Temperate Forests and Climate Change in Mexico: from Modelling to Adaptation Strategies

At present there is no doubt that climate change is affecting the structure, function and the geographic distribution of temperate ecosystems at regional and global scales; however in Mexico information about impacts of climate change on temperate forest ecosystems are scarce. The present chapter presents two studies of the effect of climate change on distribution of species of pines and oaks, and the change in functional groups composition of temperate forests ecosystems in Mexico; and, finally we resume a experience on identifying adaptation measures in a local forestry sector to climate change with three participatory workshops with key actors in forestry at state level. We realized a projection for the year 2050 that included two scenarios, a severe and a conservative one of how climate change would impact spatial distribution to 17 species of oaks and 17 species of pines at national level. Results of this study showed that the effect of alterations in temperature and precipitation modeled under both climate-change scenarios will reduce the current ranges of geographic distribution of almost all species of oaks and pines. Responses of these species to the different scenarios of climate change are predicted to be species-specific and related to each species affinity. The most affected species under the severe and conservative climate change scenarios will be P . rudis , P. chihuahuana, P. culminicola, P.oocarpa, Q. acutifolia, Q. crispipilis , and Q. peduncularis. On the other hand we show an analysis of the possible responses of functional groups was based on the distribution. In another regional study in Tlaxcala (central Mexico) climate change scenarios projected a condition of drier and warmer (lower soil moisture) climate during the spring, thus the risk of forest fires would increase. Besides, losses of climate change of cover forest are another hazard in the state like illegal logging and land use change. It is estimated that by 2080 there will be only about 40% of the actual forest area in Tlaxcala by illegal logging and harvesting practices. Therefore, climate change will accelerate the forests loss in the state and in two or three decades will be very little remaining to preserve. As a result of a series of stakeholders in Tlaxcala we identified adaptation strategies that we grouped under three headings: reforestation, forest conservation and production. Climate change is emerging as one of the most important issues of our time, with the potential to cause profound cascading effects on ecosystems and society. However, these effects are poorly understood and our projections for climate change trends and effects have thus far proven to be inaccurate. In this collection of 24 chapters, we present a cross-section of some of the most challenging issues related to oceans, lakes, forests, and agricultural systems under a changing climate. The authors present evidence for changes and variability in climatic and atmospheric conditions, investigate some the impacts that climate change is having on the Earth's ecological and social systems, and provide novel ideas, advances and applications for mitigation and adaptation of our socio-ecological systems to climate change. Difficult questions are asked. What have been some of the impacts of climate change on our natural and managed ecosystems? How do we manage for resilient socio-ecological systems? How do we predict the future? What are relevant climatic change and management scenarios? How can we shape management regimes to increase our adaptive capacity to climate change? These themes are visited across broad spatial and temporal scales, touch on important and relevant ecological patterns and processes, and represent broad geographic regions, from the tropics, to temperate and boreal regions, to the Arctic.