Miracle-dz/UniFAR-FTUs huggingface dataset:
News Shocks , Price Levels , and Monetary Policy

This paper presents a model in which improvement in the future TFP is, on impact, associated with increases in consumption, stock prices, and real wages, and decreases in GDP, investment, hours worked, and inflation. These predictions are consistent with empirical findings of Barsky and Sims. The model features research and development, sticky nominal wages, and the monetary authority responding to inflation and consumption growth. The proposed policy rule fits the actual Federal Funds rate as closely as an alternative policy rule responding to inflation and GDP growth, and is better at reducing distortion due to the nominal wage stickiness. JEL Classification: E00, E30, E52 ;
INFLUENCE OF ANTERIOR THALAMIC INACTIVATION ON THE RETRIEVAL OF SPATIAL REFERENCE MEMORY AND WORKING MEMORY IN THE RADIAL ARM MAZE

Previous studies have shown that the anterior thalamic nuclei (ATN) contain a large population of head direction cells, which fire as a function of an animal’s directional orientation in an environment, thereby providing a compass-like representation guiding navigation. Recent work has suggested that directional orientation information stemming from the ATN is critical for the generation of hippocampal and parahippocampal spatial representations, and may contribute to the establishment of unique spatial representations in radially oriented tasks such as the radial arm maze. While studies have confirmed that ATN lesions impair the acquisition of new spatial information in variants of the radial maze, few have attempted to dissociate its unique contributions to acquisition vs. retrieval and spatial reference vs working memory in radial tasks. Here, we addressed these questions by training rats in a radial arm maze procedure to asymptotic levels, and after 24hrs, animals were administered muscimol inactivation of the ATN before a 4 trial probe test. We report impairments in retrieval of both spatial reference and working memory, suggesting a general absence of improved navigation across post-inactivation training trials. Taken together, the results above suggest that the ATN modulates the retrieval of
Testing Accretion Disk Theory in Black Hole X-Ray Binaries

We present results from spectral modeling of three black hole X-ray binaries: LMC X-3, GRO J1655-40, and XTE J1550-564. Using a sample of disk-dominated observations, we fit the data with a range of spectral models that includes a simple multitemperature blackbody (DISKBB), a relativistic accretion disk model based on color-corrected blackbodies (KERRBB), and a relativistic model based on non-LTE atmosphere models within an α prescription (BHSPEC). BHSPEC provides the best fit for a BeppoSAX observation of LMC X-3, which has the broadest energy coverage of our sample. It also provides the best fit for multiple epochs of Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) data in this source, except at the very highest luminosity (L/LEdd ≳ 0.7), where additional physics must be coming into play. BHSPEC is also the best-fit model for multiepoch RXTE observations of GRO J1655-40 and XTE J1550-564, although the best-fit inclination of the inner disk differs from the binary inclination. All our fits prefer α = 0.01 to α = 0.1, in apparent disagreement with the large stresses inferred from the rapid rise times observed in outbursts of these two sources. In all three sources our fits imply moderate black hole spins (a* ~ 0.1-0.8), but this is sensitive to the reliability of independent measurements of these system parameters and to the physical assumptions that underly our spectral models.
Exploring Common Factors in the Term Structure of Credit Spreads: The Use of Canonical Correlations

This paper provides a new approach to model the common variation in the term structure of credit spreads. The novelty is that common factors are extracted using canonical relations between credit spreads and observable economic variables. We show how these factors can be used to test if a given set of macroeconomic and financial variables is sufficient to capture all the systematic variation in response variables, such as credit spreads. We find that credit spread innovations are subject to three common factors, two strong factors and one weak factor, and they account for 49% of the total variation. The first strong factor is related to the contemporaneous state of the economy, the second represents expectations about future economic conditions, and the weak factor is mainly related to the error correction processes in short-term spreads.
Automation of Energy Demand Forecasting Abstract Automation of Energy Demand Forecasting

