Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Why did the 2011–2012 La Niña cause a severe drought in the Brazilian Northeast?

The Brazilian Northeast (NE) is strongly affected by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During La Niña events, the precipitation over the NE is generally above average. However, during the last La Niña event in 2011–2012, the NE went through its worst drought in the last 30 years. In this study, observations and numerical simulations are used to determine what made the 2011–2012 event different from other events. We find that eastern Pacific (canonical) La Niña events cause a cooling of the tropical North Atlantic and warming of the tropical South Atlantic that lead to a southward migration of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which in turn brings rain to the NE. On the other hand, La Niña events with the cooling concentrated in the central Pacific cause the opposite meridional sea surface temperature (SST) gradient in the tropical Atlantic, leading to droughts over the NE. The 2011–2012 event was of the latter type. This study also shows that it is possible to predict the sign of the NE rainfall anomaly during ENSO events using a simple SST index.
Coyote Attacks: An Increasing Suburban Problem

Coyote attacks on humans and pets have increased within the past 5 years in California. We discuss documented occurrences of coyote aggression and attacks on people, using data from USDA Wildlife Services, the California Department of Fish & Game, and other sources. Forty-eight such attacks on children and adults were verified from 1998 through 2003, compared to 41 attacks during the period 1988 through 1997; most incidents occurred in Southern California near the suburban-wildland interface. Attack incidents are typically preceded by a sequence of increasingly bold coyote behaviors, including: nighttime coyote attacks on pets; sightings of coyotes in neighborhoods at night; sightings of coyotes in morning and evening; attacks on pets during daylight hours; attacks on pets on leashes and chasing of joggers and bicyclists; and finally, mid-day sightings of coyotes in and around children's play areas. In suburban areas, coyotes can lose their fear of humans as a result of coming to rely on ample food resources including increased numbers of rabbits and rodents, household refuse, pet food, available water from ponds and landscape irrigation run-off, and even intentional feeding of coyotes by residents. The safe environment provided by a wildlife-loving general public, who rarely display aggression toward coyotes, is also thought to be a major contributing factor. The termination or reduction of predator management programs adjacent to some urban areas has also served to contribute to coyotes' loss of fear of humans and to a dependency on resources in the suburban environment. Corrective action can be effective if implemented before coyote attacks on pets become common. However, if environmental modification and changes in human behavior toward coyotes are delayed, then removal of offending predators by traps or shooting is required in order to resolve the threat to human safety. We note the failure of various non-lethal harassment techniques to correct the problem in situations where coyotes have become habituated to human-provided food resources. Coyote attacks on humans in suburbia are preventable, but the long-term solution of this conflict requires public education, changes in residents' behavior, and in some situations, the means to effectively remove individual offending animals.
Hydrological impact of forest-fire from paired-catchment and rainfall–runoff modelling perspectives

Abstract This study deals with the Rimbaud catchment, a sub-catchment within the Réal Collobrier hydrological observatory in southeastern France, managed by Irstea since 1966. This observatory suffered a wildfire in 1990. Because of the dense network of streamgauges and raingauges available, this site provides a unique opportunity to test and compare two types of analysis, one based on paired catchments and the other a rainfall–runoff model, used to assess the hydrological impact of forest fire. In the present case, more than 20 years of pre-fire and post-fire data are available. We compare the ability of the two approaches to detect gradual changes at a daily time step. This case study illustrates how natural climatic variability (here a long drought which preceded the wildfire) can make the identification of hydrological changes extremely difficult.
Comparison of Canadian Air Quality Forecast Models With Tropospheric Ozone Profile Measurements Above Midlatitude North America During the IONS/ICARTT Campaign: Evidence for Stratospheric Input

[1] During July and August, 2004, balloon-borne ozonesondes were released daily at 12 sites in the eastern USA and Canada, producing the largest single set of free tropospheric ozone measurements ever compiled for this region. At the same time, a number of air quality forecast models were run daily as part of a larger field experiment. In this paper, we compare these ozonesonde profiles with predicted ozone profiles from several versions of two of these forecast models, the Environment Canada CHRONOS and AURAMS models. We find that the models show considerable skill at predicting ozone in the planetary boundary layer and immediately above. Individual station biases are variable, but often small. Standard deviations of observation-forecast differences are large, however. Ozone variability in the models is somewhat higher than observed. Most strikingly, none of the model versions is able to reproduce the typical tropospheric ozone profile of increasing mixing ratio with altitude. Results from a sensitivity test suggest that the form of the ozone lateral boundary condition used by all model versions contributes significantly to the large ozone underpredictions in the middle and upper troposphere. The discrepancy could be reduced further by adding a downward flux of ozone from the model lid and by accounting for in situ production of ozone from lightning-generated NOx.
Sea ice transports in the Weddell Sea

