Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Water required for energy production. Source Dominguez-Faus et al. Deepak Divan and Frank Kreikebaum from Georgia Tech, writing in the November 2009 IEEE Spectrum , put the issue into perspective: organic biofuels can't possibly fuel a growing world economy in a sustainable manner. By their calculations running the world on biofuels would require crop land equivalent to 193% of Earth's surface and 173% of annual global precipitation to keep the plants wateredan obvious impossibility (see Biofuels Aren't Really Green ). Yet in both the US and the EU government mandates have been passed requiring the use of biofuels as a way of reducing CO 2 emissions and, to a lesser degree, attaining energy independence.
Weve all been looking at the Yamal (Steve Mosher named)treemometer ring width data. Yamal is a tree ring series with a huge hockey stick blade used in and likely to be highly influential in a lot of serious studies which demonstrate the unprecedentedness of recent temperatures. When Steve McIntyre replaced 12 of the hockey stick creating proxies (the dirty dozen) with equally valid schweingruber proxies the blade of the hockey stick disappears along with the unprecedentedness. Of course the boys at Real Climate made a big stink about it but notably missed any specific criticism of the methods or data chosen. However, in this post I looked at the methods of RCS standardization and the effects it has on the series.
The difference between these two regions is that the water from the Great Canadian Lakes was ready to flow to the Atlantic while the Greenland ice sheet would have to melt first. It is not quite the same thing although I understand that a brain at the Gore level simply can't be enough to comprehend such things.
Has anyone ever seen a verified threat from a real skeptic? (And was it anything more than an angry commenter mouthing off, which no publicly known skeptic encourages.)
We hear over and over that any warming at the global scale will be amplified in the Arctic region of the Northern Hemisphere, and the warming will cause ice to melt and sea level to rise and all the rest. Let some ice-free area appear during summer near the North Pole and the global media will take the bait every time and announce we are witnessing geophysical changes of Biblical proportions. Several articles have appeared recently in leading journals with interesting results regarding the temperature history of the Arctic over the past 1,000 to 1,500 years, and they show that temperatures there have risen and fallen to a significant degree many times in the past (that is, without the benefit of large changes in atmospheric CO2 levels), and they call into question whether any unusual warming (or cooling) has occurred there in recent decades.
In the concluding sentence of their revealing paper, Frommel et al . suggest that "since the Baltic Sea is naturally high in p CO 2 , its fish stocks may be adapted to conditions predicted in ocean acidification scenarios for centuries to come."
Leiserowitz points to the damage caused by "Climategate" and "Glaciergate." He is partially right; those scandals did cause damage. Unfortunately the damage was inflicted on climate scientists.
I think that there are two separable issues in the Burger and Cubasch paper which you have to pay attention to
CEI also reminds OSTP of a similar, ongoing effort by the administration to claim that records on U.S. government computers belong to the UN IPCC, refusing to produce them under FOIA. This practice was affirmed in a report by the Department of Commerce's Office of Inspector General earlier this year.
I don't want to jinx a good thing by talking about it, but good news on the climate front continues, although you wouldn't know it from reading your local newspaper or watching the news on television. In less than two months (October 6, 2016) it will be 4,000 days since the last time a major hurricane (category 3 or higher) made landfall in the United States, Wilma on October 24, 2005.
But on occasion those scientific articles have been egregiously and obviously flawed, with basic rules of research violated.
In terms of greenhouse gases it emits half what coal does, per KWh generated. Unlike oil, or even coal, the worlds gas reserves are expanding dramatically. The coming decades could be a golden age for natural gas, as the International Energy Agency explored in a recent report by this title. However, it is doubtful that Europe will share in this new gas era.
The consensus literature proposes that direct effects of CO2 result in a downward energy flux of 3.7 watts/m2 for a doubling of CO2. Lets accept that. Then they propose that this in turn results in a temperature increase of one degree. That proposal cannot be supported.
Here is what the Newcastle wind turbine looks like during the day, note the coal terminal in the background.
