Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Evidence for Persistence and Long Memory Features in Mortality Data

It is important to understand the statistical features of mortality data if one is to accurately undertake mortality projection and forecasting when constructing life tables. The ability to accurately forecast mortality is a critical aspect for the study of demography, life insurance product design and pricing, pension planning and insurance based decision risk management. Though many stylised facts of mortality data have been discussed in the literature, we provide evidence for a novel statistical feature that is pervasive in mortality data at a national level that is as yet unexplored. In this regard we demonstrate in this work strong evidence for the existence of long memory features in mortality data. We argue that it is important to consider as incorporate of such features in models will improve the understanding of mortality and the accuracy of forecasts. To achieve this we first outline the way in which we choose to represent persistence of long memory from a estimator perspective. To achieve this, we make a natural link between a class of long memory feature and an attribute of stochastic processes based on fractional Brownian motion. This allows us to use well established estimators for the Hurst exponent to then robustly and accurately study the long memory features of mortality data. A series of synthetic studies are implemented to evaluate the performance of three different estimators under different data lengths, different long memory strengths, different missing value settings, different aggregation type and different quantization. All of which are common transformations used in studying national level mortality data. Then the dynamic of the long memory across genders, age groups, countries and time periods is further analysed using real data from a range of different countries to demonstrate overwhelming evidence for this statistical property of mortality data.
Where exactly do ground-foraging woodland birds forage? Foraging sites and microhabitat selection in temperate woodlands of southern Australia

Abstract Bird assemblages in woodlands of southern Australia are characterised by a high proportion of ground-foraging species, many of which are experiencing population declines. We examined the foraging sites of 13 species of ground-foraging birds, including four common species and nine declining species, in four study areas representing different woodland types. Microhabitat features were recorded within a 3-m radius of observed foraging points and compared with random points. Significant differences between foraging and random plots were detected for all but one species, clearly indicating selection for foraging habitat. However, levels of dissimilarity between foraging and random plots were low, suggesting that much of the woodland study area is suitable for foraging. Microhabitat features of particular importance for multiple species were a low density of trees and shrubs, a high cover of native herbs, and fallen timber on the ground. Sites amidst dense trees tended not to be used. Several species had more particular requirements, such as the Diamond Firetail (Stagonopleura guttata) for grass cover and the White-winged Chough (Corcorax melanorhamphos) for litter cover. There was no evidence that declining species showed a greater degree of selection or were more restricted in the availability of foraging microhabitats than common species. Several of the key attributes of preferred foraging sites, such as tree density, can be actively managed at the local scale. A heterogeneous ground layer is needed to provide suitable foraging habitat for the full suite of ground-foraging birds. Achieving suitable heterogeneity in present-day woodlands will require careful and active management of various disturbance processes.
Hidden Correlations: A Self-Exciting Tale from the FX World

The aim of this paper is to investigate the dependence between exchange rates and their volatility from the information synthesised into currency options quotes. To this purpose, we propose an affine stochastic volatility model with self-exciting structure under a timechanged pure jump Lévy framework. In particular, we construct a mechanism inducing dependence effects via systematic jumps. The performance analysis shows that this factor construction marginally improves the pricing of FX options in terms of calibration and fit of the implied volatility surface, indicating that this dependence is of moderate nature. Therefore, we have evidence to claim that there exists a mild correlation between exchange rates and their volatility.
Is Normal Backwardation Normal? Valuing Financial Futures with a Stochastic, Endogenous Index-Rate Covariance

Revisiting the two-factor valuation of financial futures contracts and their derivatives, we propose a new approach in which the covariance process between the underlying asset price and the money market interest rate is set endogenously according to investors' arbitrage operations. The asset-rate covariance turns out to be stochastic, thereby explicitly capturing futures contracts' marking-to-market feature. Our numerical simulations show significant deviations from the traditional cost-of-carry model of futures prices, in line with Cox, Ingersoll and Ross's (1981) theory and a large corpus of past empirical research. Our empirical tests show an impact of several index points magnitude from the recent US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes on the S&P 500 daily spot-futures basis, highlighting the effect of monetary policy at low frequencies on the backwardation vs. contango regime, and shedding new light on Keynes's (1930) theory of normal backwardation.
How Integrated are Regional Green Equity Markets? Evidence from a Cross-Quantilogram Approach

