Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
We find that the proxies do not predict temperature significantly better than random series generated independently of temperature. Furthermore, various model specifications that perform similarly at predicting temperature produce extremely different historical backcasts. Finally, the proxies seem unable to forecast the high levels of and sharp run-up in temperature in the 1990s either in-sample or from contiguous holdout blocks, thus casting doubt on their ability to predict such phenomena if in fact they occurred several hundred years ago.
Physicist Daniel Sweger refutes thecatastrophicAGW hypothesis in his paper The Climate Engine , showing that CO2 has a negligible effect upon climate and that water vapor acts as a negative feedback to global warming. Dr. Sweger uses data from 3 locales to show an inverse relationship between humidity and temperature. He notes,
On August 24 the Australian BoM had pretty much no idea that any unusual wetness was headed their way. Toss a coin, 50:50, yes or no. Spring 2010 was going to be average, except in SW Western Australia where they claimed a wetter than normal spring is favoured. What follows were 100 year floods, or at least above average rain to nearly every part of the nation bar the part that was supposed to be getting more rainfall. In the chart below, all shades of blue got above average rainfall. The dark blue? Thats the highest rainfall on record .
on Monday, September 22nd, 2014 at 5:33 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.
The strong effect of cloud processes on climate model sensitivities to greenhouse gases was emphasized further through a now-classic set of General Circulation Model (GCM) experiments, carried out by Senior and Mitchell (1993). They produced global average surface temperature changes (due to doubled atmospheric CO2 concentration) ranging from 1.9C to 5.4C, simply by altering the way that cloud radiative properties were treated in the model. It is somewhat unsettling that the results of a complex climate model can be so drastically altered by substituting one reasonable cloud parameterization for another, thereby approximately replicating the overall intermodel range of sensitivities.
Climate Variance No Crisis, Says Senate Committee Chair
During the frantic final two days of negotiations at Copenhagen over the weekend, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton set a clever trap for Chinese premier, Wen Jiabao. Having just announced that the US would establish and contribute to a $100bn international fund by 2020 to help poor nations cope with the challenge of climate change, they added a non-negotiable proviso: all major nations would first be required to commit their emissions reduction to a binding agreement and submit these reductions to "transparent verification".
Political activist David Suzuki on a cross-country tour urging Canadians and politicians to drastically reduce greenhouse gas emissions may want to look in his own backyard before lecturing Canadians on how theyre destroying the Earth. With all the alternative-energy modes of transportation out there, Suzuki and his entourage are crossing Canada in a sprawling, rock-star-style diesel-burning tour bus, emitting more greenhouse gases during his 30-day tour than many of us do in a year .
5) Isnt the Melting of Arctic Sea Ice Evidence of Warming? Warming, yesmanmade warming, no. Arctic sea ice naturally melts back every summer, but that meltback was observed to reach a peak in 2007. But we have relatively accurate, satellite-based measurements of Arctic (and Antarctic) sea ice only since 1979. It is entirely possible that late summer Arctic Sea ice cover was just as low in the 1920s or 1930s, a period when Arctic thermometer data suggests it was just as warm. Unfortunately, there is no way to know, because we did not have satellites back then. Interestingly, Antarctic sea ice has been growing nearly as fast as Arctic ice has been melting over the last 30+ years.
In his May 11 article , Schmidt sneered at this insta-reconstruction and stated that he could guarantee that Briffas eventual reconstruction would have different results than my emulation:
The reality as shown by the numbers is far different. Coal, oil, and natural gas continue to supply about 87 percent of all global energy because those sources are able to provide the vast amounts of energy the world needs at prices consumers can afford. And for developing countries in particular, coal remains the fuel of choice because it is cheap and abundant, deposits are geographically widespread, and its price is not influenced by an OPEC-style cartel.
The authors are Mayewski, Kirk A. Maasch, Eric Meyerson, Sharon Sneed, Susan Kaspari, Daniel Dixon, and Erich Osterberg, all from UMaine; Yping Yan of the China Meterological Association; Shichang Kang of UMaine and the Chinese Academy of Sciences; and Vin Morgan, Tas van Ommen and Mark Curran of the Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems CRC in Tasmania.
