Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Introduction to Rare-Event Predictive Modeling for Inferential Statisticians - A Hands-On Application in the Prediction of Breakthrough Patents

Recent years have seen a substantial development of quantitative methods, mostly led by the computer science community with the goal to develop better machine learning application, mainly focused on predictive modeling. However, economic, management, and technology forecasting research has up to now been hesitant to apply predictive modeling techniques and workflows. In this paper, we introduce to a machine learning (ML) approach to quantitative analysis geared towards optimizing the predictive performance, contrasting it with standard practices inferential statistics which focus on producing good parameter estimates. We discuss the potential synergies between the two fields against the backdrop of this at first glance, \enquote{target-incompatibility}. We discuss fundamental concepts in predictive modeling, such as out-of-sample model validation, variable and model selection, generalization and hyperparameter tuning procedures. Providing a hands-on predictive modelling for an quantitative social science audience, while aiming at demystifying computer science jargon. We use the example of \enquote{high-quality} patent identification guiding the reader through various model classes and procedures for data pre-processing, modelling and validation. We start of with more familiar easy to interpret model classes (Logit and Elastic Nets), continues with less familiar non-parametric approaches (Classification Trees and Random Forest) and finally presents artificial neural network architectures, first a simple feed-forward and then a deep autoencoder geared towards anomaly detection. Instead of limiting ourselves to the introduction of standard ML techniques, we also present state-of-the-art yet approachable techniques from artificial neural networks and deep learning to predict rare phenomena of interest.
Universitet How Similar are European Business Cycles ?

In this paper, we focus on how European economic integration has affected the synchronization and the magnitude of business cycles among participating countries. We measure, based on bandpass filtered data, the characteristics of European business cycles analyzing to what extent they have become more similar over time. We also consider the role of other factors such as differences in fiscal and monetary policy, border effects, and trade intensity. Our main finding is that European business cycles are highly synchronized, although we also find that synchronization was higher during periods with highly flexible exchange rates. In addition we find a positive tradeoff between timing and magnitude such that more synchronization coincides with larger relative magnitude. These results raise concern about the consequences of a common monetary policy within EMU. JEL Classification: E32, F15
How do Innovation Vouchers Influence Senior Managers’ Attitudes to Innovation?

Senior manager innovation-orient ated attitudes are key drivers of innovation within smaller firms. Despite this , little is known about the factors that determine the nature of s nior managers’ innovation-orientated attitudes. In this paper, we investigate whether innovation vouchers, a form of public inn ovation support predominately provided to micro and small er firms, positively affects senior manager s’ innovation-orient ated attitudes . To examine this, we use propensity score nearest neighbour matching on a U.K. dataset of firms that received an innovation voucher between 2012 and 2015, and a control group of those that did not . Overall, we find that innovation vouchers have a small positive effect on senior managers’ support for innovation, risk tolerance, willingness to change, and openness to external knowledge . The largest impact is observed on senior managers’ risk tolerance, followed closely by their openness to external knowledge . Our findings suggest that innovation vouchers are an effective mechanism to induce small improvements in senior managers’ innovation-orientated attitudes. We discuss implications for innovation policy and practice.
University of Dundee Replication confirms the association of loci in FOXE 1 , PDE 8 B , CAPZB and PDE 10 A with thyroid traits

