Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
The key question here is clearly what fraction of the observed impacts of climate change that the IPCC identifies is human-caused and how much natural. Lets see if we can put some probabilities on this.
The authors conclude that "the combination of higher root yields at elevated CO 2 combined with a decrease in root decomposition will lead to a longer residence time of C in the soil and probably to a higher C storage." These facts, they say, "should be taken into account in models predicting the fate of C under different scenarios for climatic change." And so they should; for this is a phenomenon that cannot be ignored in this most important enterprise.
Well, perhaps such people exist; prigs and bullies can be found on almost any side of any dispute. But at their best, religion and environmentalism interconnect in a much more positive way. Both invite people to think far beyond the particular physical space and moment in time which they happen to occupy. Both encourage virtues such as caution and self-restraint in the face of uncertaintyvalues which are absent from most political discourse, and are hard to fit into any electoral cycle. Traditional societies used to have rites and beliefs which affirmed a sense of connectedness with past generations and responsibility for future generations; such a sense is absent from the short-term calculus of secular politics and economics. Lord Lawson may be quite right to say that the decline of Marxism and organised Christianity has pushed people towards concern for the planet. But that doesnt mean the concern is foolish.
At its most tightly coupled, T is the radiative temperature of the Earth. However, the outgoing longwave radiation is proportional to T**4. A 1C increase in the polar latitudes in the winter, for example, would have much less of an effect on the change of longwave emission than a 1C increase in the tropics. The spatial distribution matters, whereas Equation (1) ignores the consequences of this assumption. A more appropriate measure of global heat content would be to evaluate the change of the global average of T**4
One consequence of the nations non-attainment with NAAQS for GHGs is that EPA would have to regulate major stationary CO 2 sourcesunder the Non-Attainment New Source Review (NNSR) pre-construction permitting program, which is more stringent than PSD. The NNSR cutoff for regulation as a major source is 100 TYP, not 250 TPY as would be the case for most PSD-regulated stationary sources.NNSR-regulated entities must comply with Lowest Achievable Emission Rate (LAER) standards, the most stringent in EPAs arsenal. Moreover, major sources would haveto offset any emissions increase from a new or modified source by reducing emissions from an existing source somewhere else. Roughly speaking, nothing could be built or expanded anywhere in the United States unless something else shuts downa de-facto moratorium on growth.
At any rate, the LFCS called Mr Boslough has bashed the "contrarians" and especially Judith Curry, a renegade, who was given an exemption and she could explain the detailed reasons why LFCS named Michael Mann is an... Apologies, this whole sentence had to be completely omitted because there's no way to be more than 3% honest and to preserve at least 3% of the usual standards of politeness at the same moment.
This derivation of (t) does not assume any given equilibrium between ingress and egress; the only hypothesis made is that the absorption grows with due to fertilization of the air by CO 2 : more food, bigger plants and quicker growth, more leafs and so on; see on notice n2 in the footnotes the references of some observations made during the last fifty years.
Four years ago, the UK Climate Change Act was passed, committing the UK to huge economic upheaval and a cost, on the governments own figures, of 18 billion a year.
Clive Hamilton who breaks tenets of science, good manners, and any semblance of reason spins up a preposterous claim that The Australian is attacking science, and strangely the national masthead almost seems to be hurt by it.
Fewer Americans See Solid Evidence of Global Warming
PRESS RELEASE: Heartland Institute Reacts to U.S. Supreme Court Ruling on Greenhouse Gases
ExxonMobil took a different course. In 2005, then-CEO Lee Raymond, said: "What all these people are thinking about doing, we did 20 years agoand spent $1 billion, in dollars of that day, to find out that none of these were economic." "In the late 1970s, as oil prices skyrocketed, Exxon diversified into an array of fossil-fuel alternatives, including nuclear and solar energy." "After several years, Exxon still couldn't see prospects for renewable energy turning into a moneymaker, especially since oil prices were falling in the 1980s. In the mid-1980s, the company decided to get out of the business."
