Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
The Macroeconomic Consequences of Microeconomic Phenomena in the Housing and Labor Markets

This dissertation consists of three independent chapters, each of which use microeconomic data and methods to inform an analysis of macroeconomic models and questions. The rst two chapters study the short-run dynamics of housing markets, while the last chapter studies uctuations in labor markets. The rst chapter examines house price momentum, the positive autocorrelation of price changes which in housing markets lasts for two to three years. The chapter introduces, empirically grounds, and quantitatively analyzes an ampli cation mechanism that can generate substantial momentum from small frictions: sellers with an incentive not to set a unilaterally high or low list price for their house gradually adjust their price so it remains close to the market average. In doing so, the chapter provides new evidence for explanations for price stickiness for which there is little direct evidence. Furthermore, the chapter demonstrates that the resulting momentum helps explain the short-run dynamics of price, volume, and inventory in housing markets. The second chapter demonstrates how foreclosures can exacerbate a housing bust and delay the housing markets recovery and shows that such e¤ects played a signi cant role in the recent housing downturn. Foreclosures drive down prices and freeze up the retail (non-foreclosure) market by raising the ratio of sellers to buyers and making buyers more selective. This can push more homeowners underwater and cause more defaults, amplifying an initial shock. When calibrated to the recent housing cycle, the model implies that foreclosures have much larger e¤ects than previously estimated due to general equilibrium spillovers. The third chapter analyzes why macroeconomic calibrations imply much larger labor supply elasticities than microeconometric studies, paying particular attention to the extensive (participation) margin which is frequently used to explain the divergence. The chapter uses a calibrated macro model to simulate the impacts of tax policy changes on labor supply. It also presents a meta-analysis of quasi-experimental estimates of extensive margin elasticities. Both
Topology of modified switched-capacitor Z-source inverters with improved boost capability

This paper proposes a new topology named a modified switched-capacitor Z-source inverter (MSC-ZSI) based on the classical ZSI, in which an impedance network consists of symmetric two cells and each cell has two inductors and two capacitors, and one diode. In comparison to the other topologies based on switched ZSI, the proposed topology provides higher boost capability and lower voltage stress across switching devices. The improved performances of proposed topology are validated by both the simulation and experimental results.
Teach a Man to Fish? Education vs. Optimal Taxation

In models of redistribution, diff erences in human capital are often the relevant source of heterogeneity amongst individuals. Presumably, the distribution of human capital can be manipulated through education spending. This paper examines the use of education as a redistributive tool when there is a nonlinear tax system in place. The results show that taxation, whether under full or asymmetric information, substantially reduces the redistributive role of education spending in maximizing social welfare. This points to a conflict between the equalization of utility and human capital outcomes.
Financing Innovation: Evidence from R&D Grants

Governments regularly subsidize new ventures to spur innovation. This paper conducts the first large-sample, quasi-experimental evaluation of R&D subsidies. I use data on ranked applicants to the US Department of Energy's SBIR grant program. An early-stage award approximately doubles the probability that a firm receives subsequent venture capital and has large, positive impacts on patenting and revenue. These effects are stronger for more financially constrained firms. Certification, where the award contains information about firm quality, likely does not explain the grant effect. Instead, the grants are useful because they fund technology prototyping.
The neural control of bimanual movements in the elderly: Brain regions exhibiting age‐related increases in activity, frequency‐induced neural modulation, and task‐specific compensatory recruitment

Coordinated hand use is an essential component of many activities of daily living. Although previous studies have demonstrated age‐related behavioral deficits in bimanual tasks, studies that assessed the neural basis underlying such declines in function do not exist. In this fMRI study, 16 old and 16 young healthy adults performed bimanual movements varying in coordination complexity (i.e., in‐phase, antiphase) and movement frequency (i.e., 45, 60, 75, 90% of critical antiphase speed) demands. Difficulty was normalized on an individual subject basis leading to group performances (measured by phase accuracy/stability) that were matched for young and old subjects. Despite lower overall movement frequency, the old group “overactivated” brain areas compared with the young adults. These regions included the supplementary motor area, higher order feedback processing areas, and regions typically ascribed to cognitive functions (e.g., inferior parietal cortex/dorsolateral prefrontal cortex). Further, age‐related increases in activity in the supplementary motor area and left secondary somatosensory cortex showed positive correlations with coordinative ability in the more complex antiphase task, suggesting a compensation mechanism. Lastly, for both old and young subjects, similar modulation of neural activity was seen with increased movement frequency. Overall, these findings demonstrate for the first time that bimanual movements require greater neural resources for old adults in order to match the level of performance seen in younger subjects. Nevertheless, this increase in neural activity does not preclude frequency‐induced neural modulations as a function of increased task demand in the elderly. Hum Brain Mapp, 2010. © 2010 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.
Paradoxes and Innovation in Family Firms: The Role of Paradoxical Thinking

