Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Combining forecasts

To improve forecasting accuracy, combine forecasts derived from methods that differ substantially and draw from different sources of information. When feasible, use five or more methods. Use formal procedures to combine forecasts: An equal-weights rule offers a reasonable starting point, and a trimmed mean is desirable if you combine forecasts resulting from five or more methods. Use different weights if you have good domain knowledge or information on which method should be most accurate. Combining forecasts is especially useful when you are uncertain about the situation, uncertain about which method is most accurate, and when you want to avoid large errors. Compared with errors of the typical individual forecast, combining reduces errors. In 30 empirical comparisons, the reduction in ex ante errors for equally weighted combined forecasts averaged about 12.5% and ranged from 3 to 24 percent. Under ideal conditions, combined forecasts were sometimes more accurate than their most accurate components.
Genetic identification of eleven aquatic bacteria using the 16S rDNA gene

Bacteria help maintain ecological balance by participating in the carbon, oxygen, and/or nitrogen cycles. These cycles are important for the organism’s survival, that’s why their identification is fundamental in order to determine how they function and interact in an ecosystem. In this study, eleven previously isolated bacteria from the upstate New York waterbodies (the Oswego River, Lake Ontario, and Lake Neatahwanta) were identified by sequencing a fragment of the 16S rDNA gene from each bacteria. Identification was supported by metabolic tests. The sequences were compared in the nucleotide database in GenBank (GenBank, 2009) and then aligned to construct a phylogenetic tree. The eleven bacteria were grouped into eight genera: Acinetobacter, Aeromonas, Planococcus, Enterobacter, Exiguobacterium, Pseudomonas, Plesiomonas, and Staphylococcus. The metabolic tests better supported the identification for the samples with longer sequences than samples with shorter sequences, which shows the importance of getting longer sequences to better identify bacteria. The identified genera of the isolated bacteria were found to occur in aquatic environments and Plesiomona shigelloides, one of the samples, is usually found in fish and other aquatic animals. Genetic identification of bacteria 3
Repricing Stock Options: Current Trends and Dangers

Due to recent drops in the stock market, many U.S. publicly traded companies are considering repricing stock options for their executives. Companies must balance the need to attract and retain executives with shareholder interests, since repricings effectively separate the interests of management and the interest of shareholders. Studies have shown little support for the traditional justifications for rich executive stock awards, such as a weak correlation between executive ownership and stock performance. Since stock market conditions have changed, the opportunity arises to re-structure executive compensation in line with expected stock market returns and company needs.
The Role and Current Status of IFRS in the Completion of National GAAP - Evidence from France

In France, the European Accounting directive has been implemented via a decree and a ministerial order, issued without any public consultation and which led to an amendment of the Commercial Code and three regulations released by the ANC, the French standard-setter. Our analysis of those texts reveals that none of them refer to IFRS. We did not find evidence of any reference to IFRS from the AMF, the French market regulator, in its decisions on the right application of French GAAP by listed companies. Hence, IFRS seem to have played a minor role in the recent modification of French regulations resulting from the implementation of the European accounting directive.
With Great Dispersion Comes Greater Resilience: Efficient Poisoning Attacks and Defenses for Linear Regression Models

