Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Will a New Little Ice Age Begin in the Next Few Decades

Recently, Abdussamatov (2012) claimed that a period of deep (>1.0 o C) global cooling–a new Little Ice Age–will begin soon. The question of future climate variability is not merely of scientific interest but of huge significance for the wellbeing of mankind. We examine here in detail the statements of Abdussamatov (2012), which have received appreciable response in the popular media. We revealed that the prediction of a significant drop in global temperature in the next few decades has poor scientific basis. We conclude that this cooling projection is based on: (a) a number of either arbitrary or erroneous assumptions, (b) lack or ignorance of experimental data, (c) and a more or less flawed forecasting technique. Possible scenarios of future climatic variation are discussed.
The influence of preferential flow on hillslope hydrology in a semi‐arid watershed (in the Spanish Dehesas)

Preferential flow is known to influence hillslope hydrology in many areas around the world. Most research on preferential flow has been performed in temperate regions. Preferential infiltration has also been found in semi‐arid regions, but its impact on the hydrology of these regions is poorly known. The aim of this study is to describe and quantify the influence of preferential flow on the hillslope hydrology from small scale (infiltration) to large scale (subsurface stormflow) in a semi‐arid Dehesa landscape. Precipitation, soil moisture content, piezometric water level and discharge data were used to analyse the hydrological functioning of a catchment in Spain. Variability of soil moisture content during the transition from dry to wet season (September to November) within horizontal soil layers leads to the conclusion that there is preferential infiltration into the soils. When the rainfall intensity is high, a water level rapidly builds up in the piezometer pipes in the area, sometimes even reaching soil surface. This water level also drops back to bedrock within a few hours (under dry catchment conditions) to days (under wet catchment conditions). As the soil matrix is not necessarily wet while this water layer is built up, it is thought to be a transient water table in large connected pores which drain partly to the matrix, partly fill up bedrock irregularities and partly drain through subsurface flow to the channels. When the soil matrix becomes wetter the loss of water from macropores to the matrix and bedrock decreases and subsurface stormflow increases. It may be concluded that the hillslope hydrological system consists of a fine matrix domain and a macropore domain, which have their own flow characteristics but which also interact, depending on the soil matrix and macropore moisture contents. The macropore flow can result in subsurface flow, ranging from 13% contribution to total discharge for a large event of high intensity rainfall or high discharge to 80% of total discharge for a small event with low intensity rainfall or low discharge. During large events the fraction of subsurface stormflow in the discharge is suppressed by the large amount of surface runoff. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Deep mantle viscous structure with prior estimate and satellite constraint

Radial viscosity profiles are constructed for the mantle using plausible temperature profiles and high-temperature creep models in olivine. While it is possible to specifically design mantle thermal profiles that produce relatively constant viscosity, temperatures deduced from parametric and/or full numerical simulation of convection predict steep increases of viscosity with depth. The most ubiquitous trend is an increase in viscosity from about 800 to 900 km depth to the top of the D″ layer. Predicted increase of viscosity in this portion of the lower mantle ranges from a factor of 102 to 104. Precise estimates are impossible due uncertainty in determining activation volume V* and activation energy E*. Zeroth-order extrapolation of a creep law to lower mantle conditions requires the assumption that diffusion of a single ionic species controls dislocation mobility. The extrapolation is useful in spite of its great uncertainty. Our rationale consists of two essential elements: (1) Creep laws with depth-dependent prefactor A(r) and depth-dependent activation volume V*(r), energy E*(r), and enthalpy S*(r) can be parameterized using estimates of diffusion constants based on elasticity. (2) Secular changes in Earth's gravity field, particularly the zonal coefficients Jl are now detected in the orbits of artificial satellites such as LAGEOS and Starlette. These secular changes are believed to be dominated by postglacial rebound, although there is some contribution from present-day glacial melting. These gravity field measurements, when combined with constraints on glacial melting, provide a sensitive set of constraints on lower mantle viscous response to the Last glacial epoch and, hence, provide a test of a priori estimates. A radially stratified and incompressible Earth model is used to test sensitivity of data to viscosity increases with depth and convective boundary layer structure. Prior estimates and observed nontidal J2(−C20) are consistent with a layered lower mantle viscosity. Details of this layering are examined by comparing predicted and observed J3, J4. Speculation that a high-viscosity layer exists above D″ is considered. With a 650-km-thick deep high-viscosity layer (η ≈ 6.0 × 1023 Pa s) the remaining lower mantle is in one of two ranges: 1.5 to 3.5 × 1020 or 3.5 to about 10. × 1022 Pa s. Observational bounds on secular gravity coefficients C30, C40, C50, and C70 using LAGEOS, Starlette, or Etalon satellite data could eliminate the ambiguity between these two viscosity ranges.
Characterisation of a Highly Energetic Tidal Energy Site with Specific Reference to Hydrodynamics and Bathymetry

