Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Forecasting recessions: can we do better on MARS?

A number of recent articles have examined the ability of financial variables to predict recessions. In this article, Peter Sephton extends the literature by considering a non-linear, nonparametric approach to predicting the probability of recession using multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS). The results suggest that this data-intensive approach to modeling is not a panacea for recession forecasting. Although it does well explaining the data within the sample, its out-of-sample forecasts do not improve upon the benchmark probit specification.
Dax index futures: Mispricing and arbitrage in German markets

The paper reports the results of an empirical study of the price relation between the German Performance Stock Index, DAX, and DAX futures. An ex-ante arbitrage strategy based on arbitrage signals is analyzed. The data set contains intraday bidand ask futures quotes and index values on a minute by minute basis. It is found that the number and persistence of arbitrage opportunities differs considerably for futures nearest to deliver as compared to futures which are not nearest to deliver. The findings suggest that arbitrageurs trade mainly in futures nearest to deliver. The risk associated with arbitrage trading is found to be very small so that arbitrage profits are nearly risk free.
The epidemiology of head lice and scabies in the UK

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the prevalence of both scabies and head lice is increasing and also that both conditions are becoming refractory to pesticide treatment. Using information obtained from the Office of National Statistics, Royal College of General Practitioners Weekly Returns Service, Department of Health, local surveys of school children from Bristol and drug sales of insecticides, we have confirmed that there has been a rise in the prevalence of both conditions. We have shown that scabies is significantly more prevalent in urbanized areas (P<0·00001), north of the country (P<0·000001), in children and women (P<0·000001) and commoner in the winter compared to the summer. Scabies was also shown to have a cyclical rise in incidence roughly every 20 years. Head lice were shown to be significantly more prevalent in children and mothers (P<0·000001) though both conditions were seen in all age groups. Head lice were also less common during the summer. Host behaviour patterns, asymptomatic carriage, drug resistance and tourism from countries or districts with a higher incidence may be important factors in the currently high prevalence of both scabies and head lice.
Models and Analysis of Atherosclerosis, Restenosis, and Aneurysm Formation in the Mouse

Atherosclerosis is considered a chronic inflammatory condition of the vessel wall and involves a high chronic concentration of low‐density lipoprotein (LDL) in blood. In humans, restenosis develops after intravascular interventions such as angioplasty and stent placement to treat atherosclerosis, and this process is characterized by excessive smooth muscle cell proliferation that re‐occludes the vessel lumen. Aortic aneurysm formation is caused by severe degradation and thus dilatation of the vessel wall, in part due to atherosclerosis. Each of these vascular pathologies has its specific characteristics at onset and during development of the disease, and to study the involvement of specific genes in detail, various (transgenic) mice have been generated. Here, we aim to provide detailed insight in considerations to choose and set up the appropriate mouse model for specific vascular research questions. Additionally, we provide technical details to execute experiments with these animal models. Curr. Protoc. Mouse Biol. 2:317‐345 © 2012 by John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Negotiating crisis in the social media environment: Evolution of crises online, gaining credibility offline

Purpose – The aim of this paper is to examine how crises can be triggered online, how different social media tools escalate crises, and how issues gain credibility when they transit to mainstream media. Design/methodology/approach – This exploratory study uses the multiple case study method to analyze five crises, generated online, throughout their life-cycles, in order to build analytic generalizations (Yin). Findings – Crises are often triggered online when stakeholders are empowered by social media platforms to air their grievances. YouTube and Twitter have been used to raise issues through its large user base and the lack of gatekeeping. Facebook and blogs escalate crises beyond the immediate stakeholder groups. These crises are covered by mainstream media because of their newsworthiness. As a result, the crises gain credibility offline. Mainstream media coverage ceases when traditional news elements are no longer present. Research limitations/implications – If crises are increasingly generated online.
The Reasoning Voter: Communication and Persuasion in Presidential Campaigns Samuel L. Popkin Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1991, pp. x, 291

