Smallholder agriculture in the context of increasing population densities in rural Kenya

SMALLHOLDER AGRICULTURE IN THE CONTEXT OF INCREASING POPULATION DENSITIES IN RURAL KENYA By Milu C. Muyanga Smallholder farmers constitute the bulk of agricultural producers in sub-Saharan Africa and majority of them are poor. Based on sub-Saharan Africa’s land endowment, an agriculturalled growth strategy has been touted as solution for reductions in poverty in this region. However, recent studies cast doubts on the land abundance hypothesis. Each day, the Africa smallholders’ landholding and access shrink as population density rises. Despite these mounting population related challenges, analysts have pointed out that sub-Saharan Africa still has the potential to revitalize smallholder agricultural productivity for reduced poverty and hunger if appropriate policies are pursued. They cite the example of the smallholder-led broad-based Asian green revolution that contributed greatly to rural poverty reduction in that region to argue their case. The first essay investigates the potential for similar forms of inclusive agricultural growth using Kenya as a case study. The study specifically investigate whether formal and informal land institutions in Kenya are making it possible for a broad-based smallholder led agricultural growth process as enjoyed in much of Asia. In Kenya, there has been a policy thinking that agricultural and land reforms supported by adequate government budget allocation have the potential to underpin a revitalized system of smallholder production especially in areas where land sizes have become too small. This Essay uses three sources of data, namely: a panel data spanning 13 years, cross-sectional medium scale farmers’ survey data, and qualitative data from focus group discussions. Several consistent findings are as follows: First, diminishing land sizes have become a binding agricultural production constraint in the densely populated regions of the Kenya. Second, the majority of medium-scale farmers, defined as using between 5-50 hectares for agricultural purposes, owned on average over two times more land than they were using for agriculture, implying a high degree of land owned for speculative purposes and/or an inability these farmers to make productive use of the land they owned. Majority of medium scale farmers are either current or former public sector employees; and acquired their land from savings from non-farm, largely urban jobs; only a minority were primarily engaged in agriculture prior to achieving medium-scale farming status. The second essay examines how rising population pressure affects smallholders’ production, commercialization and household incomes. Using data from five panel surveys on 1,169 small-scale farms, econometric techniques are used to determine how increasing rural population density is affecting farm household behavior and livelihoods. The estimation strategy deals with the potential endogeneity of population density in input demand and output supply equations using a two-stage control function approach. The overall picture emerging from this essay is that land is becoming an increasingly constraining factor of production and that smallholder agriculture farming practices in the areas of high population density are distinctly more land-intensive. Inputs and output agricultural intensification, household incomes and smallholder commercialization rise with population density up to about 600-700 persons per km; beyond this threshold, rising population density is associated with sharp declines in agricultural intensification and commercialization. Copyright by MILU C. MUYANGA 2013