Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Modelling and Forecasting the Realized Range Conditional Quantiles

Several studies have focused on the Realized Range Volatility, an estimator of the quadratic variation of financial prices, taking into account the impact of microstructure noise and jumps. However, none has considered direct modeling and forecasting of the Realized Range conditional quantiles. This study carries out a quantile regression analysis to fill this gap. The proposed model takes into account as quantile predictors both the lagged values of the estimated volatility and some key macroeconomic and financial variables, which provide important information about the overall market trend and risk. In this way, and without distributional assumptions on the realized range innovations, it is possible to assess the entire conditional distribution of the estimated volatility. This issue is a critical one for financial decision-makers in terms of pricing, asset allocation, and risk management. The quantile regression approach allows how the links among the involved variables change across the quantiles levels to be analyzed. In addition, a rolling analysis is performed in order to determine how the relationships that characterize the proposed model evolve over time. The analysis is applied to sixteen stocks issued by companies that operate in differing economic sectors of the U.S. market, and the forecast accuracy is validated by means of suitable tests. The results show evidence of the selected variables relevant impacts and, particularly during periods of market stress, highlights heterogeneous effects across quantiles.
Constructing Dynamic Treatment Regimes in Infinite-Horizon Settings

The application of existing methods for constructing optimal dynamic treatment regimes is limited to cases where investigators are interested in optimizing a utility function over a fixed period of time (finite horizon). In this manuscript, we develop an inferential procedure based on temporal difference residuals for optimal dynamic treatment regimes in infinite-horizon settings, where there is no a priori fixed end of follow-up point. The proposed method can be used to determine the optimal regime in chronic diseases where patients are monitored and treated throughout their life. We derive large sample results necessary for conducting inference. We also simulate a cohort of patients with diabetes to mimic the third wave of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, and we examine the performance of the proposed method in controlling the level of hemoglobin A1c. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
Optimum mixed level detecting arrays

As a type of search design, a detecting array can be used to generate test suites to identify and detect faults caused by interactions of factors in a component-based system. Recently, the construction and optimality of detecting arrays have been investigated in depth in the case where all the factors are assumed to have the same number of levels. However, for real world applications, it is more desirable to use detecting arrays in which the various factors may have different numbers of levels. This paper gives a general criterion to measure the optimality of a mixed level detecting array in terms of its size. Based on this optimality criterion, the combinatorial characteristics of mixed level detecting arrays of optimum size are investigated. This enables us to construct optimum mixed level detecting arrays with a heuristic optimization algorithm and combinatorial methods. As a result, some existence results for optimum mixed level detecting arrays achieving a lower bound are provided for practical use.
Guaranteed inference in topic models

One of the core problems in statistical models is the estimation of a posterior distribution. For topic models, the problem of posterior inference for individual texts is particularly important, especially when dealing with data streams, but is often intractable in the worst case. As a consequence, existing methods for posterior inference are approximate and do not have any guarantee on neither quality nor convergence rate. In this paper, we introduce a provably fast algorithm, namely Online Maximum a Posteriori Estimation (OPE), for posterior inference in topic models. OPE has more attractive properties than existing inference approaches, including theoretical guarantees on quality and fast rate of convergence to a local maximal/stationary point of the inference problem. The discussions about OPE are very general and hence can be easily employed in a wide range of contexts. Finally, we employ OPE to design three methods for learning Latent Dirichlet Allocation from text streams or large corpora. Extensive experiments demonstrate some superior behaviors of OPE and of our new learning methods.
Influence Function Analysis of the Restricted Minimum Divergence Estimators : A General Form

The minimum divergence estimators have proved to be useful tools in the area of robust inference. The robustness of such estimators are measured using the classical Influence functions. However, in many complex situations like testing a composite hypothesis using divergence require the estimators to be restricted into some subspace of the parameter space. The robustness of these restricted minimum divergence estimators are very important in order to have overall robust inference. In this paper we provide a comprehensive description of the robustness of such restricted estimators in terms of their Influence Function for a general class of density based divergences along with their unrestricted versions. In particular, the robustness of some popular minimum divergence estimators are also demonstrated under certain usual restrictions. Thus this paper provides a general framework for the influence function analysis of a large class of minimum divergence estimators with or without restrictions on the parameters.
Statistical inference for spatial statistics defined in the Fourier domain

