Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Variance Risk in Aggregate Stock Returns and Time-Varying Return Predictability

This paper introduces a new out-of-sample forecasting methodology for asset returns using the variance risk premium (VRP). While Bollerslev, Tauchen, and Zhou (2009) demonstrate that the VRP predicts market returns up to six months, I show that the out-of-sample performance is comparably weak. In contrast, my new approach produces an out-of-sample forecast that is both highly statistically and economically significant. Specifically, I find a monthly out-of-sample R-squared of 8% and a trading strategy that produces a 0.1 gain in the annual Sharpe ratio. This new approach is motivated by the 'beta representation,' which implies that the market risk premium is related to the price of variance risk by the exposure to variance risk (beta). Hence, empirically, when the slope of the contemporaneous regression of market returns on variance innovation is larger, future returns are more sharply related to the current VRP. Also, when variance shocks explain a greater fraction of market returns, the predictions are more accurate. Furthermore, these results are extendable to the cross-section of exchange rates. The VRP of the S&P 500 Index only predicts returns of currencies that are highly correlated with changes in market variance. For those currencies, the new methodology offers considerable improvements in out-of-sample performance. These results suggest that the variance risk exposure is a key factor that determines whether and how returns are predictable by the VRP.
Reduction of Advanced-Glycation End Products Levels and Inhibition of RAGE Signaling Decreases Rat Vascular Calcification Induced by Diabetes

Advanced-glycation end products (AGEs) were recently implicated in vascular calcification, through a process mediated by RAGE (receptor for AGEs). Although a correlation between AGEs levels and vascular calcification was established, there is no evidence that reducing in vivo AGEs deposition or inhibiting AGEs-RAGE signaling pathways can decrease medial calcification. We evaluated the impact of inhibiting AGEs formation by pyridoxamine or elimination of AGEs by alagebrium on diabetic medial calcification. We also evaluated if the inhibition of AGEs-RAGE signaling pathways can prevent calcification. Rats were fed a high fat diet during 2 months before receiving a low dose of streptozotocin. Then, calcification was induced with warfarin. Pyridoxamine was administered at the beginning of warfarin treatment while alagebrium was administered 3 weeks after the beginning of warfarin treatment. Results demonstrate that AGEs inhibitors prevent the time-dependent accumulation of AGEs in femoral arteries of diabetic rats. This effect was accompanied by a reduced diabetes-accelerated calcification. Ex vivo experiments showed that N-methylpyridinium, an agonist of RAGE, induced calcification of diabetic femoral arteries, a process inhibited by antioxidants and different inhibitors of signaling pathways associated to RAGE activation. The physiological importance of oxidative stress was demonstrated by the reduction of femoral artery calcification in diabetic rats treated with apocynin, an inhibitor of reactive oxygen species production. We demonstrated that AGE inhibitors prevent or limit medial calcification. We also showed that diabetes-accelerated calcification is prevented by antioxidants. Thus, inhibiting the association of AGE-RAGE or the downstream signaling reduced medial calcification in diabetes.
Truncated HARQ-Based Multi-Hop Systems: Outage and Related Performance Metrics

In this paper, we focus on the analysis of the end-to-end outage probability of hybrid automatic repeat request (HARQ) in a multi-hop, block-fading channel. First, we use a Markov chain to model the multi-hop system with truncated HARQ type-I (HARQ-I) and derive closed-form expressions for the outage probability and throughput; we also obtain lower and upper bounds on the energy efficiency of the system. Then, we extend the analysis to cover HARQ with packet combining where we provide a general formulation of the outage probability; in special cases, closed-form expressions for outage probability and throughput are obtained. Finally, for a multi-hop system with opportunistic routing, we present recursive formulas to obtain outage probability and throughput. The expressions we derived allow us to draw conclusions about the outage diversity of different multi-hop protocols. In particular, we show that the diversity order is improved for opportunistic multi-hop system and is linearly increasing with the number of allowed transmissions for each packet. Numerical results illustrate how the analytical expression can be used to compare various multi-hop HARQ transmission strategies.
‘The phone reminder is important, but will others get to know about my illness?’ Patient perceptions of an mHealth antiretroviral treatment support intervention in the HIVIND trial in South India

