Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Forecasting World Output: The Rising Importance of Emerging Economies

Assessing the global economic outlook is a fundamentally important task of international financial institutions, governments and central banks. In this paper we focus on the consequences of the rapid growth of emerging markets for monitoring and forecasting the global outlook. Our main results are that (i) the rise of the emerging countries has sharply altered the correlation of growth rates among the main economic areas; (ii) this is clearly detectable in forecasting equations as a structural break occurring in the 1990s; (iii) hence, inferences on global developments based solely on the industrialized countries are highly unreliable; (iv) the otherwise cumbersome task of monitoring many i? ½ and less studied i? ½ countries can be tackled by resorting to very simple bridge models (BM); (v) BM performance is in line with that of the most widely quoted predictions (WEO, Consensus) both before and during the recent crisis; (vi) for some emerging economies, BMs would have provided even better forecasts during the recent crisis.
Stochastic Simulations Suggest that HIV-1 Survives Close to Its Error Threshold

The use of mutagenic drugs to drive HIV-1 past its error threshold presents a novel intervention strategy, as suggested by the quasispecies theory, that may be less susceptible to failure via viral mutation-induced emergence of drug resistance than current strategies. The error threshold of HIV-1, , however, is not known. Application of the quasispecies theory to determine poses significant challenges: Whereas the quasispecies theory considers the asexual reproduction of an infinitely large population of haploid individuals, HIV-1 is diploid, undergoes recombination, and is estimated to have a small effective population size in vivo. We performed population genetics-based stochastic simulations of the within-host evolution of HIV-1 and estimated the structure of the HIV-1 quasispecies and . We found that with small mutation rates, the quasispecies was dominated by genomes with few mutations. Upon increasing the mutation rate, a sharp error catastrophe occurred where the quasispecies became delocalized in sequence space. Using parameter values that quantitatively captured data of viral diversification in HIV-1 patients, we estimated to be substitutions/site/replication, ∼2–6 fold higher than the natural mutation rate of HIV-1, suggesting that HIV-1 survives close to its error threshold and may be readily susceptible to mutagenic drugs. The latter estimate was weakly dependent on the within-host effective population size of HIV-1. With large population sizes and in the absence of recombination, our simulations converged to the quasispecies theory, bridging the gap between quasispecies theory and population genetics-based approaches to describing HIV-1 evolution. Further, increased with the recombination rate, rendering HIV-1 less susceptible to error catastrophe, thus elucidating an added benefit of recombination to HIV-1. Our estimate of may serve as a quantitative guideline for the use of mutagenic drugs against HIV-1.
Effects of macrophage‐CSF on pulmonary‐macrophage repopulation after bone marrow transplantation

Pulmonary infections are important causes of morbidity and mortality in immunosuppressed patients after transplantation. After experimental irradiation and syngeneic bone marrow transplantation in mice, macrophages show reduced repopulation in the lung compared with that in other tissues. Macrophages are major microbicidal immune effector cells in host pulmonary defense. Therefore, we examined the role of locally applied cytokines for macrophage repopulation in the lung. An accelerated repopulation of macrophages in the lung was observed after intranasal application of macrophage‐colony stimulating factor (M‐CSF), but this effect was not enhanced by a combination of M‐CSF with interleukin (IL)‐3. Local proliferation contributed to this effect. Macrophages in the lung tissue of M‐CSF‐treated mice displayed greater secretion of IL‐6, whereas M‐CSF treatment did not enhance the gene expression of other macrophage‐specific chemokines. The role of M‐CSF treatment was determined in pulmonary murine cytomegalovirus infection using an irradiation/reconstitution model. The M‐CSF treatment had no effect on virus load in the lung tissue. However, phosphate‐buffered saline‐treated mice seemed to develop stronger inflammation after viral infection than M‐CSF‐treated mice. We conclude that local M‐CSF treatment modulates cellular inflammation in the lung during immunosuppression.
Fast adaptive estimation of log-additive exponential models in Kullback-Leibler divergence

