Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?

Acknowledgments ix Preface xi Chapter 1: Quantifying the Unquantifiable 1 Chapter 2: The Ego-deflating Challenge of Radical Skepticism 25 Chapter 3: Knowing the Limits of One's Knowledge: Foxes Have Better Calibration and Discrimination Scores than Hedgehogs 67 Chapter 4: Honoring Reputational Bets: Foxes Are Better Bayesians than Hedgehogs 121 Chapter 5: Contemplating Counterfactuals: Foxes Are More Willing than Hedgehogs to Entertain Self-subversive Scenarios 144 Chapter 6: The Hedgehogs Strike Back 164 Chapter 7: Are We Open-minded Enough to Acknowledge the Limits of Open-mindedness? 189 Chapter 8: Exploring the Limits on Objectivity and Accountability 216 Methodological Appendix 239 Technical Appendix: Phillip Rescober and Philip E. Tetlock 273 Index 313
Development of a continuous process for EPDM devulcanization in an extruder

EPDM is de snelst groeiende synthetische rubber. Het is populair omdat het goed bestendig is tegen veroudering en gemakkelijk gevuld kan worden met verschillende soorten vulstof­fen. EPDM wordt toegepast in autobanden, bouwprofielen, slangen en isolatiekabels. Het is een copolymeer van Ethyleen en Propyleen met een Dieen als comonomeer en een Methy­leen-ruggengraat. Ondanks het feit dat het al in 1963 op de markt kwam, is is er nog weinig aandacht besteed aan de recycling ervan. Poppy Sutanto deed onderzoek naar een continu devulkanisatie-proces voor de recycling van EPDM in een dubbelschroefextruder. De resulaten van verschillende methoden werden vergeleken. De gerecyclede rubbers waren van iets minder kwaliteit dan het oorspronkelijke materiaal, maar zeker bruikbaar voor bepaalde toepassingen. Sutanto beveelt een vervolgstudie aan waarin vooral economische aspecten (kosten, verkoopprijs) centraal staan.
Russian to Tamil Machine Translation System at Tamil University

The computers as a tool to analyze, interpret, translate and disseminate information from one language to another is of tantamount importance in a multi-lingual and multi-cultural society like India. Besides being cheaper and faster, computer aided language tools like Machine Translation (MT) promotes the understanding of different languages and cultures. The main objective of this paper is to outline the role of Machine translation in information dissemination, a brief history of MT, MT strategies, various components and functions of an early MT system developed in Tamil University, Tanjore for Russian to Tamil translation. The paper also explores the complexities of Natural Languages(NL) with regard to MT and the possible solutions to resolve them using AI based techniques.
Structural Breaks and Regional Disparities in the Transmission of Monetary Policy

Using a regional VAR, we find large differences in the effects of monetary policy shocks across regions of the United States. We also find that the region-level effects of monetary policy differ a great deal between the pre-Volcker and Volcker-Greenspan periods in terms of their depth and length. The two sample periods also yield very different rankings of the regions in terms of the effects of monetary policy. Our regional VAR also suggests that aggregate VARs that ignore regional variations can suffer from severe aggregation bias. We use the results of our regional VAR to find evidence that recession depth related to the banking concentration and that the total cost of recession is related to the industry mix. Finally, we demonstrate that the differences between the two sample periods are due to changes in the mechanism by which monetary policy shocks are propagated.
Analysis about Amount and Ratio of Basal Fertilizer and Topdressing Fertilizer on Rice,Wheat,Maize in China

To keep synchrony between of nutrient demand and supply of soil and fertilizer is a key measure to improve fertilizer use efficiency of food crop.Based on statistic date and farmer survey data,amount and ratio of base and topdressing of nitrogen,phosphorus and potassium fertilizer on rice,wheat,maize in China were detailedly analysed.Amount and ratio of base and topdressing of six important fertilizer varieties filtered by percent of fertilization area and planting area were also discussed.Finally,some conclusions were put forward in this paper.It was proper to apply ratio of basal fertilizer and topdressing fertilizer according to local conditions,to reduce amount of basal fertilizer and to increase amount of topdressing fertilizer should be carried out in high fertility regions.As far as concerned nitrogen fertilizer,individual nutrient fertilizer varieties must be retained for phosphorus fertilizer and potassium fertilizer,compound and special techniques were used for meeting the different varieties of fertilizer.
The Impact of Electricity Consumption on Economic Growth in Malaysia: Evidence from ARDL Bounds Testing

