Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
The Role of Global Shocks in Explaining US Output and Real Exchange Rate: Evidence From Unfiltered Data

We investigate the role of global shocks in the determination of US business cycle fluctuations, with a particular focus on their relative contribution to explaining the dynamics of output and real exchange rate. To this end, we develop a two-sector open economy dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model with oil demand that, in addition to global shocks, also incorporates productivity, mark-up and demand shocks. Using unfiltered data, this model is estimated within an indirect inference (II) framework. Our findings reveal that global shocks are among the chief drivers of movements in many US macroeconomic aggregates, including output and the real exchange rate between 1949 and 2013. Consequently, we establish that productivity, mark-up and demand shocks alone cannot sufficiently account for the observed volatilities in the variables of interest.
Modelling Stock Returns with Lévy Processes

Several approaches to model stock returns with Lévy Processes have been developed in the past years. Firstly, this article will review existing approaches and compare the latest ones through an analysis of the Lévy density. Secondly, this article will provide a simple but general parameterization for the Lévy density which yields a class of Lévy processes that can be used in a financial context. These processes - titled alpha-beta Lévy motions - will allow for excessive arrival rates of average size jumps, in correspondence to humped return distributions at short time scales.
Forecasting Volatilities in Equity, Bond, and Money Markets: A Market-Based Approach

This study examines the forecasting power of the most popular volatility forecasting models in the S&P 500 index market, Eurodollar futures market, and 30-year US T-Bond futures market. A new way to evaluate volatility forecasting models by applying the out-of-sample testing techniques in the context of option pricing is proposed. The approach develops Karolyi's (1993) option pricing error approach empirically. Spurious regressions biases and biases of measurement of volatility forecasts are controlled for. The evidence in this paper supports use of implied volatility as a proxy for market volatility, as it works best in forecasting future volatility. It is also concluded that volatilities in the three markets follow a Stochastic Volatility process, as an AR(1) best fits the implied volatility series in each of the markets. These empirical results are consistent with the predictions of Rational Expectations theory. Directions for further investigation are noted.
Demographics and the Behavior of Interest Rates

Interest rates are very persistent. Modeling the persistent component of interest rates has important consequence for forecasting. Factor models of the term structure are restricted VAR models that project over a long-horizon the one-period risk-free rate to obtain yields at longer horizon as the sum of the expected future monetary policy and the term premia. The included factors are typically mean reverting and the equilibrium real rates are considered constant (think, for example, of the standard Taylor rule), partial adjustments to equilibrium yields are then used to rationalize the persistence in the observed data. As a result, the empirical models feature a very high level of persistence that makes long-horizon predictions inherently inaccurate. This paper relates the common persistent component of the U.S. term structure of interest rates to the age composition of population. The composition of age structure determines the equilibrium rate in the monetary policy rule and therefore the persistent component in one-period yields. Fluctuations in demographics are then transmitted to the whole-term structure via the expected policy rate components. We build an affine term structure model (ATSM) which exploits demographic information to capture the dynamics of yields and produce useful forecasts of bond yields and excess returns that provide economic value for long-term investors.
Unexpected role of ungulate carcasses in the diet of Golden Eagles Aquila chrysaetos in Mediterranean mountains

Capsule Golden Eagles consumed more carrion than shown by traditional analyses. Aims To determine whether the traditional methods for diet determination in avian predators are subject to biases in relation to the consumption of carrion. Methods The consumption by Golden Eagles of ungulate carcasses supplied through sport hunting in a typical Mediterranean area of southeast Spain was monitored by camera trapping through an entire year. We simultaneously analysed the breeding diet of three Eagle pairs by conventional procedures. Results Golden Eagles regularly used ungulate carrion in the study area, benefiting from 57% of the available carcasses. Ninety percent of the territorial eagles fed on monitored carcasses, and the consumption was similar through the year. However, this source of food comprised only 1.5–9.1% of the prey items identified by traditional methods. Conclusions Our findings suggest that pellet and prey remains analyses under‐represent the role of carrion in the diet of avian predators in Mediterranean ecosystems. The difficulty of quantifying scavenged material in predators' diets have probably contributed to the perception that the scavenging behaviour of species such as Golden Eagles are unimportant in the regulation and functioning of certain ecosystems.
Measuring Financial Stress and Economic Sensitivity in CEE Countries

