Middle School Variables that Predict College Attendance for First-Generation Students.

Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study, this report examines eighth grade school variables that might predict college attendance for students whose parents have no college education (n = 2,521). The selected school variables are amenable to public policy and/or skilled leadership, and they include school structure (e.g., number of school days in an academic year), student statistics (e.g., attendance rate), atmosphere (e.g., seriousness of student problems), academic offerings (e.g., required year-long courses for core subjects), and teacher statistics (e.g., level of absenteeism). Controlling for students' sociodemographic characteristics and past academic achievement, multivariate logistic regressions show that higher teacher absenteeism in eighth grade lowers the odds of attending college for potential first-generation students. Many young people whose parents have no more than a high school education do not enroll in college. Recent statistics show that only 56% of them enroll in college by October following high school graduation; in contrast, the figure is 85% for those whose parents have at least a bachelor's degree (National Center for Education Statistics, 1999, Figure 3). It is important, however, for children of noncollege-educated parents to pursue higher education. A college education is positively correlated with earned income and negatively correlated with reliance on public assistance. Between 1989 and 1998, real income for workers with less than a bachelor's degree had generally been decreasing while real income for workers with at least a bachelor's degree had generally been increasing (National Center for Education Statistics, 2000, Table 386). At the same time, the percent of 25- to 34-year-olds who received income from public assistance programs was considerably higher for those who had earned only a high school degree than for those who had earned at least a bachelor's degree (National Center for Education Statistics, 1998, Table 34-1). Prior research on first-generation students has indeed shown that those who earn a college degree have labor market outcomes similar to those whose parents are college educated. Choy (2001) found that among those who earned a degree (associate's or bachelor's) or a certificate, first-generation students were generally distributed similarly among broad occupation groups as other students. In addition, Nunez and Cuccaro-Alamin (1998) reported that first-generation students who attained a bachelor's or associate's degree earned salaries comparable to their non-first-generation peers. Given the success that postsecondary education has on labor market outcomes for first-generation students, it is not surprising that researchers have focused on their persistence and graduation from college (Billson & Terry, 1982; Nunez & CuccaroAlamin, 1998; Pratt & Skaggs, 1989; Warbuton, Bugarin, & Nunez, 2001) or their experience while in college. For example, studies have examined their firstyear performance (Riehl, 1994); their cognitive development (Terenzini, Springer, Yaeger, Pascarella, & Nora, 1996); changes in their relationships with their families as a result of attending college (London, 1989); and familial, financial, and psychological challenges that they face (Zwerling & London, 1992). Only a couple of studies, however, have focused on what predicts whether they enroll in college in the first place. Using data from the National Education Longitudinal Study (NELS), which followed a sample from eighth grade in 1988 until eight years after high school in 2000, Choy (2001) examined relationships between characteristics of high school graduates in 1992 (e.g., race, parents' income, educational plans, aspirations, and qualifications) and their enrollment in postsecondary schools by 1994, which was two years after high school. Also using data from NELS, Horn and Nunez (2000) examined how these adolescents' enrollment in mathematics courses, college planning strategies, and support from parents and school personnel related to college enrollment by 1994, again two years after high school. …