Abstract — Characterisation of a tidal energy site must include the interrelationships between flow and bathymetry so that impacts can be anticipated with a high level of detail and confidence. This paper presents high-spatial resolution velocity data of tidal flow, which was measured using a vessel-mounted acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) within Ramsey Sound, Wales. This is a high energy environment where peak mean current speeds during spring tides are in excess of 4ms -1 . The spatial variability of the flow, both transversely and vertically, in this area is high, with the flood and ebb tides displaying markedly different regimes. The vertical shear across the swept width of a 15m diameter TST has revealed that the shear at lower velocities (namely during the ebb tide) is relatively low, however, the vertical shear increases with increasing velocity and in many locations along the deeper channel where designthe velocity magnitude is high enough for energy extraction, the vertical shear is very high. A selection of locations are identified where the average velocity across the turbine is high and the vertical shear is relatively low, however, these areas are adjacent to areas of high vertical shear in the deep channel. Vertical shear during peak flood conditions is greatest immediately upstream and downstream of a prominent pinnacle. This paper demonstrates that small-scale and large-scale bathymetric features have a major influence on velocity structure, and can significantly alter the principal flow direction.
Comment on “Deep resistivity cross section of the intraplate Atlas Mountains (NW Africa): New evidence of anomalous mantle and related Quaternary volcanism”

Citation: Jones, A. G. , D. Kiyan, J. Fullea, J. Ledo, P. Queralt, A. Marcuello, A. Siniscalchi, and G. Romano (2012), Commenton “Deep resistivity cross section of the intraplate Atlas Mountains (NW Africa): New evidence of anomalous mantle and relatedQuaternary volcanism,” Tectonics, 31, TC5011, doi:10.1029/2011TC003051.
Trends in upper‐level cloud cover and surface divergence over the tropical Indo‐Pacific Ocean between 1952 and 1997

[1] This study investigates the spatial pattern of linear trends in surface-observed upper-level (combined midlevel and high-level) cloud cover, precipitation, and surface divergence over the tropical Indo-Pacific Ocean during 1952–1997. Cloud values were obtained from the Extended Edited Cloud Report Archive (EECRA), precipitation values were obtained from the Hulme/Climate Research Unit data set, and surface divergence was alternatively calculated from wind reported by Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set and from wind derived from Smith and Reynolds Extended Reconstructed sea level pressure data. Between 1952 and 1997, upper-level cloud cover increased by about 4%-sky-cover over the central equatorial South Pacific and decreased by about 4–6%-sky-cover over the adjacent subtropics, the western Pacific, and the equatorial Indian Ocean. Trends in precipitation and surface convergence are usually positive where upper-level cover trends are positive and negative where they are negative. Consistency between time series of upper-level cloud cover reported by EECRA and the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) during 1984–1997 for various subregions provides further confirmation that the surface-observed upper cloud trends are real. Estimated radiative effects of surface-observed cloud cover anomalies are also well correlated with all-sky radiation flux anomalies reported by the Earth Radiation Budget Satellite in most areas. Contrastingly, EECRA and ISCCP low-level cloud cover regional time series exhibit little correspondence, and EECRA low-level cloud cover trends are uniformly positive across the tropical Indo-Pacific with no apparent relationship to changes in surface divergence. Although the spatial pattern of upper-level cloud trends resembles that associated with El Nino, the trends are approximately three times larger than those predicted by a linear relationship to sea surface temperature in the Nino3.4 region.
New observations of sprites from the space shuttle

[1] We present the results of space-based observations of sprites obtained during the Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX) sprite campaign conducted on board the space shuttle Columbia during its STS-107 mission in January 2003. A total of ∼6 hours of useful data were saved from 21 different orbits, of which 1/5 contained lightning. We imaged sprites from an altitude of 280 km using a calibrated multispectral camera above thunderstorms in various geographical locations, mainly in central Africa, northern Australia, and South America, and also over the Pacific and Indian Oceans. In this paper we report on sprites observed from ranges 1600–2000 km from the shuttle, at altitudes of 40–90 km above the ground. Their brightness was in the range of 0.3–1.7 mega-Rayleighs (MR) in the 665 nm filter and 1.44–1.7 MR in the 860 nm filter. On the basis of the frequency of observed events and the number of tropical thunderstorms, we estimate the sprite rate in the tropics to be of the order of several per minute.
Indigenous Oral History and Settlement Archaeology in Barkley Sound, Western Vancouver Island

