Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
My Comment: In other words, observations are devalued as being an important part of the assessment of theskill of model predictions. This is such a deviation from the scientific method that I find it puzzling why funding agenciessuch as the NSF do not reject projects that make such a claim. Not only are they ignoring the need to properly validate model skill by using historical data, but they ignore that they also need to validate the model predictions for the CHANGES in climate statistics that result from human and natural climate forcings.
3. The disappearing ice, we were told, was increasing the propensity of the Arctic to absorb 85% of the incoming solar radiation, rather than reflecting 85% of it harmlessly to space. However, Bob somehow failed to mention that at the summer sea-ice minimum in 2008 the extent of the ice was 12% up on 2007, and in 2009 it was another 12% up. This good news, indicating that ever more of the Sun??s rays are being reflected up into outer space, wassomehow not shared with the audience.
Meanwhile, the natural climate archive is disappearing faster than scientists can gather data. "Ice is melting, corals are being destroyed, trees are being cut down," said Trenberth. "Collecting needs to speed up."
"Low-fat diets didn't reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease, colorectal cancer or invasive breast cancer, according to three large studies published this week in the Journal of the American Medical Association. The researchers divided 48,835 women into two groups based on diet-- one group with 19,541 women consumed a low fat diet and the other group with 29,294 women consumed their usual dietsand followed the women for 8.1 years."
"Breast cancer surgeon Kathryn Wagner has posted a warning in her waiting room about a different sort of risk to patients' health: She'll stop taking new Medicare cases if Congress allows looming cuts in doctors' pay to go through."
Notwithstanding the considered opinion of Baillie and Wilson that oaks are ???virtually useless as a temperature proxy?? and ???dangerous?? to use in a temperature reconstruction, no fewer than 119 oak chronologies were used in Mann et al 2008.
But according to the geological record and data from ice cores, higher temperatures actually precede higher carbon dioxide levels by about 800 years. Twentieth century data support this idea in at least two ways. First, most of the 20th centurys warming occurred before 1940, while most of the centurys greenhouse gas emissions occurred after 1940.
Little wonder, during the government shutdown, more than 93% of EPA employees were furloughed when designated as "non-essential." That was more than nine out of every ten employees!
Shipping contributes twice as much to emissions as aviation.
August 2003 low is 0.2m, high is 6.2m, range is 6.0m.
Morano on CNN debates alleged 'censorship' of global warming science
This could be part of a natural oscillation of El Nio, he said. Or it could be El Nios response to a warming atmosphere. There are hints that the trade winds of the Pacific have become weaker with time and this may lead to the warming occurring further to the west. We need more data before we know for sure.
In his review, Ball has a number of excellent quotes from Gray including:
First, it is difficult to project trends in atmospheric CO2 concentration because the gas is absorbed and released by the ocean, soil and vegetation. Second, it is also difficult to calculate the response of the climate to increased atmospheric CO2 as well as to independently occurring natural climate changes. Current computer simulations of the climate suggest that global warming from increased greenhouse gases may increase the global temperature by somewhere between 0.8 C and 4.5 C by the year 2100, a range too wide to be meaningful.21
smartly, with a whirlwind of purposeful activity from Nov. 5 on. Obama more than
However, there is some humor in ClimateGate. Here's some odd stuff a commenter on the website Climate Audit picked up as a result of checking out the file HARRY READ ME.txt - one of the hacked files. The "Harry" file tells the tortured story of a programmer at CRU struggling to make sense of inconsistent, missing, and incompatible data files and seemingly to try to replicate them. Many of those files had earlier been compiled by someone named "Tim," who seems to have really made a mess of things. According to the commenter, this "Tim" seems to be Tim Mitchell - who worked at the Climactic Research Unit at University of East Anglia when he was a Ph.D. student and then received his degree. At the time, he also was a member of -- no joke -- South Park Evangelical Church, as he notes in his religious writings on climate change and religion.
At the same time the report concludes that the pipeline will have no meaningful effect on the climate, even if you accept (you shouldn't) the dire predictions of the most extreme climate computer models, as Canada will extract oil from its oil sands with or without the pipeline. The oil would simply get to market through less efficient means.
And, of course, the natural processes that cause the oceans to warm were detailed with numerous datasets in my recently published ebook. Its titled Who Turned on the Heat? with the subtitle The Unsuspected Global Warming Culprit, El Nio Southern Oscillation . It is intended for persons (with or without technical backgrounds) interested in learning about El Nio and La Nia events and in understanding the natural causes of the warming of our global oceans for the past 30 years. Because land surface air temperatures simply exaggerate the natural warming of the global oceans over annual and multidecadal time periods, the vast majority of the warming taking place on land is natural as well. The book is the product of years of research of the satellite-era sea surface temperature data thats available to the public via the internet. It presents how the data accounts for its warmingand there are no indications the warming was caused by manmade greenhouse gases. None at all.
