Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
In Climate Models Fail , using a number of different datasets, I illustrated how the climate models used by the IPCC for their 5 th Assessment Report could not simulate climate variables such as surface temperatures (land surface air, sea surface and combined land+sea surface), precipitation and sea ice area. Theres another splendid way to present the model failings (that wasnt presented in the book): by comparing the warming rates of global land surface air temperatureswith the warming rates ofglobal sea surface temperatures. Its astounding that the models perform so poorly. See Table 1.
So the first question is whether the proxy records Mann chose are reliable indicators of temperature. Some have been questioned. He has a series from central China that we believe is more a moisture signal than a temperature signal, says Jacoby. He included it because he had a gap. That was a mistake and it made tree ring people angry.
Energy Subsidy Group To Release Blueprint for Tax/Consumer-Funded Boondoggle
37 Terry Anderson and Donald R. Leal, Free-Market Environmentalism (New York, NY: Palgrave Macmillan, revised edition, 2000); Jonathan H. Adler, editor, Ecology, Liberty & Prosperity: A Free Market Environmental Reader (Washington, DC: Competitive Enterprise Institute, 2000); Richard L. Stroup and Roger E. Meiners, Cutting Green Tape: Toxic Pollutants, Environmental Regulation and the Law (San Francisco, CA: Independent Institute, 2000); James L. Johnston, "A General Theory of Regulation," U.S. Association for Energy Economists: Proceedings, October 1996.
A few years ago, environmental guru, Merry Prankster, and Whole Earth Catalog author Stewart Brand caused a minor stir with an article he wrote in the MIT publication, Technology Review . Brand, who was an early advocate of the back to the land movement of the 1960s and 1970s, had done some re-thinking, and concluded that environmentalist opposition to things like urbanization, population growth, biotechnology, and nuclear power generation, was wrong and needed to change.
GISS deletes SST data from areas with seasonal sea ice and extends land surface data out over the oceans (Arctic and Southern) with its 1200km radius smoothing.
How vulnerable are America's youth to this brainwashing? With young people spending 7.5 hours a day viewing television, music and social media like Facebook, they're almost ready-made targets for political groups that use these communications tools to promote narrow views. Without facts and data to counter the simplistic, entertaining and superficially persuasive messages especially when they are delivered in schools children tend to accept what authority figures put in front of them.
Schmittner and colleagues found that when using these newly available proxies from both land and ocean areas, not only was their central estimate of climate sensitivity (how much the earth?s temperature will change with a doubling of the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide) a bit lower than the IPCC central estimate, but more importantly, Schmittner et al.?s determination of the uncertainty about their estimate virtually rules out climate sensitivities above 6 C. This finding is in stark contrast to the IPCC entertaining the possibility of a ?fat right-hand tail? to the distribution of potential values including climate sensitivity values as high as 10 C or greater. In their Abstract, Schmittner et al. summarized their findings:
OK, so 2010 and 2013 were above average, and presumably 2011 and 2012 were below average. Wow. Half the time above, and half below? I can certainly see why that deserved a headline.
CNBC's Rick Santelli Goes Bonkers In On-Air Debate Over Debt Ceiling:
This view is shared by Maine Gov. Paul LePage (R). "These National Marine Monuments serve only one purpose excluding commercial fishing activity from certain segments of the ocean," he wrote in a letter to Obama in August. Fishermen are particularly concerned about being denied access to the seafood-rich Cashes Ledge. Robert Vanasse, executive director of the fishing advocacy group Saving Seafood, told the AP that the monument proposal ignores protections already in place in Cashes Ledge, including a prohibition on dredging and bottom trawling.
