Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Direction Augmentation in the Evaluation of Armed Conflict Predictions

Abstract In many forecasting settings, there is a specific interest in predicting the sign of an outcome variable correctly in addition to its magnitude. For instance, when forecasting armed conflicts, positive and negative log-changes in monthly fatalities represent escalation and de-escalation, respectively, and have very different implications. In the ViEWS forecasting challenge, a prediction competition on state-based violence, a novel evaluation score called targeted absolute deviation with direction augmentation (TADDA) has therefore been suggested, which accounts for both for the sign and magnitude of log-changes. While it has a straightforward intuitive motivation, the empirical results of the challenge show that a no-change model always predicting a log-change of zero outperforms all submitted forecasting models under the TADDA score. We provide a statistical explanation for this phenomenon. Analyzing the properties of TADDA, we find that in order to achieve good scores, forecasters often have an incentive to predict no or only modest log-changes. In particular, there is often an incentive to report conservative point predictions considerably closer to zero than the forecaster’s actual predictive median or mean. In an empirical application, we demonstrate that a no-change model can be improved upon by tailoring predictions to the particularities of the TADDA score. We conclude by outlining some alternative scoring concepts.
Pedestrian wayfinding behavior in a multi-story building: a comprehensive modeling study featuring route choice, wayfinding performance, and observation behavior

This paper proposes a comprehensive approach for modeling pedestrian wayfinding behavior in complex buildings. This study employs two types of discrete choice models (i.e., MNL and PSL) featuring pedestrian route choice behavior, and three multivariate linear regression (MLR) models featuring the overall wayfinding performance and observation behavior (e.g., hesitation behavior and head rotation). Behavioral and questionnaire data featuring pedestrian wayfinding behavior and personal information were collected using a Virtual Reality experiment. Four wayfinding tasks were designed to determine how personal, infrastructure, and route characteristics affect indoor pedestrian wayfinding behavior on three levels, including route choice, wayfinding performance, and observation behavior. We find that pedestrian route choice behavior is primarily influenced by route characteristics, whereas wayfinding performance is also influenced by personal characteristics. Observation behavior is mainly influenced by task complexity, personal characteristics, and local properties of the routes that offer route information. To the best of our knowledge, this work represents the first attempt to investigate the impact of the same comprehensive set of variables on various metrics feature wayfinding behavior simultaneously.
ComGAN: Toward GANs Exploiting Multiple Samples

In this paper, we propose ComGAN(ComparativeGAN) which allows the generator in GANs to refer to the semantics of comparative samples(e.g. real data) by comparison. ComGAN generalizes relativistic GANs by using arbitrary architecture and mostly outperforms relativistic GANs in simple input-concatenation architecture. To train the discriminator in ComGAN, we also propose equality regularization, which fits the discriminator to a neutral label for equally real or fake samples. Equality regularization highly boosts the performance of ComGAN including WGAN while being exceptionally simple compared to existing regularizations. Finally, we generalize comparative samples fixed to real data in relativistic GANs toward fake data and show that such objectives are sound in both theory and practice. Our experiments demonstrate superior performances of ComGAN and equality regularization, achieving the best FIDs in 7 out of 8 cases of different losses and data against ordinary GANs and relativistic GANs.
GEOMETRY AND CHARACTERISTICS OF THE HELIOSHEATH REVEALED IN THE FIRST FIVE YEARS OF INTERSTELLAR BOUNDARY EXPLORER OBSERVATIONS

