Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Backtesting Stochastic Mortality Models

Abstract This study sets out a backtesting framework applicable to the multiperiod-ahead forecasts from stochastic mortality models and uses it to evaluate the forecasting performance of six different stochastic mortality models applied to English & Welsh male mortality data. The models considered are the following: Lee-Carter’s 1992 one-factor model; a version of Renshaw-Haberman’s 2006 extension of the Lee-Carter model to allow for a cohort effect; the age-period-cohort model, which is a simplified version of Renshaw-Haberman; Cairns, Blake, and Dowd’s 2006 two-factor model; and two generalized versions of the last named with an added cohort effect. For the data set used herein, the results from applying this methodology suggest that the models perform adequately by most backtests and that prediction intervals that incorporate parameter uncertainty are wider than those that do not. We also find little difference between the performances of five of the models, but the remaining model shows considerable forecast instability.
EMOTION RECOGNITION DEFICITS IN THE ELDERLY

In two studies, healthy elderly adults were poor at recognizing certain emotions. In study one, an emotion face morphed to express a new emotion. The elderly were impaired when recognizing anger and sadness, whereas no differences were found between the two age groups in recognizing fear or happiness, or in a task requiring reasoning about non=emotion stimuli. In study two, the elderly were impaired when judging which of two faces was more angry, sad, or fearful, but they were not impaired when judging other emotions or when judging which of two beakers was more full. The elderly were also impaired when matching emotion sounds to angry, sad, and disgusted faces, but not to other emotions and not when matching non-emotion (e.g., machine) sounds to machines. Elderly deficits were independent of performance on a task requiring basic face processing (gender recognition). Overall, the results provide support for an age-related decline in the recognition of some emotions that is independent of changes in perceptual abilities, processing speed, fluid IQ, basic face processing abilities, and reasoning- about non-face stimuli. Recognition of emotion stimuli might be mediated by regions of the brain that are independent from those associated with a more general cognitive decline
Measuring the Value of Social Dynamics in Online Product Ratings Forums

Extant research has shown that consumer online product ratings can significantly influence product sales. However, these ratings have also been shown to be subject to a number of social influences. In other words, posted product ratings not only reflect the customers’ experience with the product, but they also reflect the influence of others’ ratings. The objective of this paper is to model the arrival of posted product ratings in an effort to measure the impact of any social dynamics that may occur in the ratings environment on both subsequent rating behavior as well as product sales. Our modeling efforts are two fold. First, we model the arrival of product ratings and separate the effect of social influences from the underlying (or baseline) ratings behavior. Second, we model product sales as a function of posted product ratings. However, rather than simply modeling the effects of observed ratings, we decompose ratings into a baseline rating, the contribution of social influence and idiosyncratic error. From this model, we can measure the overall sales impact resulting from observed social dynamics. We consider both direct effects on sales as well as indirect effects that result from the influence of dynamics on future ratings (and thus future sales). We show that ratings behavior is significantly affected by previously posted ratings. We further show that the effect on sales resulting from this social dynamic is significant. With the increased popularity of online discussion and ratings forums, many marketers have been investing in efforts to moderate these conversations or to contribute comments of their own in order to create a more positive ratings environment. However, our results show that while these efforts can directly improve sales, the overall effect is relatively short-lived once indirect effects are considered.
Links between sex-related expectations about alcohol, heavy episodic drinking and sexual risk among young men in a shantytown in Lima, Peru.

CONTEXT Alcohol use is frequently identified as a contributor to risky sexual behaviors; however, research results are mixed. Given the conflicting evidence, researchers have focused on other factors, such as expectations about alcohol's effects that might help explain the relationship of alcohol use and risky sexual behaviors. METHODS Cross-sectional data from 312 sexually experienced males aged 18-30 in a shantytown in Lima, Peru, were used in logistic regression models to identify associations of heavy episodic drinking and sex-related expectations about alcohol with sexual risk behaviors. RESULTS Heavy episodic drinking was associated with having had two or more sexual partners and having had sex with a casual partner in the past year (odds ratios, 2.8 and 2.5, respectively). After controlling for alcohol consumption, sex-related expectations about alcohol were associated with these high-risk sexual behaviors, as well as with not using a condom at last sex (1.2) and not using a condom at last sex with a casual partner (1.3). CONCLUSION Beliefs about the effect of alcohol on sexual performance could help explain links between alcohol consumption and risky sexual behavior not completely accounted for by the pharmacological effects of alcohol.
A systematic review and empirical study investigating cognitive and social models of voice-hearing

