Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Spatial Backfitting of Roller Measurement Values from a Florida Test Bed

Modern earthwork compaction rollers collect location and compaction information as they traverse a compaction site. These data are indirectly observed through non-linear measurement operators, inherently multivariate with complex correlation structures, and collected in huge quantities. The nature of such data was investigated at a large, atypically compacted test bed in Florida, USA. Exploratory analysis of this data through detrending and empirical semivariogram estimation is performed. A second analysis using a sequential, spatial backfitting algorithm is used to investigate the importance of driving direction of the roller.
Minimax Estimation of Nonregular Parameters and Discontinuity in Minimax Risk

Abstract When a parameter of interest is nondifferentiable in the probability, the existing theory of semiparametric efficient estimation is not applicable, as it does not have an influence function. Song (2014) recently developed a local asymptotic minimax estimation theory for a parameter that is a nondifferentiable transform of a regular parameter, where the transform is a composite map of a continuous piecewise linear map with a single kink point and a translation-scale equivariant map. The contribution of this paper is twofold. First, this paper extends the local asymptotic minimax theory to nondifferentiable transforms that are a composite map of a Lipschitz continuous map having a finite set of nondifferentiability points and a translation-scale equivariant map. Second, this paper investigates the discontinuity of the local asymptotic minimax risk in the true probability and shows that the proposed estimator remains to be optimal even when the risk is locally robustified not only over the scores at the true probability, but also over the true probability itself. However, the local robustification does not resolve the issue of discontinuity in the local asymptotic minimax risk.
Detection of Anomalous Crowd Behavior Using Spatio-Temporal Multiresolution Model and Kronecker Sum Decompositions

In this work we consider the problem of detecting anomalous spatio-temporal behavior in videos. Our approach is to learn the normative multiframe pixel joint distribution and detect deviations from it using a likelihood based approach. Due to the extreme lack of available training samples relative to the dimension of the distribution, we use a mean and covariance approach and consider methods of learning the spatio-temporal covariance in the low-sample regime. Our approach is to estimate the covariance using parameter reduction and sparse models. The first method considered is the representation of the covariance as a sum of Kronecker products as in (Greenewald et al 2013), which is found to be an accurate approximation in this setting. We propose learning algorithms relevant to our problem. We then consider the sparse multiresolution model of (Choi et al 2010) and apply the Kronecker product methods to it for further parameter reduction, as well as introducing modifications for enhanced efficiency and greater applicability to spatio-temporal covariance matrices. We apply our methods to the detection of crowd behavior anomalies in the University of Minnesota crowd anomaly dataset, and achieve competitive results.
Identifiability of an Integer Modular Acyclic Additive Noise Model and its Causal Structure Discovery

The notion of causality is used in many situations dealing with uncertainty. We consider the problem whether causality can be identified given data set generated by discrete random variables rather than continuous ones. In particular, for non-binary data, thus far it was only known that causality can be identified except rare cases. In this paper, we present necessary and sufficient condition for an integer modular acyclic additive noise (IMAN) of two variables. In addition, we relate bivariate and multivariate causal identifiability in a more explicit manner, and develop a practical algorithm to find the order of variables and their parent sets. We demonstrate its performance in applications to artificial data and real world body motion data with comparisons to conventional methods.
Infinite Structured Hidden Semi-Markov Models

This paper reviews recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric techniques for constructing and performing inference in infinite hidden Markov models. We focus on variants of Bayesian nonparametric hidden Markov models that enhance a posteriori state-persistence in particular. This paper also introduces a new Bayesian nonparametric framework for generating left-to-right and other structured, explicit-duration infinite hidden Markov models that we call the infinite structured hidden semi-Markov model.
Geometric median and robust estimation in Banach spaces

In many real-world applications, collected data are contaminated by noise with heavy-tailed distribution and might contain outliers of large magnitude. In this situation, it is necessary to apply methods which produce reliable outcomes even if the input contains corrupted measurements. We describe a general method which allows one to obtain estimators with tight concentration around the true parameter of interest taking values in a Banach space. Suggested construction relies on the fact that the geometric median of a collection of independent "weakly concentrated" estimators satisfies a much stronger deviation bound than each individual element in the collection. Our approach is illustrated through several examples, including sparse linear regression and low-rank matrix recovery problems.
Functional Gaussian processes for regression with linear PDE models

