Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Online Prediction under Model Uncertainty Via Dynamic Model Averaging: Application to a Cold

We consider the problem of online prediction when it is uncertain what the best prediction model to use is. We develop a method called Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) in which a state space model for the parameters of each model is combined with a Markov chain model for the correct model. This allows the “correct” model to vary over time. The state space and Markov chain models are both specified in terms of forgetting, leading to a highly parsimonious representation. The method is applied to the problem of predicting the output strip thickness for a cold rolling mill, where the output is measured with a time delay. We found that when only a small number of physically motivated models were considered and one was clearly best, the method quickly converged to the best model, and the cost of model uncertainty was small; indeed DMA performed slightly better than the best physical model. When model uncertainty and the number of models considered were large, our method ensured that the penalty for model uncertainty was small. At the beginning of the process, when control is most difficult, we found that DMA over a large model space led to better predictions than the single best performing physically motivated model.
Investigating the evolutionary history of maize in South America

The University of ManchesterClaudia J. Grimaldo GiraldoDoctor of PhilosophyInvestigating the evolutionary history of maize in South America2011Maize (Zea mays ssp. mays), a crop of great importance worldwide, is characterised by its great adaptability and its extraordinary variability both at the molecular and the phenotypic level. Behind these remarkable features lies a complex evolutionary history. The main aim of this research is to contribute to a better understanding of it by answering questions about the origin, phylogenetic relationships, and initial dispersion of maize, using South America as a case study. To achieve this aim, archaeological specimens and primitive landraces were genotyped at 20 microsatellite loci. Sequences of Adh2-UM, a locus informative of the routes of initial dispersion of maize in South America, were also obtained. The data gathered were analysed using tree-building and network methods, and a Bayesian model-based clustering approach to infer population structure. Our results are consistent with a model of initial dispersion by which after its introduction, maize spread along the Andes and through eastern Bolivia and northwest Argentina towards the east of the continent to the area of Paraguay and southern Brazil, and gave rise to the maize distributed to the east of the Andean mountains. Analysis of population structure indicate that variation among the races analysed is more phenotypic than genetic, and that considerable amounts of gene flow has been occurring at a macro-regional level. We believe that cultural practices and cultural contacts played a fundamental role in making maize on these areas more genetically similar, while at the same time keeping maize phenotypically different. Further studies of ancient DNA, coupled with archaeological and ethnographical knowledge of cultural trajectories, have the huge potential of contributing to a better understanding of how and since when these macro-regional areas of gene flow have been in place.
Soft Bedrock Erosion Modeling with a Two-Dimensional Depth-Averaged Model

Many rivers in Taiwan have steep slopes, are subject to typhoon-induced flood flows, and contain soft bedrock that is exposed at many locations and easily erodible. The occurrence of extensive bedrock erosion has been a major threat to river infrastructure at many locations. Soft bedrock erosion, therefore, is an important process to consider for river projects in Taiwan. In this study, bedrock erosion models are reviewed. A specific model is proposed by combining two existing models incorporating both the hydraulic and abrasive scour mechanisms. The proposed bedrock erosion model is incorporated into a two-dimensional mobile-bed model, and the integrated model is tested by simulating bedrock erosion downstream of the Chi-Chi weir on the Choshui River in Taiwan. A calibration study is performed to determine appropriate values of the model parameters based on two and a half years of measured data. The model is then assessed based on a verification study that compares model predictions of bedrock erosion of.
Scaling the gas transfer velocity and hydraulic geometry in streams and small rivers

Scaling is an integral component of ecology and earth science. To date, the ability to determine the importance of air – water gas exchange across large spatial scales is hampered partly by our ability to scale the gas transfer velocity and stream hydraulics. Here we report on a metadata analysis of 563 direct gas tracer release experiments that examines scaling laws for the gas transfer velocity. We found that the gas transfer velocity scales with the product of stream slope and velocity, which is in alignment with theory on stream energy dissipation. In addition to providing equations that predict the gas transfer velocity based on stream hydraulics, we used our hydraulic data set to report a new set of hydraulic exponents and coefficients that allow the prediction of stream width, depth, and velocity based on discharge. Finally, we report a new table of gas Schmidt number dependencies to allow researchers to estimate a gas transfer velocity using our equation for many gasses of interest.
Zonal variations of peak ionization rates in upper atmosphere of Mars at high latitude using Mars Global Surveyor accelerometer data

