Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
It is also possible that the institutional innovation that has been the I.P.C.C. has run its course. Yes, there will be an AR5 but for what purpose? The I.P.C.C. itself, through its structural tendency to politicize climate change science, has perhaps helped to foster a more authoritarian and exclusive form of knowledge production .
We started hiking. The drifts were deep. As we neared the top, the wind had leveled all the snow and there was no telling what was beneath. Step on a perfectly flat spot and you were hip-deep in snow, wrestling through a vat of molasses. It took us two hours to reach the sheltertwice normal. Still, we had an hour of daylight to pitch our tent and start a fire.
This is from the CEO of Climate Central. She has strong credentials in climatology and weather forecasting. Her comment is surprising and deeply concerning because she should have a better understanding of the difference between weather and climate than this comment reveals. From her bio :
By Colin Macilwain, Nature, Aug 12, 2015
on Wednesday, July 21st, 2010 at 11:20 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.
After all, Katrina was a relatively average Category-3 hurricane when it struck the New Orleans area. And even if 2005 saw a record hurricane season, neither that nor the duds of 2006 and 2007 can be used as evidence for or against Climate Change.
Summer temperatures in Arizona peaked in 1896, and recent summers have been among the coolest on record.
What's most bizarre about Grantham's letter, however, is when he advances a "plausible "conspiracy theory': that fossil energy companies, driven by the need to protect hundreds of billions of dollars of profits, encourage obfuscation of the inconvenient scientific results."
The widespread snow cover is due to cold, not the imaginary warmth inside your computer model.
So what??s really causing the endless cycles of warming and cooling, if it isn??t a constantly changing ???Greenhouse Effect?? ??? with man to blame? Man wasn??t producing much CO 2 in the past million years, so he hasn??t simply been turning the greenhouse up and down at will. Just look up ??? one of the most likely culprits is our old friend, the Sun.
Figure 3. Global temperatures (from various compilations of the surface (GISS, NCDC, CRU) and the lower atmosphere (RSS, UAH)) after the natural signals have been removed, 1979-2010 (from Foster and Rahmstorf, 2011).
Are your tax dollars helping hide global warming data from the public? Internal emails leaked as part of Climategate 2.0 indicate the answer may be Yes.
Stringy origin of diboson and dijet excesses at the LHC
NAO (solar min) AO (solar max) (Kodera 2003)
* The rate and magnitude of the reported 1979-2000 warming are not outside normal natural variability, nor are they unusual compared to earlier periods in Earth and human history. There is likewise no unambiguous evidence that humans have caused adverse changes such as melting ice, rising sea levels, rainfall or droughts, or "extreme weather" over the past 50 years.
We know that states tend to fail when they cannot feed themselves. We know that climate change increases the risk of disruption to food supplies in a region. We know that numerous societies throughout history have collapsed due to their failure to adapt to environmental change. We know that in 2007 UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon described the war in Darfur as the worlds first climate change conflict. We know there is evidence that the violence triggered by the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011 were in part fuelled by protests over soaring food prices. We know recent research has suggested climate change played a role in sparking the Syrian War that in turn has played such a big role in fuelling both the rise of ISIS and the humanitarian crisis off Europes southern coast.
Though it is rare for anyone to recommend that lawmakers hit the bottle, in the case of ethanol, the balance of virtue and vice is fairly clear. America's motto should not be "Ethanol for Energy Independence." It should be "Ethanol: Drink It, Don't Drive It."
NANNY STATE - Dentist told to bin magazines due to 'infection risk'
Mann and his lawyers doctored a quote and put their own version of it in direct quotation marks. That?s bad enough. But they did it for a specific reason. Because the original makes clear that Sir Muir?s findings apply only to the ?CRU scientists? ? that?s to say, employees of the University of East Anglia, who are the only people the Russell panel was charged with investigating, and were therefore the only people it was in a position to exonerate. So, as evidence of Michael Mann?s ?exoneration?, the best his lawyers can come up with is a fake quote from a report exonerating some people he happens to be acquainted with.
They came up with a best-case scenario that predicts a 38 per cent reduction in land capable of yielding Arabica by 2080. The worst-case scenario puts the loss at between 90 per cent and 100 per cent.
They want the news media to ignore us but cannot put the internet genie back in the bottle. The White House is trying, though. It even sent picketers to FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler's home, to demand that he knuckle under and apply 1930s' telephone laws to the internet, as a first step in content control
It means that there should be no disjunction, no blemish in concept or communication and nothing obscured when it comes to public decisions and action.