One of our early issues was a critique of the International Monetary Fund. At a Cato Institute conference, one critic of my talk claimed that abolishing the IMF would bring about financial Gotterdammerung. I responded that I doubted it, but that anyone who's visited the IMF's headquarters could easily envision Valhalla!
As my wife and I walked down the historic main street, we saw help-wanted signs in almost every other window. Dishwashers, servers, cooks, hostesses, cashiers, clerks, stockers, janitors, painters, carpenters, electricians, masons, bookkeepers, window washers, you name it, those jobs are going begging. One owner told me that many businesses close down on Mondays because the owners cant find enough help. Closing shop is the only way they can take a break.
Had it been otherwise, "fracking" would never have gotten off the ground. The incredible North Dakota, Texas and Pennsylvania oil, gas, jobs and revenue boom would never have occurred. Vast deposits of oil, natural gas and natural gas liquids would have remained trapped in shale rock formations, thousands of feet below Earth's surface.
Finally, the studies argue that opportunities for meeting the targets through fuel substitution (gas for coal, for instance) are few since there have already been significant advances made along these lines. All of the studies agree that Annex B countries will be unable to meet their Kyoto targets without large carbon taxes or extensive use of flexible mechanisms.
I prepared CG1 & 2 alone. Even skimming through all 220.000 emails would have taken several more months of work in an increasingly unfavorable environment.
The reasons an El Nio did not continue to form this year in response to the Kelvin wave are well established. First, the atmospheric component of ENSO, the SO part, refused to cooperate. That is, the trade winds in the western equatorial Pacific did not weaken as expected to help reinforce the El Nio development. (The other reason, of course, was the upwelling (cool) Kelvin that formed in the wake of the downwelling (warm) Kelvin wave, the latter of which had everyone so excited earlier this year. That trailing cool Kelvin wave has now helped to counteract the warm Kelvin wave.)
ACESA 2009 and the U.S. National Strategy for Dealing with Climate Change
on Saturday, July 13th, 2013 at 12:24 am and is filed under Uncategorized.
The previous six months shows a quite different pattern of local trends, but, again, the global trend is cooling.
The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index is a 24-month running sum of monthly energy levels in all hurricanes, typhoons and tropical cyclones. The Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index hit a 30-year low in October 2008.
Obviously there are no events listed since 1999, but it gives a bit of historical perspective to weather disasters in the 20thC.
Altogether, these and other similar programs achieve emissions reductions that far exceed those attributable to the NSR program. Moreover, most of these other programs are much more efficient, streamlined, and simple than NSR because they do not entail the same resource-intensive, case-by-case review that is required under NSR.15
Tehran's abandonment of the deal coming just weeks after President Obama's news conference at a g-20 summit to uncloak a secret nuclear facility in Iran made many key governments much less patient with Iranian leaders. Which is how
The IPCC central tendency is illustrated: it lies outside the uncertainty intervals which corresponds to rejecting the hypothesis that the IPCC projections are correct.
Even the United Nations will soon issue a report admitting that biofuels do more harm than good. Here are the details, according to The Telegraph:
James Hansen, Homer Simpson lookalike, is in Melbourne lucky old Melbourne spouting his usual mix of hysteria and lunacy. The Age fawns and grovels at his feet not surprising since acres of Age copy is thanks to Hansen and his ilk.A few quotes deserve mention. On the plus side, he acknowledges that nuclear power has to play a part in Australias energy mix:
It is certainly true that voters need to understand better the most important facts relevant to allegedly dangerous, human-related global warming. So let us list the five most salient facts the minister might try to communicate in his advertisements.
10 questions with British politician and "New Road to Serfdom' author Daniel Hannan:
It looks to me like the error band on precipitation makes it completely impossible to know what CO2 might or might not be doing. It can only be an article of faith. Since we have no clue, really, how precipitation changes happen over the PDO / AMO cycles to 2% of variation, how can we say if any warming or cooling is CO2 induced or precipitation dependent?
