Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Forecasting stock index volatility with GARCH models: international evidence

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to compare the daily conditional variance forecasts of seven GARCH-family models. This paper investigates whether the advanced GARCH models outperform the standard GARCH model in forecasting the variance of stock indices. Design/methodology/approach - – Using the daily price observations of 21 stock indices of the world, this paper forecasts one-step-ahead conditional variance with each forecasting model, for the period 1 January 2000 to 30 November 2013. The forecasts are then compared using multiple statistical tests. Findings - – It is found that the standard GARCH model outperforms the more advanced GARCH models, and provides the best one-step-ahead forecasts of the daily conditional variance. The results are robust to the choice of performance evaluation criteria, different market conditions and the data-snooping bias. Originality/value - – This study addresses the data-snooping problem by using an extensive cross-sectional data set and the superior predictive ability test (Hansen, 2005). Moreover, it covers a sample period of 13 years, which is relatively long for the volatility forecasting studies. It is one of the earliest attempts to examine the impact of market conditions on the forecasting performance of GARCH models. This study allows for a rich choice of parameterization in the GARCH models, and it uses a wide range of performance evaluation criteria, including statistical loss functions and the Mince-Zarnowitz regressions (Mincer and Zarnowitz 1969). Therefore, the results are more robust and widely applicable as compared to the earlier studies.
Slowly Declining Levels of Viral RNA and DNA in DNA/Recombinant Modified Vaccinia Virus Ankara-Vaccinated Macaques with Controlled Simian-Human Immunodeficiency Virus SHIV-89.6P Challenges

ABSTRACT In a recent vaccine trial, we showed efficient control of a virulent simian-human immunodeficiency virus SHIV-89.6P challenge by priming with a Gag-Pol-Env-expressing DNA and boosting with a Gag-Pol-Env- expressing recombinant-modified vaccinia virus Ankara. Here we show that long-term control has been associated with slowly declining levels of viral RNA and DNA. In the vaccinated animals both viral DNA and RNA underwent an initial rapid decay, which was followed by a lower decay rate. Between 12 and 70 weeks postchallenge, the low decay rates have had half-lives of about 20 weeks for viral RNA in plasma and viral DNA in peripheral blood mononuclear cells and lymph nodes. In vaccinated animals the viral DNA has been mostly unintegrated and has appeared to be largely nonfunctional as evidenced by a poor ability to recover infectious virus in cocultivation assays, even after CD8 depletion. In contrast, in control animals, which have died, viral DNA was mostly integrated and a larger proportion appeared to be functional as evidenced by the recovery of infectious virus. Thus, to date, control of the challenge infection has appeared to improve with time, with the decay rates for viral DNA being at the lower end of values reported for patients on highly active antiretroviral therapy.
Understanding Developing Country Strategic Responses to the Enhancement of Food Safety Standards

This paper explores the competing concepts of ‘standards as barriers’ and ‘standards as catalysts’ in the context of food safety standards in international trade in agricultural and food products. Through a review of existing evidence of the impact of food safety standards on developing country exports of agricultural and food products and the results of a series of country‐ and product‐specific case studies, it is suggested that food safety standards can act as both a barrier to trade and the basis of competitive positioning for developing countries in international markets. This suggests that broad conclusions about the trade effects of food safety standards on developing countries are problematic, rather the level and ways in which agricultural and food exports are impacted can be product, country, standard and even firm‐specific.
The small heat shock protein Hsp31 cooperates with Hsp104 to modulate Sup35 prion aggregation

ABSTRACT The yeast homolog of DJ-1, Hsp31, is a multifunctional protein that is involved in several cellular pathways including detoxification of the toxic metabolite methylglyoxal and as a protein deglycase. Prior studies ascribed Hsp31 as a molecular chaperone that can inhibit α-Syn aggregation in vitro and alleviate its toxicity in vivo. It was also shown that Hsp31 inhibits Sup35 aggregate formation in yeast, however, it is unknown if Hsp31 can modulate [PSI+] phenotype and Sup35 prionogenesis. Other small heat shock proteins, Hsp26 and Hsp42 are known to be a part of a synergistic proteostasis network that inhibits Sup35 prion formation and promotes its disaggregation. Here, we establish that Hsp31 inhibits Sup35 [PSI+] prion formation in collaboration with a well-known disaggregase, Hsp104. Hsp31 transiently prevents prion induction but does not suppress induction upon prolonged expression of Sup35 indicating that Hsp31 can be overcome by larger aggregates. In addition, elevated levels of Hsp31 do not cure [PSI+] strains indicating that Hsp31 cannot intervene in a pre-existing prion oligomerization cycle. However, Hsp31 can modulate prion status in cooperation with Hsp104 because it inhibits Sup35 aggregate formation and potentiates [PSI+] prion curing upon overexpression of Hsp104. The absence of Hsp31 reduces [PSI+] prion curing by Hsp104 without influencing its ability to rescue cellular thermotolerance. Hsp31 did not synergize with Hsp42 to modulate the [PSI+] phenotype suggesting that both proteins act on similar stages of the prion cycle. We also showed that Hsp31 physically interacts with Hsp104 and together they prevent Sup35 prion toxicity to greater extent than if they were expressed individually. These results elucidate a mechanism for Hsp31 on prion modulation that suggest it acts at a distinct step early in the Sup35 aggregation process that is different from Hsp104. This is the first demonstration of the modulation of [PSI+] status by the chaperone action of Hsp31. The delineation of Hsp31's role in the chaperone cycle has implications for understanding the role of the DJ-1 superfamily in controlling misfolded proteins in neurodegenerative disease and cancer.
The new customer‐centred business model for the hospitality industry

