Predictors of middle school students self-efficacy in statistical literacy

Statistical literacy is an ability to critically interact with messages that contain statistical elements. In our information rich age, such literacy is becoming increasingly important. Theoretical models of statistical literacy suggest that in addition to some requisite statistical and mathematical knowledge, statistically literate citizens must possess certain dispositions, including curiosity and scepticism. It is argued that a focus on students’ self-efficacy in statistical literacy during their learning of statistical concepts will promote these dispositions. Accordingly, this study explores predictors of middle school students’ self-efficacy in statistical literacy. It commences with an examination of four theoretical sources of self-efficacy, including: prior mastery experiences, the vicarious experiences of others, verbal persuasion from significant others, and physiological states. The study then identifies variables that reflect some of these sources and from there builds a linear regression model to predict self-efficacy in this context. The study is based on data obtained from a representative sample of 425 middle school students, enrolled in schools from three Australian states. Predictor variables include students’ prior achievement, age, gender and their year level at school with respect to the primary/secondary transition. In order to explore the influence of the vicarious experiences of others, the study also considers frame specific self-concepts. More specifically it assesses students competency based beliefs with respect to an external frame of reference – comparison with peers – and their competency based beliefs with respect to an internal frame of reference – comparison with other subjects. Self-efficacy measures are based on students’ responses to a previously validated, nineitem self-efficacy scale analysed using the Rasch rating scale model. These variables were then used in series of linear regression equations to predict middle school students’ self-efficacy in statistical literacy. The results of the study indicate that middle school students’ self-efficacy beliefs in the statistical literacy context are influenced by their prior achievement in mathematics and to a lesser extent their age. In addition to this, external ability comparisons rather than internal comparisons of subject performance appear to predict self-efficacy, supporting the view that the vicarious experiences of others are a source of self-efficacy. Implications of these results are discussed in the paper. Introduction Many issues of concern to the general public require a rudimentary understanding of statistical concepts. Informed debate surrounding climate change, for example, requires knowledge of sampling variation. In order to equip our children with the skills necessary to make informed contributions to such debates, we need to ensure they are statistically literate, that is they should have the ability to interact critically with messages containing statistical elements (Gal, 2003). It is expected that the underlying concepts and skills for this literacy will be developed in the Statistics and Probability strand of the National Curriculum in Mathematics (Australian Curriculum Assessment and Reporting Authority, 2011), one of only three content strands. This curriculum mandates that children will encounter statistical and probabilistic concepts in each year of their school education up until the end of Year 10. Moreover, it recommends a cross-curricular approach to the teaching of numeracy, so it is expected that children should develop their statistical literacy in other subjects such as the social and natural sciences.