California: Lawyers to save us from reliable electricity
We could end the post on those notes, but lets examine the models in more detail to see how else they fail.
For those who cannot fly to Europe for care, death does not distinguish between rich and poor, Ugandan or foreign. The same terrible facilities and lack of medicine affect everyone. In a world with so much money, technology and knowledge, there is no reason this should continue, year after year.
Asia-Pacific: Climate change momentum fading
Over the coming days I will produce specifics of these internal emails and emails between the administration and the windmill lobby (think numerous European companies, not merely a few utilities and GE).
Conflicting statements by the two different NASA entities brings into focus several political and scientific questions. This article will address one of the scientific questions, specifically the root cause of western Pacific Ocean warming during the 2000-2015 time period. Discussions of the other questions arising from this NASA infighting such as the nature / validity of the global warming pause, NASAs ever diminishing scientific credibility, and NASAs apparent inability to communicate internally will be covered later.
Apropos for UN events, COP16 began with a lavish climate ?Fiesta? on the beach, paid for by taxpayers around the world. While preaching austerity for the rest of humanity, the self-anointed Earth saviors lived it up: gourmet food; fancy drinks; excellent service; expensive entertainment, including a live mariachi band; and, of course, carbon emissions aplenty. Americans for Prosperity got in the party and filmed the giant gala; their video, entitled ?Bureaucrats Gone Wild,? is posted online for your edification. But it wasn?t all party time; eventually the global ?civil servants? had to get down to business.
So why did Clear Skies fail? In 2005, then Senator Obama served with me on the Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works, and it was his vote that killed the bill. As Senator Obama himself admitted, "I voted against the Clear Skies bill. In fact I was the deciding vote despite the fact that I'm a coal state and that half of my state thought I'd thoroughly betrayed them because I thought clean air was critical and global warming was critical."
Indeed, if there is an Achilles heel to climate reporting, it would be its penchant for simplistic, dramatic coverage be it a new study linking climate change to shrinking animals or to declining grape quality in wine-growing regions.
Environment, education, and health all benefit from wealth creation. Perhaps the real mystery of capitalism is that neither the United Nations nor the pope recognize the benefits it can bring to four billion of the world's poor. Free enterprise and human welfare boom where governments allow new markets with access to capital and credit. That is all it takes to meet the UN's development goals.
The blaze was "a big job", said Mr Hoyland.
NASA's James Hansen said in a statement that, "to say that the tar sands have little climate impact is an absurdity." Hansen conveniently ignored the report's common sense conclusion that this oil will be put to use with or without the pipeline. If CO2 is Hansen's worry, transporting the oil less efficiently would surely emit more.
Marchants comments will be a concern to the government, after Scottish Powers decision to abandon its attempts to develop the technology last year. SSE and the oil group Shell are trying to create the countrys first CCS facility at an existing gas-fired power station at Peterhead in Aberdeenshire. Marchant told MPs more funding would be needed. My own belief on CCS is we are at the demonstration stage and what is principally needed is capital support. We do not know that this technology will work. We need to demonstrate that it will work.
???The leap from one-dimensional to three-dimensional models is an important step,?? said Wolf. ???Clouds and sea ice are critical factors in determining climate, but the one-dimensional models completely ignore them.??
Arizona's law is more humble than that. While California pushed a stricter standard than the one Washington was enforcing, Arizona seeks to enforce the federal law that Washington isn't enforcing.
The strange thing from my point of view is that its in the middle of nowhere. Zooming in:
The acid test of all this is the last 22 years of satellite measurements made of the lower layer of air of the Earth. That layer of air should be warming quite rapidly. It's where the carbon dioxide greenhouse effect should be taking place. That layer has not seen a big warming trend. It's seen ups and downs, but there's been no net trend. That layer of air has to warm first according to the (global warming) models. Then it, in turn, warms the surface. Now we've seen a little bit of warming of the surface, but it can't be caused by that carbon dioxide effect in that atmospheric layer, which has no warming. You can't bypass the lower layer of air and warm the surface by carbon dioxide effect. . . .
