Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Stochastic Implied Rates of Return, Portfolio Optimization, and the Equity Premium Puzzle

We show analytically under quite general conditions that time-varying implied rates of return based on analysts’ earnings forecasts are only a downward biased estimator for future expected one-period returns and therefore not suited for computing market risk premia in order to resolve the equity premium puzzle. The extent of this bias is substantial as verified by a bootstrap approach. We present an alternative estimation equation for future expected one-period returns based on current and past implied rates of return that is superior to simple estimators based on historical returns due to a lower variance of estimation results. The superiority of this new approach for portfolio selection purposes is verified numerically for our bootstrap environment and empirically for real capital market data.
Exploring Environmental Inequalities in Belgium: a New Theoretical and Empirical Way to Deal with Environmental Conflicts in Urban Areas?

Environmental Inequalities (EI) ‐ the unequal distribution of environmental goods and bads among space and population ‐ are a field of research at the crossroads of political science, environmental studies, and urban studies. Unlike US Environmental Justice movement, EI are not seen by actors or studied as a specific frame for action and collective mobilisation in Belgium in environmental matters. Environmental conflicts are however numerous in urban areas in Belgium where industrial activities and housing cohabit. In this paper, I analyse the unequal consequences of urban policy in Belgium in terms of environmental quality and access to amenities, more precisely, of uneven access to “quality of life” in a context of “anti-urban policy”. EI invite us to think about democracy in the cities (citizen participation, equal access to environmental quality of life) and about litigation and legal opportunities for individuals and groups in environmental conflicts. This paper examines alternative modes of public regulation in a “social and environmental justice in the city” perspective that could better integrate social and environmental issues. After a general presentation of the doctoral research, this paper explores (1) how grassroots movements or individuals can mobilise the law to denounce environmental conflicts and inequalities providing insights into an environmental inequalities perspective. It then studies (2) how current urban and environmental policy in Belgium can contribute to explaining these inequalities.
Characterization of New Members of the Group 3 Outer Membrane Protein Family of Brucella spp

ABSTRACT Impairment of the omp25 gene in Brucella spp. leads to attenuated strains and confers protection to the host. Omp25 and Omp31, whose functions remain unknown, were the first characterized members of group 3 outer membrane proteins (Omps) (25 to 34 kDa). Recently, genomic and proteomic approaches identified five new putative members of this family, some of which are produced in B. melitensis or B. abortus. In the present study, using protein microsequencing, we identified new members of group 3 Omps proteins produced in B. suis. Since several monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) against Omp25 cross-reacted with other members of group 3 Omps, we also performed Western immunoblotting to compare wild-type B. suis with mutants systematically having B. suis omp25-related genes knocked out. We demonstrate the production of three paralogs of Omp31 and/or Omp25 in B. suis, and the existence of a common site of signal peptide cleavage (AXAAD), which is very similar to that present in the five homologous Omps of Bartonella quintana. The seven group 3 Omps were classified in four-subgroups on the basis of percentage amino acid sequence identities: Omp25 alone, the Omp25b-Omp25c-Omp25d cluster, the Omp31/31b subgroup, and the less related Omp22 protein (also called Omp3b). Together with previous data, our results demonstrate that all new members of group 3 Omps are produced in B. suis or in other Brucella species and we propose a nomenclature that integrates all of these proteins to facilitate the understanding of future Brucella interspecies study results.
An Efficient Dynamic Mechanism

This paper constructs an efficient, budget-balanced, Bayesian incentive-compatible mechanism for a general dynamic environment with quasilinear payoffs in which agents observe private information and decisions are made over countably many periods. First, under the assumption of "private values" (other agents' private information does not directly affect an agent's payoffs), we construct an efficient, ex post incentive-compatible mechanism, which is not budget-balanced. Second, under the assumption of "independent types" (the distribution of each agent's private information is not directly affected by other agents' private information), we show how the budget can be balanced without compromising agents' incentives. Finally, we show that the mechanism can be made self-enforcing when agents are sufficiently patient and the induced stochastic process over types is an ergodic finite Markov chain. [PUBLICATION ABSTRACT]
Importance of psychiatric diagnosis in prediction of clinical drug effects.

