Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
The Wealth of Nations was published in March 1776, just a few months before the signing of the American Declaration of Independence in July of 1776. If the American Founding Fathers articulated in TheDeclaration of Independence the political case for individual freedom, Adam Smith presented the complementary argument for economic freedom and free enterprise.
The authors report that Stenchikov et al . (2006) analyzed seven models used in the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) that "included all the models that specifically represented volcanic eruptions," finding that the strength and spatial pattern of the surface temperature anomalies predicted by them were not "well reproduced."
Natural influences and anthropogenic influences have different strengths in the stratosphere relative to the surface
This is a real concern. The presence of significant economic rents in the area will attract investment like flies to flypaper. For example, President Bush's new Advanced Energy Initiative offers $148 million for solar and $44 million for wind energy research in 2007. In most economic bubbles, the expectation of high profits is driven by inflated claims of the commodity's performance. In this case, those claims are backed in part by taxpayers' money, which makes them all the more attractive to investors. That does not make the bubble any less a bubble, however.
An often appearing name in the BBC news as the hottest place in the country is Gravesend but the true location of the Met Office thermometer is a mystery. By chance I followed up today and discovered a new snippet of information.
Just a few years ago, LNG import terminals were being constructed across North America in response to the then dwindling domestic natural gas supply. Most of them are underused. Today, the public debate is no longer about how to squeeze out more domestic supplies to limit expensive oil and gas imports and cap domestic coal usage but how much natural gas we should exportand that requires approval from the DOE.
Credit: Ian Howat. It has come to an end, Murray said during a session at the meeting. "There seems to have been a synchronous switch-off " of the speed-up, she said. Based on the shape and appearance of the 14 largest outlet glaciers in southeast Greenland, outlet glacier flows have returned to the levels of 2000 nearly everywhere. There's a pattern of speeding up to maximum velocity and then slowing down since 2005," Murray reported. It's amazing; they sped up and slowed down together. They're not in runaway acceleration.
When skeptics point out these blatant biases, however, alarmists claim that scientists by their very nature are immune from having their environmental activist affiliations, the source of their paychecks or their preexisting advocacy for global warming restrictions influence their research and scientific opinions. Skeptics who call attention to such biases are demonized as attacking scientists or attacking science itself.
Given that the President last night announced that legislation for "a market-based cap" on greenhouse gas emissions is a priority for his administration, it should come as no surprise that there has been an explosion in climate lobbying on Capitol Hill. According to an article in today's Politico,
Dr.Timothy F. Ball on Alex Jones show
Environmental Protection Agency administrator from 2001 to 2003; governor of New Jersey from 1994 to 2001; chair of the Republican Leadership Council
A close study of the Elsner paper does not appear to reveal any reference at all to tornadoes getting stronger. (The paper is here if anyone finds such a reference, let me know!) So where does he get this evidence from?
Congratulations to BH regular Mike Haseler, who has been appointed UKIP's climate change spokesman for Scotland. The press release is as follows:
Let me stress that there is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast and the models were not good last year. But this year's warm water is more extensive than last and the models are more in agreement. If the forecasts hold into mid-summer, our confidence in the strong El Nino prediction will be substantially enhanced. So hold on but you decide on buying that ski pass at your favorite resort.
Germany has the most expensive electricity in Europe, with an average price of 26.8 euro cents (40c) a kilowatt hour. No wonder Chancellor Angela Merkel has warned that the rapid expansion of green energy programs is weakening Germany?s competitive advantage in the global economy.
Until the last quarter of a millennium, mankind depended on living nature for all its food and clothing, most of its energy, and much of its material and medicines. Then mankind began to develop technologies to augment or displace living natures uncertain bounty. In a new study, author Indur Goklany shows how fossil fuels not only saved humanity from natures whims, but nature from humanitys demands.
The SPM omits that better cultivars and improved irrigation increase crop yields . It shows the impact of sea level rise on the most vulnerable country, but does not mention the average. It emphasizes the impacts of increased heat stress but downplays reduced cold stress . It warns about poverty traps , violent conflict and mass migration without much support in the literature. The media, of course, exaggerated further. . . .
If temperature can't be projected for a week, how is itpossible to project temperature to 2050 and beyond?
In the green energy society, before coal and oil replaced our hay burning horses and bullocks, most of the food produced was consumed by the large farming families, their labourers and their draught animals. Any surplus went to service people like butchers, bakers, blacksmiths and saddlers. Cities were small and there was little left for the tax man.
Interannual shifts in plant productivity (green line) fluctuated in step with shifts in atmospheric carbon dioxide (red line) between 2000 through 2009. Credit: Maosheng Zhao and Steven Running Earth has done an ecological about-face: Global plant productivity that once flourished under warming temperatures and a lengthened growing season is now on the decline, struck by the stress of drought.