With the rise of third parties in the machine learning pipeline, the service provider in “Machine Learning as a Service” (MLaaS), or external data contributors in online learning, or the retraining of existing models, the need to ensure the security of the resulting machine learning models has become an increasingly important topic. The security community has demonstrated that without transparency of the data and the resulting model, there exist many potential security risks, with new risks constantly being discovered. In this paper, we focus on one of these security risks – poisoning attacks. Specifically, we analyze how attackers may interfere with the results of regression learning by poisoning the training datasets. To this end, we analyze and develop a new poisoning attack algorithm. Our attack, termed Nopt, in contrast with previous poisoning attack algorithms, can produce larger errors with the same proportion of poisoning data-points. Furthermore, we also significantly improve the state-of-the-art defense algorithm, termed TRIM, proposed by Jagielsk et al. (IEEE S&P 2018), by incorporating the concept of probability estimation of clean data-points into the algorithm. Our new defense algorithm, termed Proda, demonstrates an increased effectiveness in reducing errors arising from the poisoning dataset through optimizing ensemble models. We highlight that the time complexity of TRIM had not been estimated; however, we deduce from their work that TRIM can take exponential time complexity in the worst-case scenario, in excess of Proda’s logarithmic time. The performance of both our proposed attack and defense algorithms is extensively evaluated on four real-world datasets of housing prices, loans, health care, and bike sharing services. We hope that our work will inspire future research to develop more robust learning algorithms immune to poisoning attacks.
International Migration, Transfer of Norms and Home Country Fertility (Migration internationale, transfert des normes, et fécondité dans le pays d'origine)

This paper examines the relationship between international migration and source country fertility. The impact of international migration on source country fertility may have a number of causes, including a transfer of destination countries' fertility norms. We provide a rigorous test of the diffusion of fertility norms using highly detailed original data on migration. Our results provide evidence of a significant transfer of destination countries' fertility norms from migrants to their country of origin: a 1% decrease (increase) in the fertility norm to which migrants are exposed reduces (raises) home country fertility by about 0.3%. Cet article étudie la relation entre la migration internationale et la fécondité dans les pays d'origine des migrants. L'impact de la migration internationale sur la fécondité peut avoir plusieurs causes, y compris un transfert des normes de fécondité dans les pays de destination. On fournit un test rigoureux de la diffusion des normes de fécondité à l'aide de données originales détaillées sur la migration. Les résultats révèlent un transfert significatif des normes de fécondité des pays de destination vers les pays d'origine par le biais de la migration : un déclin de 1% dans la norme de fécondité à laquelle les migrants sont exposés réduit la fécondité dans le pays d'origine d'environ 0.3%.
An Entropy-based Proof of Threshold Saturation for Nonbinary SC-LDPC Ensembles on the BEC

In this paper we are concerned with the asymptotic analysis of nonbinary spatially-coupled low-density parity-check (SC-LDPC) ensembles defined over GL$\left(2^{m}\right)$ (the general linear group of degree $m$ over GF$\left(2\right)$). Our purpose is to prove threshold saturation when the transmission takes place on the binary erasure channel (BEC). To this end, we establish the duality rule for entropy for nonbinary variable-node (VN) and check-node (CN) convolutional operators to accommodate the nonbinary density evolution (DE) analysis. Based on this, we construct the explicit forms of the potential functions for uncoupled and coupled DE recursions. In addition, we show that these functions exhibit similar monotonicity properties as those for binary LDPC and SC-LDPC ensembles over general binary memoryless symmetric (BMS) channels. This leads to the threshold saturation theorem and its converse for nonbinary SC-LDPC ensembles on the BEC, following the proof technique developed by S. Kumar et al.
BEV-Seg: Bird's Eye View Semantic Segmentation Using Geometry and Semantic Point Cloud

Bird's-eye-view (BEV) is a powerful and widely adopted representation for road scenes that captures surrounding objects and their spatial locations, along with overall context in the scene. In this work, we focus on bird's eye semantic segmentation, a task that predicts pixel-wise semantic segmentation in BEV from side RGB images. This task is made possible by simulators such as Carla, which allow for cheap data collection, arbitrary camera placements, and supervision in ways otherwise not possible in the real world. There are two main challenges to this task: the view transformation from side view to bird's eye view, as well as transfer learning to unseen domains. Existing work transforms between views through fully connected layers and transfer learns via GANs. This suffers from a lack of depth reasoning and performance degradation across domains. Our novel 2-staged perception pipeline explicitly predicts pixel depths and combines them with pixel semantics in an efficient manner, allowing the model to leverage depth information to infer objects' spatial locations in the BEV. In addition, we transfer learning by abstracting high-level geometric features and predicting an intermediate representation that is common across different domains. We publish a new dataset called BEVSEG-Carla and show that our approach improves state-of-the-art by 24% mIoU and performs well when transferred to a new domain.
Effects of Salinity and Drought on Morphological and Chemical traits of Aloe vera plant

