Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
No model has ever successfully predicted any future climate sequence. Despite this, future projections for as far ahead as several hundred years have been presented by the IPCC as plausible future trends, based on largely distorted storylines, combined with untested models.
Image source: National Snow and Ice Data Center via the WUWT sea ice page .
and I'll now show the unique numeric solutions perfectly reproduce within 0.28C the temperature at every height in the 1976 Standard Atmosphere database from the surface all the way to ~11,000 meters height, after which the atmosphere at < ~0.223 atmospheres (units) becomes too thin to sustain convection and the equation no longer applies. This is near the transition between the troposphere and tropopause, which is where Robinson & Catling, Nature 2014, demonstrated the transition begins due to loss of convection, not greenhouse gas radiative forcing. Above the tropopause transition level (which is isothermal for several km), increased greenhouse gases cause increased cooling .
17 Behold, thou art called a Jew, and restest in the law, and makest thy boast of God,
The earths climate is largely controlled by the suns radiation. The current and anticipated sun (-spot) activity, i.e . energy received by earth from the sun, will be below normal for the next decades .
This piece originally appeared in WSJ's Marketwatch
Southern Europe will be gripped by fierce heatwaves, drought in North Africa will be more common, and small island states face ruinous storm surges from rising seas, a report by United Nations climate scientists says. The assessment is the most comprehensive yet by the 194-nation Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change into the impact of climate change on extreme weather events. A 20-page draft summary for policymakers says that global warming will create weather on steroids, and that these amped-up events cyclones, heatwaves, diluvian rains, drought will hit the world unevenly. Marlowe Hood, Agence France-Presse, 14 November 2011
"Canada is -- like it or not, take it or leave it -- a country founded on Christian principles..."
Wall Street agreed. According to Mother Jones, in 2006, Wall Street "worried that even a small increase in investment in non-oil alternatives would distract BP's focus from its core businessoil." Commentators and analysts began mocking BP as being "Beyond Profits."
I can only conclude you would rather sit in the dark and bitch, smugging about price gougers getting spanked and threatening the limited allowed approved licensed union dues paying utility workers for not having feather bedded enough in the last 50 years to be able to cover this as Business as usual.
34568 Federal Register / Vol. 79, No. 116 / Tuesday, June 17, 2014 / Proposed Rules
To some extent, our findings demonstrate that whatever happens to Earth, she will recover, and recover at a rapid pace, Bao said. Mother Earth lived and life carried on even in the most devastating situation. The only difference is the life composition afterwards. In other words, whatever humans do to the Earth, life will go on. The only uncertainty is whether humans will still remain part of the life composition.
Environmental scientists are cast in the role of priests, the trust in their narrow expertise extended to other areas of fact and value. Most scientists dont like that. Some quite enjoy it. The concept of planetary boundaries seems to be designed to make environmental scientists the final arbiters in politics, much like the Pope was once in Europe and the Guardian Council is in Iran.
Climate models suggest they should be increasing, 110 years of real world data indicate otherwise?? Read More
Ocean SST as measured by PDO, AMO, ocean heat content and ENSO cycles and pressure changes as measured by AO and NAO are all pointing to a future cooling planet. AMO has gone negative in November 2011 for the first time since early 2009. Time will tell whether this is just the normal seasonal dip or a long-term pattern. This cooler AMO, if sustained through the winter, could signify cooler weather for the US east coast and Western Europe. Several severe storms have already happened this fall on both sides of the Atlantic.
And how he crows at the news of Abraham's "evisceration" of my Minnesota speech.
4. According to Marlo Lewis in A Skeptics Guide to the Inconvenient Truth ** tide gauge records show that sea levels at Tuvalu actually fell during the latter half of the 20th Century. This is an island often quoted as being lost to rising sea levels including in Al Gores book also called An Inconvenient Truth where there is a two-page photograph and reference to the islands of Funafuti and Tuvalu and residents having to evacuate their homes because of rising seas.
A veteran Palestinian negotiator complains: "It's as though you ask me to sit and discuss the future of this table, but as we talk you are slicing away the pieces of the table."
