A Framework for Rural Coastal Community Resilience: Assessing Diverse Perceptions of Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change.

JURJONAS, MATTHEW DAVID. A Framework for Rural Coastal Community Resilience: Assessing Diverse Perceptions of Adaptive Capacity for Climate Change. (Under the direction of Dr. Erin Seekamp). Coastal communities are increasingly threatened by climate change globally and efforts to build resilience have focused primarily on urban areas and beach tourism destinations. However, rural coastal communities are facing the same threats, but adaptation is challenged by higher poverty rates, out-migration, and lack of social services. Additionally, lower tax bases and the lack of high value properties limit the ability to plan locally. Further, climate justice research has documented historical development patterns in which minority communities, dating back to the reconstruction era occupy some of the lowest-lying and most highly flood-prone land now highly susceptible to sea level rise. Efforts to assess coastal resilience have focused primarily on economic metrics like cost-benefit analysis but have yet to consider the inherent resilience within a community; as such, assessment measures that capture stakeholder’s perceptions of adaptive capacity are needed. Using multiple methods, this research developed and tested the Rural Coastal Community Resilience framework (RCCR) to capture perceptions of adaptive capacity on the low-lying Albemarle Pamlico Peninsula of eastern North Carolina. With the goal of creating a framework useful for engagement and information sharing, the research sought to develop an assessment with accessible vocabulary and concepts for stakeholders. A literature review of resilience in socio-ecological systems was conducted to develop themes for adaptive capacity, which then informed a semi-structured interview protocol for initial engagement in 2015. These themes were the focal indicators of adaptive capacity in the RCCR framework, which considers vulnerability and resilience as two ends of a spectrum that can assess adaptive capacity. In 2016, the RCCR framework was tested in focus group research to explore how the RCCR framework can be employed in outreach and engagement efforts that also measure perceptions of adaptive capacity using preand post-survey assessments and nominal group processes. In 2017, a modified drop-off/ pick-up residential survey was conducted to predict stakeholder’s perceptions of risk in the future to coastal hazards. Additionally, the RCCR framework was used in focus group research within minority communities in 2017 to document unique barriers and challenges to adaptation using a climate justice analytical lens. We found that climate science information and dialogue focused on the RCCR framework increased perceived adaptive capacity in predominately-white communities while it lowered perceived adaptive capacity in African American communities. Specific instances of perceived climate injustices were also found in the minority communities concerning a) the lack of inclusion in government procedure at multiple scales (procedural justice), b) an unequal distribution of flooding impacts (distributive justice), and c) disparaging views of certain communities that lead to a lack of recognition of their unique flood management needs (recognitional justice). Additionally, multiple linear regression models revealed that adaptive capacity is an important predictor of perceived risk to climate change threats. Specifically, the more resilient residents perceived their community, the less at risk they considered themselves to be, which highlights that residents may equate climate change adaptation to previous flood recovery experiences and, thereby, obscure the gravity of sea level rise projections. Several failed local outreach attempts to share planning information and our own unsuccessful outreach attempt to boost perceived adaptive capacity in diverse communities highlight the need for an audience analysis (i.e., determining preferred modes of communication) to achieve effective dissemination of climate science and climate change risk information. Documented low climate change literacy also points to a need to mainstream sea level rise messaging, as isolated and diverse rural communities are predominately unaware that their lands are projected to be inundated. More inclusive government outreach is needed to avoid cases of negligence for failing to inform vulnerable coastal populations of impending threats.