We investigate and interpret the geometry and characteristics of the inner heliosheath (IHS) plasma and their impact on the heliotail structure as observed in energetic neutral atom (ENA) maps acquired during the first 5 yr of Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX) observations. In particular, IBEX observations of the heliotail reveal distinct, localized emission features (lobes) that provide a rich set of information about the properties and evolution of the heliosheath plasma downstream of the termination shock (TS). We analyze the geometry of the heliotail lobes and find that the plane intersecting the port and starboard heliotail lobe centers is ∼6° from the solar equatorial plane, and the plane intersecting the north and south heliotail lobe centers is ∼90° from the solar equatorial plane, both indicating strong correlation with the fast–slow solar wind asymmetry, and thus reflecting the structure of the IHS flow around the Sun. We also analyze the key parameters and processes that form and shape the port and starboard lobes, which are distinctly different from the north and south lobes. By comparing IBEX ENA observations with results from a simplistic flow model of the heliosphere and a multicomponent description for pickup ions (PUIs) in the IHS, we find that the port and starboard lobe formation is driven by a thin IHS, large nose–tail asymmetry of the distance to the TS (and consequently, a large nose–tail asymmetry of the relative abundance of PUIs at the TS) and the energy-dependent removal of PUIs by charge exchange in the IHS.
Ideal solutions in the Prouhet-Tarry-Escott problem

For given positive integers $m$ and $n$ with $m<n$, the Prouhet-Tarry-Escott problem asks if there exist two disjoint multisets of integers of size $n$ having identical $k$th moments for $1\leq k\leq m$; in the ideal case one requires $m=n-1$, which is maximal. We describe some searches for ideal solutions to the Prouhet-Tarry-Escott problem, especially solutions possessing a particular symmetry, both over $\mathbb{Z}$ and over the ring of integers of several imaginary quadratic number fields. Over $\mathbb{Z}$, we significantly extend searches for symmetric ideal solutions at sizes $9$, $10$, $11$, and $12$, and we conduct extensive searches for the first time at larger sizes up to $16$. For the quadratic number field case, we find new ideal solutions of sizes $10$ and $12$ in the Gaussian integers, of size $9$ in $\mathbb{Z}[i\sqrt{2}]$, and of sizes $9$ and $12$ in the Eisenstein integers.
Birth of baby universes from gravitational collapse in a modified-gravity scenario

We consider equilibrium models of spherical boson stars in Palatini f(ℛ) = ℛ + ξℛ2 gravity and study their collapse when perturbed. The Einstein-Klein-Gordon system is solved using a recently established correspondence in an Einstein frame representation. We find that, in that frame, the endpoint is a nonrotating black hole surrounded by a quasi-stationary cloud of scalar field. However, the dynamics in the f(ℛ) frame is dramatically different. The innermost region of the collapsing object exhibits the formation of a finite-size, exponentially-expanding baby universe connected with the outer (parent) universe via a minimal area surface (a throat or umbilical cord). Our simulations indicate that this surface is at all times hidden inside a horizon, causally disconnecting the baby universe from observers above the horizon. The implications of our findings in other areas of gravitational physics are also discussed.
SLAP: Spatial-Language Attention Policies

Despite great strides in language-guided manipulation, existing work has been constrained to table-top settings. Table-tops allow for perfect and consistent camera angles, properties are that do not hold in mobile manipulation. Task plans that involve moving around the environment must be robust to egocentric views and changes in the plane and angle of grasp. A further challenge is ensuring this is all true while still being able to learn skills efficiently from limited data. We propose Spatial-Language Attention Policies (SLAP) as a solution. SLAP uses three-dimensional tokens as the input representation to train a single multi-task, language-conditioned action prediction policy. Our method shows an 80% success rate in the real world across eight tasks with a single model, and a 47.5% success rate when unseen clutter and unseen object configurations are introduced, even with only a handful of examples per task. This represents an improvement of 30% over prior work (20% given unseen distractors and configurations). We see a 4x improvement over baseline in mobile manipulation setting. In addition, we show how SLAPs robustness allows us to execute Task Plans from open-vocabulary instructions using a large language model for multi-step mobile manipulation. For videos, see the website: https://robotslap.github. io
Who's the Best Detective? LLMs vs. MLs in Detecting Incoherent Fourth Grade Math Answers

