Maternal serum concentration of anti-Müllerian hormone is a better predictor than basal follicle stimulating hormone of successful blastocysts development during IVF treatment

Background The conditions of diminished ovarian reserve and primary ovarian insufficiency, characterized by poor fertility outcomes, currently comprise a major challenge in reproductive medicine, particularly in vitro fertilization. Currently in the IVF industry, blastocyst developmental success rate per treatment is routinely overlooked when a live birth results from treatment. Limited data are available on this significant and actionable variable of blastocyst development optimization, which contributes to improvement of treatment success Women with elevated basal FSH concentration are reported to still achieve reasonable pregnancy rates, although only a few studies report correlations with blastocysts development. Diagnostic values of AMH/basal FSH concentrations can be useful for determining the optimal stimulation protocol as well as identification of individuals who will not benefit from IVF due to poor prognosis. The objective of this study is to identify actionable clinical and culture characteristics of IVF treatment that influence blastocyst developmental rate, with the goal of acquiring optimal success. Methods and findings A retrospective observational study was performed, based on 106 women undergoing IVF, regardless of prognosis, over a six-month period from January 1, 2015 to June 31, 2015. Rate of high-quality blastocyst production, which can be used for embryo transfer or vitrification, per normally fertilized oocyte, was evaluated. Treatment was determined successful when outcome was ≥ 40% high-quality blastocysts. The data were initially evaluated with the Evtree algorithm, a statistical computational analysis which is inspired by natural Darwinian evolution incorporating concepts such as mutation and natural selection (see Supplementary Material). The analysis processes all variables simultaneously against the outcome, aiming to maximize discrimination of each variable to then create a “branch” of the tree which can be used as a decision in treatment. The final model results in only those variables which are significant to outcomes. Generalized linear model (GLM) employing logistic regression and survival analysis with R software was used and the final fitting of the model was determined through the use of random forest and evolutionary tree algorithms. Individuals presenting with an [AMH] of >3.15 ng/ml and a good prognosis had a lower success per treatment (n = 11, 0% success) when total gonadotropin doses were greater than 3325 IU. Individuals that presented with an [AMH] of <1.78 ng/ml and a poor prognosis exhibited a greater success per treatment (n = 11, 80% success). AMH emerged as a superior indicator of blastocyst development compared to basal FSH. The accuracy of the prediction model, our statistical analysis using decision tree, evtree methodology is 86.5% in correctly predicting outcome based on the significant variables. The likelihood that the outcome with be incorrect of the model, or the error rate is 13.5%. Conclusions [AMH] is a superior indicator of ovarian stimulation response and an actionable variable for stimulation dose management for optimizing blastocyst development in culture. Women whose [AMH] is ≥3.2 mg/ml, having a good prognosis, and developing >12 mature follicles result in <40% blastocysts when gonadotropin doses exceed 3325 IU per treatment. IVF treatments for poor responders that present with infertility due to diminished ovarian reserve, if managed appropriately, can produce more usable blastocyst per IVF treatment, thus increasing rate of blastocyst developmental success and ultimately increasing live birth rates. Future studies are needed to investigate the intra-follicular and the intra-cellular mechanisms that lead to the inverse relationship of blastocysts development and total gonadotropin doses in good responders in contrast to poor responders.