Implication of national policy on electricity distribution system planning in Kenya

The electricity distribution industry is highly capital intensive and involves investments of hundreds of millions of dollars. The developers of electricity distribution systems have to make investment decisions for an uncertain future. The investment has to meet various requirements, including flexibility, reliability and capacity for growth, and still yield an economic return. The decisions made in the planning and design stages determine how effectively these needs will be met. Traditionally, the choice of a particular planning solution is determined by performing network analysis to assess when the power flows in a circuit or substation exceed designated capacities and then calculating the economic and financial implications associated with each possible solution. The solution that provides the optimum cost (i.e. provides the minimum economic and financial impact) would then be selected. Mitigating the electricity distribution planning problems in this manner usually ends up in underlover utilisation and unplanned development which results in high losses and costs, inadequate network capacities, poor system reliability, voltage and power quality problems etc, since the technical benefits are not given adequate considerations. Thus this research project proposes a multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) method of electricity distribution system planning based on the Simple Multi-Attribute Rating Technique (SMART) embedded in a 'bottom-up' planning process to investigate the implication of National Policy (Kenya Vision 2030) on distribution system planning in Kenya. This approach differs from the traditional optimization approaches used in Kenya which typically assesses alternative planning solutions by finding solutions with minimum total cost. Instead a separate capital cost is calculated for each solution, this ensures that the Michael J. Saulo SLXMIC005 Un ive rsi ty of Ca pe To wn v technical benefit of each solution is not obscured by the associated solution capital cost. By comparing the cost of each solution with the capital investment budget a most desirable solution can be determined. It is also in contrast to most utility planning procedure (e.g. Kenya Power Sector) where emphasis is on Generation and Transmission network expansions and sometimes location of substations to minimize the transmission network costs. Specifically the approach allows for effective planning by starting the planning process from the distribution system upward. This means system requirements are worked out in upward direction, from identification of distribution network reinforcement/expansions, substation augmentations and new substations to meet distribution system requirements and transmission line development to meet substations requirements, all of which converge on the final national policy objective. The key benefit of this approach is the ability to make strategic planning decision relating to the whole distribution network and also individual planning problems, this gives an overall microscopic view of all the network problems and the planned projects within the planning horizon period, which makes it easy to prioritize projects accordingly. In other words, it can be said that the proposed methodology seeks a soh.iiion that provides techno-economic optimization and at the same time meeting environmental criteria. Finally, the Research project concludes by proving the validity of the hypothesis that states; 'The traditional optimization planning approaches used in electricity distribution in Kenya when subjected to a planning methodology within multiple criteria decision making technique and embedded in a 'bottom-up' planning process, allows for better decision making resulting in a more likely possibility of achieving Vision 2030 objectives'. Michael,. Saulo SLXMICOOS Un ive rsi ty of Ca pe To wn VI TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARA TION . ii DEDICATION . iii ABSTRACT. II ••••• II II II ••••• II •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• II •••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••• II II II II II II II II' iv TABLE OF CONTENTS . vi ACKN"OWLEDGMENT . xi ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS . xii CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION . 1 1.1 Overview of the Research . 1 1.2 The Background of Kenya Vision 2030 . 2 1.3 Research Hypothesis . 6 1.3. 1 Research Questions . 6 1.4 Research Methodology . 7 1.5 Rationale of the Research . 8 1.6 Structure of the Thesis . 9 1.7 Onward . 10 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW . 12 2.