Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
A systematic modelling strategy for futures markets volatility

Over the past decade, econometric modelling of the volatility clustering phenomenon has been a very active area of research and several new approaches have been proposed and tested. Given the ever greater role of futures markets in risk management in modern economic theory, it seems advisable to formulate a systematic methodology for modelling these financial tools. In this paper, using soybean futures data, a systematic modelling strategy is proposed that takes into account the various aspects that should be incorporated in a bona fide volatility model. Several volatility models are analysed and compared in terms of their in-sample fit adequacy and predictive ability. Special attention is devoted to the asymmetric effect that the arrival of news may have on volatility. The proposed approach is sufficiently broad to be applied to other futures markets.
Saving and Uncertainty: The Precautionary Demand for Saving

I. Introduction, 465. — II. A two period model of consumption, 466. — III. The effect of uncertainty on saving, 467. — IV. Decreasing risk aversion and precautionary saving, 468. — V. Speculations on the consumption function, 470. — VI. Conclusion, 472.
Investigating cannabis use normalization by distinguishing between experimental and regular use: a multilevel study in 31 countries.

OBJECTIVE This research examined whether national population-level cannabis frequency rates moderate the strength of the relationship between individual-level psychosocial and behavioral risk factors (poor parental communication, bullying, fighting, etc.) and different levels of adolescent cannabis use (abstinence, experimental use, and regular use). METHOD Data from the 2009/2010 Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children survey (N = 62,009, age = 15 years) from 31 countries were analyzed using multinomial hierarchical linear modeling. RESULTS Analyses showed that adolescents who reported experimental cannabis use and who lived in relatively high cannabis frequency countries were less likely than their counterparts in low cannabis frequency countries to present some of the cannabis-related psychosocial and behavioral risk factors. Conversely, regular cannabis use tended to occur among high-risk adolescents to an equal degree in high and low cannabis frequency countries. CONCLUSIONS The findings suggest that the normality of cannabis use in the youth population is important to consider when investigating the relationship between risk factors and cannabis use.
Linear Programming Analysis Of Constraints Upon Human Diets

This paper applies linear programming cost‐minimisation models to the analysis of human diets. The models incorporate considerations of nutritional and non‐nutritional factors in diet choice in order to assess the impact of adopting dietary guidelines upon the cost of nutrition‐only and palatable diets. The dual prices yielded by the models are used to estimate the total cost of meeting requirements for separate nutrients in diets for different population groups. Sensitivity analysis is then used to derive marginal cost curves for changes in the supply of nutrients covered by the dietary guidelines. The cost and composition of ‘healthy’ human diets contrast markedly with the results of past studies and indicate that economic constraints upon dietary guideline adoption are limited.
Mega Events, Fear, and Risk: Terrorism at the Olympic Games

Since 1972, there has been an association between terrorism, violence, and the Olympic Games. The events of September 11, 2001, however, clearly reescalated concerns about the Games being a terrorist target. This conceptual article discusses the theories of the risk society and the precautionary principle to understand and interpret how visitors to the most recent Summer Games, Athens 2004, framed their decision to attend. Consistent with risk theory, a strong public and financial commitment to safety at the Games was evident, with the organizers undertaking wide-ranging large-scale risk management initiatives. Athens attendees, while displaying tenets of risk aversion and engagement with a discourse of fear, also showed resilience, resistance, and indifference to potential terrorism threats. Implications for both theory and practice are noted.
Endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair in high risk patients: outcomes of management.

BACKGROUND The concomitant cardiopulmonary disease precluded the elective repair for abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) with acceptable risk. The endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair (EVAR) has become an alternative method for the treatment of AAA with high-risk comorbidities. OBJECTIVE Evaluate the results of EVAR in high-risk patients with large AAA. MATERIAL AND METHOD A prospective study of high-risk patients with large AAA and suitable morphology who underwent EVAR between August 2003 and August 2005 was conducted. The long-term outcomes were observed up to December 2006. The comorbidities, size of aneurysm, types of procedures, operative time, amount of blood loss and transfusion, length of postoperative stay in intensive care unit and hospital, postoperative complications and mortality were analyzed. RESULTS Eight patients (7 males and 1 female) with the mean age of 71.4 years (range 66-83 years) were included in the present study. The comorbidities were six of compromised cardiac status, one of severe pulmonary disease and one of morbid obesity. The average size of aneurysm was 6.2 +/- 0.64 centimetres. One patient also had large bilateral iliac artery aneurysms. Seven patients underwent EVAR with bifurcated aortic stent graft and one proceeded with aorto uni-iliac stent graft. Three patients underwent preoperative coil embolisation into internal iliac arteries when the distal landing zones at the external iliac arteries were considered. The mean estimated blood loss was 369cc and the mean blood transfusion was 0.88 units. There were no perioperative mortality, early graft occlusion, AAA rupture and open conversion in the present study. One patient had cardiac arrest due to upper airway obstruction but with successful treatment. Type II endoleak was observed in one patient and successfully treated by expectant management. One limb of bifurcated stent graft was occluded at the 5th month post EVAR and was successfully treated by artery bypass surgery at both groins. The 3-year primary graft limb patency was 87.5% (7/8). The survivals of patients at 1, 2 and 3 years were 100%, 100% and 87.5% respectively. The cause of death in one patient was not related to EVAR. CONCLUSION EVAR may be a safe and effective alternative to open AAA repair especially in high-risk patients.
Non-linear disturbance observer-based robust control for systems with mismatched disturbances/uncertainties