Another harmful example of apparent antibiotechnology bias appeared in the British medical journal Lancet. This now infamous paper by Arpad Pusztai, then at the Rowett Research Institute in Aberdeen, Scotland, claimed to show that modifying potatoes with a gene for a substance toxic to insects damaged rats ' immune systems and stimulated abnormal cell division in their digestive tracts. But many research groups have shown that the experiment 's methodology was fundamentally flawed and that no conclusions about the safety of biotech foods could be drawn from it. After an extensive review into the paper 's methods, the British Royal Society concluded: "On the basis of this paper, it is wrong to conclude that there are human health concerns with the process of GM itself, or even with the particular genes inserted into these GM potatoes. "
Heartland Institute Climate Experts React to Approval of Lima Accord
The GCF aspires to be a $100 billion per year wealth transfer from wealthy countries to others, surely to then rise over the years. It is central to the upcoming talks this December in Paris when the administration is expected to agree to a successor to the failed Kyoto treaty. Paris, whose draft text was recently revealed, is a treaty in everything but name, as President Obama seeks to dodge Senate exercise of its shared role in the treaty process, by insisting that Paris is not a treaty because he says it isn't.
However, that post also illustrated a very important point: the sea surface temperatures for the larger portionrepresenting the South Atlantic, Indian and West Pacific Oceans or about 53% of the surface area of the global oceansactually cooled between the major El Nio events. Refer to Figure 10. Its Figure 5-23 from my book Who Turned on the Heat? where this topic is also discussed in detail.
The EIA report can be downloaded here: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/servicerpt/bingaman/pdf/sroiaf(2005)02.pdf. My TCS column on the report is located here: http://www.techcentralstation.com/041905F.html.
It's been a rough few weeks for the "eco-progressive" fringe.
Although new technology "constitutes the most effective response to concerns about possible changes in our climate," says the report, "in the short term, there are no technologies that make plausible the goals sought by the Kyoto Protocol."
A longer timescale p tskilliga decades to make a net assimilation of vegetation and sea. A Increased carbon dioxide acts as gdning fr vxtligheten Dr. vxtmassa in various forms enriched. The ocean acts also as a snka but the process is lngsammare np laboratoriebnken p due to ocean stable temperature stratification. Over the past 50 clean has averaged about half of the fossil utslppen frsvunnit the sea and vegetation. It happened to assimilation in the sea framgr the lngsamma frsurningen of sea water. An estimate of kllor and snkor in medelvrde worldwide over the past decade can be seen in figure 2. To frvxla nettouppehllet time scale for the time scale for photosynthesis and respiration r a frekommande misunderstanding. This is completely irrelevant d it is the time scale for the global representative vrdena which of course is important. Fig. 2: Kllor and snkor from anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions based Klla 2000-2008 IPCC.
New Jersey's emissions trading scheme is a failure and will be scrapped, according to Bradley Campbell, the state's commissioner of environmental protection. The Open Market Trading program was implemented under former Governor Christie Todd Whitman.
Clearly, the temporal history of Caribbean coral cover change does not bear any resemblance to the gradual and continuous decline that could have been expected from the concomitant increase in oceanic pCO2 and decrease in pH. Indeed, after suffering the sharp one-year decline caused by the white band disease outbreak, coral cover once again stabilized, which phenomenon, in the words of Schutte et al., ???could be interpreted as relatively good news?? ??? which it truly is ??? although they state that this pattern ???could also be a temporary plateau preceding a potential collapse in coral cover.?? Then, again, we could just as easily say it could also be a temporary plateau preceding a potential increase in coral cover. (Isn??t speculation wonderful?)
A third method is to make the surface of the planet more reflective, by brightening structures and painting roofs white, as well as increasing the reflectivity of deserts and oceans.
