Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
To understand why there are such huge uncertainties in the computer simulations, consider that the additional energy added to the climate system by the doubling of atmospheric CO2 is about 4 watts per square meter (W/m2) a small amount of energy compared to the amount of the sun's radiation (342 W/m2) at the top of the atmosphere. But 4 W/m2 is also small compared to the uncertainties in the climate change calculations. For example, knowledge of the amount of energy flowing from equator to poles is uncertain by an amount equivalent to 25-30 W/m2. The amount of sunlight absorbed by the atmosphere or reflected by the surface is also uncertain by as much as 25 W/m2. Some computer models include adjustments to the energy flows of as much as 100 W/m2. Imprecise treatment of clouds may introduce another 25 W/m2 of uncertainty into the basic computations.19
Aviation demanded and received a separate, special deal in the Kyoto Protocol, but several governments and the European Union are now actively exploring ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from airplanes. The goal is to reduce airline passenger demand, and the methods being considered are additional taxes on air travel or including airlines in a cap-and-trade system.
You chose to depict the one based on C14 solar data, which kind of stands out
According to one study, 75% of the nutrients found in rain forests is located in the plants, 17% is in decomposing matter, and only 8% is in the soil itself. Therefore, they have developed as closed systems where "anatomical, physiological, biochemical, and ecological mechanisms guarantee little loss, little uptake from the sources, and thus, conservation of nutrients." (deMiranda p.155)
Recent examinations by analysts Paul Homewood, Tony Heller and others confirm that a wide variety of official temperature datasets have been excessively manipulated by climate "scientists" - to the point where policymakers can no longer be sure if climate records can be trusted.
A version of this article originally appeared in Investor's Business Daily on October 16, 2013.
In this case, it's hard to know which is wrong: the models, the surface data, or the satellite data. Most likely, they're all wrong to some degree: no data are perfect, and no models are perfect. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.
At the other end of the globe, the models failed miserably. The models indicate that the surface of the Southern Ocean (Figure 22) should have warmed over the past 32+ years, but the sea surface temperatures there cooled in that time.
Sex sells, as any ad guru or pornographer will tell you. So why not market global warming with nudity? The good news is that naked hippies is about the last gasp of the global warmers desperate attempts to save the hoax.
Available from the Hoover Press is Breaking the Environmental Policy Gridlock, Terry L. Anderson, editor. Also available from the Hoover Press is the videotape "The Heat Is On," an episode of the weekly television program Uncommon Knowledge, jointly produced by the Hoover Institution and the San Jose PBS affiliate KTEH, which features a discussion on global warming. To order, call 800-935-2882.
> >> uncertainties, these uncertainties are not unbounded and with new
2. Keep a sense of proportion, especially when it comes to generational burden-sharing.
I can recommend the book to anyone concerned to understand the present debates with regard to climate change on both a local and global scale. The style of writing makes for easy reading, and the layout of the book is such that sections of particular interest can be found easily. Open University Geological Society Journal
assembling and testing software, green screen technology, and lighting intended to turn my home office into a mini broadcast studio (2014 is the year I try to learn to love video)
Canon 1D, ND400 filter, Hoya G filter, telephoto lens.
Now once again, dubious science is pushing pikas as another canary in the climate coal mine. the evidence has not supported the pikas demise, Stewart (2015) constructed a model that would and published their projections in Revisiting The Past To Foretell The Future: Summer Temperature And Habitat Area Predict Pika Extirpations In California . These researchers predict that by 2070 pikas will be extirpated from 39% to 88% of Californias historical sites. And once again the media is hyping that pikas are being pushed up the mountains to their doom.
And has this 3-month spell been unprecedented? Nope, not even remotely so, I am afraid. As I have been pointing out for the last few weeks, there was a much wetter period during the winter of 1929/30. But, not only that, it also turns out that there were wetter periods in 2001/01 and 1960/61.
The article is Small cars get poor marks in collision tests and reads
When a court decision leads to ?absurd results,? there are only two possibilities. One is that the court brought to light a flaw previously hidden in the statute. The other is that the court misread the statute.
The released material is not highly sensitive. So one wonders why the government bothered to redact it in the first placeand fought its release in court for over a year. Upon assuming office, Holdren's boss, President Obama, and his attorney general, Eric Holder, issued guidance telling agencies not to withhold information just because they can, or based on technicalities, and to err on the side of disclosure, rather than secrecy. As Holder once noted, "On his first full day in office, January 21, 2009, President Obama issued a memorandum to the heads of all departments and agencies on the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA). The President directed that FOIA "should be administered with a clear presumption: In the face of doubt, openness prevails.'"
Those would be the polar ice caps which have the fourth highest extent on record.
