Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Ethics and Advocacy in Forecasting for Public Policy

Forecasting is one of the most important activities performed by professionals in support of public policymaking. In a world dominated by utilitarian thinking, policymakers regularly seek forecasts of the costs and consequences of alternative courses of action from planners, engineers, economists, and others. Many of the most interesting and complex ethical dilemmas facing these professionals arise from the complexity of the forecasting task and from the enormous political consequences of their forecasts. Forecasts are presented to the public as the results of unbiased scientific procedures, yet they are in reality often highly subjective exercises in advocacy. Professionals who must prepare forecasts are frequently confused by the mixed signals which they get. According to law, and in the eyes of the public, their forecasts are expected to provide analyses aimed at clarifying choices among courses of action. But their direct superiors and clients expect them to produce forecasts which will become part of the supporting documentation justifying a course of action which has already been chosen for political reasons. In the end, forecasts are often expected to be advocacy which at the same time can be presented to the public for political reasons as the results of unbiased analysis. For many forecasters this duplicity of purposes is deeply distressing, and for society at large it results in countless expenditures on projects and programs which are desired by politicians, but which could not be justified on the basis of utilitarian calculations. In this paper, I will demonstrate first'that there is indeed a serious ethical problem related to forecasting, which has serious political conse quences for our democracy, and immediate personal consequences for those preparing the forecasts. Secondly, I will expand upon the conditions which lead to the ethical dilemmas for forecasters in public policymaking. Finally, I will suggest some actions which might be taken to provide those making forecasts with improved ethical guideposts to help them cope with these complex situations.
Kinase domain mutations of BCR-ABL identified at diagnosis before imatinib-based therapy are associated with progression in patients with high Sokal risk chronic phase chronic myeloid leukemia

Acquired resistance to imatinib in the advanced phase of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) has been associated with mutations in the kinase domain (KD) of BCR-ABL. On the contrary, the prognostic implication of KD mutations in early chronic phase (CP) patients at diagnosis before imatinib-based therapy has not yet been established. We have reviewed the status of mutations in 43 patients with early CP-CML on the samples collected at diagnosis. Mutations were identified by direct sequencing (DS) with BidDye Terminator v 1.1. cycle sequencing kit and analyzed with a 3130 ABI capillary electrophoresis system. Eight out 13 (61.5%) high Sokal risk patients showed the following mutations: Y253C, S265R, E255K, F359Y, N374S, E255V, E255V, E255V. Three patients progressed during imatinib and second-line inhibitors and died of blastic phase CML at 23, 33, and 69 months. Another patient with intermediate Sokal risk showed D363G mutation at diagnosis, progressed under imatinib, was allografted and he is now alive in major molecular remission (MMR). No low-risk patient carried KD mutation at diagnosis. In conclusion, KD mutations conferring high-level imatinib resistance are present in patients with de novo CML and in some of them lead to disease progression.
Potentially singular solutions of the 3D axisymmetric Euler equations

Significance Whether infinitely fast spinning vortices can develop in initially smooth, incompressible inviscid flow fields in finite time is one of the most challenging problems in fluid dynamics. Besides being a difficult mathematical question that has remained open for more than 250 years, the problem also attracts great attention in the physics and engineering communities due to its potential connection to the onset of turbulence in viscous flows. This paper attempts to provide an affirmative answer to this long-standing open question from a numerical point of view, by describing a class of rotationally symmetric flows from which infinitely fast spinning vortices can form in finite time. It suggests, after decades of controversies, a promising direction to the resolution of the problem. The question of finite-time blowup of the 3D incompressible Euler equations is numerically investigated in a periodic cylinder with solid boundaries. Using rotational symmetry, the equations are discretized in the (2D) meridian plane on an adaptive (moving) mesh and is integrated in time with adaptively chosen time steps. The vorticity is observed to develop a ring-singularity on the solid boundary with a growth proportional to ∼(ts − t)−2.46, where ts ∼ 0.0035056 is the estimated singularity time. A local analysis also suggests the existence of a self-similar blowup. The simulations stop at τ2 = 0.003505 at which time the vorticity amplifies by more than (3 × 108)-fold and the maximum mesh resolution exceeds (3 × 1012)2. The vorticity vector is observed to maintain four significant digits throughout the computations.
Energy partitioning in growing pigs: the use of a multivariate model as an alternative for the factorial analysis.

