Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Second, alarmists have been peddling a second analysis, called the Mann hockey stick, which is so contradictory to these assumptions of strong positive feedback that it is amazing to me no one has called them on the carpet for it. In brief, Mann, in an effort to show that 20th century temperature increases are unprecedented and therefore more likely to be due to mankind, created an analysis quoted all over the place (particularly by Al Gore) that says that from the year 1000 to about 1850, the Earths temperature was incredibly, unbelievably stable. He shows that the Earths temperature trend in this 800 year period never moves more than a few tenths of a degree C. Even during the Maunder minimum, where we know the sun was unusually quiet, global temperatures were dead stable.
Time is up! Write down your answer. As I will try to demonstrate, the correct answer is probably very close to (a).90% of the temperature anomaly this and last summer is the result of natural variability with a minor assist from global warming.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 10, 2015
Chapter 7, by Stephen R. EdwardsConserving Biodiversity: Resources for Our Future
But it is unsettling how our feelings about climate change (and the political rhetoric and policy changes) can waver based upon what happens over only a year or two. Yet, the rate of both surface and deep ocean warming since the 1950s, after accounting for natural El Nino and La Nina fluctuations, suggests no cause for alarm.
Something strange is happening to the north Pacific. It is setting sea temperature records, scrambling weather patterns, damaging ecosystems, and nudging up the global temperature. The scientists who have observed it call it after what it looks like on temperature maps of the Pacific behold the blob. The warmth of 2015 so far and the expectation that it will get even warmer has already given rise to headlines that the pause has ended and that global warming has resumed. However one does not follow from the other. The blob and the El Nino are weather events not climate, natural fluctuations and not long-term trends. Their contribution to world temperature does not represent a resumption of long term anthropogenic warming in the same way that the cool year of 2007 did not represent the onset of a rapid decline in global temperature. --David Whitehouse, Global Warming Policy Forum, 6 September 2015
The difference between the two measurement sets may indicate a real albedo difference betweeen the two measurement periods, but part of it is undoubtedly due to calibration and algorithm differences. The fact that the models are closer to the ERBE data and farther from the CERES data raises the question of how they are being and should be tuned to satellite measurements.
Ruling Gives Natural Gas Edge to Replace Nuclear Energy in California
If we compare the HADCRUT4 data to the CMIP5 models (historic and RCP6.0) for the period of 1997 to 2012, Figure 1, we can see that the models over-estimate the warming from 65S to 65N (the vast majority of the planet) and underestimate the warming at the poles. Therefore, if the Cowtan and Way (2013) data are increasing the warming in the Arctic, they are creating a greater divergence from the models there, but failing to reduce the differences between the models and data where the models overestimate the warming.
The problem is that according to the raw, unadjusted CERES data, there??s an average net TOA radiation imbalance of ~ 5 W/m2 and that amount of imbalance would have fried the planet long ago. That means that there is some kind of systematic error between the three datasets (solar, reflected solar, and longwave).
/s/ Jerry C. Bostick JSC, Principal Investigator, Science Directorate, 23 years
Last, a senior writer for the Weekly Standard and father of three, provides a reader-friendly but thorough analysis of the demographic crisis afflicting the West and the "Very Bad Things" that will follow population decline. Clearly argued and entertainingly written, Last covers the how and why of our refusal to reproduce, and the consequences that will follow.
In the real world, the sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic warmed naturally at a much faster rate than the rest of the global oceans. See Figure 25. To determine the data for the rest of the global oceans, it was assumed that the North Atlantic represents 11.5% of the surface of the global oceans, and the scaled North Atlantic data was then subtracted from the global data. (For the percentage, see the NOAA GCDC webpage here .) As shown, the sea surface temperatures of the North Atlantic warmed at a rate that was more than 3.5 times faster than surface of the rest of the global oceans.
