Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Euro area exports and imports: Do determinants of intra- and extra-EMU trade differ?

The attempt is to explain EMU exports and imports, treating the euro area as one single economy. EMU trade is analysed separately for intra- and extra-EMU trade. One result of this approach is that extra- and intra-EMU trade seem to follow a different pattern. Therefore, a separate estimation seems preferable. This is especially true for exports. For imports, the mistake made seems to be smaller. Interestingly, the aggregate of intra- and extra-EMU trade seems to be dominated by the pattern of extra-EMU trade, although both sub-aggregates are of a similar size: Estimation equations for aggregate EMU exports are quite similar to those for extra-EMU exports and the equations for aggregate EMU imports resemble those for extra-EMU imports.
Neural Network Simulation and the Prediction of Corporate Outcomes: Some Empirical Findings

Neural Networks (NN's) involve an innovative method of simulating and analysing complex and constantly changing systems of relationships. Originally developed to mimic the neural architecture and functioning of the human brain, NN techniques have recently been applied to many different business fields and have demonstrated a capability to solve complex problems. This paper investigates the use of NN techniques as a tool for the modelling and prediction of corporate bankruptcy and other corporate outcomes. The within and out-of-sample accuracy of trained NNs are compared with those of standard logit and multilogit techniques. The results of the study suggest that, from a pure predictive point of view, NN simulation produces a higher predictive accuracy and is more robust than conventional logit and multilogit models.
A Small Open Economy Model for Nigeria: A BVAR - DSGE Approach

Motivated by the way a small open economy should react to business cycles, we have estimated a small open economy (SOE) model for Nigeria. This is with a view to understanding how the Nigerian economy should be managed in the face of a cycle such as the current global meltdown. Our SOE model is used to generate dummy observation priors for the VAR in line with the BVAR-DSGE technique. We consider four monetary policy rules and estimate each of the resulting models using DYNARE 4.0. 2. We find that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) places little weight on the exchange rate behaviour in reacting to the cycles, resulting in overshooting and persistence in the exchange rate but strongly reacts to the behaviour of inflation and, to a lesser degree, of output, output gap or its growth following the shocks. We conclude that it will be important for the CBN to pursue a guided exchange rate policy by actively responding to the exchange rate movement to avoid overshooting and persistence, that the terms of trade must be endogenize and that there is scope for the CBN to learn from past policy outcome by building a much stronger feedback.
Community and social capital in Slovenia—the impact of transition

The transition from socialism to capitalism has many impacts on the everyday life of the people of Slovenia. Amongst others it has an impact on their community ties and their choices regarding participation in public life. Community can enable or diminish the basic processes, such as solidarity, equal choices and opportunities, and respect for the differences that are needed for an inclusive society. This article researches such processes through the concept of social capital and provides some responses necessary for the political and professional planning of social policy and the practice of social services.
A Bayesian Comparison of Models for Changing Mortalities toward Evaluating Longevity Risk in Japan

We present a Bayesian approach to compare models for forecasting mortality rates under the framework of the Lee-Carter methodology. We consider the original normal log-bilinear formulation of the methodology as well as the recently proposed Poisson log-bilinear formulation. For each formulation, we compare three models: the deterministic trend model, the stochastic trend model and the stationary (no trend) model, each of which represents a different future scenario for changing mortalities. Markov-chain Monte Carlo methods are used to sample the predictive distributions from each model and to calculate the marginal likelihoods for the model selection. The approach is applied to Japanese male mortality rates from 1970 to 2003. The results show that the stochastic trend model is most appropriate for forecasting mortality rates both for the normal and the Poisson formulation. We then use the selected model to evaluate longevity risk in Japan by calculating the posterior predictive distributions of the life annuities for the population at age 65.
Very long range global Population Scenarios to 2300 and the Implications of Sustained low Fertility

Depending on whether the global level of fertility is assumed to converge to the current European TFR (~1.5) or that of Southeast Asia or Central America (~2.5), global population will either decline to 2.3-2.9 billion by 2200 or increase to 33-37 billion, if mortality continues to decline. Furthermore, sizeable human populations exist when the 'voluntary chosen' ideal family size is heavily concentrated around one child per woman with TFRs as low as 0.6-0.8. However, the UN population projections to 2300 use a much narrower band of possible future TFRs. If the two-child norm is not necessarily the end-point transition, what would be the consequences of the currently reported low fertility rates being sustained and becoming widespread? We present new projections for 13 IPCC world regions with scenarios calculated on the basis of regular cohort-component projections by age and sex in single-year time steps up to 2300, each based upon a much broader set of fertility assumptions than currently employed. We create three mortality scenarios based upon maximum life expectancies of 90, 100, 110, as well as a series of "Special" scenarios. Even under conditions of further substantial increases in life expectancy, world population size would decline significantly if the world in the longer run followed the examples of Europe and East Asia. In contrast to Malthusian disaster scenarios, our exercise illustrates the distinct possibility of significant population shrinking associated with increasing life expectancy and human well-being.
Trust in Banks During Normal and Crisis Times - Evidence from Survey Data

