Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Combining Density Forecasts using Focused Scoring Rules

We investigate the added value of combining density forecasts focused on a specific region of support. We develop forecast combination schemes that assign weights to individual predictive densities based on the censored likelihood scoring rule and the continuous ranked probability scoring rule (CRPS) and compare these to weighting schemes based on the log score and the equally weighted scheme. We apply this approach in the context of measuring downside risk in equity markets using recently developed volatility models, including HEAVY, realized GARCH and GAS models, applied to daily returns on the S&P 500, DJIA, FTSE and Nikkei indexes from 2000 until 2013. The results show that combined density forecasts based on optimizing the censored likelihood scoring rule significantly outperform pooling based on equal weights, optimizing the CRPS or log scoring rule. In addition, 99% Value-at-Risk estimates improve when weights are based on the censored likelihood scoring rule.
Multiaperture UBVRIzJHK Photometry of Galaxies in the Coma Cluster

We present a set of UBVRIzJHKs photometry for 745 J + H-band-selected objects in a 22.5′ × 29.2′ region centered on the core of the Coma Cluster. This includes 516 galaxies and is at least 80% complete to H = 16, with a spectroscopically complete sample of 111 cluster members (nearly all with morphological classification) for H < 14.5. For each object we present total Kron (1980) magnitudes and aperture photometry. As an example, we use these data to derive color-magnitude relations for Coma early-type galaxies, measure the intrinsic scatter of these relations and its dependence on galaxy mass, and address the issue of color gradients. We find that the color gradients are mild and that the intrinsic scatter about the color-magnitude relation is small (~0.05 mag in U - V and less than ~0.03 in B - R, V - I, or J - K). There is no evidence that the intrinsic scatter varies with galaxy luminosity, suggesting that the cluster red sequence is established at early epochs over a range of ~100 in stellar mass.
DIRECTION GÉNÉRALE DES ÉTUDES ET DES RELATIONS INTERNATIONALES DEMAND LEARNING AND FIRM DYNAMICS: EVIDENCE FROM EXPORTERS

This paper provides evidence that learning about demand is an important driver of firms’ dynamics. We present a simple model with Bayesian learning in which firms are uncertain about their idiosyncratic demand parameter in each of the markets they serve, and update their beliefs as noisy information arrives in each period. The model predicts that firms update more their beliefs following a new demand shock, the younger they are. To test this learning mechanism, we make use of a specific feature of exporter-level data which contains both the values and the quantities sold by a given firm for the same product in different destination markets. This allows us to derive a methodology that identifies separately the demand shocks faced by the firms and their beliefs about future demand. We find strong support for our main prediction: the updating process appears especially strong in the first years after entry. However, the bulk of accumulated knowledge is lost during short periods of exit. Second, we consider implications of this prediction for firm growth rates and survival. Consistent with the learning model, we find that: (i) the absolute value of the mean growth rate for firms’ beliefs decreases with age, as does the variance within cohorts; (ii) exit probability decreases with firms’ beliefs and the demand shock the firm faces. Further, demand shocks trigger more exit in younger cohorts. JEL classification: L11, L25, F12, F14.
Manufacturing Growth and Local Multipliers in China

We investigate the impact of manufacturing employment growth on the non-tradable sector for prefecture-level cities in China. Using the 2000 and 2010 Censuses of Population, we apply the shift-share approach to isolate the exogenous change of employment growth in manufacturing. We find that adding ten manufacturing jobs creates 3.4 additional jobs in the non-tradable sector. We also show that the ef- fect is heterogeneous along a number of dimensions. More specifically, new jobs in high-technology manufacturing is responsible for the entire effect with low-tech manufacturing showing no significant effect. Among the non-tradable industries, the effect is largest for wholesale, retail, and catering with no effects on utilities and construction. We find that the effect is also geographically heterogeneous, with the multiplier being greater for inland provinces.
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN STUDENTS IN ATHLETIC DISCIPLINES

