Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Confidence intervals for univariate discrete-event simulation output using the Kalman filter

The construction of confidence intervals for discrete-event simulation parameters must account for the correlated nature of simulation output. Through the determination of system equations and application of the Kalman filter to simulation output data, a new confidence interval construction technique has been developed. The technique uses Multiple Model Adap-tive Estimation (MMAE) to obtain a nonsymmetric confidence interval for the mean estimator of a uni-variate output sequence. A Monte Carlo analysis of data generated from simulations of M/M/1 queues was used to compare the performance of the proposed techniques with other published techniques. 1 INTRODUCTION This paper is organized in four sections. The first section discusses output analysis for discrete-event simulations , including a brief description of several published techniques for confidence interval construction. The next section develops a proposed Kalman filter confidence interval construction technique. Included are discussions on the Kalman filter, model formulation , Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation (MMAE), and the steps involved in the proposed confidence interval construction technique. The third section re-porte the results of a Monte Carlo analyfiia on data from simulations of M/M/1 queues. The final section provides a brief summary. The research presented in this paper draws heavily upon results found in Howard (1992) and Gallagher (1992). 1.1 Discrete-Event Simulations In discrete-event simulation, a typical output analysis objective is to obtain estimates of various output parameters. Often, a confidence interval is constructed to give the analyst a better measure of an estimate's reliability. This research concentrates on constructing confidence intervals for parameters of discrete-event simulations. One class of discrete-event simulations is infinite-horizon simulations, in which one is interested in estimating steady-state parameters. Although it is possible that these parameters may be cyclic, we focus on output sequences that attain a stationary steady-state probability distribution. Often simulation output contains transient data which may bias parameter estimates. In this research, the effect of the start-up problem was diminished by truncating a large part of the simulation output. Typically, the simulation output sequence is positively correlated, and classical statistics for independent observations do not apply. Several techniques, each of which deal with the correlation problem in different ways, have been proposed for estimating confidence intervals based on one long simulation run The proposed Kalman filter technique offers a novel approach for addressing the correlation issue and constructing confidence intervals. Before discussing this approach, brief descriptions of four popular techniques are provided. These techniques will be used in …
The Memory-Conservation Theory of Memristance

The memristor, the recently discovered fundamental circuit element, is of great interest for neuromorphic computing, nonlinear electronics and computer memory. It is usually modelled either using Chua's equations, which lack material device properties, or using Strukov's phenomenological model (or models derived from it), which deviates from Chua's definitions due to the lack of a magnetic flux term. It is shown that by modelling the magneto statics of the memory-holding ionic current (oxygen vacancies in the Strukov memristor), the memristor's magnetic flux can be identified as the flux arising from the ions. This leads to a novel theory of memristance consisting of two components: 1. A memory function which describes how the memristance, as felt by the ions, affects the conducting electrons located in the 'on' part of the device, 2. A conservation function which describes the time-varying resistance in the 'off' part of the device. This model allows for a straight-forward incorporation of the ions within the electronic theory and relates Chua's constitutive definition of a memristor with device material properties for the first time.
Phorbol myristate acetate induces neutrophil NADPH‐oxidase activity by two separate signal transduction pathways: dependent or independent of phosphatidylinositol 3‐kinase

The neutrophil NADPH‐oxidase can be activated by protein kinase C (PKC) agonists such as phorbol myristate acetate (PMA), resulting in superoxide anion release. This superoxide release is independent of phosphatidylinositol 3‐kinase (PI 3‐kinase) because the inhibitor wortmannin does not affect the response. In this study, PMA is shown to also induce a wortmannin‐sensitive NADPH‐oxidase activation, however, not resulting in release of superoxide but in intracellular production of the radical. This indicates that two pools of NADPH‐oxidase, one localized in the plasma membrane and the other in the granule membranes, are separately regulated and the signal transduction pathways leading to activation of these pools differ regarding involvement of PI 3‐kinase. Activation of both pools was dependent on ERK/MAPK kinase (MEK) activity and protein phosphatase 1 and/or 2A. As the two oxidase responses were differently affected by the inhibitor Gö‐6850, different PKC isozymes are suggested to take part in the two signal transduction pathways. J. Leukoc. Biol. 67: 396–404; 2000.
Inferring Application Type Information from Tor Encrypted Traffic

