Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Michael Crichton, author of Jurassic Park and other best sellers, gave a lecture on 6th November with the text now doing the rounds on the internet. Titled, Fear, Complexity and Environmental Management in the 21st Century it is a bit of a ramble covering issues as diverse as management of Yellowstone National Park and deaths at Chernobyl, click here for the entire speech with some powerpoint slides.
In light of their experimental findings, Haynert et al . conclude that foraminiferal communities are fully able to "withstand present-day, seasonally high p CO 2 levels and might also tolerate moderate future p CO 2 increases," and maybe even some that are not so "moderate."
TO VIEW THE VIDEO, go to UPDATE #2 (below): Shortly after posting this article, the 10:10 Global.org "No Pressure' Ad Campaign videos began disappearing
INCIDENT SHORTWAVE RADIATION (INCOMING SUNLIGHT) AT TOA
Solar physicist Richard Harrison says he has never seen the sun this quiet in more than 30 years of studying it.
An ECS value of 1.8 is not consistent with any catastrophic warming estimates but is consistent with skeptical arguments that warming will be mild and non-catastrophic. At the current rate of increase of atmospheric CO2 (about 2.1 ppm/yr), and an ECS of 1.8, we should expect 1.0 C of warming by 2100. By comparison, we have experienced 0.86 C warming since the start of the HADCRUT4 data set. This warming is similar to what would be expected over the next ~ 100 years and has not been catastrophic by any measure.
Ive also highlighted an area in the eastern equatorial Pacific called the NINO3.4 region. Recall our earlier very basic discussion about an El Nio and the thermometers the scientists use to tell us when an El Nio is taking place. Thats the area. Please dont think theres only one thermometer bobbing around on wine bottle cork. There are weather station-like buoys measuring atmospheric and oceanic (surface and subsurface) conditions across the entire tropical Pacific. Those NOAA Tropical Ocean-Atmosphere (TAO) Project buoys are linked to satellites, which relay the data back to climate monitoring centers. The NOAA PMEL website includes an animated slide show that provides a simple, easy-to-understand overview of the TOA project.
Record Cold And Snow Destroy Global Warming Claims
See the entire article. It trashes the idea that global warming hurt the Alaska polar bear populations in 2004 and 2006, when bear counts were one of the pieces of evidence used to have the bears listed as threatened in the U.S.
One instruction was to change a correct statement about warming rates into a flat lie: "Change "continue to rise' to "rise by even greater amounts' to provide a sense of magnitude of the extended change."
on Monday, April 19th, 2010 at 9:54 am and is filed under Uncategorized.
A new study predicts that the Northeastern United States could warm dramatically by the year 2100.
Texas, once known for its oil tycoons and cattle barons, is now a stage on which renewable-energy moguls preen and strut.But whereasdemand for Texas oil and cattlewas market-driven, the States renewable boom is a creature of politics.Robert L. Bradley, Jr., an historian of political capitalism , chronicles the lastest chapter in theLone Star Statespatronage of Big Green here .
They should reject "hyper-individualistic libertarianism," "mean-spirited words" and (in an uncharacteristically nasty analogy) "the tea party's Wahabbi-style drive to restore pure, uncompromised conservatism."
When all was said and done, however, Jutfelt and Hedg? rde report they found no effect of CO 2 treatment on any of the behaviors tested, indicating that "behavioral effects of CO 2 are not universal in teleosts" and that "the behavior of Atlantic cod could be resilient to the impacts of near-future levels of water CO 2 ." Ruminating on why this may be the case, the authors note that Atlantic cod have been observed to forage in deep waters of low pH, and, therefore, may be "physiologically adapted to be tolerant to high environmental CO 2 levels."
Last Friday, I launched a blog series on CEI's film, Policy Peril: Why Global Warming Policies Are More Dangerous Than Global Warming Itself. The film is our antidote to Al Gore's Scare-U-Mentary, An Inconvenient Truth. The blog series highlights 10 short segments of the film, one each day this week and next.
