Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
One of the more difficult concepts is RegEM, an algorithm developed by Tapio Schneider in 2001 . Its a form of expectation maximization (EM) which is a common and well understood method for infilling missing data. As weve previously noted on WUWT, many of the weather stations used in the Steig et al study had issues with being buried by snow , causing significant data gaps in the Antarctic record and in some burial cases stations have been accidentally lost or confused with others at different lat/lons. Then of course there is the problem of coming up with trends for the entire Antarctic continent when most of the weather station data is from the periphery and the penisula, with very little data from the interior.
Queen's University Belfast has data on tree rings that goes back millennia, in particular, to the Medieval Warm Period. QUB researchers have not analyzed the data (because they lack the expertise to do so). They also refuse to release the data. I have been trying to obtain the data, via the UK Freedom of Information Act, since April 2007. The story is scandalous. In light of all the slander going around, maybe I should add this: I used to do mathematical research and financial trading on Wall Street and in the City of London; since 1995, I have been studying independently (for more details, please see my web site); I have received no payment of any kind from any entity for any work that I have done since 1995. Douglas J. Keenan
The expedition vessel was hired by a group of global warming scientists, says Craig Rucker at CFact.
This economy needs stimulus. Taxing and spending are anti-stimulantsand so is regulating. The administration's fiscal "stimulus" amounts to taking money out of the economy and putting it back in. That is like ladling water out of the deep end of a pool only to pour it back in at the shallow endall the while paying somebody to make the pointless transfer.
Australias antarctic runway melting | The Wagin Argus
Wrong! Wrong! Wrong! It's cooling, not warming.
How the Hadley Centre spins the data on non-warming
" The most obvious way for warming to be caused naturally is for small, natural fluctuations in the circulation patterns of the atmosphere and ocean to result in a 1% or 2% decrease in global cloud cover. Clouds are the Earths sunshade, and if cloud cover changes for any reason, you have global warming or global cooling ."
However, many people involved with the U.S. research program are involved closely with the IPCC process, and a reciprocal influence is to be expected. A genuinely independent climate assessment process would need to build from the ground up, recruiting a team wholly independent of the IPCC's personnel, and funded adequately to conduct original research, computer modeling, and consultations on a scale similar to the IPCC. Congress might consider earmarking a portion of current climate science appropriations for a competitive effort, perhaps in collaboration with Australia, Russia, Italy, Japan, and other nations that have expressed reservations about the Kyoto process.
Thus, the price of oil, which is responsible for about 40 percent of the price we see at the pumps, is largely outside of government control. On the other hand, a good chunk of the other 60 percent can be reduced. The most obvious target is taxes, including the 18.4 cents per gallon federal excise tax, as well as state and local taxes averaging 24 cents per gallon.
Advantages: Least effort. Readers will notice that back in January, when I first began using data, I would use only one data set: GISSTemp. This choice was dictated by pure laziness. I was interested in getting up to speed and gaining familiarity with available data sets and the literature.
In contrast, records of CO2 and temperature reveal no discernable warming effect of CO2. There is a correlation between atmospheric CO2 and temperature, but with CO2 changes following temperature changes by an average of about 800 years (Caillon 2003 ), indicating that it is temperature change that is driving atmospheric CO2 change (as it should, since warming oceans are able to hold less CO2). This does not rule out the possibility that CO2 also drives temperature, and in theory a doubling of CO2 should cause about a 1 degree increase in temperature before any feedback effects are accounted, but feedbacks could be negative (dampening rather than amplifying temperature forcings), so there no reason, just from what we know about the greenhouse mechanism, that CO2 has to be a significant player. The one thing we can say is that whatever the warming effect of CO2, it is not detectable in the raw CO2 vs. temperature data.
UN IPCC 2001 report: "Milder winter temperatures will decrease heavy snowstorms' IPCC Third Assessment Report ? Climate Change 2001
support is vital to keep pressure on Iran in between attempts at negotiation,
The project?s purpose is as ambitious as sending men to the moon once was: to foster the development of a global energy system with significantly lower greenhouse gas emissions and provide abundant and efficient energy for a world population projected to increase by some 21 percent in the next two decades.
2) Regardless of whether it's getting hotter or colder "or both "we are going to need to produce a lot more energy in order to remain productive and comfortable.
They are using high-pressure pumps from Nottinghamshire to fight a woodyard blaze, more than 48 hours after a pile of wood chippings caught fire , and are pumping water almost four miles from Harden reservoir at Hade Edge.
The most intense hurricane in US history occurred in 1935, and seven of the ten most intense hurricanes occurred below 350 ppm. It has been seven years since a major hurricane hit the US the longest period on record.
