Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Recent research from Robert Davis and Wendy Novicoff of the University of Virginia looked at whether urban mortality related to higher temperatures than normal has increased or decreased over recent years. In many cities across the US, they found that human mortality during days with extremely high apparent temperatures has declined significantly since the 1960s, probably as a result of sociological, technological, and physiological adaptation. This finding directly contradicts the prediction of the National Assessment on Climate Change that mortality rates in cities such as New York and Minnesota could more than double as a result of the projected increased incidence of extreme heat waves.
That preoccupation with risk is expressed differently in arguments about climate and terror, but the logic is the same, and their nexus is interesting. Since the claims in currency are so contested, it would be prudent to understand the desire to naturalise complex things such as war than to take the claims at face value.
Pielke Sr response: This is also erroneous. You made no mention of the inappropriate shadow version of the Chapter that I was Convening Lead Author on that you were aware of, nor that it was not the publication of the papers, but the repeated cherry-picking of information from the draft Report that were prematurely presented to the media and to the Senate Committee that were the issue. What can explain this fictional reporting?
scale. But the ?big climate picture? includes ocean feedbacks on all time
In light of these several observations, it would appear that if humanity's many physical and chemical disturbances of the planet's coral reef environments were either eliminated or significantly reduced, there would be much less warming-induced destruction of corals throughout the world; for if a 50% reduction in seawater Cu concentration provides a 3.5??C increase in the degree of heat that can be tolerated by coral larvae, and if a 50-80% reduction in dissolved inorganic nitrogen runoff provides 2??C more relief, imagine what benefits similar reductions in man's many other assaults upon earth's coral reef environments might bring.
But the pain from the new EPA rules won't be evenly distributed across America. Far from it. The coal producing states like West Virginia and Wyoming will see massive job losses and increases in electric utility costs. The nationwide costs will be about $100 billion a year eventually or a reduction in GDP by about one-half percentage point, the Heritage Foundation finds. But for heavily impacted states Republican areas in the Midwest, South and mountain states the costs will reach about $1,200 a year to average families. Mr. Obama's policies that have had such a crushing effect on middle-income family finances are about to get a whole lot worse.
The disclosure will lead to further questions over possible conflict of interest against Dr Pachauri, whose position as chairman of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is already under threat over errors in its reports.
on Monday, May 24th, 2010 at 2:24 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.
MP: Let's keep those spectacularly wrong predictions from the first Earth Day 1970 in mind when we're bombarded tomorrow with media hype, and claims like this from the 2015 Earth Day website:
I'm up to my ears in travel and work until Monday - posting will be slow as a result. Get over to the blogroll and expand your blogging horizons. (Or get off the computer and expand your horizons - even better!)
JFK magic bullet: irrationality of conspiracy theories
Poor Andy gets told by Marty Hoerling and John Wallace that Coumou and Rahmstorf are basically FOS.
"Let me quote from the Salon review to give you an idea."
We are dealing with environmental groups, the IPCC, and government leaders like Obama for whom the telling of huge and blatantly obvious lies about global warming is nothing compared to the billions generated by the hoax for the universities and scientists that line their pockets supporting it and industries that benefit by offering ways to capture carbon dioxide or conserve energy by first banning incandescent light bulbs.
3. Accelerating , rapid and "runaway, tipping point" global warming does not exist, nor is it even remotely and/or feasibly "imminent"
This is simply an outright lie. Inherent in natural events such as hurricanes and typhoons, blizzards, tornadoes, floods, droughts, and forest fires is the damage they cause, but FOE asserted that "People in vulnerable communities are already struggling with dirty air, unsafe housing, and increased cancer rates. So when extreme weather hits, its impacts are even more devastating."
It's a cooling trend equaling 1.3F per century. And not a single government sponsored climate expert, nor wildly expensive climate model, predicted such.
