The Potential Benefits of Autonomous Emergency Braking Systems in Australia

Monash University Accident Research Centre conducted an evaluation of the potential benefits of AEB in light and heavy vehicles in Australia. Crash and crash injury benefits were modelled on police reported crash data on crashes occurring in Australia between 2013-2016 inclusive. The classification of sensitive crashes, those potentially mitigated by AEB, was based on four existing real world evaluations of AEB and applied to crashes occurring in Australia. Crashes were considered as narrowly sensitive, broadly sensitive and pedestrian sensitive. Narrowly and broadly sensitive crashes involved car to vehicle incidents, with either a high degree of confidence (narrow sensitivity) or where there was some evidence (broadly sensitive) that AEB would alleviate or mitigate the crash. Pedestrian crashes included car to pedestrian and car to bicycle, unless otherwise stated. Up to 30% of light vehicle crashes were found to be sensitive to AEB. The addition of broad and pedestrian sensitivity increased this to 61% or 64% if only low speed zone crashes were considered (≤60km/h). When injuries from crashes, rather than crashes were considered, up to 70% of injuries sustained in car to vehicle crashes (considering narrow and broad crashes combined) and up to 5% of injuries from car to pedestrian crashes were sensitive to AEB. In low speed zones, 74% of car to vehicle trauma was sensitive to AEB and 7% of pedestrian crashes. Therefore, in low speed zones the fitment of AEB to light passenger vehicles has the potential to impact the outcome in 63% of all light vehicle crashes; and to potentially avoid or mitigate up to 81% of the trauma incidents occurring in light vehicle crashes. Analysis of police reported crash data from Australia using induced exposure methods showed strongly significant estimates of relative risk reductions associated with light vehicle models where some variants are fitted with AEB. In low speed zones, reductions in the risk of trauma from narrowly sensitive crashes were estimated at 28% for fatal and serious injuries and 18% for minor injuries. In broadly sensitive crashed vehicles, risk reductions were 12% for fatal and serious injuries and 13% for minor injuries; 18% and 32% respectively for pedestrian sensitive crashes. Therefore, if all light passenger vehicles in narrowly, broadly and pedestrian sensitive crashed vehicles in Australia were models where some variants had AEB fitted, these estimates of injury reduction in sensitive crashes would translate to injury reductions across all crashes of: 9.69% for fatalities and serious injuries and 8.80% of minor injuries. In low speed zones, these reductions constitute 12.36% of all light vehicle crash fatalities and serious injuries, and 13.41% of all light vehicle minor injuries. Fifteen percent of all heavy vehicle crashes were classified as sensitive to avoidance or mitigation with AEB. The effectiveness of AEB in heavy vehicles was determined from empirical literature as equivalent data to allow direct estimation of crash reductions associated with the technology from Australian heavy vehicle crash data was not available. Crash reductions in sensitive crashes associated with heavy vehicle AEB fitment estimated from existing international literature were