Omanibalancing: Oman confronts an uncertain future

This article examines the internal and external politics of the Sultanate of Oman. The Omani leader, Sultan Qabus, is trying to balance a variety of threats to his country and his rule. His strategy of "Omanibalancing" (i.e., of balancing internal and external threats) is unique, as well as controversial, in that Oman is befriending traditional Arab enemies, such as Iran and Israel, and searching for economic opportunities outside the region-in the Indian Ocean basin, for example. The sultan is also striving to co-opt domestic foes by maintaining Oman's standard of living and slowly liberalizing the country's political and economic systems. Proud of its recent past, the Sultanate of Oman must now consider an uncertain future without oil.1 Deprived of this resource, the sultanate's wealth and pleasant standard of living could evaporate. Mindful that their reserves of "black gold" will dry up within the next 20 or so years,2 Omanis are taking steps to transform their petroleum-based economy into a more diversified, post-oil economy. To do so, they must come to terms with an international political economic world order biased in favor of the economic superpowers and their trading blocs, a narrowly defined export strategy, a Malthusian population explosion, undue reliance on expatriate labor, a lackadaisical work ethic, corruption within the government, and a severe water shortage. Omanis must tackle these problems as well as possible regional threats from countries such as Iran. The task would appear daunting, the survival and continued prosperity of Oman problematic. Yet the sultanate is not without resources, skills, will, and vision. The country is blessed with strategic importance, an unusual if not beautiful landscape, a developed infrastructure, oil monies that can be invested wisely, and, most importantly, a one-of-a-kind leader, Sultan Qabus Bin Sa`id al-Sa`id, who is polished, well-liked, sometimes daring but usually prudent, and is rallying his people to remedy Oman's coming difficulties. In lifting his country out of economic failure and political isolation, Sultan Qabus turned the neutralist rallying cry of "neither East nor West" on its head by designing and implementing policies that reached out to both East and West. The sultan and his team of advisors-which included his ministers as well as numerous foreigners, many of them British-concluded that Omani interests, short- and long-term, could not be furthered or safeguarded unless Oman could draw upon Western economic and military resources, trade with Iran and other countries of the Arabian Peninsula, and maintain regional as well as international friendships.3 The sultanate even sought commercial ties with Israel.4 The sultan's foreign, economic and social policies are geared toward preserving the Omani "renaissance" of the last 25 years. In Qabus's words, "We're making progress, but quietly. Slowly. I believe in evolution, and not a sudden evolution. But the progress we've made is irreversible. "5 To ensure that his country's resurgence is not short lived, however, Muscat's ruler must counter both external and internal threats to the Omani state. The sultan, in short, must pursue a strategy of "omnibalancing," or, more precisely, "Omanibalancing. "6 THE OMANI PAST: FROM EMPIRE TO UNKNOWN TO RESURGENT Oman is a sparsely populated country (with only 1.6 million citizens7), but within the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) it ranks second, behind Saudi Arabia, in extent of territory. The majority of Omanis are members of the Ibadhi sect of Islam.8 In the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, Oman extended its imperial influence to Zanzibar and other parts of eastern Africa.9 In the eighteenth century, Imam Ahmad bin Sa`id unified the country and established an impressive thalassocracy. According to RAND analyst Joseph A. Kechichian, "he carried on a successful struggle to restore Oman's dominance in the Persian Gulf, through both daring and luck. …