If a hypothesis does not agree with the data thats used to support it, then the hypothesis is flawed. According to the climate models used as marketing tools by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), only greenhouse gases can explain the warming over the past 30 years. If the IPCC had evaluated sea surface temperature data for that time period by breaking the data into logical subsets, theyd have discovered the warming can be explained naturally. Maybe some contributing authors/scientists/computer modelers do understand and they have elected not to express it.
Another sign is Central Europe refusing to warm further. Meteorologist Dominik Jung at Wetter.net here reports that Germanys 2013 year was the 2nd coldest in a decade. The mean temperature was only 0.4C over the 1961 1990 mean. Only 2010 was a bit colder.
The 2030 Agenda provides a handy blueprint for the kind of global structure the UN and its allies want to erect. Focusing on what it says are the areas of critical importance over the next 15 years, the document cites what can be called the UN's "Five Ps": people, planet, peace, prosperity, and partnership. A closer look at what it says under "planet," shows that behind 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development there really is an agenda. Thus, we are told:
Advantages: a) Appear more trustworthy, b) reduce error, c) reduces uncertainty in the mean results.
So how can we check this independently ourselves? We could use microwave satellite retrievals of temperature from the lowest few miles of the atmosphere. That's not exactly surface data, but the two are strongly connected. Most computer models indicate that the trend in the lower atmosphere ought to be just a little bit larger than the surface temperature trend.
It is baffling that newspapers and magazines have failed to publicize the increase in Canada's oil reserves, of more than 100 billion barrels, while rushing to cover one oil firm's negative reassessment of less than 6 billion barrels. Numerically speaking, the Alberta tar sands' numbers tower over the Shell statistics by almost 170 billion barrels.
The IPCC and other warmists rely heavily on computer models for the dire predictions of what will happen to our planet unless we all stop exhaling. It??s a pity then that the models are likely to be full of bugs. How badly might errors like these affect results? How about by 400%?
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOKANE WA JUN 9 2012
Another graph detailed the temperatures in America's corn belt since the year 1900. This one showed that climate models came nowhere close to the real temperatures and that more recent models were far and away hotter than the real temperature ever was.
leading to more crazy weather. I cant remember your words, but it came
This looks good at first blush, and the authors say that the GCM results (red) are ???consistent?? with the observations. However, closer examination reveals issues. What struck me immediately about their results is that the actual observations of both the shortwave and longwave anomalies show clear signs of overshoot. After being knocked down by the volcano, after 1994 they both come back higher than pre-eruption. This worked to quickly restore the pre-disturbance state.
And the researchers by their own admission can??t even fit GHG feedbacks into the Hadley cell migration equation successfully. It is just more evidence of uncertainty in the ???settled science?? of AGW.
* What might be the solutions; the way ahead, globally, nationally, and individually?
My personal reaction as a scientist is to be very thankful that I am not involved in the IPCC. I already feel duped by the IPCC (Ive written about this previously), I am glad that I was not personally used by the IPCC.
People live better and the environment is cleaner in free, prosperous societies. The people of the developing world are entitled to continue their advance into energy and economic self-sufficiency. How dare we propose to trap them in poverty and deny them the high standards of cleanliness, education, nutrition, healthcare, and energy we take for granted. Our prosperity is good for them as theirs is for us.
Astonishingly, the predictions have been adopted uncritically as the basis for local planning. This is equivalent to introducing new housing regulations for the heating and cooling of Australian dwellings based upon global average temperature. Well, now that we have learned about the unsuitable nature of its sea-level speculations, what else do we know about the IPCC? Does it have form?
prosperous international order. As President Obama put it in his Nobel Peace
While airlines can apply for free permits to cover CO2 emitted, these will likely fall short of requirements, and they will have to buy allowances in the market to make up any shortfall.
Despite acknowledged large gaps in understanding of the drivers and impacts of decadal climate change, the authors express confidence Earth is steadily warming due to increasing human greenhouse gases emissions. In response, Judith Curry writes, "Until these issues and knowledge gaps are sorted out, we don't have the basis for making the above statement with high confidence."
What the older statistical methods and the strict reliance on hard data and fancy mathematics have done is to create a system where there is too much certainty when making conclusions about complex events. We should all, always, take any result and realize that they are conditional on everything being just so. We should realize those just so conditions that obtained in the past might not in the future.
Global Tropical Cyclone Activity of the Past Five Thousand Years
"This new version of the party eschewed any serious effort to bargain and compromise with the opposition party, an essential activity within the American constitutional system."
Iran announced this week that its made its first oil discovery in the Caspian Sea in more than 100 years. The semiofficial Fars News Agency reports the find, in ultradeep waters, may hold the equivalent of 7 percent of the countrys known national reserves.
Hansen's Teflon credibility wasn't even scratched after the August revelation that since 2000 he and his fellow scientists had been incorrectly crunching the data from about 1,200 ground weather stations that NASA uses to take the country's annual average temperature -- and which the unquestioning mainstream media used as "proof" the country has been getting hotter every year since 1998.
