Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Mortality Rate Estimation and Standardization for Public Reporting: Medicare’s Hospital Compare

ABSTRACT Bayesian models are increasingly fit to large administrative datasets and then used to make individualized recommendations. In particular, Medicare’s Hospital Compare webpage provides information to patients about specific hospital mortality rates for a heart attack or acute myocardial infarction (AMI). Hospital Compare’s current recommendations are based on a random-effects logit model with a random hospital indicator and patient risk factors. Except for the largest hospitals, these individual recommendations or predictions are not checkable against data, because data from smaller hospitals are too limited to provide a meaningful check. Before individualized Bayesian recommendations, people derived general advice from empirical studies of many hospitals, for example, prefer hospitals of Type 1 to Type 2 because the risk is lower at Type 1 hospitals. Here, we calibrate these Bayesian recommendation systems by checking, out of sample, whether their predictions aggregate to give correct general advice derived from another sample. This process of calibrating individualized predictions against general empirical advice leads to substantial revisions in the Hospital Compare model for AMI mortality. To make appropriately calibrated predictions, our revised models incorporate information about hospital volume, nursing staff, medical residents, and the hospital’s ability to perform cardiovascular procedures. For the ultimate purpose of comparisons, hospital mortality rates must be standardized to adjust for patient mix variation across hospitals. We find that indirect standardization, as currently used by Hospital Compare, fails to adequately control for differences in patient risk factors and systematically underestimates mortality rates at the low volume hospitals. To provide good control and correctly calibrated rates, we propose direct standardization instead. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.
PAC-Bayesian bounds for Principal Component Analysis in Hilbert spaces

Based on some new robust estimators of the covariance matrix, we propose stable versions of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and we qualify it independently of the dimension of the ambient space. We first provide a robust estimator of the orthogonal projector on the largest eigenvectors of the covariance matrix. The behavior of such an estimator is related to the size of the gap in the spectrum of the covariance matrix and in particular a large gap is needed in order to get a good approximation. To avoid the assumption of a large eigengap in the spectrum of the covariance matrix we propose a robust version of PCA that consists in performing a smooth cut-off of the spectrum via a Lipschitz function. We provide bounds on the approximation error in terms of the operator norm and of the Frobenius norm.
Multiresolution Network Models

ABSTRACT Many existing statistical and machine learning tools for social network analysis focus on a single level of analysis. Methods designed for clustering optimize a global partition of the graph, whereas projection-based approaches (e.g., the latent space model in the statistics literature) represent in rich detail the roles of individuals. Many pertinent questions in sociology and economics, however, span multiple scales of analysis. Further, many questions involve comparisons across disconnected graphs that will, inevitably be of different sizes, either due to missing data or the inherent heterogeneity in real-world networks. We propose a class of network models that represent network structure on multiple scales and facilitate comparison across graphs with different numbers of individuals. These models differentially invest modeling effort within subgraphs of high density, often termed communities, while maintaining a parsimonious structure between said subgraphs. We show that our model class is projective, highlighting an ongoing discussion in the social network modeling literature on the dependence of inference paradigms on the size of the observed graph. We illustrate the utility of our method using data on household relations from Karnataka, India. Supplementary material for this article is available online.
Adversarial Examples, Uncertainty, and Transfer Testing Robustness in Gaussian Process Hybrid Deep Networks

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have excellent representative power and are state of the art classifiers on many tasks. However, they often do not capture their own uncertainties well making them less robust in the real world as they overconfidently extrapolate and do not notice domain shift. Gaussian processes (GPs) with RBF kernels on the other hand have better calibrated uncertainties and do not overconfidently extrapolate far from data in their training set. However, GPs have poor representational power and do not perform as well as DNNs on complex domains. In this paper we show that GP hybrid deep networks, GPDNNs, (GPs on top of DNNs and trained end-to-end) inherit the nice properties of both GPs and DNNs and are much more robust to adversarial examples. When extrapolating to adversarial examples and testing in domain shift settings, GPDNNs frequently output high entropy class probabilities corresponding to essentially "don't know". GPDNNs are therefore promising as deep architectures that know when they don't know.
On the Pitfalls of Nested Monte Carlo

