Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Estimation for an additive growth curve model with orthogonal design matrices

An additive growth curve model with orthogonal design matrices is proposed in which observations may have different profile forms. The proposed model allows us to fit data and then estimate parameters in a more parsimonious way than the traditional growth curve model. Two-stage generalized least-squares estimators for the regression coefficients are derived where a quadratic estimator for the covariance of observations is taken as the first-stage estimator. Consistency, asymptotic normality and asymptotic independence of these estimators are investigated. Simulation studies and a numerical example are given to illustrate the efficiency and parsimony of the proposed model for model specifications in the sense of minimizing Akaike’s information criterion (AIC).
Estimating and understanding exponential random graph models

We introduce a method for the theoretical analysis of exponential random graph models. The method is based on a large-deviations approximation to the normalizing constant shown to be consistent using theory developed by Chatterjee and Varadhan [European J. Combin. 32 (2011) 1000-1017]. The theory explains a host of difficulties encountered by applied workers: many distinct models have essentially the same MLE, rendering the problems ``practically'' ill-posed. We give the first rigorous proofs of ``degeneracy'' observed in these models. Here, almost all graphs have essentially no edges or are essentially complete. We supplement recent work of Bhamidi, Bresler and Sly [2008 IEEE 49th Annual IEEE Symposium on Foundations of Computer Science (FOCS) (2008) 803-812 IEEE] showing that for many models, the extra sufficient statistics are useless: most realizations look like the results of a simple Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi model. We also find classes of models where the limiting graphs differ from Erd\H{o}s-R\'{e}nyi graphs. A limitation of our approach, inherited from the limitation of graph limit theory, is that it works only for dense graphs.
Approximating the inverse of banded matrices by banded matrices with applications to probability and statistics

In the first part of this paper we give an elementary proof of the fact that if an infinite matrix $A$, which is invertible as a bounded operator on $\ell^2$, can be uniformly approximated by banded matrices then so can the inverse of $A$. We give explicit formulas for the banded approximations of $A^{-1}$ as well as bounds on their accuracy and speed of convergence in terms of their band-width. In the second part we apply these results to covariance matrices $\Sigma$ of Gaussian processes and study mixing and beta mixing of processes in terms of properties of $\Sigma$. Finally, we note some applications of our results to statistics.
POSITIVE MARGINS AND PRIMARY DECOMPOSITION

We study random walks on contingency tables with fixed marginals, cor- responding to a (log-linear) hierarchical model. If the set of allowed moves is not a Markov basis, then there exist tables with the same marginals that are not connected. We study linear conditions on the values of the marginals that ensure that all tables in a given fiber are connected. We show that many graphical models have the posi- tive margins property, which says that all fibers with strictly positive marginals are connected by the quadratic moves that correspond to conditional independence state- ments. The property persists under natural operations such as gluing along cliques, but we also construct examples of graphical models not enjoying this property. Our analysis of the positive margins property depends on computing the primary decomposition of the associated conditional independence ideal. The main technical results of the paper are primary decompositions of the conditional independence ideals of graphical models of the N-cycle and the complete bipartite graph K2,N 2, with various restrictions on the size of the nodes.
Test for Bandedness of High Dimensional Covariance Matrices with Bandwidth Estimation

Motivated by the latest effort to employ banded matrices to estimate a high-dimensional covariance Σ , we propose a test for Σ being banded with possible diverging bandwidth. The test is adaptive to the “large p , small n ” situations without assuming a specific parametric distribution for the data. We also formulate a consistent estimator for the bandwidth of a banded high-dimensional covariance matrix. The properties of the test and the bandwidth estimator are investigated by theoretical evaluations and simulation studies, as well as an empirical analysis on a protein mass spectroscopy data.
Sharp Variable Selection of a Sparse Submatrix in a High-Dimensional Noisy Matrix

We observe a $N\times M$ matrix of independent, identically distributed Gaussian random variables which are centered except for elements of some submatrix of size $n\times m$ where the mean is larger than some $a>0$. The submatrix is sparse in the sense that $n/N$ and $m/M$ tend to 0, whereas $n,\, m, \, N$ and $M$ tend to infinity. We consider the problem of selecting the random variables with significantly large mean values. We give sufficient conditions on $a$ as a function of $n,\, m,\,N$ and $M$ and construct a uniformly consistent procedure in order to do sharp variable selection. We also prove the minimax lower bounds under necessary conditions which are complementary to the previous conditions. The critical values $a^*$ separating the necessary and sufficient conditions are sharp (we show exact constants). We note a gap between the critical values $a^*$ for selection of variables and that of detecting that such a submatrix exists given by Butucea and Ingster (2012). When $a^*$ is in this gap, consistent detection is possible but no consistent selector of the corresponding variables can be found.
Inferences in Bayesian variable selection problems with large model spaces

