Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Factors influencing the use of climate information by Colorado municipal water managers

Water supplies in Colorado are sensitive to climate variability. Throughout the study period (2004–2009), there was an increase in demand for climate products and climate education by water management decision makers, which we attribute to a severe drought beginning in 2002 that changed the decision makers’ perception of risk. Once decision makers recognized that they were vulnerable to water supply shortages, they sought out information and education from the Western Water Assessment (WWA). Building on relationships established prior to the 2002 drought, the WWA improved the climate literacy of water managers through enhanced interaction, which resulted in an increased use of climate information, outlooks (i.e. seasonal forecasts), and projections in water planning. In addition to the way that climate science can inform decision-making, we documented how decision makers can inform climate science of the need for additional research. In this article, we show the evolution of the use of different types of climate products and explain the connections among drought, perception of risk, climate literacy, and interactions with climate information providers.
Neoproterozoic Extension on the Scottish Promontory of Laurentia: Paleogeographic and Tectonic Implications

The Hebridean shield, the northwest foreland of the Caledonian Orogen of Scotland, is a small fragment of Laurentia detached during the Cenozoic opening of the North Atlantic Ocean and is now part of Europe. The shield was at the tip of a major promontory of the ancestral core of North America, between the Newfoundland (Appalachian) and Greenland (Caledonian) margins. Its history is important to understanding late Precambrian and early Paleozoic global paleogeography and tectonics. Isotopic ages and structural complexities in the Moine and Dalradian Supergroups of the Caledonian Orogen have been interpreted as reflecting Neoproterozoic orogenic episodes overprinted by early Paleozoic deformation and metamorphism. A critical body of rock in the Scottish Highlands, the West Highland Granite Gneiss, has been viewed as a synorogenic intrusion into Moine metasedimentary rocks, and its ∼870‐Ma U‐Pb zircon age as dating a Riphean “Knoydartian” orogeny. However, field evidence shows that the granitic protolith of the gneiss was emplaced before a regional suite of tholeiitic dikes was intruded into brittle fractures. The dikes carry all the ductile regional deformation. The zircon age thus reflects the crystallization of an anatectic melt, not its subsequent gneissification. Melting is thought to have resulted from advection of heat by emplacement of basaltic magma deep within the Moine sedimentary pile. In this new scenario, deformation and gneissification took place during the early (Grampian/Taconic) phase of the Caledonian Orogeny, not during the Neoproterozoic. Our interpretation is that all the Knoydartian events were extensional. This leads to a substantial simplification of the pre‐Caledonian history of the Scottish Promontory of Laurentia. Protracted rifting in the Neoproterozoic was concentrated in two phases, with episodes of major extension and bimodal magmatism in the Riphean (∼900–750 Ma) and Vendian (∼600 Ma). These episodes coincide with the two‐stage breakout of Laurentia as a discrete continent during the Neoproterozoic, hypothetically from the Rodinian and Pannotian supercontinents, respectively.
Oxygen‐depleted bottom waters along the west coast of South Africa, 1950–2011

As part of the southern Benguela upwelling ecosystem, South Africa's west coast represents a very productive marine habitat. Decadal-scale environmental and ecosystem regime shifts have been documented based on wind and ocean temperature data, as well as biota. This study analyses the variability of oxygen-depleted (<2 mL L−1) bottom waters on South Africa's west coast shelf using data from St Helena Bay, the most productive embayment in the ecosystem, from 1957, data from demersal and pelagic fisheries surveys since the 1980s, and monthly observations from a fixed transect off St Helena Bay from 2000 to 2011. Oxygen-depleted waters are generally restricted to bottom depths <150 m, and occur regularly during austral summer and autumn, albeit with variable severity. The high spatial variability makes it impossible to define any single station as an indicator station for the extent of oxygen depletion. We provide estimates of the shelf area, 30–33°S, covered by oxygen-depleted bottom water in austral summer and autumn, and show a parabolic relationship between oxygen depletion and upwelling strength. The results suggest that the cumulative upwelling divergence from the onset of the upwelling season (September) to the establishment of oxygen depletion (January) can be used as a proxy indicator for oxygen depletion in summer. Periods of better bottom ventilation are indicated for the second half of the 1960s to the early 1980s; more extensive oxygen depletion at the beginning of the 1950s, and the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s. Implications for environmental monitoring and marine living resources are discussed.
Numerical simulation in adaptive optics

A numerical model of a typical adaptive optics system is described in the report. The developed computer application corresponding to the model includes all the main elements of a real system, namely, computer codes simulating radiation propagation in a turbulent atmosphere with thermal blooming and codes simulating the elements of adaptive optics system (a model of a Shack-Hartmann wavefront sensor, two algorithms of dislocation localization, and a model of adaptive mirror with continuous surface). In the report we include solutions to the some of adaptive optics problems obtained with the model: realization of amplitude-phase control in two-mirror adaptive system, the method to improve the stability of correction for thermal blooming, evaluation of a Shack-Hartmann sensor performance, and some others. These results demonstrate that the set of the developed models is a powerful tool for simulations in the field of adaptive optics.
ADEMU WORKING PAPER SERIES Wage Risk and the Skill Premium

