Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Forecasting Default with the Merton Distance to Default Model

We examine the accuracy and contribution of the Merton distance to default (DD) model, which is based on Merton's (1974) bond pricing model. We compare the model to a "naive" alternative, which uses the functional form suggested by the Merton model but does not solve the model for an implied probability of default. We find that the naive predictor performs slightly better in hazard models and in out-of-sample forecasts than both the Merton DD model and a reduced-form model that uses the same inputs. Several other forecasting variables are also important predictors, and fitted values from an expanded hazard model outperform Merton DD default probabilities out of sample. Implied default probabilities from credit default swaps and corporate bond yield spreads are only weakly correlated with Merton DD probabilities after adjusting for agency ratings and bond characteristics. We conclude that while the Merton DD model does not produce a sufficient statistic for the probability of default, its functional form is useful for forecasting defaults. The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oxfordjournals.org, Oxford University Press.
Total joint replacement: A multiple risk factor analysis of physical activity level 1–2 years postoperatively

Background and purpose — The effect of total joint arthroplasty (TJA) on physical activity is not fully understood. We investigated the change in physical activity after TJA and patient factors associated with change. Patients and methods — Using a total joint replacement registry, primary total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients (n = 5,678) and knee arthroplasty (TKA) patients (n = 11,084) between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2012 were identified. Median age at THA was 68 and median age at TKA was 67. Change in self-reported physical activity (minutes per week) from before TJA (within 1 year of surgery) to after TJA (1–2 years) was the outcome of interest. Patient demographics and comorbidities were evaluated as risk factors. Multiple linear regression was used. Results — Median physical activity before surgery was 50 min/week (IQR: 0–140) for THA patients and 58 (IQR: 3–143) for TKA patients. Median physical activity after surgery was 150 min/week (IQR: 60–280) for both THA patients and TKA patients. Following TJA, 50% of patients met CDC/WHO physical activity guideline criteria. Higher body mass index was associated with lower change in physical activity (THA: −7.1 min/week; TKA: −5.9 min/week). Females had lower change than males (THA: −11 min/week; TKA: −9.1 min/week). In TKA patients, renal failure was associated with lower change (−17 min/week), as were neurological disorders (−30 min/week). Interpretation — Self-reported minutes of physical activity increased from before to after TJA, but 50% of TJA patients did not meet recommended physical activity guideline criteria. Higher body mass index, female sex, and specific comorbidities were found to be associated with low change in physical activity. Patient education on the benefits of physical activity should concentrate on these subgroups of patients.
PRODUCT AND SERVICE QUALITY: THE ANTECEDENTS OF CUSTOMER LOYALTY IN THE AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY

Prior literature has examined product quality and service quality separately as antecedents of customer loyalty. In the context of the automotive industry, we present a framework that examines the simultaneous impact of product and service quality on consumers' purchase intentions. The framework is operationalized as several hypotheses that posit relationships between service quality, service satisfaction, product quality, and customer loyalty. The hypotheses are tested using three sources of data: (i) archival data on product quality and customer purchases, (ii) consumersíresponses to a survey instrument, and (iii) Consumer Reports. Results indicate general support for main hypotheses proposed.
The Impact of the Argentine Default on Volatility Co-Movements in Emerging Bond Markets

This paper analyses the dynamic interrelationship between sovereign bond spreads in ten emerging markets. It investigates the nature of the volatility transmission in secondary bond markets through conditional covariance estimates obtained by orthogonal methods. This approach, which combines PCA with GARCH volatility modelling, filters away idiosyncratic news and focuses on spreads dynamics driven by common factors. We find convincing evidence of co-movements between spread changes; more within than across geographical areas. Conditional covariations increase in periods of turbulence and subsequently subside. The time varying minimum variance artificial portfolios, which are used here for model validation, show that, in spite of systemic risk, international portfolio diversification is still a powerful strategy for risk reduction.
The role of pelvic organs prolapse in the etiology of urinary incontinence in women

Background : Urinary incontinence is relatively common in women and is usually associated with pelvic organs prolapse. Our aim was to determine the relationship between type and intensity of urinary incontinence and different grades and types of pelvic organ prolapse among women. Materials and Methods: One-hundred female patients with the chief complaint of incontinence, who were diagnosed with pelvic organ prolapse participated in this study. Intensity of prolapse, stress and urge incontinence were evaluated using POP-Q (Pelvic Organ Prolapse Questionnaire), SEAPI (Stress related, Emptying ability, Anatomy, Protection, Inhibition) and Freeman criteria, respectively. Results: Patients′ mean age was 51.95 ± 12.82 years. The most common type of incontinence was stress incontinence (53%) and the most common prolapse type was cystocele (76%). Cystocele and rectocele had a significant relationship with stress (P value = 0.012) and urge incontinence (P value = 0.035), respectively; however, no relationship was observed between different grades of cystocele, rectocele and enterocele with different types of urinary incontinence (P value > 0.05). In patients with urge and mixed incontinence, prolapse grade significantly increased with age, but no such relationship was found in patients with stress incontinence. The number of vaginal deliveries had a significant relationship only with cystocele and rectocele grade; however, the relationship between other variables such as intensity of different types of urinary incontinence and enterocele grade with the number of deliveries was not significant. Conclusion: Pelvic organ prolapse had a significant relationship with urinary incontinence regardless of intensity and POP should be examined in all of these patients.
A Goodwinian Model with Direct and Roundabout Returns to Scale (an Application to Italy)

