Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Effects of Risk Aversion on the Value of Information in Two-Action Decision Problems

This paper analyzes the value of information in a two-action decision problem where a decision maker is deciding on whether to accept an uncertain investment. We investigate the effects of the decision maker's risk aversion function on the value of information in this setting. We analyze the value of perfect information and the value of partition information where a decision maker with deterministic initial wealth receives information specifying that the outcome lies within a subset of the domain. We show that if two decision makers reject the investment without the information, then the more risk-averse decision maker will value information both perfect and partition, less than the less risk averse one. On the other hand, if both decision makers initially accept the investment, or are indifferent to the investment without the information, then i the more risk-averse decision maker will value perfect information higher than the less risk-averse one, but ii this monotonicity result need not apply for the case of partition information. These results enable us to compare the value of information when decision makers have different risk aversion levels. They also hold when comparison of risk aversion is restricted only to a domain defined by the lottery.
An economic interpretation of conflict in Burundi

This paper uses economic and political analyses to investigate the economics of civil conflicts in Burundi. It shows that conflicts in Burundi have resulted from a combination of poverty, governance policies of exclusion and the fight for the control of the country's limited resources. The public sector being the main source of financial accumulation, Burundian bureaucracy is analysed in detail and is found to be a predatory bureaucracy which cares for its own interests. In order to avoid the recurrence of war in the country, it is recommended that Burundians, with the assistance of other fellow Africans and the international community, first of all break the cycle predation-rebellion-repression. Secondly, the paper recommends that a solution be found to the country's endless problem of impunity whereby criminals responsible for some of the most horrendous crimes have never been prosecuted. The paper remarks that the challenge of bringing peace to Burundi is tall, but that the current mediator, former South African President Nelson Mandela, is probably the best but last hope Burundians can count on to enjoy a peaceful future.
Road traffic injuries in Kenya: Magnitude, causes and status of intervention

Road traffic crashes exert a huge burden on Kenya’s economy and health care services. Current interventions are sporadic, uncoordinated and ineffective. This report offers a descriptive analysis of secondary data obtained from a variety of published literature and unpublished reports. Over three thousand people are killed annually on Kenyan roads. A fourfold increase in road fatalities has been experienced over the last 30 years. More than 75% of road traffic casualties are economically productive young adults. Pedestrians and passengers are the most vulnerable; they account for 80% of the deaths. Buses and matatus * Matatus are small-scale public transport vehicles in Kenya. These vehicles are important in public transport but they flagrantly violate traffic rules. are the vehicles most frequently involved in fatal crashes. Characteristics of crashes vary considerably between urban and rural settings: pedestrians are more likely to be killed in urban areas, whereas passengers are the majority killed on intercity highways that transverse rural settings. Road safety interventions have not made any measurable impact in reducing the numbers, rates and consequences of road crashes. Despite the marked increase in road crashes in Kenya, little effort has been made to develop and implement effective interventions. Impediments to road traffic injury prevention and control include ineffective coordination, inadequate resources and qualified personnel, and limited capacity to implement and monitor interventions. There is need to improve the collection and availability of accurate data to help in recognising traffic injury as a priority public health problem, raising awareness of policymakers on existing effective countermeasures and mobilizing resources for implementation. Establishment of an effective lead agency and development of stakeholder coalitions to address the problem are desirable.
Evaluation of VaR models’ forecasting performance: the case of oil markets

This paper highlights the importance of Value-at-Risk (VaR) methodology in managing oil market risks of three international crude oil rates (Brent, OPEP and WTI). Comparing between the conventional VaR models proposed by the literature (non-parametric models, hybrid models and conditional and unconditional parametric models), we point to the supremacy of conditional GARCH-type models (GARCH-T) or hybrid models (Filtered Historical Simulation). In contrast, the unconditional models or those based on the normality hypothesis are the least performing. In general, there is a tendency to prefer the conditional models as they allow integrating the dynamic nature of volatility and distributions flat tails.
Investigation into the frequency of Helicobacter pylori infection with carbon 14 urea breath test in patients with vitiligo.

BACKGROUND/AIM Vitiligo is a common, acquired depigmenting skin disorder. The relationship between Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection and autoimmune dermatological disease has been previously reported. However, the frequency of HP infection in patients with vitiligo has not been reported. In this study, we aimed to investigate the frequency of HP infection with the carbon 14 (C14) urea breath test (UBT) in patients with vitiligo. MATERIALS AND METHODS This study included 34 patients (18 males and 16 females) with vitiligo and 30 age- and sex-matched healthy controls. HP infection was diagnosed using the C14 UBT (Heliprobe). Statistical analysis was performed using SPSS 19. RESULTS The frequency of HP infection was 64.7% in the patient group and 33.3% in the control group according to the C14 UBT (chi- square test, P = 0.012). HP infection frequency is statistically significantly higher in patients with vitiligo. CONCLUSION To the best of our knowledge, this is the first investigation of the frequency of HP positivity in patients with vitiligo. To better understand the role of HP in vitiligo as an etiological or initiating factor, further experimental and clinical studies with a greater number of patients are needed.
Current Efforts and Proposals to Reduce Healthcare Costs in Serbia

