Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Recovering Probabilities and Risk Aversion from Option Prices and Realized Returns

This paper summarizes a program of research we have conducted over the past four years. So far, it has produced two published articles, one forthcoming paper, one working paper currently under review at a journal, and three working papers in progress. The research concerns the recovery of market-wide risk-neutral probabilities and risk aversion from option prices. The work is built on the idea that risk-neutral probabilities (or their related state-contingent prices) are an amalgam of consensus subjective probabilities and consensus risk aversion. The most significant departure of this work is that it reverses the normal direction of previous research, which typically moves from assumptions governing subjective probabilities and risk aversion, to conclusions about risk-neutral probabilities. Our work is partially motivated by the conspicuous failure of the Black-Scholes formula to explain the prices of index options in the post-1987 crash market. First, we independently estimate risk-neutral probabilities, taking advantage of the now highly liquid index option market. We show that, if the options market is free of general arbitrage opportunities and we can at least initially ignore trading costs, there are quite robust methods for recovering these probabilities. Second, with these probabilities in hand, we use the method of implied binomial trees to recover a consistent stochastic process followed by the underlying asset price. Third, we provide an empirical test of implied trees against alternative option pricing models (including “naive trader” approaches) by using them to forecast future option smiles. Fourth, we argue that realized historical distributions will be a reliable proxy for certain aspects of the true subjective distributions. We then use these observed aspects together with the option-implied risk-neutral probabilities to estimate market-wide risk aversion.
Applying RFID Technology to Improve User Interaction in Novel Environments

At present our surrounding environment is constantly changing, the impact of new technologies and the information age is spreading dizzily in environments that were previously unthinkable. In order to take advantage of new technological developments we need solutions adapted to the rhythm of everyday life. The interaction with applications has changed. Nowadays we aim to find new scenarios where the interaction between user and computer needs to be improved. We keep advancing, moving closer and closer to the idea of ubiquitous computing . All objects will be connected and the computer user will be involved. Thus, we will be closer to the natural way in which people interact with the environment. To achieve this type of scenarios we make use of the different advantages offered by mobile technologies, communication Wi-Fi (IEEE 802.11) and identification (RFID). In this paper we describe the development and implementation of three different case studies, actually implementing the concept of context-awareness, location awareness and Internet of Things . In the first case, we describe GUIMUININ (Wireless Intelligent Museum Guides). This is a context-awareness project aim to improve the user experience in museums, so that users can see their location on any of the floors of the building and receive multimedia information on the museum item they select. In the second case, the project RCAR (Robotic Context Awareness by RFID) creates an environment sensitive to the location of a robot, which develops a tracking system and high resolution scanning for indoor or outdoor environments.The third case is the project Co-Interactive Table (Collaborative Interactive Table) that presents a digitalized table with RFID technology which executes collaborative tasks in a meeting room, face-to-face or remotely. This article has six sections. Section 2 describes a RFID system and defines some concepts: context-awareness, Ubiquitous Computing, the Internet of Things and the types of interaction from user to new systems depending on the level attention. Section 4 presents the general infrastructure of RFID systems. In section 5, we describe our RFID systems and present their advantages and disadvantages. Finally, conclusions are set out in Section 6.
Distributed Peer-to-Peer Cooperative Partitional-Divisive Clustering for gene expression datasets

Clustering techniques are helpful in understanding gene regulation, cellular processes, and subtypes of cells. A major thrust of gene expression analysis over the last twenty years has been the acquisition of enormous amount of various distributed sources of gene expression datasets. Thus, it is becoming increasingly important to perform clustering of distributed data in-place, without the need to pool it first into a central node. The general goal of distributed clustering is achieving a level of speedup than the centralized approaches. A recent study shows that centralized cooperative clustering outperforms the non-cooperative centralized clustering approaches. In this paper a novel distributed cooperative partitional-divisive clustering in a peer-to-peer network is presented. The distributed CPDC approach is based on intermediate cooperation between the Partitional k-means and the divisive bisecting k-means in a distributed Peer-to-Peer network to produce better global solutions. Computational experiments were conducted to test the performance of the distributed CPDC approach using different gene expression datasets. Undertaken experimental results show that the performance of the distributed CPDC method is better than that of the non-cooperative distributed k-means and distributed bisecting k-means. Thus a new cooperative technique for distributed gene expression repositories is efficiently presented to discover regularities and genes that may span multiple nodes.
Indirect Estimation of Just-Identified Models with Control Variates

