Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Assessing time series models for forecasting international migration: Lessons from the United Kingdom

Migration is one of the most unpredictable demographic processes. The aim of this article is to provide a blueprint for assessing various possible forecasting approaches in order to help safeguard producers and users of official migration statistics against misguided forecasts. To achieve that, we first evaluate the various existing approaches to modelling and forecasting of international migration flows. Subsequently, we present an empirical comparison of ex post performance of various forecasting methods, applied to international migration to and from the United Kingdom. The overarching goal is to assess the uncertainty of forecasts produced by using different forecasting methods, both in terms of their errors (biases) and calibration of uncertainty. The empirical assessment, comparing the results of various forecasting models against past migration estimates, confirms the intuition about weak predictability of migration, but also highlights varying levels of forecast errors for different migration streams. There is no single forecasting approach that would be well suited for different flows. We therefore recommend adopting a tailored approach to forecasts, and applying a risk management framework to their results, taking into account the levels of uncertainty of the individual flows, as well as the differences in their potential societal impact.
Wage Differentials by Bargaining Regime in Spain (2002-2014): An Analysis Using Matched Employer-Employee Data

This research examines wage differentials associated to different collective bargaining regimes in Spain and their evolution over time based on matched employer-employee microdata. The primary objective is to analyse the wage differentials associated to the presence of a firm-level agreement and how they have evolved, taking into account the changes in the economic cycle and the recent labour reform of 2012. The second objective of the study is to examine the impact on wages of an absence of a collective agreement. This regime has become more prevalent due to the regulatory changes associated to the labour reform. From the evidence obtained it may be concluded that, although the higher wages observed in company-level agreements are systematically explained by the better characteristics of firms with labour agreements, there is a positive wage premium that favours workers mostly in the middle and upper-middle end of the wage distribution. This premium has remained relatively stable over time and does not seem to have been affected by the reform, although a degree of cyclical evolution cannot be ruled out. With respect to the impact on wages of the absence of a collective agreement, the results suggest that this level of bargaining, which is still fairly scarce, despite displaying an increasing trend, is associated, on average, to comparatively low wages, and, consequently, to higher wage flexibility. The principal explanatory cause for this wage differential is the existence of a negative wage premium for workers of firms covered by sectoral agreements, particularly those at the lower end of the distribution.
Predictors and prevalence of erectile dysfunction in a racially diverse population.

BACKGROUND To our knowledge, the burden of disease attributed to erectile dysfunction (ED) has not been adequately quantified across a complete spectrum of age and race using a global disease definition, as recommended by the National Institutes of Health consensus statement. To obtain a better understanding of the national estimates of prevalence and risk factors for ED, we analyzed data from the 2001-2002 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. METHODS The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey collects data by household interview. The sample design is a stratified, multistage, probability sample of clusters of persons representing the civilian noninstitutionalized population. Data include medical histories in which specific queries are made regarding urological symptoms (including ED). These items were selected for analysis in 3566 men, 20 years and older. RESULTS In men 20 years and older, ED affected almost 1 in 5 respondents. Hispanic men were more likely to report ED (odds ratio [OR], 1.89), after controlling for other factors. The prevalence of ED increased dramatically with advanced age; 77.5% of men 75 years and older were affected. In addition, there were several modifiable risk factors that were independently associated with ED, including diabetes mellitus (OR, 2.69), obesity (OR, 1.60), current smoking (OR, 1.74), and hypertension (OR, 1.56). CONCLUSIONS The burden of ED on the US population is significant. Hispanic men had an elevated risk for ED, a finding that requires confirmation in prospective studies. Obesity, hypertension, smoking, and diabetes mellitus are significantly associated with ED risk. Mitigation of these risk factors may ameliorate the burden of ED.
Is small for gestational age status associated with an increased risk of atherogenesis?

