Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Decline in the extent of Arctic sea ice may have more to do with changes in circulation patterns of fresh water entering the Arctic Ocean from rivers in Russia than changes in atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide according to a new article in Nature :
Global Warming Research, Financial Regulation and Transportation Projects
Years from now, historians will look back on this period as extraordinary. The great social fervor was over something that only seems like science. It?s of science but lacks the heart of science. It will take generations to pick through the detritus, but this period will ultimately tell us far more about ourselves than Nature. Soon it will be over. If doom has not ensued, the climate science tourists will leave for other errands. People like Garth and myself will be left to pick up after them. Perhaps then I will have an occasion to congratulate him on his book?s concise and effective exposition of relevant physics for laymen.
The snowfall and thunderstorms came just before the Memorial Day holiday weekend.
> >> climate and adaptation in SE Asia and the Caribbean (Neil Adger et al.)
Biomass burning was calculated to cause 20 year global warming of ~0.4 K because CAE I (~32% of BB warming), CAE II, semidirect effects, AHFs (~7% of BB warming), AMFs, and tar balls from biomass burning together outweighed indirect effects, contrary to previous biomass burning studies that did not treat CAEs, AHFs, AMFs, or brown carbon. AHFs from all sources and AMF + AHF from power plants and electricity use each accounted for statistically significant +0.03 K global surface air temperature warming.
Initially, rationally minded people could chalk it up to human confusion and misinformation. But after the recent fake news follies of 2016, weighed against the sheer scale of the past absurdities, only the most earnest boy scouts would not see much of it as pure disinformation instead.
It is not that conservatives are ignorant. Knowledge of science makes little difference to people's beliefs about climate change, except that it makes them more certain about what they believe. Republicans with a good knowledge of science are more sceptical about global warming than less knowledgeable Republicans.
Hansen now believes he has an answer: All the climate models, compared to the Argo data and a tracer study soon to be released by several NASA peers, exaggerate how efficiently the ocean mixes heat into its recesses . Their unanimity in this efficient mixing could be due to some shared ancestry in their code. Whatever the case, it means that climate models have been overestimating the amount of energy in the climate, seeking to match the surface warming that would occur with efficient oceans. They were solving a problem, Hansen says, that didnt exist.
The Transport Secretary, Philip Hammond, is seeking the opinion of the chief scientific adviser about whether the government should be planning for more severe winters in future. ? BBC News, 19 December 2010
A reader explains - "This is an online...christmas? holiday? disturbing? card sent, presumably to commenters on Garth Turner's blog." The copy of the email I received indicates it's "From: "Garth Turner, MP Halton" " I'm holding out hope that this is a hoax... source Update . The good citizens of Halton can be proud. It's no hoax. It appears that their elected member of parliament is actually sending this "e-card" to individuals who have commented at his blog site.
Crop production is predicted to decrease by up to 32 per cent by 2050, by which time there will be an extra 130 million mouths to feed.
Figure 1 presents the temperature deviation data, and it can be seen that solely northwestern Alaska was above normal, while all the rest of Alaska was too cold when compared to the normal. It is interesting to note that a new minimum in the sea ice extent in the Arctic Ocean was observed in September. The lack of sea ice affected Barrows temperatures, and in October the temperature deviation from the 30 year normal was a very substantial +10.3F. The greatest negative deviations were found in the Bering Sea area, which is understandable after noting that the sea ice extent for the Bering Sea recorded a new maximum in April for the time period since microwave satellite measurements became available. (Microwave instruments provide for observations of the sea ice though clouds and darkness.) This is, of course, in direct opposition to the above noted sea ice minimum observed in the Arctic Ocean.
Casual observers of the issue might recall 1978 as the approximate end of the 30-year cooling trend, or, if one prefers, the beginning of the subsequent 30 years' warming of the same, er, degree. No mention of that in the story.