Objective: Replication of associations in genome-wide association studies (GWAS) is desirable to ensure that such signals are potentially clinically meaningful. This study aimed to replicate associations of selected single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with hypothyroidism and serum thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) using electronic medical records (EMRs). Methods: A cross-sectional study was done among patients of European Caucasian ethnicity from the Genetics of Diabetes Audit and Research Tayside (GoDARTS) recruited in Tayside (Scotland, UK). EMRs (biochemistry, prescribing, hospital admissions and demographics) were used to ascertain patients with hypothyroidism and their controls as well as average serum TSH concentration, and linked to genetic biobank data. Genetic tests of association were performed by means of logistic and linear regression models. Results: We analysed 1,703 cases of hypothyroidism and 9,457 controls. All four SNPs located on chromosome 9 at FOXE1 were associated with hypothyroidism with similar effect estimates (OR= 0.750.76, P<5e-08). Also loci on chromosomes 1 (PTPN22), 6 (HLA-E/HLA-C) and 12 (SH2B3) were replicated. For serum TSH we confirmed twelve SNPs previously reported at PDE8B, CAPZB, PDE10A, LOC105371356, NR3C2, VEGFA, IGFBP5, INSR, PRDM11, NFIA, ITPK1, and ABO. Overall, these SNPs accounted for 6.8% of the serum TSH variation (P<1e-04). Conclusions: EMRs linked to genomic data in large populations allows validation of GWAS discoveries without additional genotyping costs. Our replication confirmed at genome-wide significance the association of loci at FOXE1 with hypothyroidism, and PDE8B, CAPZB and PDE10A with serum TSH. Twelve SNPs seemed to explain nearly 7% of the serum TSH variation.
Effect of nonlinearities on actuation of a smart Cantilever beam

Considering as an electro-mechanical continuum and obtaining the variational form for smart cantilever beam with full length ferroelectric patch brazed at the upper and lower side of host aluminum core using higher order beam bending theory. The effect of nonlinearities viz body force in the equilibrium equation and non linear term in constitutive equation due distributed body couple introduced in basic formulation because of polarization and electric field coupling is analyzed for the case of actuation. The results indicate nonlinearities show a significant influence for higher values of actuation voltages.
ACCOUNTABILITY IN EU DECISION-MAKING AT THE NATIONAL LEVEL: LOST IN THE MULTI-LEVEL SETTING?

This article considers accountability in decision-making on EU affairs at the Slovenian national level from the constitutional and democratic perspectives. Its scope is limited to the coordination of EU affairs and the formation of national positions on selected legislative proposals of the European Commission, with an emphasis on scrutiny over the executive by National Assembly and civil society organisations (CSOs). It further argues that, in the case of Slovenia, we can determine established accountability arrangements which are accompanied by a dysfunctional accumulation of a range of accountability mechanisms: a bias in favour of the executive power; exclusion of CSOs from the process of EU decision-making at the national level; and passiveness on the part of the National Assembly and CSOs.
Local Sports Sentiment and the Returns and Trading Behavior of Locally Headquartered Stocks : A Firm-Level Analysis

We undertake firm-level analysis of the relation between National Football League (NFL) game outcomes and the return patterns and trading behavior of Nasdaq firms headquartered in the same geographic areas as the NFL teams. We find that losses by local teams lead to lower next-day returns for locally headquartered stocks, especially when losses are in succession and investors are more bearish. The negative effects of game losses are stronger for stocks that are more vulnerable to shifts in sports sentiment. Game losses influence next-day returns negatively only at the market open, however. Consistent with this finding, game losses are associated with more seller-initiated trades and reduced market depth at the market open. Game losses also lead to lower trading volume during the opening period, especially for individual traders, who are most likely to be influenced by sports sentiment.
Collaborative and Competitive E-negotiations : An Analysis of Communication Modes on Concessions

It is often said that: “communication is key”. This is especially true in negotiations. As negotiators exchange information, through offers and/or messages, they inadvertently or purposefully reveal their preferences, intentions and even social perspectives to each other. The information revealed can be constructive by helping parties arrive at a mutually favorable solution, or it can be destructive by contributing to conflict escalation and communication breakdown. This study examines the different communication features of an ENS, in terms of information presentation as offers and/or messages, used by negotiators with different social motivations. Specifically, we look at how collaborative and competitive dyads negotiate with offers, offers with messages and message communication on a multi-issue case, in a laboratory setting. Our findings suggest that collaborators who use offers are more likely to make destructive concessions, but messages leads to integrative concessions. However, competitors who focused on messages are more prone to make destructive concessions, and communication based on offers with messages allows for integrative concessions.
Adaptive Carrier Sense with Enhanced Fairness in IEEE 802 . 15 . 4 Wireless Networks

