Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Now compare these figures with those in AR4 and AR5.Our new best observational ECS estimate of 1.75C is more than 40% lower than both the best estimate in AR4 of 3C and the 3.2C average of GCMs used in AR5. At least as importantly, the top of the likely range for ECS of 3.0C is a third lower than that given in AR5 (4.5C) even after making it much more conservative than is implied by averaging the ranges for each of the observational estimates.
Wind turbines and solar panels, although pleasing to Mr. Obama's green environmental base, are produced increasingly abroad, and particularly in China, so mandating their use creates more jobs offshore. But building nuclear plants will be union jobs here at home.
UPDATE: Most Internet gambling cafes closed since start of new law:
Dr. Lning has not been very impressed by the IPCC climate models (97% of them have markedly overestimated the projected warming) andI asked him if he thought the models were getting better with time as we keep hearing that they are being fine-tuned. Dr. Lning doesnt believe so. They continue to overestimate CO2 and volcanoes and seriously underestimate solar and ocean cycles . On CO2 climate sensitivity, he thinks a doubling will lead to a temperature increase of only 1.0 to 1.5C.
Furthermore, perhaps it isnt a reasonable expectation that if you live in a flood zone on a sand bar, someone ELSE is responsible for your rescue and restoration inside days after a hurricane. Perhaps YOU ought to be letting people know that when they make stupid decisions on where to build, it isnt someone ELSE who is responsible to fix it, and pronto too.
2008 / Feb / 29 at 11:20:00
It does not take long to estimate that the capital cost of Mr Huhne?s new energy policy could well be more than 300 billion over 10 years, or 30 billion a year. Since the total wholesale cost of the electricity we used last year was only around 19 billion, this alone would be well on the way to tripling our bills by 2020.
This assessment is legally accurate but ultimately unpersuasive. The Byrd-Hagel resolution, which requires emission limits for developing countries, expresses the "sense" of the Senate. That sense could change, just as foreign aid bribes or the prospect of selling emission credits may induce other developing countries to make "voluntary commitments." Moreover, several major corporations, including General Motors, Monsanto, and American Electric Power, have joined the global warming bandwagon, preaching the virtues of emissions reduction. If corporate America waffles, can the U.S. Senate be far behind?
as Gavin wrote, than the fractional contribution to the current radiative imbalance is weighted towards the more recent forcings. Since CO2 has been rising since 1750, at least part of the radiative forcing of CO2 has equilibrated. Thus the claim that CO2 is 50% (or about 30% as estimated on Climate Science based on the 2007 IPCC figure SPM.2; see ) is an overstatement of its actual current radiative forcing.
Australias antarctic runway melting | Myall Coast Nota
Now, before I go any further, I acknowledge that I am using three tuned parameters. The parameters are lambda , the climate sensitivity; tau , the time constant; and c , the variable that controls the fatness of the tail of the exponential decay.
decline? To what extent is this issue now generally considered urgent, or even
The models are extremely oversimplified, he said. They dont represent the clouds in detail at all. They simply use a fudge factor to represent the clouds.
Johnston concludes by calling for a change in climate science practices and funding. Since one of the major sources of disagreement between scientists lies in the use of different datasets, he recommends that "public funding for climate science should be concentrated on the development of better, standardized observational datasets that achieve close to universal acceptance as valid and reliable." On the other hand, the continued development of "fine-grained climate models," in the absence reliable data, only perpetuates "faith-based climate policy" (77-79).
What's interesting is that there are those arguing that the fight should be called off before a punch is even thrown. The winner will have to take on The Status Quo, and cap-and-traders want to go into that fight unblemished. Since they're the only ones with a chance, the argument goes, the Pigou Clubbers should toss in the towel now.
Evangelicals Who Jumped on the "Global Warming" Bandwagon Looking Silly
There are 'Twice as Many' British Muslims Fighting for ISIS Than in UK Armed Forces.