Tor is a famous anonymity communication system for preserving users' online privacy. It supports TCP applications and packs application data into encrypted equal-sized cells to hide some private information of users, such as the running application type (Web, P2P, FTP, Others). The known of application types is harmful because they can be used to reduce the anonymity set and facilitate other attacks. However, unfortunately, the current Tor design cannot conceal certain application behaviors. For example, P2P applications usually upload and download files simultaneously and this behavioral feature is also kept in Tor traffic. Motivated by this observation, we investigate a new attack against Tor, traffic classification attack, which can recognize application types from Tor traffic. An attacker first carefully selects some flow features, e.g., burst volumes and directions to represent the application behaviors and takes advantage of some efficient machine learning algorithm to model different types of applications. Then these established models can be used to classify target's Tor traffic and infer its application type. We have implemented the traffic classification attack on Tor and our experiments validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the attack.
Preserved Suppression of Salient Irrelevant Stimuli During Visual Search in Age-Associated Memory Impairment

Previous studies have suggested that older adults with age-associated memory impairment (AAMI) may show a significant decline in attentional resource capacity and inhibitory processes in addition to memory impairment. In the present paper, the potential attentional capture by task-irrelevant stimuli was examined in older adults with AAMI compared to healthy older adults using scalp-recorded event-related brain potentials (ERPs). ERPs were recorded during the execution of a visual search task, in which the participants had to detect the presence of a target stimulus that differed from distractors by orientation. To explore the automatic attentional capture phenomenon, an irrelevant distractor stimulus defined by a different feature (color) was also presented without previous knowledge of the participants. A consistent N2pc, an electrophysiological indicator of attentional deployment, was present for target stimuli but not for task-irrelevant color stimuli, suggesting that these irrelevant distractors did not attract attention in AAMI older adults. Furthermore, the N2pc for targets was significantly delayed in AAMI patients compared to healthy older controls. Together, these findings suggest a specific impairment of the attentional selection process of relevant target stimuli in these individuals and indicate that the mechanism of top-down suppression of entirely task-irrelevant stimuli is preserved, at least when the target and the irrelevant stimuli are perceptually very different.
A DYNAMIC ANALYSIS OF THE MICROSTRUCTURE OF MOVING AVERAGE RULES IN A DOUBLE AUCTION MARKET

Inspired by the theoretically oriented dynamic analysis of moving average rules in the model of Chiarella, He, and Hommes (CHH) [Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 30 (2006), 1729—1753], this paper conducts a dynamic analysis of a more realistic microstructure model of continuous double auctions in which the probability of heterogeneous agents trading is determined by the rules of either fundamentalists mean-reverting to the fundamental or chartists choosing moving average rules based on their relative performance. With such a realistic market microstructure, the model is able not only to obtain the results of the CHH model but also to characterize most of the stylized facts including volatility clustering, insignificant autocorrelations (ACs) of returns, and significant slowly decaying ACs of the absolute returns. The results seem to suggest that a comprehensive explanation of several statistical properties of returns is possible in a framework where both behavioral traits and realistic microstructure have a role.
PATHOLOGY AND DISTRIBUTION OF SEA TURTLES LANDED AS BYCATCH IN THE HAWAII-BASED NORTH PACIFIC PELAGIC LONGLINE FISHERY

We examined the gross and microscopic pathology and distribution of sea turtles that were landed as bycatch from the Hawaii, USA–based pelagic longline fishery and known to be forced submerged. Olive ridley turtles (Lepidochelys olivacea) composed the majority of animals examined, and hook-induced perforation of the esophagus was the most common gross lesion followed by perforation of oral structures (tongue, canthus) and of flippers. Gross pathology in the lungs suggestive of drowning was seen in 23 of 71 turtles. Considering only the external gross findings, the pathologist and the observer on board the longline vessel agreed on hook-induced lesions only 60% of the time thereby illustrating the limitations of depending on external examination alone to implicate hooking interactions or drowning as potential cause of sea turtle mortality. When comparing histology of drowned turtles to a control group of nondrowned turtles, the former had significantly more pulmonary edema, hemorrhage, and sloughed columnar epithelium. These microscopic changes may prove useful to diagnose suspected drowning in sea turtles where history of hooking or netting interactions is unknown.
Contract Types for Satisficing Task Allocation

We analyze task reallocation where individually rational ([R) agents (re)contract tasks among themselves based on marginal costs. A task allocation graph is introduced as a tool for analyzing contract types. Traditional single task contracts always have a short path (sequence of contracts) to the optimal task allocation but an IR path may not exist, or it may not be short. We analyze an algorithm for finding the shortest IR path. Next we introduce cluster contracts, swaps, and multiagent contracts. Each of the four contract types avoids some local optima that the others do not. Even if the protocol is equipped with all four types, local optima exist. To attack this problem, we introduce OCSMcontracts which combine the ideas behind the four earlier types into an atomic contract type. If the protocol is equipped with OCSM-contracts, any sequence of IR contracts leads to the optimal task allocation in a finite number of steps: an oracle--or speculation--is not needed for choosing the path (no subset of OCSMcontracts suffices even with an oracle). This means that the multiagent search does not need to backtrack. This is a powerful result for small problem instances. For large ones, the anytime feature of our multicontract-type algorithm--with provably monotonic improvement of each agent’s solution--is more important. 1
The Social and Economic Consequences of Gendered Toys in America

