Exploring energy poverty perspectives in Senegal : the applicability of scenarios

Ghanadan and Koomey, 2004; Soontornrangson et al. 2003). Ghanadan and Koomey (2004) stress that explicit assumptions of the research should be made clear to all participants involved and concrete indicators, such as economic factors, should be included in the contextual narratives. As aforementioned, organizational culture with linear and hierarchal management and ingrained conventional planning based on historic trends poses a large threat to the successful use of scenarios since it may impede the creative process (Soontornrangson, 2003; Bunn and Salo, 1993). The recent publications of scenario use in the energy sector in Thailand, India, China, Mauritius, and California have made important contributions to furthering the understanding of the benefits and pitfalls of the tool in energy sector applications. However, despite repeated calls for detailed research into the efficacy of the technique, procedural analysis and inclusion of the voice of participants (Burt and van den Heijden, 2003; O'Brien, 2004; Hodgkison and Wright, 2002; Bunn and Salo, 1993), the literature remains deficient in these areas. The accounts of scenario use in the energy sector do not extensively discuss the procedural elements or mention the perceptions of the people involved. Scenarios were touted as a beneficial exploratory and analytical tool to explore energy choices and enhance organizational learning in California (Ghanadan and Koomey, 2004), yet a systematic analysis of the process, and comments on the ease of use, or the experiences of the participants were not included. The research by Weisser (2004) in Mauritius has made an important contribution to both energy poverty and scenario research, by stressing the importance of the link between energy needs for development, and the need for local, regional and national level involvement. The research strove to learn more about behavioural aspects and the interaction of the various factors involved with renewable energy options in relation to policy making through the use of scenario planning (Weisser, 2004); however the perceptions of the local people were not reflected in the synopsis. The use of scenarios in micro-level planning in India claims to take advantage of the fact that location specific characteristics, and local knowledge and experience can be included (Devadas, 2001). While this research did take steps to outline procedural steps of the research fiom a methodological perspective, the involvement of local stakeholders was not well documented. In order to determine the effectiveness of each step of the scenario process, it is helpful to know what ideas were generated and understand the perceptions of the actual participants. Detailed accounts of the use of scenarios in energy sector planning in economically poor countries are needed and the voices of the participants need to be included. Systematic analysis of the efficacy of the tool would benefit future practitioners of the increasingly utilized tool, by enabling further refinements to the procedures and methodological details (Cherrnack, 2004). The final results and evaluation also add credibility to the decision making process of organizations. A copious literature exists that review the benefits and weaknesses of the use of scenarios, yet a literature describing, critiquing and suggesting improvements to the processes is not readily available (Chermack, 2004). Analysis of failures is also important and to date has been very limited (see Hodgkison and Wright, 2002; Phelps et al., 2001). The recent support for the tool in organizational learning (van der Heijden, 2004, Schwartz, 1996) is encouraging, but supporting evidence is needed. The efforts by Chermack (2004) make an important contribution in detailing steps required as part of a process to determine whether scenarios can actually meet the various documented claims. This present study aims to provide an analytical account of the use of scenarios in the energy sector and contribute to the literature by including direct perspectives of participants, commenting on procedural elements and experiences, and commenting on the efficacy, simplicity and cost effectiveness of the tool.