Mobile Traffic Expected to Grow More Than 30-Fold [Mobile Radio]

T he Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS) Forum has predicted that voice and data traffic on mobile networks will grow more than 30-fold during the decade ahead. In a new report titled ‘‘Mobile Traffic Forecasts 2010–2020,’’ the third-generation/fourth-generation (3G/4G) industry body indicates that the total annual traffic on mobile networks will globally reach 127 EB (exabytes) in 2020. This represents a one-third increase compared with the figure reported in 2010. The report also predicts that the growth will be even stronger in Europe. During the same period, the UMTS Forum estimates that mobile traffic in a typical Western European country will grow 67 times from 186 to 12,540 TB (terabytes) daily, which in turn will double the corresponding growth globally. In contrast with this explosive growth in data traffic during the decade, the study predicts that mobile voice traffic growth will remain limited during the same period. The forecasted figures represent a total of uplink and downlink voice and data traffic transported on mobile networks using a licensed spectrum. While traffic managed by femtocells is included in the study, the effects of wireless fidelity (WiFi) offload are explicitly not included. Similarly, the forecast does not take into account radio frequency identification (RFID) traffic or any other traffic carried over unlicensed radio frequency bands. Juniper Research estimates that the majority of traffic (63%) generated by smartphones, tablets, and feature phones will transfer onto the fixed network via WiFi and femtocells by 2015. The firm expects that the mobile data traffic generated by smartphones, feature phones, and tablets will exceed 14,000 petabytes (PB) by 2015, equivalent to 18 billion movie downloads or 3 trillion music tracks. As a result, the annual mobile data traffic offloaded from operators’ networks via WiFi and femtocells is forecasted to reach nearly 9,000 PB by 2015. According to the International Data Corporation (IDC) Worldwide Mobile Phone Tracker, the worldwide mobile phone market grew 19.8% year over year in the first quarter of 2011. The firm estimates that vendors shipped 371.8 million units in this quarter, compared with 310.5 million units in the first quarter of 2010. In a different report, Pyramid Research estimates that the total number of handsets sold to end users globally will reach 1.46 billion in 2011, with smartphones accounting for 27% of the sales. According to the firm, this figure will almost double to 53% in 2015, driven by the demand for inexpensive Android models. The firm also believes that by 2015 Windows Phone might overtake Android and other major competitors and establish itself as the leader in the smartphone-operating system space. In a different study, Parks Associates believes that more than 2 billion people worldwide will own at least one smartphone in 2015, with unit sales growing more than 175% from 2010. The firm estimates that smartphone shipments increased 70% in 2010, with approximately 500 million users. Gartner also estimates that worldwide smartphone sales will reach 468 million units in 2011, which represents a 57.7% increase from 2010. The firm also expects that, by the end of 2011, Android will become the most popular operating system worldwide and will account for 49% of the smartphone market by 2012. In-Stat expects that the number of WiFi Direct-enabled devices shipped in 2011 will reach 173 million. Devices shipping with embedded WiFi Direct in 2011 will be led by desktop PCs, digital TVs, mobile phones, and notebook PCs. WiFi Direct enables 802.11 to add peer-to-peer capability, with no need for a WiFi access point. In a different study, IHS iSuppli estimates that shipments of electronic products with embedded wireless local area networking (WLAN) technology will surpass 1 billion units in 2011 (up 35.8% from 880.4 billion units in 2010) and rise to more than 2 billion in 2015. The firm estimates that, in 2011, 19.7% of the suitable devices shipped worldwide will have some form of an embedded WLAN. Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/MVT.2011. 941889