We study the problem of nonparametric estimation of density functions with a product form on the domain $\triangle=\{( x_1, \ldots, x_d)\in \mathbb{R}^d, 0\leq x_1\leq \dots \leq x_d \leq 1\}$. Such densities appear in the random truncation model as the joint density function of observations. They are also obtained as maximum entropy distributions of order statistics with given marginals. We propose an estimation method based on the approximation of the logarithm of the density by a carefully chosen family of basis functions. We show that the method achieves a fast convergence rate in probability with respect to the Kullback-Leibler divergence for densities whose logarithm belongs to a Sobolev function class with known regularity. In the case when the regularity is unknown, we propose an estimation procedure using convex aggregation of the log-densities to obtain adaptability. The performance of this method is illustrated in a simulation study.
Spectral Energy Distributions of 3C 279 Revisited: BeppoSAX Observations and Variability Models

We present the BeppoSAX observations of 3C 279 performed simultaneously during 1997 January 13-23 with γ-ray pointings with EGRET on board the Compton Gamma Ray Observatory and optical observations at the Torino Observatory (1997 January 11-18). Infrared Space Observatory data close to this epoch are also available. We compare the derived spectral energy distribution (SED) with those obtained at all other epochs with adequate multiwavelength coverage. Simple spectral models fitted to the multiepoch SEDs suggest that changes in intensity can be ascribed mainly to the variation of the bulk Lorentz factor of the plasma in the jet.
Cosmological Parameters from the 2003 Flight of BOOMERANG

We present the cosmological parameters from the CMB intensity and polarization power spectra of the 2003 Antarctic flight of the BOOMERANG telescope. The BOOMERANG data alone constrain the parameters of the ΛCDM model remarkably well and are consistent with constraints from a multiexperiment combined CMB data set. We add LSS data from the 2dF and SDSS redshift surveys to the combined CMB data set and test several extensions to the standard model including running of the spectral index, curvature, tensor modes, the effect of massive neutrinos, and an effective equation of state for dark energy. We also include an analysis of constraints to a model that allows a CDM isocurvature admixture.
Poverty, Income Distribution and CGE Micro-Simulation Modelling: Does Individual Behaviour Matter?

This paper aims to contribute to the shared goal of assessing the distributional consequences of macroeconomic shocks and policies. It does so by looking into the domain of applicability of the different microsimulation approaches used at present in combination with macroeconomic CGE models. In this context, the microsimulation approach that is used is not always clearly defined and justified (Boccanfuso, Decaluwe et al. 2008). Frequently used approaches are illustrated here considering the distributional effects of the significant capital outflows faced by the Argentinean economy at the end of its Currency Board Regime. It is found that behavioral microsimulations, by accounting for the role of individuals’ heterogeneity on their employment status, allows us to throw light on significant distributional effects that other approaches do not allow us to see. However, the straightforward ‘non-parametric’ approach leads to distributional results not significantly different, consistently with Herault (2010) finding. Contrasting the existing approaches against Orcutt (1957) vision, a possible direction for future research is suggested.
Coastal Water Quality Impact of Stormwater Runoff from an Urban Watershed in Southern California

J O N G H O A H N , † S T A N L E Y B . G R A N T , * , † C R I S T I A N E Q . S U R B E C K , † P A U L M . D I G I A C O M O , ‡ N I K O L A Y P . N E Z L I N , § A N D S U N N Y J I A N G | Department of Chemical Engineering and Materials Science, Henry Samueli School of Engineering, University of California, Irvine, California 92697, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California 91109, Southern California Coastal Water Research Project, Westminster, California 92683, and Department of Environmental Health, Science, and Policy, School of Social Ecology, University of California, Irvine, California 92697
Declining Macro-Economic Uncertainty and the Cost of Equity Capital: Analysing the Pre-Emu Period in a Dynamic Setting

