Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Quantifying Forecast Uncertainty in the Energy Domain

QUANTIFYING FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IN THE ENERGY DOMAIN Mohammad Saber, B.S., M.S. Marquette University, 2017 This dissertation focuses on quantifying forecast uncertainties in the energy domain, especially for the electricity and natural gas industry. Accurate forecasts help the energy industry minimize their production costs. However, inaccurate weather forecasts, unusual human behavior, sudden changes in economic conditions, unpredictable availability of renewable sources (wind and solar), etc., represent uncertainties in the energy demand-supply chain. In the current smart grid era, total electricity demand from non-renewable sources influences by the uncertainty of the renewable sources. Thus, quantifying forecast uncertainty has become important to improve the quality of forecasts and decision making. In the natural gas industry, the task of the gas controllers is to guide the hourly natural gas flow in such a way that it remains within a certain daily maximum and minimum flow limits to avoid penalties. Due to inherent uncertainties in the natural gas forecasts, setting such maximum and minimum flow limits a day or more in advance is difficult. Probabilistic forecasts (cumulative distribution functions), which quantify forecast uncertainty, are a useful tool to guide gas controllers to make such tough decisions. Three methods (parametric, semi-parametric, and non-parametric) are presented in this dissertation to generate 168-hour horizon probabilistic forecasts for two real utilities (electricity and natural gas) in the US. Probabilistic forecasting is used as a tool to solve a real-life problem in the natural gas industry. A benchmark was created based on the existing solution, which assumes forecast error is normal. Two new probabilistic forecasting methods are implemented in this work without the normality assumption. There is no single popular evaluation technique available to assess probabilistic forecasts, which is one reason for people’s lack of interest in using probabilistic forecasts. Existing scoring rules are complicated, dataset dependent, and provide less emphasis on reliability (empirical distribution matches with observed distribution) than sharpness (the smallest distance between any two quantiles of a CDF). A graphical way to evaluate probabilistic forecasts along with two new scoring rules are offered in this work. The non-parametric and semi-parametric probabilistic forecasting methods outperformed the benchmark method during unusual days (difficult days to forecast) as well as on other days.
Serum eosinophil cationic protein in relation to bronchial asthma in a young Swedish population

How are the serum concentration of eosinophil cationic protein (S‐ECP) and the blood eosinophil count (B‐Eos) related to symptoms of asthma, allergy, and bronchial hyperresponsiveness (BHR)? We measured S‐ECP, B‐Eos, and total and specific IgE in serum in blood samples from 699 randomly selected persons 20–44 years old. They also underwent a structured interview, spirometry, a methacholine provocation test, and skin prick tests as part of the European Community Respiratory Health Survey. B‐Eos and S‐ECP were found to be closely related to asthma symptom score (P < 0.001), total IgE (P < 0.001), and BHR (P < 0.001). On the basis of the results, the subjects were divided into four groups: healthy controls, patients with allergic rhinitis, patients with nonallergic asthma, and patients with allergic asthma. There were significant differences in both B‐Eos and S‐ECP among the groups (P < 0.001), the highest values being found in the allergic asthma group. B‐Eos and S‐ECP each had an additive value in predicting the occurrence of asthma. Among persons with high concentrations of both variables, asthma was eight times more common than in those with low concentrations. Allergy and BHR were also found to be independently related to B‐Eos and S‐ECP levels. Furthermore, both B‐Eos and S‐ECP showed good correlation to subjective and objective measures of asthma activity. We conclude that both B‐Eos and S‐ECP and their interrelationship may be of value in assessing the activity of asthma. However, their role in disease management was not established in this cross‐sectional study.
CSR and Financial Performance: Trick Or Treat? A Longitudinal Study on Holistic CSR Practices

