Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Divide et Impera -- divide and conquer -- is perhaps the oldest strategic maxim of war, politics, and diplomacy. Businesses succumb to it time and time again. Why?
There is a very important paper, published in 2005,that demonstrates the important role of heterogeneous climate forcings on weather thousands of kilometers removed from the forcing. This paper concerns SST anomalies but the same spatial forcing due to aerosolsand land-use change would apply.
Fifth, even if real scientific investigation (which doesn't stop with modeling but tests models by empirical observation) could tell us that, say, falling 50% short of net zero "carbon" emissions would raise GAT by, say, 3 C and that that, in turn, would cause significant harms, that wouldn't tell us how we ought to respond. Empirical science tries to describe the way the world works. It doesn'tit can'ttell us what we ought, morally, to do in response.
Obama Announces New Fuel Mileage Restrictions
The following website gives photographs of a large number of official weather stations, all of which are obviously unsuitable for recording long term trends. One is even on top of a building:
The Arctic is not melting down. Arctic sea iceis currently the thickest since 2006, and thickness is about the same (2 meters) as it was 75 years ago.
In this analysis I take no account of Karl (2015), who purports to have abolished the pause, much as Mann (1998, 1999), followed by IPCC (2001), purported to abolish the inconvenient medieval warm period. The satellites show the lower troposphere has not warmed during the 15 years 2000-2014; the ARGO floats show the upper ocean has not warmed either; the terrestrial datasets, even after tampering, only show warming at 0.3-0.6 K/century equivalent over the period; Karl defies the laws of thermodynamics by positing 1.2 K/century equivalent; and, even if he were right (which, on the evidence, he is not), that warming rate is well below half of the IPCCs central prediction in 1990. Even if Karl were right, therefore, there would be little cause for concern and still less for action.
" will hurt Main Street investors and entrepreneurs, and worsen the problem of "too big to fail' bailouts. The numerous flaws of the bill add up to one basic problem: The bill's omission of reform of Fannie and Freddie, combined with the overly-broad expansion of cumbersome regulation of legitimate investor and entrepreneurs, is exactly the wrong prescription for an economy struggling to climb back from the brink."
As bad as it currently is, the problem may well grow even greater if the planet ever begins to warm again
The study also reported oil and gas operators fixed these leaks soon after they were made aware of their existence, which isn't surprising, because methane that leaks into the atmosphere cannot be captured and sold to customers. Oil and gas operators have a strong financial incentive to decrease leaks, much like dairy farmers would have a strong incentive to fix pipes that were leaking milk, the product they wish to sell, onto the ground.
As evidence that humans cause climate catastrophe, it was claimed that their lifestyle produces too much CO2. This had to be backed up by numbers. These numbers had to be prepared. They were then collated by the IPCC and ended up in the World Climate Report. The doctored results have been predicting a global climate catastrophe for many years.
"Imagine that," Bry added in his missive, "New York, Tokyo, Mumbai, Shanghai, Bangkok, Amsterdam, Miami would go first. Think about the implications. Global economic collapse, famine, border disputes, wars. Jesus, just the inland traffic."
One of the most damaging claims in 2009 was that Prof Phil Jones, the head of the UEA??s Climatic Research Institute, had deleted emails to avoid FOI requests.
I suspect that the current trend will break, as all trends do. Warming is hardly excluded by the current data. As I have said repeatedly, warming is not rejected by this data. In fact, pre-existing 30 year trends are not excluded by the current data.
After learning that most of the delegates had indeed arrived by plane, Gaia asked, "Have you been washing your clothes in a machine, or do you take them down to the river to wash by hand? Do you watch television? Use a computer? You don't refrigerate your food do you? Did you bring the food home in a car? All carbon sins! You're lucky I'm selling carbon indulgences today and I've brought free samples for all delegates."
Just what our teetering economy needs: higher energy prices. What planet do these guys come from?
