Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Claims Reserving When There Are Negative Values in the Runoff Triangle

Abstract This paper is concerned with the situation that occurs in claims reserving when there are negative values in the development triangle of incremental claim amounts. Typically these negative values will be the result of salvage recoveries, payments from third parties, total or partial cancellation of outstanding claims due to initial overestimation of the loss or to a possible favorable jury decision in favor of the insurer, rejection by the insurer, or just plain errors. Some of the traditional methods of claims reserving, such as the chain-ladder technique, may produce estimates of the reserves even when there are negative values. However, many methods can break down in the presence of enough (in number and/or size) negative incremental claims if certain constraints are not met. Historically the chain-ladder method has been used as a gold standard (benchmark) because of its generalized use and ease of application. A method that improves on the gold standard is one that can handle situations where there are many negative incremental claims and/or some of these are large. This paper presents a Bayesian model to consider negative incremental values, based on a three-parameter log-normal distribution. The model presented here allows the actuary to provide point estimates and measures of dispersion, as well as the complete distribution for outstanding claims from which the reserves can be derived. It is concluded that the method has a clear advantage over other existing methods. A Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation is applied using the package WinBUGS.
Hyaline Fibromatosis Syndrome inducing mutations in the ectodomain of anthrax toxin receptor 2 can be rescued by proteasome inhibitors

Hyaline Fibromatosis Syndrome (HFS) is a human genetic disease caused by mutations in the anthrax toxin receptor 2 (or cmg2) gene, which encodes a membrane protein thought to be involved in the homeostasis of the extracellular matrix. Little is known about the structure and function of the protein or the genotype–phenotype relationship of the disease. Through the analysis of four patients, we identify three novel mutants and determine their effects at the cellular level. Altogether, we show that missense mutations that map to the extracellular von Willebrand domain or the here characterized Ig‐like domain of CMG2 lead to folding defects and thereby to retention of the mutated protein in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER). Mutations in the Ig‐like domain prevent proper disulphide bond formation and are more efficiently targeted to ER‐associated degradation. Finally, we show that mutant CMG2 can be rescued in fibroblasts of some patients by treatment with proteasome inhibitors and that CMG2 is then properly transported to the plasma membrane and signalling competent, identifying the ER folding and degradation pathway components as promising drug targets for HFS.
Estimating Feedback Effect in Technical Change: A Frontier Approach

This study examines whether today’s technical change depends on yesterday’s technical change. We propose to investigate this feedback effect by using the technical-change component of the Malmquist productivity index. This approach can overcome some problems in alternative patent-citation approaches. We apply the approach by estimating the feedback effect from production data of 25 OECD countries for 1980 through 1997. Our model yields evidence on a positive feedback effect with delays up till eight years. These findings are in line with patent-citation studies and bring us closer to a measure of the social returns to R&D.
Sequential Unipolar Strength‐Interval Curves and Conduction Times during Myocardial Ischemia and Reperfusion in the Dog

Computerized techniques were employed to generate alternating anodal and cathodal or sequential anodal strength-interval curves during and following 15-minute coronary artery ligations in 14 anesthetized dogs. The right atrium was paced at 2.5 Hz, and unipolar ventricular strengthinterval curves with simultaneous conduction times were recorded every 45-120 seconds during ischemia and reperfusion. Within 1-2 minutes of ligation, anodal midcurve and late diastolic thresholds fell sharply, and cathodal thresholds fell slightly or changed little. After 5 minutes of ischemia, anodal thresholds remained low, cathodal thresholds rose, and conduction times increased. At 10–15 minutes of ligation, if the ischemic zone was small, anodal thresholds were low, often approaching cathodal values, and conduction returned toward control values. When the ischemic zone was large, unipolar thresholds and conduction times increased late during the ligation period. Throughout the course of ischemia, the falling limb of the strength-interval curve shifted progressively to the left indicating shorter refractory periods. Following abrupt reperfusion, anodal phase 3 dips promptly reappeared; refractory periods returned toward control, and supernormal conduction was noted. By 3-5 minutes of reperfusion, the falling limb of the strength-interval curve had shifted to the right of control and conduction times increased. Thus, vulnerability to arrhythmias during early ischemia (i.e., 5 minutes) is characterized by low anodal midcurves and late diastolic thresholds, short refractory periods, and slow conduction. During the first minute of reperfusion, anodal excitability is increased during the early dip and conduction times are supernormal. Increases in anodal excitability correlate better with the peak incidence of early ligation and reperfusion arrhythmias than do changes in cathodal excitability.
Simulations of thermally broadened H i Ly α absorption arising in the warm-hot intergalactic medium

