Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
But the anomaly vanished when the researchers considered a rival theory, which looks at the amount of solar energy reaching the Earth the same latitude during the summer months. Under this theory, sea levels could remain high for another two thousand years or so, even without greenhouse warming.
Now this is quite a trick, because it involves comparing apples (proxy data) to oranges (instrumental data) and pretending that the composite forms a continuous record.
I would be keen to post a piece that outlined the potential upside of global warming. Any offers?
La Nina. Roll on the next El Nino!
Phillips is alluding at the possibility that correlations between timeseries may arise just because a third factor is driving the trend in both timeseries. Is this possible in paleo-climatological applications? I think it is very well possible. For instance, a proxy indicator sensitive to rainfall, nutrients or other environmental factors may exhibit a trend that can be erroneously interpreted as an indication of temperature trend. A regression analysis between a proxy and temperature that oversees this possibility takes the risk of not properly estimating regression parameters. If the validation of the regression model is performed in periods where this trend is continued, a high, but perhaps spurious, validation skill is likely to be the answer, specially when using measures of skill that do not hedge against such risks.
Today, this "top pick" has a 76.9% "probability of bankruptcy." And, it is our tax dollars that won't be paid back.
We dont really know how clouds are formed. Water vapour impacts the climate more than any other gas.
Once corals die, they turn "white" and have a bleached appearance. But other studies have shown corals are more resilient then previously estimated. One 13-year study of coral reefs showed "them spontaneously recovering," refuting the "often doomsday forecasts about the worldwide decline of the colorful marine habitat." Tom Frazer, professor of aquatic ecology at the University of Florida and part of the research team, told Reuters, "People have said these systems don't have a chance. What we are saying is: 'Hey, this is evidence they do have a chance.'"
It announced that a fast spreading of the code has to be feared and has called on all users of Internet Explorer to use an alternative browser until the manufacturer has released a security update.
CEI Expert Available to Comment: Director of Global Warming Policy Myron Ebell on last year's climate pact with several Asian nations:
on Wednesday, March 12th, 2014 at 3:38 am and is filed under Uncategorized.
So two points here: first, humans have a poor record of understanding risk in complex systems, full of interdependencies, feedback loops, and nonlinear responses. Perhaps humility and caution and consideration are warranted. Doing nothing about climate change, I would argue, is a one-way, all-or-nothing bet with huge potential downside. Second, NNT argues, one should give more weight to witnesses and opinions when they present the opposite of a conflict of interest. They should have skin in the game. NNT had little use for the engineer once he found out that guy was an industry consultant. Likewise, perhaps one should have little use for the climate change activists who don't live as if their actions are contributing to an existential, planetary crisis.
The esteemed senators tried to hide this in an op-ed they wrote together for the San Francisco Chronicle on August 1 by saying that its cost would be "no more than 0.01 percent" of the gross national product. That sounds small, but it ignores how big the American economy is. The EIA put the annual cost of their measure at $106 billion. That is not exactly chump change.
But this is not the job of the President, at least it has not been the job undertaken by great Presidents. Great Presidents lead the country; they listen to it, then they guide it in the direction leading to the accumulation of American power, greatness, influence and admiration. They explain what is required and why. They recognize the threats of an often cold, dark world and they convince the nation that excess caution and risk aversion are the pathways to decline. President Obama is making a short term political calculation designed to ensure a fundamental domestic remaking of the country at the cost of long term power and influence in the world. The only question is whether the American people will ultimately recognize this before the consequences are irreversible.
Mike Hulme July 25, 2013 at 4:00 pm
For those who want to gawk at the observations of the Southern Hemisphere heat content versus the models. Here is Fig 3 parts b, c, and d. Note how the observation lines almost all run entirely below the models.