We propose an adaptive carrier sense (CS) scheme with enhanc ed fairness based on the observation that conventional adaptive CS mechanisms may lead to signifi ca t unfairness. Our experiments with an IEEE 802.15. 4 testbed show that the proposed algorithm sign ifica tly improves fairness while providing competitive throughput performance. Index Terms Physical carrier sense, fairness, CSMA wireless networks, localized algorithm.
Longitudinal and Transverse Target Correlation Asymmetries in Wide Angle Compton Scattering

We propose an experiment to measure the initial state helicity correlation asymmetries A LL in Real Compton Scattering (RCS) by scattering longitudinally polarized photons from a longitudinally (A LL ) polarized proton target at two photon energies 4 GeV (s = 8 (GeV/c)2) and 8 GeV (s = 15 (GeV/c)2) for the same scattering angle of θcm γ =90 ◦. We also propose scattering longitudinally polarized photons from a longitudinally (A LL ) and transversely (ALS) polarized proton target at photon energy of 8 GeV (s = 15 (GeV/c)2) at θcm γ =120 ◦. This experiment could potentially run in the same block of polarized target experiment with E12-13-011, E12-14-006 and E12-15-005 to make use of the very similar target setup already in place. Two JLab RCS experiments, E99-114 and E07-002, demonstrated the feasibility of the experimental technique. Our experiment uses an untagged pure photon beam and the UVA/JLAB polarized target. The pure photon beam adds considerable photon intensity and reduction of overhead required for polarized target maintenance. The scattered photon is detected in the future NPS. The coincident recoil proton is detected in the Hall C magnetic spectrometer HMS. Calculations by G. A. Miller in a constituent quark model reproduced the lower s = 6.9 GeV2 K LL experimental result but revealed a large disagreement with the GPD prediction for A LL . It is but one of the goals of our proposal to test this prediction which could force a modification of our understanding of the high-t photo-induced processes such as RCS, pion photoproduction, and deuteron photo–disintegration. A measure of A LL and the conclusions that can be drawn from the results would give insight into understanding quark orbital angular momentum in the proton. The higher s = 7.8 GeV2 K LL experimental result does not compare to any predictions. This surprising result seems to indicate that K LL does not have significant variation over change in s or center of mass angle. We propose to study further the cause of this extraordinary result by staying strictly within the domain of kinematics applicable to the Handbag approach and studying the s and θcm γ dependence for both longitudinal and transverse target observables. We request 835 hours of 3 μA at 4.4 GeV and 8.8 GeV electron beam energies to measure the polarization observables A LL and ALS to a statistical accuracy better than 5%. This measurement will significantly increase the available experimental information needed to move the GPD approach forward on RCS, one of the most fundamental processes.
GACP 2 nd YEAR PROGRESS REPORT 1 Proposal Title : Top-of-Atmosphere Clear-Sky Broadband Radiative Flux and Direct Aerosol Radiative Forcing from Satellite Measurements Investigators :

GOALS The accuracy of satellite-derived estimates of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) aerosol radiative forcing (natural + anthropogenic) depends critically on the accuracy of shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) TOA radiative fluxes. Since satellites cannot directly measure flux instantaneously, assumptions are needed to account for the angular and spectral dependence of the radiation field to convert a radiance measurement to a flux estimate. If these assumptions are incorrect, they will lead to errors in TOA radiative flux, and hence, aerosol radiative forcing. In this investigation, aerosol radiative forcing over ocean from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instrument and from theoretical broadband radiative transfer model calculations are compared. The first part of this investigation involves the development of new angular distribution models (ADMs) for converting observed broadband radiances to fluxes over cloud-free oceans. Fluxes obtained using the new ADMs are then compared with fluxes from broadband radiative transfer model calculations initialized using coincident aerosol and sea-state parameters based on imager and microwave retrievals over each CERES footprint. To determine aerosol radiative forcing from CERES, an approach similar to that outlined in Haywood et al. (1999) is used. The aerosol radiative forcing (or aerosol direct radiative effect) is obtained from the difference between a no-aerosol flux deduced from a radiative transfer model and the diurnally averaged regional flux determined by CERES.
Wafer-scale manufacturing of robust trimorph bulk SMA microactuators

