Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Multivariate Monte-Carlo simulation and economic valuation of complex financial contracts : an Excel based implementation

The economic valuation of complex financial contracts is often done using Monte-Carlo simulation. We show how to implement this approach using Excel. We discuss Monte-Carlo evaluation for standard single asset European options and then demonstrate how the basic ideas may be extended to evaluate options with exotic multi-asset multi-period features. Single asset option evaluation becomes a special case. We use a typical Executive Stock Option to motivate the discussion, which we analyse using novel theory developed in our previous works. We demonstrate the simulation of the multivariate normal distribution and the multivariate Log-Normal distribution using the Cholesky Square Root of a covariance matrix for replicating the correlation structure in the multi-asset, multi period simulation required for estimating the economic value of the contract. We do this in the standard Black Scholes framework with constant parameters. Excel implementation provides many pedagogical merits due to its relative transparency and simplicity for students. This approach also has relevance to industry due to the widespread use of Excel by practitioners and for graduates who may desire to work in the finance industry. This allows students to be able to price complex financial contracts for which an analytic approach is intractable.
Sticky Information and Disagreement about Economic Activity ∗

This paper estimates a dynamic stochastic general equilibr i m (DSGE) model that features agents’ information stickiness as well as nominal rig idities. Based on the estimated DSGE model, the article studies how (in)consistent survey d isagreement on output is with the prediction of sticky information models, as well as the i mportance of inattentive agents in accounting for macroeconomic aggregates. Two main findin gs emerge. First, firms update information quite frequently, while consumers and workers are subject to a substantial amount of information rigidity. Inattentive consumers and worker s turn out to be crucial modeling features in enhancing the model’s fit to the data. Second, we e stablish a U-shape relationship of professional forecasters’ disagreement against output growth, coherent with the prediction of sticky information models. Survey disagreement tends to rise both in booms and recessions, rather than being countercyclical. We also document eviden ce that the arrival of new information measured by forecast revision, regardless of its sig n, drives up disagreement due to inattentive forecasters. These findings have an implicatio n that survey disagreement may be an inappropriate measure for macroeconomic uncertainty.
Effect of Physical Treatment on the Properties of Composites Based on Natural Fibres

Due to the low density and high porosity of the hemp hurds, the combination of hemp and binder creates a building material with good thermal and acoustic insulation properties. Today hemp hurds can be used in high-quality products such as hemp concrete, fibre board and composites. In this paper, the attention is given to the study of the properties of lightweight composites based on modified hemp hurds as filler and MgO-cement as binder. The cohesion of the filler and of the binder is an important factor in the development of mechanical properties. The impact of ultrasonic treatment of hemp hurds and its cooking in water for 1h on the physical and mechanical properties (compressive strength, density, water absorbability, thermal conductivity) of the composites hardened in indoor condition was studied. The observation is also focused on the influence of the hemp hurds length. The durability of produced composites was studied under different conditions.
Optical confirmation and redshift estimation of the Planck cluster candidates overlapping the Pan-STARRS Survey

We report results of a study ofPlanck Sunyaev-Zel’dovich effect (SZE) selected galaxy cluster candidates using the Panoramic Survey Telescope & Rapid Response System (Pan-STARRS) imaging data. We first examine 150 Planck confirmed galaxy clusters with spectroscopic redshifts to test our algorithm for identifying optical counterparts and measuring their redshifts; our redshifts have a typical accuracy of z=(1+z) 0:022 for this sample. We then examine an additional 237 Planck galaxy cluster candidates that have no redshift in the source catalogue. Of these 237 unconfirmed cluster candidates we are able to confirm 60 galaxy clusters and measure their redshifts. A further 83 candidates are so heavily contaminated by stars due to their location near the Galactic plane that we do not attempt to identify counterparts. For the remaining 94 candidates we find no optical counterpart but use the depth of the Pan-STARRS1 data to estimate a redshift lower limitzlim(1015) beyond which we would not have expected to detect enough galaxies for confirmation. Scaling from the already published Planck sample, we expect that 12 of these unconfirmed candidates may be real clusters.
Caspase-Cleaved Cytokeratin 18 as a Potential Molecular Biomarker for Monitoring Chemotherapeutic Response in Breast Cancer Patients