Rising concerns over climate change have increased investors’ and policymakers’ interests in environmentally friendly investments, which have led to the rapid expansion of the green equity market recently. Previous studies have focused on analyzing the green equity market at the aggregate level, thereby overlooking the heterogeneity across green equity sub-sectors. This paper contributes to the literature by investigating how interdependence between green equity markets and other financial assets varies across regions, market conditions, and investment horizons. To this end, the paper employs the recently developed cross-quantilogram framework, which measures the cross-quantile dependence across time series without any moment condition requirement. The results show that within the green equity market, movements in the U.S. market can predict movements in the Asian and European markets during all market conditions. In contrast, the Asian and European green equity markets only predict movements in the U.S. market during bearish periods. The paper also finds that regional green equity markets respond differently to movements in other financial assets, such as energy commodity and general stock returns. In addition, the interdependence among regional green equity and other assets varies across market conditions and investment horizons. These results have important implications for environmentally friendly investors and policymakers.
Current and Historical Extent of Phenotypic Variation in the Tufted and Black-crested Titmouse (Paridae) Hybrid Zone in the Southern Great Plains

Abstract Hybrid zones, where phenotypically distinct populations interbreed, should expand or contract until reaching a balance between selection and dispersal. Few studies examine multiple contacts within one species complex to compare how their extent changes over time. Black-crested and Tufted Titmice (Baeolophus atricristatus and B. bicolor) hybridize extensively within a narrow zone in Texas and southwestern Oklahoma. In Texas, hybridization has been occurring for several thousands of years, while evidence suggests the southwestern Oklahoma contact is more recent, beginning within the past century. We quantify plumage and morphology of the two species across both the younger and older hybrid zones and compare the current and historical extent of phenotypic variation in the older Texas contact with that in the younger Oklahoma contact. Variation in plumage between species is similar in the younger and older contacts, while overlap in morphological characters is broader in the older contact. Recently and historically surveyed transects in the older zone have similar cline widths, indicating selection, at least on crest and forehead plumage, has reached equilibrium with dispersal over the time periods involved (comparing both the historically surveyed data from 1955 vs. the recently surveyed data from the 2000s in Texas). In the recently surveyed younger Oklahoma contact, cline width is narrower, indicating potential for expansion if it follows the course of the older contact. This temporal complexity should make this species complex a productive system for future work, using plumage and additional traits such as song and genetics, on the relative influences of both natural and sexual selection on the evolution of reproductive isolation.
Superoxide Dismutase Activities in Senescing Apple Fruit (Malus domestica Borkh.)

Total superoxide dismutase (SOD:superoxide: superoxide oxidoreductase; EC 1.15.1.1) activity and individual activities of its three different metalloenzymes, CuZn-SOD, Fe-SOD, and Mn-SOD, were investigated during senescence of apples (Malus domestica Borkh.). Total SOD activity and relative activities of its three forms varied greatly among cultivars. Activities underwent considerable change during senescence of fruit, but changes were different among cultivars. Whether fruit senesced at 0 degrees C or 20 degrees C had little effect on SOD activities, and application of the antioxidant diphenylamine (DPA) did not alter activities. SOD activities increased with occurrence of the physiological disorder "senescent breakdown," but did not increase with occurrence of the disorder "superficial scald. " In a given apple cultivar, changes in total SOD activity generally paralleled activities of the different SOD forms. Such activity may reflect changes affecting food and nutritive quality of the fruit.
Variation in wood density, wood water content, stem growth and mortality among twenty-seven tree species in a tropical rainforest on Borneo Island

Interspecific variation among wood density (WD), wood water content (WWC), tree mortality and diameter at breast height (d.b.h.) increment was examined for 27 tree species (from 13 families), based on a 9-year interval data obtained from a permanent 1-ha forest plot setup for long-term studies of tree dynamics in Kuala Belong rainforest, Brunei, on Borneo Island.The species were also categorized into three adult stature groups of understorey (maximum height 15-20 m tall, n = 14), midcanopy (maximum height, 20-30 m tall, n = 8) and canopy/emergent (>maximum height, >30 m tall, n = 5) tree species. All measured traits varied appreciably among species.TreeWD varied between 0.3 and 0.8 g cm -3 , and exhibited the least coefficient of variation (14.7%). D.b. h. increment was low, averaging 1.05 (95% confidence limits: 0.57-2.13) mm year -1 and was attributed to predomi- nance of understorey species in the sampled plot. Overall, annual mortality was also low, averaging 2.73% per year. The three adult stature groups differed significantly in d.b. h. increment and WWC but not in tree mortality and WD.Across species and especially more so when phylogenetic effect is minimized,WD was negatively related to tree mortality and d.b. h. increment, while a positive trend was observed between d.b. h. increment and tree mortality. A negative trend was also detected between maximum plant height and WWC, which was interpreted as a consequence of increased evaporative demand and use of xylem stored water by taller trees in order to compensate for hydraulic limitations to water transport induced by frictional resistance. No doubt, the traits chosen may vary spatially, but the consistent interspecific patterns observed in this study among coexisting species of differing adult stature reflect 'vertical' niche differentiation and may help to explain population regulation in a multispecies ecosystem like tropical rainforest.
The postcranial skeletal anatomy of the carboniferous tetrapod Greererpeton burkemorani Romer, 1969

