Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
Beating the Accuracy Trap : Overinvestment in Demand Forecasting and Supply Chain Coordination under Downstream Competition

We study supply chain contracting with investment in demand forecasting under downstream competition. Supporting some recent industry observations, we show that under common pricing schemes, such as wholesale price or two-part tariff, downstream firms overinvest in demand forecasting. Analyzing the bounds and determinants of overinvestment, we demonstrate that the wholesale price and two-part tariff schemes can result in overinvestment up to twice the optimal level. As a result, the supply chain surplus can also suffer substantially as the wholesale price and two-part tariff schemes can result in nearly a full loss of supply chain efficiency. Further the losses with the best contracting scheme in the class of quadratic contracts, which also include the wholesale price and two-part tariff contracts, can amount to as much as half the first-best supply chain surplus. Examining the factors that determine the severity of the efficiency loss, we show that an increased number of competing retailers and uncertainty in consumer demand tend to increase inefficiency, whereas increased consumer market size, consumer price sensitivity and demand forecast costs reduce the loss in supply chain surplus. Finally, we propose a “market-based” contracting scheme that fully coordinates the supply chain in quantities and demand forecast investment, and demonstrate its desirable properties for implementability. ∗Graduate School of Business, Stanford University, Stanford CA 94305-5015. e-mails: hshin@stanford.edu, tunca tunay@stanford.edu. We are thankful to Hau Lee, Haim Mendelson, Evan Porteus, Jin Whang, Bob Wilson and seminar participants at Stanford University for valuable comments.
A Randomized Method for Integrated Exploration

We present an integrated exploration strategy for mobile robots. The method is based on the randomized incremental generation of a data structure called sensor-based random tree (SRT), which represents a roadmap of the explored area with an associated safe region. A continuous localization procedure based on natural features of the safe region is integrated in the scheme. Both the information gain and the localization potential are taken into account when evaluating candidate configurations for exploration. Simulations and experiments on the MagellanPro robot show the performance of the proposed technique
El papel del comportamiento del profesor, la motivación y la emoción en la predicción de la participación social académica en clase

Introduccion: la participacion social academica aborda los comportamientos de participacion estudiantil que implican interacciones sociales con companeros y profesores. Objetivo: se analizo el papel del comportamiento percibido del profesor, el valor de la tarea, la autoeficacia academica, el disfrute y la verguenza en clase en la prediccion de la participacion social academica. Metodo: los estudiantes de psicologia de una importante universidad nacional completaron cuestionarios de autoinforme que evaluaban las variables del modelo. Se evaluo un modelo propuesto mediante el analisis de senderos. Resultados: el modelo mostro un buen ajuste a los datos, explicando el 31% de la varianza. Se detectaron influencias positivas del comportamiento percibido del profesor en el valor de la tarea (β = 0,42), la autoeficacia academica (β = 0,19) y el disfrute de la clase (β = 0,24); del valor de la tarea en el disfrute de la clase (β = 0,52); y del disfrute de la clase en la participacion social academica (β = 0,44). La autoeficacia academica afecto negativamente la verguenza en clase (β = -0,38), mientras que la verguenza en clase (β = -0,44) y el valor de la tarea (β = -0,24) mostraron una influencia negativa en la participacion social academica. Conclusion: se demostro la utilidad de modificar el comportamiento del profesor y la motivacion como medio para afectar las emociones. El disfrute y la verguenza en clase fueron los predictores mas fuertes de la participacion social academica. Se sugirio la importancia de las variables individuales en la moderacion de la influencia contextual en la participacion.
WMAP 3-yr primordial power spectrum

