Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Figure 1, on the other hand, shows my results regarding the same question of the climate sensitivity. These reveal nothing like a 3C temperature rise from a doubling of CO2:
The expansion took place mostly during the 1960s. Having successfully organized the vast majority of drugstores in the city by 1958, union president Leon Davis, a Russian-born drugstore clerk and onetime member of the American Communist Party, set out to organize New York's "voluntary" hospitals. Founded in the nineteenth century as nonprofit public charities with a religious orientation and dedicated initially to caring for the indigent, the voluntary hospitals eventually began seeking out government subsidies and paying customers to diversify their revenue streams.
To accomplish all this, the UN has set 17 "Sustainable Development Goals" and no fewer than 169 targets all of which are to be implemented by 2030. The grandiose scheme was adopted by the UN at its September 25-27 meeting in New York, attended by numerous heads of state, including President Obama. In keeping with previous UN declarations, the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development contains the standard boiler-plate references to the importance of eradicating "gender inequality," promoting "human rights of all," favoring "strengthened global solidarity," and the like.
Several thousandbuoysput into the sea to measure temperature havent registered any rise in sea temperatures.
The latest satellite information from the US National Snow and Ice Data Center (passed on by the Watts Up With That blog) shows that, after the third slowest melt of April Arctic ice in 30 years, the worlds polar sea ice is in fact slightly above its average extent for early May since satellite records began in 1979.
Unwanted pollen flow is an issue that farmers and seed breeders have had to address for decades. Long before the advent of the modern techniques of biotechnology, common law and agronomic customs recognized that seed breeders and organic farmers were producing specialized products and should therefore bear the responsibility to protect the genetic composition of their crops. Farmers and breeders must protect sweet corn from cross-pollination by the unpalatable field corn varieties fed to livestock, for example. And in a starker example, they must prevent canola from being cross-pollinated by rapeseed, which contains potent natural toxins. But there are a number of easily adoptable and flexible agronomic techniques, such as isolation distances and buffer zones, that growers can and do use successfully to preserve the identity of their crops.
Of greatest interest to us are Bard and Frank's conclusions about sub-orbital time scales, i.e., the first three of their four major focal points. Within this context, as they say in the concluding section of their review, "it appears that solar fluctuations were involved in causing widespread but limited climatic changes, such as the Little Ice Age (AD 1500-1800) that followed the Medieval Warm Period (AD 900-1400)." Or as they say in the concluding sentence of their abstract, "the weight of evidence suggests that solar changes have contributed to small climate oscillations occurring on time scales of a few centuries, similar in type to the fluctuations classically described for the last millennium: The so-called Medieval Warm Period (AD 900-1400) followed on by the Little Ice Age (AD 1500-1800)." What it means
Jylland Posten ends its 2-page feature story with questions and comments by Svensmark:
Assessing impacts of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 K as best estimate, 2?4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and non-zero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small but significant chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7?2.6 K 66% probability). Assuming paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future as predicted by our model, these results imply lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.
Of course, we have also had a nice chat about environmentalism and climate change. He was happy to hear that I agree that an elevated concentration of CO2 contributes to the temperature by a nonzero amount and I was happy to hear that Vclav Klaus, the Czech president, has made valuable contributions to the climate debate in the Czech Republic. And he has said many other sane things, too.
Do you remember? They said it would be mild and damp, and between one degree and one and a half degrees warmer than average. Well, I am now 46 and that means I have seen more winters than most people on this planet, and I can tell you that this one is a corker.
This tight statement implies at least one relatively unaccountable third party (other than experts and the public) is actually running the show. It also explains why the public has not often heard doubts from scientiststhey?ve been tied up and gagged in the backroom. In contrast the conventional talking point is that multitudes of powerful, well-funded skeptics relentlessly deploy a cloud of confusion to derail helpless politicians from concrete action. Garth does a fine job of skewering the consumers of this cool aid. He observes that activists within and without science view themselves romantically as a virtuous few, gallantly facing climate criminals everywhere. He writes:
Michael Manns famous hockey stick graph, the ultimate alarmist propaganda poster, has, we hope, finally been laid to rest. The stick was a central part of the IPCCs third assessment report, but was strangely dropped in the fourth. However, our own government still continues to use a version of it in order to mislead the unsuspecting public:
It seems that, rather than basing knowledge about the material universe on experimental evidence, the Royal Society and its senior members instead seek authority in science fiction; the extrapolation of superficially plausible science, forward into the future, where a drama plays out.
In light of their most interesting findings, the international team of Kenyan, Swedish, Tanzanian, and American scientists conclude that Tanzanian and possibly many other reefs that exhibit similar environmental conditions have the ability to recover from large-scale climatic and human disturbances, and they thus urge local action to deal with local problems as the best formula for protecting Earths coral reefs in the days and years to come.
