Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Collective Activity of Many Bistable Assemblies Reproduces Characteristic Dynamics of Multistable Perception

The timing of perceptual decisions depends on both deterministic and stochastic factors, as the gradual accumulation of sensory evidence (deterministic) is contaminated by sensory and/or internal noise (stochastic). When human observers view multistable visual displays, successive episodes of stochastic accumulation culminate in repeated reversals of visual appearance. Treating reversal timing as a “first-passage time” problem, we ask how the observed timing densities constrain the underlying stochastic accumulation. Importantly, mean reversal times (i.e., deterministic factors) differ enormously between displays/observers/stimulation levels, whereas the variance and skewness of reversal times (i.e., stochastic factors) keep characteristic proportions of the mean. What sort of stochastic process could reproduce this highly consistent “scaling property? ” Here we show that the collective activity of a finite population of bistable units (i.e., a generalized Ehrenfest process) quantitatively reproduces all aspects of the scaling property of multistable phenomena, in contrast to other processes under consideration (Poisson, Wiener, or Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process). The postulated units express the spontaneous dynamics of attractor assemblies transitioning between distinct activity states. Plausible candidates are cortical columns, or clusters of columns, as they are preferentially connected and spontaneously explore a restricted repertoire of activity states. Our findings suggests that perceptual representations are granular, probabilistic, and operate far from equilibrium, thereby offering a suitable substrate for statistical inference. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Spontaneous reversals of high-level perception, so-called multistable perception, conform to highly consistent and characteristic statistics, constraining plausible neural representations. We show that the observed perceptual dynamics would be reproduced quantitatively by a finite population of distinct neural assemblies, each with locally bistable activity, operating far from the collective equilibrium (generalized Ehrenfest process). Such a representation would be consistent with the intrinsic stochastic dynamics of neocortical activity, which is dominated by preferentially connected assemblies, such as cortical columns or clusters of columns. We predict that local neuron assemblies will express bistable dynamics, with spontaneous active-inactive transitions, whenever they contribute to high-level perception.
Bond Risk Premia and the Exchange Rate

In emerging market economies, currency appreciation goes hand in hand with compressed sovereign bond spreads, even for local currency sovereign bonds. This yield compression comes from a reduction in the credit risk premium. Crucially, the relevant exchange rate involved in yield compression is the bilateral US dollar exchange rate, not the trade-weighted exchange rate. Our findings highlight endogenous co-movement of bond risk premia and exchange rates through the portfolio choice of global investors who evaluate returns in dollar terms.
Regulation of murine lymphokine production in vivo II. Dehydroepiandrosterone is a natural enhancer of interleukin 2 synthesis by helper T cells

Dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) is an adrenal steroid hormone produced in abundance by humans and most other warm‐blooded animals, is uniquely sulfated (DHEAS) prior to export into the plasma, and exhibits an age‐related decline in production with progressive age. No major physiological functions have been ascribed to the activity of this steroid, although DHEA is known to serve as an intermediary in sex steroid synthesis. Studies on the effects of glucocorticoids (GCS) on the immune system led us to question whether DHEA had effects on the ability of activated lymphocytes to produce interleukin 2 (IL 2). We determined that (a) lymphocytes from DHEA‐ or DHEAS‐treated mice consistently produced much greater levels of IL 2 than normals in response to stimulation, (b) direct lymphocyte exposure to DHEA at low doses (10−10 – 10−7 M) caused an enhanced capacity to secrete IL 2 following activation, (c) IL 2 production by activated cloned T cell lines could be augmented by DHEA treatment, and (d) GCS‐induced depressions in IL 2 synthesis by T cells or T cell clones could be overcome in vitro and in vivo by exposure to the effects of DHEA. These findings suggest that DHEA, presumably through receptor‐mediated mechanisms similar to other types of seroid hormones, may represent a natural and important regulator of IL 2 production in both normal and pathologic conditions.
An Agent-Based Model to Explain the Emergence of Stylised Facts in Log Returns

This paper outlines an agent-based model of a simple financial market in which a single asset is available for trade by three different types of traders. The model was first introduced in the PhD thesis of one of the authors, see reference [1]. The simulated log returns are examined for the presence of the stylised facts of financial data. The features of leptokurtosis, volatility clustering and aggregational Gaussianity are especially highlighted and studied in detail. The following ingredients are found to be essential for the production of these stylised facts: the memory of noise traders who make random trade decisions; the inclusion of technical traders that trade in line with trends in the price and the inclusion of fundamental traders who know the "fundamental value" of the stock and trade accordingly. When these three basic types of traders are included log returns are produced with a leptokurtic distribution and volatility clustering as well as some further statistical features of empirical data. This enhances and broadens our understanding of the fundamental processes involved in the production of empirical data by the market.
Study on the Causality Nexus between Macroeconomic Variables Using Vector Error Correction Modeling