Purpose – The objective of this research is to identify and present factors that are essential to support a customer‐centred business model that is theoretically sound and can be used for practical application in the hospitality industry.Design/methodology/approach – Extensive literature that links both nascent theory and practice forms the framework of this study. This study examines recent transformational changes in the industry and the global market and provides direction for practising managers and theoreticians.Findings – This research presents a three‐phase strategic orientation plan that provides both theoretical and practical direction for the hospitality industry, so as to effectively reorient the hospitality firm into a customer‐centred business.Practical implications – The ongoing challenges in the ever‐increasing competitive global market can be met by hospitality firms by adopting strategic directions proposed by the customer‐centred business model. This research provides a three‐step plan t.
Leadership Styles in Competing Organizational Cultures

Organizational culture is often an important factor influencing the competitive strength of a firm. Leadership is also a critical component in the success of an organization. It is important to understand how these two powerful determinants of organizational performance affect each other. Research determining that specific types of organizational culture favor particular styles of leadership is important as it aids organizational leaders to identify which styles of leadership are more likely to be successful in their culture. This study uses the Competing Values Framework to define the organizational culture as clan, adhocracy, hierarchy, or market. Leadership style is defined as transformational, transactional, or laissez faire. The results of this study indicate there is a significant relationship between specific types of organizational cultures and leadership styles.
Towards inflation targeting in Egypt : the relationship between exchange rate and inflation

Since the Egyptian economy has recently moved towards inflation targeting, it became very important to know whether exchange rate movements have serious inflationary implications or not. To investigate this subject, the study aims to analyse the relevance of inflation with the exchange rate by using the Granger-causality test. Two indicators of inflation will be used, the consumer price index (CPI) and wholesale price index (WPI). In general, the results show a strong relationship between the two variables in a way that may give support to the application of ‘flexible inflation targeting regime instead of strict inflation targeting regime’.
The Effects of Geography and Infrastructure on Economic Development and International Business Involvement

The objective of this article is to bring together geographic, marketing and economic perspectives to examine how far infrastructure development can offset adverse national geographies in aiding economic development and involvement in the global economy. We use LISREL structural equation modelling to investigate relationships between geography, infrastructure, economic development and country’s involvement in trade and foreign direct investment. Results identify key geographic factors affecting global market involvement and key infrastructures (electricity production, telephone lines and container facilities at ports) facilitating economic development and international participation.
Effect of Antenatal Anaemia of the Mother on the Volume of the Placenta

In pregnancy, anaemia has a tremendous effect on the placenta. Maternal anaemia increases the volume of the placenta. Foetal hypoxaemia usually develops as a consequence of maternal anaemia, due to lower haemoglobin concentration, and stimulates placental growth. A prospective study was carried out in the Department of Obstetrics & Gynaecology, Dhaka Medical College Hospital and Maternal and Child Health Training Institute (widely known as Azimpur Maternity), Dhaka, Bangladesh, from August 2005 to June 2006 on 60 Bangladeshi women who were within 35-40 weeks of gestation. Among them, 20 had normal uncomplicated pregnancies (considered as control group or group A) and another 27 had pregnancies with mild anaemia (considered as group B1) and 13 had pregnancies with moderate anaemia (considered as group B2). Severe anaemic (considered as group B3) mother was not found during the period of collection of data for this study. The mothers were selected as who were suffering from antenatal anaemia i.e. having heamoglobin level <10 gm / dl (mild, if <10 gm / dl; moderate, if <8 gm / dl; and severe, if <6 gm / dl) and control i.e. having heamoglobin level ≥10 gm / dl. The placentae of the mothers were collected after delivery and their volume were measured by water displacement method and recorded. The present study showed that mean volume of placenta in group A, group B1 and group B2 were 444.00±38.37, 472.59±17.34 and 485.38±24.62 ml respectively. The difference between group A & B 1 , and A & B 2 were found statistically significant. The volume of the placenta was found to increase with ascending grade of antenatal naemia of mothers in comparison to that of normal pregnancy. Key Words: Antenatal Anaemia; Maternal Anaemia; Volume of Placenta DOI: 10.3329/akmmcj.v2i1. 7467 Anwer Khan Modern Medical College Journal 2011; 2(1): 22-25
Governance for Sustainable Development in Sweden: The Experience of the Local Investment Programme

