Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.
DEEP SOIL MIXING FOR SEISMIC REMEDIATION OF THE CLEMSON UPPER AND LOWER DIVERSION DAMS

The Clemson Upper and Lower Diversion Dams are similar, random earthfill dams constructed in 1960-1961 to protect lands and facilities at Clemson University. Because of a loose silty sand / sandy silt alluvial foundation layer, the dams were susceptible to downstream liquefaction slope failures during or following the design earthquake (amax = 0.2g). The remedial design to prevent seismic instability consisted of deep-soil mixing along the downstream berm of each dam. The soil-mix elements were designed to form transverse shear walls oriented perpendicular to the dam axis which would carry the seismic loads in lieu of the weak soil layer and a longitudinal wall oriented parallel to the dam axis at the upstream end of the transverse walls which would assist in resisting the movement of soils between the transverse walls. Design of the soil-mix remediation addressed the feasibility of soil-mix, slope stability, dynamic behavior of the dam, anchorage of the soil mix walls, alternate failure surfaces, continuity of drainage, and quality assurance. Construction demonstrated that the use of soil mix shear walls to provide reinforcing of the loose soil against seismic deformations and liquefaction shear slides can be feasible and cost effective. Construction also provided lessons for future soil mix projects.
Thermomechanical state parameter models for sands

The granular structure of sands and other geomaterials makes them amongst the most difficult engineering materials to model. In this paper a recently developed thermomechanical procedure is used to derive constitutive models for sands undergoing triaxial deformations. The well-known geomechanical state parameter is given a new significance and is taken as the fundamental thermomechanical state parameter. The logarithm of the specific volume is shown to be the plastic volume strain, and its relationship to the logarithm of the effective pressure is shown to be fractal. In addition the shear-induced volume strains, characteristic of granular materials, are introduced via a workless constraint, and the resulting deformation is seen to exhibit ‘induced anisotropy' automatically. The associated reaction stress tensor is shown to be identical with the extant fabric tensor. The plastic flow rule is shown to be necessarily non-associated. Comparison with experimental data is made, together with some discussion of.
A safe data analysis environment for astronomical data centres

An endoscopic laser coagulator provides laser beam irradiation in an oblique direction relative to the axis of the insertion tube of the endoscope and includes an insertion tube having a leading end adapted to be introduced into the body and an elongate laser beam conducting fibre extending through the insertion tube. The laser beam conducting fibre is bent at a region proximate to the leading end of the insertion tube such that an oblique laser beam irradiation is obtained relative to the axis of the insertion tube.
Relationships between Benthic Activity and the Annual Phytopigment Cycle in Near-bottom Water and Sediments in the Southern North Sea

In this study, the annual cycle of phytoplankton input as a food source for benthic organisms into the sediments of the southern North Sea is described. Three stations across a frontal zone in the southern North Sea were visited in six different months in 1993. Surface, near-bottom water and sediment samples were taken in order to describe pelagic phytopigment concentrations and composition and to quantify and qualify phytopigment input in sediments. Further, sediment oxygen demand and growth of a deposit-feeding bivalve were determined in order to assess the benthic reaction to this phytopigment input. Although clear differences between the stations were observed, the ‘ classic ’ algal succession was found: diatoms were present in late winter/early spring (February/March) followed by a typical spring bloom (May) ofPhaeocystissp. , and lower chlorophyll aconcentrations during late summer and autumn. Phytopigment composition changed noticeably in summer and autumn. Algal families were dominated by prasinophytes south of the front and dinoflagellates north of the front. The highest overall input of algal matter into the sediment occurred at the station situated at the frontal zone. It is argued that the phytopigment signature originates mainly from ‘ local ’ primary production. While bivalve growth was highest during the spring and early summer when the concentrations of chlorophyll awere highest, bacterial activity increased with rising temperatures during mid and late summer and autumn. This temporal uncoupling of macrofaunal and bacterial processes indicates that macrobenthos rely more on ‘ locally ’ produced algal detritus and less on bacteria for growth, while bacterial production can be stimulated by material transported over relatively larger distances.
UNDERGROUND AND SURFACE GRAVITY SURVEY, LEADWOOD, MISSOURI

