Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Playing with Fire: Cigarettes, Taxes and Competition from the Internet

This paper documents the rise of the Internet as a source of cigarette tax competition for states in the United States. Using data on cigarette tax rates, taxable cigarette sales and individual smoking rates by state from 1980 to 2005 merged with data on Internet penetration, the paper documents that there has been a substantial increase in the sensitivity of taxable cigarette sales that is correlated with the rise of Internet usage within states. The estimates imply that the increased sensitivity from cigarette smuggling over the Internet has lessened the revenue generating potential of recent cigarette tax increases substantially. Given the continuing growth of the Internet and of Internet cigarette merchants, the results imply serious problems for state revenue authorities. We wish to thank Jonathan Gruber, James Poterba, Raj Chetty and participants at seminars at UC Berkeley, the University of Chicago, and the NBER Summer Institute for helpful comments. We also thank Jane Dokko, Peter Katuscak, Pablo Pena, Svetla Tzenova and Jongsang Park for research assistance, and the American Tax Policy Institute and the Searle Freedom Trust for financial support.
Unresolved states of mind, anomalous parental behavior, and disorganized attachment: A review and meta-analysis of a transmission gap

Abstract The current meta-analysis examines the links between unresolved representations of attachment, anomalous parental behavior, and disorganized attachment relationships in 12 studies including 851 families. We found moderate effect sizes for the associations between unresolved states of mind and anomalous behavior (r = .26), unresolved states of mind and infant disorganized attachment relationships (r = .21), and anomalous behavior and disorganized attachment relationships (r = .34). Sample characteristics, observational context, and observational measure were not associated with differences in effect sizes. Only a small part of the association between unresolved states of mind and disorganized attachment relationships was explained by the mediation of anomalous parental behavior (.26* .34 = .09). Other factors yet to be uncovered must mediate the influence of unresolved states of mind on infant disorganized attachment; thus, further exploration of infant, parental, ecological, and genetic factors are warranted.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports Leverage Asset Pricing

We investigate intermediary asset pricing theories empirically and find strong support for models that have intermediary leverage as the relevant state variable. A parsimonious model that uses detrended dealer leverage as a price-of-risk variable, and innovations to dealer leverage as a pricing factor, is shown to perform well in time series and cross-sectional tests of a wide variety of equity and bond portfolios. The model outperforms alternative specifications of intermediary pricing models that use intermediary net worth as a state variable, and it performs well in comparison to benchmark asset pricing models. We draw implications for macroeconomic modeling.
Features of Natural Condition of Shenzhen Bay and Problems Needed to Pay Attention to during Improvement

Based on observation data and test results carried out in Shenzhen Bay for years,this paper analizes the natural,hydrologic and sediment conditions in Shenzhen Bay and reveals that sand source in Shenzhen Bay is mainly the sediment incoming from the sea,and that the accretion rate is increasing with the economic development in the region,especially in the rear bay above Dongjiaotou. Equilibrium of natural condition in Shenzhen Bay depends on current movement,hence,it is necessary to keep up the motive force of current as far as possible during improvement.This paper also puts forward problems needed to pay attention to during improvement.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports The Central-Bank Balance Sheet as an Instrument of Monetary Policy

While many analyses of monetary policy consider only a target for a short-term nominal interest rate, other dimensions of policy have recently been of greater importance: changes in the supply of bank reserves, changes in the assets acquired by central banks, and changes in the interest rate paid on reserves. We first extend a standard New Keynesian model to allow a role for the central bank’s balance sheet in equilibrium determination and then consider the connections between these alternative policy dimensions and traditional interest rate policy. We distinguish between “quantitative easing” in the strict sense and targeted asset purchases by a central bank, arguing that, according to our model, while the former is likely to be ineffective at all times, the latter can be effective when financial markets are sufficiently disrupted. Neither is a perfect substitute for conventional interest rate policy, but purchases of illiquid assets are particularly likely to improve welfare when the zero lower bound on the policy rate is reached. We also consider optimal policy with regard to the payment of interest on reserves; in our model, this requires that the interest rate on reserves be kept near the target for the policy rate at all times.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports Financial Intermediaries and the Cross-section of Asset Returns

paper presents preliminary findings and is being distributed to economists and other interested readers solely to stimulate discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and are not necessarily reflective of views at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors.
Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Reports the Persistent Effects of a False News Shock the Persistent Effects of a False News Shock

