Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Pie-man Mark Lynas said he was unable to ignore Lomborgs comments on climate change. I wanted to put a Baked Alaska in his smug face, said Lynas, in solidarity with the native Indian and Eskimo people in Alaska who are reporting rising temperatures, shrinking sea ice and worsening effects on animal and bird life.
Unfair might be taking a statement I made in that post (on May 11 2012 note the date), pointing out that Briffa et als results would be different from what McIntyre had put up (on May 6 2012 ) (as the figure below demonstrates), and then using a calculation made on May 15 2012 to claim I was wrong .
One company, American Electric Power, admits that its primary motivation for joining a business group that has "moderate" views on global warming is to be able to influence future standards. "Once you realize that you can't kill this thing, then it's incumbent upon you to try to be a player in the process of shaping policies," said Dale Heydlauff, the utility's vice president of environmental affairs.
A survey of more than 3,000 scientists found that the vast majority believe humans cause global warming.
According to the computer simulations, the temperature of the earth should have increased by at least 1 C since the beginning of the century because of increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases. In fact, the temperature actually increased by only 0.5 C, and, as noted above, much of that increase occurred prior to 1940, before some 80% of the CO2 had entered the atmosphere. Only a few tenths of a degree at most could have been caused by increases in atmospheric CO2. That is 3-4 times less than the computer models predicted. If the predictions exaggerated the warming to date by a factor of 3-4, they are unreliable for projecting the future climate change.
We are told that all argument about global warming must end. We must have faith!
The New York Times on December 27, 2012, featured an OpEd with the headline : Bundle Up, It's Global Warming
For example, wild ocean fish stocks are being seriously depleted. Even within national territorial waters, restraints on over-fishing have often been eroded over time. Curbs on over-pumping of oil and gas resources have sometimes worked, but often they have only done so after a great deal of economic waste had already occurred.
In the grown-up world, whenever important decisions and large amounts of money are involved conflict-of-interest mechanisms are firmly in place. . . well into the 21st century saw no need to even discuss conflict-of-interest.
CEI Expert Available to Comment: Policy Analyst Marc Scribner on what's wrong with concession projects.
There are two separate questions here: (1) defining events and estimating their probability of occurring and (2) estimating what will happen given those events occur. Going through both of the steps is called computing a risk or decision analysis . This is an enormously broad subject which we wont do more than touch on, only to show where more uncertainty comes in.
Global warming is the biggest threat to our future health. This isn't a message that has yet seeped into the public consciousness. It isn't a message that most doctors and nurses think is relevant to health. But it's time that health professionals stood on the front lines of political debate to explain why climate change is the most serious danger to our wellbeing, even to our survival. The threat of climate change is with us now.
The Affordable Power Alliance held a press conference on Capitol Hill on Tuesday to release a report on the potential economic impacts of the EPAs Endangerment Finding on low income groups and minorities. The report shows that higher energy prices will disproportionately harm poorer people. Thats because they already pay a higher percentage of their incomes on energy than better-off people. Blacks and Hispanics will also suffer major job losses as the result of higher energy prices. As a result of paying more for energy and job losses, the report predicts that poverty rates for African Americans and Hispanics will increase by 20% and 22% respectively.
Abraham then trots out various papers he found in his Google Scholar search, one of which says that the world is warming because of human activities: but that was not the point made in my slide. My point was that not a single one of the 539 papers searched by Schulte had provided evidence for catastrophe.
The sharp rise in UK temperatures, which effectively began in the 1980s, is widely known about, but, (and I may be wrong here), has never been satisfactorily explained. Indeed, I am not sure anybody from the Met Office, Hadley Centre, etc has ever seriously attempted to explain it.
After the El Nio, the warm leaves the East Pacific and it winds upyou guessed itin the area weve been calling the Rest-of-the-World. And through phenomena called teleconnections, that leftover warm water causes the warming of land surface temperatures and the temperatures of other ocean basins, like the North Atlantic, that are not directly and immediately impacted by the leftover warm water. In simple terms, the leftover warm water counteracts the effect of the La Nia on temperatures outside of the tropical Pacific.
A quote from a team member from a developing country: The team members from the developing countires (including myself) were made to feel welcome and accepted as part of the team. In reality we were out of our intellectual depth as meaningful contributors to the process.
" at the heart of the science of climate change and the orthodoxy that recent rises in temperature are largely man-made."
In 2000, Britains Met Office said cold winters would be a thing of the past, and children just arent going to know what snow is. The 2010 and 2012 winters were the coldest and snowiest in centuries. In 2013, Met Office scholars said the coming winter would be extremely dry; the forecast left towns, families and government agencies totally unprepared for the immense rains and floods that followed.