Science is about developing theories and then continually challenging those theories through observation and accumulation of real world data. Yet, a myopic focus on a single variable (fossil energy use, in this case) excludes a wide range of other valid perspectives and ignores critical factors and. As a result, the resulting conclusions are unbalanced and make faulty foundations for policy recommendations.
And while were on the subject of Svensmark and cosmic rays, Anthony on Facebook linked to an interesting series of videos in which Svensmark and Nir Shaviv are both interviewed. First three parts are excellent, will get to watch the remainder soon. There doesnt appear to be a date, but from the upload information, it was made prior to the results of the CLOUD experiment.
Figure 6 presents the long-term hindcasts and projections of outgoing shortwave radiation, but this time in anomaly form, referenced to the 1996-2015 base years. The use of anomalies allows a better visual comparison of the modeled changes before and after the transition from hindcast to forecast. Obviously, there are very wide ranges in the hindcasted and forecasted trends in model-simulated outgoing shortwave radiation. Again, note how the model mean shows increasing outgoing shortwave radiation in the past and a decrease in the future.
I tend to agree that these adjustments are likely to have made the warming trend look higher and the case for global warming more robust than the most accurate data would manage. However, I am not quite certain about the size and relevance of this effect and I feel very uncomfortable about many climate skeptics' knee-jerk emotional reaction showing that they hate the very idea of an adjustment.
Might Brown or his successor pay it back? Who knows. Even if they do pay back the loan, that wont undo the consequences: as environmentalists point out, the loan will delay the implementation of various programs that were intended to cut GHG emissions in the near-term, a delay that wont be recouped even if the loan is repaid.
Climate Depot releases 321 page report over 1,000 skeptical scientists
critics of Obama's Iran policy is that he has imposed much tougher sanctions on Iran than his
And Bush was excited about our ability to make ethanol as well:
But a scientific moment of clarity is now prevailing: The U.N. and Congress do not have the power to legislate, tax or regulate the weather.
It also appears that other experienced and reputable scientists such as Hans Jelbring, Harry Dale Huffman and many others have previously pointed out the errors of the climate consensus in failing to give due weight to the Gas Laws which represent much longer established settled science than the relatively recent speculations about the supposed thermal properties of greenhouse gases.
There are reasons to assume that marine life will not be overly affected by an increase in ocean acidity due to atmospheric carbon dioxide:
Bank plan would help build bridges, boost jobs:
I agree that there's something ugly about the police, even local police, asking citizens for their "papers" (there's nothing particularly ugly about asking illegal immigrants for their papers, though). There's also something ugly about American citizens' being physically searched at airports. There's something ugly about IRS agents' prying into nearly all of your personal financial transactions or, thanks to the passage of Obamacare, serving as health-insurance enforcers.
Really now, you've got to be kidding me. Your link doesn't even mention this article. You're going to have to show actual proof that it is peer-reviewed, and if it is my opinion of the peer-review process in climate "science" will sink to a new all-time low. I didn't even mention many other flaws in this article, including not defining the word "significant" in the polling question. For many other flaws read the 100+ comments over at WUWT.
A new assessment of global mean sea level from altimeters highlights a reduction of global trend from 2005 to 2008
Regardless, the automakers have little choice but to develop and try to push more hybrids as they prepare for fuel-efficiency requirements that call for significant increases later this decade. Advances such as Fords EcoBoost technology have increased mileage for gas-powered engines the new Fusion midsize sedan it unveiled Monday can get 37 miles to the gallon, Ford said but bigger gains are needed. (NYT)
Now just so you can compare numbers, nuclear power plants cost about $2000 per kW or $2 billion for a plant to reliably produce the nameplate capacity of the massive Indiana windfarms 1000 MW of electricity at 90% operation capacity with a 40 year life. Ill do a more complete post on nuclear power later but just from this simple fact, the nuclear plant starts out looking a hell of a lot better.
We are getting more intense rainfall events as the earth warms , but its difficult to pin down any individual event, he told AAP.