Instead of seeking greenhouse gas reductions, what we need to foster, as Wildavsky called it, is resilience: the ability to withstand changes, and bounce back from them. We need to encourage others to build their own climate resilience as well. What makes for climate resilience? I would argue that we can establish climate resilience with three efforts.
Skeptics are not the team which has a UN coordinating panel, government funded institutions, or associations, committees, and NGOs worth hundreds of millions that are devoted to propagating their words. Nor do skeptics have a sympathetic media, or multimillion dollar ad campaigns funded by taxpayers.
HVS writes that the extremists who he calls the skeptics (once again with another sentence n the I sjlv lgger in this word) have effectively separated from science. But this applies not the extremists who he calls the alarm lard. Science in the main from only able to travel a begrnsat motstnd the alarm lard, environmental organizations and fretagsintressen. It writes HVS, tilltit to anvnt climate crisis rhetoric that public scientifically proven truth without any backlash n tying nven in a trouser pocket.
Kudos to the NZZ for publishing Prof. Ackermanns commentary.
Spencer: Addressing Criticisms of the UAH Temperature Dataset
Dreamers cast aside logic in rush for shot at $50m lottery bonanza ...
One thing is certain: the Great Game and the Long War will be the two global and generational challenges confronting the West in the next 30 years. While the two challenges at times overlap, they remain analytically distinct. Attempts to conflate the two challenges with a new geopolitical concept like "Greater Middle East" risk confusing the issues. The Great Game? While the West remains fixated on the continental dimension, the East shows more lucidity in giving as much importance to the maritime dimension (more on that later). The Long War? Due to mass migration, the sociopolitical umma no longer coincides with the geopolitical Dar al-Islam.20
Solving such a complex problem as declining fertility is not going to be easy. Last at least tells us what doesn't work. As with many social problems, government intervention isn't very successful. Bonus payments to expectant mothers, paid paternity leave, public holidays, "Motherhood Medals," and tax incentives and subsidies have barely moved the needle in Russia, Japan, and Singapore. "People cannot be bribed into making babies," Last concludes.
""Our lawsuit is a huge, historic first step toward holding companies accountable for these pernicious pollutants that threaten our health, economy, environment, and quality of life now and increasingly in the future. The eventual effects . . . increasing asthma and heat-related illnesses, eroding shorelines, floods and other natural disasters, loss of forests and other precious resources.'
So here are some other relevant tidbits about ClimateCounts' leadership that viewers may have heard from me had Hirshberg not gotten cold feet about appearing on CNBC's "On the Money" program on June 19.
President Obamas CO2 Plan Hurts Americans
Go towards London (left) and within 5 km is the non-motorway section of the M25 London orbital motorway, blue on the map. This is 8 lanes all told with queues a lot of the time, is a toll road. Queen Elizabeth bridge southbound and the Dartford tunnel northbound. Both expel heat into the air, a bridge and ventilated tunnel. South side to the left of that see the bright circles? Heavy oil storage tanks, river pontoon for fuel delivery tankers. Next across is the RWE Littlebrook power station. Being oil is probably not run continuously, about 1.4GW output and has additional gas turbine generator sets. This will eject circa 2GW of waste heat, up prevailing wind. RWE web page on station , head photo is looking east toward bridge and weather station.
Washington, D.C., July 24, 2003The Competitive Enterprise Institute praises the approach to the science of climate change announced today by the Bush administration in a report released jointly by the Departments of Commerce and Energy. The report lists the scientific goals of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program, including a better understanding of natural climate variability, resolving conflicts between predicted and observed climate patterns, and the role technological resilience should play in responding to any future climatic trends.
Why risk their reputations and challenge "accepted" science on this one issue if they didn't have honest concerns? Besides, since when is it a crime to question "accepted" science?
Note: as far as I can tell from the paper, the data for the Midriff of the Gulf of California is for the 1 deg latitude by 1 deg longitude grid of 29N-30N, 114W-113W.
Snow has been falling right along the New South Wales ranges, in places that didnt see snow all winter, for some it is the heaviest in several years.