52 Introduction . 53 Method . 55 Design . 55 Sample. 55 Measures . 55 Procedure . 57 Statistical Analysis . 58 Results . 59 Sample characteristics . 59 Main analyses . 59 Discussion . 61 Clinical Implications and Future Research . 63 References . 69 Paper 3: Critical Appraisal . 73 Introduction . 74 Paper 1: Systematic literature review. 74 Rationale for the topic . 74 Search terms and sets . 75 Inclusion and exclusion criteria . 76 Contacting authors . 77 Quality Assessment . 78 Synthesising data . 78 Clinical Implications and Future Research . 79 Paper 2: Empirical paper . 80 Development of the research question . 80 Voice Detection Task . 81 Stress paradigm . 82 Recruitment and the sample . 83 Analyses . 84 Clinical Implications and Future Research . 85 Appendices . 85 Personal reflections of the research process . 85 References . 88
Ubiquitous inference of mobility state of human custodian in people-centric context sensing

People-centric sensing using people's smartphones offers new research opportunities for large case studies. It presents many challenges, e.g., efficient capture of person's mobility, understanding of context changes and preservation of user privacy. We propose an accurate and energy-efficient method able to capture user's mobility, thus the context changes, while preserving his/her privacy. Our solution can be applied to systems that aim to efficiently sense context on smartphones to study large scale phenomena or perform location management.
Socioeconomic status, sex, age, and ethnicity as determinants of body fat distribution for Guatemalan children.

The distribution of subcutaneous fat at the triceps and subscapular skinfold sites is described for four groups of children living in Guatemala. These groups are high socioeconomic status (SES) children of Ladino (mixed Spanish and Indian) ancestry, high SES children of European ancestry, low SES Ladino children, and very low SES Indian children. The method of Healy and Tanner (1981) is used, employing regression and principal components analysis of log transformed skinfold values to divide "fatness" into two uncorrelated variables: size (amount of fat) and shape (fat pattern). Significant differences exist between groups in size, with lower SES groups having less fat than higher SES groups. No significant difference in fat pattern exists between the high SES Ladino and high SES European children. Significant differences do exist between the high SES groups and the low SES groups. The relative amount of subscapular fat increases from the high SES Ladinos and high SES Europeans, to the low SES Ladinos, to the very low SES Indians. In the high SES European and high SES Ladino samples, girls have significantly more arm fat than boys. There is no significant difference in fat patterning between boys and girls in the two low SES samples. Finally, the relative amount of subscapular fat tends to increase with age in all four samples. These results indicate that fatness and fat patterning are independent anatomical characteristics, SES influences fat patterning; low SES children of both Ladino and Indian ancestry show greater reductions in arm fat than in trunk fat compared to high SES children, sexual dimorphism in fat patterning is SES dependent. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
FIW – Working Paper Trade and Productivity : The Family Connection Redux

We investigate the effects of human capital accumulation on trade and productivity by integrating a micro-founded education and fertility decision of households into a model of international trade with firm heterogeneity. Our theoretical framework leads to two testable implications: i) the export share of a country increases with the education level of its population, ii) the average profitability of firms located in a country also increases with the education level of its population. We find that these implications are supported by empirical evidence for a panel of OECD countries from 1960 to 2010. JEL classification: F12, F14, I20, J11.
Performance Improvement of Proportional Directional Control Valves: Methods and Experiments