Objectives The recent explosion of mHealth applications in the area of HIV care has led to the development of mHealth interventions to support antiretroviral treatment adherence. Several of these interventions have been tested for effectiveness, but few studies have explored patient perspectives of such interventions. Exploring patient perspectives enhances the understanding of how an intervention works or why it does not. We therefore studied perceptions regarding an mHealth adherence intervention within the HIVIND trial in South India. Methods The study was conducted at three clinics in South India. The intervention comprised an automated interactive voice response (IVR) call and a pictorial short messaging service (SMS), each delivered weekly. Sixteen purposively selected participants from the intervention arm in the HIVIND trial were interviewed. All participants had completed at least 84 weeks since enrollment in the trial. Perceptions on the usefulness and perceived benefits and risks of receiving the intervention were sought. The interviews were transcribed and analysed using the framework approach to qualitative data analysis. Results Despite varying perceptions of the intervention, most participants found it useful. The intervention was perceived as a sign of ‘care’ from the clinic. The IVR call was preferred to the SMS reminder. Two-way communication was preferred to automated calls. Participants also perceived a risk of unintentional disclosure of their HIV status and stigma thereof via the intervention and took initiatives to mitigate this risk. Targeting reminders at those with poor adherence and those in need of social support was suggested. Conclusions mHealth adherence interventions go beyond their intended role to provide a sense of care and support to the recipient. Although automated interventions are impersonal, they could be a solution for scale up. Interventions that engage both the recipient and the healthcare provider have greater potential for success. Personalising mHealth interventions could mitigate the risk of stigma and promote their uptake. Trial registration number ISRCTN79261738.
Measures of the home environment related to childhood obesity: a systematic review

Abstract Objective Due to a proliferation of measures for different components of the home environment related to childhood obesity, the purpose of the present systematic review was to examine these tools and the degree to which they can validly and reliably assess the home environment. Design Relevant manuscripts published between 1998 and 2010 were obtained through electronic database searches and manual searches of reference lists. Manuscripts were included if the researchers reported on a measure of the home environment related to child eating and physical activity (PA) and childhood obesity and reported on at least one psychometric property. Results Of the forty papers reviewed, 48 % discussed some aspect of parenting specific to food. Fifty-per cent of the manuscripts measured food availability/accessibility, 18 % measured PA availability/accessibility, 20 % measured media availability/accessibility, 30 % focused on feeding style, 23 % focused on parenting related to PA and 20 % focused on parenting related to screen time. Conclusions Many researchers chose to design new measures for their studies but often the items employed were brief and there was a lack of transparency in the psychometric properties. Many of the current measures of the home food and PA environment focus on one or two constructs; more comprehensive measures as well as short screeners guided by theoretical models are necessary to capture influences in the home on food and PA behaviours of children. Finally, the current measures of the home environment do not necessarily translate to specific sub-populations. Recommendations were made for future validation of measures in terms of appropriate psychometric testing.
Night sleep electroencephalogram power spectral analysis in excessive daytime sleepiness disorders.

A group of 53 patients (40 males, 13 females) with mean age of 49 years, ranging from 30 to 70 years, was evaluated in the following excessive daytime sleepiness (EDS) disorders: obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (B4a), periodic movements in sleep (B5a), affective disorder (B2a), functional psychiatric non affective disorder (B2b). We considered all adult patients referred to the Center sequentially with no other distinctions but these three criteria: (a) EDS was the main complaint; (b) right handed; (c) not using psychotropic drugs for two weeks prior to the all-night polysomnography. EEG (C3/A1, C4/A2) samples from 2 to 10 minutes of each stage of the first REM cycle were chosen. The data was recorded simultaneously in magnetic tape and then fed into a computer for power spectral analysis. The percentage of power (PP) in each band calculated in relation to the total EEG power was determined of subsequent sections of 20.4 s for the following frequency bands: delta, theta, alpha and beta. The PP in all EDS patients sample had a tendency to decrease progressively from the slowest to the fastest frequency bands, in every sleep stage. PP distribution in the delta range increased progressively from stage 1 to stage 4; stage REM levels were close to stage 2 levels. In an EDS patients interhemispheric coherence was high in every band and sleep stage. B4a patients sample PP had a tendency to decrease progressively from the slowest to the fastest frequency bands, in every sleep stage; PP distribution in the delta range increased progressively from stage 1 to stage 4; stage REM levels were between stage 1 and stage 2 levels. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)
Hepatitis B virus X protein protects against anti-Fas-mediated apoptosis in human liver cells by inducing NF-κB

The hepatitis B virus-encoded X antigen (HBxAg) may contribute to the development of liver cancer, in part, by stimulating the growth and survival of infected cells in the face of ongoing immune responses. Given that the Fas ligand/receptor system contributes to the pathogenesis of chronic hepatitis B, experiments were designed to test the hypothesis that HBxAg mediates resistance of liver cells to anti-Fas killing. Accordingly, when HBxAg was introduced into HepG2 cells, it rendered these cells partially resistant to killing by anti-Fas. In HepG2 cells replicating virus, protection against anti-Fas killing was also observed, but to a lesser extent. Survival correlated with the activation of nuclear factor kappa B (NF-κB) by HBxAg. Sensitivity to anti-Fas was observed in control cells, and was re-established in HepG2X cells stably transfected with the dominant negative inhibitor of NF-κB, IκBα. HBxAg activation of NF-κB was also associated with decreased levels of endogenous IκBα mRNA. Hence, HBxAg stimulation of NF-κB promotes the survival of liver cells against Fas killing. This may contribute to the persistence of infected hepatocytes during chronic infection.
AN ECONOMIC APPRAISAL OF STATE LOTTERIES