Finally, the broker will ask you for your workers comp. experience "mod", short for modifier. If you do not know what an experience mod is, you soon will. A company called NCCI collects premium and loss data from most all the carriers for most businesses. If they are tracking your company, you should get a report like this one from them (OK, the NCCI site has a web site design that won't let me link to the actual page - grrrr. Click the link above, and find "how to understand your experience rating worksheet" under the learning center heading.).
There has been a 43% increase in the best estimate of total anthropogenic radiative forcing between that for 2005 per AR4, and that for 2011 per AR5. Yet global surface temperatures remain almost unchanged: 2012 was marginally cooler than 2007, whilst the trailing decadal mean temperature was marginally higher. The same 0.8C warming now has to be spread over a 43% greater change in total forcing, natural forcing being small in 2005 and little different in 2012. The warming per unit of forcing is a measure of climate sensitivity, in this case a measure close to TCR, since most of the increase in forcing has occurred over the last 6070 years. It follows that TCR estimates that reflect the best estimates of forcing in AR5 should be of the order of 30% lower than those that reflected AR4 forcing estimates.
Climate Minister Combet still innocent of knowledge
During autumn1958, The New York Times predicted both an ice-free Arctic and a new ice age.
Warmists didn't get everything wrong: CO 2 levels are indeed greater than they were just a few decades ago, thanks to China's industrialization. Yet global temperatures have not increased in 17 years; actually, they are trending down, undercutting the warmists' key argument. The seeming contradiction can be explained by, well, looking up.
1. Per the empirical satellite data, human CO2 emissions are not causing an accelerating sea level rise that is swamping Pacific Ocean islands, and thus causing a vast migration of climate change refugees (another hysterical IPCC prediction spread by climate liars).
OMG Greenlands ice sheets are melting fast
32 P. Reiter, Global Warming and vector-borne disease in temperate regions and at high altitude, Lancet 351, 839 (1998).
Obama signed memoranda designed to prod the struggling US auto industry to design new fuel-efficient vehicles to lessen US dependence on energy sources which he said bankroll dictators, and to spur the US economy .
As mentioned above, the most useful place to start when considering the nonmonetary aspects of prosperity is with measures that already exist but which have not previously been brought together. The Prosperity Index, generated by the Legatum Institute, has for the past three years attempted to provide a comprehensive measurement of prosperity using a combination of variables based on economic wealth and quality of life. While it is not as ambitious in its long-term measurement objectives as the Sarkozy commission, the Prosperity Index more usefully encapsulates what can be measured from within the business and social realms.
The Turbines produce a third of their rated output and require space and lines and a back up gas or coal fired plant. That makes sense? And at 5 acres per the space required for equivalent output with 2 Megawatt fans is 2500 acres. Think about that, and then back up generator could be on line but is still required to maintain a stable source. Is that sounding stupid enough?
At the end of the Eemian Period, for example, the climate descended from a period of warmth as warm as, or even warmer than today??s, into full-blown glaciation in less than 20 years.
There are people who believe in horoscopes, people who believe spaceships come here; that is not problematic. But it becomes problematic if it becomes a power structure that destroys our society because that is really what's going on. If you cannot use science anymore because of these crazy beliefs, then there is a problem; I would even say there is a war going on that is much more serious than we were thinking before.
I knew it was bad, but interviewing two people now constitutes a ???thorough investigation?? of alleged serious scientific malfeasance? The investigators didn??t even understand that the famous ??? Mike??s Nature trick ???was a clever way of hiding adverse data , a big scientific no-no. They didn??t interview anyone who actually understood the issues.
Take four issues where our free and open political system allows continuing, robust domestic debates: global warming, abortion, gun control and the death penalty.
"Luis Picado's mother remembers the day her son thought he had won the lottery. He came home to their tin-roofed cinder-block house in a Managua, Nicaragua, slum and said he'd found a way to escape poverty and start a new life in the United States."
It just happened that the Nobel Prize - the medal plated with 24-carat gold - has been missing for weeks.
