Adaptive Capacity and Human Cognition

The decisions of people, acting either to avoid impacts to things they value or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change, partly drive the process of adaptation to climate change and its impacts. To answer the question of why some people show adaptive behavior while others do not, it makes sense to build a theory of adaptation and adaptive capacity based on our understanding of the decision-making process. Two disciplinary perspectives offer guidance for a cognitive perspective upon adaptation and adaptive capacity: psychology and behavioral economics. From these disciplinary perspectives, we first review research on adaptation and adaptive capacity in climate change research. Our main criticism relates to the neglect of motivation and perceived adaptive capacity in this research. Second, we propose a socio-cognitive model of adaptation and adaptive capacity that compensates for the weaknesses of adaptation theorizing from a cognitive perspective. In the last section, we present data from two very different case studies that show the explanatory power of the model proposed. The first examines the precautionary behavior of German residents of flood-prone regions to protect themselves from damage. The second examines the decisions of Zimbabwean farmers to take steps to mitigate the effects of forecasted drought. 1 Social science research on human adaptation to climate change 1.1 Historical development of the research field Since the 1980s extensive research has been conducted on potential and observed impacts of climate change on natural and social systems. It was tried to estimate the probability and intensity of higher temperatures – globally and locally – sea level rise, weather extremes, the breakdown of the thermohaline circulation, the effect on biodiversity, and the loss of property and lives because of these changes (for a recent review see McCarthy et al., 2001). In the beginning of this new research stream, the social sciences’ contribution centered on the topic of mitigation. Within the climate change literature, “mitigation” refers to limiting global climate change through reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs); since GHG emissions account for more than 80% of rising GHG concentrations in the atmosphere, scientists and policy-makers focused on emissions reductions as a way of “mitigating” the effects of climate change. Starting in the late 1990s, a new topic for the social sciences has gained importance in climate change research: adaptation. The latest report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reflects the state of the science on this issue, and describes adaptation with the following definition: Adaptation refers to adjustments in ecological, social, or economic systems in response to actual or expected climatic stimuli and their effects or impacts. It refers to changes in processes, practices and structures to moderate potential changes or to benefit from opportunities associated with climate change (Smit & Pilifosova, 2001, p. 879). Two reasons account for the importance of adaptation as a topic within climate change research: To correctly assess climate change costs or risks, it is essential to include so-called “autonomous adaptation” by the affected human or natural systems (Fankhauser, 1996; Pittock & Jones, 2000; Smit et al., 1999; Tol et al., 1998; UNEP, 1998; Yohe et al., 1996; cited in Smit & Pilifosova, 2001, p. 881). On the other hand, adaptation has also come to be considered an important response option, along with mitigation (Fankhauser, 1996; Kane & Shogren, 2000; Pielke, 1998; Smith, 1996; cited in Smit & Pilifosova, 2001, p. 881). Because of the long reaction time in the climate system, even with reductions in GHG emissions, global temperatures are expected to increase. Other changes in climate – including extreme events – are likely, and sea level will continue to rise (Raper et al., 1996; White & Etkin, 1997; Wigley, 1999; cited in Smit & Pilifosova, 2001, p. 881). It appears that mitigation alone can not prevent climate from changing over the coming decades and centuries; hence, adaptation will be necessary to dampen (i.e., in common language, “mitigate”) the impacts of climate change on human and natural systems. Much of the early work on adaptation consisted of suggested response options in association with climate impact scenarios in various sectors, for example constructing seawalls in low-lying areas, or shifting cropping patterns in response to changes in rainfall. The latest report by the IPCC summarizes the use of a major explanatory variable “adaptive capacity” underlying adaptation to climate change and determining its efficacy. “Adaptive capacity is the potential or ability of a system, region, or community to adapt to the effects or impacts of climate change. “ (Smit & Pilifosova, 2001, p. 879). In the following sub-section, we describe in more detail the state of research on adaptation