An important aspect of Bayesian model selection is how to deal with huge model spaces, since exhaustive enumeration of all the models entertained is unfeasible and inferences have to be based on the very small proportion of models visited. This is the case for the variable selection problem, with a moderate to large number of possible explanatory variables being considered in this paper. We review some of the strategies proposed in the literature and argue that inferences based on empirical frequencies via Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution outperforms recently proposed searching methods. We give a plausible yet very simple explanation of this effect, showing that estimators based on frequencies are unbiased. The results obtained in two illustrative examples provide strong evidence in favor of our arguments.
Theory and Inference for a Class of Observation-driven Models with Application to Time Series of Counts

This paper studies theory and inference related to a class of time series models that incorporates nonlinear dynamics. It is assumed that the observations follow a one-parameter exponential family of distributions given an accompanying process that evolves as a function of lagged observations. We employ an iterated random function approach and a special coupling technique to show that, under suitable conditions on the parameter space, the conditional mean process is a geometric moment contracting Markov chain and that the observation process is absolutely regular with geometrically decaying coefficients. Moreover the asymptotic theory of the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters is established under some mild assumptions. These models are applied to two examples; the first is the number of transactions per minute of Ericsson stock and the second is related to return times of extreme events of Goldman Sachs Group stock.
Bayesian Vertex Nomination

Consider an attributed graph whose vertices are colored green or red, but only a few are observed to be red. The color of the other vertices is unobserved. Typically, the unknown total number of red vertices is small. The vertex nomination problem is to nominate one of the unobserved vertices as being red. The edge set of the graph is a subset of the set of unordered pairs of vertices. Suppose that each edge is also colored green or red and this is observed for all edges. The context statistic of a vertex is defined as the number of observed red vertices connected to it, and its content statistic is the number of red edges incident to it. Assuming that these statistics are independent between vertices and that red edges are more likely between red vertices, Coppersmith and Priebe (2012) proposed a likelihood model based on these statistics. Here, we formulate a Bayesian model using the proposed likelihood together with prior distributions chosen for the unknown parameters and unobserved vertex colors. From the resulting posterior distribution, the nominated vertex is the one with the highest posterior probability of being red. Inference is conducted using a Metropolis-within-Gibbs algorithm, and performance is illustrated by a simulation study. Results show that (i) the Bayesian model performs significantly better than chance; (ii) the probability of correct nomination increases with increasing posterior probability that the nominated vertex is red; and (iii) the Bayesian model either matches or performs better than the method in Coppersmith and Priebe. An application example is provided using the Enron email corpus, where vertices represent Enron employees and their associates, observed red vertices are known fraudsters, red edges represent email communications perceived as fraudulent, and we wish to identify one of the latent vertices as most likely to be a fraudster.
DEEP-FRI: Sampling outside the box improves soundness

Motivated by the quest for scalable and succinct zero knowledge arguments, we revisit worst-case-to-average-case reductions for linear spaces, raised by [Rothblum, Vadhan, Wigderson, STOC 2013]. We first show a sharp quantitative form of a theorem which says that if an affine space $U$ is $\delta$-far in relative Hamming distance from a linear code $V$ - this is the worst-case assumption - then most elements of $U$ are almost $\delta$-far from $V$ - this is the average case. This leads to an optimal analysis of the soundness of the FRI protocol of [Ben-Sasson, this http URL. , eprint 2018] for proving proximity to Reed-Solomon codes. To further improve soundness, we sample outside the box. We suggest a new protocol which asks a prover for values of a polynomial at points outside the domain of evaluation of the Reed-Solomon code. We call this technique Domain Extending for Eliminating Pretenders (DEEP). We use the DEEP technique to devise two new protocols: (1) An Interactive Oracle Proof of Proximity (IOPP) for RS codes, called DEEP-FRI. This soundness of the protocol improves upon that of the FRI protocol while retaining linear arithmetic proving complexity and logarithmic verifier arithmetic complexity. (2) An Interactive Oracle Proof (IOP) for the Algebraic Linking IOP (ALI) protocol used to construct zero knowledge scalable transparent arguments of knowledge (ZK-STARKs) in [Ben-Sasson et al., eprint 2018]. The new protocol, called DEEP-ALI, improves soundness of this crucial step from a small constant $< 1/8$ to a constant arbitrarily close to $1$.
A decision theoretic approach for segmental classification using Hidden Markov models