ABSTRACT The "catch-up growth" phenomenon in children born small for gestational age (SGA) has been linked to early onset obesity with the subsequent emergence of metabolic syndrome (MetS). The intima media thickness of the common carotid artery (CIMT) is a well-known marker of subclinical atherosclerosis. AIM to determine the association between being born SGA and CIMT, a measure of atherogenesis and to investigate metabolic risk factors which impact on CIMT in obese children. MATERIAL AND METHODS A prospective study was carried out over a 1 year period (July 2012-June 2013). We analyzed 122 obese patients, 96 patients appropriate for gestational age (AGA) and 26 patients SGA. Both groups were matched for age, sex and BMI. Blood pressure, lipids and glucose were determined. Oral glucose tolerance tests (oGTT) were performed. Insulin resistance (IR) was assessed by homeostasis model assessment (HOMA). CIMT was measured in all the patients. RESULTS CIMT in obese children born SGA was significantly increased as compared with obese children born AGA similar age, sex and BMI (p=0.0035). We demonstrated a strong correlation between CIMT and all other metabolic factors (r=0.98). In both groups, mean CIMT of was significantly related to diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides and HOMA. CIMT was not significantly related to systolic blood pressure and baseline glucose. CONCLUSION High triglycerides levels and low HDL-cholesterol levels, IR and diastolic blood pressure, which are all components of MetS are strong predictors of increased CIMT in obese children. Being born SGA increases the atherogenic risk.
The role of Romanian social enterprises in the alleviation of poverty and social exclusion

Abstract Poverty and social exclusion are nowadays widely debated phenomena as they present highly threatening consequences for the wellbeing of humanity, making it unable to reach adequate living standards and to fully exercise social rights. To alleviate imbalances, adequate programs need to be put into place and for this process to be efficient, coherence and commitment must constitute elementary values to advance social welfare. Social enterprises can also contribute with their value creating potential to the fostering of a sustainable society that places a high emphasis on the defense of vulnerable groups and offers them an equitable treatment. The present paper firstly aims to illustrate conceptual elements referring to poverty, social exclusion and the social protection of marginalized groups. Secondly, the study is complemented by a research on Romanian social enterprises’ perspective (associations, foundations and sheltered units) concerning social threats and the defense of less favored individuals, undertaken through a questionnaire-based survey. The research unveils the social enterprises’ belief that the Romanian social field needs substantial attention from policymakers and that social protection services can aid them in gaining social privileges more adequately.
Commensal gut microbiota and the initiation of antiviral immunity in chickens infected with low pathogenic influenza virus subtype H9N2

This work was supported by the Ontario Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs (OMAFRA), the Canadian Poultry Research Council (CPRC) and Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. This research is supported in part by the University of Guelph’s Food from Thought initiative, thanks to funding from the Canada First Research Excellence Fund. Alexander Yitbarek is the recipient of the Ontario Veterinary College Scholarship, Queen Elizabeth II Graduate Scholarship in Science & Technology and the Canadian Poultry Research Council Scholarship.
Clinical Decision Rules for Diagnostic Imaging in the Emergency Department: A Research Agenda.

BACKGROUND Major gaps persist in the development, validation, and implementation of clinical decision rules (CDRs) for diagnostic imaging. OBJECTIVES The objective of this working group and article was to generate a consensus-based research agenda for the development and implementation of CDRs for diagnostic imaging in the emergency department (ED). METHODS The authors followed consensus methodology, as outlined by the journal Academic Emergency Medicine (AEM), combining literature review, electronic surveys, telephonic communications, and a modified nominal group technique. Final discussions occurred in person at the 2015 AEM consensus conference. RESULTS A research agenda was developed, prioritizing the following questions: 1) what are the optimal methods to justify the derivation and validation of diagnostic imaging CDRs, 2) what level of evidence is required before disseminating CDRs for widespread implementation, 3) what defines a successful CDR, 4) how should investigators best compare CDRs to clinical judgment, and 5) what disease states are amenable (and highest priority) to development of CDRs for diagnostic imaging in the ED? CONCLUSIONS The concepts discussed herein demonstrate the need for further research on CDR development and implementation regarding diagnostic imaging in the ED. Addressing this research agenda should have direct applicability to patients, clinicians, and health care systems.
Oral human papillomavirus infection in HIV-negative and HIV-infected MSM

