Counterfactuals and Romantic Life Experiences: A Longitudinal Study of the Benefits of Thinking What Might Have Been

A volume of research has found that although downward counterfactuals make people feel better in the moment, upward counterfactuals have been shown to better motivate individuals to change future behaviour for the better. However, there is a lack of research of the long-term impact of counterfactual thoughts, specifically applied to the romantic life domain. The present research investigated the influence of upward versus downward counterfactuals in individuals’ romantic lives over time. Participants were recruited from Canada, USA, Australia, and Great Britain. Through Amazon Mechanical Turk, 267 participants completed 1 survey, while 91 participants completed an additional 2 sessions with approximately 14 days between each (for a total of 3 surveys). There was moderate support for the benefits of upward counterfactual thinking over time. Implications and future directions for research are discussed. ROMANTIC LIFE AND COUNTERFACTUALS 3 Thank you to Professor Mike Morrison, for all he has taught me about planning and executing good research; and thank you to Professor David Bell, for his numerous hours spent guiding me through statistical analyses. What they have taught me will, without a doubt, carry me through my subsequent academic career. ROMANTIC LIFE AND COUNTERFACTUALS 4 Counterfactuals and Romantic Life Experiences: The Benefits of Thinking What Might Have Been Whether it be a crush, a new dating partner, or a long-term relationship, most of us think about our romantic life quite frequently. Sometimes individuals think about events that have occurred in their romantic life, and wish certain aspects happened differently. Maybe it’s a missed opportunity with a crush, maybe they played it safe when they could have taken a risk, or maybe they shied away when they really just wanted to kiss that someone special. These consuming thoughts of how events in our romantic life could have occurred differently are examples of counterfactual thoughts; thoughts about how events could have occurred differently than they did (Epstude & Roese, 2007; Epstude & Roese, 2008; Roese, 1997). Counterfactual thoughts have the potential to make an individual feel very poorly (Meier, 2002; Roese, 1994). However, the negative feelings they facilitate can actually be beneficial to the individual in the future. When an individual feels poorly following a counterfactual thought, they are often motivated to change their behaviour so this does not happen in the future (Epstude & Roese, 2008; Meier, 2002; Roese, 1994). The influence of counterfactuals on intentions of future behaviour is what makes them potentially beneficial; however, there is little longitudinal research on the impact of counterfactual thoughts. This leaves many questions regarding counterfactual thoughts and their long-term influence on intentions and behaviour unanswered. The present research will not only contribute to the growing body of knowledge regarding counterfactuals and behaviours within romantic relationships, but will also contribute novel information by investigating the role of counterfactual thoughts in shaping intentions and behaviour over time. ROMANTIC LIFE AND COUNTERFACTUALS 5 Counterfactual Thoughts Counterfactual thoughts typically go one of two ways: one can generate thoughts of how things could have turned out better, or how things could have turned out worse. These two generations of thought have two separate classifications, upward or downward counterfactuals (respectively). In a downward counterfactual, an individual compares a factual occurrence to how it could have been worse. For example, an individual has a bad date. After the date, the individual thinks to themselves, “well, at least I had a date in the first place. Better luck next time. ” This direction of thinking facilitates a more positive outlook, and therefore a better mood following the downward counterfactual (Roese, 1994). On the contrary, an individual can generate an upward counterfactual following a less desirable scenario. In an upward counterfactual, the individual compares the actual outcome to how it could have transpired more favourably. In the case of the bad date, an individual now thinks to themselves, “if only I had been funnier, maybe he would have liked me more. ” Following the upward counterfactual, the individual feels more negatively about themselves and the situation (Meier, 2002; Roese, 1994). Although in the short term the consequences of the downward counterfactual are more pleasant, in the long run there are typically greater benefits to experiencing an upward counterfactual. That is, upward counterfactuals can often facilitate a behavioural intention, for instance, “next time I will tell more jokes so he thinks I’m funny,” (Epstude & Roese, 2008). This behavioural intention is a result of feeling poorly following an upward counterfactual, and wanting to correct the behaviour to alleviate the