Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Disagreement, Excess Volatility and Comovement in Stock Returns

This paper analyzes the impact of dispersion and correlation in investors’ beliefs on the cross-section of volatilities and correlations in stock returns. Theoretically, we show that, in a baseline model with logarithmic agents and constant beliefs, there is a positive relationship between belief dispersion and stock volatility, and a positive relationship between belief correlation and return correlation. Extensions to CRRA preference, learning, and multiple agents show that the baseline results are generally robust for reasonable model parameter values. Empirically, we find supporting evidence on the theoretical predictions of the baseline model using analysts’ forecasts of earnings as a proxy for investors’ beliefs, suggesting that disagreement provides a plausible explanation to the excess volatility and comovement in stock returns.
Product Market Competition, Corporate Governance, and Firm Value: Evidence from the EU-Area

This paper investigates whether the valuation effect of corporate governance depends on the degree of competition in the companies’ product markets in a large international sample covering 14 countries from the European Union (EU). Besides providing external validity of previous U.S.-centered studies, this paper uses more comprehensive and reliable measures of both product market competition and corporate governance. Consistent with the hypothesis that product market competition acts as a substitute for corporate governance as competitive pressure imposes discipline on managers to maximize firm value, our results show that corporate governance significantly increases firm value in non-competitive industries only. When investigating the channels through which firm value may be increased, we find that good governance for firms in non-competitive industries leads them to have more capital expenditures, spend less on acquisitions, and be less likely to diversify. Our results are robust to a large number of robustness checks including the use of alternative measures of competition and governance, as well as using alternative regression specifications.
A new skink species (Oligosoma taumakae sp. nov.; Reptilia: Scincidae) from the Open Bay Islands, New Zealand

Abstract We describe a new skink species (Oligosoma taumakae sp. nov.) from the Open Bay Islands, New Zealand. This species is diagnosed on the basis of several morphological characteristics, and its specific status is supported by mitochondrial sequence data (ND2, ND4). The new species appears to be most closely related to O. acrinasum, O. infra‐punctatum, O. otagense and O. waimatense. The new taxon appears to be rare and endemic to the island of Taumaka in the Open Bay Islands (off the west coast of the South Island). Predation by a flightless rail (weka, Gallirallus australis), native to New Zealand but introduced to the Open Bay Islands, is a major conservation concern.
The Incidence of Nominal and Real Wage Rigidities in Great Britain: 1978-1998

This paper analyzes the extent of rigidities in wage setting in Great Britain over the 1980s and 1990s. Our estimation strategy, which generalizes the work of Altonji and Devereux (2000), models the notional wage growth distribution - the distribution of nominal wage growth that would occur in the absence of rigidities in pay - while allowing for the presence of measurement error in the data. The model then allows for the possibility that the nominal wage growth of a fraction of the workforce may be subject to a nominal or real downward rigidity. Our model suggests that real rigidities in wage setting are more prevalent than nominal rigidities, although the incidence of these real wage rigidities has fallen gradually over time. If firms cannot cut real wages in response to negative demand shocks they may resort to laying off workers. Our results support this microfoundation of the wage-unemployment Phillips curve: Workers who are more likely to be protected from wage cuts are also more likely to lose their jobs.
Pre-Opening Price Indications and Market Quality: Evidence from NYSE Rule 48

This paper explores the role of pre-opening price signals in price discovery and liquidity. NYSE Rule 48 suspends the responsibility of designated market makers for disseminating pre-opening price indications in the event of extreme market-wide volatility. Rule 48 speeds up the opening of stocks at the expense of lower liquidity. The absence of pre-opening price indications results in a decrease in liquidity during the first 30-minutes of the trading day. We interpret this finding as evidence that liquidity suppliers are less willing to provide liquidity in the absence of a reference point or benchmark regarding the value of a stock.
Predictability in Commodity Markets: Evidence from More Than a Century

Using more than 140 years of data, we comprehensively analyze the predictive power of a broad set of macroeconomic variables for risk and return in commodity spot markets. We find that industrial production growth and inflation are the strongest predictors for future commodity excess returns. Many further variables help predict future commodity volatilities. The introduction of derivatives generally reduces the predictability in the most active commodity markets but increases the predictability in others. Thus, derivatives likely make markets more efficient, but also attract most of the price discovering activity. Commodity spot volatilities generally rise after futures introduction.
Relationship between temperature and flowering in almond

Records of flowering in 12 almond cultivars over 7 years, together with temperature records from a standard climate station, were used to estimate the chilling requirement for dormancy break in flower buds and the heat sum requirements for floral development in each cultivar. Hourly temperatures were estimated from daily minimum and maximum temperatures. A continuous function relating hourly temperatures to rate of chilling was used to calculate daily chill unit accumulations. Requirements of 220-320 chill units were estimated and calculated heat sum requirements ranged from 5300 to 8900 growing-degree-hours above 4-5°C. These requirements were used to estimate the dates of 50% flowering for 1958-84.
Experimental Methods for Crop–Weed Competition Studies

