Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
FOMC Announcements and Predictable Returns

This paper studies the cross-sectional equity asset pricing implications of unanticipated monetary policy actions. It shows that the historical covariances of stock returns with monetary policy surprises are transient and do not capture future monetary policy exposure. Nevertheless, they are a powerful predictor of returns in the cross section. Stocks whose returns have positive historical covariances with surprise changes to the Fed funds target rate carry a significant premium in their future returns. A long/short trading strategy designed to exploit this effect achieves an annualized return of 10% and a Sharpe ratio of 0.62. The returns are generated on the long side, particularly by illiquid stocks that perform poorly around FOMC meetings with surprise cuts to the Fed funds target rate, and subsequently outperform the market. The evidence indicates that the predictability is caused by "fire sales" by stock investors betting against the Fed cutting rates.
In the Company of Women

Perspectives on inequality differ greatly regarding whether the logic of bureaucracy undermines sex-based ascription in work organizations by reducing subjectivity in personnel decisions, or instead merely serves to obscure or “scientize” inequality. Past research has tended to operationalize bureaucratization in terms of the adoption of formal procedures and structures; the authors argue instead that disagreements about whether bureaucracy promotes or ameliorates inequality and segregation have less to do with the contours of bureaucracy than with the underlying logic of bureaucratic organization. Accordingly, the authors assess the link between bureaucratic organization and labor-market ascription by characterizing the logics underlying organizational employment systems. Using data on young high-technology companies in California’s Silicon Valley, they find evidence that bureaucratization improves employment prospects for women in core scientific-technical roles within these enterprises. They further explore path dependence in organizational logics and find that such logics, when adopted, have powerful enduring effects on labor-force composition.
Immigrants' TANF Eligibility, 1996–2003: What Explains the New Across-State Inequalities? 1

Why did some states adopt stringent TANF-eligibility policies toward immigrants, while others implemented more lenient rules throughout the post-1996 welfare reform period? We use immigrant-specific welfare rule measures to examine predominant theoretical frameworks for understanding state stringency in welfare policy. Analysis, utilizing a simultaneous equations modeling (SEM) strategy, uses annual data for all states. Results show consistent support for the median voter (primarily, the percent of liberal voters) theoretical explanation for less stringent state welfare eligibility rules regarding immigrants. While the size of the Social-Security-recipient population (tax capacity indicator) and perhaps unacceptable reproductive behavior (teen birth rate) relate to more stringent rules, key state economic and fiscal characteristics (i.e., per capita welfare expenditures, per capita personal income) explain less stringent TANF eligibility rules. Importantly recent immigrant population concentration patterns (in new and traditional destination states) add to the theoretical explanation of less stringent state TANF immigrant eligibility policies.
Monetary policy rules in practice: evidence from Turkey

This paper estimates a forward-looking monetary policy reaction function of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey by considering the period from 1990:01 to 2000:10. When the spread between the interbank rate and depreciation rate of the local currency is taken as a policy tool, the empirical evidence suggests that the Turkish Central Bank responds to its foreign exchange reserves, output and M2 growth not the forward, current or lagged inflation. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Inhomogeneity in body fat distribution may result in inaccuracy in the measurement of vertebral bone mass

