1 ) where phen = 1, 10-phenanthroline and bdc 2- = isophthalato by hydrothermal method at 110oC for 3 days. The structure of compound 1 was characterized by elemental analysis, thermal gravimetric analysis (TGA), differential thermal analysis (DTA) and single-crystal X-ray diffraction (SCXRD). The results of SCXRD analysis revealed a monoclinic structure with space group P 2 1 / n of the expected complex. For the first time, effective sorbent of MgO/SiO 2 was prepared by thermolysis [Mg(phen)(H 2 O) 4 ]bdc. phen. H 2 O/SiO 2 as a new precursor. The obtained sorbent was characterized by Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), powder X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and Brunauer–Emmett –Teller (BET) specific surface area. The synthesized catalyst was applied for tetracycline (TC) removal from aqueous solution in order to assess its potential as a sorbent. At 25oC with no NaCl, the synthetic catalyst shows the maximum removal of about 85.2%. Also, the results show that the TC removal is highly pH-dependent and reached a maximum value at pH of 6. The influence of the TC dosage and the solution temperature on the removal process were also assessed. From the results it can be concluded that the synthetic sorbent has acceptable activity in the removal of TC from contaminated waters as well as centrifugation separation, advantage in use and acceptable recyclability.
Towards a More Comprehensive Understanding of Emergence of Platform Based Ecosystems

Though the burgeoning literature on platform ecosystem has sought to understand different aspects of this emerging phenomenon, the topic of ecosystem emergence has not received enough attention. In this paper, we identify the conditions under which ecosystems emerge and explain why they emerge in different formats. We focus on the problem as the unit of analysis, such that the solutions to the problem create the value propositions of the ecosystem. We extend the problem-solving perspective to ecosystems and identify conditions for ecosystem emergence around problem dimensions, platform sponsors’ resource configuration and capabilities, and market attributes employed. Finally, we introduce the construct of marketness to ecosystems to explain the emergence of heterogenous ecosystems by mapping the different conditions for ecosystem emergence at various levels of marketness. Our paper is one of the few to fully explain ecosystem emergence as it overcomes the challenges of explaining the emergence of ex-ante unknown actors.
Pay for Security: Auditor Risk Response in China’s Anti Corruption Campaign

We take China’s anti-corruption campaign as an exogenous shock to test the auditor risk response under political uncertainty. Using multiple DID approach, we use 16207 hand-collected observations from 2207 firms from Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) showing that audit fee increases after CCDI visits the firms. The effect is more pronounced in SOE; in the firms audited by non-big four accounting firms; in the political cycling industries and in the firms that change auditors. Furthermore, we explore the effect is pronounced in the regions where the provincial officials are investigated and in the political cycle industry. <br><br>
Individual Performance Appraisal of Employees in Central Public Administration in Western Balkans

This ReSPA study assesses the quality of implementing individual staff performance appraisal in the Western Balkan countries, notably Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Northern Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo*. It provides a comprehensive overview of similarities and differences of trends in performance appraisal vis a vis EU countries and provides recommendations for improvement of individual performance appraisal.
Grantmaking

The paper develops a foundational model of the decentralized allocation of subsidies through competitive grantmaking. Casting the problem in a simple supply and demand framework, we characterize the level of applications and acceptance standard that result in equilibrium. The equilibrium success rate (grants over applications) decreases in the budget, consistent with some recent evidence, if and only if the distribution of types has decreasing hazard rate. In all stable equilibria resulting when funds are allocated across fields proportionally to applications--as well as under apportionment rules in a general class characterized in the paper--an increase in noise in the evaluation in a field perversely raises applications in that field and reduces applications in all the other fields. We characterize how the design of allocation rules can be modified to improve welfare.