Thawing permafrost and land-atmosphere interactions of boreal forest-wetland landscapes in northwestern Canada

Boreal forests store large amounts of organic carbon and are an important component of the regional and global climate systems. Climate and land surface are closely coupled through the land-atmosphere exchange of greenhouse gases, such as CO2 and CH4, and of energy and water vapor. In lowlands of the North American sporadic permafrost region, thaw-induced surface subsidence leads to expansion of permafrost-free wetlands at the expense of boreal forests underlain by permafrost. However, the spatial extent of these land cover changes and their implications for land-atmosphere interactions are unknown. In this study, I analyze eddy covariance flux measurements from an organic-rich boreal forest-wetland landscape in the southern Taiga Plains, NT, Canada. I combine these measurements with flux footprint modeling, satellite remote sensing data, paleoecological records, and downscaled climate projections to characterize how thaw-induced land cover change affects land-atmosphere interactions and climate. In the Taiga Plains ecozone, thaw-induced boreal forest loss currently transforms the composition and structure of the boreal zone in North America and is of equal importance for tree cover dynamics as wildfire disturbance. Forest loss modifies landatmosphere energy fluxes through changes in aerodynamic and ecophysiological land surface properties. On the one hand, increasing albedo decreases total turbulent energy fluxes (i.e., sensible (H) and latent heat (LE) flux), and on the other hand decreasing surface roughness and increasing wetness enhances LE at the expense of H. The resulting maximum summer air temperatures and humidity would be substantially colder (1-2 ◦C) and wetter (2 mmol mol-1) in a hypothetical permafrost-free wetland landscape, as indicated by planetary boundary layer model simulations. In contrast to the regional biophysical climate cooling impact of thaw-induced land cover change, wetland expansion and related increases in landscape CH4 emissions induce a net global biogeochemical climate warming impact. At the current rate of wetland expansion in the southern Taiga Plains of 0.26 % yr-1, landscape CH4 emissions increase by 0.034 g CH4 m -2 yr-1. Typical rates of long-term net CO2 uptake in these landscapes are too small to neutralize the associated climate warming effect until the end of the 21st century. The rapidly thawing boreal forest-wetland landscape still acts as a net CO2 sink taking up 74 g CO2 m -2 yr-1. Wetland expansion does not affect landscape-level net CO2 uptake as changes in gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER) are of similar magnitude. The negligible thaw-induced effects on net CO2 fluxes are contrasted by larger direct climate change impacts of warming air temperatures and reduced incoming shortwave radiation. For a high warming scenario (RCP8.5), increases in modeled ER outpace the increasing GPP significantly. For a moderate warming scenario (RCP4.5), ER and GPP increase are of similar magnitude. Thaw-induced land cover change in the Taiga Plains causes thus biophysical and biogeochemical climate impacts of opposite sign and at contrasting scales of impacts (regional vs. global). In an increasingly warmer climate, thawing permafrost alters how boreal landscapes interact with climate highlighting the need to incorporate thawinduced land cover changes into global Earth system models.