Funding and Reimbursement of Health Care Services in Serbia: During the past few decades, health care decision makers have become aware of rapidly increasing health care expenditures in most northern hemisphere economies. National drug agencies worldwide, headed by the developed pharmaceuticals market, have accepted economic health assessments, acquired through clinical trials, as necessary evidence for marketing new drug approvals. The health system in Serbia is financed by one core fund, which consists primarily of compulsory medical insurance taxes on the employed population. Most inpatient care, which accounts for more than half of the expenditures, is provided by a contract between the Republic Health Insurance Institute and clinical facilities. According to purely economic criteria, most of the institutions responsible for providing public sector services in southeastern European middle-income economies show more than modest performance. The limited availability of reimbursement for various treatment options requires pharmacoeconomic evidence for decision making. The national Health Insurance Fund has created two boards for this purpose. The first board is the Central Experts Committee on Medicines, and the second board is the Pharmacoeconomics Committee. These boards decide on the inclusion of specific drugs in the positive reimbursement list based on evidence from foreign pharmacoeconomic assessments, mostly Cochrane reviews and NICE reports. The conclusions of these systematic reviews and meta-analyses of the comparative cost effectiveness of medicines are developed within the complex hierarchy of the United Kingdom’s NHS. Unfortunately, these conclusions are usually not directly transferable to the clinical setting of the western Balkans. ICER’s must be recalculated, and many equations must be adjusted. The main argument in favour of these adjustments is the substantially cheaper labour force, which is sufficient to move the assessment significantly in one direction. Another argument is the “willingness to pay” threshold. Its current value is assessed at €14,500 in Serbia and at €39,00 0 in Britain per life year gained. The statements of the aforementioned committees can significantly impact the local drug pricing process. Recently, some tertiary care hospitals, particularly the hospital in the city of Kragujevac, have imposed a mandatory internal procedure when introducing new drugs.
Will you follow the robot's advice?: the impact of robot types and task types on people's perception of a robot

Robots could be classified into an autonomous robot and a tele-operated robot according to the levels of autonomy. As a match between robot types and task types is important, we explored the impact of robot types and task types on social presence, trustworthiness, and willingness to follow the robot's advice in art appraising situation. We executed a 2(robot types: autonomous robot vs. tele-operated robot) X 2(task types: quantitative task vs. qualitative task) mixed-participants experiment (N=30). Participants perceived more social presence toward the tele-operated robot than the autonomous robot while the autonomous robot was perceived more trustworthy than the tele-operated robot. The robot types and the task types had an interaction effect on the perceived trustworthiness and the willingness to follow the advice. Implications for the appropriate design by the robot types and the task types regarding human-robot interaction are discussed.
Nonlinear consistent valuation of CCP cleared or CSA bilateral trades with initial margins under credit, funding and wrong-way risks

The introduction of Central Clearing Counterparties (CCPs) in most derivative transactions will dramatically change the landscape of derivatives pricing, hedging and risk management, and, according to the TABB Group, will lead to an overall liquidity impact of about USD 2 trillions. In this paper, we develop for the first time a comprehensive approach for pricing under CCP clearing, including variation and initial margins, gap credit risk and collateralization, showing concrete examples for interest rate swaps. This framework stems from our 2011 framework on credit, collateral and funding costs in Pallavicini et al. (Pallavicini, A., D. Perini and D. Brigo, 2011, Funding Valuation Adjustment: FVA consistent with CVA, DVA, WWR, Collateral, Netting and Re-hypothecation, arxiv.org, ssrn.com). Mathematically, the inclusion of asymmetric borrowing and lending rates in the hedge of a claim, and a replacement closeout at default, lead to nonlinearities showing up in claim dependent pricing measures, aggregation dependent prices, nonlinear Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) and Backward Stochastic Differential Equations (BSDEs). This still holds in presence of CCPs and CSA. We introduce a modeling approach that allows us to enforce rigorous separation of the interconnected nonlinear risks into different valuation adjustments where the key pricing nonlinearities are confined to a funding costs component that is analyzed through numerical schemes for BSDEs. We present a numerical case study for Interest Rate Swaps that highlights the relative size of the different valuation adjustments and the quantitative role of initial and variation margins, of liquidity bases, of credit risk, of the margin period of risk and of wrong-way risk correlations.
Financial Expectations, Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis*