This paper investigates the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Malaysia during the period 1971-2014 . The results from the ARDL bounds testing approach, as developed by Pesaran et al. (2001), showed that there was a cointegration between electricity consumption and real Gross Domestic Product ( GDP ). There was also a stable long-run relationship between other determinants such as foreign direct investment ( FDI ) and real GDP . Moreover, we found that electricity consumption, FDI , and real capital positively affected economic growth in the short-run. Therefore, it is recommended that policies should be geared towards improving current energy production and encouraging the exploration of alternative energy sources in order to promote growth in the Malaysian economy.
A Review of Spatial Analysis Procedures: An Application for Congenital Anomalies Registries

The function of epidemiology is to evaluate the distribution of diseases in a defined population and to determine the etiology and predisposing factors influencing the occurrence of diseases. Three main characteristics of epidemiologic investigations include "Time", "Place" and "Person". Exploring the role of "Place" on the occurrence of diseases is the main aspect of "Spatial Analysis". The first application of spatial analysis began in 1854 when Jon Snow used spot maps as the locations of cholera cases in London for investigation of cholera epidemic. He concluded that the water sources, as a place factor, might have caused the cholera outbreak. The findings were then implemented in the control of the epidemic in London.
Direct analysis of soils by ETV-ICP-AES: a powerful tool for mineral exploration

A fast method for the direct analysis of soils, namely solid sampling (SS) electrothermal vapourization inductively coupled plasma atomic emission spectrometry (ETV-ICP-AES), was validated through the accurate analysis of a soil standard reference material (SRM) using another soil SRM as a calibration standard and an Ar emission line as internal standard to compensate for sample loading effects on the plasma. Good agreement was obtained between the measured concentrations and certified values according to a Student’s t-test. The validated method was applied to the determination of the distribution of elements in depth profile soil samples from across the Talbot Lake VMS Cu-Zn prospect, in the Flin Flon-Snow Lake terrane, Manitoba, Canada. These profiles revealed that: Zn, P and Ag had anomalously high concentrations at 20–50 cm depth at 400 m, above where the easternmost part of the ore deposit is located along a 0–1000 m sampling line; Cu, Al, Ba, Pb and Hg were concentrated on the surface and at 40-cm depth mostly between 500 and 600 m; and Cl, Br and I were concentrated at depth at 400 m and over all depths at 600 m. As the geochemical anomaly is known to lie from 400 to 600 m, all these elements could be used to locate the ore. Good agreement was obtained with results by ICP mass spectrometry (ICP-MS) following aqua regia (AR) digestion, for those elements that could be determined by ICP-MS. In fact, not only is sample dissolution unnecessary but qualitative analysis by SS-ETV-ICP-AES is sufficient to obtain depth profiles, including for elements like Cl, which cannot be determined when AR is used for digestion.
miREnvironment Database: providing a bridge for microRNAs, environmental factors and phenotypes

UNLABELLED The interaction between genetic factors and environmental factors has critical roles in determining the phenotype of an organism. In recent years, a number of studies have reported that the dysfunctions on microRNA (miRNAs), environmental factors and their interactions have strong effects on phenotypes and even may result in abnormal phenotypes and diseases, whereas there has been no a database linking miRNAs, environmental factors and phenotypes. Such a resource platform is believed to be of great value in the understanding of miRNAs, environmental factors, especially drugs and diseases. In this study, we constructed the miREnvironment database, which contains a comprehensive collection and curation of experimentally supported interactions among miRNAs, environmental factors and phenotypes. The names of miRNAs, phenotypes, environmental factors, conditions of environmental factors, samples, species, evidence and references were further annotated. miREnvironment represents a biomedical resource for researches on miRNAs, environmental factors and diseases. AVAILABILITY http://cmbi.bjmu. edu.cn/miren. CONTACT cuiqinghua@hsc.pku. edu.cn.
PARTNERSHIPS IN EDUCATION: NETWORKS IN COMMUNITY