Theres no sugar-coating it. Yesterdays decisionwas an across-the-board smack-down for industry and the states that sought to overturn EPAs first foray into GHG regulation following the Supreme Courts 2007 Massachusetts v. EPA decision . Not only did the Court reject every argument petitioners made, the tone of the decision suggested real hostility.
The data clearly does not support the claim of any statistically-significant decrease of pH or 'acidification'. However, it does illustrate that ocean pH routinely changes 0.5 pH units or more over the course of a single day , much larger than the claimed "acidification" of 0.1 pH units from pH 8.2 to 8.1 over the past 150 years of industrialization. There is no reliable global ocean data demonstrating any change in pH due to the increase in atmospheric CO2; this claim is largely based uponverysparse data and models. If the oceans are warming, CO2 solubility decreases per Henry's Law, thus limiting the potential of "acidification" from an increase of CO2.
Apparently in Lewandowskys view, those who demand observational data supporting claims that human emissions of greenhouse gases, particularly carbon dioxide (CO2), are causing unprecedented and dangerous global warming / climate change must be suffering from a mental deficiency. They simply cannot accept the recognized authority of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
I regret that so much of our intellectual horsepower and research funding has gone into supporting the IPCC assessments. Donnas book could provide some impetus for changing this.
In attempting to learn whether rock outcrops of southern temperate latitudes could act as local refugia for cold-adapted flora in the face of global warming, Speziale and Ezcurra (2014) compared the species compositions of 50 individual rock outcrops in northwestern Patagonia, Argentina (located between 4041' and 4157' S latitude and between 7033' and 7122' W longitude), which they also compared with species compositions of the vegetation surrounding each of the 50 rock outcrops, along with climatic data at both local and regional scales, in order to determine if the species distributions reflected differences that could indicate the existence of rock outcrop climatic refugia.
As you can see, the log transform doesn??t change the problems with e.g. the Soper or the Iceberg records. They still do not have internal consistency. As a result of the inclusion of these problematic records, all of which contain visible irregularities in the recent data, even a simple average shows an entirely spurious hockeystick.
"By itself, this change will not make the price of mortgage assets higher or lower Rather, it will allow price discovery to occur. Mark-to-market distorted the market by forcing banks to take losses on mortgage assets even if the underlying loans were still performing, based on the last fire sale price of similar assets. Respected banking analyst Richard Bove pointed out that because of mark-to-market, Bank of New York Mellon had to value its portfolio of commercial mortgage-backed securities with a 1 percent default rate as if it had a 25 percent default rate. This resulted in a $70 billion loss of liquidity to the financial system from this bank alone."
When the search for truth is confused with political advocacy, the pursuit of knowledge is reduced to the quest for power.
Build scores or hundreds of new coal plants, and the Kyoto CO2 reductions barely amount to a drop in the bucket. As has been widely reported , China is building coal power plants at the rate of one a week .
A few weeks ago, Hansen was caught massively altering the temperature record in Iceland toproducea non-existent warming trend, and disappear that pesky warm 1930s and 1940s.
The anonymous peer review process is the enemy of scientific creativitypeer reviewers go for orthodoxy.
Australias antarctic runway melting | South West Advertiser
Replications may also yield evidence of improper scientific procedures, such as "advocacy", whereby researchers seek evidence to confirm a favored hypothesis. Researchers using advocacy nearly always confirm their hypothesis.
When populations stabilize and then actually shrink, the economic dislocations can be severe. Will there be far less demand for housing and office space? Paradoxically, a very low fertility rate can also yield labor shortages, pushing wages higher. Of course, such shortages in countries with low fertility rates could be alleviated by immigration from countries with higher fertility ratesa migration from poor countries to rich ones. But Europeans are actively trying to reduce immigration, especially since 9/11. Wisely, America has mostly resisted calls for restrictions on immigrants.
