Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Forecasting volatility in GARCH models with additive outliers

One of the main concerns of the financial analyst is to obtain an adequate forecast of volatility, given that this is perceived as an explicit measurement of risk. Ever since the seminal work of Engle (1982), the literature has reflected numerous specifications to forecast such volatility (see, in this regard, the recent paper of McAleer (2005)). However, from amongst these specifications, it is undoubtedly the GARCH models proposed by Bollerslev (1986) that have been the most widely employed.y By contrast, only limited attention has been paid to the influence that outliers can have on the forecasting of these GARCH models, even though it is well known that they can markedly distort the analysis of time series. More specifically, their effects are threefold: firstly, they can significantly alter the simple and partial autocorrelation functions used to identify ARCH models (see Burnd and Ord 1984, Tsay 1986, Balke 1993, Chan 1995); secondly, they have a negative effect on the size and power of the Lagrange multipliers (LM) test used to detect the presence of ARCH effects in a time series, leading to important specification errors (Franses et al. 1998, Franses and van Dijk 1997, van Dijk et al. 1999); thirdly, they give rise to an important bias in the estimations of the parameters of the said models (Friedman and Laibson 1989, Lamoureux and Lastrapes 1990, Hotta and Tsay 1998, Sakata and White 1998, Franses and Ghijsels 1999, Franses and van Dijk 1999, Gregory and Reeves 2001, Chan and McAleer 2003). Whilst a number of studies, such as those of Franses and van Dijk (1999), Franses and Ghijsels (1999) or Park (2002), have considered the effects of outliers on the forecasting of these models,z none of them have dealt rigorously with the effects that the different types of outliers (level outliers and volatility outliers) have on the forecasting of volatility, understood in terms of GARCH models as heteroscedastic variance. Against this background, it is the aim of this note to analyse such effects, concentrating on the GARCH model. More specifically, we seek to quantify the effect of two types of additive outliers, namely additive level outliers (hereafter ALO) and additive volatility outliers (hereafter AVO) on the forecasting of the conditional variance of the GARCH(1,1) model. To that end, in section 2 we begin by defining these two types of outliers in the context of the model in question. In section 3, and starting from the ideal, although somewhat unreal, assumption that the parameters of the model, the period in which the outliers take place and their type are all
Isolation and characterization of a T-lymphocyte somatic mutant with altered signal transduction by the antigen receptor.

We have developed an approach for deriving and characterizing antigen-receptor (CD3/Ti) signal-transduction mutants. This strategy combines receptor-mediated growth inhibition and fluorescence-activated cell sorting with the Ca2+-indicator indo-1. Despite the expression of structurally normal CD3/Ti complexes, one such mutant (J.CaM1) fails to exhibit inositolphospholipid metabolism or Ca2+ mobilization in response to anti-CD3 or anti-Ti monoclonal antibodies and fails to produce lymphokines in response to these antibodies. Surprisingly, anti-Ti antibody retains its effectiveness as a stimulus for the down-regulation of CD3/Ti surface expression. These cells remain responsive to AIF-4, at least one anti-CD3 antibody, and some combinations of nonagonist anti-Ti and anti-CD3 antibodies. The mutation in J.CaM1 appears to lie in a proximal component of the signal-transduction apparatus.
Tourism Managers’ Adoption of Marketing Decision Support Systems

This article draws on a survey among tourism managers located in 30 different European countries to explain key factors affecting the success of an Internet-based marketing decision support systems. A structural equation model that extends the generally accepted Technology Acceptance Model is proposed and tested to assess the relationships among the following constructs: experience, task-related factors, user attitude, perceived ease of use, perceived usefulness of the system, and actual use behavior. The results indicate that the actual use of the system is strongly dependent on perceived ease of use and perceived usefulness. The study also revealed a statistically significant relationship between the user’s experience and his or her attitude of information technology in general. In addition, a strong influence of the complexity and the time pressure experienced in the work environment on perceived usefulness was observed. Implications focus on user support, especially more detailed information on system content and functionality.
The Effect of Fair Value versus Historical Cost Reporting Model on Analyst Forecast Accuracy

ABSTRACT: This paper examines how the reporting model for a firm's operating assets affects analyst forecast accuracy. We contrast U.K. and U.S. investment property firms having real estate as their primary operating asset, exploiting that U.K. (U.S.) firms report these assets at fair value (historical cost). We assess the accuracy of a balance-sheet-based forecast (net asset value, or NAV) and an income-statement-based forecast (earnings per share, or EPS). We predict and find higher NAV forecast accuracy for U.K. relative to U.S. firms, consistent with the fair value reporting model revealing private information that is incorporated into analysts' balance sheet forecasts. We find this difference is attenuated when the fair value and historical cost models are more likely to converge: during recessionary periods. Finally, we predict and find lower EPS forecast accuracy for U.K. firms when reporting under the full fair value model of IFRS, in which unrealized fair value gains and losses are included in ne.
“I've been NIATxed”: Participants' Experience with Process Improvement

