Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
So is the atmosphere being heated from the top down or from the bottom up? The answer must be both. The Sun is heating mass, but only where there is mass. So the Greenhouse Gases must absorb the incoming infrared, and this is most easily illustrated by Water Vapour and clouds. For the full scientific argument on how this is done I would refer the reader to the paper by Hans Schreuder, Greenhouse gases in the atmosphere cool the Earth. (Affix link here). Clearly as Hans Schreuder argues the Greenhouse Gases absorb incoming radiation near-IR, which is far greater than far-IR, and therefore the Greenhouse Gases, far from causing warming, do exactly the opposite, - they have a net cooling effect, and this has been confirmed by NASA.
I have one very serious criticism of Anthonys post on the issue. He left out an important reference to Knowles et al 2006, who provided a definite comment on the citation issue in a 2006 conference.
The find was likened to the Bakken and Eagle Ford shale oil projects in the US, which have resulted in massive outflows and have led to predictions that the US could overtake Saudi Arabia as the world??s largest oil producer as soon as this year.
America's oil and gas boom has the potential to jump-start the economy by lowering consumers' energy costs and attracting energy-intensive manufacturing in search of low-cost energy. The oil boom has come about despite, not because of, government policies.
So how does dreck end up getting published in journals? McIntyre quotes Andrew Weaver:
McIntyre doesnt just use bad (or out of context) data, he also *manufactures his own* if bad data arent readily available:
Whilst its a tad galling hearing the Copernicus denying church issuing a fatwa against global warming, its perhaps a sign that the end is really nigh for this scam. This is how the Gaurdian reported this Santa Claus (or rearranged Satans clau present from the Vatican)
Though this may be obvious to readers, its worth repeating once in a while the chain of reasoning that must all be true for dramatic government action to be justified in reducing CO2. That chain is roughly as follows:
In a nutshell, the issue is rather simple, yet powerful. Salby is arguing that atmospheric CO2 increase that we observe is a product of temperature increase, and not the other way around, meaning it is a product of natural variation.
Though it has its limits, the peer-review process is meant to provide checks and balances, to weed out bad and misleading work, and to bring some measure of objectivity to scientific research. At its best, it can do that. But when the same few people review and approve each other's work, you invariably get conflicts of interest. This weakens the case for the supposed consensus, and becomes, instead, another reason to be suspicious. Nerds who follow the climate debate blogosphere have known for years about the cliquish nature of publishing and peer review in climate science (see here, for example).
The worlds response to climate change is deeply flawed. The conventional wisdom on how to deal with climate change has failed and its time to change course. To date, climate policies have been guided by targets and timetables for emissions reduction derived from various academic exercises. Such methods are both oblivious to and in violation of on-the-ground political and technological realities that serve as practical boundary conditions for effective policy making. Until climate policies are designed with respect for these boundary conditions, failure is certain. Using nothing more than arithmetic and logical explanation, this talk provides a comprehensive exploration of the problem and a proposal for a more effective way forward.
I guess its the number of people who dont believe the so-called greenhouse effect exists (I still get e-mails from them, even today), combined with the difficulty of convincing them that their everyday experience is consistent with its existence.
The latest concern is that melting glaciers and collapsing ice shelves will lead to a massive water crisis. The left-wing British newspaper The Guardian claims that "climate change is causing increasingly rapid melting of the ice" and that this will damage "communities that rely on meltwater for irrigation, hydroelectric schemes and drinking". The loss of ice will "increase sea levels worldwide". Even where glaciers are expanding in Scandinavia (and Alaska) this is apparently due to increased snowfall "also caused by climate change". So whether it is an expanding or a receding glacier, human-induced climate change is to blame.
Figure 2 shows what happens when I apply this correction to the "observed" data in Figure 1 and then re-calculate the temperature change. The overall warming trend declines from the "observed" rate of 0.116 C/decade to a "corrected" rate of 0.092 C/decade. So EPA's "observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century" has now dropped from 0.702 C to a "corrected" value of 0.552 C and 21% of EPA's increase from "anthropogenic GHG" increases has now vanished, lost to errors in the observed data.