In contrast, a U.S. Senate report listed 1,000 international climate scientists who dissent from "man-made climate catastrophe" claims. More than 31,000 American scientists signed a statement saying they disagree with alarmist predictions. And a 2013 survey found 48% of American meteorologists do not believe humans are causing dangerous climate change.
18 See IPCC 1995, p. 6.
Dr. Hans Penner is member of the advisory board of CFACT Europe.
GHGT effect 15C (-18C) = 33C is wrong. Correct value is 15.0C 15.0C = 0C. Nothing to it. Hansen, Science , 28Aug1981, incorrectly assumed Earth radiates as a black body with emissivity = 1.0, took satellite readings of its average intensity, 239 w/m 2 of surface, and deduced from Boltzmann equation, K = 100(P/5.67e) 0.25 , it radiates at -18C. K = 100(239/5.67(1.0)) 0.25 = 254.8K 273.1 = -18.3C.
Features of GHG Controls that Impede Collective Action
The Young Guns and their allies, including McConnell, also blew up a series of governing norms. While the debt ceiling had been a political football for both parties for decades, leaders were always careful not to push too far, to flirt with default. Republicans in both the House and the Senate, starting in 2010 and continuing through 2014, explicitly held the debt ceiling and US credibility hostage to a series of ideological demands, coming dangerously close to going over the edge.
Answer: Australians emit 1.5% of the CO2 emitted by humans. So Australians, over the years, emitted at most about 1.5% of the 110 ppm increase in CO2 since pre-industrial times (that increase is is probably due to ocean warming, due to whatever has been heating the world since 1680), or 0.0000017% of the air (1.7 ppm).
Conclusions hinge on the choice of statistic and where you set the benchmark. MM05 obtain a critical value for RE of greater than 0.5 using random red-noise data in a replication of the procedure used in MBH98. Non-existent statistical skill of the models is one of the main arguments in MM05 against the reconstruction method in MBH98.
The divergences shown in brown in Figure 8 are caused when sea surface temperatures of the Rest-of-the-World fail to cool in response to the La Nia. Basically, they dont cool because of the warm water thats left over after the El Nio.
In spite of all of the purportedly unprecedented negative influences arrayed against them over the past decade and a half, GBR corals appear to have held their own, maintaining a stable presence over the totality of their 1300-km linear expanse. References
According to a new paper based upon obedient computer models, global warming could result in an increase in the frequency of wildfires. However, data from both the US and Canada show that the number of wildfires has declined over the past 40-50 years of global warming, and that the number of wildfires was higher during the global cooling scare of the 1970's.
A similar dynamic is working on the purely domestic level, which is the third moving part of this story. Prospects for the passage of a "cap and trade" GHG emissions reduction plan in Congress do not look good at the moment, again because too many Democrats in the heartland states that would be hit hard by sharply higher energy costs are now hesitating or opposing the idea. But Obama's budget plan has penciled in more than $600 billion in revenue from an emissions trading bill in his budget plan, and hence the idea of attaching emissions trading to the budget reconciliation process, thus allowing it to be passed by a simple majority vote of Congress and making it immune to the Senate filibuster. Above all, it is an attempt to end-run the deliberative process of the legislative branch. An emissions trading bill simply cannot survive the light of a sustained, open debate in Congress.
Britain has ended liberalised power market pricing, in a broad strategy announcement that poses questions over how qualified government ministers are to choose between energy technologies and to set prices.
Whatever may or may not be happening with the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Current (AMOC), one thing that you can take to the bank (or insane asylum, as appropriate): contaminated Finnish lake sediments, strip bark bristlecone pines and the hundreds of nondescript Mann 2008-9 tree ring series do not contain any useful information on the past history of the AMOC.
I just discovered that this blog has been nominated for an award in the annual Canadian Blog Awards. Thanks to the eagle eyed Mayor for spotting the nomination.