For example, we're told to change our wording used to describe the energy conservation law. Ms Marletto tells us about her wonderful new idea that clarifies what the conservation law is:
/s/ Thomas (Tom) Wysmuller JSC, Meteorologist, 5 years
Our planet warms and cools in predictable 200-year cycles corresponding to 200-year variations in the size and luminosity of the Sun, the scientists found. Previous global warmings ??? of which there have been many ??? have always been followed by deep cooling.
Those interested in the forecasting method can download the computer model of forest growth, JABOWA, from website www.naturestudy.org and play around with it. The software is pretty easy to use, and you can grow your own forest, log it, test it against various global warming climate regimes, etc. It isn?t as sophisticated a computer game as you can get today, but it is ecologically realistic and is used in research around the world.
Oil producers continue to lobby for the lifting of the ban, as the light crude now being produced in the U.S. is difficult for domestic refiners to process with current equipment. If Congress can increase drilling access to federal lands, even more crude will flood into refineries with limited capacity. Reports indicate exports will have little impact on pricing within the U.S.
Should we take Kofi Annans word for it that Darfur was the worlds first climate change conflict? After all, it was Kofi Annans think tank, The Global Humanitarian Forum, which produced the 2008 report, The Anatomy of a Silent Crisis , in which Anan claimed Today, millions of people are already suffering because of climate change. This suffering included 302,000 deaths per year from malaria, diarrhoea and malnutrition attributed to climate change, claimed the report, out of 7,550,000 deaths from the same diseases. As has been pointed out on this blog ad nauseum , to emphasise the putative cause of 302,000 deaths climate change ignores the lower-order consequence of 25 times as many deaths: poverty. Annans callous moral calculus almost encourages us to believe that the 7 million mostly infant deaths are natural. Yet tackling poverty rather than climate change would have the effect of solving the problem of climate change, which now looks trivial.
The alarmists have reported over and over again, the Earth is dramatically heating up. Look close at what date was picked as the baseline for comparing temperatures. It is 1850, the end of a 500 year decline in the Earths temperatures the Little Ice Age. Skeptics say that a one or two degree increase in the planets temperature is irrelevant if the basis of comparison is 500 year low temperature. To skeptics, currently we are just in another of many natural climate cycles. To alarmists, the sky is falling I mean heating all caused by mankinds pumping CO2 into the air.
According to the scientists, global temperatures will fall another 0.15C by 2015, which corresponds to the climate of the early 1980s.
moving, but was hampered by a cumbersome nomination and confirmation process
This is one of those articles that, after your read it, your eyes are bugging out of your head.
The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author.
Spain facing compensation bill of billions over renewables cuts
Anagnostopoulos, G. G., D. Koutsoyiannis, A. Christofides, A. Efstratiadis, and N. Mamassis, (2010). A comparison of local and aggregated climate model outputs with observed data, Hydrological Sciences Journal , 55: 7, 1094 1110
I don't expect these remaining emails to hold big surprises. Yet it's possible that the most important pieces are among them. Nobody on the planet has held the archive in plaintext since CG2.
These findings are contradictory to the conclusions drawn by Emanuel and Webster et al. . They do not support the argument that global TC frequency, intensity and longevity have undergone increases in recent years. Utilizing global best track data, there has been no significant increasing trend in ACE and only a small increase (~10%) in Category 45 hurricanes over the past twenty years, despite an increase in the trend of warming sea surface temperatures during this time period.
Trailer for a radio programme on BBC Radio Wales this morning.
A broker who had decades of experience in health care (rather than being a former Obama campaign worker with a few hours of training) walked me through the options and how they worked.
There are doubtless members of Obama's own cabinet who have had less face time with him than Stephen Harper.
Great. Even if a really tall human had a ladder over there, one that no one had noticed in 1963, what do you exactly want to achieve with this extra contrived assumption? There was no shot through the bodies that would be going in that direction. So what else than the complete stupidity or a form of religion that may be classified as a type of complete stupidity could be the reason that someone still believes the Badge Man Grass Knoll theory?