The annual global economic loss caused by weeds has been estimated at more than $100 billion U.S. dollars (Appleby et al. 2000). Additionally, worldwide annual herbicide sales are in the range of U.S. $25 billion (Agrow 2003). In light of these large dollar figures, it becomes clear that a greater understanding of crop–weed interactions is essential in order to develop cost-effective and sustainable weed management practices. Crop–weed competition studies can provide valuable information to farmers and land managers on whether weed control is warranted, and if so, what is the optimal timing to implement weed control practices. For example, the development of economic weed thresholds aids farmers in making decisions about the necessity of weed control and the cost effectiveness of various weed control options. Knowledge of critical periods for weed control assists growers in determining when, or when not, to pursue further weed control measures to protect crop yield. Crop–weed competition studies can provide information on the merits of various components of a cropping system. Crop rotation, intercropping, seeding rates, row spacing, and fertilizer placement are components of a cropping system that will invariably influence the competitiveness of the crop or the weed, or both. Competitive cropping systems that enhance crop establishment, rate of leaf appearance, and canopy cover will reduce weed competition and costs associated with weed control. Competition studies can also contribute to our understanding of how species fitness is influenced by selection pressures imposed by the agronomic practices of the cropping system. For example, the fitness of herbicide-resistant weed biotypes compared with susceptible weed populations can provide important biological information on the physiological costs associated with the herbicideresistant trait. This knowledge can be very useful in predicting the invasive potential of resistant weed biotypes over time and may provide insight for effective control strategies.
Engel's Law in the Global Economy: Demand-Induced Patterns of Structural Change, Innovation and Trade

Endogenous demand composition across sectors due to nonhomothetic demand (Engel’s Law) affects i) sectoral compositions in employment and in value-added, ii) variations in innovation rates and in productivity change across sectors, iii) intersectoral patterns of trade across countries, and iv) migration of industries from rich to poor countries. This paper offers a unifying perspective on how economic growth and globalization affect the patterns of structural change, innovation and trade across countries and across sectors in the presence of Engel’s Law. To this end, we develop a two-country model of directed technological change with a continuum of sectors under nonhomothetic preferences, which is rich enough to capture all these effects as well as their interactions. Among the main messages is that globalization amplifies, instead of reducing, the power of endogenous domestic demand composition differences as a driver of structural change.
Prediction of Realized Volatility Based on Realized-GARCH-Kernel Model: The Comparison of CHINA and US

We propose a Realized-GARCH-Kernel model to predict realized volatilities of 50 ETF in China and S&P500 index in U.S.The Kernel density fitting on disturbance term and semi-parametric method make our model perform well both statistically and economically. First, our model has the lowest in- and out-of-sample prediction errors among five comparable prediction models. The result is robust in eight measures of realized volatility. Second, in both China and U.S. markets, straddle option trading strategies with volatilities predicted with our model generate larger monthly profit and greater Sharpe ratio. Our model is useful in practical investment.
Atlantic Trade and the Decline of Conflict in Europe

We use over 250 years of conflict and market integration data to provide the first evidence that Atlantic trade contributed to Europe's pacification between 1640 and 1896. While the decline in conflict in Europe during this period has been well documented, the role of Atlantic trade has not been previously explored due to a lack of historical trade data. We overcome this constraint by using wheat prices to calculate time-varying measures of market integration between Europe and the New World, which we use as a proxy for Atlantic trade. To identify the causal effects of Atlantic trade, we exploit exogenous changes in wind patterns and tropical cyclone activity over the Atlantic Ocean to instrument trade. Our results suggest that the growth in Atlantic trade between the mid-17th to the early 19th century lowered the probability of intra-European conflict onset by 14.90 percent. We find empirical support for two channels driving our results: first, Atlantic trade led to an increase in real wages and a reduction in both army and navy sizes in Europe. Second, we show that the possibility of forgone Atlantic trade acted as a deterrent to conflict.
Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting

A four-year series of subjective probability forecasting tournaments sponsored by the U.S. intelligence community revealed a host of replicable drivers of predictive accuracy, including experimental interventions such as training in probabilistic reasoning, anti‐groupthink teaming, and tracking of talent. Drawing on these data, we propose a Bayesian BIN model (Bias, Information, Noise) for disentangling the underlying processes that enable forecasters and forecasting methods to improve—either by tamping down bias and noise in judgment or by ramping up the efficient extraction of valid information from the environment. The BIN model reveals that noise reduction plays a surprisingly consistent role across all three methods of enhancing performance. We see the BIN method as useful in focusing managerial interventions on what works when and why in a wide range of domains. An R-package called BINtools implements our method and is available on the first author’s personal website. This paper was accepted by Manel Baucells, decision analysis.
Hand-to-mouth Consumption and Calorie Consciousness: Consequences for Junk-food Taxation