A bit of interesting action continuing on the mid-Atlantic spreading zone and some mild stuff down in Mexico.
I think the American Democrats and the British Conservative are offering similar advice in two respects.
Normally by this date, about 20% of the Greenland ice sheet is melting. This year only about 5%, which is the slowest on record.
Schellnhuber is also the Chairman of the WBGU advisory council to the German government, which is pushing for a Great Transformation of global society to one that is sustainable and not based on fossil fuels.
Not only did I provide a thorough review of their argument on root collar inhomogeneity, I explicitly stated that their concerns about root collar and radial inhomogeneity seemed entirely reasonable to me:
He references this assertion by a link to another page of Skeptical Science that provides multiple lines of evidence for the proposition, agreed as St. Vincent of Lerins used to put it, fere omnibus (by very nearly everyone) that the planet has been warming. But not that it currently is warming.
on Friday, August 17th, 2012 at 12:41 am and is filed under Uncategorized.
Councils in the UK should do "absolutely nothing" to tackle climate change unless a stringent global deal on reducing carbon emissions is reached through the United Nations, which includes developing as well as developed countries according to Lord Lawson.
If taxpayers and consumers are informed about the high cost and limited environmental benefits of renewable energy, and nevertheless choose freely to support renewables by voluntarily paying taxpayer subsidies and higher electricity bills, that is their right. But they also have a right to an honest and fact-based discussion of the cost and environmental impacts of renewable energy polices. None of this is presented in McKibben's article.
As a fuel source, coal is a different product from what it was in past decades. Specifically, it is much cleaner. Yet, as always, it is much cheaper and more reliable than renewables such as wind and solar. In the generation of electricity, its real competition is natural gas.
This occurred despite the diversion of land and crops from production of food to the production of biofuels in large part in response to climate change policies. According to one estimate, such diversions helped push 130155 million people in 2008 into absolute poverty, exacerbating hunger in this most marginal of populations which, in turn, may have led to 190,000 premature deaths worldwide in 2010 alone. Goklany IM (2011), Could Biofuel Policies Increase Death and Disease in Developing Countries? Journal of American Physicians and Surgeons 16 (1): 913.
Could the global warming hypothesis meet the rigorous evidentiary standards of a legal trial? The answer, according to Jason Scott Johnston, is clearly negative.
The latest Democratic president is repeating the mistake of the first. When Thomas Jefferson entered office 210 years ago, Chief Justice John Marshall warned that Jefferson would "embody himself in the House of Representatives." This would "increase his personal power," Marshall predicted, but it would lead to the "weakening of the office of the President." The chief justice meant that his political rival (and distant cousin) would gain power by joining forces with his party's legislative majorities. But the combination would realize the Framers' fear that Congress would come to dominate the executive branch.
Corbin Hiar, UN Dispatch, 11 August 2010
When you're out in cold like this, you realize how much you depend on your own body. It's 98.6 degrees in your gut, and zero outside, so you have to conserve that "slow burning" fuel inside. Our boots were soaked, so Dylan left his by the fire. I threw on a few extra logs, and we crawled into our sleeping bags by 9 o'clock.
Any projects built with federal funding have to pay prevailing wage rates pursuant to the Davis-Bacon Act, and those rates are approximately 20% above standard wage levels. Hence the union applause at the president's announcement.
Yesterday's speech does little violence to the President's symbiosis with the prevailing winds of public opinion, as most disinterested Americans would find nothing objectionable in what he said. He effectively threaded the rhetorical needle of marrying full-throated American exceptionalism with a series of straw-man arguments against military intervention. In the President's mind, there is the over-reach of his predecessor, there is the isolation of the past century, and there is his wise path, laid out in four broad ideas. His words were powerful and direct, and if one does not think too hard about the linkage between words and deeds comforting.
So we build into these models a feedback mechanism that says as more CO 2 is added, the temperature increases non-linearly. We then run these models and we find exactly what we expected to see: increasing CO 2 leads to a positive feedback in temperature!
These numbers do not show successive downward steps in US GDP per capita growth rates from 1950. In fact, the peak is right in the middle of the periods, and otherwise the growth rates are very similar through the period. The calculation of trends on the time series is very sensitive to the start and end point chosen for analysis -- which should raise a red flag for chartist-based arguments.
Observers should note that the cost relates purely to adaptation and resiliency projects, such as poverty alleviation, which will enable poor Indians to better cope with any environmental changes. This cost does not include the far more onerous burden of emissions caps, carbon taxes, renewable fuels mandates, or all of the other smorgasborg of policies designed to reduce emissions. Under the Kyoto Protocol, India and other developing nations do not face binding emissions reduction targets.
This offset program, the Carbon Capital Fund, will link consumers' offset investment to projects on National Forests to sequester additional carbon as well as improve water quality, increase wildlife habitat, and improve the ecological condition of our National Forests and Grasslands .
If you are criticizing Professor Mann, that is. But if he is criticizing you?well, then, that's a different story.
In context of the current status of the CAGW-policy debate, moral arguments seem to be in ascendancy as the scientific argument seems to be weakening. Climate change is a complex moral and political issue; thinking that science and scientism holds the answers is unfortunate dogma and ideology among too many scientists.
Donald P. Hodel and Becky Norton Dunlop, "The Federal Estate: Opening Access to America's Resources," Chapter 7 in Environmental Conservation: Eight Principles of the American Conservation Ethic, The Heritage Foundation, 2012, http://www.heritage.org/research/projects/environmental-conservation; Katie Tubb and Nicolas D. Loris, "The Federal Lands Freedom Act: Empowering States to Control Their Own Energy Futures," Heritage Foundation Backgrounder No. 2992, February 18, 2015, http://www.heritage.org/research/reports/2015/02/the-federal-lands-freedom-act-empowering-states-to-control-their-own-energy-futures.
Keep on the good work. I won't be able to use this email address for long so if you reply, I can't guarantee reading or answering. I will several batches, to anyone I can think of.
It is in this context that climate change provided a new opportunity for many governments to legitimize their role, and expand their scope. The formation of the IPCC and its apparent focus on the science of climate change allowed the political establishments to claim science as the basis for proposed climate policies that increased the power of government and curtailed the private sector. The time frame of the projected climate change was longer than earlier green crusades, typically from 50 to 100 years. This will allow policy makers to escape accountability for their misguided policies since they would be out of office by the time the consequences became apparent.
In Scotland, such poisonous artifices to circumvent the plain intention of a law, and particularly of a constitution, would be regarded in the courts with the gravest disfavour. Yet in Australia, according to the judge in Peter Spencer's case, the governing class can do pretty much as it likes, and to hell with the mere Constitution.
The reader may be surprised to learn of the critical role energy plays in agriculture and the amazing variety of important products made from petroleum and other fossil-fuel energy sources. As Moore and White point out, these products include pharmaceuticals, plastics, chemical feedstocks, soccer balls, guitar strings, fabric softener, artificial limbs, electrical tape, shaving cream, hair color, and hundreds more. In fact, even most textiles and clothing are now made from synthetic fibers, which are developed in part from fossil fuels.
The report has good news for the Canadian environment as well, "The Environmental Screening Report concluded that, with incorporation of Keystone's proposed measures to avoid or minimize impacts and with Keystone's acceptance of the NEB's regulatory requirements and recommended conditions, implementation of the proposed Project in Canada would not likely result in significant adverse environmental effects. ""
Once again quoting the researchers who did the work, "our results show both short-term acclamatory and longer-term adaptive acquisition of climate resistance." And they thus conclude that "adding these adaptive abilities to ecosystem models is likely to slow predictions of demise for coral reef ecosystems.' References
Instead, though, the authors of this studymost of whom get money from Big Pharmaconclude that the results mean that we must tighten LDL and HDL goals even moreto a point whereby they cannot be achieved except with drugs.
"Seems to me that "serial climate misinformer' and "anti-science' qualify as defamatory, and it's difficult to imagine that the statements were not made with malice."
How the desire to beat the crap out of someone who is a fellow scientist, and who is also a taxpayer who helps pay his salary, is in accord with these above values is something Id love to hear Santer explain.
Has something happened to the Adam Smith Institute ? They seem to have a new, very corporate-style website (yuk). The blog appears to be there, but there's no RSS feed. No word of explanation - no nothing. Have they all been abducted by aliens or something?
In this post, Dr. Roy Spencer asserts that climate change is more a result of changes in the environment from natural causes or cycles, and not by man-made causes. He writes that, Over the last quarter century, mainstream climate science has changed dramatically, from a paradigm where climate changes naturally to one where climate forever remains the same unless humans meddle with it.The reasons for this paradigm shift are clearly not based on science. Sure, you can always analyze some dataset in such a way that it gives the appearance of climate stasis (e.g. the hockey stick), but there is plenty of published research over the last 50 years supporting the view that climate changes naturally, and on all time scales decadal, centennial, millennial, etc.