[1] The Accelerometer Experiment onboard Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) measured many density profiles in the upper atmosphere of Mars during aerobraking at many latitudes, longitudes, altitudes, local solar time (LST), and seasons. Here, in this paper, we use the accelerometer data of 57 orbits (P0588-P0648) from 30 September 1998 to 24 October 1998 between latitude ranges (50°-70°N) at LST 1600 hours, under spring equinox and medium solar activity conditions (average F 10.7 ∼ 120). Using these densities, the neutral densities of different gases are derived from their mixing ratio. From these neutral densities the longitudinal distribution of peak photoionization rates, peak photoelectron impact ionization rates, and the total peak ionization rates of CO + 2 , N + 2 and O + are obtained for solar zenith angle 78° at wavelength range 10-1025.7 A due to solar EUV radiation using analytical yield spectrum approach (AYS). These calculations are made at different altitudes and longitudes starting from 115 to 220 km and 0° to 360°E using intervals of 0.1 km and 5°, respectively. These conditions are appropriate for MGS phase 2 aerobraking period from which the accelerometer data are used. The Fourier analysis of the various peak ionization rates of CO + 2 , N + 2 , and O + indicates the presence of two dominant harmonic regions at high latitude in the upper atmosphere of Mars. The first is a class of long planetary-scale waves that may be associated with the fixed topography of Martian surface. The second is a class of rapidly moving transient disturbances that may be associated with baroclinic instability processes.
A Low Frequency, Passive Seismic Experiment over a Carbonate Reservoir in Abu Dhabi Wavefront and Particle Motion Studi

A low frequency passive seismic experiment conducted over an onshore carbonate oilfield in Abu Dhabi observed a narrow band of low frequency (2.5 – 2.8 Hz) signals over both the oil reservoir and the water saturated zone (Ali et al., 2007). The possible causes of this low frequency energy are not well understood and it has yet to be demonstrated what types of waves are being observed. In this paper we present results of an investigation carried out to determine the apparent velocities and the azimuth of the wave fronts as well as the particle motion of the recorded low frequency waves. This work is currently ongoing, but the results so far indicates that the observed waves are most likely some type of surface wave and the azimuth to the source is pointing towards the nearest coastline in the area (the Arabian Gulf).
Preface [to special section on Monsoon '90 Multidisciplinary Experiment]

The Monsoon '90 multidisciplinary field campaign was conducted over the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service Walnut Gulch experimental watershed in southeastern Arizona during June–September 1990. A primary objective of this combined ground, aircraft, and satellite campaign was to assess the feasibility of utilizing remotely sensed data coupled with water and energy balance modeling for large-area estimates of fluxes in semiarid rangelands. The experimental period encompassed a variety of vegetation, soil moisture, and rainfall conditions characterized by large temporal and spatial gradients. This preface outlines experimental objectives, briefly discusses the field campaigns, summarizes initial observations, and provides an overview of articles that are a part of the Monsoon '90 special section.
Analysis and validity of the polInSAR line model on forested areas

This paper focuses on the analysis of certain hypotheses considered in quantitative remote sensing of forest areas by means of Polarimetric SAR Interferometry (PolInSAR). When addressing the quantitative estimation of forest parameters in PolInSAR, the estimation is usually based on the inversion of the Random Volume over Ground (RVoG) coherent scattering model. We present an study of the validity of this assumption, based on the analysis of the measured data and the coherence region resulting from the variation of the interferometric coherence as a function of polarization.
The contribution of remote sensing to the implementation of the Montreal Protocol and the monitoring of its success

