UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DO RIO GRANDE DO SUL FACULDADE DE MEDICINA PROGRAMA DE PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO EM EPIDEMIOLOGIA TESE DE DOUTORADO MACROSSOMIA NO BRASIL: TENDÊNCIAS TEMPORAIS E EPIDEMIOLOGIA ESPACIAL

Contextualization: Fetal macrosomia means large or overweight fetus, more recently called large for gestational age. The birth weight is affected by many conditions such as gestational age, maternal size, hereditary factors, socioeconomic status, and ethnicity among others. Consequently, an increased morbidity is observed in this situation. The macrosomia temporal trend was investigated in studies conducted in other countries and showed gradual increased prevalence with a heterogeneous geographic distribution. Objectives: To evaluate the temporal trends of fetal macrosomia in the Brazilian territory considering the well known determinants that affect birth weight. To map and identify clusters of macrosomia in the Brazilian territory and its spatial correlation factors. Methods: Descriptive data of 14.509. 859 birth registries were collected in the Brazilian Live Births Information System from 26 states and the Federal District. Statistics were shown in tables for absolute and relative frequencies, arithmetic means and graphics for geometric descriptions. Data of 2.858. 627 birth registries from 2004 were used for the geographic analysis. Spatial statistics methodology was used to identify the clusters and their approximate location. The geographic contextualization was performed with Conditional Auto Regressive (CAR) model over disaggregated map of Brazilian microregions. Results: Macrosomia overall prevalence was 5.4% starting with 6.0% in 2000 and finishing with 5.1% in 2004. The temporal trends of macrossomia percentage decreased during the study period, however, the cesarean percentage increased gradually over the birth weight stratus. The reminded studied variables, post-term delivery percentage, adolescent pregnancy, less than a full elementary education, married status, skim color and infrequent pre-natal care visits shown annual reduction over the birth weight stratus. SINASC 2004 spatial analysis of 558 Brazilian micro regions displayed macrosomia Moran’s I percentage of 0.40. Clusters of high percentage macrosomia micro-regions related to high percentage neighbors were identified in the northnortheast regions of the country, although clusters with low percentage were located in the south-southeast regions. The final regression model showed spatial dependence of macrosomia percentage maintaining cesarean and education variables in the model. The spatial error model was indicated to test the spatial autocorrelation in the terms of error in the final model using the classical specification strategy. Conclusion: The Brazilian macrosomia temporal trend is decreasing accompanied by favorable tendencies in nearly all maternal-infant health indicators, but an increase of 10% in the cesarean percentage and of 6% in microsomia was observed during the study period. Geographic macrosomia clusters with spatial dependence were characterized in the Brazilian micro regions with percentages of cesarean and less than a full elementary education significantly affecting this spatial relationship.