Hans Feichter, a climate modeller at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg, speaks for the vast majority of his colleagues when he says "the role of a geoscientist is to understand nature, not to change it.' Climate scientists have proved themselves happy to advocate massive changes aimed at shifting the climate. But they are massive changes in technology, in geopolitics, in social norms. . . . Not changes in the workings of the stratosphere. Not changes in the natural.
One of the reasons that the Iranian-born U.S. telecommunications tycoon has decided to pay for her trip was her desire to give Iranians a new hope instead of all the depressive talk about the war and similar issues.
The United States, for example, feels there's no need to be pushy. The Obama administration, which has pledged to cut emissions by 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025, said a review of national pledges for curbing rising greenhouse gas emissions before the U.N. summit in Paris next December was "not fundamental.' And as for China, which has "promised' (albeit without any verification) to cap its soaring emissions by around 2030, it has signaled complete hostility to the idea of letting other nations challenge its policies." Other nations, including Brazil, South Africa and some developing nations, say they're on the path to resolving some differences of approach but thus far they have given scant indication they are on board with the verification process.
If, as you work, you seek more information, then please ask. No reasonable requests refused.
Angela Logomasini, CEI's Director of Risk and Environmental Policy, points out that we once "believed that bed bugs were a thing of the past having been brought under controland essentially eradicated in the U.S.due in part to the pesticide DDT." However, now that the highly effective DDT "has been banned for more than three decades bedbugs are making a resurgence absent pesticide effective enough to zap them and thanks to increased global travel." Worse, "Not only is DDT gone, but many other useful products have been regulated out of existence without weighing the risks of not having them."
I worked as a journalist in the late 1980s in Colorado, home state of Senator Tim Wirth. I had interviewed him several times on other topics. As part of my general assignment beat, I also covered science, climate and weather, regularly at NOAA, NCAR and other federal science agencies headquarted in Colorado.
Patrick Michaels, professor of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia and a senior fellow at the Cato Institute, examined the claim that global warming threatens mass extinction of species. Michaels analyzed recent scientific articles that have been claimed as evidence that rising temperatures are reducing habitats for butterflies, penguins, polar bears, and toads. In each case, he showed that either temperatures were not rising in the specific habitats or habitat for the specific species had actually expanded. Michaels concluded that research has demonstrated that species' range is affected by rising temperatures, but not in a way that helps the alarmist case.
How much climate change occurs in 5- 6000 years?
Robots collaborate to deliver meds, supplies, and even drinks MIT News "At the recent Robotics Science and Systems (RSS) conference, a CSAIL team presented a new system of three robots that can work together to deliver items quickly, accurately and, perhaps most importantly, in unpredictable environments. The team says its models could extend to a variety of other applications, including hospitals, disaster situations, and even restaurants and bars."
One last recommendationread The Dirty Dozen , by Robert Levy (CATO) and William Mellor (Institute of Justice) on how the Supreme Court has eviscerated the constitution, justices violating their oath of office to uphold the defend the constitution. The Dirty Dozen are 12 of the most important examples of judicial activism and legislation from the bench.
What he can guarantee is that people are going to be looking at this and speculating about it pretty soon. Well, of course. Weve come to expect nothing less. Meteor strike? Speculate about global warming. Earthquake? must be a global warming connection. Volcano? Obviously global warming.
Distributional Impacts in a Comprehensive Climate Policy Package
In particular, note from the above model simulation how the strong feedback mostly offsets the forcing, leaving a small radiative imbalance, consistent with the large discrepancy between Hansen's average forcing (0.8 W m-2) and the ocean heat content-inferred energy imbalance (0.2 W m-2).
(The climate models used by the IPCC show a relatively low warming rate for the surface of the Southern Ocean (90S-60S), but the data show a slight cooling. Note also that the surface data in Figure 4 are presented in absolute terms, not anomalies and that the models start about 0.7 deg C too warm, based on the trend lines.)
