Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
For "most" I'll assume "more than half." For "observed increase in global temperature" I'll assume the linear least-squares regression trend through the most recent version of the global temperature dataset compiled jointly by the U.K.'s Hadley Center and Climate Research Unit (dataset HadCRUT3). There are other global temperature compilations (most notably from NASA and NOAA) and while there are certainly notable differences over the short run, over the longer term, they are very similar. "Since the mid-20th century" I'll take as 1950. The EPA defines what it means by "very likely" in the Table I reproduced belowthey mean "with a 90-99% probability." And for "observed increase in GHG concentrations", I'll assume the greenhouse gases explicitly mentioned by the EPA (CO2, CH2, N2O, HFCs, PFCs, SF6).
One of the components discussed above is presented correctly: the volcanic aerosols component. After the two major explosive volcanic eruptions, global sea surface temperatures did cool and then warm back up gradually over a few years. Those dips and rebounds are tough to find in some parts of the global oceans, but in others you cant miss the effects of those volcanos. Additionally, the way the El Nio-La Nia component is portrayed is partly correct. Global sea surface temperatures do warm in response to El Nio events
Agreement signed at Mexico City June 13, 2006; entered into force June 13, 2006.
Washington, D.C., April 14, 2008 The tax burden borne by Americans goes well beyond April 15th's infamous income taxes.
A new U.S. Geological Survey study predicts where 50 bird species will breed, feed and live in the conterminous U.S. by 2075. While some types of birds, like the Bairds sparrow, will likely lose a significant amount of their current U.S. range, other ranges could nearly double. Human activity will drive many of these shifts. The study was published today in the journal PLOS ONE .
Already, the crops we have now, the herbicide-tolerant and the insect-resistant crops ... getting what amounts to higher yields. You can raise more food on less land, and all of that is good for ecology in general and the climate particularly.
Kevin Fay, executive director of the International Climate Change Partnership, claimed that early action would not hurt small business. "A successful early action program will reduce the overall level of reductions required under any regulatory program. Companies that don't make early reductions will thus have fewer reductions to make and will benefit from the lessons learned by the early actors and the innovations and new technologies that have resulted from these experiments." But the Kyoto Protocol caps emissions at 7 percent below 1990 emissions for the U.S. Any credit that is awarded now will be one less credit available when the compliance period begins.
New satellite data are starting to show but are quite convincing, I must say that both the Greenland ice sheet and the Antarctic ice sheet are losing net mass , not on the margins but as an ice sheet, he said.
Now to the second fib. The Renewable Fuel Association (2013 budget: $8 million) says it wants to help America become "more energy independent." The reality: Ethanol has done effectively nothing to reduce oil imports. Over the past ten years, oil imports have fallen by more than half. But that decrease is due almost solely to the dramatic increase in domestic oil production over that time frame. How dramatic? Since 2005, just the increase repeat, just the increase in U.S. oil output, nearly all of it from shale deposits, equals more than five times the output of every ethanol distillery in the country.
In this not quite friendly interview with Giuliani, Fox News' Megyn Kelly joined the Obama personality cult. Thankfully, Giuliani didn't behave like Matt Taylor after the feminists criticized his shirt.
In referring to the current global warming alarms, Bastardi asks:
In Italy many choices sullenergia, you would not be accepted dallopinione public, if it were not for the theory of greenhouse gases to make them plausible. For example, the Minister THE ENVIRONMENT A. Pecoraro Scanio has provided a plan of 100 million Euros for solar energy. Unfortunately, solar energy costs 10 to 20 times more than coal and nuclear power.
Energy reality continues to set in for the government-dependent energy sector, industrial windpower. Part of the reckoning is economic???the increased competitive gap between electricity generated from natural gas versus wind. But the bigger part is the looming expiration of the Production Tax Credit (PTC) for wind. Twenty years of such political favor has not been enough for a product that is intermittent (read: sub-industrial grade).