Written answers to open-ended questions can have a higher long-term effect on learning than multiple-choice questions. However, it is critical that teachers immediately review the answers, and ask to redo those that are incoherent. This can be a difficult task and can be time-consuming for teachers. A possible solution is to automate the detection of incoherent answers. One option is to automate the review with Large Language Models (LLM). In this paper, we analyze the responses of fourth graders in mathematics using three LLMs: GPT-3, BLOOM, and YOU. We used them with zero, one, two, three and four shots. We compared their performance with the results of various classifiers trained with Machine Learning (ML). We found that LLMs perform worse than MLs in detecting incoherent answers. The difficulty seems to reside in recursive questions that contain both questions and answers, and in responses from students with typical fourth-grader misspellings. Upon closer examination, we have found that the ChatGPT model faces the same challenges.
Context Sensitivity without Contexts: A Cut-Shortcut Approach to Fast and Precise Pointer Analysis

Over the past decades, context sensitivity has been considered as one of the most effective ideas for improving the precision of pointer analysis for Java. Different from the extremely fast context-insensitivity approach, context sensitivity requires every program method to be analyzed under different contexts for separating the static abstractions of different dynamic instantiations of the method’s variables and heap objects, and thus reducing spurious object flows introduced by method calls. However, despite great precision benefits, as each method is equivalently cloned and analyzed under each context, context sensitivity brings heavy efficiency costs. Recently, numerous selective context-sensitive approaches have been put forth for scaling pointer analysis to large and complex Java programs by applying contexts only to the selected methods while analyzing the remaining ones context-insensitively; however, because the selective approaches do not fundamentally alter the primary methodology of context sensitivity (and do not thus remove its efficiency bottleneck), they produce much improved but still limited results. In this work, we present a fundamentally different approach called Cut-Shortcut for fast and precise pointer analysis for Java. Its insight is simple: the main effect of cloning methods under different contexts is to filter spurious object flows that have been merged inside a callee method; from the view of a typical pointer flow graph (PFG), such effect can be simulated by cutting off (Cut) the edges that introduce precision loss to certain pointers and adding Shortcut edges directly from source pointers to the target ones circumventing the method on PFG. As a result, we can achieve the effect of context sensitivity without contexts. We identify three general program patterns and develop algorithms based on them to safely cut off and add shortcut edges on PFG, formalize them and formally prove the soundness. To comprehensively validate Cut-Shortcut’s effectiveness, we implement two versions of Cut-Shortcut for two state-of-the-art pointer analysis frameworks for Java, one in Datalog for the declarative Doop and the other in Java for the imperative Tai-e, and we consider all the large and complex programs used in recent literatures that meet the experimental requirements. The evaluation results are extremely promising: Cut-Shortcut is even able to run faster than context insensitivity for most evaluated programs while obtaining high precision that is comparable to context sensitivity (if scalable) in both frameworks. This is for the first time that we have been able to achieve such a good efficiency and precision trade-off for those hard-to-analyze programs, and we hope Cut-Shortcut could offer new perspectives for developing more effective pointer analysis for Java in the future.
SAILER: Structure-aware Pre-trained Language Model for Legal Case Retrieval

Legal case retrieval, which aims to find relevant cases for a query case, plays a core role in the intelligent legal system. Despite the success that pre-training has achieved in ad-hoc retrieval tasks, effective pre-training strategies for legal case retrieval remain to be explored. Compared with general documents, legal case documents are typically long text sequences with intrinsic logical structures. However, most existing language models have difficulty understanding the long-distance dependencies between different structures. Moreover, in contrast to the general retrieval, the relevance in the legal domain is sensitive to key legal elements. Even subtle differences in key legal elements can significantly affect the judgement of relevance. However, existing pre-trained language models designed for general purposes have not been equipped to handle legal elements. To address these issues, in this paper, we propose SAILER, a new Structure-Aware pre-traIned language model for LEgal case Retrieval. It is highlighted in the following three aspects: (1) SAILER fully utilizes the structural information contained in legal case documents and pays more attention to key legal elements, similar to how legal experts browse legal case documents. (2) SAILER employs an asymmetric encoder-decoder architecture to integrate several different pre-training objectives. In this way, rich semantic information across tasks is encoded into dense vectors. (3) SAILER has powerful discriminative ability, even without any legal annotation data. It can distinguish legal cases with different charges accurately. Extensive experiments over publicly available legal benchmarks demonstrate that our approach can significantly outperform previous state-of-the-art methods in legal case retrieval.
A Cookbook of Self-Supervised Learning

