Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
The Credibility of Power: Assessing Threats during the Appeasement Crises of the 1930s

became chancellor of Germany and immediately began breaking his country’s international agreements. From 1933 to 1938 Germany violated its treaty commitments by rearming, remilitarizing the Rhineland, and seizing Austria.1 Although Britain and France complained after each German violation, they refused to respond with force. In September 1938 Hitler threatened to invade Czechoslovakia unless Germany was given a piece of Czech territory called the Sudetenland. Once again, the British and French acquiesced to German demands; at the infamous Munich conference, they agreed to pressure Czechoslovakia into surrendering the Sudetenland to Germany. Finally, in 1939, as Germany was preparing to invade Poland, Britain and France took a arm stand. They warned Hitler that if he attacked Poland, they would declare war on Germany. By this time, however, Hitler no longer believed their threats. As the German leader told a group of assembled generals, “Our enemies are worms. I saw them in Munich. ”2 The lessons of Munich have been enshrined in international relations theory and in U.S. foreign policy. For deterrence theorists, the history of the 1930s shows that countries must keep their commitments or they will lose credibility.3 U.S. leaders have internalized this lesson; the most costly and dangerous moves undertaken by the United States during the Cold War were motivated by a desire to preserve credibility. Concerns about credibility led the United
The Syntax of Monsters

We present novel data showing that indexicals, first and second person pronouns in particular, occurring in a certain kind of attitude report in Uyghur are interpreted with respect to the reported context (indexical shifting). While previous authors report similar shifted interpretations of indexicals in languages such as Amharic and Zazaki, we observe a unique feature of Uyghur indexical shifting: it is sensitive to structural positions of the indexical item, and as a consequence can be partial. We account for the structural sensitivity of Uyghur indexical shifting with a context-shifting operator (or monster) that is syntactically independent from the embedding attitude predicate.
Remittances Deteriorate Governance

Abstract I use a natural experiment of oil-price-driven remittance flows to poor, non-oil-producing Muslim countries to demonstrate that remittances deteriorate the quality of governance, especially in countries with weak democratic institutions. The results indicate that a 1 standard deviation increase in remittances raises corruption by 1.5 index points (on a 6-point scale), which is equivalent to a [dollar]600 decrease in per capita GDP. Concomitantly, remittances may enable governments to reduce their delivery of public services (for example, health care, school enrollment). The results suggest that political institutions may mediate the potentially beneficial socioeconomic effects of remittance inflows.
The Status of the Semantic-Lexical Structures in Anomia

Abstract This paper aims to survey recent work relevant to understanding the possible links between word-finding defects and semantic lexical disturbances in aphasic anomia. After reviewing the clinical criteria for distinguishing modality-specific anomias from the classic aphasic anomias, investigations which have given special attention to the relationships between anomia and the sensory characteristics of the stimulus are surveyed. Since results of these studies have shown that perceptual factors do not exert a significant influence upon naming in aphasia, the hypothesis that one variety of anomia may be due to a defect of the underlying semantic representation is advanced. Two varieties of aphasic anomia are described: (a) in anomics without lexical comprehension disturbances, the locus of defect seems to be outside the semantic-lexical system, namely at the level in which the lexical item corresponding to the retrieved semantic representation is specified into the appropriate phonological form; and (.
Information asymmetry and 360-Degree Contracts in the Recorded Music Industry

L’emergence du numerique a entraine l’apparition d’un nouveau type de contrat dans l’industrie musicale – le contrat a 360 degres – qui permet a une entreprise (un label musical par exemple) de gerer l’ensemble des activites d’un artiste (musique enregistree, concerts, produits derives…). Ce type de contrat permettant d’internaliser les effets externes existant entre le marche de la musique enregistree et ses marches connexes, conclure un contrat a 360 degres devrait etre benefique tant pour les labels que pour les artistes. Pourtant, ces contrats restent assez minoritaires aujourd’hui. Dans cet article, nous avancons que les artistes ayant un contrat avec un label, ou en ayant eu un par le passe, sont reticents a signer un tel contrat car ils redoutent les consequences de leur faible pouvoir de negociation dans le partage des revenus vis-a-vis de leur label. A partir d’un echantillon representatif de musiciens professionnels en France, nous montrons empiriquement qu’une experience contractuelle avec un label de musique reduit effectivement l’incitation a signer un contrat a 360 degres. De plus, cette incitation baisse egalement avec l’intensite de l’activite scenique d’un artiste.
Entry and Competition in Differentiated Products Markets

