Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Most skeptics arrived at their doubts in the carbon dioxide theory of global warming by noting the discrepancies between that theory and empirical evidence. They are empiricists. Consequently, many skeptics are unaware of the basic model, or its power, because it has been irrelevant to them.
At this point it is tempting to write: Its hard to imagine a case where politics trumped science more decisively than in the case of Yucca Mountain, where 20 years of research were traded for five electoral votes and the support of a powerful senator, which seems basically correct, but taken out of context it could be viewed as a criticism of President Obama, which it is not. But the point I want to make is only slightly more subtle: Faced with a complex amalgam of scientific and political factors, President Obama chose short-term political gain over longer-term scientific assessment, and so decided to put an end to research aimed at characterizing the Yucca Mountain site. This decision can easily be portrayed in the same type of language that was used to attack President Bushs politicization of science.
I am hoping that among my faithful readers there is somebody that knows somebody who might know a guy whos looking for a statistician.
A paper published today in the Journal of Geophysical Research finds that a natural atmospheric oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode , is correlated to significant increases in cloud cover resulting in "large scale" local cooling of approximately -2.5C. All climate models falsely assume clouds result in net positive feedback and increased temperatures, however this new paper and several others show clouds instead result in net negative feedback and cooling.
To keep this in perspective, this inhomogeneity incurred by this move of a few hundred meters is substantially more than the entire amount of global warming experienced to date. So when people are thinking in terms of signal and noise, heres an example of the type of noise that is introduced by a seemingly innocuous station move. So a move from the roof top of the Boulder fire station to the NIST building may well introduce a discontinuity as well. If all your stations have discontinuities, the estimation process would appear to become very formidable very quickly. There is some recent literature on these sort of adjustments, but the entire topic bears examination by third-party statisticians of Wegman calibre.
President Obama released a sweeping climate plan (Plan) on June 25, 2013, using his authority to both address greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to prepare for the impacts of climate change. The plan, which consists of a wide variety of executive actions, has three key pillars: (1) cut carbon pollution in America; (2) prepare the United States for the impacts of climate change; and (3) lead international efforts to combat global climate change. While the Plan contains proposals to promote such measures as energy efficiency and advanced transportation technologies, much of the focus of the Plan is on the electric generation sector.
So a "trick" is just scientific shorthand for a "good way to deal with a problem," not something "secret." But RC ducks the real issue. Is the "trick" Phil Jones learned from Hockey Stick author Michael Mann a form of trickery? Does it create a false impression, as an illusionist does on stage, right out in the open, in front of an audience?
We cant let the climate wars continue to derail efforts to have an energy policy that puts in place rising efficiency standards, for buildings, windows, traffic, housing, packaging and appliances, that will drive innovation which is our strength in what has to be the next great global industry: energy and resource efficiency.
Ive posted before about the growing food crisis, and its potential effect on the worlds poor.
Global Warming Linked to Anger Outbursts, Obscenities
Furthermore, although the Obama Administration was not the first to implement federal fuel efficiency standards, the President's EPA and Department of Transportation required the first-ever greenhouse gas emissions standards for vehicles. The Obama Administration recently finalized new fuel-efficiency rules for cars and light trucks for model years 20172025 that require a near doubling of the current standards. Combined with the more stringent rules for 20112016, the new standards will increase the average cost of a new car by $3,000 by 2025.
The question is whether, after the extras burdens and bureaucracy involved cause businesses to relocate and after energy restrictions cause brownouts and blackouts, the administration's opponents and the general public will be able to join the dots. If they do, environmentalism could be a major factor in any backlash.
The three Japanese researchers report that plant dry weight increased monotonically with each increase in CO 2 , to where the CO 2 -induced increase in plant shoot dry weight in the 10,000 ppm environment was 274% greater than that in ambient air at 45??C and 286% greater than that in ambient air at 60??C, while plant root dry weight in the 10,000 ppm environment was 5,533% greater than that in ambient air at 45??C and 4,960% greater than that in ambient air at 60??C. What it means
Remember the criterion of science? Only falsifiable predictions yield the meaning of observations. Climate models do not give falsifiable predictions, especially not at the resolution of CO2-forcing. Therefore, they can give no causal meaning to increased atmospheric CO2. They cannot explain the warming climate. They can not predict the future climate. The observation of rising atmospheric CO2, alone, is not enough to certify anything except a rising level of atmospheric CO2. Knowing causality and predicting outcomes requires a falsifiable theory. Dr. Morrison hasn??t one, and neither does anyone else. Those who predict torrid climate futures literally do not know what they??re talking about. But that hasn??t stopped them from talking about it anyway. Dr. Morrison??s position on climate is indistinguishable from an intuitive alarm grounded in subjective certainties.
And when the accompanying chart showed that fully half of all volcanoes in the Cascade Range had erupted around the same time, well, it looked obvious that volcanic activity correlates with low sunspot activity.
The University of Colorados Sea Level Research Group decided in May to add 0.3 millimeters -- or about the thickness of a fingernail -- every year to its actual measurements of sea levels, sparking criticism from experts who called it an attempt to exaggerate the effects of global warming.
loss based on transient phenomena, while not acknowledging the possibility of
No one source really has specific "reliable" numbers and it varies anywhere from 23% to 40% depending on where you get your information. The reason more people are not falling for the global warming hoax is because many are taking the time to examine the overall picture.
Clearly geologically induced heat flow is a tenable alternative explanation to recent glacial acceleration on the Svalbard Islands. Disappointingly, this possibility is never mentioned in worldwide press releases, but the much more speculative notion of man-made global warming is mentioned in nearly all media coverage.
A paper published by the Danish Meteorological Institute finds a remarkable correlation of Arctic sea ice observations over the past 500 years to ???the solar cycle length, which is a measure of solar activity.A close correlation (R=0.67) ofhigh significance (0.5 % probability of a chance occurrence) is found between the two patterns,suggesting a link from solar activity to the Arctic Ocean climate.?? The paper adds to several others demonstrating that Arctic sea ice extent and climate is controlled by natural variations in solar activity, ocean & atmospheric oscillations, winds & storm activity , not man-made CO2.
"New' energy, high-speed rail stars of speech:
Global warming Idiots: "Sunspot and temperature correlations do not prove causality."
Illustration of increased trade winds in the Pacific and Indian Oceans during the recent warming hiatus, which enhanced the flow of ocean water through the Indonesian archipelago. This resulted in an abrupt increase of Indian Ocean heat content. Credit: Sang-Ki Lee
It is also this latter difference that will make my next policy substantially more expensive. In standardizing options, the Congress standardized on the most expensive options (broadest possible benefits, smallest possible deductible).
Anyone who lives in the nation's capital knows that it has been FREEZING, with well below average temperatures. Even today, inauguration day, started out with the wind chill in single digits. It's good to know that the president already is seeking to fulfill his promise to halt global warming. After all, as candidate Barack Obama told us in his June speech celebrating having locked up the Democratic Party nomination
The position papers from Ban's conclave make clear that Ban and his team are deeply concerned that momentum toward the MDGs, as they are known, is faltering, although one paper notes that "with the right policies, adequate investment and reliable international support, the MDGs remain achievable."
What Mr. Lazear wants the U.S, to do is limit "carbon emissions" but admits that "The economics also work against a major transformation in the technology of producing power, either mobile or stationary. Coal is cheap. Natural gas is becoming even cheaper."
CAA 165(a)(3) , also cited by the majority, provides additional contextual evidence that BACT does not encompass GHGs. The provision stipulates that the owner or operator of a major source may not cause, or contribute to, air pollution in excess of any ?(A) maximum allowable increase or maximum allowable concentration for any pollutant in any area to which this part applies more than one time per year, (B) national ambient air quality standard in any air quality control region, or (C) any other applicable emission standard or standard of performance under this chapter.? There are no area-specific allowable GHG increases or concentrations. There are no GHG air quality standards or control regions. The EPA?s GHG tailpipe standards are not ?applicable? to stationary sources, which in turn cannot cause or contribute to exceedences of mobile emission standards.
In 2007, Obama explained he was running for president "because I don't want to wake up one morning four years from now . . . to see that the oceans rose another few inches and the planet has reached the point of no return because we couldn't find a way to stop ourselves from buying oil from dictators. I don't want to see that." Given how he deals with nuclear power, one can only conclude he didn't mean a word of it.
The Professor looked very closely at the diagram showing the anomalies in short-wave and, separately, in long-wave radiation, and noticed that, though both had run level until 1997 (and, indeed, there had been no ???global warming?? from 1980 to 1997), they had been sharply dislocated until 2000, when short-wave radiation ran level at a new and lesser flux, while long-wave radiation ran level at a new and greater flux.
That's bad news for our refineries along the Gulf of Mexico, which could be refining Canada's heavy crude and blending it with light crude from North Dakota.
To be fair, President Xi had an inherent advantage during this recent trip Down Under. In addition to attending the G-20 meeting, the Chinese leader was there to sign the China-Australia Free Trade Agreement one hailed by many Australians as the most comprehensive FTA China has signed.
In this Saturday, July 31 file photo a field of unidentified cereals burning near the town of Voronezh some 294 miles south of Moscow, after weeks of searing heat and practically no rain. A severe drought destroyed one-fifth of the wheat crop in Russia, the worlds third-largest exporter, and now wildfires are sweeping in to finish off some of the fields that remained.
Therein lies a principle. So theoretically if the molecules of Carbon Dioxide gas are hotter than the other gases, then theoretically it might be possible for the teeniest-weeniest warming to occur. But it is as remote as swimmers off the coasts of the Riviera who might occasionally piddle while bathing; it is as remote as the possibility that they are warming the Mediterranean!
But sometimes, the King Bull says no, not good enough. No one knows why. The smell? Bad taste? In that case, in another few days the mother will try again. And it may or may not be accepted that time.
Baliunas: No, those observations have been overturned. . . . Ice can change for reasons other than temperature. It can change because precipitation's changed. Some of the models, in fact, say that sea ice should be growing as you warm a little bit because it's so cold at the North Pole that you warm a little bit and get more precipitation.
Abraham again artfully distorts or carefully omits what I actually said. First, he says that the IPCC predicts 20-50 cm of sea-level rise this century, not 6 cm. Well, yes it does, but the reason for the difference is that the IPCC's figure (which still amounts to below 2 feet, not 20, and it's actually rising at just 1 ft/century at present, if that) is for sea-level rise from all sources, chiefly thermosteric expansion, not just from ice-melt.
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Lower energy prices, end dependence on conflict oil, generate jobs and cash for the American and Canadian economies.
Big-Government grows one law at a time
Check out the National Consumer Coalition's Cooler Heads website at www.globalwarming.org.
Finally, some appeasement conservatives seem to think that agreeing to a carbon tax will let them shed the climate denier label that has dogged them in the past. But theyre engaging in wishful thinking. Conservatives will not be able to take the climate issue off the table with a carbon tax, because efficient taxation of carbon emissions is not what environmentalists actually want.
As the hostilities between the current government and the Tea Party movement have become increasingly rancorous, the division of American society into two cultures holding thoroughly incompatible worldviews has become obvious. In fact, the two forces are clearly on an unavoidable collision course. Although many people may understandably be most interested in knowing which side will prevail, I think an equally important and troubling question is precisely by what means the matter will be resolved. Will reason prevail and the people in power either have their agenda confirmed or step aside gracefully? Or will there be intransigence, increasing conflict, and even violence?
The Chinese submission is part of the paperwork submitted by a variety of nations in advance of negotiations on a new global climate treaty, which is slated to be unveiled at a grand climate summit meeting in Paris at the end of 2015. This weeks ballyhooed climate summit in New York City was intended to kick-start the diplomatic process that will wend toward the Paris finale.
CEI Expert Available to Comment: Associate Director of Technology Studies Ryan Radia on the FTC's misguided efforts:
As my latest book describes, I contend that they have been fooled by Mother Nature, and that in fact warming alters clouds in ways that mitigate not amplify ??? the small amount of direct warming caused by increasing atmospheric CO2.
Please dont hesitate to contact me or Jim Lakely if you have questions or suggestions.
Of course, this war on coal comes from the same administration that put the "crucify them" Administrator Al Armendariz in charge of the biggest oil and gas producing region of the country. In fact, EPA's crucifixion philosophy is so obvious now that even the left leaning Washington Post said that the Obama EPA is "earning a reputation for abuse." But I think Kim Strassel of the Wall Street Journal put it best when she said that Armendariz was "a perfect general for Mr. Obama's war against natural gas" and "on the front lines" of President Obama's battle to end fossil fuels and affordable energy.
Every once in a great while when our moon's orbit takes it closer to Earth something quite remarkable can happen, a government official tells the truth. Apparently the increased gravitational force of the closer moon wrenches the truth from the unwitting official's mouth. Before you know it he or she has blurted out something that in a moment, changes the entire landscape. With the last full moon being closer to earth since 1993 just such a thing happened in Australia.
antarctic runway melting antarctic runway melting australias $46 million antarctic airstrip melting leaving scrambling find link frozen continent dreamers cast ...
Many Europeans blame the United States for this lack of progress. In Europe, the social demand for action on climate appears to be stronger than it is in the United States. Yet, even in Europe, GHG reductions have not been nearly as sharp as those stipulated by the Kyoto Protocol. European leaders harshly criticized America's rejection of the Kyoto Protocol. Economically, though, for the U.S., the Protocol's costs would have more than outweighed its benefits. Politically, its high costs clearly exceeded the rather low U.S. national willingness to paya mismatch that doomed its chances for acceptance. The experience raises a question about whether the conditions that would permit a better outcome are yet in place.
The math often is applicable, of course; usually for simple problems and in small cases the results of which would not be in much dispute even without the use of probability and statistics. Take, for example, a medical trial with two drugs, D and P, given to equal numbers of patients for an explicitly definable disease that is either absent or present. As long as no cheating took place and the two groups of patients balanced, then if more patients got better using drug D, that drug is probably better. In fact, just knowing that drug D performed better (and no cheating and balance) is evidence enough for a rational person to prefer D over P.
The climate science field, and the broader community of academics, have received an enormous black eye as a result of defending the hockey stick and his behavior. Its time to increase the integrity of climate research particularly with regards to increasing transparency, calling out irresponsible advocacy, and truly promoting academic freedom so that scientists are free to pursue research without fear of recriminations from the gatekeepers and consensus police.
I hope that you are following the lively discussion about Burger and Cubasch at Climates of the Past here , where Mann aka Anonymous Referee #2 is carrying on in a quite extraodinary way. Ill probably try to weigh in over there at some point. The dialogue has exploded fairly quickly and Ive collated some of the discussion in the post here.
Well, might i suggest that warming only compromises defense if silly projects are proposed to weaken our economic and military posture.
Conservation is part of the answer. Higher electric prices will induce consumers to conserve, thus reducing demand, but supply must be addressed as well. While dismaying consumers, higher electric rates will also encourage suppliers to find new sources of energy. For a price, more power can be bought from elsewhere. In this emergency, environmental rules that limit electric power output should be temporarily lifted.
Plentiful and inexpensive fossil fuels are the preferred energy source, whether it be to run your car, heat your home, or generate electricity. Oil, gas, and coal are relatively safe, readily portable, fairly efficient, and relatively energy dense. While fossil fuels perhaps are not the perfect energy source, they do go a long way towards meeting our current needs, and the infrastructure (and know how) is in place to allow for rapid expansion into the future. So, all in all, fossil fuels are pretty darn good nowand as far as the eye can see.
Something is rotten in the state of Denmark New Zealand. A judge has disregarded as inadmissible expert evidence from a statistician who showed that the adjustment method NIWA claimed they used only give a 0.3C/Century rise in temperature and ruled that NIWA (now a limited company) can adjust the temperature record as they see fit without having to demonstrate the use of a method based on any accepted science. heres the graph:
Reservations among member governments continued at the meeting of environment ministers on March 2. Environment Daily reported, "At a ministerial meeting in Brussels environment minister Altero Matteoli made a prolonged attempt to force a declaration from his colleagues that future emission-cutting action should depend on the treaty being ratified by Russia and thus entering into force. The move follows increasing unrest in Italian industry circles at the imminent prospect of the greenhouse gas curbs under the EU climate emissions trading system. The Italian government first reflected this last December when it tried to characterize Kyoto explicitly as a threat to business at a summit of EU leaders.
According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia, within a few years winter snowfall will become a very rare and exciting event.
Michael Mann, a climatologist who directs the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University said "If you're a betting person or the insurance or reinsurance industry, for that matter you'd probably go with a prediction of greater frequency and intensity of tornadoes as a result of human-caused climate change."
Whether ratified or implemented through the back door, Kyoto will have serious destructive consequences. Energy rationing will devastate employment in the steel, chemical manufacture, petroleum refining, cement, and paper industries. Rising consumer energy prices will squeeze working families and the poor. Slower growth in the world economy will imperil millions of desperately poor people in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. "Those are enormous costs to pay to combat an unproven problem," said Lewis.
When I re-examined the De Bilt data, I was intrigued both by the size of the adjustment for a seemingly innocuous move of a couple hundred meters from a pagoda hut to a Stevenson hut and by the large discrepancy between the adjustments applied in 3 standard versions of the data. If the KNMi adjustment is right, then errors in the GISS and GHCN adjustments are up to 0.5 deg C in the 20th century and up to 1 deg C in the 19th century extremely large errors in a well-studied site.
Cutting Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Exporting Technological Solutions to Developing Countries
"I think they would have preferred the term "ironic". They were those kind of people."
Carswell's advice to British Conservatives and, by implication, American Republicans, is to "stop drifting to the soggy center." Tony Abbott shows you can win.
Round these 'ere parts there is much excitement over the possibility of a Grand Match , when Scottish lochs freeze over to a sufficient extent to allow for a curling tournament. There have only been three of these since the war, but the ice on some of the likely lochs are now within a whisker of the seven inches required to mount the tournament. Unfortunately, it looks like there may be too much snow sitting on the ice here at Loch Leven, but the Lake of Menteith is apparently looking good.
Now that we've considered the benefits the EPA claims Utility MACT would bring, let's consider the costs. The EPA's own estimates say the rule will cost $10 billion annually, making it one of the most expensive regulations ever. More than 20 states are suing the EPA to stop the regulation, which they fear would endanger electric reliability. These states, in short, worry their lights may go out.