Objective:Oral infection with human papillomavirus (HPV) is associated with a subset of head and neck cancers. We compared prevalence of, and risk factors for, oral HPV infection among HIV-negative and HIV-infected MSM. Design:Analysis of baseline data from a prospective cohort study. Methods:MSM aged 18 years or older were recruited from three study sites in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Participants completed a self-administered risk-factor questionnaire. Oral-rinse and gargle specimens were analyzed for HPV DNA and genotyped using a highly sensitive PCR and reverse line blot assay [short PCR fragment (SPF)10-PCR-DNA Enzyme Immuno Assay (DEIA)/LiPA25 system]. Results:In 2010–2011, 794 MSM were included, of whom 767 participants had sufficient data for analysis. Median age was 40.1 years [interquartile range (IQR) 34.8–47.5] and 314 men were HIV-infected (40.9%). Any of 25 typable HPV types was present in 24.4% of all oral samples. Oncogenic HPV types were detected in 24.8 and 8.8% of oral samples from HIV-infected and HIV-negative MSM, respectively (P < 0.001). Of these high-risk types, HPV-16 was the most common (overall 3.4%). Oral infection with high-risk HPV was associated with HIV infection in multivariable analysis (P < 0.001). Increasing age was significantly associated with oral HPV infection in HIV-negative, but not in HIV-infected MSM. Conclusion:Oral HPV infection is very common among MSM. HIV infection was independently associated with high-risk oral HPV infection, suggesting an important role of HIV in oral HPV infection.
Developmental regulation of human truncated nerve growth factor receptor

Monoclonal antibodies (designated XIF1 and IIIG5) recognizing distinct epitopes of the human truncated nerve growth factor receptor (NGF‐Rt) were used in a two‐site radiometric immunosorbent assay to monitor levels of NGF‐Rt in human urine as a function of age. Urine samples were collected from 70 neurologically normal subjects ranging in age from 1 month to 68 years. By using this sensitive two‐site radiometric immunosorbent assay, NGF‐Rt levels were found to be highest in urine from 1‐month old subjects. By 2.5 months, NGF‐Rt values were half of those seen at 1 month and decreased more gradually between 0.5 and 15 years. Between 15 and 68 years, urine NGF‐Rt levels were relatively constant at 5% of 1‐month values. No evidence for diurnal variation of adult NGF‐Rt was apparent. Pregnant women in their third trimester showed significantly elevated urine NGF‐Rt values compared with age matched normals. Affinity labeling of NGF‐Rt with 125I‐NGF followed by immunoprecipitation with ME20.4‐IgG and gel autoradiography indicated that neonatal urine contained high amounts of truncated receptor (Mr = 50 kd); decreasingly lower amounts of NGF‐Rt were observed on gel autoradiograms with development, indicating that the two‐site radiometric immunosorbent assay correlated well with the affinity labeling technique for measuring NGF‐Rt. NGF‐Rt in urines from 1‐month‐old and 36‐year‐old subjects showed no differences in affinities for NGF or for the monoclonal antibody IIIG5. These data show that NGF‐Rt is developmentally regulated in human urine, and are discussed in relation to the development and maturation of the peripheral nervous system. The results obtained in this study establish the basis for studying NGF‐Rt regulation during the course of abnormal development, regeneration, and neurodegeneration.
Evaluation of scalp hair nickel and chromium level changes in patients with fixed orthodontic appliance: a one-year follow-up study

