Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty in Predicting Output Growth in Emerging Markets: A Mixed-Frequency Granger Causality Approach

ABSTRACT We employ time series data to empirically determine the causal relationship between economic policy uncertainty and the GDP growth rates of seven emerging market economies while controlling for the effect of oil price, interest rates, and the CPI. Due to differences in sampling frequencies between the GDP series and other variables, a multi-horizon mixed frequency VAR model is specified. This model fully exploits the recently developed mixed frequency Granger causality test in order to circumvent the distorting effects of temporal aggregation. The empirical results show a strong statistical evidence for causality flowing from EPU to GDP in Brazil, Chile, and India in the mixed frequency case while weak statistical evidence is found for Colombia, Mexico, and Russia. For comparative analysis, the low-frequency Granger causality test is also employed and strong statistical evidence of causality flowing from EPU to GDP in Brazil, Chile, India, Mexico is uncovered. Analyzing the causal patterns uncovered in both specifications show that the low-frequency Granger causality results are less intuitively appealing than those that are obtained from the mixed frequency Granger causality test specifications. The results have empirical as well as policy implications which are discussed.
Vosaroxin: innovative anticancer quinolone for the treatment of acute myelogenous leukemia

ABSTRACT Introduction: A first-in-class anticancer quinolone derivative with topoisomerase II activity, mechanistically, vosaroxin is similar to the anthracycline class. However, vosaroxin displays advantageous pharmacokinetic properties such as minimal metabolism, a lack of free radical production, is not a substrate for the P glycoprotein efflux pump, and can exert its antineoplastic activity independently of P53 function. Vosaroxin has shown encouraging results when combined with cytarabine in older patients with relapsed or refractory acute myeloid leukemia (AML) while balancing early toxicity and mortality, making it a compelling novel therapy for acute myelogenous leukemia. Areas covered: Herein, we review the clinical data from published and internationally presented clinical trials utilizing vosaroxin for AML in the elderly, and relapsed and refractory population. Pivotal trials reviewed include the multicenter, phase II, REVEAL-1 study of single-agent vosaroxin in untreated elderly patients and the multicenter, phase III, VALOR study of vosaroxin in combination with intermediate dose cytarabine for patients with relapsed or refractory AML. Expert opinion: Outcomes for older adults with AML, and for patients with relapsed or refractory disease are persistently poor. Improvement in outcomes in the elderly population highlight the utility of this agent in a difficult to treat, often more resistant and intolerant to therapy, group of patients. The expected and observed lack of cardiotoxicity makes this drug particularly suitable for the older population, especially those that may have received prior anthracycline based therapy.
The equity premium in China

ABSTRACT The equity premium is a key indicator in capital investment decisions. However, few studies estimate the equity premium for the Chinese stock market. To shed more light on the subject, we use dividend and consumption growth models to estimate the expected equity premium in China from 2005 to 2017. Our evidence shows that the geometric mean of the expected yearly equity premium from the consumption growth model, 9.69 percent, is similar to that of the realized yearly equity premium from stock returns, 8.11 percent. The corresponding values are 0.74–0.68 percent for monthly data, and 2.49–2.28 percent for quarterly data. In contrast, the estimate of the expected equity premium from the dividend growth model is far higher than the realized equity premium. However, both the dividend and consumption growth models fail to explain the high fluctuations of the realized equity premium.
Manufacturing discontent: The rise to power of anti-TTIP groups

