Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Causal Dynamic Variational Autoencoder for Counterfactual Regression in Longitudinal Data

Estimating treatment effects over time is relevant in many real-world applications, such as precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. Many state-of-the-art methods either assume the observations of all confounders or seek to infer the unobserved ones. We take a different perspective by assuming unobserved risk factors, i.e., adjustment variables that affect only the sequence of outcomes. Under unconfoundedness, we target the Individual Treatment Effect (ITE) estimation with unobserved heterogeneity in the treatment response due to missing risk factors. We address the challenges posed by time-varying effects and unobserved adjustment variables. Led by theoretical results over the validity of the learned adjustment variables and generalization bounds over the treatment effect, we devise Causal DVAE (CDVAE). This model combines a Dynamic Variational Autoencoder (DVAE) framework with a weighting strategy using propensity scores to estimate counterfactual responses. The CDVAE model allows for accurate estimation of ITE and captures the underlying heterogeneity in longitudinal data. Evaluations of our model show superior performance over state-of-the-art models.
Deep‐tow studies of the overlapping spreading centers at 9°03′N on the East Pacific Rise

The deeply-towed instrument package of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography was used to study for the first time the fine scale structure of an overlapping spreading center (OSC) system: the 9°03’N OSC on the East Pacific Rise (EPR). The eastern and western limbs of this OSC system which are 8 km apart and overlap by 27 km show marked differences. Away from the tips, the spreading centers are highly tectonized and differ greatly from the ridge tips. The western ridge tip exhibits a few fissures but no sign of recent volcanic activity whereas the eastern ridge tip is highly fissured and has experienced more recent volcanic episodes which are confined to a narrow zone within this highly fissured area. In both cases, the ridge tip fissures are 10°–15° oblique to the strike of the faults that occur on the flanks of the adjacent portion of the opposite spreading axis, indicating a recent change in the direction of deviatoric tension and suggesting that the eastern and western spreading centers have been propagating southward and northward respectively. The eastern ridge tip fissures are transecting the flank of the western spreading axis suggesting that the eastern spreading center is about to become the through-going trace of the East Pacific Rise. In contrast, the western spreading center disappears into abyssal hill terrain that was presumably created at the eastern ridge axis. Some of the very few tectonic features observed in the overlap basin may reflect the existence of a short-lived shear couple due to the interaction of the two overlapping spreading centers. Sediment cover over the whole area and especially in the overlap basin is relatively thick, supporting the idea of a time-averaged deficit in the magmatic budget at this OSC. We suggest that the 9°03’N OSC developed where two magmatic pulses, independent in space and time and propagating along the strike of the East Pacific Rise away from the loci of melt emplacement, failed to meet. Misalignment of the magmatic conduits resulted in the propagation of the two spreading centers past each other and the development of the ensuing OSC geometry. Independent lines of evidence derived from the three-dimensional inversion of the magnetic field at the 9°03’N OSC (Sempere et al., 1984), from numerical modelling of the growth of two en echelon elastic cracks in a tensile stress field (Sempere and Macdonald, 1986) and from geochemical data (Langmuir et al., 1986) support our interpretation of the Deep-Tow data. We suggest that deviations from axial linearity of the spreading centers (DEVALs; Langmuir et al., 1986) and small nonoverlapping offsets (SNOOs; Batiza and Margolis, 1986) are simply local lows or saddle points along the axial depth profile that arise when two magmatic pulses propagating toward one another meet head on. OSCs and some saddle points (i.e., DEVALs, SNOOs) are all small, rapidly evolving ridge axis discontinuities which may represent the surficial expression of the distal ends of small scale longitudinal convection cells beneath the East Pacific Rise.
Decoherence is an echo of Anderson localization in open quantum systems

We study the time evolution of single-particle quantum states described by a Lindblad master equation with local terms. By means of a geometric resolvent equation derived for Lindblad generators, we establish a finite-volume-type criterion for the decay of the off-diagonal matrix elements in the position basis of the time-evolved or steady states. This criterion is shown to yield exponential decay for systems where the non-hermitian evolution is either gapped or strongly disordered. The gap exists for example whenever any level of local dephasing is present in the system. The result in the disordered case can be viewed as an extension of Anderson localization to open quantum systems.
Prior-Free Continual Learning with Unlabeled Data in the Wild