If McKitrick et al shows that the IPCC global computer models cant model the present and therefore the future, Professor Demetrius Koutsoyiannis and his team show those models cant even model the past
"Specifically, in scenario A CO2 increases as observed by Keeling for the interval 1958-1981 and subsequently with a 1.5%/yr growth of the annual increment."
Setting out to update that analysis, Zhao and Running expected to see similar results as global average temperatures have continued to climb. Instead, they found that the impact of regional drought overwhelmed the positive influence of a longer growing season, driving down global plant productivity between 2000 and 2009. The team published their findings Aug. 20 in Science.
Let's begin with the case that libertarian Republicans make, a tale that often starts with blue-state governors. They remind us that states well outside the reach of GOP presidential candidates have in the last decade elected pro-choice Republicans as governors. Republicans such as Arnold Schwarzenegger, George Pataki, Mitt Romney, and Linda Lingle have won statewide in California, New York, Massachusetts, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Vermont, and even Barack Obama's Hawaii. All ran as fiscal conservatives and social moderates, and all succeeded where GOP presidential nominees got creamed.
Methods 1 & 2 have identical (alpha) errors. So, I consider the method with the minimum error superior, as it is gives the least, overall, number of errors. This is why I average over all instruments. Method 3 is deficient as method to test the IPCC hypothesis, and merely gives some sense of the uncertainty due to measurement noise without regard to weather noise.
Accelerating sea levels swamping the world's coastal regions is the "bread & butter" fear of global warmista scientists - tide gauge station empirical evidence however does not support the CAGW predictions (hysteria)
Do these people ever get tired of being complete morons?
Great news from Van Jones: America is not broke:
Eventually, other astronomers recalculate the asteroid?s path and find serious mistakes in the original work. They conclude that the likelihood of an impact any time in the next few centuries is minuscule. By this time, however, the ?stop asteroid impact? movement is highly popular among opinion leaders, and international consultations are well underway. The Bureau of Asteroid Deflection is fully funded, and money is pouring into science and engineering research establishments. Not surprisingly, the trajectory corrections are ignored.
If I need my car repaired, I do not take it to a dentist. If I am seeking advice about the climate I check out what climatologists and meteorologists are saying, at least those who have not sold their souls to the global warming/climate change hoax.
Steve, Im horrified by your slipshod work. You did not define what you compare, what dataset used in each case, how data were processed, and what was the reason for that, what limitation there are, what kind of additional information you need to know. Why didnt you ask me for all the details? You even arent ashamed of using information from stolen letters. Do carelessness, grubbiness, dishonourableness are the necessary concomitants of your job? With disrespect
Yet the inefficient, intermittent, and uneconomical "clean technologies" are not what made America "strong and free." America became a superpower on the basis of energy that was abundant, available, and affordable. Now, in the cause of climate change, we want to deny developing countries the same benefits we've had?
Barely twelve months after its Meteorological Office said the 2009-10 winter was the coldest in three decades, Britain endured its coldest December-January since 1683. Because the United Kingdom's ultra green energy policies have driven heating costs into the stratosphere, British pensioners rode buses or spent all day in libraries to stay warm, then shivered all night in their apartments. Tens of thousands risked hypothermia, trying to control costs by bundling up and turning the heat down or off. Many died.
Regardless of your position on any policy issue, the right to voice your opinion is a unique and fundamental element of American democracy. But today, Americans' right to free speech is under attack by government officials.
This lack of accountability and transparency strikes at the heart of China's credibility in any global climate change agenda. Wen would not want foreign experts reporting to political masters in America and Europe that Beijing's capacity for compelling local officials and locally managed, state-controlled enterprises some 120,000 companies and countless other subsidiaries to implement climate change initiatives is extremely low. This would simply strengthen suspicions that decentralised China cannot actually honour future commitments despite promises that it intends to.
