Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
The shorter political time horizon (the next election) is likely to yield too little attention to the adverse long-run effects of policy choices in this context, a carbon tax that is too high. The gerrymandering process ("wasting" the votes of the political opposition) is likely to result in less two-party competition in districts than otherwise would be the case, and thus a reduction in political accountability (although the effect in a House of Representatives or a Congress acting collectively is less clear). Both of those conditions are likely to yield a carbon tax higher than that "set to reflect the spillover costs of carbon emissions," and the same is true for interest-group competition for the revenues.
But even when included, and through a statistical trick, weighting it many times more than other proxies, the composite series ???rolls over?? (a down tick in temperatures) after 1980 requiring the deletion (???hide the decline??) of the data past that point. See the discussion by Steve McIntyre here and the video by Prof. Richard Muller here . Also, see the updated (2009) Sheep Mountain data here . For a less technical review, see here .
Peter J. Fontaine, Mann?s attorney, told The Yale Forum in an e-mail that he believes the press groups are ?flat wrong? in taking the side of what he called an ?industry shill? in this case:
While the energy bill that passed Congress in July did not include exploration in ANWR, a provision to do that is being included in the budget reconciliation bill, which will be finalized this fall.
But like I said, they havent even come close to proving, or even suggesting, that this drought had anything to do with global warming.
One of the foremost authorities on polar bears, Canadian biologist, Dr. Mitchell Taylor, testified before the U.S. Senate Committee on Environment and Public Works. He said : Of the 13 populations of polar bears in Canada, 11 are stable or increasing in number. They are not going extinct, or even appear to be affected at present.
Is there a competition on to see who can be the most revolting climate change activist at the moment?
Of course, some believe that CO2 forcings do not even exist (although I'm not one of them). Here I am simply trying to determine what might be concluded about climate sensitivity if we assume Hansen's forcings and the OHC increases are correct. As we will see, the large difference between forcing (0.8) and radiative imbalance (0.2) implies an insensitive climate system.
CFACT is not alone in opposing the Obama Administration's attack on the provision of energy. Six unions are petitioning the Senate to hold hearings on the EPA coal plant rules. The International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers and five other unions have sent a letter to top senators on the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee. The United Mine Workers, Boilermakers, and Utility Workers said that the proposed rules would result in the closing of 56 gigawatts of coal-fired generation and the loss of approximately 250,000 jobs. These unions have been pushing back against the Obama administration for years at this point.
Q: You said you were going to tell us why the IPCC estimates of warming have been revised downwards. But I guess you didn't have time to. You showed the graph that they have changed since 1990, but you didn't mention why. And, I just wanted to I was just looking at the IPCC report and it says clearly that there is two main reasons: one, is that models now consider aerosols , before they didn't. So if you tell the model that there will be less sunlight, then of course it produces more cooling and aerosols weren't understood well enough in 1990 to include in that report - so that is one reason that the results are lower. The other reason is that they have chosen a different scenario for future CO2 emissions, so with less CO2 it will not be as warm. Isn't' that why the estimates are lower now?
That is one critical questionhow much warming can we expect from a given level of emissions? Equally critical, and perhaps equally difficult, is predicting what global emissions will be over the course of the next century or more, given the vast range of dubious assumptions that have to be made about levels of economic growth, technological development, and so forth, in every country of the world, over very long time periods. Again, however, we can test the accuracy of predictions by comparing them to actual emissions today. When the NRC examined the track record of the International Panel on Climate Change in this regard, it found little reason to trust the panel's accuracy:
Objection #2: The Atmosphere, which is cooler than the Earth Surface, cannot warm the Earth Surface.
My review was classified ?unsignificant? even I inquired several times. Now the
Indias move to stabilize its power grid by asking wind farms to accurately predict their output a day in advance or face fines will deepen the slowdown in Asias second-biggest wind market, Tata Power Co. (TPWR) said.