possible participatory outcomes. In these pages participationists will discover that not all political activity is of the kind they are inclined to promote; nor does it come from sources they would prefer. Participation is a right that benefits those that use it—whoever they may be and for good or ill. Furthermore, probably to the dismay of communitarians, it is also the case that higher levels of participation are more frequently the byproduct of a pluralistic, even conflictive, society as of a communitarian one. On the other hand, one of the more interesting findings is the statistical support the authors provide for the view of classical theorists of democracy that political involvement has an educative effect upon active citizens. Jean Jacques Rousseau and J. S. Mill (and in recent times Carole Pateman and Benjamin Barber) took it for granted that those who participate in politics would experience an increasing sense of efficacy and knowledge of politics, resulting in a more politically aware citizenry. In an age when mass apathy has afflicted many liberal democracies it is refreshing to find that there are rewards to be gained from political involvement. Generally, the authors tend to side with participatory theorists of democracy in their belief that mass political action is important for the health of liberal democracy, rather than with the so-called democratic "realists. " Even so, this study should not be cited as signalling the demise of democratic elitism as a plausible perspective on the functioning of liberal democracy. There are far too many indications that elites are the essential driving force of contemporary "democratic" activity (in an electorate of 43.5 million the size of the national and local elected and administrative political elite in Britain is estimated at 50,000, far fewer than can be seated at a soccer match at Wembley Stadium). Moreover, despite the rewards of political involvement, activists remain very much in the minority in British politics. To ignore such elements of the reality of participatory politics would be to indulge in democratic dreams; the authors of this book cannot be accused of such whimsy.
Some Results in the Theory of Arbitrage Pricing

This paper derives a stronger version of Huberman's recent “preference free” pricing theorem. This pricing result relates the expected return on an asset to its factor responses and the covariance structure of the residuals from a linear factor model. It must characterize any infinite asset economy in which no arbitrage opportunities are present whether or not the factor model has uncorrelated residuals. This result provides the intuition for the role of residual risk in the pricing model and eliminates some classes of arbitrage opportunities still present under Huberman's bound. Some applications to empirical tests and performance measurement are also discussed.
The Earned Income Tax Credit

In this article, I review the most prominent provision of the federal income tax code that targets low-income tax filers, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC), as well as the structurally similar Child Tax Credit and Additional Child Tax Credit. I discuss the programs’ goals: distributional, promoting work, and limiting administrative and compliance costs. The article reviews the history of the programs, the predicted economic effects, and what is known about program impacts and distributional consequences. I conclude that the EITC effectively targets low-income households and is efficient in reducing poverty while encouraging work and that increases in after-tax household incomes lead to improved outcomes over the life course for children of those households. I propose reforms to the program, including policies that expand the generosity of the credit and increase take-up, as well as structural reforms that include spreading benefits throughout the year and reducing reliance on paid tax preparers.
Social Partnership Agreements in Britain: Labor Cooperation and Compliance

This article reviews evidence on the outcomes of British social partnership agreements using matched comparisons. It concludes that in industries marked by employment decline, partnership firms often have shed jobs at a faster rate than nonpartnership firms. However, in expanding sectors, partnership firms have created jobs at a faster rate than nonpartnership rivals. There is no discernible impact of partnership on either wage settlements or union density. It is argued that we need evidence on information sharing, trust, and power and suggested that partnership agreements are unlikely to contribute significantly to union revitalization.
Simplifying Complex Problems

The process of making complex and controversial decisions, that is, dealing with moral or ethical dilemmas, have intrigued people and inspired writers from time immemorial. Dilemmas give both color and depth to characters in good literary works. But beyond literary fiction, dilemmas occupy society in every day issues such as in introducing legislation or solving current political problems. One example of a current political dilemma is how to deal with Iran’s quest for nuclear weapons. If it were possible to assess and quantify each of the alternative solutions for a given problem, the process of decision making would be much easier. If a problem involves only two optional solutions, game theory techniques can be used. However, real life problems are usually multi-unit, multi-optional problems, as in Iran' s nuclear quest.
Characteristics of a Logistics-Based Business Model