In the next five years, the global warming paradigm may fall apart if the models prove worthless There has been a lot of talk lately about the upcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report, and whether it will take into account the lack of warming since the 1990s. Everything you need to know about the dilemma the IPCC faces is summed up in one remarkable graph. The figure nearby is from the draft version that underwent expert review last winter. It compares climate model simulations of the global average temperature to observations over the post-1990 interval. During this time atmospheric carbon dioxide rose by 12%, from 355 parts per million (ppm) to 396 ppm. The IPCC graph shows that climate models predicted temperatures should have responded by rising somewhere between about 0.2 and 0.9 degrees C over the same period. But the actual temperature change was only about 0.1
The higher temperatures seen during the Last Interglacial are comparable to projections for the end of this century under the low emission scenarios contained within the recent Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
correlation between aerosol forcing and sensitivity also suggested.
I would have thought there might be some winners as well as losers out of climate change that it is not universally all bad. Indeed I have previously commented that warm weather favors coral reefs but not polar bears, click here . But it seems the conference and The Age had a single message: Well all be rooned.
For example, Brian Cox mentions that the Feynman propagator is nonzero even if the two points are space-like-separated, i.e. \[
* Surveys of young people's attitudes towards the environment show, on the surface, a reduced commitment to the environment. But they could also show that young people are more satisfied than earlier generations with progress on the environment.
A Busted El Nino and the New Weather Norm
Solar Activity: A recent study on counting sun spots was highly played up, with claims that recent solar trends are not a major contributor to changes in earths climate. In a communication, Donald Rapp, who has written extensively on climate change, states that there was little new or significant in the study. Yes, there has been a discrepancy between alternative methods of counting sunspots, partly due to how to deal with groups of clumped sunspots. Nevertheless, the differences between the two were not huge. Somewhat of a bagatelle (trifle). If this paper resolved the differences between the two, that is a nice, but minor.
Of course, the Trees Have Rights campaign states that natural conservation and protection is for the good of human beings, too, and therefore we all have an interest in putting a stop to pollution and in ensuring nature?s right to restorative justice, as the campaign website puts it (you can tell it has been written by a lawyer). But, in truth, Higgins and other greens who are demanding an end to ?ecocide? are elevating what they identify as the needs and rights of nature over the needs and rights of human beings. For them, the primary purpose of humanity is to accept our responsibilities towards the planet, to leave eco-systems alone and, where man has contributed to the alteration of nature, to restore it to its original state ? whenever that was.
North's environmental institute calls for impact assessments on fracking
The researchers estimate that increasing exports could eventually generate more than $125 billion and as many as 5 million jobsa jolt for the US economy still trying to shake off worldwide financial doldrums.
President Obama has also claimedhe can block the Suns rays to end global warming . In addition, Obama made the completely scientifically indefensible claim that the Waxman-Markey climate bill in 2009 would stop global temperature increases of up to five degrees! Obama said on June 25 , A long-term benefit is were leaving a planet to our children that isnt four or five degrees hotter. But Obamas own EPA said it wouldnt impact global CO2 levels let alone global temperatures.
The recent cooling in the atmosphere does not demonstrate that global warming has stopped for multi-year time periods. It does, however,highlight a major failing in that the multi-decadal global model predictions (and even the seasonal weahter prediction models)have predicted no such behavoir.
A new Gallup Poll to measure the public's attitudes towards global warming has found that a plurality of the public, 40 percent, are either "only a little" or "not at all" worried about global warming. Twenty nine percent said they are worried a "fair amount" and another 29 percent said they are worried a "great deal."
Date: April 24, 2010 Time: 10:00 am Central DST
It seems that EPA, to avoid fessing up to a procedural foible, has unwittingly acknowledged a serious statutory breach, leaping from the frying pan into the fire.EPA cannotreasonably tell the Court thatthe Endangerment Rule is based ona genuinely independent scientific review if, as petitioners put it,the agency??had not weighed and sifted the science, but simply assembled a literature review compiled by others whereinsuch weighing and sifting had ???already occurred.????
The glaciers began receding in the 1860s, and they continue to shrink today.
