The effect of individual characteristics on susceptibility to aggressive and/or intimidating approaches: quantifying probability pathways by creating a victimization model

ABSTRACT Background: A significant body of literature has identified multiple factors that contribute to established victimization by aggressive and/or intimidating behaviours. These studies primarily originate from the fields of intimate partner violence (IPV), bullying, sexual abuse, and/or commercial sexual exploitation (CSE), and generally focus on female victims. It appears, however, complicated to quantify the cumulative contribution of these factors on susceptibility to intimidating and/or hostile engagements on an individual level. Objective: To develop a comprehensive risk model to quantify, on an individual level, the cumulative effects of previously reported characteristics on susceptibility to aggressive/intimidating approaches, leading to victimization (e.g. in the context of IPV/sexual abuse). Methods: A Bayesian belief network was developed using data from previous studies, capturing the multivariate contribution of previously reported characteristics on the likelihood of becoming victimized by aggressive and/or intimidating approaches (e.g. in the IPV/CSE context) in female victims aged 12–24 years. Results: The model showed that specific combinations of characteristics may contribute to an increased likelihood of victimization (e.g. in the context of IPV/bullying/sexual abuse or CSE). This likelihood could be quantified and categorized into specific clusters of factors differentiating between victimization by physically violent, non-physical, and/or sexual aggressive/intimidating approaches. Conclusion: The present model appears to be the first to successfully quantify the cumulative contribution of individual characteristics on the likelihood of becoming victimized by aggressive and/or intimidating approaches, typically leading to victimization. Moreover, the present scientific effort and resulting model suggest that there may be a latent variable mediating between the implemented factors and overall outcome, i.e. the susceptibility to aggressive and/or intimidating approaches. From that perspective, the model may also be considered as an initial outline to effectively indicate susceptibility to such approaches. HIGHLIGHTS This study constructed a Bayesian belief network of published statistics to quantify the cumulative effects of individual characteristics on victimization (e.g. in the context of IPV/sexual abuse/bullying/CSE). The model showed that the likelihood of victimization following aggressive and/or intimidating approaches could be quantified and categorized into three different features: the likelihood of becoming victimized by physically violent, non-physical, and/or sexual aggressive/intimidating approaches. The likelihood of becoming victimized by physically violent and non-physical aggressive/intimidating approaches seems to be predominantly characterized by risk factors such as depressive symptoms and elevated neuroticism. The likelihood of victimization by sexual intimidating approaches seems to be primarily associated with externalizing risk factors (e.g. impulsivity), strengthened by factors related to previous (negative) sexual experiences and early-onset puberty. This model could be considered as an initial outline to effectively indicate susceptibility to aggressive/intimidating approaches. The model may therefore be considered an applicable framework for future research to further unravel the complicated aggressive and/or intimidating victim–perpetrator interactions related to victimization.