The Degree of Consensus among Economic Educators in a Transition Economy

ABSTRACT The question of consensus regarding important economic issues among economists has been studied for over 30 years in many countries with established market economies. The authors investigate the degree of agreement about such issues among economic educators in Belarus by adapting the survey previously used by American and Western European economists. The study specifically analyzes the differences in the views of the former participants of retraining programs vs. non-participants while also comparing them to a survey of U.S. economists. Several statistical measures designed to identify "consensus " are applied to analyze the results. The authors generally find disagreement within the economics profession in Belarus although they conclude that training in market economics principles results in a greater degree of consensus. KEYWORDS: consensus, economists' views, change of opinions, transition economy. JEL Code: A11 INTRODUCTION How much do economists disagree? Various researchers have explored this question over the years (Kearl, Pope, Whiting, & Wimmer, 1979; Frey, Pommerehne, Schneider, & Gilbert, 1984; Block & Walker, 1988; Frey & Eichenberger 1992; Ricketts & Shoesmith, 1992; Alston, Kearl, & Vaughan, 1992; Becker, Walstad, & Watts, 1994; Fuller & Geide-Stevenson, 2003). In a profession with different theoretical and ideological approaches and competing schools of thought some disagreement is inevitable, however, while disagreement among economists is a part of economic tradition, many studies have found that there is more agreement than disagreement among economists in Northern American and Western European countries. This paper adds another dimension to the existing research by examining whether economists from the countries that are in the process of establishing market economies have achieved a similar level of agreement. By replicating the survey of opinions from Alston et al. (1992) in Belarus, this paper attempts to answer the following research questions: What is the degree of consensus on economic issues among Belarusian economic educators? Did retraining programs in market economic principles shift these opinions? How do the results of the survey conducted in Belarus differ from the findings of the same survey among American economists? PREVIOUS RESEARCH ON CONSENSUS AMONG ECONOMISTS Over the last 30 years a number of studies have examined the areas of agreement and disagreement among economists over time and across countries. The first survey examined economic consensus on 30 propositions. Kearl, Pope, Whiting, and Wimmer (1979) used the criterion of relative entropy. They concluded that there is consensus among economists on most economic issues and found that 211 members of American Economic Association (AEA) tend to agree on "textbook" microeconomic and positively stated issues, but disagree about statements that involve macroeconomic concepts and have value judgments. Another study (F rey et al., 1984) analyzed the results of similar surveys conducted in France, Germany, Austria, and Switzerland and compared the responses to those from the USA. Although the results from each of the four European countries were different, the researchers found the least disagreement among economists regarding issues concerning the effectiveness of the price mechanism and the market system and that American, German, and Swiss economists tended to support typical "textbook" neoclassical propositions, while Austrian and French economists were more inclined to agree with broader government presence in the economy. Frey et al argued that possible causes for this disagreement could be different historical and cultural backgrounds. Canadian economists Block and Walker (1988) found that Canadian and U.S. economists have similar views on most propositions. In general, Canadian economists also tend to support the idea of effectiveness of the price mechanism in allocation, but they are less supportive of any "interventionist policy" by government than their American colleagues except in areas of government's redistributive role. …