Fertility in the context of Mexican migration to the United States: A case for incorporating the pre-migration fertility of immigrants

AbstractBACKGROUNDMexican-American fertility is poorly understood because data limitations prevent researchers from accurately estimating the fertility levels of members of this group and from determining how their fertility changes within and across generations.OBJECTIVEUsing binational data and an innovative methodological addressing key methodological limitations, I (1) estimate the fertility of Mexican Americans, (2) describe how selective Mexican migration to the United States is in terms of fertility, (3) document how Mexican-American fertility changes within and across generations, and (4) assess how educational selectivity and assimilation contribute to levels of fertility and fertility changes within and across generations.RESULTSMy findings show that migration from Mexico to the United States is positively selective with respect to fertility. Among the migrants studied, there was a disruption in fertility in anticipation of migration, but a resumption of pre-migration fertility patterns and partial compensation for the earlier fertility loss after migration. Fertility levels among Mexican-Americans appear to be decreasing within and across generations, as immigrants deviate from their pre-migration fertility patterns and increasingly adopt those of whites. Nonetheless, Mexican-American fertility has not yet fully converged with white fertility. Educational assimilation explains a considerable portion of this fertility decline within and across generations.COMMENTSThese findings highlight the importance of empirically observing the pre-migration fertility of immigrants. (ProQuest: . denotes formulae omitted.)1. IntroductionThe Mexican-American2 population in the United States rose sharply between 2000 and 2010, from 20.6 million to 31.8 million (Passel et al. 2011). This increase accounted for 40% of overall population growth in the country, despite the fact that Mexican Americans comprised only 10% of the US population in 2000 (Passel et al. 2011). As two-thirds of this increase came from births, it is clear that Mexican-American fertility plays an important role in US population growth (Passel et al. 2011). Because of its increasing relevance for population growth, Mexican-American fertility has garnered substantial attention (Carter 2000; Frank and Heuveline 2005; Parrado 2011). Despite strong interests on this topic, Mexican-American fertility remains poorly understood. Scholars have disagreed about the levels of Mexican immigrant fertility, providing a wide range of estimates of their total fertility rates: from below 3.0 to 4.0 (Frank and Heuveline 2005; Martin et al. 2009; Parrado 2011). Recent studies provide mixed accounts about how the fertility of Mexican Americans changes over time and across generations. Some researchers have argued that the fertility levels of Mexican Americans are converging with those of whites (Ford 1990; Parrado and Morgan 2008), while others have found that there are persistent fertility differentials between whites and Mexican Americans (Bean et al. 2000; Frank and Heuveline 2005). Finally, some researchers have suggested that negative educational selectivity gives rise to high levels of fertility among Mexican immigrants, and that the immigrants' limited degree of educational assimilation results in a limited degree of fertility assimilation (Frank and Heuveline 2005; Lichter et al. 2012; Parrado 2011). However, to date, the validity of these explanations have not been empirically examined (Frank and Heuveline 2005; Lichter et al. 2012; Parrado 2011). This lack of consensus among researchers is largely attributable to data limitations. Disagreements about the levels of Mexican immigrant fertility have arisen due to the absence of reliable data on the counts of Mexican immigrant women, which is the denominator of period estimates of fertility; while disagreements about the fertility assimilation trajectories of Mexican Americans have arisen due to the absence of information on pre-migration fertility. …