Abstract We propose a methodology for estimating the competition effects from entry when firms sell differentiated products. We first derive precise conditions under which Bresnahan and Reiss’s entry threshold ratios (ETRs) can be used to measure competition effects. We then augment the traditional entry model with a revenue equation. This serves to adjust the ETRs by the extent of market expansion from entry, giving unbiased estimates of the competition effects. We apply our approach to seven local service sectors. We find that entry typically leads to significant market expansion, implying that traditional ETRs may substantially underestimate the competition effects from entry.
Government as a Platform

ods for harnessing the creativity of people in groups, and in the process has created powerful business models that are reshaping our economy. As the Web has undermined old media and software companies, it has demonstrated the enormous power of a new approach, often referred to as Web 2.0. In a nutshell: the secret to the success of bellwethers like Google, Amazon, eBay, Craigslist, Wikipedia, Facebook, and Twitter is that each of these sites, in its own way, has learned to harness the power of its users to add value to—no, more than that, to co-create—its offerings. Now, a new generation has come of age with the Web, and it is committed to using its lessons of creativity and collaboration to address challenges facing our country and the world. Meanwhile, with the proliferation of issues and not enough resources to address them all, many government leaders recognize the opportunities Web 2.0 technologies provide not just to help them get elected, but to help them do a better job. By analogy, many are calling this movement Government 2.0. What the heck does that mean?
Indeterminacy and the Limits of Classical Concepts: The Transformation of Heisenberg's Thought

This paper examines the transformation which occurs in Heisenberg's understanding of indeterminacy in quantum mechanics between 1926 and 1928. After his initial but unsuccessful attempt to construct new quantum concepts of space and time, in 1927 Heisenberg presented an operational definition of concepts such as position and velocity. Yet, after discussions with Bohr, he came to the realisation that classical concepts such as position and momentum are indispensable in quantum mechanics in spite of their limited applicability. This transformation in Heisenberg's thought, which centres on his theory of meaning, marks the critical turning point in his interpretation of quantum mechanics.
Ecological Politics, Violence, and the Theme of Empire

Empire has returned as a key political category in the last few years. It allows the politics of environment at the largest scale to be reconceptualized in interesting ways. Looking to imperial history and its ecological disruptions, to political ecology with its focus on the connections between rural production and metropolitan consumption, and in particular at the contemporary discussion of resource wars, this comment suggests that the focus on empire adds important dimensions to understanding global environmental politics. Not least empire requires a more explicit focus on the material contexts of contemporary politics and the violence that is connected to the extraction of resources, and petroleum in particular. Among other things this suggests a very different interpretation of the events of September 11th 2001, and the importance of including much more than regimes and cooperation into the study of global environmental politics.
Misattribution of Teacher Value Added

The federal Race to the Top competition provided significant impetus for states to adopt value-added models as a part of their teacher evaluation systems. Such models typically link students to their teachers in the spring semester when statewide tests are administered and estimate a teacher's performance based on his or her students’ learning between the test date in the previous school year and the test date in the current year. Because of data limitations in many states, however, the effect of most student learning experiences between two consecutive tests cannot be distinguished from, and hence is often attributed to, the value added of teachers in the spring classrooms. This study examines how teacher evaluations are affected by such misattribution and explores methods that can provide the best approximation in the absence of more detailed data. We find that ignoring previous school-year teachers’ contributions on student learning has a sizeable impact on estimated value-added scores for teachers in the current school year. We also present an alternative approach that can be implemented in the absence of more detailed data on student learning experiences and closely approximates teacher value-added scores that are estimated based on complete student enrollment and roster information.
Finite Sample Bias in IV Estimation of Intertemporal Labor Supply Models: Is the Intertemporal Substitution Elasticity Really Small?

The empirical literature on intertemporal labor supply behavior documents that the intertemporal elasticity of substitution of labor supply is very low, with a plausible range of zero to 0.2. Drawing upon the literature on the distribution of instrumental variables (IV) estimators, this paper demonstrates that this conventional wisdom is erroneous because it does not take into account the severe finite sample bias in these estimates that arise from weak instruments. This paper adopts several approaches to adjust for the problems induced by these weak instruments. The empirical results show that, when uncorrected for finite sample bias, the two-stage least-squares (2SLS) estimate of the elasticity is essentially zero, as in most of the previous studies, with its valid confidence interval being open-ended, [, +]. However, when corrected for finite sample bias, the estimate becomes approximately 0.5 with a much tighter confidence interval.
The Directionality of Emphasis Spread in Arabic