A class of Fourier based statistics for irregular spaced spatial data is introduced, examples include, the Whittle likelihood, a parametric estimator of the covariance function based on the $L_{2}$-contrast function and a simple nonparametric estimator of the spatial autocovariance which is a non-negative function. The Fourier based statistic is a quadratic form of a discrete Fourier-type transform of the spatial data. Evaluation of the statistic is computationally tractable, requiring $O(nb^{})$ operations, where $b$ are the number Fourier frequencies used in the definition of the statistic and $n$ is the sample size. The asymptotic sampling properties of the statistic are derived using both increasing domain and fixed domain spatial asymptotics. These results are used to construct a statistic which is asymptotically pivotal.
Bayesian analysis of Jolly-Seber type models; incorporating heterogeneity in arrival and departure

We propose the use of finite mixtures of continuous distributions in modelling the process by which new individuals, that arrive in groups, become part of a wildlife population. We demonstrate this approach using a data set of migrating semipalmated sandpipers (Calidris pussila) for which we extend existing stopover models to allow for individuals to have different behaviour in terms of their stopover duration at the site. We demonstrate the use of reversible jump MCMC methods to derive posterior distributions for the model parameters and the models, simultaneously. The algorithm moves between models with different numbers of arrival groups as well as between models with different numbers of behavioural groups. The approach is shown to provide new ecological insights about the stopover behaviour of semipalmated sandpipers but is generally applicable to any population in which animals arrive in groups and potentially exhibit heterogeneity in terms of one or more other processes.
Parametric estimation of L\'evy processes

The main purpose of this chapter is to present some theoretical aspects of parametric estimation of L\'evy processes based on high-frequency sampling, with a focus on infinite activity pure-jump models. Asymptotics for several classes of explicit estimating functions are discussed. In addition to the asymptotic normality at several rates of convergence, a uniform tail-probability estimate for statistical random fields is given. As specific cases, we discuss method of moments for the stable L\'evy processes in much greater detail, with briefly mentioning locally stable L\'evy processes too. Also discussed is, due to its theoretical importance, a brief review of how the classical likelihood approach works or does not, beyond the fact that the likelihood function is not explicit.
Improving the INLA approach for approximate Bayesian inference for latent Gaussian models

AbstractWeintroduceanewcopula-basedcorrectionforgeneralizedlinearmixedmodels(GLMMs)within the integrated nested Laplace approximation (INLA) approach for approximateBayesian inference for latent Gaussian models. GLMMs for Binomial and Poisson datawith many zeroes and low counts have been a somewhat diﬃcult case for INLA, and thecase of binary data has been particularly problematic. Our new correction has been im-plemented as part of the R-INLA package, and adds only negligible computational cost.Empiricalevaluationsonbothrealandsimulateddataindicatethatthemethodworkswell. Keywords: Bayesian computation; copulas; generalized linear mixed models; integratednestedLaplaceapproximation;latentGaussianmodels 1 Introduction IntegratedNestedLaplaceApproximations(INLA)wereintroducedbyRue,MartinoCMcCulloch,SearleN2;:::;n,letProb(y
Bayesian variable selection with shrinking and diffusing priors

We consider a Bayesian approach to variable selection in the presence of high dimensional covariates based on a hierarchical model that places prior distributions on the regression coefficients as well as on the model space. We adopt the well-known spike and slab Gaussian priors with a distinct feature, that is, the prior variances depend on the sample size through which appropriate shrinkage can be achieved. We show the strong selection consistency of the proposed method in the sense that the posterior probability of the true model converges to one even when the number of covariates grows nearly exponentially with the sample size. This is arguably the strongest selection consistency result that has been available in the Bayesian variable selection literature; yet the proposed method can be carried out through posterior sampling with a simple Gibbs sampler. Furthermore, we argue that the proposed method is asymptotically similar to model selection with the $L_0$ penalty. We also demonstrate through empirical work the fine performance of the proposed approach relative to some state of the art alternatives.
Models for Extremal Dependence Derived from Skew‐symmetric Families

Skew‐symmetric families of distributions such as the skew‐normal and skew‐t represent supersets of the normal and t distributions, and they exhibit richer classes of extremal behaviour. By defining a non‐stationary skew‐normal process, which allows the easy handling of positive definite, non‐stationary covariance functions, we derive a new family of max‐stable processes – the extremal skew‐t process. This process is a superset of non‐stationary processes that include the stationary extremal‐t processes. We provide the spectral representation and the resulting angular densities of the extremal skew‐t process and illustrate its practical implementation.
High-Dimensional Multivariate Time Series With Additional Structure