Self-supervised learning, dubbed the dark matter of intelligence, is a promising path to advance machine learning. Yet, much like cooking, training SSL methods is a delicate art with a high barrier to entry. While many components are familiar, successfully training a SSL method involves a dizzying set of choices from the pretext tasks to training hyper-parameters. Our goal is to lower the barrier to entry into SSL research by laying the foundations and latest SSL recipes in the style of a cookbook. We hope to empower the curious researcher to navigate the terrain of methods, understand the role of the various knobs, and gain the know-how required to explore how delicious SSL can be.
Hierarchical Diffusion Autoencoders and Disentangled Image Manipulation

Diffusion models have attained impressive visual quality for image synthesis. However, how to interpret and manipulate the latent space of diffusion models has not been extensively explored. Prior work diffusion autoencoders encode the semantic representations into a semantic latent code, which fails to reflect the rich information of details and the intrinsic feature hierarchy. To mitigate those limitations, we propose Hierarchical Diffusion Autoencoders (HDAE) that exploit the fine-grained-to-abstract and lowlevel-to-high-level feature hierarchy for the latent space of diffusion models. The hierarchical latent space of HDAE inherently encodes different abstract levels of semantics and provides more comprehensive semantic representations. In addition, we propose a truncated-feature-based approach for disentangled image manipulation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our proposed approach with extensive experiments and applications on image reconstruction, style mixing, controllable interpolation, detail-preserving and disentangled image manipulation, and multi-modal semantic image synthesis.
Boosting Theory-of-Mind Performance in Large Language Models via Prompting

Large language models (LLMs) excel in many tasks in 2023, but they still face challenges in complex reasoning. Theory-of-mind (ToM) tasks, which require understanding agents' beliefs, goals, and mental states, are essential for common-sense reasoning involving humans, making it crucial to enhance LLM performance in this area. This study measures the ToM performance of GPT-4 and three GPT-3.5 variants (Davinci-2, Davinci-3, GPT-3.5-Turbo), and investigates the effectiveness of in-context learning in improving their ToM comprehension. We evaluated prompts featuring two-shot chain of thought reasoning and step-by-step thinking instructions. We found that LLMs trained with Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF) (all models excluding Davinci-2) improved their ToM accuracy via in-context learning. GPT-4 performed best in zero-shot settings, reaching nearly 80% ToM accuracy, but still fell short of the 87% human accuracy on the test set. However, when supplied with prompts for in-context learning, all RLHF-trained LLMs exceeded 80% ToM accuracy, with GPT-4 reaching 100%. These results demonstrate that appropriate prompting enhances LLM ToM reasoning, and they underscore the context-dependent nature of LLM cognitive capacities.
Hierarchical Weight Averaging for Deep Neural Networks

