Track II interventions and the Kurdish Question in Turkey: an analysis using a theories of change approach

Abstract In October 2005, a small number of prominent members of the Turkish academy and NGO sector were brought to Sofia, Bulgaria for three days to discuss the Kurdish question in Turkey. Using the discussions from the workshop as a starting point, this article presents an argument regarding what type of Track II interventions make sense in Turkey, given the nature of the conflict there. To make this argument, the article draws on the concept of "theories of change. " This concept, developed initially in the monitoring and evaluation field, refers to the idea that any intervention in society, including Track II interventions, is informed by an implicit or explicit theory of change regarding how the project will produce the desired change in society. Four theories of change are described and then assessed in the context of a conflict analysis of the Kurdish Question in Turkey. The conclusion reached is that each of four theories of change are relevant to Track II projects in Turkey. However, each theory of change is only relevant to certain elements of the overall conflict. As a result, we argue that interventions based on each theory of change must be targeted at specific sectoral and geographic audiences in order to be effective. Introduction In October 2005, a small number of prominent members of the Turkish academy and NGO sector were brought to Sofia, Bulgaria for three days to discuss the Kurdish question in Turkey. (1) The group discussed various scenarios that described how the Kurdish question might evolve over the next 10-15 years. (2) On the final day of the workshop, a brainstorming session was held regarding what type of Track II interventions might help to bring about the more positive scenarios and avoid the more negative scenarios. Using the discussions from the workshop as a starting point, this article presents an argument regarding what type of Track II projects make sense in Turkey, given the nature of the conflict there. The goal is not to describe how to make specific Track II projects successful. Such specific advice on implementation can only be offered on a case-by-case basis. Instead, the goal is to define what types of projects should be attempted, that is, to identify the type of projects that if implemented successfully would have the greatest impact and the right kind of impact. Such an approach also helps answer the more theoretical question of how to have a positive impact given the parties to the conflict, the issues at hand, the timing of the intervention, and the desired outcomes. The article focuses on Track II interventions because certain structural features of Turkish society are in flux. In particular, as a result of the European Union (EU) process initiated in 2001 with acceptance of Turkey's candidacy to the EU, Turkey has begun to revise a whole range of policies (Martin et al., 2002: 123), many of which impact on the Kurdish Question (Martin et al., 2002: 123). This shift was crystallized in a speech given by Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan in August 2005 in which for the first time in the history of the Republic, he defined the "Kurdish Question" as a cultural issue and acknowledged past mistakes. Prior prime ministers had referred to the same issue, but their definitions were often vague and normally emphasized terrorism and underdevelopment. On the other side of the equation, many Kurdish leaders also see the European Union process as a means toward resolving the fundamental, structural issues driving the conflict with the Turkish state. Ahmet Turk, co-president of the pro-Kurdish Democratic Society Party (DTP), argues that, "In a democratic Turkey, Kurds would not tolerate armed resistance" (Sazak, 2005: 21, emphasis added). These developments indicate that timely Track II interventions could contribute to establishing a durable peace in Turkey. Where these types of structural changes are not occurring, as might be said about Chechnya for instance, Track II interventions have little chance of success. …