Association of Fludeoxyglucose F 18–Labeled Positron Emission Tomography and Computed Tomography With the Detection of Oropharyngeal Cancer Recurrence

Importance No guidelines at present describe when fludeoxyglucose F 18–labeled positron emission tomography and computed tomography (FDG PET-CT) should be used in the initial posttreatment period for evaluation of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma treatment outcome and recurrence. Objective To compare accuracies of the initial posttreatment PET-CT between primary treatment groups and to define indicators of false-positive findings. Design, Setting, and Participants This retrospective cohort study identified adults with a new diagnosis of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma who received treatment with curative intent from October 1, 2006, through November 30, 2016, using the Alberta Cancer Registry (n = 380). Patients who underwent PET-CT within 1 year of treatment completion were included (n = 190). Of these, 103 patients (54.2%) had PET-CT findings positive for residual or recurrent disease, and 61 (32.1%) had false-positive findings. Among the 61 patients, 42 (68.9%) had received chemoradiotherapy (CRT) and 19 (31.1%) had primary surgery. Forty-two patients had true-positive findings, indicating a prevalence rate of disease of 22.1%. Data were analyzed from July through October 2017. Exposures One of 2 primary treatment modalities (surgery with or without adjuvant therapy vs CRT). All patients had posttreatment FDG PET-CT. Main Outcomes and Measures Primary outcome measures included the diagnostic odds ratio, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of PET-CT for detecting residual and/or recurrent disease. A multivariate analysis determined indicators of false-positive findings. Discriminative ability was assessed using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis of maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) metabolic data. Results Of the 190 participants, 77.9% were men, with a mean (SD) age at diagnosis of 58.5 (8.5) years. The diagnostic odds ratio was 19.3 (95% CI, 5.7-65.1); pooled sensitivity, 93.3% (95% CI, 80.7%-98.3%); and pooled specificity, 57.9% (95% CI, 49.4%-66.0%). The PPV of detecting disease was 54.7% (95% CI, 38.8%-69.8%) for primary surgery and 31.1% (95% CI, 20.2%-44.4%) for CRT. The NPV was 100% (95% CI, 94.7%-100%) for primary surgery and 96.6% (95% CI, 89.5%-99.1%) for CRT. Multivariate analysis identified treatment type, p16 disease, and smoking status as indicative of false-positive findings. In the receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for primary tumors, the optimal cutoff SUVmax for indicating true- vs false-positive results was 5.1 for surgically treated patients (area under the curve, 0.729; 95% CI, 0.570-0.888) and 5.3 for patients treated with CRT (area under the curve, 0.844; 95% CI, 0.700-0.989). Conclusions and Relevance The results indicate a higher specificity for FDG PET-CT for initial posttreatment surveillance imaging among patients treated with primary surgery compared with nonsurgical management. Both sets of patients with posttreatment FDG PET–CT findings with an SUVmax greater than 5.0 should undergo close evaluation for possible residual or recurrent disease.