Old beliefs, new symbols, new faces. In 2013, a small group of German green and leftwing activists, professional campaign NGOs and well-established protectionist organisations set up deceptive communication campaigns against TTIP, the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership between the European Union and the United States. Germany’s anti-TTIP NGOs explicitly aimed to take German-centred protests to other European countries. Their reasoning is contradictory and logically inconsistent. Their messages are targeted to serve common sense protectionist demands of generally ill-informed citizens and politicians. Thereby, anti-TTIP communication is based on metaphoric messages and far-fetched myths to effectively evoke citizens’ emotions. Together, these groups dominated over 90 percent of online media reporting on TTIP in Germany. Anti-TTIP protest groups in Germany are not only inventive; they are also resourceful. Based on generous public funding and opaque private donations, green and left-wing political parties, political foundations, clerical and environmental groups, and well-established anti-globalisation organisations maintain influential campaign networks. Protest groups’ activities are coordinated by a number of former and current green and left-wing politicians and political parties that search for anti-establishment political profiles. As Wallon blockage mentality regarding CETA, the trade and investment agreement between the European Union and Canada, demonstrates, Germany’s anti-TTIP groups’ attempts to undermine EU trade policy bear the risk of coming to fruition in other Eurpean countries. And they carry the real possibility of depriving EU Member States from new economic opportunities and economic convergence. For Germany, we analyse a unique and comprehensive dataset of 1,508 publicly held “TTIP information” events to study the “local” (offline) politics of TTIP. We find that hostile anti-TTIP sentiment in Germany has not at all developed bottom-up. Leading protest campaign organisations literally manufactured discontent about TTIP. Widespread aversion to TTIP in Germany is the result of an orchestrated, top-down campaign initiative launched by a small number of long-established, well-connected and, thus, highly influential politicians of Germany’s Green and left-wing political parties and associated NGO campaign managers masquerading and operating under the guise of pro-democracy, pro-environment and pro-Christian civil society. Nimble institutional structures, common ideological mind-sets and a strong affinity to modern online media allowed Germany’s anti-TTIP NGOs to turbo-charge online and on-the-ground protest activities in other European countries. At EU level, the European Commission itself provided enourmous financial funding to a great number of declared anti-TTIP campaign NGOs – in full knowledge about these organisations’ ideologically driven, all too often deceptive, and therefore destructive, ways of political campaigning.
Real Effects of Markets on Politics: Evidence from U.S. Presidential Elections

Despite the economic importance of the US stock market, there is strikingly little evidence of its impact on elections. Using county-level variation in stock market participation, we document the impact of market returns on election outcomes. High-participation counties are more likely to vote for the incumbent party when the market has performed well relative to low-participation counties. Our findings provide evidence of a novel channel through which stock market fluctuations could be transmitted into the real economy. (JEL D72, G12, G35, G41, G51)
Users’ recommendation intentions for shared bike services: A social exchange theory perspective

Abstract Bike sharing has recently become very popular in China and is beginning to catch on in the USA. This has led to fierce competition in China and includes apps that enable bike sharing. Users’ recommendations have therefore become important as they can help providers attract more customers. However, little research has addressed recommendation intentions among bike-sharing consumers. Based on social exchange theory, this study examines factors affecting Chinese bike-sharing users’ recommendation intentions. Structural equation modeling is used, and data collected from 239 bike-sharing customers provided the following. First, both intrinsic benefits (enjoyment in helping others) and extrinsic benefits (economic incentives) have positive effects on recommendation intentions. Furthermore, the effect of enjoyment in helping others is larger than the effect of economic incentives. Perceived execution cost have a negative effects on users’ recommendation intentions. Secondly, tie strength can serve in a negative moderating role between economic incentives and recommendation intentions and as a positive moderator between perceived execution costs and bike-sharing app users’ recommendation intentions. Finally, the interaction effect between execution costs and economic incentives for bike sharing users’ recommendation intentions was examined and the mediating role of tie strength between costs/benefits and recommendation intentions were also evaluated.
Tax Increment Financing in Chicago: The Perplexing Relationship Between Blight, Race, and Property Values