It seems it is not just the UK that has had a run of cold winters. NoTricksZone reports that Germany has had exactly the same run of 5 cold winters, and, as they point out, what applies to Germany usually applies to much of Central Europe.
Then. we continue to be drenched with stories claiming the continued effects of global warming. Yet the preferred technique for assessing this properly, the Mean Annual Global Surface Temperature Anomaly Record (which has been used to claim global warming in all previous IPCC Reports) has now been practically constant with little change for over 18 years. The excuses they give are pitiful.
"With 13.9 million people unemployed, two million more than when Barack Obama took office, the economy is at the forefront of the 2012 campaign, already underway with a crop of GOP candidates eager to criticize president's policies."
Arctic sea ice reached its annual maximum extent on March 21, after a brief surge in extent mid-month. Overall the 2014 Arctic maximum was the fifthlowest in the 1978 to 2014 record. Antarctic sea icereached its annual minimum on February 23, and was the fourth highest Antarctic minimum in the satellite record. While this continues a strong pattern of greater-than-average sea ice extent in Antarctica for the past two years, Antarctic sea ice remains more variable year-to-year than the Arctic.
Not only is it safe to consume caloric sweeteners at recommended levels, it is important for consumers to understand that high fructose corn syrup and table sugar have the same amount of calories and studies like this indicate your body metabolizes them about the same.
Since Hansens forecast was made, sea level in New York has risen less than 2 inches. The rate of sea level rise shows no correlation withatmosphericCO2.
JC comment: Yes, the science is far from settled. We cannot close the Earths energy budget, and our models dont adequately simulate multidecadal ocean variability.
"The real news is that there is now a tremendous amount of animosity and distrust between the U.N. establishment and the environmental establishment. They know that they need each other, which is why the mainstream environmental NGOs have not made a stink and why the establishment press hasn't made it a front page story. But the fissure arising out of the U.N.'s incompetence is going to take a long time to heal and could easily grow much wider. That is the very good news coming out of Hopenchangen."
Our air is clean. We don't need these job-killing, health-impairing EPA regulations. But our governing elites will not give up their power or perks or their propensity for playing with people's livelihoods, living standards, health and well-being, for virtually no climate stability, air quality or other benefits.
Arctic sea ice extent is the highest in almost a decade .
Until 1996, EPA typically estimated the effect of facility modifications on emissions by comparing current actual emissions with reasonably likely future emissions, a so-called "actual-to-future-actual" methodology. As early as 1990, EPA indicated it intended to replace this methodology for all emitters except utilities21 with a methodology called "actual-to-potential," in which the decision to apply NSR is determined by the emitter's "potential to emit" (PTE). Which test was actually used was determined on a case-by-case basis until 1996, when EPA told the nonutility regulated community to presume the "actual-to-potential" method applied.
Scientists aim to improve photosynthesis to increase food and fuel production:
It is hard to imagine a "Global NATO" in whatever shape or form that would continue to ignore the global commons the way today's NATO does. It is time for NATO's maritime commitment to match its continental commitment. To put it only half in jest: Either NATO will go out to sea, or it will go out of business.
It's a good thing the committee didn't put Gore under oath. He'd be sanctioned for wanton and reckless disregard for the truth if not perjury in both his testimony and the movie he produced to terrify young children, so that they pressure their parents into demanding passage of cap-tax-and-trade legislation.
the Developing World is not joining-in with CO2 emission reductions nor does it have any intention of doing so.The failure of worldwide action negates the unilateral action of any individual western Nation
First it was wheat and now its coffee. Whats next? Bacon & eggs?
The previous guidance was discouraging debate rather than encouraging it among knowledgeable people. The new guidance is clearer and a very much better document. And Benny Peiser, Director of The Global Warming Policy Foundation also welcomed the Royal Societys decision to revise. He said: The former publication gave the misleading impression that the science is settled ??? the new guide accepts that important questions remain open and uncertainties unresolved.