There is an increasing interest in estimating expectations outside of the classical inference framework, such as for models expressed as probabilistic programs. Many of these contexts call for some form of nested inference to be applied. In this paper, we analyse the behaviour of nested Monte Carlo (NMC) schemes, for which classical convergence proofs are insufficient. We give conditions under which NMC will converge, establish a rate of convergence, and provide empirical data that suggests that this rate is observable in practice. Finally, we prove that general-purpose nested inference schemes are inherently biased. Our results serve to warn of the dangers associated with naive composition of inference and models.
Two-sample testing in non-sparse high-dimensional linear models

In analyzing high-dimensional models, sparsity of the model parameter is a common but often undesirable assumption. In this paper, we study the following two-sample testing problem: given two samples generated by two high-dimensional linear models, we aim to test whether the regression coefficients of the two linear models are identical. We propose a framework named TIERS (short for TestIng Equality of Regression Slopes), which solves the two-sample testing problem without making any assumptions on the sparsity of the regression parameters. TIERS builds a new model by convolving the two samples in such a way that the original hypothesis translates into a new moment condition. A self-normalization construction is then developed to form a moment test. We provide rigorous theory for the developed framework. Under very weak conditions of the feature covariance, we show that the accuracy of the proposed test in controlling Type I errors is robust both to the lack of sparsity in the features and to the heavy tails in the error distribution, even when the sample size is much smaller than the feature dimension. Moreover, we discuss minimax optimality and efficiency properties of the proposed test. Simulation analysis demonstrates excellent finite-sample performance of our test. In deriving the test, we also develop tools that are of independent interest. The test is built upon a novel estimator, called Auto-aDaptive Dantzig Selector (ADDS), which not only automatically chooses an appropriate scale of the error term but also incorporates prior information. To effectively approximate the critical value of the test statistic, we develop a novel high-dimensional plug-in approach that complements the recent advances in Gaussian approximation theory.
Prediction error of cross-validated Lasso

In spite of the wealth of literature on the theoretical properties of the Lasso, there is very little known when the value of the tuning parameter is chosen using the data, even though this is what actually happens in practice. We give a general upper bound on the prediction error of Lasso when the tuning parameter is chosen using a variant of 2-fold cross-validation. No special assumption is made about the structure of the design matrix, and the tuning parameter is allowed to be optimized over an arbitrary data-dependent set of values. The proof is based on a general principle that may extend to other kinds of cross-validation as well as to other penalized regression methods. Based on this result, we propose a new estimate for error variance in high dimensional regression and prove that it has good properties under minimal assumptions.
Continuous-discrete smoothing of diffusions

Suppose X is a multivariate diffusion process that is observed discretely in time. At each observation time, a linear transformation of the state of the process is observed with noise. The smoothing problem consists of recovering the path of the process, consistent with the observations. We derive a novel Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to sample from the exact smoothing distribution. The resulting algorithm is called the Backward Filtering Forward Guiding (BFFG) algorithm. We extend the algorithm to include parameter estimation. The proposed method relies on guided proposals introduced in Schauer et al. (2017). We illustrate its efficiency in a number of challenging problems.
On structure, family and parameter estimation of hierarchical Archimedean copulas

ABSTRACT Research on structure determination and parameter estimation of hierarchical Archimedean copulas (HACs) has so far mostly focused on the case in which all appearing Archimedean copulas belong to the same Archimedean family. The present work addresses this issue and proposes a new approach for estimating HACs that involve different Archimedean families. It is based on employing goodness-of-fit test statistics directly into HAC estimation. The approach is summarized in a simple algorithm, its theoretical justification is given and its applicability is illustrated by several experiments, which include estimation of HACs involving up to five different Archimedean families.
Prediction error after model search

Estimation of the prediction error of a linear estimation rule is difficult if the data analyst also use data to select a set of variables and construct the estimation rule using only the selected variables. In this work, we propose an asymptotically unbiased estimator for the prediction error after model search. Under some additional mild assumptions, we show that our estimator converges to the true prediction error in $L^2$ at the rate of $O(n^{-1/2})$, with $n$ being the number of data points. Our estimator applies to general selection procedures, not requiring analytical forms for the selection. The number of variables to select from can grow as an exponential factor of $n$, allowing applications in high-dimensional data. It also allows model misspecifications, not requiring linear underlying models. One application of our method is that it provides an estimator for the degrees of freedom for many discontinuous estimation rules like best subset selection or relaxed Lasso. Connection to Stein's Unbiased Risk Estimator is discussed. We consider in-sample prediction errors in this work, with some extension to out-of-sample errors in low dimensional, linear models. Examples such as best subset selection and relaxed Lasso are considered in simulations, where our estimator outperforms both $C_p$ and cross validation in various settings.
Efficient Thresholded Correlation using Truncated Singular Value Decomposition