3 Left unmentioned is the basis for the ranking of meansimpossible in the absence of moral absolutes.
Over the past few years, conventional washing machines have become politically incorrect. Federal bureaucrats and government-funded environmental activists have spent millions of tax dollars critiquing them. They determined that the popular top-loading design uses too much water and, more importantly, too much energy to heat that water. Energy use, particularly fossil fuels burned by utilities to provide residential electricity, results in emissions of carbon dioxide, a greenhouse gas. Thus, the Department of Energy (DOE) believes that, among other environmental evils, these energy-guzzling washers contribute to raising the global temperature via the greenhouse effect.
Their laughable answer: 95% of climate models agree; therefore the observations must be wrong! One can only shake ones head sadly at such a display of science.
Therefore, webeing McGoo and Ihave totaled the nominating votes and declare Real Climate a Best Religious Blog Weblog Award Finalist for 2009.
Policies that operate from the four pillars of economic freedomrule of law, limited government, regulatory efficiency, and open marketswill do more than stimulate economic growth and innovation. They will expand access to energy and improve the environment. The United States has shown what can happen with open access to resources, private property rights, and opportunities for domestic and foreign investment. Within the broad scope of economic freedom, the next Administration should pursue three fundamental objectives in energy policy: establishing open markets, eliminating favoritism, and reducing the regulatory burden.
The study found that a threefold increase in the number of nuclear reactors worldwide (including increasing the number of American reactors from 100 to 300) could reduce incremental carbon emissions by up to 25 percent. The report recommended granting a limited production tax-credit to 'first movers' (private sector investors who successfully build new nuclear plants). The credit would be extendable to other carbon-free electricity technologies but would not be paid unless the plant was in operation.
This one does 2 minutes on a single person. High res and slow advance; there are a lot of detail matches, even things like neck and eye wrinkles and tooth shape / positions (made harder by different exposure of tooth length with different smile depths).
PS Do you want to get involved in IPCC this time? Im the CLA of the atmospheric obs.
Climate models, unfortunately, are still unable to provide skillful predictions of changes in regional climate statistics on multi-decadal time scales at the detail desired by the impacts communities. Even on the global scale, the annual, global-averaged radiative forcing predicted by the models is significantly greater than has been observed based on the accumulation of Joules in the climate system. The summer arctic sea ice extent, in contrast, has been significantly under predicted by the models, while the summer Antarctic sea ice extent increase has been missed by the models. Also attribution of specific extreme weather events to multi-decadal changes in climate has not yet been shown, and is likely not even possible.
I??ve plotted the actual differences between the two series below (for whatever that??s worth) together with a 50-year smooth. I wouldn??t characterize this plot as showing a discrepancy arising in the 19th century and then leveling off in the 20th century. On the right, I??ve limited the plot to the period of the actual Jacoby-D??Arrigo chronology 1601-1980, to minimize the rhetorical effect of the 15th century where there are only 1-2 trees involved. In this case, one would surely characterize the plots not as showing remarkable similarity prior to 1800, but as the bristlecone PC1 gaining relative to the Jacoby reconstruction, with the relative gain reversed only during the HS-pulse of the Jacoby series in the early 20th century.
The absence of both tropospheric warming and stratospheric cooling since 1996 is remarkable consideringthat more than 31% of all industrial CO2 emissions since 1750 occurred during the past 18 years.
Life in a Cold and Dark Place: Can It Long Be Maintained in a Warming World? (9 Jul 2013)
With such discrepancies as these existing among real-world reconstructions of the effects of mean global temperature on the ratio of El Ni?os to La Ni?as, it would appear that we don't even have the means for determining which of the similarly-divergent scenarios of current state-of-the-art climate model simulations is correct, or how close or how far from reality they each may be, which surely does not make for a solid foundation for divining what a future warmer world might be like with respect to "the leading mode of interannual climate variability in the global climate system," which sure sounds like something one would want to get right. References
I happened by chance into a conversation with a program officer for one of the major liberal foundations in New York a few months ago, and asked, "So what do you think of Shellenberger and Nordhaus?" He responded: "They're a couple of a*******!" Pause. "But they're very smart."
"We have a program in this country of federal fuel economy standards for new cars. It's nickname is CAFE, and one consequence of CAFE has been to downsize the fleet of passenger cars, because one of the easiest ways to make a vehicle more fuel-efficient is to make it smaller and lighter, which gives you perhaps better miles per gallon, but also means you have a smaller, less crash-worthy vehicle."
Solar influence on climate on shaky ground if we dont even know solar input
If the GFZ research is correct, a new solar minimum could have a direct impact on Earths climate cooling our planet drastically, and knocking the predictions of global-warming alarmists out of whack.
Now this is interesting. As readers here know, there are almost no temperature stations in the Arctic and the gaps are therefore infilled by extrapolation.
Chapter 1, by Nicholas EberstadtPopulation, Food, and Income: Global Trends in the Twentieth Century
RECOMMENDED CORRECTION: These previous national U.S. assessments, as well as those for normalised Cuban hurricane losses (Pielke et al., 2003), did not show any significant upward trend in losses over time, and this remains the case following the remarkable hurricane losses of 2004 and 2005.
