CEMAF as a Census Method: A Proposal for a Re-Designed Census and a Re-Designed Census Bureau*

Social Statistics Section – JSM 2010 CEMAF as a Census Method: A Proposal for a Re-Designed Census and a Re-Designed Census Bureau* David A. Swanson 1 , Paula J. Walashek 2 University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA 92521 USA Norfolk, VA 23503 USA Abstract We propose a census based neither on door-to-door canvassing nor self-enumeration, but rather, on a combination of four elements: (1) administrative records; (2) the continuously updated Master Address File; (3) survey data; and (4) modeling techniques. We use “Census-Enhanced Master Address File” (CEMAF) as a descriptive term for our re-designed census. We also provide in our full paper recommendations about the administrative structure, legal and regulatory foundation, and working culture of the Census Bureau that are designed to support CEMAF. The proposal is designed to maintain accuracy, functionality, and usability while curtailing both increased non-response rates and costs, major problems facing the U.S. Census. It is guided by four principles: (1) Applied Demography; (2) Check and Balance; (3) Separation; and (4) the four essential features of a census. Key Words: Master Address File, Survey Data, Administrative Records, Modeling Techniques 1. Introduction There has been a fair amount of discussion about re-designing the U.S. Census and much of the driving force has to do with increasing non-response rates and increasing costs (see, e.g., Edmonston, 2001; Edmonston and Schultze, 1995; Cork, Cohen, and King, 2004). It is not often that somebody gets a chance to completely re-design the US Census and we are grateful for the opportunity to provide our proposal for this task, hypothetical as it may be. As can be seen in the title, we propose a census based neither on the current system, self-enumeration, nor its predecessor, door-to-door canvassing. Instead, we propose that it be built upon a combination of four elements: (1) administrative records; (2) the continuously updated Master Address File; (3) survey data; and (4) modeling and imputation techniques, including record-linkage methods. We use the “Census-Enhanced Master Address File” (CEMAF) as a descriptive term for our re-designed census. The term CEMAF is derived from “EMAF” (Enhanced Master Address File), a proposal by Swanson and McKibben (2010) for a re-designed population estimation system. CEMAF is aimed at curtailing both increasing non-response rates and increasing costs while maintaining reasonable levels of accuracy, functionality, and usability. Three of the four elements on which our CEMAF proposal stem from work done in regard to: (1) an Administrative Records Census (Alvey and Scheuren, 1982; Judson, 2000; 2003; Judson and Bauder, 2002; Kliss and Alvey 1984; Prevost, 1996; Prevost and Leggieri, 1999; Scheuren, 1999); (2) the use of survey data; and (3) record linkage, and both modeling and imputation methods to augment census data (Allison, 2001; Blum, 1999; Fay, 2005; Fellegi and Sunter, 1969; Judson, 2007; Kalton, 1983; Liu, 2007, 2008; Myrskyla, 1991; Peterson, 1999; Rubin, 2004; Scheuren, 1999; Statistics Canada, 2009; Statistics Finland, 2004; Swanson and Knight, 1998; Thomsen and Holmoy, 1998). However, we have the advantage of being able to add an important accomplishment to this earlier work, the advent of MAF, a continuously updated Master Address File (Brown, Cohen, and Cork, 2008; Devine and Coleman, 2003; Hakanson, 2007; Swanson and McKibben, 2010), which forms the fourth element of our proposed system.