Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
ICO investors

We conduct a detailed analysis of investors in successful initial coin offerings (ICOs). The average ICO has 4700 contributors. The median participant contributes small amounts and many investors sell their tokens before the underlying product is developed. Large presale investors obtain tokens at a discount and flip part of their allocation shortly after the ICO. ICO contributors lack the protections traditionally afforded to investors in early-stage financing. Nevertheless, returns 9 months after the ICO are positive on average, driven mostly by an increase in the value of the Ethereum cryptocurrency.
Employer Concentration and Outside Options

This paper studies the effect of employer concentration on wages in the United States. We make two primary new contributions. First, we develop an instrument for employer concentration, based on differential local exposure to national firm-level trends. We use the instrument to estimate the effect of plausibly exogenous variation in employer concentration on wages across the large majority of U.S. occupations and metropolitan areas. Second, we adopt a flexible “probabilistic” approach to labor market definition, identifying relevant job options outside a worker’s own occupation using new occupational mobility data constructed from 16 million resumes, and estimate the effect of these outside-occupation options on wages. We find that moving from the median to the 95th percentile of employer concentration reduces wages by 3%. But we also reveal substantial heterogeneity: the effect of employer concentration is at least four times higher for low outward mobility occupations than those with high outward mobility. Since the majority of U.S. workers are not in highly concentrated labor markets, the aggregate effects of concentration on wages do not appear large enough to have substantial explanatory power for income inequality or wage stagnation. Nonetheless, our estimates suggest that a material subset of workers experience meaningful negative wage effects from employer labor market power. Our findings imply that labor market regulatory agencies and antitrust authorities should take employer concentration seriously, but that measures of employer concentration – typically calculated for narrowly defined occupational labor markets – need to be adjusted to incorporate the availability and quality of job options outside the focal occupation.
Is Z+(4430) a loosely bound molecular state? (9 pages)

Since Z{sup +}(4430) lies very close to the threshold of D*D{sub 1}, we investigate whether Z{sup +}(4430) could be a loosely bound S-wave state of D*D{sub 1} or D*D{sub 1}{sup '} with J{sup P}=0{sup -},1{sup -},2{sup -}, i.e., a molecular state arising from the one-pion-exchange potential. The potential from the crossed diagram is much larger than that from the diagonal scattering diagram. With various trial wave functions, we notice that the attraction from the one-pion-exchange potential alone is not strong enough to form a bound state with realistic pionic coupling constants deduced from the decay widths of D{sub 1} and D{sub 1}{sup '}.
Do Driving Apps Promote Safe Driving? An Empirical Analysis Using Sensor Data

Driving apps have proliferated in the market, for the purpose of collecting personal driving information. Amid the public’s concern about privacy protection, developers often market these apps as helpful tools for safe driving, sometimes by incorporating reward programs. In this research, we examine app developers’ marketing offers using device-tracking data from a Chinese tech start-up. We find that the app improves driving only when the reward incentive is significantly high. The driving improvement in our context is comparable to that found in other usage-based insurance studies. When the incentive drops, users react by dramatically reducing driving quality. However, the improvement is hardly sustainable, with the analysis revealing that it is mainly driven by reward saturation due to the daily realization of small rewards. When the incentive is low, users show little improvement after the initial period, followed by a continuous deterioration in driving quality due to the mere monitoring effect. Consumer heterogeneity moderates the effect. Users with high incomes and living in a congested city are less sensitive to the reward.
Reassessing the Firm Selection Hypothesis: New Evidence from Chinese Highways

This paper re-investigates whether larger cities eliminate more low-productivity firms, the so-called firm selection hypothesis. We exploit a huge boom of infrastructure construction in China during 1998-2007. We find that in coastal provinces, when we compare large cities to small cities which are not connected by controlled-access highways, the firm selection is apparent; however, comparing large cities to small ones which are connected by highways, the firm selection disappears. This result suggests that market size is dictated not so much by geography (city boundaries), but rather by transportation costs. The estimated effects of firm selection are robust to the potential endogeneity of highway construction. Evidence for firm selection is absent in inland provinces, perhaps because the market economy was relatively poorly developed in those areas during our study period.
Measuring Macroeconomic Uncertainty: The Labor Channel of Uncertainty from a Cross-Country Perspective