This paper presents the background to the special issue of the International Journal of Remote Sensing which is being published to celebrate the 20th anniversary of the coming into effect in January 1989 of the Montreal Protocol on substances that damage the amospheric ozone layer. Starting from the discovery of ozone and the ozone layer, we recall the proposition of Molina and Rowland that man-made CFCs pose a major threat to the ozone layer. This was followed by about 15 years of scientific research, scientific discussion, intense political discussions and international negotiations which led to the formulation of the Montreal Protocol that prohibits the manufacture and use of ozone-destroying substances. The papers in this special issue of the Journal are concerned with addressing the role of remote sensing in monitoring and assessing the success, or otherwise, of the Montreal Protocol.
On the temporal stability of ground calibration targets: implications for the reproducibility of remote sensing methodologies

Ground calibration targets (GCT) fulfil an essential role in vicarious calibration and atmospheric correction methodologies. However, assumptions are often made about the temporal stability of GCT reflectance. This letter presents results from a multi‐year study aimed at testing the temporal stability of a typical weathered concrete GCT in southern England. Very accurate measurements of hemispherical‐directional reflectance factors in the 400–1000 nm range were collected using a mobile dual‐beam spectroradiometer. Results demonstrated that the calibration surface was subject to seasonal growth of a biological material, which caused the reflectance factor to vary by a factor of two during the year (range = 16.4% reflectance at 670 nm). The spectral effect of this was most noticeable in field spectra collected in April. As environmental conditions became drier throughout the summer, concrete reflectance factors increased. Over multiple seasons the same patterns in reflectance factors repeated, indicating the predictable nature of the biological signature. The research also suggested that the biological material was affected to a small but measurable extent on a daily basis by changes in relative humidity occurring after onset of a local sea breeze. The research highlights the dynamic nature of weathered GCTs, and has wider implications for those using similar sites for vicarious calibration or atmospheric correction purposes.
Tectonics of the Himalayan collision between the Indian Plate and the Afghan Block: a synthesis

Abstract A synthesis of the available tectonic, structural, magmatic and geochronologic data from Afghanistan and western Pakistan suggests that collision between the Indian Plate and the Afghan Block (a collage of blocks assembled during the Cimmeride orogeny), took place during the Pliocene. Prior to this, the thinned western margin of the Indian Plate, together with the transitional to oceanic crust which separated the Indian Plate from the Afghan Block, was overlain by a wedge of Tertiary clastic sediments deposited in a large flexural basin that included what is now the Katawaz basin as well as the Sulaiman foredeep. At least three phases of collision can thus be recognised in the northwest Himalaya: the first, at about 100 Ma involved the suturing of the Kohistan-Ladakh-East Nuristan island arc to southern Asia; the second, at about 55 Ma involved India-Asia collision and the third, during the Pliocene, involved India-Afghanistan collision. During the Eocene and Miocene, the Afghan block was displaced southwards in response to Indian indentation into Asia. Simultaneous counterclockwise rotation of the Afghan Block resulted in intracontinental extension causing alkaline magmatism and right lateral displacements along the Herat Fault. As the Indian Plate moved northward with respect to Afghanistan, some of the wedge of clastic sediments deposited on the Indian transitional crust were accreted to the leading edge of the Afghan block and displaced sinistrally with respect to the rest of the sediments in the wedge. These displaced sediments now form the Makran sequence. Collisional structures on both sides of the India-Afghan collision zone in the Helmand block and the Sulaiman-Kirthar Ranges probably represent the inversion of continental margin basins rather than thrust belts with large shortening amounts. After initial inversion, the dominant feature of this highly oblique collision has been transpressional tectonics. Prior to its final docking with the Afghan Block, the Kabul block was a continental slice, completely surrounded by oceanic crust, and located northwest of continental India. Palaeocene collision between India and the Kabul block could have led to thickening of the Indian Plate prior to initiation of India-Asia collision.
Self-Harming Trade Policy? Protectionism and Production Networks

