Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
These 1920s liberals idealized the "noble aspiration" and "fine aristocratic pride" in an imaginary Europe and considered Americans, in the words of a Lewis character, "a savorless people, gulping tasteless food," and "listening to mechanical music, saying mechanical things about the excellence of Ford automobiles and viewing themselves as the greatest race in the world."
And finally, on a different page, uber-environmentalist Bill McKibben argues that, yes, the cold weather and blizzards are the result of global warming. So it goes.
I want to pause here and talk about this notion of consensus, and the rise of what has been called consensus science. I regard consensus science as an extremely pernicious development that ought to be stopped cold in its tracks. Historically, the claim of consensus has been the first refuge of scoundrels; it is a way to avoid debate by claiming that the matter is already settled. Whenever you hear the consensus of scientists agrees on something or other, reach for your wallet, because you??re being had.
Wind??s intermittency still means that high upfront capital costs are spread over fewer hours of operation which places upward pressure on the price of the energy sold. Cost pressures are also tied to policies on renewables.
In the case of climate, the open access resource is the atmosphere's capacity to absorb GHG discharges. Those who gain from the actions that release GHGs reap the full benefit of using the atmosphere in this way, but they incur only a negligible percentage of the total costs, i.e. their personal share of any harm done by their increment to global climate change.
Unlike the legendary Great Game between England and Russia throughout the nineteenth century, the current Great Game at sea involved more than two players: America and China, the two greatest oil consumers, but also Japan and India, Malaysia and Indonesia, and other countries. This multiplicity of actors gives the seaborne Great Game a greater unpredictability. And unlike the slow moving Great Game in Central Asia in the nineteenth century, which resembles a leisurely game of chess, today's Great Game in the Asian Sea at times is more like Russian roulette, in that "incidents at sea" like the October 2006 close encounter of a Chinese sub with the USS Kitty Hawk have the potential to trigger unintended and unpleasant developments quickly.
Platinum has potential, but would need an upturn to show it was really time.
2. ..we freslr that the new observational likely range from TCR reasonably r 1 -2 o C, with a best estimate p 1:35 o C. Medelvrdet p TCR from global climate models is avsevrt higher, just below 2 o C.
3 A whole new field of medicine has emerged to deal with this topic. It is called evidence based medicine . Sounds good, no? What could be wrong with evidence? And its not entirely a bad idea, but there is an over reliance on the hard data and a belief that only this hard data can answer questions. We have already seen that this cannot be the case.
The Senate Finance Committee has ignored adverse economic impacts of the massive tax breaks and subsidies that have been provided to owners of wind turbines and wind farms and, in effect, has proposed continuation of large tax breaks for these owners all at the expense of ordinary taxpayers and electric customers.
Gowdiak told Computerworld that the hole will have a bigger impact on Java users than any previous problem.
In fact, a new record has just been attained. Antarctic sea ice has just reached an all-time record for total acreage. Day 265 of the year 2012 set an all time record, and then on day 266 that record was broken. The days 265 to 270 were the six highest Antarctic sea ice extent days of all time.
Also understand that the rates at which global surface temperature anomalies rose during the early warming period and late warming period are comparable, as shown in Figure 6. The linear trend during the late warming period is only about 12% higher than the trend of the early warming period. But the rate at which the forced component of the models rose during the late warming period is far greater (more than 3 times greater) than during the early period. See Figure 7. The fact that the trend of the forced component of the models is so much higher in the late period, while trend of the observations is relatively unchanged, suggests any number of things. One is that the additional forcings had very little impact on the rate at which the instrument-based global surface temperature observations rose. And that also is not the message we hear from the IPCC.
Some seek to exploit tragedy. Others seek to help.
