Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Forecasting the Cost to Firms of Climate Policy using Prediction Markets and Lobbying Records

Forecasting the cost of proposed policies may be difficult when prior experience is limited. This paper develops a novel forecasting method that combines prediction market prices with stock returns to estimate the expected cost to firms of the WaxmanMarkey climate policy bill. I find Waxman-Markey would have reduced the value of listed firms by $150 billion with greater losses for carbon intensive sectors. A regression discontinuity design finds sectors entitled to free allowances under the bill experienced larger gains. Lobbying records are used to estimate a political influence function for listed firms and to partially identify costs for unlisted firms. ∗Princeton University and University of California, Santa Barbara, email: kmeng@princeton.edu. I thank Ethan Kaplan, Wolfram Schlenker, and in particular Bernard Salanié for their guidance. This paper has benefited from critical suggestions from Joe Aldy, Doug Almond, Scott Barrett, Linda Bui, Olivier Deschênes, Ray Fisman, Olle Folke, Larry Goulder, Michael Greenstone, Rema Hanna, Geoff Heal, Solomon Hsiang, Nat Keohane, Wojciech Kopczuk, Gary Libecap, Erich Muehlegger, Suresh Naidu, Matt Neidell, Tom Vogl, Gernot Wagner, Reed Walker, Marty Weitzman, and seminar participants at Columbia University, Environmental Defense Fund, Georgia Tech, Harvard Kennedy School, NBER EEE Summer Institute, Rutgers, UC Irvine, UC Santa Barbara, University of Connecticut, and University of Michigan. I am grateful to Richard Goettle, Jennifer Morris, and Sergey Paltsev for detailing CGE methodology and sharing output from the IGEM and EPPA models. All remaining errors are my own. Research support from the NSF GRFP. This version: February, 2014.
Risk of myocardial infarction after Ranibizumab 1 Association between Ranibizumab Injections and Risk of Acute Myocardial Infarction in Age-

29 Purpose: This study aimed to evaluate the risk of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) associated with 30 intravitreal ranibizumab in age-related macular degeneration (AMD). 31 Methods: This nationwide retrospective case-crossover study using data from the Korean National 32 Health Insurance Service database included patients diagnosed with exudative AMD using the 33 registration code for exudative AMD (V201) from 2009 to 2014. We identified all incident AMI cases 34 among these exudative AMD cases from inpatient claims and defined the index date as the date of 35 hospitalization. For each patient, we defined the case period as one to 60 days and four control 36 periods as 121 to 180, 181 to 240, 241 to 300, and 301 to 361 days, respectively, before the index 37 date. A prescription of ranibizumab was searched for during the case and control periods. We 38 calculated the adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs) using a conditional 39 logistic regression model. 40 Results: From a cohort of patients with exudative AMD (n = 41,860), a total of 181 AMI patients with 41 exudative AMD were included. Among all the patients, 11.05% were treated during the two months 42 preceding the index date as compared with 8.29% to 9.39% treated during control periods. The 43 adjusted OR of AMI associated with intravitreal ranibizumab during the preceding two months was 44 1.22 (95% CI: 0.673–2.213; p=0.5124). Analyses based on case periods of 15 days and one month 45 yielded similar results. 46 Conclusion: Intravitreal ranibizumab injection does not appear to increase the risk of hospitalization 47 for AMI within 60 days in exudative AMD patients. 48 49
Establishment of the technological factors contributing to the sustainability of the Farmers Field School (FFS) in Busia County, Western Kenya: A Case of Farmers Field Schools in Busia County