This paper presents forecasts for the Financial Stress Index (FSI) and the Economic Sensitivity Index (ESI) for the period 2014-2015 for six countries in the region, namely the Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania and Poland. It is a continuation of the endeavor to construct synthetic indices measuring financial stress and economic sensitivity for twelve Central and East European countries using the Principal Component Analysis. In order to obtain forecasts of the FSI, we estimated Vector Autoregression (VAR) models on monthly data for the period 2001-2012 separately for all the countries. Using quarterly historical values of ESI and FSI, we estimated Dynamic Panel Data Model for the complete sample of countries. Parameters of the model were later used for forecasting the ESI. Obtained results suggest that the FSI will start to rise in 2014 in the Czech Republic, Lithuania, and Estonia. For Latvia and Hungary, we observed a conversion in the trend, i.e. at the beginning of 2015, when the index should start to fall. According to our forecasts, the ESI will be rising in the next two years, except for Hungary, where we predict a continuous decrease in economic sensitivity.
Acidophilic and thermophilic Bacillus strains from geothermally heated antarctic soil

Bacteria with temperature optima of 51–54°C and pH optima of 3.5–4.5 were isolated from geothermal soil collected from Mount Erebus, Ross Island, Antarctica. The isolates were enriched on medium designed for the growth of Thermoplasma but the strains found were members of the genus Bacillus. Comparisons with other thermophilic acidophilic Bacillus species indicate that the strains most strongly resemble B. acidocaldarius although their temperature optima and substrate utilisation spectrum differ from one another. These strains join B. schlegelii as being isolated from geothermal soils present on Mt. Erebus.
Old and New Spectral Techniques for Economic Time Series

This methodological paper reviews different spectral techniques well suitable to the analysis of economic time series. While econometric time series analysis is generally yielded in the time domain, these techniques propose a complementary approach based on the frequency domain. Spectral decomposition and time series reconstruction provide a precise quantitative and formal description of the main oscillatory components of a series: thus, it is possible to formally identify trends, low-frequency components, business cycles, seasonalities, etc. Since recent developments in spectral techniques allow to manage even with short noisy dataset, nonstationary processes, non purely periodic components these tools could be applied on economic datasets more widely than they nowadays are.
GENOTYPING OF “CAPTURED” HAIRS REVEALS BURROW-USE AND RANGING BEHAVIOR OF SOUTHERN HAIRY-NOSED WOMBATS

Abstract The southern hairy-nosed wombat (Lasiorhinus latifrons) is a cryptic, primarily nocturnal marsupial, for which behavioral information is notably lacking. Animals that are difficult to observe can be identified and tracked by individual-specific genotypes obtained from remotely collected DNA sources; wombats are excellent candidates for such an approach because freshly plucked hair is easily captured at burrow entrances. Twice a year during 1999–2001, we employed an intensive remote hair-collection regime coupled with individual-resolution genetic analysis to sample a South Australian population in a 63.3-km2 protected conservation reserve. Individuals were identified using 5 highly polymorphic microsatellite markers and further examined using another 10 markers to resolve ambiguities, enabling assessment of burrow- and space-use patterns. Analyses of rate of discovery of new individuals indicated that nearly all wombats inhabiting the study area were detected (102); there were >1,000 “capture” events, and 90% of individuals were detected multiple times. Surprisingly, a female sex bias existed despite females being the dispersing sex. Space use was conservative and likely a reflection of adaptations enabling energy conservation. Transits between the northern and southern sections of the study area were nearly nonexistent. No sex or consistent seasonal differences were found in burrow, warren, or space use, other than in interaction with other factors. However, a strong increase in activity and space use in September 2001 relative to other sampling periods may be attributed to activities associated with mating. The thoroughness and evenness of this study's sampling strategy was markedly effective for this species, as, with appropriate modification and optimization, it will likely be for other shy and cryptic organisms.
Sample Size and Grounded Theory

Interviews are one of the most frequently used method of data collection and grounded theory has emerged as one of the most commonly used methodological frameworks. Although interviews are widely accepted, there is little written on an appropriate sample size. To tackle this concern a content analysis of one hundred articles that utilized grounded theory and interviews as a data collection method was performed. The findings indicate the point of theoretical saturation can be affected by the scope of the research question, the sensitivity of the phenomena, and the ability of the researcher. However, the average sample size was twenty-five, but it is recommended to plan for thirty interviews to fully develop patterns, concepts, categories, properties, and dimensions of the given phenomena. By knowing an approximation of the required number of interviews researchers now have starting point which will assist in the design, execution and budgeting of a research project.
Expression of Transforming Growth Factor-β1, -β2, and -β3 mRNA and Protein in the Murine Lung