Resident scholar and F.K. Weyerhaeuser fellow, respectively, at the American Enterprise Institute
ExplainsUniversity of Colorado Prof. Roger Pielke, Jr. :When the Atlantic hurricane season starts next June 1, it will have been 2,777 days since the last time an intense (that is a Category 3, 4 or 5) hurricane made landfall along the US coast (Wilma in 2005). Such a prolonged period without an intense hurricane landfall has not been observed since 1900.
Further, many argue that citizens of developed countries must assume the greatest costs because of their historical contributions to GHG stocks, even though populations of developing countries are likely more at risk from climate change and benefit disproportionately from GHG mitigation. Current populations in developed countries apparently owe compensation in the neighborhood of hundreds of billions of dollars or more to present and future generations in developing countries. Ethical or moral judgments about international transfer payments of this scale are unlikely to generate much political traction in developed countries where economic growth already is slow, unemployment high, and the future uncertain. Further, there is no historical precedent for such massive international monetary transfers when the objectives are so vague.
America's crude petroleum export ban is an antiquated byproduct of the 1973 Arab oil embargo. Repeal is long overdue.
Any logistical and financial support is most welcomed," said the release, which was sent to Reuters on Friday. "It is to be as well stated that any future efforts or plans on Darfur should be worked out and finalized with the satisfaction and full approval of the Sudanese government." No one from Martin's office or the Canadian foreign ministry was immediately available for comment.
The Environment Agency, which will run the scheme for the Government, has refused even to publish a list of the companies that are required to register, citing the Data Protection Act.
At nearly 11 years this represents the longest period between major hurricane strikes since hurricane records began in 1851. The previous record was a little more than nine years, set from August 11, 1860 to September 8, 1869.
Appropriately tailored climate information, including GCM projections and stochasticallygenerated conditions from historical and paleodata , and the application of expert judgment, may provide informative answers to this question when approached in the manner described here.
China already emits a quarter of the world's CO2, the main gas contributing to global warming, making it the world's top emitter ahead of the United States. Its emissions have more than doubled since 2000.
Tenure, job promotions, government grants, media accolades, social respectability, Wikipedia entries, and vanity can do what gulags do, only more subtly. Alexis de Tocqueville warned of the power of the majority in American society to erect "formidable barriers around the liberty of opinion; within these barriers an author may write what he pleases, but woe to him if he goes beyond them." He could have been writing about climate science.
More than 80 per cent of the articles appeared in broadsheet titles The Times, The Daily Telegraph and the Daily Mail, the report says, ?but 55 per cent of these articles were either negative or very negative about the industry?.
Yet the Society continues producing a "stream of reports" ignoring the observed science. Kelly writes there was a pre-Christmas booklet labeled A Short Guide To Climate Science as well as a 2014 joint publication with the US National Academy of Sciences (NAS) called " Climate Change: Evidence And Causes , and another report called Resilience, " just to name a few.
One of the enduring pillars of the climate change issue is that the temperature of the Earth is increasing at an unprecedented rate weve heard it a million times over the past few decades. However, it is well known that the temperature of the Earth has not increased over the past decade, and the lack of recent warming is now receiving serious consideration in the leading scientific journals. Two recent articles are of particular interest to us at World Climate Report .
The answer to number #2 depends largely on the definition of significant, but I'd guess that even Richard Lindzen would consider the co2 contribution significant, based on his forcing calculation.
Two hours later, Dylan went outside the tent. "Dad, my boots are gone."
First, the federal government should support technology inducement prizes to encourage the development of commercially viable low-carbon technologies.
This is complete nonsense. If the absorption of relevant wavelengths is already saturated, there is no mechanism for the Earth to warm in response to increased levels of greenhouse gases
"And in recent years the rate of increase has been accelerating." (AIT, 72)
Flashback 2010: NYT's Climate Astrology: "Bundle Up, It's Global Warming' "Overall warming of the atmosphere is actually creating cold-weather extremes'
Then, well take a look at a number of Hovmoller diagrams comparing the progress so far this year to what happened in 1982. We had been using 1997 as a reference, but were well past this years event coming anywhere close to the one in 1997, so Ive switched to 1982, which was a late bloomer.