In North America, Indigenous oral historical accounts of events in the distant past are regularly subject to the critique that such histories are contrived to suit practical political purposes and/or are qualitatively less robust than are textual or material forms of historical evidence (Mason 2000; McGhee 2008). A commonly cited reason for this is the conception that oral histories are considered to be vulnerable to “inherent” degradation over time (Vansina 1985), a viewpoint that closely parallels the widespread belief that Aboriginal cultures have been “degraded” due to cultural assimilation. In Canada, such pervasive scepticism helps explain the continued privileging of colonial historical accounts over Indigenous historical experiences, exemplified by the treatment of Indigenous oral history in courts of law (Martindale 2014; Miller 1992, 2011). Archaeologists who seek to include Indigenous oral historical accounts in their interpretations are frequently charged with perpetuating a teleological (logically circular) account of history and/or cannot pass muster with scientific standards of evidence (Henige 2009; Mason 2006; McGhee 2008). However, a fundamental problem with such a critique is that it seeks to minimize consideration of oral history as a legitimate and relevant source for archaeological insight and thus further displaces the narration of Indigenous history from Indigenous peoples (Atalay 2008; Cruikshank 2005). It also posits an imbalance between Indigenous oral history and archaeological interpretation, neglecting to foreground how both represent incomplete sources of information that attempt to narrate and assign causality to human history (Martindale and Nicholas 2014; Wylie 2014).
EFFECTS OF TRASH INCORPORATION AND SOIL WATER CONTENT ON THE RATE OF BREAKDOWN OF SOLUBLE SUGARS IN THE SOIL FOLLOWING SUGARCANE HARVEST

Earlier studies have shown that the biological oxygen demand (BOD5) of water that has been in contact with sugar juice, sugarcane trash and in runoff water from sugar-cane fields can be very high. The development of management strategies that minimise the impact of runoff water from sugarcane fields requires an understanding of the rate of breakdown of sugar and trash, and how this may be changed by environmental factors (such as water content) and degree of contact with the soil. This study presents further data on the BOD5 of the runoff water following harvest for two cane growing areas, Burdekin (3 sites) and Pimpama (1 site). The data show that, following harvest, the BOD5 in the water can be substantial even 51 days after harvesting. Studies were undertaken in the laboratory with soil from one site in the Burdekin (Rita Island) to investigate the effect of trash incorporation and soil water contents on soil respiration and the rate of disappearance of water-soluble carbohydrates in the soil. Both measurements we found to follow a first order kinetic reaction. It is suggested that incorporating the trash into the soil and keeping the soil moist when irrigation is available should achieve a reduction in BOD5 in runoff water. Harvesting areas near environmentally sensitive waterways for 3–4 weeks prior to the start of the wet season should be avoided or undertaken with due care.
Assessment of the quality of bottled and sachet water sold in Nsukka town

The physical, chemical and microbiological qualities of 17 brands of bottled and sachet water sold in Nsukka town were evaluated to ascertain compliance with recommended standards by World Health Organization (WHO) and National Agency for Food and Drug Administration and Control (NAFDAC). Physical parameters like Total suspended and dissolved solids, turbidity and conductivity were determined by instrumental methods. Cationic and anionic constituents were determined by standard titrimetric and spectrophotometric methods. The study revealed that all the brands of water analyzed were physically and chemically wholesome and met the WHO standards (also adopted by NAFDAC). Four brands (24%) of the water had total viable count above the recommended count of 1000cfu/ml while 88% of the brands had coliform count above the recommended count of zero cfu/ml.
Full‐wave modeling of transionospheric propagation of VLF waves

The full‐wave method (FWM) of N. G. Lehtinen and U. S. Inan (2008) is used to model trans‐ionospheric propagation of VLF electromagnetic waves from ground‐based transmitters up to satellite altitudes. Direct comparison with satellite observations indicates that the VLF wave intensities measured at satellite altitudes are substantially smaller than predicted. The apparent reduction in amplitude is attributed to the presence of irregularities in the ionosphere, which the waves encounter during their traversal of the lower ionosphere. Linear mode scattering from the irregularities convert the whistler waves into quasi‐electrostatic whistler mode (QEWM) waves with wave normal angles near the resonance cone. Recent enhancements to the FWM are also described, which allow the minimization of an aliasing error encountered in taking the inverse Fourier transform.
Processes governing the recovery of a perturbed thermohaline circulation in HadCM3

Abstract In an experiment with the latest version of the Hadley Centre climate model the model response has been analyzed after the thermohaline circulation (THC) in the Atlantic Ocean has been suppressed. The suppression is induced by a strong initial perturbation to the salinity distribution in the upper layer of the northern North Atlantic. The model is then allowed to adjust freely. Salinity gradually increases and deep water formation in the Greenland and Norwegian Seas restarts, later also in the Labrador Sea. The meridional overturning recovers after about 120 yr. In the first few decades when the overturning is very weak surface air temperature is dominated by cooling of much of the Northern Hemisphere and weak warming of the Southern Hemisphere, leading to maximum global cooling of 0.9°C. The disruption to the atmosphere's radiation balance results in a downward flux anomaly at the top of the atmosphere, maximally 0.55 W m–2 in the first decade then decreasing with the THC recovery. The processes.
The Late Miocene Large Mammal Fauna from the Namurungule Formation, Samburu Hills, Northern Kenya

