Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Elicitation and Evaluation of Statistical Forecasts

This paper studies mechanisms for eliciting and evaluating statistical forecasts. Nature draws a state at random from a given state space, according to some distribution p. Prior to Nature’s move, an expert, who knows p, provides a forecast for a given statistic of p. The mechanism defines the expert’s payoff as a function of the forecast and the subsequently realized state. When the statistic is continuous with a continuum of values, I show that the payoffs that provide strict incentives to the expert exist if and only if the statistic partitions the set of distributions into convex subsets. When the underlying state space is finite, and the statistic is discrete with a finite number of values, these payoffs exist if and only if the partition forms a linear cross-section of a Voronoi diagram—a stronger condition than convexity. In both cases, the payoffs can be fully characterized essentially as weighted averages of base functions. I then analyze mechanisms with stronger properties. Finally I describe several applications. ∗Stanford University Graduate School of Business; email address: nlambert@stanford.edu. †I am deeply indebted to David Pennock and Yoav Shoham for their guidance and invaluable advice. I am also very grateful to Yahoo! Research, where I developed the early version of this work. I thank Google Research and the National Science Foundation (grant CCF-1101209) for their generous support. I am very grateful to Jeremy Bulow, Peter Cramton, Yossi Feinberg, Drew Fudenberg, David Kreps, John Langford, Mohammad Mahdian, Roger Myerson, Michael Ostrovsky, Philip Reny, Alvin Roth, Hugo Sonnenschein, Andrzej Skrzypacz, Balázs Szentes and Robert Wilson for their insightful comments. I thank the participants of the economics, computer science and operations research seminars at Chicago, Columbia GSB, Ecole Polytechnique, Harvard, MIT Sloan, NYU Stern, Stanford GSB, UC Berkeley and Wharton.
Using Cost-Related Medication Nonadherence to Assess Social and Health Policies.

An editorial is presented which addresses the author's views about the use of cost-related medication nonadherence as a means of examining health and social policies in America as of 2018, and it mentions other articles which appear in the same issue of the journal and deal with topics such as the U.S. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), hunger, and public health in America. Access to health care, financial hardship, and the U.S. Medicaid insurance program are assessed.
Validating the TeleStroke Mimic Score: A Prediction Rule for Identifying Stroke Mimics Evaluated Over Telestroke Networks

Background and Purpose— Up to 30% of acute stroke evaluations are deemed stroke mimics, and these are common in telestroke as well. We recently published a risk prediction score for use during telestroke encounters to differentiate stroke mimics from ischemic cerebrovascular disease derived and validated in the Partners TeleStroke Network. Using data from 3 distinct US and European telestroke networks, we sought to externally validate the TeleStroke Mimic (TM) score in a broader population. Methods— We evaluated the TM score in 1930 telestroke consults from the University of Utah, Georgia Regents University, and the German TeleMedical Project for Integrative Stroke Care Network. We report the area under the curve in receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis with 95% confidence interval for our previously derived TM score in which lower TM scores correspond with a higher likelihood of being a stroke mimic. Results— Based on final diagnosis at the end of the telestroke consultation, there were 630 of 1930 (32.6%) stroke mimics in the external validation cohort. All 6 variables included in the score were significantly different between patients with ischemic cerebrovascular disease versus stroke mimics. The TM score performed well (area under curve, 0.72; 95% confidence interval, 0.70–0.73; P<0.001), similar to our prior external validation in the Partners National Telestroke Network. Conclusions— The TM score’s ability to predict the presence of a stroke mimic during telestroke consultation in these diverse cohorts was similar to its performance in our original cohort. Predictive decision-support tools like the TM score may help highlight key clinical differences between mimics and patients with stroke during complex, time-critical telestroke evaluations.
Risk of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Spread Due to Sole Occupancy Authorities and Linked Cattle Holdings