Conservatives have a tendency to agree with the first proposition, while progressives have a tendency to agree with the second. But for progressives there is a second, pragmatic question to answer: Should necessityin the form of voter opinion and economic factorssignificantly constrain the pursuit of justice? Progressives differ among themselves on this question, and it is this difference that forms the heart of the battle between the "moderates" and "liberals" within the Democratic party.
The bottom line is that humans do influence climate, but the issue is hardly as black and white as many special interest groups claim and assertions about "scientific consensus' are greatly overblown. While Governor Perry may have used political hyperbole in stating his position, he is right in being skeptical about claims of a climate disaster.
The IPCC believes that water vapor increases with temperature, acting as a positive feedback, further increasing temperature. But this is not happening. Global weather balloon data shows that water vapor has been decreasing over time, not increasing.
Heat waves like those that have scorched Europe and the United States in recent weeks are becoming more frequent because of global warming, say scientists who have studied decades of weather records and computer models of past, present and future climate.
Two distinctly different forms of tropical Pacific Ocean warming are shown to have substantially different impacts on the frequency and tracks of North Atlantic tropical cyclones. The eastern Pacific warming (EPW) is identical to that of the conventional El Nio, whereas the central Pacific warming (CPW) has maximum temperature anomalies located near the dateline. In contrast to EPW events, CPW episodes are associated with a greater-than-average frequency and increasing landfall potential along the Gulf of Mexico coast and Central America. Differences are shown to be associated with the modulation of vertical wind shear in the main development region forced by differential teleconnection patterns emanating from the Pacific. The CPW is more predictable than the EPW, potentially increasing the predictability of cyclones on seasonal time scales.
makes no sense to cripple a struggling economy in order to prevent damage that
on Friday, October 1st, 2010 at 12:00 am and is filed under Uncategorized.
It seems clear that the first mutant born blond and somewhere in central Sweden and southern Finland. Among the curiosities': Galicia (northwest of the Iberian Peninsula) where we see that the Celts there really were (as in Britain, in Wales, in the southwest English); the sharp jump between Lombardy and Veneto (in spite of the fancies of the League's propaganda); and Puglia, more mysteriously blonde of almost all the rest of the Peninsula.
Tisdale: The Warming of the Global Oceans Are Manmade Greenhouse Gases Important or Impotent?
The problem is, reports like those from ACIA and WWF have one intended conclusion: Climate change is bad (especially for polar bears). Thus, any observed associations between polar bears and climate change are typically ignored if they dont show the intended patterns. That is precisely the case in this instance.
Comment: RIA Novosti, August 25, 2006: Khabibullo Abdusamatov said he and his colleagues had concluded that a period of global cooling similar to one seen in the late 17th century when canals froze in the Netherlands and people had to leave their dwellings in Greenland could start in 2012-2105 and reach its peak in 2055-2060.He said he believed the future climate change would have very serious consequences and that authorities should start preparing for them today.
The Washington Post Sunday edition devotes a page to the discussion of what impact the current cold snap and immense amount of snow (a record in the nation's capital) has and should have on the global warming debate generally and legislation specifically. Most of the space goes to the liberal but often thoughtful Dana Milbank, with snippets to others.
Brannon, I., 2004-2005, What is a life worth? Regulation , Winter, 61-63,
I??ve commented before on the lack of independence between authors in the supposedly "independent" multiproxy studies: Mann et al , Jones et al , Mann and Jones , Crowley and Lowery , Briffa et al . I??ve mentioned in passing that the proxies themselves are not independent, but not provided lists to show the extent of overlap. I??ve provided this information below for a few of the Hockey Team Studies. MORE
All the climate models consistently predict a hot-spot in the upper troposphere which is just as consistently missing in real-world observations. This shows the lack of skill of the models and allows us to dismiss them as reliable indicators of future climate.