negative feelings and prevent the negative experience from recurring. These beneficial behavioural intentions are not seen to be as common with downward counterfactuals (Roese, 1994). ROMANTIC LIFE AND COUNTERFACTUALS 6 Counterfactuals, Intentions, and Motivations The process in which upward counterfactuals facilitate behavioural intentions can be described by the functional theory of counterfactual thinking (Epstude & Roese, 2008). Generally, the theory states that counterfactual thoughts are functional because they can motivate us to change our future behaviour. The thoughts are triggered based on two elements: there is a deficit, and the thought will change or end the deficit. However, this does not address why individuals would be motivated to change the undesirable behaviour in the first place. The norm theory suggests experiences that deviate from the norm activate thoughts similar to counterfactuals (Kahneman & Miller, 1986). These thoughts produce hypotheticals scenarios that would have been more in line with normal behaviour. As restoring normal behaviour is the goal, the norm theory suggests this is how counterfactuals generate motivation. The literature supports that upward counterfactuals, or reflections of how things could have turned out better, have the power to change one’s future behaviour by increasing intentions and motivation (Epstude & Roese, 2008; Meier, 2002). An upward counterfactual forces an individual to mentally map out how they could have facilitated a better outcome. Not surprisingly, this makes an individual feel poorly regarding their past behaviour. This alone is typically enough to motivate one to improve in the future, as the upward counterfactual is commonly followed by thoughts that would correct this behaviour in the future. Individuals seek congruence with their thoughts and their actions, which solidifies the motivation to change behaviour in the future (Epstude & Roese, 2008). There is doubt regarding the precedence of upward counterfactuals and negative mood. Although it is documented that upward counterfactuals produce negative mood (Meier, 2002; Roese, 1994), we also see the relationship work in the opposite direction, that is, negative mood ROMANTIC LIFE AND COUNTERFACTUALS 7 producing more upward counterfactuals (Meier, 2002). A study done by Markman, McMullen, and Elizaga’s (2008) demonstrated the influence of upward counterfactuals to generate negative mood and therefore increase motivation. In the study, participants were given an anagram task, followed by reflective and evaluative questions regarding their performance on the anagram task (counterfactual manipulation applied here), which was followed up by a second anagram test. Participants that generated upward (evaluative) counterfactuals were more persistent in finishing their second anagram task, but also performed better on the second anagram task than participants in the downward counterfactual and control groups. The relationship was significantly mediated by mood. This is evidence that manipulation of counterfactual thoughts in the upward direction generates negative mood and motivation for future performance in individuals. Along with generating motivation, it is important to understand how counterfactuals can create intention for future behaviour in individuals. Roese (1994) investigated this idea in academic performance in students. Participants were asked to reflect on a recent academic performance that was inadequate to their personal standard. Upon reflection, participants were asked to list ways they could have performed better (upward counterfactual) or worse (downward counterfactual), depending on their assigned experimental condition. Roese (1994) found that participants in the upward counterfactual condition indicated greater intention to implement behaviours that would promote success in school in the future. Thus, the upward counterfactual thought was successful in increasing intention to perform better in the future when applied to an education domain. Though counterfactual thoughts can generate intention, it is important to understand the specific qualities of the counterfactual and the qualities of the behavioural intention following ROMANTIC LIFE AND COUNTERFACTUALS 8 the counterfactual in order for the intention to successfully change behaviour. Over the course of 3 experiments, Smallman and Roese (2009) examined the influence of two counterfactual pathways for intention to successfully change behaviour. The first would be having the same semantic content, this is referred to as a content-specific pathway. For example, if a counterfactual thought regarding one’s romantic life generates a specific goal regarding their romantic life, such as improve communication with their partner, this would be considered a content-specific pathway. However, if a counterfactual thought increases general motivation to improve aspects of life, it is referred to as a content-neutral pathway. There is some support that content-neutral pathways mediate the relatio