Scholars stress that family firms are inherently paradoxical, and that tensions, such as tradition versus change, family liquidity versus business growth, and founder control versus successor autonomy, can both inhibit and foster innovation. Further, theorists propose that firms led by paradoxical thinkers are more likely to manage these tensions and fuel innovative behavior. Leveraging family business and organizational paradox literatures, this multi–stage exploratory study develops measures of paradoxical tensions and paradoxical thinking in family firms, and tests these propositions. Findings indicate that paradoxical tensions may stymie innovative behavior, but that leaders’ paradoxical thinking is positively related to innovative behavior.
Predictive Distributions based on Longitudinal Earnings Data

Consider an individual trying to forecast his future earnings, in order to guide savings and other decisions. We envision an individual seeking advice from a financial planner. The individual provides data on his earnings history and on various personal characteristics such as age and education. The planner has access to longitudinal data sets that provide data on earnings histories and personal characteristics for samples of individuals. We devise optimal ways to combine the individual's information with the survey data in order to provide the individual with a conditional distribution for his future earnings. We work with data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and our main modification of previous models is to allow for heterogeneity in volatility. This has important consequences, in that the spread of the predictive distribution becomes sensitive to the variability in the earnings history.
The Polarisation of Working Hours in Ireland

There is evidence of polarisation in the literature, a polarisation between the economics and sociological literature. On the one hand the economics literature has largely ignored patterns of declining working hours for low paid workers. Though the economics literature has given attention to topics such as polarisation in the labour market, and differences in working hours across countries and over time, these two topics have not been combined. In contrast this subject has been the topic of much research in the sociological literature. The aim of this paper is to examine changes in hours worked in Ireland from 1992 up to the present. Similar to other countries, Ireland has shown a decline in the average working hours of sales and service workers, even though this occurred at a time of growth in the labour market. In contrast hours worked by clerical staff have shown far smaller declines, despite decreases in the share in employment of clerical staff. A number of hypotheses are explored for why this occurred. One hypothesis is that an increase in labour participation by women, who are more likely to work part-time, may have led to a fall in average working hours. However, this fails to explain why average working hours for male workers also declined. The paper also explores cross sectoral patterns. Though average weekly hours have declined in sectors associated with low pay (such as hotel and food sector, and retail and wholesale), low paid workers in other sectors (such as manufacturing) have not seen a decline in average weekly work hours. During the boom period some trends in Ireland have been quite different to those in other countries. From 1992 to 2002 wage growth was highest for those at the bottom of the wage distribution, a pattern quite different to other countries. Such differences with other countries may be due to the unsustainable property boom. However, there is no evidence that the boom has delayed a decrease in the working week. In fact the long term decline in working hours has stabilised during the boom. Also, the evidence does not support the hypothesis that average working hours declined due to greater participation from women, or a change in sectoral composition. Most of the change has been within sectors, genders, and occupations. This version: 7th November 2013 * Thanks you, provisos, disclaimers etc here. It should finish with: The usual disclaimer applies. All correspondents to rory.ofarrell@NERInstitute.net THE POLARISATION OF WORKING HOURS IN IRELAND Rory O’Farrell, Nevin Economic Research Institute
State Officials’ Perceptions of the Food and Agriculture Sector Criticality Assessment Tool (FASCAT), Food-system Risk, and Food Defense Funding

Abstract Determining food system criticality is necessary to mitigate risks to the nation’s food supply and prioritize and allocate funding. The Food and Agriculture Sector Criticality Assessment Tool (FASCAT) is a tool used broadly by state governments to determine the criticality of food systems throughout the US State officials (SOs) responsible for food defense (n=32) were surveyed to determine whether FASCAT is of value to food defense and to determine SOs’ security beliefs, values, and practices related to food defense. Results indicated that: (1) SOs believe FASCAT is easier to use than other forms of risk assessment; (2) FASCAT training may have introduced bias into assessment of probability, threat, vulnerability, and consequences; (3) FASCAT is valuable to SOs; (4) SOs do not routinely follow security management best practices; (5) SOs believe that intentional biological threats to the food system are the most probable threats, though without supporting evidence; and (6) SOs believe food defense risk mitigation is not adequately funded by state or federal governments. These findings indicate that even though bias was potentially introduced to FASCAT assessments, SOs believe FASCAT has been useful to them in determining food system criticality. SOs indicate that more funding is needed from state and federal governments to adequately mitigate and manage food defense risks, and that they require more comprehensive training from food defense subject matter experts in threat assessment, risk mitigation, and security management to reduce the possibility of bias from FASCAT training.
The End of the Libyan Dictatorship: The Uncertain Transition