We explore the determinants of individuals´ financial expectations using data from the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) 1991-2001. Our findings suggest that individuals´ financial predictions are influenced by both the life cycle and the business cycle. We also investigate the extent to which the accuracy of past financial expectations affects current financial expectations. Interestingly, only past financial optimism matters, regardless of the accuracy of the prediction. We also explore the relationship between financial realisations and expectations and we find that expectations tend to fall short of financial realisations. Finally, we investigate the relationship between financial expectations, savings and consumption. Our findings suggest that financial optimism is inversely associated with savings and that current financial expectations serve to predict future consumption.
Disparities in Cesarean Delivery Rates and Associated Adverse Neonatal Outcomes in New York City Hospitals

OBJECTIVE: To examine the primary cesarean delivery rates and associated neonatal outcomes by insurance status in public and private hospitals in New York City. METHODS: We accessed Vital statistics data on all births to women with Medicaid or private insurance from 1996 through 2003, compiling a total of 321,308 nulliparous women who delivered singleton neonates by either normal spontaneous vaginal delivery or primary cesarean delivery. Rates of primary cesarean delivery and adverse neonatal outcomes were examined by hospital type and insurance status while controlling for potential confounders. RESULTS: There were 51,682 and 269,626 women who delivered in public hospitals and private hospitals, respectively. The cesarean delivery rate of women with private insurance delivering in private hospitals was 30.4% compared with a cesarean rate of 21.2% in Medicaid patients delivering in public hospitals (adjusted odds ratio [OR] 1.57, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.53–1.63). The percent of infants born to women with private insurance and Medicaid delivering in private hospitals with a 5-minute Apgar score less than 7 was 0.6% and 0.8% compared with 1.0% of infants delivering in the public hospital system (adjusted OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.51– 0.68 and adjusted OR 0.73, 95% CI 0.65– 0.82). The neonatal intensive care unit admission rate was also lower in neonates born in private hospitals at 6.7% and 8.5% compared with a 12.8% admission rate in public hospitals (adjusted OR 0.48, 95% CI 0.46–0.51 and adjusted OR 0.59, 95% CI 0.57– 0.62 after controlling for mode of delivery). CONCLUSION: Even when controlling for confounders, there was an association between primary cesarean delivery and insurance status regardless of hospital type. There was also a higher risk of adverse neonatal outcomes in the public hospitals regardless of mode of delivery. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE: III
Testing the Unit Root Hypothesis When the Alternative is a Trend Break Stationary Process: An Application to Tourist Arrivals in Fiji

The unit root hypothesis owes much to the work of Dickey and Fuller and has gained momentum since the seminal contribution of Perron (1989), who introduced the idea of structural breaks in unit root tests. In a recent study Sen (2003), extending the work of Zivot and Andrews (1992), recommends the F-test statistic for a unit root in the presence of a structural change in the economy. The central aim of this paper is to apply the Sen test to tourist arrivals to Fiji. The idea behind this exercise is to identify the year of the structural break and, more importantly, to examine whether the break has had a permanent or temporary effect on tourist arrivals in Fiji. Among our key results, we find that visitor arrivals in Fiji from Australia, New Zealand and the USA are stationary, implying that shocks have a temporary effect.
Non-Resident Wine Tourist Markets

Summary This paper describes key travel traits of non-resident visitors to British Columbia's wine tourism destinations. It identifies Genera-list and Immersionist as being important segments of this market that merit particular attention in future destination management planning and marketing initiatives. It uses an importance-performance analysis framework to determine the key areas for management activity that need to be addressed in order to meet the travel product needs of each of these segments. The paper concludes by recommending a range of strategic initiatives that should be used by the wine industry and its tourism partners to elevate the appeal of BC wine destinations in the international marketplace. While specific to the
Numerical software algorithms for monitoring control processes and correcting health by synthesis of hybrid fuzzy rules of decision-making on the basis of changes in energetic characteristics of biologically active points

In contemporary medical practice, there is a growing interest in traditional oriental methods of reflexodiagnostics and reflexotherapy based upon teaching about the meridian energy balance of the body. In the present paper, new mathematical models are offered, which reflect the interaction between internal organs and biologically active points (BAPs) of meridian structures and make it possible to specify and analyse a wide range of diseases. Numerical software methods and algorithms are described for selecting BAPs and correcting health condition by acupuncture methods. The results show the best quality of decision-making is provided if the synthesis of fuzzy decision rules is carried out according to exploratory analysis intended for studying various features of data. The paper contains information about the way the prediction problem can be solved and how it is possible to deal with the need for early diagnosis of stomach diseases using the suggested software method and algorithms. Checking on testing sets with 100 persons for each class formed by highly-qualified experts showed that the diagnostic effectiveness of the solution exceeds 0.85. Such a result permits us to recommend the decision rules we have developed for practical application.
Fluoroquinolone-Containing Third-Line Regimen against Mycobacterium tuberculosis In Vivo