Its probably a better bet that organisms that have been around for 500 million years, on a planet that was much warmer, had much more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, got hit by an asteroid or two, experienced ice ages, and now a slight warming, will be around long after homo sapiens hit the evolutionary road.
the ACE confounds the number of hurricanes with the intensity (ACE effectively includes both). There are several ocean basins where the number of cyclones is actually decreasing, which would lead to a decrease in ACE (while at the same time showing an increase in intensity). See also #1, re problems of just looking at a 20 yr time period.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, global warming was the Left??s last, best chance to institute a world-wide redistributive regime. What happens when global warming, too, collapses?
But according to increasing numbers of serious climate scientists, it does suggest that the computer models that have for years been predicting imminent doom, such as??those used by the Met Office and the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, are flawed, and that the climate is far more complex than the models assert."
As briefly mentioned earlier, the National Research Council last year produced a report on a similar subject Hidden Costs of Energy: Unpriced Consequences of Energy Production and Use which included a more thorough examination of the literature and factors that give rise to the huge range of uncertainty in determining the three items listed above.
Danish University Fires Professor Who Criticised Wind Turbines
"Green programs in Spain destroyed 2.2 jobs for every green job created, while the capital needed for one green job in Italy could create almost five jobs in the general economy."
The government's new energy policy will lead to widespread power cuts and economic disaster, says Christopher Booker
night's energy panel from the convention stage because of the Wolverine
China is experiencing its coldest winter in 28 years, with the average national temperature remaining at 3.8 C since November 2012, which is 1.3 degrees lower than normal for this period, according to sources from the China Meteorological Administration.
By Jonathan Lesser, Continental Economics, Manhattan Institute, July 2015
The data is crucial to the famous ?hockey stick graph? used by climate change advocates to support the theory.
CO2 Regulation under the Clean Air Act: Economic Train Wreck, Constitutional Crisis, Legislative Thuggery
South Korea and Singapore employ fewer teachers than other systems; in effect, this ensures that they can spend more money on each teacher at an equivalent funding level. Both countries recognize that while class size has relatively little impact on the quality of student outcomes (see above), teacher quality does. South Korea's student-to-teacher ration is 30:1, compared to an OECD average of 17.1, enabling it in effect to double teacher salaries while maintaining the same overall funding level as other OECD countries....
Libertarians and Post-Moderns are very similar demographically. They are nearly identical in terms of college completion (37 and 41 percent, respectively), income (39 and 34 percent have incomes above $75,000), being employed (52 and 51 percent), and being a parent (32 and 34 percent). Both groups are also very likely to live in cities or suburbs, and they are among the least religious groups in the survey (only Solid Liberals are less religious than these two groups). Age is the only significant demographic difference between them: Post-Moderns are mainly under 50, while Libertarians are evenly split.
Justice Antonin Scalia's dissent commented: "It follows that everything airborne, from Frisbees to flatulence, qualifies as an "air pollutant." This reading of the statute defies common sense.'
The report then blamed the higher deaths in heatwaves on global warming (which stopped in 2001, and since when the earth has cooled):
The odds of a carbon tax being implemented in the ideal format are extremely slim. No such tax has been proposed in theUSoutside of opinion columns.
Paleoclimatologists have long suspected that the middle Holocene or a period roughly from 7,000 to 5,000 years ago, was warmer than the present day. Terms like the Alti-thermal or Hypsi-thermal or Climatic Optimum have all been used to refer to this warm period that marked the middle of the current interglacial period.
All prediction is inherently uncertain and effective communication of uncertainty information in weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological forecasts benefits users' decisions. The chaotic character of the atmosphere, coupled with inevitable inadequacies in observations and computer models, results in forecasts that always contain uncertainties. These uncertainties generally increase with forecast lead time, and vary with weather situation and location. Uncertainty is thus a fundamental characteristic of weather, seasonal climate, and hydrological prediction and no forecast is complete without a description of its uncertainty.
Another study used the model for Stormwater Management Planning in Ontario.