Toys in the American marketplace are heavily gender stereotyped, creating a variety of social and economic consequences. Beginning at an early age, children foster different cognitive abilities based on play with toys deemed appropriate for their gender. While boys' toys promote skills in math and science fields, girls' toys promote verbal and linguistic skills. This difference in cognitive ability has shown to influence a child throughout his or her lifetime, beginning with the education gap in schools and continuing on to influence a child's choice in college major as well as his or her future occupational choice. Additionally, gender specific toys are raising concern about promoting violence in young boys and an obsession with appearance in young girls. While it is clear that children historically prefer toys designated for their own gender, this paper concludes that children's preferences in toys are heavily influenced by parental, teacher and societal expectations regarding which toys are appropriate for each gender. Lastly, this paper aims to explore the future consequences of toy segregation as well as several potential solutions to gendered toys in the marketplace.
Success of Active Revegetation after Tamarix Removal in Riparian Ecosystems of the Southwestern United States: A Quantitative Assessment of Past Restoration Projects

Invasion by the non‐native tree Tamarix has led to implementation of restoration projects aimed at maintaining the ecological integrity of many riparian communities in the southwestern United States. These restoration efforts may include Tamarix removal, manipulation of hydrologic regimes, and active revegetation of native species. The goal of this study was to determine which site characteristics are correlated with restoration success, defined in terms of reductions of undesirable species such as Tamarix and establishment of desirable, native species. To accomplish this, vegetative and environmental data were collected at 28 sites in the southwestern United States where active revegetation was completed after Tamarix removal. These data were incorporated into regression tree models with predictor variables that included number of years since removal (1–18 years) and multiple management, climate, soils, and hydrological variables to determine success of Tamarix control, revegetation success, and general plant community responses. Our results suggest that there are easily measurable site characteristics that are associated with greater native cover and richness, planting success, and Tamarix control. Close proximity to perennial water, sufficient precipitation, recent flooding, and good drainage as well as coarser soil texture, and lower soil pH all favored native species. Overall, those site characteristics associated with native species success were the same as those related to lower Tamarix cover. These quantitative models are intended to assist researchers and land managers to design more effective riparian restoration efforts in this critical arid lands ecosystem.
On the Synchrotron Self-Compton Emission from Relativistic Shocks and Its Implications for Gamma-Ray Burst Afterglows

We consider the effects of inverse Compton scattering of synchrotron photons from relativistic electrons in γ-ray burst (GRB) afterglows. We compute the spectrum of the inverse Compton emission and find that it can dominate the total cooling rate of the afterglow for several months or even years after the initial explosion. We demonstrate that the presence of strong inverse Compton cooling can be deduced from the effect it has on the time evolution of the cooling break in the synchrotron spectral component, and therefore on the optical and X-ray afterglow light curves. We then show how the physical interpretation of the observed characteristics of the synchrotron spectrum must be modified to take into consideration this extra source of cooling and give a revised prescription for computing physical parameters characterizing the expanding shock wave from the observed quantities. We find that for a given set of observables (synchrotron break frequencies and fluxes) there is either no consistent physical interpretation or two of them. Finally we discuss the prospects of directly detecting the inverse Compton emission with Chandra. We argue that such a detection is possible for GRBs exploding in a reasonably dense (n ≳ 1 cm-3) medium.
Activist Macroeconomic Policy, Election Effects and the Formation of Expectations: Evidence from OECD Economies

We examine the explanatory power of a political-business cycle theory in which governments practice short-run policy to lessen the impact of exogenous shocks. Governments have ideological objectives with respect to macroeconomic performance, but are constrained by an augmented Phillips curve. The most prominent version, the rational partisan model, incorporates forward-looking expectations. This model can be compared to a competing model based on backward-looking expectations. Alesina and Roubini's recent advocacy of the rational model uses OECD data. Our reconsideration of the same data, updated to 1995, suggests that the adaptive expectations version offers a better explanation than the rational one. Copyright Blackwell Publishers Ltd 2000.
Protein Variants Form a System of Networks: Microdiversity of IMP Metallo-Beta-Lactamases