Using monthly data on temporary trade barriers (TTBs), we estimate the dynamic employment effects of protectionism through vertical production linkages. First, exploiting high-frequency data and TTB procedural details, we identify trade policy shocks exogenous to economic fundamentals. We then use input-output tables to construct measures of protectionism affecting downstream producers. Finally, we estimate panel local projections using the identified trade policy shocks. Protectionism has small and insignificant beneficial effects in protected industries. The effects in downstream industries are negative, sizable, and significant. The employment decline follows an increase in intermediate input and final goods prices and a decline in stock market returns. (JEL E24, F13, F14, F16, G14, L14)
Dynamic deformation of the accretionary prism excites very low frequency earthquakes

We have detected anomalous very‐low‐frequency earthquakes within the accretionary prism along the Nankai Trough, southwestern Japan. Centroid moment tensor inversion analysis reveals that the earthquake hypocenters are distributed at ∼10 km depth above the upper surface of the subducting Philippine Sea Plate, and within 50–70 km landward of the trough axis. The focal mechanisms indicate reverse faulting. Their hypocenters are distributed beneath a deformation zone of an accretionary prism in sea‐floor topography. These observations suggest that the occurrence of very‐low‐frequency earthquakes is related to numerous reverse fault systems within the accretionary prism, and that the earthquakes reflect the dynamics of deformation within this accretionary prism.
The annual cycle in ENSO growth rate as a cause of the spring predictability barrier

The spring predictability barrier increases the uncertainty in ENSO forecasts starting before and during the boreal spring. Recent work has shown that the annual cycle of ENSO growth rate is responsible for phase locking of peak ENSO development to the boreal winter, suggesting that this annual cycle may play a role in the spring predictability barrier. To test this hypothesis, the annual cycle of ENSO growth rate is added to a damped, noise‐driven conceptual recharge oscillator model. When the annual cycle of ENSO growth rate is included, a spring predictability barrier develops, whereas without it ENSO predictability is independent of the forecast start date. When state‐dependent noise is included in the simulations in addition to the annual cycle of the growth rate, the spring predictability barrier is enhanced and more realistic.
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Alhussein Abouzeid Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute Raviraj Adve University of Toronto Dharma Agrawal University of Cincinnati Walid Ahmed Tyco M/A-COM Sonia Aissa University of Quebec, INRSEMT Huseyin Arslan University of South Florida Nallanathan Arumugam National University of Singapore Saewoong Bahk Seoul National University Claus Bauer Dolby Laboratories Brahim Bensaou Hong Kong University of Science and Technology Rick Blum Lehigh University Michael Buehrer Virginia Tech Antonio Capone Politecnico di Milano Javier Gómez Castellanos National University of Mexico Claude Castelluccia INRIA Henry Chan The Hong Kong Polytechnic University Ajit Chaturvedi Indian Institute of Technology Kanpur Jyh-Cheng Chen National Tsing Hua University Yong Huat Chew Institute for Infocomm Research Tricia Chigan Michigan Tech Dong-Ho Cho Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Tech. Jinho Choi University of New South Wales Carlos Cordeiro Philips Research USA Laurie Cuthbert Queen Mary University of London Arek Dadej University of South Australia Sajal Das University of Texas at Arlington Franco Davoli DIST University of Genoa Xiaodai Dong, University of Alberta Hassan El-sallabi Helsinki University of Technology Ozgur Ercetin Sabanci University Elza Erkip Polytechnic University Romano Fantacci University of Florence Frank Fitzek Aalborg University Mario Freire University of Beira Interior Vincent Gaudet University of Alberta Jairo Gutierrez University of Auckland Michael Hadjitheodosiou University of Maryland Zhu Han University of Maryland College Park Christian Hartmann Technische Universitat Munchen Hossam Hassanein Queen's University Soong Boon Hee Nanyang Technological University Paul Ho Simon Fraser University Antonio Iera University "Mediterranea" of Reggio Calabria Markku Juntti University of Oulu Stefan Kaiser DoCoMo Euro-Labs Nei Kato Tohoku University Dongkyun Kim Kyungpook National University Ryuji Kohno Yokohama National University Bhaskar Krishnamachari University of Southern California Giridhar Krishnamurthy Indian Institute of Technology Madras Lutz Lampe University of British Columbia Bjorn Landfeldt The University of Sydney Peter Langendoerfer IHP Microelectronics Technologies Eddie Law Ryerson University in Toronto
EPISODIC SUSPENDED SEDIMENT TRANSPORT AND ELEVATED POLYCYCLIC AROMATIC HYDROCARBON CONCENTRATIONS IN A SMALL, MOUNTAINOUS RIVER IN COASTAL CALIFORNIA