A surface gravity survey consisting of 214 stations covering approximately four square miles was conducted over and adjacent to the North Leadwood Mines at Leadwood, Missouri. A corresponding survey of 278 stations was carried out in the mine workings. A method of reducing underground gravity observations is outlined. The principal factors limiting the accuracy of the underground observations are given. Methods for determining rock densities are described. A comparison of the surface and underground gravity maps shows that major Precambrian knobs were revealed by both surveys. Smaller structures not shown on the surface map were revealed by the underground survey. Anomalous density areas between the level of the two surveys were easily located.
Improved GMTI-tracking using road-maps and topographic information

Tracking ground targets with airborne GMTI sensor measurements proves to be a challenging task due to high target density, high clutter, and low visibility. The exploitation of non-standard background information such as road maps and terrain information is therefore highly desirable for the enhancement of track quality and track continuity. The present paper presents a Bayesian approach to incorporate such information consistently. It is particularly suited to deal with winding roads and networks of roads. Key issues are: modeling the target dynamics in quasi one-dimensional road coordinates and mapping onto ground coordinates using linear road segments. The case of several, intersecting roads with different characteristics, such as mean curvature, slope, or visibility, is treated within an Interacting Multiple Model scheme. The iterative filter equations are formulated within a framework of Gaussian sum approximations on the one hand and a numerically exact Particle Filter approach on the other hand. Simulation results for single targets taken from a realistic ground scenario show strongly reduced target location errors compared to the case of neglecting road-map information. By using a realistic GMTI sensor model, early detection of stopping targets is demonstrated.
Hydraulic Jump in Sloping Channels

Experiments have been carried out to determine the streamwise variations of the mean flow properties of the hydraulic jump formed in sloping channels. Measurements of velocities have been made with hot-film anemometer for various Froude numbers of the flow. Strip integral method, with an assumption that the jump is a wall jet, is applied to determine the mean velocity field and the variation of depth along the jump. An empirical correction is made for the deviation of static pressures in the jump from hydrostatic pressures. Satisfactory agreement is found between the predicted and experimental results of the mean flow field. A body of data pertaining to the roller length collected by various investigators has been presented, and an explanation is provided for their scatter.
The Ising Model

The Ising Model is one of best developed models in statistical physics. Although it has been solved in one and two dimensions without the presence of an external magnetic field already 60 years ago there is still no solution to the three remaining cases: the two-dimensional model with an external magnetic field and the three-dimensional model with and without an external magnetic field. The aim of this report is not to study the physical relevance of the model (this has been done in Ref. [10]), but to review the famous approaches to the model and summarize some mathematical developments that should eventually lead to a solution of the 3-dimensional model. In the first section, the origins of the Ising Model [1] and some statistical physics are reviewed. In the second section, the Ising model will be introduced and the classical one-dimensional solution to it [4]. The third section is concerned with the two-dimensional Ising model: Peierls’ proof of the existence of the phase transition, a quick review of the Onsager solution [6], and two combinatorial derivations of the Onsager formula [5,8]. Finally, in the fourth section, we will report briefly on the development of the mathematical foundation for the three-dimensional model as proposed in References [9,11].
Influence of reed stem density on foredune development

Vegetation density on foredunes exerts an important control on aeolian sediment transport and deposition, and therefore on profile development. In a long‐term monitoring field experiment, three plots were planted with regular grids of reed bundles in three different densities: 4, 2 and 1 bundles per m2. This study reports on the differences in profile development under the range of vegetation densities.
Low-frequency amplitude analysis for oil detection within the Middle Jurassic sediments in the southern part of Western Siberia

AbstractThe structural element of a prospect is not a key factor in the detection of hydrocarbon deposits within the Jurassic formations of the southern parts of the West Siberian province. We investigated a method of mapping oil-saturated zones within the Middle Jurassic reservoirs. We evaluated the quantitative criteria between oil-saturated versus water-saturated zones. The methodology was based on amplitude analysis of seismic data and information obtained from the data and well testing.
The sunshine state: investigating external drivers of sky conditions

Following rapid population growth and urbanization in Florida, there is an increased demand for energy. The state currently gets more than 50% of its electricity from burning imported natural gas. As the future of fossil fuels is uncertain and their impact on climate has proven negative, one could expect great potential and interest in further developing the solar industry, which utilizes the most prominent of renewable energy sources in Florida. Solar energy production is dependent on the supply of clear skies and plentiful insolation. This paper seeks to explain variations in the number of clear sunny days by identifying the months with clearest (cloudiest) sky conditions during the years 1950–2009 in relation to some of the most dominant low frequency climate patterns of variability in the Northern Hemisphere. The hypergeometric distribution is used to test for significant association between the phases of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation, Pacific-North American, and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) and cloud cover in Florida. We find that ENSO and AMO significantly impact the occurrence of clear/cloudy skies with the warm phase of ENSO associated with cloudier conditions across much of the state and the warm phase of AMO bringing clearer conditions to northern stations.
Uncertainty in the construction of global knowledge of tropical forests