Japan caused an uproar last week when it flatly said it will refuse to go along, as long as all major emitting countries have similar obligations. The United States was assigned a reduction target, but it rejected the treaty. Developing countries, including China India were excluded from Kyoto's strictures.
In spite of its massive size, Obama's carbon tax won't begin to pay for all his spending increases, such as a budget that will generate $4.8 trillion in increased deficits, Obama's trillion-dollar toxic-asset program, and his $800 billion, economy-shrinking "stimulus" package, all of which contradict Obama's campaign pledge of a "net spending cut."
This comes almost exactly 40 years after the government wrote a state of the climate report saying that global cooling was going to cause floods, famines, extreme weather, and wouldkill us all.
First, 74% of all U.S. stations are adjusted, while only 37% of ROW stations are adjusted. This is a statistically significant difference by any measure. Is this because the ROW stations are, on average, located in more rural settings than in the US? Or is it because of a difference in methodology (or metadata)? While no one to my knowledge has carried out the engineering-quality investigations necessary to resolve the matter, my impression is that the US has made a fairly concerted effort to maintain weather stations in rural settings (Orland, Miles City etc.) and that many ROW stations are in cities and small towns (especially airports). Using a consistent apples-and-apples population classification, I would be very surprised if this very large difference between U.S. and ROW classifications held up.
Although fracking has been used for 60 years, in combination with deep horizontal drilling it has sent U.S. oil and gas production sharply upward for the first time in decades, turned "imminent depletion" into another century of affordable petroleum, generated millions of jobs and billions of dollars in government revenues, kept home heating and electricity prices from skyrocketing in the face of EPA's war on coal, brought a resurgence in US petrochemical and other industries, and helped reduce CO2 emissions (which should make Earth Guardians and other global warming true believers happy). It's meant fewer oil imports, improved balance of trade, and more opportunities to lift more people out of poverty worldwide.
On forest floor, air is very still, humidity is almost always above 70%, and temperature is relatively constant and other than seedlings, herbs, and ferns, vegetation is sparse due to lack of light. Also, mostly free from decaying logs and dead leaves since high temps and humidity are good place for billions of microorganisms in soil to break down debris quickly. "This fast and continual recycling of nutrients is what keeps rainforest systems working so efficiently, despite their shallow, relatively infertile soil." (NWF-Educator's Guide)
"In the long run, Congress should end subsidies, privatize and deregulate passenger rail. These actions are the only way to force Amtrak to abandon unnecessary routes that are not commercially viable, improve safety, and manage its resources effectivelyand honestly."
However, we can reach the point where remaining pollutants pose few or no health risks and we have largely done so. Since 1970, America's cars have eliminated nearly 99% of pollutants that once came out of tailpipes, notes Air Quality in America co-author Joel Schwartz. Refiners have eliminated lead from gasoline and reduced its sulfur content by some 95% while coal-fired power plants now remove 80-95% of the particulates, mercury, nitrogen oxides and sulfur dioxide that they emitted in 1970.
New Source Review: Report to the President (pdf)
We have often discussed the observed patterns of Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and what may lie behind them, and we generally have concluded, based upon both our analysis of the data, along with a thorough review of the scientific literature, that identifying a statistically significant and robust human signal in the observed history of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones, whether over the past 100+ years, or in recent decades, is untenable.
National Economic Research Associates (NERA) used the Federal Government?s own data in finding that Obama?s proposed EPA regulations would cost America over 180,000 jobs per year between 2013 and 2020.
Now, these and other projects appear unlikely to make the year-end deadline to potentially qualify for hundreds of millions of dollars in stimulus funds. If extensions aren't granted in the lame duck session of Congress, the future of many of these plans could be in doubt.
Eisenhower's warning dovetails well with one made some years earlier by the Austrian economist Joseph Schumpeter in his essay, "Can Capitalism Survive?" He warned that intellectual elites, driven by resentment of the market and their economic self-interest, would push for the expansion of the state and the increased regulation of the economy. A casual observer need only look around today to see how far they have succeeded.
Historical records indicate that the first recorded El Nio occurred in 1525 observed by Spanish explorers. Other studies suggest strong ancient El Nios ended Peruvian civilizations. The main point here is that strong El Nios are natural, and not increasing in relationship to global warming as contended by many climate scientists.
Because, in the long run, the country class will not support a party as conflicted as today's Republicans, those Republican politicians who really want to represent it will either reform the party in an unmistakable manner, or start a new one as Whigs like Abraham Lincoln started the Republican Party in the 1850s.
L. GORDON CROVITZ: "Complexity Is Bad For Your Health"
Dr Whitehouse is a man who deserves to be listened to. He has consistently followed an approach of examining observations rather than projections of large scale computer models, which are too often cited as evidence. He looks dispassionately at the data, trying to establish what message it tells us, rather than using it to confirm a pre-held view.