To address global warming, we're going to do something that may surprise the save-the-planet camp: burn more fossil fuel less efficiently. Big oil will prosper.
Here, social progress ? great leaps forward that have provided us with material wellbeing, longer life spans, more leisure time and opportunities to pursue individual interests ? are reconstituted as ?pollution?. Man?s interventions in nature are regarded as simply corrosive, hubristic acts of nature-murder that are as abhorrent as the concerted, state-sanctioned extermination of human beings.
RES now stands to lose an estimated $45 million in federal stimulus funding. "This new regulation to a degree pulls the rug out from under us," said Scott Piscitello, vice president of development.
The only way Americans will be protected against the EPA's attack on our economy will be a Congress controlled by the Republican Party and a Republican President that will support the oversight that is needed and the reversal of its vast output of regulations. It will have to do this as well for NOAA, NASA, and other governmental departments and agencies that, until recently, spewed forth all manner of "data" supporting the global warming hoax.
Carbonic acid does not however make the water more acidic easily. Don??t forget that pH measures the concentration of hydrogen ions in solution. So of the 1.2*10^-3 moles of carbonic acid/ mole of CO2/liter only 2.5*10^-4 moles/mole/mole of hydrogen Ion are produced. This forms the bicarbonate Ion.
> >> >>variability to the continent as a whole or on particularly vulnerable
(h/t: Benny Peiser of the Global Warming Policy Foundation)
Leutkemeyer: The international panel the last year or two has been funded at the rate of about $12.5 million per year. The President has it in his 2012 budget at $13 million a year.This group has been in the headlines for their activities with regard to how they are trying to tinker with the data they put out. Why would we want to fund a group of folks who are nefarious and give us incorrect information? Its beyond me.
We sure would like to know what curative drugs hes got in mind. We arent aware of any drugs that cure cancer. And if Big Pharma has stopped selling cheap drugs that dont work, well, whats the problem? They dont work.
(Photo Stephen Orsillo) The record-shattering snow that has shut down Boston's public transit system threatens to white out a global warming forum organized by Massachusetts Senate President Stanley Rosenberg (D, Amherst).
if we loose the chance to make climate change a reality to people in the
On borders, the parties have been within striking distance of a deal for nearly a decade. Even allowing for the sensitivity of the right-to-return issue and its ability to blow up negotiations, it is not too much to hope that a compromise can be found if the right atmosphere prevails in talks.
In fact, thanks to its reliance on natural gas that covers around 60% of the electricity generation, the country is among the least carbon-intensive countries in Europe, and yet it has to meet goals that are comparable with those of other, more carbon-intensive countries.
WASHINGTONIn an unexpected judicial turnaround, the Supreme Court this week reversed its 2000 ruling in the landmark case of Bush v. Gore, stripping George W. Bush of his earlier political victory, and declaring Albert Arnold Gore the 43rd president of the United States of America. The court, which called its original decision to halt manual recounts in Florida a ruling made in haste, voted unanimously on Wednesday in favor of the 2000 Democratic nominee. Gore will serve as commander in chief from Dec. 10 to Jan. 20.
The Supreme Court, which jealously guards against any hint of a religious symbol on public property lest it establish a religion, has gone a long way toward making the Earth Cult the official religion of the United States.
August 2015 ENSO Update Another Westerly Wind Burst in Late July Should Help El Nio Evolve
We are almost half way through his 60 year, 1,000 mm forecast and sea level has risen zero mm near Canberra. Only 1,000 mm left to go in the next 30 years.
Based on a lengthy review of all of this, and notwithstanding the court's admission that it "does not have independent expertise in this area," the court concludes that existing Dutch climate policy constitutes a negligent breach of a duty of care owed the plaintiffs and all Dutch citizens.
But there have been ups and downs. For example, there was cooling for several hundred years after the medieval warm period through to about 1900. Then there was warming until about 1945 followed by cooling through until 1975-76. The United Nations IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) predicted in 1990 that there would be continuous warming well into this century driven by rising levels of carbon dioxide. But in fact there has been cooling again over the last decade.
Among the studies not cited by the EPA are two that examine the feedback issue empirically and find support for a conclusion opposite to that made by the GCMs (see Lindzen, p.4; Carlin, pp.13-27). It looks like the models have the wrong sign on the feedbackit is not positive but negative, which reduces any warming by carbon dioxide rather than amplifying it. In short, carbon dioxide may not be an air pollutant after all.
$25,000 to evaluate indoor air interventions to reduce diesel particulate matter in West Oakland, Ca.