This paper constructs internationally consistent measures of macroeconomic uncertainty. Our econometric framework extracts uncertainty from revisions in data obtained from standardized national accounts. Applying our model to quarterly post-WWII real-time data, we estimate macroeconomic uncertainty for 39 countries. The cross-country dimension of our uncertainty data allows us to identify the effects of uncertainty shocks on economic activity under different employment protection legislation. Our empirical findings suggest that the effects of uncertainty shocks are stronger and more persistent in countries with low employment protection compared to countries with high employment protection. These empirical findings are in line with a theoretical model under varying firing cost.
Using Personality Assessment and Situational Queries to Understand Risk Tolerance in Emerging Adults

We extend the work of Pan and Statman (2013) by investigating correlations between personality traits and risk tolerance among emerging adults. We score respondents on the Big Five personality traits: extraversion, agreeableness, conscientiousness, neuroticism, and openness. We then analyze correlations between these traits and reported characteristics of risk tolerance: overconfidence, maximization, regret, trust, life satisfaction, and the propensity to attribute success to luck over skill. We find correlations that describe relationships between conscientiousness and the propensity to attribute success to luck over skill, as well as a lack of overconfidence; between openness and the propensity for maximization; and between neuroticism and the propensity for overconfidence. We underscore the nuanced dimensions of investor preferences. We discuss neuroticism and its effects on self-reporting in the context of risk assessment and financial consulting.
The Effect of Lender Expectations Management on Mandatory Management Forecasts: Evidence from Cash Flow Forecasts by Early-Stage Mining Firms

The objective of this study is to investigate whether management forecasts characteristics change around key debt financing events to meet expectations of debt holders. Examining a large sample of mandatory management forecasts of quarterly expenditure disclosed by early-stage mining companies, we find project finance approval results in managers increasing overestimates of cash outflows or creating ‘budget slack. ’ This is consistent with managers using forecasts to ‘underpromise and overdeliver’ during project development.
Thermodynamic Properties of 1-Ethyl-3-methylimidazolium Bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide

(p,ρ,T) data of 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium bis(trifluoromethylsulfonyl)imide [EMIM][NTf2] at T = (283.15 to 373.15) K and pressures up to p = 100 MPa are reported with an estimated experimental relative combined standard uncertainty of Δρ/ρ = ± (0.01 to 0.08) % in density. The measurements were carried out with a newly constructed Anton Paar DMA HPM vibration-tube densimeter. The system was calibrated using double-distilled water, methanol, toluene and aqueous NaCl solutions. An empiric equation of state for fitting of the (p,ρ,T) data of [EMIM][NTf2] has been developed as a function of pressure and temperature. This equation was used for the calculation of the thermal properties of IL, such as isothermal compressibility, isobaric thermal expansibility, differences in isobaric and isochoric heat capacities, thermal pressure coefficient, and internal pressure.
Monetary Policy Rules and the Effective Lower Bound in the Euro Area

We analyze the economic performance of different monetary policy strategies, or rules, in a low interest rate environment, using simulations with a DSGE model which has been estimated for the euro area. We study how often the effective lower bound of interest rates (ELB) is likely to bind, and how much forgone monetary policy accommodation this entails. Macroeconomic outcomes are measured by the mean levels and the volatility of output (gaps), unemployment and inflation. We present three sets of results. First, the macroeconomic costs of the ELB are likely to grow in a non-linear manner if the monetary policy space (the difference between the normal, or average, level of nominal interest rates and the ELB) shrinks. Second, a point inflation target appears to outperform a target range. Third, the (relative) performance of low-for-long (L4L) monetary policy rules depends on the size of the monetary policy space. The L4L rules tend to perform well, if the monetary space is small, but if the space is larger these rules, while stabilizing inflation, may lead to more volatility in the real economy than flexible inflation targeting.
Global Impacts of Us Monetary Policy Uncertainty Shocks

We build a new empirical model to estimate the global impact of an increase in the volatility of US monetary policy shocks. Specifically, we admit time-varying variances of local structural shocks from a stochastic volatility specification. By allowing for rich dynamic interaction between the endogenous variables and time-varying volatility in the global setting, we find that US interest rate uncertainty not only drives local output and inflation volatility, but also causes declines in output, inflation, and the interest rate. Moreover, we document strong global impacts, making the world move in a very synchronous way. Crucially, spillback effects are found to be significant even for the US economy.
Tracking Inattention

This study proposes a real-time estimate of inattention, based on micro-level data. I show that a simple specification that estimates the persistence of a forecaster's deviation from the mean provides a direct estimate of parameters of information frictions according to prominent models of expectations. The new estimate can also be interpreted as a hybrid measure of both information frictions and behavioral frictions. Using the new specification, I revise several key findings documented in the previous literature. I find higher levels of inattention and document new forms of variations over time and across variables, horizons, individuals, and types of agents. I also report new results from long-run forecasts and document an unprecedented response to COVID-19.
Social Inclusion: A Poverty Reduction Approach

