Socioeconomic factors that determine the phenomenon of migration in current Greece : a quantitative approach

This doctoral thesis commences with a meticulous examination on whether financial, social and institutional determinants associate with the migration performance in Europe and accordingly in Greece. Motivated by the intensity, the magnitude and the financial recession, this thesis presents three empirical chapters on the examination of the determinants that affect the phenomenon of migration. Prior to these three empirical studies a chapter introduces and defines all the variables used as well as the theoretical and methodological framework of the thesis. The first empirical chapter demonstrates a comprehensive sample of 15 European countries from 1990 – 2012, which have been divided into 3 groups (Weak-EMU, Strong-EMU and Non-EMU countries) in order to investigate the behaviour of each group during these periods. It follows a quantitative analysis of the economic and social determinants on migration, in order to comprehend their relationship with the phenomenon. The chapter concludes with the discussion of our results with an analytical review of the selected variables upon migration. Results reveal that Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece and Spain are countries that are more exposed to the financial crisis, something that consequently affects negatively the behaviour of each employed economic variable. Additionally, results detect that one significant outcome is that the GDP growth rate, inflation and the imports of goods are related to migration, while on the other hand the 10-year government bond yield is not affiliated to the phenomenon. The second empirical chapter covers the financial, social and institutional determinants that motivate Greek nationals to leave their country and emigrate to wealthier destinations during the recent financial crisis. First, it reviews the theoretical explanations for the efficiency of the factors on migration. It then provides a survey on the relevant empirical studies and subsequently an analysis of the variables, which have a significant impact on labour migration. Based on the theories presented, the study develops a model to explain how financial, social and institutional factors are correlated with the economic downturn and lead to adverse financial and social shocks such as massive migration outflows of Greek nationals. More precisely, the second chapter indicates that Greece has been very exposed to the financial crisis, thus had a strong impact on the decision of Greek natives to emigrate. As conditions deteriorate, Greece was in a severe financial situation due to the financial crisis and was dependent on the monetary policy support, something that emerged the country to experience major and drastic changes on its social cohesion. Further, we can identify, that debt to GDP, exports of goods, ln of imports of goods, long term unemployment and population growth are positively related to emigration from Greece, while on the other hand cash surplus, foreign direct investment and bank capital are negatively associated to the phenomenon. Finally, we employed advanced techniques to model the factors that motivate the existing regular immigrants in Greece to abandon the country and return to their own during the economic crisis period (return-migration). The findings reveal details on the imbalances of the economic, social and political framework of Greece that consequently affected negatively the growth rate of the country and created a fragile economy with high rates of unemployment and inflation. Hence, it compares the economic, social and institutional factors, which are related to the literature of return migration. According to the estimated results, the phenomenon of return migration is neither related in a predetermined way with unemployment rates nor poverty levels, but with tax revenue, corruption and government debt. Consequently, this situation had a strong negative impact in the behaviour of each financial, social and institutional determinant, with immediate result to the migrant families who pursue an improved quality of life back to their home country.