In his hit-and-run speech, delivered hours before leaving the country, President Obama issued a directive for the EPA, instructing them to begin drafting new rules governing emissions from power plants. Current EPA regulations are already closing coal-fueled power plants at an alarming ratewhich New Mexico Public Regulations Commissioner Pat Lyons calls "the real energy crisis that no one is talking about."
To gather samples from the Giant Forest trees, the researchers were allowed to collect cross-sections of downed logs and standing dead trees, he said. It turned out to be a gargantuan undertaking that required many people and many field seasons.
"At the very least, if the Bush Administration plan is truly voluntary, it's unnecessary. Loan holders and servicers have plenty of incentive to do that themselves. No one sitting in a central office can hope to set the right mortgage terms for millions of borrowers, lenders, and investors."
The rise of 1199 from a small union of pharmacists and drugstore clerks to the political force that it is today should be seen as part of the decades-long shift in organized labor's power base from private industry to government. In 1932, when 1199 was founded, the dominant labor unions represented workers in manufacturing and the skilled trades. As labor historian Joshua Freeman has noted, "1199's expansion into hospitals and nursing homes was, with the exception of the unionization of public employees, New York labor's most important organizing success of the postWorld War II era."
CFACT is a UNFCCC accredited NGO and the veteran of numerous UN conferences. CFACT is your "go to' source for news and information for those seeking to balance coverage with reporting which challenges climate and sustainability orthodoxy. CFACT is available to all media. Call to schedule an interview.
Coming Next Week: Property Rights in 21st-Century America
79) Since the cause of global warming is mostly natural, then there is in actual fact very little we can do about it. (We are still not able to control the sun).
I've long drawn that same line, about where legitimate climate "science" stops, and climate panic-mongering begins, and it's at that point where you start predicting the future.
he Climategate Emails describe how a small band of climatologists cooked the books to make the last century seem dangerously warm.
2) His apocalyptic predictions are all based on climate models, which have consistently failed to match up with real world observations.
Entine believes opinion leaders across the developed world have finally accepted the technology. I've visited with other astute observers of agriculture and technology who make the same observation. According to them, what we are seeing is nothing more than the kind of ruckus that surrounds any new technology, and we are well on our way as a society to accepting modern plant breeding.
Vocal actors within policy and practice contend that environmental variability and shocks, such as drought and prolonged heat waves, drive civil wars in Africa. Recently, a widely publicized scientific article appears to substantiate this claim. This paper investigates the empirical foundation for the claimed relationship in detail. Using a host of different model specifications and alternative measures of drought, heat, and civil war, the paper concludes that climate variability is a poor predictor of armed conflict. Instead, African civil wars can be explained by generic structural and contextual conditions: prevalent ethno-political exclusion, poor national economy, and the collapse of the Cold War system.
What does that mean? Well, they (Paltridge, Arking and Pook) pulled out old weather balloon observations and had another look at them. They discovered that over 35 years, instead of rising, the humidity in the high atmosphere has been falling. We should not underestimate the significance of this discovery because, if true, it destroys the possibility of catastrophic man-made global warming. Really, its that important!
A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research illustrates the ' travesty 'of relying on climate computer model projections, finding 19 different models had 'no model consensus' and a 'large spread' ' with both large positive and negative anomalies' in projections of future Australian tropical climate. Furthermore, the authors conclude that since model projections are all over the map, that indicates there is "large internal or natural variability in tropical Australian precipitation relative to the climate change signal" .
Climate Audit On Rahmstorf/Mann: "Dreck" "Reputable Science Community Should Cringe With Embarrassment"!
What a different nation America could be were it not for Obama's deliberate attack on the coal industry in particular and other fossil fuels, oil and natural gas. In the name of reducing emissions, Obama deliberately ignores the increasing use of coal in Europe and nations that include China, Japan, and India.
The lesson I take from the overpopulation scare is to be wary when media, university and corporate elites warn that we must change our ways or face disaster 50 years hence, and when they insist, as Al Gore does and Friedman seems to, that the time for argument is over. In our two-party democracy it never is. And shouldn't be.
Dr. Michael Coffman explains that island biogeography was first postulated in 1967 and " is a set of theories of how population and genetic dynamics are affected when stressed on isolated islands in the South Pacific .It postulates that, like isolated islands separated by oceans, forested ecosystems that are separated or "fragmented" by "oceans" of cut-over land, housing tracts, parking lots, and roads are therefore isolated from each other." To prevent this, corridors and reserves must be created to allow genetic material for the varied species to flow in and out of the natural habitats stabilizing the species populations." (Coffman, "Biological Diversity," p.2-3)
This is not merely shatteringly unfair. It is unconstitutional. Yet that is what the Australian Government, conspiring with the administration in New South Wales, has done to Peter Spencer, a farmer who was told his land could no longer be worked because it was a "carbon sink", and who is now on hunger-strike halfway up a mobile-phone mast on his land.
Media Claim Cold and Snow Prove Global Warming
19 And art confident that thou thyself art a guide of the blind, a light of them which are in darkness,
It is of course huge crap that such errors go through the entire IPCC. I thought they all worked to check everything a thousand times. Personally I was always skeptical about this melt warning. Ice at 7000 or 8000 meters elevation, why would it melt? Its way too cold. At most it could sublimate if it stopped snowing. But the India monsoons bring new snow every summer. I just dont understand it.
13) If Not Humans, What could Have Caused Recent Warming? This is one of my areas of research. I believe that natural changes in the amount of sunlight being absorbed by the Earth ? due to natural changes in cloud cover ? are responsible for most of the warming. Whether that is the specific mechanism or not, I advance the minority view that the climate system can change all by itself. Climate change does not require an ?external? source of forcing, such as a change in the sun.
David Suzuki: "It's time that climate-change deniers were exposed'
Two of catastrophic climate change's staunchest supporters have been out on the stump promoting their causewith conflicting statements.
CEI: Like 90 percent marginal rates?
Opponents accuse Mr. Obama of attempting to bypass the Senate's constitutional role in treaty making. Responding to such criticism, presidential climate advisor Brian Deese claims Presidents Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush "joined important international environmental agreements by using executive agreements," the Washington Times reports.
And you know why? Because they say its too expensive. NoIm not making this up! Pressure groups led by the Sierra Club have filed a barrage of lawsuits to revoke approval of a $4.3 billion clean coal power plant in Kemper County, Mississippi that will demonstrate commercial CO 2 removal technology to help save the planet from dreaded climate change because according to Mississippi Sierra Club President Louie Miller: We cant allow struggling families to be charged for a $4 billion plant that doesnt operate as promised.
It quickly refroze in a few days even before the flurry of news stories hyping it stopped.
Global Warming's "hockey-stick" graph, believed to be one of the leading indicators of global warming, is now being called "rubbish." Scientists have shown that the graph's underlying equation would generate the same result for any series of random numbers.
On January 22, the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee released the deposition transcript of former senior EPA official John Beale. After defrauding the agency of nearly $900,000 and spending weeks and months away from his office by claiming he was on assignment for the CIA, the transcript contained a bombshell.
On the contrary, famous people like politicians are probably much more likely to be shot simply because many more people know them and either hate them or consider them to be symbols of something they hate. The Earth is a large place and it's often difficult even for the best agent to perfectly protect such a politician. You don't need a very contrived theory to explain such data.
For those models with multiple runs, the ensemble members are averaged before being presented in this post and before being included in the multi-model mean.
The Paris conference gathered several hundred representatives from national and local government, thinktanks and civil society with the declared aim of gingering up a programme, called "draft zero," that is being hammered out for Rio.
EPAs recent experiments that unethically expose human subjects to substances that the EPA has declared to be lethal, in a search for evidence of harm, is basically an admission that corrupted, unreliable epidemiology is being misused as a false portfolio of evidence of air pollution toxicity, he writes.
At some point, U.S. continental warming will resume, but the extended decade-long plus global coolingtrend persists, contradicting the experts. None of the IPCC climate models, nor "consensus" experts predicted this cooling, let alone a minus 9.4 degree trend for the continental U.S. This trend has persisted since the super 1997-98 El Nio warming event and continued through the major 2009-2010 El Nio event.
But there are some notable exceptions. The BBC chose an interesting title, Dissent among scientists over key climate impact report . But The Sydney Morning Herald has the most upbeat article.
Steve McIntyre picks up my critique on the electrical grid disruption chart ( here and here ) and takes it further. Apparently, this report (which I guess I should be calling the Climate Change Synthesis Report or CCSP) set rules for itself that all the work in the report had to be from peer-reviewed literature. McIntyre makes a grab at the footnotes for this section of the report for any peer-reviewed basis, but comes up only with air. He also references a hurricane chart in the report apparently compiled by the same person who compiled the grid outage report. Roger Pielke rips up this hurricane report, and I have it on my list to address in a future post as well.
. much of the temperature variability during 20002010 was due to ENSO , we conclude that ENSO-relatedtemperature variations are partly radiatively forced. We hypothesize that changes in the coupled ocean-atmosphere circulation during the El Nio and La Nia phases of ENSO cause differing changes in cloud cover, which then modulate the radiative balance of the climate system. As seen in Figure 3(b) for the ocean-only data, the signature of radiative forcing is stronger over the oceans than in the global average, suggesting a primarily oceanic origin .
remaining 26 miles and 285 yards. Conversely, a runner could set the world