Suspended sediment and organic contaminants were measured during a period of 2 years in the San Lorenzo River, central California, which discharges into the Pacific Ocean within the Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary, in an effort to quantify the potential environmental effects of storm events from a steep, mountainous coastal urban watershed. Most suspended sediment transport occurred during flooding caused by winter storms; 56% of the total sediment load for the 2‐year study was transported by the river during one storm event in January 2010. Concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons can exceed regulatory criteria during high‐flow events in the San Lorenzo River, and total annual polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbon load was on the order of 10 kg in water year 2010. These results highlight the importance of episodic sediment and contaminant transport in steep, mountainous coastal watersheds and emphasize the importance of understanding physical processes and quantifying chemical constituents in discharge from coastal watersheds on event‐scale terms. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.
UiO-66-NH2 based fluorescent sensing for detection of tetracyclines in milk

In this work, a fluorescent sensor based on a zirconium-based metal organic framework was prepared for the detection of tetracyclines (TCs) in milk. The UiO-66-NH2 fluorescent sensor was synthesized by a simple microwave-assisted method with 2-aminoterephthalic acid and zirconium chloride as precursors. In the presence of target TCs, the synergistic effect of the inner filter effect (IFE) and photo-induced electron transfer (PET) was responsible for the fluorescence quenching of UiO-66-NH2, and the fluorescence sensor showed a rapid fluorescence quenching response (5 min) to target TCs. The proposed UiO-66-NH2 sensor had good sensitivity and selectivity, and under the optimal conditions possessed detection limits of 0.449, 0.431, and 0.163 μM for tetracycline (TET), oxytetracycline (OTC), and doxycycline (DOX), respectively. Besides, the UiO-66-NH2 sensor was successfully applied to the quantitative detection of TCs in milk samples with reasonable recoveries of 93.26–115.17%, and the detection results achieved from the as-fabricated fluorescence sensing assay were consistent with those of high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC), indicating the potential applicability of the UiO-66-NH2 sensor for detecting TCs in actual food samples.
IMPACTS OF URBANIZATION ON SURFACE HYDROLOGY, LITTLE EAGLE CREEK, INDIANA, AND ANALYSIS OF LTHIA MODEL SENSITIVITY TO DATA RESOLUTION

Land-use change in urbanizing areas can significantly alter the hydrology of a watershed and can have serious impacts on wetland water balances, downstream flooding, and groundwater recharge. Most currently available models used in determining the hydrologic impacts of urbanization are not well suited to long-term hydrologic analysis or are too complex and data intensive for widespread practical application. The Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment (LTHIA) model run on a Geographic Information System (GIS) is a relatively simple, user-friendly model that uses the Curve Number method to estimate changes in surface runoff between different stages of development. Application of the model to a large, rapidly urbanizing watershed near Indianapolis, Indiana, suggests that average annual runoff depths increased by more than 60% from 1973 to 1991, with even greater increases for some individual sub-basins. These results are consistent with runoff changes estimated from historical stream flow data in the watershed. A sensitivity analysis to determine minimum data requirements shows that a precipitation record length of 15 years or more is required to produce consistent results with LTHIA and that the highest possible resolution land-use and soils data should be used. The LTHIA model is now available on the Internet at http://www.ecn. purdue.edu/runoff. [Key words: hydrology, urbanization, modeling, GIS. ]