Understanding differences in postsecondary educational attainment: A comparison of predictive measures for Black and White students

This study examines how student-level indicators-such as expectations for postsecondary education, academic achievement, participation in college preparatory tests, and student-parent communications- are related to postsecondary educational attainment for Black and White populations. Publicly available data for studying postsecondary attainment are described, and data from the College Board and the National Center for Education Statistics were analyzed to describe postsecondary educational attainment across ethnic groups. Following a univariate assessment of Black-White differences on potential predictors of attainment, multiple regression analyses were conducted to examine how these indicators collectively predict postsecondary attainment for Black and White students. When controlling for other predictors, gender was the strongest indicator of educational attainment among Black students, with females completing more postsecondary education than males; greater mathematics achievement and higher parental expectations were also predictive of higher postsecondary attainment. In contrast, for White students, higher student expectations and socioeconomic status (SES), along with greater mathematics achievement, were most predictive of postsecondary attainment in the full model. Substantive implications are discussed, along with design concerns for future studies of postsecondary attainment. The student population in the U.S. continues to progress toward greater racial and ethnic diversity. Since the Coleman study documented substantial achievement gaps across racial/ethnic groups, greater research emphasis has been placed on identifying and understanding incongruities in educational opportunities and outcomes (Coleman et al., 1966). One of the most significant educational opportunities is pursuit of a 4-year bachelor's degree. Existing literature clearly indicates an underrepresentation of certain racial/ethnic minority groups in higher educational institutions (e.g., Fine & Davis, 2003; Freeman & Fox, 2005; Koretz, Lewis, & DeSilets, 1990). In particular, African American and Hispanic students are proportionally underrepresented in higher educational institutions and have lower 5-year completion rates than White and Asian students (Horn & Berger, 2004; Hudson, 2003). The socioeconomic importance of postsecondary education can be illustrated by examining changes in the job market and in average earnings. In the latter part of the 20th century, the number of available professional jobs increased markedly; as did the likelihood that individuals filling these positions had completed at least some postsecondary education (Carnevale & Desrochers, 2003; Carnevale & Rose, 1998). The average earnings of 30- to 59-year old high school graduates decreased by 15.8% over the 20 years from 1979 to 1999, whereas the earnings for bachelor and graduate degree recipients increased by 9% and 30%, respectively, over the same time period, that is, estimated in 2000 dollars (Carnevale & Desrochers, 2003). Holding constant indicators, such as, gender and field of study, individuals with a bachelor's degree earn approximately 40% more than the average high school graduate (Grubb, 1996). Based on these trends, individuals without postsecondary degrees are more likely to be economically left behind. The Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2004 report shows that Black households had lower median income in 2004 ($30,134) than any other reported ethnic group (DeNavas-Walt, Proctor, & Lee, 2004). If the socioeconomic status (SES) of African Americans is to be raised, they must be able to assume jobs offering the best earning potential, namely those requiring postsecondary educational degrees. In reviewing the history of African American education, Williamson (1999) highlighted two legislative events significantly impacting minority postsecondary educational opportunity: The Civil Rights Act of 1964 and The Higher Education Act of 1965. …