Is the Over-education a Temporary Phenomenon? Case of Tunisian Higher Education Graduates

AbstractThis work analyzes the phenomenon of normative overeducation in the case of Tunisian higher education graduate cohort 2004. Two interrogations are presented in the survey. The first is realized 18 months after graduation and the second 3 years after. The results of the first investigation are used in the probit model to study the extent of the phenomenon of overeducation at the first recruiting. The second interrogation is used to study the overeducation time horizon. The characteristics of employment present more significant effects on the probability of overeducation than those of the training. Among characteristics we consider the stability of employment, the branch of industry and the nature of employment (public/private). Results show that there is a diplomas hierarchy vis-a-vis the risk of overeducation. The most abundant diplomas on the labor market are not only victims of unemployment but also the most exposed to the risk of overeducation. To complete this analysis we integrate the fields of study effect. Graduates of discipline receiving the mass are more exposed to the risk of overeducation. Probit estimation results using the second interrogation show that the certification does not have any effect on the probability of overeducation. Only the stability of employment presents a significant effect on the work condition improvement of Tunisian higher education graduates initially overeducated. Results are confirmed throught multiple components analysis.Keywords: higher education, overeducation, graduates labor market, diplomas effect, multiple correspondences analyses, probit model1. IntroductionTunisian higher education is a dual system. Institutions offering a scientific formation (engineering medicine architect) practice selective admission policy. The scarce accepted elites obtain a diploma with strong employability. Other discipline ((social sciences, law, art) receiving the mass and offer abundant diplomas on the labor market (Bachelor of Technology (Bac +3) and Bachelor's Degree (Bac +4)). Under these conditions, these graduates face professional insertion problem. Nevertheless, unemployment does not represent the single problem. Beyond recruiting, a new obstacle is presented to them: overeducation. Defines as a situation where the required skills by a job are less than those obtained during the formation, the overeducation situation becomes more and more frequent.The overeducation phenomenon is far from being a recent phenomenon. The problem was the subject of two works, "The Great Training Robbery" of Berg (1970) and "The Overeducated American" of Freeman (1976). Thus research on overeducation developed in the years 1970 after the generalization of the access to higher education. Nevertheless the higher education graduates labor market equilibrium prevented the emergence of this phenomenon. Indeed, according to Krueger (1993), technical progress went hand in hand with a high qualified labor force demand. The emergence and the diffusion of new technologies during the 80-90 had considerable effects on the organization of the tasks and the requalification of employment in many sectors, thus contributing to reinforce the mutual adequacy between education level and employment. According to Groot and Van Der Brink (2000), it was only at the beginning of the 90 that these evolutions highlight the question of the overeducation.In this paper we proposes through a probit model to identify the determinants of a situation of overeducation for the graduates of the year 2004 become paid 18 months after obtaining their diplomas. For this purpose we used the data of investigation of the study "Employment dynamics among university graduates" carried out by Ministry of Vocational Training and Employment and World Bank.In this paper we propose through a model probit to identify the determinants of overeducation for the graduates' cohort 2004 obtaining a job 18 months after leaving higher education system (2005). …