This paper aims to test the impact that a firm’s adopted CSR level has on its financial performance, in terms of accounting, financial and market-based measures. In particular, we employ a panel OLS analysis to test the effect of firm’s sustainable efforts (measured by the “Sustainable score”, a tailor-made variable) on three performance measures: return on assets (ROA), return on equity (ROE) and Tobin’s Q. This work provides for methodological differences that led to divergent research results over existing literature in the field, examining the relationship of interest within three timeframes that exploit underlying dynamics over both long- and short-term horizons. Furthermore, we contributed to current knowledge focusing on the effect of holistic CSR practices on financial performance and examining the impact of the 2007 financial crisis on the relationship. To that end, we have employed a customized measure to represent effective CSR practices that go beyond CSR-washing cases and studies of CSR through single-dimension variables, while quantitatively exploring the relationship of interest within three separate time periods that span both before and after the financial meltdown of 2007. Results highlight a positive relationship between the operating and financial performance of companies and their sustainability commitment. What is more, findings indicate that CSR individual actions do not produce any significant impact on firms’ performance, unless applied jointly through a holistic sustainability strategy. Finally, the relationship between the sustainability level of a firm and its financial performance presents various significance levels and temporal profiles, with the years to follow the financial downturn of 2007 presenting the strongest results as opposed to the absence of important influence during the pre-crisis period.
Organic Crop Prices, or 2x Conventional Ones?

Cointegration is tested between organic and conventional corn and soybean markets in several locations throughout the U.S. using a unique data set. Organic prices are found to behave like jump processes rather than diffusions, and Monte Carlo methods are developed to compute appropriate critical values for such tests. Findings indicate that no long-run relationship exists between organic and conventional prices, implying that price determination for organic corn and soybean is independent from that for the conventional crops. This suggests that organic corn and soybean prices are driven by demand and supply forces idiosyncratic to the organic market. For each crop, cointegrating spatial relationships are found between prices at the main organic markets. However, such relationships are generally weaker than the ones for the corresponding conventional prices, implying that organic markets are more affected by idiosyncratic shocks than conventional markets.
Expression of the transposable lac operon Tn951 in Rhodopseudomonas sphaeroides

The transposon Tn951 (lac) was introduced into the photosynthetic bacterium Rhodopseudomonas sphaeroides 2.4. 1, which is normally Lac-, via the P-group plasmid RP1. beta-Galactosidase was produced constitutively in both chemotrophically and phototrophically grown cells, and the levels were found to be the same but low. Mutants were isolated, however, that were able to grow on lactose minimal medium and which expressed different levels of beta-galactosidase when grown chemotrophically or phototrophically. The beta-galactosidase levels found in all R. sphaeroides strains were much less than those found in Escherichia coli.
Identification of MDR-TB Beijing/W and other Mycobacterium tuberculosis genotypes in Nairobi, Kenya.

SETTING Suspected tuberculosis (TB) patients in Nairobi, Kenya. OBJECTIVE To identify the presence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) Beijing/W type and other genotypes of Mycobacterium tuberculosis. METHODS Thirty-three isolates resistant to one or more drugs (resistance ratio method), including 15 MDR isolates and 40 susceptible isolates selected at random, were analysed by dot-blot hybridisation for mutations associated with resistance to isoniazid, rifampicin, streptomycin and ethambutol. All strains were genotypically classified using spoligotyping. RESULTS Of the 33 drug-resistant isolates, 21 (64%) were from males and 12 (36%) were from females. Mutations associated with resistance to isoniazid (katG 315) and rifampicin (rpoB526, 531) were confirmed in 83.3% and 100% of the isolates, respectively, and in 87% of the MDR isolates. Mutations were detected in 25% and 71.5% of the isolates resistant to streptomycin (rpsL43) and ethambutol (embB306), respectively. No mutations were detected in drug-susceptible isolates. Spoligotyping grouped the isolates into 25 groups. Ten of these groups corresponded to previously identified strain groups, including seven families in the international database. One of these families (CAS1) comprised six (40%) of the 15 MDR isolates. Another family (Beijing) had six (8.3%) isolates, of which two (33.3%) were MDR (Beijing/W). CONCLUSION This study is the first in Kenya and the second in sub-Saharan Africa to report the presence of MDR Beijing/W type and other possible drug-resistant outbreak strains. Application of the molecular techniques and markers will allow us to monitor the spread of existing drug-resistant strains and the appearance of new ones.
Cartilage-specific deletion of Mig-6 results in osteoarthritis-like disorder with excessive articular chondrocyte proliferation

