Sino-Japanese Relations

The 2008 commemoration of the 30th anniversary of the peace and friendship treaty between Japan and the People's Republic of China coincided with much optimism about the healthy development and prosperous future of this bilateral relationship. Observers around the globe are welcoming the end to the frosty relations that existed under former Japanese Prime Minister Jun'ichiro Koizumi (2001-06), while news articles and reports tend to reproduce the official line that the "ice" between the countries has been "breaking" and "melting," and that the relationship is now experiencing a period of "spring. "The recent signs of detente in Sino-Japanese relations should indeed be welcomed, but this should not amount to turning a blind eye to the substantial problems that remain unsolved - problems that could, moreover, be repoliticized by nationalist forces in both countries. Continuing with the officially sanctioned ice metaphor, one could argue that the present breaking and melting are only occurring at the tip ofthe iceberg, most of which is yethidden under water. It is still highly uncertain that the current spring will be succeeded by summer; the risk of a sudden relapse to what may be likened to autumn, or perhaps even winter, is considerable.Based mostly on recent interviews with Japanese decision-makers and academics, this article aims to unsettle the idea that Sino -Japanese relations are nearing stability. As one Japanese informant stated, very succinctly, "[t]he official view of Japan's relationship with China. is almost so good it is scary. The leaders talk about the breaking and melting of ice but it is almost as if they are throwing hot water on the ice. The gap between the earlier tension and present positive statements is all too big. "1A SINO-JAPANESE "COLD WAR"With Koizumi's ascent to power in April 2001, mistrust and mutual apprehension on both sides ofthe East China Sea came forcefully to the fore and produced what some observers called a "cold war" in Sino-Japanese relations.2 One could argue that a major underlying reason for the strained relationship was structural changes in the 1990s: the shared enemy - the Soviet Union - disappeared and, as Japan sank further into economic decline, China rose as an economic powerhouse. However, most of the Japanese interviewees quoted in this article tend to agree that it was Koizumi's annual pilgrimages in 2001-06 to the Yasukuni Shrine, which honours the memory of Japanese war dead, including 14 class-? war criminals, that led more directly to bilateral animosity in the early- and mid2000s.According to China's Vice-Foreign Minister Wu Dawei and others, the relationship became particularly frostbitten in 2005, when it reached an alltime low since the two countries normalized their relationship in 1972. 3 Apart from Koizumi's recurring visits to Yasukuni, the slippery slope towards a new ice age involved, in short, ongoing disputes over economic rights in the East China Sea, riots in Beijing after Japan beat China in the Asia Cup finals in August 2004, the intrusion into Japanese territorial waters of a Chinese nuclear attack submarine in November of the same year, the Japanese identification of China as "a concern" alongside North Korea in the national defence program guidelines of December 2004, and the alleged collection of 44 million signatures for a Chinese petition against Japan's bid for a permanent seat on the United Nations security council. It also involved a US-Japan joint statement in February 2005, which could be interpreted to include the security of Taiwan in the alliance's affairs; and the Japanese ministry of education's approval in April the same year of a controversial history textbook that was perceived to gloss over Japan's wartime atrocities in the 1930s and 1940s, and which provoked mass demonstrations in various Chinese cities in the last week of March and the first weeks of April 2005. In December 2005, then-Foreign Minister - at the time of writing in January 2009 Japanese Prime Minister - Taro Aso went so far as to call China "a considerable threat. …