We study the evolution of people's trust in banks during the global financial crisis, and the factors that determine its level. Austrian survey data show that trust in banks declined sizeably during the financial crisis, but the lowest observed trust level (60%) is still higher than that of many other institutions. We establish that a trust decline is related to agents’ subjective view of the economic situation and the direct experience of bank failures. Deposit insurance stabilizes banking trust. Both the lack of bank collapses and the extension of deposit insurance coverage had a cushioning effect on trust in banks.
Shared Nonlinear Control in Internet-Based Remote Stabilization

This paper proposes shared control in Internet-based remote stabilization for nonlinear systems. This paper consists of two parts. The first part addresses the basis of Internet-based remote stabilization for a single nonlinear system with time-varying delay. We derive a delay dependent sufficient condition for ensuring the stability of Takagi-Sugeno (T-S) fuzzy models with time-varying delays that are globally (or semi-globally at least) equivalent to nonlinear systems with network time-delays. A feature of the derived condition is to be able to obtain the maximum time-delay for ensuring the stability of Internet-based remote control system for given feedback gains. The second part presents shared control of plural nonlinear systems via a single controller. To design a (common) shared controller to stabilize plural nonlinear systems simultaneously, we derive also a shared control version of the stability condition for T-S fuzzy models with time-varying delays. Design examples demonstrate the utility of this proposed design approach
Achieving ideal accuracies in analog neuromorphic computing using periodic carry

Analog resistive memories promise to reduce the energy of neural networks by orders of magnitude. However, the write variability and write nonlinearity of current devices prevent neural networks from training to high accuracy. We present a novel periodic carry method that uses a positional number system to overcome this while maintaining the benefit of parallel analog matrix operations. We demonstrate how noisy, nonlinear TaOx devices that could only train to 80% accuracy on MNIST, can now reach 97% accuracy, only 1% away from an ideal numeric accuracy of 98%. On a file type dataset, the TaOx devices achieve ideal numeric accuracy. In addition, low noise, linear Li1−xCoO2 devices train to ideal numeric accuracies using periodic carry on both datasets.
Energy-performance tradeoffs for the shared memory in multi-processor systems-on-chip

Accesses to the shared memory in multi-processor systems-on-chip represent a significant performance bottleneck and source of energy consumption, because of the synchronization of the accesses as well as of their relative "distance" from the processors. While multi-port memories are usually employed to solve performance issues, no standard solution exists for energy issues. In this work, we propose an architecture for the shared memory that is based on application-specific partitioning, which offers various energy-performance tradeoffs. The shared address space of the application is split into two, non-overlapping subsets which are mapped onto two distinct memory blocks. By properly tuning the point at which the address space is split, various solutions can be achieved with different levels of energy/performance tradeoffs. Experiments on a set of parallel benchmarks show that it is possible to achieve solutions with energy-delay product savings ranging from 40 to 62% (50% on average) with respect to a conventional, non-partitioned architecture.
Breath carbon monoxide as an indication of smoking habit.

STUDY OBJECTIVE To assess whether the breath carbon monoxide (CO) concentration can be used to determine a patient's smoking habits in a respiratory outpatient clinic. DESIGN To provide a normal range for smokers and nonsmokers, 41 outpatients and 24 healthy subjects were questioned on their smoking habits and asked to provide two breaths into a CO monitor (EC50 Smokerlyser; Bedfont Instruments; Kent, UK). In a subsequent single-blind study, 51 different outpatients were not told of the purpose of the study and were assessed by extensive questionnaire, spirometry, and Smokerlyser estimation. SETTING The Chest Clinic and Pulmonary Medicine Department at the Northern General Hospital, Sheffield, UK. PARTICIPANTS Phase 1 involved 41 outpatients attending the Chest Clinic and 24 nonoutpatient colleagues. In phase 2, an additional 51 different outpatients were studied. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS The mean (SD) breath CO levels were 17.4 (11.6) parts per million (ppm) for smokers and 1.8 (1.3) ppm for nonsmokers (p < 0.001). A level of 6 ppm was taken as the cutoff, as this gave a selectivity of 96% and a sensitivity of 94% for outpatients. Of the 51 study patients, 5 admitted to smoking in the administered questionnaire. Eight denied smoking but had a mean breath CO > 6 ppm (7.5 to 42 ppm). Of these, three admitted to smoking after being explained the implication of the reading. CONCLUSIONS Breath CO concentration provides an easy, noninvasive, and immediate way of assessing a patient's smoking status. A reading > 6 ppm strongly suggests that an outpatient is a smoker.
Hedging Corporate Bonds with Stock Index Futures

