Michaelyya/contrarian-claims huggingface dataset:
As the atmospheric CO 2 concentration increases, it is likely that wheat plants will begin to reap benefits from this phenomenon almost immediately after seedling emergence. Rising CO 2 levels should increase cell division and elongation, thus spurring leaf expansion and biomass production to a greater degree than what is occurring under today's ambient CO 2 concentration. Thus, it is likely that these collective responses will result in larger plants, which should also produce greater harvestable yields, as the CO 2 content of the air continues to rise.
on Monday, June 6th, 2011 at 8:45 pm and is filed under Uncategorized.
Hokitika : Was noted for grossly inaccurate readings in 1912, as well as 1919 and 1926. The enclosure was twice criticised as too small and was greatly expanded in 1928.
For many reasons, Keyness eminently sensible idea never caught on and instead, around the same time his book was published, probability theory bifurcated into two antithetical paths. The first was called frequentism : probability was defined to be that number which is the ratio of experiments in which A will be true divided by the total numbers of experiments as that number of experiments goes to infinity 1 . This definition makes it difficult (an academic word meaning impossible ) to answer what is the probability that Joe , our Joe, likes Butterfingers. It also makes it difficult to define the probability for any event or events that are constrained to occur less than an infinite number of times (so far, this is all events that I know of).
The US government says that the country has warmed significantly over the last 50 years due to rising greenhouse gases.
The talk-ocracy: The combined voices of Rush Limbaugh, Sean Hannity, and Laura Ingraham reach millions of Republicans five days a week, morning, noon, and night. As they proved during the failed immigration debate of 2007, they can torpedo ideas with great ease.
Chart 3 shows some of the industries that would see significant job gains as a result of a federal pro-energy policy.
EPA runs enormous political risks leading the charge for GHG regulations not approved by Congress. It is in the Agency's best interest not to oppose legislative action to overturn the endangerment finding and Mass. v. EPA.
13 But the tax collector stood at a distance. He would not even look up to heaven, but beat his breast and said, `God, have mercy on me, a sinner.
The problem with the ECGs is much the same as that with bridge. There are many variations of normal that can be influenced by all kinds of factors that have nothing to do with the heart. Nearly identical looking patterns can result from very different pathological conditions. So, once again, judgment comes into play with practically every ECG interpretation. It will always be so and I doubt that the computer programs will ever be able to achieve a level of accuracy much beyond what they offer now.
The commission is funded by several major foundations known for promoting the interests of the wealthy elite: the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and its partnersThe Pew Charitable Trusts, the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, the David and Lucile Packard Foundation, and the Energy Foundation.
12. Richard Lewontin, "Dishonesty in Science," New York Review of Books (November 18, 2004): 39.
For example, when scientists analyzed the relationship between atmospheric CO2 levels and temperatures dating back 250,000 years, inferred from ice cores drilled in Greenland and the Antarctic, they found that sometimes the concentration of CO2 was high when the temperature was low, and sometimes the CO2 was low when the temperature was high.9 Moreover, a careful analysis showed that some of the atmospheric CO2 changes did not precede the temperature changes, as the greenhouse warming theory would predict. Instead, changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide followed the temperature changes. The atmospheric CO2 changes were not the cause of the temperature changes; the CO2 changes were likely driven by vegetation changes in response to natural variations in air and sea-surface temperatures.
The Corn Ethanol Boondoggle Continues -- See the EPA's Latest Rule
How and why will temperature change in the next few decades? Future near-term climate change will vary because of both natural and anthropogenic influences. Her model predicts a warming of 0.4C by 2030.
to prevent competitors from getting funded or published. Like
Here is how a polar bear chooses inside a team of walruses . And another video shows how a seal needs some air . Bad luck.
Under what circumstances would politicians commit to leaving these funds to compensate a politically heterogeneous and unorganized constituency like the poor, rather than using them to finance narrow and more rewarding political agendas? Indeed, some far more cohesive and powerful industrieslike transportation and manufacturingwill be negatively affected by any GHG regulations. Local politicians will be quick to respond to their concerns. Any preferential regulations and exemptions to such harmed constituencies within countries in turn will undermine any global agreement.
Question: What are the quantitative trends in surface absolute humidity for the sites used to construct the global surface temperature trends, and what is the uncertainty that is introduced if this information is not available?
There are better, more cost-effective ways to improve and protect the nation's air quality.
Regardless, the empirical temperature observations that NASA documents clearly indicates that the monotonous increase in atmospheric CO2 levels have had little impact on long-term (30 years) temperature change.