After lamenting that, since his visit to the 2009 Copenhagen UN conference on climate change, President Obama has failed to mention global warming every day, Rosenthal wrote But two years later, now that nearly every other nation accepts climate change as a pressing problem, America has turned agnostic on the issue.
???The results of the study indicated that a temperature increase of up to 2C could be advantageous for growth of some species of tropical plants, such as Stylosanthes capitata Vogel ,?? Martinez stated.
Errors arise when we think about jobs on a gross basis, not a net one. Green programs do create jobs in certain fields, like makers of solar panels and providers of energy audits. Home Depot's CEO attended the jobs summit to push for more tax credits for products like insulation and energy-efficient windows-because these create jobs (and profits) at Home Depot. Many participants in the Green Jobs session argued that quick implementation of Cap and Trade was necessary to create jobs, because businesses won't invest in the green technologies they produce until they know what it will cost to emit carbon.
First up, a common misconception in the climate debate is that radiation from a cold body (e.g. the -18C atmosphere) can warm a hot body (e.g. the +15C Earth surface) just because the cold body does indeed send very-low-energy photons to the hot body. Heat transfer (not radiation) from cold to hot is forbidden by the 2nd Law of Thermodynamics on a macro basis, and by the Pauli Exclusion Principle of fundamental quantum theory on an atomic and molecular basis.
Twenty years ago, Mark Simpson walked out of Britain's first style exhibition laser-beamed at menGQ had sponsored "It's a Man's World"and, on the evidence of the stockpiled face creams and the tailored Armani suits, declared that the age of Metrosexual Man had arrived. ("I'd seen the future, and it was moisturized," Simpson reminisces.) Men were finally set free to be vain, to trumpet with perfumed pride that both fellow men and women admirers be damned; nothing would come between themselves and their reflection.
Molly: Well, it recognizes that the world is now dangerously overcrowded. Did you know there are now about 1 trillion of us? Experts at United Forests say we are now at the carrying capacity of the Earth. Each year billions of us die just due to overcrowding and competition for natural resources.
Scientists can calculate how much energy is added to the atmosphere by increases in greenhouse gases. Then, using sophisticated computer models, they attempt to simulate how the climate responds to the added energy. But no one knows how to calculate correctly the climate's response to the added energy. Two of the many questions in this regard are the impacts of water vapor and clouds in the climate response. Scientists need to learn more about whether changes in atmospheric water vapor and clouds amplify or diminish the effects of human-made greenhouse gases on the earth's climate.
in the U.S. there has been little temperature change in the past 50 years, the time of rapidly increasing greenhouse gases in fact, there was a slight cooling throughout much of the country (Figure 2).
Carpe Climate: Senate GOP seizes power from Obama by controlling confirmation of EPA political appointees
With respect to the current and future health of Earths coral reefs, McClanahan et al . (2009) note that Jones et al . (2004) have argued that climate overrides and undermines local resource use and management, and they say that Aronson and Precht (2006) have thus further argued that this position emphasizes the need for management of the atmosphere at the global scale, if we are to preserve the planets corals.
The reconstruction of past temperatures is a science unto itself, and the library contains many journals dedicated to the field. We could easily locate an article a week presenting a temperature reconstruction from some part of the planet that would call into question the notion that the 20th century was a period of unusual warmth. You may recall many essays we presented over the past five years examining the hockey stick depiction of planetary temperature (little change for 900 years, and suddenly 100 years ago, the temperature shot up) so merrily adopted by Gore and many others.
Last March, Energy Secretary Steven Chu announced that he would convene a "blue-ribbon panel to develop a long-term strategy that must include the waste disposal plan" as a way to compensate for abandoning Yucca Mountain. "I don't want to suggest what this blue-ribbon panel might determine, but let me stress this will be done this year," Chu told a Senate committee. Much like Obama's promise to close Guantanamo Bay within one year, that hasn't happened. No blue-ribbon panel has been convened, and waste policy is in disarray. This threatens the viability of nearly two dozen proposed commercial nuclear reactors that are on the drawing boards. It also leaves taxpayers exposed to tens of billions of dollars in liabilities to electric utilities, which have shouldered the burden of dealing with nuclear waste for years while the feds have been collecting a surcharge from ratepayers.
The May-June 2010 issue of The Heartlander opens with Heartland President Joseph Bast's comments on old media and new media. Heartland's Fourth International Conference on Climate Change attracted little old media coverage, a fact that speaks "volumes about what's wrong with old media," Bast writes.Also in this issue:a lengthy wrap-up of proceedings at the Fourth International Conference on Climate Change;information about Heartland's 26th anniversary benefit dinner and sixth Emerging Issues Forum, both scheduled for Thursday, September 16;news of Heartland's latest online effort, The Freedom Pub, where liberty's on tap; andupdates on our public relations and government relations work on budget and tax policy, environment, health care, information technology and telecommunications, school reform, lawsuit abuse, and finance, insurance, and real estate
It's easy for many of us in the western world to accept a tiny green inconvenience and then wallow in that righteous feeling, surrounded by our "clean" technology and energy that is only slightly more expensive if adequately subsidized.