Abstract This article examines the role of central government in enhancing local capacity for promoting sustainable development. Building upon a series of evaluation studies, it examines a major central government funding initiative in Sweden, called the Local Investment Programme for Ecological Sustainability (LIP). The Programme formed part of a new governance approach towards the promotion of sustainable development. It was designed to promote both ecological sustainable development and create new ‘green jobs’, while at the same time stimulating innovative ways of thinking among local actors about the relationship between economy, ecology and society. Substantial material environmental effects were achieved and ‘green jobs’ created by LIP. However, allocation was skewed towards environmental leader municipalities and LIP was never fully integrated into other sustainable development initiatives. Further, few public/private partnerships were developed. Hence, despite the magnitude of the Programme, we question whether it produced lasting capacity-building effects at the local level.
Marginal Effects for Competing Risks Models with Piecewise Constant Hazards

In the competing risks context, the effect of a covariate on the hazard function for a particular cause may be very different from its effect on the likelihood of exiting due to that cause. The latter probability is a function of all cause-specific hazards, and thereby potentially affected by indirect effects via hazards for competing causes. We consider the effects of covariates on the cumulative probability of exiting from a particular cause. These 'marginal effects' are decomposed into direct effects via the hazard of interest and indirect effects via the hazards for competing causes. For the piecewise constant hazard specification we derive simple closed-form expressions for the marginal effects that can be computed from the standard hazard function estimates. An empirical application illustrates that the marginal effects provide a useful and coherent way of summarizing the results of competing risks analysis. Copyright (c) Blackwell Publishing Ltd and the Department of Economics, University of Oxford, 2009.
NONLINEAR DYNAMICS AND THE DISTRIBUTION OF DAILY STOCK INDEX RETURNS

Three alternative models of daily stock index returns are considered: (1) a diffusion-jump process; (2) an extended generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) process; and (3) a combination of the GARCH and jump processes. Non-nested tests between the diffusion-jump process and a GARCH(1.1) process with t-distributed errors reject the diffusion-jump process, but do not always reject the GARCH process. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests of fit, however, reject the GARCH(1,1)-t process for all cases. Nonlinear dependence is not removed for the value-weighted index and the SP therefore, deterministic chaos cannot be dismissed.
Coordination of PSSs and SVC Damping Controller to Improve Probabilistic Small-Signal Stability of Power System With Wind Farm Integration

A modified fruit fly optimization algorithm (MFOA) combined with a probabilistic approach are proposed in this paper to coordinate and optimize the parameters of power system stabilizers (PSSs) and static VAR compensator (SVC) damping controller for improving the probabilistic small-signal stability of power systems with large-scale wind generation, taking into consideration the stochastic uncertainty of system operating conditions. It is generally accepted that there is a threat to the stability of power system with penetration of wind farm. In addition, the stochastic fluctuations of wind generation make PSSs tuning more difficult. In this paper, PSSs and SVC damping controller are employed for suppressing local and inter-area low frequency oscillation. In order to eliminate the adverse effect between PSSs and SVC damping controller, the MFOA based on the probabilistic eigenvalue is applied to coordinate and optimize their parameters. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is verified on two test systems.
Surgery in Hashimoto's thyroiditis: indications, complications, and associated cancers.