To quantify the utilization of ME by growing pigs, a factorial analysis method is often used in which the ME intake is regressed on protein (PD) and lipid deposition (LD) rates. The approach has been criticized because there often is a strong correlation between PD and LD, which makes accurate estimation of model parameters difficult. The current study describes a nonlinear multivariate analysis procedure in which PD and LD are the result of variation in ME intake. The approach requires a hypothesis concerning the partitioning of ME intake above maintenance between PD and LD. The method was evaluated using data for growing pigs of different genotypes and sex and weighing between 20 and 107 kg that were offered a diet close to ad libitum. Energy, nitrogen, and fat balances were determined at regular intervals over the growing period. The maintenance energy requirement was expressed as a function of BW (with group-specific parameters) or as a function of muscle and visceral mass. The maintenance energy requirements ranged from 913 to 1,070 kJ ME/((kg BW). 60.d) for obese castrates and boars of a synthetic line, respectively. Viscera contributed 1,558 kJ ME/ ((kg tissue). 70.d) to the maintenance energy requirement, whereas muscle contributed only 555 kJ ME/ ((kg tissue). 70.d). It was assumed that the proportion of ME intake (above maintenance) designated for PD declined linearly with increasing BW. At 20 kg of BW, 49% of ME intake above maintenance was designated for PD in lean genotypes, whereas this was only 34% in obese genotypes. In general, with increasing BW, less energy was designated for PD, but this relationship depended on genotype and sex. Extremely lean male genotypes maintained a constant partitioning of energy between PD and LD for all BW. The energetic efficiencies varied (depending on the model used to express the maintenance requirement) between . 58 and . 60 for PD and . 77 and . 82 for LD. Extrapolation of results suggested that animals fed at maintenance energy level would still deposit protein at the expense of body lipid. It is argued that this finding requires nonbiological efficiencies of lipid catabolism and protein synthesis and illustrates the limitation of the maintenance concept for growing animals. The multivariate analysis method proposed here circumvents many of the problems associated with the factorial regression analysis of ME intake on PD and LD. The method can be used to further refine nutritional models describing growth in pigs.
Concept Mapping: Connecting Educators Proc. of the Third Int. Conference on Concept Mapping Concept Maps as Meaningful Learning Tools in a Web–based Chemistry Material

This paper presents a web-based learning material and its design process which goal is to support meaningful chemistry learning in the context of insect chemistry through concept maps. This material was designed based on the results of a four phases of a design research process: (i) a theoretical problem analysis phase, (ii) a development of a material phase, (iii) an evaluation phase, and (iv) a further development phase. This material was found useful primarily for high-school chemistry instruction. The results show that concept maps were an effective learning aid and navigation tool in web-based learning environment, according to chemistry teachers.
Young African American Children's Representations of Self, Science, and School: Making Sense of Difference.

We focused on young, low-income, African American children in first- to third-grade classrooms where they experienced varied forms of interactive, participatory, and dialogic pedagogy in the context of yearlong, integrated science-literacy instruction. Using conversations that started around children's own science journals, which were an important part of teaching and learning science in their classrooms, we studied 25 children's ideological becoming relative to the practices of science and schooling and the interplay between their selves and others. We found that “doing school” was a dominant narrative intertwined with “doing science. ” Following behavioral codes and constructing smartness as a large amount of knowledge seemed to be an important part of their school world, antithetical in some ways to the active, inquisitive, questioning, flexible view of science and science learning that their classroom instruction aimed for. Nevertheless, children had also constructed valuable scientific practices and sophisticated conceptions that involved science as capital (social, cultural, or affective) for scientists and/or for themselves as scientists. How children made sense of their experiences in and out of school and interpreted their teacher's and peers' words and actions, and how they saw themselves as competent, were echoed in the varied ideological becoming in their science worlds. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Sci Ed95:824–851, 2011
You Can′t Always Forget What You Want: Directed Forgetting of Related Words

Two experiments investigated the influence of directed forgetting on semantically related words versus semantically unrelated words. Subjects first studied a list in which a REMEMBER or FORGET instruction followed each word (e.g., crab . REMEMBER . leg . FORGET); they were tested on all of the words, regardless of study instruction. Recall and recognition-scored both for individual words and for word pairs-revealed a consistent pattern: Retention of FORGET words was markedly better when they followed related REMEMBER words, as opposed to when they followed related FORGET words or unrelated words. Thus, a pre-existing semantic relation was able to override an instruction to forget. This helps to explain why studies using unrelated word lists generally show substantial cued forgetting, whereas those using related material do not. The findings also place a clear constraint on the domain and explanation of directed forgetting.
The Implementation of Cost of Quality ( COQ ) Reporting System in Malaysian Manufacturing Companies : Difficulties Encountered and Benefits Acquired

This study attempted explored the difficulties encountered in the implementation of Cost of Quality (COQ) reporting among manufacturing organizations in Malaysia. A questionnaire survey method was used to find out the difficulties encountered during COQ implementation as well as the benefits obtained after COQ implementation. The findings of the study revealed that only 33 organizations (or 39.3%) out of 84 organizations had implemented COQ reporting system. Lack of cooperation among departments and difficulties in getting data were the top two challenges faced by these 33 organizations during the implementation of COQ. However, there are some benefits reported, after the implementation of COQ reporting in these organizations. The main benefits gained are, improvements in terms of the quality of product/service and the reduction of the company’s failure rate.
Robust Stability Analysis of Nonlinear Hybrid Systems