In companies where excellence in logistics is decisive for the outperformance of competitors and logistics has an outspoken role for the strategy of the firm, there is present what we refer to here as a “logistics-based business model. ” Based on a multiple case study of three Nordic retail companies, the purpose of this article is to explore the characteristics of such a logistics-based business model. As such, this research helps to provide structure to logistics-based business models and identifies a way forward for companies for whom logistics and distribution are a major concern for the overall strategy of the firm.
Oxygen free radical production mediated by cocaine and its ethanol‐derived metabolite, cocaethylene, in rat hepatocytes

Cocaine ethyl ester (“cocaethylene”) is a cocaine metabolite formed by hepatic carboxylesterases in the presence of ethanol. In the human liver, this pharmacologically active cocaine analog may reach concentrations similar to those of cocaine. To further investigate the intrinsic hepatotoxic potential of cocaethylene and to compare its effects with the known hepatocyte‐damaging effects of cocaine, primary short‐term cultures of hepatocytes derived from phenobarbital‐pretreated rats were exposed to cocaine or cocaethylene (10 to 1000 μmol/L). Both drugs caused time‐ and concentration‐dependent release of lactate dehydrogenase into the extracellular medium in a congruent pattern. Spontaneous hydrolysis of cocaethylene was negligible at pH 7.4, and the rate of 2‐diethylaminoethyl‐2,2‐diphenylvalerate (SKF‐525A) and phenylmethylsulfonylfluoride‐sensitive enzymatic degradation in hepatocyte cultures was similar to that of cocaine (half‐time, ≈︁ 3 hr). Furthermore, both cocaine and cocaethylene induced massive NADPH‐dependent reactive oxygen species production in hepatic microsomal suspensions and in homogenates of cultured hepatocytes, as directly demonstrated by superoxide dismutase– and catalase‐sensitive luminol chemiluminescence. The integrated photon emission and the maximal slopes of the luminol chemiluminescence displayed similar concentration‐response curves for cocaine and cocaethylene. These data suggest that reactive oxygen species, generated during the interaction of cocaine and cocaethylene with cytochrome P‐450, may be the common mediators of hepatotoxicity induced by these compounds. Moreover, they indicate that the potential for cocaethylene to induce acute lethal cell injury in hepatocytes through oxidative mechanisms is similar to that of its parent compound, cocaine. (HEPATOLOGY 1993;18:1154‐1161).
Identification of human rotavirus serotype by hybridization to polymerase chain reaction-generated probes derived from a hyperdivergent region of the gene encoding outer capsid protein VP7

We have synthesized 32P-labeled hybridization probes from a hyperdivergent region (nucleotides 51 to 392) of the rotavirus gene encoding the VP7 glycoprotein by using the polymerase chain reaction method. Both RNA (after an initial reverse transcription step) and cloned cDNA from human rotavirus serotypes 1 through 4 could be used as templates to amplify this region. High-stringency hybridization of each of the four probes to rotavirus RNAs dotted on nylon membranes allowed the specific detection of corresponding sequences and thus permitted identification of the serotype of the strains dotted. The procedure was useful when applied to rotaviruses isolated from field studies.
Overview: Income Inequality and Poverty in China, 2002-2007

It has been more than three decades since China started to transform its economy institutionally and structurally. The economic transformation has stimulated rapid economic growth in both GDP and personal incomes. From 1978 to 2007 annual growth of GDP averaged close to 10 percent and of household per capita income more than 7 percent. The rate of economic growth was even more impressive in later years, including the period under study in this chapter. From 2002 to 2007 annual growth in GDP was 11.6 percent, and in rural and urban household income per capita 6.8 and 9.6 percent, respectively. 1
Why growth is not enough: Household poverty dynamics in Northeast Gujarat, India