This paper is concerned with statistical methods for the segmental classification of linear sequence data where the task is to segment and classify the data according to an underlying hidden discrete state sequence. Such analysis is commonplace in the empirical sciences including genomics, finance and speech processing. In particular, we are interested in answering the following question: given data $y$ and a statistical model $\pi(x,y)$ of the hidden states $x$, what should we report as the prediction $\hat{x}$ under the posterior distribution $\pi (x|y)$? That is, how should you make a prediction of the underlying states? We demonstrate that traditional approaches such as reporting the most probable state sequence or most probable set of marginal predictions can give undesirable classification artefacts and offer limited control over the properties of the prediction. We propose a decision theoretic approach using a novel class of Markov loss functions and report $\hat{x}$ via the principle of minimum expected loss (maximum expected utility). We demonstrate that the sequence of minimum expected loss under the Markov loss function can be enumerated exactly using dynamic programming methods and that it offers flexibility and performance improvements over existing techniques. The result is generic and applicable to any probabilistic model on a sequence, such as Hidden Markov models, change point or product partition models.
Asymptotic behavior of the unconditional NPMLE of the length-biased survivor function from right censored prevalent cohort data

Right censored survival data collected on a cohort of prevalent cases with constant incidence are length-biased, and may be used to estimate the length-biased (i.e., prevalent-case) survival function. When the incidence rate is constant, so-called stationarity of the incidence, it is more efficient to use this structure for unconditional statistical inference than to carry out an analysis by conditioning on the observed truncation times. It is well known that, due to the informative censoring for prevalent cohort data, the Kaplan-Meier estimator is not the unconditional NPMLE of the length-biased survival function and the asymptotic properties of the NPMLE do not follow from any known result. We present here a detailed derivation of the asymptotic properties of the NPMLE of the length-biased survival function from right censored prevalent cohort survival data with follow-up. In particular, we show that the NPMLE is uniformly strongly consistent, converges weakly to a Gaussian process, and is asymptotically efficient. One important spin-off from these results is that they yield the asymptotic properties of the NPMLE of the incident-case survival function [see Asgharian, M'Lan and Wolfson J. Amer. Stutisi. Assoc. 97 (2002) 201-209], which is often of prime interest in a prevalent cohort study. Our results generalize those given by Vardi and Zhang [Ann. Statist. 20 (1992) 1022-1039] under multiplicative censoring, which we show arises as a degenerate case in a prevalent cohort setting.
Spatially explicit models for inference about density in unmarked or partially marked populations

Recently developed spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models represent a major advance over traditional capture-recapture (CR) models because they yield explicit estimates of animal density instead of population size within an unknown area. Furthermore, unlike nonspatial CR methods, SCR models account for heterogeneity in capture probability arising from the juxtaposition of animal activity centers and sample locations. Although the utility of SCR methods is gaining recognition, the requirement that all individuals can be uniquely identified excludes their use in many contexts. In this paper, we develop models for situations in which individual recognition is not possible, thereby allowing SCR concepts to be applied in studies of unmarked or partially marked populations. The data required for our model are spatially referenced counts made on one or more sample occasions at a collection of closely spaced sample units such that individuals can be encountered at multiple locations. Our approach includes a spatial point process for the animal activity centers and uses the spatial correlation in counts as information about the number and location of the activity centers. Camera-traps, hair snares, track plates, sound recordings, and even point counts can yield spatially correlated count data, and thus our model is widely applicable. A simulation study demonstrated that while the posterior mean exhibits frequentist bias on the order of 5-10% in small samples, the posterior mode is an accurate point estimator as long as adequate spatial correlation is present. Marking a subset of the population substantially increases posterior precision and is recommended whenever possible. We applied our model to avian point count data collected on an unmarked population of the northern parula (Parula americana) and obtained a density estimate (posterior mode) of 0.38 (95% CI: 0.19-1.64) birds/ha. Our paper challenges sampling and analytical conventions in ecology by demonstrating that neither spatial independence nor individual recognition is needed to estimate population density - rather, spatial dependence can be informative about individual distribution and density.
A factor mixture analysis model for multivariate binary data

The paper proposes a latent variable model for binary data coming from an unobserved heterogeneous population. The heterogeneity is taken into account by replacing the traditional assumption of Gaussian distributed factors by a finite mixture of multivariate Gaussians. The aim of the proposed model is twofold: it allows to achieve dimension reduction when the data are dichotomous and, simultaneously, it performs model based clustering in the latent space. Model estimation is obtained by means of a maximum likelihood method via a generalized version of the EM algorithm. In order to evaluate the performance of the model a simulation study and two real applications are illustrated.
Peak Detection as Multiple Testing

This paper considers the problem of detecting equal-shaped non-overlapping unimodal peaks in the presence of Gaussian ergodic stationary noise, where the number, location and heights of the peaks are unknown. A multiple testing approach is proposed in which, after kernel smoothing, the presence of a peak is tested at each observed local maximum. The procedure provides strong control of the family wise error rate and the false discovery rate asymptotically as both the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) and the search space get large, where the search space may grow exponentially as a function of SNR. Simulations assuming a Gaussian peak shape and a Gaussian autocorrelation function show that desired error levels are achieved for relatively low SNR and are robust to partial peak overlap. Simulations also show that detection power is maximized when the smoothing bandwidth is close to the bandwidth of the signal peaks, akin to the well-known matched filter theorem in signal processing. The procedure is illustrated in an analysis of electrical recordings of neuronal cell activity.
Gradient statistic: higher-order asymptotics and Bartlett-type correction