Robust control of non-linear systems with disturbances and uncertainties is addressed in this study using disturbance observer-based control (DOBC) technique. In this framework, the `disturbance` is a generalised concept, which may include external disturbances, unmodelled dynamics and system parameter perturbations. The existing DOBC methods were only applicable for the case where disturbances and uncertainties satisfy so-called matching condition, that is, they enter the system in the same channel as the control inputs. By appropriately designing a disturbance compensation gain vector in the composite control law, a non-linear disturbance observer-based robust control method is proposed in this study to attenuate the mismatched disturbances and the influence of parameter variations from system output channels. The proposed method is applied to a missile system with non-linear dynamics in the presence of various uncertainties and external disturbances. Simulation shows that, compared with the widely used non-linear dynamic inversion control (NDIC) and NDIC plus integral action methods, the proposed method provides much better disturbance attenuation ability and stronger robustness against various parameter variations.
Insertion of Mini-IS605 and Deletion of Adjacent Sequences in the Nitroreductase (rdxA) Gene Cause Metronidazole Resistance in Helicobacter pyloriNCTC11637

ABSTRACT We found that NCTC11637, the type strain of Helicobacter pylori, the causative agent of peptic ulcer disease and an early risk factor for gastric cancer, is metronidazole resistant. DNA transformation, PCR-based restriction analysis, and DNA sequencing collectively showed that the metronidazole resistance of this strain was due to mutation in rdxA (gene HP0954 in the full genome sequence of H. pylori 26695) and that resistance did not depend on mutation in any of the other genes that had previously been suggested: catalase (katA), ferredoxin (fdx), flavodoxin (fldA), pyruvate:flavodoxin oxidoreductase (porγδαβ), RecA (recA), or superoxide dismutase (sodB). This is in accord with another recent study that attributed metronidazole resistance to point mutations inrdxA. However, the mechanism of rdxAinactivation that we found in NCTC11637 is itself also novel: insertion of mini-IS605, one of the endogenous transposable elements of H. pylori, and deletion of adjacent DNA sequences including 462 bp of the 851-bp-long rdxA gene.
Size effect, methodological issues and ‘risk-to-default’: evidence from the UK stock market

This paper re-examines the small firm premium in the UK from December 1987 to December 2004 using a new survivorship bias-free and look-ahead bias-free database of the UK market covering stocks officially listed in the UK during this period. Prior research (Dimson, E., and P.R. Marsh. 1987. The Hoare Govett smaller companies index for the UK. Hoare Govett Limited, January; Dimson, E., and P.R. Marsh. 1999. Murphy's law and market anomalies. Journal of Portfolio Management 25, no. 2: 53–69) documented an annual small-size premium in the UK market of around 6% during the period 1955–1986 and an annual small-size discount of 6% during the years 1989–1997. Our results show a continuation of the small firm premium in the UK during 1988–2004 in excess of 7% per year. We conclude that the reversal of the small firm premium documented by Dimson and Marsh (1999. Murphy's law and market anomalies. Journal of Portfolio Management 25, no. 2: 53–69) is dependent on the data sample and methodology used. The main contribution to the 7%+geometric annual premium reported here comes mainly during the years 1993 and 1999. Furthermore, exploitation of the small firm premium depends on the strategy used and in particular on the length of the holding period before rolling over the strategy. Thus, while it can be argued that an economically significant small firm anomaly continues to exist, it appears to be sample-dependent, time-varying and unreliable, and difficult to exploit in practice.
A Road Map for Those Who Don't Know JAK-STAT

