Changing Homeland Security: Shape, Patterns, Not Programs

Prelude To VexationWhat is a homeland security future worth creating? 1 Each of us could posit an answer to that question. After enough talk, we would probably agree on the broad outlines of a desirable future. Eventually we could develop a strategy for implementing that vision - or at least some of it - within the next ten years. But as the years passed, our vision would encounter the tedium of incrementalism, the discontinuity of unexpected disappointment, and the surprise of unearned fortune.Nietzsche wrote about this process:To make plans and project designs brings with it many good sensations; and whoever had the strength to be nothing but a forger of plans his whole life long would be a very happy man. But he would occasionally have to take a rest from this activity by carrying out a plan - and then comes the vexation and the sobering up. 2Homeland security strategy - defined as the pattern of consistent behavior over time - is both intentional and emergent. The homeland security community does a continually improving job identifying and enacting intended strategy. 3 The community is less effective explicitly acknowledging and integrating emergent strategy. We can do better.Getting where we want to be in the next decade will be somewhat like driving at night. We know broadly what our destination could be. But we see only as far as our headlights shine and we do not know what we will encounter on the road.This essay describes a framework that can help keep the homeland security community between the white lines on the road to a future worth creating. It recommends a strategic process that incorporates the dynamic realities of complex adaptive systems. It asserts that recognizing and managing systemic patterns - rather than focusing on programs - would benefit homeland security. 4Act One: Passing Along The PrologueScene 1: Glaucon is talking to Socrates. Glaucon's five-year-old son has a birthday next month, and Glaucon is looking for advice about planning the party. 5Socrates:What is your thinking thus far? Glaucon:Well, we have a birthday party strategy. The goal is for everyone to have a safe and enjoyable time. We have specific and measurable objectives we want to accomplish. We have identified the key milestones from now until the party. We have a timeline to follow, including a tabletop exercise. We are assuming a three-hour operational phase followed by a two-hour recovery. That evening, we will conduct a hot wash to identify any lessons learned to build into next year's birthday party planning.Socrates:That appears to be an efficient and sound strategy. Why do you want my advice? Glaucon:In our past conversations, you have disagreed with everything I said. You have talked me out of all my initial beliefs. I thought I would use you as quality control, just to make certain I did not miss anything.Socrates:I really do not have anything to add. Your strategy appears to be rational and well conceived. I cannot imagine anything could go wrong. Shall we have lunch after the party so you can tell me how your strategy worked? Scene 2: One month and one day later. Glaucon meets Socrates for lunch.Socrates:How was the party? Glaucon:If I have to do anything like that again, I will drink hemlock.Socrates:It did not go well? Glaucon:Let me count the ways. It rained for most of the day. More children and parents attended than we planned for. Some of the people arrived hours before we were ready. They brought food, gifts, and animals and changed our careful arrangements into utter chaos. Some of the animals went into my study and scattered my projects everywhere. Organizing the children was like trying to get puppies to march. They did not respect or sit still for the devotional sacrifice. …