ABSTRACT The objective of the present study was to compare the activities of a third-line regimen recommended by the World Health Organization (WHO) and two derivatives of that regimen with the activity of the standard combination of isoniazid, rifampin, and pyrazinamide as a positive control against Mycobacterium tuberculosis in a murine model. The WHO regimen combines ofloxacin (OFX), ethionamide, amikacin, and pyrazinamide; in the two derivatives of this regimen, OFX was replaced by levofloxacin (LVX) or moxifloxacin (MXF). The four drugs, a fluoroquinolone (either OFX, LVX, or MXF), ethionamide, pyrazinamide, and amikacin, were administered for the first 2 months (initial phase); and two drugs, a fluoroquinolone (either OFX, LVX, or MXF) and ethionamide, were administered for the following 10 months (continuation phase). After 6 months of treatment, only the spleens and lungs of mice treated with the standard regimen became culture negative. From 9 months onward, all of the organs of mice treated with the MXF-containing third-line regimen were culture negative. The majority of organs from mice treated with the OFX-containing regimen continued to be culture positive, and the mean CFU counts remained unchanged for as long as 12 months. The results for mice treated with the LVX-containing regimen fell between those for the groups receiving the MXF- and OFX-containing regimens. In conclusion, the activity of the OFX-containing third-line regimen against M. tuberculosis was rather weak in vivo, whereas when OFX was replaced by MXF, 9 months of treatment with a modified third-line regimen displayed bactericidal activity comparable to that of 6 months of treatment with the standard regimen in mice. The MXF-containing third-line regimen seems to be a powerful alternative for the treatment of tuberculosis (TB) when isoniazid and rifampin cannot be used, which is the main feature of multidrug-resistant TB.
Banking instability in South East Asia: causes and cures

This article suggests that the currency crisis in South East Asia triggered off the present banking crisis. However, the banking crisis would not have happened if it had not been preceded by a deregulatory banking industry trend in the region during the previous decade. This trend allowed banks to invest in risky illiquid assets. Moreover, such investments were subsidised by deposit insurance funds. The IMF and BIS proposals to cure the banking instability in South East Asia are shown to be inadequate because they rely too much upon depositor and government monitoring rather than the need to constrain bank risk‐taking behaviour ex ante. This paper proposes a return to comprehensive banking regulation to prevent a reoccurrence of similar crises in the future.
THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN GDP, EXPORT AND INVESTMENT: CASE STUDY IRAN

This study compared the long-term and short-term relationship between GDP, export and investment during the years 1991-2008. Results show there exist a positive and significant long term relationship between investment and export with gross domestic production at 95% confidence level. But the relationship of investment and export is negative. Analysis of the vector error correction model for GDP indicates an error correction coefficient is negative which due to the high value of the GDP in the short run than long-term equilibrium value. In the short term, impact of investment and exports on GDP are positive. Effect of domestic production on investment is positive, but on export is negative. Key words: Export, Investment, Gross Domestic Production, Co integration, Error Correction.
Why Entrepreneurs Fail: How to Avoid the Traps

Would‐be entrepreneurs who start or acquire businesses, driven by the popular belief that executive competence can conquer all, are likely to be disappointed. Executive competence, while important, is often subordinate to the concept and capital utilization characteristics of the business in determining organizational outcomes. Proposes five guidelines for starting or acquiring a business which, if observed, will increase the chances of entrepreneurial success and corresponding wealth accumulation.
Strategic Debt Service

When firms experience financial distress, equity holders may act strategically, forcing concessions from debtholders and paying less than the originally contracted interest payments. This article incorporates strategic debt service in a standard, continuous time asset pricing model, developing simple closed-form expressions for debt and equity values. The authors find that strategic debt service can account for a substantial proportion of the premium on risky corporate debt. They analyze the efficiency implications of strategic debt service, showing that it can eliminate both direct bankruptcy costs and agency costs of debt. Copyright 1997 by American Finance Association.
On the Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment to Developing Countries: Is Africa Different?

This paper analyzes the determinants of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) to developing countries and examines why Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has been relatively unsuccessful in attracting FDI despite policy reform. The results indicate that the factors that drive FDI have a differential impact on FDI flows to SSA. Specifically, infrastructure development and a higher return on capital promote FDI to non-SSA countries. In contrast these factors have no effect on FDI to SSA. Openness to trade promotes FDI to both SSA and non-SSA countries, however, the marginal benefit from increased openness is less for SSA-suggesting that trade liberalization will generate more FDI to non-SSA countries than SSA countries. Another important finding is that there is an "adverse regional effect" for SSA: a country in SSA will receive less FDI by virtue of its geographical location. These results suggest that Africa is different!