By contrast, the US has not been hit by a major hurricane in almost nine years. Climate experts say hurricanes are getting worse.
The study that was inserted is a much more up-to-date survey of what we know about the natural variability of temperature, which suggests the Earth has been much warmer than it is presently (during the "medieval warm period" when Greenland was colonized and wine grapes grown in England). It is interesting that of all the funding agencies that contributed to the new study, the Times noted only the American Petroleum Institute, which provided the small amount of funding necessary to finish and publish the study. Ninety percent of the study's funding actually came from the governmentthe Air Force Office of Scientific Research, NASA, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The Santa Fe New Mexican's headline for Hansen's visit was: "A steep energy tax to curb global warming." Perhaps Hansen was tipping his hand, confirming the rumor that Obama will approve the long-delayed, but much-needed Keystone pipeline if Congress will approve a carbon tax. Tit for tat.
In 2014, domestic oil production soared to 8.66 million barrels per day. Thus, between 2005 and 2014, U.S. oil output grew by 3.4 million barrels per day, which is nearly five and a half times the energy output of the entire ethanol sector.
Remembering Adam Smith this July 4th (Part I)
NJ PUC rejects offshore wind project as uneconomical
We can be better prepared for drought and wildfires by improving forest management as this column previously suggested in the aftermath of the deadly California wildfires of 2003.
The answer to #1 is yes, it is settled science.
Use all the standard data sets thought reliable.
Planet Earths history of climate change (CC) is about 4,500,000,000 years in the making. Why would anyone think that it stopped yesterday, last year, last decade, last century, or even a millennium ago? Do you think the rate or direction of natural CC has changed because the dinosaurs died out many million years ago? Or do you believe it was because humans arrived en masse on the scene a few thousand years ago?
So, whats going on with the sun? The latest research was presented at the Nagoya Workshop on the Relationship between Solar Activity and Climate Changes .
29 But he is a Jew, which is one inwardly; and circumcision is that of the heart, in the spirit, and not in the letter; whose praise is not of men, but of God.
The US Navy is forecasting an increase in ice around Newfoundland and the Barents Sea this week, which would likely push Arctic ice area above the 30 year mean.
Dark Matter Search Results Using the Silicon Detectors of CDMS II (arXiv)
Looming over the villages, the two largest glaciers in the Alpsthe Aletsch (satellite picture) and Fiescher (satellite picture)grew over the next two centuries, reaching their maximum lengths around 1850. Around that time, the Aletsch stretched some 16 miles (26 kilometers); the Fiescher was larger by similar proportions, though exact measurements arent available for the smaller glacier.
What this graph shows is very simple, but also very powerful: The radiative variations CERES measures look nothing like what the radiative feedback should look like. You can put in any feedback parameter you want (the IPCC models range from 0.91 to 1.87I think it could be more like 3 to 6 in the real climate system), and you will come to the same conclusion.
Our thorough studies demonstrated that there was no evidence of increases in the frequency or magnitude of floods and droughts. This is not what the UNFCCC wanted to hear.
Laltrimenti great Armando Massarenti simplifies a bit too sulleugenetica speech in his column on Sunday Philosophy Minimum Sole24Ore, on September 10 last (nellarticolo All subscribers to the stupidity of Hitler)
We continually hear such assertions as "2014 was the planet's warmest year on record fourteen of the fifteen hottest years on record have all fallen in the first 15 years of this century." Perhaps surprisingly, such factoids are far less informative than many seem to assume. The recent year-to-year differences are almost never statistically significant. More important, the "hottest year" rhetoric is based on the surface temperature record, a collection of data that is deeply problematic, with heat-island effects difficult to expunge from the data, poor placement and shifts in the measurement stations, etc. An example: For over a century, "China" was 137 monitoring stations in four cities, and as those cities grew, "China" warmed. Surprise!