THE DEVELOPMENT of effective Psychopharmacological agents confronted the psychiatric profession with the inadequacy of its diagnostic system for the provision of rational indications and contraindications for drug therapy. Within each standard diagnostic group there are wide variations in drug-induced behavioral reactions. Therefore, clinical treatment with psychotropic agents has been governed by rule of thumb modified by trial and error. This paper will emphasize the utility of psychiatric diagnosis when appropriately modified for prediction of treatment outcome. The issue of the prediction of drug effect is one of considerable practical and theoretical importance. It is difficult to arrive at generally valid conclusions predictive of drug effect from clinical empiricism because of spontaneous remissions, uncontrolled fluctuations of life circumstance, and the meager abilities of many psychiatric patients to describe objectively their level of cognitive, affective, and social functioning. Most systematic attempts to predict treatment
Dietary advice on prescription: experiences with a weight reduction programme

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES To describe overweight persons' experiences with weight reduction and participation in the dietary advice on prescription. BACKGROUND Approximately 20% of overweight individuals are able to successfully lose weight. Experiences from earlier weight reduction programmes indicate that those who succeed typically manage to avoid overeating to handle stress and have high motivation to lose weight. Those who fail have low self-control and engage in negative health behaviours such as eating when experiencing negative emotions and stress. DESIGN The study used a descriptive qualitative design and was conducted at a Primary Health Care Centre in south-west Sweden. METHODS The first nineteen study participants who completed the weight reduction programme in two years responded in writing to five open questions about their experiences with the programme. Data were analysed using inductive content analysis. RESULTS The participants appreciated the face-to-face meetings with the nurse because they felt seen and listened to during these sessions. They also felt their life situations and self-discipline had an impact on how well they were able to follow the programme. Dietary advice on prescription advice was considered to be helpful for achieving behavioural changes and losing weight. People who succeeded in sustainably losing weight described the importance of support from partners or close friends. CONCLUSIONS To achieve sustainable weight reduction, it is important to individualise the programme in order to address each person's life situation and the unique difficulties they may encounter. RELEVANCE TO CLINICAL PRACTICE Motivational interviewing appears to be a good technique for developing a successful relationship between the nurse and the patient. The dietary advice on prescription advice was perceived to be a good way to improve food habits and can easily be used at many Primary Health Care Centres. Patient's partners should also be offered the opportunity to participate in the programme.
Demand for University Student Housing: An Empirical Analysis

This paper provides insight to understanding the factors impacting studentis decision to live on-campus and the universityis concomitant decision to build on-campus housing. We examine the relationship between the percentage of students living on-campus and a number of factors, including school ranking, cost of off-campus living, and percentage of international and graduate students. The results indicate that there is a significant positive relationship between the percentage of students living on campus and the cost of off-campus living, school ranking, the percentage of international students, the type of school (i.e. public vs. private), the amount of on-campus security provided and the cost of tuition. The university has a choice between building a new dormitory, leasing, buying an existing building, or not providing other campus housing. We further find a relationship between the factors influencing the on-campus housing construction decision by a university and the factors influencing studentis decision to live on-campus.
DISCUSSION PAPERS

A comparative analysis of 15 developing countries shows that, during the 1990s, indirect taxes, tariffs, and exchange rates significantly discriminated against agriculture in only one country (Malawi), was largely neutral in five (Argentina, Brazil, Costa Rica, Indonesia, and Zimbabwe), provided a moderate subsidy to agriculture in four (Mexico, Tanzania, Venezuela, and Zambia), and strongly favored agriculture in five (Egypt, Korea, Morocco, Mozambique, and Tunisia). In contrast to earlier partial equilibrium results, our general equilibrium analysis indicates that exchange rate changes can lead to anything between strongly increasing and strongly decreasing relative agriculture/non-agriculture incentives, depending on relative trade shares and relative tradability of agricultural and non-agricultural commodities. Country-specific circumstances greatly affect the relative impact of trade policies on agriculture and the rest of the economy in a general equilibrium setting. Earlier partial equilibrium measures of policy bias could not adequately incorporate country heterogeneity and are therefore likely to have overstated the bias. In any case, from the empirical results with our sample of countries, we conclude that any incentive bias against agriculture in the 1980s had mostly disappeared by the 1990s. JEL classification: D58, O10, Q18
Protection of trafficked people in Italy: policies, limits and challenges

