Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
TOURISM DEMAND MODELLING FORECASTING. MODERN ECONOMETRIC APPROACHES

Preface. Introduction to Tourism Demand Analysis. Introduction. Determinants of tourism demand. Functional form and demand elasticities. Summary. Traditional Methodology of Tourism Demand Modelling. Introduction. Traditional methodology of tourism demand modelling. Failure of the traditional approach to tourism demand modelling. General-to-Specific Modelling. Introduction. General-to-specific modelling. Tests of restrictions on regression parameters. Diagnostic checking. Model selection. Worked example. Cointegration. Spurious regression. The concept of cointegration. Test for order of integration. Test for Cointegration. Error Correction Model. Cointegration and error correction mechanism. Estimating the ECM. Worked example. Vector Autoregression (VAR) and Cointegration. Introduction. Basics of VAR analysis. Impulse response analysis. Forecasting with VAR and error variance decomposition. Testing for Granger causality and exogeneity. An example of VAR modelling. VAR modelling and cointegration. Time Varying Parameter Modelling. Introduction. Are tourism demand elasticities constant over time? The TVP model and Kalman filter. A worked example. Summary and conclusions. Panel Data Analysis. Introduction. Model specification and estimation. An empirical study of a tourism demand model based on the panel data approach. Summary and conclusions. Evaluation of Forecasting Performance. Introduction. Measures of forecasting accuracy. Forecasting evaluation of different models. Concluding remarks. References. Author index. Subject index.
An optimal capacity allocation scheme for the wind-PV hybrid power system based on probabilistic production simulation

In this paper, a probabilistic production simulation (PPS) based on the equivalent energy and frequency function method is proposed to analyze the power supply reliability and the production cost of a wind-photovoltaic (PV) hybrid generation system. Compared with the wind power generation system that has the same installed capacity, the wind-PV hybrid generation system increases the value loss of load probability (LOLP) and expected energy not supplied (EENS), but reduces the volatility of the output and frequency of generator start-stop of unit capacity (FGSUC) due to the complementary nature between wind and solar energy. So the production cost can be reduced. Simultaneously, the optimization method of the windsolar hybrid generation system capacity is proposed, which target is to achieve a minimum production cost. The case studies has been carried out on an EPRI 36-bus system, and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Costs and Returns of Yam/Maize Production in Bosso Local Government, Niger State, Nigeria

In Nigeria, yam is the most important stable food crop while maize is the third most important cereal crop. However, small scale farmers do not always realize appreciable net returns from their combined production. Therefore, this study examined the costs and returns of yam/maize (mixed cropping) production in Bosso Local Government Area, Niger State. Primary data were obtained by multistage sampling techniques from the small scale farmers using structured questionnaires administered to eighty farmers. Descriptive statistic and gross margin analysis were used to analyse the data. The result showed that yam/maize farmers were of the active age of 43 years, majority were literate and experienced with average family size of 12 persons. Further findings showed that a typical yam/maize farmer incurred a total cost of N34,333.41/ha, realized a gross income of N 234,582.50/ha and a profit of N200,249.09/ha in the production year. This implies that yam/maize cropping enterprise is a viable venture since the profit value is positive and large in magnitude. Cost of fertilizer constitutes about 42% of total variable cost. It was recommended that inputs especially fertilizer need to be made available to farmers at a reduced cost. Key words : yam/maize, costs and returns, gross margin
Understanding Subjectivities in the Regulation of Local Water Services: A Q-Methodology Study of Elected Public Officers in Italy

In sub-national governments, elected public officers can exercise considerable influence on the regulation of local water services, in such ways as, for example, contributing to the design of local regulatory institutions, to the formulation of tariff rules, and to the supervision of water firms. Relatively little we know, however, about how elected public officers think about the regulation of local water services. This Q methodology study provides some evidence of the variety of opinions held on how local water services are delivered, how well they perform, and how they should be regulated among elected public officers in local governments in Italy. The study shows that the policy discourse on water regulation in Italy is highly fragmented into alternative and partially conflicting views. These findings bear some relevance for better understanding sources of stability and change of water regulatory regimes at the local level.
V‐Goods and the Role of the Urban Informal Sector in Development

This paper analyzes the role of the urban informal sector in a developing country in relation to the performance of agriculture and other rural activities on the one hand and that of urban formal sector activities on the other. It decomposes the sectors into traditional and modernizing components traceable to production and consumption linkages with the rest of the economy as well as the character of government interventions over time. The paper contrasts success cases a la Taiwan in which the overall size of the urban informal sector remains modest the modernizing sub-sector grows in relative importance and the end of overall labor surplus is reached rather early with non-success cases a la the Philippines in which rapid rural-urban migration enhances the overall size of the urban informal sector the traditional sub-sector grows relatively and the end of the labor surplus condition is substantially delayed. (authors)
Research output of Australian universities

Research plays an important role in underpinning a country's economic and social life. Universities are at the centre of the research and human capital generating process. The aim of this paper is to explore the links between research output, research income, academic and non‐academic labour and some of the characteristics of Australian universities. The results indicate that research income, academic staff and postgraduates are all positively associated with research output. There are noticeable differences across different types of universities, with the newer universities lagging in research performance.
Probabilistic schedulability tests for uniprocessor fixed-priority scheduling under soft errors

Due to rising integrations, low voltage operations, and environmental influences such as electromagnetic interference and radiation, transient faults may cause soft errors and corrupt the execution state. Such soft errors can be recovered by applying fault-tolerant techniques. Therefore, the execution time of a job of a sporadic/periodic task may differ, depending upon the occurrence of soft errors and the applied error detection and recovery mechanisms. We model a periodic/sporadic real-time task under such a scenario by using two different worst-case execution times (WCETs), in which one is with the occurrence of soft errors and another is not. Based on a probabilistic soft-error model, the WCETs are hence with different probabilities. In this paper, we present efficient probabilistic schedulability tests that can be applied to verify the schedulability based on probabilistic arguments under fixed-priority scheduling on a uniprocessor system. We demonstrate how the Chernoff bounds can be used to calculate the task workloads based on their probabilistic WCETs. In addition, we further consider how to calculate the probability of `-consecutive deadline misses of a task. The pessimism and the efficiency of our approaches are evaluated against the tighter and approximated convolution-based approaches, by running extensive evaluations under different soft-error rates. The evaluation results show that our approaches are effective to derive the probability of deadline misses and efficient with respect to the needed calculation time.
Scale out for large minibatch SGD: Residual network training on ImageNet-1K with improved accuracy and reduced time to train

For the past 5 years, the ILSVRC competition and the ImageNet dataset have attracted a lot of interest from the Computer Vision community, allowing for state-of-the-art accuracy to grow tremendously. This should be credited to the use of deep artificial neural network designs. As these became more complex, the storage, bandwidth, and compute requirements increased. This means that with a non-distributed approach, even when using the most high-density server available, the training process may take weeks, making it prohibitive. Furthermore, as datasets grow, the representation learning potential of deep networks grows as well by using more complex models. This synchronicity triggers a sharp increase in the computational requirements and motivates us to explore the scaling behaviour on petaflop scale supercomputers. In this paper we will describe the challenges and novel solutions needed in order to train ResNet-50 in this large scale environment. We demonstrate above 90\% scaling efficiency and a training time of 28 minutes using up to 104K x86 cores. This is supported by software tools from Intel's ecosystem. Moreover, we show that with regular 90 - 120 epoch train runs we can achieve a top-1 accuracy as high as 77\% for the unmodified ResNet-50 topology. We also introduce the novel Collapsed Ensemble (CE) technique that allows us to obtain a 77.5\% top-1 accuracy, similar to that of a ResNet-152, while training a unmodified ResNet-50 topology for the same fixed training budget. All ResNet-50 models as well as the scripts needed to replicate them will be posted shortly.
Social Security and Retirement Decisions

One of the most striking features of the postwar U.S. economy has been the rapid decrease in the labor force participation of the elderly at a time when the health of this group has been improving. In spite of this, previous research, based on retrospective interviews with the retired population, usually concludes that poor health accounts for the overwhelming majority of retirements. The current results suggest that nothing could be further from the truth. Using data from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we follow a cohort of white married males through their sixties to estimate a model of retirement behavior. Using several definitions of retirement suggested in the literature, the results suggest that the two key policy parameters of the social security system â€" the income guarantee and the implicit tax on earnings â€" exert an enormous influence on retirement decisions. For example, our results suggest that a decrease in the implicit tax rate on earnings from one-half to one-third would reduce the annual probability of retirement by almost sixty percent! Applying the coefficient estimates to time series data on the labor force participation of the elderly implies that the social security sys-tem has been the major factor in the explosion in earlier retirement.
Clinical global assessment of nutritional status as predictor of mortality in chronic kidney disease patients