Despite simplicity, stochastic gradient descent (SGD)-like algorithms are successful in training deep neural networks (DNNs). Among various attempts to improve SGD, weight averaging (WA), which averages the weights of multiple models, has recently received much attention in the literature. Broadly, WA falls into two categories: 1) online WA, which averages the weights of multiple models trained in parallel, is designed for reducing the gradient communication overhead of parallel mini-batch SGD and 2) offline WA, which averages the weights of one model at different checkpoints, is typically used to improve the generalization ability of DNNs. Though online and offline WA are similar in form, they are seldom associated with each other. Besides, these methods typically perform either offline parameter averaging or online parameter averaging, but not both. In this work, we first attempt to incorporate online and offline WA into a general training framework termed hierarchical WA (HWA). By leveraging both the online and offline averaging manners, HWA is able to achieve both faster convergence speed and superior generalization performance without any fancy learning rate adjustment. Besides, we also analyze the issues faced by the existing WA methods, and how our HWA addresses them, empirically. Finally, extensive experiments verify that HWA outperforms the state-of-the-art methods significantly.
Dehazing-NeRF: Neural Radiance Fields from Hazy Images

Neural Radiance Field (NeRF) has received much attention in recent years due to the impressively high quality in 3D scene reconstruction and novel view synthesis. However, image degradation caused by the scattering of atmospheric light and object light by particles in the atmosphere can significantly decrease the reconstruction quality when shooting scenes in hazy conditions. To address this issue, we propose Dehazing-NeRF, a method that can recover clear NeRF from hazy image inputs. Our method simulates the physical imaging process of hazy images using an atmospheric scattering model, and jointly learns the atmospheric scattering model and a clean NeRF model for both image dehazing and novel view synthesis. Different from previous approaches, Dehazing-NeRF is an unsupervised method with only hazy images as the input, and also does not rely on hand-designed dehazing priors. By jointly combining the depth estimated from the NeRF 3D scene with the atmospheric scattering model, our proposed model breaks through the ill-posed problem of single-image dehazing while maintaining geometric consistency. Besides, to alleviate the degradation of image quality caused by information loss, soft margin consistency regularization, as well as atmospheric consistency and contrast discriminative loss, are addressed during the model training process. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method outperforms the simple combination of single-image dehazing and NeRF on both image dehazing and novel view image synthesis.
Particle MCMC in Forecasting Frailty-Correlated Default Models with Expert Opinion

Predicting corporate default risk has long been a crucial topic in the finance field, as bankruptcies impose enormous costs on market participants as well as the economy as a whole. This paper aims to forecast frailty-correlated default models with subjective judgements on a sample of U.S. public non-financial firms spanning January 1980–June 2019. We consider a reduced-form model and adopt a Bayesian approach coupled with the Particle Markov Chain Monte Carlo (Particle MCMC) algorithm to scrutinize this problem. The findings show that the 1-year prediction for frailty-correlated default models with different prior distributions is relatively good, whereas the prediction accuracy ratios for frailty-correlated default models with non-informative and subjective prior distributions over various prediction horizons are not significantly different.
Read-once machines and the thermodynamic complexity of Maxwell's demons

The thermodynamical costs imposed by computational resource limitations like memory and time have been investigated before. We focus on a new computational limitation, namely, the machine being allowed to scan the input only once, and prove that it is associated with unavoidable thermodynamical cost, even in the presence of infinite time and memory resources. We identify this limitation to be the one suffered by Maxwell's demons. This provides a framework for quantifying the complexity associated with an experiment that effectuates a"decrease"in the entropy of a thermodynamic system.
On input and Langlands parameters for epipelagic representations

A paper of Reeder–Yu [J. Amer. Math. Soc. 27 (2014), pp. 437–477] gives a construction of epipelagic supercuspidal representations of p p -adic groups. The input for this construction is a pair ( λ , χ ) (\lambda , \chi ) where λ \lambda is a stable vector in a certain representation coming from a Moy–Prasad filtration, and χ \chi is a character of the additive group of the residue field. We say two such pairs are equivalent if the resulting supercuspidal representations are isomorphic. In this paper we describe the equivalence classes of such pairs. As an application, we give a classification of the simple supercuspidal representations for split adjoint groups. Finally, under an assumption about unramified base change, we describe properties of the Langlands parameters associated to these simple supercuspidals, showing that they have trivial L-functions and minimal Swan conductors, and showing that each of these simple supercuspidals lies in a singleton L-packet.