Knowledge of tropical forest change remains uncertain, affecting our ability to produce accurate estimates of globally aggregated parameters to support clear global statements about ‘the tropical forests’. This paper reviews current methods for constructing global knowledge of changes in tropical forest area, carbon density, biodiversity and ecosystem services. It finds a deficiency in formal institutions for global measurement and constructing global knowledge. In their absence, informal institutions have proliferated, increasing the spread of estimates. This is exacerbated by dependence on inaccurate official statistics, which has limited construction of knowledge about forest area change through modelling. Employing the new concept of the Knowledge Exchange Chain shows the interdependence of different disciplines in constructing composite information. Limitations linked to compartmentalization and scale are present, as predicted by the ‘post-normal hypothesis’. Disciplinary compartmentalization has impeded construction of information about forest carbon and biodiversity change. There is growth in interdisciplinary research into modelling forest change and estimating carbon emissions using remote sensing data, but not in studying biodiversity. Continuing uncertainty has implications for implementing the Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD) scheme. Uncertainty could be reduced by expanding formal scientific institutions, e.g. by establishing an operational scientific global forest monitoring system, and devising formal generic rules for constructing global environmental knowledge.
Mapping imperviousness using TM data in water resources reservation area of Shanghai

The rapid growth of impervious land covers within urbanizing regions holds many negative implications for environmental quality. The study region is the drinking water conservation areas of Shanghai, which is very important to the megalopolis. Mapping of imperviousness has shown important potentials to acquire such information in great spatial detail but the actual mapping process has been challenged by the heterogeneity of urban and suburb environment and the spatial and spectra capabilities of the sensor. This study focused on mapping the imperviousness fraction using linear spectral unmixing in the area from Landsat satellite remote sensing data. Development of high-quality fraction images depends greatly on the selection of suitable endmembers. A multi-endmemer linear spectral unmixing were evaculated. In the approach, each of the class hold multi-image-endmember representing the heterogeneity of them. The best fraction images were chosen to determine the imperviousness. An unconstrained least-squares solution was used to unmix the MNF components into fraction images. The multi-endmember linear spectral unmixing is then used to map imperviousness fraction for the years of 1987, 1997 and 2006 in upper region of Huangpu River, respectively. In the water resources reservation of Shanghai, the impervious surface area increases approximately 3 times from 1987 to 2002.
Polarimetric Doppler Weather Radar: Principles and Applications

1. Electromagnetic concepts useful for radar applications 2. Scattering matrix 3. Wave, antenna, and radar polarization 4. Dual-polarized wave propagation in precipitation media 5. Doppler radar signal theory and spectral estimation 6. Dual-polarized radar systems and signal processing algorithms 7. The polarimetric basis for characterizing precipitation 8. Radar rainfall estimation Appendices.
Parameterization of Mesoscale Eddies as Inferred from a High-Resolution Circulation Model

The compatibility of the Gent and McWilliams thickness mixing parameterization with perturbation thickness fluxes evaluated from eddy-resolving North Atlantic model results is investigated. After extensive spatial and temporal averaging, a linear correlation between the parameterized fluxes and those calculated directly from model fluctuations in the subtropics could be found. A direct estimate of a constant mixing parameter κ could be inferred in the order of 1.0 × 107 cm2 s−1.
Water Environment Management Model of the Reservoir and Case Study

Due to the rapid rise of the economy and population environment and resources are exposed to more and more pressures. The economy of the vicinities of the lakes and reservoirs all around of our nation is now going up quickly. And at the same time, the quality requirement of water grows while the supply of water is decreasing and exchanging. The pollution-acceptance capacity of water environment is reducing. What makes it worse is that the sewage discharge is up as that almost all of the lakes or reservoirs are not clean any more. Water conditions of the lakes and reservoirs is increasingly been deteriorated in our country. Prominent water pollution is urgent for scientific and effective water resource management, especially the security of drinking water for the people.
A Hybrid Dynamical–Statistical Downscaling Technique. Part I: Development and Validation of the Technique

