Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Yet another winter storm!Gov. Pat McCrory declares a state of emergency.
The Clear Skies Initiative presumably would achieve these goals by using caps and emission trading, ending the costly and unpredictable permitting route required by the NSR program. For nonutility regulated emitters, not included in the Clear Skies Initiative, and for utilities pending adoption of the Initiative, the Bush administration proposes to adopt EPA's recommended NSR reforms. Note that Clear Skies would not cover particulate matter (soot), which would continue to be covered by the National Ambient Air Quality Standards Program.
Pravda Suggests A Timeless Solution To The Global Warming Scare
Two weeks ago, the Czech government decided to end all subsidies for new renewable energy projects at the end of this year. ?The reason for this law amendment is the rising financial burden for electricity consumers,? Prime Minister Jiri Rusnok said. ?It threatens the competitiveness of our industry and raises consumers? uncertainty about power prices.? In recent years, almost all EU member states also have begun the process of rolling back and cutting green subsidies.
With 80% of the worlds oil shale, our potential sources of crude are three times the size of the recoverable oil reserves of Saudi Arabia.
It doesn't appear that Grantham the investor is profiting from climate alarmism yet. "Global warming will be the most important investment issue for the foreseeable future," he writes. "But how to make money around this issue in the next few years is not yet clear to me." But Grantham the philanthropist is making big investments in climate science alarmism. And in that way he's guilty of what die-hard contrarians consider the biggest sin on the Streettalking his own book.
Existing parameterization of cloud amounts in GCMs are physically very crude. When empirical adjustments of parameters are made to achieve verisimilitude, the model may appear to be validated against the present climate. But such tuning by itself does not guarantee that the response of clouds to a change in CO2 concentration is also tuned. It must thus be emphasized that the modeling of clouds is one of the weakest links in the GCM efforts.
Climate changed in response to natural processes that are active also at present, including variations in solar activity and the galactic cosmic ray flux and ocean current oscillations.
Sounds pretty definitive, doesn't it? But wait. Astrophysicist Sallie Baliunas of the Wilson Observatory (a real scientist) argued recently in the Wall Street Journal that there is a close correlation between warming and cooling trends and the pattern of sunspot activity. Baliunas tracked this correlation back to the 18th century, pointing out that climate change models that assume carbon dioxide causes warming have failed to predict what is actually going on in the atmosphere, and indeed are contradicted (and constantly revised) by real-world measurements of temperature in the upper and lower atmosphere as well as on the earth's surface.
The final snkan for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is vergng to calcium carbonate, CaCO 3, through chemical reaction with various silicate rocks for finally through strmmande water ending up in the sea. This is a process on a time scale of millions of years. The efficiency of this process depends on the hydrological cycle which in turn frstrks temperature. P a very long time scale, one can say that atmosfrens carbon dioxide acts as a kind of thermostat, d at a high temperature, the hydrological cycle is more active and CO 2 disappears faster from the atmosphere and omvnt. A summary of these processes can be seen in Figure 3 where one berknat how long it takes for a certain multitude of carbon to vanish from the atmosphere.
Quoting the authors, their results "show convincingly that the present drought is not unique and that drought has recurred on a centennial to interdecadal timescale during the last 1500 years." What it means
Forbes continued: Its time to end the mollycoddling of wind and solar energy toys before this stupidity does irreversible damage to Australias electricity supply and costs.
Speaking of Tamino, he presented a post about the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, see his post here , and I replied to it in my post Comments on Taminos AMO Post . In another of his posts , Tamino took exception to a comment I made that climate models cannot reproduce the multidecadal variations exhibited in the temperature record, and in my response , I presented the outputs of all of the CMIP3 climate model simulations in a gif animation to show that the vast majority of the model simulations do not present the multidecadal variability that exists in the data.
In addition, the GOP-led House recently passed a bill that would prevent the EPA from using the metric in major energy rules.
Pat Michaels of the University of Virginia shows this here: www.co2andclimate.org/wca/2004/wca 17bpf.html.
Here is a succinct discussion by an emeritus prof of surgery U of Washington School of Medicine. Published by my favorite editor, Jane Orient MD, Internist and exec of the American Association of Physicians and Surgeons.
There are many problems, but a couple suffice to show pre-selection and manipulation. Solar activity increased to 2000 and volcanic forcing, presumably from volcanic dust levels, are essentially unknown. If important, why wasnt volcanic forcing in the Natural portion of the diagrams? Their claim that only models with anthropogenic forcing simulate observed patterns of warming is pre-determined by the variables and data they chose, and how model programming. If you leave out almost all natural forcing and the one you include is serious limited and misrepresented then you control the results.