Recent far-ultraviolet (FUV) absorption line measurements of low-redshift quasars have unveiled a population of intervening broad Hi Ly α absorbers (BLAs) with large Doppler parameters (b ≥ 40 km s -1 ). If the large width of these lines is dominated by thermal line broadening, the BLAs may trace highly-ionized gas in the warm-hot intergalactic medium (WHIM) in the temperature range T ≈ 10 5 -10 6 K, a gas phase that is expected to contain a large fraction of the baryons at low redshift. In this paper we use a hydrodynamical simulation to study frequency, distribution, physical conditions, and baryon content of the BLAs at z ≈ 0. From our simulated spectra we derive a number of BLAs per unit redshift of (dN/dz) BLA ≈ 38 for HI absorbers with log (N(cm -2 )/b(km s -1 )) > 10.7, b > 40 km s -1 , and total hydrogen column densities N(H II) < 10 20.5 cm -2 . The baryon content of these systems is Ω b (BLA) = 0.0121 h 65 -1 , which represents ∼25 percent of the total baryon budget in our simulation. Our results thus support the idea that BLAs represent a significant baryon reservoir at low redshift. BLAs predominantly trace shock-heated collisionally ionized WHIM gas at temperatures log T ≈ 4.4-6.2. About 27 percent of the BLAs in our simulation originate in the photoionized Ly a forest (log T < 4.3) and their large line widths are determined by non-thermal broadening effects such as unresolved velocity structure and macroscopic turbulence. Our simulation implies that for a large-enough sample of BLAs in FUV spectra it is possible to obtain a reasonable approximation of the baryon content of these systems solely from the measured H I column densities and b values.
Non-cardiac chest pain and benign palpitations in the cardiac clinic.

OBJECTIVES--To assess the characteristics of consecutive patients referred from general practice with the presenting disorder of chest pain or palpitations, and to determine the outcome at six months and three years. SETTING--A single consultant teaching hospital cardiac clinic receiving new referrals from a health district. DESIGN--94 consecutive referrals by general practitioners to a cardiac clinic with the presenting disorder of chest pain or palpitations were assessed at first attendance (research interview, cardiologists' ratings, systematic medical case note information), home interview six months later, and by a postal questionnaire at three years. OUTCOME MEASURES--Physical and psychological symptoms, limitation of activities, satisfaction with care, and use of health care resources. RESULTS--39 patients were given a cardiac diagnosis and 51 patients were not given a cardiac or other major physical diagnosis. The non-cardiac group was more likely to be young women, and to report other physical symptoms and previous psychiatric problems. The cardiac and non-cardiac groups reported progressive improvement in presenting symptoms and disability at the six months and three year follow up, but little change in mental state. Even so, three quarters of the non-cardiac subjects described continuing limitation of activities, concern about the cause of their symptoms, and dissatisfaction with medical care. CONCLUSIONS--A substantial proportion of the consecutive referrals continued to describe symptoms and disability throughout the three years after clinic attendance. Outcome was poor for those who had negative investigations and were reassured that they had no cardiac disorder or other serious physical finding. These results have implications for defining the role of psychological assessment and for the formulation of cost effective clinical measures to (a) minimise disability associated with cardiac disorder; and (b) prevent and treat handicaps in those without major physical diagnoses.
Audio event classification using deep neural networks

We present in this paper our work on audio event classification for outdoor events. As the main classification method we employ a deep neural network (DNN) and compare this to other classification methods. We propose a novel improvement to the pre-training process of the network which is useful when training with Gaussian data. Our experimental results are based on an audio corpus extracted from the FreeSound.org website repository. We show that the DNN has some advantage over other classification methods and that fusion of two methods can produce the best results.
Examination of Isentropic Circulation Response to a Doubling of Carbon Dioxide Using Statistical Transformed Eulerian Mean

Responses of the atmospheric circulation to a doubling of CO2 are examined in a global climate model, focusing on the circulation on both dry and moist isentropes. The isentropic circulations are reconstructed using the statistical transformed Eulerian mean (STEM), which approximates the isentropic flow from the Eulerian-mean andsecond-ordermoments.Thisapproachalsomakesitpossibletodecomposethechangesin the circulation into changes in zonal mean and eddy statistics. It is found that, as a consequence of CO2 doubling, the dry isentropic circulation weakens across all latitudes. The weaker circulation in the tropics is a result of the reduction in mean meridional circulation while the reduction in eddy sensible heat flux largely contributes to the slowdown of the circulation in the midlatitudes.Theheattransporton dryisentropes,however,increasesin thetropicsbecauseoftheincreasein dry effective stratification whereas it decreases in the extratropics following the reduction in eddy sensible heat transport. Distinct features are found on moist isentropes. In the tropics, the circulation weakens, but without much change in heat transport. The extratropical circulation shifts poleward with an intensification (weakening) on the poleward (equatorward) flank, primarily because of the change in eddy latent heat transport. The total heat transport in the midlatitudes also shows a poleward shift but is of smaller magnitude. The differences between the dry and moist circulations reveal that in a warming world the increase in midlatitude eddy moisture transport is associatedwith an increase in warm moist air exported from the subtropics into the midlatitude storm tracks.
The Expectations view on fiscal policy - An experiment using real world data

