Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Regime Shifts: Implications for Dynamic Strategies (corrected)

Regime shifts present significant challenges for investors because they cause performance to depart significantly from the ranges implied by long-term averages of means and covariances. But regime shifts also present opportunities for gain. The authors show how to apply Markov-switching models to forecast regimes in market turbulence, inflation, and economic growth. They found that a dynamic process outperformed static asset allocation in backtests, especially for investors who seek to avoid large losses. Investors have long recognized that economic conditions frequently undergo regime shifts. The economy often oscillates between a steady, low-volatility state characterized by economic growth and a panic-driven, high-volatility state characterized by economic contraction. These regime shifts present significant challenges for risk management and portfolio construction. Many authors have used Markov-switching models to “fit” a dataset and uncover evidence of regimes in sample, but far fewer authors have attempted out-of-sample forecasting. The goal of our research was to build regime-dependent investment strategies and backtest their performance out of sample. In contrast to previous studies, we did not model regimes directly on asset returns nor did we rely on a specific asset-pricing model. Instead, we forecasted regimes in the important drivers of asset returns and then reallocated assets accordingly. When dealing with regime shifts, we expect Markov-switching models to perform better than simple data partitions based on thresholds. Arbitrary thresholds give false signals because they fail to capture the persistence in regimes and changing volatilities. Markov-switching models are designed to capture these features of the data. We built a simple Markov-switching model to identify and forecast regimes characterized by market turbulence, inflation, and economic growth. Our results revealed the presence of a “normal” and an “event” regime in each series. The event regimes are characterized by more challenging investment conditions, on average, and by greater volatility in those conditions. Both the normal and event regimes exhibited meaningful persistence. Next, we turned to out-of-sample forecasting and backtesting. First, we tested the performance of the regime-switching approach for tactical asset allocation. We used regime forecasts to scale exposure to specific risk premiums over time and found that a dynamic process outperformed constant exposures. We then applied the same methodology to dynamic asset allocation across stocks, bonds, and cash. Again, we found that a dynamic process outperformed static asset allocation, especially for investors who seek to avoid large losses. Authors’ Note: Sébastien Page, CFA, worked on this article while at State Street Global Markets.
Antimicrobial interventions for the management of diabetic foot infections

Foot infections are the most common cause of hospitalisations and amputations in diabetic patients. They occur after skin ulcers or trauma in patients with peripheral neuropathy, sometimes together with vascular disease. Narrow-spectrum antibiotic agents should be prescribed for minor recent infections, and broader-spectrum agents for severe or chronic infections. When indicated, antibiotic therapy should be started early and be tailored to the individual patient. Diabetic foot osteomyelitis is a particularly controversial condition, especially regarding the need for reliable cultures, the type and duration of treatment, and the role of surgery. Recent data indicates that a medical approach might be effective and could reduce foot amputations among diabetic patients. Interdisciplinary cooperation with infectious disease specialists and orthopaedic surgeons should be considered in such situations.
USM Chief Executives: Do They Fit the Entrepreneurial Stereotype?

Dr Sturat Slatter is director of the institute of small business Mangement at London business School, England, Roy Ransley wa midland Bank Fellow at London, Business School through 1984-85.Elizabeth Woods isa Ph.D. student and research assistant at LBS. The development of the unlisted securities market (USM) in the United Kingdom has identified a small group of successful chief executive. who have become role models for both existing and aspiring enterprenuer. This paper presetns the result of a study undertaken to see if the USM chief executives fit th exisiting enterpreneural sterotypes. The paper review the various factors that influence the enterpreneurial character and identifies four enterpreneruial steretypes in the mangament literature. The profileof the USM chief executives are then analysed to see how well theri skills, values, abilities and roles fit with theri enviornment. The study shows that the USM chief executives fit quite well into the existing stereotype of an oppertunitstic enterpreneurs, suggested by Smith(1967),although theri attitudes towards ownership and internal mangerial control may be different from those identified in some earlier studies(weinshall, 1983).
Multicellular Compartmentation of Catharanthus roseus Alkaloid Biosynthesis Predicts Intercellular Translocation of a Pathway Intermediate

In situ RNA hybridization and immunocytochemistry were used to establish the cellular distribution of monoterpenoid indole alkaloid biosynthesis in Madagascar periwinkle (Catharanthus roseus). Tryptophan decarboxylase (TDC) and strictosidine synthase (STR1), which are involved in the biosynthesis of the central intermediate strictosidine, and desacetoxyvindoline 4-hydroxylase (D4H) and deacetylvindoline 4-O-acetyltransferase (DAT), which are involved in the terminal steps of vindoline biosynthesis, were localized. tdc and str1 mRNAs were present in the epidermis of stems, leaves, and flower buds, whereas they appeared in most protoderm and cortical cells around the apical meristem of root tips. In marked contrast, d4h and dat mRNAs were associated with the laticifer and idioblast cells of leaves, stems, and flower buds. Immunocytochemical localization for TDC, D4H, and DAT proteins confirmed the differential localization of early and late stages of vindoline biosynthesis. Therefore, we concluded that the elaboration of the major leaf alkaloids involves the participation of at least two cell types and requires the intercellular translocation of a pathway intermediate. A basipetal gradient of expression in maturing leaves also was shown for all four genes by in situ RNA hybridization studies and by complementary studies with dissected leaves, suggesting that expression of the vindoline pathway occurs transiently during early leaf development. These results partially explain why attempts to produce vindoline by cell culture technology have failed.
Psychopharmacology of imidazoline and alpha 2-adrenergic receptors: implications for depression.

The literature on alpha 2-adrenoceptors in depression is replete with seemingly contradictory findings, including reports of both hypersensitive and hyposensitive alterations. Now, with the discovery of nonadrenergic imidazoline receptors (I receptors) and an endogenous I receptor ligand (agmatine), new light is being shed on this controversy. Specifically, those studies that had utilized allegedly "alpha 2-selective" imidazoline radioligands, i.e., 3H-clonidine, could be reinterpreted in terms of increased I receptors in depression. Although the molecular identity of the I1 binding site remains unknown, an I2 receptive site has been reported to be encoded by monoamine oxidase genes (both MAO-A and MAO-B), suggesting a novel explanation for the antidepressant efficacy of idazoxan, a prototypic I2 ligand. Platelet I1 binding sites are also reported to be elevated in patients with unipolar depression and are lowered by antidepressant treatments. Furthermore, clonidine challenge and animal studies of the behavioral effects of imidazolines may be reinterpreted to support a role for I1 sites in the central control of behavior. A hypothesis for depletion of brain clonidine-displacing substance (CDS) in depression is presented. Lowered concentrations of CDS could account for an elevation of I receptors, via compensatory upregulation. Our model offers an explanation for a number of previously discrepant observations as well as testable hypotheses for the study of imidazoline receptors in depression.
The Development of a University Foodservice Quality Survey Instrument

Abstract Cross-cultural and service quality research supports the theory that there is a difference in customer service expectations and perceptions as related to cultural orientation from a variety of service settings; however, a domain that has yet to be explored is culture's impact on service quality perceptions in university foodservices. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to develop a survey instrument of campus dining facilities that measures service quality perceptions experienced by international students. Input was collected through focus groups with international students enrolled at The University of Southern Mississippi's English Learning Institute (ELI). The instrument was refined using input from a panel of eight foodservice and cross-cultural industry experts. During the instrument's pilot test, two cognitive interviewing techniques were used to assess content validity as well as cognitive validity and equivalency. The final survey was completed by a total of 141 of the 342 international students. A six-factor solution, based on 31 items, was created that accounted for 52% of the variance: Service and Sanitation (a= .866), Food Dislikes (a= .713), Selection and Taste (a= .738), Drinks (a= .760), Value (a= .731), and Crowding (a= .693).
Time-Change Risks and the Aggregate Stock Market Behavior

This paper investigates how the investors responses to the evolution of uncertainty affect equilibrium asset returns. I develop a discrete-time real endowment economy where the aggregate economic uncertainty, as detected by a time-change for the endowment process, alters the perceived utility from consumption and drives the state of the economy. The equilibrium pricing kernel reflects both the return on investments - a supply-side effect, as in the standard framework - and the agents' responses - a demand-side effect - which evolve with the arrival of news. Equilibria with both unpredictable and persistent impact of uncertainty are fully characterized: the pricing of supply-side and demand-side time-change risks is discussed. The model calibration shows that many features of financial returns are well described consistently with a low correlation of returns with consumption growth and a low and constant risk aversion. The model captures a high and countercyclical equity premium and Sharpe ratio, a high and clustered volatility, a rich time-variation of returns and a low and little volatile risk-free rate. I empirically verify the designed mechanism for intertemporal decisions by relating the model state-variable to the consumption-wealth ratio.
Sun exposure and sun-protection behaviors and attitudes among U.S. youth, 11 to 18 years of age.

BACKGROUND Adolescence is a high-risk period for the development of melanoma and nonmelanocytic skin cancers later in life. This study examines the prevalence and correlates of sun-protection practices among U.S. youth. METHODS During July-October, 1998, a national, population-based telephone survey was conducted (N = 1,192 paired interviews of youth and their parents). Weighted prevalence and adjusted prevalence odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were estimated. Multiple logistic regression analyses examined associations between sociodemographics, attitudes, and other modifiable correlates to specific behaviors. RESULTS Routinely practiced sun-protection behaviors among youth on sunny days were wearing sunglasses (32%) or long pants (21%), staying in the shade (22%), and applying sunscreen (31%). Fifty-eight percent used a sunscreen with SPF > or =15 when at the beach or pool. Age, sex, and sun sensitivity were associated with substantial variation in some sun-protection behaviors. Factors associated with specific sun-protection behaviors included a lower appeal to tanning, a higher perceived benefit of sun protection, and information from family and friends about sun protection. CONCLUSION Effective sun protection is practiced by less than one-third of U.S. youth. This baseline survey will help to monitor progress in skin cancer prevention in this critical age group in the future.
Risk factors for abomasal displacement in dairy cows.

OBJECTIVE To determine whether various periparturient events or 305-day milk production during the previous lactation period were associated with abomasal displacement in dairy cows. DESIGN Retrospective, case-control study. ANIMALS 75 pairs of case and control cows from 3 university-owned and 3 commercial dairy herds. PROCEDURE Cows with abomasal displacement were matched with control cows on the basis of herd of origin, breed, age, and calving date. Frequency of specific periparturient events during the period from 2 weeks prior to parturition to diagnosis of abomasal displacement, as well as milk production during the preceding lactation period, were compared between case and control cows. RESULTS Multivariate analyses indicated that case cows were significantly more likely to have had retained placenta, ketosis, a stillborn calf, metritis, twins, or parturient paresis than were control cows. Dystocia, mastitis, and milk production during the previous lactation period were not associated with abomasal displacement. CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS Results indicated that a variety of periparturient events were associated with development of abomasal displacement among dairy cows.
Income after job loss: the role of the family and the welfare state

That displaced workers suffer long-lasting earnings losses is a stylized fact, raising the question whether these losses are replaced by other means. For married men, increased labour supply by the wife may be one way. Another possibility is that the public welfare system offsets the same losses. I used a Swedish longitudinal data set containing married couples where the husband was either employed or made redundant in 1987 by an establishment closure. There was no evidence that husbands’ job loss positively affected wives’ annual earnings. Although husbands’ utilization of unemployment insurance increased significantly, government transfers including also sickness insurance, disability insurance and means-tested social benefits, did not fully replace husbands’ long-run earnings losses. Hence, displaced workers seem to suffer also from long-lasting losses in family income, which in many respects is a better measure of economic welfare than individual earnings or wages.
Depersonalization Disorder: A Functional Neuroanatomical Perspective

Clinical reports of depersonalization suggest that attenuated emotional experience is a central feature of the condition. Patients typically complain of emotional numbness and some patients ascribe their feelings of unreality to a lack of affective "colouring" in things perceived. Recent neuroimaging and psychophysiological studies support these assumptions as they show both attenuated autonomic responses in depersonalization, and decreased activity within neural regions important for the generation of affective responses to emotive stimuli. Furthermore, findings from neuroimaging studies indicate increased prefrontal cortical activity in depersonalised patients, particularly within regions associated with contextualization and appraisal of emotionally-salient information rather than mood induction per se. Taken together, these finding suggest that symptoms of depersonalization, and in particular emotional numbing, may be related to a reversal of normal patterns of autonomic and neural response to emotive stimuli.
Development of New Rabbit Monoclonal Antibody to Estrogen Receptor: Immunohistochemical Assessment on Formalin-Fixed, Paraffin-Embedded Tissue Sections

Evaluation of estrogen and progesterone receptors in breast cancer is widely used for the prediction of the response to endocrine therapy and as a biologic parameter closely related to disease prognosis. Immunohistochemistry is considered a specific, sensitive, and economic method for the determination of estrogen receptor/progesterone receptor status. The authors developed the first rabbit antiestrogen receptor monoclonal antibody (clone SP1) used in immunohistochemistry on formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue sections especially from breast carcinomas. This new antibody, compared with currently available antiestrogen receptor antibodies, has important advantages, including its reactivity even without heat-based antigen retrieval of fixed, embedded tissue sections in immunohistochemistry, and the predominance of nuclear immunostaining with only a very low cytoplasmic signal. A comparative study of immunohistochemistry on 61 histologic specimens from breast cancer cases showed that SP1 yields the same results as the well-known, standardized mouse monoclonal antibody to estrogen receptor (clone 1D5). Antibody affinity of SP1 is 8 times higher than that of 1D5. Thus, SP1 may prove of great value in the assessment of estrogen receptor status in human breast cancer.
‘Jobs for the Boys’? Patterns of Party Patronage in Post-Communist Europe

This article examines the patterns of party patronage in post-communist Europe and provides an explanation for the varying practices observed by stressing the institutional legacies of the past. Drawing on the distinction between different types of communist regimes, it formulates three hypotheses concerning the extent, underlying motivations and intra-party control of patronage which guide the empirical analysis. It then clarifies the key concepts and discusses the methodology and data used in the article. Further, the three hypotheses are probed with data collected in a large expert survey in Bulgaria, Hungary and the Czech Republic. In accordance with the hypotheses, these three countries are found to differ in the pervasiveness of patronage within the state institutions, in the reasons why party politicians engage in patronage practices and, to a lesser degree, in the intra-party mechanisms of controlling and distributing patronage. It is argued that this variation can be, at least partially, attributed to the nature of the communist regimes in the countries under study.
Product and geographic scope changes of multinational enterprises in response to international competition

What happens when multinational enterprises (MNEs) face competition in their own home market from imports or through foreign direct investment (FDI)? We provide a differentiated assessment of the influence of these two types of foreign competition on the product and geographic scope of MNEs. We apply the awareness–motivation–capability framework to international business (IB), hypothesizing that an increase or decrease in scope depends on the motivation and ability of an incumbent firm to respond to an incursion into its home market, and on the objectives and commitment of the firm that is entering that market. We assessed the scope changes of 407 large US firms between 1987 and 2003, and found that increasing imports led to scope reduction, while increasing FDI had the opposite effect. Our analysis of 95 large German firms for the same period led to similar, but somewhat less consistent, results.
Water availability and use across the Challenge Program on Water and Food (CPWF) basins

This paper analyses water availability and use within and between the Challenge Program on Water and Food basins. It describes the main features of water demand and supply in the basins and indicates where there are deficits and opportunities for development of water resources. A typology of basin water resources status uses a range of global spatial datasets. The main outcomes of basin activities on water availability are identified. Interbasin assessment of water availability is very challenging for such very large basins, due in large part to difficulties in collecting and integrating local data sets.
Promoting of Investment in Africa

Abstract: This paper examines the trend, constraints, promotion, and prospects of investment – domestic investment, foreign direct investment, and private portfolio investment – in Africa. After identifying the importance of investment in Africa's economic development, it was shown that all forms of investment are low in Africa and hence inadequate for the attainment of the MDGs and poverty reduction in the continent. The constraining factors include: low resources mobilization; high degree of uncertainty; poor governance, corruption, and low human capital development; unfavorable regulatory environment and poor infrastructure, small individual country sizes; high dependence on primary commodities exports and increased competition; poor image abroad; shortage of foreign exchange and the burden of huge domestic and external debt; and undeveloped capital markets, their high volatility, and home bias by foreign investors. The paper recommends that successful promotion of both domestic, foreign direct and portfolio investment in Africa will require actions and measures at the national, regional, and international levels. It concludes that the prospects are bright. New and attractive investment opportunities are emerging in infrastructure, particularly as most African countries now encourage public/private partnerships for investments in this sector. In addition to privatization, renewed interest within Africa in undertaking regionally based projects and joint exploitation of natural resources is creating other investment opportunities. Apart from the fact that investment in Africa yields the highest returns, investment risk in the continent is declining. In addition, much progress has been made in recent years to improve the investment climate in Africa. All this is of course is not to deny that obstacles do remain hence economic reforms to enhance domestic investment would need to be complemented by measures to attract increased foreign capital. Critical in such endeavors must be efforts to improve governance in some countries as well as to eliminate socio-political violence in others and development of domestic capital markets, while government institutions must be modernized and upgraded.
Tourism Sages Prognosticate The Next 40 Years of Tourism Industry

Abstract A panel of 22 individuals, each with an average of 51 years of professional experience in the tourism industries, was asked to draw on their extensive experience and make predictions about issues that may have an impact on tourism in 40 years. The panel participants, or tourism ‘sages’, ranged in age from 73 years to 86 years. A three-round online Delphi survey was used to collect data from the participants, which was used to make forecasts about the future of tourism. The foundations of future tourism success will be consumer-focused technology, excellent service, and proactive tourism policy designed to meet the demands of a more diverse travelling public. Tourism managers in the future will be able to capitalize on new demand brought about by social changes, such as increased personal wealth, increased lifespan, and less oppressive government regimes that allow more people to travel more freely. Contrary to other tourism futures research, this study found respondents to be less concerned about the natural environment and traveller safety, but more concerned about competing based on quality tourism product, experience, and service.