Stability Analysis ofDifferent Monetary Policy Rules for a Macroeconomic Model withEndogenous Money and Credit Channel

Bofinger (2001) had built a macroeconomic model that tried to integrate the financial intermediation feature of the Bernanke-Blinder model with the “exogenous” character of money market interest rate. In the so-called IS-CM model there are two interest rates: the credit or banking interest rate, determined by the interactions between goods market and credit market clearing conditions, and the money market interest rate, set by monetary authorities. Up to now no efforts are made in the way to analyse the dynamics of Bofinger model under different assumptions about the determination of money market interest rate. The objective of this paper is to analyse the stability properties of Bofinger (2001) model under different monetary policy rules. More specifically we will consider four different cases: (a) strict inflation targeting; (b) strict inflation targeting plus anti-cyclical fiscal policy; (c) strict output targeting and (d) “double mandate” for Central Bank (output and inflation stabilization). As we will see, long-run equilibrium of the model can be stable only in cases (a) and (d); which means that the existence of nominal anchor is of fundamental importance for macroeconomic stability. We also conclude that an anti-cyclical fiscal policy is incompatible with macroeconomic stability under a strict inflation targeting regime. Key-words: Monetary Policy, Inflation Targeting, Dynamic Stability. JEL: E50, E31, C62 Resumo: Bofinger (2001) desenvolveu um modelo macroeconomico com o intuito de integrar o arcabouco financeiro da intermediacao financeira de Bernanke-Blinder com o carater exogeno da taxa basica de juros do mercado monetario. Assim, temos o modelo IS-CM onde existem duas taxas de juros, a saber: taxa de juros do credito bancario, determinada pela interacao entre o mercado de bens e o mercado de credito; e a taxa de juros de mercado, determinada pela autoridade monetaria. Ate entao, nenhum esforco havia sido empregado com o intuito de se analisar a dinâmica do modelo de Bofinger sob diferentes hipoteses acerca dos determinantes da taxa basica de juros. Sendo assim, o objetivo desse artigo e analisar as propriedades da estabilidade dinâmica do modelo de Bofinger sob diferentes regras de politica monetaria. Mais especificamente, iremos considerar quatro casos distintos: (a) regime de metas de inflacao estrito; (b) metas de inflacao em conjunto com utilizacao de politicas fiscais anticiclicas (c) regime de metas de produto estrito; (d) existencia de um duplo mandato para o Banco Central em termos de produto e estabilizacao da inflacao. Vamos mostrar, ainda, que a estabilidade dinâmica do modelo so e encontrada nos casos (a) e (d), de tal sorte que a existencia de uma âncora nominal e fundamental para a estabilidade macroeconomica. Sendo assim, podemos concluir que politicas fiscais anticiclicas sao incompativeis com a estabilidade macroeconomica sob o arranjo do regime de metas de inflacao. Palavras-chave: Politica Monetaria, Metas de Inflacao, Estabilidade Dinâmica Area 3: Macroeconomia, economia monetaria e financas.