Australia 2 ABSTRACT The paper explores an attempt by a small team of staff within the School of Management at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) to transform the only postgraduate third sector management program offered in Australia, in response to powerful external pressures for change. After analysing the nature of these contextual imperatives for the transformation of the program, the paper outlines the rationale underpinning the new program and the 'intrapreneurial' process that accompanied its implementation. Thereafter the results of an evaluation of the transformed program, conducted after the first phase of strategic action, are presented, with specific attention given to an analysis of the politics of its implementation and the nature of the learning gained by the stakeholders of the program. The paper concludes with an attempt to relate the consequences of this initial phase of strategic action, within the new program, to social capital theory. 3 This paper explores an attempt the University of Technology Sydney (UTS) in Australia to transform its program in the management of third sector organisations in response to the profound social change brought about by globalisation. We begin with an analysis of the nature of the crisis faced by the program, the university, and managers in third sector organisations, and then offer a rationale for the strategic action taken by the Community Management Program (CMP) leadership team. This is followed by an evaluation of the first phase of the transformation process, including an analysis of the politics of implementation of the new program, and an analysis of the key learning gained by the community of participants, or primary stakeholders of the program, from their strategic action. We conclude with an attempt to review the results of this initial cycle of collaborative strategic action and learning within the specific frame of reference of social capital theory. Globalisation and, in particular, the emergence of a global economy dominated by powerful business corporations has transformed the global ideological climate. Fuelled by spectacular developments in technology, a process of global economic integration has led to the rise to dominance of corporate capitalism and the world wide disintegration of alternative systems. In 1989, the demolition of the Berlin Wall symbolised the demise of international communism/socialism; more recently, social democratic systems of governance in Western democracies have begun to crumble. The ideological convergence of economic and political institutions, particularly in the so-called developed world, is resulting in a …
Microvessel Density and Effects of Tamoxifen Comparison of Plasma , Serum , and Tissue VEGF and Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor ( VEGF ) in Breast Cancer : Updated

The assessment of angiogenesis in breast cancer is of importance as a key indicator of survival and response to therapy. Circulating vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) measurements may provide a less subjective analysis than microvessel density (MVD) or immunohistochemical analysis of VEGF expression; however, most studies have used serum, which is now known to largely reflect platelet-derived VEGF concentrations. This study examined for the first time both plasma (VEGFP) and serum (VEGFS) VEGF concentrations in 201 blood samples from preand postmenopausal healthy controls and from patients with benign breast disease, localized breast cancer, breast cancer in remission, or metastatic breast cancer and related these to other clinicopathological markers. VEGFP but not VEGFS concentrations of patients with localized disease were significantly elevated compared with normal controls ( P 5 0.016). Patients with metastatic disease had higher VEGF P and VEGFS levels than normal controls (P < 0.001, P 5 0.044 respectively), and higher VEGFP, but not VEGFS, than patients with benign disease (P5 0.009) and patients with localized disease (P5 0.004). However, the highest VEGFP and VEGFS concentrations were seen in patients in remission compared with normal controls (P < 0.001 andP 5 0.008, respectively). VEGFP concentrations in patients in remission were also higher than in patients with benign disease (P 5 0.01) or patients with localized disease (P 5 0.005). Tamoxifen treatment was significantly associated with higher circulating and platelet-derived VEGF levels. Circulating VEGF did not correlate with any clinicopathological factor, including MVD or VEGF expression. VEGF expression was significantly correlated with estrogen receptor status and inversely correlated with tumor grade. MVD correlated with tumor size. Tamoxifen-induced increases in VEGF may be important in clinical prognosis or associated pathologies.
ASSOCIATIONS BETWEEN STREAM FLOW AND CLIMATIC VARIABLES AT KIZILIRMAK RIVER BASIN IN TURKEY