But this is not meant to be a blog post focusing on speculations. It's possible that these speculations are wrong and even if they are right, they don't really change much about the picture. Even if the basic biography is what we are told, it is very clear that Barack Obama grew up in an environment with lots of extreme left-wing activism and lots of Islam, too, and this almost certainly has implications for his thinking about the current America, too.
In and of itself, though, this rebalancing will not bring the kind of maritime domain awareness that is so crucial for an understanding of both the Great Game and the Long War. Outside the Anglo-Saxon world, to be sure, Western policymakers and opinion leaders have rarely been literate when it comes to naval strategy. Though this is not the place for a comprehensive tour d'horizon of the military, political, diplomatic, and constabulary uses of seapower25, basic "maritime domain awareness" is necessary when discussing the future globalization of NATO.
Companies that fail to register their energy use by next month will be hit with fines that could reach 45,000 under the little-known rules. Those that do participate in the Carbon Reduction Commitment (CRC) initiative by declaring their energy use will face charges for every ton of greenhouse gas they produce. These payments are expected to average 38,000 a year for medium-sized firms, and could reach 100,000 for larger organisations.
Since humans began adding CO2 to the planets atmosphere, taking plants off their starvation rations by creating a planet-wide greenhouse, plants have thrived. Data from NASA satellites, which since the early 1980s have been tracking the amount of biota on Earth, vividly demonstrate the results. As CO2 emissions grew in leaps and bounds, so did plants the data shows planet Earth is now greener than when those satellite measurements began.
Teamster, teacher, auto and service employee unions are paying their own employees minimal wages and benefits, and sacking them for trying to unionize, columnist Deroy Murdock chronicles while preparing to pump $50 million and legions of campaigners into ruling class Democrat reelection campaigns.
Chapter 2, by Dennis AverySaving the Planet with Pesticides: Increasing Food Supplies While Preserving the Earth's Biodiversity
In the words of the authors, "acorns from CO 2 springs contained significantly higher sulphur concentrations than controls (0.67 vs. 0.47 mg g -1 dry weight in Q. ilex cotyledons and 1.10 vs. 0.80 in Q. pubescens )," indicative of the fact that the trees were indeed significantly affected by the H 2 S- and SO 2 -enriched air in the vicinity of the CO 2 -emitting springs. They also report that Q. ilix seedlings grown from CO 2 spring acorns showed elevated rates of chromosomal aberrations in root tips, suggestive of the presence of a permanent stress. Nevertheless, as demonstrated by the results of several studies conducted on mature trees from these sites, the CO 2 -enriched air - even in the presence of significantly elevated concentrations of phytotoxic H 2 S and SO 2 - tremendously enhanced the trees' photosynthetic prowess: by 26-69% ( Blaschke et al ., 2001 ), 36-77% ( Stylinski et al ., 2000 ), and a whopping 175-510% ( Tognetti et al ., 1998 ). What it means
Image by Darren Wamboldt / Bergman Group
Planet Gore on National Review Online What is it with Al Gore? Why is he compelled to exaggerate climate change (excuse me, the climate crisis), and then to propose impossible policy responses? Its like hes inventing the Internet all over again! OK, its pretty much standard rhetoric in Washington to say that if you dont do as I say, there will be massive consequences. But to say, as Gore recently did: The survival of the United States of America as we know it is at risk; and: The future of human civilization is at stake thats a bit much, even for the most faded and jaded political junkie. Heres how Gore works. Hell cite one scientific finding that shows what he wants, and then ignore other work that provides important context. Heres a list of his climate exaggerations from his well-publicized July 17 rant, along with a few sobering facts...
Eric Shawn investigates the hit on Hoffa: 38 years later, the mystery endures | Fox News
"Never use human beings as a means to end" is a fundamental principle of ethics. This imperative is especially strong with regard to children, who are the most vulnerable to manipulation. It is shameful that the most prominent environmentalist special interestsincluding the Sierra Club and the American Lung Associationso frequently invoke children in order to level baseless allegations of abuse against those with whom they disagree.
Matt Dempsey Matt Dempsey@epw.senate.gov (202) 224-9797
5. As discussed in the weblog of December 16, 2005 the raw surface temperature data from which global surface temperature trend analyses are derived are essentially the same. The best estimate we have seen is that 90-95% of the raw data is the same. That the four analyses produce similar trends should come as no surprise.