This paper re-formulates and tests statistically a hypothetical law (HL) of capital accumulation that manifests itself in three scenarios for Italian economy. HL refines Verdoorn law and ‘Ricardian’ relationship between employment and returns; it generalizes neoclassical and Goodwinian models. Big cycles are not sustainable in inertia Scenario I. Lowering direct diseconomy of scale does not alter a non-trivial stationary state in stabilization Scenario II. Weakening an inverse relation between employment ratio and growth rate of capital intensity raises stationary relative labour compensation without deteriorating profitability in stabilization Scenario III. Stationary states with zero relative labour compensation are not economically relevant.
Performance, gut morphology and microbiology effects of a Bacillus probiotic, avilamycin and their combination in mixed grain broiler diets

ABSTRACT 1. This study aimed to determine the effect of avilamycin (AGP) and a multi-strain Bacillus probiotic (DFM) on the performance, gut histology and microbiology of broilers fed on a mixed grain diet. 2. A total of 800 chicks were allocated to four treatments: a control diet, control+AGP, control+DFM, or control+AGP+DFM. Bodyweight, feed intake and FCR were measured at d 0, 21 and 42. Samples were taken at d42 to determine villus height (VH), crypt depth (CD) and ratio (VH:CD). Mucosal E. coli and Lactobacilli counts were measured at d42. 3. At d42, DFM and AGP+DFM significantly increased weight over the control, with AGP returning an intermediate value. FCR followed a similar pattern. DFM and AGP+DFM significantly increased VH and CD in all gut sections compared to the control. 4. DFM and AGP+DFM reduced E. coli counts compared to control, with AGP reducing caecal counts only, while Lactobacilli counts were increased. 5. Divergent histology and microbiology between treatments highlight the different modes of action of AGP and DFM for improving broiler growth and feed efficiency.
Firm Characteristics and the Speed of FDA Approval

This paper empirically examines the effect of firm-specific characteristics on the length of time required by the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) to review and approve new-drug applications between 1990 and 1992. The approach treats regulatory decisions as endogenous and explains the variation in regulatory behavior as a function of differences that exist between firms and drugs. Results show that, controlling for drug-specific characteristics, regulators respond to firm-specific characteristics when evaluating new drug applications. For instance, firms that are less diversified and more R&D-intensive receive shorter review times for their new-drug applications than more diversified and less R&D-intensive firms. The reason is that most firm characteristics signal information to reviewers about either firm reputation or application quality. This information reduces reviewers’ uncertainty about approving a dangerous or ineffective drug and leads to faster review times. The results suggest that regulators respond to the heterogeneities among firms in the pharmaceutical market in systematic ways.
The Interaction between the Endothelial Cell Protein C Receptor and Protein C Is Dictated by the γ-Carboxyglutamic Acid Domain of Protein C*

The endothelial cell protein C receptor (EPCR) binds to both protein C and activated protein C (APC) with similar affinity. Removal of the Gla domain of protein C results in the loss of most of the binding affinity. This observation is compatible with at least two models: 1) the Gla domain of protein C interacts with phospholipid on cell surfaces to stabilize interaction with EPCR or 2) the Gla domain of protein C makes specific protein-protein interactions with EPCR. The latter model predicts that chimeric proteins containing the protein C Gla domain should interact with EPCR. To test this, we constructed a prothrombin chimera in which the Gla domain and aromatic stack of prothrombin were replaced with the corresponding region of protein C. The 125I-labeled chimera (K d = 176 nm) and 125I-APC (K d = 65 nm) both bound specifically to 293 cells stably transfected with EPCR, but both bound poorly to sham-transfected cells. The chimera also blocked APC binding to EPCR-transfected cells in a dose-dependent fashion (K i ≈ 139 nm) similarly to protein C (K i ≈ 75 nm). Chimera binding to EPCR-transfected cells was blocked by soluble EPCR, demonstrating direct protein-protein interaction between the chimera and EPCR. Consistent with this conclusion, the isolated Gla domain of protein C blocked APC binding to EPCR-transfected cells (IC50 = 2 μm). No inhibition was observed with the isolated prothrombin Gla domain. A protein C chimera with the prothrombin Gla domain and aromatic stack failed to bind to EPCR detectably. These data suggest that the Gla domain of protein C is responsible for much of the binding energy and specificity of the protein C-EPCR interaction.
High‐sensitivity HLA class I peptidome analysis enables a precise definition of peptide motifs and the identification of peptides from cell lines and patients’ sera