This study aims to demonstrate the use of association analysis for discovering the relationships between stream flow and climatic variables in the Kizilirmak River Basin in Turkey. Association analysis is a data mining technique that aims to discover rules in the form of A∆B that may occur in large datasets with frequency above a given threshold. A and B can be defined as events of a certain type, with the rule if A occurs then B occurs. In this study, A refers to climatic variable(s) (i.e., precipitation, temperature, wind speed, relative humidity) of certain magnitude, and B refers to the magnitude of stream flow. The interesting rules were quantified using support and confidence measures. Stream-flow data from three gauging stations in the Kizilirmak River Basin and climate data from three weather stations in the same basin were included in the analyses. All data were first segregated into three groups that were named as low, medium, and high. Low and high ranges of stream-flow data were further divided into three to increase our focus on extreme events. The analyses were conducted at the annual and seasonal timescales. The analyses indicated that the relationships between precipitation and temperature and stream flow are most prevalent but, relative humidity and wind speed are also important determinants of stream flow in the Kizilirmak River Basin.
Research on Influencing Factors of Consumers ' Willingness to Purchase Fresh E-commerce Products Based on UTAUT Model

In the transactions of fresh e-commerce products, consumers' purchase intention also occupies an important position. Therefore, this study is based on the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology, combines the actual situation to construct the research model of the factors that influence the willingness of the consumers on buying fresh e-commerce products and designs a reasonable and accurate questionnaire for online investigation according to the existing literatures. Through empirical analysis, the results show that consumers' perception of risk significantly affect the willingness of consumers to buy fresh e-commerce products, the social influence does not significantly affect the willingness of consumers to buy fresh e-commerce products, and effort expectancy, impulsivity, performance expectancy of consumers have an effect on the intention to buy fresh e-commerce products. Finally, based on empirical results, this research gives several suggestions for fresh products e-commerce enterprises and government.
Development / Plasticity / Repair Pituitary Adenylate Cyclase-Activating Polypeptide Is Required for the Development of Spinal Sensitization and Induction of Neuropathic Pain

Tamaki Mabuchi,1* Norihito Shintani,2* Shinji Matsumura,1 Emiko Okuda-Ashitaka,1 Hitoshi Hashimoto,2 Tadatoshi Muratani,4 Toshiaki Minami,4 Akemichi Baba,2,3 and Seiji Ito1 1Department of Medical Chemistry, Kansai Medical University, Moriguchi 570-8506, Japan, 2Laboratory of Molecular Neuropharmacology, Graduate School of Pharmaceutical Sciences, and 3Laboratory of Molecular Pharmacology, Graduate School of Medicine, Osaka University, Suita 565-0871, Japan, and 4Department of Anesthesiology, Osaka Medical College, Takatsuki 569-8686, Japan
Serpentinization and magmatism during extension at non-volcanic margins: the effect of initial lithospheric structure

Abstract At several non-volcanic margins serpentinized peridotites occur within a wide continent-ocean transition (COT) and beneath the edge of the thinned continental crust. However, other margins such as the Woodlark Basin appear to have a sharp COT and no reported serpentinites. We investigate the thermal, magmatic and rheological evolution of margins during extension as a function of initial lithospheric structure, rift duration and stretching factor. For cratonic and old orogen models, the entire crust should become brittle at stretching factors c. 3–4. The resultant crust-cutting faults allow water to reach and serpentinize the mantle, leading to the development of serpentinite décollements at the crust-mantle boundary and exhumation of mantle at the COT. Our predictions are consistent with the spatial limit and thickness of serpentinites at the SW Greenland and West Iberia margins, and the Rockall Trough. They also explain the absence of a broad zone of unroofed, serpentinized mantle at the COT of the Woodlark Basin: here the crust was too thick and hot for serpentinites to form before break-up. Larger melt production than in the West Iberia type margins and concentration of the lithospheric strength in the crust leads to synchronous crustal separation and lithospheric failure, yielding a sharp COT.
University of Birmingham Real-time and non-invasive measurements of cell mechanical behaviour with optical coherence phase microscopy