Simulation estimators, such as indirect inference or simulated maximum likelihood, are successfully employed for estimating models where the likelihood function does not have a simple analytical expression. They adjust for the bias (inconsistency) produced by the estimation of an auxiliary model that can be manageable, but is essentially misspecified. The price to be paid is an increased variance of the estimated parameters. A component of the variance depends on the stochastic simulation involved in the estimation procedure. To reduce this undesirable effect, one should properly increase the number of simulations (or the length of each simulation) and thus the computational cost. Alternatively, this paper shows how variance reduction can be achieved, at virtually no additional computational cost, by use of control variates. This technique can be easily applied in the just-identified context, that is when the number of parameters is the same in the econometric model (the model of interest) and the auxiliary model. This is a case which often occurs in practical applications. Several models are explicitly considered and experimented with: moving average model, Arma model, stochastic differential equations, dynamic Tobit model, discrete time stochastic volatility models, logit models with random effects. Monte Carlo experiments show, in some cases, a global efficiency gain up to almost 50% over the simplest indirect estimator, obtained at about the same computational cost
HIV Testing & Risky Sexual Behavior

HIV testing is one of the key policy responses to the HIV/AIDS epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa, yet there is little rigorous evidence on how testing a ects sexual behavior. Using data from a study that randomly assigns o ers of HIV testing in two urban centers in East Africa, I examine the e ects of testing, taking into account people's beliefs of their HIV status prior to testing. I objectively measure risky sexual behavior using gonorrhea and chlamydia infections (sexually transmitted infections or STIs ) contracted during the 6 month study as proxies. I nd large behavioral responses to HIV tests when tests provide new information to individuals. Individuals surprised by an HIV-positive test are over nine times more likely to contract an STI compared to a similar untested control group, indicating an increase in risky sexual behavior. Individuals surprised by an HIV-negative test are 84% less likely to contract an STI relative to a similar untested control group, indicating a decrease in risky sexual behavior. When HIV tests agree with a person's belief of HIV status there is no change in the incidence of STIs, implying no change in sexual behavior. Using these estimates, I simulate the e ects of testing on new HIV infections in urban areas in Kenya, Mozambique, and Zambia, and nd that under certain circumstances, the overall number of HIV infections increase when people are tested compared to when they are unaware of their status an unintended consequence of testing. JEL Codes: D84, I18, O12
Second-site Suppressor Mutations for the Serine 202 to Phenylalanine Substitution within the Interdomain Loop of the Tetracycline Efflux Protein Tet(C)*

The serine 202 to phenylalanine substitution within the cytoplasmic interdomain loop of Tet(C) greatly reduces tetracycline resistance and efflux activity (Saraceni-Richards, C. A., and Levy, S. B. (2000) J. Biol. Chem. 275, 6101–6106). Second-site suppressor mutations were identified following hydroxylamine and nitrosoguanidine mutagenesis. Three mutations, L11F in transmembrane 1 (TM1), A213T in the central interdomain loop, and A270V in cytoplasmic loop 8–9, restored a wild type level of resistance and an active efflux activity in Escherichia coli cells bearing the mutant tet(C) gene. The Tet S202F protein with the additional A270V mutation was expressed in amounts comparable with the original mutant, whereas L11F and A213T Tet(C) protein mutants were overexpressed. Introduction of each single mutation into the wild type tet(C) gene by site-directed mutagenesis did not alter tetracycline resistance or efflux activity. These secondary mutations may restore resistance by promoting a conformational change in the protein to accommodate the S202F mutation. The data demonstrate an interaction of the interdomain loop with other distant regions of the protein and support a role of the interdomain loop in mediating tetracycline resistance.
Diversification recommendation of popular articles in micro-blog scenario