If the observed warming over the last half century can anywhere be claimed to be unusual, it would have to be where it was greatest in the Arctic. Both satellite and surface station data show a warming of about two degrees Celsius since the 1970??s. But the surface station data (see the Figure below) show that warming in context. Recent warming was very similar to the previous warming from 1900 to 1940, reaching virtually the same peak.
Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the slickest money grubbing stunt since Al Sharpton met Tawana Brawley. 160 secular self-ordained priests of the Environment have taken out an ad in the far-left New York Times which
Fortunately United Launch Alliance's successful lift-off on Friday proves we can restore pride in American efforts in space, especially if a new Republican Congress and a new president will step up and re-commit NASA to the path JFK blazed, more than fifty years ago.
EPA's draconian regulations will be rejected by the courts in the coming months, and the next administration will repeal whatever is still on the books come January 2017. The next United Nations climate conference, taking place in Paris in early December, will be a flop: no international treaty, no binding caps, no massive payments of "reparations" to third world countries.
And theyre not kidding. Now, I grew up on a cattle ranch, Ive seen most all of the breeds, and I have a reasonably good eye for cattle and these are not your average brain-dead moo cows. They are awake and alert, and unlike regular cows, you definitely get the sense that there is a wild and wise creature looking back at you from the other side of the horns:
In the introduction to the report of their recently concluded study, the authors enunciate one of the purposes for undertaking it, writing that "if ecosystem carbon stocks increase with warming, their greater net uptake of CO 2 would slow increases in concentrations of this greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, providing a negative feedback to further greenhouse warming." What was done
While government science and media begin the ramp-up to claim 2014 as the ???hottest year ever?? China??s Sea??s biggest bivalve shows that the Middle Ages were warmer than today, when Carbon Dioxide was lower.
The imposition of new charges and fines will put pressure on firms at a time when economists are warning of a "double dip" recession as companies, consumers and the public sector all cut their spending.
The NIPCC experts also challenge the radical notion that carbon dioxide an essential gas exhaled by all humans but relentlessly demonized by the UN and many governments can be considered pollution. Of course, there is no argument over the fact that human emissions of CO2 represent a fraction of one percent of the greenhouse gases present naturally in the atmosphere. But the NIPCC scientists point out that the gas is not only not harmful, it is largely beneficial.
WASHINGTON M icro cars can give motorists top-notch fuel efficiency at a competitive price, but the insurance industry says they dont fare too well in collisions with larger vehicles.
"Mann's defamation of me (a climate scientist) is of particular relevance in context of Mann's case against Steyn, in light of the recent ruling:
Conclusion #3: EPA interpretations have extended NSR to physical and operational changes that neither Congress nor EPA itself in past rulings intended to be subject to NSR's permitting requirements.
50 years ago, we??d never have counted this as a tropical storm. As outlined recently in New peer reviewed study: Surge in North Atlantic hurricanes due to better detectors, not climatechange , its the technology that enables counting storms that would not have been counted before. Ditto for tornadoes and sunspots.
"Irish environment minister and council president Martin Cullen insisted at a post-council press conference that ministers remained united in their absolutely determined commitment to the Kyoto protocol and that there had been no debate about alternatives to the global pact. But he implicitly acknowledged the reservations being expressed: some aspects of Kyoto seem insurmountable in the short-term time frame, he said, but the long-term economics benefits in prompting energy-efficiency were clear."
Guardian : London To Become Swampy Drowned Hot Desert Frozen Wasteland Rice Patty
The story goes that much of the missing heat is to be found in the Atlantic, with a slow-moving current speeding up in recent times so that heat is drawn down into the deep-ocean. The theory seems to be that this process runs over a 60-year cycle, for half the time with the depths warming and the surface cooling and half the time the other way round. Chen and Tung conclude that we are currently in a surface cooling phase, so the pause could last another ten years or more.
On Wednesday, Exxon agreed to stand down its legal action given Walker's agreement to withdraw his subpoena.