To understand the effect of fiscal policy on the private sector we have to comprehend how expectations about fiscal variables are formed. However, little is known about the way people form expectations about fiscal variables: no undercutting theory exists, not to say empirical evidence. The problem is that “expectations are unobservable” (Bertola and Drazen [BD93, p.16]). We generate observable expectations using a combination of laboratory experiments and real world data from several European countries. Based upon these observable expectations we develop a model of formation of expectations. We fit real world data and study the effect of fiscal policies. We show that we can study the relationship between private consumption and government consumption.
Event Detection with Zero Example: Select the Right and Suppress the Wrong Concepts

Complex video event detection without visual examples is a very challenging issue in multimedia retrieval. We present a state-of-the-art framework for event search without any need of exemplar videos and textual metadata in search corpus. To perform event search given only query words, the core of our framework is a large, pre-built bank of concept detectors which can understand the content of a video in the perspective of object, scene, action and activity concepts. Leveraging such knowledge can effectively narrow the semantic gap between textual query and the visual content of videos. Besides the large concept bank, this paper focuses on two challenges that largely affect the retrieval performance when the size of the concept bank increases: (1) How to choose the right concepts in the concept bank to accurately represent the query; (2) if noisy concepts are inevitably chosen, how to minimize their influence. We share our novel insights on these particular problems, which paves the way for a practical system that achieves the best performance in NIST TRECVID 2015.
Selectively Reduced Intracellular Proliferation of Salmonella enterica Serovar Typhimurium within APCs Limits Antigen Presentation and Development of a Rapid CD8 T Cell Response1

Ag presentation to CD8+ T cells commences immediately after infection, which facilitates their rapid expansion and control of pathogen. This paradigm is not followed during infection with virulent Salmonella enterica serovar Typhimurium (ST), an intracellular bacterium that causes mortality in susceptible C57BL/6J mice within 7 days and a chronic infection in resistant mice (129 × 1SvJ). Infection of mice with OVA-expressing ST results in the development of a CD8+ T cell response that is detectable only after the second week of infection despite the early detectable bacterial burden. The mechanism behind the delayed CD8+ T cell activation was evaluated, and it was found that dendritic cells/macrophages or mice infected with ST-OVA failed to present Ag to OVA-specific CD8+ T cells. Lack of early Ag presentation was not rescued when mice or dendritic cells/macrophages were infected with an attenuated aroA mutant of ST or with mutants having defective Salmonella pathogenicity island I/II genes. Although extracellular ST proliferated extensively, the replication of ST was highly muted once inside macrophages. This muted intracellular proliferation of ST resulted in the generation of poor levels of intracellular Ag and peptide-MHC complex on the surface of dendritic cells. Additional experiments revealed that ST did not actively inhibit Ag presentation, rather it inhibited the uptake of another intracellular pathogen, Listeria monocytogenes, thereby causing inhibition of Ag presentation against L. monocytogenes. Taken together, this study reveals a dichotomy in the proliferation of ST and indicates that selectively reduced intracellular proliferation of virulent pathogens may be an important mechanism of immune evasion.
Economic evaluation of a workplace intervention for sick-listed employees with distress

Objectives To evaluate the cost effectiveness, cost utility and cost benefit of a workplace intervention compared with usual care for sick-listed employees with distress. Methods An economic evaluation was conducted alongside a randomised controlled trial. Employees with distress and who were sick-listed for 2–8 weeks were randomised to a workplace intervention (n=73) or to usual care (n=72). The workplace intervention is a stepwise process involving the sick-listed employee and their supervisor, aimed at formulating a consensus-based plan for return to work (RTW). The effect outcomes were lasting RTW and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Healthcare utilisation was measured over 12 months. Cost effectiveness analyses (CEA) and cost utility analyses (CUA) were conducted from the societal perspective and cost benefit analyses (CBA) from the employer perspective. Bootstrapping techniques were used to estimate cost and effect differences, related CIs, and cost effectiveness and cost utility ratios. Cost effectiveness planes were presented and subgroup analyses were performed. Results CEA and CUA revealed no statistically significant differences in lasting RTW, QALYs or costs. The CBA indicated a statistically significant higher cost of occupational health services in the workplace intervention group. The workplace intervention was not cost effective according to the CEA, CUA and CBA. Conclusions Widespread implementation of the workplace intervention for sick-listed employees with distress is not recommended because there was no economic benefit compared with usual care. Future trials should confirm if the workplace intervention is cost effective for the subgroup employees who intended to return to work despite symptoms. This trial has been registered at the Dutch National Trial Register ISRCTN92307123.
Reserve Currency Allocation: An Alternative Methodology