AUTOMATION OF ENERGY DEMAND FORECASTING Sanzad Siddique, B.S. Marquette University, 2013 Automation of energy demand forecasting saves time and effort by searching automatically for an appropriate model in a candidate model space without manual intervention. This thesis introduces a search-based approach that improves the performance of the model searching process for econometrics models. Further improvements in the accuracy of the energy demand forecasting are achieved by integrating nonlinear transformations within the models. This thesis introduces machine learning techniques that are capable of modeling such nonlinearity. Algorithms for learning domain knowledge from time series data using the machine learning methods are also presented. The novel search based approach and the machine learning models are tested with synthetic data as well as with natural gas and electricity demand signals. Experimental results show that the model searching technique is capable of finding an appropriate forecasting model. Further experimental results demonstrate an improved forecasting accuracy achieved by using the novel machine learning techniques introduced in this thesis. This thesis presents an analysis of how the machine learning techniques learn domain knowledge. The learned domain knowledge is used to improve the forecast accuracy.
Tackling Compliance Deficits of Data-Protection Law with User Collaboration - A Feasibility Demonstration with Human Participants

In the recent past, there have been frequent reports on privacy violations by service providers on the Web. The providers are overstrained with the legal implications of processing personal data. Data-protection authorities in turn are overburdened with the enforcement of the regulations. Users themselves typically cannot identify those violations, due to missing expertise in data-protection law. In this paper we propose and evaluate CAPE (Collaborative Access to Privacy Enhancement), an approach that makes data-protection law accessible to all parties involved in the processing of personal information. To this end, we transform legal expertise on data protection into intuitive questions that anyone can answer. CAPE is 'Web 2.0', in the sense that individuals answer the questions they can, and they benefit from the answers of others. To identify violations, we compare the answers to answer patterns defined apriori that indicate a violation. The main innovation is the combination of Web 2.0 functionality with the structured approach (sequences of closed questions in particular) lawyers use to identify violations. In extensive user studies, we show that users can identify 81% of those violations legal experts find. Further, individuals answer our questions with a high degree of agreement, independent from their background knowledge.
An approximation of the Gilbert-Elliott channel via a queue-based channel model

We investigate the modeling of the well-known burst-noise Gilbert-Elliott channel (GEC) using a recently introduced queue-based channel (QBC) model. The QBC parameters are estimated by minimizing the Kullback-Leibler divergence rate between the probability of error sequences generated by the QBC and the GEC, while maintaining identical bit error rates and correlation coefficients. The accuracy of fitting the GEC via the QBC is evaluated in terms of channel capacity and autocorrelation function. Numerical results show that the QBC provides a very good approximation of the GEC for various channel conditions. It thus offers an interesting alternative to the GEC while remaining mathematically tractable.
Trigger Points and Budget Cuts: Explaining the Effects of Fiscal Austerity

The authors propose and solve an optimizing model that explains counterintuitive effects of fiscal policy in terms of expectations. If government spending follows an upward-trending stochastic process that the public believes may fall sharply when it reaches specific "trigger" points, then optimizing consumption behavior and simple budget-constraint arithmetic imply a nonlinear relationship between private consumption and government spending. Th is theoretical relation is consistent with the experience of several countries. Copyright 1993 by American Economic Association. (This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
Neuro-Optimizer: A New Artificial Intelligent Optimization Tool and Its Application for Robot Optimal Controller Design

The main objective of this paper is to introduce a new intelligent optimization technique that uses a predictioncorrection strategy supported by a recurrent neural network for finding a near optimal solution of a given objective function. Recently there have been attempts for using artificial neural networks (ANNs) in optimization problems and some types of ANNs such as Hopfield network and Boltzmann machine have been applied in combinatorial optimization problems. However, ANNs cannot optimize continuous functions and discrete problems should be mapped into the neural networks architecture. To overcome these shortages, we introduce a new procedure for stochastic optimization by a recurrent artificial neural network. The introduced neurooptimizer (NO) starts with an initial solution and adjusts its weights by a new heuristic and unsupervised rule to compute the best solution. Therefore, in each iteration, NO generates a new solution to reach the optimal or near optimal solutions. For comparison and detailed description, the introduced NO is compared to genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization methods. Then, the proposed method is used to design the optimal controller parameters for a five bar linkage manipulator robot. The important characteristics of NO are: convergence to optimal or near optimal solutions, escaping from local minima, less function evaluation, high convergence rate and easy to implement.
Socioeconomic Success and Health in Later Life: Evidence from the Indonesia Family Life Survey