Sure, he is large enough that he tends to play parts reserved for big and tall men, including Horton the elephant in a touring company of Seussical, the musical. But he says he is healthy and agile.
How Do You Differentiate Between CO2 Cold And Non-CO2 Cold?' "Given the incontrovertible evidence that evil humans made the weather cold (by making the earth hot) I was wondering how you tell the difference between -20C caused by CO2 and -20C caused by a lack of CO2. Do they make a thermometer which can tell the difference?'
By Liz Hartman, US Department of Energy, Breaking Energy, Aug 12, 2015
Sure, this is GISP ??? one ice core from Greenland and not global temperatures. The truth is we have no idea whether the current level of ???extreme?? hot days is much different to the hot spells 1,000 years ago, 2,000 years ago, or 7,000 years ago. It is completely disingenuous to pretend that a 15 year trend in a data set this noisy tells us something that matters.
Also there will be a 10% efficiency loss in the inverters necessary to convert the DC solar energy generated by the PV arrays to the AC supply connected to the distribution grid. In addition there will be a further charge-discharge round trip Coulombic efficiency loss in the batteries of about 5%. To be generous, lets say an extra 25% of energy must be generated to cover these two efficiency losses as well as the plant margin.
Publishing in the American Meterological Societys Journal of Climate , a new paper called An improved, objective Bayesian, approach for applying optimal fingerprint techniques to estimate climate sensitivity , Nicholas Lewis applies objective Bayesian techniques and uses more up-to-date observational data to derive his conclusions.
And yet, some of the most exciting technological developments and significant reductions in U.S. and Canadian GHG emissions since 2009 have come from outside the process: from the natural gas industry.
Beyond mere organizational problems are more fundamental factors. The nature of the issue and the history of past environmental alarms (e.g., the population bomb, resource scarcity, and so forth) meant that early on the issue broke down into rigid categories of "true believers" or "alarmists," and "skeptics"terms that carry a pejorative connotation when used today. The heat over the issue has tended to drive scientists toward one camp or the other, which is one reason why many open-minded scientists avoid the issue or decline to participate in the IPCC process. Hence the scientists and experts participating in each iteration have become increasingly self-selected toward those with a bias toward climate alarmism. Although the IPCC's reports pass through elaborate peer reviews, controversy surrounds many basic issues, and a number of errors or weak conclusions have gotten through.
That range in modeled energy imbalances was so great, not only did I double check all of the spreadsheets and downloads, but I cross-checked the extremes. Those extremes in the modeled energy imbalances come from two modeling groups, the two highs from one and the two lows from another. To cross-check the results, I downloaded the outputs for the 4 model runs from those two groups (2 each) but this time using the outputs of the historic/RCP8.5 (worst-case) scenario. See Figure 14. The spread is a tick higher with the RCP8.5 scenario. As one would expect, the RCP8.5 scenario also causes the energy imbalances to rise faster in the future than with RCP6.0.
Five crews and around 25 firefighters from South Yorkshire and Skelmanthorpe initially attended and four crews are still at the scene, due to the deep-seated nature of the fire, which is burning far below the surface of the huge stacks.
Fred Dardick reported in 2011, We are in the midst of the convergence of three major solar, ocean, and atmospheric cycles, all heading in the direction of global cooling. Last year the Southern Hemisphere experienced its coldest winter in 50 years and Europe just went through two particularly cold winters in a row; the cooling has just begun. The likelihood of a repeat of the great frost of 1709 is growing every day. (6)
At a breakfast talk, Michigan's deeply unpopular governor
And heres the link to Jon Samets declaration that there is no safe level of air pollution.
Germany, in 2002 and 2003. I just refused to give an exclusive interview to
which of course also the BDA is temperature dependent and d jmviktskonstanten. Someone might now associate with the concept of law of mass action, which one p my time had served p grundskoleniv.