Livestock movements in Great Britain are well recorded, have been extensively analysed with respect to their role in disease spread, and have been used in real time to advise governments on the control of infectious diseases. Typically, livestock holdings are treated as distinct entities that must observe movement standstills upon receipt of livestock, and must report livestock movements. However, there are currently two dispensations that can exempt holdings from either observing standstills or reporting movements, namely the Sole Occupancy Authority (SOA) and Cattle Tracing System (CTS) Links, respectively. In this report we have used a combination of data analyses and computational modelling to investigate the usage and potential impact of such linked holdings on the size of a Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) epidemic. Our analyses show that although SOAs are abundant, their dynamics appear relatively stagnant. The number of CTS Links is also abundant, and increasing rapidly. Although most linked holdings are only involved in a single CTS Link, some holdings are involved in numerous links that can be amalgamated to form “CTS Chains” which can be both large and geographically dispersed. Our model predicts that under a worst case scenario of “one infected – all infected”, SOAs do pose a risk of increasing the size (in terms of number of infected holdings) of a FMD epidemic, but this increase is mainly due to intra-SOA infection spread events. Furthermore, although SOAs do increase the geographic spread of an epidemic, this increase is predominantly local. Whereas, CTS Chains pose a risk of increasing both the size and the geographical spread of the disease substantially, under a worse case scenario. Our results highlight the need for further investigations into whether CTS Chains are transmission chains, and also investigations into intra-SOA movements and livestock distributions due to the lack of current data.
Patient reported outcome measures (PROMs): examination of the psychometric properties of two measures for burden of symptoms and quality of life in patients with depression or anxiety

Abstract Introduction: Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) for anxiety and depressive disorders are an important aspect of measurement-based care. Aim: The aim of the study was to perform a clinimetric analysis of two PROMs scales in patents with depression and anxiety. Methods: Patients completed a 10-item version (SCL-10) of the Symptom Checklist to measure burden of symptoms and a brief 5-item version of World Health Organization Well-being scale (WHO-5) to measure quality of life. T-scores were used to standardize the SCL-10 and WHO-5 in terms of being in need of treatment. The coefficient of alpha and the coefficient of homogeneity were used to evaluate the internal consistency or scalability respectively of SCL-10 and WHO-5. Effect size statistics and Spearman correlation coefficients were used to measure the effect of gender and age, respectively. Results: A total of 801 patients were recruited from two Danish mental health centers with anxiety or depression. The standardization of the SCL-10 and WHO-5 by T-scores indicated that a T-score of 65 corresponding to being moderately in need of treatment and a T-score of 75 to be severely in need of treatment. The coefficient of alpha and the coefficient of homogeneity were both found acceptable for SCL-10 and WHO-5. No gender or age factors were found being in operation. Conclusion: The results from the current study supported the use of the SCL-10 and WHO-5 as potential PROMs to capture symptom burden and quality of life within groups of people with anxiety or depression undergoing psychotherapy treatment.
Masked Repetition Priming Treatment for Anomia.

Purpose Masked priming has been suggested as a way to directly target implicit lexical retrieval processes in aphasia. This study was designed to investigate repeated use of masked repetition priming to improve picture naming in individuals with anomia due to aphasia. Method A single-subject, multiple-baseline design was used across 6 people with aphasia. Training involved repeated exposure to pictures that were paired with masked identity primes or sham primes. Two semantic categories were trained in series for each participant. Analyses assessed treatment effects, generalization within and across semantic categories, and effects on broader language skills, immediately and 3 months after treatment. Results Four of the 6 participants improved in naming trained items immediately after treatment. Improvements were generally greater for items that were presented in training with masked identity primes than items that were presented repeatedly during training with masked sham primes. Generalization within and across semantic categories was limited. Generalization to broader language skills was inconsistent. Conclusion Masked repetition priming may improve naming for some individuals with anomia due to aphasia. A number of methodological and theoretical insights into further development of this treatment approach are discussed.
Coagulation factor VIIa: prohemostatic drug and biomarker for thrombosis