Cities use tax increment financing (TIF) to trigger growth in blighted communities. Critics argue that Chicago’s broad conceptualization of “blight” facilitates the designation of TIF districts that do not resemble conventional notions of blight, bolstering their natural ability to generate capital, thereby exacerbating the gap between wealthy and poor minority spaces. This study examines Chicago’s TIF districts to determine whether blight levels and percentage of non-White residents interact to reduce the effectiveness of TIFs measured as the change in the equalized assessed valuation (EAV) of properties. Using composite indices to measure physical and economic blight, the results of a quantile regression analysis indicate that economically blighted TIFs with predominantly non-White populations outperform other districts. These findings run counter to expectations given that TIFs report high rates of growth in property values, yet they remain substantially blighted. This suggests a need to reconsider change in equalized assessed valuation as the measure of TIF effectiveness given that the “growth” in TIFs does not seem to reflect a higher quality of life for residents.
500 Years of Housing Rents, Quality and Affordability

How do housing rents, quality and affordability evolve when cities grow over time? This paper studies urban housing markets for half a millennium (1500–2017) for Amsterdam, Antwerp, Bruges, Brussels, Ghent, London, and Paris. Based on a dataset of 436,000 rent observations, we build new indices of housing rents, quality and inequality, and relate these to changes in wages and population. Long-term growth in real rent prices has been limited. Before 1900, markets were unregulated and rent prices and wages rose in tandem when cities grew, while housing quality and inequality increased. After 1900, housing affordability started improving substantially, and we show that short-term improvements in this period were partially attributable to rent controls. Most of the surge in housing expenditure that did occur over time is due to increasing housing quality rather than rising rent.
Air Pollution and Analyst Information Production

Recent studies investigate the impact of air pollution on labor productivity. We extend this literature by showing that air pollution negatively affects equity analyst information production. Analysts exposed to air pollution are less likely to issue timely forecasts or improve their forecast accuracy. Investigating the underlying mechanism, we find that analysts exposed to air pollution are less likely to provide bold (especially, negatively bold) forecasts. We also find evidence that market pricing is less sensitive to forecast revisions issued by analysts exposed to air pollution. Our results are robust to controlling for firm/analyst and time fixed effects, as well as additional specifications employing difference-in-differences designs and placebo tests.
Filling a Representation Gap? How Populist and Mainstream Parties Address Muslim Immigration and the Role of Islam

ABSTRACT This paper asks whether Germany’s main right-wing Populist Party, the AfD, filled a representation gap on the issue of Muslim immigration and integration and the role of Islam. We shed light on this question by analysing more than 575 manifestos from all 116 elections on the state and federal level between 1990 and 2017. A quantitative text analysis reveals that all parties increased their attention towards the topic in the recent years, while the AfD is most attentive. A qualitative framing analysis shows that the AfD did not bring any new ideas, problems or solutions to the debate but stands out from mainstream parties by drawing an exclusively negative picture of Muslims and Islam clearly exaggerating the differentiated – yet still critical – views represented by CDU and CSU. The results suggest a minor representation gap in the East of Germany, potentially contributing to the AfD’s success.
The Welfare Impact of Household Loans: An Analysis for Ghana

In recent times, household loans, which is a tool for development for most households have gained much importance especially in developing countries. This can be attributed to the fact that they are likely to have a significant impact on the welfare of the households. This study provides evidence on the impact of household loans on the welfare of households in Ghana. The study also examines the factors that influence the probability that households will have access to loans. Data for the empirical analysis are obtained from the sixth round of the Ghana Living Standards Survey (GLSS6). The study employs the Heckman probit, a probit model with sample selection, to determine the factors that influence the probability that households will be granted loans. The analysis reveals that 90.6% of the total household heads who applied for loans were granted and determinants such as marital status (previously in a union) and educational level (tertiary level) of the household head influence the probability that loans will be granted to households. The propensity score matching (PSM) technique is used to analyse the impact of household loans on household welfare. The analysis shows that household loans have a positive and significant impact on household welfare.
Conceptualising digital transformation in SMEs: an ecosystemic perspective

