The negative educational gradient in divorce : Do the lower educated have worse marriages ?

The relationship between education and divorce has recently reversed in several countries with less educated men and women being currently more likely to divorce. This carries potential implications for class and gender inequalities in family life, wellbeing, and children’s life chances. However, little is known about why the least educated currently have lower family stability. Two main explanations can be identified in the literature. First, those with less education could have lower marital satisfaction. Second, those with less education could have lower thresholds to divorce. Relationship dissolution means that a person also gives up access to their partners’ resources. If spouses possess many resources, the drop in marital satisfaction required to motivate a person to divorce might therefore be higher. Empirical evidence so far has not provided evidence that the educational gradient in divorce is explained by variation in marital satisfaction or variation in exit thresholds by educational groups. We use data from the British Household Panel Survey to analyze the trends in marital satisfaction among educational groups and the risks of divorce in these groups given satisfaction levels. We find that marital satisfaction trajectories are practically identical for people with distinct levels of education. The hypothesis that lower educated people have worse relationships therefore did not hold. Marital satisfaction trajectories did not change the coefficient for education when explaining divorce risk. We tested for the validity of a selection and income loss explanation of Do the Lower Educated Have Worse Marriages? 2 variation in exit thresholds. We observed that only income considerations were able to explain part of the educational gradient. The relationship between education and divorce has recently reversed in several countries with less educated men and women being currently more likely to divorce (De Graaf & Kalmijn, 2004; Härkonen & Dronkers, 2006; Jalovaara, 2003; Lyngstad, 2004; Teachman, 2002). This carries potential implications for class and gender inequalities in family life, well-being, and children‟s life chances (McLanahan, 2004; McLanahan & Percheski, 2008). However, little is known about why the least educated currently have lower family stability. The negative education gradient also being observed for women contradicts predictions from the Beckerian model of household behavior (Becker, 1981). Two main explanations can be identified in the literature. First, those with less education have lower marital satisfaction. This might be because they experience more financial pressures and related problems that could destabilize relationships (Conger et al., 1990; Ono, 1998; Oppenheimer, 1997; Rogers, 2004; Sayer & Bianchi, 2000; Schoen, Rogers & Amato, 2006; Teachman, 2010). Or it could be that the lower educated individuals possess fewer skills and abilities that make relationships work. For instance, certain communication skills might prevent conflicts from escalating and affecting the stability of a couple (Amato, 1996; Donnellan et al., 2004; Blazys, 2009; Dronkers, 2002; Holley et al., 2006). In these cases differences in relationship satisfaction should explain the negative educational gradient in divorce. Second, those with less education could have lower thresholds to divorce (Amato et al., 2007; Amato & Hohmann-Marriot, 2007; Amato, 2010). For instance, relationship dissolution means that a person also gives up access to their partners‟ resources. If spouses possess many Do the Lower Educated Have Worse Marriages? 3 resources, the drop in marital satisfaction required to motivate a person to divorce might therefore be higher. Empirical research has so far not provided evidence whether the current negative educational gradient in divorce reflects variation in marital satisfaction or variation in exit thresholds by educational groups. We use data from the British Household Panel Survey to analyze the trends in marital satisfaction among educational groups and the risks of divorce in these groups given satisfaction levels. The main research question of this article is therefore: Can the negative educational gradient in divorce in Britain be explained by differences in marital satisfaction trajectories, and why? In the next section, literature on the educational gradient in divorce will be discussed, followed by an empirical analysis investigating the research question posed. Education and Divorce Concerns about increasing family polarization have first been formulated in the context of the United States (McLanahan, 2004). But, a body of European research has also noticed trends towards increasing family polarization in several countries (Bernardi & Martinez-Pastor, 2010; De Graaf & Kalmijn, 2004; Härkonen & Dronkers, 2006; Jalovaara, 2003; Lyngstad, 2004; Teachman, 2002). When focusing on divorce, the observed trends are in line with the expectations of Goode (1962; 1970; 1993). Goode argued that over time, it will first be the individuals with many resources that will divorce most. Resources are needed to overcome legal, social and financial barriers. Once divorce becomes more wide-spread, institutions adapt and those barriers are likely to become smaller. When the costs related to divorce decrease, the lower educated, who have less resources, are enabled to divorce too. Because lower educated people might experience more pressure to the couple and/or have less relationship skills, they are Do the Lower Educated Have Worse Marriages? 4 ultimately expected to divorce most once barriers have faded out. This trend has been observed in many countries, suggesting that, indeed, when constraints are lifted, the unions of the lower educated are less stable (Härkonen & Dronkers, 2006). While the trends fit the theory, two parts still need empirical verification. Firstly, it needs to be established why the lower educated are today more prone to divorce. Secondly, it has to be examined whether these factors also explain the change in the educational gradient over time, which does not necessarily have to be the case. In this article, we focus only on the first part. Our aim is to explain the current negative educational gradient, and not change over time, which will be left for future research. Why do lower educated people divorce more than others? The most straightforward explanation is that lower educated people have less satisfying marriages. This might be because they experience more financial pressures and employment disruptions. A large body of research has shown that income and employment do affect relationship stability (Conger et al., 1990; Ono, 1998; Oppenheimer, 1997; Rogers, 2004; Sayer & Bianchi, 2000; Schoen, Rogers & Amato, 2006; Teachman, 2010; Hankins and Hoekstra, 2011;