Stollingsfactor VIIa: prohemostatisch medicijn en biomarker voor trombose Fysiologische activatie van de bloedstolling begint met de activatie van stollings factor VII tot factor VIIa. Een recombinante vorm van factor VIIa (rFVIIa) is ontwikkeld als medicijn om bloedstolling te stimuleren in patienten met een bloedingsneiging. rFVIIa is effectief in het behandelen en voorkomen van bloedingen in patienten met hemofilie die door remmende antistoffen niet meer met suppletie van factor VIII of IX behandeld kunnen worden. Het effect van rFVIIa op het voorkomen van bloedingen is lastig te verklaren, omdat de halfwaardetijd van rFVIIa ongeveer 2 uur is terwijl langere klinische effecten worden gezien bij een toediening van het medicijn 1x per dag. In het eerste deel van deze thesis hebben we onderzoek gedaan naar mogelijke mechanismes die het pro-hemostatische effect van rFVIIa kunnen verklaren. Onze studies suggereren dat het profylactische effect van rFVIIa verklaard kan worden door langdurige aanwezigheid van lage spiegels rFVIIa in plasma en door de aanwezigheid van lage concentraties rFVIIa in bloedplaatjes. Veneuze trombose is een complexe ziekte waar vele risicofactoren voor zijn vastgesteld. Het reizen per vliegtuig is bijvoorbeeld geassocieerd met een 2-4 keer verhoogde kans op het krijgen van veneuze trombose. Het is echter nog onbekend hoe stolselvorming wordt geactiveerd in het ontstaan van een veneuze trombose. Wij tonen aan dat activatie van de stolling tijdens een vliegreis waarschijnlijk niet, en activatie van de stolling in patienten met een acute veneuze trombose waarschijnlijk wel, verlopen via de extrinsieke (FVIIa-gemedieerde) stollingsroute.
A Benchmark of Globally-Optimal Anonymization Methods for Biomedical Data

Collaboration and data sharing have become core elements of biomedical research. At the same time, there is a growing understanding of privacy threats related to data sharing, especially when sensitive data from distributed sources become available for linkage. Statistical disclosure control comprises well-known data anonymization techniques that allow the protection of data by introducing fuzziness. To protect datasets from different types of threats, different privacy criteria are commonly implemented. Data anonymization is an important measure, but it is computationally complex, and it can significantly reduce the expressiveness of data. To attenuate these problems, a number of algorithms has been proposed, which aim at increasing data quality or improving efficiency. Previous evaluations of such algorithms lack a systematic approach, as they focus on specific algorithms, specific privacy criteria, and specific runtime environments. Therefore, it is difficult for decision makers to decide which algorithm is best suited for their requirements. As a first step towards a comprehensive and systematic evaluation of anonymity algorithms, we report on our ongoing efforts for providing an open source benchmark. In this contribution, we focus on optimal algorithms utilizing global recoding with full-domain generalization. We present a systematic evaluation of domain-specific algorithms and generic search methods for a broad set of privacy criteria, including k-anonymity, l-diversity, t-closeness and d-presence, and their use in multiple real-world datasets. Our results show that there is no single solution fitting all needs, and that generic search methods can outperform highly specialized algorithms.
Human Neuroscience

cortex exhibit increased activation to events that violate local temporal patterns of stimuli, even when those patterns arise because of random chance and even in the absence of explicit awareness (Squires et al., 1976; Huettel et al., 2002; Fan et al., 2007). Such fi ndings fi t the broad theory that the dorsal executive network detects environmental changes and implements cognitive processes necessary for modifying behavior appropriately (Wise et al. The resulting behavioral changes are postulated to refl ect biasing signals directed at other brain systems (Botvinick et al., 2001; Miller and Cohen, 2001). However, most prior studies of executive control have used tasks with co-occurring contingency changes and engagement of executive control mechanisms. Here, we adapted the classic two-option reversal-learning paradigm to dissociate multiple forms of contingency learning. Across a series of rapidly presented trials, the environmental contingencies changed in three independent ways: (1) changes in outcome valence, which resulted in a behavioral change on the next trial; (2) changes in outcome magnitude, which affected obtained rewards but did not produce a behavioral change; and (3) changes in the physical effect of an action, through new visual feedback that was completely unrelated to rewards or required actions. We hypothesized that brain areas previously implicated in learning and responding to changes in action-outcome contingencies also process contingency changes that are behaviorally and motivationally irrelevant.
The prevalence of iron deficiency anemia in pregnant women in Nakhonsawan, Thailand.