> >> >- p.2, bottom paragraph: studies reporting damages due to
With increased national Doppler radar coverage , increasing population, and greater attention to tornado reporting, there has been an increase in the number of tornado reports over the past several decades. This can create a misleading appearance of an increasing trend in tornado frequency. To better understand the true variability and trend in tornado frequency in the U.S., the total number of strong to violent tornadoes (EF3 to EF5 category on the Enhanced Fujita scale) can be analyzed. These are the tornadoes that would have likely been reported even during the decades before Doppler radar use became widespread and practices resulted in increasing tornado reports. The bar chart below indicates there has been little trend in the frequency of the strongest tornadoes over the past 55 years.
Scientific paper that suggested Gulf Stream slowdown was based on a trivial error.
Free energy sounds good. Saving energy makes people feel good. But the costs of these sound-good, feel-good policies penalize those who can least afford ittrapping them in a life of government dependence. Since we do not have an energy shortage, maybe that is the goal of all of these energy-saving policies, after all.
However, the production outlook for the coming crop year is projected at 18.45 million tonnes the lowest since 2002.
The Outlook piece went viral and became the talk of political Washington even before the Sunday paper was delivered. So we were bemused that the major Sunday talk shows on the three networks and cable news whose panels focus each week on buzzy topics in politics all maintained radio silence about the essay. The denial surrounding this issue has barely changed since 2012.
Say what you will about the risks presented by Chinese imports - they still haven't managed to top this .
October 24, 2012 AUSTRALIAS $46 million Antarctic airstrip is melting, leaving the government scrambling to find a new air link to the frozen continent.
Insisting the world?s population be locked up within the confounds of mega-cities, the elite realizes that if the herd is to be properly controlled walls are needed- thick walls, and by constructing these walls, making the masses go this or that way will be made easier..
They are WIND TURBINE WARNINGS, and very real ones. The maximum tip speed on those blades is on the order of 200 miles per hour (320 Km per hour). Think about the damage that say a 20 kg (44 lb) chunk of ice moving at 200 miles an hour might do to a house or a car or a child and they build these near highways, schools and homes?
Pass on again to February this year, past the final defeat of the emissions trading bill in the Senate in July 2009, the collapse of the Copenhagen climate talks in December 2009 and the rise of Julia Gillard to the prime ministership in June 2010. On February 10, Tim Flannery was appointed Climate Commissioner presumably to provide a more friendly public face to the government's anti-global warming campaign. Unfortunately, Flannery's Gaia-esque style and his numerous failed climate prognostications undermine the credibility of the commission.
This inlgg resulted in 60 comments hr p TCS, and from unusually, I was also a semi-private mail with diverse viewpoints.
The real Clarke and Dawe on Climate Change. (Remember it was two years ago).
These groups are currently running a massive campaignin Texas to prevent the building of new coal-fired plants, without which the state will be patently unable to meet its needs. Transmission lines face even worse obstruction.
From CEI: Director of Global Warming Policy Myron Ebell and President Fred L. Smith, Jr. sign on to an open letter to the Members of the Senate opposing the global warming amendments.
Now lets look at the differences that arise from different adjustment schemes. See bottom right above. The KNMI and Labrijn already appear to contain an adjustment for the move from the pagoda hut. I presume that the online KNMI version derives in some way from the Labrijn version as these are essentially the same. Hans Erren has his own proposed adjustments shown here , which is in the same family as the other Dutch adjustments. A caveat here : my calculation of the GISS adjustment differs somewhat from Hans (well probably try to reconcile calculations at some point) although the shapes are similar; and Hans figure does not include the GHCN adjustment version.
It wasnt just the Obama administration that expressed doubts about the original Keystone XL pipeline proposal, which would transport heavy crude oil from Canadian tar sands to refineries along the Gulf of Mexico and has become a bone of contention in the presidential race. The state of Nebraska last year told TransCanada that its proposed route through that state needed adjustment, too.
Concerning forest clearing, the Sierra Club says "protection is the most obvious alternative" and goes on to say that instead of development, solutions to address "population growth and poverty" should come through so-called "family planning, basic health services, and literacy campaigns." (Lessons, p.7)
Jones further admitted in a Feb. 13, 2010, interview with the BBC that there had been no "statistically significant" warming since 1995, and evidence of cooling (although not "statistically significant" for Jones) since 2002. Here's what Jones said about the cooling:
Tracking Changes in Yellowstones Restless Volcanic System
"Our position on LNG exports has not changed," Lamb wrote in a boilerplate response that echoed the talking points at the January news conference. "The report failed to give due consideration to the importance of manufacturing to the US economy. Further we do not believe that any one report gives the whole picture and we are asking the DOE to ensure that it remains cognizant of the country's long-term growth potential when making any decisions."
