Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Differences between the single‐event and frequency formats of seasonal‐climate‐forecast probability

Since the late 1980s, Australian forecasters have used the seasonal climate forecast (SCF) statement In the next three months, the probability of getting above median rainfall is 30%. Study one (n = 63) established a baseline of whether laypersons interpreted this statement as forecasting wetter or drier conditions than normal. Although the statement is forecasting a greater likelihood of drier conditions than normal, 76% incorrectly interpreted the statement as forecasting a wetter season than normal. Using testing conditions identical to study one, in study two (n = 71), to improve accuracy, we inserted the word only in the statement (i.e. … probability of getting above median rainfall is only 30%). While the probability itself had not changed, a drop to just 24% errors suggested participants were ambiguous about how to interpret this probability. A body of research by Gigerenzer and others shows peoples' ability to reason with probabilities is enhanced by frequency probabilities rather than single‐event probabilities. Study three (n = 51) used the frequency (i.e. 3 in 10) rather than single‐event (i.e. 30%) format tested in studies one and two. Only 22% made errors showing participants better understood how to interpret the frequency probability. We discuss formats for presenting the SCF and argue the frequency format more effectively conveys the chance nature of forecasts.
Landscape evolution in tidal embayments: Modeling the interplay of erosion, sedimentation, and vegetation dynamics

We propose an ecomorphodynamic model which conceptualizes the chief land-forming processes operating on the intertwined, long-term evolution of marsh platforms and embedded tidal networks. The rapid network incision (previously addressed by the authors) is decoupled from the geomorphological dynamics of intertidal areas, governed by sediment erosion and deposition and crucially affected by the presence of vegetation. This allows us to investigate the response of tidal morphologies to different scenarios of sediment supply, colonization by halophytes, and changing sea level. Different morphological evolutionary regimes are shown to depend on marsh ecology. Marsh accretion rates, enhanced by vegetation growth, and the related platform elevations tend to decrease with distance from the creek, measured along suitably defined flow paths. The negative feedback between surface elevation and its inorganic accretion rate is reinforced by the relation between plant productivity and soil elevation in Spartina-dominated marshes and counteracted by positive feedbacks in multispecies-vegetated marshes. When evolving under constant sea level, unvegetated and Spartina-dominated marshes asymptotically tend to mean high water level (MHWL), different from multiple vegetation species marshes, which can make the evolutionary transition to upland. Equilibrium configurations below MHWL can be reached under constant rates of sea level rise, depending on sediment supply and vegetation productivity. Our analyses on marine regressions and transgressions show that when the system is in a supply-limited regime, network retreat and expansion (associated with regressions and transgressions, respectively) tend to be cyclic. Conversely, in a transport-limited regime, network reexpansion following a regression tends to take on a new configuration, showing a hysteretic behavior. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.
A generation mechanism for topside enhanced incoherent backscatter during high frequency modification experiments in Tromsø

Enhanced plasma and ion oscillations on the topside of the ionosphere have been observed during high frequency (HF) ionospheric modification experiments at Tromsø. The topside enhancements occurred when the critical frequency of the F layer was below that of the Z mode reflection. Thus, one can consider Z mode waves as a plausible candidate to produce the enhancements. However, the topside echoes were observed over an angular range of many degrees, apparently not compatible with the prediction of the standard theory of a very narrow coupling window located at the Spitze angle. We propose resonant scatter of the HF pump wave into Z mode waves on small‐scale field‐aligned irregularities to be the cause of the broadening. The irregularities are generated by the HF wave, likely via the resonant instability.
Water levels primarily drive variation in photosynthesis and nutrient use of scrub Red Mangroves in the southeastern Florida Everglades.