Agreed. I would never seek to suppress the political beliefs of individual scientists, but the ubiquity of a a particularly obdurate group-think amongst the most vocal members of the scientific establishment is hard to ignore. That AGW so adroitly alines with many of their own anti-capitalist instincts (whether victims of an age-old Marxist dialectic in science or no) has made the task of being judiciously sceptical almost impossible. Whether Beddington or King, Nurse or Jones, we are all deniers now, simply for posing the question.
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Symbiotic sea anemones ???could not only survive ocean acidification, but also thrive under future conditions????
But if you talk about the relationship to some basic procedures used in the scientific method and technology, not just in the climate science e.g. to "adjustments" I am surely a "lukewarmer", together with Steven Mosher, because the label of the full-fledged skeptics has been hijacked by anti-science nut jobs, indeed.
Mark Lynas (left), with Bob May (right) at the Oxford is My World lectures, organised by Oxford City Council, to persuade its population to cut their CO2 emissions
Climate models used by the IPCC for the 5 th Assessment Report do not properly simulate the AMO (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation). In Climate Models Fail , I presented a number of scientific studies that were very critical of how models simulated many variables, including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. (See Ruiz-Barradas, et.al. (2013) is The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation in twentieth century climate simulations: uneven progress from CMIP3 to CMIP5 .)
While its hardly mentioned in the media, the U.S. is currently in an extended and intense hurricane drought. The last Category 3 or stronger storm to make landfall was Wilma in 2005. The more than seven years since then is the longest such span in over a century.
Jeremy Rifkin, an American polemicist of the left, has just written a book that extols the "European Dream"the good life of long vacations and "sustainable development." But this is precisely wrong. Europe is living in a fool's paradise, with huge demographic imbalances, untenable health care systems, rising crime, and high unemployment. Economic growth of 1 percent or 2 percent a year can't support the welfare state politicians have promised, and Europe can't possibly afford the economic costs that an adventure like Kyoto entails and they will have to address the heavy cost-burden of "health care for all."
Great little essay via Glenn : Marohasy: Thats right. The satellite was only launched in 2002 and it enabled the collection of data, not just on temperature but also on cloud formation and water vapour. What all the climate models suggest is that, when youve got warming from additional carbon dioxide, this will result in increased water vapour, so youre going to get a positive feedback. Thats what the models have been indicating. What this great data from the NASA Aqua satellite (is) actually showing is just the opposite, that with a little bit of warming, weather processes are compensating, so theyre actually limiting the greenhouse effect and youre getting a negative rather than a positive feedback.
Due to the past passage of SEVERAL COLD fronts, temperatures have fallen below freezing and have negatively impacted crops in portions of western Guatemala.
Agreement signed at Brazzaville June 28, 2005; entered into force June 28, 2005.
I selected 18591882 and 19952011 as they seem to me to be the best periods for estimating TCR. But it is worth looking at longer periods as well, even though the signal-to-noise ratio is lower. Using 18501900 and 19852011, two periods with mean volcanic forcing levels that, although significant, are well matched, gives a TCR best estimate of 1.24C, or 1.30C based on the unadjusted AR5 aerosol forcing estimate. The TCR estimates are even lower using 18501900 to 19722011, periods that are also well-matched volcanically.
He goes on, "There is only one possible route of action. Greenhouse gases have to be radically reduced, and it has to happen worldwide." In other words, thanks to Katrina, we'll finally get Kyoto enforced. (He might start at home, by the way. Europe is not anywhere close to reducing CO2 to Kyoto standards. In fact, the U.S. is doing much better than many Kyoto ratifiers.)
By Doug Domenech, Washington Examiner, Aug 12, 2015
This approach to policy making is both morally irresponsible and logically inconsistent. Precautionists demand assurances of no harm only with respect to actions that government might regulate, never with respect to government regulation itself. But government intervention frequently boomerangs, creating the very risks precautionists deem intolerable.
The Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) is a radical anti-development activist organization that specializes in colluding with left-wing judges to abuse the Endangered Species Act. CBD's most popular tactics are to file lawsuits to prevent resource production and human activity, and to frame innocent people for supposed environmental crimes, ruining their lives and livelihoods. Despite its hard-left anti-corporate stance, explains Heartland's Ron Arnold in an extensive profile, CBD has collected large donations from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Microsoft, and even the ExxonMobil Foundation. READ MORE
A minority of scientists question whether this means global warming has peaked and argue the Earth has proved more resilient to greenhouse gases than predicted.
NASA has since erased this cooling, and made 1961 the hottest year in the 1880-1972 temperature record.
The recent global warming science facts from Canada's Baffin Island is another example of the overwhelming evidence that past global warming prior to industrial CO2 emissions was considerably higher.
Whatever one might think to be the cause of the temperature oscillations shown in Fig. 2 at the nominal 11 year solar cycle period, it should be very clear that the TSI variations over a solar cycle are completely incapable of producing them. If the sun really is responsible for producing those small temperature changes, then Svensmarks cosmic ray modulation theory would seem to be our best hope for understanding how it does it. Think of the cosmic ray modulation as a small amount of jiggling of the earths cloud thermostat. About one percent modulation of cloud albedo over a nominal 11 year solar cycle is all that is required.
The ???science is settled??, the ???debate?? is over. Actually, scientists were guessing about the source of CO2 emissions . That??s right, $64 trillion needed to fox a problem that might not exist. Now that??s a deal.
The scientific solution to the problem: No large global trend trend in aerosols and low climate sensitivity.
Al Gore claims that global warming is causing more extreme weather events, because his investments will go south if he fails to keep up the fear. Note the irony that he was speaking at a low-carbon investment conference. You really cant make this stuff up just follow the money:
So far nothing new. In section 14.3.2 I introduce the concept of planetary time scales, which I think gets to the heart of the problem that Postma has with equation 12.1.
I wont ask for a correction or apology, but please understand that
Fracking, of course, is horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing, a revolutionary technology that definitely will affect our future and our health for the better.
The very bad news is that Palmer (the coal miner) will vote to keep the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, which lends our money for dodgy green schemes, and the Renewable Energy Target, which forces us to waste money on green power and drives up power bills.
By Lawrence Solomon, Financial Post, Canada, Aug 7, 2015
In typical fashion, always predicting climate conditions decades from now, the United Nations, according to a report in The Guardian, "is warning of floods, storms and searing heat from Arizona to Zambia within four decades, as part of a series of imagined weather forecasts" to publicize the climate summit.
Antarctic Sea Ice (1979-2002)
Today, politicians and their ideological fellow travelers in the media use the normal cycles of the seasons to promote climate change. That was the conclusion of Bill Nye of MSNBC, who said, I just want to introduce the idea that this storm is connected to climate change. Gov. Andrew Cuomo made the same assertion.
"A defiant AFL-CIO president Robert J. Haynes who came under fire for his $72,000 salary as a Blue Cross Blue Shield director as well as the board's controversial $11 million payout to a former CEO told the Herald yesterday he's stepping down from his post in October the same way he came in nearly 13 years ago: fighting for workers."
1. Chart of the Day I US Beer Milestone (above). According to data released last month by the Brewers Association, there are now 4,144 breweries operating in the US as of November, which surpasses the previous historic high of 4,131 US breweries in 1873 (see chart above). Some beer facts of note for 2015 ("The Year of Beer"):
Contrary to claims by many opponents of oil production in ANWR, the coastal plain is not pristine wilderness. The Brooks Range and designated wilderness areas are far to the south. The coastal plain contains former military installations and the Inupiat village of Kaktovik. The people of Kaktovik officially support oil exploration. Polls regularly show that 70 percent of Alaskans also support it.
The IPCC also questions it, for it claims only a 90% to 95% probability of human influence. Note that is an opinion without evidence, unless one considers flawed climate models to be evidence.