Evidence has accumulated suggesting that the various isoforms of β-type transforming growth factors (TGF-βs) regulate important functions in the lung; however, the cellular source of these proteins is not well defined. Northern blot analysis of murine lung tissue demonstrates that mRNA transcripts for all three TGF-β isoforms are found from birth through adulthood. Although the level of expression for each TGF-β is variable during the first 2 wk post partum, all three isoforms are equal in the adult lung. Using in situ hybridization and immunohistochemical analysis, we have localized both mRNA and protein expression for all three isoforms of TGF-β in the adult murine lung. At low magnification, immunohistochemical localization of TGF-β proteins appears coincident in their pattern of expression with TGF-β mRNAs in the large proximal conducting airways of the lung. However, on closer analysis, protein expression of all three TGF-β isoforms is confined to the bronchiolar epithelium, while TGF-β mRNA transcri.
A maternal high-fat diet in rat pregnancy reduces growth of the fetus and the placental junctional zone, but not placental labyrinth zone growth

Maternal obesity during pregnancy is often characterized by fetal macrosomia but it can also result in fetal growth restriction in a subset of pregnancies. We hypothesized that mechanisms of this growth restriction may include adverse effects of maternal high fat (HF) intake on placental growth and function. Female rats (100 days old) were time-mated and randomly assigned to either a control (Con) or HF diet ad libitum throughout gestation. At E21, dams were killed; litter size and fetal and placental weights were recorded and maternal and fetal samples collected for further analyses. The HF diet resulted in a 54% increase in maternal body weight gain during gestation. In contrast, male and female fetal weights were reduced in HF pregnancies (P < 0.05), as were the weights of the junctional zone of the placenta (P = 0.013), whereas labyrinth zone weights were unaffected. The HF diet increased maternal and fetal plasma leptin levels (P < 0.05), but maternal and fetal insulin and fetal glucose levels were unaffected. Labyrinthine expression of PPARγ and total VEGFa mRNA, both markers of placental vascular development, were unaffected by consumption of the HF diet in placentas of male and female fetuses. Furthermore, maternal HF nutrition did not alter phosphorylated protein levels of either mammalian target of rapamycin or its downstream signaling factor eIF4E binding protein 1 (4E-BP1). These data show that in the rat, maternal HF nutrition results in fetal and placental junctional zone growth restriction, maternal and fetal hyperleptinemia but did not alter gene expression of markers of placental vascular development.
A novel nuclear protein which binds to Gγ and Aγ globin promoters and modulates hemoglobin synthesis in K562 cells

Nuclear extract of human erythroleukemic cell line K562 contains a 70 kDa protein which is gradually reduced when cells are induced to express globin genes by 25 μM hemin. When globin synthesis was inhibited by cycloheximide (100 μg/ml) or Actinomycin D (1 μg/ml), the disappearance of this protein was prevented. The 70 kDa nuclear protein exhibited strong binding to Gγ and Aγ globin promoters but not to β‐globin promoter. This suggests that this 70 kDa nuclear protein may be involved in the regulation of fetal globin gene expression.
Social Interactions and Smoking: Evidence Using Multiple Student Cohorts, Instrumental Variables, and School Fixed Effects

In this paper, I use a social interactions framework to detect whether individual smoking decisions are influenced by classmate smoking decisions. There are several large challenges in addressing this question, including the endogeneity of school (and thus classmates) through residential location choices, 'third factors' such as school-level unobservables that influence individual and classmate choices simultaneously, and the difficulty of the identification of parameters in empirical models of social interactions (Manski 1993, Brock and Durlauf 2001). In order to address these issues, I use an instrumental variables/fixed effects methodology that compares students in different grades within the same high school who face a different set of classmates and classmates' decisions. Preferred specifications suggest that increasing the proportion of classmates who smoke by 10% will increase the likelihood an individual smokes by approximately 3 percentage points. I compare these results with previous findings that are unable to use school fixed effects and/or use potentially invalid instruments and find that the current results suggest smaller social interactions in adolescent smoking decisions than some previous work.
Basel III: Road to Resilient Banking, Impact on Turkey's Financial Sector

The world has seen two major financial and economic crises in less than two decades, which have shaken investor confidence in the financial systems, resulted in tens of hundreds of billions of loss, and left behind dislocated societies in many regions. Everything started in the summer months of 1997 in East and Southeast Asia; all the way up to the end of 1996, there was a remarkable success story to tell about the unequaled economic progress that had been going on for at least past three or four decades. Was this a testing time for the so called Asian tigers (or dragons)? Asian tigers were being tested for resilience and redemption to prove to the world that the metaphor was not just a myth; around the same time a serious of technological transformation marked the beginning for the dot-com boom in the United States which lasted only three years. From 1997 to March of 2000, the Internet and related technologies’ high-flying stocks in industrialized nations saw amazing equity-value appreciation most of which unfortunately was based on more speculative assumptions rather than historic real valuations. Technology powerhouse NASDAQ composite index, where a lot of the technology stocks including those of dot-com companies were listed and traded, more than doubled its level compared to a year ago. The bubble burst soon after NASDAQ passed the critical 5000 mark and the crash of 2000-2002 (dot-come bust) cost investors a mind blowing half of the U.S. GDP ($10.01 trillion in 2001).
Haematological Profiles of Lactating Nili-Ravi Buffaloes Under Heat Stress-Alleviated Conditions During Sub-tropical Summer Season