The characterization of peptides bound to human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I is of fundamental importance for understanding CD8+ T cell‐driven immunological processes and for the development of immunomodulatory therapeutic strategies. However, until now, the mass spectrometric analysis of HLA‐bound peptides has typically required billions of cells, still resulting in relatively few high‐confidence peptide identifications. Capitalizing on the recent developments in mass spectrometry and bioinformatics, we have implemented a methodology for the efficient recovery of acid‐eluted HLA peptides after purification with the pan‐reactive antibody W6/32 and have identified a total of 27 862 unique peptides with high confidence (1% false discovery rate) from five human cancer cell lines. More than 93% of the identified peptides were eight to 11 amino acids in length and contained signatures that were in excellent agreement with published HLA binding motifs. Furthermore, by purifying soluble HLA class I complexes (sHLA) from sera of melanoma patients, up to 972 high‐confidence peptides could be identified, including melanoma‐associated antigens already described in the literature. Knowledge of the HLA class I peptidome should facilitate multiplex tetramer technology‐based characterization of T cells, and allow the development of patient selection, stratification and immunomodulatory therapeutic strategies.
Segregation of enlarged vestibular aqueducts in families with non-diagnostic SLC26A4 genotypes

Background: Hearing loss with enlarged vestibular aqueduct (EVA) can be inherited as an autosomal recessive trait caused by bi-allelic mutations of SLC26A4. However, many EVA patients have non-diagnostic SLC26A4 genotypes with only one or no detectable mutant alleles. Methods and results: In this study, the authors were unable to detect occult SLC26A4 mutations in EVA patients with non-diagnostic genotypes by custom comparative genomic hybridisation (CGH) microarray analysis or by sequence analysis of conserved non-coding regions. The authors sought to compare the segregation of EVA among 71 families with two (M2), one (M1) or no (M0) detectable mutant alleles of SLC26A4. The segregation ratios of EVA in the M1 and M2 groups were similar, but the segregation ratio for M1 was significantly higher than in the M0 group. Haplotype analyses of SLC26A4-linked STR markers in M0 and M1 families revealed discordant segregation of EVA with these markers in eight of 24 M0 families. Conclusion: The results support the hypothesis of a second, undetected SLC26A4 mutation that accounts for EVA in the M1 patients, in contrast to non-genetic factors, complex inheritance, or aetiologic heterogeneity in the M0 group of patients. These results will be helpful for counselling EVA families with non-diagnostic SLC26A4 genotypes.
Predicting genetic loading from symptom patterns in obsessive‐ compulsive disorder: a latent variable analysis

Background: Some symptom dimensions in obsessive‐compulsive disorder (OCD) patients have a familial and putative genetic foundation, based on replicated findings in studies of sib‐pairs with OCD. However, these symptom dimensions are all from exploratory factor analyses of Yale‐Brown Obsessive‐Compulsive Scale Symptom Checklist ratings based on non‐empirically derived symptom categories, rather than individual symptoms. Methods: In this study, we used a novel latent variable mixture model analysis to identify meaningful patient subgroupings. This was preceded by a confirmatory factor analysis of a 65‐item OCD symptom inventory from 398 OCD probands, which yielded a five‐factor solution. Data from all five symptom factors were used in a latent variable mixture model analysis, which identified two statistically separate OCD subpopulations. Results: One group of probands had a significantly higher proportion of OCD‐affected afflicted relatives (parents or close parental relatives), whereas the other group had a less prevalent familial OCD. The group with the more familial OCD was also found to have an earlier age of OCD onset, more severe OCD symptoms, and greater psychiatric comorbidity and impairment. Conclusions: Especially if the results are verified in other samples, this research paradigm, which identified characteristics of individuals with familial OCD, should prove useful in carrying out genome‐wide linkage and association studies of OCD and may provide a model for other symptom‐based studies of additional medical disorders. Depression and Anxiety 25:680–688, 2008. Published 2008 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.
Clinical validation of nursing diagnosis "Willingness for improved infant development".