This situation is compounded, in the present example, by the absurdly lax standards applied to papers supportive of climate alarm. In the present example, there existed an earlier paper (Lindzen and Choi, 2009) , that had been subjected to extensive criticism. The fact that no opportunity was provided to us to respond to such criticism was, itself, unusual and disturbing. The paper we had submitted to the PNAS was essentially our response which included the use of additional data and the improvement and correction of our methodology.
Some Senatorswonderhow they can trust Gina McCarthy to be a straight shooter as EPA administrator given the agencys FOIA failures , reliance on secret data in rulemakings , and use of private email accounts to conduct official business . These issues are significant but so is the agencys trickery on greenhouse gas regulation of stationary sources.
A new report from Scotland found that renewable energy kills 3.7 traditional jobs for every "green" job it creates. Wind power mandates also cost British energy consumers an extra $1.8 billion in higher electricity costs in 2009-2010. Rebellion is in the air, and belief in dangerous manmade global warming has plummeted.
London, England. Three years ago today .
CYBERSECURITY - Credit Card Hackers Strike at Barnes & Noble
Obama is now using BP's oil spill to push the global-warming legislation that BP had lobbied for.
Judith LEAN: Variations in Solar Irradiance and Climate
"There is not a single passage in that book that I disagree with, or would change."
Climate change is different. President Obamas plan to cut U.S. carbon-dioxide emissions from electricity plants by 32% (from 2005 levels) by 2030 would cut global emissions by about 2%. By that time, according to Energy Information Administration data analyzed by Heritage Foundation statistician Kevin Dayaratna, the carbon plan could cost the U.S. up to $1 trillion in lost GDP. The measures needed to decarbonize world energy are going to be vastly more expensive. So we had better be sure that we are not exaggerating the problem.
By the way, when is Tom C going to formally publish his roughly 1500 year
Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.
The sea surface temperatures in that NINO3.4 region warm and cool directly in response to the El Nio and La Nia events, so the swings in temperature there are quite large, much greater than the variations in the other datasets well illustrate. To accommodate the differences, the monthly values of the NINO3.4 data are multiplied by a common factor to reduce the variations. That simple process is called scaling. Ive also shifted the NINO3.4 data back in time in one graph to better align the wiggles in the two variables. That was done to account for the time lag between the changes in temperature in the NINO3.4 region and the responses of the Rest-of-the-World sea surface temperatures. The scaled NINO3.4 sea surface temperatures are the purple curves in the following graphs.
Congress considers legislation changing the rules for union organizing.
Carlin's internal research report conclusions were ignored with an explanation that: "The administrator and the administration has decided to move forward on endangerment, and your comments do not help the legal or policy case for this decision."
spreading around their regions: "they sure do have a lot of money to throw around." Mann noted that it was an observation others used to make about the United
Climate change contrarian: How green hysteria will hit the US
In both studies, we can certainly see evidence that extreme precipitation events are on the rise. But in both cases, when we explore just a little deeper into the story, we find no evidence of any unusual upward trend in the frequency of extreme precipitation events. The more we learn, the more skeptical we become.
"Here, we reconstruct the last 1,000 years of central Greenland surface temperature from isotopes of N2 and Ar in air bubbles in an ice core. This technique provides constraints on decadal to centennial temperature fluctuations. We found that northern hemisphere temperature and Greenland temperature changed synchronously at periods of 20 years and 40100 years. This quasi-periodic multi-decadal temperature fluctuation persisted throughout the last millennium, and is likely to continue into the future.....The data show clear evidence of the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age in agreement with documentary evidence."
*Brace for Impacts, editorial (Nature, Vol. 508, April 3, 2014, p. 7) reports the release of IPCC WG-II report. Oddly, it doesnt mention the release of the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), another sign of blatant bias, but oh well. The editorial repeats the highlights of the IPCC report without any critical thought, an unfortunate example of news release journalism common in the environment field. It ends with the obligatory call for more funding for researchers. The editors conflict of interest is so obvious it is blinding to everyone except the editors, and I suppose, and many of the researchers buy subscriptions to Nature.
Lindzen thinks the true number is closer to -1, which is similar to the number I backed into from temperature history over the last 100 years . This would imply that feedback actually works to reduce the net effect of greenhouse warming, from a sensitivity of 1.2 to one something like 0.6C per doubling.
More & more research results clearly indicate that solar activity has an impact on how the climate varies over time
States, Amtrak vying for high-speed train money:
4. Has the earth's temperature increased over the past two decades?
And tell me what other area of science finds it necessary to take pathetic polls on a "consensus."
Despite the disappointing decision yesterday, it would be well to remember that the real damage was done in the Supreme Courts 5-4 Massachusetts decision, where EPA was found to have authority to regulate GHGsunder the CAA so long as it determined that GHGs endanger the public health and welfare.
Fake news!? Fake news!? I'll tell you about fake news! For decades, scientists like me have been drowning in it.
Australias antarctic runway melting | Central Midlands & Coastal ...