In this paper, we present a new statistical approach to the problem of incorporating experimental observations into a mathematical model described by linear partial differential equations (PDEs) to improve the prediction of the state of a physical system. We augment the linear PDE with a functional that accounts for the uncertainty in the mathematical model and is modeled as a {\em Gaussian process}. This gives rise to a stochastic PDE which is characterized by the Gaussian functional. We develop a {\em functional Gaussian process regression} method to determine the posterior mean and covariance of the Gaussian functional, thereby solving the stochastic PDE to obtain the posterior distribution for our prediction of the physical state. Our method has the following features which distinguish itself from other regression methods. First, it incorporates both the mathematical model and the observations into the regression procedure. Second, it can handle the observations given in the form of linear functionals of the field variable. Third, the method is non-parametric in the sense that it provides a systematic way to optimally determine the prior covariance operator of the Gaussian functional based on the observations. Fourth, it provides the posterior distribution quantifying the magnitude of uncertainty in our prediction of the physical state. We present numerical results to illustrate these features of the method and compare its performance to that of the standard Gaussian process regression.
A generalized mixed model framework for assessing fingerprint individuality in presence of varying image quality

Fingerprint individuality refers to the extent of uniqueness of fingerprints and is the main criteria for deciding between a match versus nonmatch in forensic testimony. Often, prints are subject to varying levels of noise, for example, the image quality may be low when a print is lifted from a crime scene. A poor image quality causes human experts as well as automatic systems to make more errors in feature detection by either missing true features or detecting spurious ones. This error lowers the extent to which one can claim individualization of fingerprints that are being matched. The aim of this paper is to quantify the decrease in individualization as image quality degrades based on fingerprint images in real databases. This, in turn, can be used by forensic experts along with their testimony in a court of law. An important practical concern is that the databases used typically consist of a large number of fingerprint images so computational algorithms such as the Gibbs sampler can be extremely slow. We develop algorithms based on the Laplace approximation of the likelihood and infer the unknown parameters based on this approximate likelihood. Two publicly available databases, namely, FVC2002 and FVC2006, are analyzed from which estimates of individuality are obtained. From a statistical perspective, the contribution can be treated as an innovative application of Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMMs) to the field of fingerprint-based authentication.
Bayesian Network Structure Learning with Permutation Tests

In literature there are several studies on the performance of Bayesian network structure learning algorithms. The focus of these studies is almost always the heuristics the learning algorithms are based on, i.e., the maximization algorithms (in score-based algorithms) or the techniques for learning the dependencies of each variable (in constraint-based algorithms). In this article, we investigate how the use of permutation tests instead of parametric ones affects the performance of Bayesian network structure learning from discrete data. Shrinkage tests are also covered to provide a broad overview of the techniques developed in current literature.
On asymptotics of the discrete convex LSE of a pmf

In this article, we derive the weak limiting distribution of the least squares estimator (LSE) of a convex probability mass function (pmf) with a finite support. We show that it can be defined via a certain convex projection of a Gaussian vector. Furthermore, samples of any given size from this limit distribution can be generated using an efficient Dykstra-like algorithm.
Maximum-likelihood estimation for diffusion processes via closed-form density expansions

This paper proposes a widely applicable method of approximate maximum-likelihood estimation for multivariate diffusion process from discretely sampled data. A closed-form asymptotic expansion for transition density is proposed and accompanied by an algorithm containing only basic and explicit calculations for delivering any arbitrary order of the expansion. The likelihood function is thus approximated explicitly and employed in statistical estimation. The performance of our method is demonstrated by Monte Carlo simulations from implementing several examples, which represent a wide range of commonly used diffusion models. The convergence related to the expansion and the estimation method are theoretically justified using the theory of Watanabe [Ann. Probab. 15 (1987) 1-39] and Yoshida [J. Japan Statist. Soc. 22 (1992) 139-159] on analysis of the generalized random variables under some standard sufficient conditions.
Stratified Graphical Models - Context-Specific Independence in Graphical Models

Theory of graphical models has matured over more than three decades to provide the backbone for several classes of models that are used in a myriad of applications such as genetic mapping of diseases, credit risk evaluation, reliability and computer security, etc. Despite of their generic applicability and wide adoptance, the constraints imposed by undirected graphical models and Bayesian networks have also been recognized to be unnecessarily stringent under certain circumstances. This observation has led to the proposal of several generalizations that aim at more relaxed constraints by which the models can impose local or context-specific dependence structures. Here we consider an additional class of such models, termed as stratified graphical models. We develop a method for Bayesian learning of these models by deriving an analytical expression for the marginal likelihood of data under a specific subclass of decomposable stratified models. A non-reversible Markov chain Monte Carlo approach is further used to identify models that are highly supported by the posterior distribution over the model space. Our method is illustrated and compared with ordinary graphical models through application to several real and synthetic datasets.
Testing for residual correlation of any order in the autoregressive process