Genome and metagenome sequencing projects support the view that only a tiny portion of the total protein microdiversity in the biosphere has been sequenced yet, while the vast majority of existing protein variants is still unknown. By using a network approach, the microdiversity of 42 metallo-β-lactamases of the IMP family was investigated. In the networks, the nodes are formed by the variants, while the edges correspond to single mutations between pairs of variants. The 42 variants were assigned to 7 separate networks. By analyzing the networks and their relationships, the structure of sequence space was studied and existing, but still unknown, functional variants were predicted. The largest network consists of 10 variants with IMP-1 in its center and includes two ubiquitous mutations, V67F and S262G. By relating the corresponding pairs of variants, the networks were integrated into a single system of networks. The largest network also included a quartet of variants: IMP-1, two single mutants, and the respective double mutant. The existence of quartets indicates that if two mutations resulted in functional enzymes, the double mutant may also be active and stable. Therefore, quartet construction from triplets was applied to predict 15 functional variants. Further functional mutants were predicted by applying the two ubiquitous mutations in all networks. In addition, since the networks are separated from each other by 10–15 mutations on average, it is expected that a subset of the theoretical intermediates are functional, and therefore are supposed to exist in the biosphere. Finally, the network analysis helps to distinguish between epistatic and additive effects of mutations; while the presence of correlated mutations indicates a strong interdependency between the respective positions, the mutations V67F and S262G are ubiquitous and therefore background independent.
Improving Evolutionary Algorithms for Efficient Constraint Satisfaction

Hard or large-scale constraint satisfaction and optimization problems, occur widely in artificial intelligence and operations research. These problems are often difficult to solve with global search methods, but many of them can be efficiently solved by local search methods. Evolutionary algorithms are local search methods which have considerable success in tackling difficult, or ill-defined optimization problems. In contrast they have not been so successful in tackling constraint satisfaction problems. Other local search methods, in particular GENET and EGENET are designed specifically for constraint satisfaction problems, and have demonstrated remarkable success in solving hard examples of these problems. In this paper we examine how we can transfer the mechanisms that were so successful in (E)GENET to evolutionary algorithms, in order to tackle constraint satisfaction algorithms efficiently. An empirical comparison of our evolutionary algorithm improved by mechanisms from EGENET and shows how it can markedly improve on the efficiency of EGENET in solving certain hard instances of constraint satisfaction problems.
Awareness and Knowledge of Sexually Transmitted Infections among Secondary School Adolescents in Ado Ekiti, South Western Nigeria

Objective. To determine the awareness and knowledge of sexually transmitted infections among adolescents in Ado, South Western Nigeria. Methods. The study was a descriptive cross-sectional design. Five hundred and fifty adolescents selected from public and private secondary schools in Ado Local Government Area of Ekiti State were recruited using a multistage sampling technique. Results. Four hundred and ninety-nine (92.4%) respondents had heard about sexually transmitted infections before, the three most important sources of information being electronic media (68.7%); teachers (68.1%); and print media (44.9%). Eighty percent of the respondents knew only one STI and the two most commonly mentioned ones were HIV/AIDS (78.0%) and gonorrhea (23.0%). More than 75% of the respondents knew the modes of transmission of STIs while some of them equally had misconceptions. The most important symptoms mentioned were weight loss (77.4%), painful micturition (68.9%), and genital ulcer (54.1%). On the whole, only 6.9% of the respondents had good knowledge of STIs; the rest had fair and poor knowledge. Conclusion. Secondary school adolescents in Ado Local Government Area have only a fair knowledge of sexually transmitted diseases. STI studies should be inculcated into the school curriculum and media publicity/enlightenment campaigns about them should be intensified.
Validity of the Kinect for Gait Assessment: A Focused Review

Gait analysis may enhance clinical practice. However, its use is limited due to the need for expensive equipment which is not always available in clinical settings. Recent evidence suggests that Microsoft Kinect may provide a low cost gait analysis method. The purpose of this report is to critically evaluate the literature describing the concurrent validity of using the Kinect as a gait analysis instrument. An online search of PubMed, CINAHL, and ProQuest databases was performed. Included were studies in which walking was assessed with the Kinect and another gold standard device, and consisted of at least one numerical finding of spatiotemporal or kinematic measures. Our search identified 366 papers, from which 12 relevant studies were retrieved. The results demonstrate that the Kinect is valid only for some spatiotemporal gait parameters. Although the kinematic parameters measured by the Kinect followed the trend of the joint trajectories, they showed poor validity and large errors. In conclusion, the Kinect may have the potential to be used as a tool for measuring spatiotemporal aspects of gait, yet standardized methods should be established, and future examinations with both healthy subjects and clinical participants are required in order to integrate the Kinect as a clinical gait analysis tool.