Indonesia has been undergoing a major health and nutrition transition over the past twenty or more years and there has begun a significant aging of the population as well. In this paper the authors focus on documenting major changes in the health of the population aged 45 years and older, since 1993. They use the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), a large-scale, broad-based panel survey of households and individuals, covering 4 full waves from 1993 to 2007/8. Much of the changes can be seen as improvements in health, such as the movement out of undernutrition and communicable disease as well as the increasing levels of hemoglobin. On the other hand, other changes such as the increase in overweight and waist circumference, especially among women, and continuing high levels of hypertension that seems to be inadequately addressed by the health system, indicate that the elderly population in Indonesia is increasingly exposed to higher risk factors that are correlated with chronic problems such as cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. In addition to documenting long-run changes in health and its distribution among the elderly Indonesian population, they examine correlations between socio-economic status, principally education and percapita expenditure, and numerous health outcome and behavioral variables.
Loss of Intimacy: A Cost of Caregiving in Aphasia

The sudden loss of intimacy can have a dramatic effect on satisfaction in a relationship. As many caregivers shift roles and try to personally adjust to their new reality, a steep drop in intimacy can often simultaneously occurs. Aphasia presents a significant barrier to opening discussions about intimacy and sexual contact. The purpose of this article is to discuss the current literature regarding intimacy in aphasia and present solutions for addressing this complex issue. One of the simplest solutions to addressing this gap in care is having rehabilitation professionals introduce these topics early in the rehabilitation process. This is optimally achieved through interdisciplinary training in the use of effective supported communication strategies for persons with aphasia. Another solution is to create community-centered events that allow couples to address issues related to intimacy after rehabilitation ends. This article describes one such program, an Aphasia Couples Retreat, ran as a collaboration between a local nonprofit and university program in the Pacific Northwest. The retreat provides couples with the opportunity to discuss and address issues related to intimacy, learn new skills, and gain support from an interdisciplinary team of students, speech–language pathologists, occupational therapists, and psychologists.
Fasting Blood Sugar and Serum Triglyceride as the Risk Factors of Colorectal Adenoma in Korean Population Receiving Screening Colonoscopy

In several previously reported studies, metabolic syndrome (MS) was found to be associated with colorectal adenomas. While the incidence of colorectal adenoma is growing in Korean population, there are only few studies that examined the association between MS and colorectal adenoma in Korea. The aim of this study was to investigate relationships between prevalence of colorectal adenoma and MS components. We conducted a cross sectional study using data from individuals who had undergone complete colonoscopy for health examinations at the Health Promotion Center of Korea University Medical Center from July 1, 2004 to July 31, 2010. A total of 7481 subjects (4459 males and 3022 females) were included; 1733 subjects with pathologically proven adenoma were assigned to the case group, and other 5748 subjects were assigned to the non-case group. All the participants underwent colonoscopy and received blood biochemical tests (fasting blood sugar [FBS], insulin, lipid profile, hemoglobin, blood urea nitrogen [BUN], creatinine). Univariate analysis showed that the prevalence of colorectal adenoma was higher in individuals with higher blood pressure, body mass index (BMI), total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), FBS and lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterols (HDL-C) levels, compared to those with low levels. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that high levels of BMI (OR 1.17, 95% CI 1.01-1.34, P trend = 0.01), TG (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.07-1.51, P trend = 0.006), and FBS (OR 1.19 95% CI 1.01-1.40, P trend = 0.05) were significantly associated with prevalence of colorectal adenoma. Subjects with high levels of BMI, TG and FBS have increased prevalence of developing colorectal adenoma in Korea.
Get real in individual participant data (IPD) meta‐analysis: a review of the methodology

Individual participant data (IPD) meta‐analysis is an increasingly used approach for synthesizing and investigating treatment effect estimates. Over the past few years, numerous methods for conducting an IPD meta‐analysis (IPD‐MA) have been proposed, often making different assumptions and modeling choices while addressing a similar research question. We conducted a literature review to provide an overview of methods for performing an IPD‐MA using evidence from clinical trials or non‐randomized studies when investigating treatment efficacy. With this review, we aim to assist researchers in choosing the appropriate methods and provide recommendations on their implementation when planning and conducting an IPD‐MA. © 2015 The Authors. Research Synthesis Methods published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
All Elephants are Bigger than All Mice

We investigate the concept product as an expressive feature for de- scription logics (DLs). While this construct allows us to express an arguably very common and natural type of statement, it can be simulated only by the very ex- pressive DL SROIQ for which no tight worst-case complexity is known. How- ever, we show that concept products can also be added to the DLs SHOIQ and SHOI, and to the tractable DL EL ++ without increasing the worst-case com- plexities in any of those cases. We therefore argue that concept products provide practically relevant expressivity at little cost, making them a good candidate for future extensions of the DL-based ontology language OWL.
Longitudinal knowledge strategising in a long-term healthcare organisation