This paper examines lotteries in terms of broad considerations of economic efficiency and incidence. A state lottery simultaneously creates a consumption good and taxes that good. The creation activity produces an efficiency gain which is only partly erased by the tax. To measure the incidence of the tax revenue collected, the distribution of lottery purchases across income classes is examined. Five sets of data are presented, and each confirms the regressivity of the lottery tax revenues.
Underestimation of acute pancreatitis: patients with only a small increase in amylase/lipase levels can also have or develop severe acute pancreatitis

BACKGROUND In most treatment studies on acute pancreatitis, pancreatologists base their diagnosis on amylase/lipase levels more than three times above the upper limit of normal (>3n) and thus exclude patients with smaller enzyme level increases. The recommendations derived from the results of treatment studies do not take into account such patients. Non-pancreatologists frequently believe that only patients with high enzyme levels have a serious prognosis. AIMS To question the assumption that high enzyme levels indicate severe, and conversely low enzyme levels indicate mild, acute pancreatitis. PATIENTS/METHODS This retrospective study includes 284 consecutive patients with a first attack of acute pancreatitis. The cause was biliary in 114 (40%) patients, alcoholism in 83 (29%), other in 21 (7%), and unknown in 66 (23%). Patients were divided into two groups according to their serum enzyme levels (amylase: ⩽3n, n = 88; >3n, n = 196; lipase: ⩽3n, n = 51; >3n, n = 233). Renal impairment, indication for dialysis and artificial ventilation, development of pseudocysts, necessity for surgery, and mortality were taken as parameters of severity. RESULTS The incidence of severity was the same for both the ⩽3n and >3n groups. CONCLUSIONS The severity of acute pancreatitis is independent of the elevation in serum amylase/lipase level (⩽3n or >3n) on admission. Patients with only a slight increase can also have or develop severe acute pancreatitis. Patients with ⩽3n elevated enzyme levels on admission represent a substantial group that treatment studies have frequently overlooked. This is especially true for patients with alcohol induced acute pancreatitis whose amylase levels are lower than in other aetiological groups.
Three-Dimensional Histology Volume Reconstruction of Axonal Tract Tracing Data: Exploring Topographical Organization in Subcortical Projections from Rat Barrel Cortex

Topographical organization is a hallmark of the mammalian brain, and the spatial organization of axonal connections in different brain regions provides a structural framework accommodating specific patterns of neural activity. The presence, amount, and spatial distribution of axonal connections are typically studied in tract tracing experiments in which axons or neurons are labeled and examined in histological sections. Three-dimensional (3-D) reconstruction techniques are used to achieve more complete visualization and improved understanding of complex topographical relationships. 3-D reconstruction approaches based on manually or semi-automatically recorded spatial points representing axonal labeling have been successfully applied for investigation of smaller brain regions, but are not practically feasible for whole-brain analysis of multiple regions. We here reconstruct serial histological images from four whole brains (originally acquired for conventional microscopic analysis) into volumetric images that are spatially registered to a 3-D atlas template. The aims were firstly to evaluate the quality of the 3-D reconstructions and the usefulness of the approach, and secondly to investigate axonal projection patterns and topographical organization in rat corticostriatal and corticothalamic pathways. We demonstrate that even with the limitations of the original routine histological material, the 3-D reconstructed volumetric images allow efficient visualization of tracer injection sites and axonal labeling, facilitating detection of spatial distributions and across-case comparisons. Our results further show that clusters of S1 corticostriatal and corticothalamic projections are distributed within narrow, elongated or spherical subspaces extending across the entire striatum / thalamus. We conclude that histology volume reconstructions facilitate mapping of spatial distribution patterns and topographical organization. The reconstructed image volumes are shared via the Rodent Brain Workbench (www.rbwb.org).
Grazing Eclipsing Dwarf Nova CW Monocerotis: Dwarf Nova-Type Outburst in a Possible Intermediate Polar?