We investigated how mangrove-island micro-elevation (i.e., habitat: center vs edge) affects tree physiology in a scrub mangrove forest of the southeastern Everglades. We measured leaf gas exchange rates of scrub Rhizophora mangle L. trees monthly during 2019, hypothesizing that CO2 assimilation (Anet) and stomatal conductance (gsw) would decline with increasing water levels and salinity, expecting more considerable differences at mangrove-island edges than centers, where physiological stress is greatest. Water levels varied between 0 and 60 cm from the soil surface, rising during the wet season (May-October) relative to the dry season (November-April). Porewater salinity ranged from 15 to 30 p.p.t. , being higher at mangrove-island edges than centers. Anet maximized at 15.1 μmol m-2 s-1, and gsw was typically <0.2 mol m-2 s-1, both of which were greater in the dry than the wet season and greater at island centers than edges, with seasonal variability being roughly equal to variation between habitats. After accounting for season and habitat, water level positively affected Anet in both seasons but did not affect gsw. Our findings suggest that inundation stress (i.e., water level) is the primary driver of variation in leaf gas exchange rates of scrub mangroves in the Florida Everglades, while also constraining Anet more than gsw. The interaction between inundation stress due to permanent flooding and habitat varies with season as physiological stress is alleviated at higher-elevation mangrove-island center habitats during the dry season. Freshwater inflows during the wet season increase water levels and inundation stress at higher-elevation mangrove-island centers, but also potentially alleviate salt and sulfide stress in soils. Thus, habitat heterogeneity leads to differences in nutrient and water acquisition and use between trees growing in island centers versus edges, creating distinct physiological controls on photosynthesis, which likely affect carbon flux dynamics of scrub mangroves in the Everglades.
Parameterisation of the 3-PG process-based model in predicting the growth and water use of Pinus elliottii in South Africa.

A simplified process-based model simulating growth and water use in forest plantations was utilised to predict the growth of Pinus elliottii in South African forest plantations. The model is called 3-PG (Physiological Principles in Predicting Growth) and predicted the growth of trees by simulating physiological processes that determine growth and water use, and the way trees are affected by the physical conditions to which they are subjected, and with which they react. Pinus elliottii growth data recorded in 301 sample stands around South Africa were sourced from forestry companies. A selection procedure reduced the number of stands to 44, where 32 were used to parameterise 3-PG and 12 were reserved for testing the final model parameters. This was accomplished by matching model output to observed data. All stand simulations were initialised at age four years and continued to the maximum age of recorded growth. A provisional set of parameter values provided a good fit to most stands and minor adjustments of the specific leaf area (σ), which was assigned a value of 5 m.kg, were made, bringing about an improved fit. The predictions of mean DBH, Height, and TPH were relatively good, achieving R of 0.8036, 0.8975, and 0.661 respectively, while predictions of stem volumes were worse (R =0.5922, n=32). The 3-PG model over-predicted DBH in 20 stands, while modelled volume predictions improved substantially in thinned stands (R =0.8582, n=14) compared to unthinned stands (R =0.3456, n=18). The height predictions were generally good producing an R =0.8975. The final set of 3-PG parameter values was then validated against growth data from the 12 independent stands. The predictions of mean DBH, Height, and TPH were relatively good, achieving R of 0.8467, 0.7649, and 0.9916 respectively, while predictions of stem volumes were worse (R =0.5766, n=12). The results of this study demonstrated the potential for 3-PG to respond to many growth factors and to predict growth and water use by trees with encouraging realism. Patterns of changing leaf area index (L) over time, responses to drought,
Safety Assessment of Polyaminopropyl Biguanide (polyhexamethylene biguanide hydrochloride) as Used in Cosmetics