Model.ols = mle2(ols.lik, start = list(b=.01),data=list(y=x,t=Year) );
In a move that would make zero a grade of the past, the Chapel
Shrinking Arctic sea ice may not be the real threat to polar bears. Veteran zoologist Susan Crockford argues that thick spring ice is a bigger problem for polar bears than sparse summer ice.
Editorial: Hansen is simply wrong and his hypothesis is a complete and abject failure
It is great how climate scientists can develop a cause and effect relationship, skipping directly past the cause part.
One of the most severe El Nio events occurred in 1789-93 and caused severe droughts in Southern India, Australia, Mexico, the Atlantic islands and southern Africa. In the Madras Presidency of India the droughts led to 600,000 deaths, about half the population. The droughts were periodically interrupted by "highly destructive rainfall." One three-day period at Madras experienced 25.5 inches of rain. As with so many of the catastrophic scenarios trotted out by global warming gloomies, the purported link between El Nio and global warming cannot withstand historical scrutiny.
Scatterplot graph of U.S. Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) -vs- NASA GISS temperature data. If there was a correlation between temperature and droughts in the USA, the dots would align along a line from upper left to lower right (or mirrored LL to UR, depending on the correlation). But, as the plot shows, there is no correlation between drought & temperature of any kind.
The figures, which have triggered debate among climate scientists, reveal that from the beginning of 1997 until August 2012, there was no discernible rise in aggregate global temperatures.
Progressives tell us that all of creation is accidental, and the result of entropy and disorder.
This cute mechanism (that I have appreciated for a couple of years, much like Frank Wilczek himself) based on logarithmic running only explains the gap between the QCD scale and the Planck scale. Of course, the gap between the electroweak scale and the Planck seems to be a very different problem - it is the hierarchy problem that is harder to solve but some mechanisms of SUSY breaking effectively propose an analogous solution.
Peter Stott, a researcher who authored the most recent IPCC report chapter on global climate projections, has found that climate model projections of an alarming temperature rise are inconsistent with past observations. When he and his colleagues at the U.K.s Met Office forced the amount of global warming predicted by the models to equal the amount of warming actually observed, the projected future rise to accompany human greenhouse gas emissions dropped substantially. In other words, the better climate models match the past, the less scary the likely future looks.
Steer has a Ph.D in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania. His appointment will be effective July 1, 2010.
The "Divergence Problem" falls into the category of a ???main area of uncertainty?? . It arises because the majority of temperature-sensitive tree ring width "site chronologies" go down in the last half of the 20th century. Cuffey asked the $64 question to D??Arrigo: if tree rings are not picking up late 20th century warmth, how can you be certain that they might not have had a similar response to a comparable warm period in the past (e.g. in the Medieval Warm Period). The NAS panel acknowledges the ???divergence problem?? (p 47, 110), but doesn??t summarize it as one of the ???major areas of uncertainty??.
The earth hasn??t warmed at the same pace during the 20 th century. The noticeable temperature increases during some periods interspersed with fairly stable or decreasing levels during others have been explained as a combination of secular global warming (likely manmade) and natural climate variability. We are currently, in the early 21 st century, experiencing a hiatus period, during which surface temperatures have not risen at the same rate as higher atmospheric radiative forcing.
Six climate headlines from 2009 that tell us something important about the run-up to the 2015 Paris climate conference
Taking the tobacco analogy one step farther, Ignatius foresees liability lawsuits winning trillions of dollars in damages against those "companies that have been working so hard to deny" that global warming may be a problem.
A Feb. 9 front-page article about the Pentagon inspector general's report regarding the office of former undersecretary of defense Douglas J. Feith incorrectly attributed quotations to that report. References to Feith's office producing "reporting of dubious quality or reliability" and that the office "was predisposed to finding a significant relationship between Iraq and al Qaeda" were from a report issued by Sen. Carl Levin (D-Mich.) in Oct. 2004. Similarly, the quotes stating that Feith's office drew on "both reliable and unreliable reporting" to produce a link between al-Qaeda and Iraq "that was much stronger than that assessed by the IC and more in accord with the policy views of senior officials in the Administration" were also from Levin's report. The article also stated that the intelligence provided by Feith's office supported the political views of senior administration officials, a conclusion that the inspector general's report did not draw .
Alexander noted that weather events show no long-term trend whatever over more than a century of reliable data. Weather extremes have occurred from time immemorial, long before industrialization boosted the CO2 level in the atmosphere.
Former NASA scientist dispels notion global warming is "settled' science
Annual mean temperature in Central England during 1999
Far from being the final word on climate change, last week?s United Nations report suggesting near certainty that human activity is causing a rise in Earth?s temperatures is actually further proof that the conventional wisdom is dead wrong and the Earth is cooling right on schedule, according to one of the leading scientists who is skeptical of the climate-change premise.