With the information overload in web services, micro-blog has been increasingly providing as a media for end-users to express their opinions. The notable feature of micro-blog articles is prone to be a burst of popularity during a short period. In addition, diverse interests make users bored in redundant items in most recommender systems. Therefore, providing users with diverse popular micro-blogs that suit their interesting topics is an important issue. In this paper, depending on forwarding number and comment number of micro-blogs, an effective model for popularity prediction is proposed to discover popular topics. Then, a MaxMin diversity algorithm based on content distance and popularity density is proposed to discover top k micro-blogs. Finally, we design a diverse personalized popularity attention (DPPA) recommendation approach for target user. We conduct extensive experiments on large scale micro-blog datasets. The experimental results show that our proposed approach can satisfy user's requirements with a higher recall than personal attention methods.
Research on Design and Control of Microgrid SystemResearch on Design and Control of Microgrid SystemResearch on Design and Control of Microgrid System

Microgrid system has received more and more attention internationally in recent years. As the most effective form of distributed generations, microgrid system has also found wide applications in many areas. In this paper, the optimal configuration issue of microgrid system is described briefly first. And then the monitoring system of microgrid system is discussed in details. Different control methods of microgrid system and their advantages and shortcomings are analyzed later. The comparative analysis of different control methods is carried out. Finally, a laboratory- scale microgrid system is proposed as an example to verify the microgrid control strategy. The operation experimental results show that the laboratory-scale microgrid system can operate in grid-connected or islanded mode, with a seamless transfer from one mode to the other, and hence increase the reliability of energy supplies. The study can be used to guide the research of microgrid systems.
Defined Deletion Mutants Demonstrate that the Major Secreted Toxins Are Not Essential for the Virulence ofAeromonas salmonicida

ABSTRACT The importance of the two major extracellular enzymes ofAeromonas salmonicida, glycerophospholipid:cholesterol acyltransferase (GCAT) and a serine protease (AspA), to the pathology and mortality of salmonid fish with furunculosis had been indicated in toxicity studies. In this study, the genes encoding GCAT (satA) and AspA (aspA) have been cloned and mutagenized by marker replacement of internal deletions, and the constructs have been used for the creation of isogenic satAand aspA mutants of A. salmonicida. A pSUP202 derivative (pSUP202sac) carrying the sacRB genes was constructed to facilitate the selection of mutants. The requirement of serine protease for processing of pro-GCAT was demonstrated. Processing involved the removal of a short internal fragment. Surprisingly, pathogenicity trials revealed no major decrease in virulence of theA. salmonicida ΔsatA::kan orA. salmonicida ΔaspA::kan mutants compared to the wild-type parent strains when Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar L.) were challenged by intraperitoneal injection. Moreover, using a cohabitation model, which more closely mimics the natural disease, there was also no significant decrease in the relative cumulative mortality following infection with either of the deletion mutants compared to the parent strain. Thus, although these two toxins may confer some competitive advantage to A. salmonicida, neither toxin is essential for the very high virulence of A. salmonicida in Atlantic salmon. This first report of defined deletion mutations within any proposed extracellular virulence factor of A. salmonicida raises crucial questions about the pathogenesis of this important fish pathogen.
Antibodies probe for folded monomeric myosin in relaxed and contracted smooth muscle