She explained at the time: "When the earth gets warmer, more water evaporates into the atmosphere. Warmer air holds more water, and if you look around the planet, our humidity at a global scale has increased already by over four percent. So, there is more water up in the air. That's why our rainfalls are often getting more extreme, especially in the warmer part of the country, because there is much more water in the air. Well, what happens when it's below freezing? It gets dumped out as snow."
Elevated levels of atmospheric CO2 also enable plants to better withstand the growth-retarding effects of various environmental stresses, including soil salinity, air pollution, high and low air temperatures, and air-borne and soil-borne plant pathogens. In fact, atmospheric CO2 enrichment can actually mean the difference between life and death for vegetation growing in extremely stressful circumstances. In light of these facts, it is not surprising that Earths natural and managed ecosystems have already benefited immensely from the increase in atmospheric CO2 that has accompanied the progression of the Industrial Revolution; and they will further prosper from future CO2 increases.
Also in South Africa, researchers are working on insect-resistant biotech potatoes for Africa's millions of small highland farmers who can't afford pesticides. USAID is collaborating with Michigan State University and the South African Research Council. The project has foundered amidst regulatory disputes between South Africa's agricultural researchers and its environmental regulators.
(As an aside, if Miliband was serious about massive and quick expansion of nuclear, which he would need to set in motion soon after the election, I assume he would have offered it as a definite strategy by now. The history of the Blair and Brown Governments would suggest that, instead, there will be much prevarication.)
From Laframboises Citizen Audit: Of the 18531 references in the 2007 Climate Bible we found 5,587 a full 30% to be non peer-reviewed.
Fax: +61 (0)8 9881 5585
What you see if you do a linear regression is a cooling trend by 0.49 ??F = 0.27 ??C per decade. The cooling between 2006 and 2008 was more dramatic: from 55 ??F to 53 ??F, by a whopping two degrees Fahrenheit!
But now scientists claim that warming of the planet is in fact behind a paradoxical growth in South Pole sea ice.
By Ben Wolfgang, Washington Times, Aug 6, 2015
So if I dont believe that the warmer ocean can be substantially warmed by radiation from cooler air floating over it, on the basis that a warmer object will always heat a cooler object, its a rejection of science. That is itself unscientific however, it would be scientific to produce evidence of the alleged warming.
Regulators and energy companies met Tuesday, hoping to hash out a solution to the peculiar stresses placed on the state's network by sharp increases in wind and solar energy. Power production from renewable sources fluctuates wildly, depending on wind speeds and weather.
The cap-and-trade bill will do little to cut greenhouse gas emissions, since it contains so many special interest giveaways and environmentally-destructive provisions like subsidies for ethanol . Instead, notes the Examiner , it will result in massive destruction of the Earth??s forests. Although the bill??s supporters claim it will cut greenhouse gas emissions, it may perversely increase them by driving industry overseas to places where there are fewer air pollution curbs, resulting in dirtier air.
The first explanation that comes to my mind is a change in daytime convective mixing of the troposphere. If there is a slight increase in the depth of convective mixing, then drier (lower dewpoint) air aloft will be mixed down toward the surface. Such a change would probably also be associated with deeper moist convection and probably an increase in heavy rain rates, evidence for which has been claimed elsewhere (e.g. here ). The implication of such a change for climate feedbacks is complicated and not obvious.
> >> >>The Bank would commission a study estimating weather-related
The naive assumption of policymakers that Europe?s main competitors would follow the shift from cheap fossil fuels to expensive green energy has not materialised. Europe, The Washington Post recently warned, ?has become a green-energy basket case. Instead of a model for the world to emulate, Europe has become a model of what not to do.?
Forecasters predict barbecue summer to rival 2003 as temperatures rocket to 27C tomorrow Telegraph
This post was written for persons who have seen my posts around the blogosphere for the past three and a half years, or have seen other bloggers discussing them, and have wondered what I was yakking on and on aboutwith the El Nio this and La Nia that. This post is a basic, down-to-Earth discussion of the causes of the warming of global sea surface temperatures over the past 30 years. Its how data, not models, account for the warming. Ive tried to make it as non-technical as possible.
