Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
JC comment: The first sentence of the abstract really caught my attention: Given that over the course of the next 1030 years the magnitude of natural decadal variations may rival that of anthropogenically forced climate change on regional scales. . . I dont recall the climate establishment giving this one before. The implications of this is that the warming between 1970 or 1980 to 2000 should be operating under the same givens also.
Lomborgs Copenhagen Consensus wrote numbers 1, 3, 5 and 6.
cost of $1.39 million/job to install smart meters in Chattanooga, TN. (Project #51)
SUMMARY: Ridley repeats President Obama comments claiming stale arguments when defending the Environmental Protection Agencys carbon-dioxide reduction plan, which may do more harm than good. The trouble is, weve heard his stale argument before, too: that were doomed if we dont do what the environmental pressure groups tell us, and saved if we do. And it has frequently turned out to be really bad advice.
In the past, La Nina has been associated with a greater than average number of North Atlantic hurricanes and La Nina seems to be changing its structure as well, said Webster. Were vitally interested in understanding why El Nio-La Nia has changed. To determine this we need to run a series of numerical experiments with climate models.
In 2011 the Congressional Research Service reported that America's reserves of coal are unsurpassed, accounting for more than 28% of the world's coal. It estimated that U.S. recoverable coal reserves were approximately 262 billion tonsnot including massive, but difficult to access, Alaskan reserves.
Granted, McCain could run again in 2012. But he would be 76, which makes another campaign less likely. And that leads to these questions: Who emerges as the party's standard-bearer, and what will become the new standard for the GOP? Does the party first have to concern itself with a redefined message and then worry about finding an eloquent spokesperson, or is it the other way around? Or, as was the case with Reagan giving his famous speech near the end of the 1964 presidential race, is it more a function of harmonic convergence: the message and messenger finding each other?
Suddenly 93% of the Earths the third pole disappears.
The models have difficulties capturing the difference between the higher NH winter solstice peak and the lower SH winter solstice peak in the seasonal cycle of albedo, seen in the ERBE and CERES observations. This is likely due to the representation of snow and ice in the models. Large and consistent differences in absolute values between ERBE and model albedos occur at high southern latitudes during boreal summer, where almost all models under-estimate the albedo by as much as 0.1..
How global warming can worsen snowfalls, read a Boston Globe headline .
Figure 2. Changes in monthly average lower tropospheric temperature between latitudes 82 N and 82 S through August 1999, from satellite Microwave Sounding Unit (MSU) measurements. These data have been corrected for the recently reported effects of, for example, satellite orbit decay.3 The temporary warming in 1997-1998 is a natural and unusually strong El Nio event.
> >> >>Dear Mike,
Quite simply the hurricane and cyclone records demonstrate a decline in the numbers and force. The primary reason insurance losses have increased is migration of people (and therefore increase in property value) to more attractive coastal areas such as Florida in the natural hurricane path.
New EPA Regs Will Boost Oil Productionand Carbon Emissions
To avoid such ?absurd results,? the EPA in July 2010 issued a ?tailoring rule? exempting GHG emitters from PSD unless they have a potential to emit 100,000 tons per year of CO2-equivalent emissions ? a 400-fold increase over the statutory definition of ?major? source. In effect, the EPA?s solution was to amend the statute.
Source: Seminole County Environmental News Examiner
Has James Murray realized playing the Climate Change card he is letting every third world tyrant and terrorist of the hook .Is he trying to excuse every latest civil war atrocity.
conventional wisdom would go unilaterally into Pakistani territory, without the consent or cooperation of
In fact, he later admitted this bleaching had a minimal impact and his team was genuinely surprised/relieved about how quickly some of these coral colonies had recovered. In 2007, he warned temperature changes were again bleaching the reef.
"We suggest that the qualitative projections for dramatic reductions in population numbers and range are overly pessimistic given the response of polar bears, climate, and sea ice to the present," Canadian scientists wrote.