Many developing countries are growing far more rapidly than are the developed ones that are asked in COP meetings like the one in Warsaw to assume most of the abatement costs. Those growing economies, however, are the major sources of new emissions. Populations in developing countries also are increasing, while in developed ones, population growth is far less and populations are aging with important implications for future economic growth, GHG emissions, and abilities to bear the costs of regulation.
by Bob Carter, David Evans, Stewart Franks & Bill Kininmonth
I felt she believed what she was saying but was left with the impression that she was pushing her own theory of arctic amplification and also the oceans absorbing the recent warming without any realisation that the statistics of extreme events appears to contradict much of where she is coming from.
What kind of circulation change could lock Europe into deadly summer heat waves
The recent paper of Allen et al. does a careful job of estimating errors in forward projections of global temperatures from earlier calculations on global circulation models of the atmosphere. Given the simple question are the models doing a good job or not the increasing level of sophistication needed to defend them is of concern. For many of us, a temperature stasis of 17 years is enough to suggest that the models are not as robust as some of their advocates maintain.
Droughts, famines, and heatwaves and much harder to quantify. The effects are devastating and impacts can span just a couple months or stretch to a decade or more. Some historical drought/ famines with loss of life include:
At any rate, their musings have nothing to do with the actual technical questions or the truth value of the energy conservation law or any other scientific question, for that matter.
Warmer winters have significant environmental and economic implications, and a wide range of research indicates that pests and plant diseases, usually killed back by sharp frosts, are likely to flourish. But very little research has been done on the cultural implications of climate change into the possibility, for example, that our notion of Christmas might have to shift.
Saleska, S.R., Didan, K., Huete, A.R. and da Rocha, H.R. 2007. Amazon forests green-up during 2005 drought. Science xpress : 10.1126/science.1146663. Background
The Transport Secretary, Philip Hammond, is seeking the opinion of the chief scientific adviser about whether the government should be planning for more severe winters in future.
The second disadvantage cannot be eliminated. Selecting one data set when 5 are available increase error. Period. There are some valid reasons for discounting available data. For example, if some data are known to be of poor quality or in error, one can justify leaving it out of an analysis. So, for example, had NASA GISS failed to correct the Y2K error recently discovered in their data, this might be good reason to leave it out of the analysis. However, if reasons are valid, the reasons can be stated up directly, and should be.
It was similar in the Soviet Union, he said. Who could doubt Marxist economics was the future? Everything else was in the dustbin. ( source )
Horn quite rightly points out that if so much money was being directed to skeptics, then there would have been more success in challenging the propaganda.
"Serious question: Is this just desperate eleventh-hour excuse-making or is she actually starting to believe it?"
The policy they propose "is an international system of emissions permits and fees for the use of fossil fuels." The authors propose that governments give businesses a certain number of permits. If a business needs more permits, it can purchase them. The authors suggest that the permits be sold at $10 per ton of carbon, which would translate into $6.50 per ton of coal and $1.40 per barrel of crude oil. The "user fee" would be set by international agreement. The authors argue that this is a sensible policy because it gives a clear economic incentive to reduce emissions. Businesses that reduce emissions sufficiently can sell their permits.
For ease of use and immunity from political meddling, the carbon tax is the clear winner.
More importantly, the 2008 PIC website disclosed donors' names and employment, along with the amount of their donations. The Federal Election Commission's deadline for disclosing this information was not until April, but the 2008 PIC did it in real time.
Finally, some of the richest ore bodies are found in the Amazon including iron, manganese, cassiterite, bauxite, gold, copper and nickel. And there is also great hydroelectric potential in the area with 45% of Brazil's hydro potential in the Amazon basin. (de Miranda, p.159)
Manufacturers will be particularly hard hit due to their reliance on low cost electricity and because of their dependence on natural gas as a raw material, as both electricity rates and natural gas prices increase. According to Nucor steel, a 1 cent increase in electricity rates costs the firm $120 million. These extra costs could endanger a million manufacturing jobs outside of the coal and utility industries. Utility MACT will also have a negative ripple effect. Just to bring up one example, in Avon Lake, Ohio, the closure of the local GenOn power plant will cost the school system 11% of its budget annually. Besides the 80 high-quality jobs lost at the plant and many indirect jobs lost in the community, the city will have fewer resources for its paramedic and firefighting services. This story will be replicated at communities across the country.
Heidelberg Professor Ulirke Ackermann Warns German Green Movement Is "Paternalistic, An Enviro-Dictatorship"
In the end, I see nothing that says CO2 caused global warming in the Asia data and I see little changed between v1 and v3. That increased slope in the Northern Hemisphere data can now only be carried by either North America or Europe or both. Asia didnt change.
I spent WAY too much time in business school and as a consultant deconstructing businesses and industries into processes and frameworks. It is interesting to see something we geeks think of as unstructured and creative (e.g. humor) deconstructed scientifically as well.
How Californias Green Policies Create Energy Poverty
The net temperature change over the period is zero. There has been no warming or cooling during US summers since the start of records in the 1890s. The 1930s were by far the hottest decade.