Background: Breast cancer is one of the most dreadful cancer types, with the highest mortality and morbidity in women in both low and high-income countries. Cytokeratins can be applied as noninvasive, efficient and satisfactory molecular tools to monitor and predict the response to chemotherapy for breast cancer. Objective: This study was intended to explore the potential application of ccCK18 as a molecular biomarker for monitoring and predicting the efficacy of chemotherapy on breast cancer patients. Methodology: A hospital-based prospective study was conducted on 40 breast cancer patients and 38 apparently healthy control individuals in Black Lion Specialized Hospital. Blood samples were obtained from study subjects and control groups before chemotherapy, at 4 and 6 hours after chemotherapy. An ELISA assay was applied to measure plasma caspase-cleaved Cytokeratin 18 (ccCK18). The association between expression of ccCK18 and the tumor metastasis and stages and grades were determined with ELISA. Different biochemical tests were also carried out to investigate the function of liver in relation to ccCK18 level with respect to cancer chemotherapy. Wilcoxon signed rank test, Spearman’s rho test and paired t-test were applied as statistical tools to determine association and correlation among different the study parameters. A p-value of <0.05 was considered as statistically significant. Results: The baseline levels of plasma ccCK-18 were significantly higher in patients with breast cancer than those in the control group (% CI= 95%, p<0.05). The level of ccCK-18 was also significantly increased at 6 hours after chemotherapy (p<0.05). Patients with pT3 tumor size displayed the highest median level compared to other tumor sizes. The ccCK-18 level was observed to be higher among patients with distant metastasis than in nonmetastatic patients. Lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) levels were also elevated at 6 hours, following chemotherapy. Plasma liver function tests (ALT, AST, ALP and total bilirubin) were normal before and after chemotherapy, indicating that there was no major liver damage following chemotherapy. Conclusion: ccCK-18 level in blood could be used as a molecular biomarker for monitoring the disease and predicting the response of patients to breast cancer chemotherapy, particularly in low settings; however, further studies with other protocols are warranted to tailor chemotherapy treatment in a better way.
A comparison of interpleural bupivacaine and intravenous pethidine for postoperative pain relief following open cholecystectomy

Introduction: Open cholecystectomy is still a fairly frequently performed operation in the developing world. It is more invasive and therefore associated with a greater degree of postoperative pain. The purpose of this study was to compare the efficacy of a single dose of 20 ml 0.5% interpleural bupivacaine with a single 1 mg/kg bolus of intravenous pethidine for postoperative pain relief following open cholecystectomy. Material and methods: The study consisted of 100 randomly selected ASA physical status I/II male/female adults, aged 30-60 years, diagnosed with chronic cholecystitis and scheduled for surgery. Group I received a single 20 ml 0.5% bolus of bupivacaine into their interpleural space (n = 50). Group II received a single bolus of 1 mg/kg body weight of intravenous pethidine (n = 50). Visual analogue scale (VAS) scores, pulse rate (PR) and mean arterial pressure (MAP) were recorded and compared between and within study groups at pre-induction, immediately after administration of study drugs at time increments of 5, 15, 30, 60, 120, 240 and 360 min. Results: Lower VAS scores, longer duration of analgesia (4 h 37 min), significant attenuation of hemodynamic responses, and no incidence of complications were observed among patients who received interpleural bupivacaine. Conclusions: Interpleural bupivacaine is a better choice than intravenous pethidine for post-operative pain relief following open cholecystectomy. Further studies should be conducted with a special attention to long-term side effects and complications with respect to their routes of administration. The knowledge of open cholecystectomy and its postoperative profile remains vital to the knowledge base of physicians, particularly, in the developing word.
Impact of Stochastic Convection on Ensemble Forecasts of Tropical Cyclone Development

Abstract Two versions of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) global ensemble, with and without a stochastic convection scheme, are compared regarding their performance in predicting the development and evolution of tropical cyclones. Forecasts of four typhoons, one tropical storm, and two selected nondeveloping tropical systems from The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Pacific Asian Regional Campaign and Tropical Cyclone Structure 2008 (T-PARC/TCS-08) field program during August and September 2008 are evaluated. It is found that stochastic convection substantially increases the spread in ensemble storm tracks and in the vorticity and height fields in the vicinity of the storm. Stochastic convection also has an impact on the number of ensemble members predicting genesis. One day prior to the system being declared a tropical depression, on average, 31% of the ensemble members predict storm development when the ensemble includes initial perturba.
Experimental Research on Contests

Costly competitions between economic agents are modeled as contests. Researchers use laboratory experiments to study contests and test comparative static predictions of contest theory. Commonly, researchers find that participants’ efforts are significantly higher than predicted by the standard Nash equilibrium. Despite overbidding, most comparative static predictions, such as the incentive effect, the size effect, the discouragement effect and others are supported in the laboratory. In addition, experimental studies examine various contest structures, including dynamic contests (such as multi-stage races, wars of attrition, tug-of-wars), multi-dimensional contests (such as Colonel Blotto games), and contests between groups. This article provides a short review of such studies.
Interacting with an inferred world: the challenge of machine learning for humane computer interaction

Classic theories of user interaction have been framed in relation to symbolic models of planning and problem solving, responding in part to the cognitive theories associated with AI research. However, the behavior of modern machine-learning systems is determined by statistical models of the world rather than explicit symbolic descriptions. Users increasingly interact with the world and with others in ways that are mediated by such models. This paper explores the way in which this new generation of technology raises fresh challenges for the critical evaluation of interactive systems. It closes with some proposed measures for the design of inference-based systems that are more open to humane design and use.
Pathological findings in a mouse model of Japanese encephalitis infected via the footpad