As highlighted in IPCC AR4 (2007), already a moderate warming produces negative consequences: increasing number of people exposed to water stresses, extinction of species and ecosystems, decrease in cereal productivity at low latitudes, land loss due to sea level rise in coastal areas, increase in mortality and morbidity associated to change in the incidence of vector borne diseases or to increased frequency and intensity of heath waves; infrastructural disruption and mortality increase due to more frequent and intense extreme weather event occurrence.
The three researchers say their results showed there was "no change in long-term monthly, seasonal and annual rainfall and frequency of rain days" and that "there is no significant trend in the annual and seasonal rainfall totals." This being the case, they also say "it can be concluded that there is no climate change observed over Combatore."
Now with global temperatures in an extended hiatus, the IPCC has reversed course and told us that such short-term periods are actually irrelevant to its arguments:
As you try to wrap your mind around that explanation, just think about the way the Earth goes through regular seasons as well as predictable cycles of warming and cooling. It has done this now for some 4.5 billion years.
If the deep heat explanation for the Pause were correct (and it is merely one among dozens that have been offered), the complex models have failed to account for it correctly: otherwise, the growing discrepancy between the predicted and observed atmospheric warming rates would not have become as significant as it has.
Should the world face a "clash of civilizations," America may find itself with weaker allies. It may then be forced to play a greater role in defending and promoting the liberal, pluralist beliefs and values of Western civilization. We may have to do more, not because we want to, but because we have to.
While the White House economic report does not address those criticisms directly, it says greater domestic energy production, the use of wind and solar power and the reduction in oil consumption have had substantial economic and energy security benefits, and they are helping to reduce carbon emissions in the energy sector and thereby tackle the challenge posed by climate change.
I am not brave enough to go to fight to the East of Ukraine in the new conflict created as a product of the desperate American imperialism against the self-declared Ukrainian government. Not only I lack the courage. Such a decision would be meaningless because this conflict is about something completely different than the search and application of the human rights and freedoms i.e. the values "for which" the U.S. has already devastated so many countries in the world.
How unprecedented? Well, so far as we can tell, since 1978, from which year, the Post reports, the date on which a certain farmer in Northern France harvested his grapes has moved up by nearly two months.
The United States should engage other nations on climate change. More than a few opportunities for agreement may exist. A global pact on GHG caps with full trading of allowances is almost certainly not among them, nor, in my opinion, would it be desirable.
Hydrocarbon fuels are the true green energy sources. They disturb less land per unit of energy produced, do not murder wildlife and their combustion produces new supplies of water and carbon dioxide for the atmosphere. More carbon dioxide and water in the atmosphere enables plants to grow faster, bigger and more able to cope with heat or drought.
Will that nuclear-construction renaissance happen? Although no company has opened a new nuclear power plant on American soil in 30 years, at first glance, there are good reasons to believe in a resurgence. Ten companies, including Constellation Energy, Duke Energy, EDF International, Entergy, Exelon, FPL, Progress Energy, SCANA, Southern Company, and the Tennessee Valley Authority, have teamed up with reactor manufacturers GE Energy and Westinghouse in a consortium called NuStart to support efforts to build and operate new nukes. More than a dozen companies, including NuStart members, have either filed or signaled their intent to file for new generation permits at sites from Louisiana to Maryland.
But here is the quite fascinating selection bias by the lefty blogs: I have read the whole report, and this is absolutely the only chart in the whole study that in any way, shape, or form might be interpreted as a call for higher government education spending. Even more interesting is what these bloggers left out. This is the other half of the starting teacher pay analysis Drum et. al. chose note to include, and makes clear that even this chart is not a call for more total spending:
The models also performed poorly at simulating the warming rate of the sea surface temperatures of the Indian Ocean, Figure 20. The models almost double the warming rate there.
Part I:Schellnhuber claimed the Himalayas melt of 2035 was very easy to calculate
In a fact check of Chait's article, I wrote the following about the above paragraph:
Those are very big ifs. And there are many other explosive issues, from abortion to immigration, that make the process of getting to 60 votes in the Senate challenging to say the least. Have you noticed that I have not yet mentioned the public option? That is because I am in fundamental agreement with Paul Starr, the Princeton sociologist (and author of a Pulitzer Prize-winning history of American health care) that the monomaniacal focus on the public option is a waste of time. The key here is getting real competition and reasonable insurance plans through the exchanges. The public option was one way to try to do so, but neither the only way nor an absolutely essential one. Under the right circumstances, an exchange with only private insurers can work just fine.
Just imagine if the uncooperative polar ice was melting rather than thickening. We would hear a collective chorus of, ?See See See? from the climate activists and the media that the planet really is warming. That Al Gore was right when he predicted that the North Pole would have melted by 2013.
Romney Unveils Climate Protection Plan for Massachusetts
Conclusion : the Sagan/Hansen runaway greenhouse effect is complete nonsense, and if Hansen was a competent climate modeler he would already know this.
So the data may very well be real. Notice also that the trend in DMI plots for the last few years since 2000 has been ever so slightly below the mean. Since the sea ice melt may be driven more by wind and currents, what effect it may have on the 2009 sea ice melt season remains to be seen. I think it would be safe to say though, that NSIDC??s director, Mark Serreze won??t be issuing an ???ice free north pole?? soundbite this year.
7 March 2013 The Little Ice Age should be the story of the century, yet its only being announced quietly by climate scientists and solar physicists. Not a word is being mentioned by the mainstream media, who had a hand in selling the Global Warming propaganda that has become irrelevant as we slide into colder climate.
The NZ temperature record averages seven weather stations Auckland, Masterton, Wellington, Nelson, Hokitika, Lincoln and Dunedin through the twentieth century. But there are many gaps and flaws up to about 1930 and, apart from these seven, there are very few other records to use as benchmarks.
Mr Cameron is hardly the only prominent celebrity to oppose the ballot measure. Other high-profile individuals campaigning against it include David Arquette, Benjamin Bratt, and California's Governor, Arnold Schwarzenegger ? a prime candidate for a similar attack advert, since he drives an SUV and commutes to Sacramento from his home in Los Angeles by private jet.
CEI: Some people, like Steve Forbes and Bob Novak, have not been so charitable toward Greenspan.
Unscientific policies and regulatory grandiosity and excess, wrote Dr. Miller, are not EPAs only failings; neglecting to weigh costs and benefits is shockingly common, noting that The EPAs repeated failures should not come as a surprise because the agency has long been a haven for scientifically insupportable policies perpetrated by anti-technology ideologues.
What's more interesting is that periods in the Arctic when sea ice was exceptionally thick, polar bears and other Arctic animals had the hardest time surviving.
As a former loyal public servant, I wont give Ambroses cynical definition of the word politician, but it involves the word eel. We should remember, of course, that dictionaries can be wrong. Lets hope that philosophy can come to the rescue, and that there are at least some worthy Australian politicians, and public servants, who understand that bushfire is Australias most lethal, costly, and urgent natural hazard, and wont use pseudo-science to wriggle out of their duty of care, or ignore bushfire in the hope that it will go away, or become somebody elses responsibility. Should a basic grasp of philosophy be a requirement for political office? Plato thought so.
The slowdown is a bit of a mystery to climate scientists. True, the basic theory that predicts a warming of the planet in response to human emissions does not suggest that warming should be smooth and continuous. To the contrary, in a climate system still dominated by natural variability , there is every reason to think the warming will proceed in fits and starts.
Finance ministers and central bankers are now calling for an end to ethanol subsidies and other "biofuel policies adopted recently in the West." South African finance minister Trevor Manuel called such subsidies "criminal." Earlier, the Indian Finance Minister Chidambaram noted that "in a world where there is hunger and poverty, there is no policy justification for diverting food crops towards bio-fuels. Converting food into fuel is neither good policy for the poor nor for the environment."