The discovery of well-preserved skeletal remains of Greererpeton burkemorani Romer, 1969, from the Upper Mississippian at Greer, West Virginia, has prompted a redescription of its postcranial skeletal anatomy. The vertebrae are rhachitomous, more specifically schizomerous. The presacral count is approximately 41. Neural arch elements of the atlas-axis complex consist of paired pro- and atlas arches and a relatively massive axis arch. All presacral vertebrae appear to have borne short, gently curved ribs, most of which developed a flange or stiletto-like uncinate process. The sacral rib is long. In adults, the scapulocoracoid and the dermal pectoral girdle are large and well ossified. The ascending iliac blade is undivided and the pubis is poorly ossified. A cladistic analysis indicates that Greererpeton burkemorani shares a more recent common ancestor with the anthracosaur Proterogyrinus scheelei than it does with either Crassigyrinus scoticus or Ichthyostega sp.
Effects of reducing anthelmintic input upon growth and faecal egg and larval counts in young farmed deer grazing chicory (Cichorium intybus) and perennial ryegrass (Lolium perenne)/white clover (Trifolium repens) pasture

A rotational grazing experiment using weaner deer was conducted at Palmerston North, New Zealand, during the autumn, winter and spring, to compare the voluntary feed intake (VFI), liveweight gain (LWG) and carcass production of deer grazing chicory with those grazing perennial ryegrass/white clover pasture. Deer were either treated with anthelmintic at 3-weekly intervals (T) or anthelmintic was withheld until trigger-treatment (TT) criteria were attained. Pure red and 0·75 red: 0·25 elk hybrid stags and hinds were given forage allowances of 5 kg DM/deer/day in autumn and early-mid winter, 6 kg DM/deer/day in late winter and 7 kg DM/deer/day in spring. Deer grazed chicory or pasture in autumn and spring, with all deer combined on pasture during winter when chicory was dormant. Organic matter digestibility of diet selected was greater for chicory than for pasture in both autumn and spring. Anthelmintic-treated deer grazing pasture in autumn had significantly higher VFI and LWG, contributing to higher carcass weights, than TT deer. Anthelmintic treatment had no effect on these measures for deer grazing chicory in autumn. Clinical signs of lungworm infection were evident in pasture TT deer during autumn and winter, and in chicory TT deer grazing pasture during winter. Faecal egg counts (FEC) were significantly greater for pasture TT deer during autumn and early winter than all other groups. Faecal lungworm larval counts (FLC) were significantly greater for chicory TT deer following transfer to pasture, than for all other groups in early winter, although both FEC and FLC were low. Faecal larval counts were poorly related to clinical signs of lungworm infection during autumn, but were a better guide in winter. Plasma pepsinogen concentrations appeared unrelated to gastrointestinal parasite infection. Trigger-treated deer grazing pasture required five anthelmintic treatments during autumn and winter. The chicory TT group required no anthelmintic treatment when grazing chicory during autumn, but required two treatments after transfer from chicory to pasture during winter. There was no effect of anthelmintic regime on VFI and LWG in spring, and LWG was greater for deer grazing chicory than those grazing pasture. Hybrid deer had greater spring LWG and carcass weights than red deer when grazing chicory, but similar LWG and carcass weights when grazing pasture. It was concluded that grazing chicory offers the potential for reducing anthelmintic use in farmed weaner deer, particularly during autumn.
Is Experimentation Invariant to Group Size? A Laboratory Analysis of Innovation Contests

This paper uses a laboratory experiment to investigate the role of group size in an innovation contest. Subjects compete in a discrete time innovation contest, based on Halac, Kartik, and Liu (2017), where subjects, at the start of each period, are informed of the aggregate number of innovation attempts. I compare two innovation contests, a two-person and four-person contest, that only differ by contest size and have the same probability of obtaining an innovation in equilibrium. The four-person contest results in more innovations and induces more aggregate innovation attempts than the two-person contest. However, there is some evidence that the two-person contest induces more innovation attempts from an individual than the four-person contest. Subjects’ behavior is consistent with subjects placing more weight on their own failed innovation attempts, when updating their beliefs, than their competitors’ failed innovation attempts.
Organized Crime and Firms’ Financial Statements: Evidence from Criminal Investigations in Italy