This post is available in pdf form here . Its only 1.2MB so you could email copies to your friends who are proponents of manmade global warmingand to your skeptical friends as well.
Akin to, and largely responsible for the sweeping changes in our industrial-military posture, has been the technological revolution during recent decades. . . . A steadily increasing share is conducted for, by, or at the direction of, the Federal government.
on Tuesday, January 11th, 2011 at 9:19 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.
Although Smiths research establishes a natural frequency of vacancy rates, it still doesnt tell us why a site became vacant. In Beevers 2003 paper, the seven extinct sites he attributed to climate change had other more plausible explanations. One site had half of the talus removed for road maintenance, another site had become a dump site, and a third site had scattered shotgun shells throughout the talus.
One-third of Mans entire influence on climate since the Industrial Revolution has occurred since January 1997. Yet for 224 months since then there has been no global warming at all (Fig. 1). With this months RSS temperature record, the Pause sets a new record at 18 years 8 months.
These costs are small in comparison to the economic damage that could result from reduced use of carbon fuels and the high cost of noncarbon substitutes, such as solar and wind power.
This sentiment is particularly strong among recent immigrants. One way to show your devotion to your new country is to revere its symbols and institutions, and for the working class the military is perhaps the most accessible institution of all. Hispanics in particular enlist in the military, and it is no surprise that Republican presidential candidates who are strongly supportive of the military, like Reagan and George W. Bush, have fared best among Hispanic voters in the last 45 years.
Why, such a thing is hard to believe; (link fixed!) ...the UKs General Medical Council has found that Andrew Wakefield the founder of the modern antivaccination movement acted "dishonestly and irresponsibly" when doing the research that led him to conclude that vaccinations were linked with autism. Despite this and other sarcastic headlines, I'm not suggesting all scientists are unethical and/or incompetent. But I do believe peer review systems (not to mention, hiring standards) are failing us when those who engage in political activism are permitted to even remain within the walls of research institutions. I was going to write that the bullying, obfuscation, data manipulation, public activism (and shoddy science journalism ) we've witnessed in the name of "climate" research is just the tip of the iceberg , but that's not quite accurate. It's more like a template.
I'd like to say thank you to the Competitive Enterprise Institute (CEI). Thanks for all the effective actions and the courageous stands that you've taken in the fight to protect freedom. Thanks to all of you who have supported CEI with your effort, time, and money. And I'd like to say a special thank you to Bill and Hillary Clinton.
Apparently, global warming is now irreversible. Or, at least, it is if you don't consider any of the policy options that might, you know, reverse it. As Roger Pielke Jr points out, the study didn't examine the potential for geoengineering:
Although the observed effects were generally positive, they were decidedly less large, rapid, extensive, and uniformly positive than those reported for the GBR . All of them also involved areas subject to much greater fishing pressure than the GBR. One might reasonably expect that increased protection for the least impacted areas would result in a less marked beneficial effect rather than the much more widespread rapid and dramatic benefits claimed by McCook et al.
The Amazon River drainage basin alone supports about 5,000 kinds of fishes, nearly equal to all those in the Atlantic Ocean, while little Panama boasts as many plant species as the entire continent of Europe." (Richard Nalley, Science Digest, p.56)
I am personally keeping close watch on the seismic activity in the area and if I see anything ominous Ill let you know. As soon as I finish packing and driving about 2,000 miles to the south of here.
Provoked Scientists Try To Explain Global Warming Standstill The hunt for this missing energy, and the search for the mechanisms, both natural and artificial, that caused the temperature hiatus are, in many ways, a window into climate science itself. Beneath the sheen of consensus stating that human emissions are forcing warmer temperatures a notion no scientist interviewed for this story doubts there are deep uncertainties of how quickly this rise will occur, and how much air pollution has so far prevented this warming. Many question whether energy is missing at all.
Last week, at the World Federation of Scientists annual seminar on planetary emergencies in Sicily, I heard presentations from several researchers each using different methods showing that the warming from doubling atmospheric CO2 concentration will be just 1 C, not the 3.3 C the IPCC imagines.
Franke and Clemmesen conclude that "herring eggs can cope at current temperature conditions with an increase in CO 2 ," even one "exceeding future predictions of CO 2 -driven ocean acidification." References
It's not us : This is a surprisingly basic and general point to appear on the 80th place. As "proofs" that it's us, Cook mentions satellite-measured energy flows and the stratosphere cooling. However, the latter is a general by-product of any near-surface warming, so it says nothing whatsoever about "us". To see whether the warming is due to the greenhouse effect, we need to look at more specific "fingerprints" of the greenhouse effect, namely the warming in the tropical mid troposphere where the greenhouse theory predicts the fastest warming trend. And according to the observations, it doesn't work at all: when the relevant criteria of the type Cook mentions are used correctly, science clearly says that it's not us. The energy flows disagree between the observations and the greenhouse-dominated models, too: see Lindzen Choi 2009. Again, it's not us. Cook's arguments are complete bogus.