The athletic racing, jumping and throwing disciplines exhibit motor skills which are most dominant in their structure and technical performance and of its participation depends the result of the specific disciplines. Usually it is a type of basic skills of speed, all forms of strength, coordination, flexibility. Motor abilities as a segment of the human space in man are often the subject of scientific research. Sometimes it comes to influence, relationships and often differences in the scope of specific motor skills. The results are all the more interesting for science if we take into account a chronological cross-section of the population speaking about it from different time point in order to examine possible differences capabilities, morphological dimensions, certain disciplines, etc. It can be broken down by school years, by gender, the results achieved, and so on. In this paper have been analyzed the motor abilities of population of students of the Faculty of Physical Education and Sport in Pale, in order to determine the differences in racing, jumping and throwing events. The study involved 97 students, three different generations, since 2009 to 2012. In analyzing the data, using the T-test, results that were obtained are statistically significant in explaining the differences between respondent’s disciplines.
Spatial-Temporal Distribution and Habitat Associations of Age-0 Splittail in the Lower San Francisco Estuary Watershed

Abstract The Splittail (Pogonichthys macrolepidotus) is a cyprinid endemic to the San Francisco Estuary and its lower watershed. Although it was recently removed from the Federal Endangered Species Act list of threatened species, it is still a species of concern because of uncertainties regarding its abundance and distribution. Because little information is available on early life stages for which to base management decisions, we examined historical long-term monitoring data and conducted a field study in 2002 and 2003 to examine the distribution and habitat associations of age-0 Splittail. During winter and spring, adults migrate from the upper San Francisco Estuary and the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta upstream into freshwater tributaries and floodplains to spawn. Although previous work suggested a decreasing upstream range for this species, we found that catch data for age-0 Splittail (≤ 50 mm fork length) during a monitoring program spanning 28 years (1976–2003) indicated the upstream-most distribution in the Sacramento River has remained persistent at 232– 296 km upstream from the estuary. Additionally, centers of distribution in the Sacramento and San Joaquin Rivers varied according to hydrology; distance upstream was similar in years of high and intermediate river flows, but increased during low flow years. In all years, age-0 Splittail became abundant in April or May and by June and July had a center of distribution downstream at the margin of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta. Our field study showed that in addition to these two primary tributaries, substantial spawning also occurred in other smaller tributaries with previously uncertain importance to Splittail production, namely the Petaluma River, Napa River, and Butte Slough. We also found that age-0 Splittail favor low velocity shallow-water habitats. Compared to main channel habitats, age-0 Splittail were 6.5 times more common in backwaters in upstream riverine locations, and 3.5 times more common in offchannel intertidal habitats in downstream tidal locations. Our study demonstrates the distribution of Splittail is more widespread than previously believed and underscores the importance of offchannel habitats as nursery areas for age-0 fish.
Biostratinomic Patterns in Archosaur Fossils: Influence of Morphological Organization on Dispersal

The dispersal of 122 specimens of fossil archosaurs and lepidosaurians from different localities throughout the world, catalogued as fossil-lagerstätten, has been characterized. The analysis is based on the quantification of dispersal by the evaluation of burial position, anatomical disarticulation, overlap and significant absences of bony elements. Our goal is to identify commonalities of morphological organization, and to reveal dispersal patterns. First, we explore a theoretical space of burial positions, and seek logical alignments of variables in order to understand the sequence of the earliest biostratinomic phenomena. Dinosauria and the basal avian specimens (Archaeopteryx-like organisms) are biased towards lateral burials with crossed forelimbs or hindlimbs. Pterosauria and Ornithuromorpha have ambivalent burial positions, while Enantiornithes and Confuciusornithidae adopt preferentially dorso-ventral burial positions. There is a significantly negative regression coefficient relating overlap and disarticulation-absence. A high percentage overlap corresponds to a high percentage articulation and completeness of body elements, particularly in laterally lying fossils. Conversely, overlap and disarticulation are not significantly related in specimens with a dorso-ventral burial position. Ambivalence in burial positions is associated with singularities in disarticulation patterns. Aves and Pterosauria both diverge from the general disarticulation sequence of diapsids. The results indicate that dispersal has a strong biological component at least in the initial steps of the biostratinomic process.
Parton distribution functions in the pion from lattice QCD