Junk-food taxes have mixed effects on obesity and junk-food consumption. We build a theoretical model to explain empirical results and better understand how to address the obesity crisis. In our framework, hand-to-mouth consumers make an intertemporal choice between junk-food consumption and weight loss. Their choice depends on calorie consciousness, which is influenced by perceived after-tax relative prices and educational attainment. Thus, a junk-food tax modifies consumers’ intertemporal choice both through their budget constraint and calorie consciousness. As a result, the effect of the tax on body weight reflects competing income, intertemporal substitution, and calorie-consciousness effects. The model explains empirical observations such as the recent rise in obesity and differences in weight outcomes for different income levels. The model explains circumstances under which junk-food taxes can be effective or ineffective to reduce body weight as well as differences in elasticities of high-calorie food consumption for high- and low-income earners.
Phasal Polarity in Abaza

Phasal polarity (PhP) is a cross-linguistic category which includes such values as ᴀʟʀᴇᴀᴅ�? , ɴ�? ᴛ �? ᴇᴛ, sᴛɪʟʟ and ɴ�? ʟ�? ɴɢᴇʀ. This paper discusses morphologically bound markers of phasal polarity in Abaza, a polysynthetic Northwest Caucasian language. We show that the Abaza PhP affixes χ’a ‘already’, -s (+ negation) ‘not yet’, -rḳʷa ‘still’ and -χ (+ negation) ‘no longer’ are partly incorporated into the TAM system and that for at least some of them it is unclear whether they belong to the domain of phasal polarity or the phasal domain in a narrow sense (i.e. including values ʙᴇɢɪɴ, ᴄ�? ɴᴛɪɴᴜᴇ, etc.). We also present some preliminary data concerning the obligatoriness of Abaza PhP markers and their frequencies in texts
Emission Levels and Greenhouse Gas Emissions Disclosure: Evidence From Private Firms

Previous financial disclosure literature suggests that private and public firms exhibit different characteristics in their financial reporting behavior. And yet literature on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions disclosure has so far paid little attention to private firms, despite the fact that this type of firm is responsible for significant GHG emissions. This study analyzes the GHG disclosure behavior of German private firms, considering not only the typical theoretical foundations in environmental disclosure literature – approaches from sociopolitical theories – but also arguments from disclosure theory. The results suggest that if a private firm’s decision to disclose GHG emissions information is divided into two sequential steps – the first step being to decide whether or not to disclose such information, and the second being to decide on the extent of the information to be disclosed – these two steps can be assigned to two different disclosure incentives: the initial disclosure decision seems to be triggered by sociopolitical issues, while the decision on the extent of disclosure is driven by information demands of capital providers.
Animal Mating Systems: A Synthesis Based on Selection Theory

Following principles used by A. J. Bateman, we identify the relationship between fecundity and mating success as the central feature in the operation of mating systems. Using selection theory from the field of quantitative genetics, we define the sexual selection gradient as the average slope of the relationship between fecundity and mating success and show how it can be estimated from data. We argue that sexual selection gradients are the key to understanding how the intensity of sexual selection is affected by mate provisioning, parental investment, and sex ratio.
When to Ally? Labor Protection and Firm Growth Strategies

We study how increases in employment protection through the passage of state laws affect strategic alliance formation and firm’s choice of growth strategy. We show that, following the adoption of these laws, there is a significant increase in strategic alliance activities, especially among high growth firms. More importantly, there is a shift away from capital-intensive investments, such as internal capital expenditures and M&As towards the more flexible strategic alliance. We also find that firms that form strategic alliances following the adoption of the law have higher innovation output. Overall, our findings are consistent with employment protection making investments within the firm more irreversible and leading them to seek alternative growth strategies by moving investments outside their boundaries through strategic alliance formation.
Aerial baiting for wild dogs has no observable impact on spotted-tailed quolls (Dasyurus maculatus) in a rainshadow woodland