Conclusion : Should we expect a nice recovery this summer due to the thicker ice? You bet ya. Even if all the ice less than 2.5 metres thick melted this summer, we would still see a record high minimum in the DMI charts.
CEI is a non-profit, non-partisan public policy group dedicated to free markets and limited government. For more information call Emily McGee at (202) 331-1010.
A few weeks after the White Housedeclared the end of winter sportsdue to global warming, Colorado has record snowpack and streamflow.
Over the last million years, the earth's climate has shifted dramatically between ice ages and warmer periods like the present one, called the Holocene. The glacial periods, with major advances of ice sheets, have generally lasted about 100,000 years, while the interglacial periods have lasted about 10,000 years. The transition between glacial and interglacial conditions can take place in less than a thousand years sometimes in as little as decades. Such a dramatic climatic shift occurred near the end of the last major ice age, about 15,000 years ago. First, a brief warming occurred, then the ice age returned for roughly 1,000 years. Finally, by 11,000 years ago, the climate was quickly warming again.10
Another Kyoto area where money is flooding in with the expectation of quick profits is renewable energy technology. As UPI Business Editor Martin Hutchinson has recently written,
At the political level, the Fifty Years' War is about what defines American freedom. Is the promise of America that everyone enjoys the right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness best kept when government is minimally involved, either through regulation or taxation, in individual decision making? Or is it best kept when government removes material and immaterial obstacles to some individuals' ability to make the decisions they would prefer to make, even if removing those obstacles places obstacles in the paths of other Americans?
According to the CEI, the subpoena requests "communications, emails, statements, drafts, and other documents regarding CEI's work on climate change and energy policy, including private donor information. It demands that CEI produce these materials from 20 years ago, from 1997-2007, by April 30, 2016."
Okay, there's certainly a desire to develop your own pet theories. And once you have one, you're reluctant to let go of it.
But as there has been no warming since 1997, how can any increase in intensity since then be due to global warming?
puzzle. Their accounts of the Iranian nuclear controversy mesh especially well.
With respect to the bottom-line result of final seed yield , this parameter was determined to be 0.98 g/plant in the control treatment (ambient CO 2 , with UV-B).?? Doubling the CO 2 concentration increased yield by 25.5% to 1.23 g/plant.?? Alternatively, removing the UV-B radiation flux increased yield by 91.8% to 1.88 g/plant.?? Doing both (doubling the CO 2 concentration while simultaneously removing the UV-B flux) increased final seed yield most of all, by 175.5% to 2.7 g/plant.?? Viewed from a different perspective, doubling the air's CO 2 concentration in the presence of the UV-B radiation flux enhanced final seed yield by 25.5%, while doubling CO 2 in the absence of the UV-B radiation flux increased seed yield by 43.6%. What it means
Stein's claims that "when CO2 levels have risen, so have global temperatures" or that the world has been warming rapidly are refuted by geological history, U.S. temperature records since the end of the Little Ice Age, satellite data and the most recent warming pause. Most scientists agree that a doubling of carbon dioxide would only raise temperature about 1 degree unless there is increased climate sensitivity, which has not been demonstrated. Even the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)keeps reducing its "estimate" of sensitivity. The real issue is sensitivity; not carbon dioxide levels .
Take your pick between Nature and Calder. Is the link alleged or confirmed? Is there a non-GHG-induced magnification of solar influence on cloud formation, and therefore global lower tropospheric temperature, or not?
The lesson for climate change is obvious: Innovation is the key to moving from dirtier fuels to cleaner ones.
Republicans have pounced on last years Solyndra bankruptcy, arguing that the administration missed a series of red flags that hinted at the companys financial problems. Theyve also alleged that the administration approved the loan in 2009 to please Obamas campaign donors.
From 1896: Japan suffers giant earthquake, tsunami and typhoon before large levels of human CO2 emissions and modern global warming.