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for a stabilization of greenhouse gases below "dangerous" levels. But, states Azar and Rodhe, no one really knows what that level is since the potential impacts from any given level of greenhouse gas is uncertain. The IPCC has estimated that a doubling of CO2, for instance, would lead to a 1.5 degree to 4.5 degree Celsius rise in temperature, a rather large range of uncertainty. Because of the uncertainty, Azar and Rodhe argue that scientists must participate in the debate or "decision makers and social scientists, like economists, in an even more difficult position."
Additionally, and besides refusing to commit itself to any binding target, modelling by American and Chinese researchers suggest that "business as usual" will lead to China's emissions reaching a peak by around 2030 in any event, as a result of current urbanisation, demographic and energy trends.
Back to the facts. And when comparing the left axis of both charts, it becomes abundantly clear that all those small changes done on a monthly basis by NOAA starts accumulating to become ever larger changes over a few years. Obviously, Obamas team believes in man-made warming, especially when they simply accomplish it on their PCs.
In an op-ed touting their Climate Stewardship Act that appeared in the San Francisco Chronicle August 1, Senators McCain and Lieberman made an extraordinary claim about the deleterious effects of greenhouse gases. They asserted, "According to a United Nations' study, every ton of greenhouse gas emitted into the atmosphere costs each American up to $160and we are emitting billions of tons each year."
The Heartland Institute recently received a collection of letters written to us by 6th graders in a California public school condemning us for not believing in global warming.The nine letters, apparently written by about 25 students (teamwork, you know ) reveal the students were all quite expert on the subject, having read "10 articles" on the effects of air pollution on fetuses, natural disasters quadrupling in the past 10 years, and "Global Warming Denier Group Funded by Big Oil Hosting Climate Change Denial Conference."The letters collected here were sent to us by Michael Steria, an earth science teacher at David A. Brown Middle School.
By Ian Plimer ??? ???Read this book. Read it carefully. Then read it again. Open your mind to theories that challenge orthodoxy, or you become nothing more than a shrill evangelist, jumping up and down on the spot, yelling ???LA LA LA LA LA!?? whilst holding a finger firmly in each ear.?? -Reader??s review
I disagreed with Hantemirovs comments in an inline comment. Although this was only a blog article, I provided considerable detail on the calculation, including turnkey code to generate all graphics and results cited in the post. In addition, I have a good record of responding to requests for clarification. So I didnt and dont accept Hantemirovs criticism. That the later Briffa et al 2013 Yamal chronology was similar to my calculation is further support that I had replicated the most important ingredients of their methodology. Be that as it may, the first part of the sentence reported Hantemirovs intervention and is factually correct.
So 11% of worlds land ice shrinking Front page headlines. 89% of worlds land ice growing. Silence.
When the Board voted in December to amend teaching standards to allow students to consider both sides in the climate debate, global warming pressure groups were apoplectic.
I was also struck by how the community supported by the local nongovernmental organisation, GSK has developed a range of strategies and activities to cope with longer floods, higher floodwater levels and the erosion that each year washes away more and more of their crop and homestead land into the nearby Padma River. There was no drama here. And I was deeply affected by the industrious positive way the people of Manikganj District meet these challenges and carry on with daily life.
Lord Monckton was a credentialed representative to the Copenhagen conference this month, but upon arrival learned he and other "non-believers" were dis-invited. He was struck and knocked to the ground by Danish police as he attempted to enter.
There are good reasons to doubt that the EPA understands how a modern power system works. Such are the fruits of regulatory zealotry and the haste driven by the prospect that the next administration might place a greater emphasis on economic growth.
Thus, as if by an invisible hand, each individual is led through pursuit of his own personal gain and betterment to simultaneously improve the conditions of others in society. Or as Adam Smith famously stated:
* Climate changes without any help from us has for millions of years and as we can expect, always will with Ice Ages occurring during about 90 percent of the time.
A national exchange would be the best way to do thisRepublicans are right that forcing consumers to buy plans within a given state stifles competition and leads to wide variation in price and coverage; at the same time, a national exchange could reduce or eliminate the kinds of wide variation in protection for consumers, including many with none, that exist in states.
Cleaning the nation's air and water is a public health activity, but denying Americans access to the nation's vast reservoirs of coal, oil, and natural gas is an attack on the nation's economic growth and a denial of the energy it requires to recover from the 2008 financial crisis, providing jobs and keeping energy costs under control.
After all, much of the abuse that is hurled across the climate divide comes from those who like to believe that it is they who are dealing in a currency of proper science bias and ideology is what the opposition does. Hence the vitriol aimed at Bjrn Lomborg over the years.
Most regional industry relies on adding value to the products of primary industries smelters, refineries, processing plants, cement plants, sawmills, flour mills, abattoirs and rail and port infrastructure. These facilities require cheap reliable electricity, which will never be supplied by green energy toys.