We constrain the form of the primordial power spectrum using Wilkinson Microwave Anisotropy Probe (WMAP) 3-yr cosmic microwave background (CMB) data (plus other high resolution CMB experiments) in addition to complementary large-scale structure (LSS) data: 2dF, Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS), Ly α forest and luminous red galaxy (LRG) data from the SDSS catalogue. We extend the work of the WMAP team to that of a fully Bayesian approach whereby we compute the comparative Bayesian evidence in addition to parameter estimates for a collection of seven models: (i) a scale-invariant Harrison ‐Zel’dovich (HZ) spectrum; (ii) a power law; (iii) a running spectral index; (iv) a broken spectrum; (v) a power law with an abrupt cut-off on large scales; (vi) a reconstruction of the spectrum in eight bins in wavenumber and (vii) a spectrum resulting from a cosmological model proposed by Lasenby & Doran (LD). Using a basic data set of WMAP3 + other CMB + 2dF + SDSS, our analysis confirms that a scale-invariant spectrum is disfavoured by between 0.7 and 1.7 units of log evidence (depending on priors chosen) when compared with a power-law tilt. Moreover, a running spectrum is now significantly preferred, but only when using the most constraining set of priors. The addition of both Lyα and LRG data independently suggests much lower values of the running index than with basic data set alone, and interestingly the inclusion of Lyα significantly disfavours a running parametrization by more than a unit in log evidence. Overall, the highest evidences, over all data sets, were obtained with a power-law spectrum containing a cut-off with a significant log evidence difference of roughly 2 units. The natural tilt and exponential cut-off present in the LD spectrum is found to be favoured decisively by a log evidence difference of over 5 units, but only for a limited study within the best-fitting concordance cosmology.
A New Method for the Estimation of Broadband Apparent Albedo Using Hyperspectral Airborne Hemispherical Directional Reflectance Factor Values

The broadband albedo values retrieved from satellite sensors are usually compared directly to ground measurements. Some authors have noted the necessity of high spatial resolution albedo estimates to fill the gap between ground measurements and satellite retrievals. In this respect, hyperspectral airborne data with high spatial resolution is a powerful tool. Here, a new operational method for the calculation of airborne broadband apparent albedo over the spectral range of 350–2500 nm is presented. This new method uses the Hemispherical Directional Reflectance Factor (HDRF) as a proxy for the narrowband albedo, assuming a Lambertian approximation. The broadband apparent albedo obtained is compared to that estimated using theapparent albedo equation devised for the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). Airborne data were collected using the Airborne Hyperspectral Scanner (AHS). Field data were acquired at three sites: a camelina field, a green grass field, and a vineyard. The HDRF can be used to approximate the narrowband albedo for all View Zenith Angle (VZA) values for flights parallel to the solar principal plane (SPP); for flights orthogonal to the SPP, discrepancies are observed when the VZA approaches −45°. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) values in the range 0.009–0.018 were obtained using the new method, improving upon previous results over the same area (RMSEs of 0.01–0.03). The relative error in the albedo estimation using the new method is 12% for −36.2° < VZA < 40.8° in the case of flights parallel to the SPP and less than 15% for −13° < VZA < 45° and 45% for VZA = −45° for flights orthogonal to the SPP. The good performance of the new method lies in the use of the at-surface solar irradiance and the proposed integration method.
Achievable Secrecy Rates for the Broadcast Channel With Confidential Message and Finite Constellation Inputs

This paper considers the Broadcast Channel with Confidential Message (BCCM) where the sender attempts to send altogether a common message to two receivers and a confidential message to one of them. The achievable rate regions are derived for the power-constrained Gaussian BCCM with finite input alphabet using various transmission strategies. Namely, time sharing, superposition modulation and superposition coding are used as broadcast strategies. For superposition modulation and superposition coding, the maximal achievable rate regions are obtained by maximizing over both constellation symbol positions and the joint probability distribution. The maximization of the secrecy rate for wiretap channels is also studied as a particular case of the BCCM problem. We compare the considered transmission strategies in terms of percentage gains in achievable rates. We concentrate on the impact of the finite alphabet constraint on achievable rates, and show that this constraint may change well known results obtained in the Gaussian case. We show also that the secrecy constraint can change the shape of the achievable rate region in superposition modulation used in some standards when symbols are equiprobable. On a more practical side, it is shown that a performance close to the optimum can be obtained by strategies with reduced complexity.
AMW-SMC: A fast and accurate localization method for mobile targets in wireless networks