The experiment was conducted using forty two Nili-Ravi lactating buffaloes of Central Institute for Research on Buffaloes, Regional Station-Bir Dosanjh, Nabha, Patiala, Punjab to investigate the effect of heat stress-alleviated conditions on haematological profile in Nili-Ravi buffaloes during hot-dry (HD) and hot-humid (HH) season. All buffaloes were uniformly divided into two groups of twenty one in each group considering their lactation number, stage of lactation, body weight, dam’s milk yield and milk yield in current lactation. Out of which ten buffaloes from each group were selected for blood sampling considering those above factors. The control (T 0 ) group were kept in a separate shed without any extra nutrient supplementation and modification in microclimate and management. The treatment (T 1 ) group was supplemented with niacin@6 gm/buffalo/day, yeast@10 gm/buffalo/day and mustard oil @150gms/buffalo/day. They were provided curtains and mist fans in the shed. Feeding time, frequency and type of ration were also altered. During HD period, T 0 group exhibited higher (P<0.002, P<0.05) WBC (17.2 x 10 9 /L), and lymphocyte (12.52 x 10 9 /L) counts and lymphocyte per cent (69.46 %) than T 1 group (12.32 x 10 9 /L, 7.32 x 10 9 /L and 59.68%, respectively). Similar results were recorded during hot humid season in T 0 and T 1 group. The neutrophil per cent differed significantly between T 0 and T 1 group under HD (P<0.001) and HH (P<0.006) season. The study indicated that heat stress during sub-tropical summer months affected the haematology of lactating buffaloes and the stress could be reduced through the change (use of fans and curtains, nutritional supplementations, and feeding alterations together in the form of one package) of microclimate.
Addressing Spatial Heterogeneity in Regional Technical Efficiency

A new production-frontier specification is proposed when dealing with decision-making units whose efficiencies are correlated with the performances of the neighbors (spatial dependence), providing a bias reduction with respect to standard data envelopment analysis (DEA) methods. For the constructed European Union (EU) regional production frontiers over the period 2000-2014, the estimated SDEA scores show a transformation over time from a uni-modal distribution to a bimodal distribution do not detected by the DEA frontiers, providing new insights on the causes of the observed polarization of the European distribution of output per worker and per capita income.
How Do Financial Institutions React to a Tax Increase?

This paper empirically highlights the role and significance of taxes for the capital structure decisions of banks. Using a difference-in-differences methodology, I show that an increase in the local U.S. state corporate tax rate affects the banks' financing as well as their operating choices. Better-capitalized banks raise their long-term non-depository debt and thus benefit from an enlarged tax shield. Worse-capitalized banks instead reduce their lending because a higher tax rate increases the tax-adjusted cost of funding, which renders the marginal loan unprofitable.
The Educational Effects of 19th Century Disentailment of Catholic Church Land in Colombia

The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of land concentration prompted by the distribution of disentailed Church land during the second half of the 19th century on the accumulation of human capital, in early 20th century Colombia. Utilizing existing primary sources on the process of land disentailment and the 1912 National Census, descriptive statistics and econometric evidence show a significant and negative relationship between the amount of disentailed land during the 1870s at municipal level with literacy and school enrollment rates of males in 1912.
Characteristics and Production Costs of U.S. Corn Farms, 2001

Corn production costs per bushel vary considerably among U.S. producers, depending on yields, farm location, tillage practices, irrigation, previous field usage, enterprise size, and weather. In 2001, the operating and ownership costs per bushel for corn ranged from an average of $1.08 for the 25 percent of U.S. producers with the lowest costs to an average of $2.98 for the 25 percent with the highest costs. Heartland corn producers had the lowest costs per bushel on average. Corn producers with small corn enterprises had the highest costs due to their lower-than-average corn yields. Operators of part-time and low-sales corn farms have higher production costs per bushel than operators of farms with higher sales. In 2001, 59 percent of corn producers earned a positive net return per bushel after covering their operating and ownership costs from the market value of corn. When loan deficiency payments (LDPs) on corn were added to the value of corn production, 64 percent of producers covered their corn operating and ownership costs. When income consists of the value of production, LDPs, production flexibility contract, market loss, and disaster assistance payments, 73 percent of producers earned a positive return per bushel after accounting for their operating and ownership costs.