Regulatory light chain phosphorylation is required for assembly of smooth and non-muscle myosins in vitro, but its effect on polymerization within the cell is not understood. Relaxed smooth muscle cells contain dephosphorylated thick filaments, but this does not exclude the presence of a pool of folded myosin monomers which could be recruited to assemble when phosphorylated, thus forming part of smooth muscle's activation pathway. To test this hypothesis, relaxed and contracted avian gizzard cryosections were labeled with a fluorescently conjugated monoclonal antibody specific for the folded monomeric conformation, or with an antibody against the tip of the tail whose epitope is accessible in the monomeric but not the filamentous state. Fluorescence intensity observed in the two physiological states was quantitated by digital imaging microscopy. Only trace amounts of folded monomeric myosin were detected in both the relaxed and contracted states. The amount of monomer also did not increase when alpha-toxin permeabilized gizzard was equilibrated in a solvent that disassembles filaments in vitro. Assembly/disassembly is therefore unlikely to play a major role in regulating the contraction/relaxation cycle in smooth muscle cells.
Irregular Magnetic Fields in Interstellar Clouds and the Linear Polarization of Starlight

Calculations are performed for the linear polarization of starlight due to extinction by aligned dust grains when the starlight traverses a medium with irregular magnetic fields. This medium is intended to represent the optically thick components of interstellar clouds that are observed to make little, if any, contribution to the polarization of starlight. In agreement with the observations, we find that the polarization properties of the starlight—the average fractional polarization and the dispersion in position angles—can be essentially unchanged. For this, the rms of the irregular component must be greater than the average magnetic field, which in turn tends to imply that the turbulent velocities in these interstellar clouds are super-Alfvénic.
Relationship between gene expression of duodenal iron transporters and iron stores in hemochromatosis subjects.

To test the hypothesis that differences in duodenal iron absorption may explain the variable phenotypic expression among HFE C282Y homozygotes, we have compared relative gene expression of duodenal iron transporters among C282Y homozygotes [hereditary hemochromatosis (HH)] with and without iron overload. Duodenal biopsy samples were analyzed using real-time PCR for expression of DMT1, FPN1, DCYTB, and HEPH relative to GAPDH from 23 C282Y homozygotes, including 5 "nonexpressors" (serum ferritin < upper limit of normal and absence of phenotypic features of hemochromatosis) and 18 "expressors. " Four subjects of wild type for HFE mutations without iron overload or liver disease served as controls. There was a significant difference in expression of DMT1 (P = 0.03) and DMT1(IRE) (P = 0.0013) but not FPN1, DCYTB, or HEPH between groups. Expression of DMT1(IRE) was increased among HH subjects after phlebotomy compared with untreated (P = 0.006) and nonexpressor groups (P = 0.026). A positive relationship was observed among all HH subjects regardless of phenotype or treatment status between relative expression of FPN1 and DMT1 (r = 0.5854, P = 0.0021), FPN1, and DCYTB (r = 0.5554, P = 0.0040), FPN1 and HEPH (r = 0.5100, P = 0.0092), and DCYTB and HEPH (r = 0.5400, P = 0.0053). In summary, phlebotomy is associated with upregulation of DMT1(IRE) expression in HH subjects. HFE C282Y homozygotes without phenotypic expression do not have significantly decreased duodenal gene expression of iron transport genes compared with HH subjects with iron overload. There is coordinated regulation between duodenal expression of FPN1 and DMT1, FPN1 and DCYTB, and FPN1 and HEPH and also DCYTB and HEPH in HH subjects regardless of phenotype.
Replication-Deficient Particles: New Insights into the Next Generation of Bluetongue Virus Vaccines