The skill premium has increased significantly in the United States in the last five decades. During the same period, individual wage risk has also increased. This paper proposes a mechanism through which a rise in wage risk increases the skill premium. Intuitively, a rise in uninsured wage risk increases precautionary savings, thereby boosting capital accumulation, which increases the skill premium due to capital-skill complementarity. Using a quantitative macroeconomic model, we find that the rise in wage risk observed between 1967 and 2010 increases the skill premium significantly. This finding is robust across a variety of model specifications.
Palaeoproterozoic mid-basin inversion in the northern Mt Isa terrane, Queensland

The Mellish Park Syncline is located in the northern part of the Mt Isa terrane. It has an axial trace that transects the remnants of the unconformity‐bounded Palaeoproterozoic Leichhardt and Isa Superbasins. The syncline is separated into a lower and upper component based upon variation in fold geometry across the basin‐bounding unconformity. The lower syncline, in the Leichhardt Superbasin, is tight and has an inclined west‐dipping axial plane. The upper syncline, in the Isa Superbasin, is open and upright. The geometry of the lower syncline is a consequence of a period of shortening and basin inversion which post‐dated the Leichhardt Rift Event (ca 1780–1740 Ma) and pre‐dated the Mt Isa Rift Event (ca 1710–1655 Ma), forming an open and upright north‐oriented syncline. Subsequent southeast tilting and half‐graben development during the Mt Isa Rift Event resulted in the lower syncline being tilted into its inclined geometry. Sequences of the Isa Superbasin were then deposited onto the eroded syncline. Th.
Development of Coastal Vulnerability Index for Mangalore Coast, India

Abstract The paper presents the coastal vulnerability index (CVI) for the estimation of vulnerability of the coastal region of Mangalore coast, India, from Talapady to Surathkal. The CVI is an indication of the relative vulnerability of the various segments of the Mangalore coast to coastal erosion hazards. The following variables are used in the estimation of CVI, which is used to rank the vulnerability of the coastal regions: geomorphology, regional coastal slope, shoreline change rates, and population. The rankings for each variable were combined and an index value calculated for 1′ × 1′ grid cells covering the study area.
Long-Lead Seasonal Temperature and Precipitation Prediction Using Tropical Pacific SST Consolidation Forecasts

Abstract Objective seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation for the conterminous United States are produced using tropical Pacific sea surface temperature forecasts for the Nino-3.4 region in conjunction with composites of observed temperature and precipitation keyed to phases of the ENSO cycle. The objective seasonal forecasts are validated against observations for the period February–March–April (FMA) 1995 to September–October–November (SON) 2002, and compared to NOAA's Official Seasonal Forecasts issued by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) for the same period. The objective forecasts are shown to produce skill that is comparable to (and even exceeding) that achieved by the Official Seasonal Forecasts at all leads out to 12.5 months. The forecasts are divided into high-frequency (HF) and trend-adjusted (TA) components in order to show that seasonal forecasters could achieve higher skill in both temperature and precipitation forecasts by taking full advantage of trend information, especially.
Omphacite-bearing metapelite from the Besshi region, Sambagawa metamorphic belt, Japan: Prograde eclogite facies metamorphism recorded in metasediment

Omphacite-bearing metapelite was found from the Seba area of the Besshi region, Sambagawa metamorphic belt, central Shikoku, Japan. Omphacite occurs as inclusions in garnet together with quartz, sodic amphibole, phengite, and paragonite. The major matrix phases are quartz, albite, phengite, chlorite, subcalcic amphibole, calcite, dolomite, and graphite. Garnet shows a prograde zoning and comprises three segments in order from the crystal center to the margin: the core, inner mantle, and outer mantle. The garnet core shows monotonous decrease of MnO content outward, and includes sodic phases: paragonite and glaucophane. The garnet mantle is substantially homogeneous in composition, and poorer in MnO and richer in MgO than the core. The inner mantle of garnet includes omphacite, paragonite and glaucophane. The outer mantle includes omphacite, but paragonite and glaucophane grains are absent. The jadeite content of omphacite inclusions (XJd) increases slightly from 0.55 in grains included in the inner mantle to 0.62 in the outer mantle of garnet. The systematic distribution of sodic minerals in garnet documents a prograde evolution of metamorphism from the blueschist to eclogite facies conditions. The occurrence of omphacite-bearing metapelite in the Seba area of the Besshi region is direct evidence of: (1) at least some of the Sambagawa metapelites in the Besshi region certainly experienced eclogite facies metamorphism, and (2) eclogite facies metamorphism extends beyond the previously assumed eclogite facies area in the Sambagawa belt.
How strategic dynamics complicate the framing of alternatives in strategic environmental assessment The case of the Danish natural gas planning