Corporations that would not benefit from new projects forecast that tax increases will compel them to lay off workers and raise prices for consumers. ?We can?t afford it,? they say. ?We?ll go out of business. Besides, why should America go first? Unless the rest of the world pulls its weight, we have no chance of succeeding.?
The New York Times noted that, "Some climate panel scientists said that other countries were planning to push for Dr. Watson to remain, and that it might be possible to craft a compromise in which the two scientists served as co-chairman."
Regulations begin easing Wednesday for Atlantic City casinos:
Illegal Immigration: Virginia Should not try to be Another Arizona
Different from crude oil, the law currently allows liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports, but the Energy Department has dozens of applications for LNG export terminals languishing on some bureaucrat's desk. Just six applications have been approved in the past year. Bipartisan support exists for expediting the permitting processespecially in light of Russia's stranglehold on natural gas supplies to many of our European allies. Legislation must be drafted and passed to allow exports to non-European free-trade countries.
While perhaps one could designate some subset of models as being poorer in a
Oops; His case is one of dozens around the U.S. to come under scrutiny because of entrenched but now-discredited beliefs about how arson can be detected. The Arson Research Project at the Monterey College of Law in California has highlighted at least 31 convictions based at least partly on debunked fire investigations, including that of a Texas man executed in 2004, and experts believe there are many more. "There was just no science behind" the old assumptions about arson, said Paul Cates of The Innocence Project, a group that works to overturn wrongful convictions, primarily through the use of DNA. "A lot of this was just guesswork and voodoo." Flashback: The FBI's Bullet Lead Analysis Used Flawed Science
These highstand oscillations recorded in the Bahamas and elsewhere require another, yet unexplained, forcing mechanism of much shorter duration than Milankovitch frequencies but also document rapid climate changes during warm interglacial periods.
Due to recent interest we have made it onto the Alexa graphical stats system too. here a comparison with Andrew Montfords excellent site at bishop-hill.net
Oil near $103 amid falling dollar, rising stocks:
By Niger Innis, Rev. Samuel Rodriguez and Amy Frederick
These devastating changes, utterly ignored by an upper middle class intellectual and cultural establishment that not so secretly hopes for a demographic change in America that will finally marginalize uncredentialed white people once and for all, make Jacksonians angry and frustrated, but they also make it harder to develop an organized political strategy in response to some of the worst and most dangerous conditions faced by any major American demographic group today. Strong in numbers (though not a majority), awakening to a new sense of anger and endangerment, Jacksonians are still groping for a movement and a program.
The U.S. needs a comprehensive energy program to bridge the country's adjustment to cleaner fuels that reduce carbon emissions. This includes green energy and nuclear energy, as well as clean coal, oil and natural gas.
I doubt that world leaders, however, will perpetually sacrifice 2 percent or more of their nations' annual economic growth, year after year, for no tangible benefits.
NEW VIDEO: Global Warming and Eco-Imperialism
/s/Charles F. Deiterich JSC, Mgr., Flight Operations Integration, MOD, 30 years
We have, for example, the case of a former editor of Science who was quite open about his belief in DAGW, and actively discouraged publication of any papers that went against his bias. Finally, he had to be shamed into giving voice to a climate skeptics contrary opinion, based on solid scientific evidence. But of course, he reserved to himself the last word in the debate.
Virtually certain . >99% probability of occurrence
Remarkably, even the IPCCs latest and much reduced near-term global-warming projections are also excessive (Fig. 3).
Policy makers recognize it is difficult to say what is a "fair" emissions target for China, which is rapidly pulling its huge population out of poverty.
So will James Murray be gleefully waving our brave young people off to war.Does he seriously think that buying a few of his Solar Panels ,Windmills and fancy Halogen Light Bulbs will automatically make it rain in the desert and make all the IEDs and the armed insurgents along with all the CO2 magically disappear.
Tuesday is Earth Day, the calendar's High Holy Day of Green theology. With each passing year, environmentalism more clearly assumes the trappings of a secular religion. Now, along comes Iain Murray to assert that the Green God is dead.
So for twelve years there has been a rise 0.1 0 C with a 140% error, in other words, no significant measureable temperature rise. You can play with the data. If you omit 1998 then you can double the change. But 1998 was an El Nino year followed in 1999 by a La Nina. If we omit both years then the results are unchanged.
By Gil Ross, ACSH, Aug 7, 2015
Global warming proven by snow? Scientists make their case
Kind of like the report card syndrome. Hospitals got very anxious about negative reports on their results and started refusing some admissions to avoid the negative outcomes that come with taking the tough cases. Some people say that such reporting just causes a shift of the difficult cases away to other institutions.