We obtain an asymptotic expansion for the null distribution function of thegradient statistic for testing composite null hypotheses in the presence of nuisance parameters. The expansion is derived using a Bayesian route based on the shrinkage argument described in Ghosh and Mukerjee (1991). Using this expansion, we propose a Bartlett-type corrected gradient statistic with chi-square distribution up to an error of order o(n^{-1}) under the null hypothesis. Further, we also use the expansion to modify the percentage points of the large sample reference chi-square distribution. A small Monte Carlo experiment and various examples are presented and discussed.
People born in the Middle East but residing in the Netherlands: Invariant population size estimates and the role of active and passive covariates

Including covariates in loglinear models of population registers improves population size estimates for two reasons. First, it is possible to take heterogeneity of inclusion probabilities over the levels of a covariate into account; and second, it allows subdivision of the estimated population by the levels of the covariates, giving insight into characteristics of individuals that are not included in any of the registers. The issue of whether or not marginalizing the full table of registers by covariates over one or more covariates leaves the estimated population size estimate invariant is intimately related to collapsibility of contingency tables [Biometrika 70 (1983) 567–578]. We show that, with information from two registers, population size invariance is equivalent to the simultaneous collapsibility of each margin consisting of one register and the covariates. We give a short path characterization of the loglinear model which describes when marginalizing over a covariate leads to different population size estimates. Covariates that are collapsible are called passive, to distinguish them from covariates that are not collapsible and are termed active. We make the case that it can be useful to include passive covariates within the estimation model, because they allow a finer description of the population in terms of these covariates. As an example we discuss the estimation of the population size of people born in the Middle East but residing in the Netherlands
On The Convergence of a Nash Seeking Algorithm with Stochastic State Dependent Payoff

Distributed strategic learning has been getting attention in recent years. As systems become distributed finding Nash equilibria in a distributed fashion is becoming more important for various applications. In this paper, we develop a distributed strategic learning framework for seeking Nash equilibria under stochastic state-dependent payoff functions. We extend the work of Krstic et.al. in [1] to the case of stochastic state dependent payoff functions. We develop an iterative distributed algorithm for Nash seeking and examine its convergence to a limiting trajectory defined by an Ordinary Differential Equation (ODE). We show convergence of our proposed algorithm for vanishing step size and provide an error bound for fixed step size. Finally, we conduct a stability analysis and apply the proposed scheme in a generic wireless networks. We also present numerical results which corroborate our claim.
Detection of a sparse submatrix of a high-dimensional noisy matrix

We observe a $N\times M$ matrix $Y_{ij}=s_{ij}+\xi_{ij}$ with $\xi_{ij}\sim {\mathcal {N}}(0,1)$ i.i. d. in $i,j$, and $s_{ij}\in \mathbb {R}$. We test the null hypothesis $s_{ij}=0$ for all $i,j$ against the alternative that there exists some submatrix of size $n\times m$ with significant elements in the sense that $s_{ij}\ge a>0$. We propose a test procedure and compute the asymptotical detection boundary $a$ so that the maximal testing risk tends to 0 as $M\to\infty$, $N\to\infty$, $p=n/N\to0$, $q=m/M\to0$. We prove that this boundary is asymptotically sharp minimax under some additional constraints. Relations with other testing problems are discussed. We propose a testing procedure which adapts to unknown $(n,m)$ within some given set and compute the adaptive sharp rates. The implementation of our test procedure on synthetic data shows excellent behavior for sparse, not necessarily squared matrices. We extend our sharp minimax results in different directions: first, to Gaussian matrices with unknown variance, next, to matrices of random variables having a distribution from an exponential family (non-Gaussian) and, finally, to a two-sided alternative for matrices with Gaussian elements.
Bayesian multivariate mixed-scale density estimation

Although continuous density estimation has received abundant attention in the Bayesian nonparametrics literature, there is limited theory on multivariate mixed scale density estimation. In this note, we consider a general framework to jointly model continuous, count and categorical variables under a nonparametric prior, which is induced through rounding latent variables having an unknown density with respect to Lebesgue measure. For the proposed class of priors, we provide sufficient conditions for large support, strong consistency and rates of posterior contraction. These conditions allow one to convert sufficient conditions obtained in the setting of multivariate continuous density estimation to the mixed scale case. To illustrate the procedure a rounded multivariate nonparametric mixture of Gaussians is introduced and applied to a crime and communities dataset.