Last month Landsea, a climate change scientist with the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), resigned as a participant in the producing the report. Landsea had been a chapter author and reviewer for the IPCC's second assessment report in 1995 and the third in 2001, and he is a leading expert on hurricanes and related extreme weather phenomena. He had signed on with the IPCC to update the state of current knowledge on Atlantic hurricanes for the fourth report. In an open letter, Landsea wrote that he could no longer in good conscience participate in a process that is "being motivated by pre-conceived agendas" and is "scientifically unsound."
Actual scientists in disciplines that have existed before this political movement became strong are usually neutral or skeptical about the climate panic. This includes people in the adjacent disciplines such as meteorology, geology ??? and physics itself. Physicists should be particularly immune towards this kind of brainwashing. After all, when Galileo Galilei kickstarted physics, he was fighting against similar religious attempts to "constrain" the human thought.
Brian: OK. So, err, Senator, any plans for the future?
The U.K.'s The Independent newspaper reproduced a graphic (from by the Climate Research Unit) that generally illustrated what the correction to the dataset may look like when it is finally applied.
According to an article in the Washington Post, Maryland Governor Martin OMalleys long-sought offshore wind project is positioned to win approval from the state legislature within the upcoming weeks. Environmentalists have fought hard to encourage States and developers to build off-shore wind projects on the East Coast. At least six wind farms have been proposed in the region. However, owing to the inefficient and costly nature of offshore wind farms, combined with the need for heavy subsidization, none of these projects have managed to gain any traction.
On the other hand, Italian researchers have just finished surveying bird species in a high Piedmont valley where the temperature since the early 1990s has increased about 1 degree C. How did the birds adapt? They did nothing. Sixty-eight bird species were detected in both the 1992-94 survey and the 2003-05 survey. The researchers report "the number of species whose mean elevation increased (42) was higher than the number whose mean elevation decreased (19)." But the birds move up an average of just 29 metersnot statistically different from zero.
of the private sector economy in order to avoid an environmental crisis that is
As weve seen in numerous model-data comparisons, there are few similarities between modeled and observed surface temperatures and precipitation. See here , here , here , here , and here for examples. Weve compared satellite-era sea surface temperature to model outputs in past posts (examples here , here and here ), but we used model outputs from climate models stored in the CMIP3 archive, which was prepared for the 2007 4 th Assessment Report from the IPCC. In this post, were using the outputs of newer CMIP5 models, prepared for the IPCCs upcoming 5 th Assessment Report. Scenario RCP6.0 for the CMIP5 models is presented because it most closely matches the climate forcings of the scenario called SRES A1B, which was widely cited in the past.
Last September, when the First Working Group (Physical Basis) released its fifth report, I was sort of optimistic (on TV and in a newsletter), suggesting that we may be nicely surprised by Spring 2014. The other parts of the IPCC may very well see the light before WG1 and they may conclude that there is no problem before others do.
Americans are working longer than ever to pay for the cost of government programs.
Because of TOBS, all older temperatures should be adjusted upwards, not downwards. And because of UHI, all recent temperatures should be adjusted increasingly downwards. The actual adjustments are exactly the opposite of what they should be according to the USHCN documentation.
The Environmental Protection Agency has been in a full assault on the U.S. economy since the 1980s when the global warming hoax was initiated. It has been assisted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and NASA.
How does this square with temperature records from 2005-2007, by some measurements among the warmest years on record? When added up with the other four years since 2001, Swanson said the overall trend is flat, even though temperatures should have gone up by 0.2 degrees Centigrade (0.36 degrees Fahrenheit) during that time.
Obama, With Co-Star DiCaprio, Says Climate Change Skeptics Should "Pay Penalty'
There are cheaper options, he says. Scientists with the Bangladesh Rice Research Institute in Gazipur have developed salt-tolerant rice to grow in flood-prone plains. In large coastal cities, new homes and public infrastructure could be built on artificially raised land. Near the coast, conserving and planting trees could create a buffer against storm surges.