Abstract Background and objectives: The release of metal ions from orthodontic appliances is part of the dissolution and biomechanical processes of alloys. Nickel (Ni) and chromium (Cr) are the elements commonly used in the manufacture of various components of fixed orthodontic appliances, including bands, brackets and wires. This study was aimed to measure the Ni and Cr ions levels in the scalp hair of patients treated with fixed orthodontic appliances in comparison of the control group. Materials and methods: The patient group consisted of 24 patients treated with fixed orthodontic appliances for one year, while the control group included 28 healthy individuals without orthodontic appliances. Analysis of the Cr and Ni was performed using atomic absorption spectrophotometer by graphite furnace method. The data were analyzed via student and paired samples t-test and ANOVA repeated measurement test. Results: After one year, the levels of Ni and Cr in two groups showed significant differences (0.086 ± 0.007 and 0.258 ± 0.009 µg/g for control group and 0.149 ± 0.010 and 0.339 ± 0.013 µg/g for patient group, respectively for Ni and Cr, p < .001). ANCOVA test by removing the effects of age, gender and the baseline levels of Ni and Cr showed that changes in these ions in the scalp hair of both groups after one year were statistically significant. Conclusion: Due to the slightly elevated levels of Ni and Cr ions in the scalp hair of patients treated with fixed orthodontic appliances and considering the cytotoxic and allergic effects of these ions, changing the ingredients in fixed orthodontic appliances is suggested for the future.
Serum osteoprotegerin and carotid intima–media thickness in acute/chronic coronary artery diseases

Aims Osteoprotegerin (OPG) plays a key role in atherosclerosis progression and plaque destabilization. We investigated the relationship between intima–media thickness of the common carotid artery (CCA-IMT; an early marker of atherosclerosis) and OPG levels in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) and chronic coronary artery disease (CAD). Methods We studied 133 consecutive patients, mean age 65 ± 9 years, referred to our department for coronary angiography. They were evaluated for cardiovascular risk factors, OPG levels and CCA-IMT and accordingly divided in two subgroups: ACS and chronic CAD. Results Except for age, the two groups were similar according to conventional cardiovascular risk factors. The chronic CAD group showed a CCA-IMT lower than the ACS group (0.86 ± 0.15 vs. 0.94 ± 0.22 mm, P = 0.027); there were no differences regarding the extension of coronary atherosclerosis on angiograms. The OPG levels were higher in chronic CAD patients than in ACS patients (5.36 ± 3.06 vs. 3.85 ± 2.96 pmol/l, P = 0.004). Moreover, the CCA-IMT was significantly correlated with the age of the patients (r = 0.5; P < 0.001). OPG values were not related either to age or to the CCA-IMT. At analysis of covariance, when adjusting the groups for age, the comparison of the two groups lost statistical significance for CCA-IMT (P = 0.41), whereas the OPG values remained significant after the correction (P = 0.001). Conclusion OPG levels are higher in chronic CAD patients. CCA-IMT confirmed its importance in predicting CAD, showing significantly higher values in the patients in the ACS group as compared with those in the chronic CAD group.
A local feature-based human motion recognition framework

In this paper, we propose a local feature-based human motion analysis framework. Instead of using traditional analysis methods to characterize the global structure of human motion, we extract features directly from local regions that contain motion. To implement the above concept, we adopt the rules of visual attention theory, which assert that a human motion can be described simply by a set of local features comprised of spatial relationships rather than human postures. We select two kinds of features to represent the local variation of a human motion. First, we extract the long-term movement trend of the motion. The second feature is actually a set of rough features derived by sampling multi-scale moving edges. The two types of features are considered together during the recognition process. Our experiments demonstrate that the proposed approach can achieve very good recognition results.
Peripheral Blood CD14high CD16+ Monocytes are Main Producers of IL‐10