WITHIN the scientific community it has generally been accepted that as a continent, Antarctica, has been getting colder or at least not warming. Those who subscribe to the general consensus that climate change is driven by manmade carbon dioxide emissions, and that the world is generally getting warmer, have claimed this is not inconsistent with their greenhouse gas theory or the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) models. They have explained that Antarctica is a general exception to the global trend because of a loss of ozone in the polar stratosphere.
In April, our AEI colleague Newt Gingrich wrote an article called "We Can Have Green ConservatismAnd We Should" in which he discussed a number of values which he classified as green conservatism. Among these were the belief that economic growth and environmental health are compatible, and that positive environmental outcomes will be realized faster by working within market structures than via regulation and litigation. And Newt is not alonewhile many will argue that Governor Schwarzenegger has failed when it comes to adopting market-friendly means to environmental ends, he has certainly shown the political viability of embracing the values and the outcome goals of his environmental constituents.
Click for Tim Balls legal defense fund.
Here is an updated version of my 2000 prediction. My qualitative prediction was that extrapolation of past temperature and PDO patterns indicate global cooling for several decades. Quantifying that prediction has a lot of uncertainty. One approach is to look at the most recent periods of cooling and project those as possibilities (1) the 1945-1975cooling, (2) the 1880-1915 cooling, (3) the Dalton cooling (1790-1820), (4) the Maunder cooling (1650-1700). I appended the temperature record for the 1945-1975 cooling to the temperature curve beginning in 2000 to see what this might look like (see below). If the cooling turns out to be deeper, reconstructions of past temperatures suggest 0.3C cooler for the 1880-1915 cooling, about 0.7C for the Dalton cooling (square), and about 1.2C for the Maunder cooling (circle). We wont know until we get there which is most likely.
Heres the full relevant text from Thomas Jeffersons Notes on the State of Virginia, query VII (1781):
Recent research suggesting this includes A. T. De Laat, et al. 2004. "Industrial CO2 emissions as a proxy for anthropogenic influence on lower tropospheric temperature trends."
RealClimate Raises the Bar AGAINST Climate Models The Unbearable Nakedness of CLIMATE CHANGE
The ClimateGate affair the publication of e-mails and documents hacked or leaked from one of the worlds leading climate research institutions is being intensely debated on the web. But what does it imply for climate science? Here, Mike Hulme and Jerome Ravetz say it shows that we need a more concerted effort to explain and engage the public in understanding the processes and practices of science and scientists.
I shall elaborate on the presentation by Dr Christensen in Part 2, to be posted in the next day or two.
10 hours ago Australias $46 million Antarctic airstrip is melting, leaving the government scrambling to find a new air link to the frozen continent. The Wilkins ...
"Climate Astrology' Takes Hold: Japanese scientist Kanya Kusano, a Program Director and Group Leader for the Earth Simulator at the Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science & Technology, has publicly declared that man-made climate fear promotion is now akin to ?ancient astrology.?
A new report written by Dr David Whitehouse and published today by the Global Warming Policy Foundation concludes that there has been no statistically significant increase in annual global temperatures since 1997.
Morano: "Climate activists think we need more taxes & regulation to somehow stop bad weather...Mayor Bloomberg said we need to take immediate action to prevent bad weather. This has now reached the level of the Mayan Calendar and Nostradamus.
Ball briefly discusses some of the difficulties of validating a climate model, and points out that some of the problems are stated in the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4), and have not been resolved after 25 years of IPCC reports. Yet, Western governments are on a push to reach an agreement of carbon dioxide emissions, even though the leaders, who ignore critical elements of the reports, and their scientists have failed to complete the basic science. See links under Challenging the Orthodoxy.
This should make the policy calculation a simple one. Given that increasing the price of energy is among the most regressive regulatory/tax burdens, policymakers truly concerned about "catastrophic anthropogenic global warming" and also about human standards of living, should advocate the approach less harmful to seniors and the poor and simply propose higher energy taxes. Instead, however, policymakers tend to promote more complex, far more expensive approaches for appearance purposes, regardless of the ancillary costs of that decision.
Sierra Rayne performs a complex economic analysis/comparison on Northeastern Carbon trends. He hit on something.
Opponents of the development of a major supermarket at Maleny, in south-east Queenslands Sunshine Coast hinterland, are hailing extensive research they believe may sound the death knell for the development.
Background. From November 2 to 14, 1998, delegates from 160 nations gathered at the Fourth Conference of the Parties (COP-4) in Buenos Aires to debate the operational rules for implementing the Kyoto Protocol. The Protocol would require the United States to reduce its energy-related emissions 30-40 percent below levels otherwise projected for the years 2008-2012. Almost everything about the treaty is controversial including its scientific underpinnings, estimated costs, and political feasibility.
David Bier: Based on the number of words, the president is twice as committed to gun control as immigration reform. Might be good prediction of his efforts for the next term.
A recent NASA report throws the space agency into conflict with its climatologists after new NASA measurements prove that carbon dioxide acts as a coolant in Earth's atmosphere.
The observed warming trends at mid-latitudes, with no warming near the equator, suggest that warm water was distributed poleward by ocean currents. In the Pacific, that happens when El Nio events dominate, which was the case during this period, causing the excessive distribution of warm water toward those latitudes. Refer to this comparison of Pacific trends on a zonal-mean basis for the periods of 1944 to 1975 and 1976 to 2011. Its Figure 8-32 from my ebook Who Turned on the Heat? From 1944 to 1975, El Nino and La Nia events were more evenly matched, but slightly weighted toward La Nia. During that period, less warm water was released from the tropical Pacific by El Nios and distributed toward the poles. But from 1976-2011, El Nio events dominated, so more warm tropical waters were distributed to the mid-latitudes.
In the words of the authors, "the relationship between landslides and climate, namely more cold and humid conditions, has been known and described long ago, and is once again evidenced in this paper." In addition, their latest findings serve to strengthen the now-voluminous real-world evidence for the millennial-scale cycling of climate that has most recently ushered in the Modern Warm Period and its welcome respite from the "slip-sliding away" Swiss slopes of the Little Ice Age.
* Water is a precious resource. So, conservationists should smile at how little water fracking requires compared to other energy sources. According to the U.S. Energy Department and the Ground Water Protection Council, it typically takes three gallons of water to produce 1 million British thermal units of energy from deep-shale natural gas/fracking.
> >> >>sectors and Bank investments. A report which summarizes
Recently the Pentagonlapdogs at the Pentagon made the preposterous and poorly founded claim that warming was a national defense problem of major proportions.
A recent IHS Global Insight report documents that, in the United States alone, fracking has already created 1.7 million new direct and indirect jobs, with the total likely to rise to 3 million jobs over the next eight years. It's added $62 billion to federal and state treasuries, with that total expected to rise to $111 billion by 2020. And by 2035, it could inject over $5 trillion in cumulative capital expenditures into the economy, while generating over $2.5 trillion in cumulative additional government revenues.
After more than three decades of being told that the Earth was dangerously heating up by people like Al Gore and the UNs Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, there are more voices warning that the current cold cycle that will last, at a minimum, several decades.
To say that Marx must be turning in his grave would be to flatter Higgins, whose New Ageism hardly amounts to any substantial supposition. Whatever the usefulness of natural things like flowers, trees and rocks, they are only valuable in so far as they satisfy the needs and wants of human beings ? whether that involves cutting down trees for wood, picking flowers to decorate our homes, or climbing rocks to enjoy the view.
In looking at the unrealistic trends presented by the models, consider that climate models do not simulate the processes of El Nio and La Nia properly. See the discussion of Guilyardi et al (2009) here .
It shows general trends between model and observations reaching more or less the same end point, but with significant divergences along the way. Youd probably get a better feel for this by graphing a rolling average.
The ref 2 uppstller Abreu et al a model for how the interaction between gravity from the planets in the solar system causes a force moment on the sun. It postulates that there is an ellipsoidal shell in the sun, being massaged by this moment of force, and this affects the solar magnetflt. If the layer is a sfriskt shell has no torque sdan effect. Pongen years ago that the strength of torque reservoirs on television or several planets is on the line. I have not fully grasped the mechanics of Abreus model, but it seems beslktat that we get spring tide on earth (.lnk) No mnens and solar gravity interact. Abreu from peaks in periods from 88, 104, 150, 208 and 505 r, and concludes that there is a causal link between the planets moments on the sun and the observed magnetic activity on the solar surface. Observed intended in this case p from 9 to 400 r backwards in time, and bokfrt ldersbestmt frekomsten of the radioactive isotopes 10 Be and 14 C formed by the cosmic strlningen.
I reviewed the climate sensitivity estimates of the Fourth Assessment Report and noted that only Forster and Gregory 2006 was free of the influence of models. I then observed that once one had replaced the IPCC's fiddled figure for the Forster and Gregory estimate with the value those authors had actually calculated one could see that the range of estimates used in the the PAGE model (the one used by Stern) did not even include the range of Forster and Gregory.
Natural components account for <15% of warming since 1890. Claims that the sun has caused as much as 70% of recent warming presents fundamental puzzles. It requires that
owns the global monopoly of calibration of all CO2 measurements.
Additionally Dr. Christy??s testimony addressed the hundreds of years long natural climate variation of severe droughts in the Sierra Nevada mountains in California and the Rocky Mountain upper Colorado River basis. His testimony showed that the western U.S. will likely see increasing droughts in the coming years because of natural climate variation reflecting patterns long exhibited in the regional paleoclimate drought record as noted below from his testimony.