The project will be run through C40, a coalition of major cities around the world that united to study the impact of climate change on their municipalities. The group, chaired by Bloomberg, merged two years ago with the Clinton Climate Initiativean offshoot of Clintons philanthropic foundation.
If we apply the MAGICC/SCENGEN climate simulator developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and used by both IPCC and the EPA, and assume an 80 percent reduction in GHG emissions by the OECD90 (North America, Western Europe, Australia, New Zealand, and Japan), the warming averted by 2100 would be about 0.3 C. If Asia also reduces emissions by 80 percent, that would increase the averted warming by about another 1.1 C , for a total close to the goal envisioned in the carbon budget relative to RCP8.5. Can anyone possibly believe that emission reductions of 80 percent are anything other than a fantasy?
Estimates of a carbon tax's impact on world temperature do not lend much support for a carbon tax. Climatologists Pat Michaels and Chip Knappenberger provides an online calculator to estimate the impact of various cuts in CO2 emissions. The calculations are based on the MAGICC model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.
For nearly 14 years, Democrats have tried to persuade Americans that, after the disaster of 1994, they were no longer interested in making sweeping changes to the nation s health-care system.
The bbmle package has a profile function that applies to mle2 output, which has a special-purpose plot attached to it (the style of which I applied in the above graph).
The Honorable James M. Inhofe (R-OK)
The actual temperature data indicates the opposite. Since 1998 , the U.S. temperature trend has been a negative 3.2F degrees/century - yes, that is a minus trend covering the 16-year period from December 1997 through November 2013. And as this recent article about Alaska's cooling since the turn of the century confirms, its forest fires have not been a result of 21st century "global warming."
Long-anticipated results of the CLOUD experiment at CERN in Geneva appear in tomorrows issue of the journalNature(25 August). The Director General of CERN stirred controversy last month, by saying that the CLOUD teams report should be politically correct about climate change (see my 17 July post). The implication was that they should on no account endorse the Danish heresy Henrik Svensmarks hypothesis that most of the global warming of the 20th Century can be explained by the reduction in cosmic rays due to livelier solar activity, resulting in less low cloud cover and warmer surface temperatures.
The official high temperature in Fort Collins today was 98 degrees, two degrees cooler than 1936. According to the rhetoric of the newspaper, 1936 shattered 2012 temperatures.
The Corner on National Review Online In short, by opposing all drilling in Anwar, off the coasts, the continental shelf, and omitting any reference to coal, tar sands, shale, or nuclear, he apparently thinks that millions of acres of new solar panels and hundreds of thousands of wind turbines dotting our mountain crests and deserts, together with millions more acres devoted to corn, will somehow bring gas prices down or make energy more affordable. But this is absolute lunacy , and no one in the media seems willing to have him explain just how many megawatts, and how many gallons of biofuels he hopes to produce, and how millions of jobs will be created therein and how our energy prices thereby will become affordable.
While it's hardly mentioned in the media, the U.S. is currently in an extended and intense hurricane "drought." The last Category 3 or stronger storm to make landfall was Wilma in 2005. The more than seven years since then is the longest such span in over a century.
These results are quite striking. By 2035, the economy would experience an average positive employment differential of over 700,000 jobs with a peak employment differential of 1.5 million jobs. Chart 2 illustrates the impact of lifting these regulations on overall employment, across the American economy.
Listeners ended up the twilight zone?? Emerson saying the Met office predicts warming too. Does he realize that (a) the Met office have been predicting future warming every year for the last 16 years (and look how well that worked out for them), and (b) even if they are right and it warms to freakishly hot conditions in a monster El Nino in, say, 2014, unless some kind of time-bending wormhole is fritzing current physics, there is no way that can affect the trend as measured between 1997 to 2012? Do I need to explain why?