IPCC Reports say little, but acknowledge lack of data and understanding. ?There are very limited direct measurements of actual evapotranspiration over global land areas. Over oceans, estimates of evaporation depend on bulk flux estimates that contain large errors.? The problem is this is the major mechanism of transferal of heat energy in the global system.
Ever since I compelled the Daily Apparatchik to publish a letter from me correcting Monbiot's invincible ignorance of elementary planetary physics and undergrad math, Monbiot has seized every chance to have a go at me whenever one of his climate-extremist Comrades asserted that I'd gotten something wrong.
In an important paper published in the first volume of the new Nature Geoscience journal, Ciais et al . (2008) analyzed national forest inventory data and timber harvest statistics of the EU-15 countries excluding Luxembourg, plus Norway and Switzerland, for the period AD 1950-2000. This work revealed that over this half-century interval, the net primary productivity (NPP) of Europe's forests rose by approximately 67%, while their biomass carbon stocks rose by approximately 75%. This build-up of forest carbon stocks, in the words of the thirteen researchers, "appears to result from woody NPP exceeding losses by timber harvest and natural disturbances such as fire and wind throw," and they say their analyses suggest that 70-80% of the observed increase in NPP has likely been due to "changes in climate and to the fertilizing effect of CO 2 ," which factors, ironically, are the twin evils of the world's climate alarmists.
But in Cancun, there was a problem. Japan?s climate delegation steadfastly refused to renew its commitments, complaining that China, India, and the United States ? some of the world?s largest ?emitters? ? were not participating. ?It does not make sense to set a second commitment period,? Japanese Environment Vice-Minister Hideki Minamikawa told reporters. ? to Kyoto only represent 15 per cent of global emissions, but the countries who have signed up to the Copenhagen accord cause 80 per cent of emissions. We want a single binding treaty . We should jump ship to a more effective framework.? Canada, Russia, and some other governments were also opposed to renewal. But Third World governments on the climate dole, including the communist Chinese regime and other, smaller ones, demanded the renewal of Kyoto as a precondition for ?progress.? Climate delegations had reached an impasse ? or so it seemed.
I bring this last issue up, not to come to any conclusion about Moscow or the validity of the adjustments, but to emphasize the fragmented and complex nature of most long-term temperature records. The fact that we can take a 100-year trend of the Moscow data doesn??t mean that there is any meaning in that trend. The effects of a ring of slow-growing trees around the site, and a city behind the trees, plus a station move, make any measurements of the long-term Moscow trend speculative at best.
Rolling just about every U.N. mantra into one, the paper declares that "nothing is more crucial to preventing run-away climate change than lifting billions out of poverty, protecting our planet and fostering long-term peace and prosperity for all."
I dont know about you, but when organizations with the sort of backing that the OPT has start referring to things like reducing the number of additional carbon emitters I find it quite sinister.
And the good news reported by Pan et al. that the terrestrial carbon sink continues to expand, is also not particularly shocking. After all, we have known (and reported here at World Climate Report ) for some time that the percentage of anthropogenic CO2 emitted each year that actually stays in the atmosphere has remained pretty constant for several decades, despite ever-rising CO2 emissions from human activities. In order for that to be the case, the earths total (land + ocean) carbon sink must be expanding. And as we know that CO2 makes plants grow faster, better, stronger, more nutritious, more water use efficient, etc. , is seems only reasonable to expect that the terrestrial carbon sink in the worlds forest systems is expanding.
Finance Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) announces new efforts to repeal federal restrictions on gambling online.
4) The rate of warming is not at all unusual or unprecedented during the 20th century , during the Holocene, and during prior, warmer interglacials.
Throughout the six thousand years of recorded human government, there have been countless millions of lies told by public figures large and small. Some never get discovered and the lie passes down through history as recorded truth; others get discovered only too late, like Hitler's famous Big Lies which were very convincing until after he'd dragged all of Europe down into a Holocaust of destruction.