Despite high growth rates in Gujarat, exceeding 9 per cent per year over the decade of the 1990s, poverty in 36 villages located in the northeastern part of this state has changed hardly at all. In these villages, 9.5 per cent of households escaped from poverty over the past 25 years, but 6.3 per cent of households became poor at the same time. Escape and descent are not symmetric: different reasons account for escaping poverty than those for declining into poverty. Growth alone is hardly sufficient to achieve poverty reduction on any significant scale. Public policies will be needed to address directly the separate causes for descent into poverty.
General Productivity Growth in a Theory of Quits and Layoffs

An efficient matching model of quits and layoffs is developed to account for several empirical regularities. Differences between quits and layoffs over the life and business cycles and across demographic groups are generated by differential rates of general productivity growth. The standard approach to quits and layoffs, based on wage rigidity, is shown to be incapable of accounting for many of the empirical regularities. Although a formal test rejects a structural prediction of the efficient turnover model, the specification does well in predicting both the level of and time-series variation in the fraction of separations labeled quits.
Recent Advances in Sustainable Buildings: Review of the Energy and Cost Performance of the State-of-the-Art Best Practices from Around the World

This article reviews the design approaches and technologies that have been used to reduce the energy requirements of new buildings by a factor of 2 to 4 compared to the energy use of otherwise comparable recent new buildings or that have been used to achieve comparable savings in retrofits of existing buildings. This is followed by a critical discussion of documented studies of the energy performance of new and retrofitted buildings from around the world, along with cost information where-ever available. The additional costs of meeting the Passive Standard for heating loads in new buildings, which represents a factor of 5 to 10 reduction of heating load compared to current standard practice, have ranged from 0% to 16% of the construction costs of reference buildings. High-performance commercial buildings, with overall energy intensities of 25–50% that of recent conventional buildings, have been built at less cost, or only at a few percent more cost, than conventional buildings.
Auctions with Artificial Adaptive Agents

Abstract Experiments on auctions find that subjects make systematic bidding errors that cannot be explained within the context of Nash equilibrium bidding models. Experimenters and others have conjectured that learning by subjects could lead to errors consistent with those observed. Here, we create and analyze a model of adaptive learning and demonstrate that such a model can capture the bidding patterns evident among human subjects in experimental auctions. Moreover, our model provides a variety of insights into the nature of learning across different auction institutions. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C7, C9.
MODELO HOLÍSTICO DA GESTÃO DA INOVAÇÃO COM ÊNFASE NA COOPERAÇÃO, FLEXIBILIDADE E ADAPTAÇÃO

Este artigo desenvolve um modelo holistico para a analise dos principais desafios da gestao da inovacao. Pode-se analisar a inovacao como uma questao que vai alem da simples introducao de novas ideias no mercado. Ha uma interacao complexa entre pessoas, ideias e acoes. Atualmente existe uma preocupacao maior com referencia a compreensao e a sistematizacao de tipologias e metricas para avaliar o processo de inovacao. No entanto, tem-se deixado de lado o aspecto humano da questao. Como administrar a inovacao num ambiente cada vez mais exigente? Sugere-se um modelo com os sete valores basicos da gestao da inovacao, composto por estrategia, aprendizado, conhecimento, confianca, criatividade, cultura e poder. Este trabalho se destina para a discussao academica com vista ao aprimoramento e a evolucao do pensamento organizacional na area da gestao da inovacao. Os objetivos sao: descrever o modelo da gestao da inovacao do ponto de vista social; investigar o comportamento dos sete valores numa empresa aberta (flexibilidade) e numa empresa fechada (centralizada). A metodologia utilizada e a construcao de teoria a partir de estudo de caso de Eisenhardt (1989). A contribuicao do artigo esta na formalizacao de um modelo para a analise da gestao da inovacao. Os resultados demonstram que a cooperacao, a diversidade e a comunicacao sao elementos fundamentais para a resolucao dos conflitos provenientes das interacoes sociais dentro da organizacao.
Testing the predictive ability of the "spinal cord injury equation" in estimating vancomycin clearance.