Efficiently computing a subset of a correlation matrix consisting of values above a specified threshold is important to many practical applications. Real-world problems in genomics, machine learning, finance other applications can produce correlation matrices too large to explicitly form and tractably compute. Often, only values corresponding to highly-correlated vectors are of interest, and those values typically make up a small fraction of the overall correlation matrix. We present a method based on the singular value decomposition (SVD) and its relationship to the data covariance structure that can efficiently compute thresholded subsets of very large correlation matrices.
LOG-NORMAL DISTRIBUTION OF COSMIC VOIDS IN SIMULATIONS AND MOCKS

Following up on previous studies, we complete here a full analysis of the void size distributions of the Cosmic Void Catalog based on three different simulation and mock catalogs: dark matter (DM), haloes, and galaxies. Based on this analysis, we attempt to answer two questions: Is a three-parameter log-normal distribution a good candidate to satisfy the void size distributions obtained from different types of environments? Is there a direct relation between the shape parameters of the void size distribution and the environmental effects? In an attempt to answer these questions, we find here that all void size distributions of these data samples satisfy the three-parameter log-normal distribution whether the environment is dominated by DM, haloes, or galaxies. In addition, the shape parameters of the three-parameter log-normal void size distribution seem highly affected by environment, particularly existing substructures. Therefore, we show two quantitative relations given by linear equations between the skewness and the maximum tree depth, and between the variance of the void size distribution and the maximum tree depth, directly from the simulated data. In addition to this, we find that the percentage of voids with nonzero central density in the data sets has a critical importance. If the number of voids with nonzero central density reaches ≥3.84% in a simulation/mock sample, then a second population is observed in the void size distributions. This second population emerges as a second peak in the log-normal void size distribution at larger radius.
High-Dimensional Filtering Using Nested Sequential Monte Carlo

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods comprise one of the most successful approaches to approximate Bayesian filtering. However, SMC without a good proposal distribution can perform poorly, in particular in high dimensions. We propose nested sequential Monte Carlo, a methodology that generalizes the SMC framework by requiring only approximate, properly weighted, samples from the SMC proposal distribution, while still resulting in a correct SMC algorithm. This way, we can compute an “exact approximation” of, e.g., the locally optimal proposal, and extend the class of models for which we can perform efficient inference using SMC. We show improved accuracy over other state-of-the-art methods on several spatio-temporal state-space models.
Asymptotics and Optimal Bandwidth Selection for Nonparametric Estimation of Density Level Sets

Bandwidth selection is crucial in the kernel estimation of density level sets. Risk based on the symmetric difference between the estimated and true level sets is usually used to measure their proximity. In this paper we provide an asymptotic $L_1$ approximation to this risk, propose a corresponding $L_2$ type of risk, and use the new risk to develop an optimal bandwidth selection rule for nonparametric level set estimation of $d$-dimensional density functions ($d\geq 1$). As an important ingredient of the selection rule, integrations over the boundary of the level sets with respect to the Hausdorff measure are studied and the convergence rate of their estimation is derived.
Distance multivariance: New dependence measures for random vectors

We introduce two new measures for the dependence of $n \ge 2$ random variables: distance multivariance and total distance multivariance. Both measures are based on the weighted $L^2$-distance of quantities related to the characteristic functions of the underlying random variables. These extend distance covariance (introduced by Szekely, Rizzo and Bakirov) from pairs of random variables to $n$-tuplets of random variables. We show that total distance multivariance can be used to detect the independence of $n$ random variables and has a simple finite-sample representation in terms of distance matrices of the sample points, where distance is measured by a continuous negative definite function. Under some mild moment conditions, this leads to a test for independence of multiple random vectors which is consistent against all alternatives.
Piecewise Empirical Likelihood

Non-parametric methods avoid the problem of having to specify a particular data generating mechanism, but can be computationally intensive, reducing their accessibility for large data problems. Empirical likelihood, a non-parametric approach to the likelihood function, is also limited in application due to the computational demands necessary. We propose a new approach that combines multiple non-parametric likelihood-type components to build a data-driven approximation of the true function. We will examine the theoretical properties of this piecewise empirical likelihood and demonstrate the computational gains of this methodology.
A Multiresolution Analysis Framework for the Statistical Analysis of Incomplete Rankings

