Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Local to unity, long-horizon forecasting thresholds for model selection in the AR(1)

This article introduces a novel framework for analysing long-horizon forecasting of the near non-stationary AR(1) model. Using the local to unity specification of the autoregressive parameter, I derive the asymptotic distributions of long-horizon forecast errors both for the unrestricted AR(1), estimated using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and for the random walk (RW). I then identify functions, relating local to unity 'drift' to forecast horizon, such that OLS and RW forecasts share the same expected square error. OLS forecasts are preferred on one side of these 'forecasting thresholds', while RW forecasts are preferred on the other. In addition to explaining the relative performance of forecasts from these two models, these thresholds prove useful in developing model selection criteria that help a forecaster reduce error. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
You Don’t Blow Your Diet on Twinkies: Choice Processes When Choice Options Conflict with Incidental Goals

Consumers often have multiple goals that are active simultaneously and make choices to satisfy those goals. However, no work to date has studied how people choose when all available options serve a goal (e.g., a choice-set goal) that conflicts with another goal they hold (e.g., an incidental goal). We demonstrate that in such contexts, consumers are more likely to choose the option that is most instrumental for attaining the choice-set goal, even when that option poses the greatest violation of the incidental goal. This occurs because the experience of goal conflict increases consumers’ need to justify their choices. Since the consumer will violate their incidental goal by choosing any of the available alternatives, we propose that the most justifiable reason for violating the incidental goal would be to maximize on the choice-set goal. Six experiments provide evidence for these effects and the underlying theoretical mechanism.
Improve Data Security Protection Mechanism For Cloud Storage Using Two Components

This system proposed an improve data security protection mechanism for cloud using two components. In this system sender sends an encrypted message to a receiver with the help of cloud system. The sender requires to know identity of receiver but no need of other information such as certificate or public key. To decrypt the cipher text, receiver needs two parts. The first thing is a unique personal security device or some hardware device connected to the computer system. Second one is private key or secrete key stored in the computer. Without having these two things cipher text never decrypted. The important thing is the security device lost or stolen, then cipher text cannot be decrypted and hardware device is revoked or cancelled to decrypt cipher text. The efficiency and security analysis show that the system is secure as well as practically implemented. The system uses a new hardware device like pen drive etc.to decrypt the cipher text together with the private key.
Spotlights and shadows: Preliminary findings about the experiences of women in family business leadership roles

Abstract In an earlier study (Moores & Barrett 2002) we found successful CEOs had learned leadership of family controlled businesses (FCBs) in a series of distinct learning phases. Because that study's sample did not include many women, our present study focuses on women in FCBs to better understand how they exercise leadership and entrepreneurship in the family firm context. Case study analysis of an international sample of women FCB leaders, using frameworks which avoid essentialist assumptions about women's and men's approach to leadership, suggests there are some characteristic ways women leaders learn FCB leadership and entrepreneurship roles. We have tentatively labelled them stumbling into the spotlight, building your own stage, directing the spotlight elsewhere, and coping with shadows. Some interviewees had failed to attain leadership; we labelled their journey becoming invisible. This paper uses Eisenhardt's (1989) framework to elaborate on the stumbling into the spotlight and coping with shadows journeys and what can be learned from them.
Estimating lead time using Markov Chains

The goal of this thesis is to create a prediction model that can estimate the lead time of LFL (Load Forming Logic), a software product of Vanderlande Industries B.V. The research started by investigating order data, such as weight and volume, and continued with a series of regression, ensemble and Markov chains models. Out of all the proposed solutions, two models have been chosen: Elastic net regression and Markov chains. The results showed that even though Elastic net regression had better results, it is more sensitive to LFL's configuration parameters and different inputs than Markov chains.
Import Substitution Strategy and Ways of Marketing, Its Implementation Using the Dairy Industry of the Russian Federation as an Example

The paper deals with the features of the development of Russia’s dairy industry; these peculiarities are connected with the introduction of food sanctions against the USA and the EU countries as well the issues of an effective import substitution strategy. The unfavorable factors leading to a threat of the crisis in the industry and the weakening of the food security of the Russian Federation are determined. Based on the analysis of secondary information, industry studies, marketing studies of specialized agencies to assess the state and trends of the development of the Russian dairy industry in terms of economic sanctions, the authors suggested a number of recommendations aimed at modernizing and restoring the technological base of the dairy industry, increasing its financial potential and improving the management strategy. Because of the conducted marketing research, the demand-supply ratio in the domestic dairy market was determined as well as the state of competition and the possibilities for introducing innovations. According to the results of expert interviews with dairy products sellers, sales representatives and supervisors of dairy plants, the dynamics of consumer preferences were revealed. The implementation of the proposed measures promotes the growth of competitiveness of the dairy industry in Russia along with its financial stabilization, as well as accelerated modernization of the agro-industrial complex providing import substitution.
Sorption of Heavy Metals by Ferralic-Arenosol and Vertic-Luvisol: A Comparative Isothermal Study

