Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Triple, Quadruple, and Higher-Order Helices: Historical Phenomena and (Neo-)Evolutionary Models

Carayannis and Campbell (2009; 2010) have argued for using quadruple and quintuple helices as models encompassing and generalizing triple-helix dynamics. In the meantime, quadruple and quintuple helices have been adopted by the European Committee for the Regions and the European Commission as metaphors for further strategy development such as in EU-programs in Smart Specialization, Plan S, Open Innovation 2.0, etc. Here we argue that the transition from a double helix to a triple helix can change the dynamic from a trajectory to a regime. However, next-order transitions (e.g., to quadruple, quintuple, or n-tuple helices) can be decomposed and recombined into interacting Triple Helices. For example, in the case of four helices A, B, C, and D, one can distinguish ABC, ABD, ACD, and BCD; each triplet can generate synergy. The triple-helix synergy indicator can thus be elaborated for more than three dimensions. However, whether innovation systems are national, regional, sectorial, triple-helix, quadruple-helix, etc., can inform policies with evidence if one proceeds to measurement. A variety of perspectives can be used to interpret the data. Software for testing perspectives will be introduced.
A System of Time-Varying Models for Predictive Regressions

This paper proposes a system of semiparametric time-varying models for predictive regressions, where a locally stationary process in the form of time-varying autoregression is introduced to model varying-persistent predictors, and parameter instability and embedded endogeneity have also been taken into account simultaneously. We employ a semiparametric profile likelihood approach to<br>estimate both constant parameters and time-varying functional coefficients, and we further establish the asymptotic theory of the estimators in the system. Monte Carlo simulations show that the proposed estimation method works very well in finite samples. Empirically, we find that the popular predictors considered in the literature are well approximated by a time-varying first-order autoregressive process, those predictors generally contain significant and time-varying predictive content of future equity premium, and taking embedded endogeneity into account helps to identify the existence of return predictability.
Capital Inflows and Property Prices: Ethnicity, Education, and Spillovers

China has experienced significant capital flight over the last two decades. Despite anecdotal evidence that some of this capital has been invested in foreign residential markets, not much is known from academic research about its destination and impact. We examine the effects of capital inflows from China on residential property prices and the real economy in the U.S. and global metropolitan areas. We show that inflows had significant effects on residential property markets and employment in regions that (a) have strong ethnic ties to China and (b) are destinations of Chinese students. We document spillover effects to other regions.
From ‘Table 29’ to the Actuarial Balance Sheet: Is It Really That Big a Leap?

EU regulations since 2017 have required all Member States to disclose their accrued-to-date pension liabilities (ADL) using a standard actuarial cost method and some common assumptions. This applies to both Social Security (SS) schemes and unfunded defined benefit (DB) schemes covering civil servants. These pension liabilities have to be disclosed in a supplementary table referred to as Table 29. An actuarial balance sheet (ABS) can be defined as a financial statement that lists a pension system's obligations to contributors and pensioners at a particular date, together with the amounts of the assets (financial and in particular those from contributions) that underwrite those commitments. The ABS can be used to assess the solvency of SS schemes, whereas Table 29 cannot. This paper develops a methodology to (easily) transform Table 29 into an ABS and compile its associated income statement (IS). To enable policymakers to better understand how the model would function, the paper also contains a country case study based on data from the most recently published Table 29 for Spain. According to our best estimate assumptions, it can be said that the Spanish pension system is partially insolvent because only part of the pension entitlements is backed up by assets, and that the system's sustainability has markedly deteriorated over the period 2015-2018.
Do Accounting Information and Market Environment Matter for Cross-Asset Predictability?

This paper examines whether the differences in accounting information between stocks affect cross-asset return predictability. We use a comprehensive set of accounting variables and find that abnormal accruals, earnings smoothness, book-to-market, firm age, leverage, abnormal capital investment, and investment growth, among others, explain the variation in return predictability across pairing stocks. Moreover, our results show that cross-asset predictability varies over time and is associated with funding liquidity and market sentiment. A simple trading strategy based on our findings yields a higher mean return, lower standard deviation, and higher Sharpe ratio compared to the buy-and-hold strategy. <br>
How Ethical Leadership Limits Organizational Deviance, and Promotes Organizational Citizenship Behavior: A Mediatory Role of Affective Commitment Complemented by Ethical Conviction and Reputation for Performance.