Significance Mitogen-inducible gene 6 (Mig-6) was found to be an important factor in maintaining joint homeostasis, and its loss in mice results in the development of an osteoarthritis (OA)-like disorder in multiple synovial joints. However, it was unclear in what cells Mig-6 was expressed and what cells were causal for developing the OA-like phenotype. Here we report that Mig-6 is uniquely expressed in the cells surrounding entire surface of the synovial joint, including chondrocytes in the superficial zone of the articular cartilage and in the meniscus, and synovial lining cells. We found that although chondrocytes play a critical role in developing the OA-like disorder in the knees, other cell types are likely required for full development of the Mig-6–deficient joint phenotype. A deficiency of mitogen-inducible gene-6 (Mig-6) in mice leads to the development of an early-onset, osteoarthritis (OA)-like disorder in multiple synovial joints, underlying its importance in maintaining joint homeostasis. Here we determined what joint tissues Mig-6 is expressed in and what role chondrocytes play in the Mig-6–deficient OA-like disorder. A Mig-6/lacZ reporter mouse strain expressing β-galactosidase under the control of the Mig-6 gene promoter was generated to determine Mig-6 expression in joint tissues. By β-galactosidase staining, we demonstrated that Mig-6 was uniquely expressed in the cells across the entire surface of the synovial joint cavity, including chondrocytes in the superficial zone of articular cartilage and in the meniscus, as well as synovial lining cells. By crossing Mig-6–floxed mice to Col2a1-Cre transgenic mice, to generate cartilage-specific deletion of Mig-6, we demonstrated that deficiency of Mig-6 in the chondrocytes results in a joint phenotype that only partially recapitulates the OA-like disorder of the Mig-6–deficient mice: Ubiquitous deletion of Mig-6 led to the OA-like disorder in multiple joints, whereas cartilage-specific deletion affected the knees but rarely other joints. Furthermore, chondrocytes with Mig-6 deficiency showed excessive proliferative activities along with enhanced EGF receptor signaling in the articular cartilage and in the abnormally formed osteophytes. Our findings provide insight into the crucial requirement for Mig-6 in maintaining joint homeostasis and in regulating chondrocyte activities in the synovial joints. Our data also suggest that other cell types are required for fully developing the Mig-6–deficient OA-like disorder.
Orexinergic innervation of POMC-containing neurons in the rat arcuate nucleus

A pre-embedding double immunostaining technique was used to study the synaptic relationships between orexin-like immunoreactive axon terminals and preopiomelanocortin (POMC)-like immunoreactive neurons in the rat arcuate nucleus. Most of the synapses were axo-dendritic, while some axo-somatic synapses were also found. Both the axo-somatic and axo-dendritic synapses were symmetrical. In some cases the presynaptic orexin-like immunoreactive axon terminals contained a few large dense-cored vesicles. The results suggest that the orexinergic axon terminals in the arcuate nucleus may play an important role in the regulation of food intake via synapses through POMC neurons.
Longitudinal study on the changes of maxillary arch dimensions in Japanese children with cleft lip and/or palate: infancy to 4 years of age.

The focus of this study was an analysis of maxillary arch growth changes prior to the time of cheiloplasty up to 4 years of age. Serial dental casts were obtained and measured in 95 children with cleft lip and palate, or both: 7 unilateral cleft lip and alveolus (CLA), 52 unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP), 24 bilateral cleft lip and palate (BCLP), and 12 isolated cleft palate (CP). The children were treated at the Kyushu University Dental Hospital. The results are as follows: (1) Prior to cheiloplasty, the maxillary buccal segments in the subjects with cleft lip and palate showed lateral displacement. The premaxilla in BCLP subjects was protruded. (2) Cheiloplasty influenced maxillary anterior arch width, but not posterior width. The operation caused posterior displacement of the premaxilla in BCLP subjects. (3) Palatoplasty affected the growth of the maxillary arch in the transverse and anteroposterior dimensions. (4) A variety of growth patterns observed in the patients (e.g., increasing or decreasing of the maxillary arch dimensions) suggests that maxillary arch dimensions were affected not only by surgery, but also by other individual factors such as genetic facial pattern and severity of the cleft.
A brief review of the history of delirium as a mental disorder