Film clip #2: The Coral Reefs Off the Coast of Australia Are Being Bleached and Destroyed Due to Global Warming
For climate alarmists, climate change has become what logicians call a "non-falsifiable hypothesis." Every weather anomaly is said to be a sign of climate change. After the near-record January 1996 blizzard hit the northeastern U.S., Newsweek ran a cover story attributing the storm to climate change. A year later, when an unusually warm winter led to early snow melt and floods in the upper Midwest, Vice President Al Gore and others attributed it to climate change. And the three hurricanes that struck Florida in close succession last summer were a bonanza for the climate-change chorus, even though serious climate scientists readily admit that ascribing today's extreme weather events to global warming is scientifically insupportable. In fact, the intensity of hurricanes and cyclones has diminished slightly over the past 30 years.
In other words, it must stop trying to prove manmade carbon dioxide is the sole or primary factor in climate change and seek evidence-based answers to what drives climate change, what we might expect in the future, and how humans can better adapt to warmer, colder, wetter or drier futures.
As for the radicals in elected office or in control of party organs, consider a small sampling of comments:
JAXA AMSR-E Sea Ice Area click to enlarge
Showbiz Sandbox 112: Why Netflix Had To Raise Its Prices:
Over the course of what climate alarmists call a century of unprecedented global warming, and contrary to the implications of nearly all 2xCO 2 GCM experiments, there has been no net change in either South African rainfall variability or the mean value of the Southern African Rainfall Index.
But once we measure something in a quantum world, you obtain the same "classical" information that you obtain by a measurement in a classical world that happens to have the same number of potential outcomes (the same spectrum). You may know something or not to know something; you may extract \(n\) bits from the measurements or another number. You may use more natural units of information, nats. One may also measure continuous observables. Such measurements naively yield an infinite amount of information (because there were infinitely many potential outcomes a priori) but due to some unavoidable errors, the effective information is actually finite. All these things are true in classical physics as well as quantum mechanics.
You'd think that NHTSA, an agency whose middle name is safety, would have brought this issue to the forefront of public attention. But instead NHTSA has repeatedly claimed that CAFE has no safety effect. In a 1992 court case brought by the Competitive Enterprise Institute and Consumer Alert, a panel of federal appeals judges blasted NHTSA's position as "fudged analysis," "statistical legerdemain" and "bureaucratic mumbo-jumbo."
The economic value cited includes the total value for all tourism in the region when half of all tourists do not even visit the reef. For those who do, the reef component of the large majority is a one day, one time participation in a reef tour and the value of reef tours is similar to the value of commercial fishing. If one also considers the economic value of recreational fishing, retail fish sales and seafood meals in restaurants, the total value of fishing is closer to twice that of reef tours.
It was the same intellectual and moral quest for self-respect and pride that, beginning with a merciless moral scrutiny of the country's past and present, within a few short years hollowed out the mighty Soviet state, deprived it of legitimacy, and turned it into a burned-out shell that crumbled in August 1991. The tale of this intellectual and moral journey is an absolutely central story of the 20th century's last great revolution.
* The primary temperature records relied on by the IPCC and the EPA cover far too short a time to be a useful tool for policy making and are inadequately corrected for the urban heat island effect and other errors. One analysis of these records found errors of 1 -5 C (1.8 -9.0 F) for 1969 data in certain regions, when the claimed warming for the entire twentieth century was only 0.7 C (1.3 F); errors for records in the early century are likely even greater. Reliance on these records is thus misplaced.
At first, it was funny to read about how kittens, redheads and the Loch Ness monster were allegedly affected by climate transmogrification (CT). (The term "climate change" really doesn't cut it for true activists, does it?) Eventually even the people at Number Watch stopped keeping track of the more than 800 items on their list of things allegedly caused by CT because they were blown over by the scale of the journalistic baloney storm (BS) that fills human news bandwidth on climate.
What does a state get? A process in which the conclusion is pretty much determined from the outset. CCS arrives at "stakeholder" meetings with all the rules and voting procedures in place. They have a prepared list of dozens of options to be considered for recommendation by the governor-appointed stakeholder group. No cost-benefit analysis is provided for any of the options instead CCS supplies numbers that highlight the benefits in amount of greenhouse gases reduced, rather than their actual effect on the climate. Analysis is limited to the "cost effectiveness" of implementing the policy options (like smart growth or a renewable fuels portfolio). Meanwhile important factors such as influence on the state's economy, impacts on health and safety, and effects from increased regulation on businesses and consumers are not taken into account.
A new study of tree-ring data has concluded that not only has our climate often been noticeably hotter than today, temperatures have actually been on a falling trend for the past 2,000 years.
As Lamb identified, lack of data was and remains the most serious limitation. The situation is completely inadequate for temperature, supposedly the best measured variable. How can two major agencies HadCRUT and GISS produce such different results,
As Anthony Watts says, Ding-dong, the stick is dead. Watts provides a nut-shell explanation of long and tortured history of the notorious global warming hockey stick, and its demise:
"With an earlier start date," says the study, "the economy experiences a loss in gross domestic product beginning in 2000 as higher prices increase the prices of goods and services throughout the economy; however, the early start date smooths the transition of the economy to a longer run target." The study finds that the "projected cumulative impacts" on actual GDP between the years 2000 and 2020 is over $2.6 trillion if reductions begin in 2005 and just under $2.5 trillion under an early start scenario.
In my absence, here is an open thread for any climate and energy news today.
Unfortunately, energy consumers are not quite as happy. A report last June by investment bank UBS found that "CO2 is now the key driver of electricity prices in Continental Europe," with CO2 costs representing about 20 percent of the cost of energy. The energy companies are simply passing on the cost of the emissions permits to their customers. As the companies are allocated permits for free, this represents a significant gain to those enterprises. The World Wildlife Fund considers this an abuse of the market. UBS itself concluded that there is a significant risk of a windfall profit tax being placed on the industry. Others have suggested auctioning the permit rights rather than allocating them. For the moment, however, energy companies have been the prime beneficiaries of Kyoto and the energy consumer the prime loser.
As shown in my newstudy for the Global Warming Policy Foundation, there has been an unfortunate and bewildering array of unintended consequences that refute the ethical label for the framework:
Although the Antarctic has a lot of missing data for 1938, (hence the grey), the temperature changes in the Arctic are quite clear, with most of the region about a degree colder in 1980 compared to 1938. So lets combine the two periods.
A 3,000-year record from 52 of the worlds oldest trees shows that Californias western Sierra Nevada was droughty and often fiery from 800 to 1300, according to a new study led by University of Arizona researchers.
As for revenue-neutrality, well, color me dubious. Governments are notorious for raiding dedicated funds whenever they face revenue shortfalls. Governor Jerry Brown recently raided Californias dedicated green fund raised through its cap-and-trade system. Technically, he borrowed $500 million from Californias Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund for general revenue.
Good people everywhere need to rise up, speak out and fight back, if they still believe in individual rights, freedom of thought and expression, and honest, transparent, trustworthy, accountable government and religious institutions. Otherwise, these fundamental values will disappear and with them will go modern society and living standards, and efforts to improve the lives of billions of people who still lack the lifesaving energy and technologies so many of us take for granted.
The concept of equilibrium is a foreign one to academic climate experts.
Market adjustments can substantially attenuate initial negative impacts. Nevertheless, equilibrium climate change damages remain substantial at the global level, particularly in developing countries. Accordingly, the distributional and scale implications of climate-related damages must be addressed by adequate policy-driven mitigation and adaptation strategies
At the end of the first 100 days, it is worth asking questions like
In contrast, the environmental executive agreements adopted by President G.W. Bush were small potatoes. None entailed commitments or risks affecting the nation as a whole. Moreover, all were clearly authorized by Congress, other treaties, or the President's inherent powers as commander-in-chief or chief executive representing the United States in foreign affairs.
The 74 green lemmings in Parliament have given us certainty the certainty of capital flight and job losses.
just trying to find if weve done anything wrong. I sent one of them loads of series
There is something wrong with the math in the cost of a postage stamp comparison, which the USPS will fix by increasing the price of each stamp to $7.00.
The authors write that "according to a range of modeled scenarios, many arid and semiarid regions across the world are likely to become warmer and drier over the next century due to human-induced climate change," citing the IPCC (2007) and Bates et al . (2008). And they note, in this regard, that the information reported in the review of Lake (2003) suggests that "more frequent and longer duration droughts will potentially have detrimental impacts on aquatic species."
Figure 10 is a map that shows how the data for the additional discussions were subdivided. Basically, this was done to isolate the North Atlantic from the additional ocean basins in the Rest-Of-The-World data. And the observed Sea Surface Temperature anomalies for those two subsets are shown in Figure 11. As illustrated, the linear trend of the North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature anomalies is significantly higher than the linear trend of the South Atlantic-Indian-West Pacific subset. This higher trend in the North Atlantic data is caused by the additional mode of natural variability known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. And as we will see, the forced component of the models (the model mean) does not account for the additional variability in the North Atlantic attributable to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation.
CEI Expert Available to Comment: Policy Analyst Michelle Minton on the increasing number of people calling on Congress to reform laws on Internet gambling:
The Virgin Islands probe all but collapsed in June after Attorney General Claude E. Walker agreed to drop a subpoena issued against Exxon, a month after he said he would withdraw subpoenas of the free market Competitive Enterprise Institute. Both Exxon and the institute had fought the subpoenas.
Though as I mentioned, I don't believe in predictive modeling, that doesn't mean we can't tie up our camel. For that reason, as a third effort, I support re-directing government research and development spending away from greenhouse gas mitigation technologies and into geo-engineering, and carbon air-stripping technologies.
As previously reported here , Obama has pledged that the United States will cut emissions by 26 percent by 2025, even though the largest emitter of CO2, China, will get a free pass until 2030, and will only comply if it chooses to abide by the new rules.
Upsizing, however, would entail relaxing CAFE rather than tightening it -- a move that would be totally alien to this administration and to its environmentalist supporters. The Sierra Club, for example, claims that higher CAFE standards would be "the biggest single step to curbing global warming." In their 1992 campaign book, Bill Clinton and Al Gore recommended raising CAFE to 40 mpg by 2000 -- a level whose potential safety consequences add more than a little irony to the book's title, "Putting People First."
What would a statistician and Wharton School forescasting expert know about models? Or a lawyer about EPA's proposed regulations? Sheesh.
Last November a report by the Office of Inspector General that I requested confirmed that EPA, through its own actions, has been deliberately and systematically slowing the pace of permit evaluations for new plants in Appalachia. These findings were concerning enough that Inspector General did a follow up review and again, in February of this year, OIG found that EPA did not have a consistent, official recordkeeping system, which was exacerbating permit delays.
As for the Republican presidential candidates, most are calling for construction of an ever-higher border fence and opposing anything with a whiff of amnesty. They're attacking Rick Perry because he opposes the fence in Texasit's hard to build one along a riverand backs in-state tuition for children of illegals in state colleges and universities.
Clearly, Obama will now have a far less compliant Congress, so there is every prospect he will use the international route to achieve his objectives.
They accomplish this through a spectacular hockey stick of data tampering, which cools the past and warms the present.
In the open letter to the defense minister and the Czech government
The average temperature for each month, computed by averaging the temperature from each of 5 reliable data sources. 1 . This gives a one trend based on an average. Done this way, the uncertainty intervals on the mean trend include the uncertainty due to weather noise ; however, uncertainty due to measurement error , which arises due to lack of precision from each data source is mimized.
A new study by Canadian scientists once again debunks the notion polar bears are currently being harmed by global warming. Researchers with Canada's Lakehead University found "no evidence" polar bears are currently threatened by warming.
Link to book: The Global Warming Scam and the Climate Change Superscam
I don??t think so. The solar activity measured in sunspot number obviously correlates well with the TSI and it correlated quite well with the surface temperature anomalies throughout most of the record up until the end of the 1970s too. We can see it prima facie:
Emission Credits: The Supply & Demand Gap
Some scientists have reported that we are perhaps headed towards a mini ice age. Back in 2011 US solar physicists announced that the Sun appears to be headed into a lengthy spell of low activity, which could mean that the Earthfar from facing a global warming problemis actually headed into a mini ice age. The announcement came form scientists at the US National Solar Observatory (NSO) and the US Air Force Research Laboratory. Three different analyses of the Suns recent behavior all indicated that a period of unusually low solar activity may be about to begin. (5)
Clermont in central Queensland had record-low temperatures on Friday, July 11, but broke records again on Saturday morning July 12, with the temperature dropping down to minus 4.5 degrees Celsius.
The map is misleading because each station dot is proportionally about 200km across but still the change is dramatic. Gaps are so great they make analysis meaningless, but the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) does it anyway. As DAleo and Watts explain,
This new data clearly reveals that both the Medieval Warming and the Little Ice Age cooling were significant climate events across the entire northern portion of the globe. In the majority of regions, modern temperatures are yet to reach the level and extent of the MWP.
Ray Evans is Secretary of the Lavoisier Group, which was formed in Australia in 2000 to promote debate on the science of climate change.
America has barely begun to tap its vast shale gas and conventional natural gas deposits. It has not yet touched its methane hydrates. Together, these deposits will likely last a century or more. In addition, other countries are racing to develop their own conventional, shale and hydrate deposits while still others will eventually recognize the folly of keeping their own deposits off limits. All this will gradually reduce demand for US natural gas exports, slow and prolong extraction, and keep gas prices low.
The EPA projected that America's Climate Security Act could, by 2050, lower GDP by up to 6.9 percent, increase average gasoline prices by $1.40 per gallon, and raise electricity prices by 26 percent.
Bottom line: Until climate models can simulate the observed warming spatial patterns, and the observed multidecadal variations in sea surface temperatures, they have no hope of being able to simulate climate on continental land masses.
Despite billions being spent on research to prove that the 'CO2-causes-global-warming' hypothesis has merit, the actual global temperature observations, as shown in the adjacent chart, confirm the spectacular prediction failure of CO2-based climate models.