Spatial and temporal characteristics of carbon emission and sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems and their driving factors in mainland China—a case study of 352 prefectural administrative districts

Introduction Global climate change, increase in human activities, and prominence of ecological issues have led to uneven quantitative and spatial distributions of carbon emission and sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems. Such uneven distributions can lead to more negative impacts on the natural environment and human living conditions. Methods Therefore, based on the carbon neutralization policy, we conducted geographically weighted regression (GWR) modeling in this study using panel data from 352 Chinese prefectural administrative districts in 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2017 to analyze and determine the impact factors and their spatial distribution for carbon emission and sequestration of terrestrial ecosystems. Results Our results showed that total population (TP), per capita gross domestic product (GDP) (PCG), proportion of secondary industry output (PSIO), scale of urban built-up area (SUB), green space proportion in city areas (GSP), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and temperature (TEM) are factors driving carbon sequestration and carbon emission. The spatial distribution of these driving factors in mainland China is: (1) TP showed a negative correlation to carbon emission in most areas, while it exhibited a positive correlation to carbon sequestration in the southern, southwestern, and western parts of northwest China; however, in all other areas, TP showed a negative correlation with carbon sequestration; (2) PCG was positively correlated to carbon emission in most areas of China and to carbon sequestration in southwest, south, central, and northeast China; however, PCG demonstrated a negative correlation to carbon sequestration in the remaining areas; (3) PSIO and SUB presented a positive correlation to carbon emission and a negative correlation to carbon sequestration in most areas; (3) In contrast, GSP showed a negative correlation to carbon emission and a positive correlation to carbon sequestration in most areas; (5)NDVI showed a negative correlation to carbon emission and carbon sequestration in most areas toward the east of the “Heihe-Tengchong Line”; NDVI was positively correlated to both carbon emission and sequestration toward the west of this line; (6)TEM was positively correlated to carbon emission and sequestration in most parts of China. Discussion Based on these results, we further divided the Chinese cities into 6 groups: (1) Groups 1, 2, 3, and 6 are areas where carbon emission and sequestration are governed by both socioeconomic and natural ecological factors. The major driving factors of carbon emission and carbon sequestration in group 1 are PSIO, GSP, and NDVI; the driving factors of group 2 are SUB and NDVI. Meanwhile, carbon emission and sequestration in group 3 are governed by PCG, GSP, and NDVI; for group 6, carbon emission and sequestration are controlled by PCG, SUB, GSP, and NDVI; (2) Group 4 represents areas where carbon emission and sequestration are majorly impacted by PCG and SUB, thereby rendering socioeconomic factors as the major driving forces. Group 5 represents areas where carbon emission and sequestration are sensitive to the natural environment, with GSP and NDVI being the driving factors. Considering the uneven distribution of carbon sequestration and emission and the diverse driving factors in different areas of China, we provided guidance for future environmental policies aimed at reducing the uneven distribution of carbon sequestration and emission in different areas to achieve carbon neutralization.