Thermodynamic Controls on Deep Convection in the Tropics: Observations and Applications to Modeling

Author(s): Schiro, Kathleen Anne | Advisor(s): Neelin, J. David | Abstract: Constraining precipitation processes in climate models with observations is crucial to accurately simulating current climate and reducing uncertainties in future projections. This work presents robust relationships between tropical deep convection, column-integrated water vapor (CWV), and other thermodynamic quantities analyzed with data from the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Mobile Facility in Manacapuru, Brazil as part of the GOAmazon campaign and are directly compared to such relationships at DOE ARM sites in the tropical western Pacific. A robust relationship between CWV and precipitation, as explained by variability in lower tropospheric humidity, exists just as strongly in a tropical continental region as it does in a tropical oceanic region. Given sufficient mixing in the lower troposphere, higher CWV generally results in greater plume buoyancies through a deep convective layer. Although sensitivity of convection to other controls is suggested, such as microphysical processes and dynamical lifting mechanisms, the increase in buoyancy with CWV is consistent with the sharp increase in precipitation observed.Entraining plume buoyancy calculations confirm that CWV is a good proxy for the conditional instability of the environment, yet differences in convective onset as a function of CWV exist over land and ocean, as well as seasonally and diurnally over land. This is largely due to variability in the contribution of lower tropospheric humidity to the total column moisture. Over land, the relationship between deep convection and lower free tropospheric moisture is robust across all seasons and times of day, whereas the relation to boundary layer moisture is robust for the daytime only. Using S-Band radar, these transition statistics are examined separately for unorganized and mesoscale-organized convection, which exhibit sharp increases in probability of occurrence with increasing moisture throughout the column, particularly in the lower free troposphere. An observational basis for an integrated buoyancy measure from a single plume buoyancy formulation that provides a strong relation to precipitation can be useful for constraining convective parameterizations. A mixing scheme corresponding to deep inflow of environmental air into a plume that grows with height provides a weighting of boundary layer and free tropospheric air that yields buoyancies consistent with the observed onset of deep convection across seasons and times of day, across land and ocean sites, and for all convection types. This provides a substantial improvement relative to more traditional constant mixing assumptions, and a dramatic improvement relative to no mixing. Furthermore, it provides relationships that are as strong or stronger for mesoscale-organized convection as for unorganized convection.Downdrafts and their associated parameters are poorly constrained in models, as physical and microphysical processes of leading order importance are difficult to observe with sufficient frequency for development of robust statistics. Downdrafts and cold pool characteristics for mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) and isolated, unorganized deep precipitating convection in the Amazon are composited and both exhibit similar signatures in wind speed, surface fluxes, surface equivalent potential temperature () and precipitation. For both MCSs and unorganized convection, downdrafts associated with the strongest modifications to surface thermodynamics have increasing probability of occurrence with decreasing height through the lowest 4 km and show similar mean downdraft magnitudes with height. If is approximately conserved following descent, a large fraction of the air reaching the surface likely originates at altitudes in the lowest 2 km. Mixing computations suggest that, on average, air originating at heights greater than 3 km would require substantial mixing, particularly in the case of isolated cells, to match the observed cold pool . Statistics from two years of surface meteorological data at the GOAmazon site and 15 years of data at the DOE ARM site on Manus Island in the tropical western Pacific show that conditioned on precipitation levels off with increasing precipitation rate, bounded by the maximum difference between surface and its minimum in the profile aloft. Robustness of these statistics observed across scales and regions suggests their potential use as model diagnostic tools for the improvement of downdraft parameterizations in climate models.