We investigate how connections to organized crime manifest on firms’ financial statements and analyze the impact of these connections on firm performance outcomes. Using a unique dataset that identifies Italian firms connected to organized crime, we find that connected firms have lower profitability, even though they report higher sales and lower labor cost. Connected firms also have higher bank debt, report lower cash holdings, experience quicker operating cycles, and are more likely to file for bankruptcy. Further, we find that connected firms are more tax aggressive and engage in downward earnings manipulation. To corroborate our results, we exploit an amendment to the Italian Anti-Money Laundering regulation as a shock to the extent to which criminal organizations could expropriate connected firms’ resources through money laundering. Our collective evidence suggests that connections to organized crime can drain a firm’s resources, possibly through money-laundering schemes, and jeopardize its existence, thereby harming its shareholders.
Environmental and genetic variation in body condition and blood profile of great tit Parus major nestlings

Health state parameters in natural populations can be used as bioindicators of environmental health if they respond to environmental cues. We studied to which extent health state parameters (morphological, biochemical, and haematological) were determined by the environment in which nestling birds were reared or by their genotype, using a cross-fostering experiment in great tits Parus major. Morphological parameters and plasma protein, had a higher environmental than genetic component of variance which could be related with food availability differing between rearing nests. Glutathione peroxidase, an enzyme involved in antioxidant protection, also had a relatively high environmental component of variance, suggesting that nestlings in different rearing nests were exposed to different degrees of oxidative stress. Plasma cholinesterases were more influenced by the birds’ genotype than by the rearing environment. The parameters with the lowest residual variance and the highest environmental component of variance such as glutathione peroxidase, plasma protein and morphological parameters (tarsus length and weight) would be more adequate as bioindicators.
The Scope of Political Redistribution with Income Taxation

This paper investigates the politicians' incentives to pursue income redistribution when governments are constrained to levy taxes on labor income and this creates distortions. Politicians who strive to be elected may strategically redistribute through in-kind rather than cash transfers and overprovide consumption of goods. I show that the overprovision of in-kind transfers reduces the disincentive effects of taxation in labor effort and enlarges the pool of resources for political redistribution. As a result, politicians are able to implement larger redistributive transfers and improve the well-being of swing voters. Hence, electoral competition for pivotal voters provides politicians incentives to implement redistributive schedules that reduce distortions in labor markets and improve the efficiency of the taxation system.
Resposta de plantas de alho livres de vírus ao nitrogênio em ambiente protegido

Nitrogen fertilization associated to the utilization of bulb free of virus enhances garlic yield and quality and it can incentive growers to invest in the crop whereas it allows a better economic return. The aim of this research was to evaluate the relative chlorophyll index (RCI), plant nutrition and total and commercial garlic yield and verify the correlation among these variables in relation to nitrogen fertilization. The experiment was carried out under greenhouse from May to September 2006. The experimental design consisted of randomized blocks with six replications. The treatments were application of crescent levels of nitrogen corresponding to 0, 20, 40, 80, 160, and 320 kg N ha-1. The N source was ammonium nitrate; 25% of the dose was applied when plants presented 3 or 4 leaves, 25% when plants presented 5 or 6 leaves, and 50% after the differentiation. The application of crescent levels of nitrogen proportioned higher relative chlorophyll index (RCI), increased the N content and reduced P and K content in leaves, enhanced total and commercial yield without secondary growth.
Industry Expertise, Information Leakage, and the Choice of M&A Advisors

This paper examines the impacts of M&A advisors’ industry expertise on firms’ choice of advisors in mergers and acquisitions. We show that an investment bank's expertise in merger parties’ industries increases its likelihood of being chosen as an advisor, especially when the acquisition is more complex, and when a firm in M&A has less information about the merger counterparty. However, due to the concerns about information leakage to industry rivals through M&A advisors, acquirers are reluctant to share advisors with rival firms in the same industry, and they are more likely to switch to new advisors if their former advisors have advisory relationship with their industry rivals. In addition, we document that advisors with more industry expertise earn higher advisory fees and increase the likelihood of deal completion.
Cheap TIPS or Expensive Inflation Swaps? Mispricing in Real Asset Markets

Inflation risks are explicit in either (i) the nominal pricing of real payoffs in which prices are denominated in dollars, or (ii) the real pricing of nominal payoffs in which prices are denominated in consumption baskets. While the former involves over-the-counter inflation-indexed contracts of real asset market, the latter involves exchange-traded and highly liquid contracts of nominal asset market. We employ a parametric pricing model to investigate the asymmetry between these two markets. The model obtains a liquidity-free distribution of future inflation using new price data of T-note futures in nominal asset market, and implies liquidity risk premia separately for any traded contract in real asset market. These premia indicate both an underpricing for TIPS and an overpricing for inflation swaps, whose significances increase with the tenor of these assets. Such a mispricing in inflation swaps help temper a severe implied mispricing of TIPS needed to match the puzzling trade profit on the nominal-TIPS yield spread. While yields on TIPS still command a liquidity component, this finding implicates less pronounced borrowing costs to the U.S. government in issuing TIPS.