This paper demonstrates the concept of wafer-level fabrication and integration of robust bulk SMA microactuators based on adhesive bonding of cold-rolled SMA sheets to silicon wafers. Contact printing of an adhesive polymer ensures a selective bonding when transferring full SMA sheets to silicon structures on a patterned wafer. The induced stress of a thin dielectric film deposited on top of the SMA sheet ensures a stable and built-in reset mechanism of the actuators. The trimorph microactuators can be actuated by indirect resistive heating through a thin metal film. We report on the successful wafer-scale fabrication of actuator cantilevers and their characteristics. First test cantilevers show a cold-state deflection of 300 μm which, however, is limited by the silicon substrate. Upon heating, the cantilever shows a stroke of approx. 80 μm.
Oilfield Anisotropy : Its Origins and Electrical Characteristics

Across the many disciplines of the oil field, a nearly universal phenomenon is anisotropy —the variation of a property with the direction in which it is measured. Where anisotropy arises, convenient assumptions fall. Seismic reflectors appear at the wrong depth. Seismic lines don’t tie. Waterflood programs fail. Induction logs are misinterpreted and mistake water for pay. As producers seek a finer comb to draw through measurements of the earth, they are changing the status of anisotropy from unwelcome guest to hard-working collaborator. Advances in theory and computing
Evaluation of Cadmium tolerant Fungi in the dying Staff and their removal Potential

Cadmium tolerance and bioremediation capacity of seven isolates including Aspergilus versicolor, Aspergillus fumigatus, Paecilomyces sp.9, Paecilomyces sp.G, Terichoderma sp, Microsporum sp,Cladosporium sp were determined. Minimum inhibitory concentration values among 2,000-6,000 mg lˉproved great ability of isolated strains to survive in cadmium polluted environments. The most tolerant fungi, Aspergilus versicolor, showed tolerance index of 0.93 in 100 mg lˉ cadmium agar media. Fungal resistance against cadmium is depended directly on strain’s biological function. A. versicolor was found to bioaccumulation over 7.67mg of cadmium per 1 g of mycelium, followed by 6.546, 6.354, and 6.286, 6.134 by Paecilomyces sp, Aspergilus fumigatus, Microsporum sp and Terichoderma sp, respectively. It can be noted that tolerance of the strains appears to be independent from bioaccumulation capacity. Finally, the results indicated that A. versicolor could be a prospective candidate for bioremediation processes. Keywords— Cadmium tolerance, Bioremediation, Fungi.
Effects of enzyme additions to diets with corn-and sorghum-based distillers dried grains with solubles on growth performance and nutrient digestibility in nursery and finishing pigs

J. Anim. Sci. Vol. 86, E-Suppl. 2/J. Dairy Sci. Vol. 91, E-Suppl. 1 693 Effects of enzyme additions to diets with cornand sorghumbased distillers dried grains with solubles on growth performance and nutrient digestibility in nursery and finishing pigs. C. Feoli*1, J. D. Hancock1, T. L. Gugle1, S. D. Carter2, and N. A. Cole3, 1Kansas State University, Manhattan, 2Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, 3USDA/ARS, Bushland, TX.
Field validation on vibration control of a cable-stayed footbridge with tuned mass dampers

This paper presents the field validation of vibration control of a long-span cable-stayed bridge with tuned mass dampers (TMDs). The studied bridge is a separated two-level cable-stayed bridge supported by the same pylon. The lower level is a concrete roadway for traffic while the S-shaped upper level is a steel footbridge. The main span of the bridge is 200m with two side span of 100m. Several steel braces linking the roadway and footbridge decks are installed to increase the stiffness and tuned mass dampers are also designed to increase the damping of target modes. The dynamic parameters of the bridge in vertical and lateral directions are obtained by ambient vibration and jump excitation by crowds. A shaker is further used to achieve the steady-state vibration, where the modal frequency, damping ratio and modal mass are identified. The tuned mass dampers are finely tuned to achieve their optimal design parameters based on the measured frequencies and modal masses. Crowds tests conducted after installation of TMD confirm the validity of TMD in reducing the human-induced lateral and vertical vibrations. Lessons learned from the dynamic tests are also highlighted.
The Energy Cost of Location Information in Wireless Sensor Networks

