The Effect of Exchange Rate Change on the Price of the Most Important Vegetable Crops in Egypt

This research aims to study the impact of changing the exchange rate on the retail prices of the most important vegetable crops in Egypt ( onions , garlic , tomatoes , peas , green zucchini , green beans , potatoes , cucumbers ) , by calculating the impact of the change in the exchange rate on the evolution of retail prices of the most important vegetable crops under study ( the effect of scrolling ) , and develop a model (VAR) standard is structured to measure the impact of the change in the exchange rate on the retail prices of the most important vegetable crops in question . the correlation between the exchange rate of the Egyptian pound against the U.S. dollar and retail prices has been calculated of the most important vegetable crops in Egypt during the period from (January 2010 until December 2014) through the study of the effect of scrolling of the exchange rate on the prices of those crops , and the results showed the existence of a correlation between the exchange rate and the prices of those crops at the level of significance 0.01, which means that the change in the exchange rate of the dollar against the pound offset change extrusive in the prices of the most important vegetable crops amounted to about (4.4 , 11.6 , 3.6 , 2.7 , 0.4, 4.3, 1.4 , 1.13 ) for onions , garlic , tomatoes , green peas , zucchini , green beans , potatoes , cucumbers , respectively. The study has been using selfregression model (VAR) to analyze of the relationship between the exchange rate and prices of the most important vegetable crops in Egypt, where the results found the clarity and strength of the relationship between the exchange rate and prices of the most important vegetable crops in Egypt. Have used the function to respond to shocks to identify the extent of the impact of prices of major food commodities in Egypt during the period (January 2010 until December 2014) shocks , which can be exposed to the exchange rate , it was found that any shock in the exchange rate were the effects incremental retail prices for all crops studied , and this is what explains the impact of the global financial crisis on the continuing rise in world food prices and the impact on food prices in the Egyptian market , particularly retail prices for vegetable crops in the Egyptian market . Authors Name/Reyad Ismaeil Moustafa (Author) line1: Agricultural College / Suez Canal University line2: Egypt Authors Name/ Mamdouh Elbadry Mohamed (Author) line1: Institute of Agricultural Economic Research / Agricultural Research Center line2: Egypt In the light of study results, the research recommends the following: (1) Expansion in the production of crops in Egypt , so that it can rise at rates self-sufficiency in order to avoid the adverse effects of exchange rate changes on domestic prices rise . ( 2) Find foreign markets for vegetable crops (onions , garlic , tomatoes , peas , green zucchini , green beans , potatoes , cucumbers) , specially that Egypt enjoys some comparative advantages in the production of these crops , and to benefit from the increase in the price of the dollar and then increase the outcome of the state of foreign exchange . (3) The need to follow monetary policies aimed at reducing the high exchange rate, especially with the prices of vegetable crops affected by the subject of the study to increase the exchange rate. Keywords— Pass Through Effect ,Vector Auto Regression, Granger Causality, Akaike Information Criterion, Schwarz Bayesian Criterion, Augmented Dickey,Fuller, Lag Structure, Lag Exclusion, Cross Correlation, Impulse Response .