Despite numerous researches on ethical leadership, literature still lacks the researches on boundary conditions that limit its effectiveness. Thus, the present study examines the relationship between ethical leadership (EL) and organizational deviance via first-order mediation of affective commitment to the organization, as a reflection of the quality of the employee–organization relationship. Using Social learning &amp; Exchange theories and group engagement models, we also examined the EL effect on Organizational Citizenship Behavior (OCB) through organizational deviance as a second-order mediator. We also propose that this relationship is conditional on the supervisor’s reputation for performance (i.e., the moral standards are coupled with work effectiveness), and Perceived Leader Ethical Conviction. For the, we modified Neves and Story (2015) model to further extend to OCB while adding a moderator. OCB was measured in both Individual &amp; organizational context. Empirical validity was established by conducting a survey using a close-ended questionnaire. Data was collected from 286 corporate employees from different sectors, working in Pakistan, and analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis and structured equation modeling. The results suggested that EL seems to exert a positive impact on Affective commitment, this would in turn have a negative effect on organizational deviance. Affective commitment also seems to have a positive effect on both OCB of individuals and organizations. Understandably, organizational deviance seems to be negatively affecting both OCBs. We also witnessed a positive complementary effect of Reputation for Performance in EL and affective commitment nexus. Hence, the positive relationship between ethical leadership and affective commitment is more pronounced when leaders have a high reputation for performance. Hence, results imply that organizations have to pay attention to the moral values and standards of supervisors and leaders, as they are significant role models due to their ability to reward or punish employees.
Disclosure Quality and Corporate Governance in a Context of Minority Expropriation

In this paper we examine a combined set of corporate governance features that influence disclosure quality in a context of minority expropriation due to ownership concentration. This context allows studying a new agency conflict: controlling versus minority shareholders while most of previous studies focus on the conflict between managers and shareholders. We analyse a sample of 86 French firms over the 2004 period. In a market that is characterised by high ownership concentration and poor investor protection, we find a negative association between disclosure quality and family control, double voting shares, and both ownership and control concentration. The results obtained also suggest a positive relationship between disclosure quality and the presence of executive stock options plans, and with the proportion of independent directors in the board as well. These findings shed the light on corporate governance features that enhance incentives for good disclosure under high ownership concentration.
The Effect of Perceived Organizational Support on employees' Ethical Behavior and Intention to leave in Pakistan: The Role of Moral Ownership and Organizational Commitment complemented by Motivation

Organizations tend to compete and put high productivity demands on their employees. Arguably, this could make employees feel insecure about their job, prompting them to either adopt any means to protect their jobs or join someone else. Implicitly, the way organizations respond to the specific socio-emotional needs of employees has an important role in defining employee behavior. Toward this, we set out to examine the extent to which perceived organizational support facilitates employee ethical behavior and their intention to leave. Building upon Malakkaran &amp; Dyaram (2019) model explaining the linkage between Perceived Organizational Support (POS), and Ethical Behavior, we modified it by explaining how POS also impact Intention to leave. We hypothesize that POS enables moral ownership and this in turn makes employees behave ethically, it also increases organizational commitment and makes reduces the intention to leave. Here Motivation will complement the effect of POS on organizational commitment. Empirical validity was established by conducting a survey using a close-ended questionnaire. Data was collected from 257 employees working in different organizations and analyzed using confirmatory factor analysis and structured equation modeling. The results suggested that Perceived Organizational Support has a positive and significant effect on Organizational Commitment (OC), and Intention to leave (IL), OC also positively affects IL, hence OC seems to mediate POS IL relationship. POS also seems to affect moral ownership but this, in turn, doesn’t seem to impact ethicality. Moreover, motivation seems to affect organizational commitment OC but doesn’t seem to moderate POS’s effect on OC. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed.
Generating Excess Returns Through Global Industry Rotation

Numerous studies have shown that international diversification across global equity markets can lead to improved performance on a risk adjusted basis when compared to investing in domestic equity markets. Early studies provided empirical evidence that country and industry effects were important factors in explaining total returns. These studies generally concluded country factors dominate industry factors. Recent studies however provide evidence this view is changing in that industry effects are at least as important as country effects. With the increasing importance of industry effects it makes sense to investigate what investment strategies could lead to improved investment performance in relation to global equity markets. We examine a number of commonly used investment strategies in relation to industry rotation. Our results indicate that each of the strategies can earn significant positive excess returns. Yet these strategies appear to act quite differently. Each of the strategies breaks down at some point in time, but by combining the strategies into a portfolio of strategies we are able to generate more consistent performance with improved levels of significance.
Determinants of the Interest Rate Premium on Contingent Convertible Bonds (CoCos)

