Introduction to Chaos, Complexity, Uncertainty and Public Administration: A Symposium

Our understanding of the physical world has come a long way from the mechanistic rationalizations of causality so eloquently formalized by Sir Isaac Newton in the 17th century (Newton, 1687). Newton strived to subject the phenomena of nature to the laws of mathematics" (Newton, 1686:xi). The natural sciences have long come to the realization that while a Newtonian framework offers a sound starting point, it had serious shortcomings in explaining the complexity of systems (Wilson, 1998). Therefore, the last 100 years have resulted in a Kuhnian revolution in the development of theories based on multiple paradigms. The General Theory of Relativity dramatically changed the rational perception of existence which for 350 years had been based on Newton's laws (Hawking, 1988:23). In short, the Theory of Relativity argued that everything in existence was moving in relation to each other, thus observations and measurements are all relative to where they are made (Einstein, 1916:59-62). Furthermore, Newton had viewed existence as consisting of three dimensions: height, length, and width, but Einstein argued that there is a fourth dimension: time (Einstein, 1916:55-58). Therefore, one's perception of existence is relative to one's position in "space-time" (Einstein, 1916:91-96). The significance of the General Theory of Relativity is that it began to show the complexity and uncertainty of the natural world. Instead of a rational, predictive set of casual relationships, the relationships were based on an observer's position relative to that which was being observed. Thereby permitting two totally disparate conclusions to be drawn from the same observations, while being equally valid. This allows for complimentary aspects of reality, which in turn helped to show that multiple interpretations of reality can coexist (Overman, 1989; Morcol, 2000:11). Though our understanding of physical reality has changed dramatically on every level from subatomic particles (Quantum Theories) to grand cosmological theories, much of Public Administration is still firmly based on a Newtonian understanding of physical nature. Our understanding of physical reality has matured and evolved, but unfortunately our understanding of governance, public management, organizational theory, budgeting and financial management, and public policy analysis has experienced little to no progress in conceptualization or theoretical development. Additionally, Public Administration finds its research heavily anchored in the statistical methods based on Pascal, Gauss, Laplace, Galton, Edgeworth, and Pearson all of which were developed before 1900. For about a decade there have been a few individuals who have made progress in thinking about the impact nonNewtonian conceptualizations of nature might have on our understanding on Public Administration. The number of academics and practitioner applying chaos, complexity, and quantum theories to public administration are steadily growing This symposium is a small contribution to that effort. Often articles in academic journals are written for other academics and provide little benefit to those who actually practice Public Administration on a daily basis. One of the objectives of this symposium is to attempt to bridge the gap between academic and practitioner by providing intellectual depth, while simultaneously providing some practical methods. Additionally, the articles in this symposium span the spectrum of international, national, state, and local governments, thereby providing a broad range of appeal. L. Douglas Kiel begins the symposium by examining Agent-Based Modeling as a method of understanding the emergent complexity of a public organization. Kiel correctly asserts that one of the difficulties in adequately utilizing chaos and complexity theories in public administration is the lack of methodological tools for analysis Over the past decade Kiel has done a service to Public Administration not only by being one of the first to consider the impact of Chaos and Complexity Theories, but also to provide the proper research and practitioner tools. …