Assessing Retention in Online Learning: An Administrative Perspective

As the growth of online programs continues to rapidly accelerate, concern over the retention of the online learner is increasing. Educational administrators at institutions offering online courses, those fully online or brick and mortars, are eager to promote student achievement. Retention is critically important, not just for student success, but also for the success of these institutions of higher education. Models for understanding student persistence in the face-to-face environment are well established, however, many of the variables in these constructs are not present in the online environment or they manifest in significantly different ways. With attrition rates higher than in face-to-face programs, the development of models to explain online retention is considered imperative. This study moves in that direction by exploring the relationship between student demographics and interactions, and retention at a large online university. Analysis of data, which included an n of 20,569, provides illustration of the importance of transfer credit and the consistency of activity in predicting continued enrollment. Introduction Student persistence or retention has been a documented issue in higher education in the United States since the late 1800s (Thelin, 2004). Formal research studies on the topic of retention began as early as 1926 (Braxton, 2000). Escalating in the 1970s, and persisting through the last few decades, academics such as Spady (1970), Astin (1993), Tinto (1975, 1993), Pascarella (1985), and Braxton, Hirschy, & McClendon (2004) published influential research on the topic of student retention. It has been difficult to obtain accurate data on why students leave an institution (Barefoot, 2000). Serious issues and challenges to student success in higher education were reported in the 1980s (Chickering & Gamson, 1987). During the 1980s and 1990s over 20 national study groups determined from research the need to put students first (Schroeder, 2003). In the 1990s questions were raised about national ranking of colleges and universities and what is considered important in looking at the quality of an institution of higher education (Marklein, 2005). A number of researchers have identified that the higher the high school grade point average (GPA) and the higher the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) or American College Testing (ACT) exam scores of a college student, the stronger the chance that the student will persist in college and graduate (Astin, 1993). In fact, institutions with the most rigorous admissions selectivity have exhibited the highest persistence or retention rates (Tinto, 1993). Conversely, institutions with the lowest selectivity criteria (open enrollment) generally have the lowest retention rates, and institutions with open enrollment admissions policies are considered the least selective. In these cases, students are required to submit proof of graduation from high school and are admitted with minimal GPA requirements and few, if any, SAT or ACT requirements. Researchers have also identified the importance of social integration in the student retention rates of colleges (Astin, 1993; Spady, 1970; Tinto, 1975). Tinto’s model of student persistence theorized that the greater the level of academic and social integration, the greater the student’s chances of persisting until graduation (Tinto, 1975). Research has been published about retention rates at many types of institutions including four-year and two-year colleges, commuter colleges and universities, public universities and private universities, research universities, historically Black colleges, and tribal colleges (Tinto, 1993). While much has been written about the retention at these common types of institutions, relatively little has been written about retention at the online institutions of higher learning that have developed since the early 1990s. For purposes of this study, the term “online” refers to accredited institutions of higher learning that utilize the Internet as the sole medium of instructional communication between professor and student with no presence of professor or student in a physical classroom at the same time. There are approximately 16 accredited online institutions headquartered in the United States and 11 of them are for-profits. There are another 19 accredited “blended” institutions whose online enrollments may exceed their on-ground enrollments (Boston, Jr., 2010). In 2008, online institutions primarily served adult learners (defined as students older than 24) with a market share approaching 40% of all adult learners in higher education and an estimated market share of traditional learners (age 18-24) of approximately 1.5% (Eduventures, 2008). Online institutions offer access to academic programs to any student who has access to the Internet and a computer. Online institutions are also convenient in that 1) a student is not required to attend a class held at a physical location that may or may not be close by to his place of work or his home; and 2) student participation is not restricted or confined by traditional class times and days. In most cases, online institutions offer their classes asynchronously meaning that the student and the instructor are not required to be present in the classroom at the same time (Sloan Consortium, 2009). For adult students who are mobile, who are not located near a traditional college campus, or whose work and family obligations restrict the discretionary time they can devote to educational pursuits, online programs are a very attractive option. With almost four million students enrolled in online courses in the United States alone, and a 12.9% growth rate in online enrollments, program growth is considered a priority at over 80% of major US institutions of higher education (Allen & Seaman, 2009). While compelling, this accelerated growth has raised significant questions concerning the quality of online instruction in terms of outcomes. One measure of outcomes is student learning and perceived efficacy. In their 2009 study, the U.S. Department of Education isolated 51 common factors across thousands of studies and concluded that, in general, online learning is more effective than face-to-face learning (U.S. Department of Education, 2009). However, despite this highly positive finding, the question of retention remains problematic for online programs, with several studies and anecdotal evidence indicating attrition rates for online courses frequently being much higher than for their campus-based counterpart (Bos & Shami, 2006; Diaz & Cartnal, 2006; Rovai, 2003; Willging & Johnson, 2004). In more recent work, Patterson and McFadden (2009) found dropout rates to be six to seven times higher in online programs. This study examined variables concerning the retention of students in a fully online undergraduate program at American Public University System. The purpose of the study was to determine which factors were most relevant in determining retention, with the intent of creating actionable policy measures. The Study and Its Context Setting American Military University (AMU), the predecessor of the American Public University System (APUS), accepted its first students in 1993. Originally, the institution offered a single Masters program in Military Studies via a modified correspondence format. In January 1996, the institution offered its first bachelor’s degree programs and in January 2000, offered its first associates’ degree. AMU began converting its curriculum from the correspondence format to online instruction in 1998. By the end of 2000, all of the courses in all degree programs at AMU were online. In 2002, American Military University changed its accreditation and corporate status to the American Public University System (APUS), encompassing two universities: American Military University and American Public University (APU). In late 2002, APUS applied for accreditation with the Higher Learning Commission of the North Central Association (NCA). Accreditation was granted in May 2006. Following NCA accreditation APUS grew rapidly with a 72.1% increase in new students between 2006 and 2007. However, within this exceptional growth rate student retention was problematic. In 2007, new students dropped out at a rate of 23.8% after taking their second course at APUS. Because of the open enrollment policy, the lack of physical restrictions limiting enrollment, and an adequate supply of qualified instructors, the number of returning undergraduate students has never exceeded the number of new students in any year in contrast to the ratio of new students to returning students at a traditional institution. With total students enrolled approaching 65,000 in late 2009, the need for developing an understanding of those factors influencing retention patterns was considered imperative. Academic Preparedness Tinto (1993) indicates the problems of attrition in higher education are not just about the numbers of attrition suggesting that these qualitative problems are connected to learning and development. The issue of academic preparedness, or lack thereof, for students is of great interest to researchers, policy makers, and higher education administrators alike. Researchers have documented that factors affecting college readiness are found in high concentration in middle school. Math and reading proficiency at grade level are predictors in academic preparedness for college. Lack of proficiency can indicate placement into developmental courses and being categorized by the institution as high risk for attrition during the first year of college (Cabrera, Nora, Terenzini, Pascarella, & Hagedorn, 2006; Kuh, 2007). Non-traditional Age Students Traditional age students, 18 to 24 years of age, have historically made up a large majority of the college student population. This trend has been changing over the past two decades (Participation in Education, n.d.). The adult student is now the dominant learn