We show that although these anthropogenic forcings share a common stochastic trend, this trend is empirically independent of the stochastic trend in temperature and solar irradiance. Therefore, greenhouse gas forcing, aerosols, solar irradiance and global temperature are not polynomially cointegrated. This implies that recent global warming is not statistically significantly related to anthropogenic forcing. On the other hand, we find that greenhouse gas forcing might have had a temporary effect on global temperature.
For the leader of an ex-global power whose economy is in disarray, Vladimir Putin is having a pretty good 2016. His ships sail the South China Sea, supporting China's defiance of international law. The Japanese Prime Minister brushes Washington's protests aside to meet with him. Putin's Russia digs itself more thoroughly into Crimea each week, a Permanent Member of the Security Council in open and glaring violation of the UN Charter and its own pledged word. He's watching the European Union grow weaker and less cohesive each day. And in Syria he forced the Obama administration to grovel for a ceasefire deal that leaves him, Putin, more in control than ever, and tacitly accepts his long term presence as a major player in the Middle East. Watching the State Department pursue its Syria negotiation with Russia was surreal: as if Robert E. Lee had to chase Ulysses Grant around Northern Virginia, waving a surrender document in his hands and begging Grant to sign it.
Regarding the April 16 vote, The Financial Times reported: "Complaints from business groups that the carbon market and other climate policies are contributing to higher energy prices at a time when they are already grappling with a weak economy appeared to be decisive in Tuesday's vote." To meet its energy needs, Europe is now importing U.S. coal and North American wood.
Hillary/Obama Democrats vs. Kennedy Democrats
As the lower grade coal comes into the market, further downward pressure on prices will further drive demand, he said.
They also share many important beliefs and political attributes. They strongly believe that Americans can still advance through hard work, and they are the groups likeliest to believe that Wall Street helps America more than it hurts. While Libertarians are a bit more socially conservative than Post-Moderns, probably because they are older, Post-Moderns fit the libertarian-Republican pattern: Over three-quarters favor gay marriage, and similar numbers support legal abortion and believe illegal immigrants should have a path to citizenship. Both groups also perceive themselves as politically independent: Over 60 percent of each group describe themselves that way.
The report was also critical of Schattens acceptance of $40,000 from Hwang over 15 months, including $10,000 in cash while attending a press conference after the 2005 paper was published...
In the end I found that the important parameter was OPTIONS.regpar which had an amazing amount of control over the final trend. In the methods section the paper states:
Both the U.S. and India desire a stable and peaceful Afghanistan and fear the growth of radical Islamist groups, including the Taliban, Al Qaeda, Lashkar-e-Taiba and other such organizations. India has long stated that a stable and democratic Pakistan was in India's vital interests and that peace in the region is India's goal. India and the U.S. are also likely to take a similar view of the global security architecture.
First here is a comparison from CA in Sep 2009 here of the Briffa 2008 superstick to a version that simply incorporated Schweingrubers Khadyta River data, applying the method used by Briffa for Taimyr in Briffa et al 2008. Real Climate screeched in fury against this comparison.
However, since this topic has been discussed in blog comments, I will now take the liberty to elaborate a further on these two issues, as both are important in the context of the blog climate wars we all enjoy.
New York Times Silly Season: Killer Heat Waves!
The initiative to regulate the domestic economy and societylimited as it originally was to have beenrested with Congress. The president was to restrain the legislature when it favored party or special interests over the public good. This was no easy job. To give it institutional backbone, the Framers clothed the presidency with independent election, consistent pay, and control over the execution of the laws. Still, Hamilton could only hope that when the legislature gave in to demagogues or temporary passions, the president would "be in a situation to dare to act his own opinion with vigor and decision." Obama has inverted the presidency in domestic affairs by transforming it from a check into a facilitator of Congress.
The return to central price-setting is unavoidable for now, and evokes the UK state-owned Central Electricity Generating Board (CEGB), privatised in the 1990s.