The Janus kinase–signal transducer and activator of transcription (JAK-STAT) pathway transmits information received from extracellular polypeptide signals, through transmembrane receptors, directly to target gene promoters in the nucleus, providing a mechanism for transcriptional regulation without second messengers. Evolutionarily conserved in eukaryotic organisms from slime molds to humans, JAK-STAT signaling appears to be an early adaptation to facilitate intercellular communication that has co-evolved with myriad cellular signaling events. This co-evolution has given rise to highly adapted, ligand-specific signaling pathways that control gene expression. In addition, the JAK-STAT signaling pathways are regulated by a vast array of intrinsic and environmental stimuli, which can add plasticity to the response of a cell or tissue.
Incumbency and Short-Term Influences on Voters

Using NES surveys from 1980 through 2000, this article examines the incumbency advantage with a series of survey reports of the vote, an approach that departs from the convention of estimating the incumbent advantage with aggregate election returns. Previous work conceptualizes the incumbency advantage as a small and stable vote bonus of six to eight percentage points since about 1970, based on aggregate electoral returns. This study provides a different perspective on the incumbency advantage, considering the behavior of individual voters instead of aggregate electoral outcomes. We conceive of incumbency as an anchor that diminishes the influence of short-term tides on voters. Further, the effect of incumbency on voters is neither small nor stable, and varies systematically with short-term political tides.
Impact of Country of Origin Dimensions on Purchase Intention of Eco Car

The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of the dimensions of country of origin on product quality assessments, perceptions of product value, and purchase intentions. The samples were people in Bangkok and Metropolitan Area (BMA), who intended to purchase eco cars within the next six months. Survey research with structured questionnaire was a method used for data collection. Multiple regressions were applied to test the research hypotheses, and the sample size required 500 respondents. The findings revealed that country of corporate ownership (COC), country of manufacture (COM), country of parts (COP), and Country of Brand (COB) had the effects on product quality assessment of eco cars while product quality assessment also had an effect on purchase intention. Moreover, COP and COM had the effects on perception of product value of eco cars whereas the perception of value also had an effect on purchase intention of eco cars. In addition, COP and COM had the effects on purchase intention. Product quality assessment and perception of product value had the effects on purchase intention. Nevertheless, country of assembly (COA) and country of design (COD) did not have the effects on product quality assessment, perception of product value, and purchase intention of eco cars. The contributions are expected to the practice arena to help the automobile industry or car manufacturing companies, whose country of origin dimensions are foreign countries, in choosing their country of origin to be appropriate for their marketing and to create incentives for consumers to buy.
Maternity Leave Legislation, Female Labor Supply, and the Family Wage Gap

This paper analyzes the impact of expansions in leave coverage on mothers’ labor market outcomes after childbirth. The focus is on Germany, a country that underwent several changes in maternity leave legislation since the late 70s. We identify the causal impact of an expansion in maternity leave by comparing labor market outcomes of women who gave birth shortly (i.e. one month) before and after a change in maternity leave legislation. There is strong evidence that each expansion induced women to delay their return to work. Despite this strong short-term effect, the expansions had little impact on women’s labor supply in the long-run. The expansion from 2 to 6 months reduced women’s wages, even 8 years after childbirth. This effect is mostly explained by the delay in the return to work. The delay in the return to work caused by the expansions in leave from 6 to 10 months and 18 to 36 months also lowered wages. However, this negative effect is offset by a positive selection effect, resulting in a zero or even positive overall effect.
Perceived Consumer Navigational Control in Travel Websites

The purpose of this study is to provide a better understanding of the perceived online control effects on consumers’ behavior in the travel industry. The article uses a laboratory experiment to investigate how perceived consumer navigational control affects consumer behavior. An online travel store of a fictitious company was developed as the experimental stimulus. The findings imply that perceived navigational control affects consumers’ levels of pleasure and trust during the online navigation. In turn, pleasure and trust affect consumers’ attitude toward the online store and satisfaction. Surprisingly, consumers’ attitude is not directly affected by their perception of the level of navigational control over the travel website. Finally, gender moderates the relationship between the perceived navigational control and consumers’ attitude toward the travel website. Managerial implications regarding the development of travel websites and research opportunities are discussed.
Planning Inequality: Social and Economic Spaces in National Spatial Planning

While traces and techniques of power and contestation around the understanding and production of spaces are clearly recognized in the sociological and planning research literature, there has been little rigorous attention to how socio-spatial inequality is put at stake in strategic mobilization around particular spatial imaginaries. In an analysis of the German Spatial Planning Report, the paper examines how inequalities are represented in relation to space and movement in spatial strategy. The analysis shows how, in the report, the spatial dimension of the social is represented as a territorial container, in which the social merges into regional and national entities. Correspondingly, movement is only interpreted as a derived demand, ignoring its integrative aspect as precondition of participation and part of network capital. On the other hand, the spatiality of the economy is represented as something outside and fluid which is meant to be channelled into the territorial containers by means of regional development and spatial planning. These representations of the social suggest a territorialized culturally integrated society as the unquestioned frame of reference which has lost its adequacy and explanatory power against the background of a qualitatively and quantitatively increase of border transgressing relations and movements. However, this view covers the economic forces producing inequalities and reduces the political space of manoeuvre to redistributions within territorialized socialities, thus sustaining the dominant neoliberal paradigm.
Applying self-adaptive ant colony optimization for construction time-cost optimization