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US study busts energy myths: US doesn't depend on Mideast oil
And there's more. Russia has, the White House believes, more reasons for ending the conflict. Militarily, it's a war neither Russia nor Assad can win. The only option is to keep throwing good money after bad, to prop up an Assad government that cannot restore security in the country. Worse, as Assad's forces weaken, Russia will have to throw more of its combat strength into the mix, leading to more casualties and unrest at home. Some of that unrest will be among the Russian Muslim population, who are overwhelmingly Sunni and who are not pleased at Russian participation in a sectarian war on the Shi'a side. Supporting Assad and Iran also weakens Russia's hopes for outreach to the Sunni Arabs, whose help Russia will need to jack the oil price back up. Given all that, negotiating with Russia over Syria looks like a smart play, and this is where, over and over, the Obama Administration comes out when it debates Syria policy.
But with global temperatures on the rise the 20 warmest years in the last 110 have all occurred since 1987 and the last 11 years have featured in the top 12 years on record surely this exceptionally cold (although not unprecedented) weather flies in the face of global warming?
This argument isunconvincing if the warming of recent decades is not unusual or unprecedented in the past 1300 years. As it happens, numerous studies indicate that the Medieval Warm Period (MWP)???roughly the period from AD 800 to 1300, with peak warmth occurring about AD 1050???was as warm as or warmer than the Current Warm Period (CWP).
More at the link. Until now, it appeared as though the deaths of four UNIFIL observers by Israeli shelling were the consequence of typical UN negligence in allowing Hezbollah to use their installations as "human shields". This is much, much more serious. If this report is confirmed, if someone at UNIFIL made a conscious decision to aid Hezbollah, that places the death of Canadian Paeta Derek Hess-von Kruedener in a completely different light. By broadcasting troop movements, UN actions removed the neutrality of UN observers and placed their services at the disposal of Hezbollah.
"The market is providing a host of new opportunities to selectively pay for unbundled television programming. Sales of TV shows in DVD box sets have soared, even to the point of inspiring new investment in cancelled shows. Based primarily on DVD sales, new episodes of the animated show "Family Guy" were ordered by Fox, and the network's cancelled science-fiction western series "Firefly" was turned into a $40 million motion picture. Video rental services like Netflix carry many of these TV box sets, allowing them to be viewed at an even lower price. Apple recently unveiled a service offering downloads of individual ABC shows for video iPod owners to watch on the go, while AOL has announced a joint venture with Warner Brothers to offer Webcasts of classic television shows."
CEI: Would the Club fund a pro-growth Democrat against an anti-growth Republican.
The administration has never explained why Nevada's Yucca Mountain is unacceptable, because it can't. However, it does want to help avowed Yucca foe Harry Reid in his tough reelection bid this year. Shuttering Yucca Mountain does that. Undermining sound science to keep a Senate seat arguably makes for smart politics, but it's terrible (and grossly irresponsible) policy.
The Department of Energy, for example, has used NEMS to evaluate some carbon tax proposals. See, for example, U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, "AEO Table Browser," http://www.eia.gov/oiaf/aeo/tablebrowser/ (accessed April 2, 2013).
We were surprised to find that the primary production in the tropics is not so strongly dependent on the amount of rain, says Markus Reichstein. Here, too, we therefore need to critically scrutinize the forecasts of some climate models which predict the Amazon will die as the world gets drier .
There is nothing like the gradual frndring that we see now, but HR is all about big differences in the short time. One can shake a stick that depends on large-scale svngningar in the atmosphere might be vstvindarna has changed radically, he says.
The novels of Sinclair Lewis, the journalism of H.L. Mencken and the literary criticism of Van Wyck Brooks heaped scorn on the vast and supposedly mindless Americans who worked hard at their jobs and joined civic groups Mencken's "booboisie."
38 National Energy Policy Development Group, National Energy Policy Report, May 2001, p. x.
Climate criminals will immediately jump on this and claim that glaciers are losing mass even if the surface is gaining it. This is also a lie as you can see in this time lapse of the Petermann Glacier which is clearly growing.
Yes, the stagnation was obvious and worrisome. But as Wesleyan University professor Peter Rutland has pointed out, "Chronic ailments, after all, are not necessarily fatal." Even the leading student of the revolution's economic causes, Anders slund, notes that from 1985 to 1987, the situation "was not at all dramatic."
