Census Tract-Level Outdoor Human Thermal Comfort Modelling and Heat-Related Morbidity Analysis During Extreme Heat Events in Toronto: The Impact of Design Modifications to the Urban Landscape

CENSUS TRACT-LEVEL OUTDOOR HUMAN THERMAL COMFORT MODELLING AND HEAT-RELATED MORBIDITY ANALYSIS DURING EXTREME HEAT EVENTS IN TORONTO: THE IMPACT OF DESIGN MODIFICATIONS TO THE URBAN LANDSCAPE Andrew Aaron Graham Advisor: University of Guelph, 2012 Dr. Robert D. Brown The urban landscape-heat-health relationship was explored using a model of human thermal comfort (as energy budget) modified to incorporate varying urban landscape. Census Tract-level energy budget was modelled in Toronto during four extreme heat events. Energy budgets (~+80 W m) and heat-related ambulance calls (~+10%) increased during heat events and were positively correlated, albeit with some event-toevent fluctuation in relationship strength. Heat-related calls were negatively correlated to canopy cover. “Cooling” design strategies applied to two high-energy budget Census Tracts nearly neutralized (~–25 W m) thermal comfort and increased canopy cover (500–600%), resulting in an estimated 40–50% reduction in heat-related ambulance calls. These findings advance current understanding of the urban landscape-heat-health relationship and suggest straightforward design strategies to positively influence urban heat-health. This new high-throughput, Census Tract-level thermal comfort modelling methodology incorporates the complexities of the urban landscape has relevance to landscape architecture, urban design, and public health. iii Acknowledgements I received unwavering support and encouragement from a number of people throughout my studies. Nadine (and the issue), the past two years have been a blur and I’m sure that life won’t slow down any time soon. And that’s okay, as long as you remain in clear focus. You are my ground. To my family, thank-you for being nothing but 100% encouraging of my change in direction that may have appeared somewhat drastic at first. Your continual interest in my endeavours (academic and not) has been so important to me. Bob, I am so grateful for you. I have yet to hear you utter a negative comment about anything and this outlook on the world has influenced me profoundly. I look forward to continuing my work and friendship with you. Jenni, Natasha, and Rob, your ever-willing provision of advice, support, critique, and direction have been essential to me. Even before applying to the program, all three of you encouraged me to pursue an MLA and I am indebted to you for this. Fellow MLA 2013ers, I can’t imagine a better group of future colleagues with whom to spend 2 years of studio life. I am so proud to be able to consider you my peers. Mary Van Soren and Jo-Ann Vickers, thank-you for providing such an interesting landscape architecture–nursing collaboration. Thank-you to Toronto Emergency Medical Services for providing the EMS call data for this thesis. Thank-you to the Ontario Student Assistance Program (Ontario Graduate Scholarship), the Ontario Agricultural College, the School of Environmental Design and Rural Development, and the Landscape Architecture Alumni for providing funding.