5.5 C wheat, barley, rye, oats, flaxseed, lettuce, asparagus
The global warming movements downward spiral accelerated in the past year after thousands of documents from climate researchers were leaked, revealing manipulation, suppression and possible fraudulent rigging of data to show the world approaching meltdown. In fact, its the global warming movement thats been melting down, as successive embarrassing disclosures revealed the so-called climate consensus to be built in part on non-peer-reviewed research and activist groups flawed assertions misrepresented as bona fide scientific studies.
The IPCC was awarded Jointly, with Mr. Al Gore, the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize and as part of this award the IPCC received an Amount of 885,000 CHF as its share of the award money.
I have read and savoured every column you have published at Unleashed, and I have read the hateful comments that, even with an ABC moderator to vet them, still make it up on the site. The worst charge is that they simply do not take me seriously, which diminishes me in my humanity. I must confess that, after the latest round of abuse, I hugged my little cat and cried for an hour.
Nicolas D. Loris, "Department of Energy Budget Cuts: Time to End the Hidden Green Stimulus," Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2668, March 23, 2012, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2012/03/department-of-energy-budget-cuts-time-to-end-the-hidden-green-stimulus.
If Congress would simply let real free markets work, instead of mandating pseudo markets, much of this crime and corruption would end. Instead, it perpetuates perverse incentives, perks, and money trains which promote what could be the Environmentalist-Industrialist-Governmentalist Complex's motto: "We don't tolerate corruption. We insist on it." Outright criminal activity is merely the tip of the iceberg.
idea of looking at the implications of climate change for what he termed
All the models assume that the climate system normalises to an equilibrium state, the state modelled. As the natural processes of the climate system are non-linear and non-ergodic, small variations may result in large changes. There are negative and positive feedback loops. There is randomness in the system. As a result, the simple deterministic computer simulations on which all climate change projections are based will have little to do with the real world.
According to NDTV, the German government has told the Great Unwashed that they should temporarily stop using Microsofts Internet Explorer following the discovery of a yet-to-be repaired bug in the web browser that the software maker said makes PCs vulnerable to attack by hackers.
Ollier, C.D. 2010. Glaciers science and nonsense. Geoscientist , 20, 1621.
To make their calculations orderly, demographers have typically worked on the assumption that the "total fertility rate"the number of children born per womanwould eventually average out to 2.1. Why 2.1? At that rate the population stabilizes over time: a couple has two children, the parents eventually die, and their children "replace" them. (The 0.1 accounts for children who die before reaching the age of reproduction.)
?Fitting of Global Temperature Change from 1850 to 2009 Using Random Walk Model,? Guangxi Sciences, Vol. 17, No. 2, May 2010, pp. 148-150.
But Medicaid is one of the primary sources of funding for the hospitals employing workers from 1199SEIU, the powerful hospital and nursing-home employees' union. The union responded to Paterson's proposal with an ad blitz extraordinary in its cost$1 million per week, for a month of television and radio spotsand viciousness. One commercial featured a blind man in a wheelchair saying, "Why are you doing this to me?" Paterson, who is blind, retreated, opting instead for tax increases and deeper cuts to other programs. The episode illustrated how far 1199SEIU will go to protect its interests. The union enjoys a reputation as New York's most formidable organized interest, largely due to its success in thwarting almost every effort to discipline Medicaid's runaway expenditures.
The False Claims Act was invoked because payments for drugs were made by the government, but in many instances those drugs were prescribed off-label (outside the indications approved by the FDA). Such off-label prescribing was encouraged by Daiichi through its sales representativesoften via the PODs. Because prescriptions for off-label uses are generally not eligible for reimbursement under applicable federal health care regulations, submission of such a claim constitutes a false claim under the Act.
A mere 200 years ago, the vast majority of humans were poor, sick and malnourished. Life expectancy in 1810 was less than 40 years, and even royal families lived under sanitation, disease, and housing standards inferior to what American welfare families enjoy today. Then a veritable revolution occurred.