When investing in corporate bonds, investors face credit as well as interest rate risk. Conventional wisdom suggests that we should hedge interest rate risk with Treasury futures contracts and to hedge credit risk with S&P futures. In this study we use a variety of instruments to hedge portfolios of U.S. corporate bonds, formed on the basis of both maturity and credit rating. Using these portfolios we are unable to demonstrate that a Treasury plus S&P futures hedge performs any better than simply hedging with Treasury futures alone. Furthermore, when we explore the effectiveness of three alternative dual asset hedging strategies, we find that only for low credit quality, long-term corporate bond portfolios can any of these alternative hedging strategies be more effective than simply hedging interest rate risk alone. The moral of the story is clear. Credit risk is difficult to hedge, and unless the bond portfolio consists of long-term, low credit quality bonds, we may be better off not trying to hedge credit risk at all.
Continuing periosteal apposition. II: The significance of peak bone mass, strain equilibrium, and age-related activity differentials for mechanical compensation in human tubular bones.

It is generally presumed that compensation for the reduction of bone strength by progressive endosteal bone loss in adults is provided by continuing periosteal apposition (CPA) of new lamellar bone. However, the appropriate magnitude of compensatory bone growth, and the parameters that operate to determine that magnitude, are unknown. This paper examines the mechanical compensation hypothesis in a series of right-circular tubular bone analogues. Under this hypothesis, the stated objective of CPA is maintenance of the cross-sectional geometric properties of the element. These include the second and polar moments of area, as well as the cortical area of the section (I, J, and CA, respectively). This study assumes that, as resorption and apposition proceed, geometric change is isometric (shape preserving). The analysis suggests that for a given rate of endosteal bone loss (the stimulus), the magnitude of periosteal growth (the response) required to maintain geometric strength is determined by the maximum ratio (CT0) of the radial distances from the section centroid to the endosteal and periosteal surfaces (i.e., cortical thickness prior to the onset of progressive endosteal bone loss, or peak bone mass). The analysis also indicates that, for any given individual, the amount of compensatory periosteal gain required may be very small. This is particularly true for individuals having a large CT0 and for whom the magnitude of dynamic loading imparted to the skeleton declines with advancing age. This finding is illustrated in a model that relates concepts of bone surface remodeling equilibria and age-related activity differentials.
W-band imaging of explosive substances

This paper presents three-dimensional W-band images of some common explosives and substances that can be used to produce explosives. As an introduction, some information about the imaged materials (DUTs) is given. After a detailed description of the measurement setup, multiple views of the three dimensional image data are presented. Data features that could be used for detection of the explosives are proposed. At last, estimates of the thickness of the DUTs and the permittivity of the imaged substances are extracted from the image data.
Validation of a Mexican Spanish Version of the Children’s Dermatology Life Quality Index

Abstract: The Children’s Dermatology Quality Index was developed as a tool to evaluate the quality‐of‐life in children with skin diseases. While a useful, self‐administered scale, it has not been validated in Spanish for Mexican children. The aim of this study was to validate a Mexican version. Direct English‐Spanish translation of the Children’s Dermatology Quality Index was performed by two translators, and a single version was produced by a consensus of experts. Clarity was tested in a cohort of 60 healthy children. A reverse English‐Spanish translation was performed. In a second stage, the quality‐of‐life was evaluated in a cohort of 64 pediatric patients with atopic dermatitis using the SCOring Atopic Dermatitis Index and COOP‐Dartmouth questionnaires, and its severity evaluated with SCOring Atopic Dermatitis Index. Sixty‐four patients (32 males), aged 11.8 ± 2.9 years, with atopic dermatitis of 1 to 3 years of evolution were evaluated. The Mexican Spanish version of the Children’s Dermatology Quality Index showed a high internal consistency (Cronbach’s Alpha = 0.83; (CI95% = 0.76–0.88) and a high test–retest reliability (γs = 0.97, p < 0.001). A high correlation was observed between Children’s Dermatology Quality Index and COOP‐Dartmouth (γs = 0.97, p < 0.001) and moderate correlation with SCOring Atopic Dermatitis Index (γs = 0.53, p < 0.001). The Children’s Dermatology Quality Index questionnaire in its Mexican Spanish version is valid and reliable for evaluating quality‐of‐life in Mexican pediatric patients with atopic dermatitis.
HIV-associated neuromuscular weakness syndrome