Unpredictable and complex developments challenge the application of strategic environmental assessment (SEA), e.g. in terms of timing, prediction, and relevance of assessments. Especially multi-actor and unstructured strategic level decision-making processes often seem to be characterised by unpredictable and complex changes. Despite apparent implications, explorative investigations about how unpredictability influences SEA application in practice are rare. This article aims at shedding light on contextual changes and reactions to such changes in practice by a case study of the specific SEA process of the Danish Natural Gas Security of Supply Plan. Special emphasis is given to the framing of alternatives in the SEA process, since alternatives are directly related to the contextual developments. Based on a participative approach, strategic dynamics are mapped and the reactions and concerns in the SEA team are outlined. The contribution of the article is enhanced empirical understanding of strategic dynamics and how it challenges SEA application.
Interannual variability in the mesoscale distribution of the depth of the upper boundary of the oxygen minimum layer off northern Chile (18-24S) : Implications for the pelagic system and biogeochemical cycling

The low oxygen concentration (<2 ml L -1 ) at relatively shallow depths (<100 m) in the coastal upwelling zone and in the adjacent oceanic area is a distinct feature of the eastern boundary Humboldt Current System (HCS) off Peru and northern Chile; it affects the distribution of pelagic organisms and is associated with an important denitrification regime in the water column. Nevertheless, little information is available about the spatial and temporal variability in the distribution of the Oxygen Minimum Layer (OML) present in the HCS and the impact of its variability upon the pelagic system and biogeochemical cycles in the region. The present study reviews the oceanographic data obtained for the area off northern Chile (ca. 18 to 24S, out to 370 km), between 1980 and 1997, with the aim of characterizing the depth distribution of the upper boundary of the OML (1 ml L -1 iso-oxyline, representing also the oxycline) and investigating the association of its interannual variability with changes in coastal sea level and in the equatorial and local thermoclines. The depth of the upper boundary of the OML undergoes pronounced deepening during the occurrence of warm ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) events over the whole area of study, and this, in turn, determines a condition of higher oxygen concentrations in the top 100 m layer. These changes follow closely the patterns of interannual variability in coastal sea level and depth of the thermocline in the area of study during the 1980-1997 period. Most of this variability can be accounted for, as expected from previous studies, by remote forcing originating in the equatorial zone of the Pacific Ocean, as evidenced from the significant correlation between the above local parameters and the interannual variability in the depth of the equatorial thermocline. The 1982-83 and 1997-98 El Nino events seemed to have been the most important ones in terms of their effects upon sea level and depth of the thermocline and oxycline off northern Chile. The potential impacts of the interannual changes in the depth of the upper boundary of the OML upon the pelagic system and biogeochemical cycling in the region are discussed.
Mid Paleocene fossil floras and climate from western Scotland

Fossil plants of Paleocene age (62 to 59.7 Ma) are preserved within lava sequences in the Hebrides and Northern Ireland. These lavas, collectively referred to as the British Tertiary Volcanic Group (BTVP), were formed due to rifting in the North Atlantic. The fossil floras represent forests that grew between the lavas in periods of quiescence, during which fluvio-lacustrine environments developed on the lava surfaces. The fossil plants provide information on the composition of the Paleocene vegetation and the climate during that interval. New collections of fossil plants have been made from the Isle of Skye and other collections from Ardtun on Mull were studied. The Allt Mor locality on Skye (60.16 ± 0.45 Ma) has provided the majority of the specimens for this study and represents a pond deposit where broadleaved angiosperm and conifer leaves accumulated. Fourteen angiosperm morphotypes have been identified, many of which show similarities to modern families, including the Platanaceae, Cercidiphyllaceae, Betulaceae, Fagaceae, Juglandaceae, Vitaceae, Cornaceae and Trochodendraceae. Conifer fossils include three ovulate cone types and eight shoot morphotypes attributed to the Cupressaceae and Pinaceae. The Allt Mor assemblage indicates that mixed coniferous forests developed within a palaeovalley, with the vegetation fringing the valley sides and colonising the floodplains of the valley floor. The vegetation of Allt Mor was dominated by climax conifers similar to Metasequoia, Sequoia, Chamaecyparis and Thuja. Broadleaved angiosperms such as Platanites, Trochodendroides, Corylites and "Platycarya cf" dominated the riparian margins and formed an understory of trees and shrubs in the conifer forests. Comparison with Paleocene floras from other Northern Hemisphere localities indicates that the floras of Skye are most similar to those of the Arctic, particularly those of Svalbard, Greenland and Canada, and were thus part of the Arcto-Tertiary floras of the northern high latitudes. Palaeoclimate estimates derived from the fossil angiosperm leaves indicate that the climate of Skye had a mean annual temperature (MAT) of -5°C to 9°C, was seasonal with warm summers (warm month mean 19.0°C to 25.8°C) and cool to cold winters (cold month mean -3.0°C to 4.2°C). Comparisons with the flora of Ardtun on Mull (60.5 ± 0.3 Ma) reveal that, although these floras share many of the same taxa, the flora is different, with angiosperms dominant, and the conifers that are common in the Allt Mor assemblage are rare or absent. The Ardtun flora also contains thermophilic plants such as Camptodromites major, C. multinervatus and Amentotaxus gladifolia, which are not present on Skye. Palaeoclimatedata from these fossil plants indicate significant cooling during the mid-Paleocene, confirmed by other marine and terrestrial proxies, marking a cool climate phase in the middle of the otherwise globally warm Paleocene climate.
Retrospective development of a novel resilience indicator using existing cohort data: The adolescent to adult health resilience instrument

