Financial Resources and Technology to Transition to 450mm Semiconductor Wafer Foundries

Financial Resources and Technology to Transition to 450mm Semiconductor Wafer Foundries by Thomas Earl Pastore E.M. B.A., Northwestern University – Chulalongkorn University, 2000 B.S.E.E. , Arizona State University, 1990 E.T. , DeVry University, 1978 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Applied Management and Decision Science Walden University November 2014 Abstract Future 450mm semiconductor wafer foundries are expected to produce billions of low cost, leading-edge processors, memories, and wireless sensors for Internet of Everything applications in smart cities, smart grids, and smart infrastructures. The problem has been a lack of wise investment decision making using traditional semiconductor industry models. The purpose of this study was to design decision-making models to conserve financial resources from conception to commercialization using real options to optimize production capacity, to defer an investment, and to abandon the project. The study consisted of 4 research questions that compared net present value from real option closed-form equations and binomial lattice models using the Black-Scholes option pricing theory. Three had focused on sensitivity parameters. Moore’s second law was applied to find the total foundry cost. Data were collected using snowball sampling and face-to-face surveys. Original survey data from 46 Americans in the U.S.A. were compared to 46 Europeans in Germany. Data were analyzed with a paired-difference test and the Box-Behnken design was employed to create prediction models to support each hypothesis. Data from the real option models and survey findings indicate AmericanFuture 450mm semiconductor wafer foundries are expected to produce billions of low cost, leading-edge processors, memories, and wireless sensors for Internet of Everything applications in smart cities, smart grids, and smart infrastructures. The problem has been a lack of wise investment decision making using traditional semiconductor industry models. The purpose of this study was to design decision-making models to conserve financial resources from conception to commercialization using real options to optimize production capacity, to defer an investment, and to abandon the project. The study consisted of 4 research questions that compared net present value from real option closed-form equations and binomial lattice models using the Black-Scholes option pricing theory. Three had focused on sensitivity parameters. Moore’s second law was applied to find the total foundry cost. Data were collected using snowball sampling and face-to-face surveys. Original survey data from 46 Americans in the U.S.A. were compared to 46 Europeans in Germany. Data were analyzed with a paired-difference test and the Box-Behnken design was employed to create prediction models to support each hypothesis. Data from the real option models and survey findings indicate American 450mm foundries will likely capture greater value and will choose the differentiation strategy to produce premium chips, whereas higher capacity, cost leadership European foundries will produce commodity chips. Positive social change and global quality of life improvements are expected to occur by 2020 when semiconductors will be needed for the $14 trillion Internet of Everything market to create safe self-driving vehicles, autonomous robots, smart homes, novel medical electronics, wearable computers with streaming augmented reality information, and digital wallets for cashless societies. Financial Resources and Technology to Transition to 450mm Semiconductor Wafer Foundries by Thomas Earl Pastore E.M. B.A., Northwestern University – Chulalongkorn University, 2000 B.S.E.E. , Arizona State University, 1990 E.T. , DeVry University, 1978 Dissertation Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Applied Management and Decision Science Walden University November 2014 Dedication This work is dedicated to my wife, Kazuko, for constantly supporting my academic advancements despite some hardships. This work is also dedicated to my daughters Maria, Mariko, and Kaori; hopefully they too will someday understand. This work transpired with thoughts of my father, William Pastore, a valiant U.S. Marine. My last memories of him were in the vast beauty of Arlington National Cemetery on May 28, 2009, as the motorcade proceeded down Eisenhower Drive past Section 60, where soldiers with valor from Afghanistan and Iraq were buried. Along the tree-lined Bradley Drive, the motorcade arrived at Section 64 where a detachment of Marines in crisp uniforms were awaiting a war hero. Marines under the direction of the Gunnery Sergeant carried William Pastore with the American flag draped over the coffin past a large tree to grave 64-5943 within a beautiful open clearing. Close by, a lone bugler played taps as the Marines folded the American flag with extreme precision. Farther away, the rifle detachment saluted William with three volleys, after which the Catholic military Chaplin recited from the Bible. The Marine Corps Gunnery Sergeant presented the triangular Stars and Stripes and the spent rounds to me with Kazuko at my side. Nearby was the 9/11 Pentagon Group Burial marker. In the distance, there was the Washington Monument at the left and the Pentagon to the right. As this paper transpired, I had similar memories of my uncle, my father’s older brother, Robert Pastor, also a U.S. Marine in World War II and a leader of several Elks Lodges. He had just recently passed away. Finally, my mother, Ellen Pastore, a skillful artist, had passed away a little more than a year ago. Acknowledgments Thanks to my Professor Dr. Jeff Prinster, a retired USMC Lieutenant Colonel, for his generous support. Thanks for the many enjoyable conversations and lessons you gave during the 2006 Walden University residency at Universidad Europea de Madrid in Spain. Dr. Prinster encouraged me on my data collection quest in Europe with the mantra, “Lock and Load! Attack with Passion! Onward and Upward! Semper Fidelis! ” Thanks to Professor Dr. William Brent, a retired USN Lieutenant Commander, for overseeing my real option work and for being my mentor spanning from KAM 1 to KAM 7. Thanks to Professor Dr. Aqueil Ahmad for his support and classes at the 2008 Walden University residency at Universidad Andres Bello-Republica in Santiago, Chile. Thanks to Dave Burgess, Hewlett Packard (HP Labs), for being my semiconductor failure analysis mentor. Thanks to Roy Currence, for being a great friend and mentor, for providing an internship at Xerox, a great Sr. engineering project, and for encouragement throughout my academic and professional career. Thanks to Dr. Glenn Possley, President of Alphatec Submicron (a 200mm wafer fab), for making life better for my family in Thailand, for many conversations about constructing Thailand’s first 200mm wafer foundry, and for snowball sampling support. Thanks to Robert DiChiara, a Boeing Research and Technology Technical Fellow, for many hours of discussions, support, and problem solving with response surface methods, Taguchi methods, design of experiment software, and Apple computers. Thanks to Randy Brandt, a Boeing Research and Technology Associate Technical Fellow, for his support and Mathcad conversations. Thanks to Tom Webb, for his trust, recognition, and generous support at Boeing.