Based on a study of the optimal tracking error, we investigate the energy cost of obtaining location information in emerging wireless sensor networks. Specifically, we study the case of signal strength based positioning and tracking under the assumption of log normal shadowing. We find that for node densities in which signal strength positioning is viable, ana priori determination of the path loss exponent of the shadowing model is energy inefficient and unnecessary in terms of location accuracy. We also find that accuracy improvements in tracking obtained by increasing the radio transmission range of the sensor nodes is energy inefficient in relation to accuracy improvements. Based on our results we propose a simple location-update protocol that designers of location-based network functionalities should deploy.
Simulation study to improve the detection of planar defects located under shrinkage cavities

This paper describes the study carried out by EXTEN D and the General Technical Division of EDF on the detection of defects located in a cast steel compon ent i cluding shrinkage cavities. Such casting defe cts appear within the material during solidification. Experime ntal measurements and simulations performed with CI VA showed that the presence of such cavities, especial ly when positioned at mid-thickness of the componen t, can mask planar type defects located at the bottom of t he part and therefore prevent their potential detec tion. While conventional inspection with single element probe d o s not ensure breaking backwall notches detection, this can be achieved with phased array technology, provided that Signal to Noise Ratio is sufficient. Phased ar rays, thanks to their deflection and focusing capabilitie s, limit the negative impact of shadowing but also all w to obtain high resolution images as the ones resulting from the Total Focusing Method (TFM). This innovat i e imaging technique proved its efficiency in detectin g all the defects in the component while improving defect’s provenance.
Instrumentation and testing of RPC (Resistive Plate Chamber) detectors in the Pierre Auger collaboration

In this thesis it is going to be presented an overview of the physical characteristics of a certain particle detector: Resistive Plate Chambers (RPCs). This work was done as a part of the Muon Auger RPC for the Tank Array (MARTA) project which is an upgrade proposal to insert RPCs below the water tanks of the Pierre Auger observatory. This observatory is a pioneer in astroparticles experiments and has obtained various results and measurement of great interest in cosmic ray physics. These RPCs’ primary objective is to detect and measure the muonic component of the particle shower started by a cosmic ray event. We will focus in the understanding how the particle ionizes the gas and how the charge multiplication phenomenon occurs inside a chamber avalanche. With this knowledge we will give theoretical predictions of the induced signals and the RPC’s efficiency. We find that the experimental results are in line with what we predicted based on charge multiplication phenomenon. There was a big focus on measuring and understanding signals and charges/voltage spectra. We have measured the average charge of the first 6 ns of the avalanche signal to be around 8 pC. We have estimated the percentage of streamers in our acquisitions as being 2.4 %. There were also measurements of the efficiency of around 60 % or 80 % depending on the electronics acquisition setup.
Tool for 3 D Visualization of Color Gamuts and Volume Calculation

This work presents an interactive tool for 3-dim visualization of color gamuts and calculation of their volume in CIELab space. In a first step, a color generator module simulates the colors obtained from a given set of dyes CMYK (RGB) in an idealized printing process. The dyes are characterized by their spectral densities as measured in solution. Color mixing is applied according to Lambert Beer law, i.e. linear combinations of the spectral densities are calculated. These represent “inner spectra” of the receiving layer and the non-linear Saunderson model is applied to take the optical effect of the air/receiver interface into account, finally leading to “external spectra”. By making complete abstraction from a halftone structure, the potential gamut volume of a given set of CMYK (RGB) inks can be benchmarked without influence or limitation by the underlying printing process or the receiving layer. A recently introduced, fast and robust 3-dim surface reconstruction method (Tight Cocone) is then used to obtain a closed surface triangulation, from which the volume of the gamut is obtained with standard methods of vector analysis. Some applications of the tool are shown in comparison with other methods.