Another vital component of 1199's extraordinary influence is its vaunted ground operation, including get-out-the-vote efforts that don't technically count as a campaign contribution. The union claims that 100,000 of its members in New York City are registered Democrats. That sum happens to be almost exactly the margin by which Bill de Blasio, 1199's preferred candidate, defeated his closest rival, Bill Thompson, for the Democratic nomination for mayor in 2013.
Of course, even though the headline talks of ???climate change, and even though temperatures haven??t risen in more than 17 years, the article itself still wails about global warming.
The bones of the crocodile, the hippopotamus and other tropical fauna in Pleistocene deposits beneath London show that previous interglacials have been warmer than the one we are currently experiencing. What we see is a general cooling trend from the end of the Pliocene to the present day on which is superimposed a wave pattern of steadily increasing amplitude. The interglacials are progressively cooling slightly but the glacials are cooling much more. The next glaciation will be colder than the last one.
"On Tuesday, lead counsel Carlo Piana wrote on his blog that the Court of Milan has upheld its earlier decision to order Google to filter out libellous search suggestions. These are the suggestions that pop up in Google's search input bar, proposing what the user might be wanting to search for."
But even that 31GW of Renewable Energy production is not really as useful as one would wish, because of its intermittency and non-dispatchability.
65years (60-65)Ocean cycles with +/- 0.25C
> >> >- Ed Clay and Charlie Benson at ODI
The core articles of faith of the Greens are the sanctity of ?nature?, and the depravity of mankind. Their hatred of mankind is revealed time and time again in their oft-expressed desire to see new plagues wipe out the greater part of the world?s peoples. The creation of more and more ?wilderness?, from which humans are barred, is a manifestation of this awful misanthropy, and the ultimate goal of this movement is an Earth which is no longer polluted by any human beings at all. It is an anti-theist movement with a deep hatred of its own kind, which it sees as depraved and incapable of redemption.
Figure 1. Blue line shows the anomaly in total downwelling surface radiation, longwave plus shortwave, in the CERES dataset, March 2000 to September 2012. Red line shows the trend in the downwelling radiation, which is 0.01 W/m2 per decade. Gray area shows the 95% confidence interval of the trend. Black line shows the expected effect of the increase in CO2 over the period, calculated at 21 W/m2 per doubling. CO2 data are from NOAA. Trend of the expected CO2 change in total downwelling surface radiation is 1.6 W/m2 per decade. CO2 data from NOAA .
Fourth, the Tailoring Rule and the future streamlined permitting procedures, even if upheld by courts, would do nothing to shield the U.S. economy from the compliance burdens and market impacts of a NAAQS rulemaking for CO2 and other GHGs. The next section explores this key issue.
The continent has enough natural resources to bring peace, health, and prosperity to nearly everyone. And yet 90% of Africans still lack electricity and basic necessities, while corrupt leaders who could help transform our nations embezzle billions and leave parents and children starving and poor.
Dvali also argues that any charge that leads to no long-range force must only be conserved modulo
But -18 degrees C is NOT the input! It is only the output. The input from the Sun is NOT freezing cold. Only the output of the Earth has a Wattage of 240 W/m2and an associated temperature of -18 degrees C. The solar input is actually really hot, maximizing at up to +121 degrees C: ouch hot!
Now, lets consider the absolute values of the radiative imbalance shown in Figure 13. The model mean shows an average energy imbalance of 0.79 watts/m^2 for the base period of 1996-2015, and Earths energy imbalance (based on the model mean) was about 0.10 for the first 20 years of 1861-1880 (the pre-industrial values). So, based in the model mean, Earths energy imbalance has increased roughly 0.69 watts/m^2 since pre-industrial times. But the range of the modeled energy imbalance (based on the CMIP5-archived models with historic and RCP6.0 forcings) during the base period spans about 5 watts/m^2. Thats more than 7 times greater than the 0.69 watts/m^2 modeled increase. Can we presume that the climate science community has not bothered itself to assess whether that matters, too? Maybe theyve been avoiding it.