Continual Learning (CL) aims to incrementally update a trained model on new tasks without forgetting the acquired knowledge of old ones. Existing CL methods usually reduce forgetting with task priors, \ie using task identity or a subset of previously seen samples for model training. However, these methods would be infeasible when such priors are unknown in real-world applications. To address this fundamental but seldom-studied problem, we propose a Prior-Free Continual Learning (PFCL) method, which learns new tasks without knowing the task identity or any previous data. First, based on a fixed single-head architecture, we eliminate the need for task identity to select the task-specific output head. Second, we employ a regularization-based strategy for consistent predictions between the new and old models, avoiding revisiting previous samples. However, using this strategy alone often performs poorly in class-incremental scenarios, particularly for a long sequence of tasks. By analyzing the effectiveness and limitations of conventional regularization-based methods, we propose enhancing model consistency with an auxiliary unlabeled dataset additionally. Moreover, since some auxiliary data may degrade the performance, we further develop a reliable sample selection strategy to obtain consistent performance improvement. Extensive experiments on multiple image classification benchmark datasets show that our PFCL method significantly mitigates forgetting in all three learning scenarios. Furthermore, when compared to the most recent rehearsal-based methods that replay a limited number of previous samples, PFCL achieves competitive accuracy. Our code is available at: https://github.com/visiontao/pfcl
Dinoflagellate Cysts as Indicators of Cultural Eutrophication in the Oslofjord, Norway

Dinoflagellate cyst records were analysed from four sediment cores from the inner Oslofjord. The cores covered the pre-industrial period, and the most important period of human population growth associated with industrial development of the region, from the mid-1800s to the present, including the reported development of cultural eutrophication. Comparisons between the cyst records and the known history of eutrophication suggest cyst signals that should prove useful for tracing the development of eutrophication. The eutrophication signal consisted of a doubling of total cyst concentration, and a marked increase in one species in particular,Lingulodinium machaerophorum(from <5 to around 50% of the assemblages) with increased eutrophication. In the core considered most representative of general water quality in the inner fjord, these trends reversed back to pre-industrial levels during the 1980s and 1990s when improved sewage treatment took effect.
Homology and K-theory of dynamical systems. IV. Further structural results on groupoid homology

We consider the homology theory of \'etale groupoids introduced by Crainic and Moerdijk, with particular interest to groupoids arising from topological dynamical systems. We prove a K\"unneth formula for products of groupoids and a Poincar\'e-duality type result for groupoids which are principal with orbits homeomorphic to a Euclidean space. We conclude with a few example computations for systems associated to nilpotent groups such as self-similar actions, and we generalize previous homological calculations by Burke and Putnam for systems which are analogues of solenoids arising from algebraic numbers. For the latter systems, we prove the HK conjecture, even when the resulting groupoid is not ample.
Waiting for Affordable Housing in New York

and seminar participants at numerous conferences and workshops for comments. Sieg would like to thank the National Science Foundation for financial support (NSF SES-0958705). Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Abstract The purpose of this paper is to develop and estimate a new dynamic equilibrium model of housing markets for low-and moderate-income households. Our model is consistent with the key supply restrictions and search frictions that arise in the markets for public and rent regulated housing. We provide conditions that guarantee that a stationary equilibrium with rationing exists and characterize the properties of the queuing process in public housing. We estimate the model using data from Manhattan collected by the New York Housing Vacancy Survey in 2011. We find that having access to public housing increases household welfare by up to 17 percent. The estimated average time on the waitlist for Manhattan is approximately 18 years. The search frictions in the market for rent stabilized imply an average search time of 4 years. Finally, we study the welfare effects of policies aimed at reducing the mismatch in public housing by strictly enforcing eligibility criteria. We show that these policies can lead to a 25 percent decline in average wait times.
Un nuevo criterio para sexar Mirlos Acuáticos Cinclus cinclus en la Península Ibérica

A new criteria to sex European Dippers Cinclus cinclus in the Iberian Peninsula Altogether 231 European Dippers Cinclus cinclus from the Iberian Peninsula were measured and sexed using molecular methods. The Dippers were captured in four different areas of Spain that can be grouped into two large regions according to their morphological characteristics: the South (Sierra Nevada Mountains); and the rest of Spain (Western Pyrenees, Cantabrian Mountains and Central Mountains). Logistical regression considering the length of the third primary, body mass and geographical area as explanatory variables provided a formula for classifying the Dippers into males and females, with a misclassification error of 1.3%, lower than those obtained with other criteria in other European studies.
Propagation of signals in basin‐scale ocean bottom pressure from a barotropic model

