An investigation of deformation and fluid flow at subduction zones using newly developed instrumentation and finite element modeling

Detecting seafloor deformation events in the offshore convergent margin environment is of particular importance considering the significant seismic hazard at subduction zones. Efforts to gain insight into the earthquake cycle have been made at the Cascadia and Costa Rica subduction margins through recent expansions of onshore GPS and seismic networks. While these studies have given scientists the ability to quantify and locate slip events in the seismogenic zone, there is little technology available for adequately measuring offshore aseismic slip. This dissertation introduces an improved flow meter for detecting seismic and aseismic deformation in submarine environments. The value of such hydrologic measurements for quantifying the geodetics at offshore margins is verified through a finite element modeling (FEM) study in which the character of deformation in the shallow subduction zone is determined from previously recorded hydrologic events at the Costa Rica Pacific margin. Accurately sensing aseismic events is one key to determining the stress state in subduction zones as these slow-slip events act to load or unload the seismogenic zone during the interseismic period. One method for detecting seismic and aseismic strain events is to monitor the hydrogeologic response to strain events using fluid flow meters. Previous instrumentation, the Chemical Aqueous Transport (CAT) meter which measures flow rates through the sediment-water interface, can detect transient events at very low flow-rates, down to 0.0001 m/yr. The CAT meter performs well in low flow rate environments and can capture gradual changes in flow rate, as might be expected during ultra slow slip events. However, it cannot accurately quantify high flow rates through fractures and conduits, nor does it have the temporal resolution and accuracy required for detecting transient flow events associated with rapid deformation. The Optical Tracer Injection System (OTIS) developed for this purpose is an electronic flow meter that can measure flow rates of 0.1 to >500 m/yr at a temporal resolution of 30 minutes to 0.5 minutes, respectively. Test deployments of the OTIS at cold seeps in the transpressional Monterey Bay demonstrated the OTIS functionality over this range of flow environments. Although no deformation events were detected during these test deployments, the OTIS's temporally accurate measurements at the vigorously flowing Monterey Bay cold seep rendered valuable insight into the plumbing of the seep system. In addition to the capability to detect transient flow events, a primary functional requirement of the OTIS was the ability to communicate and transfer data for long-term real-time monitoring deployments. Real-time data transfer from the OTIS to the desktop was successful during a test deployment of the Nootka Observatory, an acoustically-linked moored-buoy system. A small array of CAT meters was also deployed at the Nootka transform-Cascadia subduction zone triple junction. Four anomalous flow rate events were observed across all four meters during the yearlong deployment. Although the records have low temporal accuracy, a preliminary explanation for the regional changes in flow rate is made through comparison between flow rate records and seismic records. The flow events are thought to be a result of a tectonic deformation event, possibly with an aseismic component. Further constraints are not feasible given the unknown structure of faulting near the triple junction. In a final proof of concept study, I find that use these hydrologic instruments, which capture unique aseismic flow rate patterns, is a valuable method for extracting information about deformation events on the decollement in the offshore subduction zone margin. Transient flow events observed inthe frontal prism during a 1999-2000 deployment of CAT meters on the Costa Rica Pacific margin suggest episodic slow-slip deformation events may be occurring in the shallow subduction zone. The FEM study to infer the character of the hypothetical deformation event driving flow transients verify that indeed, a shallow slow-slip event can reproduce the unique flow rate patterns observed. Along (trench) strike variability in the rupture initiation location, and bidirectional propagation, is one way to explain the opposite sign of flow rate transients observed at different along-strike distances. The larger question stimulated by this dissertation project, is: What are the controls on fault mechanics in offshore subduction zone environments? It appears the shallow subduction zone plate interface doesn't behave solely in response to frictional properties of the sediment lining the decollement. Shallow episodic slip at the Costa Rica Pacific margin and further north off Nicaragua, where a slow earthquake broke through the shallow 'stable-sliding' zone and resulted in a tsunami, are potentially conceived through the normally faulted incoming basement topography. Scientists should seek to map out the controls of faulting mechanics, whatever they may be, at all temporal and spatial scales in order to understand these dynamic subduction zone systems. The quest to understanding these controls, in part, requires the characterization of aseismic and seismic strain occurring over time and space. The techniques presented in this dissertation advance scientists' capability for quantifying such strains. With the new instrumentation presented here, long-term real- time observatory networks on the seafloor, and modeling for characterization of deformation events, the pieces of the subduction zone earthquake cycle puzzle may start to come together