We are interested in the implications of a linearly autocorrelated driven noise on the asymptotic behavior of the usual least squares estimator in a stable autoregressive process. We show that the least squares estimator is not consistent and we suggest a sharp analysis of its almost sure limiting value as well as its asymptotic normality. We also establish the almost sure convergence and the asymptotic normality of the estimated serial correlation parameter of the driven noise. Then, we derive a statistical procedure enabling to test for correlation of any order in the residuals of an autoregressive modelling, giving clearly better results than the commonly used portmanteau tests of Ljung-Box and Box-Pierce, and appearing to outperform the Breusch-Godfrey procedure on small-sized samples.
A comparison of nonlinear population Monte Carlo and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms for Bayesian inference in stochastic kinetic models

In this paper we address the problem of Monte Carlo approximation of posterior probability distributions in stochastic kinetic models (SKMs). SKMs are multivariate Markov jump processes that model the interactions among species in biochemical systems according to a set of uncertain parameters. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have been typically preferred for this Bayesian inference problem. Specifically, the particle MCMC (pMCMC) method has been recently shown to be an effective, while computationally demanding, method applicable to this problem. Within the pMCMC framework, importance sampling (IS) has been used only as the basis of the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) approximation of the acceptance ratio in the Metropolis-Hastings kernel. However, the recently proposed nonlinear population Monte Carlo (NPMC) algorithm, based on an iterative IS scheme, has also been shown to be effective as a Bayesian inference tool for low dimensional (predator-prey) SKMs. In this paper, we provide an extensive performance comparison of pMCMC versus NPMC, when applied to the challenging prokaryotic autoregulatory network. We show how the NPMC method can greatly outperform the pMCMC algorithm in this scenario, with an overall moderate computational effort. We complement the numerical comparison of the two techniques with an asymptotic convergence analysis of the nonlinear IS scheme at the core of the proposed method when the importance weights can only be computed approximately.
Learning Parameters for Weighted Matrix Completion via Empirical Estimation

Recently theoretical guarantees have been obtained for matrix completion in the non-uniform sampling regime. In particular, if the sampling distribution aligns with the underlying matrix's leverage scores, then with high probability nuclear norm minimization will exactly recover the low rank matrix. In this article, we analyze the scenario in which the non-uniform sampling distribution may or may not not align with the underlying matrix's leverage scores. Here we explore learning the parameters for weighted nuclear norm minimization in terms of the empirical sampling distribution. We provide a sufficiency condition for these learned weights which provide an exact recovery guarantee for weighted nuclear norm minimization. It has been established that a specific choice of weights in terms of the true sampling distribution not only allows for weighted nuclear norm minimization to exactly recover the low rank matrix, but also allows for a quantifiable relaxation in the exact recovery conditions. In this article we extend this quantifiable relaxation in exact recovery conditions for a specific choice of weights defined analogously in terms of the empirical distribution as opposed to the true sampling distribution. To accomplish this we employ a concentration of measure bound and a large deviation bound. We also present numerical evidence for the healthy robustness of the weighted nuclear norm minimization algorithm to the choice of empirically learned weights. These numerical experiments show that for a variety of easily computable empirical weights, weighted nuclear norm minimization outperforms unweighted nuclear norm minimization in the non-uniform sampling regime.
Sublinear expectation linear regression

Nonlinear expectation, including sublinear expectation as its special case, is a new and original framework of probability theory and has potential applications in some scientific fields, especially in finance risk measure and management. Under the nonlinear expectation framework, however, the related statistical models and statistical inferences have not yet been well established. The goal of this paper is to construct the sublinear expectation regression and investigate its statistical inference. First, a sublinear expectation linear regression is defined and its identifiability is given. Then, based on the representation theorem of sublinear expectation and the newly defined model, several parameter estimations and model predictions are suggested, the asymptotic normality of estimations and the mini-max property of predictions are obtained. Furthermore, new methods are developed to realize variable selection for high-dimensional model. Finally, simulation studies and a real-life example are carried out to illustrate the new models and methodologies. All notions and methodologies developed are essentially different from classical ones and can be thought of as a foundation for general nonlinear expectation statistics.
Synergy, suppression and immorality: forward differences of the entropy function