We analyze the effect of declining macro-economic risk to the country-wide cost of equity capital. Our empirical results indicate that the earnings capitalization rates derived from a standard equity valuation model increased especially in the EMU countries during the EMU convergence period. Corresponding increase was not observed in our control sample of non-EMU countries for the same period. The results suggest that part of this increase was clearly due to the declining macroeconomic risks based on the explicit convergence criteria, especially for inflation and the public budget deficits.
Rhinitis Symptoms and Asthma among Parents of Preschool Children in Relation to the Home Environment in Chongqing, China

Risk factors for rhinitis and asthma in the home environment were studied by a questionnaire survey. Parents of 4530 1–8 year old children (one parent per child) from randomly selected kindergartens in Chongqing, China participated. 70.4% were females; 47.1% had rhinitis symptoms in the last three months (current rhinitis, CR); 1.6% reported a history of allergic asthma (AA); 2.7% reported a history of allergic rhinitis (AR); 16.4% were current smokers; 50.8% males and 2.4% females were current smokers. Stuffy odor, unpleasant odor, tobacco smoke odor and dry air were associated with CR (adjustment for gender, current smoking and other perceptions of odor or humidity). Associations between home environment and CR, AR, and AA were studied by multiple logistic regression analyses, adjusting for gender, current smoking and other significant home factors. Living near a main road or highway was a risk factor for both CR (OR(95%CI): 1.31(1.13,1.52)) and AR (OR(95%CI): 2.44(1.48,4.03)). Other risk factors for CR included living in rural areas (OR(95%CI): 1.43(1.10,1.85)), new furniture (OR(95%CI): 1.28(1.11,1.49)), water damage (OR(95%CI): 1.68(1.29,2.18)), cockroaches (OR(95%CI): 1.46(1.23,1.73)), and keeping pets (OR(95%CI): 1.24(1.04,1.49)). Other risk factors for AR included redecoration (OR(95%CI): 2.14(1.34,3.41)), mold spots (OR(95%CI): 2.23(1.06,4.68)), window pane condensation (OR(95%CI): 2.04(1.28,3.26)). Water damage was the only home factor associated with AA (2.56(1.34,4.86)). Frequently put bedding to sunshine was protective for CR (OR(95%CI): 0.79(0.68,0.92); cleaning every day was protective for AR (OR(95%CI): 0.40(0.22,0.71)). In conclusion, parents' CR and AR were related to a number of factors of the home environment.
Clinical activity of abiraterone acetate in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer progressing after enzalutamide.

BACKGROUND Abiraterone acetate and enzalutamide both improve outcomes in patients with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Optimal sequencing for these agents and whether cross-resistance occurs is unknown. METHODS Multicentre review of patients with mCRPC treated with abiraterone acetate and prednisone after progressing on enzalutamide. Primary objective was to determine abiraterone acetate response. RESULTS Thirty patients identified from four North American centres. At abiraterone initiation, median age was 70 years (56-84 years); 70% had ECOG performance status of 0-1; all had prior docetaxel. Median prior enzalutamide treatment duration was 41 weeks (6-95 weeks), with 70% (21 of 30) having a ≥30% prostate-specific antigen (PSA) decline. Median abiraterone acetate treatment duration was 13 weeks (1-52). No objective radiographic responses were observed. Median abiraterone time to progression (PSA, objective or symptomatic) was 15.4 weeks [95% confidence interval (CI) 10.7-20.2]. Median overall survival was 50.1 weeks (95% CI 28.3-72.0). Three patients had a ≥30% PSA decline with abiraterone. Two of these patients had PSA progression as best response with prior enzalutamide. CONCLUSIONS In this study of patients progressing after enzalutamide, treatment with abiraterone was associated with a modest response rate and brief duration of effect. Primary progression on enzalutamide may not preclude a response to abiraterone.
Controlled solder self-alignment sequence for an optoelectronic module without mechanical stops