Modeling of sorption data is essential for characterizing retention of heavy metals by the soil matrices as well as to predict the fate of heavy metals in the environment. We carried out a study to evaluate adsorption characteristics of metallic ions (Cr 3+ , Pb 2+ and Cu 2+ ) as sole sorbates as well as in coexistence onto clay extracts of Vertic-Luvisol and Ferralic-Arenosol, the generally under-researched yet wide-spread semi-arid soils. Additionally, sorption kinetics of these heavy metals was evaluated in these soils. Equilibrium sorption data for both non-competitive and competitive metal systems were found to obey the Langmuir isotherm. Overall metal loading capacity was higher in Vertic-Luvisol than Ferralic-Arenosol whereas metal-wise affinity to binding sites favoured sorption of Cr 3+ over Pb 2+ and Cu 2+ in that order. Contrary to the hypothesis of this study, the preferential sorption process was found to be driven by cationic properties as opposed to soil properties. Adsorption of metallic ions onto soils was significantly reduced in competitive systems than non-competitive systems, a phenomenon attributable to the antagonistic effects of coexisting species. Cr 3+ suppressed sorption of Pb 2+ and Cu 2+ on both soils as validated by the competitive adsorption capacity ratios which were < 1 in all instances where Cr 3+ coexisted with either one of Pb 2+ or Cu 2+ . The adsorption kinetics of metal ions in both soils followed the pseudo-second-order rate law, suggesting chemical sorption as the rate-limiting step of the adsorption process.
DROUGHT ANALYSIS IN KIZILIRMAK BASIN USING STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX METHOD

Kızılırmak Basin is the largest basin in Turkey after Fırat-Dicle Basin and has the longest river of Turkey (Kızılırmak River). The basin is surrounded by West Karadeniz and Sakarya Basins in the west, Yeşilırmak Basin in the east, Konya Closed Basin in the southwest, and Seyhan and Fırat-Dicle Basins in the southeast. Drought analysis is important for the planning and management of water resources. In this study, droughts occurred in Kızılırmak Basin between the years 1973 and 2013 were investigated by using standardized precipitation index (SPI) method. SPI values of Kızılırmak Basin were calculated for 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 and 60-month time scales and 60-month time scale was used for the first time for drought analysis of Kızılırmak Basin based on SPI. When compared with the droughts in the past, important increases in the durations of the last droughts occurred in the basin were determined for 12 and 60-month time scales.
Bayesian and Dominant Strategy Implementation Revisited

We consider a standard social choice environment with linear utility and one-dimensional types. We show by counterexample that, when there are at least three physical alternatives, Bayes-Nash Incentive Compatibility (BIC) and Dominant Strategy Incentive Compatibility (DIC) need no longer be equivalent. The example with three alternatives is minimal since we do obtain a general equivalence result for settings with only two social alternatives. Our negative result does not mathematically contradict the Manelli and Vincent (2010) equivalence obtained in a one-object auction setting, but it shows that BIC-DIC equivalence is only valid in restrictive environments. Our insights are based on mathematical results about the existence of monotone measures with given monotone marginals.
Transport and Recovery of Bacteriophage PRD1 in a Sand and Gravel Aquifer: Effect of Sewage-Derived Organic Matter

To test the effects of sewage-derived organic matter on virus attachment, 32P-labeled bacteriophage PRD1, linear alkylbenzene sulfonates (LAS), and tracers were injected into sewage-contaminated (suboxic, elevated organic matter) and uncontaminated (oxic, low organic matter) zones of an iron oxide-coated quartz sand and gravel aquifer on Cape Cod, MA. In the uncontaminated zone, 83% of the PRD1 were attenuated over the first meter of transport by attachment to aquifer grains. In the contaminated zone, 42% of the PRD1 were attenuated over the first meter of transport. Sewage-derived organic matter contributed to the difference in PRD1 attenuation by blocking attachment sites in the contaminated zone. At greater distances down-gradient (to a total transport distance of 3.6 m), a near-constant amount of PRD1 continued to break through, suggesting that aquifer grain heterogeneities allowed a small amount of reversible attachment. Injection of an LAS mixture (25 mg L-1), a common sewage constituent, remobilize.
VE BEKLENTİLERİ TEACHER AND ADMINISTRATOR PERCEPTIONS AND EXPECTATIONS TOWARDS ADMINISTRATIVE SKILLS OF EDUCATIONAL ADMINISTRATORS

