An analysis of strategic-military issues in the ending of Civil wars : a case study of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 1994 – 2004

iii LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS.v CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION.1 1. Identifying the research theme.1 1.1 Termination of wars.10 1.2 Research problem and objectives of the study.14 1.2.1 Why the DRC case study.16 1.3 Research methodology.18 1.4 Structure of the study.20 CHAPTER TWO: CLASSICAL MILITARY THEORY OF WAR . 24 2. Introduction.24 2.1 War and its primary objectives.25 2.1.1 The nature of war . 26 2.1.2 The nature of civil wars.32 2.1.3 Formulation of political objectives and strategy.35 2.2 The concept of victory in war.39 2.2.1 Tactics.41 2.3 Conclusion.49 CHAPTER THREE: CAUSES OF CIVIL WARS AND THEIR TERMINATION.51 3. Introduction . 51 3.1 Causes of civil wars. 51 3.1.1 Core causes.53 © University of Pretoria x i) Ethnic and religious divisions.53 ii) Economic causes.55 iii) Regime type.59 3.1.2 Proximate causes.63 i) The strategic environment.63 ii) Ideological issues . 65 iii) The level of literacy.66 iv) Negative interaction and power imbalance.67 v) Contagion and diffusion.68 3.2 Approaches to ending of civil wars.73 3.2.1 The transformation of tactical victory into strategic peace.74 3.2.2 Dealing with the military and political interests of parties.75 3.2.3 External intervention.81 3.2. 4 Negotiation and mediation.86 3.2. 5 Co-opting or neutralising militants.90 3.2. 6 Neutralising hatemongers.90 3.2. 7 Small wars approach.91 3.3 Conclusion.92 CHAPTER FOUR: UNDERSTANDING THE CAUSES OF THE WAR IN THE DRC.93 4. Introduction . 93 4.1 Defining the Great Lakes Region (GLR) . 93 4.1.1 A Common colonial past.94 4.1.2 A Common ethnic identity.95 4.1.3 Internecine conflicts.98 4.1.4 Regime weakness and economic interests . 99 4.1. 5 Economic decay.100 4.2 Causes of the civil wars in the DRC . 101 4.2.1 The core causes.102 i) The changes in the strategic global environment.102 © University of Pretoria xi ii) Global democratisation demands.104 iii) Ethnicity as a political tool.105 4.2.2 The proximate (external) causes of the DRC civil wars.112 i) The invasion of Zaire.113 4.3 Conclusion.117 CHAPTER FIVE: THE WARS IN THE DRC.119 5. Introduction.119 5.1 Rwanda’s political objectives and the first war (1996-1997). 119 5.1.1 Forceful return of refugees . 121 5.1.2 Revenge against the ex-FAR and Interahamwe.124 5.1.3 Overthrow of the Mobutu regime.127 5.2 Tactics used by Rwanda and its alliance.130 5.2.1 Gaining support of regional neighbours.131 5.2.2 Diplomatic offensive.132 5.2.3 Creation of a proxy.135 5.3 Change of objectives and the new scenario.136 5.4 The second war (1998 2002). 139 5.4.1 New actors, new objectives.142 5.4.2 Fragmentation of the proxy and the division of the DRC. 143 5.4.3 Natural resources as an economic motive . 146 5.5 Conclusion.149 CHAPTER SIX: ENDING THE CIVIL WARS IN THE DRC.152 6. Introduction . 152 6.1 The failure to transform tactical victory into strategic victory.153 6.2 The Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement (LCA) and the long march to peace (1999 2002) . 160 6.2.1 Inter-twined interests of states and their proxies.161 6.2.2 Interveners and interests in the war.165 6.2.3 The Lusaka Ceasefire Agreement.169 6.2. 4 Challenges to the ceasefire, and the stalemate.173 6.2. 5 The end of the stalemate.175 © University of Pretoria xii 6.2. 6 The Pretoria and Luanda peace agreements.176 6.3 The Inter-Congolese National Dialogue (ICND). 180 6.3.1 Power-sharing.186 6.3.2 Military issues.192 6.4 Conclusion.203 CHAPTER SEVEN: CONCLUSION.206 7. Findings of the study.206 7.1 Classical theory and the termination of civil wars in Africa.208 7.2 Military issues and the ending of civil wars in the DRC.212 7.3 Issues arising from the study.217 7.3.1 The importance of proximate causes.217 7.3.2 The role of proxy armed groups in civil wars.221 i) The first war.223 ii) The second war.224 7.3.3 Multiplicity of armed groups with varying interests.226 7.4 Lessons for the termination of civil wars in Africa.227 7.5 Recommendation for further research.229 APPENDIXES.230 Appendix I: The Pretoria Agreement (Between Rwanda and the DRC), July 3