Conditional mutual information is important in the selection and interpretation of graphical models. Its empirical version is well known as a generalised likelihood ratio test and that it may be represented as a difference in entropy. We consider the forward difference expansion of the entropy function defined on all subsets of the variables under study. The elements of this expansion are invariant to permutation of their suffices and relate higher order mutual informations to lower order ones. The third order difference is expressible as an, apparently assymmetric, difference between a marginal and a conditional mutual information. Its role in the decomposition for explained information provides a technical definition for synergy between three random variables. Positive values occur when two variables provide alternative explanations for a third; negative values, termed synergies, occur when the sum of explained information is greater than the sum of its parts. Synergies tend to be infrequent; they connect the seemingly unrelated concepts of suppressor variables in regression, on the one hand, and unshielded colliders in Bayes networks (immoralities), on the other. We give novel characterizations of these phenomena that generalise to categorical variables and to higher dimensions. We propose an algorithm for systematically computing low order differences from a given graph. Examples from small scale real-life studies indicate the potential of these techniques for empirical statistical analysis.
Guaranteed Model Order Estimation and Sample Complexity Bounds for LDA

The question of how to determine the number of independent latent factors (topics) in mixture models such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) is of great practical importance. In most applications, the exact number of topics is unknown, and depends on the application and the size of the data set. Bayesian nonparametric methods can avoid the problem of topic number selection, but they can be impracticably slow for large sample sizes and are subject to local optima. We develop a guaranteed procedure for topic number recovery that does not necessitate learning the model's latent parameters beforehand. Our procedure relies on adapting results from random matrix theory. Performance of our topic number recovery procedure is superior to hLDA, a nonparametric method. We also discuss some implications of our results on the sample complexity and accuracy of popular spectral learning algorithms for LDA. Our results and procedure can be extended to spectral learning algorithms for other exchangeable mixture models as well as Hidden Markov Models.
High-Dimensional Bayesian Inference in Nonparametric Additive Models

A fully Bayesian approach is proposed for ultrahigh-dimensional nonparametric additive models in which the number of additive components may be larger than the sample size, though ideally the true model is believed to include only a small number of components. Bayesian approaches can conduct stochastic model search and fulfill flexible parameter estimation by stochastic draws. The theory shows that the proposed model selection method has satisfactory properties. For instance, when the hyperparameter associated with the model prior is correctly specified, the true model has posterior probability approaching one as the sample size goes to infinity; when this hyperparameter is incorrectly specified, the selected model is still acceptable since asymptotically it is proved to be nested in the true model. To enhance model flexibility, two new $g$-priors are proposed and their theoretical performance is examined. We also propose an efficient MCMC algorithm to handle the computational issues. Several simulation examples are provided to demonstrate the computational advantages of our method.
Stochastic Mechanistic Interaction

We define mechanistic interaction between the effects of two variables on an outcome in terms of departure of these effects from a generalized noisy-OR model in a stratum of the population. We develop a fully probabilistic framework for the observational identification of this type of interaction via excess risk or superadditivity, one novel feature of which is its applicability when the interacting variables have been generated by arbitrarily dichotomizing continuous exposures. The method allows for stochastic mediators of the interacting effects. The required assumptions are provided in the form of conditional independencies between the problem variables, which may relate to a causal-graph representation of the problem. We also develop a theory of mechanistic interaction between effects associated with specific paths of the causal graph.
A coordinate-wise optimization algorithm for the Fused Lasso

L1-penalized regression methods such as the Lasso (Tibshirani 1996) that achieve both variable selection and shrinkage have been very popular. An extension of this method is the Fused Lasso (Tibshirani and Wang 2007), which allows for the incorporation of external information into the model. In this article, we develop new and fast algorithms for solving the Fused Lasso which are based on coordinate-wise optimization. This class of algorithms has recently been applied very successfully to solve L1-penalized problems very quickly (Friedman et al. 2007). As a straightforward coordinate-wise procedure does not converge to the global optimum in general, we adapt it in two ways, using maximum-flow algorithms and a Huber penalty based approximation to the loss function. In a simulation study, we evaluate the speed of these algorithms and compare them to other standard methods. As the Huber-penalty based method is only approximate, we also evaluate its accuracy. Apart from this, we also extend the Fused Lasso to logistic as well as proportional hazards models and allow for a more flexible penalty structure.