Those natural cycles well documented in the scientific literature for at least their regional effects are forgotten. Except by some of us who have been working in the climate field for at least a few decades. Ask Weatherbell's Joe Bastardi, who has been talking about these natural cycles for years and using them to make good long-range forecasts.
Haus Carstanjen, Martin-Luther-King-Strasse, 8
Nature has an excellent article: Floods: holding back the tide . Excerpts:
As Ludwig von Mises stated, petrol is good for many things, but not for slaking your thirst. Similarly, government may be useful in some instances but not in others. The precautionary principle is good, provided it is used appropriately. We should first apply it to politics: our elected leaders should be required to produce impact studies, showing, ex ante, that their planned interventions will have a positive effect. Thus the scope of government would spontaneously be reduced to its congruent portion.
to be Christian and self-righteous at the same time isa contradiction in terms
Acidification of the oceans: Physically impossible at the very small changes in partial pressure of CO2 that we can cause.
Figures: Top: Eastern Pacific Warming (EPW) Atlantic storm tracks for seasons indicated on the plot. EPW is the traditional El Nino. Bottom left: Central Pacific Warming (CPW) or the new El Nino described in the paper and right: Eastern Pacific Cooling or La Nina. Track legend: :
The serious work of the summit began with a particularly bizarre start. The UN?s new climate boss, Christiana Figueres of Costa Rica, kicked off the climate festivities with a prayer to the ancient Mayan jaguar goddess known as Ixchel. Describing the mythic entity as a goddess associated with the moon, reason, creativity, and weaving ? while carefully omitting Ixchel?s association with war, human sacrifice, and cannibalism ? Figueres called on Ixchel to ?inspire? the climate delegates.
As an example, the historical changes and future response of the tropical Pacific mean state have been subjects of debate. Different proposed mechanisms disagree on the expected sign of change in the zonal SST gradient in the tropical Pacific in response to anthropogenic forcing. The observational record does little to clarify the situation, as trends in different observed SST records differ in even their sign (see Fig. 7). Models that simulate the largest El Niolike response have the least realistic simulations of ENSO variability, while models with the most realistic simulations of ENSO project little change in the Pacific zonal SST gradient (Collins 2005). These differences in tropical Pacific interannual variability and change have implications for Pacific decadal variability through their impact on large-scale changes in the atmospheric circulation (e.g., Alexander et al. 2002; Vimont 2005).
Declines in employment are heavier in the Mountain West (-3.5%), Great Plains (-1.4%), Oklahoma and Texas (-1.8%), Missiippie Valley (-1.5%), Mid-Atlantic (-1.3%), Southeast (-1.1%), and Midwest (-0.6%) than in California (-0.4%) and Northeast (-0.3%). "The Northeast and California fare better than other regions because of their initial economic circumstances. Namely, these regions' industries are less energy-intensive, as is hte overall composition of industry." By sheer coincidence (not), the bill's co-sponsors, Henry Waxman and Ed Markey hail from California and the Northeast.
In fact, EPA has not even come up with a plausible biological explanation for why or how super-tiny particles can cause a plethora of diseases and deaths simply by getting into lungs or bloodstreams. Its concept of "premature" deaths primarily reflects the fact that more people die on some days than others.
But he pointed out that warming has slowed down since 2000, in comparison to the rapid warming of the world since the 1970s.
far north as Germany. This 500-year period was warmer than the 20th century, Soon believes.
Nigel Lawson is an experienced author of four books. On my bookshelf at the Prague Castle I have, with a personal dedication from him, dated January 1993, ?The View from No. 11? with a subtitle which I liked very much already back then: ?Memoirs of a Tory Radical.?
Transportation. Airline travel accounts for almost 34 percent of the indirect energy consumed in the provision of transportation. The next highest energy consumption occurs in repair and maintenance of individual automobiles (nearly 19 percent) and in the use of other motor vehicles not directly fueled by the consumer (see table 5).