... leaving me in the strangest condition imaginable, with the boat wandering off course, my jaw hanging down to my umbilicus, a pulse rate well into the triple digits, adrenalin-shocked, awed beyond words, smelling like the dumpster behind a cheap fish restaurant, blasted by the natural beauty I had just witnessed, and uncertain whether I was going to vomit or not, but tending toward the former.
There seems little doubt that the Arctic will be in for another cold period during the next 30 years or so, and that, as Judith Curry indicates, we will see a long term recovery of Arctic ice extent.
If the pace of CO2 reduction from 2005 to 2015 continues into 2030, CO2 emissions could be around 1,300 million metric tons -- a 45 percent reduction from 2005 and substantially lower than the goals of the Clean Power Plan.
Well Jeff, maybe because its perhaps, patently wrong?
Finally it is hard to understand Sackurs claim, No longer does thick ice protect their shoreline . In 2012 the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported ice extent in the Bering Sea was much greater than average, reaching the second-highest levels for January in the satellite record. NASAs Earth Observatory wrote, For most of the winter of 20112012, the Bering Sea has been choking with sea ice NSIDC data indicate that ice extent in the Bering Sea for most of this winter has been between 20 to 30 percent above the 1979 to 2000 average. February 2012 had the highest ice extent for the area since satellite records started. And in 2013 Bering Sea ice was again above normal as seen in National Snow and Ice Data Center picture.
Any one of these measures would have defined a Congress. To push all of them simultaneously, plus a major financial-regulation bill to address what was argued to be the causes of the financial crisis, proved to be too much. Nevertheless, time after time, when political warning signals went up, the administration and the congressional leadership pushed forward.
EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson says we face grave threats to human health, welfare and justice. She's absolutely right. However, the dangers are not due to factory or power plant emissions, or supposed effects of "dangerous manmade global warming."
A political advocacy coalition this week started a statewide advertising campaign warning North Dakotan Senators Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad against voting for the "Dirty Air Act." The radio spot insinuates that the Senate is considering legislation that would "gut" the Clean Air Act, but this is untrue. In fact, there is a growing bipartisan effort in Congress to restore the Clean Air Act to its original meaning.
Gore: The US West and the Southeast are experiencing prolonged severe droughts. Truth: America also endured the Dust Bowl and a 25-year drought that forced Anasazi Indians to abandon their villages.
Both of these scenarios: (1) the lack of significant warming, or (2) rapid warming, could happen with a climate system that warms exactly the same amount in the next 100 years (that is, has the same climate sensitivity). The difference is the timing of natural warming and cooling events, which can last two or three decades.
There are still large gaps in our understanding of the causes of global warming, according to a new study by the National Research Council, Global Environmental Change: Research Pathways for the Next Decade. The 600-page report argues that more research money is needed for global climate observations systems.
The European Emissions Trading Scheme -15 September 2010 http://scienceandpublicpolicy.org/originals/emissions trading scheme.html
By comparing small RNA molecules (microRNAs) in sperm from the obese mice as compared to the control mice, researchers deduced that changes in these molecules might be partly responsible for the transmission of these conditions from father to offspring.
I keeps with if (1), in essence, even if I could not express myself in The question of knsligheten. Whether the models are referred to describe not yet been observed klimattillstnd fr nrvarande all can be validated tillfredsstllande, I think is questionable.
The CPP, plus the many other regulationssuch as those coming on ozone and methanehave many lawmakers concerned about the EPA's impact on grid reliability and the economy. President Obama is not likely to sign any legislation designed to rein in his personal priorities, but Republicans can make changes in EPA appropriations.
Five years later we are up to almost 400 ppm, and Antarctic sea ice hassteadilyincreased to record levels.
Was there a Medieval Warm Period? YES , according to data published by 1018 individual scientists from 586 research institutions in 44 different countries and counting! This issues Medieval Warm Period Record comes from Victoria Lower Glacier , Ross Sea Region of Antarctica. To access the entire Medieval Warm Period Projects database, click here .
Ice extent loss has dropped off dramatically in the last few days, as seen in the DMI graph above and the JAXA graph below.