Surface temperature trend (HadCRUT4) = 0.3 F/decade
A team led by researchers at Winrock International, a U.S. environmental nonprofit organization, has developed an estimate of gross carbon emissions from tropical deforestation for the early 2000s that is considerably lower than other recently published estimates.
Animation 2 is a similar side-by-side comparison, but on the left are maps of sea surface temperature anomalies and on the right are the H300 maps. The sea surface temperature maps trail the others by a pentad or two, which is why they do not run through July 2. My apologies for the shift in the color scaling for the range of +0.5 to +1.0 deg C in the sea surface temperature anomaly maps. That appears to be a quirk of my computer, not the GODAS website.
There is an interesting parallel with the German Kaiser Wilhelm Institute in 1941. No Hitler planned Operation Barbarossa (the attack on the Soviet Union) 's promised scientists that the coming winter would be mild. That was the message that Hitler wanted. Hitler anfll is why Soviet without frsett Wehrmacht with tillrcklig winter equipment. The next war winter proved to be colder n n on the previous s came the debacle at Stalingrad.
In the Fits test, the dummys head struck the steering wheel through the air bag and showed a high risk of leg injuries. In the vehicle-to-vehicle test, the Fit was rated poor while the Accords structure held up well.
Replacing NSR as it affects nonutility emitters with simpler Clean Air Act tools would be a superior option to NSR reform, but the administration may have feared a firestorm of criticism from Democrats and reporters had it attempted to cross that bridge. As it turns out, the administration's more modest reforms generated intense criticism nonetheless from those who seem determined to view the reform debate, naively we feel, as a contest between good (the environment) and evil (big business).
The next Administration should also recognize that state and local governments are closer to most environmental issues than Washington and can more effectively promote environmental protection and economic growth. Federal ownership and federal regulation of public lands restrict economic activity and often have created environmental problems due to mismanaged lands and lack of a proper incentive structure to maintain the properties. States, local governments, and individuals are the best arbiters of how to manage land, and the federal government should explore opportunities to privatize land. New leadership should shift the regulatory authority to the states for land use and environmental protection.
Gus Speth, author of Red Sky at Dawn, is currently dean at the Yale School of Forestry and Environmental Studies and was chairman of the President's Council on Environmental Quality under President Jimmy Carter, where he was the driving force behind The Global 2000 Report to the President. Global 2000 had the misfortune of offering specific predictions for the year 2000, such as $100-a-barrel oil, a 40-percent loss of forestland in developing nations, and a 20-percent increase in desertification. Some of these predictions were not just wrong; they were wrong by an order of magnitude. Looking beyond 2000, Global 2000 forecast that world population would approach 30 billion people by 2100a figure that even the most outlandish pessimist would not put forward today.
The key error stems from the risky practice of grandfathering existing sources of pollution while imposing high regulatory standards on new facilities and equipment. This differential enforcement creates perverse incentives that systematically increase pollution levels by postponing the orderly substitution of new (and cleaner) for old (and dirtier) plants. The Clean Air Act of 1970 (CAA) unwisely exempted existing dirty plants from the full brunt of the law, which applied with force only to new coal facilities. The regulators navely assumed that these old plants would be phased out anyway in a few years.
The idea there was that Dr. Frankenstein was doing something against nature, and that somehow the genetically engineered food crops are against nature. And as a biologist, Im just baffled by that line of argument because agriculture has been in that sense against nature for 10,000 years. That were finally able to do more precise tuning of the crops is a huge gain, not a loss.
His conclusion: "Because of the saturation effect in the energy absorption of CO2 molecules with increasing concentration and short residence time, the further increase in temperature could be therefore only at most a few tenths of a degree, if at all. However, the known fossil reserves would be exhausted by then."
Facebook upgrades user privacy controls in response to customer concerns.