Is Cycle 24 the Beginning of a Dalton-Like Minimum? M. Lindholm Nielsen and H. Kjeldsen
CO 2 is a greenhouse gas and the warmistas blame it for man-made warming. They call it the greenhouse effect. Inconveniently, physicist R.W.Wood disproved the existence of any such effect . In 1909 .
In closing, Lauer and Hamilton indicate there is "only very modest improvement in the simulated cloud climatology in CMIP5 compared with CMIP3," and they sadly state that even this slightest of improvements "is mainly a result of careful model tuning rather than an accurate fundamental representation of cloud processes in the models."
Last October, the Daily Mail (London) announced that temperature data from the United Kingdoms Meteorological Office showed no global warming for 16 years. In December, an advance chart from the upcoming Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change showed a divergence between model projections and actual global temperatures. In January of this year, the Met Office revised its forecast of temperatures down to almost no increase over the next five years.
I just returned from the dinner in the Society of Fellows which was fun, after a long time of having no such dinners. Andy Strominger confirmed my hypothesis that he is the center of the Universe if the metric is defined by the collaboration distance that we recently discussed on this blog. Several years ago, he was actually the #2 but it is more or less guaranteed that he became the #1.
The previous record in Union de Reyes was set on February 18, 1996, at 2.5 degrees. The absolute record in the town for any month of the year was also one degree, and happened on January 21, 1971.
You've probably heard about carbon taxes on automobiles and power plants, but how about on cows and pigs? Well believe it or not, if the EPA has its way, farmers who own more than 25 dairy cows, 50 beef cattle, or 200 hogs may be taxed between $20 and $175 for each animal because of their alleged contribution to global warming. Yes, you heard it right, in an effort to lower methane emissions, which is a greenhouse gas, the EPA has proposed taxing farmers for their carbon output, which could cost the owner of a modest-sized ranch somewhere around $30,000 per year. Since farmers say this will push many of them out of business, one can understand why they think this tax, even more than their pig pens, simply stinks.
NCDC accomplishes theirfeat of destroying the US temperature record, through a phenomenal hockey stick of data tampering- which cools the past by almost two degrees relative to the current year.
Our temperature records are very short, and a 16-year period of warming ended about the time today's high school graduates were born. The President could just as accurately said there hasn't been any warming since Bill Clinton was President and that one of his own agencies released data this month showing the United States has cooled slightly over the last decade , but that didn't fit his political agenda.
2016 Democratic Party Platform, July 21, 2016: https://www.heartland.org/policy-documents/2016-democratic-party-platform
"A combination of strong thunderstorms, followed by violent and destructive winds, will make for one of the Midwest's most dangerous storms in 70 years."
The Senate passes the Restoring American Financial Stability Act.
Reagan understood that the desire to put Americans into space was part the frontier spirit that had spurred creativity and innovation since the country's founding, and that historian Frederick Jackson Turner argued was the fuel of American exceptionalism.
To recapitulate, progressive thought is only different from Marxist thought in the justification of the means given their jointly agreed up ultimate endthe differences resolve to their science or ours . Morals just gets in the way.
All the while, the protesters were outsideat first pressing their signs against the windows (until the blinds were closed) and then shouting through a megaphone in a failed attempt to disrupt the meeting.
Dr. Roy Spencer, principal research scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, says both sides of the debate use climate models. The global-warming believers, he says, use models that include both warming and cooling, and water vapor evaporating from the ocean surface.
"Tropical rainforests are also important because they supply a great variety of commercial and noncommercial products: timber (some highly prized woods such as teak, mahogany, and rosewood), fuel wood, fruits, vegetables, nuts and spices, medicines (a quarter of all medically-active substances come from tropical plants , and around 70% of the 3,000 plants identified by the U.S. National Cancer Institute as having anti-cancer properties are tropical rain forest species." (de Miranda p.156)
Needless to say, prominent alarmist scientists and the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have not taken this view. They argue instead that the planet was cooler during both Roman times and the Medieval warm period.
?I never thought I would see this in my lifetime,? he said, sadness and anger competing on his face. ?The last time young people politicized and indoctrinated by the State broke up a meeting of their opponents here in Copenhagen by chanting mindless, repetitive slogans was during the Nazi occupation of Denmark during the Second World War.?
All of the post-1975 years of alleged CO2 effects on temperatures would still be included.
Thanks to Joe Herr, Cary Ellis, Bill Sellers, David Swineford, John V. Kampen, Laurent, Peter Lamb, AtSimon, George Fitzsimmons, Dr F Kirk Millward, AK Raven, Del Hilber and Steven Woodcock for these links
I think this is pretty remarkable stuff: said his energy policy would put caps on the emission of greenhouse gases, generating billions of dollars from polluters who are releasing carbons, and then investing that money in wind, solar, biodiesel, and other green energies . Addressing climate change and capping greenhouse gases are going to lead to a spike in electricity costs ... were actually going to have to provide some help to low-income and fixed-income individuals to cover higher electricity prices on the front end.