A new flip-chip solder technology has been developed for the precision self-alignment of an optoelectronic module without using mechanical stops. A main feature of the technology is the controlled self-alignment sequence: the laser is aligned to a polymer waveguide in the lateral and vertical directions, then it slowly makes a contact with the waveguide in the axial direction. The elimination of the use of mechanical stops significantly simplifies the process. The axial distance between the laser and the waveguide is very small; it is determined by the edges and a tilt angle of 12/spl deg/. The lateral accuracy is less than 2 /spl mu/m.
The resource boom's underbelly: Criminological impacts of mining development

Australia is currently in the midst of a major resources boom. Resultant growing demands for labour in regional and remote areas have accelerated the recruitment of non-resident workers, mostly contractors, who work extended block rosters of 12-hour shifts and are accommodated in work camps, often adjacent to established mining towns. Serious social impacts of these practices, including violence and crime, have generally escaped industry, government and academic scrutiny. This paper highlights some of these impacts on affected regional communities and workers and argues that post-industrial mining regimes serve to mask and privatize these harms and risks, shifting them on to workers, families and communities.
Long-Term Risk of Acute Coronary Syndrome in Splenectomized Patients Due to Splenic Injury

AbstractWe aimed to assess the magnitude and duration of risk of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) associated with splenectomy for splenic injury.We identified 5139 splenectomized patients (the splenectomy cohort) to compare with 2 other cohorts for assessing the magnitude and risk of ACS: the first cohort comprising subjects without splenic injury and without splenectomy (control cohort), and the second cohort comprising nonsplenectomized patients with splenic injury (nonsplenectomy cohort; n = 6391). For each splenic injury patient (n = 11530), 4 control comparisons were frequency-matched by the year of index date, age, and sex (n = 46120). The adjusted risk of ACS was significantly higher in the splenectomy group than in the control group (2.08 vs 1.68 per 1000 person-years; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01–1.68). The sex-specific data showed that the adjusted HR for the splenectomy group, compared with the control group, was 1.29 in men (95% CI, 0.97–1.73) and 1.36 in women (95% CI, 0.79–2.33). The age-specific analyses failed to demonstrate a significantly higher adjusted HR of ACS in the splenectomized patients in any age subgroup, compared with their counterparts in the control group. Furthermore, no difference in the risk of ACS was detected between the splenectomy and nonsplenectomy cohorts within the splenic injury patients.In comparison with the control cohort, patients undergoing splenectomy for splenic injury exhibited an elevated risk of ACS.
EXPLORING THE DISK–JET CONNECTION FROM THE PROPERTIES OF NARROW-LINE REGIONS IN POWERFUL YOUNG RADIO-LOUD ACTIVE GALACTIC NUCLEI

We investigate the optical emission-line flux ratios of narrow-line regions in order to determine whether the formation of active galactic nucleus (AGN) jets requires specific accretion conditions. We find that bright compact radio galaxies, which are powerful radio galaxies in the early stage of the jet activity, exhibit systematically larger flux ratios of [O i]λ6300/[O iii]λ5007 and smaller flux ratios of [O iii]λ5007/[O iii]λ4363 than radio-quiet (RQ) Seyfert 2 galaxies. Comparing the observed line ratios with photoionization models, it is found that the difference in the flux ratio of low- to high-ionization lines (e.g., [O i]λ6300/[O iii]λ5007) can be well understood by the difference in the spectral energy distribution (SED) of ionizing sources. Powerful young radio-loud (YRL) AGNs favor SED without a strong big blue bump (BBB), i.e., a radiatively inefficient accretion flow (RIAF), while RQ AGNs are consistent with the models adopting SED with a strong BBB, i.e., a geometrically thin, optically thick disk. These findings imply that the formation of powerful AGN jets requires the accretion disk with harder ionizing SED (i.e., an RIAF). We discuss the obscuring structure of YRL AGNs as a plausible origin of the difference in flux ratios of [O iii]λ5007/[O iii]λ4363.
Dnmt3a Protects Active Chromosome Domains against Cancer-Associated Hypomethylation