Farmers are the next target for greens one sure way to ensure a lower population is a lot less food. That said, anything that ends the crooked racket of EU farm subsidies is likely to be a new benefit. US farmers arent all that impressed with new green tractors and prefer to keep the old ones running.
China's one-party autocracy has acted decisively on two issues, which can be summed up in the phrases the population explosion and global warming. The media, university and corporate elites of not just America but most of the world have been of one mind about these two issues, and in my opinion are being proven wrong on both. Each of them is used by the elites as an excuse to prevent ordinary people from behaving as they would like to.
The 1997 version disappeared from the web archive around January 1, right after I first published the results. It now comes up a blank page. Nothing suspicious about that. Certain nothing suspicious about the past repeatedly getting colder, and the present repeatedly getting warmer.
The absolute fact, we are told, is that once a piece of rainforest is gone, it is gone forever and that the intrusion of people is simply bad for this wondrous ecosystem. But once again, reality is quite a bit different from perception.
eventual political payoff for this stance is well known, the speech Obama gave
Lehr: As indicated in the film clip, carbon dioxide does absorb some of the heat radiated back into the atmosphere by the earth. Water vapor absorbs 95 percent of it, but CO2 absorbs some, but only that which is in a wave length of 15 microns, which is like 10 to the minus 17 exponent. This measurement is extremely fine. The atmosphere is already saturated with the 15 micron wavelength of heat radiated from the earth, so any additional carbon dioxide will have no 15 micron wavelength to absorb.
Guess what: These crowd-pleasing proclamations are contradictory. Anyone fearful of global warming should cheer higher gasoline prices, because much higher prices represent precisely the sort of powerful incentive needed to push consumers toward more fuel-efficient vehicles and to persuade the auto industry to produce them in large numbers. Bravo for higher prices!And Samuelson concludes, Americans want to stop global warming. They want to cut oil imports. They want cheaper energy. Who will tell them that they can't have it all? Not our"leaders."
FactCheck: Actually a more recent study (also published in Science magazine) says satellite measurements show that the ice sheet as a whole is in fact shrinking "significantly," and that most of the loss is taking place in the smaller West Antarctic ice sheet.
The second part of this classic play is the attempt to discredit your opponent. In this case, Sen. Rockefeller would have us believe that ExxonMobil, as an interested party, cannot be a participant in an honest debate.
A paper published today in Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change finds that development in poor countries will be harmed by misguided efforts at emission reductions, even if industrialized countries covered all of the costs. According to the authors, "This opinion piece argues that even if the full incremental costs of abatement in developing countries would be covered by industrialized countries, the former's development prospects could be hampered by climate change mitigation due to the following reasons. First, financial inflows have the potential to induce a climate finance curse similar to adverse effects related to natural resource exports. Second, increased use of more expensive low-carbon energy sources could delay structural change and the build-up of physical infrastructure. Third, higher energy prices could have negative effects on poverty and inequality."
In that respect, the UN's main achievement since 1949 has been the transformation of a once-peripheral issue into a global Passion Play. Though the number of refugees throughout the world were millions after 1945 (and 15 million more with the partition of India and Pakistan in 1947), the UN decided to focus quasi-exclusively on the 700,000 refugees of the 1948 Israeli-Arab war. For these Palestinian Arabs, the UN created not only a specific agency (UNRWA) but a unique, and Orwellian, definition of "refugees" carefully designed to maintain the issue forever alive.35
How do they know? Well, because that's what "settled science" based upon infallible computer models and divine authority "consensus" tells us to believe.
Future decline in glacier runoff will affect both mountain villages as small glaciers disappear and the four five hundred million inhabitants of the entire Ganga basin as spring and autumn flows in particular decline, at differing timescales. Reviews from the region suggest that the timescales are short, may be the 2040s (World Wildlife Fund 2005) or the 2050s (Xu Jianchu and others 2007), although monsoon precipitation in the Indian and Nepal Himalaya appears to stave off glacier reduction in the central and eastern Himalaya by comparison with the Karakoram in the west (Rees & Collins 2006)....