This article originally appeared in the Washington Times on April 9, 2010.
However a headline of 0.73% of climate scientists think that humans are affecting the climate doesnt quite have the same ring as 97% does it? This CNN posting was typical of the Press coverage at the time:
And while there is a drought in Russia, Canada has problems from too much water:
If f is net-negative, sensitivity falls still further. Monckton of Brenchley, 2015 (click Most Read Articles at www.scibull.com ) suggest that the thermostasis of the climate over the past 810,000 years and the incompatibility of high net-positive feedback with the Bode system-gain relation indicate a net-negative feedback sum on the interval 0.64 W m 2 K 1 . In that event, applying Eq. (1) at the surface gives climate sensitivity on the interval 0.7 K.
By Bailey, et al, The Global Food Security programme, UK, February, 2015
Kyoto's Goal = Kick the U.S.
Finally, global sea ice area is close to 1 million sq km above the 1979-2008 mean. It is indeed remarkable just how normal global sea ice has been throughout this year, bobbing up and down around the mean.
Hurricane strength is said to be increasing. This can likely be attributed to increasing satellite coverage and resolution, which tends over time to more accurately capture the hours when a storm is at maximum strength. A study that corrects for storm detection ability over time (Vecchi and Knutson 2011) finds no trend in Atlantic hurricanes over the period of 1878 to 2008. Studies of landfall hurricanes (Balling and Cerveny 2003) also show no trend. The last cat 3+ landfall hurricanes to hit (i.e., with the hurricane eye) the continental US were in 2005
the important thing is to make sure they?re loosing the PR battle. That?s what
Looking at the currencies, we see the Euro Double Short rising. Earlier we saw that the Euro Double Short tends to move in opposition to gold (at least recently). IMHO, some large traders or hedge funds are moving out of gold and Euros and into something else. It is also likely that sales of the GLD ETF are putting downward pressure on gold prices as well.
THE worlds peak scientific body on climate change will almost inevitably make an increase in its predictions of sea-level rises due to global warming in its next landmark report in 2014, the vice-chair of the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says.
And if you look at a 30-hour window, Hawaii experienced a whopping 45,000 lightning strikes. Once again, residents were out with cameras and smart phones.
"Absent such willingness on the part of the EU, we will be compelled to take appropriate action," Mrs Clinton said. The EU had become "increasingly isolated" on the issue, she said.
According to the computer simulations of climate, three major features of the greenhouse fingerprint are:
the urbanization effect has been removed as well as possible by statistical
By Paul C. Chip Knappenberger and Patrick J. Michaels, Cato, Aug 12, 2015
In January 2015, I was in Kampala's Mulago Hospital caring for my friend and mentor, Cyril Boynes (photo), who was dying from a stroke and kidney failure. The doctors and nurses tried to save him, but they had old, broken equipment and constantly battled electricity failures. Many times, the power went out, the lights and equipment stopped working, and people died before the electricity came back on.
But the many pro-German Progressives were appalled when Woodrow Wilson led America into World War I and by Wilson's brutal suppression of civil liberties.
Pocklington raised serious questions about Dr. Wallace Broecker's "conveyor belt" theory. Broecker projects that global warming would increase rainfall and river water discharge into the North Atlantic. This would lower the density of oceanic surface water in the North Atlantic. This water would not sink, and so would not "pull" warm surface water from the Equator up towards Europe. The paradoxical result: global warming would plunge Europe into another Ice Age!
The purple line indicates is my uncertainty in the best curve that describes the data. It does not yet describe the noise or variability not explained by the trend. Even the most naive person can see there is a lot of noise around the best fit trend. I estimate the noise around my fit from the residuals from the straight line and get: 16.2 units. I added these to the uncertainty in the trend (i.e. the purple lines) and show the bounds for my naively estimated uncertainty with a dashed orange trace. When gauging what might happen in the future, I expect that, more likely that not, the future values will fall within the dashed orange lines rather than splat on the brown crosses.