A paper by the same author finds we are nowhere near a "tipping point" regarding Arctic Sea Ice
Date: April 3, 2010 Time: 10:00 am Central DST To Listen: Visit our BlogTalkRadio Page Call 646-727-3170 to ask a question. /p>
In fact, though, a recent Brookings Institution study by Charles Frank shows that the main effect of a carbon tax would be to induce power companies to switch from coal to natural gas. Even with a hefty price on carbon emissions, the study shows, today's wind and solar power sources cannot compete with natural gas. Now, maybe more switching from coal to natural gas would be a good thing, and maybe not, but it certainly does not amount to the great surge in innovation about which Mr. Paulson is fantasizing.
A suggestion the Great Gale of 1821 was worse than Hurricane Sandy, and Alarmists are wrong to suggest otherwise.
Now, you Keith complain about the way we introduced our result, while saying it
Joint letter to NASA Administrator blasts agencys policy of ignoring empirical evidence
??self-evidently? dangerous climate change will not emerge from a normal scientific process of truth-seeking?scientists ? and politicians ? must trade truth for influence.
More reading to observe the green "holy day' Earth Day
The second thing the large range of modeled energy imbalances reminded me of: there is a similar large range in the modeled global surface temperatures in absolute form. See the graph here from the post On the Elusive Absolute Global Mean Surface Temperature A Model-DataComparison . The span of the modeled surface temperatures in 2010 was more than 3 deg C, and thats about 3 times greater than Earths surfaces have warmed since pre-industrial times according to the (much-fiddled-with) observations-based data.
Over time, the UN's New Urban Agenda will see decision-making authority shifted from individuals and local governments to regional councils. These regional councils will be stacked with a smattering of elected officials joined by assorted "stakeholders." These stakeholders will be composed of green groups, housing advocates, officials from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), and other busybodies. It is they who will rewrite local zoning ordinances, land-use laws, and transportation policies.
Earth to looney left. A record cold winter is the wrong time to be picking a global warming fight.
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My Comments On A New Paper Climate Drift In The CMIP3 Models By Sen Gupta Et Al 2012
her colleague's remarks than vice versa, stares down her colleague
The all-clear signal on the hurricane front is another setback for the IPCC. In keeping with lead author Kevin Trenberths predictions, the IPCC report warned that there would be more hurricanes in a greenhouse climate. One of the graphs in the IPCC report is particularly mysterious. Without specifying a source, the graph suggestively illustrates how damage caused by extreme weather increases with rising average temperatures.
He quotes extensively from Mike Hulme, the guy who set up the Tyndall Centre with help from Pachauri, here are just a few prime examples:
CSIROh!: Climate of Deception? ... Or First Step to Freedom?
The survey found that the views that Americans hold about a wide range of these issues are, in key ways, inaccurate. Significant numbers of people appear to misunderstand such crucial matters as:
Fossil fuels--hydrocarbons--are part hydrogen, part carbon. Both elements burn nicely. Your charcoal barbecue burns pure carbon; the Space Shuttle's main engine burns pure hydrogen. The carbon, which becomes carbon dioxide when you burn it, is what the climate models link to global warming.
Hope all is well with you and all the best to all. Glad you enjoyed the paper.
Read here . The IPCC, its climate models and its Climategate scientists have become infamous for flat-out, dreadful, incorrect climate predictions. A prominent prediction of an increase in severe weather due to global warming (ie, climate change) was made long ago, yet all the empirical research keeps confirming the lack of an increase. (click on image for more info)
Singer reveals he assumes CO 2 warms Earth because it is called a greenhouse gas, which does not make it so.