The Cosmetic Ingredient Review (CIR) Expert Panel (Panel) reviewed the safety of Polyaminopropyl Biguanide (polyhexamethylene biguanide hydrochloride), which functions as a preservative in cosmetic products. The Panel reviewed relevant data relating to the safety of this ingredient and concluded that the available data are insufficient to make a determination that this ingredient is safe under the intended conditions of use in cosmetic formulations. INTRODUCTION The safety of Polyaminopropyl Biguanide as used as a preservative in cosmetics is reviewed in this assessment. Polyaminopropyl Biguanide is an International Nomenclature of Cosmetic Ingredients (INCI) name; it refers to the hydrochloride salt of an amino polymer comprising hexyl biguanide repeat units (i.e., polyhexamethylene biguanide hydrochloride (PHMB HCl)). This cosmetic ingredient has a 6-carbon chain in each monomeric repeat unit, and is always supplied as the hydrochloride salt. The substance identified by the chemical name polyaminopropyl biguanide is not a cosmetic ingredient. In CIR safety assessments, it is standard procedure to capitalize INCI names, but to use lower case for standard chemical names. Accordingly, throughout this report, when the capitalized INCI name Polyaminopropyl Biguanide is used, it is to be understood that it is referring to the cosmetic ingredient that has the chemical name polyhexamethylene biguanide hydrochloride. It should also be understood that Polyaminopropyl Biguanide is the ingredient with reported uses in cosmetics. Furthermore, most of the safety test data included in this report are on the chemical polyhexamethylene biguanide hydrochloride, as indicated by the use of the INCI name. The only exception to the exclusive use of the INCI name Polyaminopropyl Biguanide in this safety assessment relates to the summary of a cytoxicity study, in which results for polyhexamethylene biguanide and polyaminopropyl biguanide are compared. In 2017, the Scientific Committee on Consumer Safety (SCCS) issued a final opinion stating that the use of Polyaminopropyl Biguanide as a preservative in all cosmetic products at concentrations up to 0.1% is safe and that its use in sprayable formulations is not advised. Additionally, Polyaminopropyl Biguanide has been reviewed by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The EPA concluded that its use as a pesticide has very low aggregate risk of adverse health effects to the public or environment. This safety assessment includes relevant published and unpublished data for each endpoint that is evaluated. Published data are identified by conducting an exhaustive search of the world’s literature. A list of the typical search engines and websites used, sources explored, and endpoints that CIR evaluates, is available on the CIR website (http://www.cirsafety.org/supplementaldoc/preliminary-search-engines-and-websites; http://www.cir-safety.org/supplementaldoc/cir-reportformat-outline). Unpublished data are provided by the cosmetics industry, as well as by other interested parties.
Methods for uncertainty assessment of climate models and model predictions over East Asia

Model performance and uncertainty have been assessed using simulations of the climate in the 20th century based on the 21 models of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fourth Assessment Report (IPCC AR4) and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. To evaluate the fidelity and reliability of the simulations of East Asian climate change, the following approaches are compared to assess the uncertainty of East Asian monsoon and climate projection in conjunction with global warming: Taylor diagrams using correlation and standard deviation of model results over East Asia (100°E–150°E, 20°N–45°N), signal‐to‐noise ratio (SNR), and principal‐mode comparison identified by empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis. On the basis of the Taylor diagram and SNR results, good performance models with statistically high fidelity produce higher values of warming over East Asia and an enhancement of the northwest–southeast temperature gradient between the land and ocean. This enhanced temperature gradient may strengthen the East Asian summer monsoon flow, resulting in a greater increase in precipitation along the East Asian summer rain band on the continental side of East Asia. However, the good performance models as determined by the principal‐mode comparison produce lower values of warming over the East Asia region during winter; these values are clearly different from the corresponding values obtained from the Taylor diagram and SNR approaches. These results suggest that the models that give priority to the signal associated with the first leading mode of EOF or the principal mode may predict less warming than other models. The models that predict an El Niño‐like state in response to greenhouse warming produce less warming over East Asia, corresponding to the results of the principal‐mode comparison.
Global ocean emission of dimethylsulfide predicted from biogeophysical data

Among the biosphere‐atmosphere interactions that influence climate, the emission of dimethylsulfide (DMS) from the ocean plays a prominent role for its high potential in cloud albedo regulation. In order to advance in our understanding and quantification of this coupled ocean‐atmosphere system, both synoptic and predictive capabilities must be largely improved. Hitherto, large‐scale oceanic DMS has eluded being captured from remote sensing, correlated with synoptic variables, or simulated by mechanistic modeling. We have found a simple empirical relationship that permits global‐ocean monthly distributions of DMS concentration to be computed from a combination of remotely sensed biospheric data (chlorophyll a) and climatological geophysical data (mixed layer depth). This relationship allows for the desired synopticity and predictability in the ocean‐to‐atmosphere sulfur flux, which we have globally quantified as 23–35 Tg S yr−1. Also, our algorithm stands in support of a biogenic‐DMS/solar‐radiation negative feedback and opens the door toward quantifying its strength and its response to global warming.
The atlas of structural geometry: a digital collection of 25 years of analogue modelling