Many modern Arabic dialects exhibit asymmetries in the direction of emphasis (for most dialects, pharyngealization) spread. In a dialect of Yemeni Arabic, emphasis has two articulatory correlates, pharyngealization and labialization: within the phonological word, pharyngealization spreads predominantly leftward, and labialization spreads rightward, targeting short high vowels. Since asymmetries in the directionality of spread of a secondary feature are phonetically motivated and depend on whether the feature is anchored to the onset or the release phase of the primary articulation, it is argued that the unmarked directionality of spread should be encoded in the phonology as a markedness statement on that feature.
Life cycle models of women's body mass index and probability of being obese: Evidence from panel data

The objective of this paper is to develop a multiperiod, finite‐life, life cycle models of household decisions on food, leisure, and health (body mass index [BMI] or being obese) and to estimate econometric versions of these models treating SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program) participation as endogenous. A key insight from the economic models is that households allocate their wealth over the multiperiod life cycle to equalize the marginal utility of wealth in each period. The observations for this study are a balanced panel of over 1,600 women from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 1979 Cohort (NLSY79). We focus on the 20‐year period starting in 1986, when SNAP data first became available. Women of all ages are included in the study because at the beginning of adulthood women cannot accurately predict over their life cycle labor and marriage market and health shocks that can thrust them into an economic position where they would qualify for SNAP. New findings include that a woman's household SNAP participation with or without updating for last periods health status and higher local dairy product prices reduce significantly her BMI and probability of being obese.
Experiments in History and Philosophy of Science

The increasing attention on experiment in the last two decades has led to important insights into its material, cultural and social dimensions. However, the role of experiment as a tool for generating knowledge has been comparatively poorly studied. What questions are asked in experimental research? How are they treated and eventually resolved? And how do questions, epistemic situations, and experimental activity cohere and shape each other? In my paper, I treat these problems on the basis of detailed studies of research practice. After presenting several cases from the history of electricityDufay, Ampre, and FaradayI discuss a specific type of experimentthe exploratory experimentand analyze how it works in concept formation. I argue that a fuller understanding of experiment can only be achieved by intertwining historical and philosophical perspectives in such a way that the very separation of the two become questioable.
Consistent Economic Indexes for the 50 States

In the late 1980s James Stock and Mark Watson developed for the U.S. economy an alternative coincident index to the one now published by the Conference Board. They used the Kalman filter to estimate a latent dynamic factor for the national economy and designated the common factor as the coincident index. This paper uses the Stock-Watson methodology to estimate a consistent set of coincident indexes for the 50 states. These indexes provide researchers with a comprehensive monthly measure of economic activity that can be used to examine a number of state and regional issues. © 2005 President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Descartes and the First Cartesians Revisited

I am grateful that a set of fine scholars would be willing to reflect upon and write about Descartes and the First Cartesians. Their efforts are greatly appreciated and, on the whole, their observations are sound. It should be evident that I do not consider the work to be the final word on the subject of Descartes and Cartesians, that is, something exhaustive of it or complete for any of its topics. In fact, every time I reconsider an issue from my book, I find that there is more to be said even in respect to what I wrote about in great detail (see, for example, Ariew 2015 and Forthcoming a, b, c). I will reply to the commentators in the following order: 1. Domenico Collacciani; 2. Lucian Petrescu; 3. Martine Pécharman; 4. Sophie Roux; and 5. Tad Schmaltz.
Solar Geoengineering and Democracy

Some scientists suggest that it might be possible to reflect a portion of incoming sunlight back into space to reduce climate change and its impacts. Others argue that such solar radiation management (SRM) geoengineering is inherently incompatible with democracy. In this article, we reject this incompatibility argument. First, we counterargue that technologies such as SRM lack innate political characteristics and predetermined social effects, and that democracy need not be deliberative to serve as a standard for governance. We then rebut each of the argument’s core claims, countering that (1) democratic institutions are sufficiently resilient to manage SRM, (2) opting out of governance decisions is not a fundamental democratic right, (3) SRM may not require an undue degree of technocracy, and (4) its implementation may not concentrate power and promote authoritarianism. Although we reject the incompatibility argument, we do not argue that SRM is necessarily, or even likely to be, democratic in practice.
Credit Constraints and Demand for Higher Education: Evidence from Financial Deregulation

Abstract We use staggered banking deregulation across states in the United States to examine the impact of the resulting increased credit supply on college enrollment from the 1970s to the early 1990s. Our research design produces estimates that are not confounded by wealth effects due to changes in income or housing wealth. We find that lifting banking restrictions raises college enrollment by about 2.6 percentage points (4.9%). We rule out alternative interpretations by examining results for different income groups and bankrupt households. We also find similar effects for two-year or four-year college completion and supporting evidence in household educational borrowing.
Stockholding Behavior of U.S. Households: Evidence from the 19831989 Survey of Consumer Finances

