Relationship Between the California Drought and Almond Demand

Relationship Between the California Drought and Almond Demand by Wayne E. Lacy MBA, Western Governor’s University, 2014 BSIT, University of Phoenix, 2012 Doctoral Study Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Business Administration Walden University December 2017 Abstract Areas of California’s Central Valley are sinking at rates up to 1 foot per year due to subsidence caused, in part, by the state’s years-long drought, challenging growers to locate additional water sources for their crops. Supply and demand theory guided this correlational study. The purpose of the study was to examine the financial impact of drought on almond demand. This study included annualized historical almond industryAreas of California’s Central Valley are sinking at rates up to 1 foot per year due to subsidence caused, in part, by the state’s years-long drought, challenging growers to locate additional water sources for their crops. Supply and demand theory guided this correlational study. The purpose of the study was to examine the financial impact of drought on almond demand. This study included annualized historical almond industry data for the United States (N = 97), downloaded from a United States Department of Agriculture database. The results of multiple linear regression analysis indicated that the model was capable of predicting almond demand, F(3,92) = 483.579, p < . 001, R = . 940. Both supply and price were statistically significant in the final model, with supply (p < .001) accounting for a higher contribution to the model than price (p = .015). Fine effect’s contribution (p = .267) to the model was not statistically significant. The results of this study could enable almond industry leaders to increase profit margins through market predictability understanding and mitigate fiscal risks associated with variable labor and groundwater pumping costs. The implications for positive social change include the potential to restore employment opportunities, stabilize migratory worker prospects, and reduce water utilization to preserve natural resources. Relationship Between the California Drought and Almond Demand by Wayne E. Lacy MBA, Walden University, 2014 BSIT, University of Phoenix, 2012 Doctoral Study Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Business Administration Walden University December 2017 Dedication If I could save time in a bottle the first thing that I'd like to do is to save every day 'til eternity passes away just to spend them with you ~ Jim Croce (1972) My father taught me to appreciate music. My mother taught me to be strong. The Navy taught me to see the world as a whole. You taught me to live. This work is dedicated to you.my beautiful wife, Peggy. I wish I could give back the many days, evenings, nights, and weekends that slipped away while freeing these pages from my mind. I thank you from the deepest part of my soul for urging me to be better, pushing me through the difficult parts, and just being there when I needed to decompress. Without you behind me, I would not have started this journey. Without you beside me, I would not have continued. Without you in front of me, I would not have had anyone to cheer me through the finish. Thank you! Acknowledgments A single conversation with a wise man is better than ten years of study ~ Chinese proverb The completion of this study was made possible through constant interaction with my committee chair, Dr. Edward Walker. I must acknowledge his unwavering support and encouragement that enabled me to work through difficult times when I could not do it on my own. I would also like to acknowledge Dr. Erik Shefsky, Proposal Second Committee Member, Dr. James Glenn, Study Second Committee Member, and Dr. Scott Burrus, URR. Their insight and advice facilitated significant growth in the scholarly quality of this study. Finally, I would like to acknowledge Mr. Joseph Poio, my high school music teacher. When he placed me as the drum major of the high school band more than 30 years ago, he unknowingly set me on this path. He taught me that great things could be accomplished through belief in oneself. I cannot convey how tightly I held to Joe’s every word, but the following example should suffice. Those who were not part of the band will not understand this reference, but it will be incredibly clear for those who were. Joe, “Airplane. ” Everyone else, “Bad joke. ” Thank you, Joe!