10 Cell mechanical behaviour is increasingly recognised as a central biophysical parameter in cancer and 11 stem cell research, and methods of investigating their mechanical behaviour are therefore needed. 12 We have developed a novel qualitative method based on quantitative phase imaging which is 13 capable of investigating cell mechanical behaviour in real-time at cellular resolution using Optical 14 Coherence Phase Microscopy (OCPM), and stimulating the cells non-invasively using hydrostatic 15 pressure. The method was exemplified to distinguish between cells with distinct mechanical 16 properties, and transient change induced by cytochalasin D. 17 We showed the potential of qualitative phase imaging to detect nanoscale intracellular displacement 18 induced by varying hydrostatic pressure in microfluidic channels, reflecting cell mechanical 19 behaviour. Further physical modelling is required to yield quantitative mechanical properties.
Provenance of Australian food products: is there a place for Geographical Indications?

Geographical Indications of Origin (GIs) are a typically European form of IP protection for valuable provenance brands that to date has only been enshrined in Australian law in relation to wine. This report examines the potential advantages of the registration of food products other than wine. It especially canvasses the potential advantages of a food GI register from the perspective of regional economic development.
Parallel Computation of Entries of A-1

In this paper, we are concerned about computing in parallel several entries of the inverse of a large sparse matrix. We assume that the matrix has already been factorized by a direct method and that the factors are distributed. Entries are efficiently computed by exploiting sparsity of the right-hand sides and the solution vectors in the triangular solution phase. We demonstrate that in this setting, parallelism and computational efficiency are two contrasting objectives. We develop an efficient approach and show its efficacy by runs using the MUMPS code that implements a parallel multifrontal method.
GPR without a source by use of interferometry by multi-dimensional deconvolution

Interferometric methods are well known for retrieving the reflection response of a virtual source at a physical receivers location. The position of the sources does not have to be known for this. Interferometry by multidimensional deconvolution can even be used in dissipative media, and is therefore of interest for GPR applications. It gives an accurate estimation, both spatially and temporally, of the reflection response, and can especially be useful in monitoring applications and in cases where it is not possible to place a source for GPR measurements. The reflection response due to a virtual source at a receiver position can be retrieved using band-limited synthetic noise with a centrum frequency around the mobile phone frequency.
Petrography of Finely Crystalline Cenozoic Dolostones as Revealed by Backscatter Electron Imaging: Case Study of the Cayman Formation (Miocene), Grand Cayman, British West Indies

ABSTRACT Finely crystalline Cenozoic island dolostones, like those found in the Cayman Formation on Grand Cayman, are commonly assumed to be petrographically and compositionally homogeneous. Backscatter electron images (BSEI), however, show that the constituent dolomite crystals (3 content. Moreover, such images allow (1) depiction of growth patterns in the constituent crystals, irrespective of their origin, (2) recognition of replacive dolomite as opposed to dolomite cement, and (3) delineation of "stratigraphic packages" in the dolomite cements that reflect different episodes of cementation. Integration of this information forms the basis for paragenetic interpretations of the dolostones. On Grand Cayman, the Miocene Cayman Formation can be divided into friable, high-porosity dolostones and hard, low-porosity dolostones. Backscatter electron images show that the hard dolostones are characterized by complex arrays of zoned dolomite cements that have occluded most of the pores. Caymanite, an internal sediment, has occluded many of the larger cavities. In contrast, the high-porosity dolostones contain little cement and no internal sediments. Precipitation of the cements and the deposition of internal sediments were related to the passage of large volumes of water through some of the dolostones. Thus, the hard, low-porosity dolostones are found in the "cap rock" of the formation, in coastal locations, and in areas close to solution-widened fractures. Conversely, the friable, high-porosity dolostones form the lower "porous unit" of the formation in the interior of the island, where the passage of water was more restricted.