Analogue model experiments of tectonic faulting have been carried out at the Shell Research lab, then ‘KSEPL’, since 1974. During the following years hundreds of experiments, covering all the tectonic regimes, were performed. In order to provide Shell geologists and seismic interpreters with easy access to this vast amount of data, an interactive CD-ROM has been made. The CD has now been made available to the geoscience community outside Shell and can be used as any other publication. It contains examples of analogue models, illustrating geometry, fault topology and kinematics of all tectonic regimes together with seismic examples, outcrop photo’s, satellite images, 3D computed tomography scans and video-laser surface scans. Examples of modern analytical techniques such as fault extraction and curvature analysis together with 3D visualization complete the picture. Example pictures may be extracted from the CD, but can only be used in publications after permission has been obtained from Shell Rijswijk. The tectonic spectrum forms a clear, almost intuitive basis for sixty selection buttons. A few topics that cannot be covered in the spectrum such as diapirism are present as separate buttons (in the form of pebbles). As a consequence of the long time-span covered by the experiments, not all the examples shown here represent the latest techniques and views. However, we believe that this CD-ROM will provide you with an enjoyable means to quickly browse through a unique collection of experimental examples of tectonic styles collected during twenty-five years of modelling work.
Compared to an Oatmeal Breakfast, Two Eggs/Day Increased Plasma Carotenoids and Choline without Increasing Trime...

There is concern that egg intake may increase blood glucose in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, we have previously shown that eggs reduce inflammation in patients at risk for T2DM, including obese subjects and those with metabolic syndrome. Thus, we hypothesized that egg intake would not alter plasma glucose in T2DM patients when compared to oatmeal intake. Our primary endpoints for this clinical intervention were plasma glucose and the inflammatory markers tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α and interleukin 6 (IL-6). As secondary endpoints, we evaluated additional parameters of glucose metabolism, dyslipidemias, oxidative stress and inflammation. Twenty-nine subjects, 35–65 years with glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) values <9% were recruited and randomly allocated to consume isocaloric breakfasts containing either one egg/day or 40 g of oatmeal with 472 mL of lactose-free milk/day for five weeks. Following a three-week washout period, subjects were assigned to the alternate breakfast. At the end of each period, we measured all primary and secondary endpoints. Subjects completed four-day dietary recalls and one exercise questionnaire for each breakfast period. There were no significant differences in plasma glucose, our primary endpoint, plasma lipids, lipoprotein size or subfraction concentrations, insulin, HbA1c, apolipoprotein B, oxidized LDL or C-reactive protein. However, after adjusting for gender, age and body mass index, aspartate OPEN ACCESS Nutrients 2015, 7 3450 amino-transferase (AST) (p < 0.05) and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α (p < 0.01), one of our primary endpoints were significantly reduced during the egg period. These results suggest that compared to an oatmeal-based breakfast, eggs do not have any detrimental effects on lipoprotein or glucose metabolism in T2DM. In contrast, eggs reduce AST and TNF-α in this population characterized by chronic low-grade inflammation.
Dynamical Downscaling over the Great Lakes Basin of North America Using the WRF Regional Climate Model: The Impact of the Great Lakes System on Regional Greenhouse Warming

AbstractThe Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) is employed to dynamically downscale global warming projections produced using the Community Climate System Model (CCSM). The analyses are focused on the Great Lakes Basin of North America and the climate change projections extend from the instrumental period (1979–2001) to midcentury (2050–60) at a spatial resolution of 10 km. Because WRF does not currently include a sufficiently realistic lake component, simulations are performed using lake water temperature provided by D.V. Mironov’s freshwater lake model “FLake” forced by atmospheric fields from the global simulations. Results for the instrumental era are first compared with observations to evaluate the ability of the lake model to provide accurate lake water temperature and ice cover and to analyze the skill of the regional model. It is demonstrated that the regional model, with its finer resolution and more comprehensive physics, provides significantly improved results compared to those obtain.
Corpus callosum volumetrics and clinical progression in early multiple sclerosis.