Eliot A. Cohen, a member of AEI's Council of Academic Advisers, argues that the United States has only two choices in this situation: to live with a nuclear Iran or strike against Iran now. Neither decision seems palatable. "Understandably, the U.S. government has hoped for a middle course of sanctions, negotiations, and bargaining that would remove the problem without the ugly consequences," Cohen writes, but "this is self-delusion." The Iranian regime is "corrupt, fanatical, ruthless, and unprincipled . . . unpopular, to be sure, but willing to do whatever it takes to stay in power." Given Iran's leadership, Cohen agrees with Wolfowitz on the value of regime change, saying it is "in the American interest to break with past policy and actively seek overthrow of the Islamic Republic. Not by invasion . . . but through every instrument of U.S. power, soft more than hard."
A new paper provides more evidence for the reality of the Little Ice Age in the Southern Hemisphere, as well as its increased storminess compared to that of the Medieval and Current Warm Periods??
Selig told reporters at HoHoKam Park that it was a "dangerous precedent" to tax all ticket buyers primarily to benefit one team and that Major League Baseball has taken over negotiations for a new Cubs spring home.
It's time for America to have its long overdue debate over global warming science and the painful economic impacts of anti-hydrocarbon cap-and-trade policies. A little honesty, transparency and robust debate would do wonders for the integrity of the legislative process and Americans' trust in Congress.
Listing the bears under the Endangered Species Act is the wrong move at this time. My decision is based on a comprehensive review by state wildlife officials of scientific information from a broad range of climate, ice and polar bear experts.
Despite a balmy February winter that many in the U.S. would consider a global warming benefit, the overall cooling trend during the last 15 years persists.
Mikhail Metzel/AP/File
And here you already see three fans of the U.S. next to the Greenpeace Totem : that's exactly the place where the radar should be built.
I guess I should not make too much fun of our local paper, I know it must be hard to fill all those pages every day. But I have to laugh at the statistical insights our reporters provide:
Steer, a UK national, returns to the World Bank after three years as Director General, Policy and Research at the UK Department of International Development (DFID) in London. In earlier years at the World Bank he held a number of positions including Country Director for Indonesia and Vietnam and Director of the Environmental Department. He was also Staff Director of the 1992 World Development Report on Environment and Development, the Bank?s Flagship report to the Rio Summit.
I chose the lectures title largely in reaction to the sanctimonious tone employed by so many of those who advocate quite substantial, and costly, responses to what they see as irrefutable evidence that the worlds climate faces catastrophe, against people who do not share their view. To them the cause has become a substitute religion.
The scale of the challenge in the 450 Policy Scenario is immense: the 2030 emissions level for the world as a whole in this scenario is less than the level of projected emissions for non-OECD countries alone in the Reference Scenario. In other words, the OECD countries alone cannot put the world onto the path to 450-ppm trajectory, even if they were to reduce their emissions to zero. Even leaving aside any debate about the political feasibility of the 450 Policy Scenario, it is uncertain whether the scale of the transformation envisaged is even technically achievable, as the scenario assumes broad deployment of technologies that have not yet been proven. The technology shift, if achievable, would certainly be unprecedented in scale and speed of deployment.
First, the IPCC has already been compelled to reduce the radiative forcing at CO2 doubling by more than a sixth, from 4.4 W/m2 in the 1995 climate assessment report to 3.7 W/m2 in 2001. The CO2 forcing in the atmosphere cannot be measured directly. Also, laboratory experiments are of limited value because they cannot replicate the long optical pathway of the outgoing radiation through the rapidly-attenuating atmosphere.
story. They want the story to be a very strong one and don?t want to be made
Here . Excerpt: One of my intuitive objections to the theory of global warming has been the role of carbon dioxide as a trigger mechanism, the driver of changes in the earth's atmosphere. Yes I recognize that levels of carbon dioxide have risen from around 260 ppm to 360 ppm, but I still can't grasp how a gas that represents less than 0.04% of the atmosphere dictates the climate for the whole planet. ... So why would a trace gas be so crucial? And when did carbon dioxide go from irrelevant to the dominant driver of climate? (For example: past geological records indicate carbon dioxide levels in excess of 7,000 ppm and no correlation with temperature; Gore's famous graph where carbon dioxide lags behind temperature changes by 800 years; and, the more recent disconnects of carbon dioxide levels from temperature changes throughout the past century).