Abstract Process improvement strategies provide industries with a method for improving outcomes and performance at a low cost and with minimal training. In Los Angeles County, two process improvement projects were implemented as a way to improve access to, and engagement and retention in, alcohol and other drug abuse treatment. A qualitative evaluation was completed after the Phase II pilot project to assess how the providers felt about the project, what worked, what did not work, what was learned, and the degree to which process improvements changed program operations. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 33 individuals, representing every level of staff participation in the project. Overall, comments indicated a positive experience for staff, administrators, and clients. Providers noted the relative ease of implementation and how quickly changes resulted in impressive improvements. Challenging issues included resistant staff or a lack of additional resources to pay for the project; however, most noted that these issues were resolved. Interview participants also requested more training on data collection and a reduction in the frequency of the project conference calls. This study gives support to the idea of process improvement being a tool that dramatically improves services to consumers of addiction treatment services.
Rent-Seeking and Municipal Social Spending

The term rent-seeking refers to special interest group efforts to seek special benefits at little or no cost to themselves. Because government spending has the potential to create both costs and benefits for taxpayers, fiscal policy is commonly viewed as a primary arena of rent-seeking activity. At least five different theories of nineteenth-century American urban development fit this general rubric. Each theory predicts different winners and losers as well as different underlying strategies and distributions of interests incumbent upon municipal decision making. This study uses two-wave panel data on special interest group representation and municipal social spending to examine the validity of these different theories of rent-seeking. Though all such theories share in commonan emphasis on self-seeking, this study points to the role of competition between different sectors of the local economy as a motivating force for the formation and mobilization of special interest group organizations. This finding contrasts with those rent-seeking theories that predict widespread cooperation among communities and/or classes in pursuit of common goals. Suggestions for future research on this topic are offered as well.
Why the South African NQF Failed: lessons for countries wanting to introduce national qualifications frameworks

This article examines the South African National Qualifications Framework as a case study of a particular approach to the design of qualifications frameworks, which revolves around the specification of learning outcomes separate from educational institutions or programmes. It shows how an outcomes-led qualifications framework was seen as a desirable policy intervention by educationalists and reformers across the political spectrum, as outcomes were thought to be a mechanism for improving the quality and quantity of education as well as its relevance to the economy and society, for increasing access to education, and for democratising education. All these claims are based on the idea that outcomes statements are transparent. The article demonstrates that outcomes-based qualifications cannot provide the clear, unambiguous, and explicit statements of competence that would be required for everyone to know what it is that the bearer of a qualification can do. This lack of transparency leads to a further specification of outcomes. This in turn leads to a downward spiral of specification, which never reaches transparency, and an upward spiral of regulations, which is also caught in the logical problem of the downward spiral of specification. This model is not just unnecessary, but could in fact undermine the provision of education. The article suggests that while this type of model appears attractive particularly to poor countries, it is in these countries that it is likely to do the most damage.
The Confounding Effect of Cost Stickiness on Conservatism Estimates

Sales decreases affect earnings more than sales increases because of cost stickiness. We hypothesize that this correlated omitted variable constitutes a confounding effect in standard asymmetric timeliness models. Controlling for a piecewise linear effect of sales changes in these models decreases the measured asymmetric timeliness significantly and changes inferences about the average level of conservatism and the extent of cross-sectional variation in conservatism. Validation tests confirm that the asymmetry for sales changes is consistent with sticky costs and is distinct from conditional conservatism. Future empirical research on conditional conservatism should recognize the potential confounding effect of sticky costs.
Decidability Questions for Petri Nets

An understanding of the mathematical properties of Petri Nets is essential when one wishes to use Petri Nets as an abstract model for concurrent systems. The decidability of various problems which arise in this context is an important aspect of this question. The fact that these problems also arise in the context of other mathematical theories, such as commutative semigroups, closure under linear relations, Matrix Context-Free grammars, or Weak Counter Automata, provides further motivation. The Reachability Problem for Vector Addition Systems - whose decidability is still an open question - is of central importance. We show that a number of Petri Net problems are recursively equivalent to this problem. These include the Liveness Problem (e.g. can a system reach a deadlocked state? ), the persistence problem (can a given transition ever be disabled by the firing of another transition? ), and the membership and emptiness problems for certain classes of languages generated by Petri Nets. The power of the unrestricted Petri Net model is illustrated by various undecidable equivalence results. In particular, we show that the equality of Reachability Sets and the equivalence of two Petri Nets in terms of their language-generating capability are recursive undecidable. It is hoped that the constructions used to prove our results will shed some light on the source of the complexities of the unrestricted Petri Net model, and may eventually permit us to achieve an optimal balance between representational transparency and analytical power of the Petri Net model.
Search Method Use by Unemployed Youth