Long-term healthcare organisations significantly benefit from Knowledge Management (KM). However, the extant literature has little empirical support for this statement. Using the KM instrument developed by Bontis and Fitz-enz (2002), this paper extends prior studies by evaluating behaviours within a not-for-profit context over several years. As such, it tests a comprehensive causal model that illustrates the inputs and outputs of effective KM. Longitudinal data was collected during three temporal periods which provides unique insight related to the optimal strength of each causal link over time. These results also broaden the initial findings developed by Bontis and Fitz-enz.
The new 'multi-journalism': Journalists' and educators' perceptions of the influences of the internet upon journalism and its implications for journalism education

This work uses grounded theory methodology to develop a theory of the Internet's influences upon journalism and its implications for journalism education. It sets out to address research questions asking what journalists' and educators' electronic discussions reveal about the influences of the Internet upon journalism and what the implications of this might be for journalism education. Sub-questions ask how the Internet's influences upon journalism might be categorised and, further, ask what new tasks and practices journalists have adopted in their work as a result of the use of the Internet. The literature review reveals scholarship in the field has developed rapidly during the course of the study, however while much of the research has targeted specific ·phenomena in the journalism I Internet I education interface, there has been a dearth of literature attempting to synthesise the three in a holistic theorybuilding exercise such as this. Certainly, there have been no attempts to use a grounded theory approach to the analysis of electronic discussion list data in building such theory. The data upon which the analysis is based are the discussions about journalism practice and journalism education on four electronic discussion lists during a nine week period in 1997. The 1217 messages posted to the lists were sorted according to their relevance to the research questions and the 629 messages selected were coded and sorted using the NUD.IST qualitative research software and analysed in accordance with grounded theory procedures recommended by Strauss (1987) and Strauss and Corbin (1990). The study illustrates that the Internet has had a major influence upon journalism which has important implications for journalism education. The thesis presents a descriptive categorisation of the Internet's influences upon journalism. The Internet's actual influences upon journalism are identifiable and numerous, and include 169 new journalistic tasks and practices. The influences are so profound in some respects that they force a re-evaluation of journalism and its purpose. The influences of the Internet upon the context in which journalism is practised and upon the practice of journalism are momentous. They represent the emergence of an endeavour which, while retaining many of the characteristics of journalism as it has been known, is too fragmented, multi-dimensional and multi-purposed to continue to be classified as such, a notion which has profound implications for journalism education and necessitate a review of its aims and practices. The term "Multi-Journalism" has been coined to describe this new manifestation of journalism as an occupation. Numerous opportunities for further research have been identified, covering all three domains addressed in the thesis: the context in which journalism is practised, the practice itself, and the implications of Internet influences for journalism education.
How to measure a fiscal stimulus

This paper discusses alternative ways of measuring fiscal stimuli along with their respective advantages and shortco­ mings. The specific definition and measurement of a fiscal impulse depends largely on what it is meant to analyse. Basically, two possibilities emerge: from an “input side” perspective fiscal stimuli could be measured by changes in government finances, whereas if the focus is on the output side a fiscal stimulus is assessed in terms of its effect on macroeconomic developments. Moreover, the definition of fiscal stimuli is conditioned to the reference point chosen for the analysis.
Generalised information criteria in model selection

SUMMARY The problem of evaluating the goodness of statistical models is investigated from an information-theoretic point of view. Information criteria are proposed for evaluating models constructed by various estimation procedures when the specified family of probability distributions does not contain the distribution generating the data. The proposed criteria are applied to the evaluation of models estimated by maximum likelihood, robust, penalised likelihood, Bayes procedures, etc. We also discuss the use of the bootstrap in model evaluation problems and present a variance reduction technique in the bootstrap simulation.
Intraday Patterns in the Cross-Section of Stock Returns

Motivated by the literature on investment flows and optimal trading, we examine intraday predictability in the cross-section of stock returns. We find a striking pattern of return continuation at half-hour intervals that are exact multiples of a trading day, and this effect lasts for at least 40 trading days. Volume, order imbalance, volatility, and bid-ask spreads exhibit similar patterns, but do not explain the return patterns. We also show that short-term return reversal is driven by temporary liquidity imbalances lasting less than an hour and bid-ask bounce. Timing trades can reduce execution costs by the equivalent of the effective spread.