Time series of sea ice draft in the Weddell Sea are evaluated together with hydrographic observations, satellite passive microwave data, and ice drift for estimation of the freshwater fluxes into and out of the Weddell Sea. Ice draft is measured with moored upward looking sonars since 1990 along two transects across the Weddell Gyre. One transect, extending from the tip of the Antarctic Peninsula to Kapp Norvegia, was sampled between 1990 and 1994 and covers the flow into and out of the southern Weddell Sea. The other transect, sampled since 1996 and extending from the Antarctic continent northward along the Greenwich meridian, covers the exchange of water masses between the eastern and the western Weddell Sea. In order to relate results obtained during the different time periods, empirical relationships are established between the length of the sea ice season, derived from the satellite passive microwave data and defined as the number of days per year with the sea ice concentration exceeding 15%, and (1) the annual mean ice draft and (2) the annual mean ice volume transport. By using these empirical relationships, estimates of annual mean ice drafts and ice volume transports are derived at all mooring sites for the period February 1979 through February 1999. Wind and current force a westward ice transport in the coastal areas of the eastern Weddell Sea and a northward ice transport in the west. During the 2-year period 1991/1992 the mean ice volume export from the Weddell Sea is (50 ± 19) × 103 m3 s−1. This freshwater export is representative for a longer-term (20-year) mean and exceeds the average amount of freshwater gained by precipitation and ice shelf melt by about 19×103 m3 s−1, yielding an upper bound for the formation rate of newly ventilated bottom water in the Weddell Sea of 2.6 Sv.
Conodont faunas from the upper Tremadoc at Brattefors, south‐central Sweden, and reconstruction of the Paltodus apparatus

Abstract The Brattefors “plugs” are collapse structures in which a sedimentary sequence from the upper Tremadoc has been preserved more completely than elsewhere in south‐central Sweden. The Brattefors sequence yielded conodonts that can increase our knowledge of this interval, and improve the correlation of the mainly endemic faunas in Baltoscandia on the one side of the Iapetus with those of Laurentia on the other. The rich and well‐preserved conodont faunas from Brattefors have also enabled a detailed study of the early stages of some important conodont lineages from Baltoscandia. For instance, redeposited material of Paltodus d. pristinus from the lower part of the sequence and a collection of extremely well‐preserved Paltodus d. deltifer elements from the fauna living at the time of deposition of the same beds, provide the basis for a study of Paltodus. Additional material from other localities where Paltodus cf. P. subaequalis occurs in the lower part of the Paroistodus proteus Zone and also specime.
Conformational study of L-methionine and L-cysteine derivatives through quantum chemical calculations and 3JHH coupling constant analyses

The understanding of the conformational behavior of amino acids and their derivatives is a challenging task. Here, the conformational analysis of esterified and N-acetylated derivatives of L-methionine and L-cysteine using a combination of 1H NMR and electronic structure calculations is reported. The geometries and energies of the most stable conformers in isolated phase and taking into account the implicit solvent effects, according to the integral equation formalism polarizable continuum model (IEF−PCM), were obtained at the ωB97X-D/aug-cc-pVTZ level. The conformational preferences of the compounds in solution were also determined from experimental and theoretical 3JHH coupling constants analysis in different aprotic solvents. The results showed that the conformational stability of the esterified derivatives is not very sensitive to solvent effects, whereas the conformational equilibrium of the N-acetylated derivatives changes in the presence of solvent. According to the natural bond orbital (NBO), quantum theory of atoms in molecules (QTAIM) and noncovalent interactions (NCI) methodologies, the conformational preferences for the compounds are not dictated by intramolecular hydrogen bonding, but by a joint contribution of hyperconjugative and steric effects.
Aquifer properties of the Chalk of England

Aquifer properties data from 2100 pumping tests carried out in the Chalk aquifer have been collated as part of a joint British Geological Survey/Environment Agency project. The dataset is highly biased: most pumping tests have been undertaken in valley areas where the yield of the Chalk is highest. Transmissivity values from measured sites give the appearance of log-normality, but are not truly log-normal. The median of available data is 540 m2/d and the 25th and 75th percentiles 190 m2/d and 1500 m2/d respectively. Estimates of storage coefficient from unconfined tests have a median of 0.008 and from confined tests, 0.0006. The data indicate several trends and relationships in Chalk aquifer properties. Transmissivity is highest in the harder Chalk of Yorkshire and Lincolnshire (median 1800 m2/d). Throughout much of the Chalk aquifer a direct relation is observed between transmissivity and storage coefficient, reflecting the importance of fractures in governing both storage and transmissivity. Pumping tests undertaken in unconfined conditions give consistently higher measurements of transmissivity than in confined areas, probably as a result of increased dissolution enhancement of fractures in unconfined areas. At a catchment scale the data illustrate a relation between transmissivity and winter flowing streams.
Assessing the immediate and residual effects of chiseling for ameliorating soil compaction under long-term no-tillage