This paper provides a quantitative framework for choosing the composition of reserve currencies. Assuming that the central bank's performance objectives are defined in terms of ex post returns in different currency numeraires, the currency allocation problem is formulated as a multi-objective optimisation problem. The advantage of the proposed methodology is that it does not require any explicit assumptions about the risk preferences of the central bank or knowledge of the currency numeraire. Using some proxy values for the possible range of ex post returns measured in different currency numeraires, the study shows how the currency allocation problem can be solved. In particular, the proposed method borrows the concept of the degree of satisfaction from fuzzy decision theory and maximises such a function defined on the least favourable return outcome. In this sense, the proposed method differs from standard utility-based approaches which look for solutions that are best on average. The results of the study indicate that central banks on average are dollar-based investors on the basis of current allocations. Further, the study also indicates that if central banks consider an ex post return profile that safeguards the purchasing power of the reserves, then the currency distribution of reserves should more closely resemble the SDR basket.
Visual Chess Recognition

In this paper, we correctly detect and identify a chessboard and the configuration of its pieces through the application of image processing. While more technically challenging, the use of image processing to detect and identify a chessboard and the configuration of its pieces avoids the need for a digital chess set. Furthermore, image-based detection of chess pieces is a vital step in building chess-playing robots.
Long-Term Antioxidant Administration Attenuates Mineralocorticoid Hypertension and Renal Inflammatory Response

We previously reported increased monocyte/macrophage infiltration, reactive oxygen species accumulation, and nuclear factor-&kgr;B (NF-&kgr;B) activation in mineralocorticoid (deoxycorticosterone acetate [DOCA]) hypertensive rats. We tested the hypothesis that prolonged antioxidant administration inhibits superoxide accumulation, lowers blood pressure, and reduces NF-&kgr;B activation in DOCA-salt hypertensive rats. DOCA rats exhibited a significant increase in systolic blood pressure compared with sham rats. Aortic rings from DOCA rats exhibited increased superoxide (O2−) production compared with sham rats. In addition, the treatment of DOCA rats with pyrrolidinedithiocarbamate (PDTC) or 4-hydroxy-2,2,6,6-tetramethyl piperidinoxyl (Tempol) caused a significant decrease in systolic blood pressure and aortic superoxide accumulation. Monocyte/macrophage infiltration was also significantly decreased in DOCA rats treated with PDTC or Tempol compared with untreated DOCA rats. NF-&kgr;B–binding activity was significantly greater in untreated DOCA rats than in either sham rats or PDTC- or Tempol-treated DOCA rats. Also, DOCA rats treated with Tempol exhibited no significant difference in NF-&kgr;B–binding activity compared with sham. These results suggest that antioxidants attenuate systolic blood pressure, suppress renal NF-&kgr;B–binding activity, and partly alleviate renal monocyte/macrophage infiltration in DOCA-salt hypertension.
Energy Distribution of Individual Quasars from Far-Ultraviolet to X-Rays. I. Intrinsic Ultraviolet Hardness and Dust Opacities

Using Chandra and HST archival data, we have studied the individual SED of 11 quasars at redshifts 0.3 < z < 1.8. All UV spectra show a spectral break around 1100 Å. Five X-ray spectra showed the presence of a "soft excess," and seven spectra showed an intrinsic absorption. We found that for most quasars a simple extrapolation of the far-UV power law into the X-ray domain generally lies below the X-ray data and that the big blue bump and the soft X-ray excess do not share a common physical origin. We explore the issue of whether the observed SED might be dust absorbed in the far- and near-UV. We fit the UV break, assuming a power law that is absorbed by cubic nanodiamond dust grains. We then explore the possibility of a universal SED (with a unique spectral index) by including further absorption from SMC-like extinction. Using this approach, satisfactory fits to the spectra can be obtained. The hydrogen column densities required by either nanodiamonds or amorphous dust models are all consistent, except for one object, with the columns deduced by our X-ray analysis, provided that the C depletion is ~0.6. Because dust absorption implies a flux recovery in the EUV (<700 Å), our modeling opens the possibility that the intrinsic quasar SED is much harder and more luminous in the EUV than inferred from the near-UV data, as required by photoionization models of the broad emission line region. We conclude that the intrinsic UV SED must undergo a sharp turnover before the X-ray domain.
Mass Spectrometry of an Intact Virus.

The simultaneous measurement of the time-of-flight and the number of charges on each electrosprayed ion provides a new way to determine the mass of a whole intact virus. The weights of an icosahedral virus (rice yellow mottle virus) consisting of a single-stranded RNA surrounded by a homogeneous protein shell with a mass of 6.5×106 Da, and a rod-shaped RNA virus (tobacco mosaic virus) with a mass of 40.5×106 Da were measured with this technique.