In the third school, where I find myself, reside the lukewarmers those who argue that carbon dioxide indeed is warming surface temperatures, but that its effect is modest and that we are inadvertently adapting. Our mantra: Its not the heat, its the sensitivity. In other words, most climate projections assume that surface temperature is overly sensitive to forcing from carbon dioxide. Our bible consists of observed temperature trends as CO2 increased in the last several decades.
Funding wind energy with subsidies does not give us energy independence. There are several technical reasons for this. For instance, consider the fact that in every wind turbine there is something like 4000 pounds of rare earth elements. China produces 95% percent of these rare earth elements, so the more turbines we buy, the more dependent we are on the China. That is not energy independence. Furthermore, the extreme reliance on rare earth elements is not considered sustainable either (which is another green mantra).
Czech Republic Although it is May, the weather is more like in February.
Hansens GISS shows just how poor Hansens 1988 forecasts were. The GISS trend line since 1960 is overlaid in red on Hansens 1988 forecast graph ( Fig.3 .) The green dot is the GISS reading for April, 2010. Scenario C assumed that CO2 would remain fixed at 368 ppm.
They are preparing to be air lifted out by a helicopter from the Chinese ice breaker Snow Dragon which can lift passengers with a hoist, or land nearby on the ice. Passengers have been using shovels to create a makeshift landing pad.
At a presentation in Silicon Valley in 2007, Giuliani met with Schwarzenegger on the subject of climate change, and afterward expressed general agreement with Schwarzenegger's approach, saying, ""I generally agree with Gov. Schwarzenegger," he said. "He's a good friend and a progressive leader." See "100% in president race, Giuliani tells tech group: Ex-N.Y. mayor lauds Schwarzenegger in Silicon Valley Talk," San Francisco Chronicle, February 13, 2007. Available at http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/02/13/GIULIANI.TMP.
Abundant supply is also supporting demand for coal. The traded volumes of coal will increase by a further 20 percent by 2020, Dickson said, including supply of lower grade coal from Indonesia, Australia and South Africa.
As the CO 2 content of the air rises, it is likely that calcareous grasslands will increase the amount of soil moisture they contain. With greater soil moisture contents, it is likely that microbial activities will increase in such soils, including those that mineralize inorganic nutrients making them available for plant usage. Thus, this chain of events should further stimulate plant growth in these ecosystems by enhancing the growth response resulting from the aerial fertilization effect of increasing atmospheric CO 2 concentrations.
verlagrat at this nettoflde is an extensive natural exchange of CO 2 between both atmosphere and ocean p 60 Gtonnes / r and between the atmosphere and landbiosfren p 120 Gtonnes / r (photosynthesis and respiration). Another is the natural kolflde lngsamma transport to the sea (on a time scale of millions of years) via frvittring of rocks and vergng to calcium carbonate. This carbon tervnder to the atmosphere through volcanism.
In neighboring Connecticut, the General Assembly has passed a climate bill discussed in the March 31 issue. The bill would require greenhouse gas emissions to be reduced by using Kyoto-like measures. Just as in Romney's new plan, the Connecticut bill would reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2010 and 10 percent below 1990 levels by 2020. The bill is currently awaiting the Governor's signature for approval (Associated Press, May 5).
Why Hasn?t The Earth Warmed In Nearly 15 Years?
There is really nothing else that can be said about these matters and that is both true and fundamental. These concepts require one to think a bit and to be smart enough but all these conceptual insights are compact and once you learn these principles, you know them. The amount of stuff one may learn about the meaning of information in physics is finite. It is limited. Once you learn it, and you should learn it before you get your undergraduate degree, you know everything about it. Extra babbling about the information is guaranteed to be meaningless or vacuous. Or untrue. Or some combination of these adjectives.
The flood of emails coming from the University of East Anglia, the admitted errors regarding the Himalayan Glaciers, as well as the nakedly political agendas of some of those allegedly giving impartial scientific advice have degraded the image of the IPCC as the unchallengeable body of scientific experts on global warming.
"Global Warming Caused Space Shuttle Columbia to Fall Apart"
Australia should cease all cooperation with the IPCC and no Govt funded scientist or organization should participate.
Jean-Pascal van Ypersele told The Age recent satellite observations showed extensive melting in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets.
Sadly, Germanys leading climate scientistsare far more preoccupied with transforming society and spreading panic among the population then doing science. Spreading panic is a favourite practice of Stefan Rahmstorf who, like his director Hans Schellnhuber, is a scientist at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Research (PIK).
Lilley calls on the government to cease basing its climate change policy on the flawed Stern Review and commission a new independent cost benefit study of alternative strategies.
This is very interesting, because I was discussing this very issue with Ed Hawkins and Doug McNeall on Twittter last month. Ed pointed me to AR4 on the subject ;
Bernie McCune holds degrees in both engineering and biology and has worked with both the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency and NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. "Hansen admitted there is still some question," McCune said. "But, his presentation was mostly political and didn't prove that CO2 is the problem; it didn't show that humans had anything to do with it."
united GOP opposition in the House, while figuring out ways to compromise to
A very significant correlation (Rz 0.57 to 0.80) is found in the 22 yr solar Hale cycle band (1632 years ) with lags from zero to four years between latitudinal averages air surface temperature and Rz. Therefore it seems that the 22 yr magnetic field solar cycle might have a higher effect on Earths climate than solar variations related to the 11-yr sunspot cycle.
For example, public schools of all levels are now classified at the national level in terms of success to various examinations by their students; a kind of dellEducazione Serie A, with the winners awarded officially and last in line punished, up to the maximum ignominy of seeing a Dean replaced because considered incapable. An idea maybe good, except that the same schools are then forced, according to Another initiative, to receive the highest number of disabled people possible. What should be done then, that Dean? Worry about bringing their School to head the rankings, or make sure that all students, including those with disabilities, are followed and helped as best we can? Unfortunately there any coordination between the various policies, and the ministry guidelines are conflicting if not changing with the season.
Many Manhattans of new ice forming in open water between the older floes, in the Arctic right now.
Spencer also explained why climate models tend to over-predict how much warming will occur as greenhouse gas emissions rise. Spencer argues a warming bias is built into the models themselves.
The entire thrust of the show is that rainfall in ..the south-western corner of Western Australia.. dropped ~15% in the 1970s and a scientist is quoted linking this to changes in Antarctic ice cores. The scientist Dr Tas van Ommen
Meanwhile, culled from this curling blog is a rather wonderful snippet about curling in Lochmaben that tells us so much about modern Britain without even trying:
The birds are renowned for their flying range, traveling miles to hunt down a jack rabbit. The latest population estimate in 2004 placed the number at about 80,000 in North America. But biologists say the birds have been declining, partly because they were getting killed by wind turbine blades.
The biases in the AOGCM forcings are generally largest at the surface level. For five out of seven surface shortwave forcings and four out of seven surface longwave forcings, differences between the mean AOGCM and LBL calculations are statistically significant. In addition, the largest biases in the shortwave and longwave forcings from all seven experiments occur at the surface layer.The reasonable accuracy of AOGCM forcings at TOM and the significant biases at the surface together imply that the effects of increased WMGHGs on the radiative convergence of the atmosphere are not accurately simulated.? .
But when the model predictions are tested against the latest high-quality data from our best instruments, they are seen to have comprehensively failed.
Absurd, you say? Yes, but the fault lies not in my analysis, but in the premises adopted by the majority in Mass v. EPA . The majority interpreted CAA Sec. 302(g) to mean that anything emitted into the ambient air is by definition an air pollutant and, thus, potentially subject to EPA regulation. But on that reading, even pollution-free, absolutely-clean air is an air pollutant, if it is emitted. That is absurd.Nonetheless,that formalistic definition of air pollutant, whereby a thing can be a pollutant even if it does not pollute the air,was the lynchpin of the majoritys (and petitioners) argument. (For more detail on this,see pp. 5-7 of my comment on the ANPR.)