He has thought long and hard about being the un-Bush and realizes that he strayed from that mantra twice: Once in aiding in the ouster of Libyan dictator Muammar al-Qaddafi, and once in threatening military action against Syria's Bashar al-Assad for his use of chemical weapons. In the first case, the president clearly blames both Hillary Clinton and America's much-disdained allies in Europe: " didn't work," Obama complains. "When I go back and I ask myself what went wrong, there's room for criticism, because I had more faith in the Europeans, given Libya's proximity, being invested in the follow-up."
In the latter category, for example, the acknowledgment that the uptake of CO2 by the land and oceans is very poorly understood is tantamount to saying that it is not possible to predict with any confidence the future concentration levels of CO2 in the atmosphere. It certainly leaves open the possibility that the uptake of CO2 by land and oceans will be considerably higher than the extreme 25% rate projected by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (it is currently 50%). If that happened it would mean that concentrations of CO2 (and other greenhouse gases) would reach supposedly dangerous levels at a significantly later date than the alarmists are predicting and temperatures would rise less.
A paper published last week in the journal Climate of the Past examines the climate of central China over the past 1800 years using two different types of proxies. The paper finds higher temperatures and precipitation were present during the Medieval Warming Period (960-1100 AD) than at the end of the 20th century. This paper adds to the published work of 986 scientists who have documented that the Medieval Warming Period was as hot or hotter than the present and was a global phenomenon. This study also shows both the rate and magnitude of the rise in temperature from the year ~ 700- 880 AD were much greater than over a comparable period including the 20th century.
Then there is the issue of official press releases, and the propensity of too many in the media to recycle PR claims with little or no scrutiny.
Alternative Headline: Guy wastes power to protest wasting power:
McIntyre ends by assigning readers little homework. The answers arent that tough.
Despite Real Climates predictable take on the situation, many long-time students of Antarctic climate change ( including usns here at WCR ) yawned. It has been known for decades that there is a net warming in Antarctic surface temperature that began during the International Geophysical Year in 1957. However, what is also well known, is that the vast majority of the observed warming in Antarctica took place from the late 1950s through the early 1970s and that since thenduring a period going on 40 years nowthere has been very little net temperature change over Antarctica taken as a whole.
Most likely American Thinker readers are aware that the Heartland Institute held its Fourth International Conference on Climate Change earlier in the week May 16 18. I'm still feeling electrified from the impact the event had on me.
The looming prospect of an era of litigation-driven Clean Air Act regulation is an important subtext of the debate over the Waxman-Markey cap-and-trade bill. Proponents are pursuing a legislative extortion strategy. Their not-so-subtle message: Support the bill (which precludes greenhouse gas regulation under the PSD, NAAQS, Title V, and HAP programs, although not under NSPS and Title II), or we'll sic EPA and the eco-litigation lobby on the economy.
Soil particulate organic carbon content was increased under atmospheric CO 2 enrichment, as was the potential for the sequestration of a greater proportion of unstable carbon. Also increased were the amounts of dissolved carbon and humic and fulvic acids present in the soil solution. Elevated ozone levels tended to produce the opposite effects; but they were usually overpowered by the effects of elevated CO 2 . What it means
My suspicion is it doesn't work. Eco-activists are likely offended by the ad, whether because it mocks them or because it comes too near the mark of what life would be like in a society that heeds Al Gore's injunction to make "rescue of the environment" the "central organizing principle for civilization." On the other hand, people who resent officious bureaucrats may remember little about the ad except that Audi has something to do with "green police."
Scientistssay that disappearing Antarctic sea ice threatens penguins.
Should you spot a Tesla electric car on the road, see if the driver is smiling. He should be smiling at you for contributing $7,500 to the purchase price of his luxury automobile.
IPCC Obsession With Temperature Distorts Climate Change Science
Eight hundredths of a degree? These people are hyperventilating over eight hundredths of a degree? I spent eighteen buck to read their !@#$%^ paper for eight hundredths of a degree? That trivial change in forcing is supposed to have ??? played a role in the Younger Dryas cooling event?? ? ?? I weep for the death of science.
As the temperature increasing effect of atmospheric CO2 is known to diminish logarithmically with increasing concentration, these notes clarify the actual amount of warming that might result from additional CO2 released into the atmosphere by man-kind and the temperature reduction impact of any policy actions to control CO2 emissions.
Keystone XL Pipeline Approval taking Five Times Longer than Average
If the Met Office is right, and temperatures rise to record levels in the next 5 five years, then the sceptics will have no-where to hide. If the Met Office is wrong, and in the next few years we have not exceeded 1998 temperature levels, then this would cause big questions to be asked remember their simulations rule out zero trends for 15 years or more.