Europe can and should produce more of its own oil and gas. It has vast petroleum potential waiting to be tapped via fracking. Opposition to producing this petroleum is no more ethical than environmentalist demands that the United States keep its own enormous untapped petroleum supplies locked up, while we deplete other countries' assets and put their wildlife habitats at risk from production-related accidents.
Policymakers should look for win-win policies in order to improve the environment that we live in (e.g., see). The costs and benefits of the regulation of the emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere need to be evaluated together with all other possible environmental regulations. The goal should be to seek politically and technologically practical ways to reduce the vulnerability of the environment and society to the entire spectrum of human-caused and natural risks (e.g., see Chapter E in Kabat et al, 2004).
In an attempt to answer these important questions, Wahl et al ., as they describe it, "investigated sea level changes in the North Sea region based on 30 tide gauge records and 19 years of altimetry data." Based on their analysis of all the available data, the four researchers determined that "linear long-term trends in the Inner North Sea (1.6 mm/yr) are similar to global trends (1.7 mm/yr) but smaller in the English Channel (1.2 mm/yr)." And they report that "although the recent rates of sea level rise were high, there is no evidence yet that sea level rise has accelerated over the last decades in the North Sea region."
In the new CEI Podcast, Warren Brookes Fellow Kathryn Ciano interviews Carrie Lukas from the Independent Women's Forum about the male-female pay gap.
Sorry climate propagandists, floods are not increasing. Check out the facts at Climate Depot.
The Executive Order therefore seeks to increase efficiency and cost savings in the work performed by parties that contract with the Federal Government by raising the hourly minimum wage paid by those contractors to workers performing on covered Federal contracts to: $10.10 per hour , beginning January 1, 2015; and beginning January 1, 2016, and annually thereafter, an amount determined by the Secretary of Labor.
The Environmental Defense Fund (www.edf.org) is claiming that New York City could experience serious problems resulting from climate change. For example, sea level rise could threaten lower Manhattan with "frequent flooding by the end of the next century." The report gets even more specific. "The foundations of Battery Park City and the World Trade Center would be flooded regularly. The East River would flood Bellevue Medical Center, the FDR Drive and East Harlem between 96th and 114th Streets. Storms would flood much of Coney Island, submerging or creating islands of residential communities there and in Staten Island nearly annually," and so on.
Comcast, NBC deal opens door for online video:
"Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner's warning that refusing to increase the debt ceiling would plunge the nation into fiscal catastrophe is unfounded, at least according to some congressional Republicans."
In Alaska glaciers had been retreating from 100 to 200 years , the average rate of recessionbeing about 50 feet a year. The Antarctic ice- sheet also showed signs of recent retreat.
The study's authors, Drs. Jan Esper and Fritz Schweingruber at the Swiss Federal Research Institute, and Edward Cook at the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, state that "Much of the current debate on the Earth's climate variability is driven by the observation of a modern, century-long temperature increase, culminating with the last decade of the 20th century as the warmest since 1856."
According to NOAAs new publication, Explaining Extremes of 2013 from a Climate Perspective, there is no discernible connection between global warming and 2013 extreme weather events such as the California drought, Colorado floods, the UKs exceptionally cold spring, a South Dakota blizzard, Central Europe floods, a northwestern Europe cyclone, and exceptional snowfall in Europes Pyrenees Mountains.
I dont know how much a Tropical Airport exceeds the temperatures of nearby forests nor how much they exceed a Scandinavian Woods, but I do know they will be much warmer Certainly far warmer as a local phenomenon than the tenths and hundredths of a degree of AGW that we are supposed to be panicked about. Far more than anything attributed to CO2.
Top two graphs show temperature proxies from two different lakes in Iceland. Bottom graph is a composite of the two lakes, and shows ~12C temperature decrease from 8,000 years ago to the end of the record in the year 2000.