Soil compaction can be detrimental to plant growth and production, and can threaten the long-term sustainability of no-tillage systems. Chisel plowing is one of the alternatives for ameliorating soil compaction. The objective of this research was to evaluate chiseling for compaction amelioration of a Typic Hapludox under long-term no-tillage system. To achieve this objective, a soil resistance to penetration 2D transect was measured in two adjacent plots in a kaolinitic-oxidic oxisol. Half of the area was a long-term no-tillage system, while the other half was the same no-tillage system with the addition of one chisel plowing operation. The evaluations were performed after chiseling in 2009 and a year after the operation, in 2010. The chisel plow was effective in reducing soil compaction to the depth of 0.40 m (1.312 ft). The frequency of soil resistance to penetration values between 2,000 and 4,000 kPa (290.075 and 580.150 psi) was greater for the no-tillage system when compared to the chisel plow. The no-tillage plot had 70% of the soil resistance values between 2,000 and 4,000 kPa (290.075 and 580.150 psi), while the chisel plow plot had 57.3% of the soil resistance values below 2,000 kPa (290.075 psi). Logistic regression was effective in generating a probability map of susceptibility to compaction for the soil layer under evaluation.
Millennial temperature reconstruction intercomparison and evaluation

There has been considerable recent interest in pa- leoclimate reconstructions of the temperature history of the last millennium. A wide variety of techniques have been used. The interrelation among the techniques is sometimes unclear, as different studies often use distinct data sources as well as distinct methodologies. Here recent work is re- viewed and some new calculations performed with an aim to clarifying the consequences of the different approaches used. A range of proxy data collections introduced by different au- thors is used to estimate Northern Hemispheric annual mean temperatures with two reconstruction algorithms: (1) inverse regression and, (2) compositing followed by variance match- ing (CVM). It is found that inverse regression tends to give large weighting to a small number of proxies and that the second approach (CVM) is more robust to varying proxy in- put. The choice of proxy records is one reason why differ- ent reconstructions show different ranges. A reconstruction using 13 proxy records extending back to AD 1000 shows a maximum pre-industrial temperature of 0.25 K (relative to the 1866 to 1970 mean). The standard error on this estimate, based on the residual in the calibration period, is 0.14 K. Instrumental temperatures for two recent years (1998 and 2005) have exceeded the pre-industrial estimated maximum by more than 4 standard deviations of the calibration period residual.
Loneliness and Social Isolation: Risk Factors Long Overdue for Surveillance

Definition of Loneliness Some of the early definitions of loneliness characterized it as a lack of social intimacy or as a deficiency in social relationships. Loneliness is often described as a subjective feeling of isolation, not belonging, or lacking companionship. Steptoe et al contend that loneliness is frequently considered as “the psychological embodiment of social isolation. ” Other experts in this area define loneliness more explicitly as a distressing feeling associated with discrepancies between one’s desired and actual social relationships. The latter may help to explain how a person can feel lonely despite living with a spouse or other family members, or living with many other people in a community or institutional setting.
Shock Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through - An Analysis for Latin American Countries

This paper investigates the exchange rate pass through considering the source of the shocks that hit the economy. With a Bayesian Global VAR model, the exchange rate pass-through is analyzed for 5 Latin American countries: Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru. The model is estimated with Bayesian techniques and is identified by sign and zero restrictions. The BGVAR estimation enable us to allow spillover between countries mimicking the real conditions when the shocks hit the economies. Four domestic shocks for each Latin American countries are considered: an exchange rate shock, a risk premium shock, a monetary policy shock and a demand shock. The demand shock has the highest exchange rate pass-through for all the countries and the exchange rate shock has the lowest one. Additionally, two regional shocks are considered: a regional monetary policy shock, an event that all the region rises its interest rate and a regional risk premium shock, where the risk premium rises at the same time. For almost of the countries, the exchange rate pass-through coming from those regional shocks are lower than its domestic counterpart shock. Finally, we investigate two global shocks, an uncertainty shock and a global commodities/demand shock. The uncertainty shock decreases the economic activity and depreciates the exchange rate with a negative exchange rate pass-through in the middle term. The commodities/demand shock increases the economic activity and appreciates the exchange rate passthrough, having a negative or neutral exchange rate pass-through over the time.
Estimating fracture orientation from elastic-wave propagation: An ultrasonic experimental approach