Background Cohort studies represent rich sources of data that can be used to link components of resilience to a variety of health-related outcomes. The Adolescent to Adult Health (Add Health) cohort study represents one of the largest data sets of the health and social context of adolescents transitioning into adulthood. It did not however use validated resilience scales in its data collection process. This study aimed to retrospectively create and validate a resilience indicator using existing data from the cohort to better understand the resilience of its participants. Methods Questions asked of participants during one Add Health data collection time period (N = 15,701) were matched to items on a well-known and widely validated resilience scale called the Connor Davidson Resilience Scale. Factor analysis and psychometric analyses were used to refine and validate this novel Adolescent to Adult Health Resilience Instrument. Construct validity utilized participants’ answers to the 10 item Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale, which has been used to validate other resilience scales. Results Factor analysis yielded an instrument with 13 items that showed appropriate internal consistency statistics. Resilience scores in our study were normally distributed with no ceiling or floor effects. Our instrument had appropriate construct validity, negatively correlating to answers on the depression scale (r = -0.64, p<0.001). We also found demographic differences in mean resilience scores: lower resilience scores were seen among women and those who reported lower levels of education and household income. Conclusions It is possible to retrospectively construct a resilience indicator from existing cohort data and achieve good psychometric properties. The Adolescent to Adult Health Resilience Instrument can be used to better understand the relationship between resilience, social determinants of health and health outcomes among young adults using existing data, much of which is publicly available.
Asia’s Changing Role in World Trade: Prospects for South–South Trade Growth to 2030

Developing Asia’s rapid economic growth has been shifting the global economic and industrial centers of gravity away from the North Atlantic, raising the importance of Asia in world trade, and boosting South–South trade. How will trade patterns change over the next 2 decades in the course of economic growth and structural changes in developing Asia and the rest of the world? In particular, what can be expected of developing Asia’s intraregional trade and its trade with other developing country regions? This paper addresses these questions by projecting a core baseline for the world economy from 2004 to 2030 and comparing it with alternative scenarios for 2030. We employ the global economywide GTAP model and Version 7.1 of the GTAP database, and assume for the core projection that trade-related policies do not change over the next 2 decades. Alternative scenarios explore (i) slower economic growth rates in the “North”, (ii) slower productivity growth in primary sectors, and (iii) various trade policy reforms in developing Asia without and with policy reforms also in the “North” and in South–South trade. Projected impacts on international prices, sectoral shares of regional gross domestic product and trade, “openness” to trade, and welfare gains from trade reforms are highlighted, in addition to their effects on regional shares of global gross domestic product and trade. The paper concludes by drawing out implications for regional and multilateral trade policy.
A 10‐century comparison of prominent bipolar volcanic events in ice cores

Measurements of key chemical and physical parameters made along continuous and selected long sections of polar ice cores provide reliable past snow accumulation rates and other environmental records. The prime accumulation indicators include variations found in the stable isotopes, ionic constituents, and acidity concentration levels ; and physical changes in the strata and structure. Cross correlations of the time series curves resulting from multiparameter analyses of ice cores from Antarctica (NBY89, SP78, BS68) and Greenland (CR74, D3 81, D3 18C) have been made. The results permit construction of a bipolar chemical stratigraphy chronology of volcanic events that is coherent with the δ 18 O and Electrical Conductivity Method data sets and consistent back-in-time with historically recorded volcanic activity. A bihemispheric comparison of high non-sea-salt SO 4 2- peaks shows strong correlation at 1885, 1836, 1816, 1810, 1459, 1346, 1287, 1278, 1259, 1228, and 1168 A.D. at time of snow deposit. The prominent 1259 A.D. volcanic signal appears to be a significant bipolar ice core index horizon.