We have developed and characterised a mouse model of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) infection via footpad inoculation in order to better mimic viral transmission by mosquito bites. Two-week-old and 5-week-old mice consistently developed signs of infection such as ruffled fur, weight loss, hunchback posture, tremors, mask-like facies and occasionally, hindlimb paralysis at 4 days post infection (dpi) and 11-13 dpi, respectively. Most of the animals died within 24 to 48 hours following the onset of signs of infection, with mortalities of 100% and 33.3% in 2-week-old and 5-week-old mice, respectively. Mild meningitis and variable parenchymal inflammation with formation of microglial nodules, focal necrosis and neuronophagia, and perivascular cuffing by inflammatory cells were observed in the caudate nucleus, putamen, thalamus, cerebral cortex, brainstem, and spinal cord. Viral antigens/RNA were demonstrated by immunohistochemisty and in situ hybridization, respectively, in most of these areas as well as in the hippocampus and cerebellum, albeit more focally. The pathological findings in this mouse model were generally similar to human Japanese encephalitis (JE) and other established JE models but perhaps, compared to other JEV mouse models, it demonstrates lethal encephalitic infection more consistently. We believe that our mouse model should be useful to study the pathogenesis of JE, and for testing anti-viral drugs and vaccines
ZEROS OF THE MÖBIUS FUNCTION OF PERMUTATIONS

We show that if a permutation \pi contains two intervals of length 2, where one interval is an ascent and the other a descent, then the Mobius function \mu[1,\pi] of the interval [1,\pi] is zero. As a consequence, we prove that the proportion of permutations of length $\textit{n}$ with principal Mobius function equal to zero is asymptotically bounded below by (1\ -\ \sfrac{1}{e)^2} \geq 0.3995. This is the first result determining the value of \mu\left[1,\pi\right] for an asymptotically positive proportion of permutations \pi. We further establish other general conditions on a permutation \pi that ensure \mu\left[1,\pi\right]\ =\ 0, including the occurrence in \pi of any interval of the form \alpha\oplus\ 1\ \oplus\ \beta.
Investment Timing and Vertical Relationships

We show that the standard analysis of vertical relationships transposes directly to investment dynamics. Thus, when a firm undertaking a project requires an outside supplier (e.g., an equipment manufacturer) to provide it with a discrete input to serve a growing but uncertain demand, and if the supplier has market power, investment occurs too late from an industry standpoint. The distortion in firm decisions is characterized by a Lerner-type index. Despite the underlying investment option, greater volatility can result in a lower value for both firms. We examine several contractual alternatives to induce efficient timing, a novel vertical restraint being for the upstream to sell a call option on the input. We also extend the model to allow for downstream duopoly. When downstream firms are engaged in a preemption race, the upstream firm sells the input to the first investor at a discount such that the race to preempt exactly offsets the vertical distortion, and this leader invests at the optimal time. These results are illustrated with a case study drawn from the pharmaceutical industry.
Jihadi Groups and State-Building: The Case of Boko Haram in Nigeria

The following article considers the extent to which the Nigerian jihadi group, Jama’atu Ahlis Sunna Lidda’awati wal-Jihad (JAS), also known as Boko Haram, is transforming its model of governance from domination by violence and force to governance through civil administration and public support. Drawing on over four years of research and programming in north-east Nigeria, the authors consider three aspects of such a transformation: the development of institutions, the propagation of an ideology and programmes to win over the hearts and minds of the wider population, and the role assigned to women and girls. The article finds that JAS has established little in the way of a civilian administration in the areas that have come under its control. Likewise, the movement has apparently made no concerted effort to project a vision of a future society or concrete benefits of the envisaged caliphate that would generate a level of public support. Moreover, the brutal treatment of women and girls belies any attempt by the movement to promote a positive vision of the role of women, even as wives and mothers. In this, JAS is seen to differ from a number of other jihadi movements that have relatively sophisticated approaches to generating popular support and recruiting members. The article goes on to suggest a number of reasons for JAS’s failure to move towards a polity that is more consensual and less dependent on violence, as well as its implications for those who would seek to restrain the expansion and ideological reach of jihadist groups. It concludes by offering suggestions of how the government can seize the opportunity presented by this lack of a state-building strategy, in order to show the people of north-east Nigeria that it can offer a better alternative.
ON- AND OFF- THE NORTH CHINA CRATON: WHERE IS THE ARCHAEAN KEEL?