[. ] We analyze the moments of parton distribution functions in the pion calculated in lattice QCD, paying particular attention to their chiral extrapolation. Using the lowest three nontrivial moments calculated on the lattice, we assess the accuracy with which the x dependence of both the valence and sea quark distributions in the pion can be extracted. The resulting valence quark distributions at the physical pion mass are in fair agreement with existing Drell-Yan data, but the statistical errors are such that one cannot yet confirm ~or rule out! the large-x behavior expected from hadron helicity conservation in perturbative QCD. However, one can expect that the next generation of calculations in lattice QCD will allow one to extract parton distributions with a level of accuracy comparable with current experiments.
A new population and subspecies of the critically endangered Anatolian meadow viper Vipera anatolica Eiselt and Baran, 1970 in eastern Antalya province

We report on a new population of Vipera anatolica from the Geyik Mountain Range in eastern Antalya Province, Turkey. It represents only the second known location, and is situated in a valley about 200 km east from the terra typica at Kohu Dag in western Antalya Province. We compare both populations and, based on marked differences in morphology, habitat, genetics, and its geographically isolated location, we describe the recently discovered population as a new subspecies. Aspects of ecology, threats, and conservation needs are discussed.
Finite Element Approximation of Level Set Motion by Powers of the Mean Curvature

In this paper we study the level set formulations of certain geometric evolution equations from a numerical point of view. Specifically, we consider the flow by powers greater than one of the mean curvature and the inverse mean curvature flow. Since the corresponding equations in level set form are quasilinear, degenerate and especially possibly singular a regularization method is used in the literature to approximate these equations to overcome the singularities of the equations. Motivated by the paper [29] which studies the finite element approximation of inverse mean curvature flow we prove error estimates for the finite element approximation of the regularized equations for the flow by powers of the mean curvature. We validate the rates with numerical examples. Additionally, the regularization error in the rotational symmetric case for both flows is analyzed numerically. All calculations are performed in the 2D case.
Stochastic stability in coalitional bargaining problems

This paper examines a dynamic process of n-person coalitional bargaining problems. We study the stochastic evolution of social conventions by embedding a static bargaining setting in a dynamic process; Over time agents revise their coalitions and surplus distributions in the presence of stochastic payoff shocks which lead agents to make a suboptimal choice. Under a logit specification of choice probabilities, we find that the stability of a core allocation decreases in the wealth of the richest player, and that stochastically stable allocations are core allocations which minimize the wealth of the richest.
Artificial Neural Network based Parameter Estimation and Design Optimization of Loop Antenna

Artificial Neural Network (ANN)s are best suited for prediction and optimization problems. Trained ANNs have found wide spread acceptance in several antenna design systems. Four parameters namely antenna radiation resistance, loss resistance, effi- ciency, and inductance can be used to design an antenna layout though there are several other parameters available. An ANN can be trained to provide the best and worst case precisions of an antenna design problem defined by these four parameters. This work describes the use of an ANN to generate the four mentioned parameters for a loop antenna for the specified frequency range. It also provides insights to the prediction of best and worst-case design problems observed in applications and thereby formulate a model for physical layout design of a loop antenna.
Increased Levels of miR-30e, miR-132, miR-185, and miR- 212 at Baseline and Increased Brain-derived Neurotrophic Factor Protein and mRNA Levels after Treatment in Patients with Major Depressive Disorder