We review the most important concepts about delirium, from ancient times until the twentieth century. We also focus on the question of how these concepts have dealt with the particular problems posed by prognosis and outcome. Althought different terms have been used, a robust description of delirium has existed since antiquity — at some times as a symptom and at others as a syndrome. It is clear that, throughout the millennia, delirium has been — and still is — a highly lethal syndrome; a poor mental outcome for survivors was often noted. Not until the twentieth century was it thought that delirium was marked by a full recovery among survivors, and this was probably due to the desire for a clear distinction from dementia.
Assessing Market Efficiency And Volatility Of Exchange Rates in South Africa and United Kingdom: Analysis Using Hurst Exponent

ABSTRACT:The possibility of random walk movements in the log-returns of exchange rate series as well as the characterization of returns by periods of tranquility and volatility is of interest in financial time series modelling. These features make the analysis of exchange rates to be important in the design of policy, portfolio and risk management whenever international trade and finance is discussed. This paper investigated the level of exchange rates market efficiency and volatility at three market phases of US Dollar-South African Rands and US Dollars-British Pounds exchange rates for the daily periods from 2 January 1995 to 8 June 2016. This paper applied the modified Hurst exponent' and volatility modelling techniques on the series log-returns, absolute and squared log-returns used as proxies to volatility. The results of the modified Hurst exponent techniques on the log-returns and squared log-returns show that the future path of the exchange rates returns in these markets are not governed by their immediate past in the second and third identified phases. Thus, the two markets have been in the state of weak form of efficiency since 2001 to the current transition, with UK exchange rate market more efficient than South African exchange rate market. Using the efficiency and volatility indices to classify the two exchange rate markets as well as the market phases, we observe similar transition in the level of market efficiency in these markets, this which is as a result of trade partnership between the two countries. In terms of market volatility, we cannot make a clearer judgement between the two economies. This paper has repositioned the stability foreign exchange rates of South Africa, a member of Group of 20 (G20) countries, with that of a member of the G7 countries, that is, the UK. To the government, risk and portfolio managers, the findings emanating from this paper indicated that the South Africa's Rand is also stable like the British Pound, and thus, can be traded on the international currency market without fear of excessive loss/gain.
Malignant Intracranial Fibrous Histiocytomas. Histologic, Ultrastructural and Immunohistochemical Studies of Two Cases

ABSTRACT: Two cases of malignant intracranial fibrous histiocytoma are presented. In Case 1 the tumour arose from the meninges and showed a disseminated spread throughout the neuroaxis. In the second case the tumour appeared to arise from within the brain substance. In this case surgical intervention and radiotherapy appeared to have achieved a cure, since no residual tumour was found at autopsy. The tumours were examined using ultrastructural and immunohistochemical techniques, which appeared advantageous in delineating this rare tumour from other intracranial neoplasms.
Mitochondrial glutathione oxidation correlates with age‐associated oxidative damage to mitochondrial DNA

Mitochondria may be primary targets of free radical damage associated with aging. We have found that mitochondrial glutathione is markedly oxidized with aging in rats and mice. The oxidized to reduced glutathione ratio rises with aging in the liver, kidney, and brain. The magnitude of these changes is much higher than that previously found in whole cells of any species previously studied. In the liver, this ratio (expressing GSSG as a percent of GSH) changed from 0.77 ± 0.19% (n=5) in young rats to 2.47 ± 1.25% (n = 5) in old ones, i.e., 320% of the controls. In the brain and kidney, values for old rats were, respectively, 600 and 540% higher than those of young rats. A marked oxidation of mitochondrial glutathione also occurred in mice. Aging also caused an increase in 8‐oxo‐7,8‐dihydro‐2'‐dexo) guauosine levels in mtDNA in rats and mice. Oral antioxidant administration protected against both glutathione oxidation and mtDNA damage in rats and mice. Finally, we have found a direct relationship between mtDNA damage and mitochondrial glutathione oxidation. This occurs both in rats (r=0,95) and in mice (r=0.98). This relationship, which has been observed for the first time in these studies, underscores the role of glutathione in the protection against free radical damage that occurs upon aging. —Garcia de la Asuncion, J., Millan, A. , Pla, R. , Bruseghini, L. , Esteras, A. , Pallardo, F. V. , Sastre, J., ViÑa, J. Mitochrondrial glutathione oxidation correlates with age‐associated oxidative damage to mitochondrial DNA. FASEB J. 10, 333‐338 (1996)
Long-Term Prospects of the International Wine Trade