We observed the 2002 October–November outburst of the dwarf nova CW Mon. The outburst showed a clear signature of a premaximum halt, and a more rapid decline after reaching the outburst maximum. On two separate occasions, during the premaximum stage and near the outburst maximum, shallow eclipses were recorded. This finding confirms the previously suggested possibility of the grazing eclipsing nature of this system. The separate occurrence of the eclipses and the premaximum halt can be understood as being the result of a combination of a twostep ignition of an outburst and the inside-out propagation of the heating wave. We detected a coherent short-period (0.02549d) signal on two subsequent nights around the optical maximum. This signal was likely present during the maximum phase of the 2000 January outburst. We interpret this signal as being a signature of the intermediate polar (IP) type pulses. The rather strange outburst properties, strong and hard X-ray emission, and the low luminosity of the outburst maximum might be understood as a consequence of the supposed IP nature. The ratio between the suggested spin period and the orbital period, however, is rather unusual for a system having an orbital period of ∼ 0.176d.
Pattern-Based Expectations: International Experimental Evidence and Applications in Financial Economics

Abstract We study how subjects extrapolate simple patterns in financial time series in order to develop a descriptive model of actual agent behavior. The laboratory experiment for this analysis was conducted in Germany and Japan. Statistical analyses indicate considerable similarity in expectations formation across cultures and document that agents' expectations are at variance with the notion of standard trend extrapolation. The paper then proposes a method for computing expectations for any economic time series based on the experimental data. Such pattern-based expectations are shown to explain stock prices and the dynamics of the forward discount on the foreign exchange market.
A Framework of Interaction Costs in Information Visualization

Interaction cost is an important but poorly understood factor in visualization design. We propose a framework of interaction costs inspired by Normanpsilas Seven Stages of Action to facilitate study. From 484 papers, we collected 61 interaction-related usability problems reported in 32 user studies and placed them into our framework of seven costs: (1) Decision costs to form goals; (2) system-power costs to form system operations; (3) Multiple input mode costs to form physical sequences; (4) Physical-motion costs to execute sequences; (5) Visual-cluttering costs to perceive state; (6) View-change costs to interpret perception; (7) State-change costs to evaluate interpretation. We also suggested ways to narrow the gulfs of execution (2-4) and evaluation (5-7) based on collected reports. Our framework suggests a need to consider decision costs (1) as the gulf of goal formation.
MEASURING STATISTICS ATTITUDES: STRUCTURE OF THE SURVEY OF ATTITUDES TOWARD STATISTICS (SATS-36)

Although a number of instruments for assessing attitudes toward statistics have been developed, several questions with regard to the structure and item functioning remain unresolved. In this study, the structure of the Survey of Attitudes Toward Statistics (SATS-36), a widely used questionnaire to measure six aspects of students’ attitudes toward statistics, is investigated. This study addresses the previously unexplored issue of individual item functioning. Based on confirmatory factor analysis using individual items, the results suggest that the SATS-36 can be improved by removing some poorly functioning items and that depending on the goals of a specific study either six subscales could be used or three of them (Affect, Cognitive Competence, and Difficulty) can be combined into one subscale without losing much information. First published May 2011 at Statistics Education Research Journal: Archives
SEED BORNE MYCOFLORA OF SOME COMMERCIAL WHEAT (TRITICUM AESTIVUM L.) CULTIVARS IN PUNJAB, PAKISTAN

Seed borne mycoflora associated with ten commercial varieties of wheat viz. Blue silver, Faisalabad 85, Manthar-3, Pak 81, Parwaz 94, Pirsabaq 2005, Punjnad-1, Sariab-92, Sh-2002 and Wafaq-2001 was investigated through standard blotter paper and agar plate method by using Mann-Whitney U test. At least eleven fungal genera were recovered from seeds. The most frequently isolated fungi were Bipolaris sorokiniana (11.125%), Aspergillus flavus (9.825%), Alternaria alternata (7.15%) and Aspergillus niger (6.225%). It is apparent from the present investigation that all commercial wheat verities tested were contaminated by fungi. The rolled paper method was used to find out the effect of seed borne fungi on seed germination. Seeds of Pak 81, Wafaq-2001 and Blue silver were germinated in high proportion with variable number of normal and abnormal seedlings than the seeds of other varieties tested. The fungi associated with seeds of wheat cause dire diseases in wheat reducing the germination capacity.
Probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GR-1 and Lactobacillus reuteri RC-14 May Help Downregulate TNF-Alpha, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 and IL-12 (p70) in the Neurogenic Bladder of Spinal Cord Injured Patient with Urinary Tract Infections: A Two-Case Study

The management of urinary tract infection (UTI) in individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) continues to be of concern, due to complications that can occur. An emerging concept that is a common underlying pathophysiological process is involved, wherein pathogens causing UTI have a role in inflammatory progression. We hypothesized that members of the commensal flora, such as lactobacilli, may counter this reaction through anti-inflammatory mediation. This was assessed in a pilot two-patient study in which probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GR-1 and Lactobacillus reuteri were administered to one patient and placebo to another, both along with antibiotics to treat acute UTI. Urinary TNF-alpha was significantly downregulated (P = .015) in the patient who received the probiotic and who used intermittent catheterization compared with patient on placebo and using an indwelling catheter. The extent to which this alteration resulted in improved well-being in spinal cord injured patients remains to be determined in a larger study.