For mobile localization, one of the main difficulties is how to obtain the targets' locations quickly and accurately. In this paper, by exploring the characteristics of mobility model, we propose an Adaptive Multidimensional scaling-dependent Weighting based Sequential Monte Carlo (AMW-SMC) method for mobile localization. The main feature of the AMW-SMC method is speeding-up the localization process while preserving high precision on the results. Simulations using synthetic moving traces and experiments using real moving traces with NanoPAN5375RF motes are presented in this paper to validate the performance of the proposed AMW-SMC method.
The impact of drug eluting stents availability on the treatment choice among medical therapy, percutaneous or surgical revascularisation and on 4-year clinical outcome in patients with coronary artery disease: a cohort study

Objective To investigate the influence of the availability of drug eluting stents (DES) on treatment choice (TC) among medical therapy (MT), coronary by-pass surgery (CABG) or percutaneous coronary interventions (PCI) and the consequent clinical outcomes in patients hospitalised because of coronary artery disease (CAD). Design Observational study comparing two cohorts hospitalised immediately before, and 3 years after DES availability. Setting Thirteen hospitals with cardiology facilities. Patients 2131 consecutive patients with at least one coronary stenosis >50% at coronary angiography (CA) after exclusion of those with acute myocardial infarction or previous CABG or associated relevant valvular disease. Main outcome measures Treatment choice after CA and 4-year clinical outcomes. Results TC among MT (27% vs 29.2%), PCI (58.6% vs 55.5%) and CABG (14.5% vs 15.3%) was similar in the DES and bare metal stent (BMS) periods (p = 0.51). At least one DES was implanted in 57% of patients treated with PCI in 2005. After 4 years, no difference in mortality (13.8% vs 13.2%, p = 0.72), hospital admissions for myocardial infarction (6.6% vs 5.2%, p = 0.26), stroke (2.2% vs 1.7%, p = 0.49) and further revascularisations (22.3% vs 19.7%, p = 0.25) were observed in patients enrolled in the DES and BMS periods. Only in patients with Syntax score 23–32 a significant change of TC (p = 0.0002) occurred in the DES versus BMS period: MT in 17.4% vs 31%, PCI in 62.2% vs 35.8%, CABG in 20.3% vs 33.2%, with similar 4-year combined end-point of mortality, stroke, myocardial infarction and further revascularisations (45.3% vs 34.2%, p = 0.087). Conclusions Three years after DES availability, the TC in patients with CAD has not changed significantly as well as the 4-year incidence of death, myocardial infarction, stroke and further revascularisations. In subgroup with Syntax score 23–32, a significant increase of indications to PCI was observed in the DES period, without any improvement of the 4-year clinical outcome.
PROPRE: PROjection and PREdiction for multimodal correlations learning. An application to pedestrians visual data discrimination

PROPRE is a generic and modular unsupervised neural learning paradigm that extracts meaningful concepts of multimodal data flows based on predictability across modalities. It consists on the combination of three modules. First, a topological projection of each data flow on a self-organizing map. Second, a decentralized prediction of each projection activity from each others map activities. Third, a predictability measure that compares predicted and real activities. This measure is used to modulate the projection learning so that to favor the mapping of predictable stimuli across modalities. In this article, we use Kohonen map for the projection module, linear regression for the prediction one and we propose multiple generic predictability measures. We illustrate the properties and performances of PROPRE paradigm on a challenging supervised classification task of visual pedestrian data. The modulation of the projection learning by the predictability measure improves significantly classification performances of the system independently of the measure used. Moreover, PROPRE provides a combination of interesting functional properties, such as a dynamical adaptation to input statistic variations, that is rarely available in other machine learning algorithms.
Aid, Policies, and Growth