The time-cost optimization (TCO) problem is a multiobjective problem, which attempts to strike a balance between resource allocation costs and project schedule duration. In this paper, a self-adaptive ant colony optimization (SACO) with changing parameters based on information entropy has been employed to model time-cost optimization problem, which overcome the intrinsic weakness of premature of the basic ant colony optimization (ACO) by adjusting parameters according to mean information entropy of the ant system. A computer simulation with Matlab7.0 based on a prototype example has been carried out on the basis of SACO for TCO problem. The test results show that the SACO for TCO model can generate a more optimal cost under the same duration and achieve a better Pareto front than other models. Therefore, the SACO can be regarded as a useful approach for solving construction project TCO problems.
Village politics: Heterogeneity, leadership and collective action

When comparing stratified Fulani village societies, little direct relationship between the degree of heterogeneity and the success in collective action was found, except when heterogeneity among leadership and elite groups was compared. Small size and homogeneous groups do not seem to be general preconditions for stronger ability to perform collectively. First, it was found that homogeneity among elite groups enhanced capacity for collective action. Second, it was when heterogeneity in economic interests between elite groups intensified and coincided with other dimensions of heterogeneity that collective action became difficult to achieve, such as heterogeneity in economic wealth, access to land and common‐pool resources, and agreement over authority of the leadership. Third, collective action was enhanced by political elites and leaders being a bit better endowed and a bit wealthier than the average community members, but not when their assets were mobilised against the economic interests and sense of fairness of other social groups. Fourth, the coordination power of the leadership related to the management of common‐pool resources was undermined when leadership had extensive recourse to state officials external to the village community, underscoring the importance of autonomy.
Evolution of the Economics of Agricultural Policy

Agricultural economists helped develop farm programs to respond to the dire economic situation of the 1920s and 1930s. Some early authors appreciated that such policies created problems in markets for commodities and inputs. Over time, our understanding of agricultural issues and policies has deepened. Through the application of improved models and tools of analysis to more extensive data, we have developed better answers to old questions, and have responded to changing policy instruments, market contexts, and policy concerns. This article traces the evolution of our deepening economic understanding of the causes and consequences of agricultural policy. Copyright 2010, Oxford University Press.
Post-traumatic stress disorder among asylum seekers and refugees in Istanbul may be predicted by torture and loss due to violence

Background: Turkey is both a source and target for asylum seekers seeking refugee status in countries of European Union. There is a scarcity of research on the mental health issues of asylum seekers and refugees residing in Turkey. Aims: This study aimed: 1) to provide clinical and demographic information on asylum seekers and refugees receiving mental health services from a non-governmental refugee support program in Istanbul between 2005 and 2007, and 2) to evaluate the differences between patients diagnosed with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) with those who did not meet criteria. Methods: The study was conducted at the Mental Health Division of the Refugee Advocacy Support Group. Between July 2005 and February 2007, 1209 asylum seekers applied to the support group; 75 of these individuals (6.2%) were referred for psychiatric evaluation while 57 were diagnosed as having a psychopathology. The number of analyzed subjects was 57. Results: PTSD and major depressive disorder were the most common diagnoses (55.2% for both). The most common criteria of PTSD reported were problems in concentration and social isolation (97.3% for both). Suffering torture and losing a significant other due to violence were found to be associated with a diagnosis of PTSD. Conclusions: This study is the first of its kind to be conducted on a mixed refugee population residing in Turkey and focusing on their mental health problems. Our results should be tested within larger samples of refugees residing in different cities of Turkey.
Online Graduate Education: Developing Scholars through Asynchronous Discussion.

Considerable effort has been placed on understanding and enhancing online interaction to increase student learning, examine teaching strategies, and build learning communities. This research explored another aspect of interaction: the emergence of scholarship by graduate students through asynchronous discussion. Qualitative analysis of archived discussion postings found that graduate students rely on their experience, expertise, and each other. Three major aspects of scholarship emerged: (1) recognizing task difficulty; (2) posing difficult questions; and (3) applying information to other fields. Overall, graduate students welcomed the opportunity to express their knowledge and competencies, showing signs of learning and scholarship.