Though the statistical analysis of ranking data has been a subject of interest over the past centuries, especially in economics, psychology or social choice theory, it has been revitalized in the past 15 years by recent applications such as recommender or search engines and is receiving now increasing interest in the machine learning literature. Numerous modern systems indeed generate ranking data, representing for instance ordered results to a query or user preferences. Each such ranking usually involves a small but varying subset of the whole catalog of items only. The study of the variability of these data, i.e. the statistical analysis of incomplete rank-ings, is however a great statistical and computational challenge, because of their heterogeneity and the related combinatorial complexity of the problem. Whereas many statistical methods for analyzing full rankings (orderings of all the items in the catalog) are documented in the dedicated literature, partial rankings (full rankings with ties) or pairwise comparisons, only a few approaches are available today to deal with incomplete ranking, relying each on a strong specific assumption. It is the purpose of this article to introduce a novel general framework for the statistical analysis of incomplete rankings. It is based on a representation tailored to these specific data, whose construction is also explained here, which fits with the natural multi-scale structure of incomplete rankings and provides a new decomposition of rank information with a multiresolu-tion analysis interpretation (MRA). We show that the MRA representation naturally allows to overcome both the statistical and computational challenges without any structural assumption on the data. It therefore provides a general and flexible framework to solve a wide variety of statistical problems, where data are of the form of incomplete rankings.
Multivariate Generalized Linear Mixed Models for Joint Estimation of Sporting Outcomes

This paper explores improvements in prediction accuracy and inference capability when allowing for potential correlation in team-level random effects across multiple game-level responses from different assumed distributions. First-order and fully exponential Laplace approximations are used to fit normal-binary and Poisson-binary multivariate generalized linear mixed models with non-nested random effects structures. We have built these models into the R package mvglmmRank, which is used to explore several seasons of American college football and basketball data.
Objective Bayesian modelling of insurance risks with the skewed Student-t distribution

Insurance risks data typically exhibit skewed behaviour. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian approach to capture the main features of these datasets. This work extends the methodology introduced in Villa and Walker (2014a) by considering an extra parameter which captures the skewness of the data. In particular, a skewed Student-t distribution is considered. Two datasets are analysed: the Danish fire losses and the US indemnity loss. The analysis is carried with an objective Bayesian approach. For the discrete parameter representing the number of the degrees of freedom, we adopt a novel prior recently introduced in Villa and Walker (2014b).
Asymptotic behaviour of the empirical Bayes posteriors associated to maximum marginal likelihood estimator

We consider the asymptotic behaviour of the marginal maximum likelihood empirical Bayes posterior distribution in general setting. First we characterize the set where the maximum marginal likelihood estimator is located with high probability. Then we provide oracle type of upper and lower bounds for the contraction rates of the empirical Bayes posterior. We also show that the hierarchical Bayes posterior achieves the same contraction rate as the maximum marginal likelihood empirical Bayes posterior. We demonstrate the applicability of our general results for various models and prior distributions by deriving upper and lower bounds for the contraction rates of the corresponding empirical and hierarchical Bayes posterior distributions.
High-dimensional robust precision matrix estimation: Cellwise corruption under $\epsilon$-contamination

We analyze the statistical consistency of robust estimators for precision matrices in high dimensions. We focus on a contamination mechanism acting cellwise on the data matrix. The estimators we analyze are formed by plugging appropriately chosen robust covariance matrix estimators into the graphical Lasso and CLIME. Such estimators were recently proposed in the robust statistics literature, but only analyzed mathematically from the point of view of the breakdown point. This paper provides complementary high-dimensional error bounds for the precision matrix estimators that reveal the interplay between the dimensionality of the problem and the degree of contamination permitted in the observed distribution. We also show that although the graphical Lasso and CLIME estimators perform equally well from the point of view of statistical consistency, the breakdown property of the graphical Lasso is superior to that of CLIME. We discuss implications of our work for problems involving graphical model estimation when the uncontaminated data follow a multivariate normal distribution, and the goal is to estimate the support of the population-level precision matrix. Our error bounds do not make any assumptions about the the contaminating distribution and allow for a nonvanishing fraction of cellwise contamination.