The authors of this paper use a new database on foreign aid to examine the relationships among foreign aid, economic policies, and growth of per capita GDP. In panel growth regressions for 56 developing countries and 6 four-year periods (1970-93), they find that the policies that have a great effect on growth are those related to fiscal surplus, inflation, and trade openness. They construct an index for those three policies and have that index interact with foreign aid. They have instruments for both aid and aid interacting with policies. They find that aid has a positive impact on growth in developing countries with good fiscal, monetary and trade policies. In the presence of poor policies, aid has no positive effect on growth. This result is robust in a variety of specifications, which include or exclude middle-income countries, include or exclude outliers, and treat policies as exogenous or endogenous. They examine the determinants of policy and find no evidence that aid has systematically affected policies, either for good or for ill. They estimate an aid allocation equation and show that any tendency for aid to reward good policies has been overwhelmed by donors' pursuit of their own strategic interests. In a counterfactual, they reallocate aid, reduce the role of donor interests and increasing the importance of policy. Such a reallocation would have a large positive effect on developing countries' growth rates.
Dominance and Equivalence for Sensor-Based Agents

This paper describes recent results from the robotics community that develop a theory, similar in spirit to the theory of computation, for analyzing sensor-based agent systems. The central element to this work is a notion of dominance of one such system over another. This relation is formally based on the agents' progression through a derived information space, but may informally be understood as describing one agent's ability to "simulate" another. We present some basic properties of this dominance relation and demonstrate its usefulness by applying it to a basic problem in robotics. We argue that this work is of interest to a broad audience of artificial intelligence researchers for two main reasons. First, it calls attention to the possibility of studying belief spaces in way that generalizes both probabilistic and nondeterministic uncertainty models. Second, it provides a means for evaluating the information that an agent is able to acquire (via its sensors and via conformant actions), independent of any optimality criterion and of the task to be completed.
Oxidative Stress Alleviation by Sage Essential Oil in Co-amoxiclav induced Hepatotoxicity in Rats

Clinical studies have shown that several classes of antibiotics are evidenced in drug induced liver injury. The combination of amoxicillin with clavulanic acid is commonly cited in such cases. Accordingly, the present study investigated the potential hepatoprotective and in vivo antioxidant efficacy of sage essential oil in Co-amoxiclav induced hepatotoxicity in rats. Sage essential oil was hydrodistilled from the aerial parts of Salvia officinalis L. and its compositional analysis was characterized by Gas chromatography-Mass spectroscopy. Rats were treated singly or concomitantly with Co-amoxiclav and sage essential oil for a period of seven days. The major components of sage oil as identified by GC-MS were 1,8-cineole, β-pinene, camphor, β-caryophyllene, α-pinene and α-caryophyllene comprising 26.3%, 14.4%, 10.9%, 7.8%, 6% and 2.5% respectively. The in vivo exposure of rats to Co-amoxiclav resulted in hepatotoxicity biochemically evidenced by the significant elevation of serum AST, ALT, ALP, γ-GT, total bilirubin and histologically conveyed by hydropic, inflammatory and cholestatic changes in rats’ liver. Oxidative stress mediated the hepatic injury as indicated by the significant escalation in lipid peroxidation, as well as, the significant depletion of both glutathione level and glutathione dependent enzymes’ activities. The concomitant administration of sage essential oil with Co-amoxiclav exerted a hepatoprotective effect via inducing an in vivo antioxidant defense response eventually regressing, to some extent, the hepatoarchitectural changes induced by Co-amoxiclav. Results suggest that sage essential oil is a potential candidate for counteracting hepatic injury associating Co-amoxiclav and this effect is in part related to the complexity of its chemical composition.
Comparison of thromboelastometry (ROTEM®) with standard plasmatic coagulation testing in paediatric surgery.