Similarly, to avoid making the PSD statute an absurdity, the EPA must construe ?air pollutant? in CAA 165(a)(4) to mean any NAAQS-regulated air pollutant.
Farmers in developing countries are clear-cutting rain forests to make room for arable land to grow crops and meet global demand. According to many scientists, these land-use changes result in massive emissions of greenhouse gases.
Or, some at the march were there for entirely unrelated reasons, such as this walking contradiction:
develop tactical and strategic regional adaptation plans to reduce vulnerability to extreme weather events, climate change, and sea level rise.
>> At 13:25 28/05/99 +0200, you wrote:
It was easy to compare the year-to-year warmings and coolings in the East Pacific data and our ENSO index because neither has warmed in 30 years. Lets make the Rest-of-the-World sea surface temperature anomalies just as easy to compare to our ENSO index by removing the trend in the Rest-of-the-World data. Detrending a dataset is simple. First, the monthly values of the trend line for the Rest-of-the-World data are determined. Second, the values of the trend line are subtracted from the Rest-of-the-World data. Its a quick and easy process with a spreadsheet. Figure 7 compares the Rest-of-the-World data to its detrended version.
1) The various green levies will add 188 to household dual bills by 2020, about 13%. Of this, we are already paying 89/yr.
An overriding feature of the debate is the constant attempt to intimidate policy makers, in some cases successfully, with the mantras of follow the science and the science is truly settled. The purpose is to create the impression that there is really no room for argument; this is not really a public policy issue; it is one on which the experts have spoken, and we would all be quite daft to do other than follow the prescriptions, it is asserted, which flow automatically from the scientific findings.
Unfortunately, it seems that environmentalist groups owe more than their intellectual pedigree to the gas industry. Recent evidence suggests Chesapeake Energy has been giving millions of dollars to environmental nonprofits, including the American Lung Association and the Sierra Club, to propagate anti-coal disinformation. Chesapeake Energy started funding environmentalist groups soon after being pressured to shut down its "Coal is Filthy" campaign. This timing raises the unseemly specter that the aforementioned attack ads, in addition to being tasteless and untrue, are part of a prolonged campaign on behalf of one fossil fuel industry (gas) against another (coal).
To explore the indirect ways that people use energy, we examined input-output tables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis for 2006, the latest year for which data are available. The core of the input-output accounts consists of two basic national accounting tables: a "Make" table and a "Use" table. The Make table shows the production of commodities by industry. Each row shows all the commodities produced by a specific industry with the row total being the industry's output. Each column shows the total output of a specific commodity from all industries. The Use table shows the use of commodities by intermediate and final users. In contrast to the Make table, the rows in the Use table present the commodities, and the columns display the industries and final users that use them. The Use table is sometimes referred to as the "recipe" matrix because it shows the components that are necessary for producing the output of each industry.
There are 2 main reasons why stronger tornadoes are usually associated with unseasonably cool conditions, and why there has been a decrease in strong tornadoes during a period of average warming:
Leaked IPCC Draft: Climate Change Signals Expected To Be Relatively Small Over Coming 20-30 Years
The days of Washington dragging its heels are over, Obama said.
Here's a summary from the report of the relevant GATT and WTO rules:
We show for the first time in a large cohort of patients with chronic HF that moderate wine consumption is associated with a better perceived and objective health status, lower prevalence of depression, and less vascular inflammation, but does not translate into a more favorable clinical 4-year outcomes.
Apparently you should abandon modernity so that fermented whale tail doesn't taste different
The 200-year lag that we observe certainly hints at an oceanic mechanism, Buizert added. If the climatic changes were propagated by the atmosphere, the Antarctic response would have occurred in a matter of years or decades, not two centuries. The ocean is large and sluggish, thus the 200-year time lag is a pretty clear fingerprint of the oceans involvement.
First, we could stop doing things that make the risks worse. For example, we should eliminate the subsidized flood insurance that leads people to live in flood plains and on eroding coastlines. We should end the subsidized hurricane insurance that leads people to live in areas prone to hurricanes, where even small increases in force could cause major harms. We might eliminate the water and farm subsidies that lead people to live and farm in areas where even small increases in drought cause hardship. And we should eliminate fire insurance subsidies that lead people to live in areas that tend to burst into flames during warm periods.
These outcomes were far superior to any attempt by those in political power to consciously and purposely try to guide production into various directions. Those in political authority possess neither the knowledge nor wisdom nor ability to do so better than each man in his own corner of society, who is most familiar with the surrounding circumstances and opportunities.
9 In June 2007, Tim Flannery warned Brisbane that its water supplies are so low they need desalinated water urgently, possibly in as little as 18 months. Last month Brisbane recorded the wettest December in 150 years .
In any case, the peer-review process can easily be slanted by the editor, who usually selects the reviewers. And some editors misuse their position to advance their personal biases.
NOAA will reporting something very different, because they subtract up to 1.7 degrees from older temperatures. Essentially all reported US warming is due to a hockey stick of temperature adjustments, which makes the past appear to be much colder than what the thermometers measured at the time. (They of course do not mention this in their press releases.)
Another important fact, according to Sedjo and Clawson, relates to a study done by the Food and Agriculture Organization and U.N. Environmental Programme by J.P. Lanly. Lanly is Forest Coordinator for the UNEP/FAO Tropical Resources Assessment Project and his study "indicates that the undisturbed or "virgin" broadleaved closed forests have a far lower rate of deforestation than the total, being only 0.27 percent annually as compared with 2.06 percent annually for logged over secondary forest.
Fortunately, the Supreme Court wasn't comfortable with Kagan's proposition that a firm needs to break laws in order to get access to justice. Noting that Beckstead & Watts would face "severe punishment should its challenge fail," Chief Justice John Roberts wrote dryly in the June 28 opinion, "We normally do not require plaintiffs to bet the farm by taking the violative action before testing the validity of the law, . . . and we do not consider this a meaningful avenue of relief."
SPEAKING of the Met, it has so far predicted 2001, 2002, 2004, 2005 and 2007 would be the worlds hottest or second-hottest year on record, but nine of the past 10 years it predicted temperatures too high.
This would be decisive if today??s models accurately simulate all important modes of natural variability. In fact, models do not accurately simulate the behavior of clouds and ocean cycles. They may also ignore important interactions between the Sun, cosmic rays, and cloud formation.
The CPP's Climate Benefits Are Illusory. EPA claims the CPP will deliver $31 billion in climate benefits to the American people in 2030. That is impossible because, even assuming EPA climate sensitivity estimates, the CPP will avert less than 0.02 C of global warming by 2100 too small an amount to have any discernible impact on sea-level rise, weather patterns, polar bear populations, or any other climate-related variable people care about.
The Bush-Blair doctrine of eliminating the risk of terrorists seems instead to have unleashed a horrific and savage Islamic movement that has capitalised on the chaos and power vacuum left in their wake.
Thus, U.S. ex rel. Fragoules denotes that the Feds have instituted the action, but on the information and instigation of an individual (Fragoules) who has a private interest in the matter. Ex rel . is an abbreviation for the Latin Ex relatione , meaning Upon relation, or information.
Figure 12 presents the model-data comparison of the sea surface temperature anomalies for the Atlantic Ocean. They do a reasonable job here. The modeled warming rate is slightly more than the observations. In fact, of the three major ocean basins, the models perform best in the Atlantic.
Next, we can use these numbers to estimate the net feedbacks operating in the climate system. The simple time-dependent model of the climate system in this case looks like this:
And the media diehard alarmist are reaching even deeper into their bag of tricks. The September 2013 National Geographic cover shows the Statue of Liberty covered in 65 m (214 ft) of waterthis is 80 times more than even the highest expected sea level rise in the upcoming IPCC report.
He also said that, "One might get the impression that countries of the European Union believe that Russia is simply obliged to ratify the protocol but this position is deeply erroneous. Russia had already cut its greenhouse emissions by 41 percent. I believe that the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol is possible only after negotiations are held with the European Union to which certain terms should be set. In particular, Russia objects to the fact that the European Union might easily adapt to clauses of the protocol in order to exercise pressure in the field of international trade. If the European Union does not change its politics, Russia will not agree to the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol."
Figure 3. Homogenization adjustments made by GISS to the Matanuska , Alaska rural temperature record.
Hansen constructed three scenarios "Scenario A assumes continued exponential trace gas growth, scenario B assumes a reduced linear linear growth of trace gases, and scenario C assumes a rapid curtailment of trace gas emissions such that the net climate forcing ceases to increase after the year 2000."
Look at the break points in Figures 4 and 5. Theres one in 1976 that corresponds to the Great Pacific Climate Shift of 1976. That natural phenomenon effectively shifted the surface temperature of the entire Eastern Pacific Ocean (about 33% of the surface area of the global oceans) up about 0.17 deg C . In Figure 5, you can see its impact very clearly now that you know it exists. The Great Pacific Climate Shift also refers to the change in the basic state of the ocean processes taking place in the tropical Pacific. After 1976, El Nio events dominated, but for the period from the early-1940s to 1976, El Nios and La Nias were more evenly matched, with La Nias just a little bit stronger .
Those preferences that do reduce energy production costs simply encourage market actors to produce costly, economically uncompetitive energy. Markets are not made more efficient by producing costly relative to less costly energy.??