We present a methodology for robust stability analysis of nonlinear hybrid systems, through the algorithmic construction of polynomial and piecewise polynomial Lyapunov-like functions using convex optimization and in particular the sum of squares decomposition of multivariate polynomials. Several improvements compared to previous approaches are discussed, such as treating in a unified way polynomial switching surfaces and robust stability analysis for nonlinear hybrid systems.
Visual Displays and Cognitive Tunneling: Frames of Reference Effects on Spatial Judgments and Change Detection

This proposal describes a two-part study which illustrate “cognitive tunneling” as it affects information gathering and change detection in computer-generated terrain displays. We define cognitive tunneling as the effect where observers tend to focus attention on information from specific areas of a display to the exclusion of information presented outside of these highly attended areas. Previous research suggests that cognitive tunneling is induced by more immersive or egocentric visual displays and results in poorer information extraction and situation awareness as compared to an exocentric display of the same information. The experiment discussed here determined that failure of the observers to integrate information across the two views of the immersed display was the primary cause of the cognitive tunneling effect. In addition, participants' abilities to detect changes to objects in the environment were affected by the type of change as well as the salience of its presentation within the view.
COMPARISON OF AN ORDINAL AND A CONTINUOUS OUTCOME MEASURE OF MUSCLE SORENESS

The relationship between an ordinal (Likert) and a continuous (visual analog) measure of pain was investigated in 400 long-distance runners experiencing delayed-onset muscle soreness. Subjects completed a 100-mm visual analog scale (VAS) and a 7-point Likert scale twice a day for 5 days, starting at 9:00 PM on the evening of the run. The relationship between scales was modeled by calculating the median VAS for each Likert score and the modal Likert score for each point on the VAS. Standardized means were calculated by dividing the total of 5 day scores by the standard error of 5 day scores for all subjects. The relationship between scales was approximately linear, but VAS scores recorded concurrently with each Likert score varied enormously. VAS responses for a Likert score of zero were lower than expected, apparently because subjects chose zero only if they were completely free of soreness. The standardized mean of the Likert scale was higher (34.1 [SD 20] versus 30.4 [SD20] p <<< .0001), suggesting greater responsiveness. The Likert scale can be recommended as a method of measuring muscle soreness, but researchers should not anchor the lowest score to zero pain.
Estimates of harm associated with changes in Swedish alcohol policy: results from past and present estimates.

AIMS (i) To compare actual developments of alcohol-related harm in Sweden with estimates derived prior to major policy changes in 1995 and (ii) to estimate the effects on consumption and alcohol-related harm of reducing alcohol prices in Sweden. DESIGN Alcohol effect parameters expressing the strength of the relationship between overall alcohol consumption and different alcohol-related harms were obtained from ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time-series analyses. MEASUREMENTS Measures of Swedish alcohol-related mortality (liver cirrhosis, alcoholic psychosis, alcoholism and alcohol poisoning), accident mortality, suicide, homicide, assaults and sickness absence from 1950 to 1995. FINDINGS Previous estimates of alcohol-related harm based on changes in alcohol consumption for the period 1994-2002 for Sweden were, in some cases (e.g. violent assaults and accidents), relatively close to the actual harm levels, whereas in other cases (e.g. homicides, alcohol-related mortality and suicide) they diverged from observed harm levels. A tax cut by 40% on spirits and by 15% on wine is estimated to increase total per capita alcohol consumption by 0.35 litre. This increase is estimated to cause 289 additional deaths, 1627 additional assaults and 1.6 million additional sickness absence days. CONCLUSIONS The estimates of future changes in harm based upon even relatively modest increases in alcohol consumption produce considerable negative effects, with large economic consequences for the Swedish economy. The additional alcohol-related deaths, for instance, amount to more than half the number of yearly traffic fatalities in Sweden.
Isolation and Properties of Cellulose Nanofibrils from Coconut Palm Petioles by Different Mechanical Process