This study, social inclusion: a poverty reduction approach, using descriptive research method, examines the relationship between social exclusion, social inclusion and poverty. It is amongst the findings of this study that social exclusion is not just a major cause of poverty but a key factor in poverty severity. However, social inclusion, as a means to ending poverty in Nigeria, can be achieved through creation of employment opportunities, access to education and skills acquisition as well as minimizing social exclusion.
Politically Motivated Intergovernmental Transfers in Russia: The Case of the 2018 FIFA World Cup

This paper studies the distribution of politically motivated intergovernmental transfers in Russia focusing on the case of the 2018 FIFA World Cup. It investigates what factors have accounted for the selection of the 2018 FIFA World Cup venues. Qualitative Comparative Analysis of 14 cases reveals that well-connected political elites were able to secure the right for their regions to host the championship and, as a result, to extract additional funds from the center. These findings are in line with the argument that the regional governments in Russia play an important role in the distribution of politically sensitive transfers. Taking into account that these transfers have been increasing over the past years, there is no surprise that the regional elites have developed various lobbying strategies and mechanisms for attracting them.
The Geography and Determinants of ADR Holdings

We analyze institutional ownership in listed ADRs over the last two decades and investigate new determinants of institutional ownership in these ADRs. Using a unique dataset, we find that institutional investors invest more in ADRs without underlying stocks listed in the home market (i.e., single ADRs). We also document that institutional investors invest less in ADRs whose underlying stocks attract more foreign investors, and invest more in ADRs with more concentrated institutional ownership structure. Our results are statistically and economically meaningful and are robust to a battery of sensitivity checks.
Liquidity Spillovers: Evidence from Two-Step Spinoffs

How does an idiosyncratic shock to the liquidity of a stock affect the liquidity and prices of its related stocks? Utilizing the unique features of two-step spinoffs, we document strong evidence that the increased liquidity of spun-off firms spills over to their industry peers after the spinoffs. The liquidity spillovers across firms lead to value spillovers as well. The improved liquidity also induces larger institutional holdings in those stocks. The results provide support for the notion that the prices of spun-off firms provide additional public information about the related firms, thereby ameliorating information asymmetry in those firms.
Life Insurance Convexity

Life insurers massively sell savings policies that guarantee minimum withdrawal payouts. When market interest rates increase, these guarantees become in-the-money. Hence, an increase in interest rates leads to more withdrawals of life insurance policies. We document this effect by exploiting partly hand-collected insurer-level data covering more than two decades. A one-standard deviation increase in interest rates relates to an increase in withdrawal rates by roughly 0.35 standard deviations. As a result, the duration of life insurance policies decreases with higher interest rates. A reduction in duration implies that life insurers may be forced to sell assets when interest rates rise. We build a granular model of life insurers' cash flows to estimate the resulting price impact and fire sale costs. Under plausible assumptions, the model predicts that forced sales reduce asset prices by up to 1% and reduce insurers' equity capital by up to 15bps. Forced sales are primarily driven by insurers' long-dated assets investments, which slow down an increase in policy returns when interest rates rise.
Domestic Demand and Exports: Evidence from Turkish Firms

Abstract This study examines the relationship between real domestic sales and real exports for Turkish manufacturing firms. Dynamic panel data estimations based on firm-level data for the period 2004–2014 suggest that the two variables are substitutes. Other factors held constant, we estimate that a 10 percent decline in real domestic sales is associated with around 2.7 percent increase in real exports, on average. However, this relationship varies among manufacturing sub-sectors which are defined according to 2-digit NACE classification. Results indicate that substitutability between domestic and foreign sales is stronger for export-oriented, low-leveraged and younger firms and firms that operate in sectors whose exports are less import-dependent. Besides, the degree of substitution between the two variables significantly rises when domestic demand conditions are weak. This shows that exporter firms in the Turkish manufacturing industry can shift from domestic to international markets as a response to domestic demand shocks.
The Change in the Aggregate Earnings-Returns Relation and the Great Moderation

This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of the causes of a recent structural change in the aggregate earnings-returns relation (from negative to positive). We do this by rigorously estimating the date of the structural change and then, by examining intertemporal variation in the news components, as well as those in the expected components, of both aggregate earnings and returns. We also discuss how sources of the change in the relation are related to the Great Moderation, i.e., a reduction in the economy-wide macroeconomic uncertainty that started in the mid-1980s and affected the stock market since the early 1990s. The sources that we identify include i) an increase in the relative importance of cash flow news contained in stock returns; ii) a decrease in the importance of discount rate news contained in aggregate earnings; and iii) a decrease in the persistence or the predictability of aggregate earnings and returns. Our findings suggest that reduced macroeconomic uncertainty provides a comprehensive explanation for the change in the aggregate earnings-returns relation.
A Micro-Investigation of the Reasons Behind the Slowdown of Demographic Transition in Egypt: Will Egypt Witness a Demographic Window?