BACKGROUND Indications for surgery in Hashimoto's thyroiditis (HT) patients are compressive symptoms and suspicion of malignancy. A high incidence of thyroid malignancy has been reported in patients with HT. The effect of surgery on discomfort in swallowing and tightness in the neck has not been properly evaluated. AIMS The aim of our study is to compare the indications, complications, and associated cancers in patients operated for HT with those surgically treated for other benign goitres. The effect of surgery on minor symptoms like tightness in the neck and discomfort in swallowing is included. SETTING AND DESIGN This was a retrospective case-control study at a tertiary care centre. PATIENTS AND METHODS A total of 271 patients who had undergone surgery for benign thyroid diseases were included. Group A consisted of 35 patients who had HT and Group B consisted of patients operated for other benign thyroid diseases (236 patients). STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Data were analyzed using SPSS 12 software. Independent group's t-test was used to compare the means and Fisher's exact test was used for categorical data. RESULTS In Group A, the common indications for surgery were discomfort associated with swelling (45.7%), cosmesis (34.3%), and pain with swelling (11.4%) whereas in Group B, the indication was predominantly cosmetic (80%). A total of 22.9% patients of Group A and 6% of Group B were hyperthyroid. The sensitivity of FNAC for diagnosing thyroiditis was 62.8% (n = 22). Postoperative complication rates were similar in both the groups. The mean operating time was higher in Group A even though the gland was smaller. Incidental malignancy was 3.4% in Group B whereas there was none in Group A. Discomfort in swallowing and tightness in the neck were relieved at 3 months after surgery. CONCLUSIONS Large, euthyroid and apparently asymptomatic HT occasionally need surgical intervention. Discomfort in swallowing and tightness in the neck are relieved after surgery. Thyroidectomy is safe to perform and has a low incidence of permanent complications. There was no associated malignancy in our series of HT.
Governing lipitor and lipstick: Capacity, sequencing, and power in international pharmaceutical and cosmetics regulation

ABSTRACT Over the last three decades, the pharmaceutical and cosmetics industries have become increasingly global. To ensure product safety and consumer protection, regulators in leading markets have applied domestic rules extraterritorially and have joined forces to harmonize rules through transgovernmental cooperation. Yet whereas the United States has long been the dominant player in international market regulation of pharmaceuticals, the European Union has decisively shaped global rules for cosmetics. What explains differences in agenda setting power across the two closely-related industries? We compare and contrast the expectations of a realist account focused on market size and a liberal functionalist argument centered on the role of market friction with a historical institutionalist explanation stressing the relative sequential development over time of domestic regulatory capacity in leading markets. The empirical evidence shows that domestic regulatory institutions systematically shape international market regulation. Historical institutionalism provides an important complement to existing transgovernmental research, offering clear expectations for the origins of and terms of influence within such cooperation. More generally, it opens up a rich toolbox for the analysis of industry-level global market governance, which affects the daily lives of many millions of consumers.
Identifying vaccine targets for anti-leishmanial vaccine development

Leishmaniasis is a neglected tropical disease spread by an arthropod vector. It remains a significant health problem with an incidence of 0.2–0.4 million visceral leishmaniasis and 0.7–1.2 million cutaneous leishmaniasis cases each year. There are limitations associated with the current therapeutic regimens for leishmaniasis and the fact that after recovery from infection the host becomes immune to subsequent infection therefore, these factors force the feasibility of a vaccine for leishmaniasis. Publication of the genome sequence of Leishmania has paved a new way to understand the pathogenesis and host immunological status therefore providing a deep insight in the field of vaccine research. This review is an effort to study the antigenic targets in Leishmania to develop an anti-leishmanial vaccine.
The Association Between Environmental Perspective and Knowledge and Concern With Species Diversity

As communities continue to engage in debate surrounding land use and preservation, insight into stakeholder knowledge and concern with local species becomes increasingly important. This project explores the association between individual knowledge/concern with species diversity as related to environmental perspective, measured through the New Ecological Paradigm scale. We aim to understand whether concern with local species diversity is associated with species-specific knowledge and/or ecocentric outlooks more generally. Results from a mail survey in Boulder, CO reveal that individuals with ecocentric perspectives place greater priority on species preservation relative to those with anthropocentric perspectives, regardless of species knowledge. These results imply that to engage local publics in issues of biodiversity, outreach should not simply provide background specific to local species, but also demonstrate the significance of ecological integrity and biological diversity more broadly.
Political Determinants of Fiscal Centralization: empirical evidence from Brazil

This paper examines the theory of the median voter as an explanatory model of the choices of fiscal design in federal systems. According to this model, representatives governments support fiscal centralization when this decision corresponds to the preference of their median voter. This model is discussed in connection with the decisions adopted by the Brazilian Constitutional Convention of 1988 regarding fiscal design. From this discussion, the paper proposes an alternative explanation for the choices of fiscal designs, which takes into account not only the preference of the median voter for levels of taxation, but also the preferences of local government representatives for fiscal designs that involve an increase in revenue for the local government and, primarily, do not impose revenue losses or risks of revenue losses when compared to the status quo.