This paper studies local valve control of the electro-hydraulic system. The sluggish response of hydraulic control valve usually becomes the bottleneck of whole system performance. Although fast valves (e.g. high-bandwidth servo-valves) are available, they are far more expensive than slow valves (e.g. proportional directional control valves). To improve the performance of proportional directional control valves, three different types of controllers are synthesized. Firstly, based on the pole zero cancellation technique, an open loop compensator is designed which requires the accurate valve dynamic model information; Secondly, a full state feedback adaptive robust controller (ARC) is synthesized, which effectively takes into account the effect of parametric uncertainties and uncertain nonlinearities such as friction force and flow force. Finally, an output feedback ARC controller is synthesized to address the problem of unmeasurable states. Theoretically, the proposed ARC controllers guarantee a prescribed output tracking transient performance and final tracking accuracy while achieving asymptotic output tracking in the presence of parametric uncertainties. Comparative experimental results are obtained to show the advantages and limitations of each method.
Knocked out: Ritual disruption and the decline of Spanish boxing

Scholars have written extensively on the emergence of mass sports in modern industrial societies, and the factors that have facilitated the development of ‘hegemonic sports cultures’. Less has been written on how the structure and content of ‘national sport spaces’ change over time, and the reasons that certain sports cultures have failed to sustain their popular appeal amid processes of political, social and cultural transformation. This article analyses the sharp decline in the popularity of Spanish boxing during the 1970s and 1980s. In explaining this decline, we draw attention to a series of developments that disrupted rituals of spectatorship that were key to sustaining the sport’s fan base. Our findings highlight the importance of ritual to the reproduction of hegemonic sports cultures and identify ‘ritual disruption’ as a mechanism through which broad societal changes may alter the configuration of national sport spaces.
Nitric oxide in chronic airway inflammation in children: diagnostic use and pathophysiological significance

Background: The levels of exhaled and nasal nitric oxide (eNO and nNO) in groups of patients with inflammatory lung diseases are well documented but the diagnostic use of these measurements in an individual is unknown. Methods: The levels of nNO and eNO were compared in 31 children with primary ciliary dyskinesia (PCD), 21 with non-CF bronchiectasis (Bx), 17 with cystic fibrosis (CF), 35 with asthma (A), and 53 healthy controls (C) using a chemiluminescence NO analyser. A diagnostic receiver-operator characteristic (ROC) curve for PCD using NO was constructed. Results: The median (range) levels of nNO in parts per billion (ppb) in PCD, Bx, CF, and C were 60.3 (3.3–920), 533.6 (80–2053), 491.3 (31–1140), and 716 (398–1437), respectively; nNO levels were significantly lower in PCD than in all other groups (p<0.05). The median (range) levels of eNO in ppb in PCD, Bx, CF, A, and C were 2.0 (0.2–5.2), 5.4 (1.0–22.1), 2.6 (0.8–12.9), 10.7 (1.6–46.7), and 4.85 (2.5–18.3), respectively. The difference in eNO levels in PCD reached significance (p<0.05) when compared with those in Bx, A and C but not when compared with CF. Using the ROC curve, nNO of 250 ppb showed a sensitivity of 97% and a specificity of 90% for the diagnosis of PCD. Conclusions: eNO and nNO cannot be used diagnostically to distinguish between most respiratory diseases. However, nNO in particular is a quick and useful diagnostic marker which may be used to screen patients with a clinical suspicion of PCD.
Formation of shocks in higher-order nonlinear dispersion PDEs: nonuniqueness and nonexistence of entropy

It is shown that third-order 1D nonlinear dispersion equations admit single point gradient catastrophe, described by blow-up-type similarity solutions. After blow-up, the solutions admit shock wave-type self-similar extensions. Snce such extensions are not unique, this implies the principle nonuniqueness of shock-type solutions and also nonexistence of any entropy-type description of proper unique solutions. A difficult free-boundary setting, with extra conditions specified on shocks, are necessary to restore uniqueness in such problems.
Tracing New Urbanism’s Suburban Intervention in Minneapolis–St. Paul

New Urbanism (NU) is an urban planning movement that aims to curtail suburban sprawl. Critics argue that NU actually contributes to sprawl. However, such claims overlook the diverse ways in which NU is implemented. This article contributes to the study of suburban development by examining two different types of NU projects in suburban Minneapolis–St. Paul and comparing these with a control case. Using surveys of the projects’ built environments and residents’ travel behavior and attitudes toward neighbors, the article finds that the NU projects break away from the physical and functional dimensions of sprawl, yet reproduce the social dimensions.
Benchmark Dose of Lead Inducing Anemia at the Workplace