[1] The exchange of atmospheric plus oceanic mass between ocean basins is investigated using a global barotropic ocean model. We find two particular cases of exchange between two basins. At periods of 4–6 days, the exchange is between the Atlantic and Pacific basins, and represents a known oscillation forced by atmospheric pressure. This mode represents a failure of the inverse-barometer relationship due to the large scale and high frequency of atmospheric forcing, and the presence of continents. Significant exchange between Atlantic and Pacific also occurs at longer periods. The second case is most prominent at periods longer than 30 days (strongest at periods longer than 100 days), and represents a mass exchange between the Southern Ocean and the Pacific. The Southern Ocean part of this exchange is clearly related to the Southern Mode of fluctuations in Antarctic circumpolar transport, forced by Southern Ocean wind stress. The reason for the exchange being with the Pacific rather than other basins is explored, and is found to be related to the balance of wind stress by form stress in Drake Passage: exchange with the Atlantic and Indian oceans becomes dominant if Drake Passage topography is removed. While recognizing the limitations of a barotropic model, we contend that it is necessary to understand the barotropic adjustment process in order to make sense of longer timescale processes. Accordingly, we end with speculation on the possible importance of the barotropic results for global sea level and tropical dynamics.
The influence of saccades on yaw gaze stabilization in fly flight

In a way analogous to human vision, the fruit fly D. melanogaster and many other flying insects generate smooth and saccadic movements to stabilize and shift their gaze in flight, respectively. It has been hypothesized that this combination of continuous and discrete movements benefits both flight stability and performance, particularly at high frequencies or visual motion speeds [1]. Here we develop a hybrid control system model to explore the effects of saccades on the yaw gaze stabilization reflex of D. melanogaster. Inspired from experimental studies, the model includes a first order plant, a Proportional-Integral (PI) continuous controller, and a saccadic reset system that fires based on the integrated error of the continuous controller. We explore the gain, delay and switching threshold parameter space to quantify the optimum regions for yaw stability and performance. We show that the addition of saccades to a continuous controller provides benefits to both stability and performance across a range of visual motion speeds. Our model suggests that Drosophila operates near its optimal switching threshold for its experimental gain set. We also show that based on experimental data, D. melanogaster operates in a region that trades off performance and stability. This trade-off increases flight robustness, which could facilitate compensation for internal perturbations such as wing damage.
Solar wind control of the terrestrial magnetotail as seen by STEREO

At the beginning of 2007 the twin STEREO spacecraft provided a unique opportunity to study the global solar wind control of the terrestrial magnetotail under typical solar activity minimum conditions. The STEREO‐B (STB) spacecraft flew in the vicinity of the far terrestrial magnetotail, while the STEREO‐A (STA) spacecraft was located in front of the Earth performing measurements in the undisturbed solar wind. In February, the STB spacecraft was located in the magnetosheath most of the time but experienced several incursions into the distant magnetotail. Comparison of STA and STB observations determines unambiguously whether solar wind events such as energetic particle enhancements observed by STB are of pure solar origin or due to the influence of the terrestrial magnetosphere. During this time period in 2007, there were solar minimum conditions with alternating fast and slow solar wind streams that formed corotating interaction regions, which were the dominating source of magnetospheric disturbances encountering the Earth almost every week. Under these conditions, STB experienced multiple bow shock and magnetopause crossings due to the induced highly dynamic behavior of the terrestrial magnetotail and detected bursts of tailward directed energetic ions in the range of 110–2200 keV accompanied by suprathermal electrons of ~700–1500 eV, which were not seen in the undisturbed solar wind by STA. The corotating interaction regions triggered these energetic particle enhancements, and we demonstrate their magnetosphere‐related origin. Even after leaving the magnetosheath in March 2007, STB continued to observe antisunward directed energetic ion bursts until May up to a distance of ~ 800 RE behind Earth, the largest distance to which solar wind and magnetospheric interaction has been observed. These results show that Earth is a very significant source of energetic particles in its local interplanetary environment.
Emissions of Methane, Nitrous Oxide, and other Trace Gases from Rice fields in China

We measured the emissions of methane, nitrous oxide, and other environmentally important trace gases from rice fields in China. The experiments were conducted near Beijing, representing temperate latitude rice agriculture, and at Guangzhou, representing tropical and subtropical agriculture. These studies complement our intensive research at Tu Zu in China (subtropical) and the work near Bogor, Indonesia, representing tropical rice agriculture. The experiments described here span 5 years between 1992 and 1996. The seasonally averaged methane emissions from Beijing were about 9 (5–16) mg m−2 h−1. Emissions from the first crop of the year at Guangzhou were about 5 (2–8) mg m−2 h−1 and about 30 (18–54) mg m−2 h−1 from the second crop. Measurements of nitrous oxide fluxes from the same rice fields show that emissions are confined to events that consist of high fluxes decaying to zero within a few days. Some of the events appear to be triggered by fertilizer applications. It is apparent that rice fields using nitrogen-based fertilizers are a source of N2O, but a robust estimate of whole season average emission rate is still not possible. The composite of all the N2O fluxes we observed gives a geometric mean of about 70 μg m−2 h−1. These rates are high enough to suggest that the rice fields could be a globally important source of N2O. As the agricultural practices change from use of organic fertilizers to nitrogen-based fertilizers, the role of N2O emissions from rice fields may become more important in its global budget. We also observed that chloroform and carbon monoxide were emitted from all fields studied. The flux of CO is not large enough to be important on the global scale, but the emissions of chloroform may be.
The ultimate pullout capacity of anchors in frictional soils