Objective: To investigate progressive, severe neuromuscular weakness associated with lactic acidosis in some HIV-infected patients after exposure to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI). Methods: HIV-associated neuromuscular weakness syndrome (HANWS) was retrospectively identified and classified based on the level of diagnostic certainty: possible (progressive weakness owing to neuromuscular disease), probable (progressive neuromuscular weakness with documented exclusion of confounding causes), or definite (progressive weakness and electrophysiological or pathological evidence of neuromuscular pathology). Results: Of 69 patients identified with HANWS, 27 had definite HANWS, 19 probable, and 23 possible. In 44 patients with documented follow-up, 16 required intubation and nine died. There was a marginal association between death and hyperlactatemia (P = 0.061). At onset of neurological symptoms, 68 were receiving antiretroviral therapy, including stavudine for 61 (89.7%). Serum lactate level was elevated (> 2.2 mmol/l) in 30/37 (81%), with a trend towards an association between hyperlactatemia and stavudine usage (P = 0.087). In 25, neurological symptoms occurred after antiretroviral therapy discontinuation (median, 14 days). Electrophysiological studies (n = 24) indicated sensorimotor neuropathy in 20 patients and myopathy in three. Nerve biopsy (n = 9) revealed axonal degeneration and inflammation in three, mixed axonal and demyelinating lesions in three, and primary axonal neuropathy in three. Of 15 muscle biopsies, three revealed inflammation and four mitochondrial abnormalities. Conclusions: A severe neuromuscular weakness syndrome may occur in HIV-infected individuals. The association with hyperlactatemia and NRTI exposure supports mitochondrial toxicity as a pathogenesis. In some, the onset of neurological symptoms lagged significantly after discontinuation of antiretroviral therapy, suggesting that different etiological mechanisms may underlie these cases.
In-Beam PET Imaging in Carbon Therapy for Dose Verification

Carbon particle therapy has shown great advantages in radiation therapy owing to its high relative biological effectiveness. In-beam positron emission tomography (PET) is an effective method for monitoring and measuring the position and dose of a carbon ion beam. In this paper, we use Geant4 application for emission tomography software to simulate carbon therapy and in-beam PET imaging processes. One hundred pulses of 12C with 100, 200, and 300 AMeV were impacted on a PMMA target. The distributions of positron-emitting nuclides and the radiation dose were calculated. The coincidence data of annihilation photons from positrons were measured via a small animal PET protocol, which uses the same detector size and ring radius as the MicroPET Focus 220. Finally, we reconstructed the 3-D PET image for the distribution of generated positron-emitting nuclides by using a filtered back projection algorithm, and the PET image was used to determine the position of maximum dose deposition. Thus, we demonstrate a comprehensive method to accurately identify the position of maximum dose deposition by using the reconstructed in-beam PET image.
BEYOND FEDERALISM: THE KYOTO PROTOCOL AND MULTI-LEVEL GOVERNANCE IN CANADA

This thesis uses multi-level governance and win-sets to examine the effect of formal, informal and negotiation constraints placed on federal, provincial and municipal orders of government on implementing policy related to the Kyoto Protocol. Firstly, the theoretical and historical underpinnings of environmental policy approaches in this area are examined. Then, this work studies the formal and informal institutional constraints placed on governmental levels in Canadian politics. Finally, the negotiation relationships between all orders of government are mapped using a stag hunt game, which clearly illustrates the roles and powers of all orders of government. This thesis finds that the federal government will need provincial help in order to implement policies relating to the Kyoto Protocol, even if they could unilaterally ratify the agreement. In addition, the local order of government can play an important role in the policy process by acting as a bridge between conflicting provincial and federal interests.
Decision support system effectiveness: a review and an empirical test

Despite the increasing popularity of decision support systems DSS, effectiveness of such systems remains unproven. Past research claiming usefulness of the DSS has relied largely on anecdotal or case data. The relatively few laboratory experiments report mixed results regarding the effects of a decision aid. This study reviews the results of prior investigations and examines the effectiveness of DSS-aided decision makers relative to decision makers without a DSS over an eight-week period. An executive decision making game was used in two sections of a business strategy course. Three-person teams in one section used a DSS while the teams in the other section played the game without such an aid. Various measures of decision quality were recorded. Overall, the groups with access to the DSS made significantly more effective decisions in the business simulation game than their non-DSS counterparts. The DSS groups took more time to make their decisions than the non-DSS groups at the beginning of the experiment. However, the decision times converged after the third week. The DSS teams reported investigating more alternatives and exhibited a higher confidence level in their decisions than the non-DSS groups, but these differences were not statistically significant.
How Prevalent is Performance-Related Pay in the United States? Current Incidence and Recent Trends

We address basic questions about performance-related pay in the US. How widespread is it? What characteristics of employers and jobs are associated with it? What are recent trends in its incidence? What factors are responsible for these trends? Nearly two-fifths of hours worked in the US economy in 2013 were in jobs with performance-related pay, but this share has been declining. We consider several possible causes for this trend and find that they do not have much explanatory power. We do establish, however, that any potential explanation must also account for a long-term shift in the relative incidence of performance-related pay away from low-wage and toward high-wage jobs.