The reason behind the execution of this research is to investigate the dynamic co-integration association of economic growth with its selected four determinants which include foreign direct investment (FDI), consumer price index (CPI), net export (NE) and personal remittances (PR) in Thailand, a developing economy. The paper examines empirically the association of economic growth with its determinants by employing Johansen Co-Integration Test, Granger Causality Test and Variance Decomposition between time-period of 1980-2013. Empirical results reveal the presence of co-integration among the considered variables whereby it is noticed that economic growth of Thailand is influenced by personal remittances and net exports. The Granger Causality Test supports unidirectional causality from LNE to LGDP (LNE→LGDP) and from LCPI to LNE (LCPI→LNE). Furthermore the study evidences feedback causality among LPR and LGDP. The variance decomposition results recommend that unsettling influences starting from LGDP incur most prominent variability of 69 percent followed by 31 percent of the variation explained by the remaining four variables. La relazione di causalita tra variabili macro-economiche tramite l’utilizzo di un modello Vector Error Correction Il fine di questo studio e analizzare l’associazione di cointegrazione dinamica del tasso di crescita economica in Tailandia, con 4 determinanti: gli investimenti diretti esteri, l’indice dei prezzi al consumo, le esportazioni nette e le rimesse personali. L’articolo esamina empiricamente questa relazione tramite l’utilizzo del test di cointegrazione di Johansen, del test di causalita di Granger e della scomposizione di varianza nel periodo 1980-2013. I risultati empirici evidenziano la presenza di cointegrazione tra le variabili considerate, laddove si nota che la crescita in Tailandia e influenzata dalle rimesse personali e dalle esportazioni nette. Il test di causalita di Granger suggerisce l’esistenza di causalita unidirezionale da LNE a LGDP e da LCPI a LNE, oltre ad un riscontro di causalita tra LPR e LGDP. I risultati della scomposizione di varianza evidenziano che importanti influenze provenienti da LGDP causano una variabilita massima del 69%, seguita dal 31% di variazione dovuta alle rimanenti 4 variabili.
A New Approach to the Analysis of Cooperation Under the Shadow of the Future: Theory and Experimental Evidence

The theory of infinitely repeated games lacks predictive power due to equilibrium multiplicity and its insensitivity to, for example, changes in certain parameters, the timing of players' moves or communication possibilities. We propose a new approach, which mitigates the shortcomings of the theory. In particular, we study a standard infinitely repeated prisoner's dilemma game and its variants with (i) heterogeneous tastes for cooperation, and (ii) strategic risk arising from incomplete information about the opponent's taste for cooperation. We theoretically show that the variants we study reduce strategic risk and boost cooperation and coordination on cooperation relative to the standard game, unlike what a theory based on pure material self-interest of players would predict. Our theoretical results are corroborated by the results of our experiments.
Novel retroviral vectors for efficient expression of the multidrug resistance (mdr-1) gene in early hematopoietic cells

We present data that retroviral gene expression in early hematopoietic cells is subjected to transcriptional controls similar to those previously described for embryonic stem cells. Transient transfection experiments revealed that both the viral enhancer region in the U3 region of the long terminal repeat as well as a repressor element coincident with the primer binding site of Moloney leukemia viruses are limiting for expression in hematopoietic cells in a differentiation-dependent manner. Within the group of Moloney leukemia virus-related viruses, only the myeloproliferative sarcoma virus showed high enhancer activity in myeloid (including erythroid) cells. In contrast, enhancer regions related to the Friend mink cell focus-forming viruses mediate much higher gene expression levels in both multipotent and lineage-committed myeloid cells. In addition, transcriptional repression related to sequences in the primer binding site of Moloney leukemia virus-derived vectors is also found in early hematopoietic cells and can be overcome by using the corresponding sequences of the murine embryonic stem cell virus. On the basis of these results, two types of novel retroviral hybrid vectors were developed; they combine the U3 regions of either the Friend mink cell focus-forming virus family or the myeloproliferative sarcoma virus with the primer binding site of the murine embryonic stem cell virus. When used to express the human multiple drug resistance gene, these vectors substantially improve protection to cytostatic drugs in transduced hematopoietic cell lines FDC-Pmix, TF-1, and K-562 in comparison with Moloney leukemia virus-derived vectors presently used for the stem cell protection approach in somatic gene therapy.
The Effects of Noncontributory Pensions on Material and Subjective Well-Being