Ruling out default prior to conversion of high-trigger (going-concern) CoCos, this paper concentrates on estimating the conversion risk premium on CoCos. It does so by estimating the cost of hedging that risk with a contingent put option, exercisable only in the event of conversion, whose strike price is set at the conversion price per share (CPS). In this situation, the level of the common equity tier-1 (CET1) capital ratio at the time that the CoCos are issued plays a central role: it determines the probability of conversion during the term of the CoCos and the level of the CPS, relative to the market price per share (MPS) at the time of CoCos issuance, that must be set to stabilize the expected replacement rate, here at 80%. This replacement rate implies that CoCos holders can expect to lose 20% of the face value of CoCos in the event of conversion and are moved to exercise debt discipline. At the same time, existing shareholders derive sufficient comfort from conversion, for the losses leading up to it, not to oppose the issuance of CoCos in the first place. If the issuing companies have initial Basel III- based capital ratios that are at least 3 percentage points above the 7% going-concern trigger, covering the conversion risk should cost only a third as much as the average premium now required on equity into which, upon conversion, the CoCos would turn. By issuing such CoCos, banks can thus equip themselves with a form of contingent equity line. That line is activated automatically when triggered by adversity to rebuild their capital at a bargain without causing dilution for existing shareholders.
Foreign Currency Forecasting: What Can Stock and Bond Markets Tell Us?

We construct out-of-sample (OOS) forecasts using various model specifications of equity and bond returns, and assess their statistical accuracy against the random walk (RW) model. We test their economic value by designing a trading strategy inspired by the return chasing hypothesis, based on the sign of the predicted return from our models. Using a sample of 28 currency markets, our results include (i) our OOS forecasts show that all the slope estimates of our predictive regressions are significant, indicating that the RW is mis-specified; (ii) statistical accuracy criteria suggest that our empirical models outperform the RW; and (iii) our trading strategies, that use stock and bond returns, generate significant Sharpe ratios. These returns, however, are uncorrelated with the traditional risk factors and other popular determinants of currency returns.
Information Complementarities and the Dynamics of Transparency Shock Spillovers

We show that information complementarities play an important role in the spillover of transparency shocks. We exploit the revelation of financial misconduct by S&P 500 firms, and in a “Stacked Difference‐in‐Differences” design, find that the implied cost of capital increases for “close” industry peers of the fraudulent firms relative to “distant” industry peers. The spillover effect is particularly strong when the close peers and the fraudulent firm share common analyst coverage and common institutional ownership, which have been shown to be powerful proxies for fundamental linkages and information complementarities. We provide evidence that increase in the cost of capital of peer firms is due, at least in part, to “beta shocks” (Lambert et al. [2007], Leuz and Schrand [2009]). Disclosure by close peers – especially those with co‐coverage and co‐ownership links – also increases following fraud revelation. While disclosure remains high in the following years, the cost of equity starts to decrease.This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved
Comparative Statics and Centrality Measures in Oligopolies with Interdependent Preferences

Considering the Cournot oligopoly with interdependent preferences proposed in [5], we analyze the effects of a change in the network of social interactions. Reconsidering some of the main centrality measures proposed in the literature, we show how intercentrality, Bonacich and Friedkin-Jensen centrality measures can be related in a network described by a general matrix of interaction. This allows showing under what conditions a firm can benefit, in terms of equilibrium performance, from a change in the weight of interaction of a firm with respect to one of its competitors can benefit. Extending the approach to the study of a uniform change in the behavior of all the firms, we show that it is collectively beneficial only if the structure of social interaction is characterized by a sufficient degree of homogeneity in terms of weight distributions.
Comparing Non-GAAP Earnings and ASC 280’s Segment Earnings

We compare non-GAAP earnings and segment earnings determined by ASC 280’s Management Approach, both of which afford managers flexibility in defining performance. This comparison is relevant because (1) standard setters are considering expanding the use of internally viewed information in external reporting, and (2) segment earnings’ flexibility makes it more suitable than GAAP net income for assessing the usefulness of non-GAAP earnings. Using a sample of firms’ non-GAAP earnings and segment earnings from 2003-2018, we examine the items included in and excluded from these measures and assess whether, and why, they are differentially useful for investors. Both earnings measures are more decision-useful than GAAP net income; however, nonGAAP earnings is more useful than segment earnings. Additional analyses, including an experiment, indicate that the internal purpose of the Management Approach yields earnings measures focused on controllability, rather than persistence, which impairs the usefulness of segment earnings for investors.
Busy Analysts and Firm Monitoring