AbstractIn this study (Part I), the mid-twenty-first-century surface air temperature increase in the entire CMIP5 ensemble is downscaled to very high resolution (2 km) over the Los Angeles region, using a new hybrid dynamical–statistical technique. This technique combines the ability of dynamical downscaling to capture finescale dynamics with the computational savings of a statistical model to downscale multiple GCMs. First, dynamical downscaling is applied to five GCMs. Guided by an understanding of the underlying local dynamics, a simple statistical model is built relating the GCM input and the dynamically downscaled output. This statistical model is used to approximate the warming patterns of the remaining GCMs, as if they had been dynamically downscaled. The full 32-member ensemble allows for robust estimates of the most likely warming and uncertainty resulting from intermodel differences. The warming averaged over the region has an ensemble mean of 2.3°C, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 1.
ARIMA-LP: A Hybrid Model for Air Pollution Forecasting with Uncertainty Data

Public health is seriously threatened by air pollution. Systems for early warning are crucial for preventing its negative impacts on humans. But predicting air quality is difficult because it needs precise data from time series gathered at air monitoring sites. Due to things like measurement mistakes, this data may be ambiguous. Using fuzzy symmetry triangular fuzzy numbers, we suggest a strategy in this study for preparing data that contains uncertain information. Linear programming is utilized to obtain the midpoint value for defuzzification. The fuzzy pre-processed data is then used to build a predictive model using ARIMA. Our findings imply that the linear program can greatly lower prediction errors, resulting in more precise predictions.
Representing the precipitation regime by means of Fourier series

We propose the use of Fourier series for representing the precipitation regime in a certain location and predicting it in ungauged locations, allowing for map production. We analyse monthly average precipitation data of 2043 gauging stations covering the Italian territory. The Fourier series allows to represent a curve as a sum of different sinusoidal components characterized by their period, amplitude and phase. Being the different harmonics not correlated, it is possible to fit them with stepwise multiple linear regressions. The Fourier series allows for a parsimonious representation of the regime, being usually the 12‐ and 6‐month harmonics able to reproduce the observed values with little residuals [in this exercise the fitting gave an average monthly root mean square error (RMSE) of 9.21 mm and a correlation coefficient of 0.979]. Once the at‐station harmonics parameters are obtained, it is possible to map them for predicting the regime in ungauged locations. Here we use ordinary kriging and the leave‐one‐out validation scheme for evaluating the amplitudes and phases of the harmonics of the 12‐ and 6‐month periods and reconstructing the precipitation regime. We use the same scheme for the interpolation of the station data on a month‐by‐month basis, whose results are used as a benchmark. The analyses provide similar results, with overall RMSEs of 17.53 and 15.97 mm and correlation coefficients of 0.909 and 0.921, respectively. The spatial patterns of the reconstruction error are similar for the two cases. The stations having higher RMSE are clustered in the areas presenting high precipitation gradients, such as in the Appennines, or where major precipitation regime changes occur. For demonstrating that the Fourier series approach is more suitable for regionalization purposes, a k‐means cluster analysis on the Fourier parameters was performed and the effect of such stratification on the mapping of the precipitation regime by applying regression kriging was assessed. Copyright © 2010 Royal Meteorological Society
Tropical Atlantic Influence on European Heat Waves

Abstract Diagnostics combining atmospheric reanalysis and station-based temperature data for 1950–2003 indicate that European heat waves can be associated with the occurrence of two specific summertime atmospheric circulation regimes. Evidence is presented that during the record warm summer of 2003, the excitation of these two regimes was significantly favored by the anomalous tropical Atlantic heating related to wetter-than-average conditions in both the Caribbean basin and the Sahel. Given the persistence of tropical Atlantic climate anomalies, their seasonality, and their associated predictability, the suggested tropical–extratropical Atlantic connection is encouraging for the prospects of long-range forecasting of extreme weather in Europe.
The first record of xiphosurid (arthropod) trackways from the Saltwick Formation, Middle Jurassic of the Cleveland Basin, Yorkshire

Trackways attributed to a xiphosurid (arthropod) maker are described for the first time from the Middle Jurassic Saltwick Formation, Ravenscar Group, of the Cleveland Basin, Yorkshire. The trackways are assigned to Kouphichnium aff. variabilis (Linck, 1949) and clearly demonstrate the heteropody and varied behaviour of the maker. Their occasional asymmetry indicates a slight rotation of the body relative to the direction of locomotion. The Saltwick Formation has generally been regarded as a coastal plain deposit, and the presence of xiphosurid tracks reinforces the suggestions of periodic marine influences.