OBJECTIVE Corpus callosum (CC) is commonly affected in multiple sclerosis (MS), with known association between CC atrophy and MS clinical activity. In this study, we assessed the association of callosal atrophy, lesions volume and residual CC volume with the clinical disability of early MS patients. SUBJECTS AND METHODS Thirteen MS subjects (9 female, mean age 36.9 years), studied with magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) were selected. MRI scans were performed at baseline (T0), at 6 (T1), 12 (T2), and 24 months (T3) from baseline. CC was segmented into three sections (genu, body, and splenium); callosal boundaries were outlined and all CC lesions were manually traced. Normal CC and CC lesion volumes were measured using a semiautomatic software. RESULTS From January 2014 to December 2016, all selected patients had confluent lesions on MRI at T3 with a significant increase in the size of confluent lesions compared to baseline (p=0.0007). At T1, a significant increase in the size of confluent (p=0.02) and single lesions located in the callosal body (p=0.04) was detected in patients with EDSS ≥1.5. Also, CC residual volume (CCR) rather than the whole CC volume (CCV) significantly correlated (p=0.03) with the clinical progression of MS in the whole cohort. CONCLUSIONS In early MS patients with higher EDSS at baseline, a significant increase in confluent CC lesions size is evident, particularly in the callosal body. Also, median CCR is significantly associated with MS progression in the whole MS group, regardless of initial EDSS. Given their significant association with disability, we encourage measuring CC body lesions and residual CC size for therapeutic decisions and prognostic planning in early MS.
New Methods in Cardiovascular Biology Pegylation of High-Density Lipoprotein Decreases Plasma Clearance and Enhances Antiatherogenic Activity

suppression of inflammation. 16 These results most likely relate to the ability of cholesterol-poor rHDL particles to act as highly efficient acceptors of cholesterol from macrophage foam cells and other vascular cells involved in atherogenesis 18,19 and to promote reverse cholesterol transport. 20 Animal models have revealed that raising HDL as well as reduced atherosclerosis and a stable plaque phenotype. Conclusions: We describe a novel method for effective monopegylation of apoAI in HDL particles, in which lipid binding seems to protect against pegylation of key functional residues. Pegylation of apoAI in rHDL markedly increases its plasma half-life and enhances antiatherogenic properties in vivo. ( Circ Res . 2013;113:e1-e9.) AI in HDL particles which extends its in vivo half-life. Pegylation of HDL particles can be applied to holo-HDL, reconstituted HDL and possibly peptide/lipid-complexes, increasing efficacy, decreasing dosage, and potentially reducing side effects. This approach could be applied to the treatment of atherosclerosis and myeloproliferative neoplasms. 450 (Invitrogen), Ly6-C/G-PerCP-Cy5.5 (BD Pharmigen), CD115-APC (eBioscience). Monocytes were identified as CD45 hi CD115 hi and neutrophils were identified as CD45 hi CD115 lo Ly6-C/G hi (Gr-1). BM against in cell strainer and with The cell centrifuged g for mins, supernatant aspirated and the were resuspended in RBC lysis buffer (for 5 min). Lysis was stopped by adding excess amount of flow buffer and the cell suspension was once again centrifuged, aspirated and single cell suspension was prepared by gently pipetting up and down with 200  l of flow buffer. This was followed by incubation with a cocktail of antibodies against lineage-committed cells (B220, CD19, CD11b, CD3e, CD2, CD8, CD4, Ly6-C/G: All FITC, eBioscience), Sca1-Pacific and ckit-APC Cy7. HSPCs were identified as lin - , Sac1 + and ckit + (LSK) while the hematopoietic progenitor subsets were separated by using antibodies to CD16/CD32 (Fc  RII/III) and CD34. CMPs were identified as lin - , Sca1 - , ckit + , CD34 int , Fc  RII/III int , GMPs as lin - , Sca1 - , ckit + , CD34 int , Fc  RII/III hi . Cell cycle DAPI