This article presents a search model which shows that search method choices should be related to their costs and expected productivities as well as to nonwage income and wage offer distributions. The empirical evidence then shows that the most frequently used search methods (i.e., friends and relatives and direct applications without referral) are also the most productive in generating offers and acceptances. The number of methods used is affected by factors that presumably reflect opportunities as well as income sources and needs. Specific methods are chosen in a manner that generates positive average effects on outcomes for those using them.
Development and Validation of an Employee Voice Strategy Scale through Four Studies in Japan

Employee voice is an important organizational behavior that affects work group performance, and many studies have explored its mechanism; nonetheless, the existing literature narrowly defines the construct and overlooks a variety of strategic approaches employees take as they engage in voice. Based on this problematization, the current research has developed and validated a scale of employee voice strategy through four studies in Japan (total N = 1,156). Employee voice strategy is defined as a set of direct and indirect communicative approaches that organizational members utilize to share ideas with intentions to exert constructive influence to their work group. Studies 1 and 2 analyzed interview narratives to develop an initial typology, which was refined in Study 3 into a six-factor scale. Study 4 replicated it through confirmatory factor analyses. Construct validity of the scale was also examined by testing the strategy factors’ nomological network—as expected, proactive personality was positively associated with assertive strategies, while relationship maintenance goal orientation was linked to conciliatory, nonconfrontational strategies; negative emotion display showed negative associations with voice strategy use in general. These findings were discussed vis-a-vis culturally inclusive human resource management practices, as well as theoretical exploration of the employee voice phenomena from process-centered perspectives
Human Resource Accounting System in Selected Indian Companies

The human resource may be seen as the most fundamental of all available resources to an economy or an organization. Human resources are energies, skills, talents and knowledge of people that are or can be potentially applied to the production of goods and services. Corporations cannot run by machines or systems alone, however smart those may be. The human element in it is inevitable, even for knowledge based lean organizations of the 21st century. It is an irony that valuation of this important asset is not reflected in the books of accounts. However to enhance goodwill and attract investors, need is being felt for human resource accounting. In our present paper, an attempt has been made to do the comparative study of the human resource accounting practices of CCI, HPCL, Infosys and Rolta India Limited. The variables that are important for the purpose of human resource accounting are identified and by analyzing, the annual reports of these selected companies scores are assigned to the organizations and mean scores for these organizations were calculated. Ranks to the organizations are also given based upon the extent of the HRA information reported in their annual reports.
The Impact of Size, Stock Market Listing and Industry Type on Disclosure in the Annual Reports of Japanese Listed Corporations

Abstract This paper represents a contribution to rigorous testing of Japanese financial reporting and specifically reports on the impact of size, stock market listing and industry type on disclosure, both voluntary and mandatory, in the annual reports of Japanese listed corporations. The topic is of interest because findings in one country may not be applicable to Japan because of its so-called unique business environment and unique culture. It is found that size and listing status are important explanatory variables. In addition, manufacturing corporations were found to disclose significantly more information than other types of Japanese corporations. The interaction between industry type and quotation status was also found to be significant.
The People and the Party System: The Referendum and Electoral Reform in British Politics

Preface Introduction Part I. The Referendum, 1890-1980 Part II. The Referendum and the Constitution Part III. Proportional Representation, 1831-1979 Part IV. The Case for Electoral Reform Part V. Alternative Electoral Systems Conclusion Notes to the text Bibliography Indexes.
Changes in mitochondrial functioning with electromagnetic radiation of ultra high frequency as revealed by electron paramagnetic resonance methods