To estimate the critical dose of lead inducing anemia in humans, the effects of lead on hemoglobin (Hb) and hematocrit (Hct) levels and red blood cell (RBC) count were examined in 388 male lead‐exposed workers with blood lead (BPb) levels of 0.05–5.5 (mean 1.3) μmol/L by using the benchmark dose (BMD) approach. The BPb level was significantly related to Hb (regression coefficient β=–0.276), RBC (β=–11.35), and Hct (β=–0.563) among the workers (p < 0.001) when controlling for age and working status. The average BPb levels were significantly higher in the workers with anemia (1.85 μmol/L), based on the WHO criteria, than in those without anemia (1.26 μmol/L). The benchmark dose levels of BPb (i.e., lower 95% confidence limits of BMD), calculated from the K‐power model set at an abnormal probability of 5% in unexposed workers and an excess risk of 5% in exposed workers were estimated to be 0.94 μmol/L (19.5 μg/dl) for Hb, 0.94 μmol/L (19.4 μg/dl) for RBC, and 1.43 μmol/L (29.6 μg/dl) for Hct. These findings suggest that reduction in hematopoietic indicators may be initiated at BPbs below the level currently considered without effect.
Postprandial hyperglycemia is a better predictor of the progression of diabetic retinopathy than HbA1c in Japanese type 2 diabetic patients.

It is well known that postchallenge and postprandial hyperglycemia are related to the progression of diabetic macroangiopathy (1–6). However, there is little information regarding the association between diabetic microangiopathy and postprandial hyperglycemia in human subjects. In this study, we performed a follow-up study to elucidate the relationship between diabetic retinopathy and postprandial glycemia or insulinemia. We recruited 151 Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes (74 men, aged 58.1 ± 10.2 years, and 77 women, aged 57.9 ± 9.2 years) who were admitted to Osaka Prefectural General Hospital between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 1999. The mean …
A Dynamic Model of Aspectual Composition

This paper describes results of a dynamic model of aspectual composition that demonstrates how features necessary for planning and controlling actions can also motivate and ground simple analyses of a number of as-pectual phenomena. A novel feature of the model is an active computational representation for verb semantics called x-schemas , an extension of the Petri net formalism that can encode goals, resources and other features a(cid:11)ecting aspect. Vexing problems of aspectual composition lend themselves to simple analyses in terms of the context-sensitive interaction between verb-speci(cid:12)c x-schemas and a controller x-schema that captures important regularities in the evolution of events. The resulting x-schemas can be elaborated and constrained by such factors as tense, temporal modi(cid:12)ers, nominals and pragmatic context, providing a rich representation that supports simulative inference in language understanding.
A Multicentre Prospective Evaluation of the Impact of Renal Insufficiency on In-hospital and Long-term Mortality of Patients with Acute ST-elevation Myocardial Infarction