OBJECTIVE To determine the prevalence of iron deficiency anemia in pregnant women and the prevalence of thalassemia in both the anemic and non-anemic group. MATERIAL AND METHOD At the first antenatal visit, blood was obtained for complete blood count. If hemoglobin < 11 g/dl or hematocrit < 33%, serum ferritin was performed. The authors used definition of anemia from CDC and WHO to determine the prevalence of anemia in pregnant women. Iron deficiency anemia was defined by anemia from CDC or WHO criteria in accordance with serum ferritin less than 30 mg/L. Cases of abnormal thalassemia screening were followed by hemoglobin electrophoresis and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for diagnosis of alpha thalassemia 1 (SEA and Thai-deletion type). The data was analyzed by descriptive fashion and presented as mean, percentage, and standard deviation. RESULTS Five hundred nineteen pregnant women were recruited. The prevalence of anemia from WHO (Hemoglobin < 11 g/ dl), WHO (Hematocrit < 33%), and CDC criteria were 14.1, 9.8, and 10.6% respectively. The prevalence of iron deficiency anemia was 6.0, 4.6, and 4.8% in the same order. The prevalence of thalassemia was 39.7% in the anemic group and 24.4% in the non-anemic group. CONCLUSION The WHO criteria (Hemoglobin < 11 g/dl) gave the highest prevalence of anemia and iron deficiency anemia during pregnancy (14.1% and 6.0%). The prevalence of thalassemia in the anemic group (39.7%) was higher than non-anemic group (24.4%).
Social network factors as mediators of mental health and psychological distress

Background: Although mental health (MH) is overall strongly associated with psychological distress (PD), this association is very weak for the sample with high PD. This relationship remains understudied. Aim: This study examines the association between MH and PD and whether this association is mediated by social network (SN) factors for individuals with high PD. Method: Data were taken from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia study (N = 756). MH was measured using the MH sub-scale of the general health survey (Short Form (SF)-36) and PD was measured using the Kessler Psychological Distress Scale (K10). The SN measures were derived from the self-completion questionnaire. Using bootstrap mediation analysis, we tested whether the association between MH and PD is mediated by SN factors. Result: The correlation between MH and PD was r = −. 410 (p < .001). The mediational analysis results show that social isolation mediates the association between MH and PD with an indirect effect of β = −0.0070 (confidence interval (CI) = −0.0133 to −0.0023). Moreover, social connections also mediated the association between MH and PD with an indirect effect of β = −0.0073 (CI = −0.0141 to −0.0028). Conclusion: This study has practical implications for the design of social policies that attempt to reduce social isolation and enhance social connectedness to protect MH.
The Crowd is the Territory: Assessing Quality in Peer-Produced Spatial Data During Disasters

ABSTRACT Today, disaster events are mobilizing digital volunteers to meet the data needs of those on the ground. One form of this crowd work is Volunteered Geographic Information. This peer-produced spatial data creates the most up-to-date map of the affected region; maintaining the accuracy of these data is therefore a critical task. Accuracy is one aspect of data quality, a relative concept requiring standards to measure against. The field of Geographic Information Sciences has developed standards for this comparison, achieving widespread acceptance. However, the peer production model of spatial data presents new opportunities—and challenges—to traditional methods of quality assessment. Through analysis of the OpenStreetMap database, we show that temporal editing patterns and contributor characteristics can provide additional means of understanding spatial data quality. Drawing upon experiences from Wikipedia, we offer and evaluate three intrinsic quality metrics of peer-produced spatial data to assess the quality of contributions to OpenStreetMap for crisis response.
The Role of Osteopenia in Oral Bone Loss and Periodontal Disease.