During the last 30 years various researchers have proposed approximate techniques to estimate the uplift capacity of soil anchors. As the majority of past research has been experimentally based, much current design practice is based on empiricism. Somewhat surprisingly, very few numerical analyses have been performed to determine the ultimate pullout loads of anchors. This paper presents the results of a rigorous numerical study to estimate the ultimate pullout load for vertical and horizontal plate anchors in frictional soils. Rigorous bounds have been obtained using two numerical procedures that are based on finite element formulations of the upper and lower bound theorems of limit analysis. For comparison purposes, numerical estimates of the break-out factor have also been obtained using the more conventional displacement finite element method. Results are presented in the familiar form of break-out factors based on various soil strength profiles and geometries and are compared with existing numerical .
Contact Mapping From Gridded Magnetic Data–a Comparison of Techniques

Delineating the edges of magnetized bodies is a fundamental application of magnetic data to geological mapping in areas of limited exposure. Especially in Pre-Cambrian shield-like regions, locating lateral changes in magnetization of the outcropping crystalline rocks provides spatial information that is crucial in extending mapped geology into sparsely exposed or completely covered areas. Although not all magnetic contacts correspond to lithological contacts, the former provide key information on structural regimes, deformation styles and trends, and magnetic texture. Many techniques for contact mapping have been developed, some originally based on profile (2D) data and others designed specifically for grid-based (3D) data sets. Here, we evaluate five methods applied to gridded data. The first three are based on finding maxima of the horizontal gradient magnitude of the total field (TF-hgm), tilt (TI-hgm), and pseudogravity (PSG-hgm). The fourth and fifth methods rely on locating maxima of the analytic signal (AS) and the 3D local wavenumber (LW). Method TF-hgm produces theoretically correct contact locations only when the data is reduced to the pole, and even then may produce false or secondary solutions mimicking contact trends. Method TI-hgm is less sensitive to field direction but also suffers from secondary maxima. Method PSG-hgm is perhaps the most established approach of those mentioned, and in the case of vertical contacts produces reliable maxima, however knowledge of magnetization direction is required. Method AS and LW theoretically produce maxima directly over contacts and are insensitive to magnetization direction and body dip but are more sensitive to noise than the other three methods, which limits their application to higher-quality data sets.
DEPOSITIONAL FACIES, PORE TYPES AND ELASTIC PROPERTIES OF DEEP‐WATER GRAVITY FLOW CARBONATES

Quantitative petrographic analyses of deep‐water resedimented carbonates from the Gargano Peninsula (SE Italy) were integrated with petrophysical laboratory measurements (porosity, P‐and S‐wave velocities) to assess the impact of sedimentary fabrics and pore space architecture on velocity‐porosity transforms. Samples of Upper Cretaceous carbonate came from the Monte Sant'Angelo, Nevarra and Caramanica Formations and can be classified into four depositional facies associations: F1, lithoclastic breccias; F2, bioclastic packtones to grainstones; F3, interbedded grainstones‐packstones and wackestones; and F4, (hemi‐) pelagic mudstones. Five pore type classes were distinguished: I and II, dominant intercrystalline microporosity; IIIa, dominant intergranular macroporosity; IIIb, dominant mouldic macroporosity; and IIIc, mixed intergranular and mouldic macroporosity. Pore type was found to strongly control velocity‐porosity transforms, unlike depositional facies associations.
An experimental study of motion and deposition of gold particles in a mountain river

Movements of gold particles, along with gravel bed load and suspended load, were simulated in a scale model of a section of the Yangtze River in a mountainous area. The experiment showed that gold particles moved together with the gravel bed load, mainly in saltation. They consistently moved along a narrow path on the river bed. This can be called the path of gold. The path was only a fraction (1/10 to 1/2) of the width of the river bed. Almost no gold was found out side this path, although suspended load and gravel bed load were deposited there. The formation of gold placers was close to braided sections and submerged bars, with the most favorable places for gold to accumulate being in deep pools behind such bars.