Sequential Logistic Regression: A Method to Reveal Subtlety in Self-Efficacy

This paper uses self-efficacy to predict the success of women in introductory physics. We show how sequential logistic regression demonstrates the predictive ability of self-efficacy, and reveals variations with type of physics course. Also discussed are the sources of self-efficacy that have the largest impact on predictive ability. Over recent decades, bachelor’s degrees in physics have lagged behind the numbers being awarded in other fields. The latest American Institute of Physics poll found that only 2% of all science, math, engineering, and natural science bachelor’s degrees were awarded in physics (Mulvey & Nicholson, 2007). Specifically, women only make up about 21% of all of the physics bachelor’s degrees awarded (Mulvey & Nicholson, 2007). In order to remain a thriving field in science, physics educators need to focus their attention on increasing the representation of all students in physics, as well as the participation of women. Equity in science literature shows that trying to understand why women are not persisting in physics is not a new area of inquiry for science educators. Researchers in physics education have focused on characterizing the gender gap on conceptual understanding assessments in physics (Blue & Heller, 2003; Hake, 2002; Kost, Pollock, & Finkelstein, 2009; Robertson, 2006) and ameliorating this gender gap (Brewe et al., 2010; Lorenzo, Crouch, & Mazur, 2006; McCullough, 2004). However, since the late 1980’s, there has been a shift in the science education literature toward focusing on creating gender inclusive classrooms (Baker, 2002). Another line of research suggests that self-efficacy may provide a predictive link between confidence in ability and success in the science classroom. Science self-efficacy has been linked to persistence in science majors and career choices in science as well as achievement (Andrew, 1998; Dalgety & Coll, 2006; Lent, Brown, & Larkin, 1986, 1987, 1989; Luzzo et al., 1999; Pietsch, Walker, & Chapman, 2003). These studies indicate that examining the details of selfefficacy may provide a mechanism for understanding why some students, particularly women, persist in the sciences while others do not. Self-Efficacy Bandura (1977) defined self-efficacy to be the beliefs in one’s ability to perform a specific task, emphasizing the specificity of the task. According to Bandura’s (1997) social cognitive theory, an individual’s self-efficacy is derived from interpreting information from four experiential sources. The first, and Bandura theorized the most influential, source of selfefficacy is that of personal mastery experiences (ME). Experiences where an individual successfully completes a task would have a positive impact on self-efficacy, while repeated failures would have a negative influence. The second source, vicarious learning experiences (VL), is characterized by observing another person modeling a similar task to the one being considered. Observing someone else’s success and/or failure is particularly important when the individual has little to no experience with the task. The third source, social persuasion experiences (SP), comes from messages from society, parents, or instructors. These messages, Bandura argued, are particularly influential for people who already believe themselves capable