The major source of economic optimism about the costs of reducing emissions is provided by the Stern Review of the Economics of Climate Change. Sir Nicholas Stern and his team of two dozen or so professional economists produced a most impressive 700-page report that displays all the technical tools of the economics profession. It concludes that the costs of global warming between now and 2200 will be from 5% to 20% of total global economic output, whereas the costs of reducing emissions by 60% below 1990 levels by 2050 would amount to only 1% of total global economic output. Thus reducing emissions is a great deal.
Not long after I wrote the elusive post, Gavin Schmidt (current director of GISS) made a couple of curious statements in his blog post Absolute temperatures and relative anomalies at RealClimate. We discussed them in the post Interesting Post at RealClimate about Modeled Absolute Global SurfaceTemperatures . The statement by Gavin Schmidt that bears on this discussion (my boldface):
Increasingly, government policies in general (both federal and state) are anti-business. Talk about biting the hand that feeds you. Geez. And that discourages those who have the money to spare from investing it into new business, or hiring more people. They then take their business out-of-state, or out of the country. Or, they give up and retire.
Quoting the nine Australian researchers, "there is evidence to reject one model as unsuitable for making climate projections in the region, and another two models unsuitable for analysis of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ)." And they add that "many of the systematic model biases in the mean climate in CMIP3 are also present in the CMIP5 models," specifically identifying "biases in the position and orientation of the SPCZ and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, as well as the spatial pattern, variability and teleconnections of the West Pacific monsoon, and the simulation of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation." In addition, they indicate that unresolved problems also prohibit successful modeling of the region's cold tongue and the West Pacific monsoon, further adding that there are still "several regions in the world where CMIP5 models show significant differences to observed trends in temperature and mean sea level pressure."
The boys have been inculcated in Aztec and Hard Green ideology from birth. As EG members, they're dedicated to "educating" other children about "sustainability," "dangerous climate change" and "earth-friendly" renewable energy. In an era when too many babies are having babies, it's not surprising that children are indoctrinating children. Not surprising, but not beneficial either.
One mechanism that suggests a link between the Sun and recent cold winters is ???blocking??. Low solar activity causes extensive anticyclones that persist for several weeks in the Atlantic Ocean, causing the warm westerly winds to be replaced by cold, continental north-easterly winds. Depending on the position of the anticyclone, this can also lead to clear skies at night causing the land to cool even further.
Only the federal government and crony confederates could come up with a scam where we are forced to pay more to remove something that doesnt really matter, use it for something else they are trying to regulate out of existence, and then release that same bad stuff into the air where it was supposed to be dangerous.
The global warming trend since 1990, when the IPCC wrote its first report, is equivalent to below 1.4 C per century half of what the IPCC had then predicted.
Now, take the claims that there was a different shooter, like the driver. Well, the driver theory just disagrees with all the evidence I could see. An even more popular theory is the Grassy Knoll Badge Man. I watched this conspiracy video defending this meme and I just had to laugh out loud. They take a random place in the noise of a picture and argue not only that it contains a man. They can say that he had a particular haircut or hat and a uniform and some of them say that he wore glasses. Holy cow, I don't see a damn thing. It's as noisy a piece of the picture as almost any other in the area.
Over the course of his first term, Obama gradually shifted toward the non-interventionist position. A series of disasters in the Middle Eastthe chaotic aftermath of the war in Libya, the debacle that followed the removal of Hosni Mubarak in Egypt and the generally disappointing results of the Arab Springseem to have convinced the President that his "humanitarian hawk" advisors couldn't be trusted with the keys to the car. But this didn't kill his humanitarian and idealistic impulses, nor did it diminish the strength in the Democratic Party of those who believe that the promotion of democracy, morality and the rule of law should be the foundation of American foreign policy.
An ancient description of a wise man is that he is the same on the inside and the outside. That means that as he thinks, so he speaks and acts. There are other things that might be said of the wise, but this simple description comes to us now as the essence of the modern term transparency.
Stefan Rahmstorfs Sea Level Amnesia Using His Own Numbers, Sea Level Rise Actually Slowed Down 3%!
A typical carbon tax of $20 per metric ton of carbon dioxide, rising at a nominal rate of 5.6% a year, could bring in $1.2 trillion over 10 years. But a major problem with the carbon tax is that it is regressive. Because low-income people spend a larger percent of their income on energy than high-income people, a carbon tax would have to be accompanied by transferring benefits to low-income groups.
It's no small amount of cash either it can add up to between 900 and 1,450 a year. But go with Isis and you won't get it Isis will. And that isn't particularly financially efficient for you.
SMHI also issued a class 1 warning ??? meaning weather conditions that can involve some risks and disruptions ??? for Halland and Blekinge counties, two other southern regions where snowfall, windy weather and between five and 15 centimetres of snow were expected on Sunday.
Christiana Figueres of Costa Rica, the Executive Secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, followed her, declaring that "This meeting needs to take the next decisive steps in the global response to climate change."
The most interesting, and important, dynamic in American politics today is the existential struggle going on in the Republican Party between the establishment and the insurgentsor to be more accurate, between the hard-line bedrock conservatives (there are only trace elements of the old-line center-right bloc, much less moderates) and the radicals.
Over the years Germany has been bombarded by the media with dire warnings that the warming was galloping ahead like never before. Now suddenly observations and measurement data show theres been no warming even though CO2 emissions have steadily risen. The public is wondering.
Heartland's science director points out that "EPA's budget could safely be cut by 80% or more without endangering the environment or human health. Most of what EPA does today could be done better by state government agencies " I serve as an advisor to Heartland.
Astrophysicist Nir Shariv, one of Israel's top young scientists, describes the logic that led him-- and most everyone else -- to conclude that SUVs, coal plants and other things man-made cause global warming.Step One Scientists for decades have postulated that increases in carbon dioxide and other gases could lead to a greenhouse effect.Step Two As if on cue, the temperature rose over the course of the 20th century while greenhouse gases proliferated due to human activities.Step Three No other mechanism explains the warming. Without another candidate, greenhouses gases necessarily became the cause.
However, I do not believe the earths climate is dominated by strong positive feedbacks and tipping points. It is this feedback hypothesis in climate models that multiplies warming to 3-4-5 degrees or more over the next century. In climate models, the catastrophe comes from feedback, not greenhouse effects, and I think this is a bad hypothesis. Believers in catastrophic warming have an interesting problem reconciling Manns hockey stick, which points to incredible stability in temperatures, with a hypothesis of very high positive feedback, which should make temperatures skittish and volatile. I also think that the hypothesis that aerosols are masking substantial amounts of warming is weak, and appears to be more wishful thinking to bail out model builders than solid science (while there is some cooling effect, the area of effect is local and shouldnt have a substantial effect on global averages).
Gilders is making a weak attempt to neutralize skeptics. He hits imaginary ???deniers?? he can??t name and pretends that real skeptics would agree with him, even as he exposes that he is religiously irrational.
In sum, it would have been good if we had won yesterday and even better if we had gotten that fifth vote in Massachusetts (that is also likely to be the decisive vote in the health care decision tomorrow). We didnt. Petitioners will now at least ask the Supreme Court to take the case and may also seek rehearing en banc from the full panel. Absent the Supreme Court granting certiorari and reversing the panel decision, we will have broad EPA authority over GHG emissions under the CAA. If that is the case, there is nothing we can do but to continue fighting on a rule-by-rule basis with all the ammunition we have, political, legal, technical and scientific.
In modern conditions the overwhelming thermostatic influence of the two giant atmospheric heat-sinksthe oceans and outer spacedampens the already small direct warming from a doubling of CO2.
Figure 2: Symbolic diagram of the Suns influence. The Sun influences Earthly temperature by two forces, solar radiation and force X, where changes in the former lead the latter by half a full solar (Hale) cycle. The influence of force X on changes in Earthly temperatures is about 10 to 20 times the influences of changes in the solar radiation.
Environmental activists believe efforts to address the remaining uncertainties in climate change science are nothing more than a way to delay mandatory greenhouse gas emission limits by revisiting questions that have already been long ago "asked and answered," as the Natural Resources Defense Council's climate change science director recently told the Washington Post. They could hardly be more wrong. As the NRC's 2001 report said:
Calls for us to live "sustainably," use wind and solar and biofuel power, and never use fossil fuels, are a demand that we accept prolonged starvation and death in our poor countries. They mean desperate people will do horrible things to survive, even just another day.
Which brings to mind the one person who is largely missing from the bursting out of bipartisanship: President Obama. All these recent bipartisan agreements have been reached with little or no involvement by him. They were forged by knowledgeable members of Congress skillful at bridging differences with colleagues across the aisle.
EPA's punitive, fraudulent clean power plan
"German researchers have created software called X-Pire that gives images an expiration date by tagging them with an encrypted key."
Predictions of changes in bushfire 60 years hence are thus equivalent to alchemists attempts to turn lead into gold. These are National Tea-leaf Readers, and they are not only afforded nice salaries and all the accoutrements, but given space in our national news as if they had something remotely useful to say.
On the other side, citizens, like Mary Kay Barton of New York, are sending their elected federal representatives letters asking them not to support a PTC extension as proposed in EXPIRE. She sent a letter to Senator Charles Schumer (D-NY) and he sent one back to her.
East Antarctica is four times the size of west Antarctica and parts of it are cooling. The Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research report prepared for last week??s meeting of Antarctic Treaty nations in Washington noted the South Pole had shown ???significant cooling in recent decades??.
The Chinese are actually blaming the Japan for high PM 2.5 levels.
New York spends more on Medicaid than Texas and Florida combined. The state spends so much because it enrolls so many people6.2 million today, up from 2.7 million in 1995, during a period of near-stagnant population growthand because it allocates Medicaid dollars using complex reimbursement formulas that favor inpatient hospitals and nursing homesmore expensive modes of health-care delivery than outpatient clinics and home care.
EPA's three changes in enforcement policy, if consistently enforced in the future, would vastly expand the number of applications for NSR required from regulated emitters. But EPA is not content with applying its latest interpretations to future cases. Starting in 1994, EPA began a series of enforcement actions alleging that whole industries had been violating its interpretations of policy for decades. According to EPA, 70 to 80 percent of the wood products industry and 80 to 90 percent of the electric utility industry are operating in violation of NSR requirements. In 2000, one-third of all refineries received letters from EPA seeking information on plant operations, apparently in preparation for legal action against that industry.
on Friday, February 3rd, 2012 at 2:56 am and is filed under Uncategorized.
Has there been any warming since 1997 (Jonathan Leakes question)? There has been slight warming during the past 15 years. Is it cherry picking to start a trend analysis at 1998? No, not if you are looking for a long period of time where there is little or no warming, in efforts to refute Hypothesis I.
Washington, D.C., December 8, 2004 An energy policy group created and funded by left-wing foundations is scheduled today to release a report expected to call for a range of anti-energy policies designed to raise energy prices, restrict consumer choices, and expand government control over energy use.
The mayor has also obsessed about urban sprawl. However, when new developments mean high rents, high taxes and photo-op ground breakings, he has a different philosophy.
It appears to be based on another paper he has written this year, A Statistical Model for Tornado Intensity . There is already, of course, a well established system of measuring the severity of tornadoes, the Enhanced Fujita Scale, which uses damage surveys to estimate wind speeds.
"I have been brooding about the cumulative void. First we lost Milton Friedman, who died in November 2006, then William F. Buckley, Jr., in February 2008, and then on September 18, Irving Kristol. The respective giants of the libertarian, conservative, and neoconservative Right, all gone within three years. . . . We're in a battle for America's soul at a pivotal moment. But the very truth of that statementwe are indeed in a battle for America's soulmakes it a good idea to stop and think about when the American Right was truly influential. It didn't start after right-wing talk shows got big. It started in the 1960s, as Friedman, Buckley, and Kristol were hitting their stride. . . . Don't tell me we have to put up with the Glenn Becks of the world to be successful. Within living memory, the Right was successful. The Right changed the country for the betterthrough good arguments made by fine men."
Some scientists, including Dutch Nobel Prize winning atmospheric chemist Paul Crutzen, believe that altering some features of the Earth's environment would be a more cost-effective and efficient way to combat global warming. This is geoengineering.
CEI Expert Available to Comment: Adjunct Fellow Fran Smith on the outlook for a new trade agreement:
By independent I mean I am not employed in a research or academic position; Im not obligated to publish results that encourage future funding for my researchthat is, my research is not agenda-driven. Im a retiree, a pensioner. The only funding I receive is from book sales and donations at my blog.
Suitably impressed and depressed, we rolled on south to visit Matt Ridley and his family. Matt is an amazing guy, he was the Science Editor for the Economist magazine, is the author of several books, writes a blog called The Rational Optimist , and is a member of the House of Lords. He graciously had invited the Clan Eschenbach to stay for a couple of days and offered to show us around the countryside.
Another WUWT.TV video, Mike Smith, severe weather expert
There to be clarified first of all if the road of the International Tribunal would be feasible: as a future US administration will in fact never take the responsibility to establish a precedent, sending an ex-President to answer for war crimes abroad? So at most we would have to wait for it to move something in America.
Bangladesh Cyclone 02B, April 1991. Another cyclone struck the Chittagong region in Bangladesh in 1991 killing over 138,000 people and causing damage in excess of 1.5 billion dollars. The tropical cyclone devastated the coastal area southeast of Dacca with winds in excess of 130kts and a 20 foot storm surge.
The software maker advised customers on its website late on Monday to install the security software as an interim measure, buying it time to fix the bug.
The pause is now the ever greater pause . And even if global temperature sets new record highs, it will be by hundredths of a degree, well below the model-predicted increase. The pause is even more the climate-model discrepancy . 95% of Climate Models Agree: The Observations Must be Wrong , one climatologist humorously wrote.
A big part of this data tampering is implemented by making up monthly temperatures at stations where USHCNsays they have no thermometer data. The amount of fabricated data is increasing exponentially, and at current rates of fabrication 100% of the data will be fake by the year 2035 i.e. there will be no actual thermometer data used after that date. NCDC says that their software whichdoesthis, is working as expected.
Such musings have been a recurring theme in Western civilization for generations, particularly among wealthy elites. Fortunately, for centuries the consequences of back-to-nature evangelizing were restricted to a few intellectual poseurs reading some impenetrable books by some other intellectual poseurs who somehow convinced a slightly larger circle of poseurs that they had special insights on how the world should be.
To extend the analysis, I have decided to show results of hypotheses test to determine whether the IPCC best estimate for the trend in GMST during the next three century, published in the AR4, is consistent with observation for the GMST measured after the projections were made.
The age of "thought crimes" is truly here in the "land of the free."
The 2014/15 El Nio Part 7 May 2014 Update and What Should Happen Next
Pat and Chip thencompare the black part of the chart above (theportion of U.S. temperatures influenced by global temperatures) with the PDSI. They find no relationship between global temperature variations and U.S. drought conditions (graph below, left) but a significant relationship between PDSI and non-global warming factors (graph below, right).
Video: World Bank Prez says if you disagree with the climate consensus, then "you disagree with science itself'