Cleanroom Microbiology: For the Non-Microbiologist

Predictable Surprises: The Disasters You Should Have Seen Com i n~ a nd llcw To Prevent Them. ~ta. '( H. Bazerman and ~tichael D. Walkins. 2004. Ilo;too ; 1131\,ro Business Publishing Cnmpan);316p31\<S. Looking to the future and predieting anomalies in the way things unfold inanuncertain environment is a risky business. Using contemporary examples Bazerman and Watkins illustrate how managers can effectively cope with conditions that signal unfavo rable outcomes of change in their organization's culture. The techniques presented are intriguing in theirSimplici ty. The authors set the stage by illustrating that predictable surprise is all event having six characteristics that make it unique. 111Cfirst ismal a predictable surprise is a problem known to exist that will not solve itself Second.it isclearly noted tobe getting worse over time. Third. the issue involves a formidable cost to address without immediate benefi ts. Or fou rth, it is without anybenefits at all. because a problem prevented dee> not offer a recognizable return 10 the organization. The fifth and sixth characteristics rest in the propensity of leaders and special interest groups to maintain the status quo for their own benefit. Bazerman and ~·atkins suggest that leaders vigilantly address events having these characteristics to identify predictable fai lures in ! he traditiona! elements oftheirorganization involving tangible outputs such as: cost, schedule. or qua! i~·. as ~~11 as emerging concems such as security ardwersight. The opening two sections of the book eloquently present well documented examples ofvarious fonns of predictable surprises thai haw befallen on both public and private organizations. Reading them provides a common experience and cnegories (cognitive, organizational. and political) upon which the authors build their recommendations ' to managers so theycan effectively identily and deal with conditions that eventually manifest themselves as having a negative impact on the organization theylead. Preventing predictablesurprises is addressed in the third partof the book. ltcovers three basic surpriseavoidance tasks: recognition. prioritizalion, and mob ilization. \\'hilenoneof these concepts is new nor the techniques desc ribed to support them radical, the authors make a convincingcase to apply them collectively on a continuing basis to stabilize an organization. Bazerman and Watkins implore leaders throughout anorganization to provide focus. energy, judgment. and courage to drive the surpriseavoidance process lhe). describe. The techniques they suggest are generally found, in some form. in most organizations. For example, under recognition: measurement, network building, scenario planning, and a disciplined learning process are proposed as processes that individually or collectively could identtfv potential areas of concern. Bazerman and \\'atkins do caution that a myopic use ofany of them could result in an organizational bias that would result in failure. For this reason, they suggest encompassing tools be used in the problem recognition stage, such as a balanced score card measurement task or a wide ly disseminated less ons-learnedeffort to support the disciplined learning process. Predictable Surprises is an excellent contribu tion to the 'l eadershipfortheCommon Goof ' series. Bazerman and Watkilt<; have done an excellent job of defining t he role ofleaders inbeing aware of the potential internal and external threats to the organi zation they belong (0 and inbeing proactive in responding to them.