Competitive Balance in College Football: Additional Analysis on the Effects of Changes in Conference

Numerous studies (Perline & Stoldt, 2007; Perline, Stoldt & Vermillion, 2012: Rhoads, 2004) have indicated that changes in college athletic conference membership at the NCAA Division I FBS level result in greater levels of competitive balance in football. The purpose of this study is to determine if member churning in the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) and the Big East between the years of 1999 and 2011 led to a greater degree of competitive analysis. Three methods of assessing competitive balance were employed. Two—the standard deviation of winning percentages and the Hirfindahl-Hirschman Index—are commonly used in competitive balance studies. The authors included range of winning percentages as an additional method. Results indicate that competitive balance in football improved in both conferences after changes in membership. This aligns the findings of this study with previous research and supports the contention that football is the primary consideration when conferences make changes in their membership (Fort & Quirk, 1999). 1 Stoldt et al.: Competitive Balance Published by Digital Commons @ Kent State University Libraries, 2013 Stoldt, Perline & Vermillion 131 Over the next four years, 32 institutions will change conference affiliation for football at the NCAA Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (NCAA D-1 FBS) level (“NCAA Division I.,” 2012). The last 10 years saw 30 NCAA D-I FBS schools change conference affiliation for football (NBC Sports, n.d.). The reasons for these changes in conference membership, often referred to as member churning, are myriad, ranging from political squabbles (see, for example, the case of Texas AM Wieberg & Berkowitz, 2011) to opportunities to achieve automatic qualifier status for the now soon-to-be extinct Bowl Championship Series (see, for example, the case of Boise State as described in NewsCore, 2012). Economic considerations are often a major factor in realignment decisions (Depken II, n.d.; Mitchell, 2011; Thamel, 2011; Wieberg & Berkowitz, 2011). Further, football has been identified as the key sport in realignment decisions (Fort & Quick, 1999; Thamel, 2011; Wieberg & Berkowitz, 2011). Certainly, competitive balance is a relevant consideration in discussions about the effects of member churning. It is related to revenue maximization because of its relationship to consumer demand (Depken & Wilson, n.d; Dittmore & Crow, 2010; Humphreys, 2002; Rein, Kotler & Shields 2006; Rhoads, 2004). The uncertainty of outcome hypothesis states that fan interest (e.g., ticket sales, television viewership) is higher for games between more equally matched opponents than for games featuring mismatches. There are also ethical dimensions to competitive balance in college sports, as providing a level playing field for member institutions is one of the goals of athletic conferences (Rhoads, 2004; Staurowsky & Abney, 2011). Several studies have been conducted over the last decade examining the effects of member churning on competitive balance in conferences at the NCAA D-I FBS level. Conferences studied have included the Big XII (Perline & Stoldt, 2007), Conference USA (Perline, Stoldt & Vermillion, 2012), Mountain West (Rhoads, 2004) and Western Athletic Conference (Rhoads, 2004). In each case, analysis of competitive balance in the sport of football has indicated an improvement in competitive balance after the most recent round 2 The Journal of SPORT, Vol. 2 [2013], Iss. 2, Art. 3 http://digitalcommons.kent. edu/sport/vol2/iss2/3 Competitive Balance 132 of churning (Perline & Stoldt, 2007; Perline et al, 2012; Rhoads, 2004). Given past studies, it seems appropriate to further investigate whether increased churning leads to the same results. The purpose of this study, then, is to analyze how member churning affects competitive balance in college football for conferences at the NCAA D-I FBS level. To investigate this, we compare competitive balance in two conferences, the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) and the Big East, before and after membership changes that occurred following the 2003 and 2004 seasons. After those seasons, the ACC grew from 9 to 12 teams, and the Big East welcomed six new members after the departure of four others. Such analysis is important as scholars and practitioners continue to ascertain the impact of member churning and related considerations in the sport that drives the process of realignment.