ABSTRACT High-dimensional multivariate time series are challenging due to the dependent and high-dimensional nature of the data, but in many applications there is additional structure that can be exploited to reduce computing time along with statistical error. We consider high-dimensional vector autoregressive processes with spatial structure, a simple and common form of additional structure. We propose novel high-dimensional methods that take advantage of such structure without making model assumptions about how distance affects dependence. We provide nonasymptotic bounds on the statistical error of parameter estimators in high-dimensional settings and show that the proposed approach reduces the statistical error. An application to air pollution in the USA demonstrates that the estimation approach reduces both computing time and prediction error and gives rise to results that are meaningful from a scientific point of view, in contrast to high-dimensional methods that ignore spatial structure. In practice, these high-dimensional methods can be used to decompose high-dimensional multivariate time series into lower-dimensional multivariate time series that can be studied by other methods in more depth. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
A Stable Particle Filter in High-Dimensions

We consider the numerical approximation of the filtering problem in high dimensions, that is, when the hidden state lies in $\mathbb{R}^d$ with $d$ large. For low dimensional problems, one of the most popular numerical procedures for consistent inference is the class of approximations termed particle filters or sequential Monte Carlo methods. However, in high dimensions, standard particle filters (e.g. the bootstrap particle filter) can have a cost that is exponential in $d$ for the algorithm to be stable in an appropriate sense. We develop a new particle filter, called the \emph{space-time particle filter}, for a specific family of state-space models in discrete time. This new class of particle filters provide consistent Monte Carlo estimates for any fixed $d$, as do standard particle filters. Moreover, we expect that the state-space particle filter will scale much better with $d$ than the standard filter. We illustrate this analytically for a model of a simple i.i. d. structure and one of a Markovian structure in the $d$-dimensional space-direction, when we show that the algorithm exhibits certain stability properties as $d$ increases at a cost $\mathcal{O}(nNd^2)$, where $n$ is the time parameter and $N$ is the number of Monte Carlo samples, that are fixed and independent of $d$. Similar results are expected to hold, under a more general structure than the i.i. d. ~one. independently of the dimension. Our theoretical results are also supported by numerical simulations on practical models of complex structures. The results suggest that it is indeed possible to tackle some high dimensional filtering problems using the space-time particle filter that standard particle filters cannot handle.
Standardization and Control for Confounding in Observational Studies: A Historical Perspective

Control for confounders in observational studies was generally handled through stratification and standardization until the 1960s. Standardization typically reweights the stratum-specific rates so that exposure categories become comparable. With the development first of loglinear models, soon also of nonlinear regression techniques (logistic regression, failure time regression) that the emerging computers could handle, regression modelling became the preferred approach, just as was already the case with multiple regression analysis for continuous outcomes. Since the mid 1990s it has become increasingly obvious that weighting methods are still often useful, sometimes even necessary. On this background we aim at describing the emergence of the modelling approach and the refinement of the weighting approach for confounder control.
Large and moderate deviation principles for recursive kernel density estimators defined by stochastic approximation method

In this paper we prove large and moderate deviations principles for the recursive kernel estimators of a probability density function defined by the stochastic approximation algorithm introduced by Mokkadem et al. [2009. The stochastic approximation method for the estimation of a probability density. J. Statist. Plann. Inference 139, 2459-2478]. We show that the estimator constructed using the stepsize which minimize the variance of the class of the recursive estimators defined in Mokkadem et al. (2009) gives the same pointwise LDP and MDP as the Rosenblatt kernel estimator. We provide results both for the pointwise and the uniform deviations.
The market for English Premier League (EPL) odds

Abstract This paper employs a Skellam process to represent real-time betting odds for English Premier League (EPL) soccer games. Given a matrix of market odds on all possible score outcomes, we estimate the expected scoring rates for each team. The expected scoring rates then define the implied volatility of an EPL game. As events in the game evolve, we re-estimate the expected scoring rates and our implied volatility measure to provide a dynamic representation of the market’s expectation of the game outcome. Using a dataset of 1520 EPL games from 2012–2016, we show how our model calibrates well to the game outcome. We illustrate our methodology on real-time market odds data for a game between Everton and West Ham in the 2015–2016 season. We show how the implied volatility for the outcome evolves as goals, red cards, and corner kicks occur. Finally, we conclude with directions for future research.
High dimensional errors-in-variables models with dependent measurements

Suppose that we observe $y \in \mathbb{R}^f$ and $X \in \mathbb{R}^{f \times m}$ in the following errors-in-variables model: \begin{eqnarray*} y & = & X_0 \beta^* + \epsilon \\ X & = & X_0 + W \end{eqnarray*} where $X_0$ is a $f \times m$ design matrix with independent subgaussian row vectors, $\epsilon \in \mathbb{R}^f$ is a noise vector and $W$ is a mean zero $f \times m$ random noise matrix with independent subgaussian column vectors, independent of $X_0$ and $\epsilon$. This model is significantly different from those analyzed in the literature in the sense that we allow the measurement error for each covariate to be a dependent vector across its $f$ observations. Such error structures appear in the science literature when modeling the trial-to-trial fluctuations in response strength shared across a set of neurons. Under sparsity and restrictive eigenvalue type of conditions, we show that one is able to recover a sparse vector $\beta^* \in \mathbb{R}^m$ from the model given a single observation matrix $X$ and the response vector $y$. We establish consistency in estimating $\beta^*$ and obtain the rates of convergence in the $\ell_q$ norm, where $q = 1, 2$ for the Lasso-type estimator, and for $q \in [1, 2]$ for a Dantzig-type conic programming estimator. We show error bounds which approach that of the regular Lasso and the Dantzig selector in case the errors in $W$ are tending to 0.
Statistical estimation of quadratic Rényi entropy for a stationary m-dependent sequence

