Baby Boomers and the New Demographics of America's Seniors

We know baby boomers are quickly approaching age 65, but how will their tendency to age in place affect the makeup of our cities and suburbs, and the approaching generational ethnic divide? In the wake of minimal growth in the senior (age 65 and older) population during the 1990s, and modest gains during the recent past, the leading edge of the huge baby boom generation starts crossing the age 65 marker in 2011-a pattern that will continue over the next twenty years (see Figure 1 on page 29). During each earlier stage of their lives, baby boomers seem to have broken the mold in terms of their aspirations, accomplishments, and lifestyles (Jones, 1980; Hughes and O'Rand, 2004). There is no reason to expect that this generation will not continue to shatter precedents as large numbers of its members march into seniorhood. Many policy makers, government officials, and marketers are aware that the baby boom "pig" is progressing toward the tail end of the python. But they do not understand how its impact will differ across the country. Projections from where "pre-senior" baby boomers have been living in the past decade suggest that the fastest growth in the senior population will happen in spots not traditionally associated with seniors-previously youthful sections of the sunbelt and the suburbs. In contrast, more slow-growing areas-the snowbelt and older cities-will see less growth in their already large senior population. America's older population also includes the World War II generation, which entered the 65-years-and-older category in the past decade. This generation represents a transition between the retirees born during the Depression and the impending baby-boom retirees. Not only is this generation larger than its Depression-era cohorts, but it also benefited from the economic prosperity that followed the war, reflected in improved access to education, steady jobs with generous pensions, and an ability to achieve home ownership at an early age. Where this cohort continues to age in place, it will become a significant component of our future older population. Over the next two decades, there also will be a selective youth bubble in different parts of the country because of recent in-migration of young people of childbearing age and the influx of immigrant minorities who are younger and have higher fertility rates (Jacobsen and Mather, 2010). Because the younger portion of the population is more racially diverse than the baby boomer-dominated senior age groups (Frey, 2006), areas where both demographic trends are taking place may experience a growing cultural generation gap when it comes to issues such as community preferences and spending. After introducing America's new generationally driven aging demographic structure, this article will profile recent state and metropolitan shifts of the age-65-and-older population. Following this will be an examination of impending population growth as the baby boom generation enters ages 55 to 64-a precursor to what is in store for the country once the baby boomers begin turning age 65. The focus then turns to a distinctive spatial consequence of this trend: the graying of the suburbs. This will be followed by an examination of cultural generation gaps that are likely to emerge between a youth population that is increasingly made up of minorities, and the largely white senior population with few family connections to them. Generationally Driven Aging The next two decades will see a rapid rise in America's senior population as the baby boom generation, born between 1946 and 1964, passes age 65. A precursor to this growth was seen in the previous decade as the leading edge of baby boomers (those born between 1946 and 1955) entered the group of people ages 55 to 64 years. As Figure 2 shows, this population expanded by nearly half between 2000 and 2010. The growth of the age 45- to 54-year-old group by nearly one fifth can be attributed to the second part of the baby boom (those born between 1956 and 1965), who will not become ages 65 and older until 2020 to 2030. …