Purpose Supported by a service ecosystem that is increasingly immersed into digital transformation, small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have access to turnkey information technology (IT) applications, which may come free of charge but not free of concerns. The purpose of this paper is to explore a group conceptualisation and associated perceptions of IT issues within an ecosystem that includes three subgroup profiles: entrepreneurs, IT professionals and socioeconomic support professionals. Design/methodology/approach Using group concept mapping, a bottom-up and participatory mixed methods-based approach, a concept map was estimated, based on a list of items, to define seven clusters pertaining to issues and challenges of adoption and use of turnkey IT applications in SMEs of less than 20 employees. Perceptions measures of relative importance and feasibility were obtained by subgroup profiles. Findings The relative importance and relative feasibility measures for the seven clusters indicate significant statistical differences in ratings among the subgroup profiles. A discussion on the importance of relational capital in addressing challenges of digital transformation in SMEs is developed. Originality/value Results highlight signifiant differences concerning key dimensions in the adoption and use of IT from the perspective of three subgroup profiles of actors within the ecosystem. First, the results stress the need to develop a shared understanding of IT challenges. Second, they suggest policymakers could use these conceptual representations to further develop and strengthen the IT-related support agenda for SMEs, especially the smaller ones (e.g. training programs, business support and coaching initiatives, etc.).
Transformative transition coaching: a framework to facilitate transformative learning during career transitions

Abstract Corporate leaders are frequently promoted into senior positions without the requisite capabilities to be successful in such career transitions. A significant proportion fails with substantial negative personal and organisational implications. Incumbents need to adapt through a flexible learning process that transcends superficial change. Transformative learning alters deeply held perspectives and world views and has long-term efficacy, while transition coaching, used sporadically at present, is a personalised learning process. This research created a novel synergy between transformative learning theory and transition coaching using a combination of grounded theory principles (16 participants) and canonical action research (6 participants). The findings yielded two results: the transformative transition coaching framework that appears to facilitates deep, lasting changes in an individual’s perspectives and world views during senior career transitions; and a novel coaching state transition notation that could help coaches to graphically track coachees’ transition progress. By undergoing transformative learning through coaching, transitioning leaders may increase their chances of success in their current and future roles.
Greening the Gulag: Austerity, neoliberalism, and the making of the “green prisoner”

Over the past 30 years the U.S. prison population has exploded. With the impact of climate change already here, we are also seeing new critiques of mass incarceration emerge, namely their environmental impact. In response to these burgeoning critiques as well as calls to action by the Justice Department to implement more sustainable and cost-effective strategies in prisons, the United States is experiencing a surge in prison sustainability programs throughout the country. Although sustainability is an important challenge facing the world, this paper argues that while “greening” programs seem like attempts to reform current methods of imprisonment, sustainability programming is an extension of the neoliberalization of incarceration in the United States. By emphasizing cost cutting while individualizing rehabilitation, prisons mobilize sustainability programming to produce “green prisoners” who are willing to take responsibility for their rehabilitation and diminish their economically burdensome behaviors (i.e. excessive wastefulness). Using semi-structure journals and interviews at three Oregon prisons, this paper investigates these ideas through the lens of the Sustainability in Prisons Project.
Analysis of peripheral blood lymphocytes subgroup in irritable bowel syndrome