That imperative to reproduce used to be grounded in religion, but during the eighteenth century, secularization began to loosen the hold that religious practiceactually going to church rather than just self-identifying by sectused to have on people's behavior. The effect of religious practice on fertility is obvious from statistics. Indeed, the effects of religion on fertility can be "so powerful that even if you're not the churchgoing type yourself, you'll be affected if your parents are."
???We found that previous estimates of historical temperatures during the Roman era and the Middle Ages were too low,?? says Esper. ???Such findings are also significant with regard to climate policy, as they will influence the way today??s climate changes are seen in context of historical warm periods.??
Two recent papers, one in Earth-Science Reviews and the other in Chinese Science Bulletin , have studied key chemical contents in micro-drilled giant clam shells and coral samples to demonstrate that in the South China Sea the warm period of the Middle Ages was warmer than the present.
I cannot identify myself with the international U.S. policies and once I began to be interested in the roots, essence, development, and consequences of the actions led by the organizations and structures of the U.S. after the war everywhere in the world, I turned into an unequivocal opponent of these policies. I must unambiguously classify it as ruthless, profit-seeking, and insatiable imperialism that won't be stopped by anyone or anything. The consequences primarily include the "burned down lands" and millions of casualties in the whole world. The causes are the power interests of the world's hegemony and more recently also the desperate attempt to prevent the ultimate collapse of the American empire (which is, however, inescapable assuming that only standard tools are used, and this is the main threat both for Europe and the mankind although this threat is rarely mentioned)!!!
Finally, and as spotlighted in Steve Milloys January 2008 FoxNews.com column Gingrich Out-Greens Al Gore , the Gingrich-Maple A Contract With the Earth was a frightening example of someone offering solutions to non-existent problems relating to a topic about which he knows little other than what he has skimmed in the New York Times .
All the trends show cooling, especially in the area where the ship is trapped. The southern ocean is cooling, and has been for a long time, especially since 1996. The latitudes in the vicinity of Commonwealth Bay have been cooling since 1980. There is more ice because Mother Nature is freezing more ice.
By combining the two results and accounting for the relative global percentages of land and water, Idso was able to estimate a global sensitivity factor of 0.113 C per W/m2. Thus a doubling of atmospheric CO2 would increase temperatures by no more than 0.45 C. Idso then looked at different global data sets on various factors such as cloud cover, radiation, and temperatures over water and land and consistently found a sensitivity factor of about 0.10 C per W/m2 that would lead to a temperature change of 0.4 C.
That is not ethical. It is intolerant and totalitarian. It is arrogant, immoral, lethal, and racist.
"Similarly, in the case of our NAS report, far too much attention was paid to the hastily prepared summary rather than to the body of the report. The summary claimed that greenhouse gases are accumulating in Earth's atmosphere because of human activities, causing surface air temperatures and subsurface ocean temperatures to rise. Yet, the full text noted that 20 years was too short a period for estimating long term trends, a crucial point that the summary neglected to mention. Our primary conclusion was that despite some knowledge and agreement, the science is by no means settled."
"The House GOP is stepping up to the plate. Newcomers on the congressional oversight subcommittee on health will probe the who, what, when, where, and why of the Obama administration's HHS Obamacare waiver program."
After the break, Neil MacDonald's "Reality Check". A reader comments;
The latest White House documents delivered to House Republicans on Friday again highlight the extent to which senior administration officials braced for the fallout as Solyndra a company President Obama had personally visited was about to go under.
As a result, in 2006, Mother Jones magazine reported: "BP vowed to cut its own CO2 emissions and invest heavily in solar, wind, and other alternative technologies; it even supported the Kyoto climate treaty."
This will contribute to a doubling of the regions energy-related carbon dioxide emissions to 2.3 gigatonnes by 2035, according to the IEA.
The post also links to an article from October in the UK Daily Express , in which an independent forecaster challenges the Met Offices prediction: