Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
When we talk about the evolution of the Earth's temperature, we are talking about the increase or decrease. The simple question "is the temperature rising?" is too ill-defined because there isn't just one temperature (consider many places on the globe and above the globe) and there isn't just one time scale (and one particular position in time) in which the question may be addressed. All these details have to be added to the question.
100 Years Ago, The Father Of Global Warming Said Antarctica Would Have Millions Of People
Besides an overall growth of nesting Elegant Terns in Isla Rasa and southern California colonies as a result of successful conservation efforts, since year 2000 whenever Elegant Terns have confronted poor oceanographic conditions, indicated by high SST (>1.0C) anomalies in the Midriff , breeding pairs have abandoned Rasa, a behavior that is further augmented by high sardine fishing effort and landings in the Midriff. This oscillatory migration dynamics between distant nesting sites suggests that Elegant Terns can make fast decisions and dynamically adapt to rapid changes in the global environment. The adequate maintenance of a healthy fish community in both the Gulf of California and the Pacific is an important priority that will help support healthy seabird communities, as well as healthy marine ecosystems in general and sustainable fisheries.
The IPCC freely admits not knowing which scenario is most likely. But we should bear in mind theres NO EVIDENCE that these amounts of CO2 in the atmosphere will cause any harmful effects. Theyre guessing. Theres no knowing whether 1200 ppm of CO2 (three times what is there now) will produce 0.52 to 0.98 m of sea-level rise, or whether 380 ppm will produce only 0.26 to 0.55 m.
8.	When the signal (results) is in the range of the noise (background natural variability) the reliability of the research is compromised by the signal to noise confusion. In studies with small effects like the US EPA air pollution premature death studies, confirmation bias (also called tunnel vision) energized by intellectual passion and commitment to a political agenda produce studies that do not justify the policies proposed and pursued or the regulatory regimes imposed. P 84.
There are currently 85,870 climate change analysts in the United States, with 4,840 new climate change analyst job openings created each year.
> >> techniques I believe we can present the range of future climate
Note to Skydragons: Exercises such as Postma that use (or misuse) the planetary energy balance equationcannot disprove the existence of the Earths greenhouse effect. If you want to disprove the existence of thegreenhouse effect, you need some sort of alternative explanation for a whole lot of fundamental physicsthat explains the infrared emission spectra as measured at the Earths surface and high above the emittingportion of the atmosphere (see Pierrehumbert ). With regards to the magnitude of the Earths greenhouse effect, for a given atmosphericthermodynamic state and gaseous composition, the clear-sky (cloudless) radiative fluxes areaccurately calculated using sophisticated radiative transfer models that have been validated extensively bythe Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program (see this previous thread ).
Not only mountain tops were covered by a layer of snow during the night. In regions of Liberec, Karlovy Vary, Hradec Krlove, Pardubice and st snow fell even at lower elevations.
The reduction in climate pollution even as Congress failed to act on climate change brings America more than halfway towards Barack Obama's target of cutting emissions by 17% from 2005 levels over the next decade, the Bloomberg analysts said.
Thirty years from now, we will probably not be interested in today?s specific computer forecasts, but we may have lost our faith in science, a deeper and, to me, a more important problem.
"The future of climate change legislation in the United States could rest in California, where voters will decide on Nov. 2 whether to pass Proposition 23, a ballot measure that would roll back the state's ambitious greenhouse gas emissions targets. With some polls showing voters in California split over the issue, former Vice President Al Gore released a video today explaining his opposition."
Long ago I collected a few observations about the fall of Communism that I thought ought to be immortal, but that I've hardly seen mentioned in recent years. Here's my attempt to resurrect them.
The NOAA chief said climate change is already raising sea levels, lengthening growing seasons, prompting earlier spring snowmeltsand shifts in river flows, causing more intense drought and increasing the incidence of extreme weather.
Andrew Montford draws attention to another paper just published by Gavin Schmidt, et al., that the failure of the earth to warm is one incredible, incredible coincidence. From the preview: Climate models projected stronger warming over the past 15 years than has been seen in observations. Conspiring factors of errors in volcanic and solar inputs, representations of aerosols, and El Nio evolution, may explain most of the discrepancy. See links under Un-Science or Non-Science?
ANDREW DARBY AUSTRALIAS $46 million Antarctic airstrip is melting, leaving the government scrambling to find a new air link to the frozen continent.
But up on Capitol Hill, there appears to be progressbipartisan progress, eventoward changing our immigration laws to reflect current and emerging realities.
Researchers are keen on maintaining a record of the trends into the future. For one reason, plants act as a carbon dioxide sink, and shifting plant productivity is linked to shifting levels of the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Also, stresses on plant growth could challenge food production.
So given never let a crisis to to waste it is a very short stroll over to manufacture a crisis as needed. The thing that surprised me was how many folks some of these videos had that watched them, and how many videos there were. Large chunks of the world culture are clearly quite willing to embrace the Conspiracy Conjecture. (Conjecture as it isnt even a hypothesis, never mind a thesis or theory. Hypo meaning below or less than a thesis. Theory being generally accepted as true.)
President Bush makes access to affordable energy the focus of his Labor Day speech.
1) I agree with the Burger and Cubasch results and conclusions in general. Indeed, all NH reconstructions published to date gives a qualitative information only: For example, MWP and the Current Warming are warmer than LIA. But it is impossible to conclude with a certainty: either CW or MWP is warmer. It is even more so as concern centennial and decadal variations because these latter variations usually are of regional character.
The most recent eruptions of Mount Hood the tallest peak in Oregon took place about 220 years ago and 1,500 years ago, according to Professor Adam Kent of Oregon State University and Associate Professor Kari Cooper of University of California-Davis.
Indeed, these fears were justified. The twin totems of liberal progressivismlofty ambitions and impatiencehave been on full display when liberal progressives discuss the administration's decisions. Paul Krugman decries a too-small stimulus, a bill whose near-trillion-dollar price tag shocked middle-class Americans. Jon Stewart tells the president that he has been too timid. While most polls show that Americans view President Obama as too liberal, liberal progressives view him as not liberal enough.
To the extent that the recent literature produces a more accurate estimate of the equilibrium climate sensitivity than does the climate model average, it means that the projections of future climate change given by both the IPCC and NCA are, by default, some 40% too large (too rapid) and the associated (and described) impacts are gross overestimates.
We agree with them on this point; for their work must also imply that it does not disprove the existence of a slowly-evolving non -anthropogenic warming signal, such as whatever it is that drives the well-established millennial-scale cycling of earth's climate that has alternately brought the planet into and out of the Roman Warm Period, the Dark Ages Cold Period, the Medieval Warm Period, the Little Ice Age and the initial phase of the Current Warm Period, which phenomenon appears to have operated over the eons , throughout glacial and interglacial periods alike (Oppo et al ., 1998; McManus et al ., 1999).
Strategic considerations aside, there is an additional reason for Global NATO to get associated with the Thousand Ship Navy. Hard as it is to remember today, there was a time when NATO captured the imagination of Western audiences: Until the mid-sixties, in fact, the prospect of an Atlantic Union was seen in Europe as the wave of the future, while the idea of a European Union was associated mainly with coal, steel, and the standardization of electric plugs.34 Today, hard as they try, the 700 million people of the West can't really bring themselves to get exited when the "deliverables" of NATO Summits amount to the purchase of three C-17s? If that is NATO's level of ambition these days, no wonder that even the EU is beginning to look good. NATO will require nothing less than a Thousand Ship Navy if it is to recapture the imagination of public opinion.
Early next week, the Environmental Protection Agency is expected to finalize the crown jewel of the president's Climate Action Plan, a suite of regulations to control greenhouse gases from the electricity sector, including:
John Berlau: Obama is right to praise Congress for passing "part of" his American Jobs Act, because Congress passed the right part. The modest but significant deregulatory provisions for startup and emerging growth companies. The Jumpstart Our Business Startups (JOBS) Act that Obama signed in April exempts newly listed companies from some onerous Sarbanes-Oxley and Dodd-Frank provisions for five years. We've seen a slight uptick in initial public offerings as a result. May we build on this bipartisan deregulation.
Whatever CRUs original purpose in constructing the 2006 regional chronology, one feels confident that it was not constructed merely as an illustration of the tradeoff between variance and bias. SupMat 9 then more or less concedes that the sites in the 2006 regional chronology meet the common signal test of Briffa et al 2008, but adduce arguments against their inclusion that are nowhere in evidence in Briffa et al 2008:
CRUs False Claims about Advocacy and Heavy Promotion
UCSF Chancellor Rejects Narrow View of Conflicts of InterestGreg Conko's post on Medical Progress Today
Advocates of immediate precautionary actions often state there is nearly unanimous agreement among scientists that the globe is warming at an unacceptably rapid rate and that society is to blame. But the claim of a scientific consensus on the causes of global warming is not supportable. Consider these two points.
Darwin, say what? How could Charles Darwin, whose On the Origin of Species was published in 1859, and who died in 1882, have anything to do with the 1929 science of the Big Bang Theory? Well, in 1925 a high school science teacher, John Scopes was tried by the State of Tennessee for violation of the states, Butler Act. Yes, John had dared to teach evolution to his students. He was acquitted in a nationally publicized trial.
All of them need to be in the same folder, because the CO2 and CERES.R file calls the setup file, which loads the data files and the function file. If youve downloaded the CERES 13 year file, it is unchanged, no need to reload. Open the CERES Setup.R file to see the names of all of the datafiles loaded, and open the CERES Functions.R file for functions and constants.
That's in line with what President Obama said when he was running for President ("Under my plan of a cap and trade system, electricity rates would necessarily skyrocket."), but a lot less than what EPA and the White House have been saying about the Waxman-Markey bill.
Yet, the climate scientists who prepared the 5 th Assessment Report for the IPCC create illustrations like their SPM.10 (my Figure 1), which amusingly use climate models as proof that past global warming was caused by carbon dioxide emissions and that global temperatures will continue to warm in response to future CO2 emissions. The climate scientists unwavering belief that carbon dioxide drives global warming, despite the climate models clearly showing otherwise, is evidence of their delusions about CO2 or their need to misrepresent their models (for any number of reasons). Personally, I think its a combination of the two.
The Pacific Ocean covers almost 33% of the surface of the globe. It covers more of the Earth than the continental land masses combined. And climate models overestimate the warming there by 2.4 times. Yet somehow were supposed to believe all of the IPCCs predictions of gloom and doom when, after more than 2 decades of modeling efforts, the best the modeling agencies around the globe can do is have their models more than double the warming rate of the surface of the largest ocean on this water-covered planet.
And they said that only 100 bombs could wipe out civilisation!
By Staff Writers, China Daily, Aug 6, 2015
At the end of the table value is thus also the cooling effect with clouds and these certainly belong to the difficulties in climate science due to the interaction of several factors.The evaporation from a liquid surface falls within the field of fundamental physics and chemistry, and it can be determined using controlled experiments.It is therefore particularly noteworthy if they choose the wrong numerical value for such a fundamental process!
Economists debate the "message" being sent by the choice of recipients for this year's Nobel Prize in Economics.
And the fact that "climate change has sped up sea level rise that was supposed to take centuries has recently been projected as taking just decades," he wrote, only complicates his decision to have children.
Clearly, the weight of real-world evidence continues to suggest that it is the recurrent millennial-scale cycling of earths mean global air temperature that has been responsible for the bulk of the warming of the 20th century, which could yet continue its upward course, level out, or begin a slow decline; for this phenomenon has created such warmings and subsequent coolings time and time again without any help from mankind. And if its done so before innumerable times, in fact it can do it again. In fact, it has actually got to be expected that it would do so, and at about this point in earths history.
Kilimanjaro's link retreat and global warming
Richard Tols article reveals it was predicted back in 1991 the world would not agree to legally binding international agreements, such as carbon pricing or targets and timetables for emissions reductions with penalties for breaches of commitments.
Unfortunately, however, good news doesn't earn headlines. If you want to write a bestseller and get invited to all the best symposia, you're better off finding a new scare that allows you to shout, "The end is near!" And when one doomsday prediction goes up in smoke, simply find another one. Think I'm kidding? WWF has been doing it for years.
It was, at the least, a logical stretch to try to redefine the physical greenhouse effect or to create an alternative version of it, but the attempt was certainly an obvious one to take given the position climate science had put itself in with this previous postulate of solar heating being too cold. The logical propagation goes back from the radiative greenhouse effect being incorrect, to the previous postulate that solar heating is so feeble. By incorrectly modelling the solar heating as so cold, there was no possible way, by simple logical propagation, that any math, science, or physics based on that postulate would subsequently be correct or represent reality.
and using his popularity and momentum to capture enough Democrats to overcome
Following the super La Nina of 2010/11, we had a period of extremes ??? snow and cold to start, then floods and drought, tornadoes and heat and a landfalling hurricane.
Probiotic is a method of introducing benign intestinal bacteria to provide good flora.
Tucson, AZ. Extremely costly rules that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency is imposing on industry, especially users of diesel engines, have no sound scientific basis, writes John Dale Dunn, M.D., J.D., in the spring issue of the Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons.
"It's no secret that some congressional Democrats aren't particular thrilled that the Constitution was read on the floor of the House of Representatives on Thursday. Rep. Jerrold Nadler, a New York Democrat, objected on the grounds it was being read "like a sacred text.""
Many of us are old enough to remember the scare stories from the 1970s, a time when climate scientists were warning that Earth was returning to an ice age.
Question 6 (for Pederson): In his textbook Earth's Climate: Past and Future, William Ruddiman writes: "Earth's temperature reacts strongly to small changes in CO2 values at the lower end of the range (less than 200 ppm), but changes much less at the high end of the range (greater than 800 ppm)" (page 134). Some sources say that CO2 does most of its warming in the first 20 ppm.
Jay Lehr, Cooling looms as Earths climate calamity, Environment & Climate News, July 2013
How many times have you heard that we humans are "using up" the world's resources, "running out" of oil, "reaching the limits" of the atmosphere's capacity to cope with pollution or "approaching the carrying capacity" of the land's ability to support a greater population? The assumption behind all such statements is that there is a fixed amount of stuffmetals, oil, clean air, landand that we risk exhausting it through our consumption.
Without a doubt, the melting glaciers of Mt. Kilimanjaro serve as one of the most public symbols for those concerned about global warming. But is this valid? Well not according to the Center for Science and Public Policy, which notes in a recent paper how the glacial retreat on Kilimanjaro is much more complex than the storytellers admit. For starters, the melting of the Kilimanjaro ice field was recorded back in the mid to late 1800's, well before the buildup of greenhouse gases. Secondly, satellite readings of Kilimanjaro and the surrounding region have shown a temperature decline since 1979, thus indicating that atmospheric temperatures could not explain the melting. It appears, then, that any link to global warming is nothing but hot air.
On call, officials stress public options in health care shift:
For every nation, this coerced energy and economic deprivation will make it increasingly difficult to adapt to future climate changes that nature inevitably will bring our way. So much for the modern era. Mankind ought to have the wealth and technology to adapt far more easily than our ancestors were able to do.
Given such findings, for this particular portion of the planet, it should be very clear that relative coolness , as opposed to relative warmth, typically leads to more extreme storms, which is just the opposite of what the world's climate alarmists continue to contend.
How can we believe in global warming when the temperature records providing the evidence for that warming cannot be trusted?
Having established some reason to doubt the accuracy of the CRU data, we turn now to the now you see it, now you dont aspect. Here is my first attempt to gather data from CRU. It overlaps with Warwicks requests. This is not in the Climategate emails, it is personal.
There is no scientific evidence to back up the assertion of a ???disappearing Grrenland Ice Sheet. For a detailed explanation as to why the Greenland ice sheet cannot collapse under any AGW scenario, see Ollier & Pain, 2009 .
With instantaneous inputs, the Sun creates the water cycle and drives the entire climate. It heats up the surface to very high temperature, such as you can feel scalding your feet on a nice beach on a sunny day!
Vongehr accuses Pinker of rejecting evolution. That's a very bizarre accusation as you will realize once you will swallow the totally crisp and highly conservative explanations of the evolution paradigm, as communicated by Pinker. Vongehr just likes the idea of evolution that is applied at many levels multilevel selection but he doesn't offer any truly rational argument for his sentiment and he also claims that facts arising from biological research such as a variable mutation rate undermine Pinker's claims. It's not clear to me why Vongehr thinks so (the mutation rate and even its dependence on the parameters of the environment is just another quantity encoded in the genes and is subject to natural selection applied to the genes the mutation rate in your body isn't controlled by the government, for example); his text is pretty much unintelligible so that's everything I want to say about it.
Moulin et al . conclude that "sea urchins inhabiting stressful intertidal environments produce offspring that may better resist future ocean acidification." And they add that the fact that "the fertilization rate of gametes whose progenitors came from the tide pool with higher pH decrease was significantly higher," suggests "a possible acclimation or adaptation of gametes to pH stress." References
(All my posts tagged Matt and Janet Thompson , & Peter Spencer )
Pinker says that even though the bees' behavior wouldn't be evidence in favor of group selection because it may be explained by the propagation of genes, the humans behave nothing like the bees, anyway. The human trait that group selection theory depends upon doesn't really seem to exist. And when some people do happen to sacrifice themselves suicide attacks are Pinker's natural ultimate examples of self-sacrifices, of course they lead to negative consequences for the individuals who do such things and people connected to them. The military history would look very different if suicidal attacks were benefiting the groups.
WEST GLACIER REGION...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM TUESDAY TO
10 old climate change controversies - Josh 290
There is quite a bit of confusion about the nature of hockey stick temperature constructions. Currently, many non-paleo climate scientists seem to want to avoid the discussion altogether. However, these studies are still freely passed through review, which seems to me a very biased point of view. I reported here , on an open review of a paper written by Ammann on a different method for scaling proxies to correct for variance loss in proxies. As I read it, it looks like a method which will get closer to a proper solution but not fix the problems. It seems that some climate scientists have fully recognized the problem of Mannian style reconstructions and are interested in improving the results.
Normally they put in fresh water pipelines ,irrigation systems drill bore holes or build the Hoover Dam
But for all of the sturm und drang about climate change, what has actually happened? It's time to acknowledge five obvious truths about the climate-change issue:
Symmetry Magazine , Universe Today , TAMU (stories added later)
edmontonsun.com - Alberta - Stelmach complains of environmentalist 'hidden agenda' Premier Ed Stelmach launched into a scathing attack against Alberta's environmental critics today, saying some may have ulterior motives to attack the provincial economy.
Require congressional approval for major regulations. A number of major regulations in addition to the Obama Administration's climate change regulations threaten natural resource development in the United States. Two of the most threatening are the EPA's proposed Waters of the United States (WOTUS) and more stringent ozone standards. The WOTUS rule is an attack on private property rights and would significantly limit land use, including energy production. More stringent ozone standards would choke off energy and economic development throughout the country and could become the most expensive regulation in history. America needs a check on unelected bureaucrats. Congress should require congressional approval of new major regulations issued by agencies.