A novelty from the ocean's depths is that some species seem to benefit from more carbon dioxide is absorbed by the oceans, just tvrtemot previously emerged.
As a precursor to a potentially very costly competition, Reagan's proposed Strategic Defense Initiative indeed was crucial but it was far from heralding a military defeat, given that the Kremlin knew very well that effective deployment of space-based defenses was decades away. Similarly, though the 1980 peaceful anti-communist uprising of the Polish workers had been a very disturbing development for Soviet leaders, underscoring the precariousness of their European empire, by 1985 Solidarity looked exhausted. The Soviet Union seemed to have adjusted to undertaking bloody "pacifications" in Eastern Europe every 12 years Hungary in 1956, Czechoslovakia in 1968, Poland in 1980 without much regard for the world's opinion.
Markey has actually called for the construction of new pipelines to bring gas from Pennsylvania but its falling on deaf ears in the natural gas industry, which has been the focus of his relentless attacks for years. Such are the real-life consequences of anti-shale gas politics.
Today the door has been pushed back somewhat, with a new paper in Energy Economics by a multinational team of authors led by Zuzana Irsova of Charles University in Prague (there is a preprint here ). She and her colleagues have been looking into published estimates of the social cost of carbon and find good evidence of a strong publication bias. You can probably guess which direction the bias is in:
On Monday, newly arrived government ministers begin applying political weight to talks being held in Cancun, as the 193-nation U.N. climate conference moves into its decisive final week.
By Jo Nova, Her Blog, Aug 12, 2015
EPAs Punitive, Fraudulent Clean Power Plan
Dear Steve, the satellite record measures a different quantity than the weather-station-based global mean temperature, so there is no good reason to think that their graphs and trends should agree. In other words, the disagreement between these two different types of datasets doesnt imply that there is a mistake in either of them.
The NSR policy changes recommended by EPA, if put into practice, would not compromise air quality. We are skeptical that NSR has had a major positive effect on air quality since 1977, so predictions that EPA's proposed reforms would result in substantial increases in emissions41 strike us as partisan rhetoric, not analysis. The air quality goals and standards for protecting public health and the environment remain intact, and those aspects of the current program that unintentionally increase emissions by discouraging investments in energy efficiency would be avoided.
How the Center for American Progress campaigned to suppress speech
You can say that again! Climatologists are no Einsteins . But it wasnt me that said it, it was a successor of Einstein himself at Princeton University, Freeman Dyson.
Evidence abounds that the Administration is pursuing a strategy of implementation without ratification. During the Kyoto conference, Vice President Gore said: "Whether there is an agreement in Kyoto or not, the United States is prepared, under President Clinton's leadership, to unilaterally take steps that we believe should be taken to deal with this problem." If Mssrs. Clinton and Gore were prepared to take unilateral steps before there was a Kyoto Protocol, why should we suppose they are not willing to do so now?
By spring 2011, we should see a large increase in multi-year ice. The remaining blue ice in the map above will become green multi-year ice. The only things which could prevent this now would be an asteroid impact or strong winds which blow the ice out into the North Atlantic over the winter.
This approach is a more robust and inclusive approach than by relying on the global models as the tool to use for planning. The costs of using the global models as the assessment tool should be redirected to these other assessment approaches given by #1 through #3.
Paul Chesser of North Carolina's John Locke Foundation has a useful article in today's Washington Times about how one advocacy group, funded by leftist foundations, is taking over state policy decision-making on global warming:
Scientists predicted summer sea ice would shrink, but they underestimated the trend. Now in late summer, much of the Arctic Ocean is open water; summer ice covers about half what it did 30 years ago.
Prohibiting the EPA and other agencies from regulating greenhouse gas emissions and prohibiting the EPA and other agencies from using any funds to promulgate or enforce any regulation intended to mitigate global warming unless it is expressly authorized to do so by Congress.
Over the last three decades, five IPCC assessment reports, dozens of computer models, scores of conferences and thousands of papers focused almost entirely on human fossil fuel use and carbon dioxide/greenhouse gas emissions, as being responsible for dangerous global warming, climate change, climate disruption, and almost every extreme weather or climate event. Tens of billions of dollars have supported these efforts, while only a few million have been devoted to analyses of all factors natural and human that affect and drive planetary climate change.
Proclaiming that the study affirms the reality of catastrophic global warming will only further confuse the issue. As with other reports on climate issues, most notably the United Nations' Third Assessment Report, the qualifications and uncertainties in which scientists couch their claims go unnoticed or ignored when the findings are repeated for the benefit of policy makers and the general public.
As a reminder, the outgoing shortwave radiation represents a portion of the incoming sunlight thats reflected back to space, primarily by clouds and volcanic aerosols. Where incident shortwave radiation is basically an input, outgoing shortwave radiation is a model-calculated value.
Think about what Curry vs. Mann would accomplish. As Curry admits, ?I have at least as good a case against Michael Mann for defamation as he has against Steyn.? So this would put Mann is a bind: if he wins against Steyn, he establishes a precedent for his own loss to Curry. If no one can criticize him under the Bill Murray rule??Back off, man, I?m a scientist??then he can?t criticize others.
This example is from Victoria, not New South Wales, but sea level must have roughly the same rises and falls all over the world. So the whole world should be alarmed, not just New South Wales. Indeed the IPCC and CSIRO try to alarm the world with stories of drowning of low islands, like Tuvalu. But detailed mapping has shown that Tuvalu, and many other coral islands, have actually grown over the past 20 years.
Oh, and it's all taking off! Greg Laden weighs in here . Briggs reports that he has posted a comment on it (it hasn't appeared yet though). Oooh!
And we can see the direct impact of that as a big jump in OLR OUTGOING IR. CO2 be damned.
Corporate managers should not allow themselves to be bullied and extorted by a small group of manipulative, ill-willed, and know-nothing activists. CEOs owe it to their shareholders, employees and customers to stand up to eco-intimidation. They should insist that environmental controversies be resolved with the actual facts rather than activist pretensions.
We know from Climategate emails that CRU were reading CA posts at the time. Further, the contemporary responses of Briffa and Melvin first conceded that I had raised a number of valid points that require further investigation and then, in their second much more detailed response shortly before Climategate, Briffa and Melvin stated that it is important to examine the robustness of RCS chronologies, involving the type of sensitivity testing that McIntyre has undertaken. This latter article repeatedly used the term sensitivity to describe my analyses.
DR. SPENCER: Well, I think that this has got to contribute to it. Although I couldn't find where they explicitly mention this. That the cloud forcing has gone way down. I don't know why they didn't mention that, because the graph indicates it. This value here of one on this scale is where the cloud forcing equals the CO2 radiant forcing so if basically doubles the effect. And clearly the average cloud forcing has gone way down, although they don't mention that in the summary.
In 20th- and 21st-century simulations, antarctic sea ice cover is projected to decrease more slowly than in the Arctic (Figures 10.13 c,d and 10.14 ), particularly in the vicinity of the Ross Sea where most models predict a local minimum in surface warming. This is commensurate with the region with the greatest reduction in ocean heat loss, which results from reduced vertical mixing in the ocean (Gregory, 2000).
To me, the most significant thing that the Climategate emails show is that the deck is stacked against the publication of research results that are critical of the established scientific consensus and that the skids are greased for papers that run in support. It is little wonder why the literature is as one-sided as it is on the issue. The folks who are responsible for establishing the consensus have also taken it upon themselves to be the protectors of it. Not a good situation for the advancement of science.
I pay more and this is going to prevent global warming? Yeah right. Wrong bill at the wrong time for all of the wrong reasons.
Previous efforts at flood defence in Bangladesh have not solved the problems. In 1990, the first flood action plan called for barriers to be built along main rivers: in less than 10 years, some 3,500 kilometres of embankments sprang up. In 2000, the countrys focus shifted towards constructing more storm shelters and improving warning systems but even so, about three-quarters of Bangladeshs population remains exposed to severe flooding.
"What if climate change appears to be just mainly a multi-decadal natural fluctuation? They'll kill us probably."
Bruce Walker, frequent contributor to American Thinker discusses the problem we have put up at Junk Science many times, Federal Judges who usurp the Constitution by their pretense that they shall decide what the constitution means.
SM: Our A-Number-One issue is taxes. But we also stand for smaller government, and reducing regulation is certainly part of smaller government. I'll give you just one example of an issue that we're very interested in getting involved in, and that's this really insidious movement in Washington and California to regulate the prices of electricity and energy. This is a fundamental assault on capitalism. If you think about it, the price system is sacred. It's what makes the capitalist system work. It's extremely important that as a movement, we do everything to make the strongest possible case that price control is going to be a very destructive policy if it's allowed to stand.
The most interesting thing about the documents Chris obtained from Treasury are the bits that are redacted (see above). For example, a paragraph headed Overview says: "t will raise energy prices and impose annual costs on the order of ." Perhaps the folks in the FOIA Compliance Office at Treasury didn't get the January 21st memo from President Obama on increasing transparency in his administration. The memo says in part: "The Freedom of Information Act should be administered with a clear presumption: In the face of doubt, openness prevails. The Government should not keep information confidential merely because public officials might be embarrassed by disclosure, because errors and failures might be revealed, or because of speculative or abstract fears. Nondisclosure should never be based on an effort to protect the personal interests of Government officials at the expense of those they are supposed to serve."
One of Ronald Reagan's favorite quotes was Victor Hugo's observation that "no army can stop an idea whose time has come." And the idea Reagan had in mind was a less-interventionist government creating "a climate in which the entrepreneurial genius of the private sector can do what it does best ? namely, create new wealth, new possibilities of employment."
The Heartland Institute recognized the 10th anniversary of Al Gore's An Inconvenient Truth on Wednesday, August 31, 2016, when internationally renowned scientist, speaker, author and Heartland Institute Science Director Dr. Jay Lehr debated six of the film's claims with Dr. Scott Denning, atmospheric science professor at Colorado State University. (View the debate here.)
One ``sensitive nerve ending" is LOST's authority over land-based pollution. Article 207 of the treaty mandates: ``States shall adopt laws and regulations to prevent, reduce and control pollution of the marine environment from land-based sources.'' States also ``shall take other measures as may be necessary to prevent, reduce and control such pollution.''
The Team. Phil Jones, head of the CRU; Peter Thorne of the UK Met Office (the national weather service, originally the Meteorological Office) was joined by Kevin Trenberth, climate analysis section head of the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR); Tom Wigley, also of NCAR; and the litigious Penn State University Hockey Stick originator, Michael Mann.
Electricity from existing coal plants costs $38 per megawatt-hour; from new wind facilities, $106.
For the Obamians themselves, Iran was a challenge they anticipated during the 2008 campaign and recognized as a test of their approach. And since judgments of the
A little doggerel never hurt anybody. Thus, I have no compunction dedicating this poem to Anne Ehrlich , who has taken up her fathers burden of telling the world that it is nearly finished.
Mr. Weaver, after all, has been a major IPCC science insider for years. He is Canada Research Chair in Climate Modelling and Analysis at the University of Victoria, mastermind of one of the most sophisticated climate modelling systems on the planet, and lead author on two recent landmark IPCC reports.
Thanks to the Chief Toxicologist for Texas, Dr. Mike Honeycutt, for tipping me off.
Perhaps the most common assaults on growth relate to the environment. From a green perspective, the drive to accumulate more stuff strips the planet of scarce resources and poisons it with waste. Overconsumption is said to fill our homes with needless goods and even swell our bodies with cheap but unhealthy food. The American dream of plenty has become the American nightmare. Even worse, the planet's survival is said to be threatened as a result of runaway climate change.