In this study, cellulose nanofibrils (CNFs) were successfully isolated from coconut palm petiole residues falling off naturally with chemical pretreatments and mechanical treatments by a grinder and a homogenizor. FTIR spectra analysis showed that most of hemicellulose and lignin were removed from the fiber after chemical pretreatments. The compositions of CNFS indicated that high purity of nanofibrils with cellulose contain more than 95% was obtained. X-ray diffractogram demonstrated that chemical pretreatments significantly increased the crystallinity of CNFs from 38.00% to 70.36%; however, 10-15 times of grinding operation followed by homogenizing treatment after the chemical pretreatments did not significantly improve the crystallinity of CNFs. On the contrary, further grinding operation could destroy crystalline regions of the cellulose. SEM image indicated that high quality of CNFs could be isolated from coconut palm petiole residues with chemical treatments in combination of 15 times of grinding followed by 10 times of homogenization and the aspect ratio of the obtained CNFs ranged from 320 to 640. The result of TGA-DTG revealed that the chemical-mechanical treatments improved thermal stability of fiber samples, and the CNFs with 15 grinding passing times had the best thermal stability. This work suggests that the CNFs can be successfully extracted from coconut palm petiole residues and it may be a potential feedstock for nanofiber reinforced composites due to its high aspect ratio and crystallinity.
The influence of affective state on the performance of a block design task in 6- and 7-year-old children

This study investigated the influence of positive, neutral, and negative affective states on young children's cognitive performance. Participants were 36 first- and second-grade children who were randomly assigned to one of the three affect conditions. Affect was manipulated by having participants listen to a story with a happy, sad, or neutral stopping point. Responses using a facial affect scale indicated that this manipulation was effective. At the stopping point, participants were given a block design task. Children in the positive affect condition scored substantially higher than children in the neutral or negative affect conditions and showed greater efficiency. This finding shows that a small, temporary change in affective state can significantly impact a child's performance on a challenging cognitive task requiring spatial analysis, having a clear solution, and requiring flexible thought.
ANIRIDIA, CEREBELLAR ATAXIA, AND OLIGOPHRENIA IN SIBLINGS.

In 1931 Marinesco et al1reported a family in which five siblings, four boys and a girl, had cerebellar ataxia and oligophrenia with congenital cataracts. In 1947 Sjogren2reported two patients in two different families, both with consanguineous parents, who had cerebellar ataxia, oligophrenia, and congenital cataracts. Since that time the syndrome of cerebellar ataxia, oligophrenia, and congenital cataracts has become known as the Marinesco-Sjogren syndrome. It is a very rare syndrome apparently inherited as an autosomal recessive trait. Other authors who have written papers on this syndrome are Richards,3Garland and Moorhouse,4Decock and Macken,5Durusken,6MacGillivray,7Dogulu and Mutler,8Dureaux, Cordier, Ziza and Tridon,9Amyot,10Franceschetti, Marty, and Klein,11Muller,12Alter, Talbert, and Croffead,13,14and Prot.15Francois16states that aniridia with oligophrenia has been reported several times. It is the purpose of this
Horizontal Transmission of Malignancy: In-Vivo Fusion of Human Lymphomas with Hamster Stroma Produces Tumors Retaining Human Genes and Lymphoid Pathology

We report the in-vivo fusion of two Hodgkin lymphomas with golden hamster cheek pouch cells, resulting in serially-transplanted (over 5–6 years) GW-532 and GW-584 heterosynkaryon tumor cells displaying both human and hamster DNA (by FISH), lymphoma-like morphology, aggressive metastasis, and retention of 7 human genes (CD74, CXCR4, CD19, CD20, CD71, CD79b, and VIM) out of 24 tested by PCR. The prevalence of B-cell restricted genes (CD19, CD20, and CD79b) suggests that this uniform population may be the clonal initiating (malignant) cells of Hodgkin lymphoma, despite their not showing translation to their respective proteins by immunohistochemical analysis. This is believed to be the first report of in-vivo cell-cell fusion of human lymphoma and rodent host cells, and may be a method to disclose genes regulating both organoid and metastasis signatures, suggesting that the horizontal transfer of tumor DNA to adjacent stromal cells may be implicated in tumor heterogeneity and progression. The B-cell gene signature of the hybrid xenografts suggests that Hodgkin lymphoma, or its initiating cells, is a B-cell malignancy.
Keeping Them Honest: Public and Elite Perceptions of Ethical Conduct among Australian Legislators

Public confidence in politicians across all democratic countries has fallen to historic lows in recent years. In Australia, around one in three voters believe that legislators use their public office for financial gain, and only one in four believe that legislators have a high moral code. Governments in many countries have attempted to deal with this problem by establishing codes of ethical conduct for legislators. This paper examines what standards citizens expect from their politicians and, in turn, what standards politicians themselves regard as important. The data come from the 1996 Australian Election Study survey which asked voters and elected representatives what importance they attributed to the eight principles laid out in the federal parliament's own ethical guide. The results show that voters expect higher standards from legislators than do legislators themselves, particularly with regard to the proper use of public resources and rejecting favouritism. A range of hypotheses are tested to account for citizen and elite beliefs about legislators' ethical conduct. The results show that stronger democratic culture and political skills are important for the public, and lengthy exposure to political parties and democratic institutions for the elite.