When bone mineral content (BMC) is measured by dual X‐ray absorptiometry (DXA), the X‐ray beam is attenuated by bone and soft tissue. Since the component of the attenuation caused by the soft tissue overlying bone cannot be measured, the attenuation caused by soft tissue adjacent to bone is measured and is used in the calculation of BMC. The assumption underlying this approach is that the amount and composition of this adjacent soft tissue is the same as overlying bone. The aim of this study was to examine the validity of this assumption by determining whether fat distribution over and adjacent to bone differ and whether this introduces accuracy errors in the measurement of BMC by postero‐anterior (PA) and lateral scanning. BMC (posterior processes plus vertebral body, g) of the third lumbar vertebra was 17.3 ± 0.7 by PA and 17.0 ± 0.7 by lateral scanning in 27 premenopausal women (p = NS), but 2.7 g or 20% higher by PA than lateral scanning in 27 postmenopausal women (14.4 ± 0.7, 11.7 ± 0.5, p < 0.01). Thus, the respective diminutions across age by PA scanning was about half that by lateral scanning (16.8 ± 3.9%, 31.2 ± 3.0%, p < 0.01). Percent fat in the soft tissue baseline (lateral to bone, ST‐lat) used to derive BMC by PA scanning, was higher than in the soft tissue baseline (anterior to bone, ST‐ant) used to derive BMC by lateral scanning by 2.6 ± 0.7% in premenopausal women and 7.5 ± 1.0% in postmenopausal women (both p < 0.01). After adjusting for these differences in percent fat, BMC by PA and lateral scanning no longer differed. Fat content (cm2) measured by quantitative computed tomography (QCT) in an additional 46 women, was higher in the soft tissue baseline (ST‐lat) than anterior to bone in the 18 premenopausal (30.7 ± 4.2, 24.3 ± 3.5, p < 0.01) and the 28 postmenopausal women (41.6 ± 3.7, 34.1 ± 3.5, p < 0.01). Fat content in the soft tissue baseline region (ST‐ant) was higher than on either side of bone in premenopausal women (31.3 ± 5.7, 26.5 ± 4.2, p < 0.05) but less than on either side of bone in postmenopausal women (44.7 ± 4.3, 50.6 ± 5.1, p < 0.05). In summary, the differing composition of soft tissue anterior 6and lateral to bone calls to question the validity of the assumption of tissue homogeneity needed for accurate measurement of BMC by DXA. In the elderly, BMC may be too high by PA scanning, resulting in a reduced cross‐sectional diminution with age. Thus accuracy errors due to fat inhomogeneity compound those caused by osteophytes and suggests caution is needed in making inferences regarding the magnitude of age‐related bone loss determined in vivo using bone densitometry.
Testing for Asymmetric Pricing Behaviour in Irish and UK Petrol and Diesel Markets

This paper empirically tests whether Irish and UK petrol and diesel markets are characterised by asymmetric pricing behaviour. The econometric assessment uses threshold autoregressive models and a dataset of monthly refined oil and retail prices covering the period 1997 to mid-2009. A methodological note is included on the importance of the specification of the number of possible regimes. In particular, the possibility of conflicting price pressures arising from short-run dynamics in retail prices and responses to disequilibrium errors needs to be explicitly modelled. For both the Irish and UK liquid fuel markets at national levels, the paper concludes that there is no evidence to support the “rockets and feathers” hypothesis that retail prices rise faster than they fall in response to changes in oil prices. It is still possible that a lack of competition at a more local level may accommodate asymmetric pricing behaviour.
Do the Largest Firms Grow and Diversify the Fastest? The Case of U.S. Dairies

We analyze growth and diversification of U.S. dairy farms by examining changes in ten size cohorts and new entrants through three successive censuses. We reject Gibrat's law and the mean reversion hypothesis of growth. Growth rates appear bimodal where the smallest and largest farm cohorts grow fastest. All cohorts diversify but the largest farms do not diversify as rapidly as medium-sized farms. New entrants are generally large, and they diversify more rapidly than comparably sized incumbents do. These data suggest that scale economies persist even for the largest cohort of U.S. dairy farms and scale economies dominate scope economies for large farms. Copyright 2009 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association
Assessing Sex Differences on Treatment Effectiveness from the Drug Abuse Treatment Outcome Study (DATOS)