Geophysical data indicates that the lithosphere beneath the North China Craton (NCC) is ca 80 km thick and relatively “hot” (Teng et al., 1983). Although this is contrary to what one might deduce from the presence of Archaean crustal rocks (ca 2.5-3.0 Ga) and Ordovician diamondiferous kimberlites (Ma and Wu, 1981), it is consistent with the information from peridotite xenoliths entrained during the Cenozoic. Peridotites from eastern China, collected over distances of several thousand kilometres, are predominantly shallow mantle rocks that formed immediately below the Moho. Petrological, geochemical and textural data point to the presence of thin, hot lithosphere with a marked similarity to lithosphere found beneath tectonically active continents (i.e., off-craton: Basin and Range USA) or the deep lithosphere found beneath modern ocean basins. Of particular note is : (a) the predominance of spinel facies peridotites (< 85 km) (Robinson and Wood, 1998) like those found in Cenozoic volcanic fields around the world, (b) a lherzolitic mode similar to that of “deep” oceanic lithosphere represented by basalt-borne xenoliths from Hawaii, Tahiti and elsewhere (i.e., spinel and garnet lherzolites) but very different to “shallow” oceanic lithosphere as represented by abyssal peridotites (i.e., plagioclase lherzolites, harzburgites & dunites) (Dick et al., 1984), (c) an orthopyroxene/olivine ratio akin to oceanic & offcraton peridotites (Boyd, 1989) and very different from that found beneath the cratons of Canada (e.g., Griffin et al., 1999), Greenland (e.g., Kelemen et al., 1998), Siberia (e.g., Pearson et al., 1995) and South Africa (e.g., Cox et al., 1973), (d) a predominance of “depleted” Sr and Nd isotopic ratios. It appears that most of the on- and off-craton peridotites from eastern China have evolved in response to processes similar to that which led to lithospheric growth in modern ocean basins and areas of post-Archaean crustal growth. These processes are thought to relate to the extraction of basaltic magmas (ca. 1300°C). However on- and off-craton isotopic provinciality does exist within eastern China but only a small number of samples have the enriched isotopic characteristics of on-craton peridotites from areas like the Kaapvaal craton of South Africa. On the basis of geochemical data we conclude that the pre-existent Archaean lithosphere keel has been effectively delaminated and that thermo-tectonic processes led to Phanerozoic accretion of asthenosphere now apparent as “oceanic” lithospheric mantle beneath eastern China (Menzies et al., 1993). The on- and off-craton differences require a more complex petrogenetic model or a fundamental change to our assumptions about the evolution of sub-cratonic mantle based on the Kaapvaal model.
Can mergers in Europe help banks hedge against macroeconomic risk?

This study investigates the motive of geographic risk diversification in the lending activity for bank mergers in the EU on a sample of large banking groups. Geographic diversification should allow banks to reduce their risk. It is observed that the loan portfolios of European banks are home-biased. The portfolio approach is applied to explore the risk-return efficiency of the locations of banks’ activities. Mergers between pairs of banks are also studied. Evidence of the sub-optimality of the loan portfolios of European banks in terms of geographic risk diversification, and of the existence of potential gains from inter-country pair mergers is also provided.
Equivalence problem for the orthogonal webs on the 3-sphere

We solve the equivalence problem for the orthogonally separable webs on the 3-sphere under the action of the isometry group. This continues a classical project initiated by Olevsky in which he solved the corresponding canonical forms problem. The solution to the equivalence problem together with the results by Olevsky forms a complete solution to the problem of orthogonal separation of variables for the Hamilton–Jacobi equation defined on the 3-sphere via orthogonal separation of variables. It is based on invariant properties of characteristic Killing tensors in addition to properties of the corresponding algebraic curvature tensor and the associated Ricci tensor. The result is illustrated by a nontrivial application to a natural Hamiltonian defined on the 3-sphere.
Phenetic analysis of the genera Medicagoid Trigonella, Medicago and Melilotus (Fabaceae) on seed coat in Iran

Khandani S, Assadi M, Nejadsatari T, Mehregan I. 2016. Phenetic analysis of the genera medicagoid Trigonella, Medicago and Melilotus (Fabaceae) on seed coat in Iran. Biodiversitas 17: 162-171. Seed morphological characters of 11 species belonging to the Medicagoid Trigonella group from Iran were studied and compared with six species of Trigonella L. (non medicagoid), one species Medicago L. and Melilotus Mill. (Fabaceae), including general shape, size, color, surface shape and testa ornamentation patterns with Scanning Electron Microscope and Stereomicroscope. Phenetic relationships among the species were studied via important seed morphological data by PCA analysis and UPMGA method. Cluster analysis of seed morphology results showed that some of medicagoid Trigonella species clustered with non medicagoid species but majority of them joined together which is in agreement of some references. In conclusion, seed morphological characters show that most Iranian medicagoid Trigonella species are well separated from the other Trigonella species. Also, some of these characters are important in systematic discriminations of the taxa.