Farmers Field Schools have been in operation as an alternative Agricultural extension approach from South East Asia, Philippines under Integrated Pest Management (IPM) from 1989. This study was on Examination of the differences between staff run and farmer run Farmers Field School on attainment of sustainability in Busia County in Western Kenya region. Kenya is among the over 90 countries in the world that have implemented Farmers’ Field School as an agricultural extension approach from its introduction. The problem addressed by this study was that of the 305 Field Schools funded within the study area, they remain unsustainable after the learning cycle. The objective of the study was to establish the technological factors contributing to the sustainability of Farmers’ Field Schools (FFS) in Busia County. The literature review revealed that in other nations, many such funded schools don’t break up after the end of the learning cycle. Multi-stage random sampling method was used to select field schools at each sub County, while purposive sampling was used to select key informants from program managers and FFS facilitators. Primary data was collected using pre-tested structured questionnaires administered to the 200 selected field schools, face-to-face interview with key informants FFS facilitators, program managers and focus group discussions with the field school’s network that is the apex body representing all the field schools was done. Secondary data including content analysis were obtained from publications, journals newspapers and internet access. The hypotheses were tested at 5% level of significance. The data analyzed by statistical package for social science (SPSS) version 20 were presented in tables, chi-square, frequency tables, percentages and pie chart. The following technological factors were identified as the ones contributing to the FFS sustainability: mechanization, conservation agriculture and farm inputs use. The findings revealed that FFS in Busia County could easily attain sustainability if they adapt to use of appropriate mechanization, employ conservation agriculture and internalize in the use of improved agricultural inputs. This will lead to sustained production that will lead to food and nutritional security and hence poverty reduction.
Key for More Rural Physicians: Rural Medical Tracks and Students with Rural Background Results of a Systematic Literature Review

University of Applied Sciences, Hochschule Fulda Peer-reviewed article eingereicht: 29.06. 2018, akzeptiert: 02.09. 2018, DOI 10.3238/zfa.2019. 0080–0086 Hintergrund: Die Aufrechterhaltung einer flächendeckenden ärztlichen Versorgung auf dem Land stellt auch das deutsche Gesundheitswesen vor große Herausforderungen. Neben Versorgungssteuerung, finanziellen Anreizen und anderen Steuerungsmaßnahmen sollen landärztliche Elemente im Medizinstudium das Angebot verbessern. Methoden: Der Artikel beruht auf einer systematischen Literaturrecherche in relevanten medizinischen Datenbanken zu messbaren Auswirkungen landarztorientierter Ausbildungsinhalte im Medizinstudium auf die anschließende ärztliche Tätigkeit im ländlichen Raum. Ergebnisse: Die Suche identifizierte insgesamt 38 Studien mit recht heterogenen Interventionen, Endpunkten und Ergebnissen. Mehrheitlich handelte es sich um Querschnittsund kontrollierte Studien (jeweils 39,5 %); hinzu kamen fünf Längsschnittstudien, zwei Mixed-methodsStudien und eine quasi-experimentelle Studie. Insgesamt zeigten sich überwiegend positive, aber eher schwache Korrelationen zwischen ländlichen Praktika bzw. Einsätzen im Medizinstudium und einer späteren ärztlichen Tätigkeit auf dem Land. Den größten Effekt hatten Landarzttracks bei Studierenden mit ländlichem Hintergrund. Das Review bestätigte in diesem Zusammenhang, dass ländliche Sozialisation den stärksten Prädiktor für die Aufnahme einer landärztlichen Tätigkeit darstellt. Schlussfolgerungen: Zur Verbesserung der medizinischen Versorgung auf dem Land tragen landärztliche Elemente im Curriculum des Medizinstudiums in geringem bis mäßigem Umfang bei. Sie können allenfalls in Verbindung mit anderen Maßnahmen die Landarztquote messbar erhöhen und sind vor allem bei Studierenden wirksam, die auf dem Land aufgewachsen sind.
Régularité de frontières libres et de formes optimales