Consistent with the view that “busy” analysts face time and effort constraints in monitoring firms, we find that higher busyness lowers firm valuation. The underlying mechanisms include lower operating performance, higher cost of capital, greater earnings management, excessive CEO compensation, and lower institutional ownership. These effects are less pronounced for larger firms and when analysts have greater experience covering the firm/industry. Our inferences are supported by a novel experimental design based on shocks to analyst busyness from broker mergers. These results suggest that analyst monitoring relies not only on the level of analyst coverage, but also on its quality.
The Determinant Factors of Bank Profitability in Indonesia

Indonesian financial system is a bank based, where the banking system carries a vital role in the economy. That makes the profitability and the stability of the banking industry is essential to preserve economic growth. Therefore, it is critical to understand the determinant factors of bank profitability. The purpose of this study is to analyse the internal bank, external bank, as well as industry-specific determinant on bank profitability, that is measured using Return on Asset (ROA) and Return on Equity (ROE). The study will use a balanced panel data from 93 banks over the period 2015-2019 and utilize Fixed Effect-Generalised Least Square model to examine the relationship. <br><br>This study finds that different factors affect banks’ ROA and ROE. It found that capital strength has a significant and positive correlation with ROA, but it does not have a significant correlation with ROE. Cost efficiency, as expected, has a substantial and negative correlation with both ROA and ROE. As for GDP growth, it has a significant and negative correlation with ROA, but it does not have a significant correlation with ROE. That likely caused by the increasing competition from the entry of foreign banks along with economic development. Finally, inflation has a significant and positive correlation with both ROA and ROE. Surprisingly, bank size and bank ownership do not have substantial correlation either with ROA or ROE. These results suggest that banks in Indonesia can enhance their profitability by increasing capital strength and improve cost efficiency.
Dehomogenizing Robbins and Mises on Methodology

Lionel Robbins’s 'An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science' is frequently cited as one of the most influential works on economic methodology of the twentieth century. Yet, paradoxically, Robbins’s Essay is also generally acknowledged to have been significantly influenced by the controversial and widely rejected methodological views of Ludwig von Mises. This article examines a number of subtle but significant areas in which Robbins’s Essay can be seen to diverge from Mises’s methodological writings, in order to not only clarify both men’s views, but also to gain some insight into the causes behind the widely divergent extent to which their works have been adopted into the canon of economic orthodoxy.
Uncovering Illegal and Underground Economies: The Case of Mafia Extortion Racketeering

This paper proposes a new approach for quantifying the economic cost of hidden economies. I specifically apply the method to the case of mafia racketeering in Northern Italy, and in so doing, provide the first explicit estimate of the economic cost of mafia spread in this area. I show both theoretically and empirically that acts of extortion imposed on certain firms are linked to resource mis-allocation. I quantify the share of output that the mafia extorts from firms, which ranges between 0.5 and 5 percent of firm-level output for the taxed firms. I then consider what these estimates imply and find that between 2000 and 2012, the Northern Italian economy suffered an aggregate loss of approximately 2.5 billion Euros. Quite remarkably, only one-fourth of this cost consists of the aggregate transfer to the mafia. The remaining three-fourths corresponds to the contraction of production due to mis-allocation.
The Gendered Societal Equilibrium: In Search for an Economic Rationale

Several occupations are male-dominated while others are women-dominated, and gender-based segregation shows great resistance to change. Researchers attribute it to secular stereotypes, socialization practices and gender-constructed roles. This paper attempts to establish an economic rationale behind these theories. In this paper, women have greater difficulty to conciliate the labor market with the household and for that reason have a higher cost of effort. We found that when the marginal cost of effort is increasing with effort, production tends to be organized in more competitive ways in which men are more competitive. In those cases, the economic forces push men towards these more competitive occupations, which are also the ones with higher returns. On the other hand, when the marginal cost of effort is decreasing with effort, production is organized in less competitive ways and women tend to provide higher effort than men. In those cases, the economic forces push women towards these less competitive occupations, which are also the ones with lower returns. These findings may help researchers and decision-makers better understand the economic mechanisms behind men and women occupational choices, e.g., in STEM, and designing policies that can allow men and women to have the same labor market opportunities.