Men and women entering drug treatment programs are known to differ in demographic characteristics and psychosocial behavioral patterns. To be effective, any such program that caters to individuals from both sexes should identify and address these gender-based variations. Studies have also reported clinical differences in the effect of drugs on men and women addicts. Here, we examine whether the treatment is equally effective on men and women, when several demographic covariates are controlled. We construct a “problem severity index” to categorize individuals based on how acute their problems were at the start of the program. We also examine how the choice of treatment modality affects treatment success. Cumulative logit models were used in our analysis. The choice of treatment modality is sex specific, although sex did not appear to be a significant factor for treatment effectiveness when we controlled for other explanatory variables.
Using Financial Data to Measure Effects of Regulation

THE positive analysis of government regulation-measuring the actual rather than the intended effects of regulation-is an increasingly popular topic of research. Often this analysis concentrates on the "wealth effects" of regulation. At one extreme the "public-interest" or consumer-protection hypothesis predicts that regulation confers net benefits on consumers at the expense of regulated firms. At another extreme the "capture" or producer-protection hypothesis predicts that regulated firms receive net benefits at the expense of consumers. Yet another possibility is that regulators themselves receive net benefits at the expense of both consumers and regulated firms. All of these hypotheses make predictions about the effects of regulation on the value of the regulated firm. ' Nevertheless, very little of the empirical research on regulation incorporates the methodology which has been developed in finance to study the behavior of security values. The efficient-markets/rational-expectations hypothesis2 posits that security prices reflect all available information. Hence, unanticipated changes in regulation result in a current change in security prices, and the
Ethnic Identification in the Former Soviet Union: Hypotheses and Analyses

Abstract The article seeks to ‘measure’ the concept of ‘identification as titular’ in regard to the members of five ethnic groups in the former Soviet Union (Bashkirs, Karels, Komis, Tatars and Yakuts) and the factors which strengthen, or conversely weaken, such identification. In order to do this it uses multigroup confirmatory factor analysis and multigroup structural equation modelling. Identification is mainly associated with a sense of national superiority and duration of residence in the home republic. The pattern among Yakuts, however, differs from that of the other ethnic groups and would require further detailed analysis.
Characterization of the Microglial Response to Cerebral Ischemia in the Stroke-Prone Spontaneously Hypertensive Rat

Stroke-prone spontaneously hypertensive rats (SHRSP) sustain more ischemic damage after middle cerebral artery occlusion than do their reference strain, the Wistar-Kyoto rat (WKY). The cause of increased stroke sensitivity is still under investigation. In general, SHRSP display a greater response to inflammatory stimuli than do WKY. Because inflammatory cells may influence the extent of damage in experimental stroke, this study has investigated the acute inflammatory response to focal ischemia in SHRSP and WKY. Adult male SHRSP (n=5) and WKY (n=5) were anesthetized and underwent distal middle cerebral artery occlusion. After 24 hours of recovery, infarct volume, neutrophil counts, and activated microglia counts were performed. SHRSP displayed more ischemic damage than did WKY (135±4.7 versus 102±4.7 mm3 [mean±SEM], P <0.005). Brain neutrophil counts were extremely low in both strains. SHRSP displayed significantly more activated microglia than did WKY in the ipsilateral hemisphere (respective SHRSP versus WKY values [mean±SEM] were 88±3.6 versus 51±3.4 per mm2 for the cortical peri-infarct region [P <0.005] and 183±7.9 versus 156±3.7 per mm2 for the infarct core [P <0.05]) and in the contralateral hemisphere (eg, respective SHRSP versus WKY values were 102±3.2 versus 50±3.1 per mm2 for the sensorimotor cortex [P <0.0001]). No neutrophils and very few activated microglia were found within the brains of naive rats. However naive SHRSP possessed more microglia (resting and activated) than did naive WKY. This study demonstrates a more pronounced microglial response to focal ischemia in SHRSP compared with WKY and provides evidence of a potential role for inflammatory processes in response to ischemic damage.
The welfare function of income in Belgium: An empirical investigation

