Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
Extreme drought occurs in Texas during more than 25% of years. Below are all the years since 1900 which experienced Palmer Drought Index extreme drought for at least one month during the year.
That component is the sensitivity of our atmosphere to a doubling of the concentrations of CO 2 . The activists who have tried to dominate the discussion of climate change for more than twenty years have insisted that this sensitivity is high, and will amplify the warming caused by CO 2 by 3, 4 or even 10 times the 1C of warming provided by a doubling of CO 2 alone. The Skeptics who oppose them dispute the models that have shaped Alarmist views of sensitivity and argue instead that sensitivity is only about 1C or even less.
Sea Level Rise Less Than 0.7 mm/Year And Falling
Environmentalism, on the other hand, is deeply political. It asks for the reorganisation of the world (and other comments to that effect)
There is already a well established system for measuring the strength of tornadoes, and a well established database to back it up. Yet Elsner has attempted to replace this with a statistical model, based on a small amount of potentially unreliable data.
Declining Discount Rates and Economic Growth Rates
Time then for me to dig out some slides that Ive used off and on in lectures since 1999 as an illustration of Henrik Svensmarks cosmic rays in action, controlling our climate. But first, just to show that Im not being kooky, heres a graph from a 2000 paper by E. N. Lawrence of the UK Meteorological Office. TheTitanicdisaster a meteorologists perspective, related iceberg abundance at low latitudes to a scarcity of sunspots (see image top right).
The two researchers report that "in the context of prolonged severe droughts," the 20th century "has been relatively moist compared to preceding centuries," and they say that their PDSI reconstruction and the Uinta Basin precipitation reconstruction indicate that "the early to mid 17th century in particular, and portions of the 18th and 19th centuries, experienced prolonged (>10 years) dry conditions that would be unusually severe by 20th century standards," noting that "the most striking example of widespread extended drought occurred during a ~45-year period between 1625 and 1670 when PDSI only rarely rose above negative values." What it means
The opposite is occurring. Why this test was not performed eludes me. Perhaps that is because it provides yet another piece of evidence supporting the hypothesis that we have simply overstated the sensitivity of surface temperature to changes in carbon dioxide.
Flashback 1977: CRU Director Hubert Lamb of U. of East Anglia: Climate Change Is Natural: "Nature doesn't know what "normal' means' Lamb: "The idea of normal weather is an unfortunate legacy resulting from the idea that grew up in the early days of this century that the climate was constant. Nature doesn't know what "normal' means'
I have had over 21 inches of snow at my house, here on the valley floor, at no elevation at all. For over a month now, every morning except one or two has been below freezing. And we all remember the arctic cold just before Christmas.
But for the last 15 years, Earths surface temperatures have failed to rise, despite rising atmospheric carbon dioxide. All climate models predicted a rapid rise in global temperatures, in conflict with actual measured data. Todays models are often unable to predict weather conditions for a single season, let alone long-term climate trends.
NASA in 1999: "Winter in the Northern Hemisphere will continue to warm' Warmists in 2010: "Global warming means colder and snowier winters in Europe and North America' Nostradamus Science: Warmist predict anything could potentially happen then any climate event is conveniently "consistent' with their global warming theory!
What is far from clear is the influence, if any, from CO2. Its influence must be very small, for it seems easily overwhelmed by natural influences such as the PDO and the three phenomena studied by SteveF.
Al Gore testifies before committees in both the House and Senate today on global warming.
A LEADING global warming expert believes the latest UN warning on man-made climate change is a ???big gamble?? as temperatures have not increased since 1997.
By Brent Kendall and Amy Harder, WSJ, Via GWPF, Aug 9, 2015
Where classical liberals see molehills of individual responsibility, politics can make mountains of government accountability. Look what the Soviet Union's Himalaya of a government was able to do with atomic power at Chernobyl.
Chitons Facing Ocean Acidification Grit Their Teeth and Prosper (6 April 2015)
Well, the mainstream American media, predictably enough, have totally ignored the entire scandal. There is, however, that small phenomenon of which they may not be aware, and for which they can thank none other than His Greenness Al Gore. Yes, that's right: a surprising number of Americans are now using the Internet, and are finding that the newspapers of England are as engaged by the Climategate scandal as ours are ignorant of it.
The GangesBrahmaputra delta is the dumping ground of the Himalayas. As wind and rain erode the mountain range, massive rivers carry more than a billion tonnes of sediment into the Bay of Bengal each year; in some places, the layer deposited since the most recent ice age is more than one kilometre thick. As in all deltas, this loose material compacts easily, causing the land to sink slowly and the relative sea level to rise. In the past, sediment carried downstream each year would have refreshed the delta. But agriculture, industry and hydroelectric dams have diverted water and choked the flow of sediments, so the land is no longer being rebuilt.
Unfortunately for the politicians and spin-meisters, the facts do not support this obscene posturing.
Europe's economy has contracted and, after a mild winter, continent-wide demand for energy has declined. Thus, power utilities have been operating at lower capacity levels, resulting in less carbon dioxide and other airborne pollutants being released into European airspace. Recent economic data shows the European economy worsening this spring, which could mean even lower demand from utilities and industry for tradable emission permits, leaving the long-term viability of the EU ETS in doubt.
"Since its passage, an ever increasing number of academics, politicians, and industry members have come out against the . The arguments of those opposing UIGEA have varied, but a popular and effective argument in light of the economic crisis is the potential for tax revenue that congress might draw from the lucrative online gaming industry. Barney Frank who will reintroduce a measure to repeal UIGEA, legalize and tax internet gaming as any other legitimate business, again had principled words for his fellow lawmakers using tax revenue as an excuse."
Here is just one more indication that despite what some would like you to believe, the MWP was not a regional non event.
As the air's CO 2 content rises, water losses via evapotranspiration from wheat fields will likely be reduced. Consequently, wheat will likely fare better under drought conditions and should additionally display increased water-use efficiency.
So if they are using temperature and salinity to come up with pH, how can they determine that the ???ocean acidification?? they claim in the PR is truly a function of dissolved CO2, and not just part of the normal regional and seasonal salinity pattern? That concern is backed up by one of the images in a photo collage they present with the paper , which shows what seems to be a salinity image from the Aquarius instrument, note the arrow:
Moreover, as the members of Congress gear up for the 2014 election cycle, their attention will be on fundraising.
This is legislative thuggery, andenergy realists shouldpounce it whenever it rears its ugly head. Our response should be always, Take that gun away fromour head, and then well debate the merits of your cap-and-trade bill.
Yes, not even that. According to the IPCC the global temperature has risen by about 0.74 degrees C. In jmfrelse with Linderholm's data is not much to react ver. Especially as we have not seen someone tempera Turkish accession in the 2000s.
Easily one of the most important stories of 2008 has been all the evidence suggesting that this may be looked back on as the year when there was a turning point in the great worldwide panic over man-made global warming. Just when politicians in Europe and America have been adopting the most costly and damaging measures politicians have ever proposed, to combat this supposed menace, the tide has turned in three significant respects.
According to the Spanish scientists who conducted the work, their data suggest that "under future environmental conditions, barley species will be able to succeed in salinized areas in which growth is not currently possible." This phenomenon, quite obviously, should prove a great blessing to humanity. Reviewed 7 April 2010
Focussing our scientific and policy efforts onclimate model simulations that are able only to predict (at best) the response to increasing greenhouse gases and carbon mitigation policies are strategies with diminishing returns and likelihoods.
In the mutli-decadal climate battle, organizations like Heartland have only recently erected a forum for scientists who do not embrace catastrophism, so that they may present their results and bypass what had been a media blackout. The initial, hockey-stick phase of the catastrophists response, while making use of tangential slurs about their opponents purportedly corrupt motivation, consisted largely in attempts at scientific counter-argument.
Claims that the only way to stop methane from having a greater warming impact on the planet is to stop fracking entirely are not supported by the scientific data. It is true the science of measuring methane is an evolving science that utilizes progressively less-flawed methods, but few studies have as many shortcomings as the ones promoted most by Bill McKibben.
Attorneys General Global Warming Lawsuit: A Desperation Ploy
PR from the Australian Maritime Safety Authority, Dec 25th, 2013:
It turns out that few people understand how the IPCC makes some of its most important decisions.
First, carbon taxes are not strictly a tax on bads (i.e. greenhouse gases), they are a tax on economic inputs: virtually all economic activity relies on energy consumption. In that regard, carbon taxes are taxes on both bads and goods. Sure, they tax greenhouse gases, but they also tax food, medicines, clothing, housing, transport, etc.
In the words of the authors, "virtually all of the heat transport in the southern hemisphere is confined to a shallow circulation in the upper 500m," while "in the northern hemisphere a contribution by a deeper circulation is still present and represents the contribution of North Atlantic Deep Water." However, they say "it only amounts to 0.4 PW out of the total , the rest being surface intensified." What it means
We need to do that, and can do it without hurting the environmental values we all cherish.
FURTHER READING: Andrew Biggs exposes "The Protected Class," Robert McHenry discusses "Culture and Its Discontents," and Jay Richards explains "Greed Is Not Good, and It's Not Capitalism." Kevin Hassett argues "Obama's Obsession Drives Progress in Reverse" while Arthur Brooks and Peter Wehner make "The Moral Case for Capitalism."
Days after being challenged here to come out of the closet, Craig Emerson peeks out:
Natural Gas Rig - Suncor Energy (Photo credit: Suncor Energy )
The trend of the warming since circa 1650 A.D., the nadir of the LIA, was well within natural variability.
Although, much remains to be learned on this subject, it is clear that many corals will not succumb to the presumed negative impacts of rising temperatures and ocean acidification. And when adaptive and evolutionary responses are considered, it may be that few, if any, corals will actually suffer harm from increases in these two phenomena. In fact, many coral species could well benefit from the warmer ocean temperatures and higher atmospheric CO2 concentrations predicted for the years and decades ahead.
One of the standard excuses for the team to ignore Antarctic sea ice has been the Arctic is losing sea ice much faster than the Antarctic has been gaining it. As is normally the case with climate experts, they have no cluewhat they are talking about. The graph below shows Antarctic sea ice in red, and Arctic sea ice in green.
Not one of these people did their jobs: the professor did not write the book himself, the assistant plagiarized instead of researching, the dean and the committee did not hold the professor accountable, and all ended up rewarded. By contrast, for example, learned papers and distinguished careers in climatology at MIT (Richard Lindzen) or UVA (S. Fred Singer) are not enough for their questions about "global warming" to be taken seriously. For our ruling class, identity always trumps.
Clouds have an albedo effect that exceeds the green house effect so the net effect of clouds is cooling.
And it has the standard picture of stacks with white smoke coming out of them, so we will see the carbon pollution.
Getting higher crop yields per unit of water used in the process of obtaining them will be a key element of mankind's struggle to feed our ever-increasing numbers over the next four decades, when our food needs are expected to double (Parry and Hawkesford, 2010); and with both land and water shortages looming on the horizon, we are going to need all of the help we can possibly get to grow the extra needed food. Fortunately, the results of this meta-analysis coming out of Belgium point to one important avenue by which such very substantial help can come, but it will only come if the air's CO 2 content is allowed to rise unimpeded .
Even so, Australians now know that China has a charming and formidable leader who visited the country and offered something of value to Canberra.
A major conclusion of our analysis is that there are large uncertainties associated with the surface temperature trends from the poorly-sited stations. Moreover rather than providing additional independent information, the use of the data from poorly-sited stations provides a false sense of confidence in the robustness of the surface temperature trend assessments.
Dow, through AEA, now writes on its website that it opposes "unfettered" free trade and urges "caution." It's hoping to indefinitely delay a final decision by the DOE and the Administration.
?Subsequent evidence? Need to convince readers that there really has been
Global Warming / Environment / Energy:
However, the exclusion stipulates that all large-scale field tests, as well as any field release of biotech organisms involving unusual species or novel modifications, still generally require an Environmental Assessment or EIS. But the list of excluded or included activities could be modified via notice-and-comment rulemaking in which the agency sets forth the complete analysis and rationale for excluding the activity. The USDA could propose categorical exclusions for some of the classes of genetically engineered crops with which it now has more than two decades' of pre-commercial and commercial experience, including herbicide-tolerant varieties of common crop species. But such carve-outs would leave intact NEPA's fundamentally flawed, process-based approach to biotechnology.
Lew said that the economy is strong and more resilient after 40 months of growth but the economic recovery is not fast enough, which led Chris Wallace on Fox News Sunday to ask whether approving the pipeline would help speed up job growth.
China had doubled its 2015 solar power goal to 10 GW after the Japanese nuclear power crisis.
Russia is demanding that it receive guarantees from the European Union and Japan that they will buy Russian carbon dioxide credits before it will agree to ratify the Kyoto Protocol, according to the Japanese newspaper, Yomiuri Shimbun (March 28, 2002). Kyoto supporters want the protocol to come into force before the World Summit on Sustainable Development in late August.
The fact that we found it difficult to discern warming trends at many stations that are not located in rapidly developing urban areas may indicate that the actual increase in global temperature caused by anthropogenic perturbation is less pronounced than estimated in the last IPCC Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change .
AR5 gives a likely (1783% probability) range for TCR of 1.02.5C, pretty much in line with the 595% CMIP5 model TCR range (from fitting a Normal distribution) but with a downgraded certainty level. How does that compare with the observational evidence in AR5? Figure 10.20a thereof, reproduced as Figure 2 here, shows various observationally based TCR estimates.
"The unemployment rate and the nation's increasingly precarious fiscal position its enormous budget deficits and its ballooning debt will be the dual points of emphasis in President Obama's second State of the Union address on Tuesday."
have eluded others for health reform, entitlement reform, climate change? Those
Put in such stark terms the choice isn't that difficult, Murray notes. "Marxism brought us the Gulags. The worst that most commentators can say about free enterprise these days is that it brought us McDonalds."
Elected: I'm now vice chair at my local UKIP branch
That's an odd position to take about the only viable technology capable of producing reliable, industrial-sized amounts of zero-emissions power. Either it betrays a fundamental misunderstanding about energy basics, or it suggests the president's pledge to move to a green economy is more about serving Democratic constituencies (environmentalists and labor unions) than about curbing emissions to save us from global warming and rising sea levels.
Unemployment will bring reduced nutrition, increased stress and higher rates of heart attack and stroke, spousal and child abuse, alcohol and drug abuse, suicide and premature death. The social, economic and health care costs will further "fundamentally transform" America, as President Obama says he is determined to do.
Rahmstorf is a real piece of work. When it comes to global sea level, he happily chucked the tide gauge data and instead used the 1992-2005 subset of the satellite data. But when it comes to local sea level data like the northeastern US, he happily ignores the satellite data and sticks religiously to tide gauge data.
Nice disection of the moral argument. However, it is surely best defeated by pointing out that CO2 is a fertilizer and good for the planet.
A linear fit to anomalies show warming from the 1971 through 2012 was approximately 0.16C/decade. In contrast the recent decadal trend ending in 2012 was -0.05C/dec. Moreover, the 11 and 12 year trends ending in 2012 are -0.05C/dec and -0.02 C/decade respectively. All 13-year or longer term trends ending in 2012 are positive.
Assessing the Agenda for Congress' First 100 Hours
"While Senator Claire McCaskil works to roll back the Clean Air Act
My own experience makes me skeptical of how environmental forecasting is being used. In 1991, several colleagues and I drew national and international attention when we used a computer model to forecast possible effects of global warming on an endangered species. Our computer program forecast that the Kirtland?s warbler, the first songbird in America ever subjected to a complete census, would likely face extinction by 2010. Its habitat, jack pine trees, would be unable to thrive in conditions that climate computer programs forecast for southern Michigan, the only place and only trees where the bird nested.
Bendigo News, sport and weather | Bendigo Advertiser
Nature CAN cope with climate change: Unusual behaviour of plants and animals suggests we??ve underestimated their ability to adapt, claim studies
If someone is still wondering why anyone would take these risks, or sees only a breach of privacy here, a few words
Instead of thinking as economists, we should think as international relations realists. In the realist school of thought, a man comports with another?s will only in proportion to the cudgel wielded over his head. We will not, solely through moral suasion, convince others to act against their own national interests.
There is a lot more 3+ metre thick ice than there was two years ago, when David Barber declared that all the multiyear ice was gone.
In Figure 2 of the blog article , CRU had displayed two chronology variations, falsely asserting that I had heavily promoted these versions as follows:
As of 1974, climate experts showed a strong temperature spike around 1940, followed by plummeting temperatures until the 1970s, with 1970 actually cooler than 1900.
Update January 24 2012 : There are other insightful discussions of this paper, including
3. INABILITY FOR GCM MODELS TO PROPERLY RESOLVE REGIONS OF OCEAN UPWELLING WHOSE COLD WATERS CAN ENHANCE THE OCEANIC UPTAKE OF CARBON DIOXIDE
(*This column has been edited lightly for clarity, May 22, 2013.)
6) Imports are constrained by the ICTs to France and Holland, which already running close to capacity. Unless investment is made to expand this capacity, then there is little room for increased imports. In any event, there is the question of how much spare capacity France or Holland would have during periods of high demand or low wind output.
He will argue that the 2008 Climate Change Act, which ties Britain into stringent targets to reduce the use of fossil fuels, should be suspended until other countries agree to take similar measures. If they refuse, the legislation should be scrapped altogether, he will say.
Kenneth P. Green, Steven F. Hayward, and Kevin A. Hassett, "Climate Change: Caps vs. Taxes," Environmental Policy Outlook, June 1, 2007. (Washington: American Enterprise Institute). Available at http://www.aei.org/publications/filter.all,pubID.26286/pub detail.asp.
A&N; then adds the excuses of trade winds, volcanic activity and solar activity give us cooling that hides the warming. As I recall volcanoes were an afterthought to explain the pause that the warmists denied. I seem to recall a number of denials of solar activity having any influence on the climate, except when they need it. Then we have excess heat being buried in deep ocean waters. All based on the theory that water, being less dense than cold water, sinks to the bottom.
The close of the cooling event is coincident with a major transition from zonal to mixed flow in the North Pacific, indicating once again a global-scale association between Antarctic and North Pacific climate. It was also coincident with the onset of the modern rise in CO2, which has been followed by the warmest temperatures of the last 700 years in West Antarctica, indeed possibly the warmest of the past 10,000 years.
Both domestic programs that subsidize risk-taking and international aid programs that subsidize risk taking should be phased out as quickly as possible, replaced with fully-priced insurance regimes. Eliminating risk subsidies would show people some of the true cost of living in climatically risky areas, and would, over time, lead them to move to climatically safer places where they can afford to insure their property and safety.
Still, Akasofu doesnt completely deny the existence of climate change, so much as question what causes it. One culprit he suggested is the recent lack of sunspots.
Heres the clip from todays World Bank media event announcing its new report on climate:
Moreover, measurement of carbon content, which would be required for tariffs or sanctions to be implemented, is costly. Most major products include components from many different countries involving many different production practices. Which ones should be the benchmarks? It seems obvious that there is great potential for protectionism and the loss of the many gains generated by international trade.
Australias antarctic runway melting | Island of Contrast
The roller coaster ride actually looked for a day like it might cross the 2009 line, but soon turned down again, ending this week at 5,142,813. Heres the recent JAXA data