"The ban comes after 16 students having been hospitalized with at least half of dozen involving the drink known by the nicknames "liquid cocaine" and "blackout in a can," reports CBS 2 HD's Kathryn Brown."
As was only too predictable, the overall theme of Mr Huhne's message was that "climate change is the greatest global challenge we face'.
As you can see, there has been an unprecedented increase in visits recently. According to my PCA analysis, and by checking the tea-leaves at the bottom of my cup, I have been able to determine that this is due to a strong upsurge in scepticism regarding the Anthropogenic Global Warming Hype-othesis. The way this correlates with the number of Christmas presents bought over the same period is strong evidence that Santa Claus exists and hasnt sunk through rotten ice after all, despite David Suzukis best efforts to remodel himself as the Grinch who stole Christmas by scaring children into thinking otherwise.
If American fixation on Central Asia is questionable, European fixation on the Palestinian question as the panacea of the Greater Middle East is downright irrational. As Edward Luttwak pointed out recently: "Yes, it would be nice if Israelis and Palestinians could settle their differences, but it would do little or nothing to calm the other conflicts in the Middle East from Algeria to Iraq, or to stop Muslim-Hindu violence in Kashmir, Muslim-Christian violence in Indonesia and the Philippines, Muslim-Buddhist violence in Thailand, Muslim-animist violence in Sudan, Muslim-Igbo violence in Nigeria, Muslim-Moscovite violence in Chechnya, or the different varieties of inter-Muslim violence."
I note that weve seen the pattern of periodic climate catastrophes many times in the ancient records, so this is just more of the same old natural cycles and periodic Bond Event type collapses. That the populations moved north and north west is telling and suggestive of who these folks were, given that we know who shows up later in the northwest from there. In particular, there is the 5.9 kiloyear event that would have been just about the right timing:
Poland is racing to develop shale gas, using hydraulic fracturing methods developed by American companies to unlock trillions of cubic feet of methane for its homes and factories. Exploratory drilling is also underway, or about to begin, in Britain, Germany and other countries, as engineers evaluate the extent and economics of developing their own vast shale gas deposits.
Heartland's Horace Cooper on The O'Reilly Factor
Adding to the reasons the RFS deserves an F on its report card, ethanol gets 30% less mileage than gasoline, so motorists pay the same or more per tank but can drive fewer miles. It collects water, gunks up fuel lines, corrodes engine parts, and wreaks havoc on lawn mowers and other small engines.
So glacier retreat is a symptom of Global Warming, unless the glacier is advancing, then THAT is a symptom of Global Warming.
Additionally, the researchers found that sunlight scattered by clouds the reason why beachgoers can get sunburned on overcast days is an important component of cloud contributions to the earth's energy balance. Capturing such contributions will increase the accuracy of climate models, the team from the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Laboratory reported in Geophysical Research Letters earlier this month.
on Monday, January 11th, 2010 at 1:18 am and is filed under News.
* Historic vulnerability to episodes of drought, including two years with zero precipitation 1870-71.
positioned to take advantage of alternative energy manufacturing
Some 30 states will have to slash their power plant CO2 emissions by more than 32% and at least 12 will have to implement 40-48% reductions. That is a tall order, since all those states now get 50-96% of their electricity from coal, and all of them depend on coal plus natural gas for nearly all their electric power. Imposing that transition and a conversion to 20% or more expensive and unreliable wind and solar energy by 2030 will be disastrous. It will bankrupt families, businesses, industries, communities and even states.
What complicates policymaking even further is that what motivates public perceptions and thus decision makers the most are weather events. Hurricane Sandy. A snowy winter. We end up blaming these on the only thing we thing we think we understand increasing CO2 should cause some change, so it must be responsible for all of the change we see.
During the past few hours (Saturday AM), a warm front has passed through our area (sorry skiers), bringin warm air and a shift to westerly flow. To illustrate this, here is the forecast heights, winds, and temperatures (shaded) at 850 hPa (about 5000 ft) for 4 PM Saturday (today). The wind are parallel to the height lines and the closer the lines are together, the stronger the winds. What you see is very strong westerly flow surging into our area, with red colors indicate very warm air. You can get strong Puget Sound rain shadow with such a pattern, as well as heavy rain on the western sides of the coastal mountains and the Cascades.