Although there have been year-to-year and decadal-scale oscillations in the annual number of freezing rain-days in the United States, recent numbers are about the same as the 50-year average.?? Thus, it would appear that there is nothing extreme or unusual about the current level of occurrence of this particular weather phenomenon, which finding represents just one more example of the superiority of our contention that real-world data fail to support climate-alarmist predictions of warming-induced increases in extreme weather events. Reviewed 28 September 2005
Infections of significance that occur in hospitalized patients are unavoidable in many cases because the patients are debilitated and have reduced resistance.
Can climate models simulate ENSO? The answer is also no. Refer to the post Guilyardi et al (2009) Understanding El Nio in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress andchallenges .
The question is not whether temperatures have risen or whether mankind has affected the climate. Temperatures have always risen and fallen and mankind has always affected the climate. The question is whether we have a problem on our hands. The poor performance of the climate models suggests that the problem is much less than we have been led to believe.
This huge, international farce formerly known as the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change, began as an international treaty created in 1992. The U.S. Senate refused to ratify the Kyoto Treaty, but pledges to reduce greenhouse gases were made by 33 out of 195 countries, called their ?Intended National Determined Contribution? are the main feature at the forthcoming Paris conference.
Once the embodiment of Western ideals, the UN has turned into a lean, mean anti-West machine. Though European publics no longer have any illusion today about a Europe-puissance, they still retain a surprisingly boy-scoutish view of the UN, one that no longer corresponds to reality. European public opinion saw nothing wrong, for instance, in the recent establishment of an International Criminal Court that would give its prosecutor the power of a grand inquisitor, in part because they are not aware of the politicization of the UN (and of the potential use of the ICC as an anti-Western weapon), but also in part because, over the years, they have resigned themselves to the creeping judicial and technocratic imperialism pursued at home by the EU Court of Justice and the EU Commission.
Whales whose hearing is disrupted or permanently damaged by noise are basically sentenced to death because they are no longer able to orient themselves.
Well then, I would say that pretty much confirms it. For quite some time, I?ve harbored the suspicion that both the popular science and the political activity that create and sustain the belief in Global Warmingism are informed by a retrogressively pagan mindset.
Separate from the matter of EPA's final position on the three enforcement issues described above is the constant change and uncertainty surrounding its positions. Industry experts express frustration with EPA's apparent practice of changing NSR policies without following established rulemaking requirements.
The European Union's legal officials propose creating a new category of "environmental crimes".
In 1997, the Competitive Enterprise Institute set out to answer just that question. CEI sponsored a conference on the implications of an international treaty on global warming in July of that year. This conference examined recent scientific developments, the economic and distributional impacts of proposed policies, the impact of political pressure on climate research, and the implications of applying the precautionary principle to global climate change.
But lets be real generous, and ignore all that. For the purpose of this analysis, well swallow the whopper that a 3 temperature rise wouldnt drive evaporation through the roof, and well assume that the parasitic sensible and latent heat losses from the surface stay at a quarter of the radiation losses.
<2495> Humphrey/DEFRA:
This is a pretty serious warning that warmer temperatures are not going to endlessly improve plant growth, Running said.
In the face of multi-trillion dollar political insanity, we would do well to remember these scientists are nothing but glorified weathermen. The same as the much derided group of science minded individuals who tell us if it will rain next week. These climatoknowledgists claim to know the average temperature a hundred years in the future within two degrees C, yet cant nail down the temp of St. Louis within 5C in two weeks.
I also agree with Giuliani that Obama is helping to establish the culture in which one cannot criticize Islam , not even for its features that are self-evidently wrong, and that's a very harmful influence of the president on the life and security of the U.S.
The 2001 IPCC gospel had abolished the medieval warm period by another piece of dubious statistical prestidigitation that was now under investigation by the Attorney-General of Virginia under the Fraud against Taxpayers Act 2000 (gasps of gaping astonishment from some of the environmentalists, who seemed not to have been told this before).
Now the picture seems to look rather less satisfying. We can see that empirical measurement is suggesting a low climate sensitivity with the most likely value at around 1.5C. Higher values are driven by the modelling studies. Moreover, we can see that large ranges of values of climate sensitivity as implied by the empirical measurements of Forster and Gregory are not covered by the PAGE model at all. The IPCC's suggestion that climate sensitivity is most likely to be in the range 24.5C is shown to be barely supportable and then only by favouring computer simulations of the climate over empirical measurements. This seems to me to throw lesson one of the scientific method out of the classroom window. And I really do mean lesson one:
All of this raises the question just how much of the step up in UK temperatures since the 1980s been caused by more sunshine, rather than CO2?
The well documented , accelerating growth of CO2 emissions has not produced the "expert" predicted warming across the globe , nor thecontiguous U.S.
Have you wondered what the end game of the "protests" on Wall Street might be? To gain a little insight into the answer to that question, watch these two videos: