A Longitudinal Study of Marital Problems and Subsequent Divorce

This study investigated the extent to which reports of marital problems in 1980 predicted divorce between 1980 and 1992, the extent to which these problems mediated the impact of demographic and life course variables on divorce, and gender differences in reports of particular marital problems and in the extent to which these reports predicted divorce. Wives reported more marital problems than husbands did, although this was due to husbands ' tendency to report relatively few problems caused by their spouses. A variety of marital problems predicted divorce up to 12 years in the future. A parsimonious set of marital problems involving infidelity, spending money foolishly, drinking or drug use or both, jealousy, moodiness, and irritating habits mediated moderate proportions of the associations between demographic and life course variables and divorce. Key Words: divorce, gender, longitudinal studies, marital problems. Researchers trying to determine the causes of divorce have approached the problem in two ways. Some researchers have focused on demographic and life course variables that affect the risk of divorce, variables such as age at marriage, social class, race, religiosity, and parental divorce. Others have adopted a subjective perspective and asked previously married individuals why their marriages ended. In her 1990 review of the previous decade's research on predictors of divorce, White (1990) noted the relatively small number of studies in the latter group (e.g., Bloom, Niles, & Tatcher, 1985; Burns, 1984; Cleek & Pearson, 1985; Kitson & Sussman, 1982; Spanier & Thompson, 1987). She argued that personal accounts are useful and provocative, but "because these studies only include divorced respondents, they can tell us little about the extent to which these factors predict divorce" (p. 908). She also pointed out that there is little integration between studies of personal accounts of divorce and studies that focus on demographic and life course predictors of marital dissolution. Finally, she recommended more research that focuses on marital processes as predictors of divorce. The study presented here responds to White's call for more research on the links between marital processes and marital dissolution. Our study goes beyond prior research in three ways. First, in contrast to previous studies that used divorced people's retrospective accounts of marital problems, we use panel data from a nationally representative sample of married persons to investigate the extent to which marital problems in 1980 predict divorce between 1980 and 1992. In doing so, we address questions about the validity and usefulness of people's self-reports of marital problems as predictors of divorce. Second, we integrate data on specific marital problems (which we view as proximal causes of divorce) with data on the demographic and life course predictors of marital disruption identified in most prior sociological research (which we view as distal causes of divorce). To accomplish this, we assess the extent to which particular marital problems in 1980 mediate the associations between demographic and life course variables and divorce. Finally, because previous evidence suggests that men and women experience marriage and divorce differently (Bernard, 1972; Kitson, 1992; Thompson & Walker, 1989), we consider gender differences, both in the frequency of reports of marital problems in 1980 and in the extent to which these problems predict divorce between 1980 and 1992. MARITAL PROBLEMS AND DIVORCE Marital Problems as Predictors of Divorce Despite the substantial body of research on marital disruption, few prospective studies illustrate the extent to which specific characteristics of a relationship predict divorce. One exception is the work of Gottman and his colleagues, who have investigated some of the linkages among marital interaction, conflict resolution, and divorce (Gottman, 1994). …