The Rényi entropy is a generalisation of the Shannon entropy and is widely used in mathematical statistics and applied sciences for quantifying the uncertainty in a probability distribution. We consider estimation of the quadratic Rényi entropy and related functionals for the marginal distribution of a stationary m-dependent sequence. The U-statistic estimators under study are based on the number of ε-close vector observations in the corresponding sample. A variety of asymptotic properties for these estimators are obtained (e.g. consistency, asymptotic normality, and Poisson convergence). The results can be used in diverse statistical and computer science problems whenever the conventional independence assumption is too strong (e.g. ε-keys in time series databases and distribution identification problems for dependent samples).
Locally Stationary Functional Time Series

The literature on time series of functional data has focused on processes of which the probabilistic law is either constant over time or constant up to its second-order structure. Especially for long stretches of data it is desirable to be able to weaken this assumption. This paper introduces a framework that will enable meaningful statistical inference of functional data of which the dynamics change over time. We put forward the concept of local stationarity in the functional setting and establish a class of processes that have a functional time-varying spectral representation. Subsequently, we derive conditions that allow for fundamental results from nonstationary multivariate time series to carry over to the function space. In particular, time-varying functional ARMA processes are investigated and shown to be functional locally stationary according to the proposed definition. As a side-result, we establish a Cram\'er representation for an important class of weakly stationary functional processes. Important in our context is the notion of a time-varying spectral density operator of which the properties are studied and uniqueness is derived. Finally, we provide a consistent nonparametric estimator of this operator and show it is asymptotically Gaussian using a weaker tightness criterion than what is usually deemed necessary.
MODEL ASSISTED VARIABLE CLUSTERING: MINIMAX-OPTIMAL RECOVERY AND ALGORITHMS.

The problem of variable clustering is that of estimating groups of similar components of a p-dimensional vector X = (X 1, … , X p ) from n independent copies of X. There exists a large number of algorithms that return data-dependent groups of variables, but their interpretation is limited to the algorithm that produced them. An alternative is model-based clustering, in which one begins by defining population level clusters relative to a model that embeds notions of similarity. Algorithms tailored to such models yield estimated clusters with a clear statistical interpretation. We take this view here and introduce the class of G-block covariance models as a background model for variable clustering. In such models, two variables in a cluster are deemed similar if they have similar associations will all other variables. This can arise, for instance, when groups of variables are noise corrupted versions of the same latent factor. We quantify the difficulty of clustering data generated from a G-block covariance model in terms of cluster proximity, measured with respect to two related, but different, cluster separation metrics. We derive minimax cluster separation thresholds, which are the metric values below which no algorithm can recover the model-defined clusters exactly, and show that they are different for the two metrics. We therefore develop two algorithms, COD and PECOK, tailored to G-block covariance models, and study their minimax-optimality with respect to each metric. Of independent interest is the fact that the analysis of the PECOK algorithm, which is based on a corrected convex relaxation of the popular K-means algorithm, provides the first statistical analysis of such algorithms for variable clustering. Additionally, we compare our methods with another popular clustering method, spectral clustering. Extensive simulation studies, as well as our data analyses, confirm the applicability of our approach.
Dirichlet Fragmentation Processes

Tree structures are ubiquitous in data across many domains, and many datasets are naturally modelled by unobserved tree structures. In this paper, first we review the theory of random fragmentation processes [Bertoin, 2006], and a number of existing methods for modelling trees, including the popular nested Chinese restaurant process (nCRP). Then we define a general class of probability distributions over trees: the Dirichlet fragmentation process (DFP) through a novel combination of the theory of Dirichlet processes and random fragmentation processes. This DFP presents a stick-breaking construction, and relates to the nCRP in the same way the Dirichlet process relates to the Chinese restaurant process. Furthermore, we develop a novel hierarchical mixture model with the DFP, and empirically compare the new model to similar models in machine learning. Experiments show the DFP mixture model to be convincingly better than existing state-of-the-art approaches for hierarchical clustering and density modelling.