Most households persistently invest in riskless assets but not stocks, and may do so because they perceive information required for market participation to be costly relative to expected benefits. In a Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model (CCAPM) increased risk aversion, income risk, and lower resources reduce the information expense sufficient to deter stockholding. Bivariate probit analysis using the 19831989 Survey of Consumer Finances shows that households with lower risk aversion, higher education, and greater wealth who were nonstockholders in 1983 had an increased conditional probability of entering by 1989, whereas 1983 stockholders with lower resources, more limited education, and greater risk aversion were more likely to be nonstockholders by 1989.
Financing Constraints and Inventory Investment: A Comparative Study with High-Frequency Panel Data

This study provides new evidence of the importance of financing constraints for explaining the dramatic cycles in inventory investment. We compare the empirical performance of different financial variables (coverage ratio, cash stocks, and cash flow) used in previous research to test for the presence of financing constraints. The comparison is undertaken in a common framework with an identical sample and high-frequency (quarterly) firm panel data. Cash flow is much more successful than cash stocks or coverage in explaining the facts about inventory investment across firm size, different inventory cycles, and different manufacturing sectors.
Does FDI Mode of Entry Matter for Economic Developments of a Host Country? The Case of Korea

There is an ongoing debate on whether benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) differ depending on the modes of FDI entry. This paper examines this debate using firm-level data on FDI in Korea. The paper adopts a new, more accurate classification scheme than the current official classification system and finds that there is little difference in firm-level performance according to FDI mode of entry. The paper thus argues against any provision of preferential incentives based on modes of entry.
The Efficiency Cost of Market Power in the Banking Industry: A Test of the Quiet Life and Related Hypotheses

Traditional concerns about concentration in product markets have centered on the social loss associated with the mispricing that occurs when market power is exercised. This paper focuses on a potentially greater loss from market powera reduction in cost efficiency brought about by the lack of market discipline in concentrated markets. We employ data from the commercial banking industry, which produces very homogeneous products in multiple markets with differing degrees of market concentration. We find the estimated efficiency cost of concentration to be several times larger than the social loss from mispricing as traditionally measured by the welfare triangle.
Human Capital and the World Technology Frontier

Abstract This paper examines the productivity growth effects of educational attainment and its interaction with the distance to the world technology frontier, which is the percentage distance to the country with the highest total factor productivity (TFP) (the United Kingdom or United States), while allowing for the endogeneity of educational attainment in some of the estimates. For this purpose, a new annual data set for educational attainment is constructed for 21 industrialized countries over the period from 1870 to 2009. The results show that changes in educational attainment and the interaction between education and the distance to the frontier, as predicted by Schumpeterian growth theory, have been influential for productivity growth over the past 140 years.
The Impact of Peer Effects on Student Outcomes in New York City Public Schools

The impact of peers on student outcomes has important policy implications for how students are organized into classes and the overall impact of education interventions. But it is difficult to accurately measure peer effects because of the nonrandom sorting of students and teachers into classrooms and the endogeneity of peers' achievement. In this study, an education production function (EPF) is specified that includes student and peer characteristics as regressors. This model is estimated using student-level data from New York City public schools for 19952000. The richness of these data allows six sources of bias that arise in the EPF model to be addressed, including the above-mentioned nonrandom classroom assignment and the endogeneity of peers' achievement. This results in credible evidence of (small) peer group effects. Instrumenting for the mean of peers' achievement significantly reduces the associated peer effect. Nonlinear peer group effects are evident in the form of a small positive impact associated with the homogeneity of peers' achievement. Generally, peer characteristics do not appear to affect individual performance. Also included in this analysis is an application of a new methodology developed by Graham (2007) that identifies peer group effects through their impact on the variance in classroom mean test scores. The approach is less susceptible to the six biases that plague the EPF approach. The evidence from this exercise indicates that peer group effects are present and corroborates the results from the EPF approach.
Market Share Behavior and Mobility: An Analysis and Time-Series Application

A measure of market share mobility is derived from an hypothesized model of underlying market share behavior. Explicit linkage of the two exposes some properties of the index and its implied behavioral assumptions and informs empirical work. Results for the U.K. newspaper industry offer some evidence of stable, overall mobility relationships, but the absence of long-run equilibrium relationships at the market share level suggests these may be misleading. Further work at the latter level seems likelier to advance understanding of both market share behavior and mobility, while care is required when supplementing concentration data with mobility statistics in antitrust cases.