The Impact of Priority Settings at the Start of COVID-19 Mass Vaccination on Subsequent Vaccine Uptake in Japan: One-Year Prospective Cohort Study

Background Distributing COVID-19 vaccines to the public was an important task for the governments of each country. Because of various limitations, priority settings for vaccination were determined at the time of mass vaccination. However, trends between vaccine intention and uptake, as well as reasons for getting vaccinated or not getting vaccinated, among these groups were understudied, undermining verification of the legitimacy of priority selection. Objective This study aims to illustrate a trend from prior COVID-19 vaccine intention, when the vaccine was not available, to the actual uptake within 1 year when all residents had access to the vaccine, to illustrate a change of reason for getting vaccinated or not getting vaccinated and to examine whether priority settings predicted subsequent vaccination uptake. Methods Prospective cohort, web-based, self-administered surveys were conducted in Japan at 3 time points: February 2021, September to October 2021, and February 2022. In total, 13,555 participants (age: mean 53.1, SD 15.9 years) provided valid responses, with a 52.1% follow-up rate. On the basis of the information obtained in February 2021, we identified 3 types of priority groups: health care workers (n=831), people aged ≥65 years (n=4048), and those aged 18 to 64 years with underlying medical conditions (n=1659). The remaining patients were treated as nonpriority (n=7017). Modified Poisson regression analysis with a robust error estimated the risk ratio for COVID-19 vaccine uptake after adjusting for socioeconomic background, health-seeking behavior, attitude toward vaccines, and COVID-19 infection history. Results In February 2021, a total of 5182 out of 13,555 (38.23%) respondents expressed their intention to get vaccinated. In February 2022, a total of 1570 out of 13,555 (11.6%) respondents completed the third dose and 10,589 (78.1%) respondents completed the second dose. Prior vaccine intention and subsequent vaccine coverage rates were higher in the priority groups. Protection of themselves and their families from potential infection was the most frequent reason for getting vaccinated, whereas concern about side effects was the most frequent reason for hesitation across the groups. Risk ratios for received, reserved, or intended for vaccination in February 2022 were 1.05 (95% CI 1.03-1.07) for the health care worker group, 1.02 (95% CI 1.005-1.03) for the older adult group, and 1.01 (95% CI 0.999-1.03) for the preexisting conditions group compared with the nonpriority group. Prior vaccine intention and confidence in vaccines were strong predictors of vaccine uptake. Conclusions The priority settings at the start of the COVID-19 vaccination program had a significant impact on vaccine coverage after 1 year. The priority group for vaccination achieved higher vaccination coverage in February 2022. There was room for improvement among the nonpriority group. The findings of this study are essential for policy makers in Japan and other countries to develop effective vaccination strategies for future pandemics.