In Siberia today the permafrost is supposed to be gradually melting, so we are told. But if you ask local Russian scientists, this cannot be confirmed ( see video above ).
In order to distract from the Greenland cooling, alarmists made up a fake story about the Jakobshavn Glacier falling apart this summer. Satellite imagery shows that there has been almost no change since 2013.
7) Jared Olar: A Pagan Mindset Informs Global Warmingism
For a seemingly simple topic, the calculation of trends and their confidence intervals has provoked a lot of commentary (see any number of threads at Lucias). Today, Im presenting what I think is an interesting approach to the problem using maximum likelihood. In a way, the approach builds on work that I did last year implementing Brown and Sundberg profile likelihood methods for proxy calibration. The techniques are very concise and, once stated, very obvious. It seems unlikely that theres anything original in the approach, but, despite all the commentary on trends, I havent seen anything analyzing trends in quite the way that Ive done here (but Im probably re-tracing steps done elsewhere).
The Paris 2015 treaty is supposed to replace the tattered Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2020, and which the U.S. never ratified in large measure because huge greenhouse emitters like China and India were given a pass from most of its strictures.
Let some evidence we have collectednever mind howbe E = Most people enjoy Butterfingers. We are interested in answering the truth of this statement: A = Joe enjoys Butterfingers. We do not know whether A is true or false, and so we will quantify our uncertainty in A using probability, that is written like this
By Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Aug 14, 2015
But, in fact, people rarely look back to see if their old forecasts were on the mark. Foretelling the future has always been difficult and almost always wrong. Charles Mackay, in his wonderful 1841 book ?Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds,? observes that the so-called necromancers of earlier centuries who purported to divine the future were grouped with the worst alchemists. Today, however, computers seem to have undermined our natural skepticism. Many of us put our faith in complex software that most of us cannot understand.
Crane has a company to run and shareholders to protect, and his foray into politics and morals may be a smart strategy to keep them whole (and thus himself more than wholethink rent-seeking and crony capitalism ). If its really about amorphous strategy (remember John Brownes Beyond Petroleum and Ken Lays Green Enron), it helps explain why he depends on nothing more than rhetoric to support arguments that apply to a world my students and I dont live in.
The year began with extremely cold winter temperatures and snowfall amounts that broke monthly and seasonal records at many U.S. locations. Seasonal snowfall records fell in several cities, including Washington; Baltimore, Md., Philadelphia; Wilmington, Del.; and Atlantic City, N.J. Several NOAA studies established that this winter pattern was made more likely by the combined states of El Nio and the Arctic Oscillation.
Dow and anti-LNG export Congressmen are dressing their opposition in populist garb. Both say it will raise prices, hurting consumers and industry alike. Last year, both Wyden and Markey told Energy Secretary Steven Chu that increasing exports would amount to a "transfer of wealth from consumers to oil and gas companies."
In Figure 3, HADISST Global SST anomaly data from January 1935 to December 1974 are compared to CRUTEM3 Land Surface Temperature data. Again, the data have been smoothed with a 13-month filter. And again, scaled HADISST NINO3.4 SST anomalies are provided for comparison. Global land surface temperatures also appear to be responding to an El Nino event around that time. But looking at other ENSO events, global land surface temperatures do exaggerate some ENSO events but not others. And looking at the land surface temperature data for 1938/39, there was also a similar anomalous rise and fall without an El Nino event.
Indeed, coming on the heels of President Obama's termination of the space shuttle program in 2011, both events had people wondering if the end of America's decades-old dominance of space flight is really finally here.
Germany?s biggest companies, such as Siemens and Bosch, are abandoning the industry too. Their renewable energy strategies resulted in costly debacles. Siemens, Europe?s largest engineering company, announced in June that it would close its entire solar division, at a loss of about ?1bn. Last month the Siemens board fired its chief executive, Peter Loescher. His dramatic dumping was seen in the context of a catalogue of disastrous misinvestments in the green energy sector he presided over.