Abstract Background: Brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) is involved in the pathophysiology of major depressive disorder (MDD). In recent years, epigenetic modifications of BDNF in patients of MDD had been investigated, and the role of microRNAs (miRNAs) had not been widely addressed. Methods:From December 2015 to November 2016, patients with MDD and healthy controls were recruited from a medical center in Taiwan. Their serum BDNF protein, BDNF mRNA, and ten miRNAs related to BDNF (miR-16, miR-30e, miR-34c-5p, miR-128, miR-132, miR-134, miR-182, miR-183, miR-185, miR-212) levels were measured and analysed. Some patients required hospitalization, and those markers were measured again after four-week antidepressant treatment. Results: Seventy-four subjects were recruited, including thirty-four patients with MDD and forty healthy controls. Using t-test, patients with MDD had higher levels of miR-30e, miR-132, miR-185, and miR-212 than healthy controls (p = 0.006, 0.000, 0.024, and 0.008, respectively). Using ANCOVA adjusted for sex and age, no statistical significance was found, however. Nineteen patients received one-month antidepressant treatments. Using Wilcoxon signed rank test, BDNF protein and mRNA levels increased significantly after treatment (p = 0.016 and 0.033, respectively). Their miRNA levels showed no significant change after the treatment. Conclusion: Serum miR-30e, miR-132, miR-185, and miR-212 levels were significantly increased in patients with MDD at baseline compared to healthy controls, suggesting miRNAs could be used as potential diagnostic biomarkers. BDNF protein and mRNA levels increased significantly after antidepressant treatment. Antidepressant treatment did not change miRNA levels significantly in our study, probably due to shorter treatment period or small sample size.
An Empirical Study on Factors Affecting Continuance Intention of Using Yu’e Bao

The success of Internet investment products such as Yu’e Bao directly relies on users' continuous participation. However, few researches have examined Internet investment products from the context of post-adoption. The purpose of this paper is to study continuance usage intention toward Yu’e Bao, a prevalent Internet investment product. The dual-process model (DPM) has been used in several studies of information systems continuance. We have extended the DPM by examining the impact of some critical factors that directly influence continuance usage intention including expected earnings, capital liquidity and perceived risk. We used structural equation modelling to validate the proposed model and hypotheses. We discover that perceived usefulness, perceived enjoyment, satisfaction, loyalty, habit, expected earnings and capital liquidity positively influence continuance intention. Perceived risk has a negative effect on continuance usage intention. Furthermore, the results also demonstrate that expected earnings and capital liquidity have positive impacts on users’ perceived risk. The capital liquidity has negative influence on expected earnings. The results provide important implications for research and practice in the field of information systems and finance.
A Closed-Form Solution for the Health Capital Model

This paper provides a closed-form solution for the health capital model of health demand. The results are exploited in order to prove analytically the comparative dynamics of the model. Results are derived for the so called pure investment model, the pure consumption model and a combination of both types of models. Given the plausible assumptions that (i) health declines with age and that (ii) the health capital stock at death is lower than the health capital stock needed for eternal life, it is shown that the optimal solution always implies eternal life. This outcome occurs independently from the initial stock of health, the impact of health on productivity, and the importance of health for utility and it is robust against the introduction of a finite age-dependent rate of health depreciation.
Propiedades térmicas, acústicas y mecánicas de placas de morteros de yeso-caucho.

Se presentan los principales resultados de una investigacion sobre la fabricacion de losas de escayola, que incorporan crecientes fracciones volumetricas de polvo de caucho triturado procedente de neumaticos fuera de uso (NFU), hasta superar el 50% en volumen del producto final. Se describen las dosificaciones y las principales propiedades fisicas y mecanicas de los productos obtenidos, comparandolas entre si y con las de losas similares sin polvo de caucho. Se incluyen tambien medidas experimentales en laboratorio de la conductividad termica y de la reduccion del ruido aereo y a impacto de estas losas, en funcion de su contenido en caucho.
Detection of the Second Harmonic of Decay-less Kink Oscillations in the Solar Corona

EUV observations of a multi-thermal coronal loop, taken by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly of the Solar Dynamics Observatory, which exhibits decay-less kink oscillations are presented. The data cube of the quiet-Sun coronal loop was passed through a motion magnification algorithm to accentuate transverse oscillations. Time–distance maps are made from multiple slits evenly spaced along the loop axis and oriented orthogonal to the loop axis. Displacements of the intensity peak are tracked to generate time series of the loop displacement. Fourier analysis on the time series shows the presence of two periods within the loop: minutes and minutes. The longer period component is greatest in amplitude at the apex and remains in phase throughout the loop length. The shorter period component is strongest further down from the apex on both legs and displays an anti-phase behavior between the two loop legs. We interpret these results as the coexistence of the fundamental and second harmonics of the standing kink mode within the loop in the decay-less oscillation regime. An illustration of seismological application using the ratio P1/2P2 ∼ 0.7 to estimate the density scale height is presented. The existence of multiple harmonics has implications for understanding the driving and damping mechanisms for decay-less oscillations and adds credence to their interpretation as standing kink mode oscillations.
Vortex-Bright Soliton Dipoles: Bifurcations, Symmetry Breaking and Soliton Tunneling in a Vortex-Induced Double Well

The emergence of vortex-bright soliton dipoles in two-component Bose-Einstein condensates through bifurcations from suitable eigenstates of the underlying linear system is examined. These dipoles can have their bright solitary structures be in phase (symmetric) or out of phase (anti-symmetric). The dynamical robustness of each of these two possibilities is considered and the out-of-phase case is found to exhibit an intriguing symmetry-breaking instability that can in turn lead to tunneling of the bright wavefunction between the two vortex "wells". We interpret this phenomenon by virtue of a vortex-induced double well system, whose spontaneous symmetry breaking leads to asymmetric vortex-bright dipoles, in addition to the symmetric and anti-symmetric ones. The theoretical prediction of these states is corroborated by detailed numerical computations.
Seasonal and regional variations in plankton community production and respiration for Chesapeake Bay

Plankton community production and respiration rates were examined at 3 stations representmg distinct regions along the estuanne gradient in the main stem of Chesapeake Bay, USA. Rates were measured as in vitro changes in oxygen concentration, as determined by Winkler titration with an automated photometric end-point detection system. At each station rates of both processes exhibited annual patterns which followed that of water temperature. There were distinct differences, however, among the 3 stations in the relative magnitude of metabolic rates measured. Annual rates of daytime net plankton community production were estimated to be 265, 1680, and 2040 g O2 n r 2 yrW1, while annual night-time plankton community respiration rates in the upper water column were estimated as 130, 1090, and 490 g 0; m 2 y r l at the upper, middle and lower Bay stations, respectively. Thus, whereas rates of net daytime production increased substantially moving downbay, highest measured rates of community respiration were, m fact, found in the middle region of the Bay. Annual cycles of production and respiration rates were significantly related to each other at the upper and middle stations, but unrelated at the lower station. Integrated estimates of net plankton community metabolism (production minus respiration) at the 3 stations exhibited seasonal patterns departing from balanced metabolism (production = respiration) during winter-spring and converging on zero net metabolism in summer-fall. During the cooler months net plankton metabolism was negative (net heterotrophic) at the upper station and positive (net autotrophic) at the middle and lower stations. Over the annual cycle, the 3 stations showed a longitudinal pattern of increasing die1 net plankton community metabolism, progressing from a net heterotrophy of -70 g O2 m 2 y r l in the turbid, upper Bay, to shghtly positive metabolism of 160 g 0; m-2 yr-I m the mid-region, to strong net autotrophy of 760 g Oa m 2 y r l in the less turbid, lower Bay. KEY WORDS' Plankton. Production Respiration. Net community metabohsm . Oxygen. Chesapeake Bay