The TPA legislation, agreed to by Senate Finance Chairman Orrin Hatch, R-Utah, and ranking Democrat Ron Wyden D-Ore., plus Ryan, now chairman of House Ways and Means, would require the administration to keep Congress informed on the specifics of the negotiations. Like previous TPA bills, it would require Congress to give an up-or-down vote on final trade agreements submitted by the administration. That's necessary, because other countries aren't going to make concessions to administration negotiators if they know Congress will try to extract further concessions as the price of ratification.
EPA has also issued 588 pages of rules for hydraulic fracturing for critically needed oil and natural gas, while the Obama Administration has vetoed the Keystone XL pipeline and made 95% of all publicly owned (but government controlled) energy resources unavailable for leasing, exploration, drilling and mining.
Hence the temptation in certain quarters to reify this temporary disconnect into a Mars/Venus gap. But the most cursory examination of twentieth-century history shows that transatlantic time lags have always been the rule rather than the exception. The First World War began in 1914, the U.S. only joined in 1917. The Second World War began in 1939, the U.S. only joined in 1942. The Cold War began in 1947, and it took Europe a full two years to give up the temptation of neutrality and side with the U.S. Since the Long War is of an asymmetric kind, it is no surprise if it took longer than usual for America and Europe to synchronize their chronopolitical watches.
Greenlands surface has gained more than half a trillion tons of ice, it is still snowing, and less than eight possible weeks left to the melt season.
Social Benefits of Carbon: Craig Idso of CO2 Science has a post on the Cato web site describing the great benefits of enhanced atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2). Together with his father Sherwood and brother Keith, the Idsos have built a large repository of studies evaluating the effects of enhanced carbon dioxide, both on land and in waters (oceans). Sherwood and Craig were lead authors of the extensive report, with multiple scientific references, by the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC): Climate Change Reconsidered II: Biological Impacts (2014).
We have also shown that land use/land cover change has not been properly assessed inTom KarlsNCDC assessment ofglobal average surface temperature changes ; e.g. see
Most surface temperature measurements have been made over land, and primarily in inhabited regions. Measurements for the ocean, which covers three-quarters of the area of the globe, are sparse. Measurements from a single station are sometimes used to represent an area as large as a million square miles. Temperature records also have other biases that require correction. One important bias arises from the fact that recording sites in and near cities are subject to the urban-heat-island effect. These sites were originally in rural areas, but as more people moved in and the surrounding areas were developed, the local temperature may have increased for reasons unrelated to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases.7
Now, as Ive mentioned before, as much as 75% of this big, bad greenhouse effect is short-circuited by convective heat loss by the surface, which is almost entirely a daytime phenomenon over land (nighttime surface temperatures quickly cool the near-surface air to make it convectively stable). (And, just for completeness, a greenhouse atmosphere is colder in the upper layers than it would otherwise be.) My point is that, just because the greenhouse effect exists doesnt mean that our 1-2% enhancement of it with carbon dioxide is going to cause anything bad to happen. There are natural cooling mechanisms in place for the lower atmosphere. The stratosphere, though, probably will cool, as we have seen in satellite data.
It should be part of a rethink of the world's economy, in which green issues and social questions should be integrated into the search for profit, she said.
Congress's intent in adopting NSR in 1977 was to protect air quality by requiring major emitters of air pollutants to install state-of-the-art emission control technology when building new plants and when making major modifications to existing facilities that would result in significantly increased emissions.
Ow et al. say the results of their study demonstrated that tropical seagrasses can increase their photosynthetic rates, adjust photosynthetic performance and increase growth rates in response to CO2 enrichment??
Four crews have been at the R Plevin and Sons site in Crow Edge, near Penistone, since the wood chippings fire was discovered at about 08:10 BST on Monday.