Objective: to conduct the clinical validation of nursing diagnosis "Willingness for improved infant development". Method: a cross-sectional study, conducted in a Centro de Saúde da Família (Family Health Care center), with 45 healthy breastfed infants. The instrument for collecting the data was prepared based on the literature and validated by nurses. It contained the following variables: sociodemographic, gestational, and obstetrical variables; breastfed infant's nutritional profile; evaluation of the defining characteristics of the proposed nursing diagnosis. Results: all the defining characteristics were found to have high sensitivity values (>90%), positive predictive values (>65%), negative predictive values (>66%); however, low specificity values (<32%). In this study, the defining characteristics we found to have estimates (>0.50) within the ROC curve, which provides good sensitivity and specificity. Conclusion: this study verified the structural elements of the proposed nursing diagnosis to be relevant in the clinical context, which justifies the need for its being employed with children, taking into account its contribution to improving nursing care.
Comparison among conventional and advanced MRI, 18F-FDG PET/CT, phenotype and genotype in glioblastoma

Glioblastoma (GB) is a highly heterogeneous tumor. In order to identify in vivo the most malignant tumor areas, the extent of tumor infiltration and the sites giving origin to GB stem cells (GSCs), we combined positron emission tomography/computed tomography (PET/CT) and conventional and advanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) with histology, immunohistochemistry and molecular genetics. Prior to dura opening and tumor resection, forty-eight biopsy specimens [23 of contrast-enhancing (CE) and 25 of non-contrast enhancing (NE) regions] from 12 GB patients were obtained by a frameless image-guided stereotactic biopsy technique. The highest values of 2-[18F]-fluoro-2-deoxy-D-glucose maximum standardized uptake value (18F-FDG SUVmax), relative cerebral blood volume (rCBV), Choline/Creatine (Cho/Cr), Choline/N-acetylaspartate (Cho/NAA) and Lipids/Lactate (LL) ratio have been observed in the CE region. They corresponded to the most malignant tumor phenotype, to the greatest molecular spectrum and stem cell potential. On the contrary, apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) and fractional anisotropy (FA) in the CE region were very variable. 18F-FDG SUVmax, Cho/Cr and Cho/NAA ratio resulted the most suitable parameters to detect tumor infiltration. In edematous areas, reactive astrocytes and microglia/macrophages were influencing variables. Combined MRI and 18F-FDG PET/CT allowed to recognize the specific biological significance of the different identified areas of GB.
FORECASTING HUNGARIAN MORTALITY RATES USING THE LEE-CARTER METHOD*

A modified version of the popular Lee-Carter method (Lee-Carter 1992) is applied to forecast mortality rates in Hungary for the period 2004–2040 on the basis of mortality data between 1949 and 2003 both for men and women. Another case is also considered based on a restricted data set corresponding to the period 1989–2003. The model fitted to the data of the period 1949–2003 forecasts increasing mortality rates for men between ages 45 and 55, pointing out that the Lee-Carter method is hardly applicable for countries where mortality rates exhibit trends as peculiar as in Hungary. However, models fitted to the data for the last 15 years both for men and women forecast decreasing trends similarly to the case of countries where the method was successfully applied. Hence one gets a better fit in this way, however, further concerns suggest that the Lee-Carter model, which is celebrated and widely used in actuarial practice, does not necessarily give sufficiently good prediction.
A framework of theoretical lenses and strategic purposes to describe relationships among firm environmental strategy, financial performance, and environmental performance

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the type of theoretical lens and strategic purpose impacts the relationships among firm environmental strategy, financial performance, and environmental performance. Design/methodology/approach - This is a theoretical paper which first investigates three constructs: firm environmental strategy, environmental performance, and economic performance. Scholars have argued for different relationships among the three constructs. The paper then discusses two theoretical lenses (strategic choice and the resource-based view) and two strategic purposes (stakeholder and shareholder) used in the literature. The paper argues that the type of theoretical lens and strategic purpose will impact the way the three constructs (firm environmental strategy, financial performance, and environmental performance) are arranged. Findings - The paper provides a two-by-two matrix distinguishing between theoretical lens and strategic purpose. The paper argues that the specific choice of theoretical lens and strategic purpose helps define the way firm environmental strategy, financial performance, and environmental performance are arranged. Originality/value - As different scholars have argued for different relationships among the three constructs, this paper provides a framework that could help justify the seemingly paradoxical relationships. The paper concludes with ideas for future research on these issues.
Persistent Current Account Deficits: a Warning Signal?

When should persistent current account deficits be of concern to policymakers? We address this question by developing a framework for analysing current account sustainability, that explicitly takes into account willingness to pay and willingness to lend in addition to intertemporal solvency. This framework helps understand a variety of country experiences with protracted current account imbalances. We identify a number of sustainab ility indicators related to the structure of the economy, the economic policy stance, and political economy factors, and use them to evaluate the experience of countries that suffered external crises and of others that avoided them.