Abstract This article discusses key comparative advantages of wine-producing nations and suggest prospective views on their evolution. Our methodology is twofold. First, we study comparative advantages in 16 countries using Porter's diamond. Then, we report results from a survey in which wine economists are asked to assess the future trade performance of these countries. Results are relatively consistent across methods regarding the future “heavy weights” like China, but also New Zealand and Chile, countries show the greatest potential to succeed in the future global wine trade. It is also expected that Georgia, the United Kingdom, and Australia play an important role, although to a lesser extent. Our findings indicate that comparative advantages in wine trade are neither uniform nor static; especially, terroir is no longer sufficient. The diamond approach contradicts experts from two countries in particular, France and Argentina, suggesting that experts put great emphasis on demand and market structures as key trade determinants for the future. (JEL Classifications: F14, Q17)
PUBLIC LABELING REVISITED: THE ROLE OF TECHNOLOGICAL CONSTRAINTS UNDER PROTECTED DESIGNATION OF ORIGIN REGULATION

This paper takes into account technological and output constraints for firms to analyse PDO regulation. We first examine an original dataset of French Brie cheese producers and compare the cost structure of PDO producers with non-PDO ones. The paper also finds that PDO firms face a more costly production technology and do not profit from scale economies. Then, based on a theoretical model, the paper shows a clear tradeoff between the sunk advertising costs (net of certification costs) and the degree of diseconomies of scale. This tradeoff affects both the firms' incentive to certify, and the efficiency of public certification.
Microbial Characterization of Biological Filters Used for Drinking Water Treatment

ABSTRACT The impact of preozonation and filter contact time (depth) on microbial communities was examined in drinking water biofilters treating Ohio River water which had undergone conventional treatment (coagulation, flocculation, sedimentation) or solutions of natural organic matter isolated from groundwater (both ozonated and nonozonated). With respect to filter depth, compared to filters treating nonozonated waters, preozonation of treated water led to greater differences in community phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) profiles, utilization of sole carbon sources (Biolog), and arbitrarily primed PCR fingerprints. PLFA profiles indicated that there was a shift toward anaerobic bacteria in the communities found in the filter treating ozonated water compared to the communities found in the filter treating nonozonated settled water, which had a greater abundance of eukaryotic markers.
Impact of Guanxi on Managerial Satisfaction and Commitment in China

This study assesses the role of guanxi (relationship) in organisational commitment and job satisfaction among mid-level managers in China today. Based on a large survey sample, we quantitatively identify three components of guanxi by adopting the principal component analysis (PCA), and then apply the multivariate regressions to examine the impact of guanxi. Our research unveils how guanxi dimensions, a type of social connection with features of Chinese culture, exert unique and practical impacts on the work environment. Consistent with the literature, organisational guanxi is confirmed to enhance job satisfaction and affective commitment, while personal guanxi is found to undermine job satisfaction and affective commitment. On the other hand, organisational guanxi tends to reduce continuance or normative commitment while personal guanxi improves both. These findings contribute to the literature with evidence highlighting the importance of guanxi in human resources management and also shed new light to the heterogeneity of such influence across geographical locations, demographic variation, and forms of organisation. Overall, this research suggests that the ability to navigate different dimensions of guanxi is a necessary skill for the managers in Chinese business.