The paper investigates the factors behind the slowdown in demographic transition in Egypt across different geographical and socio-economic groups. The authors relax the assumption of a uniform fertility behavior across households and re-visit interrelationships between demography and economic indicators from a micro perspective. Empirical findings reject mainstream beliefs that slow demographic transition in Egypt is attributed to the poorer, south-located and less-educated households. Fertility behaviors in Urban Egypt and among the high-educated females are found to be key contributors to the slowdown of demographic transition. Unemployment among the high-educated females in addition to lower public and foreign spending on family planning that accompanied political instabilities following January 25th revolution escalated the demographic pressures further. These findings have implications on the appropriate future demographic policies needed to speed up demographic transition in Egypt.
The Contemporaneous Impact of Air Pollution on Medical Expenditure: Evidence from Beijing

We identify the contemporaneous effects of PM2.5 concentrations on medical costs in Beijing by analyzing two datasets: one detailing daily air quality indexes over a four-year period, and the other detailing individual-level records of all hospital visits and medical transactions under a government insurance program that covers most city residents. We find that both higher levels of air pollution and longer-lasting pollution episodes significantly increase daily hospital visits and medical expenditures. The elderly bear a disproportionately larger percentage of the increases in hospital treatments and expenditures, especially through out-of-pocket costs. Analysis of multiple-day pollution episodes shows that marginal health costs and marginal hospital visits start to increase significantly once high levels of air pollution continue for a second day. Our findings provide empirical evidence that the intensity and duration of air pollution are critical considerations in policy design.
The Portfolio Composition Effect

This study asks whether a simple, counting-based measure of performance, which is the fraction of winner stocks in a portfolio, affects people&apos;s willingness to invest in the portfolio. We find experimental evidence that indicates that individuals allocate larger investments to portfolios with larger fractions of winner stocks, albeit alternative portfolios have realized identical overall portfolio returns and show identical expected risk-return characteristics. Building on our experimental findings, we show empirically that the proposed composition measure also matters for the demand of leading equity market index funds. A framework which combines category-based thinking and mental accounting can explain the effect.
Credit Allocation and Macroeconomic Fluctuations

We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 countries starting in 1940. Theory predicts that the sectoral allocation of credit matters for distinguishing between “good” and “bad” credit booms. We test the prediction that lending to households and the non-tradable sector, relative to the tradable sector, contributes to macroeconomic boom-bust cycles by (i) fueling unsustainable demand booms, (ii) increasing financial fragility, and (iii) misallocating resources across sectors. We show that credit to non-tradable sectors, including construction and real estate, is associated with a boom-bust pattern in output, similar to household credit booms. Such lending booms also predict elevated financial crisis risk and productivity slowdowns. In contrast, tradable-sector credit expansions are followed by stable output and productivity growth without a higher risk of a financial crisis. Our findings highlight that what credit is used for is important for understanding macro-financial linkages.
Adverse Climate Incidents and Bank Loan Contracting

We investigate how a borrower’s adverse climate-related incidents affect bank loan contracting. Using a sample of 2,622 publicly traded US firms over the period 2000–2016, we construct event-based measures of corporate climate performances based on firm-level adverse climate incidents such as oil spills, excess carbon emissions and deforestation projects. We show that loans initiated after the occurrence of firms’ first adverse climate-related incidents have significantly higher spreads, shorter maturities, more covenant restrictions, and higher likelihood of being secured with collateral. In cross-sectional tests, we find that the intensity and influence of adverse climate-related incidents exacerbate the pricing of bank loans. Our results support the notion that banks incorporate firm-specific climate performance into their lending contracts.
NOTE: An Equilibrium Asset Pricing Model for Stocks and Bonds under Growth and Inflation Risks

This technical note details an equilibrium asset pricing model for stocks and bonds under economic growth and inflation uncertainties using the Epstein and Zin preferences. Specifically, the results show that both equity and bond risk premiums are priced by growth and inflation uncertainties. This note provides a theoretical justification on the common industry choice of considering growth and inflation as the underlying drivers for assets' returns.