Mathematical modelling of German electricity prices

In this dissertation we apply financial mathematical modelling to electricity markets. Electricity is different from any other underlying of financial contracts: it is not storable. This means that electrical energy in one time point cannot be transferred to another. As a consequence, power contracts with disjoint delivery time spans basically have a different underlying. The main idea throughout this thesis is exactly this two-dimensionality of time: every electricity contract is not only characterized by its trading time but also by its delivery time. The basis of this dissertation are four scientific papers corresponding to the Chapters 3 to 6, two of which have already been published in peer-reviewed journals. Throughout this thesis two model classes play a significant role: factor models and structural models. All ideas are applied to or supported by these two model classes. All empirical studies in this dissertation are conducted on electricity price data from the German market and Chapter 4 in particular studies an intraday derivative unique to the German market. Therefore, electricity market design is introduced by the example of Germany in Chapter 1. Subsequently, Chapter 2 introduces the general mathematical theory necessary for modelling electricity prices, such as Levy processes and the Esscher transform. This chapter is the mathematical basis of the Chapters 3 to 6. Chapter 3 studies factor models applied to the German day-ahead spot prices. We introduce a qualitative measure for seasonality functions based on three requirements. Furthermore, we introduce a relation of factor models to ARMA processes, which induces a new method to estimate the mean reversion speed. Chapter 4 conducts a theoretical and empirical study of a pricing method for a new electricity derivative: the German intraday cap and floor futures. We introduce the general theory of derivative pricing and propose a method based on the Hull-White model of interest rate modelling, which is a one-factor model. We include week futures prices to generate a price forward curve (PFC), which is then used instead of a fixed deterministic seasonality function. The idea that we can combine all market prices, and in particular futures prices, to improve the model quality also plays the major role in Chapter 5 and Chapter 6. In Chapter 5 we develop a Heath-Jarrow-Morton (HJM) framework that models intraday, day-ahead, and futures prices. This approach is based on two stochastic processes motivated by economic interpretations and separates the stochastic dynamics in trading and delivery time. Furthermore, this framework allows for the use of classical day-ahead spot price models such as the ones of Schwartz and Smith (2000), Lucia and Schwartz (2002) and includes many model classes such as structural models and factor models. Chapter 6 unifies the classical theory of storage and the concept of a risk premium through the introduction of an unobservable intrinsic electricity price. Since all tradable electricity contracts are derivatives of this actual intrinsic price, their prices should all be derived as conditional expectation under the risk-neutral measure. Through the intrinsic electricity price we develop a framework, which also includes many existing modelling approaches, such as the HJM framework of Chapter 5.