Based on CD14 and CD16 expression, human peripheral blood monocytes (MO) can be divided into a major CD14high CD16− population and two minor CD14high CD16+ and CD14dim CD16+ subpopulations. CD14dim CD16+ MO are well characterized and regarded as pro‐inflammatory because upon stimulation produce TNF‐α but little, if any, IL‐10. By contrast, little is known about CD14high CD16+ MO. We investigated the surface expression of selected determinants by CD16+ MO subpopulations, cytokine production, phagocytosis and antigen presentation. We found that both CD16+ subpopulations had a higher expression of HLA‐DR, CD86, CD54 and a lower expression of CD64 than CD14high CD16− population. In addition, CD14high CD16+ MO showed a higher expression of CD11b and TLR4 than CD14dim CD16+ and CD14high CD16− subpopulations. CD14high CD16+ MO exhibited an increased phagocytic activity and a decreased antigen presentation in comparison with CD14dim CD16+. As expected, lipopolysaccharide (LPS)‐stimulated CD14dim CD16+ MO produced TNF‐α but little IL‐10. By contrast, LPS‐stimulated CD14high CD16+ subpopulation produced significantly more IL‐10 than CD14dim CD16+ and CD14high CD16− MO. In conclusion, our data show that human peripheral blood CD16+ MO are heterogeneous in function and consist of two subpopulations: CD14dim CD16+ pro‐inflammatory and CD14high CD16+ with anti‐inflammatory potential.
Cycling into Headwinds: Analyzing Practices That Inhibit Sustainability

Using the example of cycling, the authors contribute to public policy debates surrounding sustainability. They employ practice theory to shift the debate away from consumer choice and agency to examine instead why sustainable practices are not always available to consumers. Therefore, rather than asking, “Why don’t people cycle? ” the authors ask, “Why isn’t the practice of cycling thriving? ” Practice theory focuses on material, meanings, and competences as the components of a practice, positing that a practice can thrive and grow only when these elements come together. By looking at how practices compete for the same set of elements, the authors demonstrate how some practices (e.g. driving, schooling, policing) come to dominate or inhibit others (i.e., cycling). In terms of the theme of this special issue, then, instead of excavating anticonsumption as a precursor to practices (i.e., a choice not to engage in those practices), by unpacking practices, the authors examine the mechanisms through which this choice is restricted.
Reliability of MIBG myocardial scintigraphy in the diagnosis of Parkinson’s disease

Aim: To evaluate the reliability of [123I]meta-iodobenzylguanidine (MIBG) myocardial scintigraphy for diagnosing Parkinson’s disease (PD). Patients/Methods: A series of 391 outpatients showing one or more parkinsonian-like symptoms was longitudinally followed up for accurate clinical diagnosis. MIBG scintigraphy was performed in the patients and 10 normal controls of similar age. The heart to mediastinum uptake ratio was calculated in each person, and the values were considered abnormal if they were greater than two standard deviations below the control mean. Results: MIBG uptake was decreased in most patients with PD (87.7%), and was seen in all advanced cases with Hohen-Yahr stage III or more; the sensitivity and specificity of scintigraphy for detecting PD were 87.7% and 37.4%, respectively. Surprisingly, over half of the patients without PD (66.5%) also exhibited low uptake, resulting in considerable overlap in the ratios between PD and the other disorders. Conclusion: MIBG scintigraphy is a sensitive, but not specific, test for PD. Low MIBG uptake does not necessarily indicate PD, but is essential for diagnosing advanced PD.
The structure and reliability of the Health of the Nation Outcome Scales

Objective: The Health of the Nation Outcome Scales (HoNOS) has been suggested as an outcome measure for the evaluation of mental health services in several countries; however, the scoring, reliability and structure of HoNOS are all ambiguous. Methods: A total of 80,161 completed HoNOS forms were checked for internal reliability and structural integrity. Parallel analysis was used to investigate the likelihood that HoNOS consists of 12 independent scales. The reliability of the scale was investigated using ordinal reliability analysis. Confirmatory factor analysis was used to investigate the factor structure. Results: Parallel analysis suggested that HoNOS had three underlying factors and could not be considered as 12 independent scales. The 12-item scale had good reliability. Confirmatory factor analysis found that a one factor, four-item scale produced the most acceptable fit. Conclusions: HoNOS should not be considered as 12 independent scales. Although the four-item scale is acceptable psychometrically, it has practical problems, as it focuses only on the social aspects of outcome measurement. It is possible that there are other factor structures that would encompass more items, but any study of these should test for invariance between groups of service users.