Man-induced Environmental Risks: Monitoring, Management and Remediation of Man-made Changes in Siberia

6 Introduction.7 1. Current State and Strategic Activities.7 1.1. Peculiarity of environmental protection problems.7 1.2. Risk assessment problem . 8 1.3. Tendencies in environmental modelling in Siberia.8 2. A Concept of Environmental Modelling.9 2.1. Statement of the problem . 11 2.2. The variational formulation of the model of processes.12 2.3. Variational principles in the problems of environment protection . 13 2.4. Universal algorithm of forward and inverse modelling . 15 2.5. Sensitivity studies . 16 2.6. The algorithms for risk assessment.17 2.7. The algorithms for risk control . 19 2.8. The advantage of variational approach . 20 3. Organization and Implementation of Environmental Models.21 3.1. Atmospheric pollution modelling general aspects . 21 3.2. Forecasting systems and urban air quality information . 22 3.3. On physical content of typical environmental models.23 3.4. On-line chemical modelling.24 3.5. The interaction between air quality modelling and health risk assessment . 25 3.6. Scales of the processes/models and scale-interaction aspects . 25 3.7. Source receptor modelling for environment and health risk assessments . 28 3.8. Complex environmental risk assessment and vulnerability evaluation . 30 3.9. Climate change and air quality modelling . 32 4. Interconnected Problems of Environment and Climate Analysis of Dynamic Systems Evolution for the Goals of Prognosis and Design.33 4.1. State-of-the-art in the construction of informative basis systems.33 4.2. Functionals and variational principles for analysis of the phase spaces . 35 4.3. Methodology of database analysis . 36 4.4. Database structuring.36 4.5. Quadratic forms and decomposition with respect to the scales of disturbances.37 4.6. Energy criteria for revealing the areas of the prescribed level of significance.38 4.7. Information content and physical meaning of orthogonal basis spaces.38 4.8. Principles of prognostic scenarios organization for environmental studies.39 4.9. Deterministic and deterministic-stochastic (probabilistic) scenarios.39 4.10. Analysis of the scenario ensembles . 41 5. Some Applied Environmental Problems.41 5.1. Studies of climate variability for revealing the areas of increased environmental risks.41 5.2. Climatic data analysis and studying the climatic centers of activity . 43 5.3. Principle factors and Siberian regions . 48 5.4. Risk assessment and observability of territories with AEROSIBNET.48 5.5. Applications of forward and inverse techniques for risk assessment in Siberian region.51 5.6. Assessment of the influence zone of Boguchan reservoir and unfrozen patch of water in the tail-water of hydropower plant on the ambient atmosphere.55 5.7. Localization of point emission source systems for advection-diffusion equation . 59 Conclusions and Recommendations from Focus Topic: Atmospheric Pollution and Risks.69 References.72 Scientific Report 08-05 www.dmi. dk/dmi/sr08-05-2.pdf page 6 of 77 Abstract The major results of the first Thematic Focus and relevant Working Group of Atmospheric Pollution and Risks inherent to Siberia environment are described in this Volume 1 of the Final Scientific Report of the EC FP6 Coordination Action of Enviro-RISKS: Man-induced Environmental Risks: Monitoring, Management and Remediation of Man-made Changes in Siberia. The main focus was done on the current state and strategic activities in risk assessment and environmental modelling in Siberia, a modern concept of environmental modelling, including online integrated approach, variational principles, forward and inverse modeling and sensitivity studies. Some practical recommendations for organization and implementation of environmental models, as well as a few examples of current studies of applied environmental problems in Siberia, based on the Enviro-RISKS CA and involved projects, are also presented in this Report. Scientific Report 08-05 www.dmi. dk/dmi/sr08-05-2.pdf page 7 of 77 Introduction To sketch a scope of environmental problems of Siberian cities, it is necessary to underline the following. Essential dependence of atmospheric quality from climatic conditions is typical for Siberian cities. A stable atmospheric stratification and temperature inversions are predominant weather patterns for more than half a year. This contributes to accumulation of pollutants of different nature in the low layers of the atmosphere namely where ecosystems function and people live. In addition to the severe climatic conditions, man-made impacts on environment in industrial cities strengthen more and more. The impacts manifest themselves in pollution of environment, change of the Earth surface, of hydrological and hydrodynamic regimes of the atmosphere, etc. In the cities, original meso-climates form that promote pollution accumulation. Urban cenosis develop there in the extreme and evolutionary non-providing conditions. Therefore they are peculiar and weakly studied ecosystem types. Here the natural and industrial (energy, transport) complexes are closely connected. There are severe contradictions between the growing chemistry components in all branches of industry and the low level of general chemistry competence even at a level of decision-making of high responsibility. For example, the unfinished technologies without of final stages of the wastes use are often realized till now. That is why a potential risk of man-made catastrophes is high. The latter may in their turn provoke ecological disasters by atmospheric emission of heat, humidity, and toxic pollutants. It should be noted that cities are not isolated systems. They may as distribute pollution over surroundings as get it from the outside. Thus the problem of mutual risk assessment for the cities should not be underestimated in the specific Siberian conditions, too. The influence of the transboundary transport between Russia, China, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia should not be ignored as well. All these problems are connected with ecological safety and life quality. Now the close connection between environment quality and man’s health, working capacity and life time is beyond any doubt. A general worsening of ecological situation in Siberian cities causes its input to the accumulation of the toxic products in the organs and tissues of men. This reflects in the functioning of the organism as a whole and leads to the metabolic imbalance. There are both the own ecological and environmental problems in Siberian and Kazakhstan cities and the typical problems for many of them. For instance, Novosibirsk, Krasnoyarsk, Irkutsk, UlanUde, Ust’-Kamenogorsk are in the influence zones of the meso-climates provided by the interplay of the city heat island and the water objects. This increases vulnerability of the atmospheric quality to the pollution. These aspects demand additional studies while planning the economical activity. One more important fact is that the cities of West Siberia are situated in the influence regions of the vast wetland (bog) territories of the gas-oil provinces where methane is naturally emitted into the atmosphere