The administrative skills of educational adnıinistrators have been a sııbject o f considerable debate and research in education. Many k'ınds of program are designed to improve school adnıinistrators' administrative capacities and skills. This study exanıines the administrative skills currently foımd among high school adnıinistrators, and teachers1 and administrators' expectations concerning the ideal skills an adnıinistrator shoııld have. The Administrative Skills Iııventory (ASI) developed by the researcher was used to collect data. The results shovved that while ali the sııbjects'perceptions of the administrative skills of administrators' administrative skills were very low, expectations were very high.
Cancer Acquired Resistance: A New Lesson from Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia

Despite decades of research and improvement of our understanding, the mechanisms of cancer, progress of cancer treatment has been slow. Targeted therapy is the most important advancement in cancer treatment by specifically inhibiting cancer-causing events, which improves the outcome of several types of human cancer in recent years [1]. However, targeted therapy is generally short-lived as cancer cells rapidly develop resistance (acquired resistance) against the treatment, resulting disease relapse. Acquisition of genetic mutations is a major mechanism underlying the resistance with different molecular targets in a variety of cancers including Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML), lung, colon, breast and gastrointestinal cancers [1]. The conventional explanation is that rare pre-existing mutations formed through random mutagenesis may be selected for resistance under chemotherapy. Indeed, certain cancer patients do harbor detectable resistant mutations before targeted therapy [2-4]. However, what is not known is whether those rare pre-existing mutations solely account for the entire mutation load observed in patients and their relapse. This increasingly becomes a concern given that the majority of patients, for example CML, do not harbor detectable resistant mutations before treatment [5,6]. Although one could always blame the sensitivity of mutation detection methods, mechanistically, we know very little about how resistant mutations are actually acquired during cancer therapy.
Integration of three important urban spaces in the city of Patras. A design research on the relationship of characteristics of space and the enriched environment

This contribution presents a design project that focuses on three important urban spaces in the city of Patras. The contribution deals with some of the fundamental problems which depict in these particular areas. Two of the most essential issues of these abandoned and isolated places are the accessibility of pedestrians and the lack of identity. A design experiment is developed, identifying disadvantages of the space and taking into consideration groups of people that are interested in an upcoming change, This experiment is based on knowledge of neuroscience about space and it deals with human’s experience and senses. It focuses on open urban spaces and the consolidation of a cultural and historical place into daily life.
Clauser-Horne inequality for three-state systems

We show a new Bell-Clauser-Horne inequality for two entangled three-dimensional quantum systems (socalled qutrits). This inequality is not violated by a maximally entangled state of two qutrits observed through a symmetric three-input- and three-output-port beam splitter only if the amount of noise in the system is greater than (11-6√3)/20.308. This result is in a perfect agreement with the previous numerical calculations presented in Kaszlikowski et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 85, 4418 (2000)]. Moreover, we prove that for noiseless case, the necessary and sufficient condition for the threshold quantum efficiency of detectors below which there is no violation of local realism for the optimal choice of observables is equal to 6(15-4√3)/590.821. This efficiency result again agrees with the numerical predictions.
Varieties of systems of innovation: A survey of their evolution in growth theory and economic geography

The systems of innovation (SI) approach has been established and extended during the last two decades. Although elementary goals and progress have been reached through seminal contributions by Freeman (1987), Lundvall (1992) or Nelson (1993), in designing a generic approach, displaying the dynamics of collaboration, networking and interactive learning, criticism has been raised that systems of innovation are still 'undertheorized'. The objective of this paper is to describe briefly the historical evolution of the SI concept within the academic literature and the policy sphere. This review primarily attempts to highlight some of the most important contributions that strongly assisted to the framework, by providing more consistency and a more theory- oriented perspective. Consequently, the system concept itself seems to be a kind of 'boundary object'. Within both, the academic and the policy field, different levels of conceptualization have been challenged and advanced in the course of time. These conceptualizations basically differ in their scale of analysis, taking geographical perspectives, technologies or sectoral classifications as foci for theorizing and empirical research. Despite these substantial levels of research, the SI framework is increasingly challenged, analyzed and extended in the context of globalization. As a result, regarding the openness and flexibility of the SI approach, this paper particularly tries to focus on the difficulties of contemporary research in defining functional and spatial boundaries in theory and empirical research. Agglomeration tendencies, knowledge externalities and localized learning are primarily based upon the concepts of knowledge diffusion, tacit knowledge and proximity. In spite of that, ICT and global business linkages foster inter-regional and trans-border knowledge flows. Thus, knowledge diffusion is also related to international and global 'pipelines' that could support, strengthen and reinforce localized learning.
Minimization of Logistics Cost and Carbon Emissions Based on Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization

This paper aims to simultaneously minimize logistics costs and carbon emissions. For this purpose, a mathematical model for a three-echelon supply chain network is created considering the relevant constraints such as capacity, production cost, transport cost, carbon emissions, and time window, which will be solved by the proposed quantum-particle swarm optimization algorithm. The three-echelon supply chain, consisting of suppliers, distribution centers, and retailers, is established based on the number and location of suppliers, the transport method from suppliers to distribution centers, and the quantity of products to be transported from suppliers to distribution centers and from these centers to retailers. Then, a quantum-particle swarm optimization is described as its performance is validated with different benchmark functions. The scenario analysis validates the model and evaluates its performance to balance the economic benefit and environmental effect.
Biogenic volatile compounds of activated sludge and their application for metal bioremediation

Heavy metals pollution is nowadays one of the most important environmental concerns. This paper illustrates the employment of the biogenic volatile compounds generated during the aerobic growth of activated sludge on raw domestic wastewater for heavy metals removal. Most of the tested metals even as individual or mixed metal species (Co, Cu, Cd, Fe, Hg, Ni, Mn, Pb and Zn) were potentially transformed into insoluble precipitates and then separated out of their solutions. The Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) analysis has identified some organosulfur groups (thiol, disulfide and thiocarbonyl), in addition to amine group in the metal precipitates. This study highlighted the application of the microbial volatile metabolites for heavy metals bioremediation in a powerful, cost effective and eco-friendly bioprocess.
Litter decomposition in a Cerrado savannah stream is retarded by leaf toughness, low dissolved nutrients and a low density of shredders

Summary 1. To assess whether the reported slow breakdown of litter in tropical Cerrado streams is due to local environmental conditions or to the intrinsic leaf characteristics of local plant species, we compared the breakdown of leaves from Protium brasiliense, a riparian species of Cerrado (Brazilian savannah), in a local and a temperate stream. The experiment was carried out at the time of the highest litter fall in the two locations. An additional summer experiment was conducted in the temperate stream to provide for similar temperature conditions. 2. The breakdown rates (k) of P. brasiliense leaves in the tropical Cerrado stream ranged from 0.0001 to 0.0008 day−1 and are among the slowest reported. They were significantly (F = 20.12, P < 0.05) lower than in the temperate stream (0.0046–0.0055). The maximum ergosterol content in decomposing leaves in the tropical Cerrado stream was 106 μg g−1, (1.9% of leaf mass) measured by day 75, which was lower than in the temperate stream where maximum ergosterol content of 522 μg g−1 (9.5% of leaf mass) was achieved by day 30. The ATP content, as an indicator of total microbial biomass, was up to four times higher in the tropical Cerrado than in the temperate stream (194.0 versus 49.4 nmoles g−1). 3. Unlike in the temperate stream, leaves in the tropical Cerrado were not colonised by shredder invertebrates. However, in none of the experiments did leaves exposed (coarse mesh bags) and unexposed (fine mesh bags) to invertebrates differ in breakdown rates (F = 1.15, P > 0.05), indicating that invertebrates were unable to feed on decomposing P. brasiliense leaves. 4. We conclude that the slow breakdown of P. brasiliense leaves in the tropical Cerrado stream was because of the low nutrient content in the water, particularly nitrate (0.05 mgN L−1), which slows down fungal activity and to the low density of invertebrates capable of using these hard leaves as an energy source.
STRATEGIC LAND-USE TRANSPORT PLANNING TO REALISE LOW-CARBON SYSTEMS FOR ASIAN DEVELOPING CITIES

In Asian developing countries, low-carbon transport systems need to be decoupled with economic growth to avoid rapid growth in CO2 emission. This requires developing cities to introduce new transport systems as much as developed cities in a leapfrog manner. However, their existing transport policies have hardly taken such new systems into account, but many of them have been engaged with a palliative approach by constructing roads to reduce traffic congestion against growing motorization. Accordingly, it is important to know what should be done for desirable transport systems there so as to realize Asian low-carbon society in 2050. This study is aimed at identifying the desirable combination of low-carbon strategies for urban passenger transport to achieve the target of CO2 mitigation in Asian developing cities in 2050 with a backcasting approach. First, measures of land-use transport planning suitable for Asian developing cities are classified to their strategies as options to design their low-carbon transport systems. The classification is made with the CUTE matrix for strategies to reduce travel demand (AVOID), to shift travel to lower-carbon modes (SHIFT) and to improve intensity of transport-oriented emission (IMPROVE). Then, the potential effects of measures by transport strategy on CO2 mitigation from intra-city car trips is estimated by modelling motorisation according to economic growth, transport infrastructure development and technology advancement in Asian developing cities. To model leapfrog changes in systems and behaviour in Asian developing cities, hypothesised future changes are modelled by referring to the experience of Japanese cities. Finally, by applying the model to Beijing, Shanghai and Delhi, this analysis examines the required levels of contributions of low-carbon strategies to achieving the target of CO2 mitigation for Asian developing cities. The results suggest that policy packages among transport strategies need to generate drastic changes in urban land-use transport systems, including technologies, to achieve the challenging target of CO2 mitigation.