Osteoporosis and periodontitis are diseases which affect a large number of women and men, with incidence increasing with advancing age. Osteopenia is a reduction in bone mass due to an imbalance between bone resorption and formation, favoring resorption, resulting in demineralization and leading to osteoporosis. Osteoporosis is a disease characterized by low bone mass and fragility and a consequent increase in fracture risk. Periodontitis is characterized by inflammation of the supporting tissues of the teeth, resulting in resorption of the alveolar bone as well as loss of the soft tissue attachment to the tooth and is a major cause of tooth loss and edentulousness in adults. The relationship of osteopenia to oral bone loss and periodontal disease has been addressed in a limited number of studies. A review of current knowledge regarding this relationship is presented. Interpretation of the literature is complicated by the variety of methods used to assess osteopenia, oral bone mass, and periodontitis, as well as varying definitions of outcomes of interest. Results of a previously unpublished study are presented which suggest that severity of osteopenia is related to loss of alveolar crestal height and tooth loss in post-menopausal women. The literature on the relationship among these disorders is limited and points to the need for additional studies which thoroughly evaluate the influence of potential confounding factors to further define the relationship between low bone mineral density and periodontal disease in larger populations. Clearer understanding of this relationship may aid health care providers in their efforts to detect and prevent osteoporosis and periodontal disease. Increased dialogue among medical and dental professionals will be increasingly important in achieving and maintaining patients' optimal health. J Periodontol 1996;67:1076-1084.
Interaction between the serotonin transporter gene (5-HTTLPR), stressful life events, and risk of depression: a meta-analysis.

CONTEXT Substantial resources are being devoted to identify candidate genes for complex mental and behavioral disorders through inclusion of environmental exposures following the report of an interaction between the serotonin transporter linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR) and stressful life events on an increased risk of major depression. OBJECTIVE To conduct a meta-analysis of the interaction between the serotonin transporter gene and stressful life events on depression using both published data and individual-level original data. DATA SOURCES Search of PubMed, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases through March 2009 yielded 26 studies of which 14 met criteria for the meta-analysis. STUDY SELECTION Criteria for studies for the meta-analyses included published data on the association between 5-HTTLPR genotype (SS, SL, or LL), number of stressful life events (0, 1, 2, > or = 3) or equivalent, and a categorical measure of depression defined by the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (Fourth Edition) or the International Statistical Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision (ICD-10) or use of a cut point to define depression from standardized rating scales. To maximize our ability to use a common framework for variable definition, we also requested original data from all studies published prior to 2008 that met inclusion criteria. Of the 14 studies included in the meta-analysis, 10 were also included in a second sex-specific meta-analysis of original individual-level data. DATA EXTRACTION Logistic regression was used to estimate the effects of the number of short alleles at 5-HTTLPR, the number of stressful life events, and their interaction on depression. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated separately for each study and then weighted averages of the individual estimates were obtained using random-effects meta-analysis. Both sex-combined and sex-specific meta-analyses were conducted. Of a total of 14,250 participants, 1769 were classified as having depression; 12,481 as not having depression. RESULTS In the meta-analysis of published data, the number of stressful life events was significantly associated with depression (OR, 1.41; 95% CI,1.25-1.57). No association was found between 5-HTTLPR genotype and depression in any of the individual studies nor in the weighted average (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.98-1.13) and no interaction effect between genotype and stressful life events on depression was observed (OR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.94-1.10). Comparable results were found in the sex-specific meta-analysis of individual-level data. CONCLUSION This meta-analysis yielded no evidence that the serotonin transporter genotype alone or in interaction with stressful life events is associated with an elevated risk of depression in men alone, women alone, or in both sexes combined.