Abstract Purpose: To study the effects of electromagnetic radiation (EMR) of ultra high frequency (UHF) in the doses equivalent to the maximal permitted energy load for the staffs of the radar stations on the biochemical processes that occur in the cell organelles. Materials and methods: Liver, cardiac and aorta tissues from the male rats exposed to non-thermal UHF EMR in pulsed and continuous modes were studied during 28 days after the irradiation by the electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) methods including a spin trapping of superoxide radicals. Results: The qualitative and quantitative disturbances in electron transport chain (ETC) of mitochondria are registered. A formation of the iron-nitrosyl complexes of nitric oxide (NO) radicals with the iron-sulphide (FeS) proteins, the decreased activity of FeS-protein N2 of NADH-ubiquinone oxidoreductase complex and flavo-ubisemiquinone growth combined with the increased rates of superoxide production are obtained. Conclusions: (i) Abnormalities in the mitochondrial ETC of liver and aorta cells are more pronounced for animals radiated in a pulsed mode; (ii) the alterations in the functioning of the mitochondrial ETC cause increase of superoxide radicals generation rate in all samples, formation of cellular hypoxia, and intensification of the oxide-initiated metabolic changes; and (iii) electron paramagnetic resonance methods could be used to track the qualitative and quantitative changes in the mitochondrial ETC caused by the UHF EMR.
Generation of a Precise and Efficient Lane-Level Road Map for Intelligent Vehicle Systems

The development of intelligent vehicle systems has resulted in an increased need for a high-precision road map. However, conventional road maps that are used for vehicle navigation systems or geographical information systems (GISs) are insufficient to satisfy new requirements of intelligent vehicle systems such as autonomous driving. There are three primary road-map requirements for intelligent vehicle systems: centimeter-level accuracy, storage efficiency, and usability. However, no existing researches have met these three requirements simultaneously. In this paper, we propose a precise and efficient lane-level road-map generation system that conforms to the requirements all together. The proposed map-building process consists of three steps: 1) data acquisition, 2) data processing, and 3) road modeling. The road data acquisition and processing system captures accurate 3-D road geometry data by acquiring data with a mobile 3-D laser scanner. The road geometry data are then refined to extract meta information, and in the road modeling system, the refined data are represented as sets of piecewise polynomials to ensure storage efficiency and usability of the map. The proposed mapping system has been extensively tested and evaluated on a real urban road and highway. The experimental results show that the proposed mapping system outperforms conventional systems in terms of the road-map requirements.
Affective impairment in young acute schizophrenics: Its structure, course and prognostic significance

ABSTRACT— In order to investigate the structure, longitudinal course, and significance of affect impairments in young acute schizophrenics, we prospectively studied a group of 37 consecutively admitted acute inpatients at baseline and 26 months later (n= 19). They were evaluated at both points on a multidimensional affect rating scale, psychopathology rating scales, and tests of attention and motorium. Additionally, they were assessed on historical and subdiagnostic variables at baseline and on level of functioning at follow‐up. Factor analysis revealed three reliably measured affect components: emotional unrelatedness, expressive immobility, and inappropriateness of affect. The first two factors were strongly interrelated and associated also with the BPRS depression factor at baseline. All four affective dimensions proved unstable over the course of 2 years and produced different sets of correlates at the two points of time. In the acute phase, only the depression factor carried favorable prognostic import (r = 0.52, P < 0.05). Emotional unrelatedness and expressive immobility were of unfavorable consequence only when observed in the follow‐up stage. Thus, the affect profile seemed to be an evolving rather than a static phenomenon, precluding generalizations across the early course of schizophrenia. Possible interpretations of the baseline overlap between affect deficits and depression were discussed as well as their different prognostic implications.
A Clinicopathologic Analysis of 45 Patients With Metaplastic Breast Carcinoma.

OBJECTIVES Metaplastic breast carcinomas (MBCs) are rare, aggressive cancers lacking targeted therapy. Here, we review the clinicopathologic features, treatment, and outcomes of patients with MBC treated at our institution. METHODS We searched clinical and pathology databases for patients with histologically confirmed MBC from 1999 to 2012. We estimated survival probabilities using the Kaplan-Meier method and evaluated prognostic factors using Cox regression. RESULTS Forty-five cases were identified, including chondroid (24%), spindled (20%), sarcomatoid (16%), squamous (11%), and mixed (29%) histologic subtypes. Median tumor size was 3 cm, with 86% grade III and 69% triple-negative for estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2. Most had negative lymph nodes, and two patients had metastases at diagnosis. Six patients received neoadjuvant therapy, with one pathologic complete response. All patients underwent surgery, 60% received adjuvant radiation, and 58% had adjuvant chemotherapy. Five-year recurrence-free survival was 64%; 5-year overall survival was 69%. Tumor size, history of breast cancer, and mixed histology were associated with inferior outcomes. CONCLUSIONS We report one of the largest single-institution series of patients with MBC. MBC is associated with a poor prognosis, despite low nodal involvement. Most patients in this series had high-grade, triple-negative tumors and were treated with optimal therapy.