RURAL-URBAN MIGRATIONS: IMPLICATIONS FOR RURAL DEVELOPMENT PLANNING IN NIGERIA

Basically, the paper examined rural urban migrations and its implications for development planning in Nigeria. The major causes of rural-urban migrations in Nigeria are the expectations of higher incomes and better standards of living as postulated by the Todaro model, which forms the theoretical basis for the paper. In addition, some other models that help to explain rural development such as the development theory; the capitalist ideologies of rural development; the classical and Neo-classical model, the dual economy models and the Nigerian model of rural development were equally highlighted. Finally, the paper proffers a number of policy implications for the government to reduce the spatial imbalance that exists between the rural and urban centres. Introduction Migration, simply, put, involves a permanent of semi-permanent change of residence and is usually considered to be rational. It is an economic man's reaction to economic differentials between regions; although it has been established that factors, which are non economic also, induce migrations (Oguntoymbo, et al], 1978). In part, migration originated as a result of population increases in part stimulated by the "pull" effect exercised by expectation of higher incomes and better Jiving standards outside agriculture. They occur towards the direction of urban and industrial centres, but also take the form of migration towards other rural areas in search of better marginal land, or shifts from agriculture to tertiary within the rural sector (Onokerhoraye and Okafor, 1994). The main reason people migrate is to find better jobs and higher wages as shown by both economic analyses and surveys of migrants. At the same time the distance to potential . destinations and the quality and quantity of information about them help to shape migration decisions. Migrants tend to be young and better educated, in part because young, better-educated people can best take advantage of the opportunities offered by migration. In Africa and much of Asia, most migrants are men, in Latin America and parts of East Asia, women predominate (Population Reports, 1983). It is now generally thought that migrants move chiefly in search of higher earnings. The economic interpretation of migration developed in the 1960s out of growing concern among policy makers and planners, about the relationships among population growth, urbanization and development (U.N. 1983). In 1964 Simon Kuznets outlined largely on the basis of U.S. experience, how economic growth and development could lead to migration viz: i) Technological advances change what people buy and so change the demand for workers in different jobs, ii) Employers often choose to locate in cities because they want easy access to raw materials, communication and transportation and consumer markets. Thus many new jobs are created in cities, even if workers must migrate from the country side to fill them, i i i) As industrialization proceeds, a smaller proportion of people work on farms because technological changes in agriculture reduce labour needs. Also, agriculture generally expands more slowly than industry, since as income rise; people spend more of their new income on manufactured goods than on food, iv) The natural increases of the population and also the growth of the labour supply is higher in rural areas than in urban. Thus, migration must "compensate not only for the more rapid growth of demand for labour outside of agriculture but also for the higher rate of natural increase of agricultural labour" (Kuznets, 1964). Deriving from the above, by 1970 Michael Todaro and John Harris, had proposed that rates of rural to urban migration depend on: 1) The difference in wages or earnings between areas of destination and origin; and, 2) The chances of finding a job at the destination (Harris and Todaro, 1970). In addition, research findings have supported the Todaro's model that the rate of rural to -urban migration was higher where there was a greater difference between rural wages on one hand, and urban wages multiplied by the probabilities of finding an urban job on the other hand (Bahrin, 1981). An understanding of the causes and determinants of rural-urban migration and the relationship between migration and relative economic opportunities in urban and rural areas is central to any analysis of African employment problems. In view of the fact that migrants comprise a significant proportion of the urban labour force in most African nations, the magnitude of rural-urban migration has been and will continue to be a principal determinant of the supply of new job seekers. Therefore, the migration process must be understood before the nature and causes of urban unemployment can be comprehended. Government policies intended to ameliorate the urban unemployment problem must be based, in the first instance, on knowledge of who comes to town and why. (Todaro, 1969). The factors influencing the decision to migrate are varied and complex. Because migration is a selective process-affecting individuals with certain economic, social, education and demographic characteristics, the relative influence of economic and non-economic factors may vary not only between nations and regions but also within defined geographic areas and populations. Much of the early research on migration tended to focus on social, cultural, and psychological factors while recognizing, but not evaluating carefully, the importance of economic variable. Emphasis has been placed on five broad areas: 1) Social factors, including the desire of migrants to break away from traditional constraints of social or kinship affiliations; 2) Physical factors, including climate and metrological disasters like floods and droughts, as well as wars and rural violence; 3) Demographic factors in mortality rates and concomitant high rates of rural population growth; 4) Cultural factors, including the security of African urban extended family relationships and the allure of modern urban amenities; 5) Communication factors, including improved transportation, urban-oriented educational systems, and the modernizing impact of radio, television and cinema (Todaro, 1969). It has been observed that all these non-economic factors are relevant. However, widespread agreement now exists among economist and non-economists that rural-urban migrations can be explained primarily as a result of economic factors. These include not only the standard push from subsistence agriculture and the pull of relatively high urban wages but also the potential push back toward rural areas as a result of high urban unemployment. Theoretical Framework The theoretical framework for this paper is based on the theory of Rural Urban migration propounded by Todaro (1969). Based on the assumption that migration is primarily an economic phenomenon, which for the individual migrant can be a rational decision to make despite the existence of urban unemployment, this model postulates that migration proceeds in response to urbanrural differences in expected income rather than actual earnings. The fundamental premise is that migrants and their families consider the various labour market opportunities available to them in the rural and urban sectors and choose the one that maximizes their expected gains from migration, Expected gains are measured by the difference in real incomes between rural and urban work and the probability of new migrants obtaining an urban job. A schematic framework showing how the varying factors interact to affect the migration decision in Africa is shown in Fig. 1 below. In essence, the theory assumes that members of the labour force both actual and potential compare their expected incomes for a given time horizon in the urban sector (the difference between returns and costs of migration) with prevailing average rural incomes and migrate, if the former exceeds the latter. The Todaro migration model has four basic characteristics: i) Migration is stimulated primarily by rational economic considerations of relative benefits and cost. i i ) The decision of migration depends on expected rather than actual urban rural wage differential where the expected differential is determined by the interaction of two variables, the urban-rural differential and the probability of obtaining employment in the urban sector. iii) The probability of obtaining an urban job is directly related to the urban employment rate and this is inversely related to the urban unemployment rate. iv) Migration rates in excess of job opportunity growth rates are not only possible but also rational and even likely in the face of wide urban -rural expected income differentials. Figure I: Schematic Framework for Analyzing the Migration Decision in Africa High rates of urban unemployment are, therefore, inevitable outcomes of the serious imbalance of economic opportunities between urban and rural areas in most African countries. Rural Development Theory The literature on rural development is rich in ideology and theory. The term rural development at present means various things to various people (Williams, 1978). According to Diejomoah rural development is a process of not only increasing the level of per capita income in the rural sector, but also the standard of living of the rural population. This definition goes on to observe that the standard of living depends on a complex of factors such as food and nutrition levels, health, education, housing, recreation and security among others. Udo (1984), Lele (1975), have observed that rural development implies improving living standards of the mass of the low income population residing in rural areas making the process of their development self-sustaining. Thus, development is associated with changes in social and economic structure institutions, relationship and process (Williams, 1978). It entails the creation and fair sharing of social and economic benefits resulting from this growth. The various ideologies that