Tous les problèmes à frontière libre ne sont pas de nature variationnelle, mais beaucoup le sont, en particulier ceux issus de l’étude des formes optimales. L’analyse de leur régularité emprunte d’ailleurs beaucoup aux méthodes spécifiques aux frontières libres auxquelles s’ajoutent des informations issues de l’optimalité. Le but de ce mini-cours est de décrire des méthodes et des résultats assez typiques dans ce contexte. Rappelons que l’existence de formes optimales est souvent établie par des arguments topologiques (compacité/semi-continuité) dans des espaces fonctionnels adéquats. La plupart du temps, ces espaces fonctionnels sont très vastes pour justement assurer l’existence d’optima. En conséquence, les formes optimales trouvées arrivent avec extrêmement peu de régularité. Ce sont par exemple tout juste des ensembles ouverts de R, voire même des quasi-ouverts -voir plus loinou même des ensembles seulement mesurables. Et pourtant, dans beaucoup de situations, on s’attend à ce qu’elles soient régulières, ceci pouvant aller jusqu’à être des ouverts à bord C∞ ou même analytique.
Chemical Hazardous S i tes and Res ident ia l Pr i ces : Determinants of Impact

Neighborhood dangers lower residential values, but what hazards and by how much? Does Internet disclosure make a difference? Would hazardous site categorization differing from Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) definitions better explain the impact of chemical hazardous sites on house prices? I investigate public disclosure and labeling of chemical hazardous sites and the impact they have on nearby housing prices. The United States Congress responded to the deadly Union Carbide pesticide plant accident in Bhopal, India (and other similar disasters) by enacting Title III of the Superfund Amendment Reauthorization Act of 1986, which is also known as the Emergency Planning and Community Right-to-Know Act (EPCRA). To protect Americans, EPCRA mandates every public or private facility in the U.S. that routinely has a ‘‘threshold quantity’’ of any of 600 acutely hazardous chemicals to file Emergency and Hazardous Chemical Inventory (Tier One and Tier Two) forms containing the name, amount, and location of such chemicals with federal, state, and local emergency planners and responders. As expected, EPCRA requires reporting by most industrial facilities and waste treatment plants. But most municipal swimming pools, retail cleaners, auto-repair shops, traditional printers, and even some gas stations have to report, too. Far too often slow leaks and industrial accidents occur that endanger entire neighborhoods. Many factors, including gut feelings about neighborhood risk, figure into the final price a potential buyer is willing to pay for a home, and information for subjective
Self-Perceived Readiness of Haitian Agricultural University Students to enter the Workforce: A Call for Curriculum Reform

The country of Haiti has faced chronic food insecurity for decades. Increasing domestic food production has been identified as a key part of the solution, but this requires building human capacity, especially related to agricultural extension and research. Haiti’s agricultural universities can be key players in this process. The purpose of this study was to explore the self-perceived readiness of Haitian agricultural university students to enter the workforce. Results revealed students had a wide variety of career aspirations and appreciated the breadth of the agronomy engineer degree. Students also expressed favorable opinions about their preparedness for the job market but felt pessimistic about finding a job. Students valued the importance of research and felt prepared to lead a research project. Finally, students thought all 17 Global Forum for Rural Advisory Services (GFRAS) New Extensionist competency areas were important. Recommendations for additional research and practice are provided. Keywords:Haiti, agriculture, higher education, research, extension
A SURVEY TO DETERMINE THE CONSERVATION STATUS OF SIAMESE CROCODILES IN KAENG KRACHAN NATIONAL PARK , THAILAND

—The Siamese Crocodile (Crocodylus siamensis) is one of the most endangered crocodilians in the world, and wild populations throughout Southeast Asia have precipitously declined over the last 50 years. Although initially feared extinct in Thailand, surveys in 2001 located a remnant population of C. siamensis in Kaeng Krachan National Park (KKNP), an extensive (2,915 km) protected area along the Thai-Myanmar border. Our objectives were to assess the conservation status of C. siamensis populations within the park, determine if reproduction is occurring, and develop conservation recommendations based on these findings. We used a combination of nocturnal spotlight counts, track and sign surveys, and village interviews to census crocodile populations in KKNP from 2009–2011. Interview data suggest crocodiles occasionally enter Kaeng Krachan Reservoir, although we observed none during spotlight counts. No evidence of crocodiles was found on the Mae Pradone River. We recorded 10 detections of crocodile sign (tracks and scat) along the Petchburi River, although overall detection rates were low (< 0.30/km). We found three nests along the Petchburi River from 2009–2011. Differences in mean egg width among clutches suggest one to three females nested. Clutches were considerably larger than those reported from other wild populations, but contained only non-viable eggs, possibly due to an insufficient number (or complete absence) of males in the Petchburi River. Collectively our survey data suggest at least four, and perhaps as many as six non-hatchling C. siamensis inhabit KKNP. The viability of this small population is doubtful and without direct conservation action, extinction appears inevitable. To avoid this fate, the existing population should be augmented using crocodiles obtained from commercial farms in Thailand.
La granulomatose septique chronique. Aspects cliniques et thérapeutiques.