Changes in genomic DNA methylation patterns are generally assumed to play an important role in the etiology of human cancers. The Dnmt3a enzyme is required for the establishment of normal methylation patterns, and mutations in Dnmt3a have been described in leukemias. Deletion of Dnmt3a in a K-ras–dependent mouse lung cancer model has been shown to promote tumor progression, which suggested that the enzyme might suppress tumor development by stabilizing DNA methylation patterns. We have used whole-genome bisulfite sequencing to comprehensively characterize the methylomes from Dnmt3a wildtype and Dnmt3a-deficient mouse lung tumors. Our results show that profound global methylation changes can occur in K-ras–induced lung cancer. Dnmt3a wild-type tumors were characterized by large hypomethylated domains that correspond to nuclear lamina-associated domains. In contrast, Dnmt3a-deficient tumors showed a uniformly hypomethylated genome. Further data analysis revealed that Dnmt3a is required for efficient maintenance methylation of active chromosome domains and that Dnmt3a-deficient tumors show moderate levels of gene deregulation in these domains. In summary, our results uncover conserved features of cancer methylomes and define the role of Dnmt3a in maintaining DNA methylation patterns in cancer.
Asymmetries in Inflation Expectation Formation Across Demographic Groups

Relying on University of Michigan data on consumers.in.ation expectations, we establish some stylized facts on the process of in.ation expectation formation across different demographic groups. Percentile time series models are employed to test for rationality and to study learning dynamics across the whole cross-sectional spectrum of responses. These display a significant degree of heterogeneity and asymmetry. Income, education, and gender seem to be rather important characteristics when forecasting inflation. In particular, high income, highly educated, and male agents produce lower mean squared errors. Moreover, socioeconomically "disadvantaged" respondents assume as a reference point their specific consumption basket, while more advantaged respondents actually observe the general price level. A common observation applying to all socioeconomic groups is that agents positioned around the center of the distribution behave roughly in line with the rational expectations hypothesis. Agents on the left hand side of the median (LHS) of the distribution update information very infrequently. As to agents on the right hand side of the median (RHS), we can affirm that their expectations are consistent with adaptive learning and staggered information updating. However, the speed of learning can vary significantly across percentiles and di¤erent demographic groups.
Economic implications of alternative scholarly publishing models : exploring the costs and benefits. JISC EI-ASPM Project. A report to the Joint Information Systems Committee (JISC)

A knowledge economy has been defined as: “…one in which the generation and exploitation of knowledge has come to play the predominant part in the creation of wealth. It is not simply about pushing back the frontiers of knowledge; it is also about the more effective use and exploitation of all types of knowledge in all manner of economic activities” (DTI 1998). In a knowledge economy, innovation and the capacity of the system to create and disseminate the latest scientific and technical information are important determinants of prosperity (David and Foray 1995; OECD 1997). Scholarly publishing plays a key role, as it is central to the efficiency of research and to the dissemination of research findings and diffusion of scientific and technical knowledge. But, advances in information and communication technologies are disrupting traditional models of scholarly publishing, radically changing our capacity to reproduce, distribute, control, and publish information. The key question is whether there are new opportunities and new models for scholarly publishing that would better serve researchers and better communicate and disseminate research findings (OECD 2005, p14).
The Propensity to Consume Income from Different Sources and Implications for Saving: An Application to Norwegian Farm Households

Traditionally, farm households have relatively high saving and low marginal propensity to consume (MPC). In the last decades, this seems to have changed. To investigate these matters, a dynamic consumption model is estimated using a GMM-system estimator and a panel of 258 Norwegian farm households followed from 1976-1997. The main findings are that the MPC of farm income is lower than for off-farm income and that average MPC is low but increasing over time in these households. This may imply that some of the observed reduction in farm saving is explained by reduced need for precautionary saving.