Uncertain lives: Insights into the role of job precariousness in union formation in Italy

1.IntroductionAlthough presented as the remedy for economic problems and unemployment since the 1990s, the diffusion of new forms of flexible and temporary work contracts has transformed labor market entry and exit conditions, leading to an increasing precariousness of employment careers. Growing uncertainty has become an intrinsic characteristic of contemporary 'globalized' societies, caused by deregulation, internationalization, and delocalization (e.g., Blossfeld and Hofmeister 2006; Blossfeld, Mills, and Bernardi 2006). From the beginning of the 1990s up to 2012, the share of temporary employment rose from 10% to 16% in the Euro area (Caroli and Godard 2013; OECD 2002). Today a growing number of people - the emerging class of 'precariat' (Standing 2011) - are faced with uncertainty, moving in and out of jobs that may give little meaning to their lives.Uncertainty has spread into the partnership and parenthood domains of young adults' lives as well (e.g., Blossfeld et al. 2005; Kreyenfeld, Andersson, and Pailhe 2012; Mills and Blossfeld 2013). Among other things, economic uncertainty may affect union formation practices. American research generally supports the view that poor economic prospects for men and women are associated with a delay in marriage, and may favor cohabitation. The European literature is more limited in this respect, although some examples can be found especially in the context of the comparative project proposed by Blossfeld and colleagues; Blossfeld et al. 2005). This paper contributes to the European literature on the topic by providing insights into the influence of job precariousness on the decision of women and men to enter either cohabitation or marriage in Italy. The Italian setting typifies a unique case study. In the country, unmarried cohabitation is far less common than elsewhere in Europe and does not yet represent an integral part of family life (Rosina and Fraboni 2004). The prolonged absence of the legal recognition of civil unions4 combined with familial and social pressure to marry further contribute to leaving little room for cohabitation (Vignoli and Salvini 2014). Nonetheless, contemporary Italy faces an increasing breakdown of marriage, the diversity of union patterns is growing, and a slow but continuous process of secularization is at play (Pirani and Vignoli 2016; Sansonetti 2009). Thus, the focus on the Italian setting is important for eliciting the role of economic uncertainty in driving union formation practices when a society is undergoing secularization and revolutionary family changes.This paper adopts a mixed-method approach. The qualitative analysis - conducted with focus group techniques - provides an in-depth understanding into the mechanisms of how job precariousness may affect individual perceptions and beliefs on union formation. Then, using quantitative analysis - conducted through event-history techniques - we test how strong these mechanisms are in the general population. We continue by presenting our theoretical considerations, describing the Italian context, and deriving our research hypotheses. This is followed by a presentation of the analytical strategy, and a description of results. A concluding discussion closes the paper.2. Employment uncertainty and union formation2.1Main perspectives.The link between employment uncertainty and family formation practices is multifaceted. At first glance, and in line with the globalization and labor market deregulation perspective (Blossfeld et al. 2005; Blossfeld and Hofmeister 2006; Blossfeld, Mills, and Bernardi 2006; Mills and Blossfeld 2013), it is relatively straightforward to suppose that marriage, a resource-intensive and long-term commitment, will be postponed when people face employment uncertainty. According to the uncertainty hypothesis developed by Oppenheimer (1988), especially men's unstable careers, as indicated by low-status jobs, non-employment, and irregular and temporary employment, embody uncertainty. …