By the Japan-Kenya Expedition, more than 1145 late Miocene vertebrate fossils were collected from the Namurungule Formation in Samburu Hills, Northern Kenya in 1982. These fossils are assigned to at least 29 taxa of which 21 are mammals, including Hominoid, Tetralophodon, two kinds of Hipparion, Brachypotherium, Kenyapotamus, and Pachytragus. Quantitatively, the taxa of Hipparion are the most predominant. But gomphothere, bovid, rhinocerotid and giraffid fossils are approximately as common as each other at Namurungule. Suids, hippopotamids and carnivores seem to be unifonnly rare as fossils at Samburu. In this paper, 19 taxa of mammals are described and discussed briefly. The Namurungule mammalian fauna is closer in age to Ngorora (c. 11 m.y.) than to Mpesida (7 m.y.) from Kenya, and this fauna is similar to the faunas of Samos and Pikermi (Vallesian). It seems that the abundance of Hipparion, giraffids, rhinocerotids and bovids suggests a woodland to savannah environment at or near Namurungule during the upper Miocene. We find very little evidence to suggest that there was forest in the vicinity at the time of deposition.
Relationships between Sea Surface Temperatures in the Gulf of California and Surge Events

Abstract Relationships between sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Gulf of California (GoC) and moisture surge events during the North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME) were examined using the multiplatform-merged daily SST data and the final NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis. When tropical storms pass through the southern end of the gulf, they often trigger moisture surge events. When surge events pass through the gulf, SSTs in the GoC decrease. Evidence indicates that changes in SSTs in the GoC are caused by the surge events associated with tropical storms. The intensification of surface winds and changes in humidity and temperature near the surface associated with surge events increase evaporation and decrease the latent heat entering the gulf. Rainfall originating from the peaks and foothills of the Sierra Madre Occidental (SMO) propagates westward into the GoC. Cloudiness increases over the GoC during the surge events, preventing shortwave radiation from reaching the oceanic surface. The ne.
Origin, shaping and significance of quartz sand grains

Abstract Quantitative and qualitative studies of the shape characteristics of both natural and artificially prepared particles combine with evidence from diverse other sources to suggest strongly that the quartz of granitic rocks and gneisses is repeatedly fractured and healed in an intricate manner before being presented at the Earth's surface and that, in the zone of weathering, this quartz is parted along some of the resulting incipient fractures. The quartz fractures are thought to originate when granitic rocks pass through a state wherein their quartz is brittle while the surrounding feldspar is still ductile. Experimental evidence supports the view that the pattern of fractures affecting granitic quartz is characteristic of the breakage of particles of a brittle solid embedded in a ductile, deforming matrix. This process produces particles that are often remarkably equant and rounded for breakage products. Breakage along incipient fractures can account for the main changes in shape and size that aff.
Bio-optical modelling combined with remote sensing to assess water quality

A simple bio-optical model, with parameter values derived from measurements of the inherent optical properties (IOPs) and optically active substances that are known to influence the IOPs, has been developed. A large historical dataset of measurements of the concentration of chlorophyll a and phaeophytine a (Chl), suspended particulate inorganic material (SPIM) and the absorption coefficient of Coloured Dissolved Organic Matter (CDOM), spanning more than 25 years, has been used together with the model to develop algorithms for the retrieval of these water quality parameters, for a site in Lake Malaren, Sweden. The model takes as input the optically active substances and outputs a reflectance spectrum just above the water surface. From the modelled reflectance, algorithms were derived for Chl, SPIM and CDOM absorption at 420 nm. The algorithms were applied to atmospherically corrected remote sensing data, which were collected by the Compact Airborne Spectrographic Imager, CASI. The radiative transfer code 6S was used for the atmospheric correction of the data. Distribution maps for the three retrieved parameters were constructed and Chl and SPIM were validated by continuous field measurements of fluorescence and beam attenuation. The continuous data were calibrated with water analysis results from nine water samples. The time lag between the image acquisition and the ground data measurements was never more than 3 hours. Even though the model parameter values were collected at different times from that of the CASI over-flight, and from a larger geographic region of Lake Malaren than that used for the CASI measurements, the independently developed algorithms predicted the concentrations of the optically active substances within a reasonable level of accuracy, allowing spatial variations in the substances to be predicted.