: Chronic granulomatous disease of childhood is characterized clinically by the occurrence of severe and recurrent bacterial and fungal infections. The underlying biologic anomaly is defective microbicidal capacity of phagocytic cells with an abnormal oxidative response during phagocytosis. In most instances, inheritance is recessive and X-linked. Purulent adenitis and skin infections are the most common manifestations, but the overwhelming majority of deaths are caused by pulmonary aspergillosis, abscesses of the liver, and Salmonella infections. The most frequently recovered microorganisms include staphylococci, Aspergillus, Salmonellae, and Gram-negative rods. Bacterial infections seem to be considerably less frequent in patients under long-term prophylactic treatment with the trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole combination. However, no oral antifungal agent is as yet available for the prevention of pulmonary aspergillosis, as ketoconazole has proved ineffective.
The Quadratic Specht Triangle

We propose a class of 12 degrees of freedom triangular plate bending elements with quadratic rate of convergence. They may be viewed as the second order Specht triangle, while the Specht triangle is one of the best first order plate bending element. The convergence result is proved under minimal smoothness assumption on the solution. Numerical results for both the smooth solution and nonsmmoth solution confirm the theoretical prediction. Mathematics subject classification: 65N38, 65N30.
Proton number fluctuations in $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 2.4 GeV Au+Au collisions studied with HADES

We present an analysis of proton number fluctuations in $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$ = 2.4 GeV Au+Au collisions measured with the High-Acceptance DiElectron Spectrometer (HADES) at GSI. With the help of extensive detector simulations done with IQMD transport model events including nuclear clusters, various nuisance effects influencing the observed proton cumulants have been investigated. Acceptance and efficiency corrections have been applied as a function of fine grained rapidity and transverse momentum bins, as well as considering local track density dependencies. Next, the effects of volume changes within particular centrality selections have been considered and beyond-leading-order corrections have been applied to the data. The efficiency and volume corrected proton number moments and cumulants Kn of orders n = 1, . , 4 have been obtained as a function of centrality and phase-space bin, as well as the corresponding correlators C_n . We find that the observed correlators show a power-law scaling with the mean number of protons, i.e. $C_n \propto ^n$, indicative of mostly long-range multi-particle correlations in momentum space. We also present a comparison of our results with Au+Au collision data obtained at RHIC at similar centralities, but higher $\sqrt{s_{NN}}$.
Knowledge and simplicial complexes

Simplicial complexes are a versatile and convenient paradigm on which to build all the tools and techniques of the logic of knowledge, on the assumption that initial epistemic models can be described in a distributed fashion. Thus, we can define: knowledge, belief, bisimulation, the group notions of mutual, distributed and common knowledge, and also dynamics in the shape of simplicial action models. We give a survey on how to interpret all such notions on simplicial complexes, building upon the foundations laid in prior work by Goubault and others.
Bayesian Inference of Dense Matter Equation of State within Relativistic Mean Field Models Using Astrophysical Measurements

We present a Bayesian analysis to constrain the equation of state of dense nucleonic matter by exploiting the available data from symmetric nuclear matter at saturation, observations of compact X-ray sources, and the gravitational wave event GW170817. For the first time, such an analysis is performed by using a class of models, the relativistic mean field models, that allow one to consistently construct an equation of state in a wide range of densities, isospin asymmetries, and temperatures. The selected class of models contains five nuclear physics empirical parameters at saturation for which we construct the joint posterior distributions. By exploring different types of priors, we find that the equations of state with the largest evidence are the ones featuring a strong reduction of the effective mass of the nucleons in dense matter, which can be interpreted as an indication of a phase transition to a chiral symmetry restored phase. Those equations of state, in turn, predict R1.4 ∼ 12 km. Finally, we present a preliminary investigation of the effect of including Λ hyperons, showing that they appear in stars more massive than about 1.6 M⊙ and lead to radii larger than about R1.4 ∼ 14 km. Within the model explored here, the formation of such particles provides poor agreement with the constraints from GW170817.
I-SPEC: An End-to-End Framework for Learning Transportable, Shift-Stable Models

Shifts in environment between development and deployment cause classical supervised learning to produce models that fail to generalize well to new target distributions. Recently, many solutions which find invariant predictive distributions have been developed. Among these, graph-based approaches do not require data from the target environment and can capture more stable information than alternative methods which find stable feature sets. However, these approaches assume that the data generating process is known in the form of a full causal graph, which is generally not the case. In this paper, we propose I-SPEC, an end-to-end framework that addresses this shortcoming by using data to learn a partial ancestral graph (PAG). Using the PAG we develop an algorithm that determines an interventional distribution that is stable to the declared shifts; this subsumes existing approaches which find stable feature sets that are less accurate. We apply I-SPEC to a mortality prediction problem to show it can learn a model that is robust to shifts without needing upfront knowledge of the full causal DAG.
Bimodal Distribution Removal and Genetic Algorithm in Neural Network for Breast Cancer Diagnosis

Diagnosis of breast cancer has been well studied in the past. Multiple linear programming models have been devised to approximate the relationship between cell features and tumour malignancy. However, these models are less capable in handling non-linear correlations. Neural networks instead are powerful in processing complex non-linear correlations. It is thus certainly beneficial to approach this cancer diagnosis problem with a model based on neural network. Particularly, introducing bias to neural network training process is deemed as an important means to increase training efficiency. Out of a number of popular proposed methods for introducing artificial bias, Bimodal Distribution Removal (BDR) presents ideal efficiency improvement results and fair simplicity in implementation. However, this paper examines the effectiveness of BDR against the target cancer diagnosis classification problem and shows that BDR process in fact negatively impacts classification performance. In addition, this paper also explores genetic algorithm as an efficient tool for feature selection and produced significantly better results comparing to baseline model that without any feature selection in place
Decision Triggered Data Transmission and Collection in Industrial Internet of Things

We propose a decision triggered data transmission and collection (DTDTC) protocol for condition monitoring and anomaly detection in the industrial Internet of things (IIoT). In the IIoT, the collection, processing, encoding, and transmission of the sensor readings are usually not for the reconstruction of the original data but for decision making at the fusion center. By moving the decision making process to the local end devices, the amount of data transmission can be significantly reduced, especially when normal signals with positive decisions dominate in the whole life cycle and the fusion center is only interested in collecting the abnormal data. The proposed concept combines compressive sensing, machine learning, data transmission, and joint decision making. The sensor readings are encoded and transmitted to the fusion center only when abnormal signals with negative decisions are detected. All the abnormal signals from the end devices are gathered at the fusion center for a joint decision with feedback messages forwarded to the local actuators. The advantage of such an approach lies in that it can significantly reduce the volume of data to be transmitted through wireless links. Moreover, the introduction of compressive sensing can further reduce the dimension of data tremendously. An exemplary case, i.e., diesel engine condition monitoring, is provided to validate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed scheme compared to the conventional ones.
Instabilities in an Optical Black‐Hole Laser

The Hamiltonian of optical fields in a nonlinear dispersive fiber is studied. Quantum field fluctuations are spontaneously created close to an optical event horizon through the analog Hawking effect. The simplest model is considered for an optical black‐hole laser, where the Hawking radiation is produced and amplified inside a cavity formed by two horizons: a black hole and a white hole. It is found that resonant Hawking radiation originates from a discrete set of instabilities and tunnels out of the horizons. Finally, the numerical results are compared with the resonance and instability conditions and a phenomenological model is developed to give a clear physical picture.