The Armagh Observatory in Northern Ireland has monitored and recorded the number of storms with gale winds since 1796, with a short period in the early 1800s (1825 to 1833) during which data is not available or incomplete. The record is available here: http://climate.arm.ac.uk/publications/The Storminess Record from Armagh Observatory Dr4.pdf Appendix 4 starts on page 80 and lists the Seasonal Distribution of Gales from Weather Diary at Armagh Observatory 1796-2000. The following four graphs illustrate the seasonal gales per year from 1796 to 2000. All four graphs show an increase in storms from the early 20th Century to the mid to late 20th Century. But then the frequency of gales decreases as global temperatures continues to rise.
Howard Wolfson, a deputy mayor, wrote on Twitter that his grandmother had lost a leg to diabetes. She would not have appeared in an ad, Mr. Wolfson wrote. Doesnt make her loss less real to have it depicted by another.
First, readers need to be cautioned that such reports issued by intelligence agencies (always eagerly released to the public) often times have very little to do withreality, and most are designed to manipulate public sentiment.Those familiar with climate science will quickly put the report on par with reports of Martians preparing to attack the planet. In simple terms: its a lot of BS.
FACT: A huge number of scientists completely disagree with Rahmstorf.
BBC: Do you agree that from January 2002 to the present there has been statistically significant global cooling? Jones: No. This period is even shorter than 1995-2009. The trend this time is negative (-0.12C per decade), but this trend is not statistically significant.
Research has shown that the focus on just carbon dioxide as the dominant human climate forcing is too narrow. We have found that natural variations are still quite important, and moreover, the human influence is significant, but the human climate influence involves a diverse range of first-order climate forcings, including, but not limited to the human input of CO2 (e.g., see NRC, 2005 and Kabat et al, 2004). These other forcings, such as land use change and from atmospheric pollution aerosols, may have a greater effect on our climate than the effects that have been claimed for CO2.
The most striking feature of Figure 11 is the great preponderance of data located in positive territory, which suggests that, on the whole, marine organisms likely will not be harmed to any significant degree by the expected decline in oceanic pH. If anything, in fact, the results suggest that the world??s marine life may actually slightly benefit from the pH decline, which latter possibility is further borne out by the scatter plot of all the experimental data pertaining to all life characteristic categories over the same pH decline range, as shown below in Figure 12.
Are you fed up with our government stealing assets, destroying good businesses and ruining families? Are you sick of inordinate red tape being used against you?
Booth et al (2012) a climate model-based studyclaimed in their abstract that a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model was used to show that aerosol emissions and periods of volcanic activity explain 76 per cent of the simulated multidecadal variance in detrended 18602005 North Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Zhang et al (2013) , on the other hand, utilized the limited data that is available to dispute those claims. Apparently a state-of-the-art Earth system climate model is still inadequate for attribution studies. Do we know what causes the multidecadal variations in North Atlantic sea surface temperatures based on computers models and on very limited data? The realistic answer is no.
especially useful for those seeking a deeper understanding of his approach to
Tesla Motors is a great company and the electric car is a great idea. However as more and more are built, we must generate much more electricity to charge their batteries. Today, setting nuclear aside due to public perception, fossil fuel electricity is the lowest cost, and most reliable.
But as the latest Heartland climate conference opens in a Chicago hotel on Monday, the thinktanks claims to reasoned debate lie in shreds and its financial future remains uncertain.
Bill Clinton and Bloomberg unveil climate risk project
Some people think its great, cant hurt if your have had an intestinal problem or recent illness or antibiotics.
Greenpeace has commissioned a study from Industrial Economics, Inc., looking at the level of federal subsidies to the oil industry. The study claims that in 1995 the federal government subsidized the oil industry to the tune of $11.9 billion per year (adding in the cost of defending the Persian Gulf oil supply raises the figure to $35.2 billion). Though it's a bit of a stretch to classify tax credits (letting people keep their own money) as subsidies, the study does identify some true subsidies that are unwarranted.