In the morning, sadly, our time with the Clan Ridley was over. I cant thank them enough for their hospitality, which was of the best kindeffortless despite the effort, generous despite the cost, and without apparent limit.
I got to thinking about the exponential decay function that I had used to calculate the lag in warming and cooling. When the incoming radiation increases or decreases, it takes a while for the earth to warm up or to cool down. In my calculations shown in my previous post, this lag was represented by a gradual exponential decay.
It is hard to fathom why some of the redacted information, which would reveal nothing sensitive about government policymaking, was withheld. The federal government must have spent thousands of dollars' worth of attorney time unsuccessfully fighting to keep it from being disclosed. For example, a January 7 at 9:17 p.m. email from White House staffer Nathaniel Lubin to several White House and OSTP staffers redacted as privileged the number "836431812" in the URL https://vimeo.com/83643182. This seems too trivial to warrant spending government employee time redacting it, especially from a communication about a video that allegedly just expressed the "personal opinion" of an agency official.
Its very plain to see that the observed global surface temperatures have not risen as fast as predicted by climate model simulations in recent years.
Wasnt it just this last June that NASAs Gavin Schmidt from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies in coordination with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced that after adjusting historical worldwide temperature data there has not been a global warming pause? So which NASA group are we to believe? Has there been a warming pause or not? Has the heat energy from man-made CO2 warmed air been somehow transported into a limited portion of the deep Pacific Ocean or not?
h/t John Droz (graph) and Willie (news)
Galston and Kamarck surely understand that Republicans aren't in as bad shape as Democrats were in 1989. Then Democrats had lost the presidential popular vote in the last six elections by an average of 10 percent. The corresponding figure for Republicans today is 4 percent.
131.At the other end of the spectrum, Plaintiff and his Counsel have issued demands that have no basis in law, as they well know ? including the preposterous assertion, in response to a parody video by ?Minnesotans for Global Warming?, that ?Professor Mann?s likeness? is protected from parody and satire?There is a smell to the hockey stick that, in Lady Macbeth?s words, ?all the perfumes of Arabia will not sweeten? ? nor all the investigations. And so Dr Mann has determined to sue it into respectability.
National Geographic, a respected scientific magazine global warming propaganda pamphlet, says that global warming will kill monkeys , by causing indigestion. Whatever, add imminent monkey doom to the list.
"Facebook creator Mark Zuckerberg scored a major victory on Monday, when a U.S. appeals court ruled that the Winklevoss twins could not appeal their previous settlement with Facebook over claims that Zuckerberg had stolen their idea for a similar site. But the victory may prove to be short-lived."
The pledges in the Copenhagen Accord are purely voluntary, and are insufficient to meet the goal scientists have set to limit the average global temperature to 2 degrees Celsius (3.8 Fahrenheit) above what it was before the industrial age began.
"Despite some diplomatic language about the agreement not replacing the Kyoto Protocol, this new approach to managing greenhouse gas emissions by some of the world's largest energy-consuming nations clearly rejects Kyoto's inflexible, economically destructive approach. Whatever the challenges future climate change may bring, a focus on new technologies and robust economic growth will always be our best strategy."
Settled Science: Global Warming To Bring Colder/Warmer Winters "It seems that every time we get some snow, another "scientist' is wheeled out to explain that, no matter how cold it gets, it is all down to global warming But let's, for one moment, remind ourselves of some of the "scientists' who have said the exact opposite'
When data from the satellites used by Santer are compared to data sets from radiosondes and NOAA/UAH satellites, Christy shows the climate models project from 157 percent to 297 percent more warming than has been recorded by any data set in the global mid-troposphere where the models indicate greenhouse gases should amplify warming the most. Models projected 230 percent more warming than the median value of the combined observational data sets.
Further, if India and China don't also sign up to cut their carbon emissions-and they did not embrace Kyoto-these proposed dramatic cuts in American carbon emissions alone would not solve the problems of climate change.
During his visit to America, Pope Francis has placed the responsibility for global warming on mankind and called for countries to reduce greenhouse gas production.
The second Yale/George Mason survey, ?Climate Change in the American mind ? Americans? Global Warming Beliefs and Attitudes in September 2012?, is even worse.
The Cap-and-Trade Kids argue that, whatever the economic merits, their approach is the only one with a political chance. But why? Carbon taxes have certainly been seen as a political third rail, at least since President Bill Clinton dropped a proposed BTU tax in 1993. People don't want to have to pay more for energy. But how does cap-and-trade overcome this critique? If it's going to rein in eagerness to pollute, it will have to raise the cost of pollution. It may be possible to win support by pretending this won't happen, but it's worth thinking hard about whether such deception is a sound basis for creating a major long-term policy.
References finding either no acceleration or a deceleration of sea level rise during the 20th and 21st centuries:
A Reuters report titled: "Heat waves pushes Texas power grid into red zone," stated: "Texas has the most wind power in the country, but the wind does not blow during the summer." Just a few months earlier, Texas ice storms forced rolling blackouts for hours because electric supplies dropped below demand." All of these reports are before the projected closure of an additional 75 megawatts of coal-fueled electricity generation due to the new regulations. If McCarthy was serious when, prior to the release of the proposed regulations, she stated: "Nothing we do can threaten reliability," she'd withdraw this plan, as it will do just that.
There seems to be an awful lot of misinformation about UKIP. And believe me, if the discourses were true, I would certainly not be a member. Weve had a few problematic characters: Godfrey Bloom and David Silvester being those that Oxford students will probably be the most familiar with. But our goals are far too important for us to be deterred by such people.
Bill Nye thinks it's "very bad news' gas is cheap
I was hoping to avoid debate on the science, but what you say is actually incorrect. Positive feedbacks dont necessarily lead to run away effects if the strength of the feedback changes, or other effects become more significant leading to an equilibrium being reached.
We cant run offrhetoricalbullshit. The real world doesnt work that way.
That??s an annual figure. And the plan seems to be even more subsidies. (I thought the plan was to make renewables competitive?)
The position with EF-5s is less clear, with a slightly increasing trend. However, this trend has been heavily influenced by the single year of 2011.
(click on image to enlarge) Note: The Greenland ice core data ends in early 20th century; the pink arrow and dot have been added to indicate the "consensus" temperature increase through 2009 since the LIA end mid-19th century. Additional historical temperature charts. Climate history postings. Modern temperature charts.
When the time came to start preparing the drawdown in detail, however, US
In the study, Webster, along with Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Chair Judy Curry and research scientist Hye-Mi Kim used satellite data along with historical tropical storm records and climate models.
??? If the new reconstruction of Southern Hemisphere temperature is accurate, then estimates of climate sensitivity the response of global temperature change to a given amount of external radiative forcing may be lower than those calculated based solely on Northern Hemisphere reconstructions 10 .
5. Loss of Arctic sea ice, particularly multiyear ice: As Dr. Meier would agree, the satellite record of Arctic ice is quite short, much shorter than the long-term changes in Arctic temperatures. The Arctic was as warm or warmer in the 1930s, and many records from that time attest to greatly reduced ice conditions. Both the Polyakov and the NORDKLIM records show the time around 1979 as being about the bottom of the Arctic temperature swing, so reducing Arctic sea ice is to be expected since 1979. In addition, I was surprised that Dr. Meier did not mention the last three years, which have seen both increasing Arctic sea ice and increasing multiyear sea ice.
If you are in the wealthiest 40% or so, here is what it will take to save your Social Security benefits: New taxes. These taxes will either be additional payroll taxes or additional income taxes. If they are payroll taxes, my guess is that the main tax increase will be eliminating the top cap on earnings subject to the tax; in other words, most of the new payroll taxes will be on the highest earners. If the new taxes are income taxes, then rest assured that they will be on the top 40% of earners, since it is the top 40% who pay virtually all of the income taxes in this country today.
So, here?s a list of basic climate change questions, and brief answers based upon what I know today. I might update them as I receive suggestions and comments. I will also be adding links to other sources, and some visual aids, as appropriate.
S.J.Res.26 would overturn the legal force and effect of EPA's endangerment finding, a December 2009 rulemaking in which the agency concluded that greenhouse gas emissions endanger public health and welfare. The endangerment finding is both trigger and precedent for sweeping policy changes Congress never approved. America could end up with a bundle of greenhouse gas regulations more costly and intrusive than any climate bill or treaty the Senate has declined to pass or ratify, yet without the people's representatives ever voting on it.
In light of their several findings, Crook and Foster conclude - in the Conclusions section of their paper - that "understanding reasons for the low Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical climate change feedback for both land and sea in the current generation of climate models should be a priority," which clearly indicates that we are not yet at the point where the output of the studied models can be given much credence when it comes to surface albedo feedback. Reviewed 16 July 2014
Climate "skepticism" is not a morally defensible position . The debate is over, and its been over for quite some time, especially on this blog.
Nice circular logic. They build a model which assumes that warming is caused by man-made CO2, then use the model as proof that the assumed warming is caused by man-made CO2.
Food. Food consumption consists primarily of groceries and restaurant meals. Of these, the latter are the larger component of indirect energy consumption, accounting for roughly 12.5 percent of all indirect energy consumption and nearly 53 percent within the food category (see table 3). Table 4 shows how much energy infuses specific types of food. The items requiring the greatest energy to produce are grain mill products (19.4 percent), meat products (15.3 percent), and preserved fruits and vegetables (14 percent).
Morano excerpts: "United Nations climate scientists have admitted that the models used to make these predictions of 50 to 100 years don't account for half the variability in nature, in other words the scientists can juice or tune the models to pretty much say anything they want to. The current climate reality is failing to alarm, it's not alarming according to satellite data we're at 18 and a half years without any change in global temperature.
Previous alerts include 3 posts on the Omaha situation and the participation of Warren Buffetts very rich daughter, whos pushing her weight around and has already intimidated the mayor into being quite on this insane idea.
When I talk to people about the insidious reach of big government one example Ive been using lately is that of The Netherlands. In the name of carbon-pollution the government of the Netherlands wants to have a GPS in every car in order to charge people for their CO2 emissions. Each GPS will track where and when every car moves, radio the data in and an audit office will calculate CO2 emissions based on kilometers driven and the car model. They will also know exactly where people go and how long they stay there for, 24 hours a day.
German Analysis: 97 Percent Consensus Does Not Exist Demands To End Debate Are Way Off Sides
I lived out West for a decade, back in the 1970s, and saw wildfires and dozens of burned-over forests. I hiked, camped, and skied during extra wet and ultra dry years. During a flight from Denver to Seattle, I watched multiple fires rage across tens of thousands of acres in four states.
THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE WORLD HAVE WARMED
In other words, there are many government functions that are unappealing to one extent or another. That is not in itself an argument against them. The Patriot Act was uglyand necessary.
The confidential statement, which was not meant to be distributed, is based on a 2010 evaluation of homeopathy by the British House of Commons science and technology committee, which declared it was no more efficacious than a placebo.
2000 worked on the Bush v. Gore case and the Florida recount. Stuart Levey is also a bureaucratic innovator who
ENERGY - Are Denmark's Renewable Energy Goals Wishful Thinking?
???Hydroponic growers use co2 in their operations,?? says reader John the 1st. ???There are several great videos on you tube demonstrating it. Plant yield, root structure ??? everything ??? is improved.??
And you know, her prediction was pretty extraordinary. The homeowner could easily find out that there are only 4 fires per 1000 existing houses per year (in Texas). Only 16.6 percent of these fires are caused by wiring - a similar percentage as fires caused by heating equipment (15.8 percent), cooking (11.4 percent), more than smoking (5.5 percent), children playing with fire (4.5 percent) but much less than fires caused by arson (25.5 percent). A future fire is very unlikely, it is very unlikely to be caused by wiring, and the expected damages are smaller than $20,000, anyway. So unless the homeowner can easily afford it, a $20,000 fee is a clear waste of money.
I?m sure you agree?the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should
In May 2013, Paul Driessen, a senior policy advisor for the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT), noted that the EPA, since Obama's inauguration in 2009, had generated 1,920 new regulations. "The EPA's actions are forcing us to expend vast financial, human, and technological resources to achieve minimal or even zero health benefits."
You see, the alarmists have been telling us for decades that rapidly accelerating global warming was imminent and unavoidable. The problem for the alarmists is the warming that has occurred has been modest and decelerating. In fact, it has ground to a complete halt for more than a decade.
Refer to my post Guilyardi et al (2009) Understanding El Nio in Ocean-Atmosphere General Circulation Models: progress and challenges , which introduces that paper. That paper was discussed in much more detail in Chapter 5.8 Scientific Studies of the IPCCs Climate Models Reveal How Poorly the Models Simulate ENSO Processes of my book Who Turned on the Heat?
I know the heading sounds odd, but its true. If we look at data on a global basis, we can only see that the global dataset has warmedwe cant see if there are obvious reasons for the warming. To eliminate that problem, well simply divide the data into two portions. Well call these regions the East Pacific (90S-90N, 180-80W) and the Rest of the World (90S-90N, 80W-180) to simplify the discussion. These areas are shown in Figure 4. They stretch from the Southern Ocean surrounding Antarctica to the Arctic Ocean surrounding the North Pole.
Oil prices fall to early summer levels.
Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Storage: No Proof of AGW
Read here . Climate alarmists and the IPCC have been aggressively trying to convince national policymakers and the public that dangerous climate change is affecting modern lives and it's due to human CO2 emissions. Unfortunately for the alarmists, the real world empirical evidence seems to always run counter to their assertions.
Is this because the UK wholesale market is very different? Where can I find a graph of UK wholesale prices? Is some other factor other than supply and demand involved?
CEI Expert Available to Comment: Vice President for Policy Wayne Crews on how "new media" makes old arguments about ownership obsolete:
The models have been tuned to base their predictions almost exclusively on Mans influence. Also, the models handling of temperature feedbacks may have led to an undue tripling of the global warming rate via the use of a system-gain equation borrowed from electronic circuitry an equation that has no place in the climate (Monckton of Brenchley et al., 2015, Science Bulletin 60(1): www.scibull.com ).
could ultimately get it extended. The official recalled the president
Giorgio Tomassetti/Flickr/Creative Commons
Without directly saying so, the issue posed by Eduardo here, in a Mannian context, is whether the calibrated relationship between the North American PC1 (bristlecones) and the NH temperature PC1, which has a positive correlation even though there is negligible correlation to gridcell temperature, is simply a result of two trends increased temperature and CO2 or other fertilization, or whether it is a bona fide relationship.
Some media have reported the results of a "research" by Amy Bug. Phys Org, Scientific American, and - sadly - even Physics World have equipped their articles with dramatic and suggestive headlines:
by itself shows how far we have yet to go to accuratelt predict precipitation. There is no way the regional models can correct for the deficiencies in the physics and dynamics of the global model results since its temperature, wind and moisture fields feed into the regional models. There is also no way the regional multi-decadal temperature forecasts can be correct if the precipitation and clouds are not properly modeled.
How strong will this reversal be? I predict that Republicans will gain between 55 and 72 seats in the House; my best estimate is 64. That will give the GOP 243 seats, its highest total since the election of 1946 and the second highest since the Great Depression. No living Democrat has served in a House of Representatives with as few Democrats as will inhabit that body come January.
Protect students' rights to all the facts about the climate