The two westerly wind bursts shown in red in the western equatorial Pacific in 2014 are associated with the downwelling Kelvin wave, and the westerly bursts in March and May 1982 are associated with the Kelvin wave that year. (See the post ENSO Basics: Westerly Wind Bursts Initiate an El Nio .) Note how in 1982, as the June progressed through December, the negative wind stresses decreased (associated with a weakening of the trade winds), with the neutral whites expanding eastward. Also note the repeated westerly wind bursts in the western equatorial Pacific from June through November, with the big one in November 1982. Those westerly wind bursts throughout 1982 continued to help push warm water from the western equatorial Pacific into the east, strengthening the 1982/83 El Nio.
CEI Weekly is a compilation of articles and blog posts from CEI's fellows and associates sent out via e-mail every Friday. Also included in the Weekly newsletter is a brief description of CEI's weekly podcast and a feature on a major CEI breakthrough made during the week. To sign up for CEI Weekly, go to http://cei.org/newsletters. CEI WeeklyNovember 6, 2009 >>CEI Blasts Antitrust Lawsuit Against Intel
The news of melting on the runway broke last summer over nine months ago.
Having established scale and urgency, the political challenge is then to turn
Without a successful validation procedure, no model should be considered to be capable of providing a plausible prediction of future behaviour of the climate.
"Law enforcement organizations are making tens of thousands of requests for private electronic information from companies such as Sprint, Facebook and AOL, but few detailed statistics are available, according to a privacy researcher."
In fact, scientists can no more accurately predict long-range future climate shifts than they can predict earthquakes, volcanic eruptions or drought; in the same way science cannot definitively account for past ice ages, meteor strikes or the Big Bang. Theories, yes; facts, no.
Effect of Cloud-Scattered Sunlight on Earth's Energy Balance Depends on Wavelength of Light
#3 Temperatures have dropped or stayed flat for the last 10 years. This is absolutely in opposition to climate predictions of 10, 5, 3, 1 years ago. The earth has not followed the predictions of the climate models
So we may yet be saved. But at best, we are in for years of investment and job-killing uncertainty.
Finally John, your statements attributing later fall coolings and earlier spring bloomings as evidence of global warming lack example and specificity needed in order to frame a substantive response. One very plausible explanation could be attributed to CO2 fertilization. Notwithstanding the matter of where and when these conditions arise, CO2 increases most certainly benefit agriculture. By the same token, if there is no reliably measurable evidence of global warming from thermometers, those undocumented species migrations you alluded to prove nothing either.
In the dogmatically blind worlds of liberalism and environmentalism, the truth is irrelevant
Soon after Climategate broke last November, Penn State convened an internal committee to investigate Mann, the primary author of the now-infamous and discredited "hockey stick" global warming graph.
This analysis surely casts huge doubt on Elsners conclusions, based as they are on such a short period.
Establishing what caused Earths largest climatic changes in the past requires a precise knowledge of both the forcing and the regional responses. Here we establish the chronology of high and low latitude climate change at the last glacial termination by 14C dating benthic and planktonic foraminiferal stable isotope and Mg/Ca records from a marine core collected in the western tropical Pacific. Deep sea temperatures warmed by ~2C between 19 and 17 ka B.P. (thousand years before present), leading the rise in atmospheric CO2 and tropical surface ocean warming by ~1000 years. The cause of this deglacial deep water warming does not lie within the tropics, nor can its early onset between 19-17 ka B.P. be attributed to CO2 forcing. Increasing austral spring insolation combined with sea-ice albedo feedbacks appear to be key factors responsible for this warming.
I received a hard copy of this long and detailed report by three Navy flag officers retired.
According to (1) , construction of a pH profile for the middle Eocene tropical Pacific Ocean shows that atmospheric pCO 2 was probably similar to modern concentrations or slightly higher .
"The agency expressed concern that the nuclear expertise that exists today might not be passed on to the next generation of scientists and engineers, now that the rapid nuclear expansion of the 1970s and 1980s has leveled off."
Vasseurs research shows water temperatures rising almost a decade earlier than expected.
Note also that only a handful of early credit bills were introduced, all in the 105th, 106th, and 109th Congresses, and all went nowhere. None ever garnered more than 15 co-sponsors, none was marked up in committee, and none made it to a floor vote in the House or Senate.
The approximation suggest the following change in global temperature with changes in global pressure: