Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Rational vs. Professional Forecasts: Implications for Models with Nominal Rigidities∗

We compare theoretical moments of model forecasts to moments of forecasts produced by professional forecasters. We look at a standard sticky-prices-wages model, concluding that it delivers a strong theoretical forecastability of the variables under scrutiny, at odds with the data (professional forecasts). We argue that the lack of compatibility between professional forecasts and this model results from trying to fit (most likely) non-stationary inflation to the model. The model assumes there is a steady-state inflation rate, and the way it finds to fit highly persistent inflation well is to attribute price and wage rigidities a disproportionate role. The (consequently) persistent deviations of inflation from target in this world represent persistent deviations of the economy from its steady-state, leading to overstating the forecastability (i.e. persistence of the deviations from the steady-state) of inflation and other variables. A modified version of the model, ∗Acknowledgements: The authors are grateful to Valerio Ercolani, António Antunes, Nikolay Iskrev, Pedro Teles, Isabel Correia, Bernardino Adão, Andrew C. Harvey, Petra Geraats, Mikhail Pranovich, Eva Ortega, Gabriel PerezQuiros, James Costain, Samuel Hurtado, Juan Francisco Jimeno, Javier Ortega and Michael Ben-Gad for insightful comments and suggestions as well as seminar participants at the University of Cambridge, Banco de Portugal, Banco de España, University of Birmingham, University of Liverpool and City University London. The usual disclaimer applies. Most research was done while João Tovar Jalles was a Visiting Researcher at the Banco de Portugal, whose hospitality is greatly appreciated. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the Banco de Portugal, the IMF or its member states. †Corresponding author: Banco de Portugal, Research Department, Av. Almirante Reis, 71-6th floor, 1150-012 Lisboa, Portugal. E-mail: azevedojv@gmail.com ‡Email: jjalles@IMF.org
PII: S0014-2921(01)00163-5

Using a small empirical model of in/ation, output, and money estimated on U.S. data, we compare the relative performance of monetary targeting and in/ation targeting. The results show monetary targeting to be quite ine3cient, yielding both higher in/ation and output variability. This is true even with a nonstochastic money demand formulation. Our results are also robust to using a P∗ model of in/ation. Therefore, in these popular frameworks, there is no support for the prominent role given to money growth in the Eurosystem’s monetary policy strategy. c © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved. JEL classi1cation: E42; E52; E58
Risk Factors of Adolescent Pregnancy in Kabale District - Uganda

Adolescents in Uganda are increasingly starting sexual intercourse at early ages in their lives. Hence the study offers an in-depth analysis of the relative contribution of some sociodemographic factors in explaining adolescent pregnancy in Kabale district. Using primary data collected from different parts of the district, a sample of 301 female adolescents in age range of 10-24 years was studied. Results from the above models indicate that the level of education, place of residence, sex and age had significant impact on the dependent variable (adolescent pregnancy) while place of birth, religion and ethnicity were not significantly connected to adolescent pregnancy. The majority of the respondents were from rural areas. Adolescents who were peasants and rural based had a high percentage of pregnancy compared to those from urban areas. Some of the risk factors that were likely to affect adolescents to have unwanted pregnancy were; peasantry, coming from a rural area, staying with parents, exposure to television messages, poor economic status, print media, lack of privacy, marriage before 18 years, lack of sex education and counselling against pregnancy. These factors were considered to pose high risks to adolescents because of studies that have been carried out by UNBOS, WHO, UNFPA and other health international organizations in developing contries. The district health team should therefore intensify health education through information, education and communication materials geared towards risk reducation of adolescent pregnancy. These materials should mainly target peasents and adolescent girls. Kabale district local council should lobby for a loan scheme from the central government, NGOs and other donors for the people to start income generating projects to reduce household poverty and also enact a by-law for girl children not to marry before the age of 18 years. Advocacy for proper house designs to ensure privacy between children and parents should be done by the district local leaders. Sex education should be started as early as 12 years by parents and teachers. The study therefore recommends effective programs for adolescents with their involvement. There is great benefit in strengthening their knowledge and skills through sex education. Greater efforts are essential in dealing with their special needs and appropraite services should be made available.
Noble metal applications for SCC mitigation in BWRs: platinum nanoparticle penetration into crevices and cracks under controlled flow conditions

Most of the US boiling water reactor (BWR) fleet and three European BWRs use noble metal injection to mitigate stress corrosion cracking (SCC) of reactor components. Despite the wide use of this technology there are still open questions regarding the chemical and physical parameters affecting the application process and the possible improvements to it. Since 2010 the Paul Scherrer Institut (PSI), in the frame of a joint effort with the Swiss Nuclear Safety Inspectorate (ENSI) and the Swiss nuclear power plants of Leibstadt (KKL) and Mühleberg (KKM), is addressing these questions. A recurrent question is how deep the Pt nanoparticles can enter into cracks, crevices and other confined spaces and thus provide in conjunction with H2 the desired lowering effect on the electrochemical corrosion potential. With this in mind, tests were performed using a high-temperature water loop at PSI where coupon specimens with crevices or cracks were exposed to water carrying Pt particles. In parallel computational fluid dynamics calculations were performed to better understand the flow conditions in the crevices. It was found that under a set of given flow conditions, the penetration of the Pt into the cracks and crevices was strongly dependent on the opening width and orientation with respect to the flow direction. Active flow in the crevice is essential to achieve significant Pt surface loadings. Local variations in Pt surface loading seem to be correlated with changes in flow velocity and direction.
EVALUATION OF ACARICIDAL ACTIVITY OF PURPUREOCILLIUM LILACINUM ISOLATED FROM EGYPTIAN SOIL AGAINST TETRANYCHUS URTICAE

he study is aimed to isolate and identify a potential entomopathogenic fungus from fields infested with spider mites and evaluate them as a bio-rationale agent against Tetranychus urticae Koch. , which is an important agricultural pest that infests horticultural crops in both field and greenhouses. Macroscopic and microscopic characteristics showed that the obtained entomogenous isolate was Purpureocillium lilacinum (formerly, Paecilomyces lilacinus). P. Lilacinum demonstrated mortality rates on adult females of T. urticae of 71.19 and 77.97% with conidial concentrations of and 1.6 , respectively,
Genomic sites hypersensitive to ultraviolet radiation

Significance Identifying sites in the human genome that are extraordinarily sensitive to ultraviolet radiation (UV) would make it easier to measure a person’s past UV exposure and thus predict that person’s future skin cancer risk. This paper reports that human melanocytes, responsible for skin and hair color, contain over 2,000 such genomic sites that are up to 170-fold more sensitive than the average site. These sites occur at specific locations near genes, so may let UV radiation drive direct changes in cell physiology rather than act through rare mutations. If the genome contains outlier sequences extraordinarily sensitive to environmental agents, these would be sentinels for monitoring personal carcinogen exposure and might drive direct changes in cell physiology rather than acting through rare mutations. New methods, adductSeq and freqSeq, provided statistical resolution to quantify rare lesions at single-base resolution across the genome. Primary human melanocytes, but not fibroblasts, carried spontaneous apurinic sites and TG sequence lesions more frequent than ultraviolet (UV)-induced cyclobutane pyrimidine dimers (CPDs). UV exposure revealed hyperhotspots acquiring CPDs up to 170-fold more frequently than the genomic average; these sites were more prevalent in melanocytes. Hyperhotspots were disproportionately located near genes, particularly for RNA-binding proteins, with the most-recurrent hyperhotspots at a fixed position within 2 motifs. One motif occurs at ETS family transcription factor binding sites, known to be UV targets and now shown to be among the most sensitive in the genome, and at sites of mTOR/5′ terminal oligopyrimidine-tract translation regulation. The second occurs at A2–15TTCTY, which developed “dark CPDs” long after UV exposure, repaired CPDs slowly, and had accumulated CPDs prior to the experiment. Motif locations active as hyperhotspots differed between cell types. Melanocyte CPD hyperhotspots aligned precisely with recurrent UV signature mutations in individual gene promoters of melanomas and with known cancer drivers. At sunburn levels of UV exposure, every cell would have a hyperhotspot CPD in each of the ∼20 targeted cell pathways, letting hyperhotspots act as epigenetic marks that create phenome instability; high prevalence favors cooccurring mutations, which would allow tumor evolution to use weak drivers.
EFFECT OF BIOLOGICALLY TREATED SUGAR BEET PULP ON LACTATING GOAT PERFORMANCE

This study amid to investigate the effect of using sugar beet pulp (SBP) untreated or treated with biological treatments to replace about 30% of common concentrate feed mixture of goat diets. In vitro experiment was carried out to study the effect of control, treated and untreated SBP on nutrients disappearance. Experimental diets included T1: Concentrate feed mixture (CFM) + Berseem hay (BH) (control). T2: CFM + untreated SBP + BH. T3: CFM + SBP treated with Sacharomyces cerevisiae + BH. T4: CFM + SBP treated with Clostridium cellulovorans + BH. T5: CFM + SBP treated with Trichoderma harzianum + BH. Thirty five female Barki goats (about 4 years old and weighing 30±1.5 kg) were randomly divided into five groups fed the experimental diets. The experimental period lasted 270 day to study the effect treatments on goat doe performance during pregnancy and lactation stages and their kids performance until weaning. A digestibility trial was carried out at the third month of pregnancy. The results revealed that biological treatments significantly (P≤0.05) increased body weight and feed intake. Also, biological treatments significantly (P≤0.05) improved chemical composition, digestibility coefficients, nitrogen balance, water balance, rumen fermentations, milk yield and composition, birth and weaning weight. It could be concluded that, inclusion of untreated or biologically treated SBP to replace 30% of common concentrate feed mixture of during pregnancy and lactation stages had remarkable improved influence on goat performance.
Morpho-Syntactic Awareness in a Character-Level Language Model

This thesis presents the results of an exploratory study into the morpho-syntactic awareness of character-level neural language models. The aim is to identify the source of performance and limitations of these models, such that future research can make theoryinformed efforts toward advancement. We analyze an English character-to-character language model in isolation and as embedded into systems for morphological and syntactic analysis. Findings point to an ability of the model to identify units of higher order, such as morphemes and words, when an explicit cue is available. We further run linguistic experiments on the model and observe that its ability to learn morphosyntactic regularities is conditioned on its access to the relevant units. These findings imply a limitation in the applicability of character-level models to their main target group, morphologically-rich languages.
CLOUD-RESOLVING ENSEMBLE SIMULATIONS OF THE AUGUST 2005 FLOOD

Quantitative precipitation forecasting is a challenging task, which may be improved using higher-resolution numerical weather prediction models and/or ensemble prediction systems (EPS). This study explores the potential benefits of applying a cloud-resolving EPS over its driving limited-area EPS (LEPS) for the August 2005 Alpine flood. The cloud-resolving EPS is based on the LM model, includes an explicit treatment of deep convection (2.2-km grid spacing) and dynamically downscales the COSMO-LEPS information. A second cloud-resolving EPS is further constructed by perturbing only the LM initial fields. Comparison of the cloud-resolving and of the driving lower-resolution LEPS pinpoints to the high skill of both ensembles in simulating the major phase of heavy precipitation. Ensemble means and spreads are roughly equivalent and the resolution-induced differences tend to be smaller than typical member-to-member variability. Larger discrepancies are found over regions of moist convective instability owing to the excessive production of rain by the LEPS convective parameterization. Comparison of the two cloud-resolving EPS further reveals that the domain-internal predictability is rather high for this particular case and that the induced precipitation spread is mainly dominated by uncertainties advected from the lateral boundary conditions into the high-resolution domain.
Hemogram abnormalities in apparently healthy first-time blood donors in Libreville, Gabon.

Background: The objective of this study was to determine complete blood count (CBC) abnormalities in Libreville blood donors to advocate for hemoglobin pre-donation implementation and to take into account CBC results in blood donation qualification. Methods: This retrospective study was conducted with 4573 blood donors in March 2016 and from January to April 2017. CBC was performed using SysmexXP-300TM hematology analyzer (SYSMEX Corporation, Kobe, Japan). Results: Blood donors were predominantly males (83.7%) with an age ranging from 18 to 59 years. The abnormalities of leukocyte, platelet and erythrocyte counts were determined in blood donors. Leukopenia and thrombocytopenia were significantly more common in men than women (29.02% vs 24.4%, p = 0.011 and 16.2% vs 7.5%, p <0.001). Only 1.0% of women and 0.84% of men have leukocytosis, and 0.7% of women and 0.2% of men have thrombocytosis. Anemia was significantly more common in women compared to men (69.4% vs. 45.0%, P <0.001). Normocytic normochromic and normocytic hypochromic anemia were most common among Libreville blood donors with 39.4% and 23.6%; followed by microcytic normochromic (18.7%) and microcytic hypochromic (13.2%) anemia. Normocytic normochromic and normocytic hypochromic anemia were significantly more common in men than in women, whereas microcytic normochromic anemia was more prevalent among women compared to men (34.6% vs. 13.9%, p <0.001). Conclusions: The results of this study clearly show the need to perform a pre-donation hemoglobin test in blood donors and to take into account their hemogram in the blood donation selection process at the Libreville National Blood Transfusion Center. Keywords: Hemogram, Anemia, Blood Donors, Libreville, Gabon.
Distribution of Income (Including Minimum Wage); Comparison of Societies as Studied by a Molecular-Dynamics Algorithm and Analytical Techniques

In this research we tried to answer the question: How to optimize the total production of economy. For finding the answer we used two postulates: First, a worker is incentivated to work if it pays off. When in the income ranking the neighbor below earns less and the one above earns more the worker will work harder and produce more. The productivity of the worker is proportional to this ’derivative’ in the income curve. (Note: a worker’s salary is not assumed necessarily proportional to his productivity). The second postulate depends on who is in control of the production process. In highly-simplified naming: In capitalism, the capital takes the decisions, in a democracy the people do, by vote. We also simulated a dictatorial system in which decisions can be imposedby a (benevolent) dictator. We used these ingredients in evolutionary computation. Starting with an arbitrary initial distribution, we make random small changes to it and if the total production increases, a decision will be made whether to implement these changes. This procedure is repeated until the distribution is stable. Remarkably, the outcomes for ’democracy’ and ’capitalism’ are similar. Capitalism and democracy go hand-in-hand together: One person getting all income, two people working, and most not working and not receiving. These results are also analytically found. In ’communism’, nobody works and everybody perishes. In a ’dictatorial’ system we can optimize production for the benefit of the people, and come to the conclusion that the introduction of minimum wages is beneficial, and these should be 50% of the average income.
Frequency of Thyroid Dysfunctions in General Population of Peshawar City and Its Association with Serum Alanine Transaminase Level

OBJECTIVE: To determine the frequency distribution of thyroid dysfunctions and its association with Alanine Transaminase (ALT) level in the local population of Peshawar city. STUDY DESIGN: A Cross sectional study st st PLACE AND DURATION OF STUDY: This study was carried out from 01 March 2014 to 31 June 2014 in Khyber Teaching Hospital (KTH), Peshawar and was approved by the ethical committee of KTH (letter no 21876/KTH/ P.S) METHODOLOGY: The study population consisting of 137 individuals was divided into three groups as “H” (Hyperthyroid); “h” (Hypothyroid) and “N” (Normal control) for the study purpose. Serum T and T analysis was done for all the study population by 3 4 competitive and TSH by sandwich ELISA technique. Serum ALT (Alanine Transaminase) was measured according to IFCC standard protocol. RESULTS: The mean value of ALT of “H” (Hyperthyroid) group was higher (67.07± 187.1 IU/L) as compared to “N”) (53.33 ±33.32 IU/L) and “h'' (Hypothyroid) (32.4± 34.93 IU/L) group. Significant positive correlation was found for ALT with age and TSH in the “N” group (p= 0.04) while negative correlation was observed in the “h” group. In “H” group no significant correlation was observed for ALT with other parameters. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of thyroid dysfunction was found to be higher in female as compared to male population. Derangement of serum ALT level was observed in both hyperthyroid and hypothyroid patients.
GARDEN OWNERSHIP AS A SOLUTION TO FOOD INSECURITY IN URBAN AREAS OF SOUTH AFRICA: CASE OF FOOD GARDENS IN ALICE TOWN, EASTERN CAPE PROVINCE

Programs like Siyazondla Homestead Gardens, Siyakhula and Massive Food Production Program were introduced by the provincial government of the Eastern Cape province with the aim of improving household food production, nutrition and food security. However, full ownership of food gardens by households has been a challenge. Thus, this paper investigates the factors influencing the ownership of home gardens by Alice Town households. Households in Alice Town, Eastern Cape province were purposively selected for data collection, and a structured questionnaire was employed. A binary logistic regression model was adopted to determine the factors that influence food gardens ownership among the sampled households. Results show that three variables that influenced food gardens ownership were location, land access and education level. These variables had a significance level of 5%. The paper concludes that having access to food gardens by city dwellers can help improve their food security status. However, owning a garden is a challenge due to the variables highlighted. Thus, it is important to promote associations in urban areas and provide training and workshops that can improve the productivity of home garden owners. This is how access to better nutrition and safe, rich and fresh vegetables can be achieved.
Goal-Orientation, Goal-Setting, and Goal-Driven Behavior in Minimalist User Instructions

This paper opens with a summary of minimalist design strategies that aim to optimize user instructions. Next, it discusses three research efforts to further improve these strategies. The common focus in these efforts is the attention to people's goal-related management and control of attention, time, and effort. First, a comprehensive framework for designing procedures - the four components model - is described. The design principles for the goal component focus on supporting the user's goal orientation and goal setting. Second, two experiments are reported that studied the problem of when it is best to present conceptual information. When instructions employed a learning-by-doing approach, users clearly preferred a work-flow mode of presentation. This mode optimally exploits the user's momentary interest in conceptual information during goal-driven task execution. The third research effort concentrates on user affect in instructions. The main idea is that motivation and emotion play a key role in task appraisals and corresponding actions. After discussing theories and design approaches, an experiment is discussed in which instructions were optimized for affect. Good results for perceived relevance and self-confidence were found in all conditions. Presence of an affect-oriented co-user did not enhance these effects. The paper concludes that the contribution of the efforts extends beyond the minimalist framework from which they originated.
TARA: Topology-Aware Resource Adaptation to Alleviate Congestion in Sensor Networks

Network congestion can be alleviated either by reducing demand (traffic control) or by increasing capacity (resource control). Unlike in traditional wired or other wireless counterparts, sensor network deployments provide elastic resource availability for satisfying the fidelity level required by applications. In many cases, using traffic control can violate fidelity requirements. Hence, we propose the use of resource control: increasing capacity by enabling more nodes to become active during periods of congestion. However, a naive approach to increase resources without a careful consideration of the type of congestion, traffic pattern, and network topology make the situation worse. In this paper, we present TARA, a topology-aware resource adaptation strategy to alleviate congestion. The core of TARA is our capacity analysis model, which can be used to estimate capacity of various topologies. Detailed performance results show that TARA can achieve data delivery rate and energy consumption that is close to an ideal offline resource control algorithm.