Drought and salt stress which limit the plants growth are becoming a serious problem in the world. Aloe vera is one of the most valuable medicine plants in world. It requires limited irrigation depending on the capacity of the soil to retain humidity. Sinc e Aloe is a CAM species it could naturally be adapted to conditions of dryness and high temperatures. In this research the conjugation effect of salinity treatments and irrigation levels on Aloe plant was studied. In this experiment used various levels of salinity including the control, 4, 8, and 12 (ds/m), also the irrigation treatments were FC, 40%, 60%, and 80% depletion of available water during two year studies. Results revealed that the salinity stress and water deficit affected the plant height, number of leaves, leaf length, leaf thickness, aerial fresh yield, leaf fresh weight and gel weight. Salinity affected most of growing traits in comparison to control treatment; however increasing salt concentrations did not lead to a significant difference i n vegetative indices between 4 and 8 ds/m applications. Leaf fresh weight and gel weight per leaf did not show any significant differences in 12 ds/m with 8 ds/m treatment. The 60% depletion of available water was appropriated for providing the adequate h eight, leaves number and leaf diameter. Also 40% water depletion suggested for using water and high obtaining the leaf weight, yield and leaf gel. Therefore Aloe is very resistant to severe saline and drought conditions. Chemical results of the plant indicated that the increase of salinity and drought declined the total chlorophyll, but enhanced the solution carbohydrate, proline and total soluble solid. Increasing carbohydrate concentration and proline content without decreasing yield showed that this plant was resistance to high salinity and drought.
Innis Lecture: Universal Early Childhood Interventions: What is the Evidence Base? (Interventions Universelles Auprès De La Petite Enfance: Quels Résultats Sur Lesquels Se Fonder?)

Universality is a hallmark of Canadian social policy for very young children. The evidence base for these policies is small, non‐experimental, and offers mixed results. In contrast, the evidence base for targeted early childhood interventions is largely experimental and offers strong guidance. Policy makers and advocates often cite the research on targeted programs in support of universal programs, although this is problematic for a number of reasons. Universal programs require a better understanding of the developmental trajectories of more advantaged children. Evidence from the NLSCY suggests there are some potentially important differences in the association of early and later childhood developmental outcomes by family economic resources. (L’universalité est une caractéristique de la politique sociale canadienne pour la petite enfance. Les résultats sur lesquels on peut construire ces politiques sont minces et non‐expérimentaux, et pas toujours cohérents. D’autre part, les résultats pour les interventions ciblées sont largement expérimentaux et fournissent des directions claires. Les définisseurs de politiques ainsi que leurs supporteurs citent souvent les résultats de recherches sur les programmes ciblés pour articuler leur support pour des programmes universels, même si c’est problématique pour diverses raisons. Les programmes universels réclament une meilleure compréhension des trajectoires de développement des enfants plus avantagés. Les résultats de l’Enquête longitudinale nationale sur les enfants et les jeunes suggèrent qu’il y a des différences potentiellement importantes dans le développement des enfants de familles qui ont des ressources économiques différentes.)
Enrollment in Community Based Health Insurance Schemes in Rural Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, India

This paper assesses insurance uptake in three community based health insurance (CBHI) schemes located in rural parts of two of India’s poorest states and offered through women’s self-help groups (SHGs). We examine what drives uptake, the degree of inclusive practices of the schemes, and the influence of health status on enrollment. The most important finding is that a household’s socio-economic status does not appear to substantially inhibit uptake. In some cases Scheduled Caste/Scheduled Tribe (SC/ST) households are more likely to enroll. Second, households with greater financial liabilities find insurance more attractive. Third, access to the national hospital insurance scheme (RSBY) does not dampen CBHI uptake, suggesting that the potential for greater development of insurance markets and products beyond existing ones would respond to a need. Fourth, recent episodes of illness and self-assessed health status do not influence uptake. Fifth, insurance coverage is prioritized within households, with the household head, the spouse of the household head and both male and female children of the household head, more likely to be insured as compared to other relatives. Sixth, offering insurance through women’s SHGs appears to mitigate concerns about the inclusiveness and sustainability of CBHI schemes. Given the pan-Indian spread of SHGs, offering insurance through such groups offers the potential to scale-up CBHI.
Smart Contracts on the Blockchain – A Bibliometric Analysis and Review

Abstract Smart contracts are decentrally anchored scripts on blockchains or similar infrastructures that allow the transparent execution of predefined processes. Using smart contracts, business logic can be automated and assets such as money become programmable, which opens up previously inaccessible application potential. To date, smart contracts control billions in value. This paper analyzes 468 articles on the topic of smart contracts and their 20,188 references, providing a summary and analysis of the current state of research on smart contracts and identifying intellectual structures and emerging trends. Using exploratory factor analysis for co-citation analysis, six different strands of research are identified that concern technical, social, economic and legal disciplines: I) technical foundations, development and open questions of blockchain networks, II) blockchain and smart contracts for the Internet of Things, III) smart contract standardization, verification and security, IV) blockchain and smart contracts for the disruption of existing processes and industries, V) potentials and challenges of smart contracts, and VI) smart contracts and the law. The interrelations between these groups and individual high-impact publications are visualized using social network analysis. A structured overview of the main strands of research concerning smart contracts, their development over time, the relevance of smart contract platforms in research, and conceptual connections between publications and discourses is obtained. Based on the results, starting points for future research are derived, which offer researchers and practitioners a substantial basis for their work on smart contracts.
Effect of vacuum packaging on quality changes of refrigerated Jinga shrimp Metapenaeus affinis

Metapenaeus affinis is one of the economically valuable species of Persian Gulf and Oman Sea and is of high nutritional value. In this research chemical composition and spoilage indicators of vacuum packed shrimp muscle including total lipids (TL), moisture, total protein, total ash, peroxide value (PV), thiobarbituric acid (TBA), total volatile bases nitrogen (TVN), and pH during a period of 18 days were examined at a cold temperature. To carry out the experiment sampling was done in seven steps (0, 3, 6, 9, 12, 15, 18 days) and the results showed that the rate of PV index in the first day increased from 0.93 meq/kg to 2.09 meq/kg. TVN indicator increased from 10.02 mg/100 g muscle to 26.83 mg/100 g muscle in the 18 th day. Lipid and protein content significantly decreased during the period (P<0.05). Thiobarbituric acid (TBA) index increased from 0.59 mg MDA/kg to 1.53 mg MDA/kg in the 18 th day. In
Technological Advances that Led to Growth of Shrimp, Salmon, and Tilapia Farming

ABSTRACT Aquaculture has been the world's fastest growing food production sector with an annual growth rate of 8%. Total aquaculture supply increased dramatically from 0.7 mMT in 1950 to 90 mMT in 2012. Growth of the global seafood supply was made possible through adoption of new technologies that brought more control over aquaculture production processes. This review presents evidence of supply-side technological progress that spurred growth in shrimp, salmon, and tilapia production from 1981 to 2012. Greater availability of hatchery-raised post-larvae, better feed formulations, and a shift in preferred shrimp species from Penaeus monodon to Specific Pathogen Free (SPF) Litopenaeus vannamei appear to have been critical technological advances that triggered rapid growth of shrimp farming. Nutritionally balanced feed, use of automated labor-saving equipment, genetic selection programs, and development of vaccines triggered growth of Atlantic salmon production. Diffusion of Genetically Improved Farm Tilapia (GIFT) was a key technological development that fueled rapid growth of tilapia farming. Understanding the technological advances that led to growth of shrimp, salmon, and tilapia farming may provide insights for future growth of other aquaculture species.
Tritrophic Interactions Among Bt (Cry3Bb1) Corn, Aphid Prey, and the Predator Coleomegilla maculata (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae)

Abstract The ability of the transgenic corn rootworm resistant corn (Zea mays L.) hybrid, MON 863, to affect the predator Coleomegilla maculata DeGeer (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae) through the consumption of corn-fed aphid (Rhopalosiphum maidis, Homoptera: Aphididae) prey was examined in the laboratory. Aphid weight was used as an index of prey quality. Larvae of C. maculata were reared to pupation on aphids that had consumed transgenic or nontransgenic (susceptible) corn plants. Larval duration, survivorship to pupation, postmortem adult dry weight (taken at 30 d after eclosion), adult mobility, and fecundity were compared for C. maculata between treatments. Fitness parameters of C. maculata were similar between transgenic and susceptible treatments, despite a 33% reduction in the weight of aphid prey reared on MON 863. Using immunostrip tests, Cry3Bb1 was detectable in the leaves of MON 863 but not in the susceptible plant, aphids, or C. maculata that were fed aphids. We conclude that transgenic corn that expresses Cry3Bb1 does not inflict acute or chronic degradations in fitness on individual C. maculata through aphid prey, but these results do not necessarily apply to other natural enemies, herbivores, or insect-resistant corn hybrids.
Low Lymphocyte Count Is Associated With Radiotherapy Parameters and Affects the Outcomes of Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients

Purpose: Lymphocytes are central players in systemic anti-tumor immune responses. In this study, we aimed to identify the relationship between absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) nadir during definitive radiotherapy (RT) and survival outcomes in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC), as well as evaluate the effect of RT parameters on ALC during RT. Materials and methods: We retrospectively reviewed 189 patients with stage I-IVA ESCC, who were treated with definitive RT at a single institution between 2012 and 2015. ALC values were assessed before, weekly during RT, and 1 month after the end of RT. Kaplan–Meier and Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the relationship between ALC nadir during RT and patient outcomes. Predictors of low ALC nadir were assessed using univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Results: The median ALC before treatment was 1.73 × 103 cells/μL. Fifty-eight (58.2) percent of the patients exhibited low ALC nadir (≤ 0.38 × 103 cells/μL) during RT. A low ALC nadir during RT was significantly associated with poor OS, PFS, and LRFS. The planning target volume (PTV) was larger in patients with low ALC nadir compared with patients with high ALC nadir (418.5 vs. 347.7 cm3, P = 0.023). Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that tumor stage III-IVA (P = 0.002), low ALC before treatment (P = 0.028), large Log10(PTV) (P = 0.01), high heart V10 (P = 0.003), and high heart V20 (P = 0.028) were associated with low ALC nadir during RT. Conclusions: In ESCC patients who received definitive RT, a low ALC nadir during RT was associated with large PTVs, and it was an independent prognostic factor of outcomes.
The effect of different packaging materials on proteolysis, sensory scores and gross composition of tulum cheese

In this study, tulum cheese was manufactured using raw ewe’s milk and was ripened in goat’s skin and plastic bags. The effect of ripening materials (skin bag or plastic) on proteolysis was investigated during 120 days of ripening. In addition, sensory scores of the cheeses were assessed at the 90th and 120th days. The gross composition was also determined at the initial stage of ripening. The results showed that, some significant differences were noted between cheeses ripened in goat’s skin and plastic bags in terms of gross composition due to the porous structure of skin bag, which causes moisture loses during ripening. Significant differences were observed in proteolysis indices including water, 12% tricholoroacetic acid and 5% phosphotungstic acid-soluble nitrogen fractions among the cheese samples during ripening. Proteolysis levels were higher in tulum cheeses ripened in goat’s skin. Key words: Tulum cheese, packaging material, sensory analysis, ripening, proteolysis.