In 2005, Professor Flannery, a climate advisor to the Australian Government, predicted Sydney would be covered by 20 metres of water by the year 2050 (45 years-times). This is 444mm per year. Error to date is 26,144%
10 But glory, honour, and peace, to every man that worketh good, to the Jew first, and also to the Gentile:
The past 4 years have seen 12 major landfalling hurricanes, very low but not unprecedented ??? 1984-1987 had just 11. The most is 35 (2005-2008).
The camcorder was running at 18.3 frames per second. It's being said that in the frame 160, there was the first shot that missed everything. After 220, there was the second shot (magic bullet) that hit the governor in front as well as JFK (non-fatally). They react in some way. The third shot at 313 was used to make JFK's head explode which turned out to be lethal. The time between the first and third shot was probably over 8 seconds.
By Robert Tracinski, The Federalist, Aug 6, 2015
And so it has come to pass, as is explained in an excellent article titled, Greens Sour on Natural Gas , by Bob King, from yesterdays Politico . It starts,
Insurance premiums are rising at double-digit rates, sparking widespread anger. Republican governors are refusing to expand Medicaid, the mechanism under which a large majority of people were to become "newly insured."
A reader or a homeowner may lack the expertise to predict certain things about the climate but he surely understands what it means for the temperature to increase by 5 C in a few decades - let's say 3 decades. He may quickly learn that the warming caused by the greenhouse effect should be most pronounced in the middle troposphere. After a few minutes, he finds the graph of the mid troposphere temperatures from 1978 to 2008: three decades of data.
Ben Pile is spot on. The 97% consensus article is poorly conceived, poorly designed and poorly executed. It obscures the complexities of the climate issue and it is a sign of the desperately poor level of public and policy debate in this country that the energy minister should cite it.
The opposite La Nia weather pattern, which has been hovering around Australia for the past two years, brought flooding to the countrys east.
We used HEM to analyze the impact of making hydraulic fracturing more feasible by increasing the availability of petroleum in North America. In particular, we ran two of the same simulations that the EIA used in "Effects of Removing Restrictions on U.S. Crude Oil Exports," in comparing the impact of lifting the export ban to the impact of lifting the export ban coupled with greater availability of shale oil, shale gas, and its variants in North America.
It has become standard procedure for advocates of reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to link extreme weather events, such as floods, hurricanes, droughts, etc., to rising global temperatures. But according to the former chairman of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Dr. Bert Bolin, "There has been no effect on countries from any current change." Attempts by activists to establish such a link "is why I do not trust the Greens," stated Bolin.
Thus, the lack of any evidence for mass extinctions causes no hesitation on the part of those environmentalists calling for quick and draconian action.
Today's Links: April 9, 2012
Sea level has been rising steadily since the mid 19thC, with no evidence of long term acceleration.
In the 27 November 2009 issue of Science, Michael Mann and eight coauthors (Mann et al., 2009) describe how they used a global climate proxy network consisting of data derived from ice core, coral, sediment, and various other records to reconstruct a Northern Hemispheric surface air temperature history covering the past 1,500 years for the purpose of determining the characteristics of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Warm Period. They used Manns Nature trick of Climategate fame, truncating the reconstructed temperature history near its end and replacing it with modern-day instrumental data, so the last part of the record cannot be validly compared with the earlier portion.
Simple. We call it what it is, and we continue to speak freely and fearlessly, whether they like it or not, until they actually get to the point of putting us on trial for ?high crimes against humanity?. We will not, repeat not, repeat not, be silenced.
Since the 1D models are the type used in the parameterization of the stable boundary layer in multi-decadal climate model projections, this is yet another reason to question their use as accurate predictive models, including their use to forecast the long term trends in near surface air temperature over land and sea ice.
Another powerful negative-feedback mechanism which acts to reduce the effects of global warming has been identified, as scientists say that rising temperatures cause plants to emit higher levels of planet-cooling aerosols.
More evidence of huge explosions triggered by a magnetic reversal
I thought it was kind of interesting that upon reading this McKinsey & Co study (currently the top one in the list) on education, Kevin Drum and a number of other left 'o center blogs pulled out this one chart to highlight. It shows starting teacher pay (i.e. out of college) as a percent of the economy's average)
Look at the essay and graphs and see what you think. The trend was there before the region went to new enviro regs. You get, sometimes, what you wish forno graphs on the number of people who left the workforce or went on welfare dependency or moved off the grid with part-time and less productive work. The elite rich may be growing in the Northeast, but the economy may be declining in energy intense production.
Christopher Booker discusses the implications in: Climategate, the sequel: How we are STILL being tricked with flawed data on global warming .
"The Obama Administration," said Sheehen, "consistently fails to acknowledge the enormous industry investments and advancements in clean coal technologies, place a wholly unmerited target on our back to achieve political gains; when in reality, America's coal fleet is responsible for nearly 40 percent of our nation's electricity and just a tiny fraction of the world's carbon emissions."
Teresa Mull, managing editor of School Choice Weekly, challenges us to ask why we should expect a president to determine how children are educated when education isn't even mentioned in the Constitution. "If government were to mostly leave the education arena, people would find ways to provide high-quality educational opportunities for their kids, just as they do in nearly every other aspect of life, from washing machines to motor vehicles. If you don't want the government choosing your car for you, why would you trust it with your children's education? READ MORE
Contamination by urbanization, changes in land use, improper station sitting, and inadequately-calibrated instrument upgrades further overstate warming.
HAYDEN: Fine! If P, then Q! Q! Therefore P! Have it your way!
feels no need to look under the hood- and discourages its expert reviewers from doing so.
Greens Release a Slew of Global Warming Reports
Next Hundred Days Will Be Harder Than the First Hundred
The world began to enjoy a bonanza in wealth, technology, living standards, and life spans. In just two centuries, average world incomes rose eleven-fold, disease rates plummeted, and life expectancy more than doubled. Unfortunately, not everyone benefitted equally, and even today billions of people still live under conditions little better than what dominated in 1810. Bringing them from squalor, disease, and early death to modernity may be our most important economic, technological, and moral challenge.
The reason I bring this us is because I have always thought the way black and white TV was transitioned to color was particularly clever. They could have broadcast color with three signals of Red, Green, and Blue levels, and then black and white TVs would have to be thrown out - they wouldn't show anything meaningful with that signal. Instead, though, they mapped color with a three part system of an absolute brightness signal for each pixel, plus two color signals. If you are familiar with Photoshop, when you choose a color, you can enter the color as three numbers R-G-B for the intensity of each color or as Hue-Saturation-Brightness. While not the same as the TV system, it is similar in that it has a pixel brightness component, plus to color components. (my memory is that in the TV system, it is brightness plus two colors and the third color -- blue, I think -- is arrived at bysubtractionfrom the total brightness minus the two other colors.)
The work of Scafetta and Willson are independent fortsttning and expansion of an earlier work, which I discussed in a inlgg at the beginning of frra year (.lnk). It shows that the total solinstrlningen the earth modulated via planetrt influence on the sun, and that this variation correlates with pverkan from planets. In this work uppmrksammas specifically to Earth-Jupiter conjunction, which has a period p r 1:09. With the help of spectral analysis finds that this collaboration has a dominant impact on the overall solinstrlningen MTT satellites 1978-2012. This is natural given on Jupiter's large mass. The results are clear, but we should note that the d rr about variations within the range of 1362-1368 W / m 2 vidtoppen of jordatmosfren. The importance for climate will understand with a variation in cloud formation.
Amid reports that landowners in the states Southern Tier have reached an agreement to allow a drilling company to use propane fracking, DEC has said it now could accept and review drilling permits, even as it continues to review its proposed guidelines for water-based hydrofracking.