Public expenditures on noncontributory pensions are equivalent to at least 1% of gross domestic product in several countries in Latin America and are expected to increase. We explore the effect of noncontributory pensions on well-being by studying the Pension 65 program in Peru, which uses a poverty eligibility threshold. Households with a beneficiary increased their level of consumption by 40%. The program improved subjective well-being by 0.17 standard deviations. Comparing our findings to those we published in 2016, we conclude the effects of noncontributory pensions on well-being in rural Mexico are comparable to those found in Peru.
Agricultural Composition, Structural Change and Labor Productivity

The differences in labor productivity between developed and developing countries are substantially larger in agriculture than in non-agriculture. We argue that structural change within agricultural sectors explains part of these differences. We consider two agricultural sectors that are differentiated only by the capital intensity of the production function. As capital accumulates, the price of the non-capital intensive agricultural sector relative to the price of the capital intensive agricultural sector increases. This price change drives a process of structural change within agriculture that depends on the value of the elasticity of substitution among agricultural goods. When this elasticity is large, we show that this structural change driven by capital accumulation implies (i) a reduction in the number of farmers; (ii) an increase in the average farm size; (iii) an increase in the capital intensity of the agricultural sector relative to the non-agricultural sector; and (iv) an increase in the labor productivity of the agricultural sector relative to the non-agricultural sector. We highlight that if the elasticity is low then the sectoral composition within the agricultural sector remains constant, which implies that capital intensity does not increase, the increase in the average farm size is small and, hence, the increase in the labor productivity of the agricultural sector is also small. We conclude that structural change within agriculture contributes to explain the fast increase in agricultural productivity.
Performance of Media in Pakistan in Creating Awareness about Population as an Economic Problem

Pakistan has become the sixth largest populous country and the third largest contributor of the world. At the time of independence in 1947 it was 14 in rank with a population size of 33.5 million that has explosively grown to 180 million, with annual net growth of 30 million, making population growth the real economic problem. In context of basic most resource of water Pakistan went from surplus in 1950 to relatively abundant in 1980; water stressed by about 2010 and will be water scarcity by 2035. PEDA model analysis, with the variables of Population, Environment, Development and Agriculture has proven population as real economic problem in Pakistan. Pakistani media unfortunately been used to indoctrinate nationalistic ethos like Islamization and protect military rulers, as media was govt owned. Dilemma continued and still going on even in era of private media in the country . as private media is like a pure commercial activity, trying to share power as a political actor and gathering a repute of sensationalism. Genesis of media performance and strength as institution in Pakistan can be traced from its vital role played in the independence of country. Efforts have also been made to study factors of personal and institutional barriers that may hinder the process of bringing change in people’s mindset in favour of having fewer children. The research highlights that though media has the responsibility of representing thoughts and feelings with regard to any social problem and guide people to take steps, the Pakistani media has presented the social problems like population growth but has failed in converting the Performance of Pakistani media 12 thoughts and feelings into actions. Data were analysed separately for the two groups of participants. Media experts were interviewed to obtain more in-depth information on the variables of interest. The primary data findings corroborated the results of secondary data findings. The results of the surveys indicate that both the students and media experts think that the media in Pakistan is strong. It has proved its strength time and again. Still, it has never focused on population as a problem. Failure of media performance can be gauged from the fact that a high percentage of media experts, obviously with maximum media exposure, who were interviewed, did not know the rank of Pakistan in the world population and a clear majority did not know the net growth of 30 million in already overpopulated country. Without realizing how big the issue is, they cannot pay the due attention towards this issue. Performance of Pakistani media 13
Forecast errors and monetary policy normalisation in the euro area

This Policy Contribution was prepared for the Nomura Foundation’s Macro Economy Research Conference - ‘Monetary Policy Normalization Ten Years after the Great Recession’, 24 October 2018, Tokyo. Financial support from the Nomura Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. We consider the lessons of the recent monetary policy normalisation experiences of Sweden, the United States and the United Kingdom, and analyse the European Central Bank’s forecasting track record and possible factors that might explain the forecast errors. From this analysis, we draw the following main conclusions - Monetary tightening involves major risks when the evidence of an improved inflation outlook is not sufficiently strong; it is better to err on the side of a possible inflation overshoot after a long period of undershooting; Inadequate forward guidance can cause market turbulence; Market participants might disregard forward guidance after large systematic forecast errors; Terminating net asset purchases might not increase long-term rates, though it might have an impact on other asset prices because of the lack of portfolio rebalancing; The ECB has made huge and systematic forecasting errors in the past five years, indicating that some of the behavioural relationships in ECB forecasting models are mis-specified. The ECB is not the only institution to suffer from incorrect forecasts and there should be broader debate on forecasting practices. However, the ECB’s forecast errors and its inability to lift core inflation above 1 percent have major implications; Market-based inflation expectations have already started to fall in the euro area, suggesting that the trust has weakened in the ECB’s ability to reach its inflation aim of the below but close to two percent over the medium term; More time is needed to see if the forecasting failures of the past five years were driven by factors whose impact will gradually fade away, or if the ECB’s ability to lift core inflation has been compromised; In the meantime, a very cautious approach to monetary policy normalisation is recommended. A rate increase is only recommended after a significant increase in actual core inflation. This intention should be made clear in the ECB’s forward guidance; If forecasting failures continue and core inflation does not approach two percent, the ECB’s credibility could be undermined, making necessary a discussion on either the deployment of new tools to influence core inflation, or a possible revision of the ECB’s inflation goal; In the new ‘normal’ the natural rate of interest might remain low, and thereby central bank balance sheet policies will likely became part of the regular toolkit; Monetary policy tools are ill-suited to address financial stability concerns in general, especially in the euro area. Financial stability concerns should not play a role in monetary policy normalisation. Instead, country-specific macroprudential policy should complement micro-prudential supervision and regulation.
Who Reveals, Who Conceals?: Candidate Gender and Policy Transparency