ABSTRACT Bluetongue virus (BTV) is endemic in many parts of the world, often causing severe hemorrhagic disease in livestock. To date, at least 27 different serotypes have been recognized. Vaccination against all serotypes is necessary to protect susceptible animals and to prevent onward spread of the virus by insect vectors. In our previous studies, we generated replication-deficient (disabled infectious single-cycle [DISC]) virus strains for a number of serotypes and reported preliminary data on their protective efficacy in animals. In this report, to advance the DISC vaccines to the marketplace, we investigated different parameters of these DISC vaccines. First, we demonstrated the genetic stabilities of these vaccine strains and also the complementing cell line. Subsequently, the optimal storage conditions of vaccines, including additives, temperature, and desiccation, were determined and their protective efficacies in animals confirmed. Furthermore, to test if mixtures of different vaccine strains could be tolerated, we tested cocktails of DISC vaccines in combinations of three or six different serotypes in sheep and cattle, the two natural hosts of BTV. Groups of sheep vaccinated with a cocktail of six different vaccines were completely protected from challenge with individual virulent serotypes, both in early challenge and after 5 months of challenge without any clinical disease. There was no interference in protection between the different vaccines. Protection was also achieved in cattle with a mixture of three vaccine strains, albeit at a lesser level than in sheep. Our data support and validate the suitability of these virus strains as the next-generation vaccines for BTV. IMPORTANCE Bluetongue (BT) is a debilitating and in many cases lethal disease that affects ruminants of economic importance. Classical vaccines that afford protection against bluetongue virus, the etiological agent, are not free from secondary and undesirable effects. A surge in new approaches to produce highly attenuated, safer vaccines was evident after the development of the BTV reverse-genetics system that allows the introduction of targeted mutations in the virus genome. We targeted an essential gene to develop disabled virus strains as vaccine candidates. The results presented in this report further substantiate our previous evidence and support the suitability of these virus strains as the next-generation BTV vaccines.
Urban traffic flow prediction based on road network model

This paper addresses an issue of short-term traffic flow prediction in urban traffic networks with traffic signals in intersections. An effective spatial prediction approach is proposed based on a macroscopic urban traffic network model. In contrast with other time series based or spatio-temporal correlation methods, this research focuses on the substantial mechanism of vehicles transmission on road segments and the spatial model of the entire urban network. Furthermore, this approach employs a simple speed-density model based on the macroscopic fundamental diagram (MFD) to obtain a more accurate vehicle travel time on the link. Finally, the microscopic traffic simulation software, CORSIM, is adopted to simulate the real urban traffic, and the proposed method is used to predict the traffic flows generated by CORSIM. The simulation results illustrate that our approach performs effective prediction timely in the rush hours, as well as the suddenly changed traffic states.
Handicap-Recover Evolution Leads to a Chemically Versatile, Nucleophile-Permissive Protease

Mutation of the tobacco etch virus (TEV) protease nucleophile from cysteine to serine causes an approximately ∼104‐fold loss in activity. Ten rounds of directed evolution of the mutant, TEVSer, overcame the detrimental effects of nucleophile exchange to recover near‐wild‐type activity in the mutant TEVSerX. Rather than respecialising TEV to the new nucleophile, all the enzymes along the evolutionary trajectory also retained the ability to use the original cysteine nucleophile. Therefore the adaptive evolution of TEVSer is paralleled by a neutral trajectory for TEVCys, in which mutations that increase serine nucleophile reactivity hardly affect the reactivity of cysteine. This apparent nucleophile permissiveness explains how nucleophile switches can occur in the phylogeny of the chymotrypsin‐like protease PA superfamily. Despite the changed key component of their chemical mechanisms, the evolved variants TEVSerX and TEVCysX have similar activities; this could potentially facilitate escape from adaptive conflict to enable active‐site evolution.
Short term price forecasting in deregulated electricity markets: A review of statistical models and key issues

Purpose – Several research papers related to electricity price forecasting have been reported in the leading journals in last 20 years. The purpose of this paper is to present a comprehensive survey and comparison of these techniques.Design/methodology/approach – The present article provides an overview of the statistical short‐term price forecasting (STPF) models. The basic theory of these models, their further classification and their suitability to STPF has been discussed. Quantitative evaluation of the performance of these models in the framework of accuracy achieved and computation time taken has been performed. Some important observations of the literature survey and key issues regarding STPF methodologies are analyzed.Findings – It has been observed that price forecasting accuracy of the reported models in day‐ahead markets is better as compared to that in real time markets. From a comparative analysis perspective, there is no hard evidence of out‐performance of one model over all other models on a.