Second, because of the models are biased toward the Northern Hemisphere in an attempt to recreate the higher warming rates there, the climate models almost triple the observed warming rate of the surfaces of the Southern Hemisphere oceans. See Figure 3.
So, this explains why the People's Climate March was dominated by crazies and political leftists. The mainstream media mostly avoided coverage of the event. Maybe they realized how embarrassing the march would be for the more rational elements of the environmental movement.
Without transparency, the agency is free to conform science to its own agency and force out anyone who dares to disagree, Ebell said.
They are the most widely distributed sea turtle. They swim from 50 degrees south to 50 degrees north. Trying to regulate their interactions with fisheries out in international waters is really difficult.
By the way, many states have broken workers comp. To give you a hint at the problems, the number of injuries per hour worked has fallen for decades, but the workers comp costs per hour worked still keep going up. The reason is that the cost to treat a given injured worker has risen at more than twice the overall rate of inflation for health care. But we will delve into this in a future post.
However, the science is not done because we do not have reliable or regional predictions of climate.
The only way Ruiz-Barradas et al could have been clearer would have been to state point blank that climate climate models will only have value if and when they can ever simulate the decadal and multidecadal characteristics of natural ocean processes. Ruiz-Barradas et al (2013) then describe the many problems with climate model simulations of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. And the paper ends with (my boldface):
The figure shows sea level falling through the Maunder Minimum due to the lack of sunspots and then fluctuating in a band about 60 mm wide before increasing rapidly from 1934. It then shows sea level peaking in 2003 before declining 40 mm to 2040.
Nuccitelli may like to look at the second-order draft of the IPCCs 2013 Fifth Assessment Report, to which I have added the trend-line through the real-world observed temperature change since 1990:
Here is his short essay on why originalism is not in effect in con lawjudges do what they damn well please and then dress it up with excuses and tortured analysis.
So Im noticing that the one that I think is the one in question has some things that actually are a bit problematic. Was the part where the little girl shot at Sandy Hook who is then shown in a photo op with the President really an accidental exposure of the conspiracy / fraud? Or just some other blond kid and a photoshopped dress? No way to know without a full on forensic analysis and access to the original materials. Was the part where the Dad comes in laughing then enters character of sadness and concern prior to his shot evidence of an actor entering character; or just a person having a momentary happy emotion at being in the presence of important people and being picked to be on the news, reentering reality and letting his loss overtake him again?
The reason to be verbose in writing out the probability conditions is that it puts the matter starkly. It forces you, unlike the old ways of frequentisim and subjective Bayesianism, to specify as completely as possible the circumstances that form your estimate. Since all probability is conditional, it should always be written as such so that it is always seen as such. This is necessary because it is not just the probability from equation #3 that is important, equation #4 is, too. If you are the doctor, you do notyou should notfocus solely on probability #3 because what you really want is this:
States Should Defy Unlawful EPA Carbon Dioxide Rules
Intrigued by this oddity, I looked at the nearest rural station, which is Matanuska. It is only about 35 miles (60 km) from Anchorage, as shown in Figure 2.
Now, I want to discuss another scholarly issue that is related to groups: group selection. It's the idea that natural selection applies to groups and societies as well. In particular, societies composed of members who are willing to sacrifice themselves in ways that benefit the society prevail because of analogous rules as the natural selection that is routinely applied to individuals or genes. In an Edge.org article called
This is not arcane knowledge for the select priesthood, this is science and we can read scientific papers and apply quality judgements to them, whether we be specialists or not.
"Rosenberg said the state has already seen how climate change is manifesting itself in the state with stronger storms, extreme temperatures, and a changing environment.'
book buzz as well as controversy the cyberwarfare used to sabotage Iran's uranium enrichment centrifuges are the fruits of this method.