Bangladesh is awash with climate adaptation projects. But I am left wondering: what makes for success? And how do you know when you see it? In the capital Dhaka, I track down Bangladeshi scientist Saleemul Huq, leading climate adaptation expert, and author for the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IP CC).
In particular, what is it telling us about the social status and perceived authority of scientific claims about climate change?
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Complete with interactive chart - This series of four articles will address the problem by digging into the details of the protest, the people and organisations working behind the scenes, and by deconstructing some of the bovine excrement being fed to the public. After several weeks of investigation it's become clear that everything is not what it looks like on the surface- despite the protest's grassroots appearance, there are many well-funded organizations working in the background.
This problem is only the tip of the iceberg with NCDC data. "For one thing, it is clear that comparing data from previous years, when the final figure was produced by averaging a large number of temperatures, with those of later years, produced from a small temperature base and the grid method, is like comparing apples and oranges," says Smith. "When the differences between the warmest year in history and the tenth warmest year is less than three-quarters of a degree, it becomes silly to rely on such comparisons," added D'Aleo, who asserts that the data manipulation is "scientific travesty" that was committed by activist scientists to advance the global warming agenda.
Several weeks after the news of the EPA report hit the press, the administration convened an Earth Observation System summit in Washington. More than thirty nations agreed to undertake a cooperative effort to collect better environmental monitoring data, including precise global weather data that may help refine climate change projections. The data they will gather may be extraordinarily usefulbut their value is limited if neither the public nor the policymakers involved understand why we actually need this information.
Im guessing Manne has never spoken to a real skeptic, at least not for long. Only someone who studies skeptics through the DeSmog portal could define denialists as orthodox members of a tightly knit group whose natural disposition is not to think for themselves.
Reid Bryson , emeritus professor of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison : Its absurd. Of course its going up. It has gone up since the early 1800s, before the Industrial Revolution, because were coming out of the Little Ice Age , not because were putting more carbon dioxide into the air.
The strange part is, when you open a barrel of un conventional oil to see what conventions were broken in its creation, you find it is indistinguishable from conventional oil.
You could think that things are different on the gravitational side. You may measure whether the topology of the spacetime is one of a wormhole; or a topologically trivial one. However, as I mentioned many times (as a half-pedagogic, half-research contribution of mine), this is not the case. One actually can't define observables (linear operators) for the spacetime topology.
Here??s the bottom line: ???Yes?? other forms of warming (under extreme circumstances) could cause the hot-spot according to the models. But it isn??t there, the models are still wrong. Just compare the models with reality.
12d. How well do atmospheric models deal with the influence of clouds
8.Mandatory reductions in CO 2 emissions, pursued to prevent dangerous global warming, would have little or no discernible impact on global temperatures, but would greatly increase the price of energy and therefore of everything else. Such policies would put more people at greater risk than the warming they are intended to prevent, because they would slow, stop, or even reverse the economic growth that enables people to adapt to all climates. They would also harm the poor more than the wealthy, and would harm them more than the small amount of warming they might prevent.
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First, let?s review the global average temperature, both at the surface, and in the lower atmosphere since 1979?the year that satellite observations of the temperature from the lower atmosphere become reliably available, and pretty near the beginning of the second warming episode of the 20th century.
For all we know, there is a wholly separate universe, a material world coexisting with everything we can touch and see, with a lot more mass than ours, and getting by without much interaction with our material world, apart from gravity perhaps.
Remember these scientists and politicians just got on the world stage and literally screamed at the world that, if we dont let them tax us hundreds of billions of dollars and send it to small generally communist, undeveloped countries , the world will die. As an ignorant conservative, you couldnt get me to do that except by gunpoint. Of all things we know, we know the solution presented, was a FAKE!
Botkin, D. B., D. A. Woodby, and R. A. Nisbet, 1991, Kirtland?s Warbler Habitats: A Possible Early Indicator of Climatic Warming, Biological Conservation 56 (1): 63-78.
The administration argues that the acid rain program has reduced emissions below the required regulatory cap and has done so at very low cost, about $100 per ton of SO2 reduced. According to the brief, however, economists have estimated that the true cost of the acid rain program has been about $187 to $210 per ton. Moreover, the program is supposed to reduce total emissions to 9 million tons by 2002. That goal will not be reached until between 2005 and 2012, according to economists at MIT.