Abstract The 42-year dictatorship in Libya finally collapsed in October 2011; it took the Western-backed armed uprising seven months of intensive fighting to defeat Qaddafi's loyalist forces. The fall of the Qaddafi regime is a welcome development in the Middle East and North Africa region. But, unlike Tunisia or Egypt, Libya does not have a standing army or a reliable potential force that can bring the necessary stability for a political transition. The tribal nature of the country and the difficulty of disarming the rebels and other groups pose serious challenges to the new authorities in Tripoli. Unless these issues are handled effectively, Libya will undergo a long period of unpredictability.
Why China's economic reforms differ: the M-form hierarchy and entry/expansion of the non-state sector

China's thirteen years of reforms (1979-1991) have achieved an average GNP annual growth rate of 8.6%. What makes China's reforms from those of Eastern Europe and the Soviet Union is the sustained entry and expansion of the non-state sector. We argue that the organization structure of the economy matters. Unlike their unitary hierarchical structure based on the functional or specialization principles (the U-form), China's hierarchical economy has been the multi-layer-multi-regional one mainly based on territorial principle (the deep M-form, or briefly, the M-form). Reforms have further decentralized the M-form economy along regional lines, which provided flexibility and opportunities for carrying out regional experiments, for the rise of non-state enterprises, and for the emergence of markets. This is why China's non-state sector share of industrial output increased from 22% in 1978 to 47% in 1991 and its private sector's share from zero to about 10%, both being achieved without mass privatization and changes in the political system.
The Switching Relationship between Natural Gas and Crude Oil Prices

In this analysis we more accurately capture the cointegrating relationship between natural gas and crude oil prices by endogenously incorporating shifts in the cointegrating vector into the estimation of the cointegrating equation. Specifically, we allow the cointegrating equation to switch between m states, according to a first-order Markov process. First, we find evidence that regime-switching exists in the relative pricing relationship, and that two is the optimal number of states. Once we control for shifts in the cointegrating vector, we find that natural gas and crude oil prices are cointegrated, and an error correction model (ECM) of their long-term equilibrium relationship is properly specified. This finding broadens the ECM model of their relationship to longer and more varied sample periods. Also, in a direct comparison of the two and one state cointegrating equations, we found evidence of the potential superiority of the two-state equation, in that it may be robust to shifts in the cointegrating vector which are missed by standard tests for a unit root. Further, our analysis finds evidence that natural gas and crude oil prices did not permanently ‘decouple’ in the early 2000s, but rather experienced a temporary shift in regimes. We find that forecasts of the relative pricing of natural gas and crude oil should be conditioned on state probability.
Limited Overwater Dispersal and Genetic Differentiation of the Snake-Eyed Skink (Cryptoblepharus nigropunctatus) in the Oceanic Ogasawara Islands, Japan

The genetic differentiation and speciation of lizards on oceanic islands may be affected by their rate of overwater dispersal. Cryptoblepharus is one of the most geographically widespread scincid lizards throughout the Indo-Pacific and Australian regions. Cryptoblepharus nigropunctatus is the northernmost species of the genus, dwelling on several small Pacific islands. To examine the colonization history of this lizard, mitochondrial 16S rDNA and D-loop sequences were compared among populations of the Ogasawara Islands consisting of four island groups (the Muko-jima, Chichijima, Haha-jima, and Kazan groups), and an isolated island, Minamitori-shima (Marcus Island). These four groups and Minamitori-shima have not been connected to each other because each is surrounded by deep sea (>100 m). DNA analyses showed that the lizard populations on individual islands had each representative haplotypes. The ancestors of C. nigropunctatus probably arrived on the islands from the southern Pacific Ocean via wave dispersal and differentiated to produce the present state. They appear to have dispersed from their origin along two independent pathways: one between Kitaiwo-to (Kazan group) and the Muko-jima and Chichi-jima groups, and the other among the Minamitori-shima, Minamiiwo-to (Kazan group), and Haha-jima groups. Limited long-distance overwater dispersal may be responsible for the genetic structure of the C. nigropunctatus populations on these oceanic islands. However, among the small islands within the same island group, D-loop haplotypes were shared and the local genetic diversity was usually high, suggesting frequent gene flow across the same group of islands.
Long-Term Determinants of the Personal Savings Rate: Literature Review and Some Empirical Results for Canada

This paper examines the structural determinants of the personal savings rate in Canada over the last 30 years, using cointegration techniques. The main finding is that the real interest rate, expected inflation, the ratio of the all-government fiscal balances to nominal GDP, and the ratio of household net worth to personal disposable income are the most important determinants of the trend in the personal savings rate, as measured in the National Income and Expenditure Accounts (NIEA). The results also suggest that the rapid decline in the NIEA personal savings rate in recent years largely reflects a change in the trend component of the savings rate, rather than a transitory departure from the trend. In the current environment of low inflation and government fiscal balances moving into surpluses, the trend NIEA savings rate could remain low. When using a measure of the personal savings rate based on the change in the net worth position of the personal sector (as estimated in the National Balance Sheet Accounts [NBSA]), the trend is determined by the real interest rate, expected inflation, and the ratio of household net worth to personal disposable income. However, the statistical evidence supporting this long-run relationship is not as conclusive as that for the NIEA savings rate.
The governance and regulation of the firm

Uniformity in modes of regulation and governance is now widely debated. The predominant thesis is that there should be a superior model promoting optimality by disclosure of information and transparency. But today, this thesis is greatly contested, since the adoption of a unique and universal set of rules and arrangements neglects the diversity of national experiences and the heterogeneity of firms, institutions and social norms. Moreover, evidence shows that this unique model of regulation and governance tends to generate major failures and turbulences. What emerges as a result is that different types of rules and norms govern entrepreneurial as well as public firms in different industries and stages of their development. The special issue following this introduction aims at discussing this timely debate on uniformity versus variety of modes of regulation and governance, and especially privileges analytical and empirical contributions covering the following dimensions of the debate: new approaches on regulation and governance in the domain of economics of the firm, business strategy, law and economics; new evidence on the evolution of regulation and governance at the firm, industry, and national levels.
Problems of Urban Decline and Growth in EEC Countries: Or Measuring Degrees of Elephantness

The purpose of this paper is to draw together several strands of literature concerned with the measurement of spatial economic and social differences and then suggest an alternative approach. We then apply that approach to classifying the problems of 103 of the largest metropolitan regions in the EEC countries. In the process, this allows us to conceptualise and attempt to quantify 'urban decline' in Europe: and simultaneously discover the extent to which urban problems in Europe are still associated with growth. Although it is hoped that the paper is infused with some theoretical and analytical insight, it is primarily empirical in scope. It draws on a small part of a much wider project. Some of the analytical support- particularly the arguments and evidence that support the use of Functional Urban Regions (FURs) as units of analysis, and all of the analytical and policy implications are reported on elsewhere. ' 1
Central Bank Communications and Equity Etfs

This article examines effects of monetary policy surprises on returns, volatilities, trading volumes, and bid–ask spread of two equity ETFs, the S&P 500 SPY fund and the S&P 400 MDY fund. The policy surprises are measured by both surprises in the federal funds rate target changes and surprises in the future direction of the Federal Reserve monetary policy. The results show that there is an overreaction of the SPY to the federal funds rate target surprise in the first 5 minutes' trading and that both the SPY and the MDY returns, volatilities, trading volumes, and bid–ask spread react more strongly to surprise cuts than to surprise increases in the federal funds rate target. Quantitatively, after 45 minutes, an unanticipated 25‐basis‐point cut in the federal funds rate target is associated with an increase of 1.2 and 1.6% in the SPY and the MDY, respectively, while an unanticipated 25‐basis‐point decline (or rise) in the four‐quarter‐ahead eurodollar futures rate is associated with an increase (or decrease) of 0.71 and 0.40% in the SPY and the MDY, respectively. Further evidence also suggests that the market reacts more strongly to surprises in the future direction of monetary policy during the monetary tightening period and that the impact of monetary policy surprises depends on their sizes. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 26:959–995, 2006
Supply Chain Contract Design: Impact of Bounded Rationality and Individual Heterogeneity

In this article, we model various forms of non‐optimizing behavior in a newsvendor setting, including biases such as recency, reinforcement, demand chasing, and anchoring, as well as unsystematic decision errors. We assume that a newsvendor may evaluate decisions by examining both past outcomes and future expected payoffs. Our model is motivated by laboratory observations under several types of supply chain contracts. Ordering decisions are found to follow multi‐modal distributions that are dependent on contract structures and incentives. We differ from previous research by using statistics to determine which behavioral factors are applicable to each decision maker. A great deal of heterogeneity was discovered, indicating the importance of calibrating a contract to the individual. Our analysis also shows that the profit performance and the effectiveness of co‐ordinating contracts can be affected by non‐optimizing behaviors significantly. We conclude that, in addition to the aggregate order quantities, the decision distributions should be considered in designing contracts.