3. Some of the oil moving through the Keystone XL will likely be exported, but that's no reason to stop it. Critics of the pipeline, including Oil Change International, say that much of the oil in the line will "never reach U.S. drivers' tanks." That may be true. But U.S. oil exports are not new. American refineries are now exporting about 2.3 million barrels of refined products per day. Why? U.S. refiners are among the best in the world. They are importing lots of lower-grade crude oil and turning it into diesel and other fuels the world demands. Indeed, over the past six years, U.S. oil exports have more than doubled.
I am sure that this is an excellent paper by world class scientists. But when I look at the broader significance of the paper what I see is that there is in fact nothing that can be observed in the climate system that would be inconsistent with climate model predictions. If global cooling over the next few decades is consistent with model predictions, then so too is pretty much anything and everything under the sun.
However, while some analytical laziness is excusable in a blog post, I always planned to include more data sets as they became available.
Furthermore, technological advancements have significantly increased the amount of recoverable natural gas in the United States. The estimated 2,200 trillion cubic feet of recoverable natural gas in the U.S. is equivalent to 84 years of consumption at current rates.
So Ugandan engineers have built an electric car that costs $35,000 in a country where the per capita GDP is $1,300. US per capita GDP is about $47,000 and we still dont want EVs.
For some reason that will perhaps fascinate the palaeo-sociologists of the far future, in what is supposed to be the Age of Reason and Enlightenment anyone who wants to declare his support for the New Superstition of catastrophic manmade "global warming" can make stuff up, exaggerate beyond all reason, and menace the infidel with death for crimes against humanity, and no one bats an eyelid.
What it remains today, and instead a figure slightly wrinkled, with a smile always pulled more, even in the mythical home of the official residence 10 Downing Street (indeed, to 11, the biggest for the large family), and with a telegenic and a great ability to chat effect that do not help most. Tony Blair and became a man largely isolated, supported perhaps by many in private but very few in the audience, a character who provokes hatred indeed very fashionable especially in magazines pseudoseri as the Sun and the Daily Express, a Ba-bau for those who are to the right as to who is to the left.
The recognized antithesis of hotheads are the flatliners, who contend that there is no measurable warming caused by increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Their bible is the lack of warming in the last 16-odd years, when CO2 levels have risen the most. They do have a problem explaining the rise in temperatures in the preceding decades.
The opposition to Obama??s new carbon emission standards has been strongest in some states that have large coal-mining industries or rely heavily on coal to fuel their electricity. State officials say the new federal regulations could jeopardize the jobs of thousands of workers and drive up the monthly electric bills of residents and businesses.
This is why the ERO has recommended a series of reforms. Foremost among these is the removal of regulatory barriers to the building of new infrastructure. Power plants and transmission lines need to be built urgently; measures that facili-repealed. Without this new capacity, the power supply system will fail.
John DiPietro, a road test editor of the automotive website Edmunds.com, explained in the article that drivers hardly ever experience the actual miles per gallon advertised by the EPA. Most automobiles would have miles per gallon of approximately 75 to 87 percent of the EPA's rating. However, data from Consumer Reports suggests that the Honda Civic Hybrid and the Toyota Prius averaged well under 60 percent of the EPA's reported miles per gallon when operating on city streets.
But back to the negative curvature of the sensitivity plot. The change in air temperature is supposed to be linear with forcing. But here we see that for 50 years average air temperature has been negatively curved with forcing. Something is happening. In proper AGW climatology fashion, I could suppose that the data are wrong because models are always right.
Should we place our faith in new technologies, trusting that human ingenuity will find a way to neutralize excess carbon dioxide before global warming becomes acute?
With the Global Warming battleground heating up once again despite President Bush's stated opposition to the Kyoto Protocol, CEI's The Costs of Kyoto is as timely as ever. Click on the links below to download its various sections. To order actual copies of the book (and its companion video), follow the instructions at the bottom of the page.