This paper presents preliminary findings and is being distributed to economists and other interested readers solely to stimulate discussion and elicit comments. The views expressed in the paper are those of the authors and are not necessarily reflective of views at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System. Any errors or omissions are the responsibility of the authors. Abstract In September 2008, a six-year-old article about the 2002 bankruptcy of United Airlines' parent company resurfaced on the Internet and was mistakenly believed to be reporting a new bankruptcy filing by the company. This episode caused the company's stock price to drop by as much as 76 percent in just a few minutes, before NASDAQ halted trading. After the " news " had been identified as false, the stock price rebounded, but still ended the day 11.2 percent below the previous close. We explore this natural experiment by using a simple asset-pricing model to study the aftermath of this false news shock. We find that, after three trading sessions, the company's stock was still trading below the two-standard-deviation band implied by the model and that it returned to within one standard deviation only during the sixth trading session. On the seventh day after the episode, the stock was trading at the level predicted by the asset-pricing model. We investigate several potential explanations for this finding, but fail to find empirical evidence supporting any of them. We also document that the false news shock had a persistent negative effect on the stock prices of other major airline companies. This is consistent with the view that contagion effects would have dominated competitive effects had the bankruptcy actually taken place. and two anonymous referees for comments and suggestions. Casidhe Horan provided outstanding research assistance. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the Federal Reserve System.
Notas sobre Enterosora Baker (Filicales: Grammitidaceae) en Costa Rica

Two entities of Enterosora Baker (Grammitidaceae) previously supposed to be hybrids are considered here as valid species: the new species E. bishopii A. Rojas, and the new combination E. enterosoroides (H. Christ) A. Rojas, based on their fertile condition, different geographical and altitudinal distribution, and distinctive morphology. resumen. Dos taxa de Enterosora Baker (Grammitidaceae), considerados hasta ahora como hibridos, se tratan aqui como especies validas: E. bishopii A. Rojas, sp. nova, y E. enterosoroides (H. Christ) A. Rojas, comb. nova, con base en la condicion fertil, distribucion geografica y altitudinal diferentes y morfologia distinta.
Wind climate estimation using WRF model output: method and model sensitivities over the sea

High‐quality tall mast and wind lidar measurements over the North and Baltic Seas are used to validate the wind climatology produced from winds simulated by the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in analysis mode. Biases in annual mean wind speed between model and observations at heights around 100 m are smaller than 3.2% at offshore sites, except for those that are affected by the wake of a wind farm or the coastline. These biases are smaller than those obtained by using winds directly from the reanalysis. We study the sensitivity of the WRF‐simulated wind climatology to various model setup parameters. The results of the year‐long sensitivity simulations show that the long‐term mean wind speed simulated by the WRF model offshore in the region studied is quite insensitive to the global reanalysis, the number of vertical levels, and the horizontal resolution of the sea surface temperature used as lower boundary conditions. Also, the strength and form (grid vs spectral) of the nudging is quite irrelevant for the mean wind speed at 100 m. Large sensitivity is found to the choice of boundary layer parametrization, and to the length of the period that is discarded as spin‐up to produce a wind climatology. It is found that the spin‐up period for the boundary layer winds is likely larger than 12 h over land and could affect the wind climatology for points offshore for quite a distance downstream from the coast.
Ocean Wind Study Using Simulated RCM Compact-Polarimetry SAR

Abstract. The incidence angle, wind speed, and wind direction dependence of compact polarimetry (CP) synthetic aperture radar (SAR) parameters are presented for open water. Selected CP parameters are related to C-band geophysical model function (CMOD) output. Wind speeds range between 0 and 24 m/s, and incidence angles range between 18 and 50°. SAR data are coincident with meteorological buoy data. CP parameters are simulated from polarimetric RADARSAT-2 data and emulate data available on the pending RADARSAT Constellation Mission (RCM). Analysis is performed for 20 CP parameters, based on RADARSAT-2 images. Five linear-polarization SAR parameters are included for comparison. Results show robust relationships for CP parameters related to CMOD. For CP parameters unrelated to CMOD, results provide first-, second-, or third-order linear regression models, as functions of incidence angle, wind speed, wind direction, or combinations thereof. These models provide a set of values for comparison with sea ice or other features on, or adjacent to, open water. The results of this study are of value to the Canadian Ice Service of the Meteorological Service of Canada, as well as other government of Canada departments, for implementing CP SAR data in their operational workflows once RCM is launched. Résumé. La dépendance à l’angle d’incidence, à la vitesse et à la direction du vent des paramètres mesurés en polarimétrie compacte (CP) est présentée pour l’eau libre. Les paramètres de CP sélectionnés sont liés aux sorties de la fonction du modèle géophysique en bande C (CMOD). Les vitesses du vent varient entre 0 et 24 m/s, et les angles d’incidence varient entre 18 et 50 degrés. Les données SAR coïncident avec les données des bouées météorologiques. Les paramètres en CP sont simulés à partir des données polarimétriques de RADARSAT-2, et ils simulent les données qui seront disponibles à partir de la mission de la Constellation RADARSAT prévue (MCR). L’analyse est effectuée pour 20 paramètres en CP, sur la base des images RADARSAT-2. Cinq paramètres SAR en polarisation linéaire sont inclus pour comparaison. Les résultats montrent des relations robustes pour les paramètres en CP liés à CMOD. Pour les paramètres en CP non liés à la CMOD, les résultats fournissent des modèles de régression linéaire de première, deuxième ou troisième ordre, en fonction de l’angle d’incidence, de la vitesse et de la direction du vent, ou des combinaisons de ceux-ci. Ces modèles fournissent un ensemble de valeurs de comparaison avec la glace de mer; ou d’autres éléments sur, ou à proximité de, l’eau libre. Les résultats de cette étude seront importants pour le Service canadien des glaces du Service météorologique du Canada, ainsi que pour d’autres ministères du gouvernement du Canada, pour mettre en œuvre les données SAR en CP dans leur flux de travaux opérationnels, une fois la MCR lancée.
Association between COVID-19 Infection or Vaccination Outcomes and Methylenetetrahydrofolate Reductase Gene Polymorphism: A Systematic Review of the Literature

Background: Thrombosis is a detrimental sequala of COVID-19 infection; thus, prophylactic anti-coagulant therapy has been deemed mandatory in treatment unless serious contraindications are present. Susceptibility to thromboembolic events in COVID-19, or following COVID-19 vaccination, is likely attributable to an interplay of factors, including a patient’s baseline clinical status and comorbidities, alongside genetic risk factors. In Europe, 8–20% of the population are homozygous for the MTHFR (methylene tetrahydrofolate reductase) variant, which compromises folate metabolism and elevates homocysteine levels. While heightened homocysteine levels are considered a risk factor for thromboembolic events, the precise clinical significance remains a contentious issue. However, recent research suggests elevated homocysteine levels may predict the course and severity of COVID-19 infection. Given the lack of reliable biomarkers predictive of COVID-19 thrombotic risk existing in practice, and the accessibility of MTHFR screening, we established two main outcomes for this study: (1) to determine the association between hereditary MTHFR mutations and COVID-19 severity and thromboembolic events and (2) to determine the link between MTHFR variants and adverse thrombotic events following COVID-19 vaccination. Methods: The review was conducted in accordance with PRISMA guidelines. Medline, Scopus, and Web of Science databases were searched from pandemic inception (11 March 2020) to 30 October 2023. Eligibility criteria were applied, and data extraction performed. Results: From 63 citations identified, a total of 14 articles met the full inclusion criteria (8 of which were cross-sectional or observational studies, and 6 were case studies or reports). Among the eight observational and cross-sectional studies evaluating the relationship between MTHFR variants (C667T; A1298C) and thromboembolic events in COVID-19 infection, four studies established a connection (n = 2200), while the remaining four studies failed to demonstrate any significant association (n = 38). Conclusions: This systematic review demonstrated a possible association between the MTHFR gene variants and COVID-19 severity, thromboembolic events, and adverse events following vaccination. However, the paucity of robust data precluded any firm conclusions being drawn. Further prospective trials are required to determine the connection between the MTHFR gene variant and COVID-19 infection and vaccination outcomes.
Wine trails as organizational pathway toward landscape coherence: the case of the Finger Lakes region, New York, USA

Abstract This paper explores the role of so-called wine trails as planners and managers of viticultural landscapes, using the case of the Finger Lakes region in New York, USA. Using key informant interviews, it assesses the current capacity and the future potential of these non-governmental, fee-based ‘clubs’ to mediate between global markets and the local agricultural landscape in the absence of policy frameworks designed for this purpose. Though it finds little evidence of such mediation today, the paper argues that the structure and institutional position of wine trails, organizations whose members’ livelihoods depend substantially on long-term landscape coherence, position them to play a more assertive role in doing so in the future, particularly in places marked by lax planning regimes and scarce resources.
Reinterpretation of crinoid‐platyceratid interaction

The well-known association of platyceratid gastropods with crinoids has traditionally been considered an example of coprophagous commensalism. The Occurrence of several crinoid ‘stands’ (Platycrinites sp.) from closely spaced bedding surfaces in the upper Mississippian Wymps Gap Limestone member of the Mauch Chunk Formation of southwestern Pennsylvania encourages reinterpretation of this relationship. Crinoid calyces were collected from five separate clusters, two of which contained associated platyceratids. ‘Infested’ crinoids either died prematurely or were stunted, compared to crinoids in the ‘uninfested’ clusters. Platyceratid attachment apparently had an adverse effect upon crinoid growth. Serial acetate peels show positioning of the gastropod on the crinoid tegmen over a highly developed anal tube, or chimney. However, the terminus of the anal tube abuts the gastropod's shell and is poorly situated for fecal ingestion by the snail. We suggest that the snail probably pursued another trophic strategy, perhaps taking advantage of aerosol filtration by the crinoid and elevation above the substrate.
Variational Assimilation of Automatic Weather Stations Rainfall in Convective Systems and its Impact on Rain Forecast

The lack of data over the tropical regions contributes greatly to the uncertainties in the initial state of numeric weather prediction models,which in turn limits their forecast skill.Because in tropical regions the atmospheric motions are driven largely by diabatic processes,precipitation observations could be a valuable data source for improving initial fields.In Guangdong Province,there are almost 600 automatic weather stations(AWS),providing hourly rainfall records.Focusing on the convective system,this study use the extension of the KUO cumulus parameter scheme as the observation operator to assimilate the AWS rainfall records in Guangdong Province on the GRAPES(Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System) 3D variational assimilation system,and compares with the assimilation of sounding data.In the case of 1 April 2004,hourly AWS rainfall records are compared with the GOES (Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite) infrared channel temperature,TRMM(Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) rain rate data and flash location observations.Results show that the hourly AWS rain records can properly describe the convective system rain bands.Using WRF(Weather Research and Forecasting Model)as the forecast model,the control test shows that the initial rain bands are located in the northern part of the observation.Three assimilation experiments are designed to assimilate the AWS rain records sounding data and all the data respectively.Results show that in the regions where the initial rain bands are adjusted,assimilating the AWS rainfall and sounding data respectively both can adjust the low level atmosphere moisture convergence(or divergence),low and middle troposphere temperature and moisture increasing(or decreasing) to enhance(or weaken) the initial rainfall.The results mean that the adjustment by AWS rain assimilation scheme is consistent with the sounding data assimilation to some extent.This paper also discusses the influence of AWS rainfall assimilation on the short-range rain forecast.Results show that AWS rainfall assimilation scheme has the positive impact on the convective system short-range rain forecast.Assimilating AWS rainfall and sounding data at the same time can eliminate the deficiency of both the data,improve the rain location and structure forecast.
Detection of epidermal growth factor receptor mutation in plasma as a biomarker in chinese patients with early-stage non-small cell lung cancer

Purpose: This preplanned exploratory analysis was conducted to reveal the true status of correlation between tissue and plasma detection for early-stage non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations, knowing that specific subgroups of NSCLC patients may be potential candidates for EGFR mutation analysis by using plasma samples. Materials and methods: Tissue samples were surgically resected from 198 patients with stage I–IV NSCLC, where stage I A to III A accounted for 92.4%. EGFR mutations in all these tissues were positive. Paired plasma EGFR mutations were detected by real-time polymerase chain reaction; concentration of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) in plasma was measured by ultraviolet spectrophotometry. Results: EGFR-activating mutation was detected in 34 plasma samples, and their mutation types were matched with that in tissue. The sensitivity of EGFR mutation for the 198 paired tissue and plasma samples was 17.2%. The sensitivity positively correlated with disease stage and negatively correlated with tumor differentiation. The sensitivity of stage I A , I B , II A , II B , and III A was 1.6%, 7.9%, 11.1%, 20%, and 33.3%, respectively; the sensitivity of high differentiation was 0% versus 36.8% for poor differentiation. There was no correlation between plasma cfDNA concentration and patient characteristics. Conclusion: We recommend using plasma cfDNA as a biomarker in stage III A or poorly differentiated tumors for gene diagnosis, especially in patients whose tissue samples cannot be obtained by surgery. Plasma samples can really reflect the patients’ EGFR mutation types and may contain comprehensive genotypic information that comes from different parts of the tumor than tissue specimens. The concentration of plasma cfDNA does not vary with patient characteristics.