Objective To determine the peripheral blood CD + 3, CD + 4, CD + 8 lymphocytes in patients with irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Methods Thirty patients with IBS and with diarrhea symptom were selected and identified by Rome Ⅱ diagnostic criteria and 30 healthy subjects were served as controls. The peripheral blood lymphocytes count and T lymphocytes subgroups CD + 3, CD + 4, CD + 8 were analyzed by AC 920 hemocyte analysis meter, immunofluorescence, and Simul SET auto software, respectively. Results The mean blood lymphocytes count was (2.0±0.5)×10 9/L in IBS group and (2.2±0.6)×10 9/L in control group. No significant difference was found between the two groups ( P 0.05). The blood CD + 8 in IBS group was higher than that in control group ( P 0.05), but blood CD 4 in IBS group was lower than that in control group. CD + 4/CD + 8 ratio was decreased ( P 0.05), while there was no difference in blood CD + 3 between the IBS patients and the controls ( P 0.05). Conclusions The peripheral blood lymphocytes count in IBS was not significantly different from the controls, the number of CD + 3 T lymphocytes was normal in IBS, but CD + 8T lymphocytes was higher, CD + 4 was lower, and CD4/CD8 ratio was decreased in IBS patients as compared with the controls. The results of this study indicated that the patients with diarrhea type IBS might be associated with hypo immunity.
PENGARUH PSIKOLOGI INVESTOR TERHADAP VOLUME PERDAGANGAN SAHAM (STUDI EMPIRIS PADA INDEKS SAHAM Lq45 YANG TERDAFTAR DI BEI)

Konsep behavioral finance mengatakan bahwa keputusan investasi yang dilakukan oleh investor lebih mempertimbangkan aspek-aspek non-ekonomi terutama aspek psikologis yang dapat mempegaruhi perilaku investor. Hal ini karena investor dalam kenyataannya seringkali melakukan tindakan berdasarkan judgment dan bertentangan dengan teori yang selama ini dikemukakan dalam pasar modal tentang asumsi rasionalitas. Pasar mungkin memberikan reaksi cepat terhadap informasi (seperti yang disyaratkan dalam Efficient Market Hypothesis), namun pengaruh reaksi tersebut justru mungkin lebih banyak dipengaruhi oleh unsur subyektifitas, emosi, dan berbagai faktor psikologis lainnya. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh faktor psikologi investor terhadap volume perdagangan saham dengan berfokus pada variabel overconfidence dan rational expectation investor. Sampel yang digunakan adalah perusahaan indeks LQ45 yang terdaftar di bursa efek Indonesia. Metode analisis data menggunakan pendekatan Fuzzy Logic Model dengan bantuan software MATLAB versi 2008. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa overconfidence dan rational expectation berpengaruh positif terhadap volume perdagangan saham. Hal ini berarti bahwa keputusan investasi yang dilakukan oleh investor selain mempertimbangkan aspek ekonomi, juga mempertimbangkan aspek non-ekonomi terutama aspek psikologis. Investor yang overconfidence akan merespon pasar dengan cepat yang tercermin dari meningkatnya volume perdagangan saham. Selain itu, investor yang memiliki ekspektasi rasional yang tinggi juga akan meningkatkan volume perdagangan saham.
Is internet access bad news for media-capturing incumbents?

ABSTRACT This paper’s objective is to investigate the effects of internet access on voter behavior in governor elections at the state level in aconsolidating democracy. Using a fractional probit model for panel data, we analyze the electoral outcomes in 31 Mexican states and Mexico City during state/city governor elections between 1999 and 2015. The evidence suggests that, in environments where traditional media might be captured by government (1) an increase in government expenditure growth in the year before elections increases the incumbent party’s vote share, and (2) in contrast, an increase in the portion of the population that has access to the internet reduces it. Not surprisingly, these effects seem to diminish as more broadcast companies enter the market. Unlike previous studies, this paper considers how changes in the market conditions (industry concentration and technology) of news supply, and their resulting effects on media freedom, influence voters.
Control and collaboration in Philippine conglomerates: an empirical study on the effects of board structural characteristics on firm performance

ABSTRACT This study investigates the board structure – firm performance relationships of Philippine conglomerates. Agency and stewardship theories are used to specify panel regression models. Accounting and market firm performance measures are used to analyse the relationships. Results show significant: (1) positive associations between the separation of the CEO and Chairman roles; and (2) negative association between a higher proportion of outside, independent directors, and firm performance. This study highlights the opportunity to expand and nuance governance research in emerging markets.