Do women candidates in the United States more openly provide the specific details of their policy preferences and make clear their political ideology? Previous research supports all manner of conflicting expectations regarding gender and campaign communication strategies. Here, with an eye toward offering evidence on the degree to which candidates make clear their issue positions, we consider how more than 1,300 candidates running in the 2016 elections from fifteen randomly chosen states answered voter guide questions. We do so both to better understand the murky theoretical relationship between gender and communication styles and to offer insight into the practical realities of how women run for office. Ultimately our findings support the notion that women run for office differently, offering less transparency of their issue positions than men. The implication, consistent with a theory of conditional political ambition, is that women weigh more seriously the decision to run for office and, thus, run more sophisticated campaigns when they do pursue office.
Comparison of sequence profiles. Strategies for structural predictions using sequence information

Distant homologies between proteins are often discovered only after three‐dimensional structures of both proteins are solved. The sequence divergence for such proteins can be so large that simple comparison of their sequences fails to identify any similarity. New generation of sensitive alignment tools use averaged sequences of entire homologous families (profiles) to detect such homologies. Several algorithms, including the newest generation of BLAST algorithms and BASIC, an algorithm used in our group to assign fold predictions for proteins from several genomes, are compared to each other on the large set of structurally similar proteins with little sequence similarity. Proteins in the benchmark are classified according to the level of their similarity, which allows us to demonstrate that most of the improvement of the new algorithms is achieved for proteins with strong functional similarities, with almost no progress in recognizing distant fold similarities. It is also shown that details of profile calculation strongly influence its sensitivity in recognizing distant homologies. The most important choice is how to include information from diverging members of the family, avoiding generating false predictions, while accounting for entire sequence divergence within a family. PSI‐BLAST takes a conservative approach, deriving a profile from core members of the family, providing a solid improvement without almost any false predictions. BASIC strives for better sensitivity by increasing the weight of divergent family members and paying the price in lower reliability. A new FFAS algorithm introduced here uses a new procedure for profile generation that takes into account all the relations within the family and matches BASIC sensitivity with PSI‐BLAST like reliability.
Development of a Comprehensive Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Screening Algorithm for Discovery and Preclinical Testing of Topical Microbicides

ABSTRACT Topical microbicides are self-administered, prophylactic products for protection against sexually transmitted pathogens. A large number of compounds with known anti-human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) inhibitory activity have been proposed as candidate topical microbicides. To identify potential leads, an in vitro screening algorithm was developed to evaluate candidate microbicides in assays that assess inhibition of cell-associated and cell-free HIV-1 transmission, entry, and fusion. The algorithm advances compounds by evaluation in a series of defined assays that generate measurements of relative antiviral potency to determine advancement or failure. Initial testing consists of a dual determination of inhibitory activity in the CD4-dependent CCR5-tropic cell-associated transmission inhibition assay and in the CD4/CCR5-mediated HIV-1 entry assay. The activity is confirmed by repeat testing, and identified actives are advanced to secondary screens to determine their effect on transmission of CXCR4-tropic viruses in the presence or absence of CD4 and their ability to inhibit CXCR4- and CCR5-tropic envelope-mediated cell-to-cell fusion. In addition, confirmed active compounds are also evaluated in the presence of human seminal plasma, in assays incorporating a pH 4 to 7 transition, and for growth inhibition of relevant strains of lactobacilli. Leads may then be advanced for specialized testing, including determinations in human cervical explants and in peripheral blood mononuclear cells against primary HIV subtypes, combination testing with other inhibitors, and additional cytotoxicity assays. PRO 2000 and SPL7013 (the active component of VivaGel), two microbicide products currently being evaluated in human clinical trials, were tested in this in vitro algorithm and were shown to be highly active against CCR5- and CXCR4-tropic HIV-1 infection.