When comes the sun? A study of stakeholders, driving forces and future scenarios of solar power in Sweden.

Background: In order to decouple from carbon dioxide, alternative, renewable energy sources need to replace traditional fossil fuels. The fastest growing renewable technology has for the past years been solar, more specifically in the form of photovoltaics (PV). With the support of policy schemes, solar systems are being installed on rooftops of private houses and corporations - and are increasingly being connected to the grid. The decentralized nature of solar, as well as the intermittency of it, are characteristics that place new demands on the distribution network. This entails changes for the electricity market and its actors, whose future roles and activities are yet to be determined. What influencing factors are key in the development and what pathways are plausible can help the different stakeholders adapt to the conditions of the future. Purpose: The purpose of this project was to examine driving forces for different stakeholders on the current Swedish market for solar power. It also aimed to study if and why the roles of different stakeholders will change over the years ahead. The research project further intended to explore driving forces and potential scenarios on the future market. Research question: The main research question in this thesis paper was the following: RQ What driving forces and distribution of roles could characterize the future market for solar power in Sweden? This was divided into three sub-questions: RQ1 What stakeholders can be identified that are connected to increased levels of solar power in the Swedish distribution network? RQ2 What drives the different stakeholders on the electricity market, today and in the future? RQ3 What potential scenarios could depict the future market for solar power? Method: The project had an abductive, qualitative approach but also included quantitative elements. The method design used was a combination of a case study and a survey. The case study was of a Swedish distribution system operator (DSO) and provided a basis for the building of a survey. For the survey, a two-round Delphi study was used. The Delphi technique gather the opinions of a panel of experts within a field, such as the one of solar power, through an iterative process. The thesis project as a whole was of an exploratory-descriptive nature. Delimitations: This thesis project was limited to the Swedish market of on-grid solar power. Conclusions: The project identified a range of seven key stakeholder segments on the current market, along with both intrinsic and external driving forces that influence the development towards more solar power in the grid. Intrinsic driving forces were financial benefits, environmental concerns, sustainable profile and self-sufficiency, that influence the different stakeholders in varying ways. External driving forces were captured in a set of mega trends influencing the market development. These included among others increased environmental awareness, flexibility in usage and supply as well as more decentralized production and more fluctuating electricity prices. The thesis project also produced four distinct scenarios that could depict possible pathways into the future. These were constructed using the two axes relative financial benefits of solar power and prioritization of environmental concerns. Different stakeholders were identified as enablers of, and obstacles for, the different pathways for development, along with other elements of vitality for more solar in the grid. The results implied that the rise of solar as a prominent energy source in Sweden is closely connected to changes in roles of the current stakeholders. In general, the study revealed a bright perception of the future of solar power in Sweden, but changes and adaptations are needed if the market is to disrupt and solar is to contribute a significant part of the Swedish energy mix.