Purpose – The purpose of the article is to analyse the Italian anti-trafficking system by examining its effectiveness in the protection of trafficked people. Design/methodology/approach – The article examines the protection of trafficked people in Italy, focusing in particular on the implementation of Article 18 of the “Consolidated Act of Measures Governing Immigration and Norms on the Condition of Foreign Citizens” (Legislative Decree n. 286/1998), which provides victims with protection and a residence permit independent of their cooperation with the competent authorities in criminal proceedings against offenders. Findings – The article demonstrates that, though the Italian legal framework on trafficking is considered one of the most innovative and advanced, especially in the area of victim protection, a number of inadequacies in its implementation undermine the effectiveness of the measures aimed at protecting trafficked people. These concern the absence of a clear and appropriate victim identification.
DYNAMICS OF SEXUAL SELECTION IN DIPLOID POPULATIONS

We describe results for a diploid, two‐locus model for the evolution of a female mating preference directed at an attractive male trait that is subject to viability and/or fertility selection. Using computer simulation, we studied a large, random sample of parameter values, assuming additivity of alleles at the preference locus and partial dominance at the trait locus. Simulation results were classifiable into nine types of parameter sets, each differing in equilibria, evolutionary trajectories, and rates of evolution. For many parameters, evolutionary trajectories converged on curves within the allelic frequency plane and subsequently evolved along the curves toward fixation. Neutrally stable curves of equilibria did not occur in Fisherian models that assume only viability and sexual selection unless there is complete dominance at the trait locus. The Fisherian models also exhibited oscillation of allelic frequencies and unique polymorphic equilibria. “Sexy son” models in which attractive males had reduced fertility were much less likely to lead to increase in traits and preferences than were the Fisherian models. However, if less fertile males had increased viability, trait polymorphisms and fixation of rare “sexy” alleles occurred. In general, the behavior of the diploid model was much more complex than that of analogous haploid or polygenic models.
The developmental progression of age 14 behavioral disinhibition, early age of sexual initiation, and subsequent sexual risk-taking behavior.

BACKGROUND Research has demonstrated a consistent relationship between early sexual experience and subsequent sexual risk-taking behaviors. We hypothesized that this relationship is due to a general predisposition toward behavioral disinhibition (BD), and that relationships among BD, early sex, and subsequent risky sexual behavior may be influenced by common genetic influences for males and common environmental influences for females. METHODS A prospective sample of 1,512 same-sex adolescent twins (50.2% female) was used. Adolescent BD was measured by clinical symptom counts of conduct disorder, oppositional defiant disorder, and self-reported delinquent behavior (age 14). Age of sexual initiation was defined as first age of consensual oral or penetrative sex (mean age ~17). Adult risky sexual behavior was defined by sexual behaviors under the influence of drugs and alcohol and number of casual sexual partners in the past year (age 24). RESULTS Multivariate analyses showed evidence for substantial common genetic variance among age 14 BD, age at sexual initiation, and adult risky sexual behavior for males, but not females. There was no significant difference in the degree of common environmental influence on these variables for females compared to males. Notably, age of sexual initiation was not significantly correlated with age 24 risky sexual behavior for females. CONCLUSION The relationship between early sex and later risky sex can be better understood through a general liability toward BD, which is influenced primarily by genetic factors for males. The association between age 14 BD and age of sexual initiation was influenced through a combination of genetic and environmental factors for females; however, age of sexual initiation does not appear to be a salient predictor of adult women’s sexual risk-taking behavior. Findings suggest that prevention programs aimed at reducing sexual risk behavior might target youth exhibiting BD by age 14, particularly males. More research is needed on what predicts adult sexual risk-taking behavior for females.
Fuzzy Real Options for Risky Project Evaluation Using Least Squares Monte-Carlo Simulation

A numerical technique for evaluating risky projects with fuzzy real options is developed. Fuzzy real options are based on hybrid variables that represent the market risk of a project, which is derived from data, and the private risk, which is usually estimated by experts. These hybrid variables can be evaluated using an extension of Least Squares Monte-Carlo simulation that produces numerical evaluations of fuzzy real options based on the generation and backward induction of sample paths. A major advantage of this methodology is its ability to determine values regardless of whether or not an analytic solution exists. To illustrate, two fuzzy real options models are evaluated using the proposed algorithm: one, on brownfields, for comparison with analytic outputs for fuzzy real options; the other, on oil development, for comparison to the results of the Integrated Valuation Procedure (IVP), another algorithm to assess private risk. The results indicate that the generalized Least Squares Monte-Carlo simulation produces similar results to the analytic valuation of fuzzy real options, when this is possible. Moreover, the use of fuzzy real options can overcome the private risk problem without invoking IVP, which is preferable because expert linguistic estimates are easier to use in a fuzzy environment.
Are Capital Controls Effective in the 21st Century? The Recent Experience of Colombia

This paper assesses the effects of capital controls imposed in Colombia in 2007 on capital flows and exchange rate dynamics. The results suggest that the controls were successful in reducing external borrowing, but had no statistically significant impact on the volume of non-FDI flows as a whole. We find no evidence that restrictions to capital mobility moderated the appreciation of Colombia's currency, or increased the degree of independence of monetary policy. We also find that controls have significantly increased the volatility of the exchange rate. Additional research is needed to assess the effects of capital controls on financial stability.
Capacity Utilization in a Generalized Malmquist Index Including Environmental Factors: A Decomposition Analysis

Productivity measures ignoring environmental effects may give misleading information on total productivity growth. Further, business cycles in the form of capacity utilization may significantly influence productivity measures. We develop an overall Malmquist productivity index and decompose changing efficiency rates into a contribution from environmental factors, capital, and capacity utilization. Our new combined capacity utilization element contributes to the literature in that it also takes into account the restriction for producing negative externalities. Empirical applications illustrate that the choice of inputs influences the overall productivity measure and its decomposition into efficiency changes and technical changes, and the capacity utilization element. (JEL C14, O12)
Corporate Networks as Informal Governance Mechanisms: A Small Worlds Approach to Sweden

The results of this study strengthens the idea that there may not necessarily be one ideal corporate governance system, but that such systems develop historically according to path-dependent antecedents, with time finding their own balance. As such, the recent diffusion of Anglo-American corporate governance norms may prove upsetting to these systems, as their values may clash with already existing ones. The findings suggest that social norms upheld in a close network may complement formal investor protection, but perhaps not substitute for it. Thus, more research on the importance of informal governance mechanisms is called for in addition to the study of formal ones. A comparison of stock markets and investor protection for Denmark, Germany, Italy, Sweden, the UK, and US shows that the Swedish stock market is larger and more vital than would be expected from an evaluation of its formal investor protections. Subsequent analyses show that Scandinavian business standards are of the highest level, with the UK, the US, and Germany close behind, and Italy last. Comparison of owner networks using small world methodology show that whereas Germany has the most connected network, Sweden has a far tighter one than Denmark, Italy, the UK, and the US, being the least connected network of all. It is proposed that informal governance mechanisms such as social control, in the form of norms and corporate networks, may complement formal governance mechanisms, such as laws, in providing investor protection.
Relative Deprivation and Health: Which Reference Groups Matter?

We examine the extent to which self-reported health and psychosocial health are affected by relative economic status in China, for the first time examining the importance of reference groups not defined by geographic location or demographic characteristics. We propose a methodology to address potential bias from subjective reporting biases and control for unobserved community characteristics. Analyzing a nationally representative data set from China, our findings support the relative deprivation hypothesis and suggest that relatives and classmates are salient reference groups for urban residents and neighbors are important for rural residents.
The Effects of Incidence of Care Needs in Households on Employment, Subjective Health, and Life Satisfaction Among Middle‐Aged Family Members

type="main" xml:id="sjpe12085-abs-0001"> In this study, based on longitudinal data, we investigate whether Japanese middle-aged men and women become less likely to have a job and whether their sense of well-being decreases when they have a family member who needs care. We find a consistent negative impact of having a family member who needs care on employment, but no impact on subjective health and life satisfaction. Further, the differences-in-differences (DID) estimation, based on both unmatched and matched data, shows that the Long-Term Care Insurance (LTCI) introduced in 2000 did not mitigate the adverse impact on the probability of being employed.
An Empirical Test of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory on Australian Stock Returns 1974‐85

This paper examines empirically, issues concerning the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT). Firstly, in the spirit of Chamberlain and Rothschild [1983], the existence of an approximate factor structure is explored. Secondly, following Beggs [1986] and employing a principal components approach, a test of arbitrage pricing and the importance of the error of approximation, is conducted. Finally, using a non nested framework, the APT and CAPM are tested against each other. The results show mixed support for the APT having up to 3 priced factors.