Scientists have shown under the old assumptions about CO2 accumulation rates that we can wait 10 years before we do anything about global warming without any adverse effects. Now that CO2 is not accumulating as rapidly as thought, wouldn't it make sense to wait before we commit ourselves to drastic action? A few more years may give scientists enough time to determine if global warming is truly a threat.
What truly is shocking is how little thought Sachs seems to have devoted to the policy issues raised by the carbon budget. Recall Sachs's asserted global "trajectory" of 3-3.7 C of warming under RCP8.5. If he really believes that, then the carbon budget no more than 2 C of warming means that emissions must be reduced by an amount averting about 1.5 C of warming. By how much would emissions have to be cut?
Research published in peer-reviewed science journals indicates the model-derived temperature sensitivity of Earth accepted by the IPCC is too large. Negative feedbacks in the climate system reduce that sensitivity to values an order of magnitude smaller.
A paper published in Nature last week claims that 12 million years ago the sensitivity of the Earth to carbon dioxide was profoundly different, with very high temperatures maintained despite very low levels of the bogeyman gas.
In spite of what climate alarmists routinely describe as unprecedented increases in the "twin evils" of the radical environmentalist movement, i.e., atmospheric CO 2 concentration and air temperature (a situation that some of them have described as being a greater threat to the world than either global terrorism or nuclear warfare), there has in fact been what Boisvenue and Running call a significant "greening of the biosphere." How out of tune with reality can some people get? Reviewed 13 September 2006
Achieving a more complete theoretical understanding of important climate processes needed to better understand both natural and potential human influences on the climate system;
Chapter 5, by Bruce N. Ames and Lois Swirsky GoldThe Causes and Prevention of Cancer: The Role of Environment
In late 2002, the Institute assembled a panel of scientific experts to review the revised draft of the 10-year strategic plan for the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP). The USGCRP plan is being updated to incorporate consideration of President Bush?s Climate Change Research Initiative (CCRI) activities.
The post-1950 warming shown by the Hadley record is of about the same magnitude and rate as the known natural warming between 1910 and 1940, and is therefore not unprecedented.
Sreeharsha et al . determined that over the course of the two growing seasons, the 39% increase in atmospheric CO 2 concentration led to (1) a 36% increase in season-long net photosynthesis, (2) a 29.3% increase in total plant dry weight, (3) a 38.6% increase in the number of nitrogen-producing nodules that led to (4) a 74.9% increase in total nodule dry weight, and last of all (5) a 29.0% increase in seed yield, all of which results led them to conclude that a "future elevated CO 2 atmosphere favors pigeonpea to sequester more atmospheric CO 2 and N 2 resulting in better economic yields under natural habitats."
My colleagues will be providing some commentary on what an Obama presidency means, realistically, for global warming policy. Here, I'm going to comment on environmental policy more generally.
Underlying this junk science is the idea that if you can identify particles in the airbad. The air should be spic and span.
The mean depth of the global ocean is 3700 m. As recently observed in , implicitly questioning the U.S. groups assertions in , the resolution of samples at various depths and the length of the record are both insufficient either to permit reliable measurement of ocean heat content or to permit monitoring of oceanic radiative fluxes:
These are just some of the things that climatologists have learned or have been proven wrong about in just the past year.
The 18th UN Conference on climate change negotiations has just started in Doha. This column suggests that the probability of success is a mere 2.3%. Recently, over $100 million per year was spent on fruitless negotiations. Having flogged, ever harder for 18 years, the dead horse of legally binding emission targets, the UN should close that chapter and try something new.
Muir Russel report caught red handed deleting evidence of climate scientists being caught red handed manipulating the game.
"The cloud is, finally, about to change our livesand it will all start with content."
But do I really have to listen to Stupid complaining about the system they built? If Bloomberg and Cuomo are an example, apparently so.