Thats an increase of about 3 million barrels produced in the United States every single day. And the U.S. EIA predicts that U.S. production will continue to expand to approximately 9.5 million barrels per day by the end of next year.
The president claims he's imposing all of this hardship on American families and our economy in the name of a greater good. He says we need to wean ourselves off fossil fuels to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The president ignores the fact that the U.S. is not the dominant global emitter of CO2.
policy review. One administration official shared with Sanger the assessment he'd given the president: The Pentagon went along with the deadline believing they
animals are cooler than theirs)." His answer (and it applies to far more fields than science) is
Update of Background Studies in the Search for the Higgs Boson in the Diphoton Channel with the ATLAS Detector at sqrt(s) = 7 TeV and it was released yesterday. Click at the images to see that after 94 inverse picobarns, there is absolutely no excess of diphoton events at 115 GeV.
Finally at the 8:40 mark of the video, Schellnhuber is taped in an interview saying:
8. Quotation of the Day, is from Alston Chase (quoted by Michael Crichton in the appendix of his book about global warming "State of Fear"):
The magnitude of the radiative warming impetus typically predicted to occur in response to a doubling of the air's CO 2 content - which is still a future event (and probably quite distant at that) - is about 4 Wm -2 . Hence, it can be appreciated that over the majority of the planet's surface, the radiative cooling influence of atmospheric aerosols (many of which are produced by anthropogenic activities) prevails, suggesting a probable net anthropogenic-induced climatic signal that must be very close to zero and nowhere near capable of producing what climate alarmists refer to as the unprecedented warming of the 20th century. We thus conclude that the surface temperature record on which they rely, i.e., the infamous "hockey stick" reconstruction, is either bogus or that the warming, if real, is due to something quite different from anthropogenic forcing.
BBC Confirms That Polar Melt Has Almost No Effect On Sea Level
As for other potential explanations for these observations, Jimenez and Cortes note conspecific corals "have shown differences in susceptibility to bleach, mortality rates and recovery capabilities (Brown, 1997; Hoegh-Guldberg, 1999; Marshall and Baird, 2000; Fitt et al ., 2001; Glynn et al ., 2001)," which may "reflect corals' adaptation to local conditions, different warming intensities at each locality, thermal acclimation, and presence of several clades of symbionts." In fact, they state moderate warming events "may positively affect coral reef communities," noting "increases in growth rates, reproductive activity and recruitment pulses have been observed after some El Nio episodes (Glynn et al ., 1991, 1994; Feingold, 1995; Guzman and Cortes, 2001; Vargas-Angel et al ., 2001; Jimenez and Cortes, 2003b)."
Wrong on both counts. Where a scientific issue is involved, the best way to approach the formulation of public policy is not to base it on a contrived consensus of self-interested parties, nor to "ask the UN", but to pay attention to the facts and keep an open mind.
In the next few months there is an opportunity for some farm organisations to stop behaving as turkeys and instead bite the hand that has fed them so generously over the last year. It would involve calling the bluff of the Commonwealth Government over the Murray Darling water plan.
First, it assumes a fundamentally chaotic, unstable climate system in which a tiny change (in this case, CO 2 rising from 27 to 54 thousandths of a percent of the atmosphere) will set off a positive feedback loop that leads inevitably to catastrophe. If that were the case, we would expect to see many examples of just that in geologic history. We dont.
But unlikely as it may seem at the moment, the final irony is that if we keep our heads, the aftermath of this disaster may give us a clear view of how a new generation of nuclear power might be possible. As of press time it is still difficult to know exactly what is happening at the reactors, as contradictory and tentative information pours forth on an hourly basis. It will be weeks or months before we have an accurate understanding of what has occurred. The Department of Energy, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the private-sector Nuclear Energy Institute were reluctant to comment all week because of the fast-moving situation.
Palestine needs leaders who understand governance, would help constituents comprehend how free institutions work, and would be prepared to declare their land ready for statehood.