Background The value of subjective global assessment (SGA) as nutritional assessor of protein-energy wasting (PEWSGA) in chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients depends on its mortality predictive capacity. We investigated associations of PEWSGA with markers of nutritional status and all-cause mortality in CKD patients. Methods In 1031 (732 CKD1-5 non-dialysis and 299 dialysis) patients, SGA and body (BMI), lean (LBMI) and fat (FBMI) body mass indices, % handgrip strength (% HGS), serum albumin, and high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) were examined at baseline. The five-year all-cause mortality predictive strength of baseline PEWSGA and during follow-up were investigated. Results PEWSGA was present in 2% of CKD1-2, 16% of CKD3-4, 31% of CKD5 non-dialysis and 44% of dialysis patients. Patients with PEWSGA (n = 320; 31%) had higher hsCRP and lower BMI, LBMI, FBMI, %HGS and serum albumin. But, using receiver operating characteristics-derived cutoffs, these markers could not classify (by kappa statistic) or explain variations of (by multinomial logistic regression analysis) presence of PEWSGA. In generalized linear models, SGA independently predicted mortality after adjustments of multiple confounders (RR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.11–1.23). Among 323 CKD5 patients who were re-assessed after median 12.6 months, 222 (69%) remained well-nourished, 37 (11%) developed PEWSGA de novo, 40 (12%) improved while 24 (8%) remained with PEWSGA. The latter independently predicted mortality (RR: 1.29; 95% CI: 1.13–1.46). Conclusions SGA, a valid assessor of nutritional status, is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality both in CKD non-dialysis and dialysis patients that outperforms non-composite nutritional markers as prognosticator.
Earnings Variability and Disclosure of R&D: Evidence from Press Releases

This study explores press releases in the pharmaceutical industry to expand our understanding of how investments in R&D outlays influence uncertainty of future earnings. The findings make two contributions to the literature. First, they provide evidence that equal investments in different R&D ventures are associated with differential variability of future earnings. This result suggests that non-financial information contained in press releases captures attributes of firm-specific R&D investments that are not revealed through R&D expenditures reported in financial statements. Second, prior studies have indicated that investments in pharmaceutical R&D are associated with the highest variability of future earnings among all industries. The results, however, suggest that for a large class of low-risk pharmaceutical R&D investments, the relative variability of future earnings is low and similar to that generated by capital expenditures. The findings hold when we control for endogeneity in voluntary disclosure of press releases.
Labor-Management Cooperation: Antecedents and Impact on Organizational Performance

This study examines the antecedents and outcomes of labor-management cooperation. Data were drawn from 305 branches of a large unionized Australian-based multinational banking organization. The authors find that perceptions of a cooperative labor relations climate were positively influenced by procedural justice, the union's willingness to adopt an integrative approach to bargaining, and management's willingness to share information freely with the union. The findings also indicate that a cooperative labor-management relationship contributed to higher productivity and improved customer service. In addition, organizational commitment was found to have a positive effect on branch-level productivity and customer service, and union loyalty was associated with lower absenteeism.
Relative Blood‐brain Barrier Permeabilities of the Cholecystokinin Receptor Antagonists Devazepide and A‐65186 in Rats

The blood‐brain barrier permeabilities of the type‐A cholecystokinin receptor antagonists devazepide and A‐65186 (Nα‐3‐quinolinoyl‐D‐Glu‐N,N‐dipentylamide) have been compared with those of the reference compounds iodoantipyrine, which readily penetrates the blood‐brain barrier, and mannitol, which does not.
Reciprocal effects of rab7 deletion in activated and neglected T cells

Mouse models lacking proteins essential for autophagosome formation have demonstrated that autophagy plays a critical role in T cell development and activation. To better understand the function of autophagy in quiescent and activated lymphocytes, we have generated a mouse deficient in rab7 selectively in T cells and compared the effects of blocking autophagy at an early (atg5−/−) or late (rab7−/−) stage on T cell biology. rab7−/− murine embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) and T cells generated from these mice exhibit a profound block in autophagosome degradation and are as sensitive as atg5−/− cells to extracellular nutrient limitation. Rab7flox/floxCD4-Cre+ mice lacking the RAB7 protein in both CD4 and CD8 T cells had reduced numbers of peripheral T cells, but this defect was not as severe as in Atg5flox/floxCD4-Cre+ mice despite efficient rab7 deletion and inhibition of autophagic flux. This difference may stem from the reduced ROS generation and enhanced survival of rab7−/− T cells compared with wild-type and atg5−/− T cells in the absence of cytokine stimulation. rab7−/− and atg5−/− T cells exhibited similar defects in proliferation both following antibody-mediated T cell receptor (TCR) cross-linking and using a more physiologic activation protocol, allogeneic stimulation. Interestingly, autophagy was not required to provide building blocks for the upregulation of nutrient transporter proteins immediately following activation. Together, these studies suggest that autophagosome degradation is required for the survival of activated T cells, but that loss of rab7 is better tolerated in naïve T cells than the loss of atg5.
Detailed analysis of the oligodendrocyte myelin glycoprotein gene in four patients with neurofibromatosis 1 and primary progressive multiple sclerosis

Neurofibromatosis 1 (NF1) is a common autosomal disorder with a wide range of neurological manifestations. The case histories of five patients, including two siblings, are reported who have both neurofibromatosis 1 and primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS). A further patient with both NF1 and PPMS has since been identified. More recently, a systematic clinical review of 138 unselected adult patients with NF1 identified one patient with a slowly progressive spastic paraparesis and multiple high signal hyperintensities on T2 weighted MRI. Molecular genetic studies suggest a mechanism by which the clinical association of progressive white matter disease and NF1 might arise. The gene for NF1 is located on chromosome 17q, spans 350 kb of genomic DNA, and contains 60 exons. The gene for oligodendrocyte myelin glycoprotein (OMgp) is embedded within intron 27b of the NF1 gene. OMgp is a membrane glycoprotein that appears in the human CNS at the time of myelination. It can be detected immunohistochemically on CNS myelin and on the surface of cultured oligodendrocytes. Structurally, OMgp has the potential to function as an adhesion molecule and could contribute to the interactions between the plasma membranes of oligodendrocytes and axons required for myelination and/or axon survival. This study considers the specific hypothesis that PPMS in patients with NF1 results from concurrent mutation of the OMgp gene. The OMgp genes of four unrelated patients with NF1 and PPMS were examined using a combination of Southern blot, dosage polymerase chain reaction, and chemical cleavage of mismatch. The entire OMgp coding sequence, all intronic sequence, the intron-exon boundaries, and 1 kb of flanking sequence were screened. The DNA from two patients was found to contain an alteration in the OMgp gene resulting in an amino acid change of glycine to aspartic acid at codon 21. It is concluded that PPMS in patients with NF1 can occur without concurrent mutation of the OMgp gene. The glycine to aspartic acid polymorphic alteration at codon 21 is neither sufficient nor necessary for the development of PPMS.
How Well Do My Results Generalize? Comparing Security and Privacy Survey Results from MTurk and Web Panels to the U.S.

Security and privacy researchers often rely on data collected from Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) to evaluate security tools, to understand users’ privacy preferences, to measure online behavior, and for other studies. While the demographics of MTurk are broader than some other options, researchers have also recently begun to use census-representative web-panels to sample respondents with more representative demographics. Yet, we know little about whether security and privacy results from either of these data sources generalize to a broader population. In this paper, we compare the results of a survey about security and privacy knowledge, experiences, advice, and internet behavior distributed using MTurk (n=480), a nearly census-representative web-panel (n=428), and a probabilistic telephone sample (n=3,000) statistically weighted to be accurate within 2.7% of the true prevalence in the U.S. Surprisingly, we find that MTurk responses are slightly more representative of the U.S. population than are responses from the census-representative panel, except for users who hold no more than a high-school diploma or who are 50 years of age or older. Further, we find that statistical weighting of MTurk responses to balance demographics does not significantly improve generalizability. This leads us to hypothesize that differences between MTurkers and the general public are due not to demographics, but to differences in factors such as internet skill. Overall, our findings offer tempered encouragement for researchers using MTurk samples and enhance our ability to appropriately contextualize and interpret the results of crowdsourced security and privacy research.
Modular mayhem? A case study of the development of the A‐level science curriculum in England

This article investigates the costs and benefits of the increased use of modular or unitized qualification designs through a case study of the GCE A‐level science curriculum in England. Following a brief review of the development of modular A‐levels, the various proposed advantages of modularity—short‐term goals and regular feedback, flexibility in curriculum design, and improved progression possibilities—are counterpoised by arguments about the disadvantages—such as fragmentation of knowledge and more instrumental approaches to assessment and learning. The article argues that on balance the costs of the move to modularization in terms of the impact on teachers’ capacities to help young people understand science outweigh the perceived benefits of improved examination success rates. Given this balance we account for the growing popularity of modular approaches using a path dependency model and increasing returns process which combine features of the English educational landscape, in particular narrow accountability systems, to the increasing desirability of modular approaches to curriculum design for learners, teachers and educational organizations.