This paper is an empirical investigation into the validity of some theses posed in [5]. There it is stated (1) that the individual is able to evaluate his income level on a zero-one scale in a cardinal way, and (2) that the resulting evaluation U(y) of a steady income system at a level y under specific assumptions is approximately equal to A (y: uo2) where A is a lognormal distribution function with parameters u, o2. In this paper these statements are empirically investigated on the basis of a consumer survey conducted by the Belgian Consumer Union. Moreover, approximate relationships between the values of u, o2 and several variables, such as income, family size, age, job, stability of income, etc., have been derived. It turns out that o2 is an individual constant, but that u can be explained for a considerable part by the variables family size and income level. Most notable is the dependence of the individual's welfare evaluation or income, a phenomenon that is called "preference drift. " It might lead to major changes in parts of the existing economic theory on consumer behavior and social welfare.
Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area

In this paper we assess the possibility of producing unbiased forecasts for fiscal variables in the euro area by comparing a set of procedures that rely on different information sets and econometric techniques. In particular, we consider ARMA models, VARs, small scale semi-structural models at the national and euro area level, institutional forecasts (OECD), and pooling. Our small scale models are characterized by the joint modelling of fiscal and monetary policy using simple rules, combined with equations for the evolution of all the relevant fundamentals for the Maastricht Treaty and the Stability and Growth Pact. We rank models on the basis of their forecasting performance using the mean square and mean absolute error criteria at different horizons. Overall, simple time series methods and pooling work well and are able to deliver unbiased forecasts, or slightly upward biased forecast for the debt-GDP dynamics. This result is mostly due to the short sample available, the robustness of simple methods to structural breaks, and to the difficulty of modelling the joint behaviour of several variables in a period of substantial institutional and economic changes. A bootstrap experiment highlights that, even when the data are generated using the estimated small scale multi country model, simple time series models can produce more accurate forecasts, due to their parsimonious specification.
Make and Buy—An Alternative to Make or Buy? An Investigation of Four Theoretical Explanations in Danish Municipalities

The question of whether public organizations should provide services themselves or buy them from external suppliers has become increasingly relevant due to public-sector modernization. The literature has focused on it as a question of either make or buy. Contrarily, we focus on the reasons for public organizations to simultaneously produce and contract out similar services. The article investigates different theoretical explanations for concurrent make and buy. A survey of Danish municipalities shows that make and buy seems to be a steady choice. However, the results show little support for the theoretical explanations indicating the need for more public-oriented explanations.
Androgen Receptor Status in Nontumoral and Malignant Human Colorectal Tissues

Abstract: Data on androgen receptor (AR) status of nontumoral and malignant human colorectal tissues are compared using ligand binding assay in 22 patients who underwent surgery for colorectal cancer at the “M. Ascoli” Cancer Hospital Centre in Palermo, Sicily. In nontumoral tissues, ARs were predominantly (67%) positive, with 25% of cases having a 0/+ status. Conversely, malignant tissues showed only 32% of cases with a positive (+/+) AR status, with a proportional increase of 0/+ cases (from 25% to 55%); the extent of AR‐negative (0/0) cases remained fairly constant (8‐9%). Overall, our evidence indicates that nontumoral colorectal tissues have a predominantly positive (+/+) AR status and that this condition shifts towards a significant decrease of AR‐positive cases in cancer tissues. Studies on the relation between status of sex steroid receptors and specific biomolecular markers in human colorectal tumors are currently being carried out in our laboratories.
On the Interplay Between Network Function Mapping and Scheduling in VNF-Based Networks: A Column Generation Approach