The UK??s Met. Office has boldly stated that a decline in the Sun??s activity will have no effect on the runaway effects of CO2. Based on their record, stout footwear and warm coat futures are up.
Gradually, however, the IPCC found it expedient to offset not just some but all of the CO2 radiative forcing with a putative negative forcing from particulate aerosols. Only by this device could it continue to maintain that its very high centennial, bicentennial, and equilibrium values for the climate-sensitivity parameter were plausible.
The above charts (click to enlarge) produced by Tisdale show both the Northern and Southern hemisphere actual sea surface temperatures (blue). The charts include the IPCC's climate model projection (red) for the last 17 years. As can be seen, the reality of sea surface temperatures and global warming is significantly different than what the IPCC's climate models predicted.
Gil-Delgado et al . say that their "finding of an increased subpopulation on Byers Peninsula" suggests that "the entire South Georgia stock may also be increasing instead of being stable as currently assumed." In addition, they note that "the occurrence of southern elephant seals breeding in recent times and in areas located at higher latitudes, such as Anvers island (ASPA 113, 2009), suggests that the breeding range of this species is expanding." And, therefore, they conclude that "habitat availability for southern elephant seals in Antarctica could increase as a result of climate change, thus providing additional suitable breeding habitats," as suggested at the turn of the century by the observations of McMahon and Campbell (2000). References
It is precisely this kind of heuristic that has given popular environmentalism its bad reputation for unqualified doomsaying. The dot.com bubble was merely the latest in a series of speculative bubbles going back centuries, such as the tulip craze and the South Sea bubble. What is important to note about these speculative crashes is that, from a long-term perspective, they amounted to mere bumps in the road in terms of longterm human and economic progress. Is the dot.com bubble really the metaphor environmentalists want to use to arrest our attention? If so, they may as well pulp and recycle the new edition of Limits to Growth tomorrow.
Overall, the extra federal revenues from a judicious expansion in domestic energy production could easily reach into the tens of billions annually, quite possibly eclipsing the $25 billion or so from the proposed 15 cent per gallon gasoline tax increase. But contrary to a tax hike, allowing additional supplies of domestic oil to come online would lower gasoline prices, as well as those for natural gas and heating oil.
As Daniel Patrick Moynihan, an artist among social scientists, pointed out, social scientists didn't really know how to eliminate poverty or crime. Policies based on middle-class instincts often worked better than those of elite liberals.
???Current datasets indicate no significant observed trends in global tropical cyclone frequency over the past century No robust trends in annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes counts have been identified over the past 100 years in the North Atlantic basin.
??? If you believe that the observed West Antarctica warming is caused by warming of the atmosphere. Recent studies show that the heat is coming from volcanoes below the glacier. Besides, air temperatures in the area are far below zero. Ice doesn??t melt in subfreezing air.
While calvings from ice shelves in parts of West Antarctica have generated headlines, evidence has emerged that temperatures are cooling in the east of the continent, which is four times the size of West Antarctica.
Most of us gathered here are not climatologists or scientists in related disciplines of natural sciences, but economists, lawyers, sociologists and perhaps also politicians or ex-politicians who have been for years or decades involved in public policy debates. This is the reason why we follow with such an interest and with an even greater concern the prevailing intellectual and political climate, its biases and misconceptions, as well as its dangerous public policy consequences.
I dont expect a lot of people will bother with the longer interviews but I am glad I took the trouble. I was wondering how fair the edited version was to Jennifer Francis where her views were given much less time than Roger Pielke Jr.
No matter what we do, we are unlikely to avoid all of the impacts of climate change. Adaptation is unavoidable.
And of course, if the scientist was unable to disprove no warming in 23 years?? well then it??s probable that warming probably either a) wasn??t happening or b) it was slower than 1.1 C/century.
Professor Kellys paper discusses the role of technology changes in helping meet the global decarbonisation agenda: success in the UK and failure elsewhere still represents failure.
