Fertility after Repartnering in Russia : Pursuing the Two-Child Ideal in a Context of Increased Marital Complexity

Despite the growing prevalence and acceptability of second unions in developed countries, the consequences of these developments for fertility have not been adequately studied. We analyzed data from three waves (2004, 2007, and 2011) of the Russian Generation and Gender Survey to examine trends and determinants of births in second and subsequent unions, both marriages and cohabitations. Our findings reveal that the contribution of non-first unions to overall fertility has increased tenfold in the past half-century. Moreover, the completed fertility in case of repartnering is not less than the completed fertility of women, which were in the persistent unions. Even women, who gave the first birth outside the union, in case of repartnering had the same number of children as women who did not experience a separation. Thus, stepfamily formation allowed Russian women to reach the two-child ideal at the same measure that living continuously with the first partner. Introduction Rapid deinstitutionalization of lifetime marriage in developed countries in the second half of the 20 century has resulted in a situation where diverse forms of traditional and nontraditional unions have become widely acceptable. On the one hand, all developed countries have seen increased risks of dissolution of first unions; on the other hand, these risks have been partly compensated by increases in second and subsequent unions (e.g., Vikat et al., 1999; Buber I., Prskawetz A., 2000; Thomson et al. 2009). Demographic consequences of these fundamental social shifts in different socioeconomic and cultural contexts have not yet been well studied. In particular, the contribution of second unions to the overall fertility levels has not been adequately addressed, especially outside western settings. In this paper, we use rich recent longitudinal survey data from the Russian Federation to describe the distribution of births in non-first unions over time and to model the risks of such birth from the characteristics of unions and partners. In a broader sense, the paper makes a contribution to the debate on the persistence of the two-child ideal in contemporary Europe (Sobotka 2014) by examining how childbearing in non-first unions corresponds to or deviate from this ideal. Background As in other developed countries, second union formation after the dissolution of the first union has become increasingly common in Russia over the past decades. According to the data from the Russian Generation and Gender Survey (RusGGS), half of both men and women from dissolved first unions find a new partner within 3-5 years of the dissolution; within fifteen years of the dissolution, these shares reach 80% and 70% among men and women, respectively. The mean interval between the first and second unions has been diminishing since the end of WWII: for first unions that dissolved in the 1950-1960ss it was about five years, compared to no more than four years today (Zakharov 2009). As a result, the share of life spent in union has increased, which, as evidence from other European settings suggest, for women means an increase in fertility (Beaujouan and Solaz, 2008; Thomson et al. 2009). Our estimates from RusGGS data show that for women who had their first child in a first union, the probability of having a second child in a second union is not much different from that of having a second child in an intact first union. This is a radical departure from some twenty-thirty years ago, when a young divorced woman with a small child had much greater difficulty to remarry and when the probability of a second birth in non-first unions was very low. Moreover, judging by responses of RusGGS female participants, registered and nonregistered second unions are now equally common: thus among women whose first marriages dissolved in the first half of the 1990s, ten years after the end of those marriages, 30% were living in registered marriage while 31% in unregistered union. By comparison, for women who divorced in the 1970s and formed their subsequent unions mainly in the 1990s, the corresponding figures were 50% and 12%. In sum, in contemporary Russia, subsequent unions not only compensate for more than half of dissolved first unions but entry into a second union occurs earlier than before and during active reproductive age, thereby creating conditions for births in second unions. As a result, despite considerable decline in stability of unions and increased probability of dissolution, there is no substantial shortening of the period (average duration) of exposure to the risk of pregnancy and birth. Yet, because of the increased diversity of the institutional forms of second unions, such unions now account for a high percentage of “out-of-wedlock” birth. Research questions Building upon prior research on union reconfiguration and recomposition and childbearing in western settings (e.g., (Vikat et al., 1999; Vikat et al 2004; Buber I., Prskawetz A., 2000; Henz. and Thomson, 2005; Beaujouan and Solaz, 2008), our paper looks at births in second unions in the context of the Russian Federation. Specifically, we examine variations in the likelihood of a childbirth in a second union across different types of union – e.g., registered marriage, cohabitation without subsequent registration, and cohabitation without registration. We also examine the role of other factors, such as demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of both partners, characteristics of previous unions and number and age of children from previous unions. Data & Method We use data from three waves of a nationally representative panel survey, RusGGS, which was carried out in the Russian Federation in 2004, 2007, and 2011 as part of the multicountry Generations and Gender Program coordinated by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE 2014). More than 11,000 men and women 18 years old and older were interviewed in each wave; more than 7000 respondents were interviewed in all three waves. We start the analysis with descriptive statistics on the distribution of births by birth order across first and second unions and across key demographic and socioeconomic predictors. For the multivariate analysis, we use logistic regression and survival analysis techniques to test for the effects of covariates of interest on the probability of having a child in a second union. Preliminary results Table 1 presents the distribution of births that occurred in the 1950s, 1960s, 1970s, 1980s, 1990s, and in 2000-2009. Contribution of repeated marriages in the total number of births of all orders consistently increased. In the mid-20th centuries, less than 2% of all births were provided with non-first unions. In the first decade of the 21st century, re-unions gave life to every tenth firstborn, every fourth second birth and more than 40% of all third births. Table 2 presents the distribution of births across age cohorts by order of union and order of birth. As can be seen, the number of non-first births increases considerably among the youngest cohort. Yet, the table also illustrates the rapid increase in the share of second and third births in second unions. In all, the contribution of non-first unions to overall fertility has increased tenfold in the past half-century. Table 1. Contribution of first and second unions to the total number of first and higherorder births by birth orders in 1950-1959, 1960-1969, 1970-1979, 1980-1989, 1990-1999, 2000-2009 Union by order Year of childbirth 1950-1959 1960-1969 1970-1979 1980-1989 1990-1999 2000-2009