PURPOSE A new method of estimating drug clearance in patients with spinal cord injury (SCI) was tested against other methods through a retrospective analysis of its predictive ability in estimating vancomycin clearance. METHODS A retrospective chart-based investigation was conducted at a hospital with a large SCI population. Using data collected from electronic patient records, 179 cases were reviewed, and 87 cases met the inclusion criteria: a diagnosis of longstanding SCI, administration of vancomycin via i.v. infusion during the 18-month study period, and at least one documented steady-state vancomycin concentration. Using the "spinal cord injury equation" (i.e., CL(SCI) equation), pharmacokinetic analysis was performed to determine patient-specific clearance values, which were compared to values resulting from five widely used methods of estimating the glomerular filtration rate in spinal cord-injured patients. The primary outcome measures were bias and precision, as indicated by statistical analyses to determine the mean prediction error (ME) and the square root of the mean squared prediction error (RMSE) of each method. RESULTS Compared with the other evaluated methods, the CL(SCI) equation was found to be less biased and more precise, with the smallest calculated ME and RMSE values (p < 0.05). The five alternative methods significantly overestimated vancomycin clearance, by 45-92% (p < 0.05). The CL(SCI) method underestimated vancomycin clearance (by 6%) but not to a significant degree (p = 0.06). CONCLUSION The study results suggest that the CL(SCI) equation for predicting vancomycin clearance was unbiased and may be more precise relative to other frequently used methods in the study population of patients with long-term SCI.
The Effect of Nitric Oxide Release Rates on the Oxidation of Human Low Density Lipoprotein*

1-Substituted diazen-1-ium-1,2-diolates, a class of nitric oxide (⋅NO) donor compounds that spontaneously release⋅NO at different rates, were used to investigate the effect of⋅NO release rate upon the oxidation of low density lipoprotein (LDL). All donor compounds conferred an inhibitory effect upon the oxidation of LDL; however, the effect exhibited a biphasic dependence upon the rate of ⋅NO release. The ⋅NO release rate that maximally inhibited oxidation was dependent upon the rate of oxidation. When LDL was rapidly oxidized by copper(II) sulfate, a faster release rate was more effective. In contrast, when LDL was oxidized slowly by 2,2′-azobis-2-amidinopropane hydrochloride, a slower release rate was most effective. This biphasic relationship between ⋅NO release rate and the duration of inhibition was also demonstrated when LDL oxidation was initiated with 5-amino-3-(4-morpholinyl)-1,2,3-oxadiazolium, a peroxynitrite generator. We conclude that the antioxidant ability of ⋅NO is dependent not only upon the rate of its release from ⋅NO donors, but also upon the rate of oxidation. This conclusion is supported by a kinetic model of LDL oxidation in the presence of ⋅NO.
Treillis de concepts et classification supervisée

Supervised classification is a two-step process. The first step (learning step) consists in building a model (or classifier) describing a predetermined set of data classes. In the second step (classification step), the model is used to predict the class label of previously unseen objects. In this paper we present different concept lattices-based supervised classification methods. We describe the learning and classification principle of each method, their algorithm and complexity. We also describe experimental comparison results obtained with other classification methods, as reported in the literature. We discuss advantages and limitations of concept lattices for supervised classification.
The Current State of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory

This paper provides a simple proof of a recent theorem presented by Haim Reisman (1992) concerning the use of proxies for the factors in the return-generating process of the arbitrage pricing theory. In the single-factor case, the theorem asserts that any variable correlated with the factor can serve as the benchmark in an approximate arbitrage pricing theory expected return relation. The significance of this result is considered and a new direction for empirical work on "arbitrage pricing" is outlined. Copyright 1992 by American Finance Association.