Despite my longstanding policy against offering my own reconstruction under current information, CRU alleged that I had promoted, heavily promoted and advocated versions of the Yamal and Polar Urals chronologies, making these untrue claims both in their blog article itself and in Osborns inline comments. In a comment at RC, I rejected these allegations, pointing out that CRU had not provided any quotation or link supporting their assertions. Osborn was unable to provide any backup or source for his allegations.
Developing countries need try to reach their voluntary goals only if now-wealthy nations make those wealth transfers and if reducing their emissions will not interfere with their "first and overriding priorities" of eradicating poverty, malnutrition and disease, and improving living standards and life spans.
The mean is not a good central estimate for a parameter like climate sensitivity with a highly skewed distribution. The median or mode (most likely value) provide more appropriate estimates. Aldrin's main results mode for sensitivity is between 1.5 and 1.6C; the median is about halfway between the mode and the mean.
Twitter / Ed Shaz Honestly, the 'Global Warming' campaign is a discrediting disaster. How about straight forward 'stop trashing the planet!' efforts? YouTube - Cave Bob's Debut: Attack on James Hansen's Propaganda (warning-profanity)
This statement puzzled me, since it is well established in the literature that the American West experiencedsevere droughts centuries before the advent of SUVs and coal-fired power plants. So I did a quick search at www.CO2Science.Org , Web site of the Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change, where Drs. Sherwood, Keith, and Craig Idso reviewscores of peer-reviewed science studies each year. Beloware excerpts from a few of their reviews.
GHCNs adjustment up of NYC data, clearly an urban location, also calls into question the global adjustment process. These kinds of what appears to be arbitrary adjustments imply lack of data quality assurance and constitute a clear violation of the data quality act.
The goal behind these policies is not surprising. But what is surprising is that while President Obama goes around pretending to be for an "all-of-the-above" approach on energy, members of his green team administration just can't help but tell us the truth about what's really going on at EPA.
Democrats in Congress quarrel over new bankruptcy rules for homeowners.
A period of humility and even silence would be particularly welcome from the Met Office, our leading institutional advocate of the perils of man-made global warming, which had promised a ?barbecue summer? in 2009 and one of the ?warmest winters on record?. ?Dominic Lawson, The Sunday Times, 10 January 2010
Peter Glover's article pointed out, "In the 1980s Reagan talked the Saudis into significantly boosting their oil production, effectively flooding the market with cheap oil. It is not widely understood that this move, resulting in a dramatic fall in the global oil price, led directly to the collapse of the Soviet economy and, ultimately, to the downfall of the Soviet empire." With a massive program to develop fossil fuel resources in the United States, Russia's fossil fuel assets would be rendered impotent in a few years.
In the past hundred years, the instrumentalization of Islam has been a recurrent temptation on the part of every rising power, be it Wilhemine Germany or Imperial Japan, Nazi Germany or Soviet Russia, not to mention America itself. As the latest rising power, China itself would not be immune to that temptation even if it were energy self-sufficient. The fact that China's energy needs are huge guarantees that the constitution of a Sino-Islamic axis is for Beijing not just a tactical option, but a strategic necessity.12
First though, I want to clarify how I view the problem.
Another 12 minutes of filler go by images of Gore in his limo, more Earth photos, a Mark Twain quote, and Gore memories until about the 16:30 minute mark, when, according to the judge, Al Gore erroneously links receding glaciers specifically Mt. Kilimanjaro with global warming.
Leading off the witness list was Sen. James Inhofe, R-Okla., ranking member of the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works and a co-author of the legislation with House Committee Chairman Fred Upton.
A government-funded research center destroys the original data behind its predictions of global warming.
This piece originally appeared in New York Post
The short-term implications of the move are clear: getting the 60th Democrat in place before the crucial bargaining and votes occur on health reform, financial regulation and climate change. The short-term costs are also clear: Massachusetts' move smacked of rank hypocrisy, since the law being revised was slapped into place by Democrats quickly in 2004 to prevent then-Gov. Mitt Romney (R) from appointing a Republican to fill the Senate vacancy if Sen. John Kerry (D) won the presidency.