[1] Elastic-wave propagation in fractured and cracked media depends on the dominant spatial orientation of the discontinuities. Consequently, compressional and shear-wave velocities can give valuable information about the orientation of the cracks. The main goal of this work is to estimate the preferential fracture orientation based on an analysis of cross-correlated S-wave seismograms and Thomsen parameters. For this purpose, we analyzed ultrasonic measurements of elastic (P and S) waves in a physical-modeling experiment with an artificially anisotropic cracked model. The solid matrix of the model consisted of epoxy-resin; small rubber strips simulate cracks with a compliant fill. The anisotropic cracked model consists of three regions, each with a different fracture orientation. We used the rotation of the S-wave polarizations for a cross-correlation analysis of the orientations, and P- and S-wave measurements to evaluate the weak anisotropic parametersγ and e.The shear and compressional wave sources had dominant frequencies of 90 kHz and 120 kHz. These frequencies correspond to long wavelengths compared to the spacing between layers, indicating a nearly effective-media behavior. Integrating the results from cross-correlation with anisotropic parameter analysis, we were able to estimate the fracture orientation in our anisotropic cracked physical model. Theγparameter showed good agreement with the cross-correlation analysis and, beyond that, provided additional information about the crack orientation that cross-correlation alone did not fully resolve. Moreover, our results show that the shear waves are much more strongly influenced by, and can thus contain more information about, crack orientation than compressional waves.
A SENSITIVITY AND ERROR ANALYSIS CF PROCEDURES USED FOR ESTIMATING EVAPORATION

ABSTRACT: Sensitivity and error analyses were used to examine the following objectives: (1) analyze the structure of commonly used evaporation models; (2) provide estimates of the effect of variation in meteorological factors on observed evaporation rates; and (3) estimate the effect of error in measurements of the meteorological factors. The results indicate error in evaporation estimates resulting from measurement error in meteorological factors is probably much less than five percent of the computer evaporation rate. Variation with both time and space of the importance of the different meteorological factors is demonstrated. The sensitivity analysis indicates that the Fractional-Evaporation Equivalent method is structurally inadequate and the Weather Bureau model is more flexible than the Penman model. However, the Penman model appears to provide more realistic estimates of the importance of the various meteorological factors.
Epidemiological and economic simulation of Salmonella control in the pork supply chain

Pork can be regarded as an important source for food borne salmonellosis. Salmonella bacteria can be introduced and spread in every stage of the pork supply chain and cause a risk for food safety. The objective of this research is to gain insight into the epidemiological and economic effects of different strategies in the finishing, transport, lairage and slaughtering stages to improve the food safety of pork with respect to Salmonella. To collect information on possible control measures and on details of the course of infection and contamination, a survey among 75 experts in the Netherlands and Denmark was carried out. Knowledge (both from experts and from literature) about the interaction and relations between the epidemiological and economic aspects was limited. Therefore, two separate models were designed, one for the epidemiological aspects and one for the economic aspects of Salmonella control in the pork supply chain. The epidemiological model to simulate the introduction and spread of Salmonella in the pork supply chain is a detailed stochastic state transition model. The economic model is a deterministic simulation model. For each control measure in the finishing to slaughtering stages, the costs and revenues have been calculated using the technique of partial budgeting. Since it is not feasible in practice to implement all possible control measures, for each stage a package of measures has been defined by selecting feasible measures. The net costs for these packages per stage were calculated per pig. In the finishing stage, the net costs for the control package are € 2.99, for the transportation stage € 0.65, for the lairage € 0.40 and for the slaughtering stage € 1.47. Combining the results of the epidemiological and the economic models allowed comparison of the cost-effectiveness of different control strategies for Salmonella in the pork supply chain. The research has revealed the importance of a chain approach instead of considering each stage individually. The effectiveness of Salmonella reduction depends on the efforts of all participants in a stage. A small number of poorly performing participants can disproportionately reduce the effectiveness of the efforts of the other participants. A payment system based on the Salmonella prevalence of the supplied animals or carcasses is a promising strategy to improve food safety. Strategic management principles have been applied to define aspects that are important for the design and implementation of a Salmonella control program in the entire pork supply chain. Two possible control programmes are described: a Food Safety Program and a Competitive Program.
Wind forced low frequency variability of the East Australia Current

A 62 year record of temperature and salinity from a coastal station off southeast Australia shows a strong positive trend and quasi‐decadal variability but the cause of the observed changes has not been explained. The temperature and salinity variations are highly correlated. The increase in temperature and salinity with time agrees closely with the mean meridional gradient of water properties along the continental slope, suggesting that changes in strength of the poleward extension of the East Australian Current are responsible for the observed variability. Interannual temperature and salinity changes are correlated (r = 0.7) with basin‐scale winds and with transport through the Tasman Sea estimated from Island Rule, with the changes at the western boundary lagging the wind forcing by three years. We conclude that the trend and decadal variability in the coastal temperature and salinity record reflect the response of the subtropical gyre and western boundary current to basin‐scale wind forcing.