Estimating the Demographic Parameters of Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) Using Temperature-Dependent Development Models and Their Validation under Fluctuating Temperature

Simple Summary Tuta absoluta is an invasive insect pest that has spread widely and established itself in many countries since its first detection in Spain in 2006. The devastating moth originates in South America and attacks tomato and other solanaceous vegetables, leading to huge losses in yield and potential income particularly for small-scale farmers who often lack the resources and knowledge to manage the pest. In most cases, farmers have resorted to the indiscriminate application of broad-spectrum synthetic pesticides, which in most cases are not registered and are often used at high doses. This has resulted in the pest developing resistance to most major classes of pesticides. In addition, the non-selective use of toxic pesticides has resulted in negative effects on the health of users, consumers, and non-target organisms such as pollinators and natural enemies of insect pests. Various tactics aimed at controlling T. absoluta have been developed and are at different stages of adoption by farmers. To ensure that they are effective, sustainable, and friendly to both users and the environment, there is a need for a comprehensive understanding of the pest’s biology and ecology. To this effect, the present study developed models to predict intricate details of the pest’s development, survival, and reproduction using data generated in laboratory studies. Among other important findings, the study reports that temperatures between 20–25 °C are ideal for the development, survival, reproduction, and increase in the population of T. absoluta. These findings are vital in developing strategies in managing the pest, especially in light of global climate change. Abstract The tomato leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Meyrick) (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) is an invasive pest that devastates the production of tomatoes and other solanaceous vegetables. Since its trans-Atlantic invasion in 2006, T. absoluta has spread and established in many countries across the Afro-Eurasian Supercontinent, causing huge yield losses. This study aimed to determine the relationship between temperature and the life history traits of T. absoluta and provide the thermal thresholds for development using life cycle modelling. Linear and non-linear models were fitted to life table data collected at five constant temperatures of 15, 20, 25, 30, and 35 °C, with Relative Humidity 70 ± 5% and photoperiod 12L:12D. Another experiment was conducted at fluctuating temperatures to validate the laboratory results. Tuta absoluta completed its life cycle at temperatures between 15 and 35 °C. The development time ranged between 4.0–11 days, 6.3–16.0 days, and 5.4–20.7 days for egg, larva, and pupa, respectively. The lowest thermal threshold was estimated at 8.10, 7.83, and 11.62 °C, respectively for egg, larva, and pupa. While the optimum temperature for T. absoluta immature stages survival and female fecundity were predicted at a temperature range of 21–23 °C. The intrinsic rate of increase (rm), gross reproductive (GRR), and net reproductive (Ro) rates were significantly higher at temperatures between 20–25 °C. The model validation outcome showed similarities between observed and simulated values for development time, mortality rate, and life table parameters, attesting to the quality of the phenology model. Our results will help in predicting the effect of climate warming on the distribution and population dynamics of T. absoluta. Furthermore, the results could be used to develop management strategies adapted to different agroecological zones.