BACKGROUND Thromboelastometry (ROTEM(®)) might be useful to detect intraoperative coagulation disorders early in major paediatric surgery. This observational trial compares this technique to standard coagulation tests. METHODS Intraoperative blood sampling was obtained in children undergoing elective major surgery. At each time point, standard coagulation tests [activated partial thromboplastin time (aPTT), prothrombin time (PT), and fibrinogen level] and ROTEM(®) analyses (InTEM, ExTEM, and FibTEM) were performed simultaneously by trained hospital laboratory staff. RESULTS A total of 288 blood samples from 50 subjects were analysed. While there was a poor correlation between PT and aPTT to ExTEM clotting time (CT) and InTEM CT, respectively, a good correlation was detected between PT and aPTT to clot formation time, and a very good correlation between fibrinogen level and FibTEM assay (r=0.882, P<0.001). Notably, 64% of PT and 94% of aPTT measurements were outside the reference range, while impaired CT was observed in 13% and 6.3%, respectively. Standard coagulation test results were available after a median of 53 min [inter-quartile range (IQR): 45-63 min], whereas 10 min values of ROTEM(®) results were available online after 23 min (IQR: 21-24 min). CONCLUSIONS PT and aPTT cannot be interchangeably used with ROTEM(®) CT. Based on the results of ROTEM(®), recommended thresholds for PT and aPTT might overestimate the need for coagulation therapy. A good correlation was found between the fibrinogen level and the FibTEM assay. In addition, ROTEM(®) offered faster turnaround times.
Analysis on the socio-economic driving forces of land use changes in mountain area

The Upper Reaches of the Heihe River is the water source of the whole Basin, in which the way of land use different from the middle and lower reaches of the Heihe River because of particular natural features and human activities. The variation processes of the land use structure in the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River have an important effect on water resources and ecosystem of the whole watershed. The methods of remote sensing image analysis, transfer matrix and principal component analysis were employed in this paper to analyze quantitatively the course of spatial and temporal variations of three main types that woodland, grassland and cultivated land in mountain area of the Upper Reaches of the Heihe River Basin. The artificial motivation of land use changes in the study area had been indicated. The results showed: (1) the variation stages of land use demonstrated clearly in the study area, in which three kinds of land use types as cultivated land, grassland and forest land had transformed obviously in two stages of 1987-1999 and 1999-2010, that is, the area of forest decreased continuously, the area of grassland decreased at the first stage and then increased at the second stage, the cultivated land increased sharply; (2) spatial variation of single land of three types was remarkable, the distribution of forest land presented acreage in the eastern part more large than western and southern less than northern part; the area of grassland were the largest, and distribution patterns of it display more in eastern and more in south; the area of cultivated land were the least, they mainly distributed along the valleys of the Heihe River, and (3) the forest and grassland degraded seriously. The main causes of land degradation in the area under study led by population increase with excessive use of land.
NEW PRECISION ORBITS OF BRIGHT DOUBLE-LINED SPECTROSCOPIC BINARIES. V. THE AM STARS HD 434 AND 41 SEXTANTIS

We have detected the secondary component in two previously known spectroscopic binaries, HD 434 and 41 Sex, and for the first time determined double-lined orbits for them. Despite the relatively long period of 34.26 days and a moderate eccentricity of 0.32, combined with the components’ rotationally broadened lines, measurement of the primary and secondary radial velocities of HD 434 has enabled us to obtain significantly improved orbital elements. While the 41 Sex system has a much shorter period of 6.167 days and a circular orbit, the estimated V mag difference of 3.2 between its components also makes this a challenging system. The new orbital dimensions (a1 sin i and a2 sin i) and minimum masses (m1 sin3 i and m2 sin3 i) of HD 434 have accuracies of 0.8% or better, while the same quantities for 41 Sex are good to 0.5% or better. Both components of HD 434 are Am stars while the Am star primary of 41 Sex has a late-F or early-G companion. All four stars are on the main sequence. The two components of HD 434 are rotating much faster than their predicted pseudosynchronous velocities, while both components of 41 Sex are synchronously rotating. For the primary of 41 Sex, the spectrum line depth changes noted by Sreedhar Rao et al. were not detected.