Drought Hazard in Morocco

Drought hazard has been increasing in Morocco during the present century, because of the extension of cultivation into marginal low-rainfall areas and because of reduction of fallow. These processes have been caused by the effects of European colonization, population pressure, scarcity of viable new cropland, and other factors. Loss of food security has further increased Moroccan vulnerability to drought. Twice during the 1980s, drought-related rioting demonstrated the strong links among drought, food security, and political stability. GLOBAL warming threatens to increase the incidence and severity of drought in many parts of the developing world. Mexico, Central America, eastern Brazil, northern Argentina, northwestern Africa, western Arabia, southern Africa, the Horn of Africa, western Africa, and parts of eastern Asia will possibly experience declining rainfall, increasing evapotranspiration, and drier soils, which will make these areas more vulnerable to drought (WRI 1990; Houghton, Jenkins, and Ephraums 1990). Increasing drought will probably bring significant declines in agricultural productivity to many developing countries. Unfortunately, most of the vulnerable developing countries are already troubled by crucial imbalances between rapidly growing populations and existent constraints on food-production capabilities. Increasing drought has ominous implications for both food security and political stability in the developing world. To estimate the effect of global warming on developing countries, it is necessary to assess not only the probable magnitude of climate changes but also how they are likely to be filtered through different socio-environmental contexts. This article examines drought in the socio-environmental context of Morocco, a representative drought-prone developing country. Two principal arguments are advanced. First, contrary to prevailing tradition, drought should be viewed primarily as a socioeconomic phenomenon, not a physical one. Far from being merely a matter of unfavorable meteorological conditions, drought is essentially a question of their socioeconomic effects. As I will argue, drought as a socioeconomic phenomenon can occur even when meteorological conditions remain normal. Second, if the social and environmental context changes through time, vulnerability to drought alters accordingly (Mitchell, Devine, and Jagger 1989). Variations in population, technology, landuse, and other factors can either amplify or reduce the drought hazard in any area, independent of * Research for this article was supported by grants from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation Program on Peace and International Cooperation and from the Human Dimensions of Global Change Program, National Science Foundation. * DR. SWEARINGEN is an adjunct assistant professor of geography at Montana State University, Bozeman, Montana 59717. This content downloaded from 157.55. 39.10 on Mon, 08 Aug 2016 06:09:56 UTC All use subject to http://about.jstor. org/terms THE GEOGRAPHICAL REVIEW physical processes. The drought hazard in Morocco has been progressively increasing during most of the twentieth century, largely because of the effects of European colonization, population pressure, the scarcity of viable new cropland, agricultural intensification, and governmental policies. The same general process has probably been occurring in neighboring North African countries as well as in other large regions of the developing world (Glantz 1990; Swearingen forthcoming).