Middleboxes (i.e., firewall, cache, proxy, etc.) are hardware appliances designed to enforce security and performance policies. Being an integral part of today’s cloud and enterprise networks, these middleboxes are expensive, hard to manage and to maintain. Network function virtualization has emerged as a promising technology that replaces these hardware appliances by software ones known as virtual network functions (VNFs). Unlike hardware middleboxes, VNFs can be instantiated and deployed on virtual machines running on commodity servers which ensures their flexibility, manageability, cost-efficiency, and reduce their time-to-market. However, efficiently processing services through an ordered chain of VNFs, called service function chaining (SFC), is not trivial. It requires solving three inter-related sub-problems; the network functions (NFs) mapping sub-problem, the traffic routing sub-problem and the service scheduling sub-problem. This paper first highlights the existing interplay between the three sub-problems and then presents a formulation of the SFC scheduling (SFCS) which exploits interactions between NFs mapping onto VNFs, service scheduling and traffic routing. Given the complexity of the SFCS problem, we present a novel primal–dual decomposition using column generation that solves exactly a relaxed version of the problem and can serve as a benchmark approach. We enhance our solution methodology with a diversification technique to help improve the quality of the obtained solutions. We evaluate numerically our method and show that it can attain optimal solutions substantially faster. Finally, we present several engineering insights for improving the network performance.
Effect of the tap changer position of Zeus 765/400kV transformer on the steady state and voltage stability performance of the Cape system

Previously published research findings [1] on the impact of tap changer position on the steady state performance of distribution networks indicate that very little impact results from varying the tap changer position. In this paper, a similar investigation is carried out, but on a network with very high voltage transmission lines operating in parallel with a well-developed corridor of 400kV lines. The per-unit impedance of a line is reduced drastically as the line voltage is increased. When the design voltage of the transmission lines is high, the transformer impedance becomes dominant and plays a key role in the system. This paper investigates the effect of varying the impedance of a 765/400kV transformer on the steady-state (loadflow and active power losses) and voltage stability of the Cape corridor.
Measures of Downside Risk Under Conditions of Downturn in the Real Estate Market

Abstract Some authors suggest that the use of standard deviation as a measure of total risk for returns on real estate leads to risk overestimation, as the classical Markowitz model does not account for the skewness of financial data, thus making the results unreliable. According to the available literature, risk calculated on the basis of standard semideviation may actually better reflect the nature of property investment. However, in this context, the question of whether or not this measure will lead to risk underestimation at a time of a downturn in the real estate market, resulting in inadequate investment decisions aggravating investor losses arises. Therefore, the present paper presents portfolios constructed using either classical risk measures or measures based on “downside deviations” of rates of return. The results of investment in these portfolios are analyzed.
The Nominal Interest Rate Yield Response to Net Government Borrowing: GLM Estimates, 1972-2012

This study provides current empirical evidence on the impact of net U.S. government borrowing (budget deficits) on the nominal interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes. The model includes an ex ante real short-term real interest rate yield, an ex ante real long-term interest rate yield, the monetary base as a percent of GDP, expected future inflation, the percentage growth rate of real GDP, net financial capital inflows, and other variables. This study uses annual data for the period 1972-2012. GLM (Generalized Linear Model) estimates imply, among other things, that the federal budget deficit, expressed as a percent of GDP, exercised a positive and statistically significant impact on the nominal interest rate yield on ten-year Treasury notes over the study period.
Alternative Definitions of the Budget Deficit and its Impact on the Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in South Africa

This paper investigates the usefulness of different definitions of the budget deficit and their impact on fiscal sustainability. The analysis shows that a number of alternative definitions of the budget deficit are useful, some even extremely useful, for analyzing the impact of fiscal policies. The choice among the alternatives depends mainly on the purpose for which it is intended. However, despite the usefulness of the different definitions of the deficit, their order of magnitude in South Africa differs only marginally from that of the operational deficit. In our analysis of fiscal sustainability, the full range of possibilities have been accommodated in the different scenarios with the operational deficit. With a finite time horizon medium term current fiscal policy can be said to be sustainable or intertemporaly consistent, if it is able to achieve a given target level of the debt/GDP ratio. Unlike the infinite time horizon case, this target level might be nonzero. In this paper the latter case has been investigated. Three possible alternatives were tested and the results indicate that there is little room for fiscal maneuverability in South Africa without jeopardizing fiscal discipline policies. In the longer term, different definitions of the budget balance do not change this reality. JEL Classification Numbers: H62