Türkiye'de Planlı Kalkınma Döneminde İktisadi Büyüme ile Nüfus Artışı İlişkisinin Ekonometrik Analizi

Turkiye’de uygulanan nufus politikalari incelendiginde “1960 yili oncesi” ve “1960 yili sonrasi” olmak uzere iki doneme ayrildigi gorulmektedir. Bu ayrimin temelinde 1960’li yillardan itibaren hizli nufus artisinin iktisadi buyumenin onunde engel teskil ettiginin ileri surulmesi ve neticesinde nufus artis hizini yavaslatmaya yonelik politikalarin uygulanmasi yer almaktadir. Gunumuzde, 1960’li yillardan itibaren uygulanan bu nufus politikalari sonucunda Turkiye’de yasli nufusun payinda hizli bir artis ve dogumlarin azalmasi ile birlikte cocuk nufusun payinda hizli bir azalis gozlemlenmistir. Yasanan bu donusum sonucunda gelecek donemler acisindan nufusun yaslanmasi ve nufusun azalmasi gibi farkli sorunlarla karsi karsiya kalinmistir. Bu calismada, 1960’li yillardan itibaren nufus politikalarindaki degisikliginin temel nedeni olarak gosterilen iki degisken; kisi basina dusen Gayri Safi Yurtici Hasila (GSYIH) ile nufus artisi (N) arasindaki iliski Turkiye icin 1961-2012 doneminde yillik veriler kullanilarak analiz edilmistir. Bu amacla, Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS) duraganlik testi, gecikmesi dagitilmis otoregresif sinir testi yaklasimi ve Granger nedensellik testi kullanilmistir. Uygulanan analizler neticesinde, her iki serinin birinci mertebeden duragan oldugu ve aralarinda uzun donem iliskisinin bulunmadigi sonucuna ulasilmistir. Yapilan Granger nedensellik testi sonrasinda ise iki seri arasinda bir nedensellik iliskisi saptanmamistir. Anahtar Kelimeler: Iktisadi Buyume, Nufus Politikasi, Nufus Artisi, Esbutunlesme. JEL Kodu: C32; O21 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- An Econometric Analysis of the Relation Between Economic Growth and Population Growth for the Planned Development Period in Turkey ABSTRACT: The examination of population policies in Turkey depicts that there are two periods, pre-1960 period and post-1960 period, which can be used for a proper classification. This distinction mainly rests on claims about negative outcomes of rapid population growth on economic growth and the necessity of declaration of population growth in order to provide a stable economy. Today, we can observe the consequences of the post-1960 policies as a considerable increase in the share of elderly people and a significant decline in the share of children. This transition indicates that problems of an aging population and a decline in population will appear as unavoidable phenomena in Turkey. In this study, relation between Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita and Population Growth (N) which are accepted as the main rationale behind the changes of population policies has been analyzed using the data collected for years of 1961-2012 period in Turkey. Kwiatkowski–Phillips–Schmidt–Shin (KPSS) Tests, ARDL Bounds Test and Granger Causality Test have been used for this purpose. As a result of the analysis, it was concluded that each of them was first-order stationary series and there was no long-run relationship between them. It was found that there was no causal relationship between two series according to the Granger Causality Test. Keywords: Economic Growth, Population Policy, Population Growth, Cointegration. JEL Code: C32; O21