The short-term impact of 1080 aerial baiting for wild dogs (Canis lupus dingo, Canis lupus familiaris and hybrids of the two) on spotted-tailed quolls (Dasyurus maculatus) was investigated at a rainshadow woodland site in southern New South Wales, Australia. Sixteen quolls were trapped and fitted with radio-transmitters containing mortality sensors. Three feral cats were also opportunistically trapped and radio-collared. One week after trapping ceased, meat baits nominally containing 6 mg of 1080 poison and 50 mg of the biomarker rhodamine B were deployed aerially over a 10-km transect across the study area. Following bait deployment, collared quolls and cats were monitored daily over four weeks for evidence of mortality. During this time, one quoll and two cats died. The quoll did not die from 1080 but both cats showed clear signs of poisoning. Whisker samples were obtained from trapped quolls 5–8 weeks after baiting to determine whether they had been exposed to baits. Of the 15 remaining collared quolls, 12 were retrapped. Four of these tested positive for rhodamine B. Three individuals originally collared were not retrapped but confirmed alive at least seven weeks after bait deployment. A further six non-collared quolls were also trapped, with two of these positive for rhodamine B. Of the 19 quolls from which whisker samples were tested for rhodamine B then, 13 (68%) were negative and six (32%) were positive. Aerial baiting had no observable impact on the local radio-collared quoll population, a finding consistent with results from a similar study recently conducted in northern New South Wales.
Migration Timing and River Survival of Late‐Run Fraser River Sockeye Salmon Estimated Using Radiotelemetry Techniques

Abstract In recent years, large numbers of late-run Fraser River sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka have died in freshwater areas before they spawned. We used radiotelemetry techniques to determine river entry timing, migration rates, and survival for the summer and late runs of sockeye salmon in 2002 and 2003. Fishery removals and river detections accounted for 62% of the 873 fish tagged and released in marine areas in 2002. Some late-run fish migrated from release sites to the Mission hydroacoustic site in 8–10 d and migrated upstream with the summer run. Most late-run fish remained in the Strait of Georgia for 15–33 d and entered the river after the summer run. Tracking data indicated that individual sockeye salmon maintained essentially the same chronological order as they migrated up the Fraser and Thompson rivers. Summer-run stocks traveled faster between Mission and the Thompson Junction (33–39 km/d) than late-run fish (17–21 km/d). After accounting for fishery removals, the river survival rate for .
Optimal Spatial Pricing for an On-demand Ride-sourcing Service Platform

This paper investigates a long-term optimal spatial pricing strategy for a ride-sourcing platform that serves a particular (possibly populated) area with profit-driven service providers (i.e., drivers) and time- and price- sensitive customers. By observing that oftentimes, the pricing strategy is anisotropic and spatially dependent, and both the supply and request rates are endogenous, we build an analytical bi-level optimization model. In the upper-level formulation, the ride-sourcing platform aims to set up the spatially heterogeneous pricing strategy to maximize its total profit. While in the lower level, we solve the trip distribution model that characterizes the optimal flow rates among zones given the travel demand rate at each zone. We prove that when the platform seeks to expand its business, the optimal number of participating drivers and their optimal wages will be influenced not only by the pricing strategy but also by the levels of service of the service zones. Our further investigation shows that the profit at a particular zone can be also influenced by the potential customers' service requests from the other zones. Finally, we use the real-world data provided by DiDi Chuxing to numerically validate our theoretical results.
How Do Opportunistic Disclosures Impact Nonprofessional Investors’ Decision Making? Disinhibiting and Inhibiting Mechanisms

We report the results of an experiment where management discloses in the audited financial statements an opportunistic firm-specific capital structure. This disclosure, required under current IAS 1 rules, is subjective and susceptible to management bias. In our study, if used by nonprofessional investor participants, the disclosed capital structure will lead to higher firm values than would capital structures commonly determined from the firm’s balance sheet. Our results show that the opportunistic capital structure note disclosure influences nonprofessional investors’ judgment and decision making. Indirect effects provide evidence of causal reasons why this occurs. When provided the note disclosure, nonprofessional investors value the firm greater and believe it is a more attractive investment which function as disinhibiting mechanisms underlying stock purchasing decisions. In contrast, nonprofessional investors’ ability to recognize bias in the firm’s financial reporting operates as an inhibiting mechanism underlying stock purchasing decisions. We also find cautioning participants of management’s ability to distort the disclosure had no effect, differing from prior research. Our study adds to the disclosure literature and has important implications for investors, standard setters, and auditors as it raises questions of how to protect society from permitted opportunistic accounting disclosures. <br>
The CV Makes the Difference – Control Variates for Neural Networks

We consider the application of a control variate technique for Deep Learning. In analogy to applications for Monte Carlo simulation or Fourier integration methods, this technique improves the quality of deep learning applied to option pricing problems. Many well known approximation methods are limited for practical applications but can be used as a control variate. For instance approximation formulas for SABR or the Black-Scholes price when pricing options in the Heston model. The neural network is only applied to calculate the difference to an accurate numerical method. In this way we increase the accuracy of applying neural nets since a large portion of the price is already mimicked by the control variate. This may result in a higher acceptance of such numerical techniques for financial applications.