Background: Numerous previous studies have shown that renal insufficiency (RI) in patients with acute coronary syndrome is associated with poor cardiovascular outcomes. These studies do not well address the impact of RI on the long-term outcome of patients with acute ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) in China. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of admission RI and inhospital and long-term mortality of patients with acute STEMI. Methods: This was a multicenter, observational, prospective-cohort study. 718 consecutive patients were admitted to 19 hospitals in Beijing within 24 hours of onset of STEMI, between January 1,2006 and December 31,2006. Estimation of glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was calculated using the modified abbreviated modification of diet in renal disease equation-based on the Chinese chronic kidney disease patients. The patients were categorized according to eGFR, as normal renal dysfunction (eGFR ≥ 90 ml[BULLET OPERATOR]min-1[BULLET OPERATOR]1.73 m-2), mild RI (60 ml[BULLET OPERATOR]min-1[BULLET OPERATOR]1.73 m-2 ⩽ eGFR < 90 ml[BULLET OPERATOR]min-1[BULLET OPERATOR]1.73 m-2) and moderate or severe RI (eGFR < 60 ml[BULLET OPERATOR]min-1[BULLET OPERATOR]1.73 m-2). The association between RI and inhospital and 6-year mortality of was evaluated. Results: Seven hundred and eighteen patients with STEMI were evaluated. There were 551 men and 167 women with a mean age of 61.0 ± 13.0 years. Two hundred and eighty patients (39.0%) had RI, in which 61 patients (8.5%) reached the level of moderate or severe RI. Patients with RI were more often female, elderly, hypertensive, and more patients had heart failure and stroke with higher killip class. Patients with RI were less likely to present with chest pain. The inhospital mortality (1.4% vs. 5.9% vs. 22.9%, P < 0.001), 6-year all-cause mortality (9.5% vs. 19.8 vs. 45.2%, P < 0.001) and 6-year cardiac mortality (2.9% vs. 12.2% vs. 23.8%, P < 0.001) were markedly increased in patients with RI. After adjusting for other confounding factors, classification of admission renal function was an independent predictor of inhospital mortality (Odd ratio, 1.966; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.002-3.070, P = 0.019), 6-year all-cause mortality (relative risk [RR] = 1.501, 95% CI: 1.018-4.373, P = 0.039) and 6-year cardiac mortality (RR = 1.663, 95% CI: 1.122-4.617, P = 0.042). Conclusions: RI is very common in STEMI patients. RI evaluated by eGFR is an important independent predictor of short-term and long-term outcome in patients with acute STEMI.
Efficacy and Safety of a Hyaluronic Acid Filler to Correct Aesthetically Detracting or Deficient Features of the Asian Nose: A Prospective, Open-Label, Long-Term Study

Background There is increasing interest among patients and plastic surgeons for alternatives to rhinoplasty, a common surgical procedure performed in Asia. Objectives To evaluate the safety, efficacy, and longevity of a hyaluronic acid filler in the correction of aesthetically detracting or deficient features of the Asian nose. Methods Twenty-nine carefully screened Asian patients had their noses corrected with the study filler (Juvéderm VOLUMA [Allergan plc, Dublin, Ireland] with lidocaine injectable gel), reflecting individualized treatment goals and utilizing a standardized injection procedure, and were followed for over 12 months. Results A clinically meaningful correction (≥1 grade improvement on the Assessment of Aesthetic Improvement Scale) was achieved in 27 (93.1%) patients at the first follow-up visit. This was maintained in 28 (96.6%) patients at the final visit, based on the independent assessments of a central non-injecting physician and the patients. At this final visit, 23 (79.3%) patients were satisfied or very satisfied with the study filler and 25 (86.2%) would recommend it to others. In this small series of patients, there were no serious adverse events (AEs), with all treatment-related AEs being mild to moderate, transient injection site reactions, unrelated to the study filler. Conclusions Using specific eligibility criteria, individualized treatment goals, and a standardized injection procedure, the study filler corrected aesthetically detracting or deficient features of the Asian nose, with the therapeutic effects lasting for over 12 months, consistent with a high degree of patient satisfaction. This study supports the safety and efficacy of this HA filler for specific nose augmentation procedures in selected Asian patients. Level of Evidence: 3 Therapeutic
Ethnopolitics: A Conceptual Framework

In his Ethnopolitcs Professor Rothschild offers a forceful analysis of the causes and consequences of ethnicity's introduction into the political arena. To him, "ethnicity is a plastic, variegated, and originally ascriptive trait that, in certain historical and socioeconomic circumstances, is readily politicized" (p. 1). Thus it entails' 'a further related, irony and paradox. It stresses, ideologizes, reifies, modifies, and sometimes virtually re-creates the putatively distinctive and unique cultural heritage of the ethnic groups that it mobilizes precisely at the historical moments when these groups are being thoroughly penetrated by the universal culture of science and technology. " Hence "politization of ethnicity is.a dialectic process that preserves ethnic groups by emphasizing their singularity and yet it also engineers and lubricates their modernization by transforming them into political conflict groups" (p. 3).